|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-01-17||Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 47||Top||35-28||Loss||-105||13 h 31 m||Show|
This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN/WESTERN MICHIGAN UNDER for our CFB Wednesday Total Dominator. The MAC continues its weeknight run on Wednesday with rivals Central and Western squaring off with the loser out of the MAC West race. We are expecting a grind it out type of game which is something this series has not seen over the years. The Broncos will be without quarterback Jon Wassink who broke his collarbone last game and they will be starting Reece Goddard who has thrown three career passes. To say they will be about ball control is an understatement as we will see a heavy dose of the run, even more than usual which burns clock. Western has rushed for 2,018 yards as a team, led by Jarvion Franklin's 80.2 ypg and seven total touchdowns. The Chippewas are coming off a 56-9 victory at Ball St. during which everything seemed to fall their way as they put up 256 yards rushing, a season high, and the defense held the Cardinals to 208 total yards, the season low for a Chippewas opponent. That defense will have to step up again and because of the quarterback change, they will have a better idea of what is coming. Western Michigan is allowing 385.6 ypg on defense with a lot of those yards coming early in the season. The Broncos have allowed an average of 15.8 ppg over their last five games in regulation as we threw out the overtime points in that crazy Buffalo game and we can expect this defense to come up strong against an inconsistent Central Michigan offense. While the Chippewas put up 56 points last week, they averaged 15 ppg in their previous five games. Central Michigan has gone under in 11 of its last 12 games against winning teams while the under is 5-1 in the Broncos last six games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* Under (305) Central Michigan Chippewas/(306) Western Michigan Broncos
|12-20-16||Memphis v. Western Kentucky OVER 79.5||Top||31-51||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
The scoreboard will be working on overload tonight in Boca Raton as two of the top offense square off. This is the highest total of all bowl games and for good reason as Western Kentucky is ranked No. 2 in scoring offense and No. 7 in total offense while Memphis is ranked No. 17 and No. 32 in those categories respectively. The defenses do not come close to those rankings so stopping the opposing offenses will be a challenge. Typically, we would look at the contrarian play here but digging deeper into the numbers show that the first over of the bowl season will hit. Western Kentucky has played only four games against teams ranked inside the top 50 in total offense and it was lit up by allowing an average of 45 ppg. Memphis meanwhile has faced five teams ranked No 50 or better in total offense and it allowed and even worse 48.4 ppg. These defenses are clearly skewed by the soft schedules they have faced so we see no reason that the offenses will be moving up and down the field all night. This is the highest total that each team has seen all season but the Hilltoppers and Tigers are a combined 5-0 to the over when the total was 70 or higher. Going back, the over is 12-3-1 in the Hilltoppers last 16 games against teams with a winning record while the over is 4-0 in the Tigers last four games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (215) Memphis Tigers/(216) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
|12-19-16||Central Michigan v. Tulsa OVER 69.5||Top||10-55||Loss||-105||5 h 9 m||Show|
Day one of bowl season had five games on Saturday with all five of those staying under the total, four of which stayed under by a touchdown or more. Now we get a matchup where we have strength on offense going up against the weakness on defense and this is the case on both sides which can translate to a lot of points. Tulsa brings in a very potent rushing attack as it averages 262.4 ypg on 5.1 ypc and it has outrushed all but three opponents this season. On the other side, Central Michigan has trouble stopping the run as it is allowing 161.3 ypg on 4.5 ypc so the Golden Hurricane should gash the Chippewas defense. The Central Michigan strength on offense is with its passing game behind quarterback Cooper Rush and while he tends to force throws at times, he has the ability to make big plays. Tulsa allows nearly 250 ypg through the air and has only seven interceptions so the Chippewas can stay in this game with their passing game should they trail by any significant amount. this Is the highest total that Central Michigan has seen but for good reason based on the matchup and for Tulsa, it has surpassed this number in seven of its last 10 games with two of those missing the over by just one point. 10* Over (213) Central Michigan Chippewas/(214) Tulsa Golden Hurricane
