NFL Week 14 Best Bets – Reverse Line Movement Picks

Posted 1 year ago in Featured NFL Free Picks

Reverse line movement refers to betting lines that move in the opposite direction of what the public betting percentages would suggest. Reverse line movement occurs when bigger bets are placed on the non-public side of the matchup, something commonly known as sharp money or smart money. You can follow line movements and public betting percentages on our live betting odds page.

We have identified three games that fit the criteria above on Week 14 of NFL action for Sunday December 11, 2016.


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NFL Week 14 Best Bets – Reverse Line Movement Picks

San Diego Chargers (PK) vs. Carolina Panthers

The 4-8 Carolina Panthers opened as a 1.5-point favorite against the 5-7 San Diego Chargers. With their chances of making a second straight trip to the Super Bowl all but gone, the sharps seem to have lost faith in the Panthers as the teams are now a pick’em despite 72 percent of the wagers backing Carolina. The Panthers have allowed 75 points in back-to-back defeats at Seattle and Oakland, and they’re just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

The Chargers have alternated wins and losses throughout their last six games, and coming off a 28-21 loss to Tampa Bay perhaps it’s time for another San Diego win. The visitors are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Chicago Bears (+7) vs. Detroit Lions

The 8-4 Detroit Lions are top of the NFC North, and they should defeat the 3-9 Chicago Bears with ease. While still asked to cover a large spread, it’s notable that the line has moved from Detroit -9.5 to -7, despite 70 percent of the tickets backing the Lions. Chicago is coming off a dominant 26-6 win against San Francisco, and the Bears have covered the spread in four of their last five games, so it’s not totally inconceivable that they’ll keep this a close game.

The Lions are on a four-game winning streak and impressed in a 28-13 win as a 6.5-point underdog at New Orleans last week. Detroit is  2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points though, and the Bears might be able to keep this within a touchdown.

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3)

Perhaps one of the least sexy matchups on the card this week takes place in California where the 3-9 New York Jets will visit the 1-11 San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco opened as a 1-point favorite but is now asked to cover a full field goal, despite catching only 41 percent of the tickets. The recent meetings between the two teams could give us an indication why sharps seem to prefer the Niners here as they’ve covered the spread in each of the last four head-to-head meetings.

Bryce Petty, who threw a touchdown pass and had two interceptions in relief of Ryan Fitzpatrick when New York was embarrassed by Indianapolis 41-10 on Monday night, has been handed the keys to the Jets offense for the final four games of the regular season. A smart move by the Jets, but can he help them snap a four-game skid? The Niners are giving Colin Kaepernick another chance despite him completing just 1-of-5 passes for four yards in a 26-6 loss at a snowy Chicago last week. He’ll be better prepared for this game home at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California.

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