Best Parlay Strategy for Sports Bettors
One of the most popular forms of sports wagering out there is parlay betting. With parlays, bettors can combine two or more point spreads, totals, or moneylines to earn a higher payout. That is of course if all their picks where to win; the catch is that if you lose just one pick, you'll lose it all.
Recreational sports bettors enjoy parlays for their big potential returns. Sportsbooks meanwhile love parlays because they force bettors to be perfect. A 2-1 day would be a solid day of profits for any bettor, but if all his picks were in a parlay that would still account for a losing day.
The average odds at most sportsbooks for parlays with totals and spreads are +260 for 2-team parlays and +600 for 3-team parlays. For moneyline parlays the price will vary depending on the price of the picks included in the parlay.
It is hard enough to win one straight bet, so despite the increased payouts as a rule of thumb parlays usually aren’t worth the risk long term.
One exception to the rule is to use parlays when you see semi-correlation.
What Are Correlated Parlays
An example of a correlated parlay could be taking a team to win both the first half of a game and the whole game. True correlated parlays won’t be accepted by sportsbooks, but most will accept wager on a the moneyline or the spread and the over/under in the same game. also known as semi-correlated parlays.
Semi-correlated parlays should be used when you expect the outcome of one of the legs in the parlay to benefit the other. That can be backing a big underdog and the under if you believe that they’re defense will keep it a close game, or the favorite and the over in what could be a blowout win.
An example would be if the total in a game is 45 and one team is favored by 15 points then it stands to reason that if the favorite covers the spread there is a better than average chance that the game will go over as well. Those two outcomes would be considered correlated.