Ottawa vs. Toronto CFL Free Pick – July 13, 2016
CFL | Jul 13, 2016
Ottawa vs. Toronto
Total to go UNDER 52.5
By Art Aronson
After falling 42-20 at home to Hamilton in Week 1, Toronto has looked a lot better with a 30-17 win at Saskatchewan in Week 2 and an impressive 25-14 victory at BC last weekend. The Boatmen have been getting the job done with smothering defensive play and impressive special teams performances.
Ottawa comes into this one sitting at 2-0-1, a 45-37 Week 1 victory at Edmonton was decided in OT and was followed up by an impressive 28-13 win at Montreal in Week 2. Last week Ottawa would tie Calgary 26-26, the Redblacks would fail to cover the 1.5 point spread and the total would push on 52.
From simply a trend based stand point, this selection is about as strong as it gets, as Ottawa has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five on the road, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five at home.
While recent history may suggest that we’re in for a higher scoring affair tonight (with the last three between the team’s going OVER the number), we feel the value has now swung the other way.
Also note that Ottawa has seen the total go UNDER the number in 20 of its last 35 when playing the role of underdog, while Toronto has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last seven as the favorite.
Consider a second look at the UNDER in this one.