|10-27-16||Ohio v. Toledo OVER 58.5||Top||31-26||Loss||-105||10 h 5 m||Show|
After a crazy three-overtime game against Texas St. to open the season where 110 points were scored, Ohio has seen its last seven games stay under the total. A lot of that has had to do with the opposition and the matchups involved but that changes tonight. The defense has allowed 21 points or less four times but one of those came against Gardner Webb of the FCS while the other three came against offenses that are ranked No. 127, No. 117 and No. 104 in total offense and No. 123, No. 114 and No. 111 in scoring offense. Toledo is a little better than those squads as the Rockets are No. 7 in the nation in total offense and no. 13 in scoring offense. Toledo tied a season low with 31 points scored against Central Michigan last week and while its own defense has been pretty solid, it too has faced some weak offenses along the way. Throw away the three points allowed against Maine of the FCS and the Rockets have given up an average of 25.7 ppg. Two of the best defensive efforts came against Arkansas St. and Fresno St. and they are ranked No. 1245 and No. 121 respectively in scoring offense. Going back, Toledo is 12-1 to the over after having won four of its last five games while the over is 5-1 in the Bobcats last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. These teams have not met since 2010 which is not a good thing for the coaching staff to try and prepare defenses which gives the offense on both sides a clear advantage. 10* Over (103) Ohio Bobcats/(104) Toledo Rockets
|10-27-16||Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh UNDER 57.5||Top||39-36||Loss||-110||10 h 34 m||Show|
While we are going contrarian in the first total, we are going contrarian in this total as well. Because of these runs, this is where the value comes into play as linesmakers have to set the numbers based on those runs as the public is all over big streaks. Pittsburgh opened the season with a low scoring game against Villanova of the FCS but since then, the Panthers have gone over the total in six straight games. The offense has scored at least 36 points in every one of those games but the Panthers have faced off against some pathetic defenses along the way. The best stop unit they have faced was against Georgia Tech which is ranked No. 27 in total defense. The other five teams are ranked No. 53, No. 104, No. 61, No. 113 and No. 108. Virginia Tech comes into this game ranked No. 11 in total defense and no. 16 in scoring defense so Pittsburgh is going to be tested for sure. Pittsburgh relies heavily on the ground game and Virginia Tech is about as good as anybody in the country in stopping the run as the Hokies allow 103.6 ypg and 2.9 ypc. The Virginia Tech offense has played above average this season but it is skewed a bit based on the competition and venue. The Hokies have played only two road games and managed to score just 17 points against an awful Syracuse defense and 34 points against an average North Carolina defense in hurricane conditions. The Hokies have gone under in six straight ACC road games while the Panthers are 6-2 to the under in their last eight games following a bye week. 10* Under (107) Virginia Tech Hokies/(108) Pittsburgh Panthers
|10-15-16||Southern Miss v. LSU OVER 57||Top||10-45||Loss||-107||58 h 42 m||Show|
This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES/LSU TIGERS OVER for our Saturday Totals Dominator. This could be considered a contrarian totals play based on the fact that LSU has stayed under the total in each of its first five games this season and that is certainly part of it but additionally, the matchup calls for a quick paced game. The Golden Eagles are ranked No. 7 in the country in total offense with 531 ypg while averaging 318.7 passing ypg and 40.2 ppg. There were reports early in the week that Southern Mississippi senior quarterback Nick Mullens was uncertain about this game but he has been upgraded to probable so the offense should not miss a beat. The Tigers might have turned a corner in the first game under interim coach Ed Orgeron with 634 yards, a school record in SEC play, in a 42-7 win over Missouri. Both defenses are ranked pretty high as Southern Mississippi is No 16 while LSU is No. 21 but The Golden Eagles have played a very easy schedule while the Tigers have played no one with a pulse on offense. Southern Mississippi defensive coordinator Tony Pecoraro said the LSU offense may throw a few new wrinkles at them while offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson said he figures to see a base Tigers defense. LSU is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game while the over is 5-2 in the Golden Eagles last seven non-conference games. 10* Over (151) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles/(152) LSU Tigers
