Bryan Power – Sports Handicapper

10* Texas (4:05 ET): Well, this is "it" for the Rangers. We know that it's their final chance to avoid what would be a second sweep at the hands of the division rival A's, in less than a month's time. Furthermore, after losing the last two days (1-0 last night), their Wild Card hopes are now dwindling as well. Minnesota won again yday, so that means the Rangers are 4.5 games back w/ only eight more to play. I'm still a believer in the revenge angle though and not a believer in Oakland, whose current six-game win streak happens to be their longest of the entire season. As I said yday, there's an irony here w/ this Texas team as their run differential this year (+20) is greater than last year's (+8) when they won 95 games and homefield advantage in the American League playoffs! They did still cash for me on the run line yday, but today I'll call for an "outright" win.

The Rangers have scored only one run off A's pitching in two games, so that's something that clearly needs to change Sunday. Perhaps facing the struggling Jharel Cotton will help. Today's starter for the A's comes in w a 9.00 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his L3 starts. That's obviously not good, yet the A's have still managed to win the last two times he's taken the mound, as +155 and +170 dogs against Houston and Boston respectively. But at home this year, Cotton hasn't been very good w/ a 7.66 ERA and 1.608 WHIP. These are obviously some pretty bad numbers we're talking about here. For the year, the ERA is 5.88 and the WHIP is 1.484. Like I said earlier, the current A's win streak is also the longest of the season. This is a team that has spent most of the year at the bottom of the American League standings. While I'll tip my cap for what they've done the L2 days, note the other four victories came against the Phillies and Tigers. 

Martin Perez just might be the right guy to have on the mound today for Texas. He comes in having gone 7-1 w/ a 3.14 ERA his L9 outings (8-1 TSR). Last time out, he allowed just one run on four hits in a revenge spot against the Mariners. He's allowed 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts. Oakland is only 17-24 against southpaw starters in 2017. Bottom line is that this is a MUST win for the road team. That doesn't necessarily mean they HAVE to win, but I think they WILL. 10* Texas

8* Over Ravens/Jaguars (9:30 AM ET): Our first London game of the season and of course the Jaguars are involved. This will be their fifth all-time appearance in the UK and they've won and covered the last two. This is also a much better Jags team than past editions. They opened the season w/ a 27-9 drubbing of Houston (I had them there), but laid an egg last week at home against Tennessee, losing 37-16 (dominated in the 2nd half). But this will be a stiff test going up against a 2-0 Baltimore team that's allowed only 10 pts on the year while forcing 10 turnovers. I'm not going to make a call on the side here, but I do like the game to go Over the relatively low total even though the L5 head to head meetings have all stayed Under. Like I said earlier, Jacksonville is better this year.

The big story here for the Ravens is that they are now w/o their best offensive lineman, Marshall Yanda. While this figures to have an adverse effect on both the running game and protecting Joe Flacco, I expect them to still be able to move the ball. Jacksonville's defense gave up nearly 400 total yards LW against Tennessee. The turnover issue could also be big here for the Ravens defense going against Blake Bortles. Bortles, who leads the league in interceptions the L3 seasons, is going up against the defense that has forced the most turnovers in the league to this point. So, like the Titans last week, don't be surprised if the Ravens get set up on a short field and take advantage.

This would be the fourth year in a row these teams have played and the O/U line is several points lower than any of the previous three matchups. Last year, the Ravens won a 19-17 game in Jacksonville (also in Week 3!) on the strength of four Justin Tucker field goals. Jacksonville had two drives in Baltimore territory end w/ Bortles' interceptions plus another w/ a missed field goal. While Cleveland and Cincinnati found little to no success against the Ravens defense, that was w/ a rookie QB and an inept offense that's already fired its coordinator. The Jags bring the strongest offense Baltimore will have faced to date. Offenses are struggling across this league, but you can "throw the numbers out" in an environment such as this where at least the Ravens are unfamiliar. This is a really low total and I think the teams will score enough to go Over. 8* Over Ravens/Jaguars

8* Cincinnati (4:25 ET): The Bengals come into Wk 3 w/ the dubious distinction of not having scored a single TD in their first two games, both of which were at home. The last time that happened was 1939! Therefore, it's not a surprise to see them receiving little to no support here, especially since they're up against a team that's long been loved by the public, Green Bay. But might this number now be too high? Prior to them losing last Thursday (13-9 to Houston), this line was set to be around a touchdown. Anything over says "value" to me, especially considering Green Bay lost as well last week, 34-23 down in Atlanta. The expectation is that they'll bounce back, but Cinci has had more time to prepare and is the more desperate team to boot. Take the points.

I was on GB (as a dog) last week. In retrospect, that was a misread as they were w/o both starting tackles, which obviously made Aaron Rodgers' job a lot more difficult. Still though, the Pack put up 23 points. It was the defense that struggled mightily. Now, you don't have to tell me that Cinci is not Atlanta, but they do have a lot of talent at the skill positions. I'll repeat something I said last week and that's I'd like to start see more of Joe Mixon running the ball. Though he fumbled last week, John Ross is another rookie I'd like to see used more here. Now TE Tyler Eifert is out. But Andy Dalton still has AJ Green to throw to. Green Bay is a little lucky not to be 0-2 SU themselves coming into this week. Their Week 1 win was predicated on a Seattle pick-six that was called back plus a key turnover (by the Seahawks) which set the Pack up inside the 5-yd line. 

