Jack Jones NBA Picks
|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-14-11||Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers +1.5||99-86||Loss||-115||6 h 60 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +1.5
The Indiana Pacers have put together back-to-back wins against quality opponents. The knocked off the Philadelphia 76ers on the road 111-103, and returned home to beat the Dallas Mavericks 102-89. This team is much-improved this season and owns a winning home record where the Pacers are scoring 100.0 PPG and allowing 95.9 PPG, outscoring opponents at home by 4.1 PPG. The Chicago Bulls have not played well on the road, going 8-10 overall. Chicago has lost three straight road games to teams with losing records in the Nets, 76ers and Bobcats.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Bulls and Pacers. The home team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings overall, which certainly shows that the Pacers should not be a home underdog in this contest. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Indiana is 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central division opponents. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Chicago won the first meeting at home this season, but the Pacers are 76-42 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points since 1996. Take Indiana Friday.
|01-13-11||Miami Heat v. Denver Nuggets +2.5||Top||102-130||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* Heat/Nuggets NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Denver +2.5
The Denver Nuggets have been one of the best home teams in the league all season. They are certainly relishing this opportunity to face the Miami Heat tonight. "I think everybody's been waiting for this game and had it circled," point guard Ty Lawson told the Nuggets' official website. "We're ready for this game." Lebron James may not play tonight after spraining his ankle in Miami's 111-105 road loss at the Los Angeles Clippers last night. "There's no damage, I got an X-ray after the game," said James, who finished with 27 points. "The doctor told me it's day-to-day so I'll see how I feel Thursday. I don't have to be a hero in the regular season if I'm not close to 100 percent." James is listed as questionable tonight.
Whether or not James goes, I still like Denver's chances of winning here tonight. The Nuggets are 16-4 at home this season, scoring a league-best 109.1 PPG while outscoring opponents by 7.1 PPG. This is a very tough spot for the Heat playing their second of a back-to-back after a hard-fought loss against the Clippers Wednesday. The Heat are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss. The Nuggets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. The Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Miami is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Denver. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings in this series. Roll with Denver Thursday.
|01-12-11||Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 v. Golden State Warriors||115-110||Loss||-110||10 h 49 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are starting to round into form since Andrew Bynum has returned. They are looking like the defending NBA champs after coasting through the first couple months of the season. The Lakers are 7-1 in their last 8 games overall with their last two wins coming by 22 against the Knicks and 55 against the Cavaliers. Golden State is no match for the Lakers, and that has been proven time and time against over the last few years.
The Lakers are 11-0 in their last 11 meetings with the Warriors dating back to 2008. They have won nine of those eleven contests by 6 points or more. These teams have met twice already this season, with the Lakers coming out on top 107-83 on 10/31 and 117-89 on 11/21 for 24 and 28-point victories, respectively. With the way they are playing right now and having Andrew Bynum at full strength, they Lakers will run this winning streak to 12 games and win this one by 6 or more once again. The Lakers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. Take Los Angeles Wednesday.
|01-12-11||Orlando Magic -3.5 v. New Orleans Hornets||Top||89-92||Loss||-110||7 h 19 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -3.5
The Orlando Magic are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Orlando looks for a franchise-record 10th straight win Wednesday night when it visits the New Orleans Hornets. The Magic fell to a disappointing 16-12 on Dec. 21 after a loss to Dallas, just days after acquiring Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas in two separate trades in hopes of turning the team around. It didn't take long. Each of those newcomers were among seven Orlando players to score in double figures Saturday, and Turkoglu set a career high with 17 assists in a 117-107 road win over the Mavericks. Orlando (25-12) tied a team record with its ninth consecutive victory, also achieved in 1994 and 2001.
Not only are the Magic 9-0 in their last nine games, they are also a superb 8-1 ATS. Orlando has won by an average of 13.9 points during the win streak, scoring 110 or more six times. They have won each game by 8 or more points. Getting them as a small favorite here is another gift that I'll gladly take advantage of. New Orleans is just 11-15 in their last 26 games overall after a fast start to the season. The Hornets are 1-8 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. You can chalk up a 10th straight win for Orlando and likely by 8 points or more once again. Roll with the Magic Wednesday.
|01-11-11||Cleveland Cavaliers +15 v. Los Angeles Lakers||57-112||Loss||-110||10 h 56 m||Show|
15* Cavs/Lakers NBA Tuesday BAILOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers +15
The Cleveland Cavaliers are showing perhaps their best value of the entire season Tuesday when they travel to face the Los Angeles Lakers. There's no denying that it has been a disappointing season thus far for Cleveland to say the least, but they will have no problem getting up to face the defending champion Lakers. After winning 6 of their last 7 overall, the Lakers are once again overvalued and now is the time to fade them. Due to Cleveland's 10-game losing streak, the betting public is off of them and that's the reason they are showing such great value here tonight.
Cleveland has only been beaten once by more than 15 points during their 10-game skid, and once in their last 13 games overall. The Lakers always tend to play down to their competition and they've had that problem for a few years now. They get up for the good teams but don't show up against teams they are supposed to dominate, simply feeling they are superior and even a mediocre effort will get them a victory. The Lakers are 26-56 ATS in their last 82 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. This trend really supports what I'm saying. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. Take Cleveland Tuesday.
|01-11-11||San Antonio Spurs v. Minnesota Timberwolves +7||Top||107-96||Loss||-110||8 h 7 m||Show|
25* NBA Revenge GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Timberwolves +7
The Minnesota Timberwolves take on the San Antonio Spurs for a fourth and final time this season. Minnesota will be out for serious revenge Tuesday considering they have lost each of the first 3 meetings to the Spurs, but each contest has gone right down to the wire to make those losses even more painful. The Spurs won on the road 113-109 (OT) on 11/24, 107-101 at home on 12/03 and 94-91 at home on 1/09. The Timberwolves covered the spread in all three games as they did not lose once by more than 6 points. This Minnesota team is much-improved this season and fully capable of knocking off the Spurs tonight. They will be more motivated for this game than any other they have played all season.
Minnesota has blown double-digit leads in the fourth quarter of two of their meetings this season, and have now dropped 15 straight to the Spurs. They keep coming closer and closer to beating them with each meeting and ending this streak, and I believe they finally get it done tonight. "It's pretty frustrating because we match up against them pretty well. We've taken them to three very very tight games; an overtime game," forward Kevin Love said. "We owe them one on Tuesday, hopefully we can get that one and not sulk on (Sunday's loss)." The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Roll with the Timberwolves Tuesday.
|01-10-11||Houston Rockets +8.5 v. Boston Celtics||108-102||Win||100||6 h 27 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets +8.5
This has been a very funny series between the Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics in the fact that the road team has dominated it. The road team is 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. Houston has won 3 of their last 4 meetings in Boston, with their only loss coming by 4 points. The Rockets are showing tremendous value tonight as a big road dog against a Celtics team that continues battling through injuries. These injuries are going to catch up to them.
Houston is 0-5 in their last 5 games, so that's a big reason why they are showing so much value here. Taking a closer look, I find that the Rockets have lost all 5 of those games against teams with winning records, and three of those losses came by 7 points or less. This team is very hungry for a win tonight to put an end to this losing streak, and they'll give Boston a run for their money. Boston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, winning just twice by more than 3 points. The road team is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall and Houston is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Boston. Take the Rockets Monday.
|01-09-11||Minnesota Timberwolves +12 v. San Antonio Spurs||91-94||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +12
Minnesota has already faced the San Antonio Spurs twice this season, losing a couple of hearbreakers. They lost on 11/24 at home in overtime by a final of 109-113, and lost on 12/03 at San Antonio by a final of 107-101. Minnesota has proven they can play with this team, and will be out for revenge Sunday when they travel to face what has been a very vulnerable Spurs team of late.
San Antonio is just 1-2 in their last 3 games, with their only victory coming at Indiana by 3 points where they had to come back from 11 points down in the 4th quarter to steal the victory. I see no way they win this game by double-digits Sunday, and would not be surprised to see Minnesota win it outright. The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Minnesota Sunday.
|01-08-11||Indiana Pacers +7 v. Atlanta Hawks||93-108||Loss||-110||9 h 20 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +7
I'll take the Pacers here playing pissed off after blowing an 11-point fourth quarter lead to the San Antonio Spurs last night, losing 87-90. Indiana is much better than their 14-19 record would indicate, but they have simply lost several close games all year. I am not at all concerned about the fact that they are playing back-to-back games here. Indiana players will be hungry to get right back on the court and make amends for their loss to the Spurs. Plus, this team is still well-rested as this is only their 2nd game in 6 days since they had four days off coming into last night's contest.
This play falls under a couple of systems. I'll play on road teams (INDIANA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less. This system is 35-12 (75%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. I'll play on road underdogs (INDIANA) - poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), after 2 straight games making 39% of their shots or worse. This system is 32-9 (78%) ATS since 1996. The Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games. Atlanta is only 6-11 ATS in all home games this season. Roll with the Pacers Saturday.
|01-07-11||Miami Heat -7 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||101-95||Loss||-105||8 h 55 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -7
The Miami Heat are rolling right now, and it's not time to jump off this money train just yet. Miami looks to stretch its road winning streak to 12 games Friday night as it opens a five-game trip that could leave it tied for the longest streak of success away from home in NBA history. The Heat (28-9) began their run Dec. 2 in LeBron James' much-anticipated return to Cleveland, the beginning of an 11-game road streak that's seen them shoot 50.5 percent and win by an average of 15.0 points.
The Heat have won 19 of 20 overall, a stretch of dominance Milwaukee (13-20) couldn't end Tuesday in Miami. The Bucks led 51-47 at halftime, but the Heat held Milwaukee to just 38 second-half points en route to a 101-89 win. Miami has won by double-digits in both meetings with the Bucks this season. The Heat come into this game on 2 days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go. The Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall, cashing 91% of the time. The Bucks have dropped 7 of their last 10 and are plagued by injuries right now. Roll with Miami Friday.
|01-07-11||San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 200||90-87||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Pacers UNDER 200
After back-to-back losses giving up 128 points to the New York Knicks and 105 points to the Boston Celtics, I look for the Spurs to clamp down defensively tonight and get back to playing San Antonio basketball. Even with those poor defensive efforts, the Spurs are yielding just 97.9 PPG this season. The Indiana Pacers have been playing excellent defense all season, allowing 97.6 PPG overall and 96.7 PPG at home. The Pacers haven't been great offensively though, scoring just 96.8 PPG this year.
