Jeff Alexander Football Sides Picks
|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-01-14||Nebraska +9 v. Georgia||24-19||Win||100||21 h 24 m||Show|
4* Major Gator Bowl *SUREFIRE* on Nebraska +9
Bottom Line: The Bulldogs are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 versus a team with a winning record and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Cornhuskers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. They are also 13-5 ATS outside Lincoln, Nebraska under Pelini when coming off two ATS defeats in their last 3 games. The Huskers were tied 31-31 with Georgia late in last season's Capital One Bowl matchup before letting the game get away. Motivated to avenge that loss, I expect the Huskers to keep this one close.
|12-31-13||Duke +13 v. Texas A&M||48-52||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
4* Major Chick-fil-A Bowl Bailout on Duke +13
Bottom Line: Playing in this game is a major disappointment for a Texas A&M team that entered the season with national title hopes. Duke, on the other hand, has had its best season in a long time, and it will be looking to punctuate it. A&M is on a 6-21 ATS slide when playing away from home with a week of rest or more. The Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record. The Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
|12-31-13||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. UCLA||Top||12-42||Loss||-105||4 h 24 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy Sun Bowl *BEST BET* on Virginia Tech +7.5
Bottom Line: The Hokies are a reliable 43-31 ATS when matched up against a team with a win percentage greater than 75% under coach Beamer. They are also 45-32 ATS versus teams that outscore opponents by 10.0 ppg or more under Beamer. Virginia Tech has been to 21 consecutive bowls, and they have been defeated by more than 7 points just one time in their last 11 bowl appearances. Pound the Hokies.
|12-30-13||Texas Tech +14.5 v. Arizona State||37-23||Win||100||12 h 14 m||Show|
4* Major Holiday Bowl Bailout on Texas Tech +14.5
Bottom Line: The Sun Devils are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. The Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 27-11-3 ATS in their last 41 games after being held to less than 20 points in their previous game. Arizona State will have a tough time getting up for this game knowing they blew an opportunity to be Rose Bowl-bound. Texas Tech finished the season poorly so it has every incentive to put forth a good showing here. I'm not concerned about Baker Mayfield transferring as Davis Webb's numbers were better, and he's gotten the large majority of the reps during bowl prep.
|12-30-13||Ole Miss -3 v. Georgia Tech||Top||25-17||Win||100||5 h 10 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy Pre-New Year's Bowl Game of the Year on Ole Miss -3
Bottom Line: Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record this season, losing these contest by an average of 10.0 points. Ole Miss is 7-0 ATS under coach Freeze when entering a contest with losses in two of its last three games, winning these contests by 11.2 points on average. The Rebels are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 bowl games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Ole Miss has the speed to slow down Georgia Tech's triple-option attack, and it will be extremely prepared for it as defensive coordinator Dave Wommack served in the same role for two seasons under Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech. Pound Ole Miss.
|12-29-13||Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7||Top||24-22||Win||100||51 h 6 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy NFC East Game of the Year on Cowboys +7
Bottom Line: This line is a gross overreaction to Tony Romo being out. Frankly, I don't miss Romo at all here as he was 0-3 in regular-season finales with the division title at stake. Kyle Orton has had his share of success in the NFL, and he has an excellent opportunity to succeed here against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 30th in the league against the pass. Playing against road favorites that average 27 or more ppg has resulted in a 37-15 ATS record since 1983 if they led in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. Dallas has had Philly's number, winning each of the last three meetings. Pound the Cowboys.
|12-29-13||Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +13||34-14||Loss||-115||47 h 60 m||Show|
4* Major AFC West *DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR* on Raiders +13
Bottom Line: December home underdogs or pickems are 94-53 ATS since 1983 provided they enter off 2 or more consecutive ATS losses. Playing against any team after a win by 14 or more points that is up against an opponent off 2 straight losses by 10 or more points has resulted in a 33-12 ATS record the last 10 seasons.
|12-29-13||Baltimore Ravens +6.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals||17-34||Loss||-100||44 h 36 m||Show|
4* Major AFC North *DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR* on Ravens +6.5
Bottom Line: Don't count Baltimore out following last week's ugly loss to New England. The Ravens are 4-0 under coach John Harbaugh following a defeat of 20 points or more. The Ravens are also 7-0 ATS under their current coach after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. They have won these 7 contests by an average of 19.4 points. Lastly, the Ravens are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
|12-28-13||Michigan +6 v. Kansas State||Top||14-31||Loss||-110||32 h 10 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl *BEST BET* on Michigan +6
Bottom Line: Michigan underachieved this season given the huge amount of talent it possesses. Even if QB Devin Gardner doesn't go, the Wolverines have more than enough talent remaining to take down the Wildcats. Kansas State hasn't been a good investment this time of year. It is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 bowl games. So much of K-State success depends on winning the turnover battle. In fact, the Wildcats were 1-5 when forcing just 1 turnover this season and 6-0 when forcing 2 or more. They'll have a hard time getting Michigan to cough it up. The Wolverines have had 1 turnover or fewer in each of their last 5 games. Pound Michigan.
