Jack Jones NBA Picks
|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-25-09||San Antonio Spurs +5 v. Dallas Mavericks||90-99||Loss||-110||5 h 21 m||Show|
15* on San Antonio Spurs +5
I like the Spurs to bounce back here. This is a franchise that has won four title since 1999 and were embarrassed the last time out by the Mavs. The good part about that was Greg Popovich got to pull out Tim Duncan and Tony Parker early in the third quarter, which means they should be plenty rested and ready to go here tonight. I'm going to play a solid system that says to take the team who was trailing by 15 points or more at the half in a game that combined for 160 points or less the following meeting. That system is 25-5 (83.3%) over the last five seasons.
|04-25-09||Denver Nuggets v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 197.5||Top||93-95||Win||100||3 h 32 m||Show|
20* on Nuggets/Hornets UNDER 197.5
This Denver team is playing great defense right now, with Kenyon Martin doing his job on David West and Chauncey Billups muscling up Chris Paul. You can't expect the Hornets to try and up the pace either, since they have a thin bench and Tyson Chandler isn't at full strength. With the Hornets back against the wall, expect them to try and slow the pace down to match their style, and since the home court does a better job at dictating the pace I think they will do exactly that.
|04-25-09||Denver Nuggets v. New Orleans Hornets -4||93-95||Loss||-110||2 h 28 m||Show|
15* on New Orleans -4
I think New Orleans dictates the pace today and gets the tempo down to a style that they can win with. The Nuggets are 21-20 on the road this year but have been outscored by their opponents. New Orleans was a solid 28-13 at home, scoring 5 more points per game than their foes and holding them to 6 points less per game than they did on the road. Denver has hit over 50% of their shots and over 50% from behind the 3-point line in the first two games of the series, but don't expect them to have the same kind of success here early in the morning against New Orleans.
|04-24-09||Portland Trail Blazers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 184.5||83-86||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
15* on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 184.5
Both of these teams play great defense and I expect the intensity to be brought up a level tonight. Houston has shot over 50% in both of the games in Portland, and htey also allowed the Blazers to shoot 51% in Game 2. I can't see either situation taking place tonight as Ron Artest and Shane Battier should do a better job of slowing down Brandon Roy and with Portland's size advantage now that Dikembe Mutombo is out, I see Portland trying to slow it down and banging it down low.
|04-23-09||Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 v. Utah Jazz||Top||86-88||Loss||-110||11 h 27 m||Show|
20* First Round Game of the Year on LA Lakers -1.5
I think the Lakers are on a mission this year and will want to put Utah out of their misery quickly. The first two games have followed the same pattern, LA dominates early and then coasts the rest of the game while Utah tries to catch up. The Lakers just have too much depth and the guys other than Kobe have been stepping up the first two games. Utah has to be feeling some wear and tear, plus they didn't get back home until 3 AM on Wednesday before practice at 11 AM. I know the Jazz were 33-8 at home and seemed to play like a different team in Salt Lake, but the Lakers have the best road record in the league at 29-12 and have shot above 55.6% in three straight games against the Jazz. Utah just doesn't have an answer defensively.
|04-23-09||Boston Celtics v. Chicago Bulls OVER 201||107-86||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
15* Chicago/Boston OVER 201
This total seems low to me. These two teams have now met four times since December and both teams have gone for more than 100 points in each of the contests. Even though the first playoff game got an overtime boost to get there, both teams shot uncharacteristically bad in that one. I don't see this one having a problem getting to 200.
|04-22-09||Miami Heat +5.5 v. Atlanta Hawks||108-93||Win||100||5 h 41 m||Show|
15* on Miami Heat +5.5
I don't think you can expect Dwayne Wade to be quite as bad here in Game 2 as he was in the series opener. I think he responds with a big one tonight and Miami is 10-1 ATS when coming off a road loss of 20 points or more. Anytime a team gets embarrassed you can count on their full attention in the film room and on the floor the next game, so I think Miami makes some adjustments and keeps this one close tonight.
|04-21-09||Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 183.5||103-107||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
15* on Rockets/Blazers OVER 183.5
I think the value is with the OVER once again tonight as these two teams have scored 189, 190, 192, and 200 combined points in their four meetings this year. Portland is scoring over 103 ppg at home while Houston is putting up and giving up 97 ppg on the road. To me the math works out to think the total on this game should have been four to five points higher, leading me to take the OVER.
|04-21-09||Detroit Pistons v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 178||Top||82-94||Loss||-110||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA No-Brainer Total on Pistons/Cavs OVER 178
The Pistons tried but couldn't find a way to stop LeBron James in Game 1 and I don't see them getting the job done tonight either. Detroit's defense is over-rated, having given up 95 ppg on the road this year and nearly 100 ppg over their last five. The Cavs are scoring 102 ppg this year at home and nearly 108 ppg over their last five. I think this one sails over the total.
|04-20-09||Dallas Mavericks +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||84-105||Loss||-110||11 h 56 m||Show|
15* on Dallas Mavericks +6.5
The value is with Dallas tonight as everyone expects the Spurs to bounce back from their loss to the Mavs in Game 1. This just isn't the same San Antonio team you have come to expect in the playoffs as Tim Duncan is severely hampered with his knee problems and Manu Ginobili being out due to the stress fracture in his ankle. The Mavs dominated the paint in Game 1 and would have blown out the Spurs if San Antonio didn't shoot so well from behind the arc. You can't expect to keep shooting that well from outside. Dallas was on a roll to end the season in winning five of their last six games and I think they will keep that momentum going tonight in San Antonio.
