|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-10-18||Jets +7 v. Lions||Top||48-17||Win||100||127 h 36 m||Show|
20* Jets/Lions ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York +7
The Detroit Lions have been nothing but mediocre for decades. They have not won a playoff game in 26 seasons. They are kind of starting over this year with a new head coach in Matt Patricia. I don’t expect them to come out Week 1 hitting on all cylinders with new systems and new personnel in place. They certainly shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown against anyone in this league, not even the Jets.
The problem for the Lions is always defense and the lack of a running game. They are trying to change that this year, but it won’t happen overnight. The Lions ranked 27th in total defense last year and 32nd in rushing offense, averaging just 76.3 yards per game. They’re expecting Patricia to magically improve the defense, and for LeGarrette Blount and company to improve the running game.
I like the chemistry the Jets have with Todd Bowles. He enters his 4th season with the franchise and is 20-28 overall, but has been trying to upgrade the talent since he got here. That’s not a bad record for the shortage of talent that he’s had to work with. They are starting to turn the corner in that department.
The Jets used their top pick on Sam Darnold, and he’s expected to start Week 1. The future of the offense is bright now that they finally found their QB. Jermaine Kerse (65 receptions, 810 yards, 5 TD last year) and Robby Anderson (63, 941, 7 TD) provide an underrated receiver duo, and Terrelle Pryor only adds to it. Isaiah Crowell was signed this offseason to be the workhorse after rushing for 853 yards in Cleveland last year. The offensive line should be improved with the addition of center Spencer Long from the Redskins.
New York is loaded with playmakers defensively. Leonard Williams had the third-most QB hits (25) in the AFC last season. Steve McLendon is a solid run-stuffing nose tackle. The Jets replaced Demario Davis with a younger version of him in LB Avery Williamson, who had 92 tackles and 3 sacks with the Titans last year. Darron Lee improved greatly in his second season and will take an even bigger step this year. Second-year safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye are promising. The Jets signed former Rams No. 1 corner Tremaine Johnson to a five-year, $72 million deal. Morris Claiborne is a solid No. 2 corner opposite Johnson.
The fact of the matter is that there’s not much difference between the Lions and Jets talent-wise, so this spread should not be a touchdown. The Lions admittedly have the better offense, but the Jets clearly have the better defense. Detroit is 31-51 ATS in its last 82 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Jets are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall and come into 2018 underrated as well. Bet the Jets Monday.
Note: I recommend buying the Jets to +7
|09-09-18||Bears +7.5 v. Packers||Top||23-24||Win||100||104 h 48 m||Show|
20* Bears/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Chicago +7.5
I expect the Chicago Bears to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season. They went just 5-11 last year, but Mitchell Trubisky had nobody to throw to, and the coaching staff didn’t have a clue. Yet, they managed to beat three of the better teams in the NFL in the Steelers, Panthers and Ravens, and they took both the Falcons and Vikings down to the wire early in the season.
The Bears were competitive due to a defense that rank 9th in scoring and 10th in total defense. That defense will be very good again, especially with the addition of former NFL Defensive Player Khalil Mack via trade. They gave up a lot to get him with two first-round picks, but that won’t hurt them at all this season, only in the future.
Matt Nagy is the new head coach. He was the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs under Andy Reid, and he was the perfect hire for the Bears this offseason to inject some new life into the offense. Nagy will get the most out of Trubisky, who now has ample weapons to lead the offense. No team improved their playmakers this offseason more than Chicago.
The Bears added former Jacksonville No. 1 receiver Allen Robinson, who is primed for a bounce-back season after playing in just one game for the Jaguars before getting injured last year. New slot receiver Taylor Gabriel has 4.3-40 speed and will be missed in Atlanta. Trey Burton was stuck behind Zach Ertz in Philadelphia at tight end. But now he’ll have a chance to shine and take over the role that Travis Kelce played in Nagy’s offense in Kansas City. They used their second-round pick on Anthony Miller out of Memphis, and they still have former first-round pick Kevin White on their roster.
The Packers will be good as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy, but they should not be favored by more than a touchdown here against the Bears. Rodgers voiced his frustration this offseason with the lack of focus out of the receiver group, and he clearly wasn’t healthy they let one of his best friends in Jordy Nelson walk. They are also shopping Randall Cobb.
Devante Adams and Jimmy Graham are good targets for Rodgers, but outside of those two, the talent is pretty weak at receiver. And the Packers have never had a consistent running game.
Green Bay ranked 26th in scoring defense (24.0 PPG) and 22nd in total defense (348.9 yards/game) last season. While they did add some pieces on defense to try and help out, they lost two key pieces in the secondary in CB Damarious Randall and S Morgan Burnett. The loss of Burnett is a big one because he was a leader in the secondary for eight seasons and made the defensive calls.
They’ll now be relying on first-round pick Jair Alexander and second-round pick Josh Jackson at cornerback this season. Both could struggle early on. They brought in corners Tramon Williams and Davon House, but both are just stopgaps. Second-year CB Kevin King is coming off labrum surgery. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is the most experienced member of the secondary at safety, but he was dreadful last season. Second-year man Josh Jones and unproven Kentrell Brice are battling for the other safety position. There will be more holes in this secondary to say the least.
Plays against home favorites (Green Bay) who had a losing record last season, in conference games are 141-87 (61.8%) ATS since 1983. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Don’t be surprised if the Bears win this game outright as they are a team on the rise this season. But we’ll certainly take the 7.5 points without hesitation. Take the Bears Sunday.
|09-09-18||Seahawks v. Broncos -2.5||24-27||Win||100||100 h 51 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Denver Broncos -2.5
The Denver Broncos should be one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season. They are coming off a 5-11 season that was mired with awful quarterback play. The trio of Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch was about one of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL last season. That won’t be the case again.
Case Keenum parlayed his trip to the NFC Championship Game with the Vikings into a big contract with the Broncos this offseason. Keenum is better than he gets credit for, which was evident in Minnesota last year. And just like in Minnesota, Keenum has a great defense to fall back on, so he doesn’t have to do too much.
The Broncos wasted an elite defense last year. They ranked 3rd in total defense, giving up just 290.0 yards per game. And they will challenge for the top spot again in 2018. The Broncos got the steal of the draft when they nabbed Bradley Chubb from NC State with the No. 5 overall pick despite the fact that he was graded out as the best player in the draft.
Now the Von Miller-Chubb tandem at outside linebacker is as scary as it gets in the NFL. The “No Fly Zone” secondary features Pro Bowlers Chris Harris (CB) and Darian Stewart (S). The Broncos could afford to trade Aqib Talib because CB Bradley Roby is a future star and ready for a starting role. This is going to be a dynamite defense.
The Seahawks are a team in transition. The ‘Legion of Boom’ is no longer. Richard Sherman was traded to the 49ers, Earl Thomas is holding out and still looking to get traded, and Kam Chancellor is out for the season with a neck injury. Not to mention, DE Cliff Avril and DE Michael Bennett are both gone. This defense doesn’t look anything like the dominant unit it was a few years ago, and it will struggle.
The same problem remains for Seattle’s offense. They simply cannot run the football. Russell Wilson has a big season last year, but only because he had to. Wilson actually led the team in rushing, and by a wide margin. No Seattle running back had more than 240 yards last year. The offensive line is still a mess, and the options are limited at receiver, especially with the losses of Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson. That duo combined for 16 TD receptions last year.
The Seahawks will struggle to reach .500 this season with all that they’ve lost. And they have some other injury concerns heading into Week 1. LB K.J. Wright is doubtful with a knee injury, DE Dion Jordan is questionable with a shin injury, CB Byron Maxwell is on IR with a hip injury, and WR Doug Baldwin is nursing a knee injury but expected to play.
Pete Carroll is 1-9 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of Seattle. The Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine September games. The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six September games. The key to this game will be the Broncos’ domination up front on defense against Seattle’s weak offensive line. Russell Wilson will be running for his life. Take the Broncos Sunday.
|09-09-18||Jaguars v. Giants +3||Top||20-15||Loss||-100||96 h 28 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +3
I believe the Jacksonville Jaguars come in overrated after making the AFC Championship Game last year. They came out of nowhere to do it. They finished 10-6 in the regular season before barely getting by the Bills and Steelers, and almost upset the Patriots. Now they will be the hunted, not the hunters in 2018. And it’s clearly they are overvalued because they are opening as 3-point road favorites at the Giants.
New York, on the other hand, comes in undervalued off a disastrous 3-13 season. They were hit as hard by injuries as any team in the league last year. And head coach Ben McAdoo was not fit for the job. But this was a team that made the playoffs in 2016, so there is still a ton of talent on this squad. And they got even better in the offseason.
The Giants have improved most in the trenches. They nabbed four new starters along the offensive line, including LT Nate Soldier from the Patriots. They will have a running game now with that improved O-Line and the addition of first-round pick RB Saquon Barkley, who is sure to be a star in the NFL for years to come. Odell Beckham Jr. got his big contract, and now he’s back healthy this season. Eli Manning has everything he needs to succeed.
The Giants had one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2016. But injuries and poor play by the offense had the defense gassed last year. That stop unit should come back energized and get back to being one of the better defenses in the NFL in 2018. I love the addition of LB Alec Ogletree, who will become the QB of the defense after serving the same role with the Rams previously.
There’s no question the Jaguars have one of the best defenses in the NFL. But it’s not complemented well by the offense. Blake Bortles is still one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. And his job got much tougher with the fact that the Jaguars lost last year’s leading receiver Marquise Lee in the preseason to a knee injury. Their third-leading receiver, Allen Hurns, is gone to the Cowboys. And former top receiver Allen Robinson is gone to the Bears. The Jaguars are going to be so predictable on offense this year. Teams will be able to stack eight in the box to stop Leonard Fournette, and that will be the game plan every week.
The home team is a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings between these teams. Jacksonville is 15-31 ATS in its last 46 non-conference road games. The Jaguars are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 September games. Bet the Giants Sunday.
|09-09-18||Bucs +10 v. Saints||48-40||Win||100||96 h 27 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Bucs +10
Public perception couldn’t be any worse on the Bucs right now. At the same time, public perception couldn’t be much higher on the New Orleans Saints. So this is essentially the perfect storm here and we’re getting max value on the Bucs as 10-point road underdogs to the Saints in the opener.
The Bucs are coming off a 5-11 season. Jameis Winston has been suspended for the first three games of the season. Not much is expected from the Bucs, who play in a very tough division. But I think they’ve been hearing all offseason about how bad they are going to be. No question them head into Week 1 with a massive chip on their shoulder.
And I actually like the talent on this Bucs’ roster. Their defense had three stars in DT Gerald McCoy and LB’s Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander. They added two productive DE’s in Vinny Curry from the Eagles and Jason Pierre-Paul from the Giants. I expect this to be one of the most improved defenses in the league.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has ample weapons on the outside to be productive, and he’s one of the best backups in the NFL. Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and the combination of OJ Howard and Cameron Brate at tight end give the Bucs some great receiving options. Peyton Barber came on strong at running back late last year, and they added talented rookie RB Ronald Jones II in the second round. I expect the Bucs to be a lot more competitive than the general public does this season.
The Saints are getting a lot of hype after going 11-5 last year and losing on the Minnesota miracle in the playoffs. Their defense improved greatly last year, but it’s still just a mediocre unit. And the offense is more run-heavy now than it has ever been, but Mark Ingram is out to start the season due to a four-game suspension. No question the Saints will still be good this year and a playoff contender, but I think they are getting way too much respect from the books in Week 1 here. The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four Week 1 games. Roll with the Bucs Sunday.
|09-09-18||Texans +7 v. Patriots||20-27||Push||0||96 h 27 m||Show|
15* Texans/Patriots AFC ANNIHILATOR on Houston +7
There is a lot to like about the Houston Texans heading into 2018. For starters, Deshaun Watson is fully healthy now. He was on pace for 43 touchdowns as a rookie before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Watson led an offense that averaged 39 points per game from Week 3 to Week 8 in a five-game span. It’s scary how good this offense was when he was healthy, and when WR Will Fuller was on the field. He had 7 touchdown receptions on 28 grabs last year.
So on offense, they have Watson and Fuller back healthy, and on defense they get their two best players back healthy as well. J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus both return. Watt is a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He and Jadeveon Clowney will wreak havoc on opposing offenses. Whitney Mercilus returns from a torn pectoral muscle. Mercilus joins a talented LB group that features leading tackler Benardick McKinney and the versatile Zach Cunningham, who are both coming off productive seasons.
The Patriots are notorious slow starters. We saw them lose 27-42 to the Chiefs at home in Week 1 last year, and in their next home game they barely beat Watson and the Texans 36-33 in Week 3. The Patriots needed a 25-yard touchdown pass with 23 seconds left to escape with victory as 13.5-point favorites.
Tom Brady is a year older, and he just doesn’t have the kind of weapons he used to. His best receiver this year is Chris Hogan (34 receptions, 439 yards, 5 TD Last year). Julian Edelman is serving a four-game suspension, and Danny Amendola left for the Dolphins. Brandon Cooks left for the Rams as well. Outside Rob Gronkowski, this is a very underwhelming receiver group. The offensive line is a question mark with LT Nate Solder leaving in free agency.
New England lost defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who is now the head coach of the Detroit Lions. And this Patriots’ defense fell apart late last year. They also ranked just 29th in total defense during the regular season, surrendering 366.0 yards per game. Then they gave up 41 points to the Eagles in the Super Bowl and couldn’t stop backup QB Nick Foles, who was dreadful prior to the Super Bowl. There’s more questions than answers surrounding this defense heading into 2018.
