NFL Week 12 Spot Bet – Patriots vs. Jets Free Picks 11/27/16
The New England Patriots opened as a 8.5-point favorite at market setting sports book Pinnacle. Nearly 77 percent of the tickets have since backed the Pats, but the spread has moved in the opposite direction with most books now giving the New York Jets “only” 7.5 points. The amount wagered as of Sunday 2 AM EST is reportedly $900,000 to $41,000 in favor of the Patriots, so the drop of the line is not because of big wagers on the Jets. The total opened at 47 but is as of the publication of this article set at 46 at all the big shops in Vegas and off-shore.
Banged Up Patriots
The biggest reason for the line moves for both the spread and the total are the reports of both star quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski being questionable due to injuries. Brady hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2008 and returned to practice Friday after missing the previous two days while the Gronk has practiced all week in a reduced role after sitting out Week 11.
Three other Patriots are listed as questionable as well – Martellus Bennett, Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan – but they are all expected to play vs. Jets, per sources.
Jets Out of Fuel
The Jets are out of playoff contention but have decided to stick with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick over rookie Bryce Petty. Fitzpatrick has thrown eight touchdown passes and a league-leading 13 interceptions this season. The Pats sacked Colin Kaepernick five times in a 30-17 win at San Francisco last week, and Fitzpatrick will be put under heavy pressue here. The Jets have averaged only 17.9 points per game and will take on a Patriots defense that has held opponents to 18.0 points per game. Chances are we’ll see Petty get a few snaps if Fitzpatrick plays the way he’s done in recent weeks.
Under is 6-1 in Patriots last seven road games and 4-0 in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record. With the Jets struggling to score points and the Pats banged up we think the best NFL Week 12 Spot Bet and our Patriots vs. Jets Free Pick is on the under.
Our Prediction: UNDER 46 POINTS
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