|04-20-09||Chicago Bulls v. Boston Celtics -8||Top||115-118||Loss||-110||8 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA No-Brainer on Boston Celtics -8
I think the Celtics bounce back and win big over the Bulls here tonight. Chicago has to be happy that they got at least one of the first two games played in Boston, while the Celtics put up a horrible performance in Game 1 and still should have won the game if Pierce made have made his free throw at the end of regulation. This veteran team spent a lot of time watching film to shore up their mistakes and find Chicago's weaknesses. Ray Allen isn't going to shoot 1-of-12 again tonight and Derrick Rose isn't going to drop 36 points. The Bulls are 7-21 ATS off an upset win as an underdog the past two years while Boston is 31-13 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent the last three. Lay the number here.
|04-19-09||Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers -11.5||100-113||Win||100||5 h 3 m||Show|
15* LA Lakers -11.5
I'll go with the Lakers at home today, who are 16-3 against the Jazz in the Staples Center and have won six in a row in the series. This LA team just beat Utah by 13 points in what was a meaningless game for the Lakers, but one that had seeding implications for Utah. The Jazz lost seven of their last nine games to close out the season and probably won't have Okur tonight due to his hamstring injury. Okur was the team's second leading scorer and third in rebounding and blocks. He would be needed against a Laker team that has looked dominant with Andrew Bynum back on the floor. The Lakers have been beating teams pretty handily at home all year, while the Jazz have struggled outside of Utah so I'll lay the number here.
|04-18-09||Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -4.5||108-81||Loss||-110||11 h 20 m||Show|
15* on Portland -4.5
Why not lay the small number here with Portland? This team is 34-7 at home this year and winning by more than 10 ppg. Houston is 53-29 overall, but only 20-21 on the road. The Blazers have also won 10 out of their last 11 games, including wins over the Lakers, Nuggets, Spurs, and Jazz. This team is young, but should be up for a big performance in Game 1.
|04-18-09||Detroit Pistons v. Cleveland Cavaliers -12||84-102||Win||100||4 h 56 m||Show|
15* on Cleveland -12
I'll take Cleveland at home in Game 1. The Cavs were 39-1 on their home floor this year before resting their starters in the finale and losing in overtime. They are winning by an average of 14.3 ppg and have put 20+ point wins over the likes of Dallas, San Antonio, and Boston these past few weeks. The way they buckle up defensively I just don't see Detroit being able to score enough points to keep up so the Cavs will win this one in a blowout.
|04-15-09||Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 239||113-117||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
15* on Warriors/Suns UNDER 239
These are two very high scoring offenses and two very weak defenses, but this game should not go over the total as there isn't much motivation for either team to come out firing. Both teams have already slowed their scoring with both teams around 6 points off their season average over their last 5 games. Everyone will be looking at their most recent match up, a game that saw 284 points scored and everyone will jump on the Over, forgetting that neither team has anything to play for and that lack of intensity on offense should keep this game under the total.
|04-14-09||Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 207||112-125||Loss||-110||5 h 0 m||Show|
15* on LAkers/Jazz UNDER 207
Motivation will be low for the Lakers, who are locked into the #1 spot in the West, and cannot catch the Cavs for the NBA's best record and home court advantage throughout the playoffs. They should take to resting their starters as much as possible, which would result in a much lower point total. Utah's struggles on the road are well-documented, as they score much less on the road than they do on their home court. There won't be much urgency for either team here and I think the score stays well under the number.
|04-13-09||Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz -12.5||85-106||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
15* on Utah Jazz -12
The Jazz are one of the best teams in the NBA on their home court, and they'll be playing one of the league's worst road teams (well, worst overall teams) in the LA Clippers tonight. Utah is 32-8 at home this season, while the Clippers stand at just 11-29 on the road. The Jazz are looking to step up their game and catch the Mavs for the 7th spot in the Western Conference in the playoffs, so the motivation is there for them to make sure this one isn't close. The Jazz have won 3 straight in the head-to-head match up, both straight up and against the spread, with the narrowest margin of victory being 16 points at LA. Their last two meetings in Utah have been 20+ point wins by the Jazz, which is exactly what I expect tonight.
|04-13-09||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Dallas Mavericks -11||94-96||Loss||-110||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* on Dallas Mavs -11.5
The Mavs have plenty of motivation to come out and play a great game as they try to improve their standings in the Western Conference Playoffs. They are currently sitting in the 7th seed, but are just behind the Hornets and just ahead of Utah. Dallas has won 10 straight over the T-Wolves, including a 20 point victory at Minnesota the last time the two met. Minnesota is without probably their best scorer in Randy Foye, and it looks like Kevin Ollie may also sit this one out. Mavs come out and destroy Minnesota in Dallas tonight.
|04-13-09||Orlando Magic v. Milwaukee Bucks -3.5||80-98||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
15* on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5
The Magic are already locked into the #3 spot in the East and there's little doubt that their starters won't be playing the entire game. Big motivation here for the Bucks playing in Head Coach, Scott Skiles' last home game. The bottom line here is that Orlando has no real reason to put their best effort forward, they should be looking forward to the playoffs and resting their key players. The Bucks have a solid bench and should send Skiles out of Milwaukee with a victory.
