Jack Jones NBA Picks
|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-25-09||Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics UNDER 188.5||Top||110-113||Loss||-104||3 h 3 m||Show|
20* on 76ers/Celtics UNDER 188.5
Boston is allowing their opponents to score almost seven points less per game than their season average, while they themselves put up 1.5 ppg less than their opponents normally give up. The 76ers avg. a full point less than their opponents allow, despite giving up 4 points more. Boston is a veteran team who knows that they need to keep the pace slow tonight and not let the younger Sixer team turn this into a track meet. That means they will control the tempo, slow it down, and secure the win.
|11-25-09||Toronto Raptors v. Charlotte Bobcats -2||81-116||Win||100||3 h 34 m||Show|
15* on Charlotte Bobcats -2
I'd take advantage of this soft line on the Bobcats tonight. The team is on a bad losing streak, but they have played some tough teams during that stretch. The Bobcats are 4-2 at home, with their only losses coming to Orlando and Portland, two teams who are a step up from the Raptors. Toronto is just 2-6 away from Canada this year. The rest edge also goes with Charlotte, as they have had a couple of nights off compared to Toronto playing their third time in four nights.
|11-25-09||Los Angeles Clippers v. Indiana Pacers OVER 203||73-86||Loss||-110||3 h 34 m||Show|
15* on Clippers/Pacers OVER 203
We know that the Pacers like to run as this team is both scoring and giving up more than 99.8 points per game on the season. The Clippers have struggled a bit offensively, but expected back is Eric Gordon, who was an offensive spark plug before hurting his groin. These two teams played to some extremely high totals last year, with both games sailing over the 200 point mark. I think this one is fast-paced and high scoring.
|11-24-09||Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards OVER 198||Top||107-108||Win||100||2 h 35 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Wizards OVER 198
The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Washington. This trend really stands out, especially with a total of less than 200 points tonight. That leaves the value here with the OVER. Looking back, I find that the last 6 meetings in Washington have all resulted in 202 or more combined points. The 76ers are 12-3 OVER in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Washington is 34-19 OVER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 3 seasons. With the evidence presented, I see no way this thing stays under 200 combined points. Take the OVER.
|11-20-09||Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics UNDER 192||83-78||Win||100||3 h 30 m||Show|
15* on Celtics/Magic UNDER 192
In this huge Eastern Conference showdown, both the Celtics and Magic will step it up defensively. Both squads are already solid on this end of the floor, with the Magic allowing 94.7 points/game and the Celtics giving up 88.8 points/game. Neither team is really lighting it up offensively, and the Magic have been terrible on the road in scoring just 93.4 points/game. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings, with the highest point total being 189 points. Take the UNDER.
|11-20-09||Memphis Grizzlies v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 194||Top||102-97||Win||100||2 h 30 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Grizzlies OVER 194
These teams should have no problem combining to score more than 200 points tonight. The 76ers are 17-7 OVER versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies have improved dramatically on offense this season, scoring 100.2 points/game and shooting nearly 47% from the floor. They average 105.2 points/game on the road, but also give up a ridiculous 117.3 points/game away from home. The 76ers are not a good defensive team, either, giving up 100.7 points/game this season. I foresee both squads putting up at least 100 in this one. The OVER is 7-1 in 76ers last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 6-1 in 76ers' last 7 games vs. the Western Conference. Take the OVER.
|11-19-09||Utah Jazz v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 202||Top||90-83||Win||100||21 h 31 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday Total ANNIHILATOR on Jazz/Spurs UNDER 202
Both the Spurs and Jazz played last night, so each of these elder teams will come in on tired legs. That means poor shooting and less points, making this an ideal spot to side with the UNDER. It's also worth noting that Tony Parker is doubtful Thursday with an ankle injury. San Antonio will not be able to push the tempo without him, and they managed to score just 84 points in regulation last night against Dallas with Parker out of the lineup. This is going to be a half-court game with less than 200 combined points scored. The UNDER is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. Take the UNDER.
|11-18-09||New Jersey Nets v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 188.5||85-99||Win||100||4 h 40 m||Show|
15* on Nets/Bucks UNDER 188.5
The Nets have so many injuries that they just cannot get anything going offensively. It will be tough to get sledding again here tonight against a Milwaukee team that is allowing just 96 points/game this season. The Nets score 84.4 points/game on average, but defensively they have been solid, giving up 94.5 points/game overall. New Jersey has scored 83 or less points in 5 straight games, and they have failed to reach 100 points in 8 straight. But they have allowed 91 or less points in 5 straight games, so their 0-11 record is not because of a lack of effort on the defensive end. The UNDER is 9-2 in the Nets' 11 games this season, and they have gone UNDER the number in 6 straight. The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between these teams, and the UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Milwaukee. Take the UNDER.
|11-18-09||Golden State Warriors v. Boston Celtics UNDER 210||Top||95-109||Win||100||3 h 11 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors/Celtics UNDER 210
Look for the Celtics to clamp down defensively tonight after losing back-to-back games. They gave up 97 points at Atlanta, and gave up 113 points in Indiana in their last two contests, respectively. I look for the Celtics to hold the Warriors to less than 90 tonight in what will be a defensive battle. Golden State just played in Cleveland last night, and they'll be playing on tired legs in Boston. The Celtics allow just 88.3 points/game this season despite their recent struggles. They've had 3 days' rest in between games to prepare for the Warriors, and to get back to focusing on the defensive end of the floor. That work will pay off tonight. The Warriors are 11-2 UNDER in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. This total has been inflated tonight so let's take advantage. Take the UNDER.
|11-17-09||Chicago Bulls v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 198||Top||101-87||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Kings UNDER 198
It's safe to say that the Bulls are a terrible offensive team and a great defensive squad this season now that they are 9 games into the season. The Bulls score 89.2 points/game and allow 92.3 points/game this year, and the UNDER is 7-2 in their 9 games. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between the Bulls and Kings, where they have failed to combine to score more than 197 points in 5 of those 6 contests. Chicago is 19-6 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons. Sacramento is 18-6 UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER.
|11-17-09||Indiana Pacers v. New Jersey Nets OVER 190||91-83||Loss||-115||4 h 22 m||Show|
15* on Pacers/Nets OVER 190
The OVER is 19-9 in the last 28 meetings between the Pacers and Nets in New Jersey. The OVER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings overall. This is typically a high-scoring series, and with a total at just 190 points all value is with the OVER. Indiana is 11-2 OVER in road games after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. New Jersey is 21-7 OVER after allowing 90 points or less 4 straight games since 1996. The Nets have been playing good defense of late, but now they run into a Pacers' team that has scored 101 or more points in 4 straight games. Take the OVER.
|11-17-09||Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 213||108-114||Win||100||4 h 52 m||Show|
15* on Warriors/Cavs OVER 213
The numbers don't like, the Golden State Warriors can light it up offensively, but they cannot stop anyone on defense. Golden State is scoring 111.6 points/game while allowing 113.7 points/game this season. They allow 117.4 points/game on the road as well. The OVER is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. The OVER is 13-4 in Warriors last 17 games following a S.U. loss. The OVER is 7-1-1 in Cavaliers last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the OVER.
|11-16-09||Charlotte Bobcats v. Orlando Magic OVER 182||Top||91-97||Win||100||3 h 46 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Bobcats/Magic OVER 182
With Orlando scoring 106.6 points/game at home and giving up 96.6 points/game on their home floor this season, the Magic are 4-1 OVER in 5 home games. I see a great opportunity to capitalize on a very low total here tonight as Charlotte visits Orlando. The Magic will control the tempo at home tonight, and they like to get out and run to maximize their talents. Charlotte will be forced to try and keep up with them, because the Magic won't allow this game to get in a half-court battle. The Bobcats are 16-5 OVER after allowing 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Orlando is 25-9 OVER after allowing 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Both teams are coming off great defensive efforts, which has forced the odds makers to set this total much lower than it really should be. The value is with the OVER tonight and that's why I'll take the OVER.
