Jack Jones NBA Picks
|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-25-10||Denver Nuggets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 227||127-112||Loss||-110||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* on Nuggets/Warriors UNDER 227
There is some serious value Thursday with the UNDER here in the Nuggets/Warriors contest on TNT. By looking at the numbers, you will see why. Denver is scoring 102.6 points/game while allowing 102.5 points/game on the road this season for an average combined score of roughly 205 points. Golden State is scoring 110.8 points/game at home while allowing 109.8 points/game for an average of nearly 221 points. But the Warriors' numbers are down of late as they are scoring 104.6 points/game and allowing 103.2 points/game in their last 5 contests. The Nuggets are 15-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season.
This play also falls under a system that is 27-6 (82%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games. Go with the UNDER.
|02-24-10||Portland Trail Blazers v. Toronto Raptors -3||101-87||Loss||-110||6 h 47 m||Show|
15* on Toronto Raptors -3
The Raptors are 21-7 at home this season, and laying a small number tonight against the Blazers, I'll back them to continue their dominance at home. This is the second of a back-to-back for Portland, and the 3rd game in 4 days that the Blazers will be playing. Meanwhile, Toronto has had 3 days' rest to prepare for Portland. The Raptors are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, going 10-2 SU in their last 12 games overall.
Toronto is 11-3 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. So they have played very well with rest. Toronto is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. Western Conference opponents as well. The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, while the Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take Toronto.
|02-23-10||Phoenix Suns v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 204||Top||104-102||Loss||-110||8 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Suns/Thunder UNDER 204
With no Steve Nash for Phoenix, they are going to be lost offensively tonight. But the Suns can rely on the tremendous defense they have been playing to at least stay in this game. Phoenix has allowed an average of only 92.5 points/game in their last 4 contests. The Thunder are an excellent home team defensively, giving up just 94.9 points/game. But they average less than 100 points/game offensively. The UNDER is 7-0-1 in the Suns' last 8 games overall.
This play also falls into a system that tells us to Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (PHOENIX) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, in February games. This system has gone 42-9 (82%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons and is 8-0 this season. Go with the UNDER.
|02-22-10||Milwaukee Bucks v. New York Knicks OVER 208.5||83-67||Loss||-110||7 h 7 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Knicks OVER 208.5
The Knicks are 7-0 OVER in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The Bucks are 47-27 OVER after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games since 1996. New York is 13-5 OVER after allowing 110 points or more this season. These teams just met on February 5th just a few weeks back, with the Bucks winning 114-107 on the road for 221 combined points. I expect a similar final score here with well over 210 combined points. The Knicks have allowed 113 or more points in 6 straight games, and they've scored 106 or more in 6 of their last 7 contests. Go with the OVER.
|02-21-10||Utah Jazz v. Portland Trail Blazers +1||Top||93-89||Loss||-110||12 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA No-Brainer on Portland +1
Utah has been playing well, but that has only left quite a bit of value tonight with the Blazers. Utah is just 13-12 on the road this year, where they score almost 8 ppg less than at home. The Blazers are 19-12 in Portland and allow only 94.6 ppg on their home floor. Portland has lost tot he Jazz twice in the past three weeks and once at home so I expect them to take out a little revenge on Utah here tonight.
Great system backing our play that says to take home teams off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days. 54-19 (74%) over the last 5 seasons.
|02-21-10||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic -1||95-101||Win||100||3 h 46 m||Show|
15* on Orlando Magic -1
The Cavs Antawn Jamison didn't look too sharp in his debut and I don't see him coming in and fitting in right away to what Cleveland has going. Orlando is scoring 104 ppg at home while allowing just 94.2 ppg. Cleveland is a solid road team but they should be getting a few more points here early on Sunday afternoon.
Great system backing our play here that says to take home teams off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days. 54-19 (74%) over the last 5 seasons.
|02-20-10||Charlotte Bobcats v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 188.5||88-93||Win||100||7 h 51 m||Show|
15* on Bobcats/Bucks UNDER 188.5
The Bobcats are only scoring 92.2 ppg at home this year and allowing 97 ppg. Milwaukee only scores 97.9 ppg and they give up 98.1 ppg, well below their opponents averages. I look for Charlotte to re-establish themselves on defense tonight after a couple of poor games in a row, and since the Bucks have allowed 85 points or less in three of their last five games I see this one going under easily.
|02-20-10||Charlotte Bobcats +3 v. Milwaukee Bucks||88-93||Loss||-110||3 h 37 m||Show|
15* on Charlotte Bobcats +3
Tough not to take the better team here in the Bobcats. They had a big win last night and play solid on the defensive end of the floor. Both teams are on back-to-back nights, but Charlotte has more depth so the fatigue factor gives them the edge.
|02-20-10||Philadelphia 76ers v. Chicago Bulls -4||90-122||Win||100||6 h 23 m||Show|
15* on Chicago Bulls -4
I'll lay the number here. The Bulls are 16-9 at home this year whereas the Sixers are just 11-16 on the road. Chicago is giving up just 94.4 ppg at home on 42% shooting, compared to Philly allowing 46.7%. Plus the Bulls have won three straight since the break, so this is a hot team playing at home laying a small number. Adds up to an easy cover to me.
|02-19-10||Indiana Pacers v. New Orleans Hornets OVER 205||101-107||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
15* on Pacers/Hornets OVER 205
The Pacers are one of the worst defensive road teams in the NBA this year, giving up 106.5 ppg. The Hornets defense isn't great either as they allow opponents to put up 101.1 ppg. Don't expect to see much defense tonight, which makes the OVER a solid play.
Great system play here that says to take the OVER where the total is greater than or equal to 200 when they are extremely well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days, on Friday nights. 31-5 (86%) over the last five seasons.
|02-19-10||Dallas Mavericks v. Orlando Magic -6||Top||95-85||Loss||-110||6 h 53 m||Show|
20* on Orlando Magic -6
Orlando is one of the better home teams in the league, going 21-5 and outscoring opponents 105-94. The Magic have also won four of their last five games, losing in Cleveland before the break but blew out the Pistons in the first game back. This is a tough scheduling spot for Dallas as they have already played two games since the break, plus they are trying to work in new players. I see Orlando taking advantage and winning this one big here tonight.
Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(138-77 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.2%, +53.3 units. Rating = 3*)
|02-19-10||Toronto Raptors -2 v. New Jersey Nets||106-89||Win||100||6 h 34 m||Show|
15* on Toronto Raptors -2
The Nets simply can't keep up with the offense of the Raptors and that is evident by New Jersey being 2-13 ATS this year against teams who average 103+ ppg. Toronto isn't a great road team, but that is because their defense is suspect. I don't think they have to worry about being taken advantage of by a Nets team that is scoring just 89 ppg at home this year. The Raptors have won both contests easily this year, and I don't see them having a problem tonight either so expect an easy win.
|02-18-10||Denver Nuggets v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 206||Top||118-116||Loss||-110||7 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Nuggets/Cavs UNDER 206
Cleveland is too strong defensively to allow this game to reach the total posted. They are giving up just 93.4 ppg against teams who score 99.4 ppg. Plus they are going to want to clamp down on that side of the ball after allowing 97 or more in three straight home games. These two teams played earlier this year to a 97-99 final in Denver as well.
The Nuggets are 16-5 UNDER the second half of the last two seasons when they go on the road to play a team with an above .500 record while Cleveland is 33-19 UNDER at home against teams allowing 99+ ppg the last three years.
Great system backing our play here that says to take the under where the road team is an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) and they are coming off a blowout loss by 15 points or more and the total is greater than or equal to 200. 29-6 (83%) over the last five seasons.
|02-17-10||Phoenix Suns +4 v. Dallas Mavericks||Top||97-107||Loss||-110||7 h 35 m||Show|
20* on Phoenix Suns +4.5
Dallas added some new parts to their lineup, shipping Josh Howard to the Washington Wizards for Caron Butler and Brendon Haywood. Jason Kidd didn't look like he was quite comfortable last night against Oklahoma City and playing back-to-back nights without any practice isn't going to make things easier just like that.
Dallas has now lost two in a row and they haven't been pretty, going down 91-127 against Denver before the break and coming back with a 86-99 loss to the Thunder. Phoenix on the other hand has won six of their last seven games, including a win last night by 14 points in Memphis.
The Suns won by six in Phoenix back on Janurary 28th, and lost by a single point back in early December. I'll take the points here as it should be another close game tonight in Dallas.
|02-17-10||Miami Heat -7 v. New Jersey Nets||87-84||Loss||-110||5 h 5 m||Show|
15* on Miami Heat -6.5
The Heat are coming on really strong, winning their last three games by scores of 99-66, 94-76, and 105-78. Those were against the Rockets, at the Hawks, and at the Sixers, so now that they are playing the worst team in the league laying 6.5 isn't a scary thought.
Wins for the New Jersey Nets this year have been few and far between, so don't expect another solid performance after last night's win in Charlotte.
|02-17-10||Memphis Grizzlies v. Toronto Raptors -7||109-102||Loss||-110||5 h 35 m||Show|
15* on Toronto Raptors -7
Memphis is just 8-17 on the road this year and now that they have lost five straight I don't see this being a great spot for them to get things turned back around.
