|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-18-18||Mavs +5 v. Nuggets||118-126||Loss||-105||10 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Dallas Mavericks +5
The Dallas Mavericks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They are coming off back-to-back upset losses to the Suns and Kings, which followed up 12-3 run that has the Mavericks sitting in first place in their division right now. They are rested and ready to go as they’ll be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.
I think the Nuggets are in a big letdown spot tonight. They have managed to win three straight at home over the Grizzlies, Thunder and Raptors despite playing without three starters in Gary Harris, Paul Millsap and Will Barton. Teams can play well in the short-term with injuries, but it catches up to them over the long haul due to depth issues. I think it starts catching up for the Nuggets tonight, especially off their big win over the Raptors last time out as they won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Mavs.
Dallas had Denver’s number last season, going 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their four meetings. Their two losses came on the road by only 2 and 3 points, and they won their two home meetings with the Nuggets by 17 and 11 points. And you have to consider that the Nuggets are in a lot worse shape right now than they were last year, while the Mavericks are one of the most improved teams in the NBA and almost 100% healthy.
The Nuggets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents, while the Mavericks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Northwest Division foes. Dallas is 29-11 ATS in its lsat 40 games following an ATS loss, and 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss. Take the Mavericks Tuesday.
|12-18-18||Northern Illinois v. UAB -1.5||Top||13-37||Win||100||270 h 50 m||Show|
20* NIU/UAB Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on UAB -1.5
The UAB Blazers are a tremendous story. To go from not having a football program at all for two years to going 8-5 in 2017 and then 10-3 and a Conference USA Championship this season is one of the most remarkable feats I’ve ever seen in college football. These players love head coach Bill Clark, and they’ll be highly motivated to get another win to cap off this impressive season.
I like their chances of winning this game against a Northern Illinois team that just isn’t very good. Yes, the Huskies won the MAC, but that conference was way down this season and always struggles in bowl games. And they had to erase a 29-10 deficit in the second half against Buffalo to win 30-29. They’ve already reached the pinnacle.
I’ll gladly fade NIU head coach Rod Carey, who just can’t seem to make anything work in bowl games. Carey is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in his career in bowl games, and not only are his teams losing, they are getting crushed. Carey’s teams are getting outscored by 25 points per game on average, and they losing by 18 points per game against the spread on average. In none of those five games did they even stay within a touchdown of the spread!
Yes, Northern Illinois has a good defense, but their offense is atrocious. QB Marcus Childers only averages 5.4 yards per attempt with a 15-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the season. He also rushes for just 2.8 yards per carry on his ridiculous 176 rushing attempts this season. The Huskies score just 20.7 points per game this season. They are getting outgained by 22.8 yards per game on the year. It’s just not an offense I’m willing to get behind, and I’ll gladly fade it.
UAB does have a respectable offense that puts up 29.3 points and 400.1 yards per game. They also have an elite defense that gives up just 17.3 points and 300.2 yards per game on the year. They are outgaining their opponents by 100 yards per game, which is the sign of a good team and one I want to put my money behind, especially laying less than a field goal here.
Keep in mind UAB’s season stats got skewed a little too in the final game of the regular season. They already had a trip to the C-USA Championship clinched, and they didn’t even show up in their 3-27 loss to Middle Tennessee in which they were outgained by 305 yards. They rested their starters, and then came back the next week and won 27-25 at Middle Tennessee in the rematch. So if you throw out that meaningless game, the Blazers have outgained the other 12 opponents by over 1600 yards on the season and by 134 yards per game.
The Huskies are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games. Northern Illinois is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. C-USA opponents. UAB is 32-10 ATS in its last 42 games following a two-game road trip. Again, the Huskies are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games. And the MAC is 6-22 SU over the last five years in bowl games, and 1-10 SU the last two years. Bet UAB Tuesday.
|12-18-18||Xavier v. Missouri +3||56-71||Win||100||7 h 27 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri +3
Xavier is getting too much respect for what it has done in the past, including a 29-6 season last year. But they lost nearly everyone in G Trevon Bluiett, G J.P. Macura, F Kerem Kanter, F Kaiser Gates and F Sean O’Mara from last year’s team. They also lost head coach Chris Mack to Louisville. Their leading returning scorer averaged just 8.7 PPG and they are clearly rebuilding.
That has been evident in Xavier’s 7-4 SU & 4-6 ATS start tot he season. And they’ve only played one true road game this season, which was a 15-point loss at Cincinnati as 6.5-point dogs. They also lost to SDSU and Auburn on a neutral, as well as Wisconsin at home. Their seven wins have come against IUPUI, Evansville, Illinois, Miami Ohio, Oakland, Ohio and Eastern Kentucky with six of those wins coming at home.
Missouri is an improved team this season with three returning starters and some nice talent for Cuonzo Martin. The Tigers are 6-3 with two of their losses coming on the road to very good Iowa State and Kansas State teams. They did lose at home to Temple 77-79, but Temple is arguably the best team in the AAC. They beat UCF, another AAC title contender outright as underdogs. They also upset Oregon State on a neutral. They should not be home dogs to Xavier tonight.
The Tigers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games. The Musketeers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Xavier is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a win. My final factor favoring Missouri is that they have had 10 days off to prepare for Xavier, while the Musketeers only have two days to get ready for the Tigers after playing on Saturday. Roll with Missouri Tuesday.
|12-17-18||76ers v. Spurs||Top||96-123||Win||100||8 h 3 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs PK
The San Antonio Spurs had their four-game winning streak come to an end with an ugly 93-98 home loss to the Bulls last time out. Look for them to respond in a big way here against the Philadelphia 76ers and continue their success at home, where they are 11-5 SU & 10-6 ATS on the season.
The Spurs catch the Philadelphia 76ers in a very tough spot here tonight. The 76ers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after winning in Cleveland last night. It's a long flight to San Antonio, and I don’t think the 76ers will have much left in the tank tonight.
The Spurs are 12-2 SU in their last 14 meetings with the 76ers overall. The Spurs are 19-2 SU in their last 21 home meetings with the 76ers. The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of .600 or better. The Spurs are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games.
San Antonio is 16-4 ATS in December home games over the last three seasons. The Spurs are 14-4 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. The Spurs are 16-5 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take the Spurs Monday.
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers +6.5||Top||12-9||Win||100||152 h 37 m||Show|
20* Saints/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Carolina +6.5
The Carolina Panthers opened 6-2 and were becoming a pretty big public team. But now the public has been burnt by the Panthers week after week, and they’re going to be off of them now. It’s certainly time to ‘buy low’ on the Panthers, who have now lost five consecutive games despite being favored in four of the five.
When you dig deeper into the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Panthers are better than their 6-7 record. In fact, the Panthers have now outgained eight of their last nine opponents. They are outgaining opponents by 25.5 yards per game on the season. That’s the sign of a good team, not one that currently has a losing record heading into Week 15.
Most would believe the Panthers are ready to quit, but I beg to differ. Just look at the standings and it’s easy to see that the Panthers are still very much alive to make the playoffs. They sit at 6-7, just a half-game back of the 6-6-1 Vikings for the final wild card spot in the NFC. And their closest contenders in the Redskins (6-7) and Eagles (6-7) both have huge injury issues, and both are massive road underdogs this week.
Plus, Cam Newton received a broom from an anonymous person. That broom signifies the season sweep the Saints put on them last year. They won both regular season meetings, plus beat the Panthers 31-26 at home in the playoffs. Newton already made his comments about the broom, and there’s no question he and the rest of his teammates want some serious revenge here at home Monday night.
The Saints are ripe for the taking right now. They just aren’t playing well at all over the past three weeks against the Falcons, Cowboys and Bucs. They were outgained by 54 yards at home by the Falcons, by 132 yards by the Cowboys in a 10-13 road loss, and they only outgained the Bucs by 19 yards last week. They were fortunate to win that game after trailing 14-0.
The most staggering numbers are the poor offensive numbers the Saints are putting up. Drew Brees may be starting to show his age, and the Saints’ lack of weapons outside Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are starting to catch up with them. They were held to 312 total yards by a bad Falcons defense, to just 176 yards by a good Cowboys defense, and to just 298 yards against a bad Bucs defense. That’s an average of just 262 yards per game in their last three games.
The Saints can’t be expected to go on the road and win by a TD or more to cover this inflated 6.5-point spread with this kind of an offense. And the Panthers still have a very good defense that is capable of slowing down Brees and company, especially outdoors on grass. This is also an improved Carolina offense that is averaging 378 yards per game this season.
The Panthers have a big home/road split this season. While they are just 1-6 on the road, they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at home and outscoring opponents by 7.6 points per game. Their offense has exploded for 30.8 points per game at home this year. Their only home loss came to the Seahawks by a field goal 27-30 in a game in which they controlled the whole way until giving up a 35-yard TD pass on 4th and long with three minutes left to tie it, and then a field goal with no time left on the clock.
Plays against road teams (New Orleans) - who outscore their opponents by 10 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 25-7 (78.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Carolina is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. good offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season. Ron Rivera is 22-6 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Carolina. The Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet the Panthers Monday.
|12-17-18||Bulls +13 v. Thunder||96-121||Loss||-109||8 h 32 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +13
The Chicago Bulls have been more competitive since Jim Boylan took over as head coach. They have gone 3-2-1 ATS in their last six games with an outright upset at San Antonio as 9-point dogs and an outright upset over Oklahoma City at home as 8-point dogs.
Now, the Bulls are catching 13 points here on the road in the rematch with the Thunder, and it’s simply too much. That’s especially the case when you consider the Bulls have gotten a lot healthier in recent weeks. They’ve gotten Lauri Markkanen (15.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG), Kris Dunn (11.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.5 APG) and Bobby Portis (10.7 PPG, 8.4 RPG) back from injury. This team now has more depth than they’ve had all season.
The Thunder moved into first place in the Western Conference recently, and have been overvalued since. They have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. And once again they are laying too many points here against the Bulls as massive 13-point favorites.
The Bulls have had the Thunder’s number in recent meetings, going 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS with three outright upsets. Oklahoma City is just 9-26 ATS when revenging a straight up loss as a favorite over the last two seasons. Worse yet, the Thunder are 3-13 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite over the last two years. Roll with the Bulls Monday.
|12-16-18||Knicks +12 v. Pacers||99-110||Win||100||5 h 5 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +12
The love for the Indiana Pacers is starting to get out of hand here Sunday. They are 12-point favorites over the New York Knicks. Well, the Pacers have only been favored by more than 8 points once all season. That was as 11.5-point home favorites over the Hawks, and the Pacers failed to cover in an 8-point win.
The reason the Pacers are getting so much love right now is because they have won six in a row coming in while going 5-1 ATS in the process. They are coming off back-to-back upset wins over the Bucks and 76ers as well. If anything, that sets them up for a letdown spot here as they won’t be nearly as motivated to face the Knicks. It’s time to ’sell high’ on the Pacers today.
Conversely, it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Knicks. They have gone just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. But they had a nice 126-124 (OT) road win over the Hornets last time out where they showed a ton of heart in coming back from a big deficit. And the Knicks certainly want revenge from a 101-107 home loss to the Pacers in their first and only meeting this season. I like them quite a bit here catching 12 points on the road in the rematch.
Five of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less. Plays on underdogs (New York) - revenging a same season loss, off a huge upset win as a road underdog of 10 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. New York will put up more of a fight than this line suggests tonight. Bet the Knicks Sunday.
|12-16-18||Seahawks v. 49ers +7||23-26||Win||100||123 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on on San Francisco 49ers +7
I won with the 49ers in their upset win over the Broncos last week, and I’m back on them again this week. I got an early +7 at -130 on them when the line was +6 mostly everywhere. I thought it was worth it to pay the extra juice for the +7 at that point. But now the line has dropped all the way down to Seattle -3.5 in most places, and I still recommend a play on the 49ers at +3 or better. Obviously bet more if you got +6 or better early, and bet less if you got +3 or +3.5 late.
This has been the biggest line move in the NFL this week, and it’s warranted. The 49ers never should have been close to a TD underdog to the Seahawks. In fact, I think they win this game outright. The Seahawks are working on a short week after their huge win over the Vikings on Monday Night Football. They will be less prepared and less rested than the 49ers will be.
That win over the Vikings basically locked the Seahawks into the No. 5 seed in the NFC. They now have a 99% chance of making the playoffs. They can’t win the division, either, as the Rams clinched that already with their two head-to-head wins over the Seahawks. So Seattle is just stuck in no-man’s land here just playing out the string and anticipating their trip to the playoffs. The hard work is done. And they certainly could be looking ahead to their huge showdown with the Chiefs next week.
The Seahawks are overvalued after winning four straight games coming in and going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall. But many of those were misleading wins, or wins they had no business getting. In fact, the Seahawks have been outgained in five of their last six games overall. That’s not the sign of a good team. The only game they won the yardage battle was their 27-24 comeback win over the Packers at home in which they only outgained Green Bay by 19 yards.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are grossly undervalued due to their 3-10 record. They are much better than that as they have now outgained their opponents by 296 yards on the season, and by an average of 23 yards per game. And they are playing their best football of the season coming in. The 49ers have outgained four of their last five opponents by a combined 426 yards and by an average of 85.2 yards per game.
Nick Mullens has more passing yards (746) than any other quarterback in the NFL over the last two weeks, so he is really starting to grasp Kyle Shanahan’s offense. George Kittle had 210 receiving yards last week and ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards (1,103) by a tight end this season. And Mullens is getting help with some players who are returning from injury. RB Matt Breida should be back this week, and WR Marquise Goodwin returned last week after missing two games.
I love backing teams in division games in the 2nd meeting who just recently lost their first meeting. The Seahawks just beat the 49ers 43-16 two weeks ago in Seattle. Well, that was one of the most misleading final scores of the year. The 49ers gained 452 yards and held the Seahawks to 331 yards, outgaining them by 121 yards for the game. And the Seahawks got a 98-yard INT return TD in the final minutes that turned what would have been a 13-point game into a 27-point game. That misleading final score also has the Seahawks overvalued, and you know the 49ers are going to want to exact some revenge here at home.
Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (San Francisco) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team that wins 25% or fewer of their games on the season playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 56-25 (69.1%) ATS since 1983. Don’t be surprised if the 49ers win this game outright again this week. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|12-16-18||Cowboys v. Colts -2.5||Top||0-23||Win||100||120 h 24 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts -2.5
I was on the Colts last week in their outright win over the Texans, and I’m right back on them this week as my strongest release of the entire 2018 NFL season. They have made my 25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR label for this game against the Dallas Cowboys. Every factor in this game favors the Colts, and thus getting them as only 2.5-point home favorites is an absolute gift from oddsmakers and the biggest line mistake of the season.
It mostly comes down to the motivational mismatch in favor of the Colts. They need this game like they need blood. There are currently four teams in the AFC tied at 7-6 for the final wild card spot, and the Colts have an outside shot to win the division. The Colts have put themselves in this position by going 6-1 SU in their last seven games overall, and they aren’t about to let up now that they are so close they can taste the postseason.
The Cowboys are coming off their ’Super Bowl’, a gutsy 29-23 (OT) home win over the Philadelphia Eagles that all but locked up the division. After that win, the Cowboys currently have a 99% chance of winning the division. They would have to go 0-3 and have either the Redskins go 3-0 or the Eagles go 3-0 to not win the division. Well, the Eagles are double-digit underdogs at the Rams this week and just lost Carson Wentz, and the Redskins are mess with all their injuries and are 7-point road dogs to the Jaguars. In all reality, the Cowboys have already won the division. They will suffer a ‘hangover’ effect from that win over the Eagles.
The Colts have outgained nine of their last 10 opponents. That’s the sign of a really good team and one I want to get my money behind. Andrew Luck is back to being Andrew Luck, and the Colts have one of the most improved defenses in the NFL. All of that young talent they’ve drafted over the past several seasons is finally starting to pay off. They have held their last four opponents to an average of just 15.3 points per game.
And I really like the matchup for the Colts’ defense. Their strength is their run defense, which ranks 8th in the NFL in giving up just 102.9 rushing yards per game. They also rank 5th in the NFL in yards per carry (3.8) allowed. And they’ve been even better in recent weeks, holding their last five opponents to just 91.8 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry. They should be able to limit Zeke Elliott, who was hobbled in that win over the Eagles and could have his workload limited after touching the ball 40 times last week.
One hidden advantage here is Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich, the former offensive coordinator in Philadelphia. The Eagles clearly miss him as their offense has been atrocious this year and terrible on 3rd downs, whereas the Colts are one of the best 3rd down offenses in the NFL. But Reich knows the personnel in the NFC East, and he’s actually gone 2-0 ATS against NFC East teams this season, beating the Redskins outright and covering in a last-second loss to the Eagles. And he certainly knows Dallas’ personnel as well as it hasn’t changed much from last year. He’ll come up with a game plan to beat their defense, while also helping his defensive coaches with the Cowboys’ offense.
I think the Cowboys are starting to be overvalued now this week after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. I just don’t think they show up at all this week. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record. Plays on home favorites (Indianapolis) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Colts Sunday.
|12-16-18||Lions v. Bills -2.5||Top||13-14||Loss||-104||120 h 24 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills -2.5
The Bills really should be in the midst of a four-game winning streak right now. But since they’re not and actually failed to cover the closing line each of the last two weeks, I think they are undervalued now. Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off a misleading 17-3 win at Arizona last week, and they’ve overvalued.
Two weeks ago, the Bills outgained the Dolphins by 240 yards and lost 17-21 as 3.5-point dogs. Then last week, the Bills outgained the Jets by 120 yards and lost 23-27 as 4.5-point home favorites. They led that Jets game 14-3 and never trailed until the final minute. It’s two games they should have won but they didn’t, and they won their previous two games against the the Jets and Jaguars by a combined 34 points. In fact, the Bills have outgained four of their last five opponents by a combined 680 yards, or by an average of 136 yards per game. That’s the sign of an elite team.
The Bills have been playing much better football ever since Josh Allen returned to the lineup. Allen has actually rushed for 99 or more yards in three consecutive games, which is unheard of in today’s NFL. And if his receivers quit dropping passes, he’d be putting up even better numbers through the air. After his receivers let him down last week, I think they’ll be extra focused to make amends for their quarterback this week.
Buffalo has an elite defense, which is my favorite thing about this team. They actually rank 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 290.6 yards per game. Not too many people saw that coming heading into the season. There’s nothing fluky about it because they are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play (4.8) allowed. They will shut down the Lions this week.