|11-13-09||Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 211.5||Top||79-105||Win||102||6 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA on ESPN TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Nuggets UNDER 211.5
The Lakers come in tired after running with the Phoenix Suns last night, and they are still without Pau Gasol which makes them a much less dangerous offensive team. This is a rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals, which means that the intensity on the defensive end will be amplified. Throw in that the Lakers are playing on tired legs so they'll be a bit "off the mark" offensively, and this makes for a great spot to play the UNDER. The UNDER is 12-5 in all meetings over the last 3 seasons, and the UNDER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Denver. The UNDER is 10-3 in Nuggets last 13 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the UNDER.
|11-13-09||Utah Jazz v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 196.5||112-90||Loss||-110||2 h 16 m||Show|
15* on 76ers/Jazz UNDER 196.5
Neither the Jazz nor the 76ers have been able to execute very well offensively this season. Both squads are averaging less than 100 points/game this year, with Utah putting up a mere 92.7 points/game on the road and Philly scoring 96.2 points/game at home. Philly is 22-10 UNDER as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the 76ers are 13-4 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 6-1 in 76ers last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the UNDER.
|11-12-09||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Miami Heat UNDER 180.5||Top||111-104||Loss||-110||4 h 30 m||Show|
20* NBA on TNT Total Dominator on Cavs/Heat UNDER 180.5
Cleveland just played last night in Orlando, so they'll be playing on tired legs tonight in Miami. That doesn't bode well for Cleveland scoring a lot of points against an improved Miami defense. The Heat are allowing just 88.6 points/game this season. The Cavs remain one of the best defensive teams in the league again this year, allowing 90.2 points/game. Neither team is really lighting it up offensively, as both average less than 98/game. The Heat are 15-4 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Cavs are 30-14 UNDER in road games off an upset win as a road underdog since 1996. The UNDER is 6-1 in Cavaliers last 7 overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 14-2 in Miami's last 16 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Miami. Take the UNDER.
|11-11-09||Denver Nuggets v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 197||102-108||Loss||-110||3 h 45 m||Show|
15* on Nuggets/Bucks UNDER 197
Milwaukee is a solid defensive team this season that is having problems scoring the basketball. But they have made up for their lackluster offensive play with defensive effort, giving up just 85.2 points/game. They score 90.4 points/game, and this is the way that Scott Skiles envisioned his team playing. He coaches effort and defense, and finally the Bucks have the right personnel to make it work. Denver is limiting their opponents to just 98.5 points/game on the road this season through 6 road games, so they have stepped up their play on this end of the floor after being called "soft" defensively last season. Denver is 14-4 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER.
|11-11-09||Utah Jazz v. Boston Celtics UNDER 189||Top||86-105||Loss||-108||2 h 15 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Total Annihilator on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 189
Boston is playing tremendous defense this season, not allowing second-chance points and forcing their opponents to work for every shot they get. They are allowing 84.4 points/game this season while scoring 98.5 points/game. When you do the math, the Celtics and their opponents are playing games on just under a 183-point average/game. We see Boston controlling the tempo at home in this one, making it a half-court game which plays into their hands. Rajon Rondo is a great defender, and he'll keep the Jazz' best player in Deron Williams in check all game long, not allowing Williams to get out and run the fast break. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Celtics last 17 vs. NBA Northwest division foes. The UNDER is 4-1 in the Celtics' last 5 games vs. the Western Conference. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings, including the 90-85 win by Utah last season which saw 175 combined points. Take the UNDER.
|11-11-09||Golden State Warriors v. Indiana Pacers OVER 224||94-108||Loss||-110||2 h 46 m||Show|
15* on Warriors/Pacers OVER 224
These are two teams that love to get out and run, but they are also two teams that don't put too much emphasis on the defensive end. This si especially true for Golden State, who gives up 113.2 points/game on the season and 121.5 points/game on the road. The Warriors are having no problem scoring though, putting up 110.7 points/game this season. Indiana has stepped up their offense lately, and the Pacers are 14-4 OVER in home games after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The last 3 meetings between these squads saw 237, 247 and 242 combined points, respectively. Take the OVER.
|11-10-09||Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 199||Top||103-121||Win||100||5 h 48 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday Total No-Brainer on Rockets/Mavs OVER 199
Hard not to like this OVER tonight between two teams that are averaging over 100 points/game this season. Houston is scoring 104.3 PPG while the Mavs are scoring 101.7 PPG, which improves to 105.3 PPG when playing at home. That's why this is a no-brainer to side with the OVER tonight. Also note that Dallas is 32-13 (71%) OVER in home games after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or less since 1996. 3 of the last 4 meetings in Dallas have gone OVER the total as well. Take the OVER.
|11-10-09||Denver Nuggets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 205||90-89||Win||100||4 h 17 m||Show|
15* on Nuggets/Bulls UNDER 205
The Bulls are playing a different brand of basketball this season, relying on their defense to win games. That's because they score just 88.5 points/game on the year. But the Bulls only give up 92.3 points/game overall and 85.3 points/game at home. Denver has been decent on the defensive end in road games, giving up 100.4 points/game away from home through 5 road contests. The UNDER is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. With a total above 200 points tonight, all value is with the under. Take the UNDER.
|11-10-09||Washington Wizards v. Miami Heat UNDER 185||76-90||Win||100||4 h 47 m||Show|
15* on Wizards/Heat UNDER 185
There's no questioning Miami's effort on the defensive end this season. Through 6 games, the Heat are allowing a solid 90.7 points/game. They are up against a Washington team that is averaging just 91.7 points/game on the road this year. In fact, the Wizards have scored 90 or less points in 4 straight games now. Clearly, they are missing Antawn Jamison who was their leading scorer last season. Miami has allowed less than 90 points in 4 of their last 5 games. I don't see both teams topping the 90-point mark, which favors a low-scoring game. Take the UNDER.
|11-09-09||Minnesota Timberwolves v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 215||Top||105-146||Loss||-107||5 h 17 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday Total Dominator on T'Wolves/Warriors UNDER 215
This is a match-up of two of the worst teams in the league when 1-6 Minnesota travels to 1-4 Golden State. Minnesota's offense is the big reason why this one stays UNDER the number tonight as they average just 91.3 points/game while shooting 43.1% from the floor and 29.3% from 3-point range. Both teams come into this one tired after playing Sunday. The T'Wolves lost 93-116 at Portland while the Warriors lost 107-120 at Sacramento. Look for both squads to be sloppy offensively tonight when playing on back-to-back days on tired legs. Minnesota is 20-9 UNDER after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 8-0 in Timberwolves last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 7-0 in Timberwolves last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 8-0 in Warriors last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER.
|11-06-09||Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 v. Houston Rockets||94-105||Loss||-110||4 h 5 m||Show|
15* on Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5
The Thunder are for real this season, opening the season 2-2 with their only losses against the Lakers and Blazers by single digits, two of the best teams in the West. This is a very generous line Friday and I'll look to take advantage on the underdog Thunder. They have put an emphasis on defense this year, and it's showing as OKC is allowing just 89.0 points/game. That even factors in their 98-101 overtime loss to the Lakers. The Thunder are 13-4 ATS in road games first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Thunder are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Southwest division foes. OKC is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Houston. Take the Thunder.
