Bryan Power – Sports Handicapper

8* Troy (10:15 ET): Finally, a chance to win late night on College Football Saturday! Both Troy and BYU enter this second game of the season off blowout victories. BYU’s came all the way back on September 7th when they humiliated Navy 55-3 in Annapolis. Troy also went on the road for its opener and they came away with a 47-14 win over Middle Tennessee. That one made me happy as I laid the modest spread with the Trojans. Now that they’re underdogs here, by two touchdowns, I like them even more!

The fact BYU has been off for 19 days is a disadvantage in my book. The reason for the long layoff should be obvious as the Cougars were yet another team dealing with COVID-19. As many as 10 players tested positive while 22 had to go into quarantine. This obviously creates an issue for practicing as some had to be cancelled while others saw players broken up into small groups of 10.  As impressive as the win over Navy was, BYU can’t possibly duplicate that kind of performance under the current circumstances. Another bad sign is the fact BYU is just 1-7 ATS the last eight times it has been favored. 

Troy looked even better than expected against Middle Tennessee, doubling the opposition in total yardage. As noted in last week’s analysis, the Trojans were a lot better LY than their 5-7 SU record would seem to indicate. All five wins were by at least three touchdowns while three of the seven losses were one-score games. The only teams they struggled against were Missouri (SEC team) and then the two that played for the SBC Title (App State, Louisiana). QB Gunnar Watson has his top SEVEN pass catchers back from 2019 and this offense was actually 18th in the country at 458 YPG last season. 8* Troy

8* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): The White Sox, one of the real breakout teams this year in MLB, have picked a BAD time to play their worst baseball of the season. Granted, they have already clinched a playoff berth. But their range of possible seeding has gotten very wide, thanks to a six-game losing streak. They could be as high as the #2 seed if they were to win their division, a race which they currently trail by 1 game. But because of this losing skid, they could fall as low as the #7 seed if they were to finish behind both the Twins and Indians in the AL Central.

First things first, the White Sox just need to win a game. I like their chances tonight behind Dane Dunning, who has a 5-1 team start record to go along with a 3.19 ERA and 1.032 WHIP. While Dunning is off his worst start to date, one in which he allowed 4 runs in a 7-4 loss at Cleveland, he still has a 2.65 ERA and 0.941 WHIP his L3 starts. He’s also unbeaten at home w/ a 0.735 WHIP. 

A 10-0 loss last night to the Cubs was a total embarrassment for the White Sox. Consider that the Cubs had been held to three runs or fewer in eight of their previous nine games, including 1 or 0 five times. The Cubs have not technically clinched the NL Central, but it’s extremely unlikely that they wouldn’t get the pennant given their current lead is at three games. The White Sox still have the best run differential in the American League (+58) and scored eight times off Jon Lester (Saturday’s starter for Cubs) in just 3 ⅔ innings back on August 21st. 8* Chi White Sox

8* Duke (4:00 ET): The Blue Devils are 0-2, but that’s actually quite understandable. They opened the season at Notre Dame, whom they played tough in a 27-13 loss (was 17-13 heading into the 4Q). Last week’s 26-6 home loss to Boston College looks bad, and I was certainly glad it happened (as I had B.C.), but that result can directly be attributed to the fact Duke turned the ball over FIVE times. Total yardage was basically even. Four of the five turnovers took place in the red zone where the Blue Devils have now scored just one TD in seven trips this season!

Having not played a game yet, Virginia is a bit of an “unknown” coming into this afternoon. But what we do know is they’ll definitely miss QB Bryce Perkins, who graduated and was essentially the Hoos’ entire offense last season. You have to think that UVA is at a severe disadvantage here facing a team that’s already played twice, even if the game is at home and they are 5-0 SU/ATS the L5 seasons vs. the Blue Devils.

That recent head to head record and what has transpired the L2 wks will certainly have Duke motivated this week. Under HC David Cutcliffe, this team has been tremendous as an underdog, going 11-5 ATS L16 tries. All those turnovers last week couldn’t have happened at a worse time as they turned what could have been a SU win into a 20-point loss. The defensive front has looked good in both games against superior O-lines than what they’ll see here. 8* Duke

8* West Virginia (3:30 ET): I’m proud to say I was a little “ahead of the curve” when it came to fading Oklahoma State, having already done so last week when they could barely beat Tulsa. Now losing QB Spencer Sanders to injury early on didn’t help. But the fact the Pokes needed to outscore the Golden Hurricane 13-0 in the 4Q last week, just to get a SU win, doesn’t bode well as they are set to begin conference play. Sanders could return here, despite being in a walking boot earlier this week, but clearly wouldn’t be at full strength. 

