Art Aronson’s NFL Line Watch Week 13
Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Game to bet now
Philadelphia at Seattle (+4)
It’s put-up-or-shut-up time for the Seahawks, who need their best performance of the season to take down the Eagles and remain viable in the NFC West. Seattle is 7-4 and a game back of the Rams, but the Seahawks have to travel across the country next week to take on a solid Jacksonville team.
First things first – can the Seahawks do anything about the Eagles, especially considering the Seattle is just 2-3 SU and only 1-4 ATS in home games this season?
This line opened at Seahawks +6, but is already at +4 after Seattle got the job done at San Francisco on Sunday. It’s doubtful that enough Seattle money will melt the line any further.
Game to wait on
New England at Buffalo (+9)
What to make of the Bills and the coaching staff? They throw Nathan Peterman to the wolves for no reason at all a few weeks ago, then five interceptions later give the car keys back to Tyrod Taylor, and Taylor leads the Bills over the Chiefs at Kansas City. No wonder local media is calling them the Unpredicta-Bills.
Whatever is happening, Buffalo is somehow still in the playoff hunt. Taylor seems no worse for the wear after his puzzling benching two weeks ago, but who knows? Problem is, Buffalo now has to deal with a 9-2 Patriots team that is focused and blowing out opponents at an alarming rate.
The Bills’ best shot in this one is if they catch the Pats looking ahead to the Week 15 AFC Game of the Year at Pittsburgh. Might be worth hanging on for a bit to see if early-week betting moves the line a half-point either way.
Total to watch
Kansas City at New York Jets (43.5)
The number has been bet down from 44, based no doubt on Kansas City’s horrendous offense over the past two weeks.
The Chiefs were held without a touchdown in their overtime loss to the Giants, then piggy-backed that with a 16-10 loss at home to Buffalo in which KC rushed for only 55 yards.
The Chiefs have now lost three in a row and five of their last six, and after a 5-0 start, winning the still-winnable AFC West might be their only path to the playoffs.
The Jets were able to hang with Carolina by limiting turnovers (only one), but no one expects Josh McCown to throw for more than 300 yards a second straight week.