|10-05-16||Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State OVER 55||Top||26-27||Loss||-107||32 h 38 m||Show|
Two of the Sun Belt Conference favorites square off on Wednesday in what looks to be a very high scoring game. Georgia Southern is off to a 2-0 start in the conference with wins over South Alabama and UL-Monroe and both of those were very low scoring contests that stayed under the total by 24.5 points and 13 points respectively. Those came against two of the lowest scoring offenses in the country and while Arkansas St. has struggled on offense, it has gotten progressively better. The Red Wolves are 0-4 including an embarrassing loss last time out against Central Arkansas. This is their conference opener and while the offense has the ability to put up a good number of points, their defense has been real troublesome as they are allowing 36 ppg, which is ranked No. 107 in the country. Arkansas St. has struggled against the run especially and that is not a good sign against a powerful Eagles rushing attack. This is the lowest total Georgia Southern has seen this season and both teams have seen three of their four games stay under the number which sets up good value. We play the over where the total is between 49.5 and 56 involving teams that winless on the season and coming off a home loss. This situation is 46-17 (73 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Arkansas St. is 8-0 to the over in its last eight games against teams average 4.75 or more ypc while under head coach Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves are 14-1 to the over against conference opponents. 10* Over (301) Georgia Southern Eagles/(302) Arkansas St. Red Wolves
|09-09-16||Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 69.5||Top||62-28||Win||100||33 h 38 m||Show|
This total looks to be on the high side considering the meeting last year had the closing over/under at 50.5 but it has jumped up for a reason. After a second straight losing season, head coach Scott Shafer was let go at Syracuse and the school brought in Dino Babers from Bowling Green which looks to be a great hire to make some changes for the good. First and foremost, he brings in a fast paced offense, something that Syracuse has not implemented in quite some time. It was on display last week against Colgate as the Orange racked up 554 total yards and they should have put up more than 33 points but struggled a bit on third down. Granted, it was only Colgate but it was a very positive sign compared to last season when they managed only 426 yards in their opener against Rhode Island, a team that went 1-11 at the FCS level. They will be facing a tougher defense here for sure but moving the ball will not be an issue, especially at home where the Louisville defense will not have the crowd behind them. The Cardinals decimated Charlotte last Thursday 70-14 as they racked up 663 total yards and while they will not be matching those numbers this week, the offense will not be slowed down much. The Syracuse defense is at a disadvantage from a talent perspective, which does not help its case and side of the ball is expected to struggle all season. Both offenses play at a high pace with mobile quarterbacks so we should see some offensive fireworks come Friday night. 10* Over (303) Louisville Cardinals/(304) Syracuse Orange
|01-11-16||Alabama v. Clemson UNDER 51||Top||45-40||Loss||-102||148 h 24 m||Show|
The two semifinal playoff games went under the total which was due to the defenses not allowing hardly anything. While the offenses put up 37 and 38 points, those were against defenses that do not compare to what they will be facing here. Alabama comes in ranked 1st in scoring defense and 2nd in total defense while Clemson comes in ranked 16th in scoring defense and 6th in total defense and it needs to be noted that Oklahoma and Michigan St. did not rank inside the top 25 in either of those categories. I do expect Clemson to have more success on offense than Michigan St. did but the Tigers are not going to have a field day all night for sure. On the other side, Alabama will be facing a much quicker and more athletic defense and they will have their own troubles. Both teams fall into a great low scoring situation where we play the under for neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 1.2 or more yppl in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This situation is 32-8 (80 percent) to the under since 1992. Clemson is 12-3 to the under in its last 15 games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game while going 10-3 to the under in its last 13 games against winning teams. Meanwhile, Alabama is 33-14 in its last 47 games against teams averaging 200 or more rushing ypg. The teams combined to go 12-6 to the under when the total was between 40 and 55 this season and we can expect that to continue here. 10* Under (151) Alabama Crimson Tide/(152) Clemson Tigers