With the Sanders injury, WVU has to smell “blood in the water.” The Mountaineers were 56-10 winners in their opener (vs. FCS Eastern Kentucky) and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. It’s a matchup they’ve likely had “circled” in Morgantown for awhile. Including LY’s 20-13 loss, WVU has lost five in a row to the Cowboys, also going 0-4-1 ATS. But three of those losses were by seven points or less. The Mountaineers are undeniably better in HC Neal Brown’s 2nd season.

Oklahoma State won last week because its defense was able to limit Tulsa to 278 total yards and 0 for 12 on third down. As you might suspect, WVU has a much more prolific offense than Tulsa. Keep in mind that Tulsa was dealing with several key absences last week themselves, most notably at the RB position. The fact OSU has four new starters on the offensive line this year is a big deal. WVU’s defensive front should be able to take full advantage of that. Big statement game for the underdog. 8* West Virginia

8* Tulane (2:30 ET): Two games in and it would be fair to say Tulane’s season has been defined by “comebacks.” One went their way, a 27-24 win over South Alabama in the opener where the Green Wave battled back from an early 24-6 deficit. But then last week saw them lose by the same 27-24 score to Navy after blowing their own 24-0 lead. There’s basically two ways this next game can go for Willie Fritz’s team: either there’s a hangover or they come out extra motivated. I’m betting on the latter. 

Southern Mississippi’s season also started in Mobile against South Alabama. Only they lost outright, as a 12-point favorite, 32-21. Following that loss, (now former) HC Jay Hopson abruptly resigned! Talk about an auspicious way to start your season! Co-OC Scott Walden is now the interim coach in Hattiesburg and I told you that he was stepping into a near-impossible situation vs. Louisiana Tech. Somehow, the Golden Eagles were still favored to win, so I faded and sure enough La Tech pulled the outright upset with the go-ahead TD in the final minute.

Oddsmakers have at least “learned their lesson” w/ USM this week by not favoring them. But still, this line ought to be closer to a full TD. Having started 0-2 and unexpectedly losing their HC, the Golden Eagles remain in a very fragile position. While this is USM’s third straight home game and Tulane hasn’t been that great on the road, note South Alabama came here and won when they hadn’t previously beaten a FBS team on the road since 2017! Tulane also holds a convincing 30-13 win over Southern Miss in LY’s Armed Forces Bowl.  8* Tulane

10* Texas (3:30 ET): While they were ultimately victorious, Texas Tech’s performance in the season opener could hardly be called “good.” They gave up 600 yards to Houston Baptist, which is a FCS school and not a very good one at that. Even more frightening is that the Red Raiders needed to prevent a 2-pt conversion w/ 3:23 left to hold on for the 35-33 victory. Now, the Lubbock faithful will point to the fact that over a dozen players missed the game due to COVID-19. Still, I don’t think that excuses the poor performance. 

There was nothing poor about the way Texas opened its season. In what HC Tom Herman called a “scrimmage,” the Longhorns blasted UTEP 59-3 as a 45-point favorite. QB Sam Ehlinger threw for 426 yards and five touchdowns -- in the first half! Texas, now ranked 8th in the country, had nearly 700 yards of total offense and didn’t even try in the second half. You can imagine how they have to be licking their chops going against a defense that just gave up 600 yards to a FCS school. Texas is already 8-2 ATS the L10 meetings vs. TT. 

Last year’s matchup in Austin saw the Horns win 49-24 as a nine-point favorite. They are an even stronger team in 2020, thus it’s not surprising to see the line significantly higher even though this game is being played on the road. The last two times they’ve played, Texas has scored a total of 90 points on Texas Tech. I’ve got this line right around 24 points, so even after the line move we’re still getting plenty of value. This is a really good team that should be able to “name the score” Saturday afternoon. 10* Texas

9* Baylor (7:30 ET): The previous two years saw Baylor improve it’s win total from 1 to 7 to 11. That was a remarkable coaching effort from Matt Rhule, which is why he’s now in the NFL The Dave Aranda era is now set to begin in Waco and the former Wisconsin & LSU defensive coordinator inherits a squad that virtually everyone believes will regress in 2020. Fortunately for Aranda, he’s opening up against Kansas, the bottom-feeder of the Big 12 that just lost at home to Coastal Carolina (by 15 pts!) two weeks ago. 