The Raptors have won eight of their last nine games and will be playing their first game in a week, whereas Memphis is traveling after losing to the Suns last night. Toronto is 20-6 at home this year and with them scoring 105.5 ppg compared to 107.6 ppg that Memphis gives up on the road, this one has blowout written all over it.
|02-16-10||Los Angeles Clippers v. Portland Trail Blazers -7||87-109||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
15* on Portland Blazers -7
Portland ended the first half of the season with a big win at Phoenix, which should have given this team some confidence heading into the break. They also will have a little extra motivation to protect their home floor, where they have lost two in a row and haven't lost three straight in almost two years.
The Clippers have dropped 14 of 16 on the road and lost four in a row heading into the break. They are 0-3 since Mike Dunleavy stepped down as coach and I can't see them bouncing back in Portland tonight.
LA is giving up 103.2 ppg on the raod to teams scoring 100.4 and they are only putting up 95.9 ppg against teams allowing 100.4. Portland on the other hand is holding teams that score 100.2 ppg to just 94.8 ppg on their home floor this year. The Blazers will also be looking to avenge a 10 point loss in January to the Clippers, so I think a blowout is in order tonight.
|02-16-10||Boston Celtics v. Sacramento Kings OVER 199||Top||95-92||Loss||-115||8 h 22 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Celtics/Kings OVER 199
The Celtics are 41-28 for the OVER against teams who allow 99+ ppg over the past two seasons and they are 25-8 OVER when playing on the road with three or more days of rest. The Kings play an up-tempo style, scoring 105.8 ppg at home and giving up 105.9 ppg. They have hit 199 or more points in each of their last seven games, leading me to believe their is plenty of value tonight in the OVER.
Great system here backing our play that says to take the over when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points when a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) plays against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games.
43-14 (75.4%) since 1996.
|02-16-10||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 198||85-108||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
15* on Wolves/Pistons UNDER 198
I do like taking the UNDER when the Detroit Pistons are on the floor this year, especially since this team hasn't hit the 100 point mark since January 15th and before that it was December 12th since they hit the century mark. Detroit is scoring just 91.3 ppg against teams who allow 99.8 ppg, and at home they allow 94.4 ppg against teams who score 99.7 ppg.
These two teams played at the end of January to a 98-89 contest in Minnesota, and the total there was 188. I see a similar score here tonight with the UNDER showing lots of value.
|02-11-10||San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets -5.5||111-92||Loss||-110||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* on Denver Nuggets -5.5
Carmelo Anthony returned after missing eight games and helped Denver rout Dallas 127-91 on Tuesday night. He should provide a boost to a Nuggets team that is facing a Spurs team on the decline. San Antonio has already lost to Portland and the Lakers, and those two teams were without Brandon Roy and Kobe Bryant.
The Spurs are 0-11 on the road this year, mostly because they are scoring 96.7 ppg against teams allowing 100.2. Denver has no trouble scoring at home, putting up 112.5 ppg against teams allowing 100.4 ppg. The Nuggets have too much offense for San Antonio and should win tonight in a blowout.
|02-10-10||Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 215||102-132||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
15* on Clippers/Warriors OVER 215
The Warriors are scoring 110.5 ppg at home this year against teams giving up 100 ppg and they are allowing 111.6 ppg against teams who score 100.1 ppg. The Warriors have given up under 110 ppg just one time in their last seven games, so even though the Clippers don't really put up a lot of points, I see this one being high scoring tonight. LA isn't scoring a lot, but they are giving it up in bunches, 106.5 ppg over their last five and 102.1 ppg on the road this year.
|02-10-10||Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks -7||Top||94-76||Loss||-105||5 h 49 m||Show|
20* No Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -7
I see Atlanta winning this game big tonight as they are 21-5 at home, scoring 105.9 ppg on 47.5% shooting and 37.2% shooting from behind the 3-point line against teams who allow 99.4 ppg, 45.7% shooting and 35% from outside. Defensively they are tough as well, giving up just 95.7 ppg against teams who put up 99.5 ppg.
Miami is struggling right now, and at 11-15 on the road I can't see things turning around outside Miami. They are scoring just 96.3 ppg against teams who allow 99.7 ppg and they allow teams that shoot 35.5% from outside the arc to shoot 38.2% against them on the road. Miami had dropped five in a row before last night's close win over Houston, but playing back-to-back against Hawks team that has won three straight will spell trouble tonight.
|02-09-10||Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 202||109-99||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
15* Jazz/Clippers OVER
No analysis today.
|02-06-10||New York Knicks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -12||Top||106-113||Loss||-110||9 h 56 m||Show|
20* No Doubt Blowout on Cavs -12
The Cavs just keep rolling, particularly at home where they are now 21-3 on the season. Cleveland has won 10 games in a row overall and have managed to cover the spread in 6 straight. I like them again to cover the spread on Saturday against the Knicks.
New York is now 7-15 on the season on the road where their potent offense has struggled and their defense doesn't allow them to keep the majority of those games within striking distance. On the season the Knicks are scoring just 98.7 points per game on the road while their defense has allowed 103.6 points per game.
Cleveland is on a red-hot tear right now, having won their last 3 home games by 16 points or more. I like them to stay hot with another easy win over New York.
|02-05-10||New Jersey Nets v. Boston Celtics -12.5||Top||87-96||Loss||-102||10 h 5 m||Show|
20* NBA No Doubt Blowout on Boston Celtics -12.5
The Nets have lost 22 games this year by 13 or more points, so I don't have any problems laying this big of a number tonight with the Celtics on the court. They are losing by more than 14 ppg on the road and Boston is obviously an above average team.
Boston has struggled lately, but after two straight wins this team looks to be on track. They could still use this game tonight as a chance to get their confidence back a little bit. Boston won earlier this season by a score of 111-87 in New Jersey, so lay the wood tonight as they win big at home.
|02-03-10||Portland Trail Blazers v. Utah Jazz UNDER 197||Top||105-118||Loss||-110||7 h 14 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Blazers/Jazz UNDER 197
The Jazz have been a high scoring team at home this year so that's the big reason this total is listed so high, but with how Utah has played defense at hoe, coupled with Portland's tendency for low-scoring games I think the value tonight is definitely with the UNDER.
Utah is allowing teams that score 99.9 ppg to only put up 96.5 in Salt Late, while Portland on the road is giving up 94.7 ppg against teams who score 100 ppg. The Blazers are also scoring just 95.1 ppg on the road this year against teams who allow 99.9.
The Jazz are 14-4 UNDER after five straight wins the last three seasons and are 13-4 UNDER at home after giving up 10 or fewer offensive rebounds in two straight games.
|02-03-10||Chicago Bulls v. Philadelphia 76ers -2||103-106||Win||100||5 h 11 m||Show|
15* on Philadelphia 76ers -2
The Bulls had been on a bit of a hot streak but finally got knocked off the tracks at home against the Clippers. Now I think you are going to see this team re-adjust to their average as they take the road again against Philadelphia.
The Bulls are scoring just 95 ppg on the road this year against teams who give up 99.5 ppg and they are allowing 100.8 ppg against teams who score 99.8 ppg.
The Sixers have struggled at home, but their big problem has been perimeter defense, allowing almost 40% shooting from behind the 3-point line. Good thing the Bulls shoot only 11 3-pointers per game compared to a league average of 18. This is a good matchup for the Sixers, and they pick up a much needed win tonight on their home floor.
|02-03-10||New Jersey Nets v. Toronto Raptors -10||99-108||Loss||-115||5 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA No Doubt Rout on Toronto -10
The Nets are 1-23 on the road this year and losing by almost 15 ppg as a visitor. Toronto is 17-6 at home so they are a better than average home team, winning by four ppg up in Canada.
Toronto has been playing pretty well lately, winning five of their last six games. They also have scored 100 or more points in 15 straight games, and New Jersey has next to no chance to keep up with that kind of scoring. Lot of points to lay, but I feel comfortable doing it with these two teams.
|02-02-10||Atlanta Hawks v. Oklahoma City Thunder -1||99-106||Win||100||6 h 17 m||Show|
15* on Thunder -1
The Thunder continue to play well at home and tonight they host the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta is having a very good season, however, they have been mediocre on the road. I'll lay the small number on Oklahoma City Tuesday.
Atlanta is 11-11 in their road games this season and a look at their numbers shows exactly why picking up wins has been difficult for them. The Hawks are giving up more points (98.4) per game than they are scoring on the road (97.4). All things considered they are lucky to be .500 as the visiting team, but I don't think that can last if they continue their current trends.
The Thunder are 14-10 in Oklahoma City this season and they have been playing very well at home recently. They've won 5 of their last 7 home games their losing efforts have still been good games. Tonight against an Atlanta team that has lost 5 of their last 7 road game, I'll bank on the Thunder to come through with another impressive win at home.
|02-02-10||Los Angeles Clippers v. Chicago Bulls -7||90-82||Loss||-110||6 h 16 m||Show|
15* on Bulls -7.5
This is a case of two teams heading in different directions. The Clippers have suffered some key injuries and have lost 4 straight while the Bulls have won 5 straight games and have looked like a totally different team lately.