The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five Week 1 games. This number is simply too high with the Texans catching a touchdown. I actually think they have the better all-around team this year and will be one of the best teams in the NFL if all of the stars stay healthy that were injured last year. They are at least healthy for Week 1, and that’s the key here. Bet the Texans Sunday.
Note: I recommend buying the Texans to +7
|09-06-18||Falcons +2 v. Eagles||12-18||Loss||-110||32 h 48 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Eagles 2018 NFL Season Opener on Atlanta +2
The Philadelphia Eagles had a remarkable run to the Super Bowl with their backup quarterback. But now it’s time for the Super Bowl hangover in 2018, and I’m predicting it starts in Week 1 with a loss to the Atlanta Falcons in a playoff rematch from Philly’s 15-10 victory in January.
The Eagles stunk up the preseason (0-4), especially Nick Foles, so their hangover has already started. They lost all four preseason games by double-digits, and their offense was particularly bad, averaging just 6.8 points per game.
Now Foles will have to start again in the opener because Carson Wentz isn’t quite ready to go. And he’ll be without his top receiver in Alshon Jeffery, who is still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. There’s just not a lot to like about this offense to start the season.
The Eagles were able to get by due to a great defense that gave up just 18.2 points per game last season. But that defense won’t be nearly as good in 2018. They lost DE Vinny Curry, LB Mychal Kendrick and CB Patrick Robinson in the offseason. And now they are without DT Timmy Jernigan (back) and LB Nigel Bradham (suspension) in Week 1.
Many overlooked the Falcons last season, but they still went 10-6 and had another great shot at getting back to the Super Bowl before that 5-point loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round. Now they have basically their entire team back and will be ready for another Super Bowl Run in 2018.
The offense is loaded with weapons for Matt Ryan this season. The usuals are back in Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and the 1-2 punch of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the backfield. But they used an early draft pick on WR Calvin Ridley, who may turn out to be the best receiver in the draft. This will help take some pressure away from Jones in the passing game and open it up more for both he and Sanu.
What got overlooked was the improvement of the Falcons’ defense last season. They only surrendered 19.1 points per game in their 18 games including playoffs. They finished in the Top 10 in scoring defense and total defense last year. The only significant loss was DT Dontari Poe. They have 10 starters back on D and will have one of the best stop units in the league once again.
Plus, the Falcons are fully healthy entering 2018 because they basically rested their starters the entire preseason. They should come out guns-a-blazing in Week 1, while the Eagles are behind the eight ball due to all their injuries and suspensions. Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Thursday games. Bet the Falcons Thursday.
|02-04-18||Eagles v. Patriots UNDER 48.5||Top||41-33||Loss||-109||125 h 56 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Eagles/Patriots UNDER 48.5
Both of these defenses are playing at a ridiculously high level. Now with two weeks to prepare, that’s an even bigger advantages for the defenses. I think points will be extremely hard to come by in Super Bowl 52, and this is my favorite total bet of the entire playoffs.
The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall. They are giving up just 14.4 points per game during this stretch. I think Nick Foles and the Eagles’ offense will struggle big-time against this Patriots defense, just as they have down the stretch aside from an aberration against the Vikings.
The Eagles were held to 19 points against Oakland, 0 against Dallas and 15 against Atlanta in three of their last four games. They were technically held to 13 points against Oakland because they got a fluke fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game. Sure, they had a good game against the Vikings, but that was clearly the aberration.
New England’s offense is still good, but this isn’t one of the best offenses of the Belichick era due to some key injuries. They’ve done a good job of manufacturing offense to TE Rob Gronkowski and their running backs, but their receivers haven’t been all that productive. And the Patriots have been held to 26 or fewer points in eight of their last 14 games overall.
The Eagles certainly have the defense to limit what the Patriots can do on offense. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and that defense has really shown its teeth down the stretch. The Eagles have allow 10, 6, 10 and 7 points in their last four games overall, and average of just 8.3 points per game. They have an elite pass rush led by Fletcher Cox that will disrupt Tom Brady and company enough to limit them to 24 points or fewer in this game.
Philadelphia is 22-8 UNDER in its last 30 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest. New England is 8-2 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better this season. The UNDER is 44-20 in Eagles last 64 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The UNDER is 10-4 in Patriots last 14 games overall.
Plays on the UNDER on any team with a total of 42.5 to 49 (New England) with a poor turnover defense forcing 1 or less turnovers per game, after four consecutive games where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers are 71-38 (65.1%) over the last 10 seasons. Expect a conservative, run-heavy approach from both teams that will eat up clock and limit possessions as well. Bet the UNDER in the Super Bowl Sunday.
|02-04-18||Eagles v. Patriots -180||Top||41-33||Loss||-180||76 h 52 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Patriots Super Bowl ANNIHILATOR on New England Money Line -180
The New England Patriots have a huge edge in experience in this game. That will benefit them greatly. The Patriots have played in eight Super Bowls since 2002, winning five of them thus far. I think they will grab their 6th victory over the inexperienced Eagles here.
Nick Foles had a big game against the Vikings, but it’s worth noting that he got to play at home in both playoff games. He was comfortable, but now he will be outside his comfort zone here on a neutral in the biggest game of his life.
The Vikings game was the aberration. The Eagles were held to 19 points against Oakland, 0 against Dallas and 15 against Atlanta in three of their last four games. They were technically held to 13 points against Oakland because they got a fluke fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game. Sure, they had a good game against the Vikings, but that was clearly the aberration.
Now the Eagles will be up against a Patriots defense that is playing lights out. The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall. They are giving up just 14.4 points per game during this stretch. It’s very difficult for a backup quarterback to win a Super Bowl, and I simply trust Brady exponentially more than Foles in this huge spot.
I don’t bet a lot of money lines, but there are certain spots to do so. The Super Bowl is one of them. You get a cheaper price on the favorite on the money line in the Super Bowl than you would in a regular season game. That’s because there is so much money line action on the underdog that the oddsmakers are forced to lower the price of the favorite. So we are getting the Patriots at -180 here when they would normally be -200 or more if this was a regular season game in the -4.5 favorite range.
Plays on favorites vs. the money line (New England) - after 5 consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers are 26-4 (86.7%, +20.4 units) since 1983.
New England is 12-1 (+10.7 units) against the money line vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game over the last three seasons. Belichick is 28-0 against the money line (+35.2 units) after covering the spread in 8 or more of the last 10 games as the coach of New England. Bet the Patriots on the Money Line in the Super Bowl.
|01-21-18||Vikings -3 v. Eagles||Top||7-38||Loss||-120||148 h 41 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Eagles NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3
Everyone thinks the Minnesota Vikings got lucky to be here in the NFC Championship Game. They saw that the Vikings needed basically a Hail Mary on the last play of the game to beat the Saints. While that is true, let’s not forget how that game played out.
Minnesota stormed out to a 17-0 halftime lead and still led 17-0 deep into the 3rd quarter. I think they simply relaxed, and it’s tough to hold an offense as good as the Saints down for four quarters. Drew Brees and the Saints’ top-ranked offense finally got on track, and coupled with a few mistakes by the Vikings with an interception in their own territory and a blocked punt, and the Saints got right back into the game.
I like to focus not the fact that the Vikings held the Saints scoreless for nearly three quarters. That’s no small feat. The Vikings rank 1st in total defense (275.9 yards/game), 1st in yards per play (4.6/play) and 1st in scoring defense (15.8 points/game). They also are 1st in 3rd down defense (25%). They are the first team since 1991 to hold all 16 of their opponents to fewer than 40% 3rd down conversions during the regular season.
In the NFL, defense travels, and I’ll gladly back the best defense in the NFL. But the Minnesota offense doesn’t get the credit they deserve. They scored 24 points per game and averaged 357 yards per game during the regular season. Case Keenum threw 22 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions while completing 67.6% of his passes and averaging 7.4 per attempt. And the Vikings have run the ball well behind a vastly improved offensive line. They rushed for 100-plus yards in eight consecutive games to close the regular season, and in 13 of their 16 games overall.
Many felt that the Vikings were cursed, and they were certainly feeling that way with 10 seconds to play before that Hail Mary. But after getting that ‘Minneapolis Miracle’, I really like the mindset of this team now. The Vikings feel like they are playing on house money and will be playing freely. There won’t be a single situation they face Sunday that will scare them. They will have the belief they can win no matter what the circumstances. They really believe it’s their year now.
The Eagles have a strong defense as well this season, but the difference in this game is going to be the fact that their woeful offense just won’t be able to do anything against this Minnesota defense. The Eagles have managed just 13, 0 and 15 points in their last three games overall. Yes, they scored 19 against Oakland, but I don’t count 6 of those points because they got a fumble-six on the final play of the game.
The Eagles have managed just 81.3 rushing yards per game and 175 passing yards per game in their last three contests, an average of just 251.3 yards per game. And that came against some suspect defenses in Oakland, Dallas and Atlanta all at home. Now the Eagles will be up against the best defense they have faced all season, and I don’t expect that to turn out well at all for struggling quarterback Nick Foles.
Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% over the last three seasons. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. These three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Minnesota. Bet the Vikings Sunday.
|01-21-18||Jaguars v. Patriots -8||20-24||Loss||-114||77 h 38 m||Show|
15* Jags/Patriots AFC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on New England -8
The New England Patriots are the most popular team in the NFL. And despite that, they have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They won the Super Bowl last year, the betting public keeps backing them, and they keep covering. I can’t even explain how difficult that is.
Now the Patriots are a win away from another Super Bowl appearance. They made easy work of the Titans 35-14 last week and even gave up a garbage touchdown in the final seconds on fourth down to turn that from a 28-point game into a 21-point game. And it’s worth noting the Titans went 2-0 against the Jaguars this season, outscoring them by 29 points in those two matchups.
The Patriots couldn’t possibly be more rested right now. They haven’t had to leave home since December 17th, so they have been in New England for over a month now. They had a bye coming into the playoffs, while the Jaguars have had to win two games in the playoffs and played their starters in Week 17. So the Jaguars are certainly fatigued in comparison to the Patriots.
I trust Bill Belichick to make the Jaguars play left-handed. They want to run the football and rely on their defense, making things easier on Blake Bortles. Look for the Patriots to stop the run and make Bortles try and beat them. Bortles has a 103 passer rating when playing with a lead, and a 66 rating when playing from behind this season. I fully expect the Jaguars to be playing from behind.
Last week’s misleading 45-42 win over the Steelers last week has the Jaguars overvalued. The Steelers didn’t take them seriously and were looking ahead. They dug themselves and early 21-point deficit thanks to a fumble-six and another interception that set up the Jaguars in the red zone for another score. But we saw how vulnerable this Jaguars defense was the rest of the way as the Steelers racked up 545 total yards and 462 passing yards against them.
You know Tom Brady and company are going to be able to move the ball and score points. I think Rob Gronkowski is going to be a huge matchup problem for the Jaguars. We saw Steelers tight end Vance McDonald catch 10 balls for 112 yards against the Jaguars last week. You can only imagine the kind of game Gronkowski is going to have because he’ll be matched up with linebackers. The Jaguars cannot afford to put Jalen Ramsey on him the whole game, and he probably won’t guard him at all.
The Jaguars have a strong running game with Leonard Fournette, but Fournette was knocked out of the Steelers game with an ankle injury. When he finally came back in the lineup in the second half, he wasn’t nearly as effective. I think the rookie is starting to wear down now, and he certainly won’t be 100% for this game. On the other side, Rex Burkhead is expected to return to the lineup for the Patriots this week, giving them another option in an already loaded backfield.
If you’re betting on the Jaguars, you’re betting on Blake Bortles. That’s not going to be a strategy I want any part of here. Bortles is just 41-of-83 (49.4%) passing for 459 yards (153 yards/game) with two touchdowns and two interceptions in his last three games. Belichick will make him try and beat them, and I don’t think he’s even close to being capable. When the Jaguars get behind, there will be no coming back.
New England is 8-0 ATS against teams who average 350 or more yards per game over the last two seasons. The Patriots are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game. New England is 12-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games over the past two seasons. The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff home games. These five trends combine for a 44-3 system backing New England. Take the Patriots Sunday.
|01-14-18||Saints v. Vikings -3.5||Top||24-29||Win||100||162 h 30 m||Show|
20* Saints/Vikings NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5
I strongly believe the Minnesota Vikings will be the first team ever to play in their home stadium in the Super Bowl this season. I feel they are far and away the best team in the NFC, but they don’t get treated like it. They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites against the New Orleans Saints here.
Getting the bye is a huge advantage for the Vikings. They will be rested and ready to go. And you could argue that they’ve had three byes this season considering they had a bye on November 5th, and their Week 17 game against the Bears didn’t matter. They will be primed for a big effort.
Conversely, the Saints have been in playoff mode for at least three straight weeks dating back to their win over the Falcons. The Saints haven’t had a bye since October 8th which was way back in Week 5. They were one of the first teams to receive a bye this season. That will make them even more tired coming into this game.
And the Saints have been hit hard by injuries defensively, which is a big reason why I’m quick to fade them here Sunday. They’ve lost basically five starters to season-ending injuries on defense. They are without LB Alex Anzalone, DE Alex Okafor, LB A.J. Klein, LB Hau’oli Kikaha, S Kenny Vaccaro, DE Mitchell Loewen and CB Delvin Breaux.
