Florida vs. Florida State Free Picks 11/26/16 – College Football Betting
Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles Free Picks 11/26/16. More Free Sports Betting Tips, Predictions & Picks from professional handicappers.
The 8-2 Florida Gators will visit the 8-3 Florida State Seminoles at Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida Saturday night. The game has a 8:00 PM ET start and will be broadcast on ABC network.
The Gators clinched a spot in the SEC Championship game on Dec. 3 against Alabama with a thrilling 16-10 win against LSU last week. The Seminoles won’t be playing the ACC Championship game, but a victory over Florida could improve their standing for the upcoming bowl season.
Line & Total
FSU opened as a 6.5-point favorite at market setting sportsbook 5Dimes, but 60 percent of the wagers backing the Seminoles have moved the spread to seven points even at most books. The total opened at 45 but is now between 47 and 47.5 at most shops, very surprising as almost 85 percent of the tickets are backing the under. FSU won last season’s meeting 27-2 and the under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings between the two rivals.
The Gators have plenty of injury woes and starting quarerback Luke Del Rio (shoulder) is only one of several key players watching from the sidelines at the moment. They were also without several regulars on defense in last week’s win, and linebackers Jarrad Davis (ankle) and Alex Anzalone (arm), and safety Marcus Maye (arm), the team’s top three tacklers are all likely to sit out once again.
Backup QB Austin Appleby is 3-1 as a starter replacing injured Del Rio under center, but he was just just 7-of-17 passing for 144 yards and a touchdown last week. Sophomore running back Jordan Scarlett has been a key for the Gators’ offense and went off for 108 yards rushing to improve to 725 yards for the season with six combined TDs.
Florida is all about the defense, holding opponents to 13 points per game this season and they rank fourth in the nation in total yards allowed per game at 282.4 yards per game. The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games while the under is 8-0 in their last eight games in November.
Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles are coming off a dominant 45-14 win at Syracuse. They totaled 654 yards of offense with 320 passing and 334 rushing, but the defense was also excellent, holding the Orange to just 37 rushing yards and 196 passing yards. Defensively FSU is allowing 370.8 yards per game on the season and the Seminoles have allowed only a total of 41 points in three consecutive victories.
Junior running back Dalvin Cook has rushed for at least 100 yards in seven of the last eight games to become the school’s all-time leading rusher. He had 225 yards and four scores last week while freshman quarterback Deonde Francois completed 18 of 28 passes for 315 yards with two touchdowns and one pick.
The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games and under is 7-1 in their last eight games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Our Prediction: Under 47.5
We don’t buy the reverse line movement for the total here, and we’re going against the sharps with a play on the under.