|11-06-09||Milwaukee Bucks v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 189||Top||87-72||Win||100||4 h 35 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday Total Annihilator on Bucks/T'Wolves UNDER 189
Two horrendous offensive teams meet up tonight in Minnesota in what figures to be a low-scoring affair. The Bucks score just 87.7 points/game this season while the T'Wolves are scoring 94.8 points/game. Those numbers get even worse when you specify home/away numbers. Milwaukee puts up 83.5 points/game on the road and Minnesota scores 90.7 points/game at home. Both teams are playing solid defense this year, with the Bucks allowing 89.0 points/game and the T'Wolves giving up 96.3 points/game at home. In fact, Minnesota held Boston to just 92 points last time out. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Bucks last 5 overall. The UNDER is 7-0 in Timberwolves last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 12-1 in Timberwolves last 13 games following a ATS win. Take the UNDER.
|11-06-09||Milwaukee Bucks v. Minnesota Timberwolves -2||87-72||Loss||-110||4 h 34 m||Show|
15* on Minnesota Timberwolves -2
Minnesota has played much better than their 1-4 record indicates. Despite being 1-4 SU, the Wolves are 4-1 ATS. They have 2 losses by 3 points or less, and 3 losses by 8 points or less. They lost by just 2 points against Boston last time out, blowing a big lead in that game. That loss proves they can play with the big boys, and Minnesota should make easy work of the Bucks tonight at home. Milwaukee is 1-2, scoring just 87.7 points/game overall and 83.5 points/game on the road. The Bucks are 5-18 ATS in road games against Northwest division opponents since 1996. The Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 2 days rest. The Timberwolves are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. The Bucks are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Minnesota.
|11-06-09||Toronto Raptors v. New Orleans Hornets OVER 205||107-90||Loss||-106||4 h 34 m||Show|
15* on Raptors/Hornets OVER 205
The Raptors are scoring at will this season, but their defense is suspect to say the least. Toronto averages 108.5 points/game while giving up 107.5 points/game. They have gone OVER the total in 3 out of 4 games. The Hornets are kind of in the same boat, scoring 101.0 points/game and giving up 105.2 points/game where they have gone OVER the total in 3 of 5 games. With the numbers presented, you can see why the value is with the OVER tonight between two high-scoring teams. The Raptors are 15-5 OVER when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is 17-6 OVER in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER.
|11-06-09||Washington Wizards +1.5 v. Indiana Pacers||86-102||Loss||-105||3 h 35 m||Show|
15* on Washington Wizards +1.5
Washington gets back in the win column tonight against an overmatched Pacers' team. Indiana has opened the season just 1-3, and a big reason is the injuries where Mike Dunleavy, Jeff Foster and Troy Murphy have all missed action. All 3 will be watching from the sidelines tonight, as well. In their last 2 games, the Wizards blew a 14-point lead to the Cavs on the road and lost by just 4 points at home to Miami in a game they led late. Look for the Wizards to take out their anger on this helpless Pacers' team tonight. The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Take Washington.
|11-05-09||Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers -11||86-85||Loss||-110||4 h 6 m||Show|
15* on Cleveland Cavaliers -11
Since dropping their first 2 games, the Cavaliers have responded by winning 3 straight by 11 points or more. Chicago is 0-2 in road games this season, getting outscored by the Celtics and Heat by an average of 18.0 points/game. The Bulls won't be able to keep this game close at all as they are clearly overmatched by the Cavaliers. They have nobody on their roster that can even slow down Lebron James. The Cavs are 23-8 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. When Cleveland gets on a roll, they are tough to slow down as proven by this trend, and they are clearly on a roll right now. The Bulls are 16-34 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Cavs are 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Cleveland.
|11-04-09||Los Angeles Lakers v. Houston Rockets +2.5||103-102||Win||100||4 h 50 m||Show|
15* on Houston Rockets +2.5
The Rockets are much better than they were getting credit for at the beginning of the year. Houston is off to a 3-1 start, with big wins over the likes of the Jazz, Warriors and Blazers. That's an impressive start considering 3 of their 4 games have been on the road. The Rockets still have a sour taste in their mouths after losing to the Lakers in the Western Conference Semifinals last year. They catch L.A. in a great spot here with the Lakers coming off an overtime victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night. Fatigue will be a factor for the Lakers, who are still playing without Pau Gasol. Houston will try to win this one for Trevor Ariza, who the Lakers simply let go in favor of Ron Artest. The home team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings. The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Rockets.
|11-04-09||Boston Celtics v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 186||Top||92-90||Win||100||3 h 20 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Total Annihilator on Celtics/Timberwolves UNDER 186
Boston is the best defensive team in the league this season, giving up just 79.8 points/game this year. This young, inexperienced Minnsota team likely won't be able to top that average tonight. The T'Wolves have averaged just 91.0 points/game at home this year. This game will likely result in a blowout, which should also result in reserves playing down the stretch and that favors the UNDER as well. The Celtics are 17-4 UNDER in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 12-3 UNDER in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 14-4 UNDER in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is not a team that gets a lot of free throw attempts because they shoot too many jump shots. That will also elimate easy points with the clock stopped. Boston is only shooting 19 free throws/game this season, so they aren't getting many easy points with the clock stopped, either. Take the UNDER.
|11-04-09||Miami Heat v. Washington Wizards UNDER 193.5||93-89||Win||100||2 h 21 m||Show|
15* on Wizards/Heat UNDER 193.5
The fatigue factor is in here as both Miami and Washington played last night. The Wizards lost 90-102 at Cleveland, while the Heat lost 96-104 at home vs. Phoenix. Look for both teams to amp up their defense after allowing their opponents to top the 100-point mark last night, and look for the fatigue to affect the shooting in this one as both teams shoot a low percentage on tired legs. The Heat are 46-27 UNDER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Miami is 17-4 UNDER after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Heat are not getting easy buckets in transition because they aren't forcing many turnovers. They are only forcing 13 turnovers/game. Washington has been even worse in that department, forcing just 10 turnovers/game which has eliminated their easy points in transition as well. This is going to be a half-court game with both teams slowing it down tonight. Take the UNDER.
|11-03-09||Los Angeles Lakers v. Oklahoma City Thunder +8||101-98||Win||100||4 h 3 m||Show|
15* on Oklahoma City Thunder +8
The Thunder are clearly improved this season now that the likes of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green are all a year older. They have opened the season 2-1 with wins over the Kings and Pistons. OKC has what it takes to hang with the Lakers tonight at home, and that's why I'll side with the Thunder as a nice home dog Tuesday. Kobe Bryant is questionable tonight with the Flu, while Pau Gasol is doubtful with a hamstring injury. The Thunder have stayed healthy, which is key because this team can compete with anybody when everyone is on the floor. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. OKC is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. Take the Thunder.
|11-03-09||Phoenix Suns v. Miami Heat UNDER 217||Top||104-96||Win||100||4 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Total No-Brainer on Suns/Heat UNDER 217
The Miami Heat have put a new-found emphasis on defense this season, and that's the reason they have started 3-0. Miami is giving up just 87.7 points/game this season and allowing teams to shoot just 38.6% from the floor. Playing at home tonight, the Heat will control the tempo and slow this one down because they know they do not want to get in a track meet with the Suns. The UNDER is 7-1 in Suns last 8 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The UNDER is 8-0 in Heat last 8 games following a S.U. win. The UNDER is 4-1 in Miami's last 5 home games. Take the UNDER.
|11-03-09||Boston Celtics -6.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers||105-74||Win||100||3 h 2 m||Show|
15* Boston Celtics -6.5
The Celtics are 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the 76ers. In fact, they have won 5 of those 8 games by 10 points or more. This has been a one-sided series, especially in Philly where the Celtics are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road meetings with the 76ers. Boston has won 3 straight games in blowout fashion by double-digits, and you can chalk up a 4th straight tonight as they improve to 5-0 this year. Take the Celtics.
