Ben Burns – Sports Handicapper

These teams each played yesterday. Both are now playing their third game in four days. That may lead to some tired legs and sloppy defense. Five of the past six meetings had O/U lines of six or higher. We're getting value with a lower number here. The last meeting finished with a final score of 4-3 and the last three meetings averaged 6.67 goals. Consider the Over. 

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I'm playing on LA. Of course, I respect the Braves. They've had a great run and I won with them last night. Of course, I respect Anderson. He's been superb in the postseason and I won (a free play) with him in his last start. The Dodgers have been getting it done all year though and they've got Scherzer on the mound. There was talk of "Mad Max" going in Game 1 but after he closed out Game 5 against SF, they pushed him back until today. I fully expect him to do his thing. Anderson faced the Dodgers once this season. It didn't go too well. LA won by a 9-5 score. Anderson gave up four runs in 4 1/3 innings. On the other hand, Scherzer's teams (Wash + LA) were 2-0 in his 2021 starts against Atlanta. I say LA bounces back. 

I'm playing on Tottenham/Newcastle OVER 2.5 goals. While we have to lay a little extra juice to play on the 'over 2.5,' I feel that it will prove worthwhile to do so. This one should see AT LEAST three goals, very likely more. Knowing this is a chance for the offense to "get healthy," Tottenham will be excited to face a Newcastle squad which has conceded 16 goals through seven league matches, an average of more than two per game. In fact, the 16 goals allowed by the Magpies is tied with Norwich City for the most allowed. Norwich has played an extra game though, so it's Newcastle which is allowing the most goals per game in the entire league. Tottenham has conceded 10 of its own, through just six games. Not entirely stingy, either. The last meeting had a score of 2-2. Expect another relatively high-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Seattle OVER the total. With Wilson out, we're working with a very low O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Despite facing a Denver defense which came in playing well, Rothlisberger got going a bit last week.  He'd finish with 253 passing yards (2 TD's, 0 INT's) and a season-high 120.9 passer rating. Now, he faces a Seattle defense which allows 10 extra points a game than does Denver. (Broncos allow 15.2 ppg. Seahawks allow 25.2 ppg.) In fact, while the Broncos rank #3 in terms of total yards allowed per game, the Hawks rank last in the entire NFL in that category. They're giving up a whopping 450.8 ypg. Note that Big Ben has 30 TDs (12 INTS) in 12 SNF starts. Prior to his interception at the end, Geno Smith actually looked really good for Seattle. He's a veteran who knows that this is his chance to show people that he's better than they realize. Pete Carroll won't stop being aggressive. The last meeting between these teams had 54 points. The last one here in Seattle had 69. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. The Cowboys are playing well and have a perfect 5-0 ATS record out of the gate. That has many jumping on the bandwagon. After all, this is "America's Team" that we're talking about. Winning at Foxboro isn't easy though and the Cowboys' hot start has led to them laying a fairly big number. I believe that's asking too much. Note that both Dallas road games have been decided by a field goal or less. Meanwhile, two of New England's three losses were also by three or fewer points. The Pats are off a road win and they lost by only two points to Brady and the defending champs in their previous game. With an O/U line currently at 50.5, note that the Pats are a dominating 25-8-1 ATS (31-3 SU) their last 34, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or higher. In what may well be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Arizona checks in with an perfect record. The Cardinals have indeed been playing well. Playing at home, the Browns are favored for good reason though. The Browns have only played two home games and they won both by double-digits. The 49'ers gave the Cards all they could handle last week. Arizona was at home and was against a team which was playing without its #1 QB. I had a big play on the 'under' so I was happy that the Cards did play excellent defense. The offense managed only 17 points though. Now, they're on the road against a far more formidable opponent. This will already be the Cards' fourth road game through the first six weeks. That's a very tough schedule. While they've obviously done a great job, I believe it'll catch up to them here. The Browns are already 2-0 ATS when the O/U line was 49.5 or higher. Going back further finds them at 5-2 ATS their last seven in that situation and 10-5 ATS their last 15. While both teams are dealing with some injuries, the cards are also dealing with some Covid issues. Look for the Browns to hand them their first loss, picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. This is a great opportunity for the Jags to break through and win a game. They're going to be extremely motivated and I like their chances of doing so. Miami hasn't played well. The Dolphins have been outscored 154-79. (That's a little worse than the 152-93 margin which the Jags have been outscored by.) The Dolphins' chances of making the playoffs are arguably no better than Jacksonville's. They're 1-4 behind the 4-1 Bills in the division while Jax is 0-5 behind 3-2 Tennessee.) That said, the likelihood of either team making the playoffs is already extremely slim. That being the case and with this game being played in London, I believe the team which wants it more is going to have an advantage. Surely, the Jags want to snap their skid. The fact that they've played here regularly over the years should work in their favor. This isn't new. At least, not for all of them. Lawrence has been making progress and has cut down on turnovers the past two games. The Dolphins only win of the season was by a 17-16 score. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on Houston/Indianapolis UNDER the total. I won with the Colts last week. Their defense was great to begin the game but Jackson and the Ravens ultimately got rolling. They're facing a far less dangerous offense this week though and they very likely aren't going to need to score as many in order to win. I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams in this one and that'll help to keep the clock moving. (Both teams rank in the top 15 in terms of rushing attempts per game.) The Colts rank just 21st in the league in terms of ppg. The Texans are worse. They rank 29th, with 17.8 ppg. They scored 0 points in their last road game. Five of the past six meetings have fallen below the total. Look for this one to do the same.