Detroit is just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall. And really the Lions are fortunate to even have two wins during this stretch. They have been outgained in six of their last seven games, and eight of their last 10 games overall. That’s the sign of a bad team.
Matthew Stafford looks lost ever since trading Golden Tate and having Marvin Jones go down to injury. There just aren’t any playmakers left on this team. The score showed Detroit winning 17-3 against Arizona last week, but they were outgained by the Cardinals and managed just 218 total yards. The Lions managed only 96 passing yards on 23 attempts. This offense has been dreadful, and it won’t get any easier against the Bills this week.
Detroit is a dome team that certainly won’t enjoy the cold weather this late in the year in Buffalo. The Lions don’t have anything to play for, and I trust this young Bills team with a rookie quarterback to keep showing up because they have showed up every week that Allen has been under center. They’re the better team, and they’re only laying 2.5 points here at home. Sign me up.
Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Detroit) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 6 points or less are 36-12 (75%) ATS since 1983. The Lions are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games off a double-digit road win. The Bills are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. Detroit is 17-36-1 ATS in its last 54 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. Take the Bills Sunday.
|12-16-18||Titans v. Giants -2.5||17-0||Loss||-113||120 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Giants -2.5
The New York Giants played the toughest schedule in the NFL over their first eight games of the season. It’s no surprise they opened 1-7. But the schedule has eased up, and they’ve been handling their business since. They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall, and they are playing with a ton of confidence right now and showing up every week. If not for a blown 19-3 lead against the Eagles, they would be on a five-game winning streak.
The biggest reason for their great play is the improvement on offense. The Giants have averaged 31.4 points per game in their last five games. They hung 40 points on the Redskins last week even without Odell Beckham Jr. And Beckham feels a lot better this week and there’s a good chance he returns to the lineup. And besides Beckham and Landon Collins, the Giants are a very healthy team right now. Eli Manning knows that these could be his last games as a Giant, and he’s clearly motivated to make the most of it despite their record.
I think the Titans come in overvalued off their win over the Jaguars last week. I’ve watched many NFL games, and I haven’t seen many teams quit as blatantly obviously as the Jaguars did. They didn’t even try to tackle Derrick Henry, and as a result Henry had a career game with 238 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Defenders simply got out of his way or half-ass attempted to tackle him. I give the Titans zero credit for that win.
The Titans have not been good on the road this season. They are just 2-5 SU & 3-4 ATS in road games. They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, averaging just 19.3 points per game on the season. Their offense has been even worse on the road, scoring just 16.4 points per game an averaging only 306.9 yards per game. I just don’t trust Marcus Mariota and this offense to score enough points here to win this game against the Giants.
Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Titans are losing by a whopping 20.2 points per game on average in this spot. The Titans are 1-10 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.
Plays on home favorites (NY Giants) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with the Giants Sunday.
|12-16-18||Redskins +7 v. Jaguars||16-13||Win||100||120 h 23 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Redskins +7
The Jacksonville Jaguars are just 4-9 this season. They can’t be laying a touchdown to the Washington Redskins, or any team for that matter. Not after what I saw last week against the Titans. They didn’t even try to tackle Derrick Henry, and he rushed for 238 yards and four touchdowns in a 30-9 win by Tennessee.
I can say with confidence that the Jaguars have quit. This is a team that made the AFC Championship Game last year with big expectations coming into the season. Now, at 4-9 and with nothing to play for, they have simply packed it in. I don’t see them showing up this week at all, and even if they did they aren’t good enough to cover this 7-point spread.
Unlike the Jaguars, the Redskins still have a lot to play for. The Vikings are currently the 6th and final wild card team in the playoffs if the season were to end today at 6-6-1. Well, the Redskins are 6-7, so they are only a half-game back in the wild card. As ugly as it’s been of late for the Redskins, they can still look to the standings and realize they have a legit chance of making the playoffs. And I fully expect them to show up these final three weeks.
I also think the Redskins are being undervalued this week off their 40-16 loss to the Giants last week. Well, Mark Sanchez is maybe the worst backup QB in the NFL, and he simply gift-wrapped the Giants several points. The Redskins trailed that game 40-0 before giving way to Josh Johnson.
Sure, the Giants probably didn’t try too hard after being up 40-0, but either way I was impressed with what I saw from Johnson. He outscored the Giants 16-0 the rest of the way after he entered the game. Johnson finished 11-of-16 passing for 195 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while also leading the team with 45 rushing yards and a score on only seven carries. He averaged 12.2 yards per pass attempt and 6.4 rushing yards per attempt. Those are elite numbers.
Well, Johnson will get the start this week as Jay Gruden was impressed enough with what he saw to give him the nod. And I think the Redskins as a team realize they had no chance of winning games with Sanchez at the held, so the fact that Johnson is starting has re-energized them. They played hard for him to close out that Giants game, and they’ll play hard for him again this week against a Jaguars team that has quit. I’ll gladly take the points on the more motivated team here.
The Redskins get some good news in the injury department this week, too. Their top playmaker in Jamison Crowder is back healthy and had 87 receiving yards and a score last week. Josh Doctson had 84 receiving yards last week and should be available this week. Both starting tackles along the offensive line in Trent Williams and Morgan Moses are both healthy and probable. That will certainly help Johnson having his two starting tackles protecting him.
Look for the Redskins to run wild on the Jaguars behind Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson. The Jaguars did not want to tackle Henry last week, and they certainly don’t want to try and tackle Peterson, either. This is a Jaguars defense that has really fallen off this season, especially down the stretch. They have allowed 24 or more points in four of their last six games overall.
It’s also a Jaguars offense that has really struggled and one that is going through a quarterback controversy with Blake Bortles getting benched in favor of Cody Kessler. Kessler has led the Jaguars to an average of just 7.5 points per game in his two starts over the past two weeks. The Jaguars have yet to decide who will be under center, but it won’t matter. This offense is simply not good enough to be laying 7 points to anyone, especially not against a Redskins defense that has been respectable this season in allowing 22.8 points per game. The Jaguars average just 16.3 points per game on the season.
Washington is a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons. The Redskins are coming back to win by 6.6 points per game on average in this spot. Jacksonville is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after being outrushed by 100 or more yards in its previous game. Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss. The Jaguars are 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Redskins are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with the Redskins Sunday.
|12-16-18||Rhode Island v. West Virginia -6.5||83-70||Loss||-107||1 h 46 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -6.5
The West Virginia Mountaineers should roll the Rhode Island Rams today at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. They are the more talented, more experienced team and this is really a shorter number than it should be Sunday afternoon.
The Mountaineers returned four players who averaged at least 8.7 points per game from last year’s team. And I think they are being undervalued right now because they already have three losses on the season against a difficult schedule. But they also have wins by 7 points or more against St. Joe’s, Valpo and Pitt, and they are playing a lot better since a slow start. They’ve gone 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming as dogs to Florida on a neutral.
Rhode Island is clearly a rebuilding team. Dan Hurley bolted for greener pastures in the offseason, and it’s no surprise he left when he did because the Rams lost a ton of talent. They only have one returning starter, and lose five players who combined to average 53.6 points per game last year. That’s a lot of production gone. They don’t return a single double-digit scorer from last year’s team that went 26-8.
The early struggles during a 4-3 start for the Rams are not surprising. Their four wins have come against Bryant, Harvard (by 2), Brown and Holy Cross with three of those at home. They lost by 11 at Charleston as 2.5-point dogs, were upset at home by Stony Brook by 10 despite being 10.5-point favorites, and lost by 9 at Providence as 7-point dogs. So they’ve played an extremely weak schedule, and yet at just 4-3.
West Virginia is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the past three seasons. The Mountaineers are once again a tremendous rebounding team, which is the one thing the Rams do well. Rhode Island has terrible guard play as they are shooting just 39.9% from the field and 20.3% from 3-point range on the season. That’s not going to cut it in today’s college basketball. The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Roll with West Virginia Sunday.
|12-15-18||Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State||Top||13-45||Loss||-110||78 h 2 m||Show|
20* MTSU/App State New Orleans Bowl BAILOUT on Middle Tennessee +7
Appalachian State head coach Scott Satterfield has moved on to coach Louisville. Teams in December bowl games whose coaches were either fired or left to coach elsewhere last season went 1-5 ATS. It always leaves a lot of questions surrounding the program and a ton of distractions for the players when a coach leaves.
I don’t think Appalachian State will be focused at all with Satterfield gone. The Mountaineers have already accomplished all they wanted to this season, and losing to Middle Tennessee isn’t going to change that. They won the Sun Belt title and have already won 10 games, so there’s nothing left for them to play for.
Middle Tennessee comes in with a sour taste in its mouth from a 2-point loss to UAB in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Blue Raiders have gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss, so they have been a resilient bunch. And I look for that to be the case again here as the Blue Raiders clearly want to be playing in this game.
This is the final opportunity for head coach Rick Stockstill and son Brent Stockstill to go to battle together. Stockstill is a redshirt senior quarterback who will be playing his final game at Middle Tennessee. He is the leader of this team and will have his guys ready to go. Stockstill was already the school’s all-time leading passer prior to this season, and he is completing 70.4% of his passes with a 28-to-8 TD/INT ratio this year.
The Blue Raiders come in playing their best football of the season. They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They have outgained each of their last five opponents by an average of 145.4 yards per game. That’s impressive when you consider they’ve played C-USA champ UAB twice and Kentucky on the road during this stretch.
There’s no doubt the Blue Raiders have played the tougher schedule of these two teams as well. They played three SEC bowl teams in Georgia, Kentucky and Vanderbilt all on the road in the non-conference. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers played the 132nd-ranked schedule in the country this season. They’ve played an extremely weak slate since their loss to Penn State in the opener, and they’re still getting too much respect from that OT loss.
I’m getting the more motivated team, and arguably the better team, catching a touchdown in the New Orleans Bowl. Sign me up. Bet Middle Tennessee State Saturday night.
|12-15-18||Browns +3 v. Broncos||17-16||Win||100||103 h 24 m||Show|
15* Browns/Broncos AFC ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +3
I faded the Broncos last week and won the 49ers. And I’m fading them again this week for many of the same reasons. But a new reason popped up this week. That loss crushed Denver’s playoff hopes. They now have just a 5% chance of making the playoffs, and they are four teams ahead of them now fighting for that final wild card spot. In other words, their season is over, and I think they suffer a ‘hangover’ effect from that defeat.
Denver is overvalued right now due to going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. But two of those wins were fluky, and they beat up on an injury-riddled Bengals team in their only legit win. In fact, the Broncos have been outgained by a total of 440 yards in their last four games, or by an average of 110 yards per game. With stats like that they should be 0-4 and 1-3 at best.
But the biggest reason I faded the Broncos last week was because they lost two key players to injury the previous week. Emmanuel Sanders was lost to a season-ending Achilles injury. The loss of Sanders was huge because they already traded away Demaryius Thomas. Sanders was having a career season with 71 receptions for 868 yards and four touchdowns in 12 games. They just don’t have many playmakers left at receiver for Case Keenum.
On defense, the loss of Chris Harris is a big one. He is their top cover corner. San Francisco 3rd-string quarterback Nick Mullens lit up this Denver defense for 332 passing yards and two touchdowns. And you can bet that Baker Mayfield, who is in line to win Rookie of the Year honors, will light them up as well. The Broncos also have a couple other defensive backs that have shown up on the injury report this week.
Cleveland comes in playing very well, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Unlike Denver, there hasn’t been anything fluky about the Browns’ run. They have outgained their last four opponents in cumulative total yards, and the offense is hitting its stride by scoring 26 or more points in all three wins behind the guidance of new coordinator Freddie Kitchens. The only exception was the loss at Houston, but the Browns had a TD called back and also fumbled through the end zone for a touchdown. They have 428 total yards against that good Houston defense.
The Browns are looking up at the AFC North standings right now and feeling like they have a legit chance to win the division. And belief can go a long way in this league. And they get to play on Saturday, so they won’t get to see the results from Sunday yet. They’ll be ‘all in’ for this game, unlike Denver. The Browns trail the Steelers by two games, but the Steelers are underdogs this week and they’ll be underdogs to the Saints next week. And though they also trail the Ravens by 1.5 games, they still get to play the Ravens in Week 17, which could ultimately decide the division. And the Browns host the Bengals next week, so they will have a legit shot of getting to 8-7-1, which could be good enough to win this division.
Denver is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games following two consecutive road games. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after trailing their previous game by 14 points or more at halftime. Plays against home teams (Denver) - after covering the spread in three of their last four games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40% to 49%) are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1983. Roll with the Browns Saturday.
|12-15-18||Lakers -1.5 v. Hornets||Top||128-100||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -1.5
The Los Angeles Lakers have really been playing some great basketball. It was always going to take them some time to gel with Lebron James and all the new faces, but they’ve certainly gelled now. The Lakers are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games overall coming in.
And I like backing the Lakers off their tough loss to Houston on Thursday. They have been really good following a loss, going 5-1 SU in their last six games off a loss. And the Lakers are rested right now as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight. They should be primed for a big effort here.
Conversely, the Charlotte Hornets are in an awful spot. They played an overtime game against the Knicks last night and lost 124-126. That had to take a lot out of them. They’ll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. And all five starters played at least 36 minutes last night.
Charlotte is 6-19 ATS in home games off two consecutive home games over the past three seasons. Los Angeles is 18-8 ATS after failing to cove the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last two years. The Lakers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss by more than 10 points. The Hornets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The road team is 16-5-1 ATS in the lsat 22 meetings. The Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Charlotte. Bet the Lakers Saturday.
|12-15-18||Southern Miss +9 v. Wichita State||60-63||Win||100||6 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Southern Miss +9
Wichita State is clearly in rebuilding mode. The Shockers only returned one starter this season and lost almost every key player from last year’s team that went 25-8. The only key returnee is SF Markis McDuffie, who is the top returning scorer at only 8.3 PPG.
It’s no wonder the Shockers are off to a shaky 5-4 start this season. They lost by 13 at home to LA Tech as 9-point favorites, and they only beat Jacksonville State by 4 last time out at home as 7.5-point favorites. They have only had two days to get ready for Southern Miss.
This is a Southern Miss team on the rise. The Golden Eagles are in their best shape since being hit with a three-year probation from former coach Donnie Tyndall’s tenure. Fifth-year coach Doc Sadler returns a very experienced team, including four senior starting guards from last year. Tyree Griffin (15.0 PPG, 5.9 APG last year), Cortez Edwards (16.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG), Dominic Magee (11.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and Kevin Holland (6.8 PPG) all returned. That’s a lot of production.
The Golden Eagles are off to a 7-2 start this season. And their two most impressive performances came in their only two true road games. They won outright 74-64 at SMU as 9.5-point underdogs, and 81-66 at Troy as 1.5-point dogs. They certainly won’t be losing by double-digits on the road to this rebuilding Wichita State team tonight.
Wichita State is 5-15 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. Plays on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Southern Miss) - in a game involving two up-tempo teams who average 60 or more shots per game, after two straight games where they allowed their opponents to shoot 37% or less are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS since 1983. Roll with Southern Miss Saturday.
|12-15-18||North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State||13-52||Loss||-105||71 h 3 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early Bowl ANNIHILATOR on North Texas +8.5
The North Texas Mean Green certainly want to be here in this New Mexico Bowl Saturday. Sitting at 9-3, they have a chance to win 10 games for the first time in nearly 70 years. They are 2-7 all-time in bowl games, so they don’t get to go bowling very often. And they want to make amends for their loss to Troy last year. Plus, head coach Seth Littrell turned down the Kansas State job to stay here, so his players will go to war with him.
This is a very experienced Mean Green team that returned 17 starters from a team that also won nine games last season. And they were even better this year, as their three losses all came by 8 points or fewer and by a combined 13 points, and they led by double-digits in all three. That’s how close this team was to being 12-0.
Improvement came from a defense that gave up 35 points and 431 yards per game last season. The Mean Green this season only give up 21.8 points and 359.5 yards per game. And their offense exceeded last years numbers slightly and remains elite, scoring 36.4 points per game and averaging 472.8 yards per game. QB Mason Fine was already the school’s all-time leading passer coming into the season, and had another big year, throwing for 3,734 yards with a 27-to-5 TD/INT ratio.
My favorite stat on this North Texas team is that they were the only team in the country to outgain every opponent they played this year. Even Alabama was outgained by Georgia in the SEC Championship. The Mean Green are outgaining opponents by 113.3 yards per game on the season. That’s the sign of a good team and one that I have no problem getting my money behind.
Utah State head coach Matt Wells has moved on to greener pastures, taking the Texas Tech job. He is going to bring his assistants with him, though those assistants will stick around to coach the bowl game. I expect a lack of focus from these Utah State players given the coaching situation. Plus, teams in December bowl games who lost their head coach last year went 1-5 ATS.
Another reason the Aggies will be lacking motivation is because they blew a huge opportunity in their regular season finale with a heartbreaking loss to Boise State. That loss cost them a trip to the Mountain West Championship Game. Now they have to try and get up to face North Texas when they’d much rather be up against a Power 5 team like both Fresno State and Boise State get the opportunity to as rewards for playing the MWC Championship. Utah State doesn’t want to be here at all.
I’ll gladly back the more motivated team here in North Texas catching more than a touchdown against Utah State in the New Mexico Bowl. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Utah State) - off a road loss to a conference opponent, a team that wins more than 80% of their games playing a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1992. Take North Texas Saturday.
|12-15-18||Rutgers +7 v. Seton Hall||Top||66-72||Win||100||4 h 33 m||Show|
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +7
I love the spot for Rutgers today. They are coming off three consecutive losses and will be highly motivated for a victory. Well, an 11-point loss to Michigan State and a 5-point road loss to Wisconsin as 11.5-point dogs aren’t bad losses. The upset loss at Fordham was, but it was understandable given they stepped out of conference following those losses to MSU and Wisconsin.
Look for the Scarlet Knights to be refocused and ready to go tonight. This is a team that got off to a 5-1 start, which includes a 57-54 win at Miami as 11-point dogs. And their only loss was as dogs to St. John’s up to that point. So they have been through the gauntlet, playing one of the most difficult schedules in the country to this point. They won’t be phased at all by this road game at Seton Hall as it will already be their fourth true road game of the season.
