Bryan Power – Sports Handicapper

8* LA Dodgers (7:38 ET): So I won with Atlanta in Game 1. As I said in the analysis, they had some key advantages coming into this series, namely revenge, more rest, home field advantage and Max Fried starting. The home field advantage may be undeserved, but it “is what it is.” The rest advantage is no longer a factor heading into Game 2, revenge has been exacted (for a prior series sweep) and Fried is obviously not available tonight. So I’m backing the Dodgers to even this series up tonight. 

Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts did NOT end up using Max Scherzer in Game 1, opting for a “bullpen game” instead. Losing a postseason game is obviously never ideal, but I think Roberts and the Dodgers are in good shape with Scherzer going in Game 2. Let’s also not forget the Dodgers did end up out-hitting the Braves last night 10-6. But they were doomed by going 1 for 8 with RISP (1 for 6 vs. Fried) and then of course there was the baserunning blunder in the top of the ninth. A case could be made, that even with Atlanta’s best pitcher on the mound, the Dodgers were the better team last night. 

There’s no doubt who the better starter is in Game 2. Scherzer is arguably the greatest trade deadline acquisition ever. He pitched twice in the NLDS vs. San Francisco, allowing just one run on three hits in his lone start (Game 3), then tossing the series-clinching final inning of Game 5. The Dodgers are 13-1 in Scherzer starts since acquiring him. Ian Anderson goes for the Braves. While he’s a fine pitcher in his own right, he’s not Scherzer. The Dodgers have lost B2B games just one time since the start of August! 8* LA Dodgers

10* Atalanta (9:00 AM ET): Perennial Serie A heavyweights Atalanta currently sit 8th in the table and that is simply not acceptable from where their fans sit. It’s actually a four-way tie for 6th that La Dea finds itself in, but they trail Lazio in goal differential. Traditionally one of the highest scoring sides in the league, it’s pretty shocking to see Atalanta with only 10 goals after seven matches. It’s fixtures like this one that they must win if they are to move up the table and get closer to the top four. I think they will take the full three points Sunday. 

Empoli is one of the newly promoted sides for 2021/22. They shocked Juventus earlier in the season, but have also been rather inconsistent. Before the International Break, they lost 2-0 to Roma, snapping a two-match win streak. I think they’re a bit lucky to be 10th in the table right now considering they have the third lowest expected point total in all of Serie A. Not only have they scored far more than expected, they’ve also conceded fewer times than what the metrics suggest they should have given up. 

Atalanta has not lost in their last nine away matches - posting six wins - so I’m not worried about them travelling here. Including Champions League play, La Dea has lost only once in their last six across all competitions, that being their last time out to Milan 3-2. Look for them to bounce back from that defeat here against a vulnerable side that is not able to compete with the clubs in the top half of the table. The last time Atalanta faced Empoli in Serie A (April ‘19), they had 47 shots on goal! 10* Atalanta

10* Rayo Vallecano (8:00 AM ET): Compared to the recently promoted sides in the Premier League, Bundesliga and Serie A, the 2021 newcomers in La Liga are making a decent accounting of themselves. Of the three, Rayo Vallecano has been the most impressive. They currently sit sixth in the table, having taken 13 points from their eight matches. Though they were blanked 1-0 by Osasuna right before the International Break, that result snapped a five-match unbeaten streak for Vallecano, which included four victories. I like them to pick up the full three points this week at the expense of a side in the bottom half of the table. 

I thought Elche was arguably the weakest side in all of La Liga last season. They were fortunate not to be relegated as they finished with the lowest xPts total in the league (30.31). Only one team (last place Eibar) suffered more defeats. This year has seen Los Franjiverdes be more competitive as they have a decent defensive record. But they’ve only scored five times in eight matches and that’s the primary reason why they currently sit 14th in the table with just nine points. Elche has not scored more than one goal in any La Liga fixture this season. 

Rayo has scored multiple goals in four different matches, so they’ve got a substantial edge in front of the net. They’ve also done a much better job defensively since losing 3-0 to Sevilla in the opener. Since then, they’ve conceded only five times in seven matches and never more than once in any individual match. They’ve also won all three fixtures here at the Estadio de Vallecas. Elche has just one away victory this season and is dealing with multiple injuries right now, so it’s tough to see them even sharing the points here. 10* Rayo Vallecano

10* New England (4:25 ET): Dallas is the only team in the league to still be undefeated ATS. The Cowboys ran their mark to 5-0 ATS (and 4-1 SU) with a convincing 44-20 win last week (as seven-point favorites). But the team they beat (the Giants) resembled the “walking wounded” by the end of that game. By the time the second half kicked off, the G-Men were without SEVEN of their Week 1 starters on offense. This included QB Jones, RB Barkley and WR Golladay. So it’s no wonder that the Cowboys were able to win so easily. 