Baylor has beaten Kansas 10 straight times, averaging 576.7 YPG in the process. Last year, it was 61-6 in Lawrence and Bears were “only” a 14-point favorite in that one, if you can believe it. While there are a lot of unknowns right now with this team, what we do know is that Kansas remains very bad. The Jayhawks were -3 in turnovers vs. Coastal Carolina, but what you really need to know is they were down 28-0 (at home) in the final minute of the first half! Over the L10 years, KU is just 6-83 SU in conference play, never winning more than one game in any season. 

This is Baylor’s third attempt at starting their season. COVID-19 has gotten in the way both times so far, but Aranda said four days ago that those issues were behind the team. The Bears really could not have asked for a better opponent. Maybe it’s the fact they’ve had to postpone twice, or the unknown factor of a new coaching staff, but this line opened WAY too low IMO. That it’s actually been bet DOWN is pure lunacy as Kansas isn’t going to win a conference game all season. 9* Baylor

8* TCU (1:30 ET): TCU’s season was supposed to begin on September 11th against SMU, but that had to be scrapped because of positive coronavirus tests. Instead, they’ll now open the season with a game against Big XII rival Iowa State. This is a big revenge spot for the Horned Frogs, who lost 49-24 in Ames last season. That was with ISU getting a big game from its QB Brock Purdy and TCU being in the midst of a down season. The Horned Frogs project to be a lot better this year and now the game is in Fort Worth. 

Iowa State already played a game and it didn’t go as planned. Coming in as the #23 ranked team in the country, they lost at home to Louisiana (who is now #19 in the country), 31-14 as 13-pt favorites. It’s not that the Cyclones were beaten that badly ‘in the boxscore.’ (They actually outgained LA 303-272). But two turnovers really hurt and Purdy had a shockingly poor game with just 180 total yards (35 rushing). He completed less than 50% of his pass attempts. ISU is now 0-5-1 ATS its L6 games as a favorite.

TCU was just 5-7 SU last season and lost six of its final eight games. It was their worst season (record-wise) since 2013 (went 4-8 SU). They bounced back the next year to go 12-1 SU! HC Gary Patterson typically does a very good job and while he’s got a bit of a question mark at QB right now (both Downing and Duggan expected to play), he’s got a defense that should certainly overwhelm the ISU receivers like Louisiana did (if not more so!). TCU has not lost at home to Iowa State since 2012. Take the points. 8* TCU

8* Atalanta (9:00 AM ET): The big story coming into this Serie A season is whether or not Juventus can continue it’s long stretch of dominance in this league. Last year saw the i Bianconeri capture their ninth consecutive title, but the reality is they were not the best team. I’d say BOTH Internazionale and Atalanta were better and that’s confirmed by the goal differential column where our side for Saturday was #1 in the table at +50. This is an aggressive side that had an early “cold spell” last season. I don’t think it will happen again. 

Of all the clubs that want to fancy themselves as better than Juventus, Torino definitely is not one of them. They finished 16th last season, their lowest position in the table since being relegated in 2008-09. They lost 20 of 38 matches in 2019-20 and started this campaign w/ a 1-0 loss to Fiorentina, a side nowhere near as talented as the one they’ll face here on Saturday. While Torino was fairly active in the transfer market, they won’t have summer arrival Ricardo Rodriguez due to a hip problem. 

Atalanta has yet to open its Serie A campaign. They were given last week off due to their involvement in the Champions League (where they reached the quarterfinals before losing to eventual champs PSG). The Black & Blues did win all four friendlies this summer, so they’re in fine form. I suppose there’s always the danger of taking Torino too lightly, but I don’t think that’ll happen. This is a strong side that scored 98 goals last season, which was 17 more than the next highest-scoring side. It was more than double the number of goals scored by Torino! 8* Atalanta