I also love the spot fading Seton Hall. They are coming off one of their biggest wins in program history, an 84-83 win over Kentucky on a neutral last time out. After beating the Wildcats, who are down this season, they certainly won’t be nearly as motivated to face Rutgers tonight. This is a Seton Hall team that lost by 23 to Nebraska, was upset by St. Louis at home, and upset by Louisville at home. Rutgers will have a chance to pull the upset today, too.
Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more over the last three seasons. It’s a Pirates team that lost their four best players from last year, and one that is being overvalued now off that win over Kentucky. The Scarlet Knights are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games, and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The road team is 20-6 ATSi n the last 26 meetings. The Scarlet Knights are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 trips to Seton Hall. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
|12-15-18||Penn State v. NC State -4||78-89||Win||102||3 h 43 m||Show|
15* Penn State/NC State ESPNU No-Brainer on NC State -4
NC State is loaded this season. The Wolfpack brought back three starters from last year, and then added in some tremendous college-ready transfers in Devon Daniels, C.J. Bryce, Blake Harris, Wyatt Walker and Eric Lockett. They brought back senior Torin Dorn, sharp-shooter Braxton Beverly and junior Markell Johnson, who led the ACC with 7.3 assists per game last year.
The Wolfpack are off to an 8-1 start this season with heir only loss coming 75-79 at Wisconsin as 6-point dogs. They have been undervalued all season as they are 7-2 ATS. Dorn (16.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 47.8% 3-pointers this season) and Johnson (12.2 PPG, 4.2 APG, 48.6% 3-pointers) are doing their thing, while Bryce (12.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 40% 3-pointers) and Daniels (9.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG) are contributing right away as transfers.
Penn State clearly came into the season overvalued. The Nittany Lions are just 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS in their nine games this season. Their five wins have come against North Florida, Jacksonville State, Wright State, VA Tech (at home by 1) and Colgate. They already have upset losses to DePaul, Bradley and Indiana, and they failed to cover in a loss at Maryland. This team just isn’t very good.
Penn State is 2-10 ATS in road games vs. up-tempo teams who average 62 or more shots per game. The Wolfpack are scoring 88.9 PPG this season, which is 15.9 per game more than their opponents give up on average. They are also holding teams to 62 PPG, which is 6 points less than their opponents average. This team is a lot better than they’re getting credit for as only 4-point favorites here, and that will show on the court this afternoon. Take NC State Saturday.
|12-14-18||Raptors v. Blazers +4||122-128||Win||100||10 h 40 m||Show|
15* Raptors/Blazers NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland +4
The Toronto Raptors are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. They are coming off back-to-back road wins over the Clippers and Warriors. They were 8-point dogs to the Warriors, and now they are 4-point favorites at the Blazers. And they’re certainly in a huge letdown spot off that big win over the Warriors.
Toronto has some serious injury concerns moving forward. Kawhi Leonard has been sitting out with a hip injury and is questionable to return tonight. They haven’t needed him, so I’m not concerned whether he plays or not. But they just lost Jonas Valanciunas for the next four-to-six weeks with a thumb injury in that win over the Warriors. He provides much-needed toughness inside, and they’re going to miss him more than what will get factored into the point spread moving forward.
Portland comes in highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back road losses to Houston and Memphis. The Blazers had their chances late in both of those games, but finished poorly. Now they return home, and this team has one of the biggest home/road splits in the NBA. They have a tremendous home-court advantage, going 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS while outscoring their opponents by 8.6 points per game in Portland.
Plays on underdogs (Portland) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in December games are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 home games. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. Portland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Toronto. Roll with the Blazers Friday.
|12-14-18||Wizards v. Nets -1.5||Top||118-125||Win||100||7 h 9 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1.5
The Brooklyn Nets are having some fun right now. I’ve watched this team a lot this season and have been impressed with what I’ve seen, especially of late. They had lost eight straight games, including back-to-back heartbreaking 2-point losses to close out the streak. But they didn’t give in.
Since those two 2-point losses, the Nets have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They beat the Raptors 106-105 (OT) at home and celebrated like they won the NBA title. It was fun to see, and this team has just kept on rolling since. They went on the road and beat the Knicks 112-104 as 2-point dogs, and then upset the 76ers 127-124 as 6-point dogs. And this is a fresh team right now as the Nets will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.
The Wizards just can’t be trusted. They have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season at 11-17. They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They lost by 15 at Cleveland as 7.5-point favorites, by 8 at Indiana as 6-point dogs, and then in OT 125-130 to Boston at home as 3.5-point dogs. And after playing the Celtics, they certainly won’t get up to face the Nets and this is a ‘hangover’ spot for them. It’s also a sandwich spot with the Lakers on deck.
The Nets have had the Wizards’ number in recent meetings, going 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. In their last two home meetings with the Wizards, the Nets won 119-84 and 103-98, both times winning outright as underdogs. And they should have no problem covering this short 1.5-point spread at home here tonight. John Wall is hobbled by an ankle injury and left last game, while Otto Porter Jr. is questionable with a knee injury after sitting out last game.
Washington is 0-8 ATS in road games after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this season. It is losing by a whopping 17.7 points per game on average in this spot. On the season, the Wizards are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS on the road, getting outscored by 10.8 points per game. Dating back further, the Wizards are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 road games. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Brooklyn is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with Washington. Bet the Nets Friday.
|12-14-18||Bucks v. Cavs +10.5||114-102||Loss||-109||7 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5
This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA. I like backing teams who are playing with quick revenge after a recent loss to their opponent. The Cavs lost 92-108 at Milwaukee as 10-point dogs on Monday, December 10th, and now they are 10.5-point dogs at home in the rematch. There’s clearly some value here.
The Cavs are playing very well at home of late. They beat the Wizards 116-101 outright as 7.5-point dogs, and then the Knicks 113-106 outright as 1.5-point dogs in their last two home games. And this is a team that is getting healthier with several guys recently returning from injury. The addition of Matthew Dellavedova from the Bucks is also paying dividends as he’s playing big, important minutes and has been a nice role model for rookie sensation Collin Sexton.
While the Cavs will be highly motivated for revenge on Milwaukee, the Bucks will have a hard time getting up for this game considering they just beat the Cavs by 16 four days ago. And the Bucks have been a bad bet on the road this season, going 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS while only outscoring their opponents by 2.2 points per game on average. The Cavs are only getting beat by 4.4 points per game at home this year.
Milwaukee is 20-48 ATS in its last 68 games as a favorite of 10 or more points. The Bucks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games dating back to last season. The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Cavaliers Friday.
|12-13-18||Clippers v. Spurs -2.5||Top||87-125||Win||100||8 h 55 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -2.5
The San Antonio Spurs have been a great home team this season. They are 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this year. I like them here quite a bit laying this short number to the Los Angeles Clippers, who have finally come back down to reality here of late.
The Clippers were the No. 1 team in the West just a short few weeks ago, but they’ve hit a wall. They are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Their only win came 123-119 (OT) against the Phoenix Suns, who are far and away the worst team in the West. The three losses came by 10, 23 and 24 points.
A big reason the Clippers are going to continue to struggle in the short-term is the loss of Lou Williams (17.2 PPG, 4.5 APG) to a hamstring injury. He isn’t someone who affects the point spread, but he should. He is the best 6th man in the league and provides a huge scoring punch for the Clippers’ bench. Without Williams, the Clippers no longer have the bench advantage they’ve had all season.
The Spurs are 36-10 SU in their last 46 home meetings with the Clippers. The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with the Spurs winning by 18 and 13 points in their last two home meetings with the Clippers. The Spurs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
San Antonio also wants revenge from a 111-116 road loss to the Clippers in their lone meeting this season on November 15th. Well, the Spurs are 10-1 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. Take the Spurs Thursday.
|12-13-18||Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 53||Top||29-28||Loss||-105||56 h 45 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on UNDER 53
The Chargers trail the Chiefs by one game in the AFC West standings. They can move into a first place tie with the Chiefs with a win Thursday night. It’s safe to say this game will be played close to the vest, especially in a bitter rivalry between these division opponents who are very familiar with one another. And I think the defenses win out in this one, so I’ll side with the UNDER.
There’s several reasons to like the UNDER. The first and most important is that both teams are short on weapons right now. The Chargers are going to likely be without Melvin Gordon, and backup RB Austin Ekeler is questionable as well. For the Chiefs, they will be without starting RB Kareem Hunt and backup RB Spencer Ware. They’ll also be without WR Sammy Watkins, and fellow WR Tyreek Hill was noticeably hobbled with a heel injury against the Ravens on Sunday. Hill will play tonight, but on a short week I question how productive he’ll be.
The Ravens were able to slow down the Chiefs last week behind one of the best defenses in the NFL. And the Chargers have the ability to do the same thing. This is a Chargers defense that is giving up just 16.7 PPG over their last nine games. Since getting Joey Bosa back from injury, they’ve been even better. Bosa and Melvin Ingram combine for arguably the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL.
The Chiefs do not have a good defense, but it’s worth noting they have been able to hold teams in check in recent weeks as well. In fact, the Chiefs have allowed 23 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games overall. I like their chances of holding the Chargers to 23 or fewer tonight as well. It’s going to be cold and there’s a chance of rain today in Kansas City. The UNDER is 48-21-1 in Chiefs last 70 home games. The UNDER is 8-1 in Chargers last nine vs. AFC West opponents.
The Chargers are 10-1 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Kansas City is 9-0 UNDER In home games vs. teams who allow 5.65 or more yards per play over the last three years. Los Angeles is 10-1 UNDER in December games over the last three seasons. The Chargers are 7-0 UNDER off three or more consecutive wins over the last two years. These four trends combine for a 36-2 system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|12-12-18||Wolves v. Kings +3.5||130-141||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +3.5
The Sacramento Kings should not be home underdogs to the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. The Kings have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season, and they continue to be here. They are 14-12 SU & 16-10 ATS in all games this season.
The Kings have really turned it on of late, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, with three of those wins all coming by 17 points or more. It’s even more impressive when you consider that four of those five games were on the road.
The Timberwolves are in a tough spot here. They are coming off two straight road games against the Blazers and Warriors. And after losing to the Warriors on Monday, there’s no way they’ll be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight as they were the defending champs. Minnesota is just 2-10 on the road this season, getting outscored by 7.2 points per game. That’s why they can’t be favored here.
Minnesota is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring three of their last four against the spread over the past two seasons. They are losing by 11.1 points per game on average in this spot. Sacramento is 12-2 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. The Timberwolves ar e12-25 ATS in their last 37 road games. The Kings are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days’ rest.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - after having won two of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Kings Wednesday.
|12-12-18||LSU v. Houston -3.5||Top||76-82||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
20* LSU/Houston ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Houston -3.5
The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have opened 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS through their first eight games, outscoring the opposition by 17.7 points per game on average. They play elite defense, giving up just 57.7 points and 37.8% shooting to their opponents.
And it’s not like Houston is beating up on a bunch of cupcakes, either. They won 76-62 at BYU as 2-point underdogs. They beat Oregon 65-61 as 3.5-point home favorites. And they won 63-53 at Oklahoma State as 2.5-point underdogs.
That Oklahoma State result is important because it pertains to this game. LSU is 7-2, but one of its losses came to Oklahoma State 77-90 on a neutral despite being 5.5-point favorites. So that’s the common opponent between these teams, and Houston won by 10 on the road, while LSU lost by 13 on a neutral.
And LSU has beaten up on a lot of cupcakes as they also lost to Florida State, while their seven wins all came against suspect competition as 8.5-point favorites or more. In fact, this will be the first true road game of the season for the Tigers, which is always a precarious spot, especially up against a Top 25 team like Houston with a great home-court advantage.
LSU is 3-12 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Cougars are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 home games. Houston is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 games overall. The Cougars are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. Bet Houston Wednesday.
|12-12-18||Nets +7 v. 76ers||Top||127-124||Win||100||7 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +7
The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Jimmy Butler, who suffered a groin injury last time out and will miss this game. After trading away Dario Saric and Robert Covington for Butler, and with Markelle Fultz out with a shoulder injury, the 76ers are really short on talent and depth right now.
The Nets suffered two straight crushing losses to Cleveland (by 2) and Oklahoma City (by 2) to start the month of December. But they have rallied since, upsetting the Raptors 106-105 as 8.5-point home underdogs. Then they went on the road the next night and beat the Knicks 112-104. Now, the Nets are working on three days’ rest having last played on Saturday, so they are primed for a big effort.
The first two meetings this season show that the Nets have the 76ers’ number. The Nets won 122-97 as 4-point home underdogs in their first meeting. Then they let the 76ers off the hook in the 2nd meeting, blowing a 68-54 halftime lead and losing 125-127 as 4.5-point home dogs, so they covered. And now they’re catching 7 points here in the 3rd meeting and out for revenge for that blown lead, plus they’re rested and up against a depleted 76ers squad.
Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games when playing on three or more days’ rest. The Nets are 17-6 ATS in road games when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall when playing on three days’ rest or more. Brooklyn is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 road games. Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the Nets Wednesday.
|12-12-18||Pistons v. Hornets -5.5||107-108||Loss||-101||7 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -5.5
The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They have handled their business at home, going 9-5 SU & 9-5 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 7.5 points per game. And they’re fully healthy in this one while also coming in on two days’ rest, so they are fresh and ready to go. It’s also just their 4th game in 10 days.
Detroit is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. All five losses have come by 6 points or more, and I think you can chalk up a 6th straight loss by at least 6 points for them here. The Pistons will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 8th game in 13 days. They are a tired team right now.
That fatigue has led to some injuries lately that are really holding the Pistons back. They are without Reggie Bullock (10.1 PPG) and Ish Smith (9.2 PPG), and Stanley Johnson (9.8 PPG) is banged up and questionable with a knee injury. All three are among their top six scorers this season, so they are very short on depth right now.
The Hornets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Pistons, winning all three by 10 points or more and by an average of 12.3 points per game. Charlotte is 10-2 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in three straight games this season. The Pistons are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast Division foes. Detroit is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Pistons. The favorite is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take the Hornets Wednesday.
|12-11-18||Suns v. Spurs -12.5||Top||86-111||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -12.5
The San Antonio Spurs are 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS at home this season. They are coming off back-to-back home wins over the Lakers (133-120) and Jazz (110-97) by 13 points apiece. And they should have no problem winning by 13 points or more to cover this 12.5-point spread against the Phoenix Suns tonight.
The Suns are in an awful spot. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-123 (OT) loss to the Clippers last night. I always like looking to fade teams on a back-to-back, especially when they’re coming off an OT game. This will also be the 9th game in 15 days for Phoenix. The Spurs had yesterday off.
The Suns are without Devin Booker right now, which is a big reason they are 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. Seven of those nine losses have come by double-digits, so they’re used to losing by these margins. They are 1-12 SU & 3-10 ATS on the road this season, losing by 15.2 points per game on average.
The Spurs are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Suns. Their last six home wins have all come by 14 points or more and by an average of 19.2 points per game. San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. After losing in Phoenix in their last meeting this season, the Spurs won’t be taking the Suns lightly tonight. Bet the Spurs Tuesday.
|12-10-18||Heat +7 v. Lakers||105-108||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
15* Heat/Lakers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +7
The Miami Heat are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They upset both the Pelicans and Jazz at home, and throttled the Suns by 17 and the Clippers by 23 on the road.
The spot is a good one for the Heat tonight. They didn’t have to travel as they played in Los Angeles on Saturday. They probably went out Saturday night and had Sunday to recover. And now they’ll be looking forward to the opportunity of trying to pull the Staples Center sweep tonight. Plus, they get Goran Dragic back from injury, and they are getting healthy and becoming a very dangerous team because of it.
The Lakers are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. They have won five of their last six while going 4-1-1 ATS in the process. But it has mostly been against an easy schedule. And while the Lakers will be playing their 4th game in 6 days here, the Heat will be playing just their 4th game in 7 days.
Miami is 18-5 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons. Los Angeles is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 home games after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games. The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five Monday games.
Plays against home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 45-15 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Lakers will be without two key players in Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo tonight as well. Roll with the Heat Monday.
|12-10-18||Grizzlies +2 v. Nuggets||99-105||Loss||-105||9 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Memphis Grizzlies +2
It’s no surprise that the Denver Nuggets have lost two straight games to the Hornets and Hawks coming into this game. For starters, they just played five straight road games. And now they’re in their first game back home after being on the road for 10 days. I always like fading teams in this spot.
The Nuggets will also be playing their 4th game in 6 days here. And their injury situation is the biggest reason I’m fading them tonight. They are without Gary Harris (16.6 PPG), Will Barton (16.5 PPG) and Paul Millsap (13.6 PPG), who are three of their top five scores. And they may also be without leading scorer Jamal Murray (17.4 PPG), who suffered a shin injury in their loss to the Hawks on Saturday and is questionable tonight.
Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies are fully healthy right now with both Mike Conley and Garrett Temple expected to play. And at full strength and up against a depleted Nuggets squad, the Grizzlies should be favored in this game even though it’s on the road.
Memphis is 7-0 ATS in road games off a home game this season. The Grizzlies are 34-19 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last three seasons, so they are in the same situation as the Nuggets, but it doesn’t seem to phase them. Memphis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents. Denver is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes. Take the Grizzlies Monday.
|12-10-18||Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5||Top||7-21||Win||100||81 h 2 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Seahawks MNF Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 45.5
This is essentially a play-in game for the playoffs. It will have a playoff atmosphere as the Seahawks are 7-5 and the Vikings are 6-5-1, both fighting to earn a wild card spot. In the case of the Vikings, they’re still alive to win the NFC North. I think this game is played close to the vest, and I think points will be very hard to come by as both of these defenses control this game.
I also like the fact that both teams will be looking to run the football, which will keep the clock moving. The Seahawks have really become a run-heavy team, which has been key to their success. They have rushed 28 or more times in 10 consecutive games now. They have more rushing attempts than pass attempts in eight of those 10 games.
Well, the Vikings have been a great defense overall, and especially against the run. They rank 7th in rushing defense, giving up just 99.2 yards per game on the ground. The Vikings are also tied for 2nd in rushing yards per attempt (3.7) allowed this season. They’ll be able to shut down this Seahawks offense.
The Vikings know they need to run the ball more if they want to win this time of year. They have gotten pass-happy in recent losses to the Bears and Patriots. They should get back to their ground game this week knowing that the Seahawks are vulnerable against the run. In fact, the Seahawks are tied for last in yards per carry (5.1) allowed this season. The Vikings would be foolish not to run the ball more and keep that clock moving.
