|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-08-19||Texas Tech +1.5 v. Virginia||Top||77-85||Loss||-103||14 h 18 m||Show|
20* Texas Tech/Virginia Championship No-Brainer on Texas Tech +1.5
Wrong team favored here. The Virginia Cavaliers are lucky to be here. They needed four comeback wins in their five tournament games, including their opener against Gardner Webb.
They only beat Oregon by 4 as 8.5-point favorites, needed a buzzer-beater to send the Purdue game to OT, where they eventually won by 5. And they trailed by 4 with under 10 seconds to play against Auburn, yet somehow won that game after a Kyle Guy 3-pointer and another Guy 3 free throws with 0.6 seconds remaining to win by 1.
Their miracle run comes to an end tonight against a Texas Tech team that had been hands down the most dominant team in the tournament and deserves to be here. The Red Raiders are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five tournament games, winning four by double-digits with the only exception being their 6-point win over No. 1 seed Gonzaga.
While Virginia gets credit for its defense more than anyone, it’s actually Texas Tech that leads the country in defensive efficiency. They held Buffalo (58), Michigan (44) and Michigan State (51) to season lows in points in the tournament thus far. Virginia’s great defensive numbers are aided by the fact that they play at the slowest pace in the entire country.
This is a complete Red Raiders team with a star in Culver, four players in Moretti, Mooney, Edwards and Corprew who all shoot 38.8% or better from 3-point range, and three dogs on the inside in Owens, Francis and Odiase who handle all the dirty work and are the main reasons this team is so good on defense along with Culver.
Texas Tech is 14-1 SU & 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games overall. Chris Beard told his team that they were good enough to play on the final Monday of the season before the season started. They bought in, and he’s arguably the best coach in the country with what’s he’s done with this team in his three years here. Look for his players to deliver him a much-deserved title tonight. Bet Texas Tech Monday.
|04-06-19||Texas Tech +2.5 v. Michigan State||Top||61-51||Win||100||12 h 40 m||Show|
25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +2.5
Texas Tech’s last three wins have been mighty impressive. They held a high-powered Buffalo offense to just 58 points in a 20-point wins, then they held Michigan to just 44 points in a 19-point win, and they pulled away late to beat Gonzaga 75-69.
That win over Michigan can tell us a lot about how this game is going to play out as well. Keep in mind Michigan State needed three second-half comebacks to beat Michigan all three times they played this year. They were fortunate to win those three games, so that gives them a common opponent, and the Red Raiders blasted Michigan by 19.
In fact, Texas Tech and Michigan State have seven common opponents this season. Texas Tech is outscoring those teams by 9.1 points per game, while Michigan State is only outscoring them by 6.4 points per game. It’s a great way to compare teams.
Texas Tech just doesn’t have any weaknesses. They are arguably the best defensive team in the country, they have a star in Jarrett Culver who averages 18.9 points per game, they have four 3-point specialists who all shoot 38% or better. And they have unsung heroes inside in Tariq Owens and Norense Odiase who can bang with anyone.
Texas Tech is 13-1 SU & 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games overall. The Red Raiders are 6-0 in their last six Saturday games. Texas Tech is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Texas Tech Saturday.
|04-06-19||Auburn +6.5 v. Virginia||62-63||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
15* Auburn/Virginia Final Four ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +6.5 The Auburn Tigers have beaten Kansas, UNC and Kentucky in the last three rounds to get to the Final Four. I think it’s safe to say they are for real, even though they don’t get the credit they deserve. This team will go as far as electric guards Harper and Brown take them. And I don’t think their run is over just yet. It would be hard to feel good about laying this many points with Virginia. They beat Oregon by just 4 and Purdue by 5 in overtime after they got a miracle buzzer beater to force the extra session. They way they slow it down is conducive to close games. Auburn showed it could win in shootouts, shooting 52.5% in the 89-75 win over Kansas and 54.5% in the 97-80 win over UNC. But the Tigers also showed they could win the grind it out game, shooting just 40% in their 77-71 win over Kentucky last time out. Auburn is 12-0 SU in its last 12 games overall. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take Auburn Saturday.
|04-05-19||South Florida +1.5 v. DePaul||77-65||Win||100||8 h 37 m||Show|
15* South Florida/DePaul CBI No-Brainer on South Florida +1.5
The DePaul Blue Demons have been hit hard by injuries here down the stretch in this CBI Tournament Championship series with South Florida. They will be without both Eli Cain (13.1 PPG, 119 assists) and Devin Gage (8.8 PPG, 129 assists), their top two assist men. And they could be without Jaylen Butz (7.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), who is questionable.
South Florida was already the better team coming into this championship series. But now they are far and away the best team considering the Blue Demons have lost both Cain and Gage to injury. Look for the Bulls to win Game 3 tonight and take down the title.
DePaul is 1-8 ATS after having won three of its last four games this season. South Florida is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or PK this season. South Florida is 8-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this season. The Blue Demons are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with South Florida Friday.
|04-04-19||Lipscomb v. Texas -1.5||Top||66-81||Win||100||7 h 30 m||Show|
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -1.5
The Texas Longhorns have saved their best basketball of the season for the NIT. They have won four straight to get here, and their last two wins were really impressive. They beat Colorado by 13 as 5-point home favorites and then got revenge on TCU with a 14-point win as 1-point favorites.
Lipscomb is very fortunate to make it this far. They beat NC State on a buzzer-beater in the quarterfinals, then erased an 11-point deficit against Wichita State in the final seven minutes and won 71-64, closing that game on a 21-3 run. Give them credit for getting here, but their run stops here against a superior Texas team.
Texas is 7-0 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a favorite this season. Bet Texas Thursday.
|04-02-19||Wichita State v. Lipscomb||64-71||Loss||-105||9 h 36 m||Show|
15* Wichita State/Lipscomb NIT ANNIHILATOR on Wichita State PK
Nobody has faced a tougher path to get to the NIT semifinals than Wichita State. They’ve gone on the road and pulled off three outright upsets over Furman 76-70 as 4-point dogs, Clemson 63-55 as 7-point dogs and Indiana 73-63 as 3.5-point dogs.
Certainly Lipscomb’s run to the semifinals has been impressive as well, winning at Davidson, at UNC-Greensboro and at NC State. But their run stops here against the better team and the better coach in Wichita’s Greg Marshall.
Wichita State is 8-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The Shockers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Wichita State is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Wichita State Tuesday.
|04-01-19||DePaul v. South Florida -1.5||Top||61-63||Win||100||7 h 22 m||Show|
20* DePaul/South Florida CBI No-Brainer on South Florida -1.5
The South Florida Bulls have reached the Championship Round of the CBI Tournament to take on the DePaul Blue Demons in a Best of 3 series. This is a critical Game 1 for the Bulls, who know that their next two games will be at DePaul. They need to protect their home court.
The Bulls have done a very good job of protecting their home court all season. They are 17-5 at home, while Deal is just 3-8 in true road games. They have won their first three games of this CBI Tournament all at home over Stony Brook, Utah Valley State and Loyola-Marymount. They won by 9 each of the last two games.
DePaul hasn’t exactly been that impressive and the competition has been pretty weak in their three CBI games thus far. They beat Central Michigan by 14 in their opener, but only beat Longwood by 8 as 14.5-point favorites and Coastal Carolina by 5 as 8-point favorites.
The Blue Demons are 11-28-3 ATS in their last 42 games following a win. DePaul is 3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 Monday games. The Blue Demons are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Bulls are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games following a win. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with DePaul. Roll with South Florida Monday.
|03-31-19||Michigan State v. Duke -2||Top||68-67||Loss||-107||6 h 14 m||Show|
20* Michigan State/Duke Elite 8 No-Brainer on Duke -2
The Duke Blue Devils certainly feel like a team of destiny with the way they escaped with wins over UCF and Virginia Tech in the final seconds. They certainly won’t be phased if this one comes down to the wire, and I trust them to make the plays in the end.
Michigan State has had a very easy path to the Elite 8 with wins over Bradley, Minnesota and LSU. But now the Spartans meet their match finally in the Blue Devils, who were the favorites coming into the NCAA Tournament and the top overall seed. And it won’t help Michigan State not having Kyle Ahrens and now a banged-up Nick Ward, who suffered a hand injury against LSU.
Michigan State is 0-6 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in five straight games over the last two seasons. The Blue Devils are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Duke Sunday.
|03-31-19||Auburn +5 v. Kentucky||77-71||Win||100||3 h 29 m||Show|
15* Auburn/Kentucky Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +5
The Auburn Tigers are the hottest team in the NCAA Tournament, hands down. And yet they are catching points here against Kentucky when they shouldn’t be. The Tigers have won 11 straight coming in, and their last two victories were mighty impressive beating Kansas by 14 and North Carolina by 17 to prove they are for real.
Kentucky has been fortunate to get by Wofford and Houston in its last two games. Wofford’s best player went 0-for-12 from 3-point range, and the Wildcats only beat them by 6. Then Kentucky had to erase a 3-point deficit in the final minute and went on a 7-0 run to close to beat Houston by 4.
Adding to Auburn’s motivation is the fact that it lost both regular season meetings to Kentucky. But the Tigers have reeled off 11 straight wins since their last loss to the Wildcats and are a much different team than the one that lost those two games.
Auburn is 10-1 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS after a combined score of 175 points or more over the last two years. Take Auburn Sunday.
|03-30-19||Purdue v. Virginia -4||Top||75-80||Win||100||10 h 18 m||Show|
20* Purdue/Virginia Elite 8 No-Brainer on Virginia -4
The Purdue Boilermakers became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to make at least 16 3-pointers in two consecutive games. They went 16-of-30 against Villanova and 16-of-33 against Tennessee. I just can’t believe they can keep this hot shooting up for a 3rd consecutive games.
That’s especially the case considering they are up against one of the best defensive teams in the country in the Virginia Cavaliers in the Elite 8. The Cavaliers give up just 54.8 points per game and 38.1% shooting from the field, including 28.1% from 3-point range. And that’s playing in the rugged ACC. They’ll have an answer for Edwards, Kline and company in this one.
Virginia is 8-0 ATS in Saturday road games over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 10-1 ATS in road games after allowing 50 points or less over the last two seasons. Virginia is 44-20-1 ATS in its last 65 games overall. This is the year the Cavaliers finally get through to the Final Four. Bet Virginia Saturday.
|03-29-19||Virginia Tech +7 v. Duke||Top||73-75||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
20* Virginia Tech/Duke Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +7
Everyone is making a big deal about Zion Williams coming back from injury. And since he has, the Blue Devils have been grossly overvalued. They Blue Devils are just 1-4 ATS since he returned, and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. I think they’re getting too much respect here again tonight.
What’s getting overlooked is Virginia Tech getting its best player in Justin Robinson back from injury in time for the NCAA Tournament. Robinson (13.4 PPG, 5.0 APG) is their leader and floor general. With him in the lineup, the Hokies are capable of beating anyone in the country.
Virginia Tech beat Duke 77-72 as 3-point home dogs in their most recent meeting this season. I know Zion didn’t play, but Robinson was out for that game as well. And Duke is extremely fortunate to still be alive after beating UCF 77-76 after trailing by 3 with only a few seconds remaining. They got a 4-point possession, and UCF missed two shots at the buzzer that magically stayed out.
Duke is 2-11 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games this season. The Hokies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Friday games. The Blue Devils are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Duke is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games. Bet Virginia Tech Friday.
|03-28-19||Oregon +8.5 v. Virginia||49-53||Win||100||13 h 44 m||Show|
15* Oregon/Virginia Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon +8.5
The Oregon Ducks are the hottest team in the tournament and still getting no respect from oddsmakers today as 8.5-point underdogs to the Virginia Cavaliers. The Ducks are 10-0 SU & 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall with eight of their wins coming by double-digits.
Everyone should have known they were for real when they dispatched a very good Wisconsin team 72-54 as 2-point dogs. They followed it up with a 73-54 win over a good UC-Irvine team as 4.5-point favorites in the Round of 32. To be able to score over 70 points on those two very solid defensive teams bodes well for them against Virginia.
The Ducks have been defending the 3-point line very well, and Kenny Wooten has been a shock blocking machine inside. They will be able to slow down Virginia inside and out, and that will be the key in them covering this inflated 8.5-point spread tonight. They only give up 39.9% shooting on the season and 29.1% from 3-point range.
The Cavaliers may win this game, but if they do it will go down to the wire. They have consistently underachieved in the NCAA Tournament, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six tournament games. Take Oregon Thursday.
|03-28-19||Purdue v. Tennessee -1||Top||99-94||Loss||-115||10 h 39 m||Show|
20* Purdue/Tennessee Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Tennessee -1
I think we’re getting Tennessee at a great value Thursday. The Vols failed to cover the spread in each of their first two NCAA Tournament games. Because they didn’t cover when they easily could have, they are undervalued now.
The Vols held a double-digit lead over Colgate early but managed to win by just 7 as 17.5-point favorites. Then, they led Iowa by 25 but let the Hawkeyes come all the way back to tie the game and force overtime. They eventually won by 6 as 8-point favorites. They could have easily covered both games had they kept their foot on the gas.
