Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves NBA Free Pick
Play On: Timberwolves/Thunder OVER 205.5 points.
I think we are seeing some exceptional value here on the total. Minnesota allowed just 82-points in a surprising 90-82 win at home over the Trail Blazers last time out. The key there is they caught Portland in a great spot. The Trail Blazers were in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and were playing their 3rd road game in 4 days. While the Thunder are playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back, they are fairly rested and simply can’t take any nights off right now, as they currently sit in 11th place in the West. Minnesota is on pace to give up 108.8 ppg and I look for their defense to struggle against Oklahoma City, who has scored 100+ in 5 of their last 6. The other key here is the Thunder are not as strong defensively on the road and will be lacking intensity on the defensive side of the ball after last night’s big game against the Cavaliers.
System – OVER is 44-16 (73%) in games with a total of 200 or more points, where you have two teams who are shooting just 41.5% to 43.5% from the floor on the season. BET THE OVER 205.5!
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