The UNDER is 7-0 in Indiana's last 7 games overall where the Pacers and their opponents have combined to score 194 or less points in all seven contests. This play falls under a system that is 75-37 (67%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games. The Pacers are 23-9 to the UNDER in all games this season. Look for both teams to clamp it down defensively as they try and bounce back from losses. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|01-06-11||Denver Nuggets v. Sacramento Kings +5||102-122||Win||100||10 h 0 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Kings NBA on TNT BAILOUT on Sacramento +5
Sacramento catches the Denver Nuggets in a very tough spot tonight. Denver will be playing the second of a back-to-back after losing 93-106 at the Los Angeles Clippers last night. Denver has depth concerns with Kenyon Martin doubtful and Ty Lawson and J.R. Smith both questionable to even play tonight. The Nuggets have been atrocious on the road all season, going 5-11 SU & 7-9 ATS while giving up 105.7 PPG away from home.
Sacramento is playing much better of late, beating both Memphis and Phoenix at home in two of their last four games. Denver beat Sacramento 86-104 at home on January 1, so the Kings will also be playing with revenge in mind tonight getting to play the Nuggets twice within a week. The Kings are 23-4 SU & 14-10-3 ATS in their last 27 home meetings with the Nuggets. The home team is 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series, with the Kings going 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three home meetings with the Nuggets. Denver is 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. Take Sacramento Thursday.
|01-05-11||Golden State Warriors +6.5 v. New Orleans Hornets||110-103||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +6.5
The Golden State Warriors are showing solid value tonight when they travel to face the New Orleans Hornets. I look for the Warriors to learn from their mistakes in the past two games after blowing halftime leads against both the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic, two teams they proved they could play with but couldn't put away in the second half. Getting David Lee back in the line-up tonight will help, as he is a key players on this Golden State team.
The Warriors have been a thorn in the side of the New Orleans Hornets, going 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. In their past 6 meetings, Golden State has only lost to the Hornets once by more than 6 points. The Warriors are 20-5 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 0-9 ATS after allowing 80 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference foes. Take Golden State Wednesday.
|01-05-11||San Antonio Spurs v. Boston Celtics -2||Top||103-105||Push||0||7 h 17 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2
The San Antonio Spurs are in a very tough spot tonight when they travel to face the Boston Celtics. The Spurs put a lot of energy into trying to take down the New York Knicks last night in a game that was close throughout. San Antonio would ultimately fall by a final of 115-128 in an absolute shootout. Obviously they were not the ones controlling the pace as they were forced to run with the Knicks all night. Now they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back against the Boston Celtics, who are the best team in the East at 26-7.
Boston is 14-2 at home this year, winning by 7.5 PPG. The Celtics are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Spurs. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Boston is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss. The Celtics are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. San Antonio is 4-13 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Boston takes advantage of a tired Spurs team tonight. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.
|01-04-11||Toronto Raptors v. Chicago Bulls -8||91-111||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -8
The Chicago Bulls are playing some of the best basketball in the NBA over the past month. Chicago is 13-2 in their last 15 games overall, and they've won 4 straight home games all by 9 points or more. The Bulls should have no problem covering this 8-point spread at home tonight against the lowly Toronto Raptors. Toronto is just 11-22 this season, including 4-12 on the road where they are getting beat by an average of 6.3 PPG. The Raptors are 3-11 in their last 14 games overall, with each of their last six losses coming by 9 points or more.
The Bulls are 14-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 9.7 PPG. Chicago has won each of their last two meetings with Toronto by 16 and 17 points, respectively. The Raptors are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Toronto is 20-41 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The Raptors are 17-35 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Chicago Tuesday.
|01-04-11||San Antonio Spurs v. New York Knicks UNDER 209||115-128||Loss||-110||7 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Spurs/Knicks UNDER 209
When looking at recent meetings between San Antonio and New York, it's easy to see why I'm on the UNDER tonight. New York and San Antonio have combined to score 198 or less points in 7 of their last 8 meetings, and the only game that saw more than that was an overtime game in which it was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation. These teams met twice last year, with final combined scores of 184 and 183 points, respectively.
San Antonio and their opponents have combined to score 192 or less points in 4 straight games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 24-9 in Spurs last 33 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 home games. San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|01-03-11||Golden State Warriors v. Orlando Magic -10.5||90-110||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -10.5
I'll take the Magic tonight in what should be an absolute blowout over the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors look to be without their two best post players Monday, which paves the way for the Magic and Dwight Howard to get plenty of easy points in the paint. Both David Lee and Andris Biedrins are doubtful tonight, and without them the Warriors have no answer for Howard. Golden State is just 5-14 on the road this season, giving up a ridiculous 106.3 PPG.
Orlando is on a roll right now, and it's looking more and more like they got the best end of the blockbuster trade they pulled off a couple weeks back. The Magic are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. They come in on 2 days' rest and will be ready to run their winning streak to six against the depleted Warriors. Orlando is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with Golden State overall, and 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings. The Warriors are 3-14 ATS in road games after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots over the last 3 seasons. Golden State shot well last time out, but still lost at Miami by giving up 114 points. Take the Magic Monday.
|01-02-11||Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5||85-100||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -3.5
I know the Blazers have some injury issues, but they remain one of the best home teams in the league and have proven they have enough depth to overcome the injuries. There is some value here with this line simply because they are missing a few players. Portland has gone 9-5 over their last 14 games so they are playing solid basketball over the past month. The Blazers are 11-3 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.9 PPG.
Portland is scoring 98.5 PPG and allowing 91.6 PPG at home where they have had one of the best advantages in the league over the last few seasons. Houston is 6-11 on the road this season where they give up a ridiculous 107.3 PPG. I'll gladly back the better defensive team with my money, as Portland allows 15.7 PPG less at home than Houston does on the road. The home team is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings in this series, so obviously home-court advantage has played a huge role in deciding the outcome. Bet Portland Sunday.
|12-31-10||Golden State Warriors v. Charlotte Bobcats -3||96-95||Loss||-105||2 h 37 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -3
The Charlotte Bobcats are playing much better basketball since making a coaching change. They have won back-to-back games and look to continue their dominance over the Golden State Warriors tonight. Charlotte is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Golden State, including back-to-back double-digit victories both coming last season. The Bobcats play defense and the Warriors do not, which is a big reason why they own this team.
Golden State is allowing 106.5 PPG and 47% shooting on the road while Charlotte is giving up 96.4 PPG and 43% shooting at home. The Warriors are only putting up 98.9 PPG on the road where they are 4-13 SU this season. Charlotte owns a winning home record this year and as just 3-point favorites, are showing excellent value tonight. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with Golden State. Roll with Charlotte Friday.
|12-30-10||New York Knicks v. Orlando Magic -7||103-112||Win||100||5 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA on TNT Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7
The Magic were averaging 7.4 fastbreak points per game when they made the big trade on Dec. 18. The team has averaged 17.5 fastbreak points per game since Arenas, Earl Clark, Richardson and Turkoglu started playing for the squad. Orlando has gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games while winning each time by 8 points or more. They beat the Spurs, Celtics, Nets and Cavs all by an average of 15.3 PPG. The Knicks have come back down to earth, losing 4 of their last 6 overall. They went on a big run earlier this season, but that was all against weak competition.
Amare Stoudemire is having a big year, but he will struggle trying to shoot over Dwight Howard, the best big man in the league today. The Knicks will have to rely on finding points elsewhere, and it simply won't be enough to keep them in this ball game. The Magic are 7-1 (88%) ATS in their last 8 Thursday games. This play also falls under a system that is 36-13 (74%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - off a road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). Bet the Magic Thursday.
|12-29-10||Golden State Warriors v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 202||93-103||Loss||-110||7 h 17 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Hawks OVER 202
When looking at previous meetings between these teams, it's easy to see why the final score of this contest will go OVER the number by game's end. Neither team has made many changes personnel-wise, so there's no reason to believe they will not play in another shootout tonight. Golden State and Atlanta have combined to score 209 or more points in 10 straight meetings dating back to 2005. The OVER is 9-2 in their last 11 meetings, and 11-2 in their last 13 meetings in Atlanta.
The Warriors have scored 109 or more points in 4 straight games. They are hitting on all cylinders offensively. Golden State still doesn't play much defense as they yield 106.3 PPG overall and 106.7 PPG on the road. Atlanta is 9-1 to the OVER in home games after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are 15-4 to the OVER in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|12-28-10||New York Knicks +9 v. Miami Heat||98-106||Win||100||7 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +9
The New York Knicks will be out for revenge tonight against a Miami Heat team that beat them less than two weeks ago on 12/17 by a final of 113-91. The Heat won't be up for this game after just playing the Lakers on Christmas Day and beating the defending champs handily. New York will be giving their best effort tonight, which is something they have been doing for quite some time. The Knicks are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games.
The Knicks have actually been playing their best basketball on the road where they are 10-5 SU & 12-3 ATS this season. The Heat are just 5-10 ATS at home this season. Miami is 1-9 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The Knicks are 11-1 ATS as a road underdog this season. New York is 23-7 ATS revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more since 1996. Roll with the Knicks Tuesday.
|12-27-10||Philadelphia 76ers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 205||95-110||Push||0||10 h 32 m||Show|
15* 76ers/Warriors NBA Monday Night BAILOUT on OVER 205
This is a very low total for a Warriors home game. I'll gladly take the value and back the OVER in this contest as they host the Philadelphia 76ers. Golden State is scoring 104.8 PPG and allowing 106.7 PPG at home this season for an average combined score of 211.5 PPG. As you can see, there is some really nice value with this OVER tonight. Philly also allows over 100 PPG on the road.
Golden State is 23-11 to the OVER as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Warriors are 65-41 to the OVER in home games after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games since 1996. The OVER is 37-15 in Warriors last 52 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 44-20 in Warriors last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The OVER is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Golden State. Roll with the OVER Monday.
|12-26-10||Atlanta Hawks v. New Orleans Hornets -4||86-93||Win||100||7 h 41 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Hornets -4
The Hornets have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA this season, and should have no problem taking care of the Atlanta Hawks by 5 points or more Sunday. The Hornets are 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS at home this season, scoring 97.8 PPG and allowing 90.1 PPG while outscoring opponents by 7.7 PPG.
The Hornets are 40-18 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive non-conference games since 1996. New Orleans is 40-19 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better since 1996. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference foes. The Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Roll with New Orleans Sunday.
|12-25-10||Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers -2||96-80||Loss||-110||25 h 22 m||Show|
15* Heat/Lakers ABC Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles -2
Getting the Lakers as just a 2-point favorite Saturday is like giving money away. Los Angeles has had 3 days of rest to prepare for the Miami Heat, and that will prove to be a big factor tonight. Miami played a hard-fought game two nights ago against the Phoenix Suns and they come in on only 1 days rest. The distractions from Christmas season will certainly take their toll on the Heat in this one, while the extra rest has given the Lakers time to take care of the issues that arrise for an NBA player during Christmas. They will be 100% focused today.