|11-02-09||Memphis Grizzlies v. Sacramento Kings OVER 205||Top||116-127||Win||100||6 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Brainer on Grizzlies/Kings OVER 205
Two terrible defensive teams meet up Monday in the Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings. Memphis gives up 112.0 points/game this season, though they are scoring 104.0 points/game with solid offensive play. The Kings are allowing 104.0 points/game and opposing teams are shooting 51.9% from the floor through three games. The Grizzlies and Kings have combined to score more than 203 points in each of their last 3 meetings. The OVER is 8-1 in Grizzlies last 9 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento. Take the OVER.
|11-01-09||Memphis Grizzlies +11 v. Denver Nuggets||123-133||Win||100||3 h 45 m||Show|
15* on Memphis +11
|10-31-09||Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 193||93-84||Loss||-110||6 h 5 m||Show|
15* on Mavs/Clippers OVER 193
This Total has dropped 6 points since it came out. All value is with the OVER as the Mavs and Clippers combine to score more than 193 points tonight. The OVER is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 road games. The OVER is 20-6 in Mavericks last 26 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER 19-6-2 in Clippers last 27 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 18-7-2 in Clippers last 27 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the OVER.
|10-30-09||Golden State Warriors +5.5 v. Phoenix Suns||101-123||Loss||-105||5 h 39 m||Show|
15* on Golden State Warriors +5.5
The Warriors have a style that matches up very well with the Suns, and they have what it takes to keep this thing close and likely pull off the upset tonight. It also helps that Phoenix is missing a few key players in SG Jason Richardson and C Robin Lopez. 5 of the last 7 in this series have been decided by single-digits. The last 4 meetings in Phoenix, the Warriors have stayed within single-digits as well. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Warriors are 21-9-2 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. loss. Take Golden State.
|10-30-09||Toronto Raptors -2 v. Memphis Grizzlies||107-115||Loss||-105||3 h 39 m||Show|
15* on Toronto Raptors -2
It's already clear that Memphis is going to be one of the worst teams in the league again this year. It's also clear that the Raptors are going to be one of the most improved teams after beating Cleveland in their opener, 101-91. I watched that entire game, and the Raptors have playmakers and scorers all over the floor. I also watched most of the Memphis game, and this team shoots way too many jump shots and has a very hard time finding easy buckets in transition. The Grizzlies lost 74-96 in their home opener to Detroit. They do not match up with the Raptors well at all here. Toronto has won 4 of their last 5 meetings with Memphis. The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. The Grizzlies are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take Toronto.
|10-30-09||New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats -1||Top||100-102||Win||100||2 h 39 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -1
This is a very generous line for the home team in what will be a blowout win for Charlotte. The Bobcats had a tough opener in a bad loss at Boston, but they'll rebound at home here tonight against a Knicks' team that lost 93-115 in their opener to Miami. Charlotte is 50-28 ATS after scoring 85 points or less since 1996. They will have much more success offensively tonight against New York, who owns one of the league's worst defenses again this year. They allowed Miami to shoot 56.6% from the field while they shot just 37.9% from the floor themselves. Charlotte is a good defensive team, and they limited Boston to just 43.4% shooting despite the loss. The Knicks are 11-25 ATS in their last 36 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Bobcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Bobcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games overall. Take Charlotte.
|10-29-09||Denver Nuggets v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 200||97-94||Win||100||6 h 22 m||Show|
15* on Nuggets/Blazers UNDER 200
With the Nuggets playing on back-to-back nights, I really like this one to finish UNDER the total. Portland is a very good defensive team, and they'll control the tempo playing at home. The Blazers like to play a half-court game, while the Nuggets like to get out and run. With Denver playing back-to-back nights, I can't see them trying to run too much tonight. In their first game of the season Tuesday, the Blazers held the Rockets to just 87 points and 37% shooting. Portland is 27-13 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are 21-9 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 19-7 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings where these teams have failed to combine to score more than 196 points in all 4 meetings. The UNDER would be 6-0 in the last 6 meeetings had they not played an overtime game on 2/4/08. Take the UNDER.
|10-28-09||New York Knicks v. Miami Heat UNDER 207||Top||93-115||Loss||-110||4 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference No-Brainer on Knicks/Heat UNDER 207
The books have set this total off the mark Wednesday, basing this line off of how the Knicks played last season. But New York is a much better defensive team than they get credit for this season, with starters like Larry Hughes, Chris Duhon and David Lee who are known for their ability to play defense. The Heat are not an explosive offensive team, but they have players who play on the defensive end such as Udonis Haslem, DWyane Wade and Jermaine O'Neal. I look for this one to finish well UNDER the number tonight as both teams come out a bit rusty offensively. The Knicks improved dramatically on defense at the end of last season, going 7-1 UNDER in their final 8 games. The Heat followed suit, going 4-1 UNDER in their last 5 games. The UNDER is 11-1 in New York's last 12 games against Eastern Conference foes. The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Miami. Take the UNDER.
|10-28-09||Detroit Pistons v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 191||96-74||Loss||-110||4 h 31 m||Show|
15* on Pistons/Grizzlies OVER 191
Both the Pistons and Grizzlies have improved dramatically on the offensive end in the offseason. The Pistons lost some defense by getting rid of Antonio McDeyess and Rasheed Wallace, but they gained some offense by signing Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. The Grizzlies also added some offense with Allen Iverson and Zach Randolph, two players who live to score points. The OVER is 7-2 in Pistons last 9 games as a favorite. The OVER is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 games as a home underdog. These are two teams that have made the transition to put more focus on the offensive end, and less focus on defense. Take the OVER.
|10-28-09||Charlotte Bobcats +10 v. Boston Celtics||59-92||Loss||-108||3 h 1 m||Show|
15* on Charlotte Bobcats +10
Charlotte has had Boston's number against the spread recently, always playing the Celtics tough. With a double-digit spread tonight, all value is with Charlotte. Also look for Boston to have a hard time getting up for this game after winning in Cleveland last night. The Bobcats are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including a PERFECT 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Boston. Take Charlotte.
|10-27-09||Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -9||87-96||Push||0||7 h 52 m||Show|
15* on Portland Trail Blazers -9
This is a play against Houston as the Rockets will be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference this season. They are starting the year with both Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady injured, and they traded away Ron Artest on the offseason to the Lakers. Those were clearly their 3 best players from a year ago. Now they don't have the players on offense who can score a lot of points. The home team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings in this series, also giving the Blazers the edge. The Blazers finished last season going 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games, and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. Take Portland.
|10-27-09||Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 185||Top||95-89||Win||100||4 h 23 m||Show|
20* NBA 2009 Opening Night Total on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 185
Two of the best defensive teams from a year ago square off tonight. The Celtics gave up just 94.0 points/game on the road while the Cavs allowed a stellar 88.2 points/game at home. Both squads have gotten older in the offseason as the Celtics added Rasheed Wallace and the Cavs added Shaq. Both will be relying on their defenses to win games as both like to slow it down and play a half-court style. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Cleveland. Boston has failed to score more than 83 points in any of those 4 meetings. Take the UNDER.
|06-11-09||Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 201||99-91||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Magic UNDER 201
Good thing the last game in this series went over, so that way we can get a couple of extra points on the total and hop back on the UNDER train. Both of these teams shot unbelievable from the floor in Game 3, which is the only reason the game went over the total. That isn't going to happen against tonight as the Lakers will clamp down on their defense in order to pick up the win. Both of these teams have solid defenses, so points are at a premium tonight.