|04-12-09||Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers -7.5||76-107||Win||100||4 h 4 m||Show|
15* on Cleveland Cavs -7.5
Boston has not fared well recently against the Cavs in Cleveland,losing their last 4 trips there, but they've also struggled to cover the spread against the Cavs in any situation. In the last 8 meetings the Celtics are just 1-7 against the spread. This tells me that Boston is almost always overvalued when they play the Cavs. Cleveland is still fighting to have the best overall record in the NBA (they are currently one game up on the Lakers), and they are also defending their incredible 38-1 home record. Cleveland pulls away late and gets the cover tonight.
|04-12-09||Dallas Mavericks v. New Orleans Hornets -4||92-102||Win||100||2 h 33 m||Show|
15* New Orleans Hornets -4
The home team in this match up has a clear edge as the host has won 9 of the last 12 meetings between the Mavs and the Hornets. New Orleans wins tonight because they have the better defense and turn the ball over far less than do the Mavs. Both teams are locked into a playoff spot, so I do not see a motivational edge here for Dallas. The Mavs and Hornets have similar caliber talent, New Orleans just has a better defense, and I will take the better defense at home in this situation every time.
|04-11-09||Phoenix Suns v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 224.5||Top||110-97||Win||100||7 h 21 m||Show|
20* on Suns/T-Wolves UNDER 224.5
This total is entirely too high for any game involving the T-Wolves. I know the Suns can score and their defense has not been very good this year, but Minnesota is only averaging 97.9 points per game this year, and they've failed to break 90 points in 5 of their last 8 games overall. Phoenix is out of the playoff mix and doesn't have a lot of motivation to come out and give their best offensive effort, just look at their performance in Memphis last night where they only mustered 89 points against the Grizzlies and the highest total posted in the last 2 years in a match up between these two teams. Take the UNDER with confidence Saturday.
|04-11-09||Orlando Magic -6.5 v. New Jersey Nets||93-103||Loss||-106||7 h 51 m||Show|
15* on Orlando Magic -6.5
The Magic have been one of the biggest money-makers in the NBA on the road this year going an impressive 27-12 against the spread. Orlando has won 4 in a row in this head-to-head match up, and most of the games haven't been close. Magic by double-digits in New Jersey tonight.
|04-10-09||Los Angeles Lakers v. Portland Trail Blazers -1||Top||98-106||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
20* Portland Blazers -1
Portland is in a dead heat for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and this young team with aspirations of making a deep run knows that home court is important. Not only do they need to win here, but they also know that in order to be taken seriously they are going to need to beat teams like the Lakers. LA is coming off a win at home against Denver last night, but Portland beat the Lakers by 17 a month ago and have dominated LA on their home floor in recent matchups. I think they will come away on top here as well.
|04-10-09||New Orleans Hornets v. Dallas Mavericks -7||92-100||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
15* Dallas Mavs -7
It's hard not to like how Dallas is playing offensively right now, racking up 140 against the Suns and 130 against the Jazz the last two times out. Dallas is 29-9 now at home this year while the Hornets are 21-17. New Orleans has lost three of their last four games so I'll take the team with the momentum here tonight.
|04-10-09||Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks -5.5||118-122||Loss||-105||6 h 22 m||Show|
15* Atlanta Hawks -5.5
Big game for the Hawks tonight as they look to clinch home court in the first round of the playoffs. The Hawks went on a 2-6 streak there a couple of weeks ago, but they were playing some of the toughest teams in the league. Once they played some weaker competition the team bounced back with wins over Toronto and Milwaukee. Now that the team is facing the Pacers, they should put away yet another inferior squad tonight.
|04-08-09||Utah Jazz v. Dallas Mavericks -3||101-130||Win||100||8 h 6 m||Show|
15* Dallas Mavs -3
Important game tonight for Dallas as they can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a Suns loss. Not only that but they want to move out of the 8-seed so they don't have to take on the Lakers, and with Utah right above them in the standings tonight is a key meeting. This Jazz team finally beat a Western Conference team with a record above .500 on the road the other night when they took down the Hornets, but Dallas is 28-9 at home this year and with so much on the line you'll see max effort from them tonight. I'll lay the small number.
|04-08-09||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets -13||112-122||Loss||-110||8 h 37 m||Show|
15* Denver Nuggets -13
The Thunder had a little stretch about a month ago when they were playing good basketball, but those days have long passed. This team lost three straight at home, all by double digits. In fact, they have lost by 10 or more points in six of their last seven games overall. Denver on the toher hand has won seven in a row, with fie of those games coming by double figures. With Denver playing solid defense and shooting a high percentage and the Thunder struggling on offense, this game sets up to be a blowout.
|04-08-09||Washington Wizards v. Cleveland Cavaliers -16||86-98||Loss||-110||6 h 37 m||Show|
15* Cleveland Cavs -16
I know these two teams have played some close games this year, but expect Cleveland to come out hungry tonight. They want to lock down home court advantage, and they want to revenge their loss to the Wizards last week in Washington that snapped their franchise record 13 game winning streak. This is a lot of points, but the Wizards are 5-33 on the road this year losing by 11 points per game, while the Cavs are 37-1 at home winning by 14.5 points per contest. With Cleveland being so much better than average at home, and Washington being so bad on the road, I expect nothing less than a blowout tonight.