Coming off a loss like the one they suffered against the Bucks last time out, the Lakers will respond in a big way. Obviously they were looking ahead to this game, which is only human nature. Los Angeles has an on/off switch and they have the ability to turn it "On" whenever they want to. This play falls under a system that is 30-9 (77%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). Roll with the Lakers Saturday.
|12-25-10||Chicago Bulls v. New York Knicks -1.5||95-103||Win||100||20 h 7 m||Show|
15* Bulls/Knicks ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on New York -1.5
The Knicks are showing tremendous value at home Saturday as they host the Chicago Bulls. New York has gone 14-4 in their last 18 games overall and really should be a bigger favorite today with how well they've been playing. The Knicks are really cashin in at the pay window where they are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games. Certainly Chicago is playing well also, but they are not showing value at all here playing as the road team.
This play also falls under a system that is 23-6 (79%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. New York is 14-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet New York Saturday.
|12-23-10||San Antonio Spurs v. Orlando Magic -2.5||101-123||Win||100||8 h 58 m||Show|
15* NBA on TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Orlando Magic -2.5
The San Antonio Spurs come into this game very tired, and it will show on the floor Thursday. The Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days. They had to put together a big 4th quarter comeback to beat the Nuggets last night, and that effort will really take a lot out of them. I know the Spurs are on a 10-game winning streak, but that comes to an end tonight. Each of their last five wins have come by single-digits.
Orlando comes into this game highly motivated for a victory. The Magic have lost 8 of their last 9 overall, and clearly want to stop the bleeding and stop it now. Orlando has played with the new players they received in their blockbuster trade over the past two games. These new additions have not produced yet, but in their third game with their new team the likes of Arenas, Richardson and Turkoglu should be much more effective tonight now that they are becoming more familiar with Stan Van Gundy's system. The Magic are 9-5 at home this season, winning by 8.5 PPG. The Magic are 16-5 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game since 1996. Orlando is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. Roll with the Magic Thursday.
|12-22-10||Denver Nuggets v. San Antonio Spurs -7.5||103-109||Loss||-110||8 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -7.5
Carmelo Anthony is out tonight for the Denver Nuggets, and they simply aren't the same team without him in the line-up. Anthony is the best pure scorer in the NBA and the Nuggets don't have enough scorers around him to pick up the slack. San Antonio has won 9 straight games and they continue rolling tonight. The Spurs are also 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Nuggets. Denver is just 4-8 on the road this season where opponents are scoring 104.2 PPG and shooting 48.1% from the floor.
This play falls under a system that is 85-38 (69%) since 1996. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, playing with 3 or more days rest. The Spurs are 15-2 at home this season, winning by an average of 10.1 PPG. Denver is 1-10 ATS in road games after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Spurs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take San Antonio Wednesday.
|12-21-10||New Jersey Nets +6 v. Memphis Grizzlies||101-94||Win||100||7 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +6
This play falls under a system that is 60-26 (70%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 2 days rest. New Jersey is playing much better of late, as they have not lost by more than 7 points in any of their last 5 games. That 7-point loss came against the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers.
The Nets are 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Grizzlies overall. Whenever you find Memphis in the role of the favorite like this, it's normally a wise move to fade them. The Grizzlies are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite. Memphis is 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Nets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Memphis is 0-9 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Nets Tuesday.
|12-20-10||Utah Jazz v. Cleveland Cavaliers +7||101-90||Loss||-110||5 h 24 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7
Utah is just 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Asking them to win by 7 on the road here is simply too much to ask in my opinion. The Jazz are scoring 97.2 PPG and allowing 96.9 PPG on the road this season, playing teams almost dead even. With the way Cleveland plays defense at home, it not only gives them a great chance to cover but also to win outright. The Cavaliers are allowing 96.8 PPG at home this year.
Cleveland is 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Jazz. This play falls under a system that is 47-17 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games. The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Take the Cavaliers Monday.
|12-19-10||Houston Rockets -3.5 v. Sacramento Kings||102-93||Win||100||5 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -3.5
I like the Rockets quite a bit here Sunday as they take on the lowly Sacramento Kings. Houston is hitting their stride, in the midst of their best run of the season. The Rockets are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Kings are 5-19 on the season and 1-12 in their last 13 games overall, also going 4-9 ATS in the process.
The Rockets have won each of their last two meetings with the Kings by double-digits, including a 118-105 victory over Sacramento in their lone meeting this year. Sacramento is 0-8 ATS versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game this season. The Kings are 1-13 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season. Sacramento is 1-11 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. Bet the Rockets Sunday
|12-17-10||Memphis Grizzlies v. Houston Rockets -2.5||87-103||Win||100||7 h 59 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -2.5
The Houston Rockets are starting to round into form, going 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. This team is learning how to play without Yao Ming and Aaron Brooks, and they are getting comfortable with one another. Houston has been virtually unstoppable at home of late, and that's why I'm all over them tonight as a mere 2.5-point home favorite over the Grizzlies.
The Rockets are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. Houston is 23-5 SU in their last 28 home meetings with the Grizzlies. The Rockets are also 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Memphis overall. There is simply too much to like about Houston at home tonight to lay off this game. Bet the Rockets Friday.
|12-17-10||Los Angeles Clippers v. Detroit Pistons -2.5||Top||109-88||Loss||-105||6 h 60 m||Show|
25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Pistons -2.5
This is about as easy as it gets tonight folks. Knowing that the Los Angeles Clippers are 0-11 on the road while getting outscored by 11.2 PPG this season makes this play so easy it's almost unfair. Detroit is a respectable 6-6 at home this season where they are clearly playing their best basketball. In fact, they are scoring 102.1 PPG at home this year while they are averaging less than 90 PPG on the road.
Detroit is 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home meetings with the Clippers. Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS after a game forcing opponent to commit 5 or less turnovers since 1996. The Clippers are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with the Pistons Friday.
|12-17-10||Miami Heat v. New York Knicks OVER 210||113-91||Loss||-110||5 h 30 m||Show|
15* Heat/Knicks ESPN Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 210
New York is hitting on all cylinders offensively right now. They have scored 100 or more points in each of their last 9 games overall, and are putting up 108.8 PPG this season. Defensively, they still aren't getting it done while allowing 107.0 PPG overall and 108.0 PPG at home. Miami has scored 101 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games and the Heat have now won 10 straight games since James and Wade finally learned how to play together.
These teams are used to playing in shootouts even before the "Big 3" made their way to South Beach. The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between the Heat and Knicks. The OVER is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Knicks are 5-0 to the OVER in their last 5 home games. Take the OVER in this contest Friday.
|12-16-10||San Antonio Spurs -1 v. Denver Nuggets||113-112||Push||0||9 h 50 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Nuggets NBA Thursday Night BAILOUT on San Antonio -1
San Antonio, owners of the best record in the NBA at 21-3, are clearly the play tonight as they take on the Denver Nuggets. The Spurs are on a mission this season to return to relevance, and they are doing a great job of it by breezing through the competition. San Antonio is healthy right now, which is a big reason for their resurgence. The same cannot be said for the Nuggets, who will be playing for at least a week without starting point guard Chauncey Billups due to a wrist injury. Not to mention both Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin remain out.
The Spurs are 8-1 SU & 6-2 ATS on the road this season, outscoring opponents by 8.1 PPG. Denver is 14-31 ATS after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 8-20 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Spurs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Nuggets are 5-23-5 ATS in their last 33 games following a ATS win. Denver is 5-17-4 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Denver, and the road team is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. Take San Antonio Thursday.
|12-15-10||Charlotte Bobcats +8.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies||Top||80-113||Loss||-110||7 h 48 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +8.5
Memphis has not been this big of a favorite all season. The most the Grizzlies have been favored by is 7 points, and the clear value in this game is with the underdog Bobcats Wednesday. The Grizzlies are just 11-14 on the season. Charlotte's ability to get after it on the defensive end gives them an excellent chance in every game. The Bobcats allow 96.7 PPG this season.
Charlotte has been on a nice UNDERS run here of late, which means they are playing well defensively. The Bobcats are a perfect 11-0 ATS after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Grizzlies are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Charlotte Wednesday.
|12-14-10||Atlanta Hawks v. Detroit Pistons +5||Top||80-103||Win||100||7 h 47 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +5
I'll take the Pistons Tuesday showing tremendous value at home. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and 8 of the last 10. In those 10 meetings, the road team won only twice by four points each time. So getting the home team +5 here is clearly the right play. The Pistons will be hungry to hit the floor tonight after blowing a 16-point fourth quarter lead in their last game to lose to the Raptors. They've had 2 days' rest to think about it and will come back very determined tonight.
Atlanta is not at full strength, but the betting public along with odds makers are treating the Hawks like they are fully healthy. Leading scorer Joe Johnson is out until mid January with an elbow injury. The Pistons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southeast division foes. Detroit is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 0.5-5.0. The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 0.5-5.0. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take Detroit Tuesday.
|12-13-10||New Orleans Hornets +11.5 v. Miami Heat||84-96||Loss||-100||6 h 15 m||Show|
15* Hornets/Heat NBA Monday No-Brainer on New Orleans +11.5
The Miami Heat are overvalued right now due to their 8-game winning streak coming into this contest. The New Orleans Hornets are undervalued after losing 8 of their last 11. I'll take the value here in the Hornets who are still 14-9 on the season and have already beaten Miami 96-93 earlier this year. The Hornets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 meetings with Miami.
This is one team the Hornets have been absolutely dominant against through the years. New Orleans is 36-13 ATS in all meetings with Miami since 1992, including a perfect 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. This play falls under a system that is 25-6 (81%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games. Roll with the Hornets Monday.
|12-12-10||Portland Trail Blazers +8 v. San Antonio Spurs||78-95||Loss||-110||4 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Portland Trail Blazers +8
Portland is playing their best basketball of the season right now, and for them to be getting 8 points Sunday is an absolute gift from odds makers. The Blazers are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games, winning by at least 7 points each time against the Magic, Clippers and the Suns twice. San Antonio is off to the best start in their history, but as a result they are overvalued while the Blazers are undervalued after their slow start to the year.
Portland is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with San Antonio. This is just not a good match-up for the Spurs as the Blazers continue giving them fits time and time again, yet the odds makers are overlooking that today. Portland is a superb 26-12 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. This play also falls under a system that is 75-37 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
|12-10-10||Los Angeles Lakers -2 v. Chicago Bulls||Top||84-88||Loss||-110||6 h 6 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Bulls ESPN Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles -2
Getting the Lakers at this price is an absolute gift from odds makers. This is one team that the Lakers simply do not lose to, and I expect them to roll again tonight. The Lakers are 7-0 in their last 7 meetings with Chicago, including 9-1 in their last 10 meetings. Rarely will you get the Lakers at this kind of value, especially against a team they have owned.
This play also falls under a system that is 29-7 (81%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Bet the Lakers Friday.
|12-09-10||Orlando Magic v. Portland Trail Blazers +2.5||83-97||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
15* Magic/Blazers NBA on TNT Thursday BAILOUT on Portland +2.5
Getting points with the Portland Trail Blazers at home is an absolute gift tonight. Orlando is just getting over an illness that went through their entire team, and Magic players are not in tip-top shape after several have missed action over the last week. The Blazers get back starting point guard Andre Miller tonight after he served a one-game suspension. Portland has been one of the best home teams in the league over the last few seasons as the Rose Garden is one of the toughest places to play in the NBA.