Meanwhile, Purdue is overvalued after covering the spread in each of their first two tournament games. They won by 13 over Old Dominion as 12.5-point favorites, barely covering. And they’re really getting a lot of respect for beating Villanova by 26 as 3-point favorites. Nobody was beating Purdue that day as Carsen Edwards and company shot lights out and Villanova couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean.
I’m just not a big believer in Purdue because they rely too much on one player in Carsen Edwards to get their points. Tennessee is loaded with all five starters averaging double-digits scoring. Purdue won’t be able to beat them up inside like they do most opponents. Tennessee’s two best players are forwards Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield who combine to average over 35 points and 14 rebounds per game.
I actually like the fact that Tennessee is now battle-tested after having to stave off both Colgate and Iowa late. If this one comes down to the wire, I trust the Vols to make the necessary plays. The Vols are 13-1 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons. Bet Tennessee Thursday.
|03-26-19||Creighton v. TCU -3.5||58-71||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
15* Creighton/TCU NIT ANNIHILATOR on TCU -3.5
The TCU Horned Frogs are taking out their frustration from not making the NCAA Tournament on the rest of the NIT field. They have posted back-to-back blowout wins and covers over Sam Houston State by 13 as 12-point favorites and Nebraska by 16 as 4.5-point favorites.
Creighton has also handled its business at home, beating Loyola-Chicago by 9 and Memphis by 12. But the Bluejays now have to go on the road and face a Horned Frogs team that is 14-5 at home this season. It’s also a Horned Frogs team that can taste Madison Square Garden with another victory tonight, so they’ll continue to be max motivated.
Creighton only has four true road wins all season. The Horned Frogs are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. The Bluejays are 0-8 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six ATS over the last two seasons. TCU is 14-3 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the last three seasons. Roll with TCU Tuesday.
|03-25-19||Norfolk State +14.5 v. Colorado||60-76||Loss||-110||9 h 2 m||Show|
15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Norfolk State +14.5
Norfolk State has now won nine of its last 11 games with its two losses both coming by exactly 3 points. They should not be catching 14 points here against Colorado in the NIT. I expect the Spartans to give the Buffaloes a run for their money tonight.
Norfolk State proved what it was capable of with an 80-79 road win at Alabama as 16-point dogs in the opening round of the NIT. Meanwhile, Colorado struggled to get past Dayton 78-73 at home and was fortunate to cover the 4.5-point spread.
Colorado is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 tournament games. The Buffaloes are 5-15 ATS after having won six or seven of their last eight games over the last three seasons. Colorado is 20-36 ATS off a win over the last three seasons. Roll with Norfolk State Monday.
|03-24-19||Cal-Irvine +5 v. Oregon||54-73||Loss||-105||16 h 39 m||Show|
15* UC-Irvine/Oregon TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Irvine +5
The UC-Irvine Anteaters proved they were for real by beating Kansas State 70-64 outright as 4-point dogs. Now they further validate their 31-5 record this season by topping the red hot Oregon Ducks on Sunday in the Round of 32.
The Ducks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers at this point due to going 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall. But the bulk of their run came in eight games against weak Pac-12 completion. They did beat Wisconsin 72-54, but they went on a huge run to close that game and shot 54.9% as a team while Wisconsin shot 33.3%. Everything that could go right for them, did.
The Anteaters aren’t getting enough respect for their 17-game winning streak, and they know it. They will continue to thrive in the underdog role here Sunday. This is a UC-Irvine team that beat the likes of Texas A&M and St. Mary’s in true road games in the non-conference. They aren’t afraid of taking down big conference teams.
UC-Irvine is 10-1 ATS when the total is 129.5 or less this season. This is expected to be a low-scoring affair, so getting points with the dog is always good when that’s the case. Irvine is 7-0 ATS vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer FT per game after 15-plus games this season. The Anteaters are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Roll with UC-Irvine Sunday.
|03-24-19||Ohio State v. Houston -5.5||Top||59-74||Win||100||15 h 53 m||Show|
20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -5.5
I liked No. 6 seed Iowa State against Ohio State and lost. The Cyclones are 5.5-point favorites in that game, and they played their worst game of the season. Only 3 players showed up, and two of them were off the bench. It’s safe to say that if I liked Iowa State -5.5 against Ohio State, then I certainly like No. 3 seed Houston against the Buckeyes in the exact same price range as -5.5-point favorites.
The Cougars made easy work of Georgia State 84-55 in the Round of 64. That means they were able to rest their starters, which is a huge rest advantage over the Buckeyes, who were fighting tooth and nail to beat Iowa State until the closing seconds when the Cyclones missed a potential game-tying 3-pointer.
Houston also got to play the earlier game, so they have had a few extra hours to rest unlike Ohio State, which played the final game of the night in Tulsa. I always like backing teams in tournaments who got to play the early game and won in a blowout against teams that played the late game and were in a dog fight. The Cougars got a chance to watch Ohio State and scout them afterward.
Houston is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season. The Cougars remain undervalued because they lost outright to Cincinnati in the Big East title game. But you could see that coming from a mile away because they weren’t motivated after beating Cincinnati twice in the regular season. They are ‘all in’ now with their season on the line, and they will make easy work of the overmatched Buckeyes. Bet Houston Sunday.
|03-24-19||Buffalo +4 v. Texas Tech||58-78||Loss||-109||12 h 8 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo +4
The Buffalo Bulls own a 32-3 record identical to the Houston Cougars, who I also like Sunday. I’m backing the Bulls knowing that they kind of went through the motions in the regular season, and now they are putting both feet forward in the NCAA Tournament, living up to their potential.
That showed in a 91-74 win over Arizona State in their Round of 64 showdown. And now they take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who lost to West Virginia 74-79 in the Big 12 Tournament. This is a Red Raiders team that is getting a lot of respect for their run to the Elite 8 last season, but they lost almost everyone from that team.
Give Chris Beard credit for guiding this undermanned Texas Tech team to a share of the regular season Big 12 title. This is still a very good Red Raiders team, but they’re nowhere near as good as the team that made the Elite 8 last year. The only key player from that team is Jarrett Culver, and while he is having a monster season, he has to do too much on his own. Buffalo is a team that plays team basketball, and I’ll gladly take team basketball over one star any day of the week.
Buffalo is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 neutral court games with a total of 145 to 149.5. The Bulls are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. Buffalo is 20-6-2 ATS in its last 28 neutral site games. Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-conference games. Take Buffalo Sunday.
|03-24-19||Iowa v. Tennessee -7.5||Top||77-83||Loss||-108||6 h 8 m||Show|
20* Iowa/Tennessee CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -7.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes are getting a lot of love from oddsmakers after upsetting Cincinnati 79-72 in the Round of 64. It’s easy to forget that Iowa was getting dominated by 13 points in that game, but had a huge comeback win. I know because I had Cincinnati, and it was a bad beat.
That’s why I’ll fade Iowa today knowing that they can’t possibly hang with a team the caliber of Tennessee today. The Hawkeyes have gone 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall and were huge money burners prior to that win over Cincinnati. I believe it was an aberration, and not the norm.
Tennessee, on the other hand, failed to cover in a 77-70 win over Colgate. They jumped out to a huge double-digit lead before Colgate came back and made it interesting. And because they failed to cover as 17.5-point favorites, they are now undervalued.
Iowa is 0-6 ATS after a game with five or fewer offensive rebounds over the last two seasons. Tennessee is 16-4 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last three seasons. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games. Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five games off a win. The Vols are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten foes. Bet Tennessee Sunday.
|03-23-19||Auburn -2 v. Kansas||Top||89-75||Win||100||12 h 11 m||Show|
20* Auburn/Kansas CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Auburn -2
The Auburn Tigers have now won nine straight games. They are as hot as any team in the tournament. And I think the fact that they only won by a single point against New Mexico State has them undervalued in the Round of 32. They led that game by 13 late and the Aggies made a ferocious comeback in the final minutes, taking advantage of several Auburn turnovers. It was a bad beat for Auburn backers like myself.
The Jayhawks, conversely, are getting a lot of respect for their 34-point win over Northeastern. While impressive, we cannot quickly forget their 12-point loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship. And Northeastern isn’t nearly as good as New Mexico State.
The fact of the matter is Auburn is a much more talented team than Kansas right now in their current state. The Jayhawks are still missing two of their best players, while the Tigers are fully healthy and loaded under Bruce Pearl. The Tigers know this is their chance to do something special, and they won’t let Kansas stand in the way today.
Kansas is 0-7 ATS in all Saturday games played away from home this season. The Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS off a win by 15 points or more this season. Kansas is 0-6 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons. These three trends combine for a 19-0 system backing the Tigers. Bet Auburn Saturday.
|03-23-19||Minnesota +10.5 v. Michigan State||50-70||Loss||-104||10 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota +10.5
I was in my home town of Des Moines Thursday watching games all day at Wells Fargo Arena. I got to see Michigan State and Minnesota first-hand. And from my takeaways, I’m convinced Minnesota is catching too many points tonight.
First of all, it was essentially a home game for Minnesota as they had probably 3/4 of the fans in attendance. They crushed Louisville 86-76 in what was one of their most impressive performances of the season. That was a Top 25 Louisville team defensively, and the Gophers did whatever they wanted to, getting layup after layup and cashing in open 3-pointers time and time again.
I have been really impressed with Minnesota here down the stretch of the season. They beat Big Ten co-champ Purdue twice, topped what was a hot Penn State team, and also beat Louisville in four of their last six games. And now they’re up against a Michigan State team that I think they can be competitive with today due to being without both Joshua Langford and Kyle Ahrens, and Nick Ward clearly isn’t 100%.
I also watched Michigan State losing to Bradley for the majority of the game. That was a 55-55 game late before the Spartans pulled away for a misleading 76-65 victory. Bradley is not very good, and they had the Spartans on the ropes. Like they’ve done many times here down the stretch, the Spartans won the game in the last few minutes. And if they win today, it will be another nail biter against a Minnesota team playing its best basketball of the season.
Michigan State is 0-6 ATS after four straight games where opponent had 31 or fewer rebounds over the last two seasons. The Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games. Plus, the Spartans were actually outnumbered by Bradley fans, so it felt like a home game for Bradley too. This will 100% be a home game for the Gophers. Take Minnesota Saturday.
|03-22-19||St. Louis v. Virginia Tech -10||52-66||Win||100||50 h 50 m||Show|
15* Saint Louis/VA Tech TruTV Late-Night BAILOUT on Virginia Tech -10
Virginia Tech gets Justin Robinson back, their best player. They are the most dangerous 4-plus seed in the entire tournament now. Virginia Tech beat Duke late in the season, lost to Florida State in OT, and lost to Virginia by 6. They showed they could play with anyone down the stretch.
Virginia Tech is 10-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. They are winning by 17.5 points per game in this spot. The Hokies are 6-0 ATS in their last six Friday games. Virginia Tech is 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games. Roll with Virginia Tech Friday.
|03-22-19||Ohio State v. Iowa State -5.5||Top||62-59||Loss||-106||49 h 16 m||Show|
20* Ohio State/Iowa State TBS No-Brainer on Iowa State -5.5
Iowa State is fully healthy for basically the first time all season. And it was nice to see what they were capable of when fully healthy and focused in the Big 12 Tournament. They won their conference tournament by beating Baylor (by 17), Kansas State (by 4) and Kansas (by 12).
I think the Cyclones are one of the most talented teams in the country, and they are certainly under-seeded. I fully expect them to make a deep run. They have rabid fans that will travel the six hours to Tulsa, and if they make the Sweet 16, it’s only three hours from Ames to Kansas City, which is where the Big 12 Tournament was held.
Ohio State doesn’t even belong in the NCAA Tournament. The Buckeyes went just 19-14 this season nd struggled mightily down the stretch. They went just 3-7 SU & 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their three wins coming over Northwestern, Iowa and Indiana. They went 0-5 against NCAA Tournament teams not named Iowa during that stretch with all five losses coming by 6 points or more, and three by double-digits.
Ohio State is 0-6 ATS when playing with five or six days’ rest over the last two seasons. Iowa State is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three years. The Buckeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games. Ohio State is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Big 12 opponents. These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Cyclones. Take Iowa State Friday.
|03-22-19||Liberty v. Mississippi State -6||80-76||Loss||-110||47 h 7 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -6
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are on a roll to close the season. They are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall and their only losses came on the road to Auburn and Tennessee (twice).
Plays against an underdog (Liberty) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more, a top-level team (80% wins or more) playing a team with a winning record are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1997.
The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Friday games. Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in its last five NCAA Tournament games. The Bulldogs are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games off an ATS loss. Roll with Mississippi State Friday.
|03-22-19||Colgate v. Tennessee -17.5||70-77||Loss||-104||43 h 31 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Afternoon Line Mistake on Tennessee -17.5
Tennessee plays Colgate. Colgate has no chance of staying within 17.5 points of Tennessee. The Vols will roll by 20-plus in this showdown.