|04-07-09||New Orleans Hornets v. Miami Heat -4||93-87||Loss||-110||6 h 47 m||Show|
15* on Miami Heat -4
I'll take the Heat tonight in this battle of two teams fighting to make the playoffs. New Orleans is going to be without Tyson Chandler and James Posey again tonight and nobody is really stepping up to fill their roles. New Orleans has lost two straight to Golden State and at home to Utah, who can't beat anyone on the road. Miami is coming off a three game road trip in which they played the Mavs tough, then beat the Bobcats and Wizards. I think they have the momentum and should pick up the win at home.
|04-05-09||Los Angeles Clippers v. Los Angeles Lakers -17||85-88||Loss||-110||7 h 22 m||Show|
15* on Lakers -17
The Lakers want to have home court advantage throughout the playoffs, something that cost them last year in the Finals against the Boston Celtics. Coach Phil Jackson knows this even says he wouldn't feel good about it if the team didn't go all out to try and achieve the best record in the league. Kobe Bryant also is trying to show his teammates that he isn't ready to pack it in and go through the motions, as the only thing that is on his mind is a championship, and home court will only make that goal more easily attainable. The Clippers on the other hand are 18-58, not fighting for anything and it's apparent with their four straight losses, three of which have come by double digits. The Lakers are hungry and should put this game away early and win big.
|04-05-09||Golden State Warriors v. Sacramento Kings -2||105-100||Loss||-110||7 h 51 m||Show|
15* Kings -2
I was waiting to see if Kevin Martin is going to play tonight with his ankle injury and all signs point to yes so let's make the Kings a play. Monta Ellis on the other hand will be joining Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette, and some supporting cast members on the sidelines. These two teams have played some great games recently, with Wednesday's 143-141 win by the Warriors fresh in my mind, but the Kings won by 17 in the earlier game in Sacramento and I think they'll come away with a big win again tonight. These team played well in their last two home games, a one point loss to the Hornets and a win over the Suns. The Kings are horrible on defense, but with the Warriors shooting so poorly on the road I like their chances tonight.
|04-05-09||Denver Nuggets -7.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves||110-87||Win||100||5 h 51 m||Show|
15* Nuggets -7.5
Denver is playing some of their best basketball of the season and could earn home court advantage in the playoffs for the first time in 21 years. It doesn't hurt that they have beaten Minnesota eight straight times either, added to the fact that Denver has won six games in a row themselves. By winning 11 of their last 12 games the Nuggets are now a second seed out West, which would greatly improve their chances of making it deep into the playoffs. I know Minnesota just beat Utah in Salt Lake, which is a major accomplishment, but this team has gone just 3-14 in their last 17 at home, so I don't think a major turnaround happened overnight. Nuggets win this game big.
|04-05-09||San Antonio Spurs v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 181||Top||81-101||Loss||-110||2 h 33 m||Show|
20* No-Brainer Total on Spurs/Cavs UNDER 181
Two of the best defensive teams in the league and both of them should be focused to get back on track after poor performances on that end in their last games. The Spurs gave up 121 points on 51.6% shooting against Indiana, while the Cavs gave up 116 on 53.7% shooting in Orlando. Those were games against faster paced teams, and today both teams should settle in to their comfort zones of half-court styles. I'll take the UNDER here as a BEST BET!
|04-04-09||Detroit Pistons v. Philadelphia 76ers -3||90-95||Win||100||3 h 51 m||Show|
15* on Philadelphia 76ers -3
Who knows what is going on with this Detroit team now that Allen Iverson has decided to shut it down for the season. The Pistons are obviously a mess and they have dropped five straight on the road, including their last two games overall. They did beat the Sixers in Detroit by four points a week ago, but expect Philly to get some revenge tonight. I know the Pistons are playing for a spot in the playoffs, but this team isn't nearly as good as in seasons past and can't just turn it on here. Take Philly minus the points.
|04-03-09||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Utah Jazz -13.5||103-102||Loss||-100||7 h 27 m||Show|
15* Utah Jazz -13.5
The Jazz finally head home after a rough two-game road trip that resulted in 2 losses. Tonight they can vent some of that frustration on the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves, who at 10-27 are one of the worst road teams in the NBA. The Jazz are well known to be good at home and they've stood by that label, earning a 32-6 record in Utah this year, but the number that impresses me most is their 21-17 ATS record at home, despite being big favorites in the majority of those games. The Jazz are currently holding onto the 7th spot in the West for a playoff bid, which should be more than enough victory for them to put the Wolves away without leaving any doubt.
|04-03-09||San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers +4.5||Top||126-121||Loss||-105||5 h 27 m||Show|
20* Indiana Pacers +4.5
The Pacers have a good chance to cover and possibly win at home tonight against the San Antonio Spurs, who haven't had much luck traveling the Indiana (at least against the spread). The home team in this match up has taken 8 of the last 10 against against the number and I think the Pacers are in prime position to knock off San Antonio. The Spurs do a lot of things well, but Indy has an edge in offensive scoring, team free throw percentage, and, surprisingly, team rebounding. They've won 2 straight at home and I expect them to keep this game close as the Spurs have covered in just one of their last nine games as a favorite.