The Blazers are 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season. Their defense has been tremendous at home, where they are allowing just 92.7 PPG. The Magic are just 2-7 ATS in nine road games this year and should not be favored tonight as they are scoring only 92.8 PPG away from home. The Magic are 1-9 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season. The Magic are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Portland is 32-14 ATS in their last 46 games as a home underdog. Take the Blazers Wednesday.
|12-08-10||Miami Heat -1 v. Utah Jazz||111-98||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
15* Heat/Jazz NBA Wednesday Night BAILOUT on Miami -1
The Miami Heat are a solid choice tonight to revenge an earlier overtime loss to the Utah Jazz. Miami led by 19 points in the third quarter, but Utah fought back to tie it in regulation despite being 8 points down with only 28 seconds to go. The Jazz eventually won 116-114 in overtime. The loss certainly leaves a sour taste in player's mouths and the Heat will be looking to return the favor tonight.
Miami is on a season-high 5-game winning streak since calling a player's only meeting after a 106-95 loss to the Dallas Mavericks. Not only are they winning, they are dominating with an average margin of victory of 17.2 PPG during this streak. Miami is allowing an average of 82.2 points on 37.7 percent shooting in its last five games. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Miami is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite. Bet Miami Wednesday.
|12-08-10||Denver Nuggets +7 v. Boston Celtics||Top||89-105||Loss||-110||5 h 23 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Celtics NBA on ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +7
Denver gets their second shot to earn head coach George Karl his 1,000th career win tonight. The Nuggets did fall short last night 98-100 to the Bobcats in their first attempt to help Karl reach this milestone. But it was their first loss in eight games as they had come into that contest on a 7-game winning streak. Denver is simply showing too much value here to pass up as they take on the Boston Celtics.
Boston is seriously banged up right now. Kendrick Perkins, Jermaine O'Neal and Delonte West all remain out and have been for a while, and starting PG Rajon Rondo is doubtful tonight. F Glen Davis and C Shaquille O'Neal are each listed as questionable. They will miss Rondo more than anyone, as the offense won't run as smoothly as it does with him in there. The Celtics are 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Boston is 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Celtics are 1-9 ATS in home games after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons. Take Denver Wednesday.
|12-07-10||Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers -2.5||Top||99-106||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5
I'll take the Blazers tonight showing excellent value as a small home favorite against the Phoenix Suns. Certainly it has not been the start to the season that the Blazers wanted at 9-11, but with their slow start has come some nice value on this squad. That's because they are still one of the most talented teams in the league, plus their home-court advantage is still one of the best in the NBA as well. The Blazers are 5-3 at home this year, allowing just 91.9 PPG.
Phoenix is 5-6 on the road this season, giving up a whopping 113.2 PPG. They clearly miss Amare Stoudemire and play no defense. The Suns are 5-17 ATS in road games after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The favorite is 18-8-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings. The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Roll with the Blazers Tuesday.
|12-07-10||Golden State Warriors +9 v. Dallas Mavericks||100-105||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +9
Fading the Dallas Mavericks at home has been a very prosperous move over the last few seasons. Time and time again Dallas is overvalued, and they actually play better basketball on the road than they do at home. The Mavericks are 14-34-3 ATS in their last 51 home games. This team is clearly overvalued right now due to their 9-game winning streak. Dallas is only outscoring opponents by 4.7 PPG at home this year.
Golden State is much-improved this season thanks to the addition of David Lee and the steady improvements of both Monta Ellis and Stephon Curry. The Warriors are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a S.U. loss. Dallas is 1-10 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 16-36-3 ATS in their last 55 games as a home favorite. The Warriors are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 meetings with Dallas, and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet Golden State Tuesday.
|12-06-10||Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 188||80-74||Win||100||5 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Magic UNDER 188
I certainly like this UNDER here tonight for a few different reasons. All you have to do is look at the history of these two teams when they meet up to realize that the UNDER is the right play. The UNDER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in this series. Each of the last 3 meetings have seen 182 or less combined points, and 7 of the last 10 meetings have seen 185 or less combined points. Orlando has a bug going through their entire team and as a result they have been sick and unable to play their best basketball. A few guys are returning tonight, including Dwight Howard, Mickael Pietrus and J.J. Redick. But Jameer Nelson is listed as doubtful with this illness, and without their point guard there to run the show the Magic certainly struggle offensively.
Orlando scored just 85 points in an 85-96 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last time out. The UNDER is 4-1 in Atlanta's last 4 games and they are playing without Joe Johnson for 4 to 6 weeks, who is their leading scorer. Without Johnson points are hard to come by in Atlanta, and they scored just 77 points in a 77-89 loss to the Heat last time out. Atlanta is 14-2 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 9-1 in Hawks last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 9-1 in Magic last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|12-04-10||Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings +8||105-103||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +8
The Sacramento Kings are showing their best value of the season tonight as a big home underdog to the Dallas Mavericks. This is the ideal letdown spot for the Mavs, who just beat the Utah Jazz last night on National TV. Dallas came back from a halftime deficit to win on TNT. This team is not going to be motivated to face the Kings tonight, who are coming off a blowout loss to the Lakers. Certainly it's easier for Sacramento to come back tonight following a blowout loss than it is for Dallas to match their effort from a national tv victory.
3 of the last 4 meetings in this series were decided by 8 points or less. The Kings are fully healthy right now, and though they are off to a slow start this team still has the talent to compete with anyone on any given night. This play falls under a system that is 57-23 (71%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on any team (SACRAMENTO) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 against opponent after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread. The value here is too good to pass up. Roll with the Kings Saturday.
|12-03-10||New Jersey Nets +7 v. Charlotte Bobcats||84-91||Push||0||7 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +7
The New Jersey Nets are showing solid value as a 7-point underdog to the Charlotte Bobcats Friday. The way Charlotte is playing this season, they should not be this heavily favored against any team in the league. The Bobcats are just 6-12 this season including 3-5 at home. The Nets are 7-4 in their last 11 trips to Charlotte and will certainly put up a fight tonight.
The Nets are 8-1 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. New Jersey is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. The Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Obviously Charlotte has not fared well with spread in this range because they simply are not an elite team. The clear value in this game is with the underdog. Take New Jersey Friday.
|12-02-10||Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 190.5||118-90||Loss||-110||8 h 31 m||Show|
15* Heat/Cavaliers NBA on TNT Total ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 190.5
In easily the most anticipated game of the young NBA season, I expect a defensive battle tonight in Cleveland as Lebron James returns home. There's no question that each team will be very nervous for this game, which will lead to poor offensive performance. But the defensive effort will certainly be there with all of Cleveland watching and millions around the world tuning in.
The UNDER is 7-2 in Cleveland's 9 home games this season. The Cavs are scoring 91.3 PPG and allowing 94.9 PPG at home this year. Miami's problems this season have been on offense, not on defense. The Heat are scoring 93.7 PPG on the road this year while allowing 93.7 PPG away from home. The Heat are a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in road games after allowing 80 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER Thursday.
|12-01-10||Indiana Pacers +8 v. Utah Jazz||88-110||Loss||-110||8 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +8
The Indiana Pacers are one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. Indiana is 9-7 SU & 10-6 ATS this year, outscoring opponents by 3.9 PPG. The Pacers have been doing most of their damage on the road, where they are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season. In fact, they have won 4 straight road games over the Heat, Lakers, Kings and Cavaliers. They even beat the all-mighty Heat by 16 points on the road. The biggest difference in this team has been their effort on defense, where head coach Jim O'Brien finally has his team buying in. "This has been three years of hard work," O'Brien said. "This (turnaround) didn't just all of a sudden happen." The Pacers are giving up just 96.4 PPG this season.
A healthy Mike Dunleavy, the addition of Darren Collison and the emergence of Roy Hibbert have made a huge difference as well. Danny Granger remains a stud, and scored 37 points last night in a 107-98 win at Sacramento. Granger scored 44 in his last meeting with the Utah Jazz, a 122-106 win for the Pacers. Indiana is 47-26 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road favorite since 1996. The Pacers are 21-9 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. Little rest does not effect this young team. That's really the case when you consider the Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. Roll with Indiana Wednesday.
|12-01-10||Memphis Grizzlies v. Atlanta Hawks -6||Top||109-112||Loss||-110||6 h 18 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -6
The Atlanta Hawks are a streaky team this season. They opened the season with 6 straight wins, and went on to lose 7 of their next 9 overall. But this team is back on track, going a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall with blowout wins by 20, 9 and 18 points. I'll ride them to make it 4 straight victories tonight as they host the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are in a huge letdown spot here. They just beat the defending champion Lakers last night 98-96, and there's no way they can match the effort they put into that game neither physically nor mentally. Atlanta comes in on 2 days' rest and will be the much fresher team tonight.
The Hawks have owned the Grizzlies. Atlanta is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with Memphis, winning and covering 89% of the time. They beat the Grizzlies 119-104 on the road in their season-opener, and have now won three straight meetings by 13 points or more. In fact, they have won 7 of their 9 meetings all by 8 points or more. The Grizzlies are 2-6 on the road this season, getting outscored by 5.7 PPG. The Grizzlies are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with the Grizzlies. Bet the Hawks Wednesday.
|11-30-10||San Antonio Spurs -4 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||118-98||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4
The San Antonio Spurs own the best record in the league, and they own the Golden State Warriors. San Antonio is off to a 14-2 start this season, going 10-5-1 ATS in the process. They have won 13 of their last 14 and are finally healthy this season. This is a team that is very motivated as the Lakers have won the last two NBA titles, and they want to get back to their glory days where they were the kings of the NBA. A game against the Warriors tonight won't slow down their momentum. San Antonio is 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Golden State, winning 7 of those contests by 5 points or more. Golden State is just 1-5 in their last 6 games overall, losing by 5 or more points in each of their losses.
This play falls under a system that is 47-18 (72%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. San Antonio is scoring a whopping 107.2 PPG this season while allowing 98.9 PPG. Golden State still doesn't play any defense, yielding 105.8 PPG this year. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Roll with the Spurs Tuesday.
|11-29-10||New Orleans Hornets v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 200||89-95||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hornets/Thunder UNDER 200
The Hornets and Thunder are two tired teams, and fatigue usually produces low scoring games more times than not. Both New Orleans and Oklahoma City will each be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight and their second of a back-to-back. The UNDER is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Hornets last 4 road games. The UNDER is 12-4 in Thunder last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
The Hornets are scoring just 96.5 PPG this season overall, including 92.7 PPG on the road. Defensively, New Orleans has been one of the best units in the league giving up 92.2 PPG overall and 90.1 PPG on the road. So in 8 road games this season, New Orleans and their opponents are combining to score an average of 182.8 PPG. New Orleans and Oklahoma City have combined to score 198 or less points in 4 of their last 5 meetings, and 202 or less in all five. Roll with the UNDER in this contest Monday.
|11-29-10||Washington Wizards v. Miami Heat -11.5||94-105||Loss||-110||7 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -11.5
The Miami Heat clearly are off to a slow start at 9-8, and after their loss to the Mavericks two nights ago the team called a player's only meeting. I believe they will rally tonight after this meeting, and put together their most dominant performance of the season. The Washington Wizards are just 5-10 this season and have a few injury issues that are holding them back. Both John Wall and Al Thornton are questionable to play tonight.