The Vols are highly motivated following a bad loss to Auburn in the SEC Tournament. Colgate lost to New Jersey Tech in the non-conference, and they lost to Syracuse by 21 on the road and South Florida by 10 on the road. They also lost by double-digits on the road to Penn State and Pitt, while also losing to Navy on the road.
Tennessee is 8-1 ATS after a a game with 5 or less offensive over the last 3 seasons. The Vols are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following double-digit loss. Bet the Vols Friday.
|03-22-19||Iowa v. Cincinnati -3||Top||79-72||Loss||-109||40 h 46 m||Show|
25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati -3
This is my favorite play of any of the Round of 64 games. This is also the first game on the board Friday, so start your day a winner. I really think Cincinnati is under-seeded getting a #7 seed. They went 28-6 this season in what turned out to be a loaded American Athletic Conference.
Four teams made the NCAA Tournament from the AAC in Cincinnati, Houston, UCF and Temple. And the Bearcats got their revenge from two regular season losses to Houston with an impressive 69-57 win over the Cougars in the AAC title game.
There’s probably not a player in the tournament I trust more with the game on the line than Cincinnati’s Jarron Cumberland. He averages nearly 19 PPG and can get his own shot whenever he wants. But this is a deep Bearcats team with six players averaging at least 8 PPG.
One of my favorite things about this game is that the committee basically made up for under-seeding the Bearcats by basically giving them a home game. This game will be played in Columbus, Ohio, which is just a 90-minute drive from Cincinnati’s campus.
They’ll be up against an Iowa team that really faded down the stretch, which is become a common theme for them in the Fran McCaffery era. The Hawkeyes are just 4-6 SU & 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Their only four wins came against Northwestern, Rutgers, Indiana & Illinois, which are four of the worst teams in the Big Ten.
The Hawkeyes needed buzzer beaters to beat both Northwestern and Rutgers, and they needed a late 3-pointer to force overtime against Indiana at home, where they eventually won. They were blasted by 21 points by Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament.
Cincinnati is a team that plays similar to the way Michigan does. They are a physical team that slows down the tempo, always looking for the best shot, and they’ll make Iowa play defense for 30 seconds. The Hawkeyes don’t play much defense.
Iowa is better against teams that want to run with them, and Cincinnati does not fit the bill. The Hawkeyes have been terrible against teams that slow it down and control the tempo. And that’s how I see this game playing out. I also don’t expect Iowa fans to travel that well because they have lost faith in this team down the stretch.
Iowa is 3-14 ATS in road games off a loss over the last three seasons. The Hawkeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight eight NCAA Tournament games. I think Cincinnati is by far the superior team, and with home-court advantage, this is a very short number to have to lay with them. Bet Cincinnati Friday.
|03-21-19||Montana v. Michigan -14.5||55-74||Win||100||25 h 18 m||Show|
15* Montana/Michigan TNT No-Brainer on Michigan -14.5
Montana is a popular underdog, but they shouldn’t be. This line has been bet from 16 down to 15 and 14.5 even in some places. I think the value is there to pull the trigger on the Michigan Wolverines in this one.
Montana is 137th in the Kenpom rankings and played the 301st-toughest schedule in the country. Michigan is 5th in the Kenpom rankings and played the 19th-toughest schedule.
When Montana took a step up in class in the non-conference, they lost badly. Their two toughest opponents in the non-conference were Creighton and Arizona, two teams that didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament. Well, they lost by 26 to Creighton and by 19 to Arizona. Michigan is far and away the toughest team that the Grizzlies will have faced, and that’s why they should be able to cover 15 here.
Michigan is 9-1 ATS off a conference loss over the last two seasons. The Wolverines are 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last two seasons. Michigan is 11-1 ATS in all games following a loss over the last two years. The Wolverines are 40-19-4 ATS in their last 63 neutral site games. Travis DeCuire is 7-17 ATS in all tournament games as the coach of Montana. The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. Montana is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Michigan Thursday.
|03-21-19||Seton Hall v. Wofford -2.5||68-84||Win||100||25 h 10 m||Show|
15* Seton Hall/Wofford CBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Wofford -2.5
Wofford is 29-4 and ranked in the Top 20 for good reason. They are also 21st in the Kenpom rankings, well ahead of Seton Hall in 56th. They Terriers are favored for a reason here, and they should be bigger favorites to boot.
Wofford played one of the tougher non-conference schedules of all the mid majors, checking in at 121st in strength of schedule. Their four losses this season came to UNC, Oklahoma, Kansas and Mississippi State, which are four NCAA Tournament teams. They also won at South Carolina by 20, and beat UNC-Greensboro three times by 29, 30 and 12 points, and that’s a Greensboro team that was on the bubble.
It’s time to ’sell high’ on Seton Hall, which won four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS to punch its ticket into the Big Dance. This is a Pirates team that is way too reliant on one player in Myles Powell, who averages 22.9 PPG. They only have one other double-digit scorer, and that’s Myles Cale at 10.3 PPG. Wofford has a deadly trio that all average 13.2 PPG or more, led by Fletcher Magee (20.5 PPG).
Wofford is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games overall. The Terriers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pirates are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. Take Wofford Thursday.
|03-21-19||Murray State v. Marquette -3||83-64||Loss||-117||20 h 26 m||Show|
15* Murray State/Marquette TBS ANNIHILATOR on Marquette -3
There’s just too much love for JA Morant and the Murray State Racers in this one. They are a very popular underdog pick because they won their conference tournament and beat Belmont in the title game. As a result, this line has been bet from 4.5 down to 3.5 and even 3 in some spots.
I think it’s time to ’sell high’ on Murray State and ‘buy low’ on Marquette, which the betting public wants nothing to do with after losing five of their final six games of the season. But all five losses came by single-digits as they finally had some bad luck in close games after having a lot of good luck in close games prior to that. This is still a 24-9 Golden Eagles team and arguably the best team in the Big East.
Murray State did not impress me at all in non-conference. They lost the two toughest games they played to Alabama and Auburn, and I would argue that Marquette will be the best team they have faced yet, if it’s not Auburn. The Racers played the 272nd toughest schedule in the country, while Marquette played the 57th.
Marquette is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better after 15-plus games this season. The Golden Eagles are 13-3 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread over the last three seasons. They are winning by 14.4 points per game in this spot. The Golden Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Roll with Marquette Thursday.
|03-21-19||New Mexico State v. Auburn -5.5||Top||77-78||Loss||-105||17 h 1 m||Show|
20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Auburn -5.5
There’s just way too much love for New Mexico State in this game. The Aggies’ 30-4 record looks great, and that’s why the public is jumping all over them, pushing this line down from 7 to 5.5. It’s a complete mistake.
Auburn is 18th in the NET rankings, while New Mexico State is 40th. The Aggies are getting docked because they played the 244th-ranked schedule in the country. Auburn played the 24th-toughest. Auburn is 13th in the Kenpom rankings while New Mexico State is 53rd.
When the Aggies stepped up in class in the non-conference, they lost. They lost to St. Mary’s, Kansas, and Drake. They also lost to Cal Baptist. Their best wins came against Washington State twice, and the Cougars were one of the worst teams in the Pac-12.
Auburn comes in playing its best basketball of the season. The Tigers have won eight straight coming in, including two victories over Tennessee, and wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams Mississippi State and Florida. This is going to be a huge talent mismatch in their favor, and I’m not worried at all about them having a letdown from winning the SEC Tournament.
New Mexico State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven as a neutral court dog of 3.5 to 6 points. It is losing by 12.4 points per game on average in this spot. The Aggies are 1-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. The Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games. Take Auburn Thursday.
|03-21-19||Minnesota v. Louisville -5||Top||86-76||Loss||-105||16 h 47 m||Show|
20* Minnesota/Louisville CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -5
The Louisville Cardinals are a team I expect to make a deep run in the tournament with wins over Minnesota and Michigan State to start it off. There’s a reason behind my theory that this team is much better than its record would indicate.
The Cardinals beat UNC by 21 on the road, blew a 20-point lead at home to Duke, and played Virginia tough twice. They also already beat Michigan State in the non-conference and beat VA Tech on the road. If they can play with and beat all of those teams, then they are capable of beating anyone in the country. They should make easy work of Minnesota Thursday.
The Golden Gophers really struggled when they stepped up in class this year. I mean, Minnesota is 61st in the NET rankings, while Louisville is 22nd. They went just 5-9 against NCAA Tournament teams, including their 49-76 laugher against Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament.
Minnesota ranks toward the bottom of college basketball in all major offensive statistical categories. They shoot just 43.7% as a team, including 32.1% from 3-point range while averaging just 5 made 3-pointers per game. That’s why they cannot be trusted because they go on too many scoring draughts.
The Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in its last four non-conference games. Louisville is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss. The Cardinals are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Louisville Thursday.
|03-20-19||Arizona State v. St. John's +2.5||74-65||Loss||-104||12 h 54 m||Show|
15* ASU/St. John’s First Four ANNIHILATOR on St. John’s +2.5
I really like the talent on this St. John’s team. And I think they should be favored over Arizona State in this non-conference First Four showdown. The Pac-12 was terrible this season, and I just don’t trust the Sun Devils, especially with some of the losses they had in non-conference.
Arizona State lost by 16 at Vanderbilt, and Vanderbilt didn’t win a single SEC game this season. They also lost to Princeton and had a rather disappointing conference schedule, including their 21-point home loss to Washington State as 15.5-point favorites.
St. John’s has been battling injuries here down the stretch, which helps explain their skid to end the season. But now they are fully healthy and ready for the NCAA Tournament. Led by Shamorie Ponds (19.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG), Mustapha Heron (14.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG and Li Figueroa (14.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG), the Johnnies have a potent trio that can match up with anyone in the country. Not to mention, both Marvin Clark II (10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Justin Simon (10.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) both average double-digits as well.
St. John’s is 11-2 ATS after having lost five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons. The Red Storm are 32-12 ATS in their last 44 road games off a loss by 15 points or more. The Sun Devils are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big East opponents. Roll with St. John’s Wednesday.
|03-20-19||Norfolk State +16 v. Alabama||80-79||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Norfolk State +16
Alabama has high hopes of making the NCAA Tournament down the stretch. But they went just 1-4 in their final five games and missed out. Now, they have to ’settle’ for the NIT, and I just don’t think they were happy to be here. That’s going to make it very difficult for them to cover this huge 16-point spread Wednesday night.
Norfolk State is happy to be here. It’s a Norfolk team that is 21-13 on the season, including 16-3 in their last 19 games overall with their three losses coming by 3, 3 and 8 points. They covered in road losses to Michigan and South Carolina earlier this season, and they are certainly capable of hanging with Alabama.
Plays against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Alabama) in a game involving two average defensive teams that give up 67-74 PPG, after 15-plus games, after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997.
Alabama is 2-9 ATS after failing to cover three of its last four games this season. The Crimson Tide are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Alabama is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games. Take Norfolk State Wednesday.
|03-19-19||Belmont v. Temple +3.5||Top||81-70||Loss||-110||8 h 18 m||Show|
20* Belmont/Temple First Four No-Brainer on Temple +3.5
It’s the final season for Fran Dunphy at Temple. He got the Owls to the big dance, and he doesn’t want his run to end this soon. Look for this veteran Owls team to ‘win one for the gipper’ tonight. They went 23-9 this season with eight of their nine losses coming by 10 points or less, so they were competitive in every game they played this season other than one.
Dunphy will be making his 17th NCAA Tournament appearance. He has nine at Penn and eight at Temple to tie former Owls coach John Chaney for the most by a Big 5 coach. And it has already been a special season for the Owls as they’ve gone 9-2 in games decided by 5 points or less, including 4-0 in overtime contest. In what I expect to be a close game, the Owls will make the play down the stretch to get it done.
Belmont is a nice story getting an at-large berth after losing to JA Morant and Murray State 65-77 in the Ohio Valley Championship Game. However, this team just doesn’t have many big wins at all in non-conference. Their best win came at UCLA, and the Bruins are way down this season. Four of their five losses came by double-digits to Purdue, Jacksonville State (twice) and Murray State. They also lost by 8 at Wisconsin-Green Bay.
Temple is 8-0 ATS in road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or more of their attempts over the last two seasons. The Owls are 8-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last two years. The Owls defend the 3-ball well, giving up just 32.7% on the season, which will be a key to victory for them here against a Belmont team that shoots 28 3-pointers per game. Bet Temple Tuesday.
|03-19-19||Arkansas v. Providence -6||84-72||Loss||-109||8 h 3 m||Show|
15* NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Providence -6
Arkansas’ best player in Daniel Gafford has decided to skip the NIT to prepare for the NBA Draft. That’s a huge blow for the Razorbacks as Gafford leads the team in scoring (16.9 PPG), rebounding (8.7 RPG) and blocked shots (2.0 BPG). They will really miss his presence inside.
Not having Gafford makes this a great matchup for a Providence team that doesn’t rely too much on the 3-pointer to win games. They like to get inside and pound opponents, and they should be able to have their way with the Razorbacks inside now.
