Bryan Power – Sports Handicapper

8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): It remains unconscionable to us that the Mets are 26-36 in all starts made by Jacob deGrom since the start of last season. In spite of his own team's ineptitude, deGrom captured the Cy Young last year and while he won't be able to match those numbers from 2018, this season has seen him continue to pitch very well. He has a 2.61 ERA and 1.005 WHIP in 30 starts and lately he's been too good for even the Mets to deny. His L2 times out, deGrom has given up a total of just one run while working 14 innings. He's given up just six hits and has a 19-1 KW ratio. Starting on the road this evening, he's available at a much cheaper price than usual and we'll back him against the light-hitting Reds. 

Though on the outskirts of contention, the Mets have managed to stay relevant in the NL Wild Card race. They're 3.5 games back, thanks to a 9th inning rally Wednesday in Colorado. They had yesterday off to get to Cincinnati, a good thing seeing as the Mets' record following a day off is 12-7. (Reds are 1-11 L12 in that situation). The playoff race is something that the Reds fell out of long ago as they just haven't been able to get over the proverbial hump. Like the Mets, they come into this series on a two-game win streak, but they're only 72-81 and have managed just a trio of three-game win streaks since the Break (none more than three). 

The Reds do have good pitching and if he were facing almost any other pitcher, Luis Castillo would be a bargain at this price at Great American Ballpark. But deGrom is simply better than Castillo and a major problem Cincy faces in this this matchup is an inability to score consistently as they are 4th from the bottom in runs among all NL teams. Not only does deGrom sport a 2.09 ERA since May 22nd (21 starts), he has a 1.74 ERA in five career outings against the Reds. He shut them out for seven innings in the only prior series between the teams, which was back in early May, allowing only three hits. The Mets lost that game 1-0, but ironically the Reds lost a quality start by Castillo in that same series! Castillo is working on extended rest here (six days), but the problem is he has a 2-6 TSR in that situation. 8* NY Mets

6* Cleveland (7:05 ET): For the Indians, the Tigers were the "gift that keeps on giving." Last night's 7-0 win made it yet another sweep over the team from Detroit as the Indians finished the year an incredible 18-1 against their division rival. If the Tribe ends up making it to the postseason, they may want to send a thank you card to the Tigers. Last night's win enabled Cleveland to pull into a tie w/ idle Tampa Bay (both 90-63) for the second Wild Card spot in the American League (two games back of Oakland). For the final home series of the year, they welcome in a National League team - Philadelphia - whom they should defeat every bit as easily as the odds indicate they should. 

The Phillies are obviously a big step up from playing the Tigers, but they are still a below average ballclub by the numbers. I say that because they've been outscored on the year. A 5-4 loss to the Braves yesterday afternoon really put a dent in Philly's playoff hopes as they are now four back of the Wild Card needing to jump three teams. Not that I view this is as a playoff team anyway. Injuries have also begun to take their toll on their everyday lineup, the latest being Jean Segura (one of their more consistent hitters), who left yday's game w/ a cramp. 

Something to keep in mind is that Cleveland has won 8 of the past 9 days its played. It's only losses during that stretch came in a doubleheader where they got swept by Minnesota. They send Shane Bieber out for this all-important series opener and you have to like that considering Bieber is second in all of MLB this year (deGrom) w/ 14 starts of 7+ innings & allowing 2 runs or fewer. The Indians are 20-11 in all Bieber starts this year. Drew Smyly of the Phillies, like Bieber, has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. But the difference is Smyly still has a 5.62 ERA and 1.528 WHIP on the year. Things get a lot tougher here facing an American League lineup (w/ a DH). 6* Cleveland

10* USC (9:00 ET): These Pac 12 South rivals already have a common opponent and that's BYU. Each team had to go to Provo and both were listed as a 5-point favorite. Utah won their game, 30-12, while USC lost outright 30-27. So the Utes should be the obvious call here, right? (Especially seeing as we had them in the win over BYU). "Not so fast, my friend!" An interesting tidbit from those games is that the two teams averaged a near identical number of yards per play (5.75 vs. 5.72). Southern Cal may have lost, but did so in overtime. They also led in the 4th quarter, but ultimately could not overcome a -3 turnover differential. (Note: Utah was +3 in TO's in its game vs. BYU). With the home team having covered seven of eight matchups since Utah became a Pac 12 member, we'll take the points w/ the Trojans.

With Southern Cal having lost QB J.T. Daniels to a season-ending ACL injury (in the 1st game), one would naturally think Utah has the edge offensively coming into this one. I'm not so sure that's the case. Even with QB Huntley and RB Moss returning, the Utes aren't likely to put up a ton of points on a consistent basis as they play at a very slow pace. USC has found a replacement for Daniels in freshman Kedon Slovis, who completed 28 of 33 pass attempts for 377 yards in the 45-20 win over Stanford, which was the last time the Trojans played at the Coliseum. Slovis wasn't quite as effective last week in his first career road start, but still completed 24 of 34 passes for 281 yards. Don't think Utah will simply be able to "outscore" USC in this one. 

I mentioned earlier that the home team is on a 7-1 ATS run in this rivalry. That also includes six straight wins by an average of 9 PPG. Our numbers actually indicate USC should be slightly favored here, even though Utah has covered the last three matchups, including a one-point loss here in LA two years ago. But the Utes have not won straight up at the Coliseum since 1916! Trojans HC Clay Helton has not been good as underdog in the past and his seat will only get warmer were his team to lose again this week. He's got road games at Washington and Notre Dame on deck, so expect an "all hands on deck" approach to this Friday night home game. 10* USC