Bryan Power – Sports Handicapper

8* San Antonio (7:35 ET): Last night, the Spurs failed to clinch the final spot in the Western Conference’s “play-in tournament” as they lost 128-116 at Brooklyn. It was a game they never led and trailed by double digits most of the way. With their two final regular season games both coming against high-flying Phoenix, San Antonio could badly use a win here so that they don’t have to worry about beating the Suns. I know that it’s the second game of a back to back, but their opponents are returning home after a long West Coast swing, so there’s no situational advantage in terms of scheduling. Take the points. 

The Knicks are the league’s biggest surprise this season as they have clinched a top six spot in the East and could finish as high as fourth. To the point they’ve been surprising, no team in the league has a better ATS record than New York’s 44-23-2. They are covering games at a near historic pace, but I think the oddsmakers are eventually going to “catch up with them.” This is a team that has been an underdog in two-thirds of its games including each of the last five. After a series of high-profile non-conference clashes vs. the likes of the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets and Suns, this could be letdown territory for the favorite. 

The Knicks-Lakers game on Monday saw 22 lead changes and went to OT. The Knicks lost 101-99 as they shot below 40% overall. Over the L4 games, the Knicks have not broken 106 points. San Antonio is just two games removed from a shocking 146-125 win over Milwaukee and while they lost at Brooklyn last night, the Spurs are a better team on the road with a 19-16 SU record. The Knicks could be playing short-handed tonight as four players are listed as questionable on the injury report. 8* San Antonio

10* Under Magic/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta is now guaranteed a top six finish in the East after outlasting Washington in each of the last two games. A top six finish is nice as it allows the Hawks to avoid the play-in tournament. But they want to be 4th and have home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. While this has been an interesting season (to say the least), Atlanta is 23-11 SU on its home floor where it’s won nine in a row. So getting the home court advantage would be a big deal to them. The final two games (both at home) vs. Orlando and then Houston look to be pretty easy. 

Orlando is absolutely NOT going to the playoffs as they’ve been near the bottom of the Eastern Conference most of the season. They actually own the worst point differential in the East as they are getting outscored by 8.8 points per game this year. Coming into tonight, they’ve lost four in a row - all by double digits - and are now 21-48 SU this season. The Magic’s big problem is they just can’t score. They average only 104.1 PPG, second fewest in the league, and in those four straight DD losses they’ve never shot better than 41.8% from the field. Three of the four games have seen them score 102 pts or less. 

After coming back from a 13-point 4Q deficit last night, Atlanta may be a bit drained on the offensive end. The L5 games have seen them average 125.8 PPG, which is well above their season average. Keep in mind they just got done facing the league’s worst scoring defense (Wizards) B2B times. The Under is 8-3 in division games for Atlanta as they give up only 105.1 PPG and score only 109.4. It was 112-96 the last time these teams played and the total was much lower. 10* Under Magic/Hawks

10* Boston (7:10 ET): Two first place teams wrap up a three-game series at Fenway on Thursday. While Oakland has taken the first two games, it is them that I’m more skeptical of at this point of the season. Nobody saw Boston leading the AL East, but the A’s have a -6 run differential this season and somehow lead the West. Compare that to second place Houston (+44) or even the Red Sox (+29). Thus, I see the A’s “falling off” a bit in the coming weeks. The reason they have the most wins in all of MLB (23) right now is because they won 13 in a row last month. Outside that win streak, their record is 10-15. 

This is just the second three-game losing streak for Boston in 2021. The first is when they began 0-3. They proceeded to win 22 of their next 35 games after that. Puzzling is that the Red Sox are just 10-11 at home. They average 5.2 rpg here and have outscored the opposition. Last night was a frustrating one at the plate as they were 1 for 11 w/ RISP and the top two hitters (Xavier Bogaerts and Rafael Devers) each left five men on base. After scoring only three runs in the first two games of this series, I look for MLB’s highest scoring offense to “break out” Thursday night and end Sean Manaea’s six start unbeaten streak.

Manaea almost threw a no-hitter his last time out as the A’s righty gave up only one run on two hits in 7 ⅔ IP. He finished with 11 strikeouts and it was the sixth straight time the team won with him on the mound. But Manaea has a 6.84 ERA in five previous starts vs. Boston. The Red Sox counter with Garrett Richards, who has looked A LOT sharper his L3 outings after a rough start to the year. In those L3 starts, Richards is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA. 10* Boston

8* Atlanta (12:20 ET): The Braves can’t seem to solve the Blue Jays as they are now 0-5 head to head this season after a 4-1 loss on Wednesday. I had the Braves last night and for the second time in a row, they jumped out to an early lead. But once again the late innings proved problematic as Teoscar Hernandez homered twice for Toronto. At least I still cashed the Under in the game. Today, I believe the Braves do get their revenge as they face the Jays for the final time in 2021.

Atlanta has struggled in day games this season (5-8), but they are 45-29 in them the L3 seasons. This early start time sees Charlie Morton getting the nod as he looks to bounce back from an awful outing that was rather atypical. A passed ball (not Morton’s fault, obviously) opened the door for him to six unearned runs in the first innings vs. Philadelphia last Friday. The start before that saw Morton receive a no-decision in Toronto after allowing four runs in 5 ⅓. Remember this time, it’s played under NL rules, so he’ll be facing a weaker Blue Jays lineup, one that is only 4-13 when scoring four runs or less. 

Also off a poor start is Toronto’s Ross Stripling. He is winless in four starts this year with a 6.61 ERA and 1.898 WHIP. Stripling has yet to go longer than five innings. His last time out saw him charged with three runs in 3 ⅔ IP and take a 10-2 loss against Houston. The team (obviously) won when Stripling started against the Braves on 5/2, but that was at home. It’s revenge time for the Braves on Thursday. 8* Atlanta