|06-11-09||Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 v. Orlando Magic||99-91||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
20* NBA Finals No-Brainer on LA Lakers +2.5
Orlando is coming off a game in which they shot 62.5% from the floor and they still managed to win by only four points. The Lakers still could have won the game if Kobe would have made his free throws. You had to expect LA to let off the gas a little bit after blowing Orlando out in Game 1 and then winning an emotional win in Game 2. This Laker team has a history of letdowns in these playoffs, but after a loss they have come back strong. No reason to think they won't do the same tonight and win in Orlando.
|06-07-09||Orlando Magic +7 v. Los Angeles Lakers||Top||96-101||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
20* NBA Finals BEST BET on Orlando Magic +7
You often see good teams bounce back after a game one loss so I'll take the points tonight. The Lakers came out determined to win game one after having lost both regular season meetings with the Magic, but you have seen LA suffer letdown after letdown this postseason after a big win, so why expect anything different tonight? You can't expect the Magic to shoot under 30% again, which was one of the reasons the score got so lopsided. The Magic are 15-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and I think they cash another ticket for us tonight.
|06-04-09||Orlando Magic v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 206||75-100||Win||100||6 h 6 m||Show|
15* on Magic/Lakers UNDER 206
Both of these teams have had some time off before this game, so I expect there to be some offensive rust. Also with that time off both teams and coaching staffs had plenty of time to game plan, so scoring should be at a premium tonight. I'll go with the UNDER.
|05-29-09||Los Angeles Lakers +5.5 v. Denver Nuggets||119-92||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
15* Lakers +5.5
I like the points here tonight since the Lakers seemed to turn the hump in Game 5, getting everyone involved in the offense for the balance that they need to take care of the Nuggets. I don't think Kobe and company really want to see this game head back to LA too badly so you'll see an all-out effort tonight. It's hard to believe the Lakers are catching so many points here since they are outscoring opponents by 4 points per game on the road this year and the Nuggets only outscored opponents by 8 at home. It seems to me like this line is a little inflated and should be around 3, showing us value in the high number.
|05-26-09||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic +2||114-116||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
15* Orlando Magic +2
I'm kind of baffled as to why the Magic are underdogs on their home floor after pretty much working the Cavs over so far in this series. The Magic have gone 12-1 ATS against Cleveland the last three years and should be up 3-0 here if James hadn't hit that last second shot in Game 2. So far Cleveland hasn't been able to find an answer for Dwight Howard down low, nor do they have anyone who can contain Terk or Lewis on the wing. Orlando causes matchup problems for Cleveland and the playoffs are all about matchups. LeBron is going to get his, but he needs help and there just isn't anyone else stepping up. Mo Williams took an elbow to the eye last game, so don't count on him stepping up. I'll go with Orlando to keep up their solid play again tonight.
|05-25-09||Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 208.5||Top||101-120||Win||100||11 h 39 m||Show|
20* Total Annihilator NBA Lakers/Nuggets OVER 208.5
Take the Over in tonight's Western Conference Finals game between the Lakers and Nuggets. The Lakers come into the game scoring just under 105 points per game on the road this season, while the Nuggets are averaging over 108 points per game at home this year. Neither team plays great defense, the Lakers giving up 100 points per game on the road, while the Nuggets give up 100 points per game at home, making this game look like another shootout. The last three games in the series have gone under the total, but not only were those all higher numbers to reach, in each game one team or the other shot uncharacteristically poorly from the free-throw line or from the floor, those points being the difference between the over and the under. Tonight look for and outpouring from both teams as they adjust to each others defensive schemes.
|05-24-09||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 189.5||89-99||Win||100||9 h 36 m||Show|
15* on Cavs/Magic UNDER 189.5
The UNDER is our play on Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday. The first game of the series was a 107-106 offensive explosion, while game 2 settled down to more of a defensive effort, ending just over the total with Lebron James's last-second 3-point make. Expect scoring to be at even more of a premium in Orlando, as the Cavs score less on the road, and both teams tend to clamp down more on defense in this particular situation. The majority of recent meetings have stayed under the total, and 22 of Orlando's last 32 games overall have been unders. Expect a correction tonight after two overs in the first two games of this series.
|05-23-09||Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 211.5||103-97||Loss||-110||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 211.5
Take the over in tonight's NBA Western Conference Championship game between the LA Lakers and the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets will keep the tempo going fast at home, just has they have all season, and the Lakers have the offensive firepower to run with them all night. The Nuggets score an average of 108 points per game at home, while the Lakers score about 104 points per game on the road this year. Both teams have surrendered around 100 points per game on defense. Both teams should easily go over the century mark and send this game well over the number.
|05-22-09||Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 188.5||95-96||Loss||-110||8 h 30 m||Show|
15* on Orlando Magic/Cleveland Cavs UNDER 188.5
Expect more of a defensive game tonight between the Cavs and the Magic. Game 1 went soaring over the 184 point total with 213 points scored. That final has the total set a little higher for Game 2. Both of these teams are very strong on defense, and both teams have played the majority of their games this season coming in under the total. Expect a slower pace and a much lower final score in Game 2.
|05-22-09||Orlando Magic +9.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers||95-96||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
15* on Orlando Magic +9.5
The Magic proved how dangerous they can be against the Cavs in Game 1, beating Cleveland on their home court. I'm not ready to hand the series to the Magic just yet, but I do think these games will be much closer than the odds makers think. These are very evenly matched teams up and down the line. The Cavs obviously have an advantage at home, but as long as the Magic keep all of the Cavs not named Lebron under wraps, they can make this another close game.
|05-21-09||Denver Nuggets +5.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||106-103||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
15* Nuggets +5.5
Denver should have won Game 1 and I'm expecting them to bounce back strong tonight just like they have in their other two playoff losses. The first was against New Orleans by 2 points which was followed by a 58 point rout, the second was a 2 point loss to the Mavs who they then beat by 14. Denver played physical defense in the first game and caused plenty of problems for the Lakers bigs. I don't see that changing tonight as the Nuggets continue to score easily down low and make things difficult for the Lakers.
|05-21-09||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 211||106-103||Loss||-110||10 h 19 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Lakers OVER 211
I'm backing a system that has gone 46-14 (76.7%) since 1996 that says to play the over if the total is 210 or greater and the road team is coming off a close loss by 3 points or less against an opponent who scored 105 points or more. The Lakers are 32-13 OVER off a close home win by 3 points or less since 1996 and 14-4 OVER coming off two straight wins at home this year. Denver is averaging 111 ppg in the playoffs while the Lakers are putting up 108 ppg at home on the season.
|05-20-09||Orlando Magic +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers||Top||107-106||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
20* NBA No-Brainer on Orlando Magic +9
Cleveland dominated both the Pistons and the Hawks but the Magic are a much better team than those two. With the Cavs having not played since last Monday I think you will see the team a little rusty tonight. I also like how the three meetings went this year, with Orlando dominating at home and the Cavs squeaking out a close one at home. Orlando led going into the final frame in all three games and they severely outscored the Cavs down low.
|05-19-09||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 214.5||103-105||Win||100||4 h 50 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Nuggets UNDER 215
The Lakers went UNDER in their last four games against the Rockets and I see that trend keeping pace tonight. The Lakers defense has picked it up recently, allowing just 87.2 ppg over their last five games and 97.2 ppg in all home games this year. Denver scores a lot more points at home than on the road, as evidenced by their 101.6 ppg mark as a visitor. The Nuggets are 27-10 UNDER the last three seasons against teams who outscore their opponents by 6+ ppg and you want to play the UNDER when a team led their previous game by 20 or more at the half against an opponent who put up 60 or more in the first half of their previous game. That system is 55-20 (77.3%) the last 13 years.