LA is just 6-18 on the road this season. Offensively the Clippers have really struggled overall this season, averaging just 95.7 points per game. This is a major problem as their defense has played very poorly, particularly on the road where they are allowing opposing teams to score 102.9 ppg.
As I mentioned, the Bulls have won 5 straight games and they are now 23-22 overall on the season. They have had the majority of their success in Chicago, accounting for 14 of their wins and just 7 of their losses. The Bulls do not have great numbers on their home court, averaging 96.1 ppg while allowing 94.6 ppg, however, they are averaging over 104 points per game and allowing just 97 ppg over their last 5. I look for the Bulls to stay hot and pick up an easy win over the struggling Clippers.
|02-01-10||Los Angeles Lakers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 205.5||93-95||Win||100||4 h 29 m||Show|
20* Total Annihilator on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER 205.5
Jump on this under with the Lakers playing on short rest and the Grizzlies coming in with a history of low-scoring games when they play the Lakers.
Both teams do feature good offenses, however, The Lakers are coming off of a hard-fought game in Boston last night and the Grizzlies have not scored over 100 points against the Lakers since 2008.
It would be surprising to see either team score over 100 points tonight. I will happily take the Under in this game as my top play on Monday.
|01-31-10||Golden State Warriors v. Oklahoma City Thunder -9||104-112||Loss||-110||8 h 43 m||Show|
15* on Oklahoma City -9
Lot of points here today to lay but I feel comfortable that the Thunder win in a blowout. Oklahoma City is giving up 94.7 ppg so you know they can make a few stops, but Golden State on the other hand gives up 111.7 ppg on 48.3% shooting so I don't think they will do as good of a job slowing down a Thunder team that shoots 46.5% at home.
The Warriors have lost four in a row and were beaten by 9 or more in three of those four games. Oklahoma City has covered in six of their last eight games and should feel confident on the tails of a 17 point win over the Nuggets. If they can beat Denver by double digits, they can handle a Golden State team that is 4-19 away from home.
|01-31-10||Los Angeles Lakers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 195||Top||90-89||Win||100||4 h 16 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Celtics UNDER 195
First matchup of the year between these two teams and I expect it to be a defensive battle. The Celtics have given up 100 points just one time in their last eight games and haven't scored more than 95 points but once in their last seven. This is a team that gives up just 93.9 ppg on the year to teams averaging 99.5 ppg.
The Lakers do a great job of scoring, but they don't get enough credit for the defense they are able to play. This is a team allowing just 96.8 ppg on the year to teams putting up 99.9. Look for points to be at a premium this afternoon and for this game to be lower scoring than the odds makers think.
|01-29-10||Charlotte Bobcats v. Golden State Warriors OVER 208||Top||121-110||Win||100||16 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Bobcats/Warriors OVER 208
The Bobcats are known as a defensive team, but they have gone over 26 out of 44 games this year and are 18-8 OVER against teams scoring 99+ ppg. Golden State certainly fits the bill with their 111 ppg at home this year, plus add in the fact that they allow 110 ppg and you can see why we feel this game is going over.
The last four times these two teams have met the scores have been 112-109, 110-103, 103-109, and 109-118, all four soaring past tonight's total of 208. I feel like you are going to see another high scoring contest tonight, so take the OVER.
System play supports us here that says to take home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points against opponent off a road win. 39-15 (72.2%) over the last 5 seasons.
|01-29-10||Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs -4||97-104||Win||100||8 h 34 m||Show|
15* on San Antonio -4
Memphis is rolling and San Antonio has been struggling, but I'll bite on this small number and go with the long-term results over what these teams have done lately. The Grizzlies are just 8-14 on the road this year, allowing teams who score 100 ppg to put up 108 ppg on them while shooting over 50% and 38% from deep.
San Antonio is 18-9 at home, scoring 104 ppg against teams who allow 100 ppg, shooting 48.5% from the floor and 39% from 3-point range. This should be a good matchup for the Spurs as they also hold opponents who score 100 ppg to 96.1 ppg at home.
|01-29-10||Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 200||97-104||Loss||-110||7 h 30 m||Show|
15* on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER 200
This is a high total for a couple of teams that just played a 92-86 game a few weeks ago, and a 91-80 game in their meeting before that. Memphis is the high scoring team, yet in their last three games they haven't scored or allowed 100 in any game.
San Antonio clamps down the defense at home, allowing just 96.1 ppg to teams who put up 99.9 ppg. They like to play at a slower pace so I think you'll see a lot of half-court action tonight which will lead to both teams under 100.
|01-28-10||Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 190||Top||94-96||Push||0||7 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Celtics/Magic UNDER 190
The Celtics have cranked up the defense in their last two games with Kevin Garnett back in the lineup and that has translated into teams shooting 38.4% in those two contests. This team hasn't scored or given up more than 100 in their past five games.
Orlando has been playing solid defense as well, not allowing more than 100 points in their last five contests. These two teams have met twice this year, with the point totals being 86-77 and 83-78. Last year in the playoffs they both had trouble scoring in their last four meetings, so no reason for things to change tonight. I'm going with the UNDER.
|01-28-10||Toronto Raptors v. New York Knicks UNDER 217.5||106-104||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
15* on Raptors/Knicks UNDER 217.5
The Knicks have a reputation for a high-scoring team, yet this year under D'Antoni they have gone UNDER in 25 of their 44 games. This is a team that is scoring 102.5 ppg at home and giving up 103 ppg at home, but that's a far cry from this high total here tonight.
The Raptors have scored more than 100 points in 11 straight games, but with the Knicks being 5-20 this year when allowing more than 100, you would think they would try to slow the pace down and get Toronto out of their game.
Four straight in this series have seen point totals under 217.5, and I think that carries over into tonight's game. Take the UNDER.
|01-27-10||Chicago Bulls v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5||Top||96-86||Loss||-110||6 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA No Doubt Rout on Thunder -5.5
I'll take the Thunder big at home against a Chicago team that is playing their 6th straight road game. The Bulls started this road trip off with losses to Golden State and the Clippers, followed by surprising wins at Phoenix, at Houston, and at the Spurs on Monday. The Bull have not been a strong road team this season and it's hard to imagine their success continuing.
On the season the Bulls are just 7-15 on the road and they've played poorly on both offense and defense. Chicago scores just 94.4 points per game while they've allowed over 101 points per game as the visiting team.
The Thunder sit at 12-9 on their home court averaging 99.2 points per game while holding opposing teams to 95.1 ppg in Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been a pleasant surprise this season and if you'll remember back to Jan. 4th this season they beat the Bulls handily, 98-85 in Chicago. On their home court tonight I see the Thunder rolling over an exhausted Chicago team.
|01-26-10||Milwaukee Bucks v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 198||Top||107-108||Loss||-109||7 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Bucks/Mavs UNDER 198
Great spot for the under here with two teams that have been mediocre on offense and pretty solid on defense.
We'll start with Milwaukee Bucks, who simply haven't gotten much offense going on the road this season, averaging just 93.6 ppg. Defensively the Bucks have actually been better on the road than at home, holding their opponents to 98.7 ppg (down from 99.2 ppg overall).
Dallas used be known as one of the most dangerous offenses in the league, but they've shifted to a slower pace and a more defense-oriented approach. The Mavs average 99.9 points per game at home while holding their opposition to 97.2 points per game defensively.
This line may be based more on the last meeting between these two teams than it is on the actual teams on the court tonight. Earlier this season the Bucks hosted the Mavs and the final score was 115-113, but that type of final score has not been the norm for these teams and tonight's game will stay well under the number.
|01-25-10||Chicago Bulls v. San Antonio Spurs -8||Top||98-93||Loss||-110||6 h 3 m||Show|
20* NBA Mismatch on San Antonio Spurs -8
The Spurs are in prime position to bust out of their slump against the Chicago Bulls on Monday night. San Antonio has lost two straight home games while the Bulls have won two straight no the road. It's time for both of those trends to end.
Chicago has been so bad on the road this season they simply can't keep up their current pace. This will be their 5th consecutive road game and their numbers don't back up a sustained road winning streak. So far this year the Bulls are 6-15 on the road thanks to a defense that gives up 101.7 points per game and an offense that only scores 94.2 ppg.
The Spurs are 17-8 at home this season and have great offensive/defensive splits. San Antonio scores 104.5 ppg on their home court, while holding opponents to just 96.2 ppg.
San Antonio has everything working in their favor tonight and will bust out of their semi-slump with a sizable victory over a road-weary Chicago team.
|01-25-10||Orlando Magic v. Memphis Grizzlies +2||94-99||Win||100||6 h 33 m||Show|
15* NBA No-Brainer on Memphis +2
The Grizzlies have been much better than you might think they have been at home this season. So far they are 16-5 and while their defense has struggled overall this year, it has been quite respectable in Memphis. The Grizzlies have scorers all over the court and their numbers back that up. This is an offense that posts 104 points per game, but it's the Memphis defense that allows 99.2 ppg, over 4 points per game better than their season average, that has lead to their excellent home court record.