The most recent meeting between these teams came in the playoffs in 2016. The Seahawks won that game 10-9 in Minnesota. The Vikings managed just 183 total yards in that game, while the Seahawks had just 226 total yards. I don’t think it will be that low-scoring again, but I do think this game stays well UNDER the 45.5-point total.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Vikings last four games in December. The UNDER is 5-1 in Vikings last six Monday games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Seahawks last eight Monday games. Seattle is 10-2 UNDER in its last 12 home games after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games.
Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 points (Minnesota) - an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a poor team (outgained by 0.4 to 1.0 YPP) after eight-plus games are 31-6 (83.8%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-10-18||Jazz v. Thunder -5||Top||113-122||Win||100||8 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -5
I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. They come in on two days’ rest and off a bad upset loss at Chicago as 8.5-point favorites. So they’ll be fresh and ready to go, plus they’ll be highly motivated for a win off that Chicago loss.
Adding to Oklahoma City’s motivation tonight is the fact that Utah bounced them from the playoffs last year. Paul George had one of the worst games of his career in their 96-91 loss at Utah in Game 6. He and Russell Westbrook will be looking to make amends. In fact, I don’t think the Thunder will be more motivated for any other game in the regular season than this one.
Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off their 97-110 loss in San Antonio last night. So you have a team playing for a second consecutive day up against a team with two days’ rest. The Thunder have a huge scheduling advantage in this one to say the least.
The Thunder are 9-3 at home this season and winning by 8.7 points per game on average. The Jazz are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games when playing on zero rest. Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games. The home team is 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings. The Thunder are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home meetings with the Jazz. Bet the Thunder Monday.
|12-09-18||Jazz v. Spurs +4||97-110||Win||100||7 h 50 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on San Antonio Spurs +4
The revenge tour of the San Antonio Spurs continues tonight. They avenged a 113-121 road loss to the Lakers on Wednesday with a 133-120 home win over the Lakers on Friday. And now they’ll be looking to avenge their 105-139 road loss to the Jazz on Tuesday when they get to host Utah this time around.
San Antonio has gone 71-22 SU in its last 93 home meetings with Utah. And home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings. I don’t think the Spurs should be home dogs tonight, let alone 4-point home dogs.
The Spurs are a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent this season. San Antonio is also a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season. The Spurs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games, including 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Spurs Sunday.
|12-09-18||Bucks v. Raptors -5||104-99||Loss||-107||6 h 50 m||Show|
15* Bucks/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -5
The Raptors are coming off a bad overtime loss to the Nets last time out. That should have them refocused and ready to go at home tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks. They’ll also want revenge from a 109-124 loss at Milwaukee in their first meeting this season.
No team is as equipped to stop Giannis and the Bucks quite like Toronto. Kawhi Leonard is arguably the best defender in the NBA, and he’ll relish the challenge to top Giannis tonight. I expect a big effort from the Raptors here.
The Bucks have done most of their damage at home thanks to a home-heavy schedule with 15 home games compared to just 9 road games. And the Bucks are just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS on the road this season.
Toronto is 14-3 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games. Roll with the Raptors Sunday.
|12-09-18||Purdue v. Texas +2.5||Top||68-72||Win||100||5 h 20 m||Show|
20* Purdue/Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas +2.5
It’s safe to say the Texas Longhorns will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They opened 5-0 with wins against Arkansas and North Carolina, but not they’ve lost three straight to Michigan State, Redford and VCU. They want to get back in the win column here tonight in a bad way.
Purdue is coming off a 62-60 home win as 9-point favorites over Maryland. Now they step out of conference here. They only have two days’ rest after playing on Thursday, while Texas has three days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday.
While Texas has four returning starters, Purdue has just one returning starter and has been grossly overvalued this season. The Boilermakers also have three losses this year, and they are 0-2 in true road games losing to Michigan and Florida State by an average of 10 points per game.
The Boilermakers are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall. Purdue is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Boilermakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. Texas is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games as a home dog of 3 points or less or PK. Bet Texas Sunday.
|12-09-18||Nevada v. Grand Canyon +11||74-66||Win||100||5 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Grand Canyon +11
Nevada (9-0) is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after its unbeaten start and No. 6 ranking. Now the Wolf Pack are being asked to lay double-digits in what is essentially a home game for Grand Canyon at Talking Stick Resort in Phoenix.
Dan Majerle is doing big things at Grand Canyon, and it helps that they have some of the best facilities and weather in the country, which has helped him get recruits. Grand Canyon is 5-3 this season with all three losses coming by 9 points or less, and they were all on the road to the likes of Utah, Seton Hall and South Dakota State.
But what I really like about this game is the fact that Grand Canyon is rested with seven days in between games having last played on December 1st. Nevada just played on Friday, December 7th in a hard-fought 72-66 win over Arizona State in Los Angeles. So the Wolf Pack only have one day to prepare for Grand Canyon.
That’s a huge scheduling advantage for the Antelopes here. The Antelopes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Wolf Pack are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers, and that will show tonight as the Antelopes give them a run for their money. Take Grand Canyon Sunday.
|12-09-18||Broncos v. 49ers +4.5||14-20||Win||100||76 h 25 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco 49ers +4.5
With three more turnovers last week against the Seahawks, including a 98-yard INT return TD, the 49ers now have the worst turnover differential (-20) in the NFL. These teams with horrible turnover differentials are undervalued this late in the year, because there’s a big element of luck in turnovers.
I have no doubt the 49ers are better than their 2-10 record would suggest. And a quick look at the numbers shows that this should at least be a 6-6 team or better. They 49ers have outgained their opponents by 174 yards on the season. They are outgaining them by 15.2 yards per game. That’s not the sign of a 2-10 team.
The Broncos are +8 in turnovers over the past three weeks, which has allowed them to win three straight games over the Steelers, Chargers and Bengals. But they had no business winning those games against the Steelers and Chargers as those two teams simply gave the game away. And the Bengals are decimated with injuries playing with a backup QB. They’re broken.
The 49ers do show up every week. Their 16-43 loss to the Seahawks last week makes most bettors seem like they packed it in. But that wasn’t the case, and it was one of the most misleading finals of the week. I mentioned the 98-yard INT return TD the Seahawks got at the end of the game. But the 49ers gained 452 total yards and gave up 331, actually outgaining the Seahawks by 121 yards in that contest. They deserved better, and Nick Mullens had one of his better games of the season with 386 passing yards.
The Broncos have some key injuries this week that will make them less effective. Emmanuel Sanders suffered an Achilles injury in practice on Wednesday that has landed him on IR. Sanders was having a great year with 71 receptions for 868 yards and four touchdowns. And since the Broncos traded away Demaryius Thomas, his loss is even more significant. The Broncos are seriously lacking weapons for the mediocre Case Keenum now.
Plus, the Broncos’ best pass defender is Chris Harris Jr., and he’s out with a fractured fibula now. The 49ers were without both Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon last week. But Goodwin is expected to return, giving Mullens another big weapon outside. And Garcon is questionable and could make his return this week as well. Mullens should be able to make some more plays in the passing game this week.
Denver is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game on the season over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after gaining more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game. This is clearly a ‘buy low’ situation on the 49ers, and a ‘sell high’ situation on the Broncos. Roll with the 49ers Sunday.
|12-09-18||Ravens +7 v. Chiefs||24-27||Win||100||73 h 21 m||Show|
15* Ravens/Chiefs AFC Sunday No-Brainer on Baltimore +7
I agree with this line move. The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites or higher, and now this line has been bet down to 6.5 in most places as of this writing. So if your book as +6.5 make sure to buy it up to +7 and bet the Ravens.
This really comes down to the numbers for me. The Ravens have the numbers of an elite team in spite of their mediocre 7-5 record. They are outgaining teams by 102 yards per game on the season. To compare, the Chiefs are only outgaining teams by 20 yards per game, which isn’t the sign of a 10-2 team. I think the Chiefs are grossly overrated at this point of the season.
The problem with the Chiefs is that they give up 27.2 points per game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 417 yards per game allowed. Only the Bengals have been worse. The Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense at 17.8 points per game allowed, and 1st in total defense at 281.7 yards per game allowed.
Lamar Jackson took over three games ago, and the Ravens have gone 3-0 in his starts while outscoring their three opponents by a combined 30 points, or by an average of 10 points per game. They have become a run-heavy team since Jackson took over, averaging a whopping 238 rushing yards per game in their last three games. That doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs, who are tied for dead last in the NFL in allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season. So this is a great matchup for the Ravens’ offense. They can control time of possession and keep Mahomes off the field with their ground game.
It’s also a great matchup for the Ravens’ defense. The Chiefs won’t be running the ball much now that Kareem Hunt has been released. And they'll certainly miss his 1,202 yards from scrimmage and 14 total touchdowns as he was a matchup nightmare, especially in the passing game. The Chiefs will be putting the ball in Pat Mahomes’ hand even more.
Well, the Ravens rank 2nd in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 194.4 passing yards per game. Better yet, the Ravens are 1st in the NFL in passing yards per attempt (6.1) allowed. No other defense is even close to them in that department as only three teams allow fewer than 6.8 per attempt this season.
Baltimore is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season. Kansas City is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in its previous game. The Ravens are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in their previous game. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
|12-09-18||Colts +5 v. Texans||Top||24-21||Win||100||73 h 20 m||Show|
20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +5
In the NFL, lines are very tight. And if a line if a point or two off, that’s all it takes for there to be some value. I think this line should be Texans -3. So we are basically getting two points of value on the Colts +5 this week. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger.
I believe the Texans are overvalued due to their 9-game winning streak. And they’re coming off a misleading 16-point win over the Browns last week. The Browns basically gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 4-0. They had a 75-yard TD called back by a penalty, and they had another would-be 75-yard TD on the next play end in a player fumbling the ball through the end zone for a touchback. The Browns gained 428 yards on the Texans and outgained them by 44 yards for the game.
I believe the Colts come in undervalued this week off their upset 6-0 shutout loss at Jacksonville last week. But the Colts actually outgained the Jaguars by 54 yards and held them to 211 yards. In fact, the Colts have now outgained eight of their last nine opponents coming in. That’s the sign of an elite team and one that I want to put my money behind, especially as 5-point underdogs.
There’s no doubt the Colts want revenge from their 34-37 (OT) home loss to the Texans earlier this season in their first meeting. The Colts gained 478 total yards on the Texans and moved the ball at will. I think the Texans will relax this week. They have a three-game lead over both the Colts and Titans in the division, so they can afford a loss. Meanwhile, the Colts are in must-win mode here trying to stay alive for a wild card spot.
Andrew Luck has been tremendous off a loss. In fact, Luck is 25-8 SU & 24-9 ATS in his last 33 games as a starting quarterback following a defeat. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Indianapolis) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, who are also off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS since 1983.
The road team is 6-1-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Colts are 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to Houston. Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 14 points or fewer in its previous game. The Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games. Take the Colts Sunday.
|12-09-18||Jets v. Bills -3||Top||27-23||Loss||-120||73 h 18 m||Show|
25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Buffalo Bills -3
The Buffalo Bills deserved to blow out the Miami Dolphins last week. But the fact that they somehow lost that game 17-21 has them undervalued coming into this game. They failed to cover the spread as closing 3.5 points underdogs, and it was one of the most misleading finals of the season.
The Bills gained 415 total yards and held the Dolphins to just 175 total yards, outgaining them by 240 yards for the game. Those stats alone show that the Bills should have won the game. But Charles Clay dropped what would have been a game-winning touchdown catch late as well. I think it works out better for us this week that they actually lost though, because now we’re laying only 3 points instead of 4 or more.
The Jets are getting too much credit for giving the Titans a run for their money last week. The Jets actually led that game most the way, but eventually lost 22-26, covering as 10-point underdogs. But they were thoroughly out-statted as well. The Jets gained just 280 total yards and gave up 403 total yards, getting outgained by 123 yards by the Titans.
The Jets are now 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They have been blown out consistently with all six losses by 4 points or more, five losses by 7 points or more, and four losses by 14 points or more. They have been outscored by 90 points during this losing streak, or by an average of 15 points per game.
The reason I love this Bills team is because they play defense. In fact, the Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 294.2 yards per game. The third place Bears give up 317.9 yards per game, and they only trail the Ravens (281.7) in this category. They have an elite defense, yet they don’t get credit for it.
The Bills have played much better on offense when either Josh Allen or Matt Barkley has been under center at quarterback. In fact, Allen ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing over the last two weeks, rushing for a combined 234 yards the past two games. I don’t think he gets enough credit for being the dual-threat he is, completing opening up this offense and making opposing defenses defend the entire field.
The Jets are a bad team, period. They get outgained by 75.4 yards per game on the season, while the Bills only get outgained by 8.5 yards per game. The Jets rank 23rd in total defense, giving up 376.4 yards per game on the season. New York also ranks 30th in total offense, averaging just 301.0 yards per game on the season.
Buffalo blew out New York 41-10 on the road as 7-point underdogs in their first meeting this season. This was every bit the blowout the final score showed and wasn’t misleading at all. The Bills gained 451 total yards in that game and gave up just 199 yards, outgaining the Jets by 252 total yards in that contest. The Bills rushed for 212 yards on the Jets, and Matt Barkley played well with 232 passing yards and two touchdowns. Allen and company should also have plenty of success on this Jets defense once again.
The Jets are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog. New York is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. Buffalo is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East opponents. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Jets. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|12-08-18||Wolves v. Blazers -2||Top||105-113||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
20* T’Wolves/Blazers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -2
It’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Portland Trail Blazers. They have lost six of their last eight and are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. The betting public doesn’t want anything to do with them, and these are just the types of teams I’m looking to back.
The Blazers are coming off a 22-point win over the Suns, though, and now they get star guard CJ McCollum back from injury tonight. They are 100% healthy and should make easy work of the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are getting way too much respect from the books right now.
We’ll ‘sell high’ on the Timberwolves, who are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. But those six wins have come against six teams with losing records, so they have simply feasted on an easy schedule. The only good team they played during this stretch was Boston, and they lost at home.
The Timberwolves are just 2-8 on the road this season, losing by 7.1 points per game. The Blazers are 9-4 at home and winning by 8.6 points per game. Portland is 37-10 SU in its last 47 home meetings with Minnesota, including 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings. The home team is 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings.
The Blazers are 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 meetings with the Timberwolves. Minnesota is 0-8 ATS in road games after covering three of its last four against the spread over the past two seasons. Portland is 9-1 ATS after allowing 90 points or less over the last two years. The Blazers are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games. Bet the Blazers Saturday.
|12-08-18||Lakers v. Grizzlies -2||111-88||Loss||-105||9 h 47 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Memphis Grizzlies -2
Both the Grizzlies and Lakers are in tough spots tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. However, the Grizzlies have had more rest over the last few weeks, so they are the preferred side here. The Grizzlies will be playing their 5th game in 11 days, while the Lakers will be playing their 6th game in 10 days.
The Lakers have been pretty dreadful on the road this season at 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS. They lost by 13 to the Spurs last night and by 32 to the Nuggets in their last two road games. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season. And they basically just have to win this game to cover the spread.
Making matters worse for the Lakers is the fact that they are playing without two key players right now in Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo. Given this tough rest situation, their lack of depth to make up for those two key losses is huge. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Grizzlies tonight. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games when their Starting 5 combines for more than 160 minutes played the previous day.
Los Angeles is 1-8 ATS vs. good ball-handling teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Lakers are 4-13 ATS after having won four of their last five games over the past two seasons. Memphis is 13-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last three years. The Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.
|12-08-18||Nets v. Knicks -2.5||Top||112-104||Loss||-104||8 h 18 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -2.5
There are so many factors favoring the Knicks to win and cover tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. I’ll gladly lay the short number with them here at home in a game they should win in blowout fashion.
The Knicks are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 4th game in 10 days tonight. The same cannot be said for the Nets, who will be playing the 2nd of back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days. This is a tired, vulnerable Nets team right now, especially after going into overtime last night.
The Nets are just 1-8 SU in their last nine games overall. But they did upset the Raptors 106-105 at home last night. However, that works against them now because it’s a letdown spot after beating the team with the best record in the NBA. They won’t get up for the Knicks nearly as much as they were up for the Raptors last night, and they certainly won’t have much left in the tank for the Knicks.
The Knicks own the Nets, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. They won by 19 at home earlier this season, and by 16 in their final home meeting last season. They also won by 21 in their first home meetings last season. Each of their last five wins in this series have come by 7 points or more, including four by double-digits.
Brooklyn is 0-7 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season. It is losing by 8.4 points per game on average in this spot. The Nets are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when playing on zero rest. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home meetings with Brooklyn.
Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New York) - vs. division opponents, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Knicks Saturday.
|12-08-18||Rockets v. Mavs +3||104-107||Win||100||6 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Dallas Mavericks +3
What more do the Dallas Mavericks have to do to get some respect around here? Until they do, I’ll keep backing them as home underdogs tonight against the Houston Rockets, who have no business being favored with the way they are playing right now.
The Mavericks are a perfect 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games. They have beaten the likes of the Thunder, Jazz, Warriors, Celtics, Clippers and Blazers at home during this stretch, so it’s not like they are feasting on weak competition. And now the Mavericks have two days’ rest to get ready for the Rockets after last playing on Wednesday.
The Rockets are just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are coming off a 27-point loss to the Jazz, which is their fourth loss by at least 9 points during this stretch. One of those was at home against the Mavericks on November 28th as the Mavs won 128-108 as 5.5-point dogs, covering the spread by 25.5 points.
The Mavs are 7-0 ATS at home with a line of +3 to -3 this season. The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven when heir opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Dallas is 7-0 ATS off an ATS loss this season. And add in that the Mavericks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games, and we have a combined 29-0 system backing Dallas in this one. Roll with the Mavericks Saturday.
|12-08-18||Loyola-Chicago +9.5 v. Maryland||41-55||Loss||-108||4 h 20 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Loyola-Chicago +9.5
Loyola-Chicago went 32-6 last season and made a surprising run to the Final Four. And they brought back three starters from that teams in MVC Player of the Year Clayton Custer (13.2 PPG, 45.1% 3-Pointers Last Year), Marques Townes (11.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG) and Cameron Krutwig (10.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG). They’re loaded again.