|05-19-09||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5||103-105||Loss||-110||4 h 47 m||Show|
15* on LA Lakers -6.5
There is some line value here with the Lakers tonight after the Nuggets ran through the first two rounds and went 10-0 at the pay window. This Lakers team dominated Denver during the regular season winning by 14 points in each of the first two home games despite shooting poorly from behind the arc. It should be no surprise since Kobe doesn't have anyone who can defend him like Battier did in the last series and the Lakers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against Denver and 18-6 ATS in their last 24. The Lakers got their wake-up call against Houston after they played half-ass in a couple of games. You'll see an all-out effort tonight in what should be a statement game that they are ready to contend.
|05-17-09||Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics OVER 186||Top||101-82||Loss||-110||11 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA No-Brainer on Orlando/Boston OVER 186
The line on this total has been over-adjusted after the low scoring game on Thursday, plus the fact that Game 7s tend to be a little lower scoring. These two teams have shot terrible from behind the arc in the last three games, and you can't expect that to continue with the way the teams shot during the regular season. Boston has put up 104.5 ppg at home this season and 103.7 ppg in the playoffs. The Magic average 100 ppg on the road and allow nearly 97. The total in this series has floated around 190 each game and that's where it should be here. Expect a close game and a lot of points.
|05-17-09||Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers -12.5||70-89||Win||100||6 h 21 m||Show|
15* on LA Lakers -12.5
I know LA has been flat in two games down in Houston this series, but I like their chances to win in another blowout this afternoon. The Lakers were 41-6 at home this season while the Rockets were just 22-25 on the road. You also have to like how the Lakers have bounced back from each of their postseason losses this year, going 3-0 both SU and ATS with a 40 point win in Game 5, a 13 point win in Game 2, and a 14-point win last series against the Jazz in Game 4. The Rockets on the other hand are 2-10 after a straight up win as an underdog this season, which shows they tend to have let downs after big games. You want to play on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite when they are on two days rest. That system is 54-15 over the last 5 seasons (78.3%).
|05-14-09||Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -6.5||75-83||Win||100||1 h 29 m||Show|
15* on Orlando Magic -6.5
The Magic know that they let one get away in Game 5 and should respond with an all-out effort tonight back on their home floor. I was on Orlando there and was disappointed in the last, since they outplayed Boston for nearly the entire game. I feel like the Magic have outplayed the Celtics for nearly the entire series. Boston has played several game 7s over the past two years, so how hungry are they going to be to close out the series tonight? I don't think they are worried too much about getting to go back to their home floor. Orlando on the other hand had a great year and their season is on the brink so a fast start and max effort to the end will be what I expect.
|05-12-09||Orlando Magic +3 v. Boston Celtics||88-92||Loss||-110||4 h 6 m||Show|
15* Orlando Magic +3
I think after watching the first four games there is no doubt in my mind that the Orlando Magic are the better team. Without Kevin Garnett the Celtics just don't have the interior defense to keep up with Dwight Howard. In Game 1 the Magic came out and dominated but then looked flat in Game 2 thinking they had done what they came to do, steal one in Boston. Game 3 was an Orlando rout before Boston bounced back and won on a buzzer beater in Game 4. The Magic have gone 29-17 ATS and 30-16 SU on the road this year so I'll take the points to the bank tonight.
|05-10-09||Boston Celtics +5 v. Orlando Magic||Top||95-94||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
20* No-Brainer on Boston Celtics +5
I like the Celtics to bounce back here in Game 4. They are 36-13 ATS the last there years on the road when revenging a loss. They got blown out in Game 1 by the Magic and then responded with a blowout of their own. This team couldn't have played worse defensively in Game 3 which won't happen again tonight. If you adjust the Magic's 59.1% shooting down to around 44% then this game would have been within a couple of baskets. Don't let that anomaly fool you into taking the Magic tonight as Boston is a veteran team who will come out strong tonight.
|05-09-09||Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks +9.5||97-82||Loss||-110||4 h 32 m||Show|
15* on Atlanta Hawks +9.5
The Hawks are a much better team on their home floor and they should be able to keep this one in single digits. Atlanta has covered 14 of their last 21 home games and covered both home games against the Cavs this year. The general public is all over the Cavs and that's why this game is so over-inflated. The home team has gone 14-2 both SU and ATS in Atlanta's playoff games the last two years. I'll take the points.
|05-09-09||Denver Nuggets +3.5 v. Dallas Mavericks||106-105||Win||100||3 h 54 m||Show|
15* on Denver Nuggets +3.5
Dallas just hasn't had any sort of answer for Denver so far in this series and that isn't going to change with the location. So far the Nuggets are outscoring the Mavericks 54-13 in fastbreak points and are 6-1 this postseason with an average margin of victory of 25 points. Josh Howard is hurt and can't really play to his full potential and Dirk Nowitzki has to deal with a woman being arrested at his house the other night. This team doesn't need any distractions, since they are already over-matched. The Nuggets won 103-101 in Dallas back at the end of March and then 98-88 back in December. Basically take the generous amount of points here as this series won't last much longer.
|05-08-09||Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 v. Houston Rockets||Top||108-94||Win||100||5 h 27 m||Show|
20* NBA No-Brainer on the Lakers -1.5
The Lakers are going to be on a mission to take back the series here Friday night. The two games in LA were physical and that resulted in a few technical fouls and Fisher being suspended for Game 3. LA has plenty of point guard depth with Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar, so I'm not worried about Fisher sitting this one out. However, expect this game to be called tight, which favors the Lakers and their up-tempo style. Kobe took this team on his shoulders in Game 2, and he'll do the same tonight. Both Phil and Kobe know how important it is to get on top of the series and not dig themselves a hole at 1-2. LA is the best road team in the NBA and even though Houston does a great job of winning at home, the Lakers will show why they are the favorites to win the West with a convincing win tonight.
|05-07-09||Atlanta Hawks +13.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers||85-105||Loss||-110||8 h 60 m||Show|
15* Atlanta Hawks +13.5
There was a lot of action on Cleveland in game one and there will be a lot of money flowing in on the Cavs again tonight, which has forced the books to over-inflate this line. The Hawks were in a bad spot Tuesday as they had come off an emotional game 7 win against the Heat, while the Cavs swept the Pistons and got plenty of rest before the start of the second round. LeBron James got his MVP trophy awarded to him that night, and he was anxious to show a very pumped up crowd there wasn't going to be a let down in the playoffs. Six of the last eight games and three of the last four between these two teams have been decided by single digits so take the generous amount of points tonight.
|05-06-09||Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers -9.5||98-111||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
15* on LA Lakers -9.5
Houston played well in game 1, but the Lakers were a little rusty after having nearly a week off after finishing the Jazz early. Andrew Bynum drawing two quick fouls limited the team defensively and LA's 2-for-18 night from 3-point range was an aberration. The Lakers committed 26 fouls to only 14 for the Rockets, and Houston took advantage by making their free throws. Expect a hungry and motivated Lakers team tonight as they get out ahead and stay there for a double digit win.
|05-05-09||Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -11.5||Top||72-99||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
20* No-Brainer on Cleveland Cavs -11.5
The Hawks are a much better team at home than they are on the road, where they went 17-27 this season. The Hawks give up nearly four points a game more and score a point less per game outside of Atlanta. They gave up more than 100 both times the teams met in Cleveland this year. The Cavs on the other hand were an incredible 41-2 at home this year and beat teams by an average of 14.5 points. Defense is the name of the game since they allowed 87.7 ppg at home this year against teams who average 99.3. After sweeping the Pistons Cleveland had plenty of time to rest for this one, unlike the Hawks who had to battle it out with the Heat just to get to round two. Atlanta scored 78, 81, and 72 points in the three games in Miami, how are they going to keep up with LeBron and company tonight?