|04-03-09||Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 183||97-92||Win||100||2 h 32 m||Show|
15* on Heat/Bobcats OVER 183
These two teams have played three times this year and all three games have finished higher than this 183 total. There is no denying that Charlotte is playing some great defense, but Miami has scored 95 or more points in three straight games, while Charlotte has five straight at 93 or higher. This is one of those games I feel like there is a high percentage chance it goes over, but it's not going to be by a lot of points.
|04-02-09||Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets -5||Top||104-114||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
20* Denver Nuggets -5
The Nuggets are looking for their fifth win in a row and are desperate to secure home court advantage in the playoffs. How well is Carmelo Anthony playing right now? He has 32.2 ppg over his last five and is carrying this team on his shoulders. The Nuggets are up to the No. 2 spot out West but are just a few games up on the seventh spot, so they know a strong finish can put them in a great spot to make a playoff run. The Jazz on the other hand have lost five of their last six road games and are coming off a game in which they allowed the Blazers to shoot 63% from the floor. Denver has been scoring a lot of points lately, and shouldn't have a problem tonight against a Jazz team that currently stop anyone.
|04-01-09||Sacramento Kings +8.5 v. Golden State Warriors||Top||141-143||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
20* Sacramento +8.5
I imagine this isn't going to be a popular pick with the Kings playing on back-to-back nights, but last night against the Hornets they proved that they are not ready to give up on their season just because of their terrible record. On the other hand you a lot of injuries for the Warriors, who will be without Stephen Jackson the rest of the year as he is battling a toe injury. The Warriors have lost five in a row and are playing no defense at all, giving up 99 or more pints in every game since allowing Minnesota to score "only" 94 back on March 3rd. Take the points tonight as the Kings won in Oakland back in the middle of January and they just might do it again tonight.
|04-01-09||Washington Wizards v. Memphis Grizzlies -2.5||107-112||Win||100||7 h 34 m||Show|
15* Memphis -2.5
Even though Gilbert Arenas has returned to play a few games, he's been downgraded to doubtful for tonight and likely won't be on the floor. That just adds to the laundry list of injuries for Wizard players, which should give the edge to the Grizzlies on their home floor. Memphis has won two out of their last three games, with wins over other bottom feeders in Golden State and Sacramento on the road. No reason they can't pick up the W here at home tonight. In early February, Memphis came out on top 113-97 in Washington, and the result is likely going to be similar tonight in the FedEx Forum.
|04-01-09||Charlotte Bobcats +8.5 v. Boston Celtics||109-111||Win||100||6 h 4 m||Show|
15* Charlotte +8.5
The Bobcats are coming off a big win last night against the LA Lakers and they still believe they have a shot at the playoffs. Boston on the other hand is unraveling with the news that Kevin Garnett will miss at least the next few games. That's not good news for a team trying to get things figured out for a playoff run. Even though Glen Davis has filled in with a couple double doubles the past two games, Garnett is the center of this team and they are nowhere near as good with him on the sidelines. The Bobcats beat Boston in January on their home floor and I think they'll keep it within single digits tonight as well.
|03-31-09||New Orleans Hornets v. Sacramento Kings +6.5||111-110||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
15* Sacramento Kings +6.5
New Orleans hasn't played well against the poor defensive teams this year, going just 7-16 ATS against teams allowing opponents to shoot better than 46% and 2-10 ATS against teams allowing more than 103 ppg. The Kings have been horrible this year with their 16-56 record, but have been better at home with an 11-25 mark. The Hornets are slightly above .500 on the road, so laying this many points to anyone for them is a stretch. I'll take the points here.
|03-31-09||Utah Jazz v. Portland Trail Blazers -5.5||104-125||Win||100||9 h 3 m||Show|
15* on Portland Blazers -5.5
I keep going back to these Jazz games with the free picks and it hasn't turned out so well, but I like them to go down tonight against Portland. Utah hasn't beaten a single Western Conference playoff contender on the road this year, and it's too late in the year to think something is going to change for tonight. The Jazz are 0-14 on the road against teams above .500 and 0-9 against above .500 teams in the Western Conference. Portland is 15-2 in their last seven games games and are coming off a 86-66 win over Memphis the other night. Utah lost by 14 points at the end of January in Portland and I see a similar result taking place tonight.
|03-31-09||Utah Jazz v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 192||104-125||Win||100||6 h 12 m||Show|
15* on Utah OVER 192
You have to like the OVER here with a Utah team that has scored 99 or more points in each of their last six games. The reason this line is so low is that Portland just held Memphis to 66, but the two home games before that gave up 114 and 109 while scoring 108 and 129. The Blazers are putting up 103 ppg this year at home, while the Jazz are scoring 102 on the road and giving up 105 away from home. All this adds up to quite a few points tonight, so ride the OVER.