Arkansas is 2-9 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last two seasons. The Razorbacks are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games off an ATS loss. Arkansas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big East opponents. The Friars are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Take Providence Tuesday.
|03-17-19||Michigan +1 v. Michigan State||Top||60-65||Loss||-109||15 h 36 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan +1
I love the situation for the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten Championship. They are playing with double-revenge after losing both regular season meetings to the hated rival Spartans.
The Wolverines blew a big lead in the first half and lost 63-75 at Michigan State in the regular season finale, which handed the Spartans the regular season title. And now they could at least feel good about winning the Big Ten Tournament, and it would be sweet revenge.
I also like the fact that the Wolverines made easy work of Minnesota yesterday in a dominant 76-49 win. That allowed them to clear the bench early as most of their starters averaged under 30 minutes. They’ll be as fresh as possible for the championship game now.
The Wolverines are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Michigan is 40-18-4 ATS in its last 62 neutral site games. The Wolverines are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games. The Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. Take Michigan Sunday.
|03-17-19||Auburn v. Tennessee -4.5||84-64||Loss||-109||12 h 1 m||Show|
15* Auburn/Tennessee SEC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -4.5
I like the spot for the Tennessee Vols, who have certainly proven their meddle with wins over Mississippi State and Kentucky to make the SEC Championship Game. Those are two much stronger opponents than what Auburn has faced.
Yet, Auburn found themselves tied with South Carolina and needed to pull away late in the quarterfinals. And the Tigers barely survived in a 65-62 win over Florida yesterday. They also only beat Missouri by 10 in their opener. I’ve been much more impressed with Tennessee than Auburn in the SEC Tournament.
Now, Tennessee has a shot a quick revenge after losing 80-84 at Auburn in the regular season finale on March 9th. They get a shot at revenge just a week later, and I fully expect them to get it with a win and cover in the title game. Roll with Tennessee Sunday.
|03-16-19||Florida State +8.5 v. Duke||Top||63-73||Loss||-110||10 h 9 m||Show|
25* ACC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State +8.5
The Florida State Seminoles are one of the most underrated teams in the country. I picked them to win the ACC Tournament coming in, and I’m certainly sticking with them here as 8.5-point dogs to the Duke Blue Devils in the Championship Game.
The Seminoles are now 14-1 in their last 15 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to UNC. They upset Virginia Tech in the quarterfinals and then pulled off an even more impressive 10-point upset win over Virginia as 8.5-point dogs.
Now, they face a Duke team that is coming off a huge win over UNC in the closing seconds. I like the fact that FSU got to play the early game and then watch the Blue Devils in the late game. They will have scouted them well and will be the more ready team for this matchup.
Few teams in the country have the length that FSU does, and that’s why they matchup well with the Blue Devils. They also have one of the deepest teams in the country, so they can handle three games in three days better than Duke, which plays its starters almost exclusively. And there’s no doubt the Seminoles want revenge after losing at the buzzer to Duke 78-80 in their lone meeting this season. Florida State is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Duke is 2-8 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game this season. The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus boards more than their opponents after 15-plus games this season. The Seminoles are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Bet Florida State Saturday.
|03-16-19||Iowa State +2.5 v. Kansas||78-66||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5
It’s nice to see Iowa State play to their full potential now that they’ve entered the postseason basically fully healthy. And when they are locked in, they can beat anyone in the country. They beat Baylor by 17 and then topped Kansas State yesterday.
I like the fact that Iowa State played the early game yesterday and got to scout Kansas after. And I also like the fact that the Jayhawks are very beatable due to all their injuries. And they possibly suffered another blow yesterday as Quintin Grimes, who had 18 points and 5 made 3-pointers yesterday, left the WVU game with a knee injury and won’t be 100% even if he plays.
Iowa State showed well against Kansas in their two meetings this season. The Cyclones won by 17 at home and only lost by 4 on the road as 5-point dogs. Iowa State has won 3 of the last 5 Big 12 Tournaments, and I think they make it 4 out of 6 as the Jayhawks won’t have home-court advantage. Iowa State fans travel incredibly as it’s just a three-hour drive to Kansas City from Ames. Don’t be surprised if this feels like a home game for them tonight with the crowd in their favor.
The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Jayhawks. Their domination of this team continues today as the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Roll with Iowa State Saturday.
|03-15-19||Duke -3 v. North Carolina||74-73||Loss||-109||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* Duke/UNC ACC No-Brainer on Duke -3
Duke is going to be highly motivated today. They lost both regular season meetings with the rival Tar Heels. Now, they want revenge in a big way.
And they should get it now that they have their best player back in Zion Williamson, who showed no ill-effects of the injury yesterday, scoring 29 points on 13-of-13 shooting and grabbing 14 rebounds in a 12-point win over Syracuse.
It’s revenge time today folks. Take Duke Friday.
|03-15-19||Iowa State -2 v. Kansas State||Top||63-59||Win||100||7 h 59 m||Show|
25* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -2
The Iowa State Cyclones are the most talented team in the Big 12, period. And they entered the Big 12 Tournament way undervalued due to losing their final three games of the regular season.
But a big reason for their struggles late were injuries and suspensions. Now, the Cyclones are fully healthy and locked in and focused now that postseason play has arrived. They showed their potential in a 83-66 beat down of Baylor yesterday, and now they’ll continue their strong play against Kansas State today.
The Wildcats had a great season earning a share of the Big 12 title. But they aren’t the same team they were in the regular season. They needed a big comeback win to beat TCU yesterday, and they’re without their most important player in senior Dean Wade. He means everything to this team, and without him they aren’t going to beat a team that caliber of the Cyclones.
Iowa State beat Kansas State by 14 on the road in their most recent meeting this season, and blew a double-digit lead and lost at the buzzer in their first meeting at home. The Cyclones have won 3 of the last 5 Big 12 Tournaments, and a big reason for it is because they bring such a huge following from Ames, which is just a three-hour drive to Kansas City.
Iowa State is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or PK. Bet Iowa State Friday.
|03-15-19||Auburn v. South Carolina +8||73-64||Loss||-108||4 h 30 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina +8
The South Carolina Gamecocks were one of the most underrated teams in the SEC this season. They had a bad non-conference, but rebounded to go 11-7 in SEC play and actually earned the No. 4 seed and a double-bye. That’s huge, and it means they haven’t played yet in the tournament, so they’re rested and ready to go.
Auburn also finished 11-7 in SEC play, but the Gamecocks won the tiebreaker due to beating Auburn 80-77 at home in their lone meeting. That also means Auburn had to play yesterday, and it certainly wasn’t easy as they beat Missouri by 10.
The Tigers won’t have much left in the tank for the Gamecocks, and given SC’s rest advantage, they should not be laying 8 points in this matchup. It’s also worth noting that SC gets 2nd-leading scorer AJ Lawson back from injury in time for the tournament, and that’s not even being factored into the line at all. He’s huge for this team.
The Gamecocks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 SEC games, which just shows how undervalued they’ve been. The Gamecocks are also 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Tigers. The underdog is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Take South Carolina Friday.
|03-15-19||Nebraska v. Wisconsin -7.5||Top||62-66||Loss||-110||3 h 15 m||Show|
25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin -7.5
This one is as simply as it gets folks. Wisconsin received a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament by earning the No. 4 seed. So the Badgers are rested and ready to go.
Meanwhile, Nebraska has had to play two hard-fought games the last two days, beating Rutgers 68-61 Wednesday and Maryland 69-61 Thursday. The Huskers won’t have anything left in the tank today, especially since they are dealing with injuries and are short-handed.
The Badgers won their lone meeting with Nebraska 62-51 on the road. Now they’re only laying 7.5 here on a neutral in a great spot. Bet Wisconsin Friday.
|03-14-19||St. John's v. Marquette -2||Top||54-86||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
20* St. John’s/Marquette Big East No-Brainer on Marquette -2
I think it’s a great time to ‘buy low’ on Marquette, which lost four straight games to close the season. Now the Golden Eagles are only laying 2 points here to St. John’s when they should be more heavily favored.
Plus, the Golden Eagles are rested while the Red Storm had to play yesterday in a tough 82-74 win over DePaul. I’ll gladly back the more rested, better team laying a short number here in this Big East showdown.
Adding to Marquette’s motivation is the fact that it lost both meetings with St. John’s this season. So off four straight losses, and with double-revenge, the Golden Eagles couldn’t possibly be more motivated than they are today.
Marquette is 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 33 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons. St. John’s is 3-12 ATS in neutral site games over the last three seasons. The Golden Eagles are 29-12 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite since 1997. Take Marquette Thursday.
|03-14-19||Colorado v. Oregon State||Top||73-58||Loss||-109||7 h 57 m||Show|
25* Pac-12 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon State PK
Oregon State had yesterday off while Colorado struggled to beat lowly California 56-51 yesterday. So the Beavers have the rest advantage, and they should be favored against Colorado because of it.
After all, Oregon State already beat Colorado 76-74 on the road in their first and only meeting this season. And this is a veteran Beavers team that I really like, especially their trio of Tinkle and the Thompson brothers who combine to average nearly 51 points per game.
Colorado is 1-8 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days. The Buffaloes are 0-7 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons. Colorado is 1-11 ATS in road games off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. Oregon State is 8-1 ATS in conference road games this season, playing its best basketball on the highway. Bet Oregon State Thursday.
|03-14-19||Nebraska v. Maryland -5.5||69-61||Loss||-105||5 h 36 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Maryland -5.5
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are just 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Their poor run started after Isaac Copeland (14.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG) suffered a season-ending injury. And now the injury situation has only gotten worse for the Huskers.
They are also without both Thomas Allen (8.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG), Nana Akenten (4.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG) and Amir Harris (2.2 PPG, 2.5 RPG). So they are now down two starters and two of their first players off the bench.
The Huskers managed to overcome these injuries to beat lowly Rutgers yesterday, but they won’t be so fortunate today. They’ll now be paying for a 2nd consecutive day, and that’s really tough for a team like them that is lacking any depth. Maryland should take advantage and put the Huskers out of their misery.
Maryland beat Nebraska 60-45 on the road in their most recent meeting. The Terrapins are talented enough to make a deep run in this tournament, and it starts with a win and cover against the Huskers today. Roll with Maryland Thursday.
|03-14-19||Virginia Tech v. Florida State +1.5||63-65||Win||100||4 h 19 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State +1.5
The Florida State Seminoles earned a double-bye with the No. 4 seed in the ACC. That’s a huge advantage for them, and one that will come into play in a big way today to give them the edge they need to beat Virginia Tech.
The Hokies had to play yesterday and beat Miami 71-56. They were forced to play their starters significant minutes because the Hurricanes won the second half. And I don’t expect them to have much left in the tank, especially since they’re already short-handed without Justin Robinson and Chris Clark.
Florida State beat Virginia Tech 73-64 as 5-point favorites in their lone meeting this season. And now they’re underdogs despite having such a huge rest advantage? Give me a break.
The Seminoles are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to UNC. And they just have to win this game straight up to cover. That won’t be a problem. Bet Florida State Thursday.
|03-13-19||Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -7||59-73||Win||100||12 h 35 m||Show|
15* Pitt/Syracuse ACC Late-Night BAILOUT on Syracuse -7
The Syracuse Orange had yesterday off while the Pitt Panthers had to play Boston College, beating them 80-70 in a shootout. I’ll gladly back the more rested, better team tonight in the Orange laying only 7 points to the pitiful Panthers. It’s also tough to prepare for this Syracuse zone on zero days’ rest, which is a hidden advantage for them.
Pittsburgh went just 4-15 SU & 5-13-1 ATS in ACC play this season. I think they’re starting to get some respect after winning their last two games after previously going 0-13 SU & 0-12-1 ATS in their last 13 games prior. But those two wins came against Notre Dame and BC, two of the worst teams in the ACC.
I also think we are ‘buying low’ on Syracuse, which lost four of its final five games of the regular season and now certainly comes into the ACC Tournament undervalued. They also come in with a chip on their shoulder. Those four losses came to Duke, UNC, Virginia and Clemson on the road, so they were forgivable considering they were dogs in all four.
Pitt is 1-8 ATS revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points this season. The Orange beat the Panthers by 11 at home and by 9 on the road in their two meetings this season. Syracuse is 7-1 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more this season. The Orange are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who average 12 or fewer assists per game this season. They are beating these teams by 22.2 points per game on average. The Panthers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. Take Syracuse Wednesday.
|03-13-19||Notre Dame v. Louisville -7.5||Top||53-75||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Louisville -7.5
The Louisville Cardinals are just the type of team that could make a run in the ACC Tournament. They have nearly beaten both Duke and Virginia this season, losing to those two by a combined 6 points, and they also beat UNC on the road. This is the scariest team in the ACC that doesn’t get a double-bye.
I look for the Cardinals to make easy work of Notre Dame Wednesday night. They had yesterday off, while Notre Dame played in a hard-fought 78-71 win over Georgia Tech yesterday. I’ll gladly back the rested, better team only laying 7.5 points in this matchup.