The Wizards 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road this season, losing by an average of 16.7 PPG. Knowing this alone has the Heat showing tremendous value tonight. Miami is 7-3 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 10.0 PPG. The Wizards are 10-29 ATS in their last 39 vs. NBA Southeast division foes. Miami is 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 meetings with Washington, and James, Wade and Bosh rally the troops to get on track this season starting tonight against the Wizards. Take Miami Monday.
|11-26-10||New Orleans Hornets v. Portland Trail Blazers -4||97-78||Loss||-110||7 h 18 m||Show|
15* Hornets/Blazers NBA Friday Night BAILOUT on Portland -4
Brandon Roy and Joel Pryzbilla are each expected to return for the Blazers, who are getting closer to full strength finally. This team is still very deep, and should get a big boost emotionally with the return of Roy and Pryzbilla. These are two glue guys who lead by example. The New Orleans Hornets are overvalued after their fast start to the season, but reality is starting to set in as they've lost back-to-back games to the Clippers and Jazz.
The Trail Blazers are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Trail Blazers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series, and the Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with New Orleans. The Hornets are 7-24 ATS after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games playing on 1 days rest. Take Portland Friday.
|11-24-10||Philadelphia 76ers v. Toronto Raptors -5.5||90-106||Win||100||7 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on Toronto Raptors -5.5
The Philadelphia 76ers are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. The 76ers are 3-11 this season and Elton Brand is facing a possible suspension tonight after getting ejected from a hard foul last night in their 114-116 overtime loss at Washington. So Philly will be playing the second of a back-to-back here off an overtime game, which is a tough task for any team in the league. Toronto looks to keep playing great basketball by winning their 4th straight game. They have 3 straight wins over the 76ers, Rockets and Celtics. The Raptors have had 2 days' rest coming into this one.
Toronto is now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Philly after beating the 76ers 94-86 on the road the other night. This play also falls under a system that is 76-36 (68%) since 1996. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. The 76ers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Take Toronto Wednesday.
|11-23-10||Detroit Pistons +9.5 v. Dallas Mavericks||84-88||Win||100||7 h 6 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5
Fading the Dallas Mavericks as a home favorite over the last few years has been a very prosperous move. The Mavericks are 14-36-3 ATS in their last 53 home games, including 13-35-3 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite. Dallas is also 6-21-2 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Worse yet, the Mavericks are 4-20-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Time and time again Dallas is overvalued, and that's the case again tonight.
Detroit is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Pistons certainly aren't the same team they once were, but they are consistently undervalued on the road. Detroit is playing much better after a slow start to the season, going 5-3 SU in their last 8 games overall. In their last 9 games, the Pistons have gone 7-2 ATS and for the season Detroit is 9-4 ATS in 13 games. That makes them one of the best covering teams in the league this year. Dallas is just 4-3 SU & 1-4-2 ATS in home games this season. The Mavs are only outscoring their 7 opponents at home by 1.7 PPG. Dallas is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Pistons Tuesday.
|11-22-10||Minnesota Timberwolves +10 v. Oklahoma City Thunder||107-117||Push||0||6 h 1 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Timberwolves +10
The Oklahoma City Thunder are in for a monster letdown tonight against Minnesota. OKC has won their last two games by 5 points and 1 point, respectively, despite playing without the services of star Kevin Durant. He is listed as questionable to play tonight with a lingering ankle injury, and Jeff Green is also questionable with a sprained ankle as well. Whether either plays or not, I do not see the Thunder winning this one by double-digits. They are exhausted right now as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days.
Minnesota comes into this one very fresh, having 2 days of rest since losing to the Lakers and this will be only their 2nd game in 5 days. Since Oklahoma City became a franchise in 2008, the Thunder have only beaten the Timberwolves once in 8 meetings by more than 8 points. Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games, only losing once by more than 6 points and that was to the defending champion Lakers. The Timberwolves are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Roll with Minnesota Monday.
|11-19-10||Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 v. New Orleans Hornets||101-108||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5
The New Orleans Hornets are way overvalued right now after their 9-1 start. They are being asked to win by double-digits tonight, and this is the biggest spread they've beeen asked to cover all season. They were also 9.5-point favorites against the Clippers, who are 1-11 this season. Cleveland is 5-5 this year and continues going under the radar since Lebron James took has talents to South Beach. But this Cavaliers team still has plenty of talent left in the cupboard, and they are actually playing better team basketball this year as they play with a chip on their shoulder.
The Cavs are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this season, playing their best basketball away from home. The Cavaliers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog, including 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Hornets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. New Orleans is just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 Friday games. I respect what the Hornets have done up to this point in the season, but now it's time to fade New Orleans tonight as they are clearly overvalued. Take the Cavaliers Friday.
|11-17-10||New Jersey Nets +10.5 v. Utah Jazz||88-98||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +10.5
The New Jersey Nets are playing very well on the road here of late, and they are getting way too many points tonight from the Utah Jazz. New Jersey is 2-0 in their last 2 road games, winning at Cleveland 95-87 and at the Los Angeles Clippers 110-96. This is a completely different team from the one we all saw last year, as new head coach Avery Johnson is getting the most out of his team. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and I like their chances of keeping this one within double-digits, possibly pulling off the upset.
The Utah Jazz are getting too much respect from the betting public as a result of their recent comeback victories, and odds makers are adjusting their lines accordingly. Utah went on a 5-game winning streak in which four times they came back from double-digit deficits to win games. But they didn't win any of those games by more than 10 points, and that's why New Jersey is showing so much value here tonight. This will be Utah's 4th game in 6 days, so this is a very tired team especially with the way they've had to come from behind to win games. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. New Jersey is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference. Utah is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Take the Nets Wednesday.
|11-16-10||Philadelphia 76ers v. Cleveland Cavaliers -2||93-101||Win||100||6 h 57 m||Show|
15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Cavaliers -2
I really like the Cavs at home tonight laying just two points to the lowly Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are just 2-8 this season, including 1-5 on the road. Philly will be playing without their best player in Andre Iguodala, who is out with an Achilles injury. The Cavs are coming off back-to-back losses, so they'll obviously be hungry to get back on the winning track tonight at home and get back to .500 on the season.
This play falls under a system that is 48-14 (77.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (CLEVELAND) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest. Not only are the Cavs playing on 2 days' rest, this will be only their second game in 6 days. So Cleveland is obviously going to be well-rested and ready to hit the floor tonight. Take the Cavs Tuesday.
|11-15-10||Denver Nuggets v. Phoenix Suns||94-100||Loss||-110||8 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets PK
The Phoenix Suns are in a very tough spot tonight, one that has me believing they will not show up to play Monday. Phoenix beat the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers Sunday 121-116 by shooting lights out from distance. The Suns made 22 3-point shots in the win, just one short of the NBA record for most 3-pointers made in a single game. Phoenix used a ton of energy in trying to fend off the Lakers, and they'll come out flat Monday when they get a visit from the Denver Nuggets.
This play falls under a system that is 63-25 (71.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home favorites (PHOENIX) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as an underdog. The Nuggets are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 3 or more days rest. So I'll gladly back the team playing on 3 days' rest rather than the team playing on no rest and their 3rd game in 4 days. Take the Nuggets Monday.
|11-12-10||Houston Rockets +4 v. Indiana Pacers||102-99||Win||100||5 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Brainer on Houston Rockets +4
The Rockets are showing excellent value tonight as an underdog to the Indiana Pacaers. Houston is off to a poor 1-6 start, and as a result this team is starting to get overlooked by the odds makers and the betting public. But this squad is much better than their record, and they've simply been dealt a brutal schedule to this point. This team is going to be very hungry and motivated to turn their season around, starting tonight in Indiana.
The Rockets are 90-50 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1996. So they have been great at bouncing back throughout the years. Better yet, Houston is off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Rockets are coming back to win these games by an average of 8.8 PPG. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take the Rockets Friday.
|11-11-10||Los Angeles Lakers -3 v. Denver Nuggets||112-118||Loss||-110||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -3
The Denver Nuggets are falling fast, and they no longer appear to be a contender in the Western Conference. There are reasons why Carmelo Anthony wants to leave, and one of the biggest is the fact that he does not think he can win a championship with the Nuggets. The Lakers have their number, and unless they can get through Los Angeles they cannot win a title. Denver is only 4-4 this season, and they've dropped back-to-back games including a 113-144 loss at Indiana last time out. That setback showed a lot about this team as they allowed Indiana to make 20-of-21 shots in a 54-point 3rd quarter.
The Lakers are clearly hungry in the early going as they're off to an 8-0 start for only the second time in team history, and are outscoring opponents by 11.5 PPG in the process. The Lakers boast the league's best 3-point shooting offense, making the deep ball at a 43.5% clip. The additions of Matt Barnes and Steve Blake have been overlooked as these two are already playing key roles for the Lakers, and both can knock down the 3-ball. Denver is a tired team right now, and the Nuggets are only 8-20 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 4-16 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Take the Lakers Thursday.
|11-10-10||Charlotte Bobcats v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 194||101-96||Loss||-110||6 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Raptors UNDER 194
I'll take the UNDER in this game tonight between two poor offensive teams. Both squads are 1-6 this season, and a lot of it can be attributed to poor shooting. The Bobcats are scoring just 89.9 PPG this season on 45% shooting. They are a team that slows down the pace, which is another reason why I like this UNDER Wednesday. The Raptors are shooting just 43.9% this season, including 28.7% from 3-point range.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto. The Bobcats are scoring 84.7 PPG on the road this season while allowing 94.7 PPG away from home. The Raptors are giving up a respectable 96.0 PPG at home this year. The UNDER is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Better yet, the UNDER is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the UNDER Wednesday.
|11-10-10||Houston Rockets -3.5 v. Washington Wizards||91-98||Loss||-110||6 h 21 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets -3.5
The Washington Wizards are one of the worst teams in the league this season. Washington is 1-4, getting outscored by a whopping 11.6 PPG. Their lone win this season came at home in overtime against the 76ers, also one of the worst teams in the NBA. Sure, Houston is 1-5 this season, but they are much better than their record. That's indicated by the fact that they are only getting outscored by 0.7 PPG this season. Houston has several close losses to very good teams, including the Lakers, Spurs, Hornets and Nuggets.
