Dolphins vs. Steelers Free Pick 01/08/17 – Jimmy Boyd’s Expert Pick
I like the value here is with Miami catching double-digits. I believe we are seeing an inflated line with Pittsburgh being such a public team. It’s not very often you see a team beat an opponent by 15 and then catch double-digits in the rematch. I know the Steelers are better at home than on the road, but 10-points is a lot in the postseason.
By Jimmy Boyd
I think the big spread will have Miami playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one. The Dolphins come in having won 9 of 11, yet no one is taking them seriously. It won’t be easy, but I actually think Miami can pull off the upset here.
The difference this time around is the Dolphins won’t have Ryan Tannehill. The thing is, Matt Moore is a more than capable backup. He’s completed 63.2% of his attempts with a 8.29 average per completion and 8-3 TD to INT ratio.
I know Pittsburgh’s defense has been playing better of late, but Miami had their way with them. Tannehill went 24 of 32 for 252 yards and Jay Ajayi rushed for 204 yards on 25 attempts. If the Dolphins can have similar success on the ground, it’s hard to not like their chances of keeping it close.
It’s also worth noting that Miami head coach Adam Gase has a strong history against the Steelers. Including the game this year, he’s faced them 3 times as a coach or assistant. In those 3 games his team has averaged 30 ppg. One of those was when he was the QB coach at Denver with Tim Tebow under center. That game the Broncos put up 447 yards in a Wild Card win over the Steelers.
The other big key for me is the Dolphins showed they can at least contain Le’Veon Bell. In that first meeting he had just 53 yards rushing and 55 receiving. Most importantly, they kept him out of the endzone. Miami also held Antonio Brown to just 4 catches for 39 yards and picked off Big Ben twice.
Lastly, Tomlin doesn’t have a great track record in these revenge spots. In fact, Pittsburgh is 2-10 ATS revenging a loss as a road favorite under Tomlin. It’s also worth noting the Dolphins are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Steelers are also just 1-3-1 ATS last 5 at home and 0-3-2 ATS last 5 playoff games. Take Miami!