|01-01-16||Iowa v. Stanford UNDER 53.5||Top||16-45||Loss||-110||51 h 10 m||Show|
This game has the look and the feel of an ugly low scoring game which some people prefer. It looks pretty attractive to me considering this total is relatively high for this matchup and has actually gone up slightly since opening. The offenses have put up a ton of points this season on both sides but those came against some very poor defenses and mismatches. Iowa comes in with the 21st ranked total defense while Stanford comes in with the 46th ranked total defense. The Hawkeyes play a base defense and play it very well as they are in the top 25 nationally in rush defense, total defense and scoring defense. Going back, the Stanford offense struggles the majority of the time against Big Ten defenses. The Stanford defense is not as good but the Hawkeyes offense is not as good as the numbers it has put up as it has faced five defenses ranked 100th or worse. I don't see them having much success here. Both teams fall into two great under situations. First, we play the under involving two teams from major conferences on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. Second, we play the under where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better in major bowl games played in January. This situation is 52-20 (72.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (269) Iowa Hawkeyes/(270) Stanford Cardinal
|01-01-16||Notre Dame v. Ohio State OVER 56.5||Top||28-44||Win||100||47 h 6 m||Show|
Entering the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio St. comes in ranked 28th in scoring offense with 35.0 ppg while Notre Dame comes in 31st in scoring offense with 34.8 ppg. The defenses have been great on both sides, more so for the Buckeyes but this game has the feel that the offenses will be able to run the table. One big reason for this is the coaching as we have two great offensive minds and with so much time to prepare, it only adds to it. Starting with Notre Dame, its offensive balance (215.6 ypg rushing/256.3 ypg passing) has been an asset all season long and it can keep the Buckeyes defense off balance. One huge edge for the Fighting Irish offense is that Ohio St. is missing two senior starting defensive tackles as Tommy Schutt is out with an injury while Adolphus Washington has been suspended. Notre Dame running back could be back after missing the last game against Stanford which would be a big boost. On the other side, Ohio St. has been relying on the run but don't surprised to see Urban Meyer chance that here as air it our more as the injuries to the Notre Dame secondary makes it a huge weakness. While the Buckeyes have been a big under team this season, most of those took place at home and going back, they 8-1 to the over in their last nine games away from home against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg while going 11-2 to the over in their last 13 games with a total between 56.5 and 63. Meanwhile Notre Dame is 6-0 to the over in its last six games following an ATS loss. 10* Over (267) Notre Dame Fighting Irish/(268) Ohio St. Buckeyes
|12-31-15||Houston v. Florida State UNDER 55.5||Top||38-24||Loss||-104||47 h 39 m||Show|
Prior to the two playoff games New Year's Eve, we have a solid matchup in the afternoon featuring Houston against Florida St. The Cougars were looking to crash the party but a loss at Connecticut knocked them out of any chance to think about a playoff berth. Still, they got a solid bowl against a solid opponent and while their offense has been potent, they will have a tough time here. Florida St. comes in ranked 16th in the nation in total defense and 5th in scoring defense and Houston has struggled against good defenses. It was held to 17 points against Connecticut and 24 points against Temple and those defenses are ranked 16th and 17th in scoring defense respectively. The Seminoles aren't going to scare anyone with their offense as taking out games against Texas St. and Chattanooga where they scored 59 and 52 points, their scoring averages drops from 32.3 ppg to 27.7 ppg which would put it 74th in the country. Houston typically is known for playing poor defense but the Cougars are 53rd overall and a very solid 20th in scoring defense, allowing just 20.5 ppg. This was a good one to wait out as the total has risen a couple points from opening. Both teams fall into a great low scoring bowl situation as we play the under in bowl games between teams from major conferences with winning percentages of .800 or better where the total is between 49.5 and 56. This situation is 46-16 (74.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (257) Houston Cougars/(258) Florida St. Seminoles
