College Football Reverse Line Movement Best Bets 11/05/16
Reverse line movement refers to betting lines, spreads and totals that move in the opposite direction of what the public betting percentages would suggest. A reverse line movement occurs when bigger bets are placed on the non-public side of the matchup, something commonly known as sharp money or smart money. You can follow line movements on our live betting odds page.
We have identified three games that fit the criteria above on Week 9 of College Football this Saturday.
College Football Reverse Line Movement Best Bets
TCU Horned Frogs +8 vs. Baylor Bears
The Baylor Bears opened as an 10-point favorite but are as of Friday morning only favored by eight, despite 63 percent of the wagers coming in on the Bears. Perhaps the sharps are not convinced the Bears can recover from last week’s 35-34 loss at Texas, their first defeat of the season. Reaching the College Football Playoffs will now be tough, but the Bears still have a shot at winning another Big 12 Conference title. TCU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games, losing three of those games outright. The lone win during that stretch was a 24-23 victory at Kansas, as a 28.5-point favorite. Nevertheless, the sharp money is pouring in on TCU, so something definitely seems to be up with this contest.
Key Trend: The Horned Frogs are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Utah State Aggies +5 vs. Wyoming Cowboys
The Wyoming Cowboys opened this clash with the Utah State Aggies as a 7-point favorite. With 75 percent of the tickets coming in on the home team you really wouldn’t expect this line to move the other way. Wyoming is coming off its biggest upset in decades when it won 30-28 as a 14.5-point underdog against No. 24 Boise State last week. While the public is firmly behind Wyoming to build on that upset, the sharps are far less convinced. Utah State has lost four of its last five games and failed to cover the spread in each of the last three, which probably is why the Aggies are considered to be undervalued here by the pros.
Key Trend: The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Florida State Seminoles vs. N.C. State Wolfpack +5.5
The Florida State Seminoles opened as an 8-point favorite, but they’re just favored by 5.5-points come Friday despite 80 percent of the wagers favoring the visitors. FSU has struggled against N.C. State in recent years, and this season may be no different. The Seminoles have failed to cover the spread in each of the last seven visits to Carter Finley Stadium in Raleigh. The Wolfpack are coming off three consecutive defeats and they’ve failed to cover the spread in each of their last two. They fell hard in a 21-14 setback against Boston College as a 16-point favorite last week. Florida State meanwhile gave Clemson a fair fight as a 4.5-point dog but fell 37-34 in the end.
Key Trend: The Seminoles are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in North Carolina State.
So there you have them, our College Football Reverse Line Movement Best Bets for Saturday November 5. Good luck, and may all your wagers be winners.
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