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NFL Trends to Watch September 2019

By Marc Lawrence

Much like the game itself, we like to break the NFL season down into quarters from September thru December. Listed below are the Good, Bad and Ugly team trends for this month broken down into Home, Away, Favorite, Dog, and Division results.  Enjoy…

 

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): 4-Teams

Baltimore 32-17 ATS – Detroit 31-20 ATS
Seattle 30-20 ATS – San Francisco 28-18 ATS

The Ravens will have two opportunities to improve their record. The first on Sept.15 looks solid against Arizona, but the more fascinating contest is two weeks later against Cleveland (9/22).

Detroit was a mess in the preseason and will attempt to put that behind them. That won’t be easy against two AFC West powers in the Los Angeles Chargers (9/15) and Kansas City (9/29).

The “12th Man” will be in full throat for the home opener versus Cincinnati (9/8) and two Sunday’s later when New Orleans (9/22) visits the Northwest before it turns rainy.

With two road games and a bye, just one homer for the 49ers and it’s a tough one in facing Pittsburgh (9/22).

Keep an eye on (Bad): 2-Teams

N. Y. Jets  20-30 ATS
Washington 20-33 ATS

The New York Jets start the season with an AFC East battle with Buffalo in New Jersey. Eight days later is a prime time ESPN game against the Browns (9/16) with Sam Darnold facing Baker Mayfield!

The tough times are likely to continue for Washington at home, with Dallas (9/15) and Chicago (9/23) in back to back encounters.

 

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): 2-Teams

Dallas 33-20 ATS
Kansas City 36-19 ATS

The Cowboys travel to do battle with the hated Redskins (9/15) in the first road excursion of the year and 14 days later head to the bayou to take on the big bad Saints (9/29).

Kansas City will be tested with three roadies this month. However, it’s not a whos-who of football giants, having to play at Jacksonville (9/8), at Oakland (9/15) and at Detroit (9/29). Still, a 2-1 ATS record keeps the line moving for the Chiefs.

Keep an eye on (Bad): 3-Teams

Chicago 20-30 ATS – L.A. Rams 17-32 ATS
Pittsburgh 18-32 ATS

After hosting Green Bay in the NFL’s first contest of the year, Chicago has 10 days to prepare for a trip to Denver (9/15) and eight more days before colliding with Washington (/23). Being the better team in both instances, the Bears can eliminate their name from this list.

The L.A. Rams are not the sorry bunch that left St. Louis and they are probable favorites at Carolina (9/8) and Cleveland (9/22).

For years, Pittsburgh has been a slow starter. That could continue, especially away from home with games at New England (9/8) and a trip to Santa Clara to face the 49ers (9/22).

 

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good):

Seattle 32-21 ATS

Pete Carroll’s crew is favored in their first contest of the season vs. the Bengals (9/8). The Seahawks will also hand out points in the desert on the last Sunday of the month in Arizona. Though possible, Seattle might catch a couple of points when Drew Brees (9/22) pays a call.

Bad: Arizona 11-22 ATS

Just as well, the Cardinals don’t figure to be favored this month.

Keep an eye on (Bad): 2-Teams

Chicago 16-24 ATS
L.A. Rams 16-30 ATS

Both the Bears and Rams earned these lousy records as poor teams. That is not the case today. Chicago will hand out points in their four September assignments, seeking improvement. While the Rams will be the oddsmakers’ choice three times, with a tilt in Cleveland (9/22) the only one up in the air.

 

UNDERDOGS

Keep an eye on (Good): 4-Teams

Dallas 27-13 ATS
Minnesota 27-18 ATS
Denver 17-11 ATS
Kansas City 31-18 ATS

For as long as one can recall, the Cowboys have relished the role of the underdog. The one time Dallas will catch points is in New Orleans on the 29th. Minnesota could be a tiny underdog at Green Bay (9/15) in their initial away outing, but that is not for certain. The trip to the Windy City on the 29th should have the Vikes at about +3.

These are not your John Elway or Peyton Manning Broncos. Denver has lots of holes and will be an underdog in their first three assignments before hosting Jacksonville.

Though Kansas City has a trio of away contests, they don’t figure to receive points. Stay tuned.

Keep an eye on (Bad)

Pittsburgh 12-21 ATS

The Steelers opened as six-point underdogs at New England to kick start 2019. The confrontation two weeks later vs. the Niners depends in part how both clubs start.

 

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good):

Kansas City 25-13 ATS

Kansas City has one AFC West conflict and it’s in Oak-Town on Sept. 15, where they are 18-9 SU and ATS.

Keep an eye on (Bad):

Oakland 12-22 ATS

After facing Denver on Monday night at home on Sept.9, the Raiders only have six days to prepare for the Chiefs (see above). Oakland better handle the Broncos first.

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