|03-31-09||Los Angeles Lakers v. Charlotte Bobcats +6||Top||84-94||Win||100||6 h 4 m||Show|
20* Charlotte Bobcats +6
I'll take the points here tonight as I think the Bobcats will slow the tempo of this game down and keep it close with the Lakers. Charlotte is 13-5 ATS against teams who average more than 83 shots per game this year and 20-11 ATS against teams who score more than 99 ppg. The Bobcats are also 8-1 ATS after allowing 85 points in their last game and 14-6 ATS when coming off a home win. Last time out they beat New York 96-85 in Charlotte and beat Philadelphia by five points up in Philly the game before that. I'll take the points here in what should be a close one even with Kobe back in the lineup.
|03-31-09||Detroit Pistons v. Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5||Top||73-79||Loss||-110||6 h 4 m||Show|
20* Cleveland Cavs -9.5
The Cavs have been buckling down on defense, allowing four straight opponents to shoot less than 42% from the floor, including the 36.2% they held Dallas to the other night. Cleveland is 8-0 ATS after holding three straight opponents to less than 42% shooting this year and the fact that this game is at home, where the Cavs are 35-1 SU and 24-12 ATS makes this one even more appealing. Detroit has been struggling on the road, and they are dealing with an onslaught of injuries. There just isn't any way they keep this game close tonight against the Cavs, so I'll lay this large number of points.
|03-31-09||Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers -2||85-98||Win||100||3 h 14 m||Show|
15* on 76ers -2
I'm going with Philadelphia tonight, who is 21-15 at home this year and have won four of their last five on their home floor. The Hawks have lost six of their last seven games on the road, with that one win coming at Washington. With Atlanta just 14-22 this year as a visitor, I think you have to expect Philadelphia to win this game tonight.
|03-30-09||Milwaukee Bucks v. New Jersey Nets -3.5||Top||107-78||Loss||-100||7 h 51 m||Show|
20* No Doubt Rout on New Jersey Nets -3.5
I'm going to fade the Milwaukee Bucks yet again, and as profitable as that has been lately why not. Without Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut, the Bucks have lost five in a row and 10 of their last 12. The last three games on the road have been extremely bad, with Milwaukee giving up more than 100 opints in each and allowing opponents to shoot 49.1% from the floor. Of course, those three losses have just extended the team's losing streak as a visitor to seven gaems. The Bucks have covered just one time in their last 12 games, and have picked up the cash just one time in their last 10 meetings with the Nets. New Jersey wins this one in a blowout.
|03-29-09||Phoenix Suns -5 v. Sacramento Kings||118-126||Loss||-110||10 h 55 m||Show|
15* on Phoenix Suns -5
The playoff picture for the Suns isn't looking good right now as they are 4.5 games behind the Mavs for the final Western Conference spot with just 9 games remaining on the schedule. I don't think the Suns are ready to roll over just yet, and what better way to take out the frustration of a 2-game losing streak than to beat up on the worst team in the NBA? I'll take the Suns to win this one easily tonight.
|03-29-09||Dallas Mavericks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -9||74-102||Win||100||2 h 50 m||Show|
15* on Cleveland Cavs -9
With 10 games remaining on the regular season schedule for the Cavs and while they've nearly got the #1 seed in the East locked up, I don't think they want to take any chances, so they'll look to pull even further ahead of Orlando and Boston for the top playoff spot with yet another home win/cover.
|03-28-09||Phoenix Suns v. Utah Jazz -9||99-104||Loss||-101||10 h 40 m||Show|
15* Utah Jazz -9
Utah is looking to avenge a four point loss earlier in the week when they host the Suns today. The Jazz are on a 13 game home winning streak in which they are giving up under 91 ppg and opponents have reached the century mark just once, and that was the LA Lakers. The Suns had been playing pretty well, winning six in a row, before getting blown out by Portland the other night. Utah has been off since their loss against Phoenix, but you can bet they have a game plan that doesn't call for them to get beat so badly on the break like they did down in Phoenix. Jazz get their revenge and a double digit win tonight.
|03-28-09||Milwaukee Bucks v. Miami Heat -8.5||Top||85-102||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
20* NBA No Doubt Blowout on Miami Heat -8.5
The Milwaukee Bucks continue to struggle since having injuries completely dismantle the starting lineup, winning just one game ATS in their last 11 games. The Heat have lost two in a row, but both of those games came on the road, but a return to Miami might be just what the doctor ordered as the team has won five in a row down in South Beach. The Bucks beat the Heat down here earlier in the year, and the players will be out for a little revenge today by putting together a double digit win.
|03-27-09||Memphis Grizzlies v. Sacramento Kings -3||113-95||Loss||-102||9 h 47 m||Show|
15* on Sacramento Kings -3
Two bad teams here but I'll take the home squad to win. Memphis has lost five in a row, and their last game against the Kings ended with them losing by 9 in Memphis. The Kings haven't been playing great either, but at home they are better and have been competitive against some quality opponents. The Grizzlies are just 5-29 on the road and won't be able to keep up with the high scoring pace Sacramento is going to set tonight.
|03-27-09||Memphis Grizzlies v. Sacramento Kings OVER 207||113-95||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
15* on Grizzlies/Kings OVER 207
I like Sacramento to set the pace tonight and that means there are going to be a lot of points so I'm going to take a stab with the OVER tonight as well.
|03-27-09||Denver Nuggets v. Dallas Mavericks -4||103-101||Loss||-105||3 h 47 m||Show|
15* on Dallas -4
The Mavs are fighting to stay ahead of the Suns in the Western Conference playoff race, and I see them playing all out tonight in front of their home crowd. The Nuggets are 19-18 on the road this year while Dallas is 26-8 on their home floor.