The Rockets get their second win tonight in blowout fashion fresh off a 120-94 thumping of the Timberwolves. Houston has had 2 days' rest, which is important because that means they'll have Yao Ming playing tonight. Ming does not play in the second game of back-to-backs for precautionary reasons. The Rockets are 90-49 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1996. The Wizards are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Rockets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings with Washington, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road meetings with the Wizards. Take the Rockets Wednesday.
|11-09-10||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Los Angeles Lakers -16.5||94-99||Loss||-110||10 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -16.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves are clearly the worst team in the league this season. The Lakers have been the best team in basketball, starting 7-0 this season while outscoring opponents by 13.6 PPG this season. Minnesota is 1-6 this year, losing by an average of 17.1 PPG. This is a Timberwolves team that only has one player that would start on most other teams, and that's Michael Beasley. Even Beasley admitted earlier this season that his team was terrible.
Minnesota is 0-4 on the road this season, getting outscored by a mind-blowing 30.0 PPG. They have not stayed within 20 points of any opponent that they've faced away from home. I see no way they stay within this spread tonight against the best team in the league. The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. The Lakers have won 11 straight meetings with Minnesota. Take L.A. Tuesday.
|11-09-10||Detroit Pistons v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 189.5||78-100||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons/Blazers UNDER 189.5
These are two of the better defensive teams in the league this season. When they get together, a low-scoring game usually is the result. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings, with combined scores of 173, 181, 167, 168 and 190 points. Dating back even further, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings overall. Neither team is shooting the ball that well this season, with Detroit shooting 43.1% from the floor and Portland making only 44.9% of their shots.
Both teams have shot blockers inside which will make easy buckets hard to come by. The Pistons have Ben Wallace while the Blazers have Marcus Camby. Portland is 92-58 to the UNDER in home games off a road loss since 1996. The Blazers are 17-6 to the UNDER in home games after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Portland is also 28-12 to the UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 10-1 in Trail Blazers last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the UNDER Tuesday.
|11-08-10||Phoenix Suns +5 v. Memphis Grizzlies||99-109||Loss||-110||7 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Brainer on Phoenix Suns +5
No way should the Phoenix Suns be catching 5 points from the Memphis Grizzlies Monday. The Suns have played a brutal schedule early, getting through it at 3-3 with their only losses coming at the Lakers, at Portland and at home by 2 against San Antonio. They have road wins over the Jazz and Hawks, and also a home win over the Grizzlies already this season. The Grizzlies are 3-4 this season, with their only wins over the Kings, Timberwolves and Mavs. This team is not a worthy 5-point favorite tonight.
Phoenix is 44-14 SU & 31-24-3 ATS in their last 58 meetings with Memphis. That includes a 19-9 SU & 17-8-3 ATS mark in their last 28 visits to Memphis. The Grizzlies are 3-14 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Suns are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is 29-14 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, including 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Roll with the Suns Monday.
|11-05-10||Utah Jazz -1 v. Golden State Warriors||78-85||Loss||-105||12 h 23 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -1
After an ugly 0-2 start, the Jazz have looked like the Jazz of old over the last 2 games by beating the Thunder by 21 points on the road followed by a 17-point home win over the Raptors. It took them a couple games to get over life without Carlos Boozer, but they finally have by ripping off 120 points against OKC and 125 against Toronto. Now they face one of the league's worst defensive teams in the Golden State Warriors, who are allowing a whopping 108.7 PPG this season.
The Jazz of old would have owned the Warriors, and I expect to see the Jazz of old tonight. Utah is 45-13 SU in all meetings with the Warriors since 1996. The Jazz are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Warriors overall. Utah won all 3 meetings with Golden State last season by 11, 24 and 9 points. The Jazz are 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Jazz are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Warriors are 31-63-2 ATS in their last 96 games following a S.U. win. Roll with the Jazz Friday.
|11-05-10||New Jersey Nets +16.5 v. Orlando Magic||90-105||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +16.5
This line is set based off of the New Jersey Nets from last season, not the New Jersey Nets of 2010-11. This is a completely revamped franchise with a new owner, a new head coach and many new faces that are already making key contributions. The Nets are 2-2 thus far and should be 3-1 had they not blown a late lead to Charlotte last time out. I expect them to come out hungry tonight and prove that they can play with Orlando, which is actually something they've been doing for quite some time.
All 3 meetings between these teams last season were decided by 16 points or less. And that was the awful Nets team that nearly set a the league record for futility. Dating back even further, only once in the last nine meetings have the Nets lost to the Magic by more than 16 points, which was a 17-point loss. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Magic are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Friday games. The Nets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. With new faces such as Troy Murphay, Derrick Favors and Travis Outlaw, this team can compete with Orlando. Take the Nets Friday.
|11-04-10||Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers||107-106||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder were clearly looking ahead to this game when they got embarrassed last night by the Los Angeles Clippers. I fully expect the Thunder to bounce back in a big way tonight, likely pulling off the upset in Portland Thursday. The shots simply just have not fallen for OKC in the early going, as they are shooting just 39.3 percent from the floor. As we saw in the playoffs last year, this team is fully capable of competing for the Western Conference title. I expect the Thunder to be much more aggressive tonight in getting to the rim instead of settling for jump shots like they have thus far. I also expect a monster game from Kevin Durant, who went 6-of-24 last night and missed all 10 of his three-point shots.
The NBA's reigning scoring champ has shot 47.6 percent from the floor over the past two seasons, so it's only a matter of time for him. "I'm the leader of this team," Durant said. "Everybody follows me, so I didn't show up, the team didn't show up. ... No, it's not too early to worry. We've got to figure this out. Two games in a row, teams just did whatever they want on us. The offense didn't look too good. It's frustrating to watch as a player." He is averaging 30.7 PPG in his last 3 meetings with the Blazers, so a big bounce-back effort is highly likely. The Thunder are 9-1 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons, and 17-4 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. Bet Oklahoma City Thursday.
|11-03-10||Los Angeles Lakers -5 v. Sacramento Kings||112-100||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -5
The Lakers simply own the Sacramento Kings, and I see no reason for that to change tonight. Sacramento is a bit overvalued early in the season after their 3-1 start, which includes unimpressive wins all by 3 points or less over the Timberwolves, Raptors and Cavaliers. This is by far the stiffest test they have faced this season, as they also lost to the Nets.
The Lakers have been very impressive en route to their 4-0 start, going 3-1 ATS in the process. Their last two victories have come by 19 and 24 points. The Lakers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 meetings with Sacramento, with eight of those wins coming by six points or more. L.A. is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Sacramento. This play also falls under a system that is 23-4 (85%) since 1996. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points. Roll with the Lakers Wednesday.
|11-02-10||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Miami Heat UNDER 193||Top||97-129||Loss||-110||6 h 22 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Heat UNDER 193
The Miami Heat are a perfect 4-0 to the UNDER this season by playing tremendous defense. Opposing teams are scoring just 80.7 PPG and shooting 38.9% from the field on the Heat. I cannot see the Timberwolves, who have one of the worst offensive starting line-ups in the league, put up more than 80 on Miami tonight. It will take some time for Miami to gel offensively, which has been the case this season as the Heat are scoring 93.5 PPG and shooting 44.3% from the floor.
Both meetings last season between these teams went UNDER the number, with combined scores of 181 and 179 points. Miami is 18-6 to the UNDER off a road win over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are a perfect 11-0 to the UNDER after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Bet the UNDER Tuesday.
|11-01-10||Portland Trail Blazers v. Chicago Bulls -1||98-110||Win||100||7 h 11 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1
I like the Bulls at home tonight to hand the Portland Trail Blazers their first loss of the season. Portland is clearly an improved team this season, but they don't have an impressive win yet. Their victories have come against the Suns, Clippers and Knicks and this will easily be their toughest test yet. The Blazers are actually shooting better from 3-point range (45.3%) than from the field (45.1%), and obviously those numbers won't last. Portland isn't even a very good team from the perimeter.
The Blazers are also without Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla right now, which makes for a lack of depth inside. Chicago is playing great defense in the early going, holding opponents to 39.4% from the floor. But the Bulls are only shooting 21.9% from 3-point range, and obviously that won't last either as they are much better from the perimeter this season with the addition of Kyle Korver. I simply believe the Blazers are overvalued at this point in the season, and this line is a clear reflection of that. Bet the Bulls Monday.
|10-29-10||Orlando Magic +3.5 v. Miami Heat||Top||70-96||Loss||-105||7 h 19 m||Show|
20* Magic/Heat NBA on ESPN No-Brainer on Orlando +3.5
There has been a lot of trash talking in the media between the Heat and Magic, and they'll get a chance to go at each other tonight. Orlando has taken exception to the fact that Miami has been tagged the favorites to come out of the East even though the Magic reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year after making the NBA Finals in 2009. They just don't feel like they get the respect they deserve, and as a result this is a very hungry and dangerous team. Orlando put together a perfect preseason by going 7-0 and winning by more than 20 points per game on average. They routed Washington 112-83 in their season-opener as well.
"We're trying to take their heads off," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "Honestly, I'm sick of listening every hour about Miami - Miami that, how great they are, how big they are, what kind of record they gonna have,"' said backup center Marcin Gortat. Orlando is 14-3 in their last 17 meetings with Miami, including 7-2 in their last 9 road meetings. The Heat look good on paper, but they haven't proven they are worthy of all this hype yet. I believe Orlando is the better team at this point in the season and will certainly be the more motivated squad tonight. The Magic are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Bet Orlando Friday.
|10-29-10||Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 193||104-101||Win||100||6 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/76ers OVER 193
These are two guard-led teams which means that I expect a fast-paced shootout in Philadelphia tonight. Atlanta has made some changes to their offense this season to try and get the ball out on the fast break more to take advantage of their athleticism. They did it to perfection in their season-opener against Memphis, beating the Grizzlies 119-104 while shooting 52.5% from the field. They'll push the pace again tonight, and the 76ers are built to run with them with guys like Andre Iguodala.
In two meetings in 2010 between the Hawks and 76ers, they combined to score 203 and 205 points. With a total of only 193.5 tonight, the clear value is with the OVER. The OVER is 10-3 in Hawks last 13 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 9-3 in Hawks last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic division. The OVER is 5-0 in 76ers last 5 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 9-2 in 76ers last 11 vs. NBA Southeast division. Roll with the OVER Friday.
|10-28-10||Washington Wizards v. Orlando Magic -13.5||83-112||Win||100||7 h 4 m||Show|
15* Wizards/Magic NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Orlando -13.5
The Orlando Magic are flying under the radar this season with all of the hype going to the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference. But that's just how they like it. Orlando tips off their season with a blowout win over a depleted Washington Wizards team Thursday night. Washington is down two starters in G Gilbert Arenas who is out with an ankle injury, and F Josh Howard who is out until early December with a knee injury. That leaves John Wall and Andray Blatche as their only legitimate scorers.
