Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Virginia Cavaliers NCAAB Free Pick 02/16/15
Play on the total to go over 117 points.
The pointspread in this game is set at Virginia -12.5 and it opened at -13.5 in favor of the Cavs at home tonight and has dropped a full point. No doubt for good reason with a big spread here because Virginia is the real deal and the Panthers are dead deplorable on the road if you back them against the Las Vegas Line. They are 1-9-1 ATS their last 11 road games. But I am not interested in the side play in this matchup tonight which kicks off Big Monday on ESPN. I am interested in a totals play int his game.
The line for the Over / Under totals play is 117.5 points. It has gone up a full point since the opening lines. While Virginia’s defense is no doubt very stingy and a Top 10 ranked defense, Pitt has gone over the total in 9 out of their last 10 games, and 16 out of their last 21 against ACC opponents, and currently in their last 5 games Pitt has allowed 72 ppg while scoring 75 ppg and shooting 51% from the floor in their last 5 games.
When I average the offense’s for these teams all in the last 5 games for my averages, the offenses together average 135 ppg and the defense’s allow 129 ppg. I tend to look at the last 5 games for stats more so than the entire season at this point, because teams become cyclical at this point and tend to play within recent averages. Both teams for the season hover right at 70% from the charity stripe as well, and I like this game to go over the stated total as both teams will be geared up to play on national TV, and quite frankly the stats do not lie.
Free Pro Pick on the OVER 117.5
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