|05-03-09||Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks -5||Top||78-91||Win||100||3 h 10 m||Show|
20* No Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -5
I'll take the Hawks at home to close out their series with the Miami Heat. Atlanta has been nearly dominant on their home court against the Heat if you take away Miami's on win there last Wednesday. That game had the Heat shooting much better than they have all season from the floor, and I do not expect a repeat of that performance tonight. The Hawks have been one of the better teams in NBA when they are at home, earning a 33-11 record there (25-19 ATS) including the playoffs. Meanwhile we have a Miami team that has a 16-28 record on the road this season. What's interesting about this series is that none of the games have really been close. The spread has never played a factor, either the favorite won in a blowout or the underdog won outright. Hawks win on their home court, probably by near double-digits.
|05-02-09||Chicago Bulls +6.5 v. Boston Celtics||99-109||Loss||-104||10 h 21 m||Show|
15* on Chicago Bulls +6.5
This Boston team just isn't the same defensively without their heart and soul in the middle so even though the team has a decent record without Kevin Garnett they have given up about 10 more points per game. Chicago has made this a close and competitive series throughout, with only one game being a blowout. These two teams are very evenly matched and as such I'm going to take the generous amount of points here today.
|04-30-09||Orlando Magic v. Philadelphia 76ers -5.5||114-89||Loss||-110||3 h 31 m||Show|
20* NBA No-Brainer on Philadelphia -5.5
The Sixers have their backs against the wall, and tonight won't have to face Dwight Howard down low. I see the advantage clearly going to Sixers with Howard out, and add to that Courtney Lee's injury and Philadelphia is short-handed. Orlando has covered just twice in their last nine games and have played poorly even with those two in the lineup recently. I see them getting beat tonight as Philly forces a Game 7 in Orlando.
|04-29-09||New Orleans Hornets +11 v. Denver Nuggets||Top||86-107||Loss||-110||12 h 32 m||Show|
20* NBA No-Brainer on New Orleans Hornets +11
The public is going to be all over the Nuggets tonight, but the value is with New Orleans. First of all the team was embarrassed in their last game when they lost by a playoff record 58 points. That means they are going to be out for some redemption tonight, but it also means that Denver is going to be a little overconfident in how easy they can take care of this team on their home floor. Also, the game getting out of hand meant Chris Paul didn't have to play the 46 minutes he had to in Game 3. During the regular season the Hornets were 49-33, while Denver was 54-28. Only 5 games separated these two teams, which means this line is way over-inflated. Denver was only favored by 6.5 in the first two games and the Hornets were the chalk at home. Denver should win tonight, but closing out a team with a double digit win is difficult and I think the value here is with the Hornets.
|04-28-09||Houston Rockets +5.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers||77-88||Loss||-100||8 h 44 m||Show|
15* on Houston Rockets +5.5
Portland is the youngest team in the NBA playoffs and their backs are against the wall tonight, so I don't think you are going to see the same kind of resiliency that you would expect out of a veteran club. Instead, look for the Rockets to come out determined to make it out of the first round for the first time in 12 years. Yao Ming is giving Portland trouble down low, who don't seem to have an answer for him. Even when he's not scoring he's opening up the rest of the floor for his team. The Rockets shot over 50% both games in Portland, but also won shooting just 39% at home in Game 4 because they did such a good job on the boards and in not turning the ball over. Take the veteran team here who wants to close out this series as soon as possible.
|04-28-09||Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 189.5||106-93||Loss||-110||7 h 12 m||Show|
15* on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 189.5
Expect a strong defensive showing out of the Spurs tonight, who on the season hold teams to 7 points lower than their season average and held opponents to just 93 ppg on their home floor this year. Also, Dallas scores 8 points less per game on the road than they do at home. The Spurs have their backs against the wall, so expect them to slow the game down and make it a half-court defensive battle. This will mean a low scoring affair tonight.
|04-27-09||Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 211||Top||96-107||Win||100||6 h 60 m||Show|
20* on Jazz/Lakers UNDER 211
The Utah Jazz know that if they are going to stay close to the LA Lakers tonight they are going to have to step it up defensively like they did in Game 3. The Lakers on the other hand have done a great job of shutting down Utah all series long and I see that trend continuing tonight. I'm showing this total coming in around 205, so that is 6 points of value you see tonight which is worth a BEST BET for me.
|04-27-09||Denver Nuggets +2.5 v. New Orleans Hornets||121-63||Win||100||4 h 53 m||Show|
15* on Denver Nuggets +2.5
The points are too good to pass up here tonight. Chris Paul carried the Hornets in Game 3, but he logged 46 minutes so he has to have some tired legs for this one. You can expect Denver to do all they can to wear him out on both sides of the floor. The Hornets also have depth problems with both Tyson Chandler and James Posey battling injuries, and the bench not producing anything for them so far in the series. With New Orleans only playing 7 or 8 men deep it's not a good matchup taking on one of the best benches in the league and a deep Nuggets team. I see a bounce back win tonight for Denver.
|04-25-09||Atlanta Hawks v. Miami Heat -4||78-107||Win||100||8 h 54 m||Show|
15* on Miami Heat -4
The Atlanta Hawks are 0-11 in their last 11 road playoff games and have been blown out in 10 of those 11 losses. Last year against the Celtics Atlanta lost by 23, 19, 25, and 34 points despite going to Game 7. That's not a good trend when you look at the Heat are 23-6 in home playoff games since Dwayne Wade arrived. Miami was 28-13 at home this year while Atlanta was 16-25 away from Georgia. The Hawks are 1-9 ATS on the road off an upset loss as a favorite the last two years and I think the situation suggests a play on the Heat tonight.
|04-25-09||San Antonio Spurs +5 v. Dallas Mavericks||90-99||Loss||-110||5 h 21 m||Show|
15* on San Antonio Spurs +5
I like the Spurs to bounce back here. This is a franchise that has won four title since 1999 and were embarrassed the last time out by the Mavs. The good part about that was Greg Popovich got to pull out Tim Duncan and Tony Parker early in the third quarter, which means they should be plenty rested and ready to go here tonight. I'm going to play a solid system that says to take the team who was trailing by 15 points or more at the half in a game that combined for 160 points or less the following meeting. That system is 25-5 (83.3%) over the last five seasons.
|04-25-09||Denver Nuggets v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 197.5||Top||93-95||Win||100||3 h 32 m||Show|
20* on Nuggets/Hornets UNDER 197.5
This Denver team is playing great defense right now, with Kenyon Martin doing his job on David West and Chauncey Billups muscling up Chris Paul. You can't expect the Hornets to try and up the pace either, since they have a thin bench and Tyson Chandler isn't at full strength. With the Hornets back against the wall, expect them to try and slow the pace down to match their style, and since the home court does a better job at dictating the pace I think they will do exactly that.
|04-25-09||Denver Nuggets v. New Orleans Hornets -4||93-95||Loss||-110||2 h 28 m||Show|
15* on New Orleans -4
I think New Orleans dictates the pace today and gets the tempo down to a style that they can win with. The Nuggets are 21-20 on the road this year but have been outscored by their opponents. New Orleans was a solid 28-13 at home, scoring 5 more points per game than their foes and holding them to 6 points less per game than they did on the road. Denver has hit over 50% of their shots and over 50% from behind the 3-point line in the first two games of the series, but don't expect them to have the same kind of success here early in the morning against New Orleans.