The Magic have arguably the best starting line-up in the game and also plenty of depth on the bench. The Magic are fully healthy and they'll start Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard and the underrated Mickael Pietrus tonight. It's a mismatch across the board in Orlando's favor. The Magic are 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Wizards. They won their two most recent meetings with Washington by 14 and 27 points. The Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Take Orlando Thursday.
|10-27-10||Indiana Pacers v. San Antonio Spurs -8.5||109-122||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -8.5
The San Antonio Spurs are primed to make a run in the Western Conference this season. They are basically at full strength, with a starting line-up of Parker, Ginobli, Jefferson, Duncan and McDeyess. I believe they will be a force early in the season because they got off to a slow start last year due to injuries. It really cost them, as the Spurs had to settle for the No. 7 seed in the West. They beat Dallas in the opening round, but then were beaten out by Phoenix in the conference semis.
Indiana actually got worse in the offseason, which is hard to believe after a 32-50 campaign a year ago. The Pacers have a starting line-up of Josh McRoberts, Roy Hibbert, Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy and Darren Collison. They have little depth as well, and their best player in Granger is questionable tonight as he deals with an ankle injury. The Spurs are 178-131 ATS in their last 309 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, while the Pacers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Take the Spurs Wednesday.
|10-27-10||Miami Heat v. Philadelphia 76ers +7.5||97-87||Loss||-105||6 h 26 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5
The Miami Heat are already on a back-to-back situation after losing 80-88 to the Boston Celtics last night. They were dominated inside and on the boards last night, which will be a problem for them all season long. I like the 76ers in this spot in their home opener as it will obviously be a packed house with Lebron James and company coming to town.
The 76ers are going to be great this season against guard-led teams like the Heat. That's because they have a starting line-up of Jrue Holliday and Andre Iguodala in the backcourt, and Evan Turner and Louis Williams backing them up. Thaddeus Young is a stud at small forward, and this team is really build to run with anyone. I believe that former 76ers guard Doug Collins is a great coach who will get the most out of this team as he's posted a 332-287 record in his career as a head man. Roll with the 76ers Wednesday.
|10-26-10||Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||Top||110-112||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
25* NBA Season-Opening GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets +7.5
Kobe Bryant says his knee is only about 75% right now and it was clear through the entire season that he didn't have much elevation. Andrew Bynum will miss the first part of the season. This won't be the same Lakers team we saw in June when they won the NBA Finals. The Lakers are going to be a great team to fade in the early going, especially tonight against an Rockets team that is flying under the radar.
Houston welcomes back Yao Ming who is finally healthy, and he has a great nucleus around him with the likes of Louis Scola, Shane Battier, Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin. I believe that the Rockets are certainly a sleeper heading into the 2010-11 campaign. The Lakers struggled early in two meetings with the Rockets last season. Houston beat the Lakers 101-91 in L.A., and the Lakers beat the Rockets 103-102 in Houston. I see this one going down to the wire considering the Rockets are at full strength while the Lakers are far from it. Bet Houston Tuesday.
|10-26-10||Miami Heat -1.5 v. Boston Celtics||80-88||Loss||-110||7 h 46 m||Show|
15* Heat/Celtics NBA on TNT No-Brainer on Miami -1.5
Lebron James and company are hungry to show the world what they are made of, starting with this season-opener against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics are filled with old-timers that are past their prime, while the Heat have most of their players right in the middle of their prime. I know Boston will want to make a statement as well, but I just don't believe they have the talent to match up with this Heat team in 2010.
Boston went just 21-31 ATS at home last season. The Celtics weren't much better on the road, but they certainly were one of the worst home teams in the league against the spread. The Celtics also have two key players out, with Kendrick Perkins and Delonte West both missing time to start the season. It really takes away from their depth and when you have an old team like Boston, depth is very important. Take the Heat Tuesday.
|06-17-10||Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers -320||Top||79-83||Win||100||18 h 33 m||Show|
25* 2010 NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -320
I rarely take an NBA Money Line. That being said, I have 100% confidence the Lakers are going to win Game 7 on their home floor. Los Angeles fought all season to get home-court advantage, and this is where it will pay off just as it did in Game 6. Not only did the Celtics lose Game 6 in blowout fashion, but they lost their starting center in Kendrick Perkins. The Lakers height advantage is huge without him in there, and Boston is a much less physical team without him as well. Perkins suffered torn knee ligaments and head coach Doc Rivers has pronounced him out for the game. Look for L.A. to own the paint tonight, which is a key factor considering every team that has won the rebounding has won each game thus far.
No visiting team has won an NBA championship in Game 7 since the Washington Bullets did it in 1978. In the history of the NBA Finals, the home team has won 13 of 16 Game 7's. So as you can see, history is on our side. Los Angeles has been the better team all season, and they will prove it one more time tonight. Boston is stunned right now, and though they'll give their best effort, they just don't have what it takes to match-up with the Lakers. The home crowd will be huge, and just like in Game 6, the Celtics will get nothing from their bench. L.A. will dominate inside, and they have the best closer in the game in Kobe Bryant to finish it off for them if it gets close. But I see the Lakers controlling the game from start to finish in a very decisive victory. I believe the value is there to take the Lakers -320 on the Money Line as 81% of the time the home team has won Game 7 in the Finals, but if you don't think you can lay the juice then feel free to take the Lakers -7 against the spread. I could see this game being decided by single-digits which is why I'm not laying the points, but I cannot see the Lakers losing in this spot. Roll with the Lakers on the Money Line in Game 7 as my NBA GAME OF THE YEAR!
|06-15-10||Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 189||67-89||Win||100||10 h 33 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Lakers Game 6 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 189
Look for L.A. to clamp it down defensively after allowing the Celtics to shoot better than 56% from the field in Game 5. Even so, Boston still only managed to score 92 points. Both teams would have to average 95 to get the over in Game 6, and I don't see either team getting to that number. These teams know each other inside and out, and that's why as the series has gone on, we have seen some very low-scoring games. The last 3 games in Boston saw 175, 185 and 178 combined points. Expect another defensive battle in Game 6 with what's at stake.
This play also falls under a system that is 38-8 (83%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (BOSTON) - in the NBA Finals. This is the biggest stage in professional basketball, and 83% of the time the total has been set in this range the UNDER has come through. I have no reason to believe either team is going to magically figure out how to put up a big number on the opposing defense in Game 6. The Lakers are 16-4 to the UNDER after a game with 15 or less assists over the last 2 seasons. L.A. is out of sync offensively right now, but their defense has kept them in this series. Look for that to be the case again tonight in a closely-contested defensive struggle in Game 6 with neither team topping 95 points. Roll with the UNDER.
|06-13-10||Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Boston Celtics||Top||86-92||Loss||-110||10 h 13 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Celtics Game 5 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +2.5
No team has won back-to-back games in this series, and I don't see it happening in Game 5 tonight, either. The Lakers let a 2-point lead heading into the 4th quarter slip away in Game 4, and I fully expect them to come out and put the Celtics away early tonight, while closing the deal late behind Kobe Bryant. The Celtics aren't going to get the same efforts they did from Baby Davis and Nate Robinson last game. There are clear mismatches across the board in the Lakers favor, and they'll take advantage of them tonight after having 2 days to practice in between games. Phil Jackson is the king of making adjustments, and he'll put his team in the best spot to successful tonight.
Kobe did score 33 points in Game 4, but he wasn't aggressive in getting to the rim. He shot very well from the outside, but he knows that his team's best chances of winning are for him to get into the paint and find open teammates to get everyone involved. Kobe will do just that tonight in a complete team effort, and he'll also get his 30 points in the process. Both Kendrick Perkins and Rasheed Wallace are each one technical away from getting suspended for a game, which will take away their aggressiveness. The Lakers are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games when tied in a playoff series, showing their resilience. Kobe and company step up to the plate again tonight. Bet the Lakers in Game 5.
|06-10-10||Los Angeles Lakers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 190||Top||89-96||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Celtics Game 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 190
With all the pressure of a Game 4 in Boston tonight, don't expect either team to light it up offensively. These teams know each other inside and out, and both have played excellent defense to this point because of it. The Lakers are not getting good shots offensively, but they are making up for it with tremendous defensive effort. Expect a similar combined score as Game 3 where 175 combined points were scored in a 91-84 Lakers' victory.
Boston is 12-4 to the UNDER revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. The Lakers are 9-1 (90%) to the UNDER after allowing 85 points or less this season. The Celtics are 5-1 to the UNDER in their last 6 home games overall. With what's at stake tonight, I fully expect another defensive battle. Roll with the UNDER in Game 4.
|06-08-10||Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Boston Celtics||Top||91-84||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers +2.5
I fully expect the Lakers to re-gain home-court advantage tonight. Every time they have been tested in the playoffs, they have responded with a win. Sometimes this team can take nights off like they did against Boston last time out, but after losing Game 2 I expect the Lakers to be on top of their game tonight in Boston. The Lakers have won both meetings in Boston since losing there in 2008, so they have confidence that they can come into this building and get back the home court advantage they lost. Plus, the Celtics haven't been a very good home team this year, losing to both the Cavs and Magic at home in the playoffs. Boston is 31-19 SU & 19-30 ATS at home this season.
Kobe got into foul trouble in Game 2 and had to sit out much of the second half. He won't make the same mistake in this one as he knows his team cannot afford to have him sitting on the bench. Kobe plays his best in the face of adversity, and he'll help lead this team to a big performance in Game 3. Also expect more from Lamar Odom and Ron Artest, two players who did not show up in Game 2. Ray Allen will not explode for 32 points again tonight, and Rajon Rondo will not post another triple-double. The Lakers are 18-6 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. Los Angeles is 36-20 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The road team and the underdog is now 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Lakers in Game 3 as my NBA Finals G.O.T.Y.!
|06-06-10||Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers -6||Top||103-94||Loss||-110||9 h 39 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Lakers Game 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -6
In other series, it would be a good spot to back the losing Game 1 team in Game 2. But the Lakers are playing this series more motivated than any other series they have played since Kobe Bryant was drafted, and they aren't going to let up in Game 2. The fact of the matter is that this Los Angeles team is better than the '08 one that lost to Boston, with both Ron Artest and Andrew Bynum adding the much-needed toughness that this team lacked. Also, Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant are each tougher players since that series loss to the Celtics, while Boston is only 2 years older. That's why the Lakers will be able to sustain their play in Game 2.
This play also falls under a system that is 24-5 (83%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs (BOSTON) - extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). The Celtics are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 game against Pacific Division opponents. Bet the Lakers in Game 2.
|06-03-10||Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers -5||Top||89-102||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Lakers NBA Finals Game 1 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5
The Lakers are undefeated at home in the playoffs, and they send a message to Boston with a blowout Game 1 home victory tonight. This team has been motivated ever since losing to the Celtics in the '08 NBA Finals, and that hunger carried them to a world title in 2009. It will stay with them in this series with the Celtics and though I'm not saying the Lakers will win this series, I am saying they will own Game 1.