Notre Dame has a laundry list of injuries right now that have really given them no depth. They are missing 3rd-leading scorer D.J. Harvey (10.7 PPG), 5th-leading scorer Rex Pflueger (8.1 PPG) and could be without Nate Laszewiski (7.1 PPG), who is questionable. They just don’t stand much of a chance of even being competitive against the Cardinals tonight.
Louisville beat Notre Dame by 14 in their lone meeting this season. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last three seasons. The Fighting Irish are 1-11 ATS after going over the total in their previous game this season. The Cardinals are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a losing record, including 6-0 ATS in their last six tries. The Fighting Irish are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games off an ATS win. Bet Louisville Wednesday.
|03-13-19||Nebraska v. Rutgers +2.5||68-61||Loss||-104||9 h 49 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +2.5
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are just 3-11 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall. This poor run started after Isaac Copeland (14.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG) suffered a season-ending injury. And now the injury situation has only gotten worse for them heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
The Huskers are also expected to be without Thomas Allen (8.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG), Nana Akenten (4.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG) and Amir Harris (2.2 PPG, 2.5 RPG). So they are now down two starters and two of their first players off the bench. They’re in a world of hurt right now heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
Rutgers has been one of the most underrated teams in the country here down the stretch. The Scarlet Knights have gone 6-7 SU & 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games to close the season. That includes a 76-69 home win over Nebraska.
The Scarlet Knights are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Rutgers is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games. Nebraska is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games. Roll with Rutgers Wednesday.
|03-13-19||Miami-FL v. Virginia Tech -7||56-71||Win||100||5 h 50 m||Show|
15* Miami/VA Tech ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech -7
The Virginia Tech Hokies have the advantage of having yesterday off while Miami beat Wake Forest 79-71 yesterday. I’ll gladly back the rested Hokies in this matchup to cover this 7-point spread Wednesday afternoon.
After all, Virginia Tech has already crushed Miami twice this season. They beat the Hurricanes by 12 on the road and by 14 at home, covering the spread in both games. And now they are only laying 7 points in their 3rd meeting this season.
Miami is 0-7 ATS when playing its 2nd road game in 3 days over the last three seasons. Virginia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its lsat 10 games as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The Hurricanes are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games off a win. The Hokies are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Virginia Tech Wednesday.
|03-11-19||San Diego v. St. Mary's -4.5||62-69||Win||100||11 h 60 m||Show|
15* San Diego/St. Mary’s WCC Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Mary’s -4.5
The St. Mary’s Gaels got a bye into the semifinals of the WCC Tournament due to earning the No. 2 seed. That’s such a huge advantage for them in this conference, just as it is for Gonzaga.
While St. Mary’s has been off since March 2nd, San Diego has had to win three games in the last three days just to get to the semifinals. The Toreros will now be playing their 4th game in 5 days and won’t have anything left in the tank for the Gaels tonight.
Not to mention, St. Mary’s owns this team. St. Mary’s won by 17 as 9.5-point home favorites and by 20 as 2.5-point road favorites in their two meetings with San Diego this season. The Gaels are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
And this is a Gaels team that will still be highly motivated because they are a bubble team in the NCAA Tournament, so they certainly have to win this game to have any chance to get in. Given their situational advantage, they should post their third blowout victory of the season over the Toreros tonight. Roll with St. Mary’s Monday.
|03-11-19||Pepperdine v. Gonzaga -23.5||Top||74-100||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
25* WCC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga -23.5
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are have a huge situational advantage over the Pepperdine Waves in the WCC Tournament semifinals. That’s why I’m willing to lay this big number with them in a game that should be over by halftime.
Because Gonzaga got the No. 1 seed, they got a bye into the semifinals. Meanwhile, Pepperdine has already had to play three games in three days, and the Waves will now be playing their 4th game in 5 days. I just don’t see them having much left in the tank, which is going to make it difficult for them to even make a game out of this.
In their first and only meeting this season, the Bulldogs beat the Waves 92-64 at home as 29-point favorites. They were up 20 at halftime and coasted in the 2nd half. They won’t be coasting tonight as they’ll be chomping at the bit to hit the court after last playing on March 2nd.
Plays against any team (Pepperdine) - in any tournament semifinal game, with a winning percentage between 40% and 49% on the season playing a winning team are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Gonzaga is 19-11 ATS in all games this season. The Bulldogs are 14-3 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season. The Bulldogs are 27-10-3 ATS in the last 40 meetings. Bet Gonzaga Monday.
|03-10-19||SMU v. South Florida -2||77-71||Loss||-105||6 h 26 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -2
The South Florida Bulls have been one of the best surprise stories in college basketball this season. Not much was expected of them, and they’ve managed to go 18-11 and compete with the top teams in the American Athletic. They’d love to cap off a great regular season with one final win here at home on Senior Day.
I don’t think they’ll get much resistance from SMU, which appears to have packed it in here down the stretch. The Mustangs are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall with their only win coming at home against UConn. Three of their last four losses have come by double-digits. At 13-16 on the season now, they just don’t have much to play for today.
The Bulls are 14-4 at home this season, while the Mustangs are just 2-7 in true road games. The Bulls also get an extra day of rest and preparation as they last played on Wednesday, while the Mustangs last played at Houston on Thursday. And off that Houston loss, they will have a hard time getting motivated to face South Florida today after facing the top team in the conference just a few days ago.
SMU is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Mustangs are 2-9 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season. SMU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven Sunday games. The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Bulls are 15-5 ATS int heir last 20 games following a SU win. Take South Florida Sunday.
|03-10-19||Houston v. Cincinnati -2||Top||85-69||Loss||-107||2 h 21 m||Show|
20* Houston/Cincinnati CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati -2
The Houston Cougars have already been assured at least share of the AAC Title. They won’t be nearly as motivated Cincinnati, which needs a win to claim a share of the title with Houston. That’s because the Bearcats suffered a loss at UCF last time out to fall a game behind the Cougars in the conference.
"It would be awesome. It's a big game,” head coach Mick Cronin said. "You've worked all year to have a chance to share the regular season championship. Sometimes winning can get minimized, especially when you've done a lot of it. I can assure you that everyone else in our league wishes they were playing for a share of the title on Sunday. That's your goal. You can't win it if you're not in it. We have chance to be in the title fight, even if it's only for a share of a half of one. It's huge."
Now, the Bearcats are back home here on Senior Day looking for revenge on the Cougars after losing to them 58-65 on the road in their first meeting this season. I like their chances to get revenge at home this time around considering they are 16-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.1 points per game.
I also think we are getting a discount on the Bearcats today because they have been overvalued for quite some time now, but now they are no longer overvalued after going 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall coming in. Houston is the team that’s overvalued currently today.
Cincinnati is a perfect 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Houston. Plays on home teams (Cincinnati) - after failing to cover the spread in seven or more consecutive games are 45-18 (71.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Cincinnati Sunday.
|03-09-19||Michigan +4 v. Michigan State||Top||63-75||Loss||-110||9 h 54 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan +4
The Michigan Wolverines took the Michigan State Spartans lightly in their first meeting this season, losing 70-77 as 4.5-point home favorites. It was one of the Spartans’ first games without Nick Ward, so I think the Wolverines just thought they could show up and win.
Now, learning from their mistakes in the first meeting, I fully expect the Wolverines to win outright in the rematch. Getting 4 points is just an added bonus. The fact remains that the Spartans are without two of their top three scorers in Nick Ward and Joshua Langford. If both of these teams were max motivated, the Wolverines would win 9 out of 10 times minimum in their current state.
Michigan is 9-1 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season. The Wolverines are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Michigan is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Michigan State. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Bet Michigan Saturday.
|03-09-19||Northern Iowa +1 v. Drake||60-58||Win||100||7 h 59 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa +1
The injury bug keeps hurting the Drake Bulldogs. They’ve overcome a lot of adversity this season with the injuries, but this is simply too much to overcome now. Their great season ends today against Northern Iowa Saturday.
The Bulldogs lost second-leading scorer Nick Norton (14.0 PPG) early in the season. They lost D.J. Wilkins (11.1 PPG), their 4th-leading scorer, in their regular season finale. And now leading scorer Nick McGlynn (15.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG) suffered an injury yesterday in the win over Illinois State that is likely to keep him out today. Missing 3 of their top 4 scorers now, the Bulldogs are done for.
Northern Iowa is playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch. The Panthers are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. One of the losses was a 1-point loss against the best team in the MVC in Loyola-Chicago. And four of the five wins have come by double-digits.
Northern Iowa is 8-2 ATS when revenging a loss this season, including 7-1 ATS when revenging a road loss this year. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record. Northern Iowa is 15-4-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings, consistently having Drake’s number in this in-state rivalry. Take Northern Iowa Saturday.
|03-09-19||St. John's v. Xavier -2.5||68-81||Win||100||6 h 2 m||Show|
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Xavier -2.5
The Xavier Musketeers are making a big run to close the season to try and make the NCAA Tournament. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Butler. They have won at Providence, Seton Hall and St. John’s during this stretch, while also beating Creighton and Villanova at home.
Now, the Musketeers are up against St. John’s again after just beating them by 11 on the road. The Red Storm are dealing with some injuries and suspensions right now, which is why they have struggled down the stretch. They have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, losing by 19 at Providence, by 11 at home to Xavier and by 9 at DePaul.
Xavier is 9-2 ATS in home games after having won three of their last four games over the past two seasons. The Musketeers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Xavier Saturday.
|03-09-19||UCF v. Temple||Top||62-67||Win||100||5 h 54 m||Show|
20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Temple PK
The motivation is at an all-time high for the Temple Owls today. They are currently on the ‘Last 4 In’ line according to Joe Lunardi. They need a win to get in the NCAA Tournament, and a victory over Top 25 UCF would do the trick.
Not to mention, it’s Senior Day, meaning it’s the final home game for leading scorer Shizz Alston Jr. (19.6 PPG) and company. And it’s Fran Dunphy’s final season at Temple. So the Owls couldn’t possibly be more motivated than they are right now.
This is a massive letdown spot for UCF. The Owls punched their tickets to the NCAA Tournament with back-to-back wins over Houston and Cincinnati, the top two teams in the conference. There’s no question they have been celebrating those two wins big-time the past few days, and they will come out flat Saturday against a Temple team that simply wants it more.
The Owls are 12-2 at home this season. The Knights are way overvalued right now after going 8-0 ATS in their last eight games. We’ll ’sell high’ on them today and back the team that needs the win more. Bet Temple Saturday.
|03-08-19||San Diego v. Santa Clara +6||Top||62-45||Loss||-108||11 h 22 m||Show|
20* San Diego/Santa Clara CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +6
I love the spot for Santa Clara tonight. They had yesterday off while San Diego had to play Portland. Now the Broncos come in rested and ready to go tonight against the Toreros, and somehow they are catching points in this WCC second-round matchup.
Catching points despite the fact that Santa Clara won 68-56 as identical 6-point home dogs in their first and only meeting this season already. After already beating the Toreros by 12, and being rested while San Diego is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, this is a huge line mistake tonight.
Of course, the Broncos have been undervalued all season, especially down the stretch. They are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. Santa Clara is 14-4 ATS off an ATS win this season. The Toreros are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. San Diego is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win. The Broncos are 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 neutral site games. The underdog is 23-3-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Bet Santa Clara Friday.
|03-08-19||Pepperdine v. Loyola Marymount -4.5||68-65||Loss||-110||9 h 1 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Loyola-Marymount -4.5
I love the spot for Loyola-Marymount (20-10) against Pepperdine (14-17) tonight. The Lions did not have to play yesterday and have been off since March 2nd, while the Waves had to play a hard-fought 61-53 win over Pacific last night and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back in the WCC Tournament second-round matchup.
Loyola-Marymount closed the regular season in impressive fashion by winning their final three games, including a 63-56 road win at Pacific and a 74-69 upset road win at San Francisco as 7.5-point dogs. This veteran team that returned all five starters is locked in and ready to make a run in the WCC Tournament.
Loyola-Marymount is 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Waves are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Lions are 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. Take Loyola-Marymount Friday.
|03-07-19||Evansville v. Illinois State -5||60-65||Push||0||9 h 56 m||Show|
15* MVC Tournament No-Brainer on Illinois State -5
Illinois State made the MVC Championship Game last season. They returned four starters from that team, but they have been disappointing at 16-15 this year. Still, I think this team will be able to flip the switch now that the MVC Tournament starts tonight. Look for them to use their veteran experience to blow Evansville out of the building tonight.
The Redbirds have shown what they are capable of in the regular season when they are fully focused. Drake and Loyola-Chicago tied for first in the conference. Well, Illinois State went 3-1 in its four meetings with Drake and Loyola, the best the MVC has to offer.
Evansville is a young team with just one returning starter that really played like a young team down the stretch. Indeed, the Purple Aces closed the season going 2-11 SU & 4-9 ATS in their final 13 games. Their only two wins during this stretch came against Valparaiso, another team that is struggling as much as they are.