The Magic have simply not gotten it done on the road this year. They do have a winning record away from Orlando at 13-11, but they are a much different team when they leave the Sunshine State. Orlando has averaged 101.3 ppg on the season overall, but that number drops to 98.4 ppg when they hit the road. Their defense has still managed to play fairly well, but with this talented Memphis offense they will need to put points on the board to keep up and I do not think they will have what it takes Monday night.
|01-25-10||Los Angeles Clippers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 190.5||89-95||Win||100||5 h 2 m||Show|
15* Oddmaker's Error on Clippers/Celtics UNDER 190.5
The home team almost always controls the pace in the NBA and I'm counting on that being the case as the Clippers host the Celtics Monday night.
Boston has one of the best defenses in the league this season holding opposing teams to just 93.8 points per game. As an older team they prefer to slow the pace and let that defense do the work.
The Clippers have not played particularly well on offense this season to begin with, averaging 96.2 points per game, mostly against opponents with a much softer defense than the Celtics.
The last three games in this series have stayed well under the total and oddsmakers still haven't adjust enough for this match up. Play the under tonight.
|01-23-10||Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 233||103-112||Win||100||3 h 25 m||Show|
15* on Warriors/Suns UNDER 233
No Monta Ellis tonight for the Warriors so to me means this offense is going to struggle to get going. Phoenix played last night against the Bulls so the wear and tear is there on their legs a little bit. Both of these teams give us plenty of reasons to think this game is going UNDER and that's where the value is here tonight.
|01-23-10||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 202||94-127||Win||100||3 h 53 m||Show|
15* on Wolves/Bucks OVER 202
Minnesota on the road this year has been playing to a lot higher scoring games. They put up 98.5 ppg on the road this year and allow 110.6 ppg on the road, that's nearly 9 ppg more than their home games.
The Bucks are the complete opposite, playing low scoring road games but cranking it up at home, where they allow 2 ppg more and score 10 ppg more than when they take to the road. If you look at the overall numbers for both of these teams, this total is close to on the mark, but when you take a look at their home/road splits, plenty of value tonight on the OVER.
|01-23-10||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 188.5||99-100||Loss||-110||9 h 39 m||Show|
15* on Thunder/Cavs UNDER 188.5
Both of these teams know how to play defense so I think you'll see a slow pace here tonight. Oklahoam City gives up just 96.1 ppg on the road against teams who score 100 ppg, and they score just 97.3 ppg against teams who allow 99.6 ppg.
Cleveland is an efficient scoring team, but they play at a slower pace than most teams. Defensively they are just fantastic this year, giving up just 92.3 ppg on their home floor against teams who score 99.7 ppg.
The Thunder haven't scored or given up more than 100 points in their last five games, while Cleveland is coming off an impressive defensive performance against the Lakers in which they held LA to 87 points on 38.6% shooting. Lots of signs pointing to the UNDER here today.
|01-22-10||Chicago Bulls v. Phoenix Suns -6||115-104||Loss||-110||9 h 4 m||Show|
15* on Phoenix Suns -6
The Suns should feast on the Bulls in Phoenix Friday night. Here we have one of the best home court teams in the NBA hosting one of the worst road-performing teams in the NBA.
The Bulls are just 4-15 on the road this season and a quick look at their numbers shows exactly why. Offensively they haven't done much, putting up just 92.6 points per game and on defense they've played poorly as well, allowing 101.8 ppg, meaning their average road game is a 9 point loss.
Meanwhile the Suns have enjoyed a 16-4 record in Phoenix. Most of the credit can go to their offense which lights up the scoreboard with 114 ppg. There defense would be poor, allowing 104.5 ppg if it weren't for that offense, but scoring 9.5 ppg more than your opponents on average is more than enough to be successful.
The Bulls simply don't have much going for them in this game, the numbers are strongly against them and they still have 4 more difficult road games after this one on their current trip. I'll gladly lay the points with the Suns tonight.
|01-22-10||Los Angeles Lakers v. New York Knicks +6||115-105||Loss||-110||7 h 35 m||Show|
15* on New York Knicks +6
You really can't under estimate how much a game like the Lakers' game against the Cavs last night can take out of a team, especially when that teams has to make the trek to New York to face this up-tempo Knicks team.
The Knicks get up and down the court well and they take a lot of shots and while their defense has been lacking, I like their chances against the weary Lakers coming off of that loss in Cleveland last night. The Knicks score 102.1 points per game at home this season, well above what their average opponents allow. While the Lakers may not be your typical team, they are playing on back to back nights on the road and they have been overrated as the visitor all season, earning just a 5-11 record against the spread away from LA.
The Lakers see a significant drop in production on the road, particularly on offense where they have averaged just 98.9 ppg, nearly 5 points less than their overall season average.
The bottom line here is that the Knicks have a great opportunity to beat one of the best teams in the NBA in New York tonight because of their circumstances. I'm betting they capitalize on that opportunity, but I'll take the points just to be on the safe side.
|01-22-10||Portland Trail Blazers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 185||Top||95-98||Loss||-103||6 h 12 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Blazers/Celtics UNDER 185
This number is diving fast and for good reason. Both of these teams play excellent defense and this game will have a playoff-type with a lot of energy, specifically on the defensive side of the ball. The numbers for both teams will help us back that up.
Portland isn't exceptionally explosive on offense scoring 93.8 points per game on the road this season, but they've been able to have some success as the visiting squad because of their defense, which is holding opponents to just 93.2 ppg.
When you're looking at the Celtics numbers you'll see that they do have an explosive offense, particularly at home where they average 100.5 ppg, however, their average opponent allows 100.7 ppg so you can see that they haven't exactly been playing teams with the defense that the Blazers possess. It comes as no surprise that the Celtics are strong defensively this season, allowing just 93.7 ppg against teams averaging 99.5 ppg.
Both teams have out-played their opponents on defense this season, but under-performed on offense against those same teams. This is set up to be a tough game where points will be very hard to come by. Take the Under as soon as you can because this number is only going to get lower.
|01-21-10||Los Angeles Lakers v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 193||Top||87-93||Win||100||6 h 43 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Cavs UNDER 193
This game is going to have a playoff feel and like we always say about these intense games, look for the defenses to step up and the scoring to be kept low. The last three times these tams have met the score has gone UNDER the total, including the 102-87 win by the Cavs on Christmas day.
The Lakers defense has given up just 96.5 ppg this year against teams scoring 100 ppg, and in their last five they have only allowed 91 ppg. Cleveland knows how to play defense as well, giving up just 94.6 ppg against teams averaging 99.7 ppg.
|01-20-10||Chicago Bulls v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 195||Top||97-104||Loss||-115||7 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Bulls/Clippers UNDER 195
Little confused as to why this total is set so high. The Bulls are scoring 94.4 ppg against teams giving up 99.4 ppg and allowing just 97.9 ppg against teams who average 99.9 ppg.
The Clippers are a low scoring team as well scoring 96.4 ppg against teams who allow 100.5 ppg while giving up just 95.5 ppg on their home floor against teams who score over 100. Lots of math backing our play tonight, so I'll go with the UNDER.
|01-18-10||Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 198||Top||92-98||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
20* on Magic/Lakers UNDER
This is going to be an intense game with a playoff atmosphere. Both teams have had recent troubles scoring and even though the Lakers just went off against the Clippers they will struggle more against the Magic. Orlando has put up back to back poor offensive outings so I think you'll find a low scoring game here tonight.
|01-18-10||San Antonio Spurs v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 189||97-90||Win||100||2 h 11 m||Show|
15* on Spurs\Hornets UNDER
both of these teams play at a slow pace. The Spurs play to lower totals on the road and the Hornets do a better job of defending at home. Points will be at a premium here today.
|01-18-10||Sacramento Kings v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 196.5||103-105||Loss||-108||5 h 22 m||Show|
15* on Kings/Bobcats UNDER
Sacramento has really struggled offensively here there last three games, shooting just 34.9%, 37.1%, and 37.3% against Orlando, Philadelphia, and Washington. Now they will face a tough test on the road against Charlotte, who is giving up just 90.4 ppg on 42.7% shooting and 28% 3-point shooting. This isn't a team you want to face when you are trying to get your groove back.
I also like this game to go UNDER with the early start. A lot of guys are used to playing at night, and don't quite get up and ready for these early games. The offenses don't get into a rythym and everything looks out of sync.
Last year these two teams mets twice, and each time the total fell easily under 196.5. I think you are going to see another easy winner for the UNDERE here this afternoon.
|01-16-10||Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5||80-98||Win||100||5 h 25 m||Show|
15* on Oklahoma City -3.5
The Thunder are probably the slightly better team than the Heat, and they are playing on their home floor so to me there are a couple points of value here.
Miami is allowing 102 ppg and 39% 3-point shooting on the road this year while only scoring 99.4 ppg. The Thunder at home are giving up just 95.9 ppg against teams who score 100 ppg.
The Heat have had a grueling road schedule here lately, playing their fifth game in seven nights and even though they have won back-to-back games, this team has to have some tired legs.
The Thunder won in Miami earlier this year by a score of 100-87, and I see them coming out on top again tonight on their home floor.
|01-16-10||Phoenix Suns v. Charlotte Bobcats -2.5||99-125||Win||100||7 h 11 m||Show|
15* NBA Play of the Day on Charlotte -2.5
With how Phoenix has been playing lately, and how they have performed on the road this season it's hard not to like the Bobcats today. Phoenix has lost three oft heir last four games both SU & ATS and they are coming off a hard fought 101-102 loss in Atlanta last night. On the road this season they are giving up 108.4 ppg against teams who score 100.7 ppg, and their offensive ppg is seven points lower than it is at home.