|12-30-15||Louisville v. Texas A&M UNDER 47.5||Top||27-21||Loss||-105||53 h 28 m||Show|
This spread has shifted over a touchdown as Louisville has gone from a three-point underdog to a 4.5-point favorite which makes the side play unplayable at this point. The reason for the swing is because of Aggies quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray deciding to transfer out with Jake Hubenak taking over as the starter. While this hurts them to win and/or cover, it helps the under which has come down only three points. It is going to be difficult for the offense to get anything going as in his first season since transferring from Blinn College, Hubenak made four appearances and went 12 of 27 for 92 yards with one touchdown. Louisville played solid on defense this season and should prosper here. On the other side, the Aggies boasted a very strong defense as they finished 28th in points allowed and were exceptionally good against the pass, allowing just 161.2 ypg, good for 4th in the nation. They match up well here against a Louisville offense that did nothing from the start. The Cardinals problems stem from youth as the offense has used two true freshman tackles, a true freshman quarterback, three true freshman wide receivers, a redshirt freshman tight end and a redshirt freshman guard. It has been reported that during bowl practices, Louisville basically reinstalled its offense which is not a good sign for success. Louisville is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in its previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Aggies last eight games following a straight up loss. 10* Under (253) Louisville Cardinals/(254) Texas A&M Aggies
|12-30-15||NC State v. Mississippi State OVER 60||Top||28-51||Win||100||50 h 54 m||Show|
This bowl, going back to the days of the Continental Tire Bowl and the Meineke Car Care Bowl, has produced some high scoring games and I project another one this season in the fifth edition of the Belk Bowl. It has been a mixed bag of over/unders for both NC State and Mississippi St. but the matchup between the two should produce some big offensive numbers. We have two exceptional quarterbacks taking the field today as the Wolfpack's Jacoby Brissett threw for 2,448 yards with 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions while the Bulldogs Dak Prescott threw for 3,413 yards with 25 touchdowns and also just four interceptions. Overall, NC State has scored 34 or more points in eight of its 12 games and while the defense has put up some solid numbers, a lot of that is who it played against. When facing good offenses, the defense yielded 45, 34 and 56 points and the Bulldogs can take advantage as they fall into that category. Their defense is not nearly as good however, especially of late as Mississippi St. gave up 31, 50 and 38 points over its last three games. Prior to that, the Bulldogs played very poor offenses. We should see some big plays from both sides and because of that, this relatively smaller than expected total won't be an issue. The over is 11-3-1 in the Wolfpack's last 15 games following an ATS loss while the over is 4-0 in the Bulldogs last four games following a straight up loss. 10* Over (251) NC State Wolfpack/(252) Mississippi St. Bulldogs
|12-29-15||Air Force v. California OVER 67||Top||36-55||Win||100||27 h 37 m||Show|
There have been a large number of shootouts in the early bowl games and we should see another starting out on Tuesday. We have contrasting styles on offense going against each other here in the Armed Forces Bowl and both units have excellent matchups against the opposing defenses. California brings in the 9th ranked offense in the country including ranking fourth in passing offense and while the Air Force defense has been solid overall, the Falcons have struggled against the pass, allowing 8.4 ypa away from home and they haven't been overly tested in those games. The Golden Bears are ranked 110th in total yards including 104th in rushing defense so Air Force will have no issues moving the ball and that sets up the possibility of big plays through the air. While they do not throw it much, the Falcons are ranked 2nd in the nation in yards per completion at 21.23. California has allowed a gaudy 261 ypg on 5.7 ypc on the ground away from home this season so we should see some big plays. Air Force has been a big over team this season, surpassing the total in eight of 12 games. California has been a surprising under team this season based on the stats but the totals have been inflated in a lot of cases. The Golden Bears are 22-7-1 to the over in their last 30 non-conference games while the Falcons are 20-7 to the over in their last 27 games after covering the spread in three of their last four games. 10* Over (241) Air Force Falcons/(242) California Golden Bears