Illinois State simply owns Evansville. The Redbirds are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Purple Aces with seven of their eight wins coming by 6 points or more. And that’s all it will take for them to cover tonight as 5-point favorites. The Redbirds are 21-10-2 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss. The Purple Aces are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off an ATS win. Take Illinois State Thursday.
|03-06-19||Arkansas v. Vanderbilt +2||Top||84-48||Loss||-110||9 h 21 m||Show|
25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Vanderbilt +2
Well, Vanderbilt is now 0-16 in SEC play this season. This is their last real good chance to get a conference win because they close at LSU in their finale Saturday. I look for them to take advantage and get that win at home on Senior Night Wednesday against one of the worst teams in the SEC in Arkansas.
Adding to Vanderbilt’s motivation tonight is the fact that they only lost 66-69 at Arkansas on February 5th in their first meeting this season. So this is clearly a Razorbacks team they are capable of beating, and after several near-misses this season, I expect them to finally get over the hump and get their first conference win tonight.
Arkansas really has nothing to play for. The Razorbacks are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games overall with their only win coming by a single point at home against Ole Miss. The Razorbacks are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Oddsmakers are begging you to back them as small favorites here against the winless Commodores, but don’t fall for it. This ‘baiting' line makes me love Vanderbilt even more tonight.
Arkansas is 0-6 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less over the last twos seasons. The Razorbacks are 1-9 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over the last two seasons. They just seem to relax in these spots. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take Vanderbilt Wednesday.
|03-06-19||Iowa State v. West Virginia +8||75-90||Win||100||8 h 54 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on West Virginia +8
The Iowa State Cyclones are finding it hard to be motivated here down the stretch. They were recently eliminated from Big 12 title contention. It’s a big reason why they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. They have only won two of their last eight games by more than 5 points.
West Virginia is a team that will give them a battle at home here on Senior Night. The Mountaineers want revenge from their 68-93 los at Iowa State in which they completely fell apart in the second half. They recently upset TCU at home, and fought hard in road losses to Baylor and Oklahoma in their last three games.
West Virginia has won three straight home meetings with Iowa State by 15, 11 and 10 points. They only lost by 2 and won by 25 in their previous two home meetings with the Cyclones as well. So, they have outscored Iowa State by a total of 59 points in their last five home meetings, or by an average of 11.8 points per game.
Iowa State will be without leading scorer Marial Shayok (18.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG), and they could be without starting PG Nick Weiler-Babb (9.3 PPG, 4.1 APG, 4.8 RPG), who is questionable with an injury. That severely hampers their chances of not only covering this game, but winning it outright as well.
The Mountaineers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Iowa State 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a road favorite of 6 points or less. The Cyclones are 1-8 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons. The Mountaineers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off three or more consecutive overs. West Virginia is 6-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 155 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. They are winning by 20.5 points per game in this spot. Roll with West Virginia Wednesday.
|03-06-19||LSU v. Florida +1||79-78||Push||0||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* LSU/Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Florida +1
The Florida Gators won five straight games, including upset road wins over Alabama and LSU, to put themselves in good position to make the NCAA Tournament. But then they came out flat against Georgia and lost their last home game. That loss did them no favors, and they are back on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.
I fully expect the Gators to come back highly motivated from that loss, especially since it’s Senior Night as this will be their final home game of the season. And they welcome nationally ranked LSU to town and would love to cap the season sweep of the Tigers and prevent them from winning the SEC.
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Tigers, who have gone 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. But six of their seven wins during this stretch have come by 5 points or less, so they have simply been fortunate in close games. I think their luck runs out tonight against the Gators.
LSU is 0-6 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite over the last three seasons. The Tigers are losing by 15.5 points per game in this spot. LSU is 1-8 ATS when revenging any loss over the last three years as well. The Tigers are 3-14 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of its games over the last three seasons. Bet Florida Wednesday.
|03-06-19||Marquette v. Seton Hall +2.5||64-73||Win||100||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Seton Hall +2.5
This is a huge game for Seton Hall. The Pirates are currently on the ‘Last 4 In’ line according to Joe Lunardi. So they are clinging on to a spot in the big dance. A win over No. 16 Marquette here would certainly help get them in.
Adding to the Pirates’ motivation is the fact that they want revenge from a 4-point loss at Marquette, 66-70, as 4.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season. If you adjust for home-court advantage, the Pirates should be favored in the rematch. Instead, they are 2.5-point dogs, a difference of only 2 points from the line in the first meeting.
I think we are getting extra value on the Pirates because they are coming off three straight losses in toss-up games. They lost by 1 at home to Xavier, lost in overtime at Georgetown and lost by 8 at St. John’s. That adds to their motivation off the three straight losses as well.
Marquette won a ton of close games throughout the season, but they’ve finally fallen short in them in their last two. They lost by 6 at Villanova and by 6 at home to Creighton as 7.5-point favorites. And while Marquette played Creighton on Sunday, Seton Hall last played on Saturday against Georgetown. And extra rest a team gets this late in the season is huge, and the Pirates get an extra day here to prepare for the Golden Eagles.
Marquette is 1-5 ATS in its last six games off a loss. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Steve Wojciechowski is 3-13 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent as the coach of Marquette. Kevin Willard is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games as the coach of the Pirates. Roll with Seton Hall Wednesday.
|03-05-19||Purdue v. Minnesota +5||Top||69-73||Win||100||8 h 57 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota +5
The Minnesota Golden Gophers find themselves on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They are on the ‘First 4 In’ line according to Joe Lunardi. They could really use a signature win here over No. 11 Purdue to secure their place in the NCAA Tournament tonight.
Adding to their motivation is the fact that it will be Senior Night, and this is a veteran team led by seniors Jordan Murphy (14.6 PPG, 11.7 RPG) and Dupree McBrayer (9.1 PPG). The Gophers also want revenge after blowing a halftime lead and a big lead in the 2nd half to eventually lose 63-73 at Purdue in their first meeting this season.
Purdue comes in overvalued off back-to-back blowout home wins over Illinois and Ohio State. But it has been a different story for them on the road. In their last four road games, they lost by 14 at Maryland, only beat Indiana by 2 as 6-point favorites, only beat Nebraska by 3 as 6-point favorites, and needed overtime to beat Penn State as 7.5-point favorites.
Minnesota is 13-3 at home this season. The Gophers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog. The Boilermakers are 4-12 ATS in road games off a conference win over the last two seasons. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Minnesota Tuesday.
|03-05-19||South Carolina v. Texas A&M -4||71-54||Loss||-109||6 h 19 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -4
Quietly, the Texas A&M Aggies are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch. They have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They’ve gone on the road and upset Missouri by 9 and Arkansas by 7, while also handling their business at home with a 17-point win over Georgia, a 9-point win over Alabama and a 7-point win over Vanderbilt.
They only lost by 4 at Ole Miss as 10-point dogs, only lost by 7 at South Carolina as 4.5-point dogs and competed hard in an 11-point loss at LSU as 10-point dogs. Now, the Aggies want revenge from that loss at South Carolina, and I think they get it at home here on Senior Night.
The Gamecocks have packed it in. They found themselves on the bubble a few weeks ago, but now they’ve lost three straight with a 15-point loss at Mississippi State, a 6-point home loss to Alabama and a 15-point road loss at Missouri. They know their only shot at making the tournament is to win the SEC Tournament now. Plus, they are missing their 2nd-best player in A.J. Lawson (13.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.0 APG), who missed last game with an ankle injury and will sit this game out as well.
The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Aggies are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Gamecocks. Take Texas A&M Tuesday.
|03-04-19||Kansas State -1.5 v. TCU||64-52||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* Kansas State/TCU ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -1.5
The Kansas State Wildcats are tied with Texas Tech for first place in the Big 12 this season. Win out and they’ll be guaranteed at least a share of the title. This is their last big hurdle tonight as they host Oklahoma to finish out the season on Saturday.
I expect this senior-laden Wildcats team to come up big tonight and get yet another huge road win in conference play over faltering TCU. Kansas State has already gone on the road and beaten Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas and West Virginia in Big 12 play this season. Their only two road losses came at Kansas and at Texas Tech.
TCU is quickly playing itself out of the NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS int heir last five games overall with their only win coming by a narrow 3 points at home against Iowa State. They have lost at home to Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech during this stretch, while also suffering bad road losses at Oklahoma State and WVU.
Kansas State is 7-1 ATS in conference road games this season. TCU is 0-6 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS off a game as a home underdog over the last three years. The Wildcats are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 Big 12 games. The Wildcats are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Kansas State Monday.
|03-03-19||Arizona State v. Oregon State -3||74-71||Loss||-105||9 h 7 m||Show|
15* ASU/Oregon State ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -3
The Oregon State Beavers will be highly motivated for a win at home on Senior Night. This is a veteran team that is led by seniors Stephen Thompson Jr. (16.4 PPG, 4.4 RGP) Gilgorje Rakocevic (5.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG). It’s a big day for these two, and I look for fellow veterans Tres Tinkle (20.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Ethan Thompson (13.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG) to try and send them out winners in their final home game.
Adding to Oregon State’s motivation is the fact that it wants revenge from a tough 67-70 road loss at Arizona State in their first meeting this season. Now the Sun Devils have to hit the road, where they are just 3-4 in Pac-12 road games this season with their only wins coming against Cal, UCLA and Utah, three of the worst teams in the conference. They have also lost by 14 at Stanford, lost at USC, lost at Colorado and lost at Oregon by 28.
The Beavers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. The Sun Devils are 5-13-2 ATS int heir last 20 road games. Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with ASU. The Beavers are 6-0 ATS in home games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons. Arizona State is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of its games over the last two seasons. Roll with Oregon State Sunday.
|03-03-19||Notre Dame v. Louisville -8||61-75||Win||100||3 h 33 m||Show|
15* Notre Dame/Louisville ACC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -8
The Louisville Cardinals come in highly motivated for a victory today. They have lost three straight and five of their last six and are now in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament if they don’t finish strong. I expect a big effort form them here in their final home game, making this Senior Day for the Cardinals.
Notre Dame will not put up much resistance. The Fighting Irish are just 2-10 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They are 1-7 SU in true road games this season as well. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings in this series.
Louisville is 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record over the last three seasons. Notre Dame is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games following an ATS win. The Cardinals are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record. They will get right against the Fighting Irish today in a blowout home win on Senior Day. Take Louisville Sunday.
|03-02-19||Memphis +9.5 v. Cincinnati||69-71||Win||100||19 h 1 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis +9.5
The Memphis Tigers are playing too well right now to be 9.5-point road dogs to Cincinnati. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning by 26 at Tulane, upsetting Wichita State on the road, and beating Temple by 8 at home as 4-point favorites.
Now, the Tigers want revenge on Cincinnati after leading nearly the entire way in their first meeting before blowing it in the closing minutes, losing 64-69 at home. They should be able to at least stay within the number against a Bearcats team that has been massively overvalued down the stretch, going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Tigers are 9-3 ATS int heir last 12 Saturday games. The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS int heir last six home games. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Memphis Saturday.
|03-02-19||Seton Hall v. Georgetown -2||71-77||Win||100||18 h 32 m||Show|
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown -2
The Georgetown Hoyas need this win badly. They are currently on Joe Lunardi’s ‘last four out’ line, so if they want to make the NCAA Tournament, this is a must-win. Seton Hall is currently in the tournament if the season were to end today.
Adding to the Hoyas’ motivation today is the fact that it is Senior Day. They also want revenge from a 75-90 loss at Seton Hall in their first meeting this season on February 13th.
Seton Hall is 1-9 ATS after playing a game as an underdog this season. The Pirates are 2-10 ATS off a road loss this season. Seton Hall is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games off a loss. Take Georgetown Saturday.
|03-02-19||Rutgers +8.5 v. Iowa||Top||86-72||Win||100||16 h 2 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +8.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes are extremely fortunate they’re not on a five-game losing streak right now. They lost at home to Maryland and on the road to Ohio State by 20. And their three wins came in lucky fashion as they hit buzzer-beaters against both Northwestern at home and Rutgers on the road, and they got a late 3-pointer to force overtime against Indiana at home, a game they eventually won.
As I mentioned, they hit a buzzer-beater to beat Rutgers. That places the Scarlet Knights in revenge mode, and I really like them catching 8.5 points here today against the Hawkeyes. This is a Rutgers team that has been grossly underrated here down the stretch, going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
Rutgers has a couple of hidden advantages here. They have two more days to get ready for this game as they last played on February 24th, while Iowa last played on February 26th. Plus, the Hawkeyes will be without head coach Fran McCaffery, who is serving a two-game suspension along with his son, Colin McCaffery.
Iowa is 0-6 ATS after a game with five or fewer offensive rebounds over the last three seasons. Rutgers are 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. Combine these trends with the fact that Iowa is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall, while Rutgers is 5-0 ATS in its last five games, and we have a perfect 20-0 system in favor of the Scarlet Knights. Take Rutgers Saturday.
|03-02-19||Drake v. Missouri State -2.5||73-62||Loss||-109||15 h 1 m||Show|
15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri State -2.5
Missouri State will be highly motivated for a win here at home on Senior Day. The Bears trail Drake by just one game for first place in the Missouri Valley. They want a chance to at least share the conference title, and they also want revenge from a 63-74 loss at Drake in their first meeting this season.
