NFL Week 11 Best Bets – Reverse Line Movement Picks

Posted 1 year ago in Featured NFL Free Picks

Reverse line movement refers to betting lines that move in the opposite direction of what the public betting percentages would suggest. Reverse line movement occurs when bigger bets are placed on the non-public side of the matchup, something commonly known as sharp money or smart money. You can follow line movements and public betting percentages on our live betting odds page.

We have identified a pair of games that fit the criteria above on Week 11 of NFL action for Sunday November 20, 2016.

NFL Week 11 Best Bets – Reverse Line Movement Picks

Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings -2.5

The reeling Minnesota Vikings have lost four straight games and failed to cover the spread in each of those contests. The betting public have lost fate in the same team that against all odds opened the season with a perfect 5-0 record, and close to 70 percent of the tickets have backed Arizona as of Saturday afternoon.

Minnesota is despite its recent struggles still 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and perhaps those trends can explain why sharp money has moved the spread in the opposite direction compared to the betting percentages. The game opened as a pick’em, but the Vikings are as of the publication of this article a 2.5-point favorite at market-setting bookmaker 5Dimes.

The 4-4-1 Cardinals are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and just 3-6 ATS overall this season. They won by just three points as a 13.5-point favorite against San Francisco last week, and Arizona will now find it very hard to catch Seattle at the top of the division. Minnesota meanwhile is tied with Detroit at the top of the NFC North with a 5-4 record, and a win here would be massive for the Vikes. Also consider the revenge factor after a 23-20 Arizona win last year.

New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers +11.5

The bookmakers had the 7-2 Patriots as a 13.5-point favorite when they first released the lines for Sunday’s meeting with the 1-8 San Francisco 49ers. A large spread that still has not scared off the public with more than 80 percent of the wagers firmly behind New England to win against the spread. The sharp money does not seem to agree with the public as the 49ers now “only” get 11.5-points as of Saturday afternoon.

So what do the sharps see here that would suggest that the 49ers could possibly compete with the Pats? First of all; San Franscisco is coming off one of its better games of the season in a 23-20 loss at Arizona last week. It was the first time in its last eight games it managed to cover the spread. Carlos Hyde, who rushed for six touchdowns in the first five games, returned to the lineup after missing two contests with a shoulder injury, and Colin Kaepernick has rushed for as least 55 yards in three of his four outings since replacing Blaine Gabbert as the starter under center.

New England lost 31-24 against Seattle last Sunday, and it has a division game against the Jets in New York on deck next week. Tom Brady could be without his favorite target in tight end Rob Gronkowski, who suffered a chest injury Sunday and had not practiced through Thursday.

The 49ers may have among the worst records in the league, but they relish the challenge of competing with better teams if we are to believe 49ers coach Chip Kelly. “I think if you’re a competitor, you get excited about playing in games like this,” Kelly told reporters. “You don’t think of it as, ‘Oh my God, we don’t have any hope.”

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