|12-28-13||Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville||9-36||Loss||-105||29 h 40 m||Show|
4* Major Russell Athletic Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on Miami +3.5
Bottom Line: One thing you don't want to do is count out a team coached by Al Golden. Teams he's headed up are a sweet 34-18 ATS in the underdog role. Since he's been at Miami the Hurricanes have been a nice investment against good offensive teams like Louisville that average 5.9 or more yards per play, going 8-1 ATS versus such opponents and losing to them by only 0.1 points on average. Additionally, the Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win while the Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Bet Miami.
|12-27-13||Washington v. BYU +3.5||31-16||Loss||-110||11 h 26 m||Show|
4* Major Fight Hunger Bowl Bailout on BYU +3.5
Bottom Line: You don't want to bet against Bronco Mendenhall this time of year. His BYU teams are a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS in bowl games the last 4 years, winning them by 18.0 points on average. The Cougars are also on an impressive 9-1 ATS run when catching points. Bet BYU.
|12-27-13||Syracuse +5 v. Minnesota||Top||21-17||Win||100||8 h 57 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy Texas Bowl *BEST BET* on Syracuse +5
Bottom Line: This line smells fishy. Minnesota won last season's meeting by 7 points and returns 16 starters from that team yet it is only laying 5 points here? Furthermore, Minnesota defeated Northwestern and Penn State this season while Syracuse lost to both. The books are expecting bettors to look at these two things and jump on the Gophers, but I'm not going to bite. Syracuse can flat out run the football, and that doesn't bode well for a Minnesota defense that was gashed time and time again by the run down the stretch. Minnesota relies heavily on its running game, but the Orange have the better run-stuffing defense. They rank 27th in the nation with 138.4 rushing yards allowed per game. The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Take the points.
|12-26-13||Utah State +2 v. Northern Illinois||Top||21-14||Win||100||60 h 56 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy Poinsettia Bowl *PUNISHER* on Utah State +2
Bottom Line: Utah State has quietly been one of the best investments in college football, going 19-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons. It saw a 5-game win streak come to an end with a loss at Fresno State in its last game, but that actually plays in our favor. Consider that the Aggies are 7-0 ATS in road/neutral field games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 18.5 points in these contests. Utah State's success has stemmed from a defense than ranks 7th in the nation in points allowed per game (17.3), 12th in total yards allowed per game (332.2) and 10th in rushing yards allowed per game (107.4). Northern Illinois is very reliant on its running game, which hurts its chances against a very good run-stuffing defense. The Aggies are 8-1 ATS the last 2 seasons versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 yards/play or more. The Huskies are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games. This bowl game is a major letdown for NIU, which had its sights set on a second-straight BCS bowl. Utah State, on the other hand, is very excited to be here after playing in the Idaho Potato Bowl in their last two bowl trips. Pound Utah State.
|12-24-13||Oregon State v. Boise State +3.5||38-23||Loss||-110||28 h 33 m||Show|
4* Major Hawaii Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on Boise State +3.5
Bottom Line: Boise State has been terrific this time of year. The Broncos have won their last four bowl games. They have won or lost by fewer than 3.5 points in each of their last 7 bowls, creating a perfect 7-0 bowl trend in our favor. Their last two bowl wins have come against Pac-12 school Washington and Arizona State so I feel very comfortable grabbing the points with the Broncos. Both teams struggle defensively, but Boise State has the edge because it has better balance on offense. Oregon State has no running game, which is significant because the Broncos are on a 9-1 ATS run versus teams that average 3.25 yards or less per carry. Also, Boise State is on a 17-5 ATS run when playing away from the blue turf against poor defensive teams that give up 5.9 yards or more per play. The Broncos are also on an impressive 20-4 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games.
