PSU vs. Wisconsin Free Pick 12/03/16 – Big 10 Championship Game
The No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions will take on No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana in the Big 10 Championship Game Saturday night. The games an 8 PM EST start and will be broadcast on FOX. The chances of either team to rach the College Football Playoff are slim after Washington’s win over Colorado Friday night.
The Badgers opened as a 3-point favorite at most shops online and in Vegas, and the line is holding steady as for now despite almost two thirds of the tickets backing Wisconsin. The total has dropped half a point from hte opener of 47.5 points. Almost 60 percent of the wagers backing the over.
Penn State Nittany Lions
The 10-2 Nittany Lions are riding an eight-game winning streak following a 49-10 blowout loss at Michigan in Week 4. That includes an impressive 24-21 win against Ohio State as a 17.5-point underdog.
They handed Michigan State a 45-12 defeat last week as quarterback Trace McSorley threw for career highs of 376 yards and four TDs. Junior Curtis Godwin is McSorley’s favorite target with 47 receptions for 762 yards and nine TDs and he recorded two scores against Michigan State. Nittany Lions star runner Saquon Barkley (1,219 yards and 15 touchdowns) sprained his ankle in the second half of last week’s rout of Michigan State but has practiced all week long according to Penn Live.
Penn State is averaging 37 points per game on offense while holding opponents to just 23 points per game on the defensive end. Since linebackers Brandon Bell and Jason Cabinda returned from early-season injuries, the defense has moved up to 20th in total defense (346.8) and hasn’t yielded a touchdown in the last two games.
Nittany Lions are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight conference games but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. Over is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last five games overall.
The 10-2 Wisconsin Badgers have won each of their last six games, although that’s to be expected as they’ve been heavily favored each time. They’re coming off a 31-17 win against Minnesota despite trailing 17-7 at half-time. Each of the Badgers touchdowns in that game came on the ground with running-back Corey Clement leading the way with a pair. Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook is questionable after suffering a concussion in the first half of last week’s win and would be replaced by Bart Houston if he can’t play here.
Wisconsin is limiting opponents just 14 points per game, third in the nation this season but is also averaging a mediocre 28.5 points per game on the offensive end.
Badgers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four conference games and 6-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 9-3 in Badgers last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.