UTEP vs Middle Tennessee State Free Pick November 4, 2017

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Published November 4, 2017 in Featured College Football Free Picks

Larry Ness' UTEP vs Middle Tennessee State Free Pick

Play on: Middle Tennessee State -17½ (-110)

Start Time: November 04 2017, 7:30 PM

The 0-8 UTEP Miners are at the 3-5 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Miners are winless, while Tennessee State has lost two straight, most recently a 38-10 setback to Marshall two weeks ago.

UTEP was without its starting QB in its 31-14 loss to UTSA last weekend. Ryan Metz had been a disaster anyways, but his backup was possibly even worse as Fresno State transfer Zack Greenlee was 8 of 29 for 133 yards, no TD’s and two INT’s.

The Miners rank 130th in the nation in total yards per game (222.5 YPG), while ranked 111th in total yards conceded (451.6 YPG.)

MTSU averages 364.1 YPG and concedes 357 (which is ranked a respectable 36th in the nation.) In the loss to the Herd, QB John Urzua was just 14 of 30 for 220 yards, one TD and one pick.

Urzua suffered a slight concussion, meaning that freshman Kyle Banks could get the call here. Banks has limited playing time, but regardless I still think he has the advantage over Greenlee.

Additionally I’ll point out that UTEP is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 on the road (including 0-3 ATS this year) and only 2-5 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while MTSU is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 at home and interestingly, 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of November.

Both teams have major QB issues, but football involves three phases. UTEP is a mess across the board, while MTSU’s defense should prove to be the difference maker today. Consider laying the points in this one.

Good luck…Larry

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