|12-23-13||Atlanta Falcons +14.5 v. San Francisco 49ers||Top||24-34||Win||100||10 h 14 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Falcons +14.5
Bottom Line: The 49ers can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight, but Atlanta isn't about to roll over. The Falcons were stunned in last season's NFC title game, blowing a 17-0 lead to the 49ers. That loss haunted this team all off season, and it will motivate Atlanta tonight. Atlanta may not have been impressive in last week's win over Washington, but it is on a 10-2 ATS run in road games after being outgained by 200 or more total yards. Plus, playing against home favorites of 10.5 or more points that have covered the number in 2 of their last 3 has resulted in a 56-24 ATS record since 1983 if they are a good team (60-75% win pct) playing a team with a losing record. Pound Atlanta.
|12-23-13||Ohio v. East Carolina -14.5||20-37||Win||100||4 h 10 m||Show|
4* Major Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl *BLOOD BATH* on East Carolina -14.5
Bottom Line: The Pirates have a sour taste in their mouth after a very disappointing performance at Marshall in their last game. That loss will have them motivated to finish the season strong. The Pirates are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss. East Carolina is on a 7-0 ATS run after a loss by 17 or more points and on a 6-0 ATS run off a road loss. Ohio is 0-7 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons, 0-8 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons and 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Pirates.
|12-22-13||Chicago Bears +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles||11-54||Loss||-103||55 h 27 m||Show|
4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bears +3
Bottom Line: I'll take the points with the Bears because they likely need to win out to win the NFC North. The Lions have an excellent chance to win out with games against the Giants and Vikings to finish the season and Chicago can't afford to slip up because Detroit owns the tiebreaker. I'm confident the Lions will find a way to beat the Giants, which means the Bears need to take care of business to hold the position of controlling their own destiny. Philly can win the NFC East by beating the Bears if Dallas loses its earlier game against the Redskins. If Dallas beats Washington, the Eagles will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand knowing their playoff fate comes down to a Week 17 showdown at Dallas. If Detroit loses and Green Bay wins, the Bears would need to beat the Packers in Week 17 to reach the playoffs. Regardless if this game can decide anything for either team, the Bears are the play because of their passing game with Cutler or McCown. The Eagles are terrible against the pass, going 0-7 ATS at home the last 2 seasons versus teams that complete 61% or more of their pass attempts. Philly is also 0-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS in home games off an upset loss over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 home games overall. Chicago has the slightly better defense with or without Lance Briggs, who is listed as probable. Bet the Bears.
|12-22-13||New England Patriots +2.5 v. Baltimore Ravens||Top||41-7||Win||100||52 h 42 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy NFL Game of the Week on Patriots +2.5
Bottom Line: I like New England to win this game. The Patriots have been awesome in bounce-back spots, going 33-5 in their last 38 following a defeat, including 6-0 in their last 6. They are a lethal 15-5 ATS under Belichick following a close loss of 6 points or less. They have responded to win by an average of 12.4 points in this spot. The Patriots lost both meetings to Baltimore last season. One of those cost Tom Brady and company a trip to the Super Bowl so this is a game New England wants desperately. The regular-season loss came by a single point and the Pats have won or lost by fewer than 2.5 points in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Pound New England.
|12-22-13||Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 v. St. Louis Rams||13-23||Loss||-110||48 h 55 m||Show|
4* Major Early *BEST BET* on Bucs +5
Bottom Line: St. Louis has struggled to defend the pass, and that will give Tampa Bay an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number. The Bucs are on a 13-4 ATS run in road games in the second half of the schedule versus teams allowing an average of 7.0 yards or more per pass. Head coach Jeff Fisher prefers to play close to the vest. Because of his mentality, his teams are only 29-47 ATS lifetime when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.
|12-21-13||UL-Lafayette +2.5 v. Tulane||24-21||Win||100||30 h 5 m||Show|
4* Major New Orleans Bowl *PRIME TIME PUNISHER* on Louisiana-Lafayette +2.5
Bottom Line: Tulane is favored because it is at home, but that it isn't a good enough reason against the Ragin' Cajuns. Tulane hasn't been to a bowl since 2002 while Lafayette has won this bowl game each of the past two seasons. It's clearly very comfortable in the Superdome. Lafayette smoked Tulane 41-13 last season. I see this one being closer, but the Ragin' Cajuns still have the edge because they average over 120 more yards per game than Tulane. The Ragin' Cajuns have been up to the challenge against good competition outside Cajun Field. They are 7-0 ATS in road/neutral field games versus teams that sport a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
|12-21-13||USC v. Fresno State +7||Top||45-20||Loss||-125||24 h 25 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy Las Vegas Bowl *BEST BET* on Fresno State +7
Bottom Line: Oddsmakers adjusted their lines after USC's slow start, and there was some value in the Trojans during a 4-week stretch from late October to mid-November. USC got on a win streak and oddsmakers were forced to adjust their lines again. Now, they're back to setting inflated lines for the Trojans like they normally do. Consider that USC is 0-7 ATS when playing away from Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum after failing to cover the spread in 2 of its last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. It has lost by an average of 4.6 points in this situation. This is a particularly tough spot for the Trojans because of the coaching change they've had to deal with. Fresno State had hopes of being a BCS buster but won't lay down for mighty USC. Plus, Derek Carr might be the best QB in the country. Take the points.