The Bears have been playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch. They are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games overall since that loss to Drake. And they are coming off a road loss at Illinois State, which only adds to their motivation.
Missouri State is 18-3 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with Drake. The home team is 18-7 ATS in the last 25 meetings. Bet Missouri State Saturday.
|03-02-19||Kentucky v. Tennessee -2.5||Top||52-71||Win||100||13 h 2 m||Show|
25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee -2.5
The Tennessee Vols will be highly motivated for several reasons today. They are tied with Kentucky for first place in the SEC, and they want revenge from their worst loss of the season, which came 69-86 at Kentucky on February 16th just two weeks ago today. They’ll get their revenge as 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch.
The Volunteers now come in undervalued after going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. So we’ll ‘buy low’ on them, and ’sell high’ on the Wildcats, who are quickly becoming a favorite of the betting public. That’s because they have gone 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall while only losing outright once during this stretch.
Kentucky has a key injury that’s getting overlooked. Reid Tavis (11.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG) is a senior transfer from Stanford who provides veteran leadership for this team. Well, he has missed the last two games, and the Wildcats barely survived without him in a 70-66 home win over Arkansas as 15.5-point favorites last time out. They won’t be so fortunate here against Tennessee. Travis had 11 points and 8 rebounds in their first meeting.
Tennessee is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good offensive tams that average 77 or more points pre game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. The Vols are 16-0 at home this season, winning by 21.5 points per game, and they basically just have to win to cover today. Bet Tennessee Saturday.
|03-02-19||Michigan State v. Indiana +6||62-63||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
15* Michigan State/Indiana FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +6
The Indiana Hoosiers continue to fight hard. They are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by only 2 as 6-point home dogs to Purdue, losing in overtime at Iowa as 7.5-point dogs, and upsetting Wisconsin in overtime as 2.5-point home dogs.
Now, the Hoosiers face a Michigan State team that they already beat 79-75 as 14-point road dogs in their first meeting this season. And it’s a Spartans team that is primed for a letdown off their huge win over rival Michigan last time out, which also has them overvalued.
But these Spartans are extremely vulnerable now. They are missing two of their top three scorers in Nick Ward and Joshua Langford, and it’s going to catch up to them sooner rather than later. They have no business being 6-point road favorites over Indiana without the services of these two.
Michigan is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 road games after playing a game as a road underdog. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Spartans are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 trips to Bloomington. Roll with Indiana Saturday.
|02-28-19||Nebraska v. Michigan -11||53-82||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
15* Nebraska/Michigan Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan -11
The Michigan Wolverines will be highly motivated for a win tonight when they face the reeling Nebraska Cornhuskers. They are coming off an upset home loss to Michigan State, their first home loss of the season. And they’re looking to take out their frustration on the Huskers tonight.
Nebraska is a vulnerable target as it has gone just 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall. This run has basically coincided with the season-ending injury to their most important player in Isaac Copeland. They played seven of those 11 games at home, and went 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in road games with losses to Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue (by 19) and Penn State (by 24). Now they have to face arguably the best team in the Big Ten in Michigan, and I just don’t see them being able to stay within 11 points.
Adding to the Wolverines’ motivation is the fact that this will be their final home game of the season, so it’s Senior Night. The Wolverines have owned the Huskers as well, going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with seven of those wins coming by 13 points or more.
Nebraska is 0-9 ATS in its last nine road games after failing to cover 8 or more of its last 10 games. Michigan is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. The Wolverines are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing the Wolverines tonight. Roll with Michigan Thursday.
|02-28-19||Xavier v. St. John's -4.5||84-73||Loss||-105||6 h 10 m||Show|
15* Xavier/St. John’s Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on St. John’s -4.5
St. John’s is 20-8 on the season and on its way to the NCAA Tournament as long as it doesn’t slip up here in the final few weeks of the season. I expect them to win and cover tonight at home against Xavier and believe we are getting a discount on the Red Storm tonight.
It’s Senior Night, meaning this will be their final home game of the season. They want to send out their seniors and their home fans with one final victory at Madison Square Garden in what has been a special season. They are 13-3 at home this season, so they have been a tough out here.
Xavier is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. But that followed up a 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS stretch, and this is still a rebuilding team. The Musketeers are just 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in true road games this season. And you can bet St. John’s will be extra motivated to end a seven-game losing streak to the Musketeers in this series.
Xavier is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % of greater than .600. St. John’s is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Red Storm are 14-3 ATS in home games after playing a home game over the last three seasons, winning by 13.1 points per game in this spot. Take St. John’s Thursday.
|02-27-19||Marquette v. Villanova -5||Top||61-67||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
20* Marquette/Villanova Big East No-Brainer on Villanova -5
I love the spot for the Villanova Wildcats tonight. They are back home finally after losing four of their last five games with all four losses coming on the road. They’ll be highly motivated for a victory because they are chasing down Marquette for 1st place in the Big East and are 1.5 games behind currently.
The Wildcats will also be out for revenge after losing a 65-66 heartbreaker at Marquette in their first meeting this season. It will be a different score at home, where they are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games with all 10 wins coming by 5 points or more and by an average of 13.0 points per game.
Marquette certainly could relax finally tonight knowing that they’ll still be in 1st place even if they lose this game and in control of their own destiny still. And I just think it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Golden Eagles, who have covered 14 of their last 18 games overall coming in.
Villanova is 6-0 SU & in its last six home meetings with Marquette with five of those wins coming by double-digits. The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers. Villanova is 22-8 ATS in its lsat 30 home games. The Wildcats are 54-25 ATS in their last 79 games following an ATS loss. Take Villanova Wednesday.
|02-27-19||Texas v. Baylor -3.5||83-84||Loss||-105||9 h 36 m||Show|
15* Texas/Baylor ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -3.5
Despite battling through injuries, the Baylor Bears have managed to go 9-3 SU & 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They are playing as well as almost anyone in the Big 12. And they certainly want revenge from one of their losses during this stretch which came 72-84 at Texas on February 6th.
It was certainly a rare win for the Longhorns in this series. Baylor is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with Texas. And now the Longhorns are without their best player, so I just don’t see how they are going to break down that tough Baylor zone defense that has always given them fits.
Kerwin Roach had 21 points in their first meeting with Baylor this season. Now they don’t have Roach (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG), who is far and away the best player on their team. He will miss this game due to an indefinite suspension.
Texas is just 2-6 SU in true road games this season. Baylor is 8-2 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Bears are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Bet Baylor Wednesday.
|02-27-19||Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa +2||Top||56-55||Win||100||8 h 44 m||Show|
25* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa +2
The Northern Iowa Panthers have been flying under the radar. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Oddsmakers have missed the mark on this team big-time. All four wins have come by double-digits.
They beat Valparaiso by 11 and Illinois State by 13 at home, as well as upset road wins over Missouri State by 20 and Evansville by 15. The Panthers have covered the spread by a combined 59 points in their last four games, or by an average of 14.8 points per game. That’s how far the books have been off on this team.
Don’t look now but Northern Iowa is only one game back of first place in the Missouri Valley. It will also be Senior Night as this will be their final home game. And adding to the Panthers’ motivation is the fact that they want revenge from a 60-61 heartbreaking loss at Loyola-Chicago in their first meeting this season.
Loyola-Chicago gets a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to making the Final Four last year. But this year’s Ramblers aren’t nearly as good. And they are struggling of late going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. Their only cover came at home by a single point in a 12-point win over Evansville as 11-point favorites.
The Ramblers were upset by 10 at Southern Illinois, they were upset at home by Missouri State as 7-point favorites, and they were also upset as 3-point road favorites at Bradley. The Ramblers are now 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five road games with their four losses coming by an average of 15 points per game. Their only win came at Valparaiso by 5 as 3-point favorites and they needed a huge 2nd half comeback to win that game.
The Panthers are 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. With it being senior night, with revenge in mind, and with the MVC title in their sights, I know for sure we’re going to get a huge effort from Northern Iowa tonight. It should be enough to beat Loyola-Chicago. Bet Northern Iowa Wednesday.
|02-27-19||Missouri State v. Illinois State -2||57-65||Win||100||7 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois State -2
It’s safe to say the Illinois State Redbirds will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. They lost on a half court buzzer-beater to Missouri State on the road in their first meeting this season. They led basically the entire way and were crushed when that shot went in. They want some revenge tonight.
I expect the Redbirds to have their revenge at home this time around. They are 11-4 at home this season, while Missouri State is just 5-10 SU & 5-10 ATS in all road games. And Illinois State is a perfect 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with Missouri State. They basically just have to win to cover tonight.
Adding to the Redbirds’ motivation is the fact that it will be Senior Night, and this is a veteran bunch with three of their top five scorers being seniors in Milik Yarbrough (16.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG), Phil Fayne (15.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and Keyshawn Evans (7.8 PPG). They’ll certainly want to end their careers winners in their final home game.
Dana Ford is 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games as the coach of Missouri State. The Bears are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games. Roll with Illinois State Wednesday.
|02-26-19||Iowa v. Ohio State -2.5||Top||70-90||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -2.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes are currently a No. 10 seed according to Joe Lunardi. They are on the bubble, and they could really use a signature win here at home against a ranked team in No. 22 Iowa. I expect them to get the win and cover as a short home favorite tonight.
The Hawkeyes are a fraudulent team. Their last three wins were miracles against three of the worst teams in the Big Ten. They won at the buzzer as 11-point home favorites over Northwestern, won at the buzzer as 4-point road favorites at Rutgers, and hit a 3-pointer in the final seconds to send it to OT against Indiana where they eventually won by 6 as 7.5-point home favorites. Northwestern is 14th, Indiana 12th and Rutgers 10th in the Big Ten.
Ohio State also wants revenge from a 62-72 road loss at Iowa in their first meeting this season. The Buckeyes led 26-24 at halftime, but as has been their story on the road this season, they blew yet another halftime lead. Look for them to have their payback at home, where they beat the Hawkeyes by 18 at home last year.
Iowa is 1-9 ATS off two consecutive home games over the last two seasons. The Hawkeyes are 12-26-1 ATS in their last 39 road games. Iowa is 10-27-1 ATS in its last 38 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Ohio State Tuesday.
|02-26-19||Providence v. Butler -4.5||73-67||Loss||-105||9 h 34 m||Show|
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Butler -4.5
Butler is currently on the ‘first four out’ line according to Joe Lunardi. They need to finish the season strong to get into the NCAA Tournament. So they’ll obviously be highly motivated for a victory here as they host Providence, which at 15-13 is playing for nothing but pride right now.
Butler has one of the best home-court advantages in the country. The Bulldogs are 11-3 at home this season. And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Butler has won by 15 and 17 points in its last two home meetings with Providence.
The Friars aren’t playing with a lot of pride here down the stretch. They are just 2-6 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall. They are coming off an 18-point home loss to Marquette and also lost by 14 at home to Xavier here recently. They lost by 12 at DePaul and by 18 at Villanova during this stretch as well.
The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Providence is 1-8 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season. The Friars are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game after 14-plus games this season. Take Butler Tuesday.
|02-26-19||Alabama v. South Carolina -1.5||68-62||Loss||-109||9 h 34 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina -1.5
The South Carolina Gamecocks are at least in the NCAA Tournament discussion. They are currently listed on the ’next four out’ line according to Joe Lunardi. They will be highly motivated for a win here against an Alabama team that is ranked ahead of them, currently on the ‘last four byes’ line according to Lunardi.
South Carolina has been one of the most underrated teams in the SEC this season. They are 9-5 SU & 10-4 ATS in SEC play. They have done most their damage at home, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS with their only loss to Tennessee. They beat Mississippi State, Missouri, Auburn, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Ole Miss at home this season by an average of 8.7 points per game.
Alabama is really choking away its opportunity to make the tournament. The Crimson Tide are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost by 19 at Mississippi State, by 18 at home to Florida, by 9 at Texas A&M and failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites over lowly Vanderbilt. The Crimson Tide are just 3-7 SU in true road games this season.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-1 SU in the last 11 meetings, and the Gamecocks basically just have to win this game to cover. South Carolina is 10-2 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons. The Gamecocks are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 SEC games. Roll with South Carolina Tuesday.
|02-25-19||Kansas State v. Kansas -3.5||Top||49-64||Win||100||11 h 2 m||Show|
20* K-State/Kansas ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas -3.5
If the Kansas Jayhawks want any chance of keeping their Big 12 title streak alive, they have to beat Kansas State at home tonight. They trail them by two games for first place in the standings. I believe they come out with an inspired effort and get the win and cover here against the Wildcats.
I also think we’re getting a discount on the Jayhawks tonight since they lost in ugly fashion at Texas Tech over the weekend. That was a max motivated Red Raiders team that may be the best in the Big 12. At the same time, Kansas State beat arguably the worst team in the Big 12 in Oklahoma State by 39 over the weekend. Those results have created some artificial line value for this game.
While Kansas has struggled on the road, the Jayhawks are a perfect 14-0 at home this season and winning by 14.1 points per game. They are 7-0 at home in Big 12 play with six of their seven wins coming by 4 points or more, which is all that it will take to cover this small 3.5-point spread.
