Dolphins vs. Bengals Preview & Prediction September 29, 2016

Posted 1 year ago in Featured, Featured NFL Free Picks

Matchup: Miami Dolphins (1-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
8:25 PM ET, Thursday, September 29, 2016
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Line: MIA +7 / CIN -7
Over/Under: 44.5

The Miami Marlins are coming off their first win of the season, but a 30-24 overtime win against the Browns as close to a 10-point home favorite does not impress. The Bengals fell as a 3-point home favorite against the Broncos by a 29-17 score in Week 3.

Early money has come in on the Bengals without moving the opening line of Cincinnati -7 as of Tuesday morning. We are seeing small signs of reverse linemovement in favor of the Dolphins so keep an eye on that. Early money is coming in on the over as well, but again without moving the opening line.

The Dolphins

Miami took an 11-point lead early in the fourth quarter against the Browns last week but allowed its opponent to come back and force overtime. The Dolphins were very fortunate to walk away with the OT win as Cleveland missed a potential 46 yard game-winning field goal with no time left on the clock. Ryan Tannehill had a decent game under center and went 25-for-39 passing with 319 yards and three touchdowns, but was also picked off twice. He has already thrown four interceptions through three games on the season.

The Bengals

Cincinnati opened the season with a 23-22 win at New York Jets, but it has dropped back-to-back games since. Its defense could not contain Denver’s rookie QB Trevor Siemian (four touchdowns) in last week’s 29-17 loss while Andy Dalton was held in check by the Broncos D throwing for just 206 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception. He did not get much help from his offensive line and was sacked four times, something he might be used to by now as he’s been sacked a whopping 12 times already this season.

Stats

 DolphinsBengals
Points Per Game21.318.7
Points Allowed Per Game22.325.0
Yards Passing297.3312.7
Yards Rushing83.082.0
Pass Yards Allowed287.0253.3
Rush Yards Allowed147.3109.3

Key Trends

  • Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
  • Dolphins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 4.
  • Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
  • Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
  • Bengals are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 4.
  • Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.
  • Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
  • Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
  • Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Our Lean: Miami Dolphins +7

Both teams are coming off disappointing performances, and this is too many points for the Bengals to give up to any team right now.

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