|04-24-09||Portland Trail Blazers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 184.5||83-86||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
15* on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 184.5
Both of these teams play great defense and I expect the intensity to be brought up a level tonight. Houston has shot over 50% in both of the games in Portland, and htey also allowed the Blazers to shoot 51% in Game 2. I can't see either situation taking place tonight as Ron Artest and Shane Battier should do a better job of slowing down Brandon Roy and with Portland's size advantage now that Dikembe Mutombo is out, I see Portland trying to slow it down and banging it down low.
|04-23-09||Los Angeles Lakers -1.5 v. Utah Jazz||Top||86-88||Loss||-110||11 h 27 m||Show|
20* First Round Game of the Year on LA Lakers -1.5
I think the Lakers are on a mission this year and will want to put Utah out of their misery quickly. The first two games have followed the same pattern, LA dominates early and then coasts the rest of the game while Utah tries to catch up. The Lakers just have too much depth and the guys other than Kobe have been stepping up the first two games. Utah has to be feeling some wear and tear, plus they didn't get back home until 3 AM on Wednesday before practice at 11 AM. I know the Jazz were 33-8 at home and seemed to play like a different team in Salt Lake, but the Lakers have the best road record in the league at 29-12 and have shot above 55.6% in three straight games against the Jazz. Utah just doesn't have an answer defensively.
|04-23-09||Boston Celtics v. Chicago Bulls OVER 201||107-86||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
15* Chicago/Boston OVER 201
This total seems low to me. These two teams have now met four times since December and both teams have gone for more than 100 points in each of the contests. Even though the first playoff game got an overtime boost to get there, both teams shot uncharacteristically bad in that one. I don't see this one having a problem getting to 200.
|04-22-09||Miami Heat +5.5 v. Atlanta Hawks||108-93||Win||100||5 h 41 m||Show|
15* on Miami Heat +5.5
I don't think you can expect Dwayne Wade to be quite as bad here in Game 2 as he was in the series opener. I think he responds with a big one tonight and Miami is 10-1 ATS when coming off a road loss of 20 points or more. Anytime a team gets embarrassed you can count on their full attention in the film room and on the floor the next game, so I think Miami makes some adjustments and keeps this one close tonight.
|04-21-09||Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 183.5||103-107||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
15* on Rockets/Blazers OVER 183.5
I think the value is with the OVER once again tonight as these two teams have scored 189, 190, 192, and 200 combined points in their four meetings this year. Portland is scoring over 103 ppg at home while Houston is putting up and giving up 97 ppg on the road. To me the math works out to think the total on this game should have been four to five points higher, leading me to take the OVER.
|04-21-09||Detroit Pistons v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 178||Top||82-94||Loss||-110||9 h 49 m||Show|
20* NBA No-Brainer Total on Pistons/Cavs OVER 178
The Pistons tried but couldn't find a way to stop LeBron James in Game 1 and I don't see them getting the job done tonight either. Detroit's defense is over-rated, having given up 95 ppg on the road this year and nearly 100 ppg over their last five. The Cavs are scoring 102 ppg this year at home and nearly 108 ppg over their last five. I think this one sails over the total.
|04-20-09||Dallas Mavericks +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs||84-105||Loss||-110||11 h 56 m||Show|
15* on Dallas Mavericks +6.5
The value is with Dallas tonight as everyone expects the Spurs to bounce back from their loss to the Mavs in Game 1. This just isn't the same San Antonio team you have come to expect in the playoffs as Tim Duncan is severely hampered with his knee problems and Manu Ginobili being out due to the stress fracture in his ankle. The Mavs dominated the paint in Game 1 and would have blown out the Spurs if San Antonio didn't shoot so well from behind the arc. You can't expect to keep shooting that well from outside. Dallas was on a roll to end the season in winning five of their last six games and I think they will keep that momentum going tonight in San Antonio.
|04-20-09||Chicago Bulls v. Boston Celtics -8||Top||115-118||Loss||-110||8 h 26 m||Show|
20* NBA No-Brainer on Boston Celtics -8
I think the Celtics bounce back and win big over the Bulls here tonight. Chicago has to be happy that they got at least one of the first two games played in Boston, while the Celtics put up a horrible performance in Game 1 and still should have won the game if Pierce made have made his free throw at the end of regulation. This veteran team spent a lot of time watching film to shore up their mistakes and find Chicago's weaknesses. Ray Allen isn't going to shoot 1-of-12 again tonight and Derrick Rose isn't going to drop 36 points. The Bulls are 7-21 ATS off an upset win as an underdog the past two years while Boston is 31-13 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent the last three. Lay the number here.
|04-19-09||Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers -11.5||100-113||Win||100||5 h 3 m||Show|
15* LA Lakers -11.5
I'll go with the Lakers at home today, who are 16-3 against the Jazz in the Staples Center and have won six in a row in the series. This LA team just beat Utah by 13 points in what was a meaningless game for the Lakers, but one that had seeding implications for Utah. The Jazz lost seven of their last nine games to close out the season and probably won't have Okur tonight due to his hamstring injury. Okur was the team's second leading scorer and third in rebounding and blocks. He would be needed against a Laker team that has looked dominant with Andrew Bynum back on the floor. The Lakers have been beating teams pretty handily at home all year, while the Jazz have struggled outside of Utah so I'll lay the number here.
|04-18-09||Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -4.5||108-81||Loss||-110||11 h 20 m||Show|
15* on Portland -4.5
Why not lay the small number here with Portland? This team is 34-7 at home this year and winning by more than 10 ppg. Houston is 53-29 overall, but only 20-21 on the road. The Blazers have also won 10 out of their last 11 games, including wins over the Lakers, Nuggets, Spurs, and Jazz. This team is young, but should be up for a big performance in Game 1.
|04-18-09||Detroit Pistons v. Cleveland Cavaliers -12||84-102||Win||100||4 h 56 m||Show|
15* on Cleveland -12
I'll take Cleveland at home in Game 1. The Cavs were 39-1 on their home floor this year before resting their starters in the finale and losing in overtime. They are winning by an average of 14.3 ppg and have put 20+ point wins over the likes of Dallas, San Antonio, and Boston these past few weeks. The way they buckle up defensively I just don't see Detroit being able to score enough points to keep up so the Cavs will win this one in a blowout.
|04-15-09||Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 239||113-117||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
15* on Warriors/Suns UNDER 239
These are two very high scoring offenses and two very weak defenses, but this game should not go over the total as there isn't much motivation for either team to come out firing. Both teams have already slowed their scoring with both teams around 6 points off their season average over their last 5 games. Everyone will be looking at their most recent match up, a game that saw 284 points scored and everyone will jump on the Over, forgetting that neither team has anything to play for and that lack of intensity on offense should keep this game under the total.
|04-14-09||Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 207||112-125||Loss||-110||5 h 0 m||Show|
15* on LAkers/Jazz UNDER 207
Motivation will be low for the Lakers, who are locked into the #1 spot in the West, and cannot catch the Cavs for the NBA's best record and home court advantage throughout the playoffs. They should take to resting their starters as much as possible, which would result in a much lower point total. Utah's struggles on the road are well-documented, as they score much less on the road than they do on their home court. There won't be much urgency for either team here and I think the score stays well under the number.
|04-13-09||Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz -12.5||85-106||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
15* on Utah Jazz -12
The Jazz are one of the best teams in the NBA on their home court, and they'll be playing one of the league's worst road teams (well, worst overall teams) in the LA Clippers tonight. Utah is 32-8 at home this season, while the Clippers stand at just 11-29 on the road. The Jazz are looking to step up their game and catch the Mavs for the 7th spot in the Western Conference in the playoffs, so the motivation is there for them to make sure this one isn't close. The Jazz have won 3 straight in the head-to-head match up, both straight up and against the spread, with the narrowest margin of victory being 16 points at LA. Their last two meetings in Utah have been 20+ point wins by the Jazz, which is exactly what I expect tonight.