The Jayhawks are 47-6 SU in all home meetings with Kansas State since 1997, including 20-1 SU at home. Kansas is 17-2 ATS in its last 19 after allowing 45 points or more in the first half of last game. The Jayhawks are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games off a road loss by 10 points or more. Kansas is 90-12 SU in its last 102 games off a loss. The Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games off a loss by more than 20 points. Bet Kansas Monday.
|02-25-19||Oklahoma +10 v. Iowa State||61-78||Loss||-108||10 h 2 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Iowa State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma +10
The Oklahoma Sooners are a bubble team and currently a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament according to Joe Lunardi. They still have some work to do despite winning two straight over TCU on the road and Texas at home. And they could really use a win here against Iowa State.
The Sooners will be out for revenge on the Cyclones after a tough 74-75 home loss to them in their first meeting this season on February 4th earlier this month. “It’s just a matter of being able to fight through adversity," said junior forward Kristian Doolittle. “But now we have two wins under our belts. We have another big game coming up Monday against Iowa State, one that we felt like we let get away here.”
In losing three of their last four games, the Cyclones are now 8-6 in the conference and three games behind Kansas State for first place. They thought they had a chance to win the Big 12, but now that hope is gone. I just don’t like the mental state of the Cyclones right now knowing they have no chance to win the conference. And now they’ve being asked to lay a huge number here Monday. They are just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three Big 12 home games, losing outright to Baylor and TCU, and barely beating Texas by 5.
Oklahoma is 10-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season. The Sooners are 7-1 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. Oklahoma is 8-1-3 ATS in its last 12 road games overall, and 6-0–3 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Cyclones are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Take Oklahoma Monday.
|02-24-19||Michigan State v. Michigan -3.5||Top||77-70||Loss||-111||6 h 40 m||Show|
20* Michigan State/Michigan CBS Sunday No-Brainer on Michigan -3.5
I’m shocked Michigan isn’t a bigger favorite over Michigan State here Sunday. The Spartans are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for this being a rivalry game. But it’s going to be one-sided in the Wolverines’ favor today, and there’s not much the Spartans can do about it.
That’s because the Spartans are missing two of their three best players. Joshua Langford (15.0 PPG) has been missing for a while now, but star big man Nick Ward (15.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG) just recently suffered a fractured hand and will be out for several weeks. In their first game without Ward, they actually trailed Rutgers in the 2nd half before eventually winning by 11 as 15.5-point favorites.
Michigan is a perfect 16-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.5 points per game and holding them to 55.6 points per game and 39.7% shooting. The Wolverines are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Michigan is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 Sunday games. The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Take Michigan Sunday.
|02-24-19||SMU v. UCF -5.5||48-95||Win||100||2 h 56 m||Show|
15* SMU/UCF AAC Early ANNIHILATOR on UCF -5.5
At 19-6 on the season, the UCF Knights are on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They are coming off a tough 55-60 loss at Cincinnati and will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home Sunday to face the SMU Mustangs.
This is a rebuilding SMU team that sits at just 13-13 on the season and has had a hard time playing for pride here of late. The Mustangs are just 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Their only wins during this stretch have both come at home against two of the worst teams in the AAC in Tulane and UConn.
UCF is 13-2 at home this season. The Knights already went on the road and beat SMU 71-65 in their first meeting this season. They also beat SMU 52-37 as 4.5-point home favorites in their final meeting last season.
SMU is 0-7 ATS in road games off a home win over the last two seasons. UCF is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 home games off four or more straight ATS covers. The Mustangs are 2-8 ATS when playing against a good team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season. SMU is 8-22-1 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five Sunday games. The Knights are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 home games. Roll with UCF Sunday.
|02-23-19||Oregon State v. USC -2||67-62||Loss||-107||8 h 22 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC -2
The USC Trojans have been a great bet at home all season. They are 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS on their home floor while outscoring the opposition by nearly 12 points per game. And I think they are showing great value as only 2-point favorites over Oregon State today.
USC clearly wants revenge from a tough 74-79 road loss at Oregon State in their first meeting this season. Well, considering the Trojans are 17-3 SU in their last 20 home meetings with the Beavers, they should have no problem winning the rematch at home this time around.
The Trojans are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with Oregon State overall. The home team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Oregon State is 0-5 ATS in its last five trips to USC. The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in home games off a conference home win over the last two seasons. They are winning by 14.0 points per game in this spot. Take USC Saturday.
|02-23-19||South Carolina +10.5 v. Mississippi State||61-76||Loss||-111||8 h 57 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Carolina +10.5
For whatever reason, the South Carolina Gamecocks just get no respect from the betting public and oddsmakers alike. This despite the fact that they are 9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS in SEC play, which has been one of the strongest conferences in the country.
Yet here the Gamecocks are again getting disrespected as double-digit road underdogs to Mississippi State. This is a Bulldogs team they already beat 87-82 as 6-point home dogs earlier this season. And while the Bulldogs may win the rematch, they aren’t going to do so by double-digits.
Mississippi State is just not that good in my opinion. Almost every time they’ve stepped up in class they have lost. But they are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers because they are coming off three straight victories over bottom-tier SEC teams in Alabama, Arkansas and Georgia. And they needed a technical foul in the closing seconds to beat a bad Georgia team 68-67 on Wednesday. The Bulldogs have now had only two days to prepare for South Carolina, while the Gamecocks have three days to prepare after crushing Ole Miss 79-64 on Tuesday.
South Carolina is 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Gamecocks are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 SEC games. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. The underdog is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet South Carolina Saturday.
|02-23-19||Florida State +7 v. North Carolina||Top||59-77||Loss||-109||6 h 8 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +7
This is the ultimate letdown spot for the North Carolina Tar Heels. They are coming off a huge 88-72 road win over their biggest rivals in the Duke Blue Devils. There’s no way they get up for Florida State Saturday after beating Duke, which was aided by a terrible injury to Duke’s best player in Zion Williamson in the opening minutes.
Florida State is no joke. The Seminoles are a veteran team that could make some serious noise in the NCAA Tournament. They are proving that by going 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with seven of their eight victories coming by 9 points or more. The only exception was a 5-point win over Louisville. Remember that the Seminoles lost on a buzzer beater to Duke earlier this season, so they’ve proven they can play with the best.
Florida State is 8-0 ATS vs. good rebounding teams who out-rebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Seminoles are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. explosive offensive teams that score 84 or more points per game over the last two seasons. Bet Florida State Saturday.
|02-23-19||Iowa State -1 v. TCU||72-75||Loss||-110||4 h 23 m||Show|
15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State -1
The Iowa State Cyclones have actually been better on the road than at home this season. They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, winning at Texas Tech 68-64 as 6-point dogs, only losing to Kansas by 4 as 5-point dogs, winning at Ole Miss by 14 as 1.5-point favorites, winning at Oklahoma by 1 as 3-point favorites and winning at Kansas State by 14 as 2.5-point dogs.
Now, the Cyclones come in highly motivated for another road victory for a few reasons. The first is that they’re coming off a bad home loss to Baylor. And the second is that they want revenge form an upset home loss to TCU as 9.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.
The TCU Horned Frogs are vulnerable right now with all of the injuries they are dealing with. That has been evident as they are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing at home to Kansas by 5, getting upset at home by Oklahoma by 9 and getting upset at Oklahoma State by 7. They’ll drop their fourth in a row here against a healthier, superior Iowa State team.
The Cyclones are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 points or more. Iowa State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss. The Horned Frogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Roll with Iowa State Saturday.
|02-23-19||Texas v. Oklahoma -4||67-69||Loss||-107||2 h 23 m||Show|
15* Texas/Oklahoma ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -4
The Oklahoma Sooners picked up a huge 71-62 road win at TCU last time out to halt a five-game skid and put themselves on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. But there’s still work to be done for the Sooners.
Now, it’s time for Oklahoma to get revenge on hated rival Texas after a 72-75 road loss to the Longhorns in their first meeting this season. And they should be able to get their revenge against a Longhorns team that is just 2-5 SU in true road games.
The biggest reason I’m on Oklahoma today though is because Texas is going to be without its best player in Kerwin Roach due to suspension. Roach averages 15.0 points per game and for a team that already struggles on offense, they cannot afford to be without him.
Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in a week this season. The Sooners are 10-0 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season. Oklahoma is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons. These three trends combine for a 24-1 system backing the Sooners today. Take Oklahoma Saturday.
|02-22-19||Davidson v. Rhode Island||75-66||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
15* Davidson/Rhode Island ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Davidson PK
The Davidson Wildcats suffered a tough 73-74 home loss to Dayton on Tuesday. They are now in 2nd place in the Atlantic 10, one game back of VCU for first place. They own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Rams having beaten them in their one and only meeting this season. And they certainly want to win the conference, so they’ll be highly motivated the rest of the way to do so.
The same cannot be said for Rhode Island, which appears to have quiet. The Rams are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. The last four consecutive losses have been really concerning. They lost by 15 at Davidson, by 29 at home to Dayton, were upset at home by Fordham as 11-point favorites, and lost by 34 at VCU. If that’s not a sign of a team that has quit I don’t know what is.
Davidson is 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons. Davidson is 21-10-1 ATS in its last 32 vs. Atlantic 10 foes. Rhode Island is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 games after scoring less than 50 points in its previous game. Roll with Davidson Friday.
|02-21-19||St. Mary's v. Pacific +8.5||Top||58-32||Loss||-109||11 h 55 m||Show|
20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pacific +8.5
I love the spot for the Pacific Tigers tonight for several reasons. The first being that they are coming off three straight road losses, so they are undervalued, and now they’ll be back home for the first time since February 2nd. And those weren’t bad road losses as they covered at St. Mary’s and BYU, and only lost by 5 at Santa Clara.
Now the Tigers get their shot at revenge against St. Mary’s, which was fortunate to beat them 78-66 at home as 14-point favorites. But that game was much closer than the final score would indicate as it was a single-digit game throughout until the last few minutes.
Few teams have played St. Mary’s as tough as Pacific in the West Coast Conference. Indeed, Pacific is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with St. Mary’s. The last five meetings at Pacific have all been decided by 8 points or fewer. And this is the worst St. Mary’s team they’ve had in years, so the Tigers should be able to stay within 8.5, if not pull off the upset.
St. Mary’s is 0-7 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons. Pacific is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last two years. The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Add in that the Tigers are 6-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and we have a combined 33-1 system backing the home team tonight. Take Pacific Thursday.
|02-21-19||Oregon v. USC -2||49-66||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC -2
The USC Trojans are in desperate need of a win at home here tonight. They took out their frustration with a 23-point win at California last time out to follow up their three consecutive losses. And now they want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season at Oregon 60-81 back on January 13th.
The Trojans should have their revenge at home this time around. They are 11-4 SU & 9-6 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game. Oregon is just 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in true road games this season. That includes their 15-point loss at Oregon State last time out.
The Ducks are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games overall. The Trojans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Ducks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Roll with USC Thursday.
|02-21-19||Michigan v. Minnesota +5.5||Top||69-60||Loss||-115||8 h 55 m||Show|
20* Michigan/Minnesota ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +5.5
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are on the ‘last four byes’ line by Joe Lunardi. They are barely in the NCAA Tournament. So a win here over Michigan would certainly put them in with room to spare, beating the 7th-ranked team in the country.
Minnesota nearly pulled the upset in a 57-59 loss as 12.5-point road dogs at Michigan in their first meeting this season. It’s safe to say they want revenge, and they should be able to get it at home this time around. The Gophers are 13-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Wisconsin and Maryland.
The Wolverines have been vulnerable on the road in Big Ten play here of late. Indeed, they are just 2-3 SU in their last five road games, losing at Wisconsin by 10, at Iowa by 15 and at Penn State by 6. Their only two road wins came against Indiana and Rutgers during this stretch, two of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Minnesota just blasted Indiana by 21 at home over the weekend.
The Gophers have had a knack for playing the Wolverines tough. In fact, each of the last 14 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, including nine by 5 points or fewer. The Gophers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Minnesota Thursday.
|02-20-19||Colorado -4 v. Washington State||74-76||Loss||-107||11 h 27 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado -4
Don’t look now but the Colorado Buffaloes are 16-9 and on the verge of getting onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. They’ve done so by doing 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. They upset both UCLA and USC on the road, while also beating Oregon, ASU and Arizona at home.
Now, the Buffaloes cannot afford a slip-up here at Washington State, and they know it. Look for them to carry their momentum into another win and cover here against a Cougars team they already throttled 92-60 at home as 11.5-point favorites. I think getting them as only 4-point road favorites in the rematch is cheap.
Washington State is coming off a gut-wrenching 70-72 home loss to its biggest rival in Washington. I think the Cougars suffer a ‘hangover’ from that defeat. They are now 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four Pac-12 home games, also losing by 9 to USC, by 20 to UCLA and by 12 to Stanford.
The Cougars are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall, while the Buffaloes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Washington State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with Colorado Wednesday.