Miami (Fla) Hurricanes vs. Virginia Tech Hokies NCAAF Free Pick
I like Miami tonight in this Thursday night game. They are playing with revenge from last year’s 42-24 loss, and have had almost two weeks to get ready for this one. In 2011, Al Golden and his team played @ Virginia Tech as a 7 point road dog and covered the spread in a 38-35 loss. Golden then got his revenge in 2012 with a 30-12 win.
Last year the Hurricanes took a 42-24 loss, and I am looking for Golden to get his revenge again tonight. I will note that in last year’s game, Miami’s star RB Duke Johnson did not play, nor did Phillip Dorsett who is the Hurricanes leading receiver this season.
The Hurricanes have gotten outgained in their 3 road games, but only by a small amount (19,21 and 92 yards). I strongly feel that the 3 teams (G Tech, Nebraska, and Louisville) all have better offenses than this Virginia Tech team that continues to struggle with their run game. Miami’s run defense is steadily improving, and they have a Top 20 pass defense that should be able to force some turnovers as the Virginia Tech QB, Brewer, has 11 INT’s on the season already.
I really think that Miami will be able to run the ball on Virginia Tech, and control the line of scrimmage in this game. The Hurricanes have a premier back in Duke Johnson (7.2 yards a carry and they are averaging 5.3 yards a carry as a team. Virginia Tech, on the other hand is only averaging 3.9 yards a carry as a team.
Virginia Tech has not been impressive at home this season. They are 2-2 SU with the wins coming against West Michigan and William & Mary. The losses came against Georgia Tech and East Carolina. This is a big problem as they lost to a team that excels in the run game with Georgia Tech and then a team that excels in the passing game with E. Carolina. Look for Miami to use a bit of both in this game as they should put up anywhere from 24-31 points in this one which will be enough to get the cover vs. a Hokie team that has still not scored more than 35 points this season. I strongly feel that the Hurricanes have the better athletes on offense and it will be apparent in this game.
In closing, Miami is averaging 7 yards a play on offense and they have the better, more efficient offense. On defense, I will call it about equal for both teams, but I think the Hurricanes have a better defensive line and a better secondary. With the V. Tech QB throwing being turnover prone, I give Miami the advantage in this one. I also give Miami the motivational edge as they are playing with revenge. HC Golden is 7-1 ATS on the road coming off a DD SU win and he will have his team ready tonight on Primetime TV as Miami FL. is 17-3 SU all time on ESPN Thursday Nights.
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Play on: Miami (Fla) Hurricanes -3