Charlotte on the other hand really cranks it up at home, going 15-4 by playing tremendous defense. This Bobcats team allows just 90 ppg against teams who score 99.3 ppg on average, allowing just 27.6% from behind the arc and just 42.8% overall from the floor. They had an easier time of it last night, beating the Spurs by 16 points at home.
In last year's home game, the Bobcats won 98-76 and while I don't see a blowout like that taking place today, you have to give the edge to Charlotte.
|01-16-10||Sacramento Kings v. Washington Wizards OVER 208.5||86-96||Loss||-110||2 h 36 m||Show|
15* on Kings/Wizards OVER
I'm going with the OVER here today as both of these defenses are horrible. The Sacramento Kings are giving up 105.5 ppg on 47.1% shooting and that number goes up to 48.7% shooting when they are on the road. The offense is scoring too though at a clip of 103 ppg.
Washington is an average scoring team, but defensively they give up 103.4 ppg and they allow 46.7% shooting and 43% 3-point shooting on their home floor.
Both of these teams are giving up more than 105 ppg over their last five and they played to a 109-112 total a month ago, so I'm playing the OVER here tonight.
|01-15-10||San Antonio Spurs v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 189||Top||76-92||Win||100||3 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Spurs/Bobcats UNDER 189
These two teams both like to play at a slower pace so I like the UNDER quite a bit here tonight. These two teams have faced each other 11 times and NEVER one time has the total reached 190 points.
The Spurs are giving up 95.7 ppg compared to teams who average 99.6 ppg and the Bobcats are allowing just 90.8 ppg at home against teams who average 99 ppg. Both of these teams can play defense, and neither will try to establish a fast pace. All the fixings you need for an easy UNDER here tonight.
|01-14-10||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Utah Jazz UNDER 194.5||96-97||Win||100||8 h 48 m||Show|
15* on Cavs/Jazz UNDER 194.5
Both of these teams have been scoring at a pretty high pace but that's just given us some value here with the UNDER. Cleveland allows just 94.3 ppg against teams who score 99.4 ppg, while the Jazz give up 96.7 ppg against teams who score 99.7.
Cleveland is coming off a game against Golden State in which they allowed 114 points, but they haven't given up more than 100 in back-to-back games since mid-November, and the UNDER is 12-3 in the game following such a lapse on that end of the floor.
|01-14-10||Chicago Bulls v. Boston Celtics UNDER 195||96-83||Win||100||9 h 60 m||Show|
15* NBA Total Dominator on Bulls/Celtics UNDER 195
I have to go with the UNDER here tonight. Both of these teams have been playing high scoring games here lately, with the Bulls going over in three out of their last four games and Boston sailing over in six of their last seven, but all that has done is jacked the total up here tonight to give us some nice value.
Chicago is only scoring 91.9 ppg on the road this year and they are allowing 97.2 ppg in all of their games. Boston is scoring 100.9 ppg against teams who allow 100.8 and they are giving up just 93.6 ppg against teams who average 99.6 pp.
The Bulls aren't going to continue their hot shooting on the road against a tough defensive team like Boston. The Celtics will be playing a back-to-back again tonight, but since last night was a blowout in New Jersey I'm not worried about tired legs. Look for the defensive intensity to be high and a low scoring game tonight on TNT.
|01-13-10||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Houston Rockets OVER 203||114-120||Win||100||5 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Total Dominator on Wolves/Rockets OVER 203
I feel like you have to take a look at the OVER here tonight since Minnesota has allowed eight straight opponents to score 105 points on them and their defense is giving up 108.8 ppg on the road this year.
Houston does a good job of scoring on their home floor, putting up 102.5 ppg and hitting 46.6% of their shots. Defensively they are giving up almost 100 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 47.6% from the floor. The Rockets have played some high scoring games the last three times out, with a 110-118 loss in Phoenix, a 105-96 win in New York, and a 94-102 loss to the defensively minded Charlotte Bobcats.
Lots of points going to be scored tonight, so take the OVER.
|01-12-10||Houston Rockets v. Charlotte Bobcats -2||94-102||Win||100||5 h 54 m||Show|
15* on Charlotte Bobcats -2
The Bobcats are on a big of a roll here lately, winning four of their last five games while Houston on the other hand has lost their last four on the road.
The home road splits play a big role in my decision to go with Charlotte tonight. This Bobcats team is 13-4 at home this year, allowing just 90.6 ppg and 27.7% from behind the arc against teams who score 98.9 ppg and shoot 35% from deep. Over their last five games they are shooting better as well, hitting 47% of their shots and scoring 98.6 ppg. The Bobcats are 25-10 ATS off a home win and 22-9 ATS after a game in which both teams scored 90 points or less.
Houston on the other hand has allowed 47% shooting this year and 100.1 ppg on the road. Over their last five games they have given up 48.2% from the floor.
With Charlotte playing better offensively and with the tough defense they play at home, it's tough not to lay this small number tonight. If it's close late they can put away the Rockets with their 77% free throw shooting.
|01-11-10||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 213.5||117-114||Loss||-110||7 h 4 m||Show|
15* on Cavs/Warriors UNDER
Cleveland has dialed up the defense again this year, allowing just 93.8 ppg against teams who score 99.2. They are going to need to bring their intensity to that side of the floor tonight as the Warriors are a fast-paced high scoring team. Even though the Warriors don't play any defense, that doesn't mean that Cleveland won't make up for it. The Cavs are 35-20 UNDER the last two seasons against teams who give up 99 ppg and they are 37-24 UNDER when playing a team with a losing record.
Cleveland has held eight of their last nine opponents under 100 points, including Portland in their 106-94 win last night. The Cavs are also 13-4 UNDER off a win by double digits this season. Golden State played the Kings last time out and ended with a final of 108-101, not what you would except when the total was set at 230. The Warriors have gone UNDER in three of their last four and the odds makers are still over estimating the total here tonight.
|01-11-10||Milwaukee Bucks v. Phoenix Suns -8.5||Top||101-105||Loss||-110||6 h 35 m||Show|
20* NBA No Doubt Rout on Suns -
I like the Suns tonight in a rout. The Bucks have scored just 90.5 ppg on the road this year because they are shooting just 41.2% from the floor and 31.5% from behind the 3-point line. That is a big reason for their 4-12 road record.
Phoenix has been one of the better home teams at 14-4, but a closer look at their stats show they have been even more dominating than their record shows. This is a team scoring 114.3 ppg on 50.6% shooting and 42.7% shooting from behind the arc. Compare that to their opposition allowing just 100.1 ppg on 45.8% shooting and 34.9% from deep. Defensively the Suns are better than you think. If you look past their points allowed they actually hold opponents to 1.5% lower shooting percentage than their average.
The suns are going to want to get back on track after a home loss to the Heat 105-109 the other night, so expect them to come out firing and not take this lesser Bucks team for granted tonight. Phoenix is 25-14 ATS at home after allowing more than 105 points the last two years.
|01-09-10||Utah Jazz +7.5 v. Dallas Mavericks||111-93||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
15* on Utah Jazz +
I know I tend to fade the Jazz on the road quite a bit, but this is a nice situation in which they are catching a couple of points in value in my mind. Both of these teams played last night, but the Mavs to me put out more energy in trying to pick up a big win over San Antonio than Utah did in their loss to Memphis so the fatigue edge has to go with the Jazz.
Utah plays pretty good defense on the road, allowing teams who normally score 99.7 ppg to only score 97.2. The Mavs have allowed 103 ppg over their last five with opponents shooting 49.3% so I'm going to take the large number of points here today as I think Utah keeps this one close.
|01-08-10||Boston Celtics v. Atlanta Hawks -3||85-93||Win||100||6 h 30 m||Show|
15* ESPN Showcase Winner on Atlanta Hawks -3
The numbers behind tonight clearly favor Atlanta at home, and when you throw in the absence of Kevin Garnett this game almost becomes a BEST BET.
The Hawks are 13-4 at home this year and beating teams by an average of 11 ppg. They are shooting 48.4% from the floor and 38.4% from behind the 3-point arc.
The Celtics are coming off an emotional overtime win on Wednesday night against the Miami Heat and have relied on their defense to win games on the road this year. They are scoring just 99.4 ppg away from home against teams who allow 100.8. With no Garnett in the middle this defense just isn't quite as strong, so I think Atlanta will be able to take advantage.
Atlanta had been struggling with four straight losses before a blowout win against New Jersey on Wednesday. That was just the kind of game they needed to get some swagger back. This is a team that has it's ups and downs, but they'll be ready to play tonight against Boston.
Great system backing our play here tonight that says to go against underdogs after a game where they committed 13+ more turnovers than their opponents. 42-15 (74%) dating back to 1996.
|01-08-10||New Jersey Nets v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 189||Top||99-103||Loss||-110||5 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Nets/Hornets UNDER
You have to love the UNDER here tonight with the way the Nets have been playing offensively and the defense that the Hornets have been playing. New Jersey only puts up 89.7 ppg on 42% shooting this year, and they are a putrid 27.3% from behind the arc.