|03-27-09||Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic -12||94-110||Win||100||6 h 47 m||Show|
15* on Orlando Magic -12
The Bucks haven't been a very good road team this year, going 11-25 outside of Milwaukee due to poor shooting and not scoring as many points. Orlando buckles down defensively when playing at home, giving up just 91.7 ppg and allowing just 42% shooting while piling up a 28-7 record. These two teams met a little over a week ago up in Wisconsin and the Magic put a 26 point beatdown on the Bucks. I think they win in blowout fashion again here tonight.
|03-27-09||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Toronto Raptors OVER 201||96-112||Win||100||1 h 18 m||Show|
15* on Thunder/Raptors OVER 200.5
I'll take the OVER here as both of these teams have been playing low scoring games recently, but overall this season the stats show this game should go easily over the total. Two bad teams who don't rely on defense will get a chance to showcase their offenses on Friday night.
|03-26-09||Los Angeles Lakers -8 v. Detroit Pistons||92-77||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
15* on LA Lakers -8
The Lakers are coasting since losing the the Sixers on their home floor back on March 17th, winning three straight and scoring 107 or more points in each game. They went to Oklahoma City last time out and won by 28, and faced the Bulls in Chicago, which is no easy task, and won by eight before that. Detroit on the other hand is free falling, losing five of their last six games. Once again tonight the Pistons will be without Rasheed Wallace, Allen Iverson, and Richard Hamilton and I think LA will roll over them.
|03-25-09||Utah Jazz +3 v. Phoenix Suns||114-118||Loss||-110||5 h 11 m||Show|
15* on Utah Jazz +3
I was thinking about passing on this game since the Jazz have only been 14-20 on the road this year, but the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last two meetings in this series and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 12. The Jazz have put together three straight wins and took care of the Rockets for us last night by 13 points. I know Phoenix has been playing better, but that has been against teams like Washington, Philadelphia, Golden State, and Oklahoma City. They also beat the Nuggets last time out but that game was a close battle. I'll take the points and ride the better team here tonight.
|03-25-09||Golden State Warriors v. Dallas Mavericks -9.5||106-128||Win||100||8 h 51 m||Show|
15* on Dallas Mavericks -9.5
It's tough not to like the Mavs playing at home, where they are 25-8 this year and taking on a Warriors team that is just 6-30 on the road. Bettors have been cashing in with Dallas at home, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight while fading the Warriors has a visitor would have given you an 18-8-2 record on their last 28 road games. The head-to-head matchups between these two teams have followed suit as the home team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Golden State's last three trips to the Big D have resulted in losses by 24, 25, and 22. Lay the points here.
|03-25-09||Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic UNDER 191||Top||82-84||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
20* NBA No-Brainer on Celtics/Magic UNDER 191
Boston has gone UNDER in 19 of their last 27 road games and I see that streak continuing tonight. These two teams played a few weeks ago with the Magic winning 86-79 in Boston, before that it was Boston 90, Orlando 80 down in Florida. When Boston plays on the road they buckle down on defense and with Kevin Garnett back I think they will make things tough on Dwight Howard tonight. This is going to be a low scoring game that won't make this high of a total.
|03-25-09||Denver Nuggets v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 196||101-88||Win||100||3 h 39 m||Show|
15* on Nuggets/Hornets UNDER 196
These two teams met at the end of January and the game ended with a final score of 94-81 falling way under the total. The Hornets have been a lower scoring team this year, giving up just under 91 ppg at home while scoring just 96.5 themselves. Over the last five games New Orleans is averaging 90.4 while giving up 91.6. I know Denver can score a lot of points and they have been lately, but this will be a slow it down type of game where the home team dictates the pace.
|03-25-09||Charlotte Bobcats -6.5 v. Washington Wizards||93-95||Loss||-106||7 h 6 m||Show|
15* on Charlotte Bobcats -6.5
The list of Wizards injuries are starting to pile up as they are starting to look more like an NFL team than an NBA one with all of their stars sidelined. Caron Butler's hamstring, Juan Dixon's ankle, Gilbert Arena's knee, Etan Thomas's knee, and Brendan Haywood's wrist all have them questionable at best for tonight's game. That is a heavy burden fro Antawn Jamison to carry by himself and while he's doing a pretty good job he can't do it all on his own. Washington has lost five straight games and seven of eight. Charlotte lost pretty bad at home to Indiana the other night, but had rattled off three straight wins before that. The Wizards have packed it in so lay the points with the Bobcats tonight.
|03-24-09||Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz -5.5||Top||86-99||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
20* No Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -5.5
Hard not to like Utah tonight as they are 29-6 on their home floor while the Rockets are 18-17 away from home. The Jazz have beaten Houston three straight times in Salt Lake City and have gotten back on track with a couple wins following a tough three game stretch away from home. I'll go with the Jazz on their home floor tonight as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on 3 or more days of rest and 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a favorite of five to 10.5 points. The Rockets on the other hand are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 following a cover.