|12-16-13||Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions -6.5||Top||18-16||Loss||-108||10 h 14 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Lions -6.5
Bottom Line: The Detroit offense has been unstoppable at Ford Field where it is averaging 477.0 yards and 31.7 points per game. It should be able to move the football almost at will against a Baltimore defense that has struggled on the road. The Ravens are 1-5 on the road, largely because the defense is allowing 26.8 ppg on the highway. The defense isn't solely to blame as it has had to spend way too much time on the field because of an offense that is among the worst in the NFL. Baltimore's only hope is to come up with some takeaways, but it has been among the least opportunistic teams in the AFC all season. The Detroit offense couldn't do much of anything in Philly last week in harsh conditions. However, the Lions are on a 25-6 ATS run after being held to 4.0 yards or less per play in their previous game. Pound the Lions.
|12-15-13||Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3||20-30||Win||100||79 h 49 m||Show|
4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Steelers +3
Bottom Line: The Bengals haven't had near the success on the road where they are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8. The Bengals have also been a poor investment in division play at 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 versus the AFC North. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC North and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 versus the Bengals. Roethlisberger is playing well, completing 63.0 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last 4 games, and he has a great track record versus Cincy (14-6 lifetime). Cincy has defeated the Steelers by more than 3 points just twice in the last 14 meetings. That's a 12-2 trend leaving no doubt we're on the right side. Bet the Steelers.
|12-15-13||New Orleans Saints v. St. Louis Rams +7||16-27||Win||100||75 h 43 m||Show|
4* Major NFL *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Rams +7
Bottom Line: New Orleans isn't the same team on the road, period. I know this game will be in a dome, but the Saints struggled to win at the Georgia Dome Nov. 21 and also lost by double-digits as a 13.5-point favorite the last time they visited the Edward Jones Dome. The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. The Rams are 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams that outscore opponents by an average of 6.0 points or more per game over the last 3 seasons. St. Louis is also 7-0 ATS in the second half of the season under Fisher versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 yards per play or more. Additionally, playing against favorites off a win of 14 or more points against an opponent off 2 straight losses of 10 or more points has resulted in a 26-9 ATS record the last 10 seasons.
|12-15-13||Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +5.5||56-31||Loss||-110||74 h 24 m||Show|
4* Major AFC West *DIVISIONAL DOMINATOR* on Raiders +5.5
Bottom Line: Playing underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that trailed by 14 points or more at halftime of their last game has resulted in a 29-10 ATS record since 1983 if they're up against a team that has scored 25 points or more in 3 straight games. Teams fitting this scenario have been underdogs of 6.7 points on average but have lost by only 2.2 points on average. This system tightens up to 8-2 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC West while the Raiders are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the AFC West. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the dog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 matchups.
|12-15-13||Buffalo Bills -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars||Top||27-20||Win||100||71 h 18 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Bills -1
Bottom Line: Buffalo defeated Jacksonville 34-18 last season while outgaining the Jaguars 344-236. I fully expect the Bills to dominate again in what is a highly-motivated spot. Buffalo held a closed-door meeting following last week's ugly loss at Tampa Bay. That means this team is serious about finishing the season strong. Buffalo has shown what it is capable of with nice wins over the Panthers, Ravens and Dolphins - teams with winning records. The Bills also nearly pulled off wins against the Patriots and Bengals and outgained the Chiefs 470-210. The Bills have been a tremendous investment when coming off a road loss, going 9-1 ATS in this situation the last 2 seasons. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Playing road teams after the first month of the season if the line is +3 to -3 and they are off a road defeat has resulted in a 70-36 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Pound Buffalo.
