Bryan Power – Sports Handicapper

6* San Diego (6:40 ET): Seattle has somehow clawed its way back up into second place in the AL West. They are still three games below .500 mind you. It needs to be pointed out that three of their four series have been against either Oakland or Baltimore, two of the worst teams in the American League. They went 6-1 against the A’s alone. Now it’s a step up in class as they head down the coast to face San Diego in an annual interleague matchup. Last year, the Padres took all three games from the Mariners. They’re a stronger team this year and you should look for the home team to come out ahead in this one. 

The Padres avoided being swept Sunday, beating the Dodgers 4-2. They were +182 on the money line. Now they get to return home where they’re favored. Opponents are averaging only 3.5 runs per game at Petco Park while batting .209. Starting today for the Padres will be Sean Manaea, who is coming off back to back quality starts. He should have won his last time out, but the bullpen blew a 6-0 lead. Still, in five of his last six starts, Manaea has gone at least six innings and allowed three runs or less. You can count on him in this situation, especially with the Mariners being a pretty weak offensive ballclub.

The M’s average just 3.9 runs per game for the year and are below that number the L7 games, despite winning more than they’ve lost. The key has been allowing three runs or less in all but two games. However, I don’t see that happening here as Chris Flexen has a 5-10 TSR and in two career starts vs. SD his ERA is 21.21! Seattle is 3-9 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season while San Diego is 70-37 L3 seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -250. The Mariners are also just 6-13 vs. lefties this year. 6* San Diego

9* Washington (11:05 AM ET): The Nationals are looking to avoid being swept here, in a four-game series at home no less. They are 1-11 against the Marlins this season. That’s an exceptionally bad record against any opponent, let alone one that’s still three games below .500. I’ve said in the past that Miami is better than its record (they have a positive run differential), but I still can’t see them sweeping a four-game series on the road. Not with an unproven starter on the mound.

Yesterday, it did briefly look like Washington might break through. They led 3-2 going into the ninth inning. But it was not to be as Miami scored two in the top of the ninth. After Washington tied it in the bottom of the ninth, the Marlins would eventually win 7-4 in 11 innings. But Miami leaned on its bullpen heavily Sunday and as alluded to above, today’s starter Braxton Garrett is incapable of carrying his team to victory. Having gone a full five innings only one time in five starts, Garrett allowed five runs his last time out and his lone career start against the Nats resulted in a 15-0 loss. 

Patrick Corbin is one of only two pitchers in all of baseball with double digit losses. His team start record is 4-12, but he is coming off a win as he struck out 12 over eight innings and allowed just one run vs. Pittsburgh. Corbin allowed just 2 ER in six innings when he faced Miami back in April. Truthfully, this is all about the situation as I’m a big believer that home teams are unlikely to be swept in four-game series at home, no matter who they are. 9* Washington