Bryan Power – Sports Handicapper

10* Under White Sox/Brewers (7:10 ET): This should be a good old fashioned “pitchers duel” on Saturday as we’ve got Carlos Rodon set to face Corbin Burnes. Rodon comes in sporting an 8-3 record (11-5 TSR) with a 2.14 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Burnes is 5-4 (8-8 TSR), but that record completely undersells just how well he has pitched in 2021 as he has a 2.06 ERA and 0.886 WHIP. Lately, Burnes has been on the top of his game by allowing just three runs in his L4 starts, which have spanned 27 ⅓ innings. Last time out, he threw 8 1/3 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts, a game the Brew Crew won 8-0. 

The White Sox average 5.3 runs per game on the road, but in this series they must deal with the same disadvantage that every AL team faces when they hit the road in Interleague Play -- no designated hitter in the lineup. Without the DH, they were held to just one run in last night’s series opener and it didn’t come until the eighth inning. They never sent more than five men to the plate in any inning. Four times they were three up, three down. It’s difficult to envision them doing much tonight against a starting pitcher that has an incredible 140-16 KW rate on the season. 

Milwaukee is not a great offensive team by any stretch. They are actually dead last among NL teams in batting average. At home, that average dips to .218. The seven runs they scored last night is a little misleading as they had one big six-run inning (thanks to a grand slam). Just like Burnes, Rodon is coming off an exemplary performance. He tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball on Sunday, with 10 strikeouts, and that was against the Astros (#1 team in rpg!). It was the 12th time (in 16 starts) this season that Rodon allowed 1 ER or less. He is on a streak of 10 straight starts with 8+ strikeouts, which is a club record. 10* Under White Sox/Brewers

9* Under Rangers/Astros (7:10 ET): Texas has been just dreadful since the All-Star Break, losing all eight of its games by a combined score of 71-13! Going back to BEFORE the break, they’ve lost 10 in a row. It was more of the same last night as they fell to the Astros 7-3 in the series opener. Houston scored all seven of its runs in two innings, so there was some “cluster luck” involved. But considering the fact the Rangers absolutely stink on the road (13-38 this year!) and the Astros are now north of -200 on the ML, this should be another easy win for the home team. 

But as good as the AL West leaders are (#2 in my power ratings), I’m not looking to bet them on the ML today. It’s tempting, but the price is just too high. I think the Under is a much better value here as you know the Rangers aren’t going to score many runs and the Astros aren’t likely to score as many as they did last night. The likelihood that the home team won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (assuming they are ahead) would also be beneficial to an Under play as the better team will only come up to bat eight times. 

Texas has its best starter on the mound Saturday in Kyle Gibson. Gibson has a 2.86 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 18 starts. While he’s been better in Arlington (compared to on the road), you can generally count on a quality start from him. Now he has struggled in B2B starts, especially the last one, but he also allowed 2 ER or less in 15 of his first 17 starts this season. That includes 3 for 3 in quality starts vs. the Astros (1.89 ERA in 19 IP). I think we should also see Houston’s Framber Valdez pitch better than he has recently. Valdez has allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his 10 starts this season. 9* Under Rangers/Astros

analysis soon

7* Cory Sandhagen (9:40 ET): This is your main event for UFC on ESPN 27. It’s scheduled for five rounds in the Bantamweight Division (135 lbs) between Cory Sandhagen (14-2 overall, 7-1 in UFC) and the returning TJ Dillashaw (16-4 overall, 12-4 in UFC). What Dillashaw is “returning” from is a 30 month suspension for drug use. His last fight came all the way back in January 2019, that being the disastrous 32 second KO loss to Henry Cejudo, which was for the Flyweight Title. The Bantamweight division now is a lot stronger than when Dillashaw was last a part of it. So expect to see Sandhagen win this one. 

Sandhagen’s only loss in the UFC came to current Bantamweight Champ Aljamain Sterling. That was back in June of last year. He subsequently bounced back with a pair of impressive victories, the most recent being the highlight-reel KO of Frankie Edgar back in February. It took all of 28 seconds for “The Sandman” to end that one. That was on the heels of a 2nd round TKO of Marlon Moraes last October. Sandhagen has defeated a lot of “older” bantamweights and the 35-year old Dillashaw would be the most impressive victim yet. 

Dillashaw’s drug suspension looms large over this fight as it was one of the more severe punishments we’ve seen for a fighter. That and the fact he was destroyed by Cejudo the last time we saw him has to make you wonder if he’s approaching “the end of the line.”  Meanwhile, a win here and Sandhagen would almost certainly earn a title shot and rematch with Sterling. Almost all of Dillashaw’s wins have come against fighters that are now afterthoughts in this division. Sandhagen is top 10 all-time in the UFC in significant strikes landed per minute. This feels like a “passing of the torch.” 7* Cory Sandhagen

10* Qatar (7:30 ET): Qatar made quite the statement in winning Group D. The 2022 World Cup hosts claimed two victories and a draw, plus they finished as the highest scoring side in group play with nine goals scored. They are now unbeaten across their last 10 matches with the last loss coming in a friendly against South Korea back in November. It wasn’t just goal scoring where Qatar showed its prowess either; they’ve kept two consecutive clean sheets where they allowed just two shots on goal! 

El Salvador finished second in Group A as they knew they were already through to the quarterfinals when they lost to Mexico 1-0. Though they had their fair share of goalscoring opportunities in that final match of the group stage - and dominated possession - La Selecta was actually lucky they weren’t beaten worse than 1-0 as Mexico blew its own share of opportunities. They can’t be nearly as careless with the football if they want to win here against a team that has trailed only three times in its last 12 matches. 

Qatar is unbeaten in its last five against CONCACAF sides and last time out held Honduras w/o a shot for the entirety of the match. That’s very impressive. Don’t forget they won the Asian Cup two years ago and didn’t even concede a goal until the Final of that tournament. Their lone blemish here in the Gold Cup was the opening match draw vs. Panama where three different times they blew a one-goal advantage. Since then, they’ve allowed nothing and scored six goals. El Salvador has never made it past the quarterfinals in the Gold Cup and isn’t favored to do so here. Right before this tournament began, Qatar won a friendly 1-0 and this one figures to be more lopsided than that. 10* Qatar