|03-24-09||Detroit Pistons v. Chicago Bulls -5.5||91-99||Win||100||7 h 8 m||Show|
15* on Chicago Bulls -5.5
The Bulls are coming off a close win last night in Washington but they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing back-to-back, plus Chicago is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at home. The Pistons are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against the Eastern Conference and 8-20 ATS when their opponents put up more than 100 in their last game. The Bulls have been a different team at home, going 21-12 while Detroit is 16-17 on the road. The Bulls have beaten Detroit three straight times in Chicago and they should make it four after tonight.
|03-24-09||Detroit Pistons v. Chicago Bulls OVER 190.5||91-99||Loss||-110||3 h 36 m||Show|
15* on Bulls/Pistons OVER 190.5
The Bulls have gone over in nine out of their last 12 at the United Center and in the last three meetings between these two teams a lot of points have been scored. Bulls scoring over 107 ppg over their last five and over 103 ppg at home while their defense hasn't been stellar. I see a lot of points being scored here so will play the OVER.
|03-23-09||Orlando Magic -6 v. New York Knicks||Top||106-102||Loss||-110||6 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA No-Brainer on Orlando Magic -6
I know I went down in flames with the Magic against the Knicks on Saturday, but I'm riding them again here tonight. Quentin Richardson went off for 33 points in that game but nobody else really stepped up. I think the Magic will make some adjustments to stop that from happening again. Orlando on the other hand had all five starters score 13 or more points, but Dwight Howard's foul trouble limited him to just 30 minutes and a low production day. He shouldn't have the same problem again tonight and that should mean big numbers and a big Magic win. The Magic are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 and 57-27-3 ATS in their last 87 on the road. With Orlando going 6-2 ATS their last 8 trips to New York and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 overall against the Knicks, I'm riding them again tonight.
|03-23-09||Memphis Grizzlies v. Miami Heat -9||82-94||Win||100||6 h 25 m||Show|
15* on Miami Heat -9
Memphis has dropped four straight since surprising the Pistons in Detroit, but had lost four in a row prior to that win as well. Miami on the other hand finished their four game road trip with a win in Detroit, which came as a surprise after dropping their first three games. The key has been Dwyane Wade's hip, but he looks healthy now as he put up 39 points in 38 minutes against Detroit. Everyone else in the starting lineup put up some pretty decent numbers as well, so I think the Heat as a team to overpower a Grizzlies lineup that won't be scaring anyone. Memphis is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 on the road as an underdog of between five and 10.5 points while the Heat are 19-9 ATS in their last 29 games against teams winning less than 40% of their games.
|03-23-09||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Atlanta Hawks -11.5||97-109||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
15* on Atlanta 15* Hawks -11.5
How bad did the Timberwolves yesterday playing at home against the Thunder? Sure a massive run in the fourth quarter cut a 30 point lead down to seven, but all that did was make people forget who weren't watching just how bad this team is. Atlanta on the other hand has won seven of eight, with that sole loss being last time out in Cleveland, giving the Hawks eight straight covers. This team is peaking at the right time, and if Minnesota hasn't packed it in then I would be surprised. The Wovles are 1-4 ATS in their last five against the East and 3-13 ATS against opponents who allowed 100 or more in their last game. Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six tries against the West and 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record.
|03-23-09||Chicago Bulls v. Washington Wizards +8||101-99||Win||100||1 h 4 m||Show|
15* on Washington Wizards +8
The Bulls are just 11-26 on the road so I don't think they should be laying this number of points to anyone, even if it is the Wizards playing without Caron Butler. Washington is riding a four game losing streak, but all of those games came on the road, and this one will be played in DC where a month ago they took care of the Bulls by 23 points.
|03-22-09||Philadelphia 76ers -4 v. Sacramento Kings||112-100||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
15* on 76ers -4
Philadelphia is 14-19 on the road this year but that's a better mark the the Kings at 10-23 at home. Sacramento is just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 at home and 1-8 ATS against the Atlantic Division. The Sixers have lost a couple of tough games here on the West Coast against the Suns and Warriors after beating the Lakers in the first game of their swing. I'm expecting them to take care of business here against a Kings team that has won just a single time in their last six games.
|03-22-09||Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5 v. New Jersey Nets||96-88||Win||100||16 h 17 m||Show|
15* on Cleveland Cavs -6.5
The Cavs put together their eight straight win since losing at Boston back at the beginning of the month and should be able to win big on the road in New Jersey here on Sunday. The Nets have won two straight, but had dropped four in a row before their recent successes against the Heat and Knicks. LeBron James is a good enough defender to limit Vince Carter in this game, with no other player on the Nets being a real offensive threat now that point guard Devin Harris is sidelined. I'll lay the points here and feel comfortable the Cavs win in a blowout.
|03-22-09||Oklahoma City Thunder -1 v. Minnesota Timberwolves||Top||97-90||Win||100||14 h 47 m||Show|
20* on Oklahoma City Thunder -1
I know that the Thunder have been pretty bad on the road this year, but here is a chance for Oklahoma City to build some experience with a victory. You just can't like what you see when you look at Minnesota's lineup with Randy Foye and Kevin Love being the only two quality players, and Love is a rookie. The thunder on the other hand have some talent with Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, and now Russell Westbrook running the point. The Thunder have covered 20 of 32 trips on the road this year, while the Wolves are just 10-24 in front of their home crowd. Oklahoma City is 14-3 ATS after a non-cover while the Wolves are 2-11 ATS at home against teams with losing records.