|12-28-15||Pittsburgh v. Navy UNDER 53.5||Top||28-44||Loss||-110||22 h 53 m||Show|
12 of the first 18 bowl games have gone over the total but we should start Monday with a low scoring game in the Military Bowl from Annapolis. We have a few factors on our side as both are slower paced teams and both prefer to run the ball more than they pass it. That is a pretty obvious statement for Navy but Pittsburgh is more of a running team as they rush it close to 60 percent of the time. It is important to keep the running game going which will give the Panthers an edge, or remaining close to even in time of possession so they do not wear down. Giving up only about 21.3 ppg, the Midshipmen rank 26th in the nation in scoring defense and Pittsburgh is not far back, allowing 24.6 ppg. Both teams fall into the same situation where we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are +/- 50 ypg in differential, in non-conference games. This situation is 44-14 (75.9 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. The teams are a combined 8-4 to the under when the total is between 48.5 and 55 while Navy is 25-8 to the under in its last 33 games against averaging 2 or more timer possession minutes while Pittsburgh is 27-11 to the under in its last 38 games away from home following a straight up loss. 10* Under (237) Pittsburgh Panthers/(238) Navy Midshipmen
|12-26-15||Connecticut v. Marshall UNDER 44.5||Top||10-16||Win||100||49 h 21 m||Show|
Seven of the first 10 bowl games going into Thursday have gone over the total but the first game on Saturday has the potential to be a snoozer. When you think Marshall, you typically think offense but that wasn't the case this season as the Thundering Herd averaged 401.3 ypg which was 64th in the nation and while they ranked 43rd in scoring offense, they will be tested here. Connecticut allowed just 352.3 ypg which was 34th in the nation and it allowed only 19.8 ppg, good for 16th lowest. The Huskies held some prolific scoring teams to season lows and we should see another strong effort here. On the other side, the Huskies averaged just 318.4 ypg and 17.8 ppg, 119th and 118th respectively in the country. They scored more than 20 points only three times and will face a Marshall defense that allowed just 372.3 ypg and 18.4 ppg, 47th and 13th respectively. That unit is good enough to keep Connecticut in check for sure. We are seeing a low total here but it is for good reason and should prove to not be low enough. Here, we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams (Connecticut) where the total is between 42.5 and 49 that are averaging between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 and 4.8 yppl, after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. This situation is 53-22 (70.7 percent) to the under since 1992. The under is 10-1 in the Huskies last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the Under is 6-0 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the under is 6-0 in the Thundering Herd's last six games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. 10* Under (225) Connecticut Huskies/(226) Marshall Thundering Herd
|12-24-15||Middle Tennessee State v. Western Michigan OVER 64.5||Top||31-45||Win||100||4 h 39 m||Show|
This has the potential to be one of the higher scoring games even though we have already seen our share of offensively dominated matchups. Middle Tennessee averages 458.7 ypg and 34.3 ppg which are 30th and 34th in the nation respectively and it is coming off a pair of high output games to close the season. The defense allowed just seven points in those games but they were against non-bowl teams and while the stop unit has allowed a respectable 25.1 ppg, the Blue Raiders have allowed 41 ppg against bowl teams. Western Michigan can certainly take advantage as it averages 480.9 ypg and 35.3 ppg, which are 22nd and 27th in the country respectively. They were held in check only a few times this season but those came against some elite defenses. The Broncos defense played poor down the stretch and overall they ranked 78th in total defense and 77th in scoring defense. The game features some of the top receivers in the country you have never heard of. Western Michigan's Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman have over 1,200 yards receiving each this season while Middle Tennessee's Richie James and Ed Batties have combined to catch 177 passes for 2,180 yards and 19 touchdowns this year. Middle Tennessee falls into a situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over in the second half of the season involving teams that average 440 ypg, after outgaining their opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 67-33 (67 percent) to the over since 1992. 10* Over (221) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders/(222) Western Michigan Broncos