Historically, this is a great spot to back the underdog. Teams that are 0-2 ATS and getting less than 50% of total bets are 26-15 ATS since 2003. Moreover, the Bengals are 5-1 SU and ATS the previous two seasons when off B2B SU losses. So they typically respond in this scenario. Usually, when a team fails to cover in a primetime game, the public is against them the following week. But because it's the Packers and they're at home against a struggling opponent, that is not the case here. All this has conspired to giving us a ton of value on a desperate underdog that will have to go "all out" so that their season isn't rendered "irrelevant" after just three weeks. The Bengals are better than they've shown so far and should be able to stick within the number. (They're also 10-5 SU/ATS on the road the L2 seasons!) 8* Cincinnati

10* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): Oh, those Chargers. They are now 0-2 SU on the young year, having lost both games on the final play. Each time it was a missed FG by rookie kicker Younghoe Koo. Week 1, Koo actually appeared to have tied the game w/ Denver, but the Broncos called timeout first. His next attempt was blocked. Last week in Miami saw the Chargers blow a 17-10 lead, but down 19-17 they moved into FG range for Koo, only for him to miss again. Whether in San Diego or LA, this is an all-too familiar pattern for the Bolts, who are now a league worst 2-9 SU in games decided by a field goal or less since 2015 and 4-11 SU in one-score games since the start of last year including coming out on the wrong end of 10 of the last 11! In the name of Dan Fouts, will somebody please stop this madness? This team is better than this, even if their new "fans" in Los Angeles don't really want them. 

I'm not ashamed to admit that I had the Chargers as one of the most improved teams in the league coming into the season. It's because, eventually, their horrible luck in close games HAS to change. Throw in the fact that they are an ugly 0-6 SU the L3 seasons vs. the Chiefs (three losses by TD or less) and I'm "all in" on this "progression to the mean" philosophy. The offense enters this game healthy as QB Philip Rivers (poor guy!) has a full compliment of skill position players. Last year saw the Chargers jump out to a 24-3 lead on the Chiefs here at home, only for WR Keenan Allen to tear his ACL, and they lost in overtime, 33-27. Rivers played well last week against Miami, completing 31 of 39 passes for 331 yards. Allen was destroying Cheifs CB Marcus Peters in LY's series opener before the ACL tear and I believe can do it again.

Right now, Kansas City is the "toast" of the league as they're 2-0 SU/ATS including that shocking win over the Patriots on Opening Night. But it should be noted they were outgained last week at home by Philadelphia. While that's a byproduct of a late Eagles TD drive that ultimately meant nothing, it was a tough game they played against the Eagles. They've been tooth and nail with both opponents going into the fourth quarter, which is the last thing the Chargers want to hear, based on the two teams' records. But, again, eventually these things do work out and regress to the mean. I'm not giving up hope that this Chargers team can turn things around as they're certainly better than their record, something you could also say in 2016. Protecting the ball will be key (Chiefs have the league's best TO margin L3 seasons), but LA will be able to move the ball in this game. Last week, Philadelphia had 27 first downs to KC's 16. Let's just hope and pray that if this game isn't decided until late, things FINALLY go the Chargers' way. 10* LA Chargers

8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): The Giants are a disappointing 0-2 SU and ATS and coming off a Monday night loss (at home) to the Lions. An offense that quite frankly wasn't very good last season - with or without Odell Beckham Jr - continues to stink as it's now eight straight games being held under 20 points. That threshold is key for an Eagles team that is 8-0 SU in the Carson Wentz era (which began last year) when holding the opponent below 20 pts. Conversely, they are 0-10 SU when allowing 20+ pts after losing LW, 27-20 at Kansas City. So, can a Giants team that's managed only 13 pts in two games get to 20 this week? Maybe or maybe not, but the bottom line here is I think the points are generous here and if nothing else, adding that in will get the G-Men close enough.

The Giants have struggled in recent years against the Eagles, mainly due to a disadvantage in the trenches. I admit, that on paper, their offensive line against the Eagles' defensive line looks to be a mismatch that's not in their favor. But the Philly secondary is banged up right now and that's where I'm hoping Eli Manning, OBJ and the rest of the Giants' passing attack can take advantage. Four DB's missed practice on Wednesday, most notably star corner Ronald Darby, who was acquired in the offseason. There's a chance that all four injured DB's, a list that also includes CB Jaylen Watkins and safeties Rodney McCloud and Corey Graham could miss this game. In other words, I would not be shocked if this was a "coming out party" of sorts for Manning, who remember did not have OBJ in Wk 1. It would also be nice if Brandon Marshall could hold onto the ball. 