However, it’s understandable Loyola-Chicago came into this season overvalued after making the Final Four. They have gone a disappointing 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS this season, and now the betting public is off of them. I think this is a great ‘buy low’ opportunity on the Rambles Saturday.
The Ramblers were favored in 8 of their first 9 games, but now they are in their biggest underdog role of the season here as 9.5-point dogs against Maryland. And this is a great spot for them. While they’ve had two days’ rest coming in, Maryland is in a very difficult travel spot.
Indeed, the Terrapons lost 60-62 at Purdue on Thursday, so they only have one day to get ready for Loyola. And they step back out of conference here off three straight difficult games against Virginia, Penn State and Purdue. I just see this as a ‘hangover’ spot off that loss to Purdue, and certainly the Terrapins could be running out of gas by now.
Loyola is a perfect 8-0 ATS off four straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons. This isn’t a true home game for Maryland, and the Rambles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. The Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Roll with Loyola-Chicago Saturday.
|12-08-18||Georgetown +10.5 v. Syracuse||71-72||Win||100||4 h 51 m||Show|
15* Georgetown/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on Georgetown +10.5
The Georgetown Hoyas are getting zero respect from oddsmakers here as 10.5-point road underdogs to the Syracuse Orange. I think this is too many points, and it has shown in recent years in this rivalry that home-court advantage means nothing.
Georgetown (7-1) has already gone on the road and beaten Illinois 88-80 as 9-point underdogs in their only true road game this season, but they’ve also played a couple neutral court affairs. And they have an extra day of rest and preparation here after last playing on December 3rd, while Syracuse last played on December 4th.
Syracuse already has bad upset losses to UConn by 7 as 7.5-point favorites and Oregon by 15 as 2-point favorites, both on a neutral court. Their six wins have all come against suspect competition as favorites of 12.5 or more points, outside of their upset win over Ohio State, which was an aberration.
Series history really favors Georgetown here. The Hoyas are 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Orange. All four losses came by 7 points or less, and three of those came in overtime. In fact, Georgetown hasn’t lost by more than 7 points to Syracuse in any of the last 11 meetings. That makes for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Hoyas pertaining to this 10.5-point spread. Take Georgetown Saturday.
|12-08-18||Navy +7 v. Army||Top||10-17||Push||0||46 h 11 m||Show|
20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Navy +7
The Army Black Knights will be going to the Armed Forces Bowl on December 22nd to face Houston. They have a lot to look forward to still. As a result, they won’t be as motivated as Navy in this matchup, which missed out on a bowl game this season with a 3-9 record. This is Navy’s bowl game.
And you can bet Navy wants revenge from back-to-back losses to Army in this series, losing 21-17 in 2016 and 14-13 last season. The difference here is that Army goes from being the hunter to the hunted here. Army hasn’t been favored in this rivalry game since 2001. Now, all of a sudden the Black Knights are whopping 7-point favorites this year. It’s simply too much.
Army feasted on an easy schedule this season that ranked 99th in the country. The Black Knights haven’t faced an FBS opponent since their 17-14 home win over Air Force back on November 3rd. They closed the season playing Lafayette and Colgate, and they haven’t played a game since November 17th, so they could certainly be rusty. It could take them a quarter or two to fully get into this game.
Navy played the 66th-toughest schedule as their schedule was much more difficult than that of Army. That contributed to their 3-9 record, but so did several close losses along the way. Navy lost three games by a total of 9 points this season to SMU, Tulane and Temple. All three of those teams will be going to bowl games, and they played nine bowl teams this season. To compare, Army only played six bowl teams.
I like the way Navy finished the season. They went 3-0 ATS in their final three games. They gave UCF all they wanted on the road in a 24-35 loss as 23.5-point underdogs. They then beat Tulsa 37-29 at home as 5.5-point favorites. And they finished going on the road losing 28-29 at Tulane as 6-point dogs. Tulane had a huge second half comeback and needed that win to make a bowl. They won on a 2-point conversion in the final minutes.
Navy is 6-0 ATS in road games off three straight games where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the past three seasons. Army is 16-35 ATS in its last 51 games off a bye week. The Black Knights are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Midshipmen simply want this game more, and even if they don’t win there’s a great chance they stay within a touchdown, just as they did the past two seasons. In fact, each of the last four meetings were decided by 7 points or fewer. Bet Navy Saturday.
|12-07-18||Thunder v. Bulls +9||112-114||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +9
I think the Bulls are a ‘bet on’ team in the immediate future right now. That’s because they fired Fred Hoiberg on Monday, and getting a new voice will be good for them as veteran assistant Jim Boylen has taken over the reigns. I cashed in the Bulls +8.5 against the Pacers on Wednesday, and I’m back on them again tonight.
I don’t think Hoiberg got a fair shake, but he clearly wasn’t getting through to his players. And now Boylen takes over just in time for their best player in Lauri Markkanen returning from injury. This will be his third game back from injury after missing the first 23 games of the season. And the Bulls are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here.
Oklahoma City will be playing its 3rd game in 5 days here. The Thunder erased an 88-65 deficit to beat the Nets 114-112 as 6-point road favorites on Wednesday thanks to a game-winning 3-pointer from Paul George. I think the Thunder are way overvalued right now, and this is definitely a ‘hangover’ spot for them off that huge comeback win.
Oklahoma City is 15-33 ATS in its last 48 games following a road win by 3 points or less. Chicago is 14-3 ATS in December games over the last two seasons. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Chicago) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive losses are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Bulls Friday.
|12-07-18||Kings -2.5 v. Cavs||129-110||Win||100||8 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5
The Sacramento Kings are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season. They sit at 12-11 on the season and will win their third straight game here against the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers. I love the spot for the Kings as they are rested and ready to go, playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here tonight. It will also be just their 4th game in 12 days.
The Cavaliers are a tired team right now, which has contributed to their 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS record in their last six games overall. They will be playing their 9th game in 15 days. They are coming off a 105-129 home loss to the Warriors, and that makes this a ‘hangover’ spot for them after playing the defending champs.
The Cavs are decimated by injuries right now. Kevin Love, Sam Dekker, JR Smith and David Nwaba are all out. Plus, they traded Kyle Korver to the Jazz. These injuries have taken their toll, especially since the Cavaliers were already short on talent coming into the season. And their lack of depth is really catching up to them now.
Sacramento is 10-1 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. Cleveland is 6-22-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a double-digit home loss. The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last three years. The Kings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Cleveland. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Kings Friday.
|12-07-18||Nuggets v. Hornets +1||Top||107-113||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Charlotte Hornets +1
The Denver Nuggets are starting to get too much love for going 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. They’re now road favorites over the Hornets tonight and they shouldn’t be. I think this is a great spot to fade the Nuggets, who will be playing their 4th straight road games and are coming off an overtime win over the Magic. Four of their seven wins during this streak have either come by 3 points or less or in OT.
I love the spot for the Hornets. They’ll be highly motivated for a win off three straight losses to Utah, New Orleans and Minnesota. And they will be rested and ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here. They are primed for one of their best efforts of the season. Plus, the Nuggets will be without leading scorer Gary Harris tonight, and his absence is a big one.
The Hornets have had the Nuggets’ number in recent seasons. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings. They won 110-93 as 2-point home underdogs last year, and 122-114 at home the season prior. The Hornets are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Charlotte.
Plays on underdogs (Charlotte) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games on the season. Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six Friday games. Bet the Hornets Friday.
|12-06-18||Rockets v. Jazz -2||Top||91-118||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -2
The Utah Jazz were knocked out of the playoffs by the Houston Rockets last year. Their revenge tour doesn’t stop just because they won 100-89 in Houston earlier this season. They want to kick the Rockets while they’re down and win at home here tonight as mere 2-point home favorites.
This is a Rockets team that’s really struggling right now. They have gone just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. They’ve lost to the likes of the Pistons, Cavs, Wizards, Mavericks and Timberwolves. Their only wins came against the Bulls and struggling Spurs.
The Jazz are playing better now that their best player in Donovan Mitchell is healthy. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming on the road by two points. Their three wins came by a total of 52 points, or by an average of 17.3 points per game.
The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on one days’ rest. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Quin Snyder is 37-19 ATS when playing against a team that wins 40% to 49% of their games as the coach of Utah. Bet the Jazz Thursday.
|12-06-18||Jaguars +5.5 v. Titans||9-30||Loss||-108||9 h 31 m||Show|
15* Jaguars/Titans AFC South ANNIHILATOR on Jacksonville +5.5
Let’s start out by looking at this game from a line value perspective. The Jaguars were 10-point favorites over the Titans at home in their first meeting. So adjust for home-field advantage, they would have been roughly 4-to-5-point road favorites at that time. Instead, they are 5.5-point road underdogs, which is basically a 10-point adjustment. The line value is clearly on the Jaguars tonight.
I like the fact that they didn’t quit on their season. The Jaguars shut out the Colts 6-0 last week, playing the role of spoiler very well. And now they want revenge on the Titans from three straight losses against them, including their 6-9 upset loss earlier this season. They would love to beat the Titans here and end their playoff hopes as well.
The Titans were fortunate to escape with a 26-22 home win over the lowly Jets last week. They trailed the Jets 6-19 in the 3rd quarter, but scored a touchdown with 36 seconds left to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. And that’s a bad Jets team that loses by double-digits week after week. They’ll have a much bigger problem with the Jaguars tonight.
The Jaguars have been a lot more competitive whenever Leonard Fournette has been in the lineup. He has missed several games due to injury, and last week he was out with a suspension. But he’s back this week and ready to have a big game against the Titans. Fournette has only played in five games this season. He’ll be fresh since he had last week off following a very productive game against the Bills the previous week.
I know the Jaguars are going with backup Cody Kessler again this week. However, he’s not much of a downgrade from Blake Bortles, who has had a brutal season. Kessler has actually shown well, completing 72.2% of his 54 attempts this season with one touchdown and one interception. He’ll be much more comfortable in his second start of the season here for the Jaguars.
The Jaguars (4-8) are the team with the stats of a 6-6 or better team, while the Titans (6-6) are a team with the stats of closer to a 4-8 team. The Jaguars actually outgain their opponents by nearly 20 yards per game on the season. They have an elite defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in giving up just 315.6 yards per game.
The Titans are actually getting outgained by 31 yards per game on the season. They have a dreadful offense that scores just 18.4 points per game while ranking 28th in total offense at 310.2 yards per game. The Jaguars should be able to shut them down, which will be a big reason why they are able to stay within this 5.5-point spread tonight.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Jacksonville) - in a game involving two good defensive teams that allow 18-23 PPG, after eight-plus games, after scoring and allowing 14 points or less last game are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983.
The Titans are 0-6 ATS vs. poor offensive teams that score 17 or less points per game over the last three seasons. The Jaguars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after scoring and allowing 14 points or less last game. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three seasons. The Titans are 15-33-3 ATS in their last 51 vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Jaguars Thursday.
|12-06-18||Knicks v. Celtics UNDER 217.5||100-128||Loss||-103||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* Knicks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 217.5
The Knicks and Celtics are clearly familiar with one another by now. This will already be their 3rd meeting of the season. Familiarity favors defense as it’s tougher for the offenses to get to their spots because the defenses usually know those spots and take them away.
The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings. They have combined for 209 or fewer points in five of those seven meetings, so I think there’s some value here with the UNDER. And both teams will be prepared defensively because the Celtics come in on four days’ rest, while the Knicks come in on two days’ rest.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (Boston) - revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite of 7 points or more, who are also off a road win are 35-13 (72.9%) over the last five seasons.
Boston is 14-4 UNDER off an upset win as a road underdog over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 4-1 in Knicks last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|12-05-18||Nebraska v. Minnesota +3.5||Top||78-85||Win||100||9 h 47 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +3.5
The No. 24 Nebraska Cornhuskers just got ranked in the Top 25 this week for the first time since 2014. I always love fading teams who jump into the Top 25 in all college sports when they aren’t used to being there. It’s a distraction, and it’s a sense of validation that makes them come out feeling a little too good about themselves, and not playing with the chip they had on their shoulder previously.
And this is a Minnesota team that I really like this season. The Golden Gophers returned five starters this year and are off to a 6-2 start this season. Their only two losses came in their only two true road games to Ohio State and Boston College.
Nebraska has feasted on a pretty weak schedule thus far playing just one true road game, which was a 2-point win at Clemson. They lost to Texas Tech by 18 on a neutral in their other tough game. This will be their toughest game yet here against a Minnesota team that is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game.
The Huskers are starting to get too much love from oddsmakers because they are 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall. But the value has been zapped, especially with their Top 25 ranking now, and that’s evident by the fact that they’re actually road favorites here against a quality Minnesota squad. They shouldn’t be favored in this matchup. The Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Huskers. Bet Minnesota Wednesday.
|12-05-18||Clippers v. Grizzlies -2||Top||86-96||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -2
The Memphis Grizzlies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four of their last five games coming in. All four losses came by 8 points or less, so they were competitive in every game. But I really like this game because of a couple other factors as well, including rest and revenge.
The Grizzlies are clearly the more rested team. They will be playing on two days’ rest having last played on Sunday. Plus, this will be just their 3rd game in 8 days. Meanwhile, the Clippers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th straight road game.
The Grizzlies want revenge from their 107-112 (OT) loss at the Clippers on November 23rd less than two weeks ago. Since that game is fresh in their minds, revenge is a factor. And given their rest advantage, they should be able to win at home this time around after losing in OT on the road in the last matchup. Keep in mind the Clippers were coming in on two days’ rest prior to that win as well.
The Grizzlies are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing on two days’ rest. Bet the Grizzlies Wednesday.
|12-05-18||St. Louis v. Southern Illinois -2||56-61||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Illinois -2
I really like this Southern Illinois team, and I think they are showing great value as only 2-point home favorites over Saint Louis tonight. It’s an SIU team that returned all five starters from a team that won 20 games last year. They will challenge Loyola for the MVC title this season.
The Salukis returned more returning scoring options than any other team in the league. Senior guard Armon Fletcher (14.1 PPG last year), senior center Kevin Pippen (12.1 PPG), senior guard Sean Lloyd (12.1 PPG) and junior guard Aaron Cook (9.8 PPG) are all back. Plus, they get the return of forward This Bol (9.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.3 BPG in 2016-17), who missed all of last season with a knee injury.
The Salukis are playing team basketball this season as they have five players averaging double-digits scoring with those four returning starters plus Eric McGill (10.8 PPG, 47.1% 3-pointers). Four of their top six scorers all shoot 43% or better from 3-point range, including three that shoot 47% or better.
Southern Illinois is 5-3 this season, but they’ve played a brutal schedule with five of their eight games on the road. Two of those losses came to Kentucky and Mass on the road, and the other was a home loss to a very good Buffalo team as dogs. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning by 10 on a neutral to Tulsa, by 15 at Colorado State outright as underdogs, and by 21 as 10-point favorites at SIU-Edwardsville.
Saint Louis is getting a lot of respect for its 6-1 start this season. But it has come against a very soft schedule with five of those seven as home games. The two road games resulted in a 2-point win against a rebuilding Seton Hall team, and a loss to Pittsburgh on a neutral. The home win over Butler last time out was impressive, but it also sets the Billikens up for a big letdown spot here.
Saint Louis is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 December road games. Southern Illinois is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons. The Billikens are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. Saint Louis is 17-35-1 ATS in its last 53 non-conference games. The Billikens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. MVC opponents. Saint Louis is 1-7 ATS in its lsat eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The Salukis are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. A-10 foes. Roll with Southern Illinois Wednesday.
|12-05-18||Thunder v. Nets +7||114-112||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +7
I think this is a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Brooklyn Nets and ‘sell high’ on the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. This number has been inflated because the Thunder have been covering machines lately, while the Nets have been big point spread losers.
Indeed, the Thunder are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall, while the Nets are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Oddsmakers have to adjust for these trends, and I think they have over-corrected here tonight.
The Nets gave the Thunder all they wanted in both meetings last year. The Nets won 100-95 as 7-point dogs on a neutral court in their first meeting. They only lost 108-109 as 9.5-point dogs at Oklahoma City in the second meeting.
Brooklyn is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Thunder. Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKC) - after going under the total by 54 or more points in their last 10 games, in the first half of the season are 40-11 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Nets Wednesday.
|12-05-18||Nuggets v. Magic +5.5||124-118||Loss||-104||7 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +5.5
I know the Magic are playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after their 105-90 win in Miami last night. But it’s short travel, and they had three days off prior to that game. So they’ll still be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here, which clearly negates this back-to-back situation. And the Magic are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on zero rest.
The Nuggets are being overvalued right now due to going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. And they are in a huge letdown spot here off their 106-103 road win over the Raptors on Monday. I don’t think they’ll be nearly as excited to face the Magic on the road tonight as they were the Raptors.
The Magic have been grossly undervalued for a month now, and it hasn’t stopped. They have gone 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They have won outright as underdogs six times during this stretch, and they’ve been a dog in 11 of those 13 games. And now they are 5.5-point home dogs here when this line should be closer to a pick ‘em.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Denver) - in non-conference games, off an upset win as a road underdog are 70-28 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Denver) - after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games, in December games are 58-17 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Magic Wednesday.
|12-04-18||Spurs +8.5 v. Jazz||105-139||Loss||-105||9 h 23 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Jazz NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +8.5
The Utah Jazz aren’t playing well enough to be laying 8.5 points to the San Antonio Spurs tonight. They are just 7-11 SU & 7-11 ATS in their last 18 games overall. I’ll gladly fade them here as massive favorites over the Spurs tonight.
I think the Jazz are a tired team right now. They will be playing their 11th game in 19 days tonight. And they’ve been on the road for 10 of their last 12 games coming in. All this travel is certainly wearing on this team. And they have the distractions from returning home from that long road trip, dealing with friends and family back home.
Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - a tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days, in December games are 69-36 (65.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Jazz are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Spurs Tuesday.
|12-04-18||Bulls +8.5 v. Pacers||Top||90-96||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +8.5
I always like backing teams in their first game with a new head coach because they seem to respond well. And I expect that to be the case for the Chicago Bulls here tonight. They fired Fred Hoiberg on Monday, and now longtime NBA assistant Jim Boylen takes over. Boylen was an assistant coach under Frank Vogel and the Pacers from 2011-13.
