Bryan Power – Sports Handicapper

There's been a pitching change here w/ Oakland now turning to Edwin Jackson, rather than Blackburn. Play is still valid! 

8* Under A's/White Sox (2:10 ET): Welp. This is it. The final meeting of the season between Oakland and Chicago, thus making it the final chance we have to see them produce an Under. Six times previous to this they've met and all six games have gone Over the total. In fact, going back to last season, it's been NINE consecutive Overs. I'll call for that streak to end today, however, as the White Sox are not to be feared offensively (just 2.9 rpg scored over the last week w/ a .213 average). Meanwhile, Oakland's hot hitting on the road I believe is due to subside moving forward. Take the Under. 

Over the past week, the A's are averaging 7.1 runs per game. For the season, they average 5.6 on the road! That's all pretty impressive, but I don't see it continuing. They've largely been powered by the home run ball of late (19 in last 10 games!), but the pitcher they'll faced today (Carlos Rodon) isn't known for giving up many. This will be just the 4th start of the season for Rodon, who is off his weakest effort to date. But he was also facing Cleveland for a second straight time when he gave up four runs (did not allow a HR though). The White Sox are 0-3 in Rodon's three starts, but that's more emblematic of what a bad team they are, not the individual. Over its L7 games, Chicago has been held to three runs or fewer five times. 

Oakland will be Jackson's 13th team, tying a MLB record. He was originally set to start tomorrow in Detroit, but obviously "plans change." After spending time in Washington's farm system to start the year, Jackson opted out and joined Oakland's. He spent time at Triple-A Nashville, making three starts there and averaged more than a strikeout per inning. With the rotation is injury-riddled, Oakland's bullpen has no issues right now as closer Blake Treinen has converted 14 straight save opportunities and has a 0.73 ERA his L21 appearances. It's highly unlikely that Chicago will get off to such a fast start again today (scored only one run over the final eight innings yday, after the five-run 1st), so expect this to be a low-scoring game. 8* Under A's/White Sox

8* Atlanta (1:35 ET): I think it's fair to say that the Braves currently qualify as the National League's biggest surprise for 2018. But, surprisingly a weekend series at home w/ lowly Baltimore has not gone well. The Braves have dropped the first two games, by scores of 10-7 and 7-5. I feel that both results are a little misleading in the sense that a first inning grand slam sealed their fate yesterday in a game where they actually outhit the O's 12-7. Friday's game was a 15-inning affair that saw the Braves bullpen allow six runs in the top of the ninth (did answer w/ four of their own to force extras). I just can't see them getting swept at home by a bad Baltimore team, thus the decision to lay the price is a relatively easy one on this end. 

The Orioles are one of four teams in baseball that may very well end up losing 100+ games. Even w/ the two wins in Atlanta, they are 23-52 for the season (.307), just one-half game ahead of KC for the worst record in all of baseball. The numbers have been pretty frightening on the road where they're being outscored by 1.8 rpg. Going into yday, they were just 6-15 off a win this season. Not surprisingly, they are just 2-7 as a road underdog of +175 or higher on the money line. (This is the highest they've been on the ML in this series, if the line holds). Having David Hess start this game probably won't help, at least based on recent efforts, as he has a 7.07 ERA and 1.714 WHIP over his last three starts. He's allowed five runs in B2B efforts, lasting only eight innings total. An offense that ranks 27th or lower in runs scored, batting average, slugging and OBP should (theoretically) be facing an even larger handicap than usual here as they are w/o the DH (NL park). Baltimore's pitching has been just as bad as the hitting this year as the staff is 30th (ie last) in WHIP and opponents' batting average. 

The Braves had been a good home team coming into this series (21-12 overall), making the results of the last two days all the more confounding. They are 17-8 in day games this season (while Baltimore is just 9-20), so perhaps that helps make the difference here. Veteran Brandon McCarthy will toe the rubber for the home team today, hoping to reverse his own individual results of late. He has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, but also a 1.163 WHIP during that time, so he hasn't pitched that poorly. McCarthy allowed just two runs his last time out (in 5 2/3 IP), but that wasn't enough in yet another instance of the bullpen melting down. Despite now referencing two bad performances over the last week, the Braves' pen has typically performed okay this season at SunTrust Park w/ a 3.85 ERA. The number of blown saves (6) here has been an issue, but not today. Baltimore has not swept a series all season. 8* Atlanta

10* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): The host Pirates are on the verge of suffering the indignity of being swept in a four-game series in their own park, but I feel they've got enough going for them today to avoid that fate. Four-game sweeps are quite rare (if you're the home team), so the Pirates should be supremely motivated heading into Sunday. Clearly, the first three games of the series have not gone well w/ the Bucs losing by scores of 9-3, 2-1 (extra innings) and 7-2. It will certainly take more runs than that here, but I'm pretty confident that's what we'll get. Two rain delays did the Bucs no favors yday (after falling behind 5-0) nor did facing Zack Greinke, who kept them in check. Somewhat surprisingly though is the fact the Pirates came into this series as the slightly better offensive ballclub. 

Starting Sunday for Pittsburgh will be Trevor Williams. He's off one of his better starts of the season as last Monday saw him pitch seven innings of scoreless ball. He allowed only ONE hit while also tying a season-high w/ seven strikeouts. Note that was the last time the Pirates won. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Williams that day is how small his margin for error was (Pirates won only 1-0) and he got the job done. He should do well here facing a lineup that is dead last in all of MLB in batting average (.227). Given that average, it's a real wonder that Arizona has been able to average 4.5 runs per game (13th in MLB). Williams is a righty too, and the D'backs have a lower team BA vs. righties than they do lefties. 

Arizona will turn to Clay Buchholz here. The good news is that Buchholz has pitched VERY well on the road this season. In three starts, he's posted a 2.12 ERA and 0.765 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .180 average. The bad news is that those efforts have been wasted as the team has gone 0-3 in those three starts. His last time out was at home, but a similar story as he allowed just 1 run in 5 2/3 IP and left w/ a 3-1 lead, only for the bullpen to blow the game. That made it three straight no-decisions for the right-hander, one of them coming agianst these Pirates when he allowed six runs (four unearned) - yet the D'backs still won. He started opposite Williams that day, but this time Buchholz won't be as lucky. I think wasting those previous efforts will come back to haunt Arizona as I don't anticipate Buchholz being that sharp moving forward. The Pirates offense has gotten a bit of a boost from rookie Austin Meadows (5 for 13 in this series) and that should start to translate to some better results. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Under Colombia/Poland (2:00 ET): Group H was certainly not supposed to play out like this. When the draw was revealed, most banked on both Colombia and Poland coming into this second match sporting 1-0 records and looking to seize control of the table. But what's that the say about the "best laid plans?" Instead, both dropped their first game and now will be fighting for their respective lives come Sunday afternoon. Colombia, battling a ton of turmoil, lost 2-1 to Japan. Poland lost to Senegal 2-1 w/ the difference there being a controversial goal that HC Adam Nawalka called "kind of curious" as Senegal's M'Baye Niang was able to re-enter the pitch amongst seemingly mass confusion. Both teams will be tight here (neither can afford another loss). Thus, I'm on the Under. 

This is the sixth straight World Cup where Poland failed to win its first match. This one, however, had to be the most painful for a side that came in ranked #8 in the world. Really, all three goals in the Senegal match were clouded in a bit of controversy. The first was an "own-goal" that simply should not have happened. Poland defender Thiago Cionek stuck out a leg and deflected what was an errant shot into his own net in the 37th minute. It certainly didn't help that goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny played the ball so recklessly as well. Then came the aforementioned second Senegal goal, which was the source of so much confusion and choas. Poland's only goal didn't come until the 86th minute and was a strange situation as well as didn't seem like Senegal was ready. Truthfully, it was a terrible match (at least I had Senegal!) w/ little action, few chances and there definitely should have been fewer goals scored

While Poland was left to rue the few chances its top scorer Robert Lewandowski got against Senegal, Colombia's best player (James Rodriguez) didn't even get on the pitch until the 59th minute against Japan as a late substitute. Questions remain over Rodriguez's fitness (muscle fatigue) and that's a big blow for this side considering what he did four years ago in Brasil (led all players w/ six goals in five games) and qualifying leading up to Russia (scored six more goals). In addition to being w/o Rodriguez, Colombia found itself even more behind the proverbial "8-ball" vs. Japan when Carlos Sanchez received a red card in the opening three minutes and they had to play down a man the rest of the way. (Sadly, Sanchez has received death threats over this). With a full XI on the pitch here, Colombia won't be giving up multiple goals again, I presume. 10* Under Colombia/Poland