New Orleans gives up 96.7 ppg on their home floor against teams who score 100.9 ppg, and they only put up 98.9 ppg against teams who allow 100.3. The Hornets have played UNDER the total in 10 of their last 11 games.
The Nets haven't scored 90 points the last three times out, and only managed 76 points against a bad Bucks defense. Add in the fact that this game should be a blowout for New Orleans and the Hornets will likely slow things down in the second half, giving us a cushion for our UNDER.
|01-06-10||Detroit Pistons v. San Antonio Spurs -10||92-112||Win||102||6 h 45 m||Show|
15* on San Antonio Spurs -10
The Pistons have really been struggling lately, losing ten straight games to drop this team to 11-22 on the year and 3-14 on the road. The Spurs have caught fire as of late, despite losing last time out to Toronto. This is a team that is 11-3 in their last 14 games and is 14-5 on their home floor.
Detroit is scoring just 91.5 ppg against teams who allow 99.5 ppg and they don't make it up for it on defense allowing 98.8 ppg on the road. The Spurs are scoring 104.7 ppg at home on 49.2% shooting and 40.1% shooting from behind the arc. Defensively they have been strong too, giving up just 95.3 ppg against teams who normally score 99.8 ppg.
I'll lay the large number here with the Spurs as they should win in a blowout here tonight.
|01-06-10||New Orleans Hornets v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5||97-92||Loss||-110||5 h 14 m||Show|
15* on Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5
New Orleans is just 3-13 on the road this year, giving up 103.9 ppg against teams normally scoring 100.9 ppg. The Hornets aren't just playing fast-paced games in which they score a lot of points as well, evidenced by their 96.7 ppg against teams allowing 100.4 ppg.
Oklahoma City is fighting for respectability and wants to make the playoffs this season. They are 9-7 at home where they rely on their defense to win games. This Thunder team is average on offense, but allows just 95.1 ppg to teams who score 99.6 ppg on average.
Sure the Hornets have won three games in a row (all four point wins), but the Thunder have won six of their last seven with several double digit victories in that span. Oklahoma City is a team that has taken care of business too, who is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 points this year. I think they keep that streak going tonight with a big win over New Orleans.
|01-06-10||Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat UNDER 188||Top||112-106||Loss||-110||5 h 4 m||Show|
20* on Celtics/Heat UNDER
Boston plays great defense, holding teams to just 92.7 ppg and 44.2% shooting (compared to 99.3 ppg and 45.7% shooting on average). The last few games they have given up quite a few points, but that has been against high scoring teams like Toronto, Golden State, and Phoenix. Expect them to clamp down again tonight against a slower pace Heat squad.
Miami just held the Atlanta Hawks to 75 points which is the norm for the Heat down in South Beach this year. This is a team holding opponents to 93.2 ppg who normally score 100.4 ppg. They also struggle to score, putting up just 95.7 ppg against teams surrendering 99.6 ppg.
These two teams playing in Miami early in the season and Boston won 92-85, staying under the 187 point total. You are going to see a similar score at the end of the night.
Great system backing our play tonight that says to take the UNDER when two teams with a winning record are playing each other, when one of the teams is playing with 3 or more days rest. This system is 100-54 over the last three years.
|01-05-10||Orlando Magic v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 210||90-97||Win||100||5 h 38 m||Show|
15* NBA Total Dominator on Magic/Pacers UNDER
Indiana has a reputation as a high scoring team, but they are putting up just 97.6 ppg against teams allowing 99.7 this season. They aren't good on defense, giving up an average of 103.8 ppg but Orlando doesn't try to blow teams out of the water with their scoring, but rather by shutting opponents down. The Magic are giving up just 95.8 ppg against teams who score 98.5 ppg this year.
Orlando has done a great job of playing defense when they are favored the past three years, going 95-72 for the UNDER in that role. They also have gone UNDER at a 61-37 rate the past three years when the total is set at 200 or higher. The Magic are a team that also defends well coming off a loss (they were beat by Chicago on the 2nd), going 18-8 for the UNDER and allowing just 90.6 ppg in that situation.
Great system backing our play here that says to take the UNDER when the total is at 210 or higher with one team allowing more than 103 points per game on the season, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. 61-27 (69.3%) since 1996.
|01-03-10||Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 200.5||96-131||Loss||-105||9 h 43 m||Show|
15* NBA Total Dominator on Mavs/Lakers UNDER 200.5
Both of these teams have above average offenses, but I'm zeroing in on the defensive numbers here. Dallas is giving up just 94.9 ppg on the road this year to teams averaging 100.1 ppg. The Lakers also clamp down on that end of the floor with 96.8 ppg given up against teams scoring 99.8.
Dallas has been playing low scoring games, going under in three straight with the Nuggets and Kings on the slate (two squads who can put up a lot of points). The Lakers have gone over in four straight but you are looking at the Kings, Suns, Warriors, and Kings again during that stretch, four teams that play at a fast pace.
This game is going to be a little slower. These kinds of games have a playoff like atmosphere. Dallas beat LA early in the season and the Lakers want to make a statement that they are the team to beat in the West, despite Dallas being 23-10 and 12-5 on the road. These intense games are lower scoring, so I'll side with the UNDER here today.
|01-02-10||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 196.5||Top||97-103||Loss||-110||5 h 2 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Bucks UNDER
I'm going with the UNDER here tonight in this matchup. The Thunder are scoring just 98.4 ppg on the road this year and allowing 96.2 ppg. Milwaukee is averaging 97.3 ppg and giving up 98.8 ppg.
Oklahoma City has picked up the defense in their last four games, holding those teams all under 100 points and the Jazz to 86 last night out. The Bucks haven't scored 100 points in a game since December 16th and have shot 35.6%, 42.7%, 38.5%, and 39.2% in their last four games. With the defense the Thunder have been playing coupled with the weak offensive performances recently out of the Bucks, I feel great about taking the under here tonight.
|12-31-09||Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3||86-87||Loss||-110||8 h 18 m||Show|
15* NBA No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3
Utah is 6-9 on the road this year but they are scoring only 95.4 ppg compared to 100.3 overall. Plus they are coming off a road win last night up in Minnesota, where the Wolves came back and made it interesting late.
The Thunder are 17-14 and think they have what it takes to make it to the playoffs, so they know these games against other contenders are huge. This is a team that is holding opponents to just 95.7 ppg on their home floor and I think they'll crank up the defense again tonight.
Oklahoma City has won four in a row and covered their last five. Take the hot, home team to beat a Jazz squad that plays a lot worse outside of Salt Lake.
|12-30-09||Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 193||Top||101-106||Loss||-110||5 h 21 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Hawks/Cavs UNDER 193
Last night we went with the UNDER when these two teams met and I have to take the value yet again here Wednesday.
In the past two seasons, when the Hawks are revenging a double loss to an opponent they step up the defense in the next meeting, going 24-4 UNDER with an average score of 91.7 to 91.3.
Cleveland also gets on a roll defensively, just like they are right now after allowing just 10 points to the Hawks in the 4th quarter last night. This is a team that is 18-7 for the UNDER at home after allowing 85 or less in their previous game the past three seasons with an average score of 99.8 to 87.1.
The Cavs are only giving up 91.2 ppg at home this year against teams putting up 99.1 and the Hawks are allowing 96.9 on the road against teams putting up 98.8. Both of these teams are decent on offense, but with the playoff atmosphere and the Cavs wanting to protect their home floor after stealing one from the Hawks last night, expect lots of defense tonight and more quarters like last night's 4th, rather than the high scoring first half.
|12-29-09||New York Knicks v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 194||Top||104-87||Win||100||5 h 44 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Knicks/Pistons UNDER
Where has the Knicks offense gone? This is a team that hasn't scored more than 100 points since December 11th, and they are playing some decent defense too, not allowing more than 100 since December 4th against Atlanta.
Detroit also hasn't reached 100 points since December 12th and has shot 40% of less in three straight games. The Pistons are averaging 91.1 ppg at home this year and allowing just 91.6. Over their last five games they have only managed to score 82.8 ppg on 38.7% shooting.
New York has scored 91.2 ppg over their last five and allowed just 90.8. This isn't the same kind of D'Antoni coached team you would expect, but there is still some line value with the Knicks and taking the UNDER. Take advantage tonight with this Best Bet!
|12-29-09||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 193.5||95-84||Win||100||2 h 41 m||Show|
15* on Cavs/Hawks UNDER 193.5
I gave this game a second look at have to go with the UNDER. These two teams met last year in the Eastern Conference playoffs, and I have a feeling tonights' game is going to have that same kind of feel as the Cavs have stepped it up a notch their last few games and the Hawks have something to prove after getting beaten up by Cleveland pretty badly last year.
Scores of last years' playoff games, all won by Cleveland (84-74, 97-82, 85-105, 72-99). Every one of those games ended up at 190 or less, and the over/unders posted were all in the low 180s. Atlanta is scoring a lot of points lately, but thats' been against up-tempo teams. The Cavs have held the Lakers and Rockets to season lows in FG% the last two times out, so I think the UNDER has some value here tonight.
|12-28-09||Philadelphia 76ers v. Portland Trail Blazers -5.5||104-93||Loss||-110||7 h 15 m||Show|
15* NBA No Doubt Rout on Portland -
Portland has won four straight games over the Nuggets, Spurs, Mavs, and Heat so I don't think they will have much trouble with the 7-22 Sixers tonight. The Blazers have won 10 of their last 12 in Portland while Philadelphia is just 3-12 on the road this year.