All these injuries and the lack of rest has this New Orleans defense playing awful here down the stretch. They allowed 31 points and 455 total yards in a loss to the Bucs in Week 17 in which they needed a win to clinch the division. Then they allowed 26 points and 413 total yards to the Panthers in their 31-26 home win where they were life-and-death in the closing seconds just to win that game.
One stat that really stands out in these two games is that New Orleans has allowed 60% conversions on 3rd down to the Bucs and Panthers. They allowed the Bucs to convert 13-of-18 on 3rd down, and the Panthers to convert 8-of-16 on 3rd down.
Now let’s look at this Minnesota defense, which I believe to be the best stop unit in the NFL. The Vikings have the No. 1 3rd down defense in the NFL, giving up just 25% conversions on the year. They are the first team since 1991 to hold all 16 of their opponents to less than 40% 3rd down conversions in every game. Minnesota ranks 1st in total defense (275.9 yards/game), tied for 1st in yards per play defense (4.6 yards/play) and 1st in scoring defense (15.8 points/game).
This Minnesota defense has been even better at home. They allow just 12.5 points per game and 248 yards per game at home this year. They have only allowed one touchdown in their last five home games combined. If that’s not dominance, I don’t know what is. And I think Minnesota’s home-field advantage is worth upwards of 4 points in the playoffs, which will be the most hostile atmosphere the Saints have played in all season.
After all, these teams already played once in Minnesota back in Week 1. The Vikings beat the Saints 29-19 in that contest. They racked up 470 yards of total offense while limiting the Saints to 344 yards, outgaining them by 126 yards in that contest. These teams are different since then, but I could see a very similar end result with a 10-plus point victory for the Vikings.
While everyone knows the Vikings’ defense is good, they don’t want to give Case Keenum and the offense their due. But this offense has been just fine in averaging 24 points and 357 yards per game on the season. Keenum has thrown 22 touchdowns against only 7 interceptions this season while completing 67.6% of his passes while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. And the Vikings have been able to run the ball behind a vastly improved offensive line. They have rushed for at least 100 yards in eight consecutive games and in 13 of their 16 games this season.
The Vikings are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 home games, including 12-4 ATS inside their new stadium, which opened last year. Minnesota is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Mike Zimmer is 9-1 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 375 or more yards per game as the coach of Minnesota. Zimmer is 24-8 ATS in home games as the coach of Minnesota. Take the Vikings Sunday.
|01-14-18||Jaguars v. Steelers -7||45-42||Loss||-110||159 h 55 m||Show|
15* Jaguars/Steelers AFC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -7
A big reason I faded the Jaguars last week and backed the Bills was the fact that the Jaguars played the 32nd-toughest schedule this season. That’s right, they played the easiest schedule in the entire NFL. It was a big reason for their huge turnaround season.
I also think Doug Marrone made a big mistake playing his starters in Week 17 in a meaningless game against the Titans in which they lost 10-15. They were already locked in to the No. 3 seed, so there was no need to play the starters. I think Tom Coughlin was in his ear and his old-school ways overtook him. It’s really going to cost them this week.
The Jaguars were fortunate it didn’t cost them last week. The Bills were the better team but lost 10-3. They outgained the Jaguars by 39 yards. They held this woeful Jacksonville offense to just 230 total yards. Blake Bortles was awful, completing just 12-of-23 passes for 87 yards in the win. He did shockingly rush for 88 yards, while Leonard Fournette was held to 57 yards on 21 carries. His legs are the reason they won, but now the Steelers will be prepared for that element of his game after seeing it against Buffalo.
The Steelers have had horrible luck in the playoffs injury-wise in previous years. They have been missing one of the Killer B's basically every year they have made the playoffs in recent years, and it’s usually Le’Veon Bell. But after resting the Killer B’s in Week 17, all three of Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are healthy going into the playoffs. Brown is expected to return from his calf injury, and the Steelers are remarkably healthy everywhere outside of LB Ryan Shazier now.
And boy are the Steelers going to be revenge-minded. They were rusty earlier in the year due to Bell’s suspension and lacked chemistry. I think that helps their 30-9 home loss to the Jaguars back on October 8th, which is one of the most misleading finals you’ll ever see. The Steelers outgained the Jaguars 373-313 in that game yet lost by 21. That only tells half the story.
Big Ben hard arguably the worst game of his career, throwing five interceptions, including two that were returned for touchdowns. A couple of those were tipped balls and weren’t his fault, but he was still jokingly contemplating retirement afterwards. And Fourtnette had a 90-yard TD run with only 1:47 remaining as they were just trying to run out the clock. So without that run, the Jaguars would have only had 223 total yards. I think that’s a number that we can expect them to have in this rematch.
Bortles only went 8-of-14 passing for 95 yards without an touchdown and with one interception in that game. And there is the problem with the Jaguars. They don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Steelers in this game. I can guarantee you the Steelers are going to be much more productive on offense than they were in the first meeting.
And the reason they will be more productive is because they won’t put so much on Big Ben’s shoulder. Look for 30-plus carries from Le’Veon Bell because the Steelers realize they are better when he gets more carries as it has shown throughout their history. That will open things up for Big Ben in play-action, and they won’t be playing into the Jaguars’ defensive strength, which is their pass defense.
Big Ben through 55 times in that first meeting. I only expect him to throw 20-30 times in the rematch. That will negate the Jacksonville pass rush, which has been their strength all season. The weakness of the Jaguars is their run defense, which ranked 21st in the league in the regular season, giving up 116.2 rushing yards per game. The Jaguars have allowed 108 or more rushing yards in six of their last seven games overall.
With Bortles being one of the worst passing quarterbacks in the NFL, the Jaguars are going to try to run the football. Well, the Steelers have been stout against the run all season. They have allowed 91 or fewer rushing yards in 10 of their 16 games this season. They rank 10th against the run in giving up 105.8 rushing yards per game on the year. And their defense is significantly improved overall, giving up just 19.2 points per game on the season.
Pittsburgh is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 home games when revenging an upset loss against an opponent as a home favorite. It is coming back to win by 11.1 points per game on average in this spot. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% over the last two seasons. They are winning these games by 16.5 points per game on average. Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last eight playoff home games. Roll with the Steelers Sunday.
|01-13-18||Falcons -2.5 v. Eagles||Top||10-15||Loss||-120||148 h 58 m||Show|
25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -2.5
I was on the Falcons last week and I’m going to back them again this week. Except this time, they are up against a much weaker opponent than they were last week against the Rams. The Eagles are only a shell of the team they were with Carson Wentz before.
A big reason why I loved the Falcons last week is because their perception is way down compared to last year coming into the playoffs. But they still managed to win 10 games despite playing the 4th-most difficult schedule in the NFL. And their numbers from a yards per play basis were almost identical to where they were last year, but they struggled in the red zone more than they did last season.
The Falcons still had to settle for four field goals against the Rams last week, but their offense was productive in a 26-13 victory. But what really has me excited about this team is how well the defense has been playing down the stretch.
Indeed, the Falcons have allowed 23 or fewer points in seven consecutive games to close out the season. This despite facing the Saints twice, the Vikings, the Panthers and the Rams, five playoff teams in their final seven games. They are giving up just 16.3 points per game and 319.2 yards per game in their last six games. This defense is playing much better than it gets credit for.
Now the Falcons should have another great defensive showing against an Eagles team that has been terrible on offense in its last two games. The Eagles were leading Oakland 13-10 before a fluke lateral fumble return for a touchdown on the final play to win 19-10 in Week 16. Then they lost 0-6 to Dallas despite playing their starters for much of the game.
The culprit has been the horrible play of backup quarterback Nick Foles. He is completing just 56.4% of his passes and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt on the season. He is only averaging 5.0 yards per attempt in his last three games, which came agains the Giants, Cowboys and Raiders. Those aren’t exactly defensive juggernauts.
I think a big reason Foles has struggled is because he’s a warm weather quarterback. He played for Arizona in college and mostly in perfect weather out on the West Coast. Now he’s in Philadelphia and has played three straight cold weather games at New York, and at home against Oakland and Dallas. And the temperature Saturday is going to be a high of 30 and a low of 18 with 10 mile per hour winds. I don’t trust him one bit, and I don’t think the Philadelphia players trust him either.
As I mentioned before, the Falcons played the 4th-most difficult schedule this season. The Eagles played the 21st-toughest to compare. They simply took advantage of an easy schedule, won basically all of their close games, and got great play from Carson Wentz to lead the way. But Wentz is no longer here to save the day, otherwise this would be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The difference from Wentz to Foles is 7-plus points, if not more.
I still think Atlanta is on a mission to make up for last year’s Super Bowl debacle. That has shown here down the stretch as they have won four of their last five with their only loss coming on the road to the Saints. The Eagles have shown signs of being a fraud with Foles against the Giants, Cowboys and Raiders down the stretch, and now they will be up against their best opponent yet in Atlanta.
Plays on favorites (Atlanta) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games against a hot team, a team that won 8 of their last 10 games are 34-8 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Atlanta is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS off an upset win as a road dog over the last three years. Bet the Falcons Saturday.
|01-07-18||Bills +9 v. Jaguars||Top||3-10||Win||100||74 h 30 m||Show|
20* Bills/Jaguars NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo +9
Both the Bills and Jaguars were Cinderella stories this season. The Jaguars won their first-ever AFC South title, will be going to the playoffs for the first time since 2007, and will hosting their first playoff game since 1999. The Bills were able to snap the longest playoff drought in the NFL, getting back to the postseason for the first time since 1999.
The books have simply set this number too high. The Jaguars cannot be laying more than a touchdown to the Bills in this matchup. The Jaguars may be 3 to 4 points better on a neutral field, so this line should be closer to 6 or 7. I think we’re getting a ton of value with the Bills +9 here folks.
A lot will be made of the Bills’ point differential leading into this game. It’s the fifth-worst point differential of any team to ever make the playoffs at -57. But keep in mind that Nate Peterman was responsible for a lot of that in a 24-54 loss to the Chargers. And also, the four teams will worse point differentials in playoff history all won their first playoff game.
Another thing you’ll hear is that the Jaguars lead the NFL in sacks. Well, now they’ll be up against a mobile quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, who has been one of the most underrated signal callers in the NFL over the past few seasons. Taylor led the Bills to three wins in the final four games just to get into the playoffs. Taylor has completed 62.6% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, while also rushing for 427 yards and four scores on 5.1 per carry.
I think the Jaguars made a big mistake not resting their starters in Week 17 against the Titans. They were already locked into the No. 3 seed and had nothing to play for. Doug Marrone and his old-school mentality that may have been influenced by Tom Coughlin was clearly not happy with the 33-44 loss at San Francisco the week before. But the Jaguars were even worse against the Titans in a 10-15 loss, managing just 227 total yards while turning it over four times. They aren’t playing well coming in, and now they won’t be fresh, either.
The Bills have really stepped it up defensively here down the stretch. They have given up 16 or fewer points in four of their last six games overall. The only exceptions were the 23 and the 37 allowed to the Patriots in their two meetings with them, which is no shame. Their defense is good enough to contain Blake Bortles and this weak Jacksonville offense. That’s another reason the Jaguars can’t be this big of a favorite because Bortles is still their quarterback.
The strength of the Bills offensively is their running game. They have rushed for at least 104 yards in six of their last seven games and rank 6th in the NFL in rushing at 126.1 yards per game. LeSean McCoy is a fast healer and should be ready to go as he returned to practice late in the week. And the weakness of the Jaguars’ defense is against the run. They rank 21st in rushing defense at 116.2 yards per game and 4.3 per carry allowed. The Jaguars have allowed at least 108 rushing yards in five of their last six games overall.
A big reason for the Jaguars’ success this season is their weak schedule. They actually played the easiest (32nd) schedule in the entire NFL. The Bills played the 16th-toughest schedule. According to Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule rankings, the team that played the tougher schedule in the regular season is 41-19 SU & 41-18-1 ATS since the inception of the Wild Card. Underdogs that played the harder schedule are 21-9 ATS. When the difference is 10 or more, the team that played the tougher schedule is 24-5 SU & 23-5-1 ATS. Take the Bills Sunday.
|01-06-18||Falcons +6.5 v. Rams||26-13||Win||100||56 h 30 m||Show|
15* Falcons/Rams NFC Saturday No-Brainer on Atlanta +6.5
The Atlanta Falcons are going to be highly motivated to make a deep run in the playoffs after what happened to them in the Super Bowl last year, blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots. They have held it together pretty well this season and have avoided that dreaded Super Bowl hangover.
I like the fact that the Falcons have been in must-win mode here down the stretch, which is basically playoff mode, so they are battle-tested and ready to go. The Falcons have gone 3-1 down the stretch while outgaining all four opponents, their only loss coming on the road at New Orleans.
Last week they needed a win to get in the playoffs, and boy did they deliver. They beat the Panthers 22-10 at home and outgained them by 123 total yards. Matt Ryan threw for 317 yards and a touchdown without an interception to lead the way. The defense came through with arguably their best performance of the season, limiting Cam Newton to 14-of-34 passing for 180 yards and forcing three interceptions. The Panthers managed just 248 total yards in the game.
The Rams were smart to rest many of their starters against the 49ers last week. And I have been high on this team all season, but they weren’t in playoff mode in Week 17, and I don’t trust their inexperience in this pressure-packed situation. Mostly everyone on the roster has little-to-no playoff experience, including QB Jared Goff. I certainly trust Ryan more in this situation than Goff. And we’re getting 6.5 points with the Falcons to boot.
The Falcons actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential. Only the Saints, Jaguars and Vikings have been better in this department. That’s even more impressive when you consider the Falcons faced the 4th-toughest schedule in the entire NFL this season. This team isn’t as broken as the media leads you on to believe.