The Bulls also recently got back their best player in big man Lauir Markkanen, who scored 10 points in 26 minutes in his season debut against the Rockets after missing each of team’s first 23 games with an elbow injury. Markkanen is expected to start Tuesday after coming off the bench against the Rockets.
The Pacers have been without guard Victor Oladipo for the past seven games due to a knee injury. He remains out tonight. The Pacers have gone just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games with one of their wins coming against the lowly Suns by 5 points. They can’t be laying 8.5 points tonight to the Bulls without Oladipo.
Plays on underdogs (Chicago) - off two or more consecutive road losses, in December games are 67-32 (67.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulls are 13-3 ATS in December games over the past two seasons. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.
|12-04-18||Notre Dame v. Oklahoma -1.5||Top||80-85||Win||100||7 h 50 m||Show|
20* Notre Dame/Oklahoma ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma -1.5
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will take on the Oklahoma Sooners inside Madison Square Garden tonight. While both of these teams are 6-1 on the season, it’s easy to tell that the Sooners have the more impressive 6-1 record and they should handle the Fighting Irish at home here tonight.
Notre Dame lost its top two scorers and three of its top four from a year ago in Bonzie Colson (19.7 PPG, 10.1 RPG), Matt Farrell (16.3 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Martinas Gene (11.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG). That’s a lot of production to have to replace.
All you really need to know is that Notre Dame lost to Radford 60-63 at home as 11.5-point favorites. And they’ve played each of their first seven games of the season at home against weak competition, so this will be their first road game and by far their stiffest test of the season. They barely beat a bad Illinois team 76-74 at home, which is the best team they’ve faced yet.
Oklahoma’s 6-1 start has been much more impressive. The Sooners have played five of their first seven games either on a neutral court or on the road. They beat both Dayton and Florida on a neutral court, and their only loss this season has come to Wisconsin on a neutral, and Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the Big Ten.
Notre Dame is 2-10 ATS after covering two of their last three ATS over the last two seasons. Oklahoma is 15-6 ATS when playing against a team that wins greater than 80% of their games over the last three seasons. Lon Kruger is a perfect 9-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in two straight games as the coach of Oklahoma. Roll with Oklahoma Tuesday.
|12-03-18||Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5||Top||13-28||Win||100||75 h 55 m||Show|
20* Redskins/Eagles MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 45.5
This is a division rivalry with a lot at stake. The Eagles are trying to keep pace with the Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East, while the Redskins are just trying to stay afloat after a fast start to the season. I think this game will be played closer to the vest, and I certainly think it favors both defenses than both offenses, which is why I’ll side with the UNDER Monday night.
Both offenses are really struggling this season. The Redskins rank 27th in total offense at 331.5 yards per game, while the Eagles are 19th at 353.9 yards per game. The Redskins are also 27th in scoring offense at 20.0 points per game, while the Eagles are 23rd at 20.9 points per game.
Both of these teams are led by their defenses. The Redskins are 7th in scoring defense, giving up just 20.8 points per game. The Eagles are 15th at 23.0 points per game, but I have no doubt they are better than that with the talent that’s on hand.
And Philadelphia should have no problem shutting down a Washington offense that has been plagued by injuries along the offenses line, at the skill positions, and at quarterback. The Redskins are using backup QB Colt McCoy after Alex Smith suffered a gruesome injury a few weeks back. And he’s getting no protection and terrible play from the skill positions outside of TE Jordan Reed due to injuries.
Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Washington) - in a game involving two good defensive teams that allow 18-23 PPG, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 38-13 (74.5%) over the last five seasons.
Philadelphia is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more yards per attempts over the last three seasons. The Eagles are 9-2 UNDER in home games where the total is 42.5 to 49 points over the last two seasons. Philadelphia is 8-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last three years. The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games after having lost two of their last three games coming in over the last three years. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-03-18||Rockets -1.5 v. Wolves||91-103||Loss||-104||8 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -1.5
The Houston Rockets have been very good when Chris Paul, James Harden and Clint Capela have been on the floor at the same time. They’ve been dreadful without one or more of them. Well, all three are healthy, and the Rockets are as healthy as they’ve been all season right now.
It has started to show in their play the past two games as well. They went into San Antonio and won by 31 as 4-point favorites. Then they handled their business at home against Chicago in a 16-point win as 13-point favorites. And I expect them to go on the road and beat the Timberwolves tonight.
Minnesota played well without Jimmy Butler for a while, but it’s going to catch up with them sooner rather than later. And they lost to the Celtics 109-118 at home as 1.5-point favorites last time out. That was a Celtics team in a tough spot playing the second of a back-to-back.
The Timberwolves are simply getting way too much respect from oddsmakers because of their recent success without Butler, but it has come against some of the worst teams in the NBA in Brooklyn, Chicago, Cleveland and San Antonio. This is a big step up in class, just like the Celtics were.
The Rockets have simply owned the Timberwolves, going 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings. Houston is 12-0 ATS in its last 12 games following seven or more consecutive overs. Roll with the Rockets Monday.
|12-03-18||Wizards v. Knicks +2||110-107||Loss||-107||8 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2
The New York Knicks have been flying under the radar in recent weeks. They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, and I’ve been on them for the majority of the wins. And now they’re once again undervalued as home underdogs to the struggling Washington Wizards when they shouldn’t be.
The Knicks have four outright upsets as 7.5-point dogs or more in their last seven games, which just shows how undervalued they’ve been. They won outright on the road as 14.5-point dogs at Boston and 8-point dogs at Memphis. They also won outright at home as 7.5-point dogs against New Orleans and 8-point dogs against Milwaukee.
The Wizards are 9-14 SU & 8-14-1 ATS this season. They have really struggled on the road, going 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS while getting outscored by a whopping 14.1 points per game in the process. They play zero defense on the road, giving up 122.4 points per game. I just don’t agree with them being favorites here given their road woes and how well the Knicks are playing.
Washington is 6-21 ATS in road games against Atlantic Division opponents over the last three seasons. The Wizards are 1-9 ATS vs. teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game this season. Washington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the Knicks Monday.
|12-02-18||Chargers v. Steelers -3||Top||33-30||Loss||-120||60 h 52 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -3
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a misleading 17-24 road loss to the Denver Broncos. I think it has them undervalued this week, and they should be laying more than a field goal to the San Diego Chargers on Sunday Night Football.
The Steelers clearly deserved to win that game against the Broncos. They amassed 527 total yards and held the Broncos to 308, outgaining them by 219 yards. Yet, they still found a way to lose because they lost the turnover battle 4-0. They had several drives inside the Denver 20-yard line that resulted in zero points, including the final drove where Big Ben was intercepted in the end zone.
I still believe the Steelers are closer to the team that had won six straight prior to that lost while going 5-0-1 ATS than the one that lost to the Broncos. They should be re-focused at home Sunday night against a Chargers team that has lost every time they’ve stepped up in class.
The Chargers lost by 10 at home to the Chiefs and by 12 on the road to the Rams. They also lost at home to that same Broncos team. Their eight wins have come against the Bills, 49ers, Raiders (twice), Browns, Titans, Seahawks and Cardinals. Only one of those teams has a winning record, and that’s Seattle, and the Chargers had a bye prior to facing the Seahawks so it was a dream spot for them.
The Chargers lost their best weapon on offense last week to a knee injury in Melvin Gordon. His absence is huge in this game as the Chargers need all the weapons they can get to keep up with this high-powered Steelers offense. Gordon has rushed for 802 yards and nine touchdowns, while also catching 44 balls for 453 yards and four scores. He is their third-leading receiver, so he’ll be missed in the passing game as well.
Plays on favorites (Pittsburgh) - after having won three of their last four games against an opponent that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Mike Tomlin is 8-1 ATS after gaining 500 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of Pittsburgh. Take the Steelers Sunday.
|12-02-18||Clippers v. Mavs +2.5||110-114||Win||100||7 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks +2.5
The Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now and should not be home underdogs to the Los Angeles Clippers. They are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only two losses coming on the road to the Lakers and Grizzlies.
The Mavs are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six home games, beating the Wizards, Thunder, Jazz, Warriors, Nets and Celtics along the way. So they have beaten some of the league’s best teams at home during this stretch. They also won at Houston by 20 as 5.5-point underdogs.
The Clippers are the team that’s starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after their surprising 15-6 start to the season. They have won eight of their last nine coming in, but most of that has come against the league’s worst teams. Now they are road favorites over the Mavs when they shouldn’t be.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Mavs have won 29 of their last 40 home meetings with the Clippers. The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Dallas is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Take the Mavericks Sunday.
|12-02-18||Bills +4.5 v. Dolphins||Top||17-21||Win||100||83 h 53 m||Show|
20* AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Buffalo Bills +4.5
I won on both the Bills and Dolphins last week. They were my two top play winners in an otherwise disappointing 2-3 Sunday. But I’m sticking with the Bills this week and fading the Dolphins. The Dolphins go from being 9-point underdogs to the Colts to now 4.5-point favorites against the Bills. That’s nearly a 14-point swing from week to week, and I think it’s too much.
I believe the Bills to be the better of these two teams. Miami has one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL over the past several seasons because fans simply don’t show up. So they can’t be laying 4.5 points here. This line should be Miami -2.5 or even -3 at the most.
I trust the Bills more because of their defense. They actually rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense this season. They rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per play defense, only behind the Ravens and Bears. And the offense got a jolt last week with Josh Allen returning at quarterback to beat the Jaguars. When Allen or Matt Barkley have been under center, the Bills have been a great bet this season.
Injuries are another reason I think the Bills have a huge advantage. The Bills have stayed remarkably healthy this season as they only have four players currently on the injury report. One is backup QB Derek Anderson, and TE Charles Clay is questionable with a hamstring. So they basically just have two players out with season-ending injuries. Miami already has 11 players lost to season-ending injuries. Two of those are their best playmakers in Albert Wilson and Jakeeem Grant, and Danny Amendola is questionable.
Having Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback helps the Dolphins, but he is lacking weapons on the outside. And the Dolphins’ 24-27 loss to the Colts last week was misleading. They only managed 314 total yards and gave up 455 total yards, getting outgained by 141 yards by the Colts. Indianapolis simply kept the Dolphins in the game by committing three turnovers. And that was a home run spot for Miami coming off their bye week. The Bills also had a bye last week, so both teams are fresh.
Tannehill is really going to struggle without his top playmakers against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 126, 116 and 107 passing yards in its last three games, respectively. They are giving up just 116.3 passing yards per game over their past three games, and they’ve held six of their past seven opponents to 156 passing yards or fewer. That’s almost unheard of in today’s NFL and it just goes to show how elite this defense really is. They have held four of their last six opponents to 83 or fewer rushing yards as well.
Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. poor offensive teams that average 4.75 or fewer yards per play. The Dolphins are 18-46-3 ATS in their last 67 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Miami. Bet the Bills Sunday.
|12-02-18||Broncos v. Bengals +5.5||24-10||Loss||-110||53 h 33 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Bengals +5.5
This is the ultimate ‘buy low, sell high’ situation here. We’ll buy low on the Bengals, who have lost three straight and five of their last six, meaning the betting public wants nothing to do with them. And we’ll sell high on the Broncos, who are coming off back-to-back upset victories over the Chargers and Steelers.
The Broncos were coming off their bye prior to that win over the Chargers, so it was a great spot for them. And only poor coaching by the Chargers allowed the Broncos to win that game. They erased a 19-7 deficit to win 23-22. And the Steelers win was even more misleading. The Broncos were outgained by 219 yards and gave up 527 total yards to the Steelers. But they won the turnover battle 4-0. It was a complete fluke.
The Bengals have been plagued by injuries, which is a big reason for their recent struggles. But they are expected to get star receiver AJ Green back from injury this week, and he makes a huge difference for this team. I know the Bengals will be without Andy Dalton this week, but Jeff Driskel really impressive me last week, and I think he’s good enough to beat the Broncos with Green at his disposal now.
The Bengals trailed the Browns 28-0 last week. They only ended up losing 20-35, and a lot of that had to do with Driskel. They seemed energized when he came into the game, and that should carry over this week. Driskel finished 17-of-29 passing for 155 yards with a touchdown in the comeback attempt, while also rushing for a score. I think this team continues to be energized by their backup QB, who is better than he gets credit for.
Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Denver) - after having won two of their last three games, a team that wins 40% to 49% of their games on the season playing a losing team are 68-27 (71.6%) ATS since 1983.
The Broncos are 4-11 ATS int heir last 15 road games. Denver is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game. The Bengals are 9-3 ATS int heir last 12 vs. AFC opponents. Cincinnati is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 December games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet the Bengals Sunday.
|12-02-18||Ravens v. Falcons -1.5||26-16||Loss||-110||53 h 32 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Falcons -1.5
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are getting way too much respect for back-to-back home wins against the Bengals and Raiders. These two teams have been two of the worst in the NFL over the past month-plus, so those wins are nothing to write home about.
Plus, they only beat the Bengals by a final of 24-21 as 6.5-point home favorites, so they failed to cover the spread. And they were extremely fortunate to cover against the Raiders last week as 13-point favorites, winning 34-17 thanks to two non-offensive touchdowns with one on special teams and one on defense.
The Ravens take a big step up in class this week against the Falcons. The Falcons are undervalued off three straight losses, which followed up three straight wins. But they had their chance to win each of the last three games, but they blew it with red zone struggles.
Atlanta’s 17-31 loss at New Orleans last week was one of the most misleading final scores of the week. I know because I had the Falcons +13.5 in that game and was extremely unlucky not to cash that ticket. The Flacons outgained the Saints and held them to just 312 total yards, but they committed four turnovers, including three fumbles inside New Orleans’ 20-yard line. Had they simply kicked one field goal on one of those three drives, they would have covered the 13.5-point spread.
Now Atlanta has the rest advantage in this one after playing last Thursday, while Baltimore had to play on Sunday. So the Falcons got to watch Baltimore and Lamar Jackson, and their defense will know how to stop them. Their offense will also find some holes, unlike Cincinnati or Oakland did the two previous weeks with two bad offenses. And the Falcons have a better defense than either of those two teams, especially since they are supposed to get MLB Deion Jones back from injury. He’ll be key in slowing down Jackson and company this week.
Baltimore is 0-6 ATS after outgaining its previous opponent by 150 or more total yards over the past three season. It is coming back to lose by 6.3 points per game on average in this spot. The Ravens are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win by 14-plus points. The value is on Atlanta as a short home favorite this week. Roll with the Falcons Sunday.
|12-01-18||Northwestern v. Ohio State -14||Top||24-45||Win||100||67 h 47 m||Show|
20* Northwestern/Ohio State Big Ten BAILOUT on Ohio State -14
Because Ohio State came out No. 6 in the playoff rankings this week, they know they need style points to get in. This really feels like a few years ago when they needed style points against Wisconsin. They were actually underdogs in that game and won 59-0. They got in over TCU because of it, and went on to win the national title.
Ohio State knows how to put the hammer down when it needs to. And the Buckeyes certainly put the hammer down last week by scoring 62 points against Michigan’s No. 1 ranked defense in the country. I don’t think I’ve seen a more impressive performance all season. And it just shows what the Buckeyes are capable of when they are locked in. They’ll be locked in Saturday night looking to impress the playoff committee again.
I’ve thought Northwestern was overrated most of the season. They’ve squeaked out a ton of close wins this season to win the Big Ten West division. And basically everyone else in their division fell apart around them to help them out.
This is a Northwestern team that is only outscoring opponents by 2 points per game this season. They are actually getting outgained by 27 yards per game in Big Ten play. Their offense ranks 126th out of 130 teams in yards per play (4.6). They are one-dimensional, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. It’s an offense that puts up just 23.7 points per game this season, and I just don’t believe Clayton Thorson is capable of matching the Buckeyes score for score.
I like the fact that this game is played indoors in a dome in Indianapolis. That’s going to favor Ohio State’s high-powered offense. The Buckeyes average 43.3 points and 544 yards per game this season. When I’m laying double-digit points, I need it to be with an elite offense that I know is going to hang a big number. Ohio State certainly fits the bill.
I don’t believe this game will ever be close with the exception of early on in the first quarter. But say Ohio State is up by 10 in the final minutes. They won’t simply kneel on it. They’ll go down and try to score for style points because they need to leapfrog Oklahoma or whoever else is in their way in the playoff standings. So we have that in our back pocket if we need it. I don’t think we’ll need it, though.
The Buckeyes are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. Ohio State is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Northwestern. Urban Meyer is 13-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached. Take Ohio State Saturday.
|12-01-18||South Dakota State -3.5 v. Northern Iowa||82-50||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Dakota State -3.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers are a tired team right now. They’ve stayed in hotels 16 of the past 21 nights and it’s clearly affecting their play. Now they’re in another hotel for this US Bank Stadium Classic in Minneapolis to face South Dakota State tonight.
This is a very good SDSU team that returned four starters from a squad that went 28-7 last year, including 13-1 in Summit League play. They got great news in the offseason when Mike Daum announced he was returning to SDSU after initially entering his name in the NBA Draft. He has won the Summit League Player of the Year each of the last two seasons, and Freshman Player of the Year before that. He averaged 23.9 PPG and 10.3 RPG last season.
Northern Iowa gets too much love for what it has done in year’s past, but the Panthers just haven’t been very good the past two seasons. Head coach Ben Jacobson is trying to implement a more up-tempo system in this rebuilding year, and it’s not going so well. The tough travel hasn’t helped as they will now be on the road for a 7th consecutive game.
Northern Iowa is 3-4 SU and just 1-5 ATS in lined games this season. Their only wins have come against Bemidji State, Eastern Kentucky by 5 and Old Dominion by 1. They lost to Pennsylvania by 7, UT-Arlington by 9, ODU by 7 and Utah State by 19. And South Dakota State is probably the best team they will have faced yet.
Northern Iowa is 1-10 ATS in December games over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 0-7 ATS off a loss by 15 points or more over the last three years. The Jack Rabbits are 15-2 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. Bet South Dakota State Saturday.
|12-01-18||Bucks v. Knicks +8.5||134-136||Win||100||5 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8.5
The New York Knicks have been grossly underrated over the last few weeks. They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, which includes outright road upsets over Boston as 14.5-point dogs, Memphis as 8-point dogs, and a home upset of New Orleans as 7.5-point dogs.
I’ve been riding the Knicks for the majority of these games. Their only non-cover was against the 76ers last time out, but that was the second of a back-to-back and a tough spot. They have now had two days’ rest since playing the 76ers on Wednesday and should be fresh and ready to go at home tonight.