|12-22-15||Akron v. Utah State UNDER 47.5||Top||23-21||Win||100||24 h 31 m||Show|
This total has come down slightly but we should be in for a pretty vanilla game from each offense which squares off against pretty solid defenses. Neither team has played a ton of potent offenses but both of these units fall into the same category of what they both faced this season. Akron is ranked 97th in total offense while Utah St. comes in only slightly better at 91st and as far as points, both are in the lower half as well. On the other side, the defenses are clearly the better units as the Zips are ranked 17th in total defense while the Aggies are 22nd which is the main reason this total is as low as it is. Akron linebacker Jatavis Brown led the MAC in sacks with 10.5 and tackles for loss with 17.5, while leading the team in tackles at 108. For Utah St., linebackers Kyler Fackrell and Nick Vigil both made first-team all-MWC, and Vigil leads the Aggies with 140 tackles and 12.5 tackles for loss. Utah St. quarterback Chuckie Keeton is back but he is far from the same start quality quarterback from a couple years ago. He came back for the final two games and once again looked really shaky down the stretch as was just 34-of-72 for 352 yards with only one touchdown and one interception. Akron has gone under in its last six non-conference games away from home while Utah St. has gone under in six of its last seven December games. 10* Under (213) Akron Zips/(214) Utah St. Aggies
|12-21-15||Western Kentucky v. South Florida OVER 65.5||Top||45-35||Win||100||100 h 2 m||Show|
This has the potential to be a shootout as these offenses are two that are capable of big plays. Combined, they average 77 ppg which shows the linesmakers are keen on these defenses and there is no reason to be. The offenses are both ranked in the top 40 in offensive efficiency and the end of the season saw even greater numbers. Western Kentucky has averaged 52.3 ppg over its last three games while South Florida has averaged 51 ppg over the same stretch with two of the three games for each team coming against other bowl teams. On the other side, the Hilltoppers are ranked 60th in total defense while the Bulls are 37th in total defense so while both are above average, neither are dominant enough to hold down the opposing offenses. This total is the second highest of the season for the Bulls but the last one easily went over and as for Western Kentucky, this is on the low side and for the season, the Hilltoppers have gone over the total in nine of 12 games when the over/under is 62 or higher. The good thing is that this is an early bowl game so there is not a ton of time off which can often hurt an offense. Western Kentucky is 13-4 to the over after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games while South Florida is 5-2 to the over after scoring 40 or more points. 10* Over (211) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers/(212) South Florida Bulls
|12-04-15||Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green UNDER 70||Top||14-34||Win||100||11 h 12 m||Show|
Northern Illinois and Bowling Green square off for the third straight season in Detroit for the MAC Championship. Things are different this time around as the Huskies were favored in both of the previous two meetings but now it is the Falcons that come in as a huge chalk tonight with the main reason being the Northern Illinois quarterback situation. Drew Hare is done for the season and Ryan Graham, who led them to that improbable win over Toledo and then led them to two more win, was hurt last week. Freshman Tommy Fielder is expected to start tonight and there is no doubt that a run heavy gameplan has been put into place. Bowling Green has a very potent offense behind quarterback Matt Johnson but the Huskies have a sneaky good defense that has done enough to have their last two games go under the number while allowing more than 30 points only once this season. Northern Illinois is 12-2 to the under as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points while Bowling Green is 6-0 to the under in its last six games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg and 14-4 to the under after covering as a double-digit favorite. Both teams fall into a great under situation as we play the under involving teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 and having two teams averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc. This situation is 46-18 (71.9 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (303) Northern Illinois Huskies/(304)Bowling Green Falcons
|11-21-15||Georgia Southern v. Georgia OVER 50.5||Top||17-23||Loss||-106||51 h 2 m||Show|
|11-14-15||Oregon State v. California OVER 59.5||Top||24-54||Win||100||58 h 21 m||Show|