While the Falcons played the 4th-toughest schedule, the Rams played the 17th-hardest. That’s important when we look at a wild card system that is tried and true. Since the inception of the wild card, teams that played the tougher schedule according to Jeff Sagarin’s rankings are 41-19 SU & 41-18-1 ATS. Underdogs with the tougher schedule are 21-9 ATS. When the difference is 10 or more, like it is here (4th & 17th), the team that played the harder schedule is 24-5 SU & 23-5-1 ATS.
Atlanta is 6-0 ATS against NFC West opponents over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining less than 90 rushing yards in its previous game. The Rams are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Roll with the Falcons Saturday.
|01-06-18||Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5||Top||22-21||Win||100||53 h 56 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Titans NFL Wild Card Opener on UNDER 44.5
The Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans will play in a defensive battle to open the playoffs Saturday afternoon. It will be cold in Kansas City on Saturday with a high of 31 degrees and wins from 10 to 15 miles per hour, so the weather will aid this UNDER as well.
The Chiefs give up some plays between the 20’s, but they buckle down in the red zone, especially at home. Kansas City is only allowing 16.9 points per game at home this season. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t allowed more than 20 points at home all year! They’ve given up 13, 13, 15 and 16 points in their last four home games, respectively.
The Titans have been held to 23 or fewer points in six of their last seven road games. They are scoring just 14.7 points per game in their last seven road games. Their offense has been terrible all season as Marcus Mariota is extremely overrated. And they no longer have the dangerous 1-2 punch in the backfield as DeMarco Murray has missed time down the stretch and won’t play in this game. Making matters worse is that no receivers are getting separation for Mariota.
The Chiefs got off to a tremendous start to the season offensively, but things have cooled off significantly for them on that side of the ball down the stretch. They are averaging 22.7 points per game in their last seven games overall. Based on these averages with the Chiefs’ offense down the stretch and the Titans on the road, we’re looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of a 23-15 game, which would be well below the 44.5-point total.
Tennessee has been playing some very good defense here down the stretch. They Titans have allowed 22 or fewer points in nine of their last 12 games. They have allowed 16 points or fewer in four of their final six games. They are giving up just 19.2 points per game in their last 12 games overall. They are fully capable of keeping this Kansas City offense in check Saturday.
The UNDER is 44-19 in Chiefs last 63 home games overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Chiefs last five playoff home games. The UNDER is 6-0 in Chiefs last six home games with a total between 42.5 and 45 points. Kansas City is 9-1 UNDER in home games when playing with 6 or fewer days’ rest over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Titans last four playoff games. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-31-17||49ers +4 v. Rams||Top||34-13||Win||100||126 h 36 m||Show|
20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on San Francisco 49ers +4
I’ve been on the 49ers every week since Jimmy Garoppolo took over. I’m not about to buck them now. They are 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS since he took over. He is undefeated in his career as a starting quarterback dating back to his time with New England. He is the real deal.
If you don’t believe Garoppolo is for real after he put up 44 points on Jacksonville’s vaunted defense last week, you need your head checked. Garopplo is completing 69.0% of his passes for 1,268 yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for the 49ers. He is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. Those are MVP-type numbers over a four-game sample.
The success the offense is having has prompted the defense to step up their game and play with a new passion as well. The defense is giving up just 21.5 points per game over their past four games. It’s a stop unit with a ton of talent along the front seven, and the secondary intercepted Blake Bortles three times last week. The 49ers want to finish off this 5-0 run and keep their momentum going into the offseason.
But the key handicap for this game is the motivation for the and rest situation for the Rams. I locked in the 49ers +4 early in the week anticipating that the Rams might rest starters. And that’s precisely what has happened in this game. Head coach Sean McVey came out and said that almost all of his key starters are going to rest, including Jared Goff, Todd Gurley and many others.
It was another wise move by McVey, who has been as impressive as any head coach this season. It makes 100% sense. The Rams are going to have to play next week, and they’re going to get a home game. It would actually benefit them to lose and get the No. 4 seed instead of fighting for the No. 3 seed.
That’s because the No. 4 seed is going to likely get to play the No. 1 seed Philadelphia Eagles two weeks from now. They would take on struggling Nick Foles and the Eagles, who have limped to the finish line, instead of taking on No. 2 seed Minnesota, which looks like the best team in the NFC. The Rams were already throttled 24-7 on the road by the Vikings and don’t want to have to play them again. They nearly beat the Eagles, losing 35-43 in the game that Carson Wentz got hurt.
Plays on favorites (San Francisco) after covering two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 45-15 (75%) ATS since 1983. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams. Take the 49ers Sunday.
Note: I locked this line in at +4 early in the week anticipating the Rams would likely be resting their starters. That has turned out to be true. This is still a 20* play all the way to 49ers -3. It’s a 15* play at -3.5 or higher. I think there’s a good chance the 49ers blow them out of the building still, so don’t let the line move shy you away from betting them. It's a benefit to my long-term clients to get the plays as soon as I release them instead of purchasing the day of the game and getting worse lines.
|12-31-17||Cardinals +9 v. Seahawks||26-24||Win||100||123 h 26 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +9
The fact that this is a must-win game for the Seahawks is baked into the number. They need to win and have the Falcons lost at home to the Panthers to get into the playoffs. But this line has gotten out of hand and indicates the Cardinals are just going to lay down for them. That won’t be the case.
There is rumors that it may be the last game for Bruce Arians at Arizona. His players absolutely love him and it’s well documented. It could also be the final game for Larry Fitzgerald. I think everyone will play their hearts out for those two guys, and they would love nothing more than to be the team that knocked the hated Seahawks out of the playoffs.
Quietly, the Cardinals have gotten to 7-8 this season and will be motivated to finish .500 as well. They have been hit hard by injuries, but have battled through it. They are playing their best football of the season down the stretch.
The Cardinals have actually outgained four of their last five opponents while going 3-2 over their last five games. Their defense is playing as well as any defense in the NFL, giving up just 247.4 yards per game in their last five games. And Drew Stanton and his big arm and mobility has given the offense spark. He is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL.
I think Seattle beating Dallas 21-12 on the road last week has them overvalued now. But that was one of the most misleading finals you will ever see. They actually had more penalty yards (142) than total yards (136) of offense in that game. They were outgained by 147 yards by the Cowboys.
In fact, the Seahawks have been playing terrible for four straight weeks. They have been outgained in four consecutive games and by a total of 488 yards in those four, or by an average of 122 yards per game. The betting public is quick to forget that Seattle was just blown out at home 42-7 by the Rams the week prior. What a difference a week and a misleading 21-12 win over Dallas makes. Their offense is still a mess, and their defense still has injuries everywhere.
Arizona always plays Seattle tough, and that will be no different hear. And home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series of late. The road team is 5-0-1 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Arizona won outright as 9-point dogs and as 3-point dogs in its last two trips to Seattle. The Cardinals may not win outright Sunday, but they will give the Seahawks more of a fight than they bargained for.
Arians is 9-1 ATS revenging a home loss against opponent in all games he has coached. Arians is a perfect 7-0 ATS revenging a loss loss by 7 points or less as the coach of Arizona. After a tough 22-16 home loss to the Seahawks thanks to a miracle play from Russell Wilson, the Cardinals will be revenge-minded here and have the ability to pull off the upset. Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-31-17||Browns +14 v. Steelers||Top||24-28||Win||100||122 h 30 m||Show|
25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +14
The Cleveland Browns are now assured the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. I don’t think they were purposely tanking this season to get that pick, but that’s what happens when you go 0-15. So now their focus will be on getting a win and not becoming the second 0-16 team, joining the Detroit Lions.
I took the Browns early in the week when the line came out anticipating that the Steelers were going to rest their starters. The Steelers clinched a first-round bye on Monday with their 34-6 win over the Texans. So now they’ll be on a short week, and they would be wise to rest their starters.
Plus, the Patriots are 15.5-point home favorites over the Jets. Conventional wisdom says the Patriots aren’t losing that game, so the Steelers have no chance to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The more important thing is for them to be healthy going into the playoffs because they haven’t been fully healthy for years.
The Killer B’s have all missed time in the playoffs in recent years. Le’Veon Bell seems to get hurt going into or during the playoffs every year. But he’s healthy now and Mike Tomlin would be wise to sit him. He would also be wise to sit Big Ten, and Antonio Brown is already out. He is expected to return for the playoffs, though.
Tomlin has already hinted at all three of these players resting early on in the week, and tackle Marcus Gilbert came out and said as much as Big Ten and Bell won’t play. He said Landry Jones will get the start. Don’t be surprised if several other key players get the day off.
This happened in Week 17 last year as well. Cleveland nearly beat the Steelers on the road. They lost 24-27 at Pittsburgh as 3-point underdogs in overtime. Don’t be surprised if this line gets down to close to the -3 mark as well if Tomlin rests as many players as I’m anticipating, and plays this like a preseason game as he should.
Cleveland played one of its best games of the year against Pittsburgh back in Week 1. The Browns only lost that game 18-21 as 10-point home underdogs. They haven’t been as bad as their 0-15 record would suggest this season. But they are last in the NFL in turnover differential by a wide margin. They are -28 in turnovers on the season, which is almost unheard of.
Design Kizer should have a much better day against a Steelers team that will be treating this like a preseason game. I think the Browns want to go into the offseason with some momentum and a win. They are only getting outgained by 23 yards per game on the season, so obviously it has just been the turnovers that killed them. There are many teams with worse yardage differentials than them.
Plays on underdogs of 10.5 or more points (Cleveland) - off a loss by 14 points or more against an opponent that scored 30 or more points in their last game are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Pittsburgh is 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite of 10 or more points. Bet the Browns Sunday.
Note: This play is a 25* all the way down to +10. It's a 20* from +7 to +9.5. It's a 15* at +6.5 or less. I realize this line has moved a ton since more information became available. That's why it's a benefit to my long-term clients to get my plays as soon as I release them instead of buying them the day of the game and getting worse lines.
|12-25-17||Raiders v. Eagles -9||Top||10-19||Push||0||61 h 45 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia -9
The Philadelphia Eagles can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win over the Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football. It’s safe to say they will be motivated to the max. A win would allow them to rest their starters in Week 17 and really get a leg up on the competition heading into the playoffs.
Conversely, the Oakland Raiders have officially been eliminated from the playoffs. And the way they were eliminated will be very difficult to recover from. Derek Carr was diving for the game-winning touchdown against the Cowboys last week, but he fumbled through the end zone for a touchback. Gone with that fumble was any hope of them making the postseason. There’s no question in my mind that the Raiders will suffer a hangover from that defeat, and they won’t even show up Monday night.
The Raiders also have some significant injuries at the wide receiver position that hamper them even further. Both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are highly questionable heading into this game. Cooper has a nagging ankle injury, while Crabtree suffered a concussion against the Cowboys that forced him off the field for the final play of the game. They may both play, but I question the effectiveness of Carr’s top two receivers.
The Eagles are a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 19.8 points per game, scoring 35.0 on offense and giving up just 15.2 on defense. Nick Foles showed last week that he can man the offense just fine, throwing four touchdown passes against the Giants on the road and leading the Eagles to 34 points.
Doug Perderson is a perfect 8-0 ATS off two or more consecutive overs as the coach of Philadelphia. Pederson is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win as the coach of the Eagles. I don’t think the Raiders will enjoy the cold weather in Philadelphia Monday night, either. I always like fading warm weather West Coast teams in these cold weather games. It’s expected to be 26 degrees and windy Monday night. Bet the Eagles Monday.
|12-24-17||Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5||33-44||Win||100||102 h 33 m||Show|
15* Jags/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +4.5
I’ve backed the San Francisco 49ers with success in three consecutive weeks. I’m not about to buck them now as they are once again undervalued here Sunday as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Jacksonville Jaguars. They are 3-0 under Jimmy Garoppolo, and they are clearly playing with a new level of excitement and intensity on both sides of the ball now.
The 49ers won Garoppolos’ first start 15-14 at Chicago as 2.5-point underdogs. That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. They outgunned the Bears by 241 yards and should have won by a lot more. But they had red zone struggles with penalties and critical mistakes that had them settling for five field goals.
Two weeks ago the 49ers went into Houston and won 26-16 as 1-point road underdogs. They outgunned the Texans by 105 yards in that contest. Garoppolo threw for 334 yards and a touchdown in the win. The 49ers put up 416 total yards a week after amassing 388 total yards against a good Bears defense. Those two performances showed that this is a much more dynamic offensive under Garoppolo.
Last week the 49ers moved the ball up and down the field at will on the Tennessee Titans. They only won that game 22-20, but it should have been a much bigger blowout. They again had problems in the red zone and settled for a whopping six field goals. Garoppolo had another monster game, completing 31 of 43 passes for 381 yards with a touchdown and zero interceptions.
While the offense is hitting on all cylinders under Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan, the defense has been extremely impressive and not getting the respect they deserve. The 49ers are only giving up 262.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in their last three contests. They should be able to slow down a mediocre Jaguars offense that could be missing three key playmakers in Leonard Fournette, Allen Hurns and Marquise Lee.
The Jacksonville Jaguars come in way overvalued due to its 45-7 home victory over Houston last week. It was their third straight victory, all coming at home. Now they hit the road for the first time since November. They were last on the road on November 26th, getting upset 27-24 at Arizona as 6-point favorites. They were actually outgunned by 125 yards by the Cardinals in that contest.