There's no real issue w/ the Giants defense IMO. One of the best in the league last year, I did expect them to take a bit of a step back here in 2017, but they've allowed just 43 points in two games. Maintaining such an average would certainly allow them to stay within the number here. Remember that Philly trailed 27-13 last week before scoring a garbage time TD. This team (the Eagles) have not fared well in games decided by seven points or less w/ Wentz at the helm, going an ugly 1-7 SU including last week. I expect a close game here, especially w/ the Giants in desperation mode (can't afford to drop to 0-3) and trying to erase an ugly 1-5 SU and ATS mark against the Eagles the L3 seasons. Take the points as 0-2 ATS teams on the road are 26-15 ATS since 2003 if the public is fading them (less than 50% bets). Plus, teams playing their home opener in Wk 3 are just 12-26-2 ATS since '03. 8* NY Giants

8* Chicago (1:00 ET): Public sentiment figures to be completely one-sided heading into this Week 3 matchup. At home, the Steelers took care of business last week, beating the Sam Bradford-less Vikings 26-9 as eight-point chalk. Meanwhile, the Bears were embarrassed on the road, losing 29-7 to Tampa Bay. The Steelers are 2-0 while the Bears are 0-2, but the pointspread is called "the great equalizer" for a reason and in this case, it's rather sizable. As discussed when I played against Pittsburgh back in Week 1 (at Cleveland), this price range has not suited them well during the Mike Tomlin era. That non-cover two weeks ago leaves them at 3-9 ATS as a road favorite of more than a touchdown under Tomlin. Throw in the fact that road favorites of 7 pts or more, no matter the team, have covered at just a 44% ATS rate since '03 and I'm taking the points.

Though dominated on the scoreboard last week, Chicago was actually pretty even in total yards vs. Tampa Bay (310-311). The problem was four turnovers, one of them a pick-six by QB Mike Glennon. Predictably, the Bears fanbase is calling for the rookie Mitchell Trubisky to take Glennon's place. But while Glennon didn't necessarily play well last week, he did complete 31 of 45 passes for 301 yards. An issue he is facing is that his receivers aren't very good (Markus Wheaton could debut this wk). Therefore, I'd like to see more of the Bears' ground game like in Week 1 when they went for 125 yds on 19 carries. Playing from behind almost the whole way last week negated the Bears' ability to run the ball. Remember this team did cover for me in Wk 1 against the defending NFC Champion Falcons. They're now 5-1 ATS as home dog of 3.5 to 7 pts. I thought this was a team that would improve in '17, so it's time to get going.

Under Tomlin, the Steelers are known to drop a road game that they shouldn't, almost on a yearly basis. Last year, there was a 34-3 stinker at Philadelphia (Week 3!) and a 30-15 loss at Miami, both coming when favored. I wouldn't be shocked if this is 2017's "egg." Note that the Black & Gold have not started a season 3-0 SU since 2010. Thus far, they've faced Cleveland (who started a rookie QB) and Minnesota (who started Case Keenum). So the defense hasn't really been tested. Were it not for a blocked punt returned for a TD in Wk 1, they may not have even beaten the Browns. Baltimore is on deck, so you could qualify this game as a "look ahead." Meanwhile, there's no looking ahead for the Bears, who have Green Bay on deck. A loss here and an 0-4 start is a distinct possibility. It's desperation time in the Windy City. 8* Chicago

8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Almost universally predicted to be the worst team in the league, you could say things are going "according to script" for the Jets. Not only are they 0-2 straight up, they are 0-2 ATS, having lost their first two games by a combined 34 points. Last week was a 45-20 loss out in Oakland, so public sentiment figures to be even lower than normal, which is saying something. Miami is 1-0 (1st game postponed due to Hurricane Irma) as they were a lucky winner last week in Los Angeles. Three consecutive field goals in the 2nd half, the final one w/ just over a minute to go, rallied them back from a touchdown deficit and the Chargers (of course!) missed a potential GW field goal themselves as time expired. Miami is a team that I predicted would regress in 2017. Even against the Jets, I don't trust them in this lofty price range. 

  For years, taking the Jets against the Dolphins was smart move. Going into last year, they were on a 36-15-3 ATS run against their AFC East rival. But they got swept in 2017, including a 21-pt loss at home. But that blowout loss occurred late in the year when the season - for all intents and purposes - was over for New York. They lost by only four in the first meeting. Note that the Dolphins were favored only FIVE times last season (twice against Jets). They were a clear overachiever in making the postseason in Adam Gase's first season. There was a tremendous amt of good fortune that went their way, namely an 8-2 SU record in games decided by seven points or less. Doesn't the proverbial "worm" have to turn this year? 

Twice last year, the Dolphins were favored by a TD or more. They pushed against San Francisco and failed to cover against Cleveland, needing OT just to pull out the SU win. Both of those games were at home as well. Over the last decade, they've been a road favorite of six or more points just three times. While they won all three games straight up, they failed failed to cover twice, once against these Jets. Jay Cutler's debut went well enough last week, but he's nothing more than a stopgap and I'm not optimistic regarding his tenure here. I fully recognize that that taking the Jets can be a "dicey proposition," but I just don't trust Miami in this spot as they're a team that was nowhere near as good as their record last year and even against the perceived worst team in the league, this price range is not appropriate. 8* NY Jets