This week’s opponent seems a lot healthier and is also coming off a win. Now it was closer than anyone expected, but the Patriots did get by the Texans 25-22. This will now be the second time in three weeks that the Pats are home underdogs, something that never happened all that much when Tom Brady was the QB here. You may recall that I took the Patriots two weeks ago when they hosted Brady’s new team (Tampa Bay) and they came away with the cash, covering the number in a close 19-17 loss. If they can stick with the Bucs (lone team to beat Dallas this year), then they can stick with - or beat - the Cowboys. 

It all starts with a New England defense that gives up only 18.3 PPG. That’s top five in the league. Then, as I discussed in the analysis for the TB game, Bill Belichick has been great as an underdog throughout his career. He’s 49-24-1 ATS here in NE, including 25-10-1 since 2006. As a home dog, Belichick is 15-4 ATS with 12 outright wins. Dallas is an extremely “public” side this week and I definitely trust my money with Belichick more so than I do with Mike McCarthy. Take the points. 10* New England

7* Denver Money Line (4:25 ET): So, uhh, it’s been a rather tumultuous week out in Vegas with now former Raiders HC Jon Gruden resigning in disgrace. The team has to still play a football game this week mind you and to compound matters, the Silver and Black are off B2B losses as they hit the road to face Denver. The Broncos are in a similar situation in that they too have lost two straight following a 3-0 SU start. But they are at home and HC Vic Fangio’s emails are probably pretty nondescript. I look for Denver to be the team that ends its slide and will play them on the money line.

There’s really something pretty remarkable with this Broncos team. They were the ONLY team in the league not to be favored a single time last season. Now, in 2021, they have been favored in each of the first six games! I know that their three wins are against the Giants, Jets & Jaguars (who are a combined (2-13 SU), but you can argue (based on the pointspread) that the Broncos have actually underachieved to this point. Now they probably shouldn’t have been favored against the Ravens or at Pittsburgh. But this mess known as the Raiders is a team they should certainly beat. 

Long time special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia is the one left to pick up the pieces in the wake of Gruden’s departure. It’s obviously a very tough situation for someone with no prior NFL HC experience. He takes over an offense that has been really struggling of late with only 23 points scored in the L2 games. The Raiders rank 31st (next to last) in yards per rush. Two of their three wins came in OT, so I view them as being fortunate to even be 3-2 SU. Given the circumstances, this should be a win for the Broncos. 7* Denver Money Line

8* Cleveland (4:05 ET): Arizona is 5-0 SU and the only unbeaten left in the NFL. But they were also the only team to win last week while being outgained on a per play basis. The 49ers outgained them for the game (338-304) and 5.7 to 5.1 per play. It was a lucky break facing a rookie QB (Trey Lance), who had to make his first career start on the road. Eventually, you know that the Cardinals are going to lose a game. This week, the Cards are poised to be without several key players as they go on the road to face a good Cleveland team. This is where the first loss happens. 

Cleveland is 3-2 with the two losses being close ones on the road to the Chiefs and Chargers. In both instances, Kevin Stefanski’s team led at halftime. Last week saw them put up 42 points and 532 yards with zero turnovers. They were the first team in NFL history to do that and still lose. That’s little consolation for the Browns, but the good news is that they’ve won six straight times off a SU loss and are 6-0 ATS L6 non-conference games. 

Arizona has already gone on the road and won three times, twice as an underdog. I can’t see them doing it again. Not with three positive COVID tests among players and staff this week. The one player we know that tested positive is LB Chandler Jones. That’s in addition to the losses of TE Maxx Williams (out for season) and center Rodney Houston to injuries. Cleveland also has its fair share of injuries, but can lean on the league’s best rushing attack and that will be the difference in a game where most of the focus will be about Mayfield vs. Murray. 8* Cleveland

8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): With the exception of an impressive 30-17 win they had up in Seattle, the Vikings have played nothing but close games this season. Four times things have been decided by seven points or less and last week one FINALLY went Mike Zimmer’s way as the Vikes got a last second FG to beat the Lions 19-17. It really should have never come to that as they led by 10 with less than three minutes remaining, only to give up a FG, then a touchdown after an inexcusable fumble. I happen to agree with the line move here and will play Minnesota as a road favorite. 

Carolina has been a bit exposed following a 3-0 SU/ATS start. They’ve dropped B2B games, failing to cover the number both times. I faded them last week when they hosted Philadelphia and that proved to be the correct decision as the Eagles came from behind to win 21-18. Like Minnesota, there was a late miscue you can point to (blocked punt), but unlike the Vikings, the Panthers could not overcome it. I remain unsold on Sam Darnold, who has thrown five interceptions and been sacked eight times in the team’s two losses. 

Despite a 2-3 SU record, the Vikings have a positive point differential, which is something definitely worth mentioning. I know that Minnesota has had its fair share of struggles at the “pay window” going back to last year, but that’s something that’s going to improve moving forward. Carolina may have solid defensive numbers thus far, but they really haven’t faced many good QB’s. The one time they did, they gave up 36 points to Dak Prescott and Dallas. Kirk Cousins has the “goods” to make them pay here and I don’t think the return of Christian McCaffery is enough to stop the Panthers from losing their third straight game. 8* Minnesota