Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat NBA Free Pick 01/30/15

Play Miami Heat +9. 

When you’re catching this many at home there has to be a good reason for Vegas itching the opening number.  Perhaps the real key is guard Wade being out of the lineup for the Heat.  In addition, Dallas has covered at a 13-3-1 clip in Miami.  Still, we don’t believe the Mavs can cover this large opener considering they are on a 0-4 SU & ATS run.  The losses were to Houston, Memphis, New Orleans and Chicago.  Overall Dallas has a favorable net point differential of almost 18 points in the matchup, but this does not necessarily project a spread victory.  Home standing Miami has won 7 straight in the series.

The Mavs (30-17) are 22-24-1 ATS, whereas Miami (20-25) is 20-23-2 ATS.  Dallas comes in 16-9 SU on the road, Miami 8-14 SU at home.  The Mavs show 3-12-1 ATS after an ATS loss and 0-7-1 ATS off a SU loss. Miami with a 4-0 ATS mark off a SU loss.

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