Arkansas State vs. New Mexico State Free Pick October 28, 2017

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Published October 27, 2017 in Featured College Football Free Picks

Larry Ness Arkansas State vs. New Mexico State Free Pick

Play on: New Mexico State +3 (-110)

Start Time: October 28 2017, 8:00 PM

While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this one as I expect the hungry 3-4 New Mexico State Aggies to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Arkansas State is coming off a 47-3 annihilation of Louisiana Lafayette, while New Mexico State enters off hard-fought 35-27 road win over Georgia Southern in its last outing, keeping the team’s bowl bid hopes alive with just a handful of games remaining in the season.

In the Red Wolves win last week, Justice Hansen had 275 yards with two TD’s, while also adding another 121 rushing yards. Hansen has a 21/6 TD/INT ratio. Note though that Arkansas State leading rusher Warren Wand sat that one out and he’s also questionable for tonight’s contest as well.

The Red Wolves looked great on defense last week, but face a much stiffer test this weekend.

New Mexico State QB Tyler Rodgers had 382 passing yards, three TD’s and two INT’s last week. So far Rodgers has a 19/13 TD/INT ratio (note though that six of his INT’s came in a single game.) The Aggies are one of the most prolific passing teams in the nation. The defense was also solid last week, holding Georgia Southern to just 265 total yards, including just 73 passing.

I’ll point out though that Arkansas State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road fav of three points or less, while New Mexicto State is 2-1 ATS in its last three following its bye and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 at home.

The Aggies looked a lot better last week, especially on the defensive side of the ball and specifically against the pass. That’s going to help in going up against Hansen this weekend. Rodgers also faces a tough task against this talented Arkansas State defensive unit, but I think he’ll carry last week’s momentum over and I expect him to keep his team competitive down the stretch in front of the home town crowd.

Conisder New Mexico State this weekend.

Good luck…Larry

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