The Bucks are starting to be grossly overrated due to their hot start to the season. They are 15-6 on the season, but just 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games. They lost outright to the Suns as 13.5-point home favorites, and outright to the Hornets as 4.5-point road favorites. They only beat the Spurs by 6 as 10-point home favorites and the Bulls by 3 as 15-point home favorites. And now they are massive 8.5-point road favorites against the Knicks tonight, which is simply too much.
New York wants revenge from a 113-124 loss at Milwaukee as 11.5-point underdogs in their first meeting of the season on October 22nd. The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games. The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Plays against any team (Milwaukee) - off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, in Saturday games are 70-33 (68%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Knicks Saturday.
|12-01-18||Georgia +14 v. Alabama||28-35||Win||100||62 h 31 m||Show|
15* Georgia/Alabama SEC ANNIHILATOR on Georgia +14
The betting public is infatuated with Alabama right now. They are just betting the Crimson Tide blindly because they have been so good to them all season. It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Crimson Tide this week because bettors are clearly paying a tax to bet them at this point in the season. They should not be two touchdown favorites over Georgia, one of the top teams in the country.
The tax caught up to the Crimson Tide two weeks ago in their 50-17 win over The Citadel. That game was tied 10-10 at halftime believe it or not. And last week they only led Auburn 17-14 at halftime and did not deserve to cover the 25.5-point spread. But they outscored the Tigers 35-7 after intermission to get the cover. Georgia will offer a lot more resistance than any other team Alabama has played this season.
Georgia has had revenge in mind since a 26-23 (OT) loss to Alabama in the National Championship Game last year. They led that game 13-0 at halftime and feel like they let it slip away. I am 100% confident we’ll get the biggest effort of the season from Georgia in the SEC Championship Game this week, and that should be enough to stay within two touchdowns of the Crimson Tide, possibly pulling off the upset.
I think Georgia’s 16-36 loss at LSU was a blessing in disguise back in early October. They gave that game away by committing four turnovers. They have only committed five turnovers in five games since, and they’ve gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Their only non-cover came in a 39-point win as 41.5-point favorites over UMass. Big deal. They have won all five games by at least 17 points.
Alabama hasn’t had to face an offense as good as Georgia’s this season. The Bulldogs score 40.1 points per game an average 481 yards per game. Their ground game is elite once again as they rush for 260 yards per game and 6.3 per carry. And Jake Fromm is completing 69.1% of his passes with a 24-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.6 per attempt. He held his own against Alabama as a freshman last year and was the biggest reason they had a shot to win that game. Fromm won’t fold in the SEC Championship Game having that experience in his hip pocket.
Georgia is 9-1 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games over the past two seasons. The Bulldogs are 12-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. Georgia is 10-2 ATS vs. good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last two years. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
Plays on neutral field underdogs (Georgia) - an excellent rushing team that averages 225 or more rushing yards per game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in four straight games coming in are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS since 1992. Roll with Georgia Saturday.
|12-01-18||Memphis +3.5 v. Central Florida||Top||41-56||Loss||-115||61 h 7 m||Show|
25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Memphis +3.5
I was on the Memphis Tigers last week in a dominant 52-31 win over Houston. They took advantage of Houston’s starting QB being out, and now they’ll take advantage of UCF’s starting QB being out this week as well. The wrong team is favored in this matchup, and I love everything about Memphis in this AAC Championship Game Saturday.
The streak ends here. UCF has won 24 consecutive games over the past two seasons, but all of that was with QB McKenzie Milton at quarterback. He has accounted for 80 total touchdowns over the past two seasons, more than any other player in college football. He is simply irreplaceable.
UCF’s backup is freshman Darriel Mack Jr. He has gotten some action this season in either mop up duty or like last week against USF in the second half after Milton went out. He has not been impressive at all. Mack Jr. is completing just 48.8% of his 43 attempts and averaging only 4.0 yards per attempt. He hasn’t thrown a single touchdown pass on those 43 attempts, either.
Mack Jr. is more of a running quarterback as he has rushed for 281 yards on 40 attempts. Well, that plays right into the hands of Memphis, who have the better defense in this matchup, especially against the run. The Tigers are only giving up 3.9 yards per carry on 40 attempts per game this year. That is the strength of their defense.
UCF has been good at stopping the pass, but terrible at stopping the run. The Knights give up 212 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry, including 262 rushing yards per game in their last four games coming in. The Tigers average 276 rushing yards per game and 6.4 per attempt. Don’t get me wrong, they’re still a great passing team at 254 yards per game and 8.6 per attempt behind Brady White, but their strength is their ground game.
And Memphis has one of the best running backs in the country and a future NFL star in Darrell Henderson. He has rushed for the second-most yards in the nation with 1,700 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 8.6 per carry. He is a huge back who is tough to bring down, and he has tremendous explosiveness and quickness for a big guy. Henderson rushed for 199 yards against UCF in their first meeting.
Speaking of that first meeting, Memphis will be playing with triple-revenge from three losses to UCF over the past two seasons. They blew a 30-14 lead over UCF and lost 30-31 at home in their first meeting this season. They also lost during the regular season last year at UCF and again at UCF 55-62 in overtime in last year’s AAC Championship Game. To say they want revenge would be a massive understatement, and they don’t care that Milton is out, they just want to beat this UCF team so badly.
I don’t think UCF should be favored at all without Milton. And I just don’t see how the Knights can keep up on the scoreboard with this high-powered Memphis offense that averages 43.8 points and 530 yards per game this season. They hung 52 on Houston last week and amassed 610 total yards, including 410 rushing. They have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and are playing their best football of the season down the stretch when these games matter most.
Memphis is 7-0 ATS vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 200 or more rushing yards per game over the last two seasons. It is winning by 30.3 points per game on average in this spot. Bet Memphis Saturday.
|11-30-18||Oklahoma State v. Minnesota -2.5||76-83||Win||100||14 h 52 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma State/Minnesota BTN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -2.5
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They are coming off a disappointing, injury-plagued 15-17 season. And they are definitely flying under the radar in the early going. This is a Minnesota team that returned five starters from last year while also bringing in talented transfers and freshmen.
Oklahoma State loses four of its top five scorers from last year, including Jeffrey Carroll (15.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG) & Kendall Smith (13.1 PPG). They also lost five of their top seven scorers who combined to average 53 points per game. That’s going to be tough to replace with just two starters returning and their leading returning starter averaging 8.7 PPG.
Minnesota is happy to be back home after four straight road games, and they’ve done well to go 5-1 this season. They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two home games, beating Nebraska-Omaha by 28 as 14.5-point favorites and Utah by 9 as 8-point favorites.
Oklahoma State is 4-2 on the season. It is getting too much respect from its wins over LSU, Memphis, UTSA & College of Charleston. But they lost by 19 to Villanova on a neutral, and they suffered a big upset in their only true road game at Charlotte as 13-point favorites. If they can’t beat Charlotte on the road, they have no chance of this deep, experienced Minnesota squad.
Oklahoma State is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games as a road dog of 3 points or less or PK. Dating back further, the Cowboys are 24-45 ATS in their last 69 games as a road dog of 6 points or less or PK. Boynton is 2-9 ATS after having won four or five of his last six games as the coach of Oklahoma State. Roll with Minnesota Friday.
|11-30-18||Utah v. Washington -5||Top||3-10||Win||100||43 h 43 m||Show|
20* Utah/Washington Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Washington -5
The Washington Huskies were one of the most overrated teams in the country all season. So despite the fact that they went 9-3 SU, they went just 3-9 ATS. They were consistently laying too many points week in and week out because many expected them to be a playoff contender coming into the season.
This is the role I like them in. The Huskies are only 5-point favorites here against the Utes. Two of their three covers this season came as a small favorite or underdog. They won 21-7 at Utah in their first meeting as 4-point favorites, and then last week put together their most complete performance of the season in a 28-15 win at Washington State as 3-point dogs.
The line in that first meeting with Utah is important. Washington was a 4-point favorite in that true road game, and now they are only a 5-point favorite on a neutral field in the rematch. When you adjust for Utah’s massive home-field advantage, Washington would have been around an 8-point favorite on a neutral back then. So we are getting value here.
And I think Utah has gotten worse since that game while Washington has gotten better. The Utes have lost starting QB Huntley and starting RB Moss, their two best players on offense. Washington State has gotten a healthy Myles Gaskins back at RB after missing a few games and TE Hunter Bryant who missed the first nine games of the season.
The Huskies outgained Washington State by 250 total yards last week. They rushed for 258 yards, including 170 and three touchdowns from Gaskins. And Bryant is one of the most talented tight ends in the country, so Jake Browning is glad to have him back. He caught three balls for 108 yards and a touchdown in the snow against the Cougars.
Meanwhile, Utah had to erase a 27-7 deficit in the second half last week to come back and beat BYU 35-27. The Utes did not deserve to win that game at all as they managed just 296 total yards and were outgained by 61 yards. But they used a lot of energy to erase that deficit, and they haven’t had a bye since mid-September. They are running on fumes right now.
Washington gets an extra days’ rest after playing Washington State last Friday, while Utah had to play a late-night game on Saturday. And the Huskies just had their bye on November 10th, so they are by far the fresher team. It explains their solid play to close out the season, and I think they have another big performance in them here Friday night as they claim the Pac-12 title in blowout fashion. Bet Washington Friday.
|11-30-18||Cavs v. Celtics -12||95-128||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -12
The Boston Celtics are a good ‘buy low’ candidate right now. They have gotten off to a disappointing 11-10 start this season, but they are starting to play up to their potential. They beat Atlanta by 18 on the road and New Orleans by 17 on the road in winning two of their last three coming in.
Now the Celtics are well-rested and ready to go having last played on Monday, coming in on three days’ rest. Meanwhile, they’ll be playing a Cleveland Cavaliers team that will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. So the Celtics should have a huge advantage in the rest department here.
And I haven’t even factored in that the Cavaliers are one of the worst teams in the NBA yet. Cleveland is 4-16 this season, including 1-9 on the road where they are losing by an average of double-digits per game. They are coming off a 17-point loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night.
Boston is 12-1 ATS after having lost four or five of their last six games coming in over the past two seasons. The Celtics are 15-3 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 19-43-2 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games. Take the Celtics Friday.
|11-29-18||Clippers v. Kings UNDER 235.5||Top||133-121||Loss||-112||11 h 18 m||Show|
20* Clippers/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 235.5
I cashed the Clippers/Suns UNDER 230 last night with ease in a game that saw only 214 combined points. And now I’m back on the UNDER in another Clippers game tonight, this time with a total even higher (235.5) and against the Sacramento Kings.
The Clippers won’t be looking to push the tempo playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here. And a big reason I was on the UNDER last night was because Avery Bradley is healthy now, and the Clippers have the best defensive backcourt in the NBA with Bradley and Patrick Beverly. They made life tough on Devin Booker last night, and they will make life tough on De’Aron Fox and the Kings guards tonight as well.
I think this number is inflated because the Kings have gone over the total in six straight, while the Clippers have gone over seven of their last nine. It’s an overreaction and one we’ll take advantage of here just as we did last night.
The Clippers and Kings have combined for 236 or fewer points in 86 straight meetings dating back to 1996. They have combined for 232 or fewer points in 84 of those 86 meetings. The UNDER is 16-5 in Kings last 21 home games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five games following a double-digit home loss.
Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 210 or higher (LA Clippers) - who give up 43.5% to 45.5% shooting on the season against a team that gives up 45.5% to 47.5% after five straight games where they held their opponent to 42% or less are 26-6 (81.2%) over the last five seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|11-29-18||Pacers v. Lakers -4.5||96-104||Win||100||11 h 17 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Lakers NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers should be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight. They are coming off back-to-back losses, including their worst loss of the season in an 85-117 setback at Denver. It was definitely Lebron James’ worst game of the season. James and company will be looking to make amends tonight.
The Pacers are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers off back-to-back road wins at Utah and Phoenix. And now they’ll be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days. Plus, they’ll be without their best player in Victor Oladipo (21.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.7 APG). I just don’t think they’ll even be competitive tonight against a motivated Lakers squad without Oladipo.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Lakers and Pacers. The home team is 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Lakers have won their last two home meetings with the Pacers outright as underdogs by 13 points each, and they didn’t have James or near the talent they have now in those two matchups.
The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their road games. Los Angeles is 7-2 ATS in its last nine Thursday games, while Indiana is 16-33-2 ATS in its last 51 Thursday games. The Lakers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with the Lakers Thursday.
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +8||Top||10-13||Win||100||18 h 23 m||Show|
20* Saints/Cowboys NFC Thursday No-Brainer on Dallas +8
The New Orleans Saints have now covered in nine straight games. The betting public has made a fortune off this team and they’ll continue to back them every week until they lose. Oddsmakers haven’t been able to set their lines high enough. And there’s no question the value is on the Dallas Cowboys this week catching more than a touchdown at home.
I had the Falcons +13.5 against the Saints last week in a 14-point loss. It was clearly a right side loser as the Falcons were the better team in that game but found a way to lose by 14. They outgained the Saints by 54 yards and held them to 312 total yards, but lost the turnover battle 4-1. And the Falcons lost three fumbles inside New Orleans’ 20-yard line that took points off the board. It was a complete fluke.
I like the way the Cowboys have rallied the troops and are feeling good about themselves right now. They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, which includes upset road wins over the Eagles and Falcons, and a 31-23 home win over the Redskins last week. They dominated the Redskins in that game.
This Dallas offense has taken off since Amari Cooper came over from Oakland. Cooper already has 22 receptions for 349 yards and three touchdowns in four games for the Cowboys. He has opened up things for Ezekiel Elliott, who has rushed for at least 121 yards in three straight games now. This offense has what it takes to move the chains and keep Drew Brees on the sidelines.
Of course, it also helps that the Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Dallas ranks 7th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 331.1 yards per game. The Cowboys are even better in the all-important scoring defense (19.4) category. Only the Ravens and Bears have been better in that department.
Sean Payton is 2-10 ATS in road games after having won eight or more of their last 10 games as the coach of the Saints. Dallas is 11-2 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more total yards per game over the last two seasons. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Cowboys Thursday.
|11-28-18||Suns v. Clippers UNDER 230||Top||99-115||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Clippers UNDER 230
The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA when both Avery Bradley and Patrick Beverly are on the floor. They make life hell on opposing guards, and they’ll do just that against Devin Booker of the Suns tonight.
The Suns have improved defensively this season, but their offense as stalled because nobody other than Booker can make plays consistently. The defensive improvement has come from the additions of Trevor Ariza and DeAndre Ayton. The Suns are combining with their opponents to average just 218.4 points per game this season. That’s well UNDER this 230-point mark.
I think the fact that the Clippers have gone over the total in seven of their last eight coming in has inflated this number. But they didn’t have Bradley for the majority of it, and having him back healthy will improve their defense greatly.
The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 210, 203 and 218 in the three UNDERS. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Los Angeles. Phoenix is 16-5 UNDER after allowing 105 or more points in five straight games over the last two seasons.
Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 210 or more (LA Clippers) - after a win by 6 points or less against an opponent that’s off a loss by 6 points or less are 52-22 (70.3%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|11-28-18||Portland State +12 v. Stanford||67-79||Push||0||10 h 3 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +12
Portland State has been grossly underrated the last few seasons in non-conference play. The Vikings are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. They are coming off a 20-win season and should be competitive in the Big Sky once again this year.
The roster now has the quickness that will fit second-year coach Barret Peery’s up-tempo, high-pressure style. The Vikings do lose three starters from last year’s team, but they return Big Sky Freshman of the Year Holland Woods, who averaged 10.5 PPG and led the league in assists last year. And Peery got a large influx of talent via transfers this offseason that will help with depth.
Stanford also returns just three starters and lost three of its top four scorers from last season, including its top two in Reid Travis (19.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and Dorian Pickens (15.1 PPG). It’s no wonder the Cardinal have struggled to a 3-3 start this season with its only wins coming against Seattle, UNC-Wilmington and Middle Tennessee. All three losses came by 16 points or more.
Stanford is 1-9 ATS after allowing 60 points or less last game over the past three seasons. Portland State is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games over the past two years. The Cardinal are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big Sky foes. The Vikings are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five vs. Pac-12 opponents. That includes their upset 87-78 win over Stanford as 6.5-point dogs last year on a neutral court. They’ll hang around in the rematch this season. Take Portland State Wednesday.
|11-28-18||Spurs +4.5 v. Wolves||89-128||Loss||-105||8 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on San Antonio Spurs +4.5
The Timberwolves are starting to get too much love from oddsmakers. They have won three straight, but those three victories came against the Nets, Bulls and Cavs, three of the worst teams in the entire NBA. They take a big step up in class here against the Spurs tonight.
Few teams have owned a franchise quite like the Spurs have owned the Timberwolves. San Antonio is 14-1 SU in its last 15 meetings with Minnesota. That’s why they should not even be underdogs in this game, let alone 4.5-point dogs, which could easily come into play tonight.
The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Minnesota. Roll with the Spurs Wednesday.
|11-28-18||Jazz -3.5 v. Nets||101-91||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -3.5
The Jazz have to be highly motivated for a victory right now. They have lost four of their last five coming in. But they get their best player in Donovan Mitchell back from a rib injury, and he is worth more to the point spread for this team than almost any other player in the NBA.
The Nets suffered a big blow when they lost Caris LeVert, their best player, to a foot injury a few weeks ago. They have struggled to find their footing, going just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall. They should be catching more than just 3.5 points here against the Jazz.
Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents. Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Nets, and 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Brooklyn.
Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Utah) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in non-conference games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1996. Take the Jazz Wednesday.
|11-28-18||Wyoming v. Evansville -2.5||78-86||Win||100||7 h 3 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Evansville -2.5
Both Evansville and Wyoming are inexperienced teams who return one starter apiece. But I’ll gladly fade the Cowboys, who lose four of their top five scorers from last year, and are currently playing without one of their starters in Jordan Naugton due to a knee injury.
I like Evansville’s hiring of hometown legend Walter McCarty, a 10-year NBA veteran and former All-American at Kentucky. He was hired off Brad Stevens’ staff with the Celtics. He brings the program some hope, and the early returns haven’t been bad.