Boston is just 1-8 ATS against Pacific division opponents this season. The Celtics are 9-20 ATS in non-conference games this year. The Lakers are 18-6 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 14.4 PPG. Boston is 6-18 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. Roll with the Lakers in Game 1.
|05-29-10||Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns OVER 215.5||111-103||Loss||-110||17 h 51 m||Show|
15* on Lakers/Suns OVER 215.5
I'm siding with the OVER in Game 6 tonight as 4 of the first 5 games in this series have resulted in 221 or more combined points. The Lakers shot 42% in Game 5 and 29% from the 3-point stripe, and still managed to score 103 points. I cannot see the Suns slowing the Lakers down again like they did in Game 5, only to lose. Phoenix wasn't at their best, either, shooting just 33% from the 3-point line and 46% for the game. I did have the UNDER in Game 5 and predicted a defensive battle, but I am going the other way with Game 6 knowing that there's no way in hell both teams will be as piss-poor offensively again tonight. The key adjustments in this game will be on the offensive end for both teams.
The Lakers are a perfect 7-0 to the OVER in road games after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games this season. The Suns are 37-18 to the OVER in home games off a road loss against a division rival since 1996. It gets even better for the Suns in home games off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival since 1996, as the OVER has gone 11-1 (92%) in this spot. The Lakers are 8-1 to the OVER after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more this season. Roll with the OVER in Game 6.
|05-28-10||Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics OVER 189||Top||84-96||Loss||-110||16 h 37 m||Show|
20* Magic/Celtics NBA on ESPN Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 189
205 combined points were scored in Game 5, and I see Game 6 being another high-scoring affair. In fact, I am a perfect 3-0 with my totals in this series, hitting the UNDER in Game 1 and the OVER in both Game 4 and Game 5. As this series has gone on, the games have become more high-scoring. The Magic have found out that they must run more to give themselves the best chance to beat Boston. So don't expect Orlando to try and slow down at all tonight. Boston has no problem running the fast break either, and they will look to counter Orlando a little more tonight to try and get easy buckets in transition themselves when the opportunites arise. Boston has scored 92 or more points in their last 16 playoff games, so they been very consistent offensively. The Magic are starting to heat up finally because of the adjustments they have made. Orlando shot 52% in Game 5 en route to 113 points, and I really think this team believes they can come back and win this series so I expect another solid shooting performance in Game 6. Fouls will also play a factor in the OVER as neither team is going to want to just throw in the towel late in the 4th quarter if they are down.
This play also falls under a system that is 32-7 (82%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (BOSTON) - after allowing 110 points or more against opponent after scoring 110 points or more. Over the last 3 seasons, this system has gone 10-1 (91%) to the OVER. Roll with the OVER in Game 6.
|05-27-10||Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 218||101-103||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
15* on Suns/Lakers UNDER 218
After 4 straight overs in this series, the clear value is on the UNDER in Game 5. This is especially the case after Kobe Bryant voiced his opinion on how bad the Lakers' defense has been in this series, and how they need to put 100% focus into the defensive end and their offense will take care of itself. Look for the best defensive effort of the series from the Lakers tonight which will keep this game UNDER the number. The only reason the over came through in Game 3 and Game 4 was due to fouls in the end by the Lakers as they prolonged the game even though it was basically over.
Game 5 is the most important game in this series, and chances are it will decide the series. That's why I look for the effort on the defensive end to be magnified by both teams tonight. The Lakers are 23-8 to the UNDER after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 11-1 (92%) to the UNDER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. Roll with the UNDER in Game 5.
|05-26-10||Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic OVER 186||92-113||Win||100||11 h 33 m||Show|
15* on Celtics/Magic OVER 186
The Magic had great success against the Celtics when they pushed the tempo in Game 4. They opened the game outscoring the Celtics 31-26 in the first quarter. But Orlando didn't stick to the game plan the rest of the way, and they were fortunate to win in overtime. In Game 5 at home, I see the Magic forcing the action for four quarters as this becomes the highest-scoring game of the series. Boston was also out of character in Game 4 as they settled for too many bad shots, and Rajon Rondo just quit penetrating Orlando's defense. Look for Rondo to be more aggressive tonight which will lead to easier shots for his teammates.
Boston is 10-2 to the OVER after a loss by 6 points or less this season. The Celtics are 46-24 to the OVER in road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread since 1996. The OVER is 35-17 in the Celtics' last 52 games following a loss. The OVER is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. Roll with the OVER in Game 5.
|05-25-10||Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 221.5||Top||106-115||Win||100||19 h 19 m||Show|
25* Lakers/Suns Conference Finals TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNDER 221.5
After cashing in the OVER in Game 2 and Game 3, I'm going to back the UNDER in Game 4 tonight as this total has simply been inflated. The more times two teams play each other, the more they become familiar with one another. This makes it easier for each squad to be able to stop or at least slow down what each team likes to do offensively. Game 1 finished with a posted total of 210.5, Game 2 finished with a posted total of 216 and Game 3 ended with a Posted Total of 219.5. So this total for Game 4 has been set 11 points higher than Game 1. This just shows the kind of value we are getting with the UNDER tonight in what I think will be a defensive battle.
The Lakers are 12-3 to the UNDER in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 13-4 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 11-0 in Lakers last 11 games overall as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 7-2 in Suns last 9 games as a home underdog. All signs point toward a much lower-scoring contest in Game 4 with the pressure amplified as the Lakers try to grab a stranglehold on this series, while the Suns try and even it up at 2-2. Roll with the UNDER in Game 4.
|05-24-10||Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics OVER 187.5||96-92||Win||100||19 h 40 m||Show|
15* on Magic/Celtics OVER 187.5
I am finding a lot of value with the OVER in Game 4 Monday. Yes, the first three games of this series have gone under the posted number, but I don't see this game being played at the same slow pace. Obviously, Orlando has figured out that they cannot afford to get in a half-court game with Boston because they are getting killed right now. I've watched the Magic play numerous times this season, and they are at their best when they run. I look for Orlando to push the tempto in Game 4, and they aren't just going to give up on their season so fouls in the end will also help push the final score of this game OVER the number.
This play also falls under a system that is 29-8 (78%) to the OVER through the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (ORLANDO) - after scoring 35 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less. The last 8 times the Magic have scored 75 or less points, they have come back with a 6-1-1 OVER record in their next 8 games. The Celtics are 21-6 to the OVER in their last 27 games as a home favorite in the 5.0 to 10.5 range. Bet the OVER in Game 4.
|05-23-10||Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns OVER 218.5||109-118||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
15* on Lakers/Suns OVER 218.5
Now 7 of the last 9 meetings in this series have seen 221 or more combined points. The first two games of this series have seen 235 and 236 combined points, respectively. I expect another high-scoring contest in Game 3 as both teams top the 110 mark.
The Suns are 14-2 to the OVER in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Suns are 28-14 to the OVER revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 5-0-1 in the Lakers last 6 games overall, while the OVER is 5-1 in the Suns' last 6 overall. Phoenix is 8-0 to the OVER in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Bet the OVER in Game 3.
|05-22-10||Orlando Magic +4 v. Boston Celtics||Top||71-94||Loss||-110||9 h 19 m||Show|
20* Magic/Celtics Game 3 No-Brainer on Orlando +4
The Magic have been one of the best road teams in the league this season, and they aren't going to go quietly in this series. They have plenty of motivation after Paul Pierce's rant after Game 2, saying the Celtics were going to close it out at home. Orlando is 29-16 SU & 25-17 ATS on the road this season. Boston has actually played worse at home than they have on the road, going 29-18 SU & 17-29 ATS. Orlando has won 5 of their last 9 road meetings in Boston over the last 3 seasons.
Orlando is 18-4 (82%) ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season. A road trip is exactly what Orlando needs to get back into this series. Boston is 8-20 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Orlando is 14-3 (82%) ATS in road games after covering 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Magic are 16-4 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. This is the first game the Magic have been an underdog in the postseason, and they are showing their best value of the playoffs in Game 3. Take Orlando Saturday.
|05-19-10||Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 215.5||Top||112-124||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Suns Game 2 Total DOMINATOR on OVER 215.5
The OVER is 4-0-1 in the Lakers last 5 games overall and the OVER is 4-1 in the Suns last 5 games overall. Both teams are hitting on all cylinders offensively. Though I do not expect the Lakers to shoot 58% again in Game 2, Phoenix jus doesn't have an answer for them. The Lakers put up 128 points in Game 1 and there's no reason to believe that Los Angeles won't put up 115-plus against the overmatched Suns tonight. Phoenix scored 107 points in Game 1 and shot 49%. Similar numbers from them can be expected in Game 2 tonight.
The Suns and Lakers have combined to score 221 or more points in 6 of their last 8 meetings. When these teams get together, it's pretty easy to predict that a shootout will ensue. The Suns struggle with the Lakers' size inside and they have no answer for Kobe Bryant. The Lakers struggle against the Suns' pick-and-roll offense because Derek Fisher and company cannot stay with Steve Nash and keep him out of the lane consistently.
This play falls under a system that is 27-6 (82%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. Get ready for another shootout tonight. Bet the OVER in Game 2.
|05-18-10||Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -7||Top||95-92||Loss||-110||11 h 31 m||Show|
25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic -7
The Orlando Magic played, by far, their worst game of the playoffs in Game 1. The long layoff coupled with the lack of competition in their first two series ended up in a lackluster effort to start this series. Still, Orlando had a legitimate chance to pull off the comeback in the end. They closed to within two points in the closing seconds after trailing by 16 to start the fourth quarter. It's a sign that Orlando can be completely dominant in this series if they just give an average-to-good effort. And there's little doubt that the Magic will come out firing on all cylinders tonight after losin Game 1. The Magic are 66-32-2 ATS in their last 100 games following a S.U. loss. This trend just shows how resilient this team has been over the past few seasons.
This play also falls under a system that is 56-20 (74%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (ORLANDO) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days. This system is 11-3 this season and 38-13 over the last 3 years as well. Bet Orlando in Game 2 as my NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR.
|05-17-10||Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers -6||107-128||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* on Los Angeles Lakers -6
The Lakers still hold a grudge against the Suns after losing a couple painful playoff series to Phoenix over the past five years. Kobe and company have not forgotten, and they will want to come out and make a statement in Game 1 tonight that they are the kings of the West now. Even in the regular season this year the Lakers have taken it to the Suns, winning three out of four match-ups. The Lakers have won 4 straight home meetings with Phoenix, and their last 3 victories have come by 20, 19 and 26 points, respectively. The Lakers are 10-1 (91%) ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs this season.
This play also falls under a system that is 68-31 (69%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). This system is 14-6 this season alone. Bet the Lakers in Game 1.