Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns NBA Free Pick
Play On: Heat/Suns UNDER 202.5 points.
This matchup has a low-scoring game written all over it. While the Suns come in with one of the better offenses in the league, averaging 105.9 ppg, Phoenix is going to have a difficult time pushing the pace. The Suns are not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 4th game in 5 nights. The big key here is that the Heat have lost 4 straight and I believe it will lead to an inspired effort defensively. Miami is only giving up 97.5 ppg on the road and each of the last 3 meetings in this series has seen a combined score of 200 or less points.
Key Trends/System – UNDER is 13-4 in Miami’s last 17 games after allowing 100 or more in 2 straight, 9-1 in their last 10 off a SU loss by 10 or more points and 5-1 in their last 6 on the road. UNDER is also 11-4 in the Sun’s last 15 against the Eastern Conference, 22-11 in their last 33 after scoring 110 or more points and 7-3-1 in their last 11 when playing on no rest. Add it up and that’s a 67-20 (77%) system telling us to BET THE UNDER 202.5!
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