|12-14-13||Army +13 v. Navy||Top||7-34||Loss||-104||72 h 48 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy NCAAF *PUNISHER* on Army +13
Bottom Line: The Midshipmen have been a poor late-season investment at 0-4 ATS in their last 4 December contests. They have also been a poor play following a bye at 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Army is one of the top rushing teams in the nation. Because of the respect Navy must give to the run, it will be left susceptible to a big play or two through the air. The Midshipmen are 0-6 ATS lifetime under coach Niumatalolo when playing away from home after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game. The Middies are also 3-11 ATS under Niumatalolo after 2 or more consecutive covers. Army is 8-1 ATS under Ellerson after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and 10-2 ATS under his watch after allowing 42 points or more last game. Pound Army.
|12-12-13||San Diego Chargers +10.5 v. Denver Broncos||Top||27-20||Win||100||30 h 49 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Chargers +10.5
Bottom Line: San Diego played Denver to an 8-point game in the first meeting despite getting off to a terrible start. It was able to come back behind a defense that held the Broncos to a season-low 397 yards and an offense that ranks 4th in the league. In a game San Diego absolutely must have to hang on to its slim postseason hopes, I expect it to give the Broncos a game. Denver is on a 5-15 ATS skid after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games. The Broncos are also on a 9-22 ATS skid when playing against teams with a win percentage of 40-49%. They are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games in the second half of the season versus teams that complete 64% or more of their passes. The road team is on a 5-0-1 ATS run, and the Chargers are 5-0-4 ATS in the last 9 matchups in Denver. Pound San Diego.
|12-09-13||Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears +1.5||Top||28-45||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bears +1.5
Bottom Line: Playing December home underdogs or pickems that are off 2 or more consecutive losses ATS has resulted in a 93-52 ATS record since 1983. Additionally, playing all teams (Chicago) when the line is +3 to -3 that average 5.7 yards or more per play has resulted in a 55-28 ATS record the last 10 seasons if they have allowed an average of 400.0 yards or more in their last 3 games. The Cowboys have struggled late in the season, going 11-15 in Romo's December starts. They are also just 6-16 ATS in games played in the second half of the schedule over the last 3 seasons, including 0-7 ATS during this stretch when matched up against an excellent offensive team that averages 375 or more yards per game. Dallas is only 9-20 ATS when laying points under Garrett. Pound Chicago.
|12-08-13||Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3||13-31||Win||100||79 h 55 m||Show|
4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Saints -3
Bottom Line: Look for New Orleans to bounce-back strong at home where they are on an 18-5 ATS run. The Saints haven't lost consecutive games in a single regular season under coach Sean Payton since 2009, and they are 8-1 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 21.4 points in this spot.
|12-08-13||Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2.5||17-19||Loss||-115||75 h 50 m||Show|
4* Major Late Afternoon *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on 49ers -2.5
Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from the Seahawks following their huge MNF victory over the Saints. Seattle is on a 3-12 ATS slide in road games after a win by 21 or more points, losing by an average of 5.4 points in these games. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
|12-08-13||NY Giants v. San Diego Chargers -3||14-37||Win||100||75 h 43 m||Show|
4* Major Late Afternoon *SUREFIRE* on Chargers -3
Bottom Line: The Chargers have dropped 4 of 5 but have been on the road 3 times during this stretch and have played some good football teams (Denver, KC, Cincy). They'll rebound here against a Giants squad that has dropped 4 of 6 on the road. The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss.
|12-08-13||Indianapolis Colts v. Cincinnati Bengals -6||Top||28-42||Win||100||71 h 22 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy NFL Double Digit Blood Bath Game of the Year on Bengals -6
Bottom Line: Cincy rolls at home against the struggling Colts. Indy is not the same team that has wins over the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos. It is 3-2 over its last 5 games but could have been 0-5 during this stretch despite playing just 1 team that currently has a winning record. It hasn't been able to protect Luck, and the constant pressure has taken a toll as he has two touchdowns, five interceptions and a 66.7 passer rating over his last four contests. He's been sacked 29 times this season and was dropped a season-worst five times last week. He will face more pressure here against a Cincy team that has recorded 18 sacks over its last five games. The Bengals are 5-0 SU and ATS at home this season, winning these games by an average of 16.4 points. Pound Cincy.
|12-07-13||Stanford v. Arizona State -3||38-14||Loss||-105||51 h 26 m||Show|
4* Major Pac-12 Championship *PUNISHER* on Arizona State -3
Bottom Line: I like ASU to avenge an early season loss at Stanford. The Sun Devils are 7-0 at home this season, and teams that are led by coach Todd Graham are 25-11 ATS when playing with revenge. The Sun Devils are also a tremendous 14-5 ATS as chalk under Graham.
