Tag Archives: NCAAF

Sports Betting Theory – Fading Public Bets

February 18th, 2016

One of many popular sports betting systems is the “contrarian method” where you go against whatever side the majority of the bettors are backing. The theory behind this betting system is that the public can be easily swayed by the media and tends to be wrong more often than not, so the more money being placed on the wrong side will move both lines and spreads making the opposite side the selection with clear value.

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Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Fiesta Bowl Free Pick 01/01/16

January 1st, 2016

The Ohio State Buckeyes are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers in this game because of their dominant win over the Michigan Wolverines in their season finale. I believe it’s too much respect as they should not be favored by nearly a touchdown against the Fighting Irish. I look at this as a very evenly-matched game, and I certainly question the motivation of the Buckeyes in a lesser bowl game after winning the National Championship last year. Of course they are going to get up for rival Michigan, but this is a different story.

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Betting Preview – Weekend Warriors Sept. 26-27

September 24th, 2015

In this series we will take a look at some of the marquee matchups and best bets for the upcoming weekend of College Football, NFL and Soccer. Featured games are Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks, TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders and others.

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Maryland Terrapins vs. Stanford Cardinal NCAAF Free Pick

December 30th, 2014

In another very contrary call, we will lineup with Maryland plus the generous points. The case for Stanford is clear. The Cardinal again fields one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing just 16 PPG on 4.2 defensive YPP.

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West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Texas A&M Aggies NCAAF Free Pick

December 29th, 2014

The Aggies got off to a surprising 5-0 start this season that raised the expectations well past what this team was capable of accomplishing. Texas A&M as a result was overvalued and disappointed down the stretch, going just 1-7 ATS over their last 8 games.

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Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks NCAAF Free Pick

December 29th, 2014

Texas is being undervalued here, largely due to a poor showing against TCU in its regular-season finale.

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UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers NCAAB Free Pick

December 27th, 2014

Minnesota is 10-2 and 8-0 at home but has played a weak schedule and will be looking ahead to playing some Big Ten (Purdue) teams later in the week. The Gophers do have some solid scorers as they have five players between 10 ppg and 14 ppg.

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Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Cincinnati Bearcats NCAAF Free Pick

December 27th, 2014

Well you have one thing going for you if you are backing VT in this game, Bud Fosters defense. The mystic has worn off of Hokies as both father time has caught up with Frank Beamer and the offense is outdated and depleted in talent for VT versus past years editions.

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Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. North Carolina Tar Heels NCAAF Free Pick

December 26th, 2014

I’m recommending a play on North Carolina minus the points on Friday. Neither defense performed well throughout the regular season, but UNC owns the better and more consistent offense and they have a new wrinkle on defense (I’ll get to it in a minute).

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NC State Wolfpack vs. UCF Knights NCAAF Free Pick

December 26th, 2014

Let’s try the defensive homer in this one against an ACC team, who may be a bit bloated following their 35-7 season-ending upset at North Carolina on November 29th. That means the Wolfpack finished the season at 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS on the road. QB Brissett is the real deal, leading the Wolfpack to a balanced 402 YPG and 30 PPG.

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Navy Midshipmen vs. San Diego State Aztecs NCAAF Free Pick

December 23rd, 2014

The Navy Midshipmen have really impressed me this season. Their 7-5 record just doesn’t do them much justice. Obviously five losses is a lot, but when you consider that all five of those losses came against bowl teams, it’s forgivable.

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Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Marshall Thundering Herd NCAAF Free Pick

December 23rd, 2014

I feel the NIU Huskies are a very confident underdog as they head into their game against the Thundering Herd, and I think NIU will make a game of it today and stay inside this big point spread.

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BYU Cougars vs. Memphis Tigers NCAAF Free Pick

December 22nd, 2014

The Memphis Tigers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They went 9-3 straight up this year and 7-5 against the spread to earn a share of first place in the American Athletic Conference with a 7-1 AAC record. While the nine wins are impressive, some of the losses they have had this year are equally encouraging.

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UTEP Miners vs. Utah State Aggies NCAAF Free Pick

December 20th, 2014

New Mexico Bowl game between UTEP and Utah State. Normally I would back Utah State a team that in years past has been dominating on defense but right now there is just something missing as their defense gave up 900 yards rushing and 8 TD’s over their last 4 games combined.

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Western Michigan Broncos vs. Air Force Falcons NCAAF Free Pick

December 20th, 2014

It’s been a difficult assignment trying to ascertain a major edge inside this Bowl game, but these two have key differentials that equally affect the bottom line indicating a dead even tie after four quarters!

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