The Blazers are holding opponents who average 99.8 ppg to just 92.4 ppg this year at home and score 99.6 ppg against teams allowing 100.
Philadelphia is giving up 103.3 ppg on the road against teams averaging 98.8 and they only score 96.9 ppg against teams allowing 98.1.
I feel like Porland's defense will shut the Sixers down, while Philly is bad enough defensively to allow Portland to score enough points for this one to end in a rout.
|12-28-09||Oklahoma City Thunder v. New Jersey Nets UNDER 193||105-89||Loss||-110||5 h 42 m||Show|
15* NBA Total Annihilator on Thunder/Nets UNDER
I know both of these teams have been playing high scoring games recently, but I'll ride the season averages here since this total is inflated.
The Thunder are giving up just 96.8 ppg while scoring just 97.1 ppg on the road this year and will be playing a Nuggets team that is scoring just 89.8 ppg and allowing under 100 at home.
Oklahoma City only shoots 32.2% from behind the arc, so it's not like they are going to bury a bunch of long range shots and score quickly, and New Jersey shoots 27.8% from 3-point land and 41.8% overall. They have only reached 100 points three times this season, and that isn't going to happen tonight. This one should stay way under tonight.
|12-27-09||San Antonio Spurs -2 v. New York Knicks||95-88||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA No Brainer on San Antonio -2
The Knicks have been so bad defensively that I have no problem taking the Spurs, who have struggled on the road this year, in New York on Sunday.
The Knicks are giving up just under 104 points per game on defense, part of the reason they are carrying a 7-9 record at home this year. This wouldn't be so bad if their offensive numbers could keep up, but they are posting only 101.1 ppg this season, not nearly enough to keep up with their lack of defense.
The Spurs come into this game averaging 102 points per game and while their defense hasn't been great, it has been much better than the Knicks, that is for sure. San Antonio is allowing just under 97 points per game this season and that number barely moves when they play on the road. This is a low number for a solid veteran team playing against a struggling young team like the Knicks, even at home.
|12-26-09||Philadelphia 76ers v. Utah Jazz -6.5||76-97||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Bailout Blowout on Utah Jazz -6.5
I like the Jazz to come out strong after a bit of a break. Thi sis a team that scored 105.3 ppg at home this year against teams allowing 98.6, and defensively they are only allowing 98.7 against teams who score 99.1.
The Sixers are just 3-11 on the road, giving up 103.7 ppg against teams who average 98.8. The team isn't great offensively either, putting up just 97.6 ppg so I don't think they can keep up with Utah here tonight.
Utah won earlier this year in Philadelphia 112-90 and I see a similar score as the final tonight.
|12-25-09||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Los Angeles Lakers -5||102-87||Loss||-110||6 h 23 m||Show|
15* on Lakers -5
I don't expect the Cavs to be up to the task of winning in Los Angeles on Christmas day. Cleveland has struggled on the road this season, running up an 11-6 record so far. The Lakers, on the the other hand, have been one of the strongest home teams in the NBA yet against this season, earning a 16-2 mark thus far. LA's average home game ends in a 105-95 victory, while Cleveland's average road game is still a victory, but only a 101-97 one. On a neutral court I would have to give the Lakers the edge in this match up and on their home court there's no way I can pass them up at this low number.
|12-25-09||Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 189.5||Top||86-77||Win||100||4 h 54 m||Show|
20* Total Annihilator on Celtics/Magic UNDER 189.5
Grab the Under on Christmas Day in the Celtics/Magic game. As two of the best teams in the East this game will be played with playoff-like intensity, which, in the NBA, usually means better defense.
Boston comes into this game with one of the best defenses in the league, allowing just 92 points per game (90.7 ppg on the road). Part of the reason they have had so much success as the visiting team has been their perimeter defense, which is holding opponents to shooting just 31.8% from 3-point range this season. Orlando has also played pretty well defensively this season, allowing 96 points per game (95.5 ppg at home).
Defense will be the name of the game today. If you'll remember, these two teams met back on November 20th with an over/under listed at 190. The game ended 78-83 or 161 total points. That's the kind of defense and the kind of game I am expecting from two contenders on Christmas Day.
|12-23-09||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Sacramento Kings +6||Top||117-104||Loss||-105||8 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA Best Bet Bailout on Sacramento Kings +6
This is a bad spot for the Kings tonight as they will be heading to LA on Christmas day to take on the Lakers, plus they are coming off a stretch in which they played two other tough Western Conference foes in Dallas (102-95 loss) and Phoenix (109-91) on Sunday/Monday night.
The Kings head home after a solid finish to their road trip, winning in Milwaukee against an improved Bucks team and in Chicago with an impressive rally. Sacramento has played much better at home this year, scoring 109.6 ppg at Arco compared to 103.9 in all games.
The Cavs haven't been overly impressive offensively this year, and their defense on the road has slipped a little bit. I think this is a generous amount of points and the value here is to take the home dog.
|12-23-09||Utah Jazz v. Miami Heat -108||70-80||Win||100||5 h 19 m||Show|
15* Miami Heat pk
The value here is with the home team tonight. Utah has not been good on the road this season, going 5-8 and scoring just 96.5 ppg compared to 101.2 ppg in all contests. Defensively they have been mediocre, allowing 99.3 against teams who score 99.3.
Miami has not been playing great, but they are 8-8 at home, mainly due to their strong defense, giving up just 95.8 ppg against teams who average 100.6. I think this is a good matchup for the Heat, who will be able to shut down a bad road team.
The Heat have won 10 of the last 11 meetings at the pay window and nine of their last 10 straight up. Miami is well-rested and put a couple of beatdowns on Toronto and Orlando before relaxing against Portland the other night and allowing the Blazers to shoot 51.4% from the floor. It's bounce back time.
|12-22-09||Oklahoma City Thunder +10 v. Los Angeles Lakers||108-111||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
15* NBA Late Night Bailout ATS Blowout on Oklahoma City +10
The LA Lakers are still being over-valued and we'll take the generous amount of points tonight with Oklahoma City.
The Thunder are playing great defense this year, allowing just 95.6 ppg on the road against teams who score 100.4. Plus, this is a team motivated to put up a better showing since LA beat them by 16 points back on Nov. 22nd. That loss brought the Thunder's record to 16-9 ATS in LA since 1996. Plus, the loss came after the Thunder played the Lakers tough in Oklahoma City back on Nov 3rd, so I know this team can hang with them.
LA is sitting at 22-4 this year, but they are scoring only 103.3 ppg against teams allowing 100.2 and giving up 94.5 against teams who score only 98.8. They are coming off a five-game road trip and have a HUGE game on deck with the Cavs visiting on Christmas day. Perfect spot for a letdown, so take the points and the more motivated team tonight in the Thunder.
|12-21-09||Utah Jazz v. Orlando Magic -7.5||99-104||Loss||-107||5 h 0 m||Show|
15* NBA No Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7.5
Utah has been a completely different team on the road than at home, which seems to be a recurring theme throughout the past few years. Now at 5-7 they are scoring just 96.2 ppg away from Salt Lake, compared to 101.3 ppg in all contests.
Orlando is a solid all-around team, but they have done some damage this year at home, going 10-2 and scoring 105.8 ppg against teams giving up 99.8. They have also been dominant on defense, allowing just 95.9 ppg against opponents scoring 98.9.
Utah was killed by the Hawks a few nights ago, and now that they are going against another dominant Eastern Conference power, expect the same result.
|12-18-09||Detroit Pistons v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5||98-109||Win||100||4 h 13 m||Show|
15* NBA High Roller on Oklahoma City -5
The Thunder are coming off a poor home performance against the Dallas Mavericks, but this is a team that doesn't get down on themselves as they are a PERFECT 9-0 ATS coming off an ATS loss this season.
Detroit is just 3-10 on the road this year, scoring 93 ppg against teams who normally allow 99.5. Their defense hasn't been great either, giving up 98.7 ppg against teams who normally score 100.2.
Oklahoma City is only 6-7 at home, but they have played some quality opponents. They are only allowing 95.9 ppg against teams who on average put up 100.8. Their weakness has been perimter defense, allowing 40.1% shooting from behind the arc, but when they are facing a Pistons team that is shooting just 29.7% from 3-point land, I don't think they will see much trouble there tonight.
|12-18-09||Utah Jazz v. Atlanta Hawks -5.5||Top||83-96||Win||100||4 h 43 m||Show|
20* NBA No Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -5.5
Two good teams squaring off tonight in the Utah Jazz and the Atlanta Hawks which sets up a couple of nice system plays for us. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (winning 60% to 75% of their games). 41-15 (73% the last three seasons). Play on home favorites after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
26-6 (81.2%) over the last 5 seasons.
utah is just 4-6 on the road this year, scoring 96.2 ppg against teams giving up 99.2 and allowing 89.9 against teams averaging 99.3. The Hawks are a dominate 11-2 at home with 112.5 points scored per game against teams allowing just under 100 and giving up 99.5 against teams scoring 99.2
I feel like the line here should be closer to 10, so with four points of value I'm going to ride the home team here big.
|12-17-09||Orlando Magic v. Miami Heat +4.5||86-104||Win||100||7 h 38 m||Show|
15* Marquee Money on Miami Heat +4.5
The Heat have been struggling a little bit lately, but you have to like catching the 4.5 points with them here tonight on their home floor against in-state rivals. Despite their 10-4 road record, the Magic are shooting 4% worse on the road than at home, while scoring more than five points per game less.