|12-07-13||Missouri +2.5 v. Auburn||Top||42-59||Loss||-110||49 h 10 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy Conference Championship Game of the Year on Mizzou +2.5
Bottom Line: The old saying "it's better to be lucky than good" certainly applies to Auburn, which followed up its "Immaculate Deflection" victory over Georgia with a miracle win over two-time defending national champion Alabama. However, I believe Auburn's luck finally runs out here. Mizzou is one of the best run-stuffing teams in the country. It will dare Auburn to pass the football, and I don't see Auburn being good enough through the air to win this game. Another big key is how well Missouri takes care of the football. It has just 12 turnovers all season and is 8-0 ATS this season after a game where it committed 1 or less turnovers. Pound Mizzou.
|12-07-13||Marshall v. Rice +6.5||24-41||Win||100||43 h 27 m||Show|
4* Major C-USA Championship *BLOOD BATH* on Rice +6.5
Bottom Line: Big advantage for Rice playing this game at home where it is 7-0 ATS under coach Bailiff versus good offensive teams that average 31.0 or more points per game. The Owls have defeated these teams by an average of 9.1 points. Rice is also on an 11-0 ATS run at home versus excellent passing teams like Marshall that average 275.0 or more passing yards per game. It has defeated these teams by 7.4 points on average.
|12-06-13||Bowling Green +5 v. Northern Illinois||Top||47-27||Win||100||31 h 10 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Bowling Green +5
Bottom Line: I'll grab the points with Bowling Green as it has an excellent chance to win this game outright behind a stop unit that ranks 5th in the country in points allowed per game. Last week, Bowling Green held Buffalo to just 7 points on the road. Dave Clawson's Bowling Green teams have been fueled by such dominant defensive performances, going 9-1 ATS following a game where they held their opponent to 9 points or fewer. This trend tightens up to a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. Pound BG.
|12-05-13||Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5||Top||20-27||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Jaguars +3.5
Bottom Line: I was on the Texans last week as they covered a big spread in New England while giving the Patriots all they wanted and more. That tough loss sets them up for letdown here, playing on the road in a very short week. The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a game in which they covered the spread. Houston has consistently played to the level of its competition under Kubiak, going 1-9 ATS in games played in the second half of the schedule versus poor defensive teams that give up 27 points or more per game. They have lost to these teams by 2.3 points on average. Pound the Jags.
|12-05-13||Louisville v. Cincinnati +3.5||31-24||Loss||-115||9 h 39 m||Show|
4* Major AAC *SUREFIRE* on Cincy +3.5
Bottom Line: I'll take the points with Cincy at home as it is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings with the loss coming by only 3 points in OT at Louisville last season. That defeat will provide the Bearcats with plenty of motivation on senior night. The Cardinals are on a 0-4 ATS slide versus winning teams. The Bearcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, and they are on a 34-13 ATS run versus good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 10.0 points or more per game.
|12-02-13||New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -4.5||Top||7-34||Win||100||10 h 18 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy MNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Seahawks -4.5
Bottom Line: Seattle ranks No. 2 in the NFL in both total and scoring defense as well as No. 1 against the pass. With this defense, it has dominated good offensive teams like New Orleans, especially in the latter part of the season. The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in the second half of their schedule over the last 3 seasons versus teams that average 24.0 points or more per game. They have crushed these teams by an average of 11.5 points. Seattle is also 6-0 ATS in the second half of its schedule the last 3 seasons versus teams that average 5.65 yards or more per play. It has blasted these teams by an average of 18.4 points. Seattle is 6-0 ATS in the second half of its schedule the last 2 seasons versus teams that complete 61% or more of their passes (17.2-pt avg. margin of victory in these games) and 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams averaging 7.0 yards per pass or more (5.8-pt avg. winning margin in these games). The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in home games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Last but not least, Seattle is 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 26.7 points in these games. Pound Seattle.
|12-01-13||NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +1.5||24-17||Loss||-110||31 h 1 m||Show|
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Redskins +1.5
Bottom Line: Tom Coughlin's NFL teams are just 3-12 ATS lifetime following an upset loss at home to a divisional opponent. The Giants are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games, and they've struggled against Washington. The Redskins are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings, winning 3 of these straight up as an underdog.