Let’s just look at this game from a line value perspective. San Francisco goes from being a 2.5-point home favorite against Tennessee to a 4.5-point home dog against Jacksonville. Well, Jacksonville and Tennessee are two similar teams talent-wise, and yet their is a 7-point swing in this line. So we are basically getting 7 points of value with the 49ers in my opinion this week.
Jacksonville now has a two-game lead over Tennessee for first place in the AFC South. Well, Tennessee is a touchdown home underdog to the Los Angeles Rams this week. That game will go off at 1:00 EST and will be over by the time this game starts. So the Jaguars are likely to clinch the AFC South title before this game starts. I will certainly question their motivated this week if the Titans lose to the Rams like they’re supposed to. Basically, I know for sure I’m going to get a big effort from the 49ers, but the Jaguars motivation is in question to say the least given the situation.
Jacksonville is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off two consecutive covers as a favorite. The Jaguars are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. NFC West opponents. Jacksonville is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following a win by more than 14 points. Roll with the 49ers Sunday.
|12-24-17||Broncos +3.5 v. Redskins||Top||11-27||Loss||-110||121 h 1 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +3.5
The Denver Broncos are probably the single-most underrated team in the entire NFL heading into the final two weeks of the season. This team has a 5-9 record, and that’s what the betting public looks at, but this team has the numbers of a 9-5 team or better.
The Broncos are actually outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game on the season. That is one of the better marks in the NFL. Their offense has just been mediocre at best, but their defense has been one of the best in the league, and defense travels.
The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in yards per game allowed at 276.8. They are second in third-down percentage (30.8%) allowed. They defend the run well, they can stack the box because they have some of the best corners in the NFL who can play man-to-man.
It’s clear that the Broncos have not quit, and their defense continues to play at a high level. They have won their last two games with a 23-0 victory over the Jets and a 25-13 triumph over the Colts. They held the Jets to just 100 total yards and the Colts to just 228 total yards in the two victories.
But what really intrigues me is the performance of Brock Osweiler last week after he replaced the injured Trevor Siemian. He led the Broncos to a season-high 462 total yards. Osweiler finished with a 99.4 QBR out of 100, which is the single-best mark in the NFL in any one game this year. He had 194 passing yards on 12 completions and two touchdowns, while also rushing for a score. He is motivated to try and prove that he belongs as a started in the NFL over the final three weeks, and you could see that against the Colts last week.
The Redskins are 6-8, and they have the numbers of a 6-8 team. They are getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season. They have been hit hard by injuries on both sides of the football. Their defense is giving up points in bunches and cannot be trusted. The Redskins have allowed 30 or more points in six of their last nine games overall.
The Redskins were fortunate to beat the Cardinals 20-15 last week. They were outgunned 218 to 286 by the Cardinals, but Arizona was held to five field goals, and their red zone struggles were the difference. The Redskins have been held to 65 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games. They are going to be one-dimensional because Denver ranks 4th in the NFL against the run. But the Broncos are 2nd against the pass, so they are as equipped as anyone to stop Kirk Cousins and Washington’s preferred pass attack.
I like the fact that the Broncos come in on extra rest here too after playing the Colts last Thursday. That will give them ample time to get ready for Washington, and getting a few extra days of rest is huge this late in the season when players are worn down. It will make them the more energized team heading into this game Sunday.
Washington is 61-94 ATS in its last 155 games as a favorite, including 42-69 ATS in its last 111 games as a home favorite. The Redskins are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 home games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%. Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win. The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. Bet the Broncos Sunday.
|12-24-17||Browns +6.5 v. Bears||3-20||Loss||-110||98 h 27 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6.5
The Cleveland Browns will continue fighting over these final two weeks to try and avoid a winless season. Now they have one of their best chances yet to get a win this week against the 4-10 Chicago Bears. And they are getting 6.5 points to boot, which is too many I believe.
The Browns rank last in turnover differential by a wide margin this season. They are -25 in turnover differential. They haven’t forced a turnover in four games. I think they have been extremely unlucky this season in the turnover department.
Fortunately, this week they’re up against a Bears defense that doesn’t force many turnovers. The Bears have only forced 19 turnovers on the season. And Chicago has a ton of injury issues right now on defense that will make life easier on Deshon Kizer and the Browns offense.
This is a good matchup for the Browns on defense as well. The strength of the Browns is their rushing defense, which ranks 7th in the NFL in giving up just 96.1 rushing yards per game. The Browns are actually 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per carry (3.3) allowed. The Bears only average 177 passing yards per game, so stopping the rushing attack is the key to stopping them. The Bears average 118 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. Cleveland is equipped to slow down Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.
My favorite trend in this game pertains to Chicago head coach John Fox. Fox is 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Bears. Chicago is losing by 8.4 points per game in this spot. That’s right, the Bears have never even won a game straight up in seven tries as a favorite under Fox.
Chicago is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 home games versus poor offensive teams that score 17 or fewer points per game. Plays on road underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS since 1983. The Browns are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Take the Browns Sunday.
|12-23-17||Vikings -8 v. Packers||16-0||Win||100||13 h 45 m||Show|
15* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota -8
The Green Bay Packers have quit. They just suffered their dream-crushing loss last week despite the return of Aaron Rodgers. Now they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs. As a result, management has decided to put Rodgers back on injured reserve, signaling to the entire team that they don’t care about these last two games.
The Packers also have a laundry list of injuries elsewhere outside of Rodgers. There are currently 19 players either on injured reserve or questionable, including WR Devante Adams, who has 10 touchdowns receptions on the season.
Adams would be a huge loss, and it would be smart of the Packers to rest him considering it’s the second severe concussion he has suffered this season. They shouldn’t risk his long-term health. The Vikings have a shutdown corner in Xavier Rhodes, and they’ll put him on Jordy Nelson. Brett Hundley won’t have many options outside, and those limitations are a big reason why I like the Vikings this week.
The Vikings will be highly motivated. They need to keep winning to clinch a first-round bye. If they were to lose and the Panthers were to win this week, they would lose the tiebreaker to the Panthers because of a head-to-head loss. That’s why I’m not concerned at all about Minnesota’s motivation. They would love to kick the Packers while they’re down after so many years of frustration against them in this division.
"I told my team this: We're a good team, we're not a great team,” Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer said. "I don't know if there's any great teams out there, but we're a good team. We don't have the luxury of looking past anybody, and that's really not our mentality as a football team (or) the kind of guys that we have.”
Hundley will face a huge challenge against a Vikings defense that ranks second in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense. Conversely, Case Keenum is in line for a big day. He is ranked eighth in the NFL in passer rating (98.9) and second in completion percentage (67.9). Green Bay is No. 30 in opponent passer rating (100.5) and No. 30 in opponent completion percentage (68.4). The Packers gave up four touchdown passes to Cam Newton and a season-worst 29 first downs last week.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or less are 54-23 (70.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Vikings are 41-16 ATS in their last 57 games overall. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Vikings Saturday.
|12-18-17||Falcons v. Bucs OVER 47.5||Top||24-21||Loss||-110||164 h 37 m||Show|
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 47.5
The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Bucs should easily combine for enough points to sail over this 47.5-point total Monday night. After all, they have played in some big-time shootouts in all meetings over the past two seasons. I don’t expect anything to change with perfect weather expected for Tampa on Monday night. It’s supposed to by 79 degrees with 5-10 MPH winds and a 10% chance of ran as of this writing.
The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings over the past two seasons with combined scores of 55, 71 and 54 points. That’s an average of 60 combined points per game, which is 12.5 points more than this 47.5-point total. And that 71-point effort came last year in Tampa Bay.
None of those results were fluky either as both teams have been able to move the ball at will against one another. Atlanta has averaged 33.7 points and 450.3 yards per game in the three meetings. Tampa Bay has averaged 26.3 points and 380 yards per game in the three meetings.
I think the fact that Atlanta has played two straight unders against two great defensive teams in New Orleans and Minnesota is keeping this line lower than it should be. But the Falcons should have no problem getting back going offensively this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Atlanta still has an elite offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL In yards per play (6.0) despite the media perceiving their offense as down this year.
Tampa Bay ranks 31st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 389.3 yards per game. The Bucs also rank dead last in yards per play defense, giving up 6.1 yards per play. They are missing several key players on defense, including arguably their best defender in DT Gerald McCoy, who is out with a biceps injury.
James Winston returned against the Packers two weeks ago and has actually had no problem moving the ball. The Bucs racked up 395 total yards against the Packers and 410 against the Lions and arguably should have won both games. But the lost in overtime to the Packers and fell by a field goal to the Lions only because they committed five turnovers against Detroit. They have also found a running game, rushing for 165 yards against the Packers and 133 against the Lions.
Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER after allowing 7 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 8-1 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years. The Falcons are 10-2 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 10-0-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 5-1 in Falcons last six Monday night games. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.
|12-17-17||Titans v. 49ers -2||Top||23-25||Push||0||149 h 19 m||Show|
25* NFL West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -2
I’ve backed the 49ers with success in each of Jimmy Garoppolo’s first two starts. I’m not about to buck them now as I think they are still being undervalued as only 2-point home favorites over the Tennessee Titans. The 49ers have new life under Garoppolo, and they are treating this like a separate season. They are 2-0 in this new season.
The 49ers won Garoppolo’s first start 15-14 at Chicago as 2.5-point underdogs. That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. They outgained the Bears by 241 yards and should have won by a lot more. But they had red zone struggles with penalties and critical mistakes that had them settling for five field goals.
Then last week the 49ers went into Houston and won 26-16 as 1-point road underdogs. They outgained the Texans by 105 yards in that contest. Garoppolo threw for 334 yards and a touchdown in the win. The 49ers put up 416 total yards a week after amassing 388 total yards against a good Bears defense. This is a completely new offense with Garoppolo, a much more dynamic one that is undervalued.
The fact that the offense can actually move the ball and score points has the defense rejuvenated. And boy, is this defense playing well. The 49ers have one of the better front sevens in the league defensively, and they are showing it lately. San Francisco has given up just 229 total yards per game in their last two contests against the Bears and Texans.
The Titans are the single-most overrated team in the NFL. They are a fraudulent 8-5 and are not a playoff team. They have actually been outscored by 21 points on the season despite that 8-5 record. They are also getting outgained on the season as their numbers just aren’t very good.
Tennessee really only has one win by more than one score this season. That’s because I don’t count their wins over the Colts and Texans earlier where Derrick Henry ran for 70-plus yards for touchdowns in the final seconds when they were just trying to run out the clock. Both runs he could have gone down and the game would have been over. It led to brutal bad beats if you were on the Colts or Texans in those two games.
The Titans lost 7-12 at Arizona last week. Marcus Mariota looks broken, and the running game cannot get going. The Titans managed just 204 total yards in the loss. Mariota went 16-of-31 passing for 159 yards and two interceptions. He hurt his knee early and played through it, and that could be an issue again this week. The Titans have been held to 92 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last 10 games. They just haven’t been able to run the ball like they did last year, and they won’t be able to against this stout San Francisco front seven, either.
San Francisco is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset win as a road underdog. The Titans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games. Tennessee is 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Mike Mularkey is 4-14 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Tennessee. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
|12-17-17||Patriots v. Steelers +3||27-24||Push||0||80 h 30 m||Show|
15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3
The Pittsburgh Steelers are ready to turn the corner against the New England Patriots and exorcise their demons. The Patriots have owned them, including their 36-17 win in the AFC Championship Game. But Le’Veon Bell was hurt on the first drive of that game and did not return.
Now the three B’s are all healthy and are the only 3,000-yard, 1,000-yard, 1,000-yard trio in the NFL up to this point. And the Steelers are remarkably healthy as a whole. They get JuJu Smith-Schuster back from suspension this week, and CB Joe Haden could make his return this week as well. The only real significant loss is LB Ryan Shazier, and while that is a big loss, there’s no question the Steelers are the more healthy team.
The Patriots are banged up everywhere, but mostly along the defensive front seven. They have played without both Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy in recent weeks, and Alan Branch was injured against Miami and forced to leave the game. All three players are highly questionable, leaving the Patriots short of pass rushers, which is why they signed Ricky Jean Francois this week. Van Noy, Flowers and Branch are three of the most important players on defense. They could not get any pressure on Jay Cutler last week.
Their task gets even tougher this week against a Steelers offense that just put up 545 total yards against a very good Ravens defense last week. Big Ben three for 506 yards and two touchdowns in the win. The Steelers are the definition of an elite team. They are outgaining their opponents by 77 yards per game on the season. They have outgained 11 of their 13 opponents this year.
This is an awful spot for the Patriots. They will be playing their 3rd straight road game, and their 5th road game in the past 6 weeks. That’s about as tough of a situation as any NFL team can be in. Plus, they will now be working on a short week having played the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. I think the Steelers will be the fresher, more motivated team this week and that will greatly aid them in pulling off the upset victory.
This line suggests the Patriots would be 6-point favorites on a neutral and 9-point favorites at home when you factor in home-field advantage, so that fact alone shows there’s value on the Steelers as I would back them at both of those lines.
Having a healthy Bell will be key in exploiting the biggest weakness of the Patriots, which is stopping the run. The Patriots actually give up 5.0 yards per carry this season, which is the worst mark in the NFL. Expect a monster game from a motivated Bell who wants to prove that he was the difference as to why they lost in the AFC Championship Game last year.
Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more rushing yards per carry in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Steelers are 40-20 ATS in their last 60 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or more. Pittsburgh is 19-6-2 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. Mike Tomlin is 7-0 ATS in home games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points as the coach of Pittsburgh. Roll with the Steelers Sunday.
|12-17-17||Ravens v. Browns +7||27-10||Loss||-105||92 h 20 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +7
You have to have some seriously thick skin if you’ve backed the Cleveland Browns and continued to do so this season. They are just 3-10 ATS on the year, but could easily be 10-3 ATS instead. There have been eight ATS losses where they had a chance to cover in the closing seconds and haven’t gotten the job done.
It happened again last week as they led by 14 in the 4th quarter against the Packers, but ended up losing by 6 in overtime. So even backers who had Cleveland +3 couldn’t even get a push, even though it was the right side the entire game until the final play. But I think the value is with the Browns as 7-point home underdogs this week to the Ravens. When you’re getting 7 points, it means you can’t lose in overtime.
The Browns are clearly way better than their 0-13 record. They have the stats of a 6-7 or 5-8 team. They are only getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season and 0.2 yards per play. We saw the Browns fight down the stretch last year to avoid a winless this season. I think they’ll do the same this season, especially since a win wouldn’t cost them the No. 1 pick considering every other team in the NFL has at least two wins.
Statistically, the Ravens have been a worse team than the Browns. They rank worse in total offense and total defense. They are getting outgained by 31 yards per game on the season and 0.4 yards per play. I question the fight the Ravens will have this week after their deflating 39-38 loss to Pittsburgh last week. They blew a double-digit lead to their biggest rivals, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they have a ‘hangover’ effect from hat defeat.
Big Ten threw for over 500 yards against Baltimore’s defense last week. It’s clear that the loss of Jimmy Smith is a big one for the Ravens as the Steelers did whatever they wanted to through the air. The Browns now have two legitimate weapons at receiver to exploit the Ravens. Corey Coleman is back healthy now, and Josh Gordon has returned from suspension and has been a huge factor already in the passing game. This Cleveland offense has a ton of potential moving forward.
Cleveland has outgained Baltimore in four of the last five meetings in this series, including a 386-337 yard edge in their first meeting this year. The Ravens won that game 24-10, but only due to five turnovers by the Browns. The Browns had multiple chances to cover as 7.5-point dogs, but kept turning the ball over deep in Baltimore territory.
Now Baltimore is basically an identical 7-point favorite in the rematch. Flipping home field should be a 6-point difference, which would mean Baltimore would be a 1.5-point favorite based on the 7.5-point spread in the first meeting. I think there’s value on the Browns at +7 because of this. The Ravens may win, but it won’t be by more than a touchdown.
Baltimore is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons. The Ravens are 1-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three years. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) after 8-plus games are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take the Browns Sunday.
|12-16-17||Bears +6 v. Lions||Top||10-20||Loss||-110||112 h 38 m||Show|
20* Bears/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago +6
The Chicago Bears have played nine straight games with Mitchell Trubisky as their starting quarterback. They have only lost one game by more than 8 points, and that came on the road against the juggernaut that is the Philadelphia Eagles. So they have been competitive in eight of their nine games. And now they are catching 6 points on the road against the Detroit Lions this week.
Trubisky is coming off his best game of the season. He completed 25-of-32 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for a score in a 33-7 win at Cincinnati as 6-point dogs. The Bears also rushed for 232 yards as a team and racked up a season-high 482 yards in the win.
Another one of the Bears’ best offensive performances this year came a few weeks ago on November 19th in a 24-27 home loss to the Detroit Lions. The Bears actually outgunned the Lions 398 to 352 in that contest and arguably should have won. They rushed for 222 yards on that Lions defense. Now they will want revenge only a few weeks later, and I think they have a great chance to pull the upset as the offense continues to click against an awful Detroit defense.
The Lions aren’t the type of team used to blowing teams out, which is what it’s going to take to cover this 6-point spread. And their defense is not good enough to be favored this heavily. The Lions rank 27th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 363.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play. They needed five turnovers last week just to beat the hapless Bucs 24-21.
What makes the Bears so underrated is that their defense is very good, and they have a strong running game. The Bears rank 11th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 325.5 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. They rank 7th in rushing offense, averaging 124.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. The Lions are 20th against the run, giving up 116.3 yards per game and 4.2 per carry. They have allowed an average of 158.6 rushing yards per game in their last five contests.
This head-to-head series has been extremely tight in recent meetings. In fact, each of the last six meetings between the Lions and Bears have been decided by 6 points or fewer. Each of the last five have been decided by 4 points or less. That fact alone just shows the kind of line value we are getting with the Bears catching 6 points here Saturday.
Detroit is 29-51 ATS in its last 80 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers against an opponent off a game where they committed no turnovers are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Bears Saturday.
|12-14-17||Broncos -2 v. Colts||Top||25-13||Win||100||66 h 45 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Colts AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver -2
The Denver Broncos are just 4-9 this season, but they have the statistics of a team that should be sitting with a winning record and in the playoff hunt. That is why they are undervalued right now, and I think we are getting a discount on them here Thursday as only 2-point road favorites over the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts are 3-10 this season and they have the statistics of a team that would be 3-10. They are right where they should be. They are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that has shown with four consecutive losses and seven losses in their last eight games. They aren’t going to win this game, either.
The Broncos are actually outgaining their opponents by 32 yards per game on the season. They are led by a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 280.5 yards per game. They are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play defense, giving up only 4.7 yards per play. They are 22nd in total offense at 312.1 yards per game. Not great, but way better than the Colts.
The Colts are getting outgained by 85 yards per game, which is far and away the worst mark in the NFL. They rank 30th in total defense (375.3 yards/game) and 30th in yards per play (5.9) defense. They are 31st in total offense (290.7 yards/game) and 32nd in yards per play (4.6) offense.
I think the short week actually hurts the Colts more. They have to travel back home from the snow fest in Buffalo in which they lost 13-7 in the final minutes of overtime. That game had to take a lot out of them, and don’t be surprised if many of these Colts players come down with illnesses after having to play in the elements. This is a dome team not used to having to go outdoors and play in the snow like that.
Meanwhile, the Broncos made easy work of the Jets 23-0 last week. They limited the Jets to just 100 total yards in the win. It helped that they got Aqib Talib back. After spending little energy to put away the Jets, the Broncos should still be fresh. That’s key with this short week. That effort also shows that the Broncos have not quit on their season.
The Colts will be without starting center Ryan Kelly, wide receiver Donte Moncrief, slot corner Nate Hairston and cornerback Rahsaan Melvin against the Broncos. The Kelly injury is huge because he is their best offensive lineman. No quarterback has been sacked more than Jacoby Brissett this year. That makes this a great matchup for the Broncos, who are excellent at getting after opposing quarterbacks.
Plays on road teams (Denver) a slow starting team that is outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after allowing 6 points or fewer last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Indianapolis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. Bet the Broncos Thursday.
|12-11-17||Patriots v. Dolphins +11.5||Top||20-27||Win||100||97 h 58 m||Show|
20* Patriots/Dolphins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +11.5
The New England Patriots are in a tough spot here. They know that their game against Pittsburgh next week will decide which team gets home-field advantage in the AFC. Even a well-coached team like the Patriots can’t help but look ahead to a game like that. They can afford to lose this game to the Dolphins, because no matter what happens this week, the game next week against the Steelers is for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Now the Patriots have to play a team that they just beat 35-17 two weeks ago in the Dolphins. They probably feel like they can just show up and win this week. But it won’t be that easy as the Dolphins will come to play against their biggest rivals, and they’ll want to exact some revenge. And this time around the Dolphins will have Jay Cutler instead of Matt Moore.
Say what you want about Cutler, but he has actually played pretty well for the Dolphins this season. He is completing 63.9% of his passes with a 15-to-11 TD/INT ratio. He is coming off a great game against a good pass Denver defense. He threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Dolphins to a 35-9 win over the Broncos. The defense limited the Broncos to just 270 total yards and continues to play pretty well this season.
This is a Dolphins defense that is giving up just 20.8 points, 286 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home this season. Their job just got a lot easier when it was announced earlier this week that Tom Brady’s favorite target in Rob Gronkowski will be suspended for this game due to a late hit against Buffalo. Gronk had nine receptions for 147 yards against the Bills last week. He had five receptions for 82 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins two weeks ago, so his loss is huge for the Patriots.
Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings. The Dolphins have actually won three of their last four home meetings with the Patriots outright. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Miami. What also makes this a tough spot for the Patriots is that they will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks, and their 5th in 6 weeks next week against the Steelers.
The Dolphins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Dolphins Monday.
|12-10-17||Ravens +5 v. Steelers||Top||38-39||Win||100||106 h 37 m||Show|
20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore +5
Quietly, the Baltimore Ravens have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall to get to 7-5 and in the playoffs if the season were to end today. But they have a bunch of teams on their heels right now at 6-6 and cannot afford losses at this point. Clearly they won’t need any added motivation, but they get to play their biggest rivals in the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.
This 4-1 run has been mighty impressive. It has included two shutout victories, and three victories by 23 or more points. They have beaten the Dolphins 40-0, the Packers 23-0, the Lions 44-20 and the Texans 23-16. Their only loss came by a mere three points in a 20-23 road loss to the 8-4 Tennessee Titans. They have outscored their last five opponents by a combined 91 points, or an average of 18.2 points per game.
Sure, the Pittsburgh Steelers have won seven straight coming in, but five of those wins came by 6 points or fewer. And three of their last four wins came by exactly a field goal in lackluster efforts against inferior teams. They won 20-17 at Indianapolis as 10.5-point favorites, 31-28 over Green Bay as 14-point favorites and 23-20 at Cincinnati as 4.5-point favorites. I think they are way overvalued right now due to this 7-game winning streak.
While the Ravens need this game like they need water, the Steelers actually do not. Sure, they’ll be motivated to play their biggest rivals, but in the back of their minds they know that their game against the New England Patriots next week will be for all the marbles. The Steelers and Patriots are both 10-2, so the Steelers could afford to lose this game and still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they beat the Patriots next week, which would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker. I certainly question their motivation this week because of this scenario.
The Steelers also lost some key players in that hard-hitting game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. That means the’ll be working on a short week as well after playing on Monday. Ryan Shazier was hospitalized with a back injury, and he is their most important player on defense. He is their leading tackler, and his sideline-to-sideline speed will be missed. Not to mention, No. 2 receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster has been suspended for this game for his hit on Vontaze Burfict. That’s a big loss because Martavis Bryant has been a huge disappointment, and he’ll be asked to fill JuJu’s shoes.
Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game. This Ravens offense has come to life in averaging 30.0 points per game in their last five. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC North opponents. Baltimore is 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Pittsburgh. The Ravens will want revenge from their 26-9 loss to the Steelers earlier this season back when they were really hurting injury-wise. They are much healthier now. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
|12-10-17||Redskins v. Chargers -5.5||13-30||Win||100||63 h 45 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Chargers -5.5
The Los Angeles Chargers have shown some tremendous resiliency this season. After opening 0-4, they have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and are playing as well as almost anyone in the NFL. Not only are they winning, they are dominating.
Each of their last four wins have all come by 9 points or more, including a 21-point win over Denver, a 30-point win over Buffalo and a 22-point win at Dallas. Their only two losses during this stretch both came on the road against two of the best teams in the NFL. They lost 13-21 at New England and 17-20 at Jacksonville in overtime, so they were competitive in both losses.
This recent run has put the Chargers in a great position to win the AFC West and make the playoffs. They are now in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Raiders for first place. That makes this game against the Redskins massive for them, so they should be 100% focused and will actually have a home-field advantage now with their fans rejuvenated.
Conversely, the Washington Redskins suffered their ‘dream crusher’ loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys by a final of 14-38 on the road. They completely imploded, committing four turnovers. Now they are sitting at 5-7 on the season and have zero chance of making the playoffs in the stacked NFC, where it would take an 8-4 record to be in the playoffs right now. I don’t expect the Redskins to bring their ‘A’ effort this week.
It’s worth noting that the Redskins still have massive injury issues all over the field. They are missing up to three starters along the offensive line, which is the biggest concern against an elite Chargers pass rush that boasts Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Kirk Cousins was running for his life last week against Dallas, and it certainly won’t get any easier for him against the Chargers this week. They are also missing several key playmakers like Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson.
Philip Rivers and this offense are hitting on all cylinders. The Chargers are averaging 33.7 points and 457.7 yards per game in their last three contests. That’s bad news for a Washington defense that has allowed 33 or more points in five of its last seven games overall. Rivers has thrown for 1,039 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.
The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 14. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Los Angeles is 29-10 ATS in its last 39 games after winning six or seven of its last eight games coming in.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Chargers) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with the Chargers Sunday.
|12-10-17||49ers +3 v. Texans||26-16||Win||100||95 h 53 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3
I backed the 49ers as my upset shocker last week against the Bears and they delivered, winning outright as identical 3-point underdogs. I’m going to back them again this week with the same play title as I fully expect them to win outright as 3-point dogs against the Houston Texans.
The 49ers have new life with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. He is a massive upgrade over C.J. Beathard before him, and I think he’s worth closer to a touchdown against the spread than a field goal. This team was competitive before Beathard, losing five consecutive games by three points or fewer. And they’ll be competitive the rest of the way with Garoppolo now.
I don’t think the 49ers are exactly getting the respect they deserve this week because they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Bears last week. But that game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed. The 49ers outgained the Bears by 241 total yards, gaining 388 total yards on offense and limiting the Bears to just 147 total yards on defense. One of the Bears’ two touchdowns was a 61-yard punt return TD.
