Michigan State vs. Indiana Betting Preview September 30, 2016

Published September 30, 2016.
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Matchup: Michigan State Spartans (2-1) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (2-1)
Saturday, October 1, 2016 – 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Indiana
Odds: MSU -6.5 / IND +6.5
Over/Under: 52

The Indiana Hoosiers will be looking for revenge after getting clobbered 52-26 as a 14.5-point underdog to the No. 16 Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing last year. The Spartans have not lost to Indiana since 2005 and have won seven straight meetings, but the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five head-to-head matchups. Each of the last eight meetings dating back to 2006 have gone over the total.

The bookmakers opening line for this contest was Spartans -7.5, but we’ve seen the spread drop a full point despite 75 percent of the public backing the visitors. Indiana seems to be the choice of the sharps; one must however wonder if that’s still the case now when the Spartans are favored by less than a touchdown.

The Spartans Last Game

Michigan State suffered its first defeat of the season last week as the Spartans were dominated by Wisconsin in their conference opener and lost 30-6 despite closing a 3.5-point favorite. They outgained the Badgers 325-317 but allowed 122 yards on the ground and were unable to overcome four turnovers, three of which were interceptions.

The Hoosiers Last Game

Indiana is also coming off its first loss of the season after a 33-28 setback as a 7-point home favorite against Wake Forest. The result did not quite reflect the game as the Hoosiers outgained the Deacons 611-352 in total yardage. Richard Lagow had a career day, throwing for 496 yards and three touchdowns, but he also threw five interceptions which ended up costing Indiana the game. They were also just 6-16 on third and fourth down and failed to force a single turnover.

Key Trends

  • Spartans are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 road games.
  • Spartans are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
  • Hoosiers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Hoosiers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Hoosiers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games overall.
  • Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 conference games.
  • Under is 9-3 in Spartans last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Over is 40-17-1 in Hoosiers last 58 games overall.
  • Over is 36-16-1 in Hoosiers last 53 conference games
  • Over is 35-16-2 in Hoosiers last 53 games following a straight up loss.

Our Lean: Michigan State -6.5

Go with the Spartans to bounce back from their embarrassing defeat as long as you can get it at less than a touchdown.

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