New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Free Pick – June 07, 2016
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+118)
By Scott Rickenbach
After the rain out yesterday this is now expected to be the pitching match-up for Game One of the double-header Tuesday. Certainly the Mets Steven Matz has better numbers than the Pirates Jonathan Niese in this battle of southpaws.
However, it appears that far too much weight is being given to the pitching match-up here and not enough weight is being given to how these teams will match-up. Simply put, the Pirates have been worlds better in games against left-handed starters this season. In those games, Pittsburgh is averaging 5.6 runs per game which is exactly double of the 2.8 runs per game that New York has averaged in their games against lefty starters.
The Mets lost 1-0 Sunday and that was the 6th time in their last 10 games that they have been held to 2 runs or less. The Pirates are also off of a home loss Sunday but they are still 5-2 in their last 7 home games and Pittsburgh has averaged 6.4 runs per game in these 7 games. It’s no fluke either as the Pirates have averaged 10.6 hits per game in these 7 contests.
Though one might expect the Mets to bounce back since they are off of a shutout loss Sunday, the opposite has been true as New York is 10-20 the past three seasons when they are off of a shutout loss.
The Pirates are 8-3 this season and 25-9 the last 3 seasons when they are at home and the game has a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs.
Consider a small play on Pittsburgh on the money line in GAME 1 of the DH as it is my free pick for Tuesday.
Best of luck, The Bulldog
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