Garoppolo was awesome, throwing for 293 yards on 26-of-37 passing. He connected was 8-for-8 to Marquise Goodwin and 6-for-6 to Trent Taylor, his two best receivers. His accuracy was impressive. The 49ers had to settle for five field goals, but it wasn’t Garoppolo’s fault as they kept committing costly penalties in the red zone. Look for them to clean up those mistakes and for the 49ers’ offense to be even more sharp this week in Garoppolo’s second start with his new team.
The Houston Texans are a mess right now. They have gone 1-4 in their five games since Deshaun Watson got hurt, and they are now 1-5 in games that Watson doesn’t start this year. They sit at 4-8 on the season and essentially eliminated from postseason contention after their tough 13-24 loss in Tennessee last week. There’s just nothing to like about this Texans team right now.
First and foremost, their injury list just got even longer. They were already without Watson, Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt and several others, but then they suffered more key injuries last week. TE C.J. Fiedorowicz, CB Jonathan Joseph, WR Braxton Miller, WR Bruce Ellington and RB Alfred Blue were all knocked out of last week’s game against the Titans.
They were already without WR Will Fuller for the past three games, so they are very limited at the receiver position right now. Tom Savage is terrible, and it’s no wonder they have been held to 16 or fewer points 5 of their 6 games without Watson this season. The 49ers are simply the better team right now on offense and defense, and they should not be dogs in this game.
San Francisco is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%. Houston is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games after passing for 300-plus yards in its previous game. Take the 49ers Sunday.
|12-07-17||Saints v. Falcons +2||Top||17-20||Win||100||34 h 43 m||Show|
25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +2
Let’s start by looking at this number from a value perspective. This line of New Orleans -2 indicates the Saints would be 8-point favorites at home against the Falcons. They would be 5-point favorites on a neutral field. I would be all over the Falcons in both scenarios, and I’m all over them Thursday night as home dogs to the Saints.
I think this line is an overreaction from what happened last week. The Saints beat an overrated Panthers team 31-21 at home, while the Falcons were upset 9-14 at home by the underrated Vikings. The Falcons went 1-for-10 on 3rd down, which was the difference in that game.
But we saw earlier this season the Saints lost 19-29 to Minnesota on the road, so the loss to the Vikings is not a bad one. And the Falcons go from being favored by 2 against a better team in Minnesota to being 2-point home underdogs to a worse team in the Saints this week. From a value perspective, this couldn’t be much better situation for the Falcons.
Speaking of situations, this game is a lot more important for Atlanta than it is for New Orleans. The Falcons are actually one game back in the wild card. And they still feel like they can win the NFC South, which they can with the way the schedule sets up. They trail the Saints by two games and still get to play them twice, while also getting to host the Panthers. If the Panthers win out, they will be NFC South champs. So their outlook is a very positive one right now even with the loss to the Vikings.
It’s also a bad spot for the Saints working on a short week here and having to travel. The short week won’t affect the Falcons nearly as much because they played at home last week, so they will have max preparation time remaining at home here for this Thursday night tilt.
While the Falcons are very healthy right now, the same cannot be said for the Saints. S Williams, CB Lattimore, CB Williams, CB Crawley, T Peat, T Armstead, and RB Ingram are all questionable for New Orleans. Not to mention they have 15 players on injured reserve compared to just two for Atlanta.
Atlanta won both meetings with New Orleans last season, scoring a combined 83 points in the two wins and amassing 907 total yards in the two victories. The game in Atlanta last year finished 38-32, but it was a 38-13 game entering the fourth quarter before the Falcons called off the dogs.
The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games. Atlanta is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. NFC opponents. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Bet the Falcons Thursday.
|12-04-17||Steelers v. Bengals +6||Top||23-20||Win||100||90 h 25 m||Show|
20* Steelers/Bengals AFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati +6
Let’s look at this number from a value perspective. Pittsburgh was only a 4-point home favorite over Cincinnati the first time these teams played this season. Now the Steelers are 6-point road favorites in the rematch. Factor in home-field advantage, and this line indicates the Steelers would be 12-point favorites at home if they played again right now. That’s a whopping 8-point adjustment mostly based off public perception, and it shows that the value is clearly with the Bengals.
Another reason I like the Bengals here is that their season is on the line. The Bengals have saved their season by earning back-to-back victories over Denver and Cleveland to get to 5-6 on the season. They are now just one game back of the 6-5 Ravens for the final wild card spot in the AFC. They certainly need this game more than the Steelers right now.
The Steelers showed last week that they are vulnerable. The Packers gave them all they wanted in a 31-28 victory on a last-second field goal. The Steelers are 14-point favorites in that game. They let Brett Hundley do whatever he wanted. Their defense is missing several key players, including CB Joe Haden. Not to mention, S Mike Mitchell, LB Ryan Shazier, CB Cam Sutton and LB James Harrison are all questionable.
Now the Steelers will be up agains the underrated Andy Dalton, who actually has a better quarterback rating than Carson Wentz does over the past five weeks. Dalton is completing 62% of his passes for 2,372 yards with 18 touchdowns and only eight interceptions on the season.
I would argue that the Bengals have the better defense right now. They are giving up just 19.5 points per game on the season, including 17.6 points per game at home. The Bengals actually rank 4th in the NFL in yards per play (4.8) allowed, ranking right up there with the Jaguars, Vikings, Ravens and Eagles. This is an elite defense and one that doesn’t get the respect that some of these other top defenses do.
It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh star receiver Antonio Brown has a nagging toe injury that forced him to miss practice on Friday and Saturday. He is going to be a game-time decision. Jeremy Fowler reported that the Steelers are preparing to play without him. Martavis Bryant would stay in his role, while JuJu Smith-Shuster would likely take Brown’s role if it came to it.
The Steelers might be wise to rest Brown given their positioning. They are tied with the Patriots are 9-2, and 3rd place in the AFC is 7-4. So even if they lost this game they would still be in line for a first-round bye. They would also be in line for home-field advantage because they actually host New England in three weeks. They get three of their final four games at home. So as long as they win out following a loss this week, they would still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six December games. Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Marvin Lewis is 33-20 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as the coach of Cincinnati. Bet the Bengals Monday.
|12-03-17||Eagles v. Seahawks +6||Top||10-24||Win||100||66 h 25 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Seahawks NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Seattle +6
What would this line have been before the season? Seattle -7 is my guess. That’s how much the public perception of these two have changed heading into Week 13 of the season. Certainly the Eagles have earned that respect with their 10-1 record, but they should not be favored by 6 points in Seattle this week. The value is clearly with the home underdog Seahawks.
The Seahawks haven’t been blown out all year. They are 7-4 with all four losses coming by 8 points or less. They haven’t lost any of their last 10 games by more than 6 points. Russell Wilson always keeps his team in games. He is guiding a Seattle offense that is putting up 28.8 points, 413 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play at home this season.
A lot has been made about the injuries to Seattle’s defense, but the Seahawks have actually played very well in their past two games despite the injuries. They have given up fewer than 300 total yards in four straight games. They allowed just 244 to Washington, 290 to Arizona, 279 to Arizona and 280 to San Francisco. These injuries haven’t affected their defense as much as the media is letting on.
I realize the Seahawks have lost two straight home games, but they were two fluky losses. They outgained the Redskins by 193 yards in their 14-17 loss and they outgained the Falcons by 81 yards in their 31-34 loss. I think those misleading finals, clearly two games the Seahawks should have won, have them undervalued right now. And it’s worth noting that the Seahawks haven’t lost three straight home games since 2008.
Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS this season, and that’s why the betting public just loves them right now. And they have won four straight games by 20-plus points. But all four came against cupcakes in Denver, San Francisco, Chicago and a Dallas team that was a mess at the time they played them. And four of the last five games for the Eagles have been at home. It will be much more difficult for them to play at such a high level on the road here against the 12th man in Seattle. This is a huge step up in class for the Eagles.
Pete Caroll is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Seattle. Carroll is 11-2 ATS versus good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or fewer yards per carry as the coach of the Seahawks. The Seahawks are 20-6 SU & 20-5-1 ATS in December games over the past six seasons. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Philadelphia.
Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - excellent offensive team scoring 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take the Seahawks Sunday.
|12-03-17||Rams v. Cardinals +7||Top||32-16||Loss||-105||62 h 20 m||Show|
25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona Cardinals +7
The spot for the Los Angeles Rams couldn’t be worse. They are coming off two straight huge games against the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints the past two weeks. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Arizona Cardinals now.
Not to mention, the Rams play the Eagles next week and the Seahawks the following week, so this is a massive lookahead spot of them. This is the sandwich game here against the Cardinals, and I just don’t think they will have the focus or energy it’s going to take to put Arizona away by more than a touchdown.
Conversely, this is a huge game for the Cardinals. They sit at 5-6 right now and a win here would keep them in the playoff hunt. They picked up a big 27-24 upset win over the Jaguars last week, limiting the Jaguars to just 229 total yards behind a dominant defensive effort.
Blaine Gabbert has given this offense new life, scoring 21 and 27 points against the Texans and Jaguars, respectively, the past two weeks. He went 22-of-34 for 244 yards against Houston and 22-of-38 for 236 yards against Jacksonville’s top-ranked pass defense. He has played so well that head coach Bruce Arians has given him a vote of confidence for possibly being their starter next season.
Speaking of Arians, I love backing his teams when they are home underdogs. In fact, Arians is 11-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached. His teams are actually winning these games by 3.0 points per game on average. His teams simply come to play against the best teams when they are counted out at home.
The Cardinals will want revenge from their 33-0 loss to the Rams in London in their first meeting this season. Carson Palmer got hurt in that game and it spiraled out of control. The Rams probably just feel like they have to show up to win, so they won’t be as focused as Arizona here.
And from a value standpoint, it’s easy to see that the value is with the Cardinals when you compare this line to the line in London. The Rams were only 3-point favorites over the Cardinals in London. Now they are 7-point road favorites in the rematch. When you factor in home-field advantage, this is basically a 7-point adjustment as the line says the Rams would be -10 on a neutral now. The value is clearly with Arizona. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
|12-03-17||49ers +3 v. Bears||15-14||Win||105||59 h 55 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3
Jimmy Garoppolo starting for the San Francisco 49ers this week is a massive upgrade at quarterback over C.J. Beathard. It’s worth at least 4 points to the line, if not more. Beathard was the worst quarterback in the NFL when he was in there. The 49ers didn’t even score a touchdown until he got hurt last week against Seattle in the closing seconds, and Garoppolo came in and threw two passes, including a touchdown pass.
The 49ers now have new life with Garoppolo at the helm. This team has shown no signs of quitting despite their 1-10 record. Keep in mind they lost five games in a row all by a field goal or less back when they had a competent QB in Brian Hoyer. Now Garopollo is an upgrade over Hoyer too. And he’s from the Chicago area, so he won’t be phased at all by the weather in Chicago.
While the outlook is positive for the 49ers right now, it couldn’t be much worse for the Bears. Fans have been calling for John Fox’s head for weeks. The Bears have now lost four straight, including their 3-31 laugher at Philadelphia last week that was the last straw for fans of the team. They were outgained by 280 yards by the Eagles and held to just 140 total yards in defeat.
The Bears have a laundry list of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but their defense was respectable up until the last few weeks. These injuries have made this a below-average Chicago defense now. There’s no question the 49ers are the better offensive team with Garoppolo, and they are probably the better defensive team now due to these injuries for Chicago.
Speaking of Fox, he is 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. That’s right, the Bears have lost all six games outright in which they have been a favorite under his watch. They are losing these games by a shocking 9.6 points per game on average as well. Take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank today. Roll with the 49ers Sunday.
|12-03-17||Lions v. Ravens -2.5||20-44||Win||100||59 h 54 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Ravens -2.5
Certainly the situation favors the Detroit Lions here. They come in on extra rest after playing last Thursday, while the Baltimore Ravens are working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. However, I think this situation is being factored into the line too much, and getting the Ravens as only 2.5-point favorites is an excellent value.
The Ravens are rolling right now, making their push toward the playoffs. They will rise to the occasion in this difficult situation because they are built for December football under John Harbaugh. The Ravens have gone 3-1 in their last four games overall with shutout victories over Miami (40-0) and Green Bay (23-0), a 23-16 victory over Houston and a narrow 20-23 loss at Tennessee.
The Lions are a fraudulent 6-5 team. They are getting outgained by 25 yards per game on the season and by 0.3 yards per play on the year. Their defense allowed 359.4 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, ranking 25th in the NFL defensively from a yards-per-play basis.
Baltimore relies heavily on one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Ravens rank 3rd in defensive yards per play (4.8) allowed, 7th in yards per game (305.7) and 2nd in scoring defense (17.0 points per game). The offense is coming around in scoring 20-plus points in six of their last seven games overall.
Matthew Stafford was hobbled with an ankle injury against Minnesota last week that forced him out of the game. He would return, but he clearly didn’t look right. Stafford is a gamer and will play through the ankle injury, but he’ll be far from 100%. And he may not have top running back Ameer Abdullah, guard T.J. Lang and center Travis Swanson by his side this week. All three are questionable.
Jim Caldwell is 0-6 ATS after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored as the coach of Detroit. The Lions are 16-38 ATS in their last 54 after having won three of their last four games. Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.
Plays on home favorites (BALTIMORE) - after having won two out of their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
|11-30-17||Redskins -1.5 v. Cowboys||Top||14-38||Loss||-110||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Washington -1.5
The Dallas Cowboys are an absolute mess right now playing without two of their best players in Ezekiel Elliott and Sean Lee, among others. They have lost three straight games all via blowout, and there’s a reason they aren’t favored at home here tonight against the Redskins.