Evansville has gone 3-1 ATS in lined games this season. They blew out their two opponents at home, including their 22-point win over Texas Southern as 4-point favorites. Their three losses all came on the road to Illinois, Xavier and Ball State, but they covered the spread in two of those, including their 6-point loss at Xavier as 20.5-point dogs.
Wyoming has had a plethora of questionable results thus far. They lost to UC-Santa Barbara outright by 10 as 6-point home favorites and Niagara outright by 5 as 7.5-point home favorites. They also lost by 19 as 10-point dogs at Oregon State and by 12 as 8-point dogs to Boston College. They are just 1-5 ATS this season and their two wins have come against Grambling by 8 as 12.5-point favorites and by 2 over Richmond. I’m not quite sure why they are getting so much respect from oddsmakers tonight based on those results.
Evansville is 6-0 ATS in his last six home games with a total of 140 to 149.5 points. The Purple Aces are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Wyoming is 16-33-3 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Cowboys are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win. Bet Evansville Wednesday.
|11-27-18||NC State v. Wisconsin -6||75-79||Loss||-108||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* NC State/Wisconsin ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Wisconsin -6
I love fading NC State in this situation. The Wolfpack have opened 6-0 and are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers because of it tonight. But they haven’t played anyone of any significance, and now they’ll be playing their first true road game of the season against a Wisconsin team I’m very high on.
For starters, NC State lost its two best players from last year in Allerik Freeman (16.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG) and Omer Yurtseven (13.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG). And NC State’s six wins have all come at home against the likes of Mount St. Mary’s, MD-East Shore, UNC-Asheville, Maine, St. Peters and Mercer. And they only beat Mercer by 4 as 19.5-point favorites last time out.
Wisconsin returned all five starters from last year and is a legit contender in the Big Ten. They also got some key guys back from injury and are fully healthy. They are off to a 5-1 start this year and they’ve been through the gauntlet. They beat Xavier in a true road game by 9, beat Stanford by 16 on a neutral and Oklahoma by 20 on a neutral. Their only loss came against nationally ranked Virginia by 7 as underdogs on a neutral. They are battle-tested and ready for this showdown with NC State to say the least.
NC State is 0-7 ATS off three straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons. The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team that wins better than 80% of their games on the season over the last three years. Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins better than 80% of their games over the last three years. These three trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Badgers.
NC State is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Badgers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. The Badgers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. ACC opponents. The Wolfpack are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big Ten foes. Take Wisconsin Tuesday.
|11-27-18||Knicks +7.5 v. Pistons||Top||108-115||Win||100||6 h 6 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +7.5
The New York Knicks have been undervalued for four straight games now, and I’ve been on them for three of them. I’m on them again tonight catching 7.5 points to the Pistons. Oddsmakers and the betting public just keep failing to realize this team is actually pretty good, and much better than their 7-14 record would suggest.
Four games back, the Knicks only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers. Then they went on the road and beat Boston by 8 outright as 14.5-point dogs. Then they upset the Pelicans by 5 as 7.5-point dogs. And last time out they went into Memphis and won outright by 5 as 8-point dogs. And here we are again with the Knicks catching another big number against Detroit tonight.
The Pistons come in overvalued here after going 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Unlike New York, Detroit is actually getting respect from oddsmakers now. And these are expectations that I don’t think they can live up to tonight here against the Knicks as this one should go right down to the wire with New York possibly pulling off a 4th straight upset.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - off a road win, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games when playing a team with a winning record are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on one days’ rest. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.
|11-26-18||Titans v. Texans -3.5||17-34||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
15* Titans/Texans AFC South No-Brainer on Houston -3.5
The Houston Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They have reeled off seven straight victories since their 0-3 start to the season. But they could have won any of those first three games as they were all one-score games. And they are finally winning their share of one-score games during this seven-game winning streak.
Now the Texans are as healthy as they’ve been all season. They get some key players back on defense this week and will be playing just their 2nd game in 22 days because they had a bye in Week 10. They should be primed for another big effort here on Monday Night Football to cement their place atop the AFC South standings.
The Texans will be out for revenge from a 17-20 road loss at Tennessee in their first meeting. Well, they dominated the Titans in that game and should have won. They outgained Tennessee 437 to 283 for the game, or by 154 total yards. The Titans got a 66-yard fake punt TD in that game that proved to be the difference.
Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Houston is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Tennessee with all six wins coming by 6 points or more and by an average of 19.7 points per game. So based on this series history, we are getting the Texans at a pretty cheap -3.5 price here tonight.
Tennessee is a fraudulent 5-5. The Titans are getting outgained by nearly 40 yards per game on the season. They are scoring just 17.8 points per game and rank 30th in total offense at 295.4 yards per game. The Texans are a legit 7-3, outgaining teams by 34 yards per game. They are scoring 23.9 points per game and rank 15th in total offense at 364.2 yards per game. And they have posted better defensive numbers than the Titans as well. The Texans rank 4th in yards per play (5.0) allowed, while the Titans are 10th in yards per play (5.5) allowed.
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. AFC opponents, while Tennessee is just 19-43-4 ATS in its last 66 vs. AFC foes. The Texans are 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Roll with the Texans Monday.
|11-26-18||Eastern Michigan v. TCU -12.5||Top||69-87||Win||100||7 h 21 m||Show|
20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -12.5
TCU dropped from the Top 25 with its 64-73 upset loss to Lipscomb last time out. The Horned Frogs are now 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS on the season. I think this is the time to ‘buy low’ on them knowing they’ll be primed for a big effort to bounce back from that upset loss. We’ll get TCU’s ‘A’ game tonight.
It’s easy to see why TCU opened the season in the Top 25. They returned five players who started at least 14 games last season, and five players who all averaged at least 7.9 points per game, including three that averaged in double figures. This is still a very good team, but one that hasn’t played up to its potential yet. And the Horned Frogs have had five days off since that loss to Lipscomb to get better in practice and prepare for Eastern Michigan.
Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan will be playing its 2nd game in 3 days after a 74-78 loss to Detroit as 10.5-point home favorites. The Eagles are just 4-3 this season and 1-4 ATS in their lined games. Their four wins have all come at home over Rochester (by 10), Drexel (by 4 as 13.5-point favorites), Goshen and Boston U. They were blown out in their two true road games at Duke (by 38 as 26-point dogs) and at Rutgers (by 27 as 7-point dogs). Those two efforts make be believe they aren’t capable of staying within 13 points of this motivated TCU squad.
EMU is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 road games vs. teams who average 16 or more assists per game. EMU is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The Horned Frogs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss. Bet TCU Monday.
|11-26-18||Rockets v. Wizards +2.5||131-135||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
15* Rockets/Wizards NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Washington +2.5
The Washington Wizards are starting to play up to their potential now that the trade rumors started swirling. They realize they are playing for their jobs now, and it’s finally nice to see them play to their capability.
The Wizards are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They beat the Clippers 125-118 at home as 1-point favorites and the Pelicans 124-114 at home as 3.5-point favorites. Their only loss came on the road at Toronto during this stretch. And they should not be home dogs to the Rockets here.
Houston is coming off back-to-back upset road losses at Detroit (by 5) as 3.5-point favorites and at Cleveland (by 9) as 6.5-point favorites. They have some serious injury issues right now with Chris Paul (leg) questionable and Gerald Green (ankle) questionable, and they still haven’t gotten a replacement for Carmelo Anthony. They just aren’t playing well at all right now at 9-9 on the season, and they are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA.
The Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the Wizards Monday.
|11-25-18||Miami-FL -5 v. Seton Hall||81-83||Loss||-103||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* Miami/Seton Hall ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami -5
Seton Hall is a team I had circled as one that I should fade all season when given the opportunity. That’s because they return just one starter this season and lose their three stars from last year in Khadeem Carrington, Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriquez, who combined for nearly 47 points per game last year.
That trio is irreplaceable. It’s clearly a rebuilding year for head coach Kevin Willard. That has been evident in two games for the Pirates this season. They lost 57-80 at Nebraska as 8-point underdogs, and lost outright as 6-point favorites in a 64-66 home loss to Saint Louis. I think the fact that they’ve won and covered their first two games of this Wooden Legacy Tournament has them overvalued, because wins over Grand Canyon and Hawaii are far from impressive.
Miami returned four players from last year that averaged at least 8.8 points per game each, and several other key reserves. It’s no surprise that the Hurricanes are off to a 5-0 start this season. And I think they should be bigger favorites tonight against this rebuilding Seton Hall squad.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Seton Hall) - a good team from last season that won 60% to 80% of their games playing a team that had a winning record, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Miami Sunday.
|11-25-18||Knicks +8.5 v. Grizzlies||103-98||Win||100||5 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +8.5
The New York Knicks are getting zero respect from oddsmakers and I’ll continue to back them until they do. They are catching 8.5 points here against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, which is simply too much.
The Knicks have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They only lost by 4 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Blazers, won outright by 8 as 14.5-point road dogs to the Celtics, and won outright by 5 as 7.5-point home dogs to the Pelicans. This team is better than the betting public realizes, and they should give the Grizzlies a run for their money tonight.
No question the Grizzlies have been undervalued up to this point. They have gone 12-6 SU & 12-6 ATS on the season. However, now they are being asked to lay a big number here, when usually they are in the role of the underdog. In fact, Memphis hasn’t been more than a 7.5-point favorite in any game this season. So this bar has been set too high here as 8.5-point favorites over the Knicks.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - off a win, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games when playing a team with a winning record are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Knicks Sunday.
|11-25-18||Dolphins +10 v. Colts||Top||24-27||Win||100||90 h 5 m||Show|
20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Dolphins +10
The Colts are getting way too much love this week. That’s because they have gone 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall coming in. Now the betting public is on them, and it’s time to ‘sell high’ here Sunday. They are coming off a 38-10 beat down of the Titans last week. I had the Colts in that game, and was fortunate Marcus Mariota got hurt. The rest was history. But I’ll gladly fade them this week as 10-point favorites over the Dolphins.
Indianapolis has only been favored by more than 3.5 points once this season, and that was as 7-point favorites against the Bills. And now they have to play a motivated, rested Dolphins team that is coming off their bye week at 5-5 and looking to make a playoff push. And the Dolphins get Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback this week, which is a big upgrade over Brock Osweiler.
The Dolphins opened 3-0 this season before back-to-back road losses to the Patriots and Bengals. Tannehill led them to that 3-2 start, and the Dolphins led the Bengals big before he got hurt. Speaking of injuries, the Colts suffered a big blow when they lost center Ryan Kelly to a knee injury against the Titans last week. Center is one of the most underrated positions in the NFL. Kelly is their best linemen, and the Colts have a couple other key injuries along the offensive line that will make life more difficult on Andrew Luck this week.
Plays on any team (Miami) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 23-27 PPG in the 2nd half of the season, after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983. The Colts should be closer to 3-point favorites than 10-point favorites this week. We’ll take the value on Miami. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||30-27||Loss||-119||87 h 41 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -3
I was on the Panthers last week as my free play, and it was probably a week early. They lost 19-20 to the Lions after going for a 2-point conversion to win the game in the closing seconds. To my credit, the Panthers outgained the Lions by 78 yards and probably should have won that game. But their road struggles continued and they lost.
But now the Panthers return home highly motivated for a victory after back-to-back road losses. This is a place of comfort for them as the Panthers are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring the opposition by 9.8 points per game in the process. They should get back on track at home here with a win and cover as only 3-point favorites over the Seahawks.
This is a bad matchup for Seattle. The Seahawks lead the league in rushing, but they are just 28th in passing offense, averaging only 196.8 passing yards per game. The weakness of Carolina is their pass D, but the Seahawks won’t be able to exploit it. Carolina ranks 7th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 98.5 rushing yards per game. They have the speed at linebacker with Luke Keuchly and company to stuff the read-option that Seattle likes to run.
Seattle is only 2-3 in true road games this season. One of those came 20-17 at Arizona, a terrible team and arguably the worst team in the NFL this season. The other was at Detroit the week they were coming off a bye, so they were primed for a big effort there. This is clearly a step up in class for the Seahawks, and I expect them to fail here Sunday.
The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite as the coach of Carolina. Rivera is also 22-4 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Panthers. Roll with the Panthers Sunday.
|11-25-18||Jaguars v. Bills +3.5||Top||21-24||Win||100||87 h 40 m||Show|
20* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo Bills +3.5
We’ve already found out that the Buffalo Bills are trying to win every game they play. That was evident last time out in a 41-10 win as 7-point road dogs over the New York Jets. And now they are coming off their bye week feeling good about themselves, so they’ll be rested and motivated for another win here against the Jaguars.
I certainly question Jacksonville’s motivation at this point. This is a team that made the AFC Championship Game last year, and now they sit at 3-7 off six consecutive losses. There are issues in the locker room that aren’t fixable. And they just blew a big lead in a 20-16 loss to the Steelers last week. I don’t like their state of mind coming into this game at Buffalo.
Now the Jaguars have to head to colder weather, which they aren’t used to. And they have to try and get back up off the mat to face a 3-7 Bills team. I just don’t think they will be motivated at all the rest of the way, especially this week in a hangover spot from that loss to the Steelers.
The Bills have the 2nd-best defense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. That matches up with their season-long stats as well. The Bills are 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 302.2 yards per game. They are also 2nd in yards per play (4.9) allowed. This is an elite defense, and one that will shut down this putrid Jacksonville offense.
The Bills get a big boost this week with rookie QB Josh Allen returning to the lineup from an elbow injury. They have been highly competitive with Allen this season, and pretty bad without him with the exception of that Jets came when Matt Barkley came in and gave them a spark. I think this offense will take another step forward this week with Allen having two full weeks to prepare for the Jaguars.
The Jaguars have a laundry list of injuries that has contributed to this six-game losing streak, and it’s not getting any better this week. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take the Bills Sunday.
|11-25-18||Raiders +11 v. Ravens||17-34||Loss||-110||87 h 40 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland Raiders +11
The Oakland Raiders showed last week they wouldn’t quit on the season when they went into Arizona and won 23-21 as 4.5-point underdogs. This line of Baltimore laying 11 points Sunday indicates that the Raiders have quit, but they obviously haven’t. I think there’s a ton of value on the Raiders catching double-digits points here this week.
Lamar Jackson led the Ravens to a 24-21 win over the Bengals last week. And Jackson will make another start in place of Joe Flacco. But now the Raiders have some game film on him they can use. And Jackson isn’t going to lead the Ravens to a ton of points simply because his style doesn’t suit it.
Jackson only threw fate ball 19 times last week for 138 yards against the Bengals. They rushed 54 times. They are going to implement a similar game plan here with a run-heavy scheme. And that will keep the clock moving and make it very predictable for the Raiders.
It also helps out the Raiders dramatically because they rank 32nd in the league in yards per pass attempt (8.9) allowed, which is their biggest weakness. The Raiders have at least been respectable against the run and should be able to limit the Ravens’ rushing attack this week.
The Ravens are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. There’s no way they should be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. They are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite, and they have been favored in six consecutive games. I’m confused at all the love for the Ravens at this point.
Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (Oakland) - off an upset win as a road underdog are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983. Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more yards. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Raiders Sunday.
|11-25-18||49ers +3.5 v. Bucs||9-27||Loss||-125||87 h 39 m||Show|
15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco 49ers +3.5
The Bucs can’t be trusted to be laying 3.5 points at home to the 49ers this week. They are 1-7 in their last eight games overall with their only win coming by exactly 3 points at home against the Browns. I think this is a game where the 49ers have an excellent chance to win outright.
The Bucs keep playing musical chairs at quarterback. Now they are going back to Jameis Winston this week. He has been worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick this season, but they aren’t giving up on him for whatever reason. Whoever is under center has turned the ball over at an alarming rate, and that won’t stop this week. The Bucs have 29 turnovers in their last nine games, averaging 3.2 turnovers per game. It’s simply too tough to win that way.
The Bucs also have a ton of injury issues coming into this game. They are missing four starters on defense in Lavonte David, Chris Conte, Kwon Alexander and Vernon Hargreaves. They have two DE starters questionable in Vinny Curry and Jason Pierre-Paul. They are without their stud tight end in OJ Howard, plus C Ryan Jensen and WR DeSean Jackson are questionable.
The 49ers are coming off their bye week, so they are as healthy as they have been since Week 1. That should have them primed for a big effort here against the hapless Bucs. And I like the fact that Nick Mullens is getting another start this week. Mullens is completing 70.5% of his passes for 512 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions in his two starts this season. Those are better numbers than both Jimmy G and C.J. Beathard have put up this season.
The 49ers have the numbers of a team that is much better than their 2-8 record would indicate, too. They are outgaining opponents by 13.1 yards per game this season. You’d expect them to be at least .500 with those numbers. And their defense has really stepped up the last two weeks, holding the Raiders to just 242 total yards and the Giants to just 277 total yards. They have given up 331 or fewer yards in four consecutive games now.
Tampa Bay is 1-12 ATS after going OVER the total in their previous game over the past two seasons. The 49ers are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games off an upset loss as a favorite. The Bucs are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|11-24-18||BYU +12 v. Utah||Top||27-35||Win||100||71 h 49 m||Show|
20* BYU/Utah FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on BYU +12
This is a very precarious spot for the Utah Utes. Even though it’s a rivalry game, I don’t expect them to be motivated at all. That’s because they have their big game on deck next week in the Pac-12 Championship against the Washington/Washington State Apple Cup winner. And if they win that game, they’ll go to the Rose Bowl.
I just don’t foresee the Utes being motivated at all to face BYU this week. And even if they were motivated, it would be tough for them to cover this 12-point spread because BYU simply doesn’t get blown out. I have no doubt the Cougars will want this game more, and I’ll gladly back the more motivated double-digit underdog in this matchup.
Utah lost its two best players on offense in a 20-38 loss to Arizona State. The Utes were able to win their next two games against Oregon and Colorado without those two players, but I think it catches up with them here. Those two players are QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss, who rushed for 1,092 yards and 11 touchdowns in the first nine games this season.
BYU has had a nice bounce-back season this year and they want to cap it off with an upset win over retire rivals. They are 6-5 this season, but three of those losses have come by 5 points or less. Like I said, this team just doesn’t get blown out. And I think they’ll hold their own in what is sure to be a defensive battle with a total set of only 44. I love taking double-digit dogs in expected defensive battles.
BYU is 6-0 ATS in November road games over the last three seasons. Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) - off a home win by 17 points or more against an opponent that’s off a double-digit road win are 37-14 (72.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take BYU Saturday.