|12-01-13||New England Patriots v. Houston Texans +9||Top||34-31||Win||100||46 h 31 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy NFL Letdown Game of the Year on Texans +9
Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot if I've ever seen one for the Patriots as they hit the road, where they are 0-3 in their last 3, after an improbable comeback win against Denver. Playing against any team with a winning record that is off an upset victory at home has resulted in a 149-78 (65.6%) ATS record the last 30 seasons. This system is 6-1 ATS this season. Additionally, playing underdogs of pickems in the second half of the season that are riding a losing streak of 6 games or more has resulted in a 122-71 (63.2%) ATS record the last 30 seasons. This system is 4-0 ATS this season. Pound Houston.
|11-30-13||Clemson +3 v. South Carolina||Top||17-31||Loss||-102||9 h 2 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy NCAAF Rivalry Game of the Year on Clemson +3
Bottom Line: Clemson will want this game just a little bit more as it sets out to snap a 4-game losing streak in the series. Clemson is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game over the last 2 seasons. It is also 8-0 ATS after 3 consecutive games where it committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Playing road teams when the line is +3 to -3 seven games or more into the season has resulted in a 50-15 ATS mark the last 10 seasons if they are an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 ypc) going against an average run defense (3.5 to 4.3 ypc allowed. This system is 4-0 ATS on the season. Pound the Tigers.
|11-30-13||Boston College v. Syracuse +3||31-34||Win||100||5 h 22 m||Show|
4* Major ACC Game of the Week on Syracuse +3
Bottom Line: Playing against a road team in a game involving two average defenses that allow 21-28 ppg following a win of 6 points or less has resulted in a 57-26 ATS record the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to 21-8 ATS the last 3 seasons. Additionally, BC is 2-9 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons, losing them by an average of 13.8 points.
|11-30-13||Baylor v. TCU +15||41-38||Win||100||5 h 21 m||Show|
4* Major Big 12 Game of the Week on TCU +15
Bottom Line: While Baylor has said it still has a lot to play for, I'm not buying that sentiment. This team had its dreams crushed last week at Oklahoma State and now it faces a TCU squad that has had an extra week to prepare. TCU isn't going bowling so it will treat this game as its bowl. TCU is 8-0 ATS in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest under coach Patterson.
|11-29-13||Washington State v. Washington -16.5||Top||17-27||Loss||-110||7 h 4 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy NCAAF *FRIDAY FEAST* on Washington -16.5
Bottom Line: I expect Washington to dominate this game with its 15th-ranked rushing attack. Playing home favorites that average 4.8 yards per carry or more against a conference opponent that averages just 3-3.5 ypc has resulted in a 42-18 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this scenario have won by 22.9 points on average. The Huskies had won 3 straight in the series before last season's upset loss with 2 of the wins coming by 17 and 30 points. The Huskies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound Washington.
|11-28-13||Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5||20-22||Loss||-120||31 h 13 m||Show|
4* Major NFL *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Ravens -2.5
Bottom Line: Playing against road underdogs or pickems that are off an upset win of 14 points or more has resulted in a 121-71 ATS record the last 30 seasons. Additionally, playing against road teams after the first month of the season when the line is +3 to -3 that are off an upset win of 10 points or more has resulted in a 48-22 ATS record the last 30 seasons. The Steelers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
|11-28-13||Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Dallas Cowboys||Top||24-31||Win||100||27 h 13 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy Thanksgiving *BEST BET* on Raiders +9.5
Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites of 3.5-10 points has resulted in an impressive 70-35 ATS record the last 30 seasons if they have won 2 of their last 3 games, carry a win percentage of 51%-60% and are playing a team that has a losing record. Teams fitting this situation have been favored by 7 points on average but have won by only 4.5 points on average. The Cowboys are a pathetic 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road record. Pound the Raiders.
|11-28-13||Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions -6||10-40||Win||100||23 h 13 m||Show|
4* Major Divisional Dominator on Lions -6
Bottom Line: Playing home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an upset loss and out for revenge for a loss to the team they're facing has resulted in a 63-28 ATS record the last 30 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.4 points and have won by an average of 12.1. This system is an almost-flawless 11-1 ATS the last 5 seasons.
|11-26-13||Western Michigan +36.5 v. Northern Illinois||Top||14-33||Win||100||7 h 47 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy *MAC MASSACRE* on Western Michigan +36.5
Bottom Line: Off last week's big win at Toledo, which clinched a spot in the MAC championship game, Northern Illinois will have a hard time focusing on the task at hand, a meeting with the lowly Western Michigan Broncos. While they have incentive to win impressively as they try to become a BCS buster for a second consecutive season, they'll have a difficult time covering this hefty number because they'll get Western Michigan's best effort tonight. This is the Broncos last game of the season and they have had nine days to prepare for it. They will treat it as their Super Bowl. Western Mich is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games off 2 straight losses against conference rivals. NIU has won 4 straight in the series but none of the wins came by more than 35 points. Pound the Broncos.