In the past three games without Elliott, their offense has sputtered. They are averaging just 7.3 points per game, 235 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. Dak Prescott has thrown five interceptions in his past two games, which is more than the four he threw all of his 2016 rookie season. Opponents don’t have to respect the play-action without Elliott, so Prescott is constantly under duress.
The defense has taken a big hit without Lee, who is as important to the Cowboys as Luke Kuechly is to the Panthers, which is saying a lot. The Cowboys have given up 30.7 points per game, 411.3 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play in their last three.
With Lee on the field, opponents have an 89.3 passer rating, a 42.4 total QBR, an 8-5 TD/INT ratio, average 3.5 per carry and 1.6 yards before first contact. With Lee off the field this season, opponents have a 107.1 passer rating, a 69.2 total QBR, a 10-0 TD/INT ratio, average 5.8 yards per carry and 3.6 yards before first contact.
The Redskins have fought through injuries in recent weeks to go 2-2 with impressive wins over the Seahawks and Giants, and narrow losses to the Vikings and Saints. They limited the Giants to just 170 total yards in their 20-10 win last week. They are now getting healthier and should have a few more pieces back this week.
Kirk Cousins is playing great football with the second-most passing yards (3,038) in the league. Cousins has torched the Cowboys for 625 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two starts against them. Samaje Perine has rushed for 100-plus yards in consecutive games and has found his role in this offense. The Redskins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Dallas.
The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game over the past three seasons. Jason Garrett is 0-9 ATS in home game after scoring 14 points or less as the coach of Dallas. Garrett is 0-7 ATS in home game after a low by 10 points or more as the coach of Dallas. The Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. These five trends combine for a perfect 33-0 system backing Washington. Bet the Redskins Thursday.
|11-27-17||Texans v. Ravens -7||16-23||Push||0||34 h 13 m||Show|
15* Texans/Ravens ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Baltimore -7
|11-26-17||Saints v. Rams -2.5||Top||20-26||Win||100||113 h 32 m||Show|
20* Saints/Rams NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -2.5
|11-26-17||Seahawks v. 49ers +7||24-13||Loss||-115||39 h 41 m||Show|
15* Seahawks/49ers NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +7
|11-26-17||Bears +14 v. Eagles||3-31||Loss||-110||95 h 32 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +14
|11-23-17||Giants +7.5 v. Redskins||10-20||Loss||-110||45 h 19 m||Show|
15* Giants/Redskins Thanksgiving Night DESSERT on New York +7.5
|11-23-17||Chargers v. Cowboys||Top||28-6||Win||100||41 h 20 m||Show|
20* Chargers/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Los Angeles PK
|11-20-17||Falcons +3 v. Seahawks||Top||34-31||Win||100||148 h 12 m||Show|
20* Falcons/Seahawks ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Atlanta +3
|11-19-17||Eagles -3 v. Cowboys||Top||37-9||Win||100||162 h 28 m||Show|
25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles -3
|11-19-17||Bills +4.5 v. Chargers||24-54||Loss||-110||136 h 45 m||Show|
15* Bills/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +4.5
|11-19-17||Rams v. Vikings -2.5||Top||7-24||Win||100||155 h 7 m||Show|
20* Rams/Vikings NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5
|11-16-17||Titans +7 v. Steelers||Top||17-40||Loss||-110||77 h 2 m||Show|
20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +7
|11-13-17||Dolphins +10 v. Panthers||Top||21-45||Loss||-125||140 h 44 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +10
|11-12-17||Steelers v. Colts +10.5||20-17||Win||100||108 h 28 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +10.5
|11-12-17||Vikings -1 v. Redskins||Top||38-30||Win||100||108 h 28 m||Show|
20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Vikings -1
|11-12-17||Browns +13 v. Lions||Top||24-38||Loss||-120||108 h 27 m||Show|
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns +13
Another trend that is an eye-opener and makes sense backs the Browns this week. Teams who are 0-5 or worse and playing with 10 or more days' rest are 18-3 ATS in their last 21 tries. Winless teams are almost always undervalued, and this just shows how winless teams off extra rest have been such a good bet through the years.
It's worth noting that the Lions were only 9-point favorites prior to their game against Green Bay last week, and now they're 13-point favorites. That just goes to show you how the betting public overreacts from a win one week to the next. We're basically getting an extra 4 points of value now from the look-ahead line.
|11-09-17||Seahawks v. Cardinals +6.5||Top||22-16||Win||100||44 h 15 m||Show|
20* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +6.5
|11-06-17||Lions v. Packers +3||Top||30-17||Loss||-125||90 h 10 m||Show|
20* Lions/Packers NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay +3
|11-05-17||Redskins v. Seahawks -7||Top||17-14||Loss||-110||134 h 7 m||Show|
20* Redskins/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle -7
|11-05-17||Rams -3 v. Giants||Top||51-17||Win||100||103 h 9 m||Show|
25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams -3
|11-05-17||Ravens v. Titans -3||20-23||Push||0||60 h 53 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee Titans -3 The Tennessee Titans are undervalued right now because the last time we saw them, they needed overtime to beat the Cleveland Browns in an ugly 9-6 win on the road as 6.5-point favorites. But that was two weeks ago, meaning the Titans have had a bye week to correct some mistakes and get healthy. And boy did they need that bye. Marcus Mariota hasn't been his normal self the past two games as he has been slowed by a hamstring injury. So the bye really helped him, and he should be 100% now while using his biggest weapon, which is his legs. It has also given time for starters in S Johnathan Cyprien, WR Corey Davis and RB DeMarco Murray to return to the lineup from injuries. And TE Delanie Walker is battling a bone bruise in his right ankle, so the bye gave him some extra time as well. The Titans are now one of the more healthier teams in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens have as ugly an injury list as anyone in the NFL. They already have 11 players on injured reserve, 11 more players either questionable or out, and seven players probable with injuries. That's 29 players on the injury report. The key one came to Joe Flacco against Miami last week as he suffered a concussion and was knocked out of the game. Reports said he had blood coming out of his ears. He is going to play this week, but I can't help but think that hit Kiko Alonso put on him is going to be in the back of his mind the entire game. And while the Titans are undervalued right now, the Ravens are overvalued due to their 40-0 win over Miami last week. But that was about as misleading of a final as it gets, and the Dolphins are terrible as it is. The Ravens got two defensive touchdowns to aid their cause. The Ravens scored 40 points despite managing just 295 yards of total offense. I think we see the Ravens team that had lost four of its previous five games coming in, including a 7-44 loss to Jacksonville and a 9-26 loss to Pittsburgh. I think we get the Titans team that has dominated its last two home games. The Titans won 33-27 over Seattle in Week 3, and they won 36-22 over Indianapolis in Week 6 while outgaining them by 176 yards. The Titans will be happy to be home after playing three of their last four on the road. The Titans are 4-3 this season, but 4-1 in all games Marcus Mariota has started and finished. He is the key to this team. The Titans will have a huge edge on offense in this game. They have scored 33 or more points in three of the five games that Mariota has started and finished, and are averaging 26.8 points in those contests. The Ravens have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, ranking 31st in total offense at 279.8 yards per game and 31st in offensive yards per play (4.5). And defensively these teams are pretty much a wash with the Ravens allowing 317 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play, and the Titans 329 yards per game and 5.2 per play. So slight advantage for Baltimore on D, but huge advantages for Tennessee on offense, in rest and preparation with the bye, and on the injury front. Baltimore is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games off a blowout win by 21 points or more. John Harbaugh is 2-10 ATS in this situation as the coach of Baltimore. The Ravens are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Titans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Fans are finally excited about this team, and the Titans are regaining their home-field advantage that they didn't have in previous years. Roll with the Titans Sunday.
|11-02-17||Bills v. Jets +3.5||Top||21-34||Win||100||65 h 28 m||Show|
20* Bills/Jets AFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +3.5
|10-30-17||Broncos v. Chiefs -7||Top||19-29||Win||100||171 h 39 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Chiefs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Kansas City -7
|10-29-17||Raiders +3 v. Bills||Top||14-34||Loss||-115||147 h 47 m||Show|
20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Oakland Raiders +3
A big reason for this drop-off in production against the pass has been the injuries in the secondary for the Bills. Buffalo could be without two starters for Sunday's game. Safety Jordan Poyer (knee) and cornerback E.J. Gaines (hamstring) are both considered day-to-day, but they did not practice on Wednesday. Buffalo has allowed 350 passing yards per game since Week 5, the most in the NFL.
|10-29-17||Falcons -4 v. Jets||Top||25-20||Win||100||139 h 11 m||Show|
25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -4
|10-29-17||Panthers v. Bucs -1.5||17-3||Loss||-115||139 h 7 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Bucs -1.5
|10-29-17||49ers +13 v. Eagles||10-33||Loss||-110||120 h 24 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco 49ers +13
|10-29-17||Colts v. Bengals OVER 41||23-24||Win||100||82 h 5 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Colts/Bengals OVER 41
|10-26-17||Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens||Top||0-40||Loss||-110||82 h 19 m||Show|
20* Dolphins/Ravens NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Miami +3.5
|10-23-17||Redskins v. Eagles -4.5||Top||24-34||Win||100||98 h 43 m||Show|
20* Redskins/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia -4.5
|10-22-17||Bengals +6 v. Steelers||Top||14-29||Loss||-110||162 h 40 m||Show|
25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals +6
|10-22-17||Broncos v. Chargers||Top||0-21||Win||100||54 h 22 m||Show|
20* Broncos/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles PK
|10-22-17||Panthers v. Bears +3||3-17||Win||110||38 h 46 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3
|10-19-17||Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 47||Top||30-31||Loss||-102||49 h 24 m||Show|
20* Chiefs/Raiders AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 47
|10-16-17||Colts v. Titans UNDER 48.5||Top||22-36||Loss||-111||25 h 57 m||Show|
20* Colts/Titans NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNDER 48.5
|10-15-17||Steelers +5 v. Chiefs||19-13||Win||100||115 h 17 m||Show|
15* Steelers/Chiefs AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +5
|10-15-17||Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 46||19-13||Win||100||94 h 48 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 46
|10-15-17||Rams +3 v. Jaguars||27-17||Win||100||100 h 10 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Los Angeles Rams +3
|10-15-17||Lions v. Saints -3.5||Top||38-52||Win||100||147 h 53 m||Show|
25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -3.5
|10-15-17||Browns +10 v. Texans||17-33||Loss||-110||72 h 45 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +10
|10-12-17||Eagles v. Panthers UNDER 46.5||Top||28-23||Loss||-115||55 h 39 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Panthers NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 46.5
|10-09-17||Vikings v. Bears +3||Top||20-17||Push||0||56 h 54 m||Show|
20* Vikings/Bears ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +3
|10-08-17||Packers v. Cowboys -2||35-31||Loss||-110||117 h 49 m||Show|
15* Packers/Cowboys NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Dallas -2
|10-08-17||Seahawks v. Rams -1||16-10||Loss||-110||116 h 29 m||Show|
15* Seahawks/Rams NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -1
|10-08-17||Bills v. Bengals -2.5||Top||16-20||Win||100||159 h 58 m||Show|
25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
And now Taylor is going to be without leading receiver Jordan Matthews (10 receptions, 162 yards, 16.2/catch), who is expected to miss the next 3-4 weeks with a thumb injury. This Bills team hasn't been as good as their record as they are actually getting outgained by 22 yards per game on the season and dead even in yards per play. The Bengals are better than their record, outgaining teams by 19 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play.
|10-05-17||Patriots v. Bucs UNDER 56||Top||19-14||Win||100||49 h 55 m||Show|
20* Pats/Bucs NFL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 56
|10-02-17||Redskins v. Chiefs UNDER 49.5||Top||20-29||Win||100||147 h 25 m||Show|
25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Redskins/Chiefs UNDER 49.5
|10-01-17||Raiders v. Broncos -2.5||Top||10-16||Win||100||141 h 14 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Broncos Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver -2.5
|10-01-17||49ers +7 v. Cardinals||15-18||Win||100||123 h 37 m||Show|
15* 49ers/Cardinals NFC West No-Brainer on San Francisco +7
|10-01-17||Rams +7.5 v. Cowboys||35-30||Win||100||120 h 32 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Rams +7.5
|10-01-17||Lions v. Vikings -1.5||14-7||Loss||-110||69 h 31 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -1.5
|10-01-17||Saints -2 v. Dolphins||Top||20-0||Win||100||151 h 34 m||Show|
25* NFL Overseas GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints -2
|09-28-17||Bears v. Packers -6.5||14-35||Win||100||22 h 45 m||Show|
15* Bears/Packers NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay -6.5
|09-25-17||Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 47||Top||28-17||Win||100||123 h 13 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Cardinals MNF Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 47
|09-24-17||Bengals +9 v. Packers||24-27||Win||100||95 h 8 m||Show|
15* Bengals/Packers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +9
|09-24-17||Saints +6 v. Panthers||Top||34-13||Win||100||137 h 44 m||Show|
25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on New Orleans Saints +6
|09-24-17||Texans +13.5 v. Patriots||33-36||Win||100||92 h 43 m||Show|
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +13.5
|09-21-17||Rams v. 49ers +3||41-39||Win||100||27 h 8 m||Show|
15* Rams/49ers NFL Thursday No-Brainer on San Francisco +3
|09-18-17||Lions v. Giants -3.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-110||142 h 60 m||Show|
20* Lions/Giants ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York -3.5