The Heat are a good matchup here because they defend the three so well. A lot of focus is always made on how Howard dominates the middle, and he does, but he is complemented by guys who shoot 37.3% from outside the arc (a number that drops slightly to 36.4% on the road). Miami does a good job of defending the perimeter though as they allow just 31.9% 3-point shooting at home.
Miami won in Orlando just a few weeks ago, and I think they pull off another close one here on their home floor again tonight.
|12-16-09||Memphis Grizzlies v. Atlanta Hawks -9||97-110||Win||100||4 h 48 m||Show|
15* NBA Blood Bath on Atlanta Hawks -9
It's tough not to like the Hawks at home tonight, even if we have to lay the big number. This team is 10-2 at home on the year, scoring 112.7 ppg against opponents who normally give up 99.6. They are also allowing 99.7 ppg against teams who usually score 99.1, so that's a hefty scoring differential.
Memphis on the other hand is just 4-9 on the road, giving up 109.7 ppg against teams who normally score just 99.6. They have done a good job of scoring though, putting up 101.6 ppg against teams who normally surrender 99.4.
The Hawks have won and covered four in a row, with an impressive win at Dallas followed by three straight double digit beat downs. I just can't see them letting up here as they continue to strive to be mentioned among the Eastern Conference elite.
|12-15-09||New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats -4.5||87-94||Win||100||5 h 60 m||Show|
15* on Charlotte Bobcats -4.5
The Knicks have gotten quite a bit of rest here lately, and normally that's a good thing. However, the style of play for New York relies on rhythm and tempo, meaning days off can be detrimental to their offensive performance. This team is just 4-7 on the road this year, giving up 106.6 ppg to teams that normally score 100.
Charlotte poses a tough challenge for the Knicks since they bring so much defensive intensity to the floor. That's a big reason they are 8-3 at home this year, allowing opponents to score only 89.8 ppg on 42% shooting (compared to their season averages of 99 ppg).
The Bobcats have been rolling at home here lately, beating Denver and Cleveland. I think they take care of business against the Knicks here tonight.
|12-14-09||Oklahoma City Thunder +10.5 v. Denver Nuggets||93-102||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
15* NBA Side of the Night on the Oklahoma City Thunder +10.5
The Nuggets are 10-1 at home this year and outscoring opponents 116.1 to 102.9, but I think those stats are a little misleading. Their opponents are giving up 100.2 ppg on average and scoring just 97.7. That means their foes have been pretty sub-standard, and yet this spread is set close to their average margin of victory.
Oklahoma City is much improved this year, going 6-4 on the road. The team has done it with defense, giving up just 95 ppg on the road against teams who put up over 100 on average. They also have plenty of guys who can score as well. I think the Thunder keep this game close via their defensive intensity, so getting double digits is a pretty nice gift.
|12-14-09||Golden State Warriors v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 211.5||101-117||Loss||-110||6 h 31 m||Show|
15* NBA Total Dominator on Warriors/76ers UNDER 211.5
The Warriors have gone under in four straight games as they put up 88 against the Thunder, 105 against New Jersey, 91 against Chicago and 95 against Detroit. Philadelphia has had recent troubles on offense also, with 83 points against Denver, 86 against Detroit, and 91 against Houston, all at home.
Philadelphia is putting up 91.3 ppg at home this year against teams surrendering 97.6 and they are giving up 98.3 against teams scoring 98.6. That is a lot of low scoring. The fact that Golden State is putting up 107 on the year and giving up 111 is the reason this total is so high, but as evidenced by their recent play the UNDER is showing a lot of value here tonight.
|12-11-09||Orlando Magic v. Phoenix Suns -3||103-106||Push||0||8 h 52 m||Show|
15* Side of the Night on Phoenix Suns -3
Orlando just allowed the Utah Jazz to beat them by giving up 50% shooting on a lot of mid-range jump shots, well that's the Phoenix Suns specialty so unless something changes real quick, they are going to give up a lot of points again tonight.
Phoenix is scoring 118 ppg at home this year against teams that allow 100.8 on average, but their defense has actually been strong too, giving up just 103.7 ppg against teams scoring 100.1. That's a pretty impressive margin of victory, and a big reason this team is 7-0 playing in Phoenix.
I know Orlando has done a great job on the road (part of the reason I took them last night), but coming off a back-to-back and playing one of the best teams in the West, a team who likes to run and will cause matchup problems for the Magic, means they get beat again on Friday.
|12-11-09||New York Knicks v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 205.5||113-96||Loss||-105||6 h 31 m||Show|
15* Total Dominator on Knicks/Hornets UNDER 205.5
***This was going to be my 20* for tonight but with the line dropping three points we lost just enough value for me to knock it down a little.***
The Hornets have cranked up the defense since getting Chris Paul back in the lineup, holding three straight opponents to under 96 points. At home they have been great this year, holding opponents who normally score 101.2 per game to 96.7, a decrease of five points. They don't score a whole lot either, going for 99.1 when their opponents surrender 100.1 on average. Also, this team gave up 117 points to the Knicks back in November, so you know they will be motivated on the defensive end of the floor tonight.
The Knicks can obviously put up the points, but on the road this year their games are averaging 209 ppg an dover the last five they are averaging 209 ppg. Even though that is slightly over the posted total right now, they are going to be playing a team that has been shutting down opponents more than their average foe, creating some value here with the UNDER.
|12-11-09||New Jersey Nets v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 198||91-107||Push||0||4 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Total Value on Nets/Pacers UNDER 198
The Nets are scoring just 88.4 ppg on the road this year against teams who give up 99.4, while they are only allowing 98.3 ppg against teams who normally score 99.5
The Pacers are scoring just 96.6 ppg on the year against teams surrendering 100.3 and they are allowing 99.4 ppg at home against teams scoring 100.3. That means all four factors are pointing to fewer points in this game, yet the total is sitting right around a league average of 198.
These two teams have played each other once this year and the total was set at 189.5 and the final was still under at 91-83. I think the books are being overly generous since the Nets have given up quite a few points lately to teams like the Kings, Lakers, Mavs, and Knicks so I'd go with the UNDER here tonight.
|12-10-09||Orlando Magic -2.5 v. Utah Jazz||Top||111-120||Loss||-101||12 h 11 m||Show|
25* Bailout Blowout on Orlando Magic -2.5
This boils down to the Jazz being a tired team and the line not reflecting it. Utah is going to be playing their 5th game in seven nights, which does not bode well for a thin squad like they have. Don't think these guys are a little tired right now? They were down 2 points to the Lakers heading into the 4th quarter last night but got torched 28-6 in the final frame for a 101-77 defeat. The last time they played a back-to-back was the 5th against the Timberwolves, and they lost by seven points as a seven point favorite.
Orlando is playing great right now, losing only one game since 11/11 and that was on Thanksgiving day in a close battle with the Heat. This team is traveling well with a 10-2 record on the road, allowing only 93.6 points per game as a visitor.
The Magic have also easily handled the Jazz in their last two meetings, winning 105-87 in Orlando and 103-94 in Utah. Lay this small number tonight as I think the visitors have their way with the tired Jazz!
|12-09-09||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Houston Rockets +3||85-95||Win||100||6 h 22 m||Show|
15* Side of the Night on Houston Rockets +3
Cleveland is 7-4 on the road this year, but they have only scored 99.9 ppg against teams allowing 99.8 and have allowed 96.2 against teams that normally score 98.2, meaning they have been slightly better than mediocre.
The Rockets are 4-4 at home having put up 102.9 ppg against teams who allow 99.6 and allowing 102.7 against teams who score 101.1 so even though their record is .500 they have played against some tough foes to get there.
The Cavs have played a lot of games recently (this will be no. 5 in 8 days) and are coming off an OT loss in Memphis last night. Houston on the other hand is well-rested having not played since the 5th. I'll take the home dog tonight since there seems to be a few points of value there.
|12-09-09||Golden State Warriors v. New Jersey Nets UNDER 218.5||Top||105-89||Win||100||5 h 27 m||Show|
20* NBA Total Dominator on Warriors/Nets UNDER 218.5
Golden State is averaging 105.5 ppg against teams who give up 99.2 ppg on the year and they are giving up 115.5 ppg against teams who average 100.5. Since the Warriors are averaging 221 total points per game on the road and 225 over their last five we get to take advantage of an inflated total.
The key here is that they are playing New Jersey, a team that has scored only 88.3 ppg against teams who allow 98.7 ppg on the season and give up only 97.7 ppg against teams who score over 99. The Nets have won two out of their last three but know that they can't beat Golden State in a track meet. The fact that they slow the pace down so much means that for this total to get past 218 is they are going to have to play out of their element, which I don't see happening so I feel safe with the under.