LSU vs. Arkansas Free Picks 11/12/16 Week 11 CFB Predictions
Recent results have seen the LSU Tigers drop to No. 24 in the College Football Playoff rankings, but they’ll be looking to rise again with a win against No. 25 Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium Saturday night. Arkansas has won the last two meetings between the two SEC rivals and won 31-14 on the road as a 6.5-point dog last year.
The Razorbacks opened as 6.5-point underdog at the market-setting Pinnacle Sportsbook but you can now get a full touchdown on the home team. The line move is not in line with the public betting percentages as 60 percent of the wagers are backing Arkansas, and the reverse line movement theory would advocate a play on LSU in this spot. Close to 60 percent of the tickets are backing a high-scoring contest and we have seen the total move to 46.5 points from the opener of 44.5.
The LSU Tigers had a three-game winning streak come to an end when they lost to the No.1 Alabama by a score of 10-0 at home last week. The Tigers were held to just 125 total yardage as quarterback Danny Etling suffered through his worst game of the season, completing 11-of-24 passes for 92 yards and an interception, but LSU LB Kendell Beckwith recorded a career-high 16 tackles in the contest.
The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. This will be LSU’s third road game of the season, and they’re 0-2 straight up and against the spread in the first two.
The Arkansas Razorbacks have alternated wins and losses through their last six games, and coming off a 31-10 win against Florida they should lose this game if we are to believe that trend. The Razorbacks looked good though, outgaining their opponent by a total of 225 yards and running back Rawleigh Williams III had a big game with 148 yards and a pair of scores. The Razorbacks offense goes as Williams III goes, and he is averaging 151.3 yards in the last three wins and 49 yards in the last three losses.
The Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game but 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
The Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks +7
The sharp money is not always right, and this is a tough spot for LSU following last week’s defeat to Bama. LSU might very well win the game outright, but the Razorbacks should cover the spread comfortably.