|11-25-13||San Francisco 49ers v. Washington Redskins +6||Top||27-6||Loss||-110||10 h 27 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Redskins +6
Bottom Line: Odds makers are giving a 49ers team that ranks 29th in total offense too much respect on the road. Consider that playing against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season has resulted in a 65-31 ATS record the last 30 years if they carry a 51-60% win percentage, have covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 games and are playing a losing team. This system is a hot 12-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Additionally, playing against road favorites that have covered the number in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games has resulted in a 60-28 ATS record the last 30 years if they have a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a losing team. Washington is just 3-7 but has played 6 of those on the road where it has struggled. The Redskins are 6-2 in their last 8 regular-season home games, including 2-0 in their last 2. Pound the Redskins.
|11-24-13||Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +3||31-34||Win||100||79 h 35 m||Show|
4* Major SNF *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Patriots +3
Bottom Line: In the battle between Brady and Manning, I'm not hesitating to go with Brady at home catching points. Brady is 9-4 all-time versus Manning, including 7-2 at home. The Pats are on a 20-8 ATS run as a home underdog. Plus, they are 15-6 ATS versus teams that average 29.0 points or more and 17-8 ATS in the second half of the season versus teams with a winning percentage above 75% under Belichick.
|11-24-13||Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -1||11-40||Win||100||74 h 10 m||Show|
4* Major Late Afternoon *MARQUEE MATCHUP* on Cardinals -1
Bottom Line: Indy is extremely lucky to be 2-1 and not 0-3 in its last 3 games as it had to overcome a 24-6 deficit against the Texans and a 17-3 deficit against the Titans. It was smacked 38-8 by the Rams in the other game. Arizona has quality home wins over Detroit and Carolina and is 4-1 at home overall. It should continue its strong play at home with the knowledge Bruce Arians has of Indy's personnel and its tendencies. The defensive side of the ball has been a major issue for the Colts as they are giving up 6.1 yards per play. The Cards are 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons in games played in the second half of the schedule versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 yards per play or more. Zona has won by an average of 8.3 points in this spot.
|11-24-13||Carolina Panthers v. Miami Dolphins +4.5||Top||20-16||Win||100||71 h 6 m||Show|
5* Wiseguy NFL Public Massacre Game of the Month on Dolphins +4.5
Bottom Line: Carolina is riding a 6-game SU and ATS streak with big wins over San Francisco and New England in its last 2. And, it is up against a team that is dealing with off-the-field issues. Naturally, the money is rolling in on the Panthers (85% of the money at the time of this report), and I expect it to continue to come in on them as TV analysts hype Carolina as a Super Bowl contender. Cam Newton and company are hearing about how great they are, which makes it difficult to maintain a chip. Miami is the team with more to prove right now as it has an opportunity to persevere in the face of controversy. The Dolphins did just that last week with a win over San Diego, and they'll be lacking no motivation here as they are tied with the New York Jets for the AFC's second wild-card spot. I like Miami in this spot regardless, but it bolsters its chances of an outright win with Carolina defensive end Charles Johnson expected to miss the game. He is tied for ninth in the league with 8 1/2 sacks. No team has won by more than a field goal in Miami in their last 7 tries. Plus, the Phins are 6-0 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 13.2 points in this spot. Pound Miami.
|11-24-13||Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns -1||27-11||Loss||-110||71 h 6 m||Show|
4* Major Divisional Dominator on Browns -1
Bottom Line: Pittsburgh has won 2 in a row, but both were at home. I expect a different story as it ventures out on the road where it is just 4-13 ATS versus AFC opponents the last 3 seasons, losing these games by 3.6 points on average. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Cleveland. They fell 20-14 in their most recent trip to Cleveland, and I expect them to go down again as the offense struggles against the Browns' stingy 5th-ranked stop unit.
|11-24-13||San Diego Chargers +5.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs||41-38||Win||100||71 h 5 m||Show|
4* Major Divisional Dominator on Chargers +5.5
Bottom Line: The Chiefs are 9-1 but can't be trusted laying this many points against the Chargers. San Diego is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with the loss coming by only 3 points. Additionally, KC is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 5.6 points in this spot.
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