We lost with the over in the California/Oregon game last week by three points as 72 points were scored in the game where the posted total closed at 75. We will come back with the over this week as the Golden Bears are on a 6-0 under streak but two things are in our favor here. A lot of those unders were close to going over and this is the lowest posted total over this stretch and at this number, half of those would have gone over. The offense is ranked 23rd in the nation and needs to get rolling again after a strong start but having a tough time scoring points the last few weeks. Of course, three of those games were on the road and the lone home game was against USC. We lost with Oregon St. last week as tit was dismantled at home against UCLA, its sixth straight loss. Backing them against to cover is not happening this week as the 92nd ranked defense faces another massive test but what makes the Beavers a good over bet here is that the offense will be facing the 110th ranked defense in the country. This after facing two tough defenses in the first two games without starting quarterback Seth Collins. While the Golden Bears are on an under run, the Beavers have gone under in three straight games but the over is 4-0 in the Beavers last four games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (195) Oregon St. Beavers/(196) California Golden Bears
|11-14-15||San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 52||Top||34-37||Win||100||52 h 53 m||Show|
San Jose St. hits the road following three straight home games and that is a big factor here in playing the over involving the Spartans. All three of those games went under the total as the defense was the difference and has been all season based on the venue. The Spartans are allowing 20.8 ppg in five home games but that average jumps to 33.5 ppg in four road games. The offense is ranked 73rd in the nation which is a little below average but they take on a very average Nevada defense that has overachieved the last six games. We say that because the teams they have faced over this stretch are ranked 121st, 122nd, 100th, 93rd, 64th and 81st so the numbers are definitely skewed. This of course has helped with all six of those games going below the total and this is despite the fact the Wolf Pack have scored 30 points or more in three of those six games. Because of that stretch, Nevada is seeing its lowest posted total of the season and while not by much, every little bit counts when it comes to these mid-range totals. This has historically been a low scoring series but again, this is the lowest number between these two teams since 2008. Going back, the over is 8-3 in the Spartans last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* Over (193) San Jose St. Spartans/(194) Nevada Wolf Pack
|11-14-15||Southern Miss v. Rice OVER 61||Top||65-10||Win||100||51 h 23 m||Show|
It has been quite a turnaround for Southern Mississippi as after winning four games combined the last three seasons, the Golden Eagles because bowl eligible two weeks ago with a win over UTEP. They have been doing it with defense by allowing just 33 points over the last three games combined but those came against teams ranked 95th or worst in total offense. As far as the offense goes, Southern Mississippi is ranked 13th in the country, averaging 507.7 ypg which is close to 150 ypg more than last season. They have been held to fewer than 28 points only twice all season and that offense should flourish once again here as Rice comes in with the 102nd ranked defense and has allowed an average of 38.5 ppg against FBS teams, taking out an 16-point effort against Wagner. The Owls are ranked a respectable 59th in total offense and the Owls have gone over the total in 17 of their last 23 games after consecutive ATS losses while Southern Mississippi falls into a great over situation. Here, we play the over where the total is between 56.5 and 63 involving teams after gaining 450 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 24-5 (82.8 percent) the last 10 seasons. Look for this one to fly over the number as the Golden Eagles snap their six-game under run. 10* Over (175) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles/(176) Rice Owls
|11-07-15||California v. Oregon OVER 75.5||Top||28-44||Loss||-106||55 h 40 m||Show|
While we are playing the over in the game with the lowest posted total of the day, we are also playing the over in the game with the third highest total of the day. We played the over in the California/USC game last week and the Golden Bears could not get an offensive rhythm going as the Trojans controlled the time of possession. That won't be the case this week as Oregon does not have close to the same defense as USC. The Ducks are ranked 116th in the nation in total defense and they allow 38.4 ppg which is 117th in the country. California's offense should wake up here after scoring 24 points or less the last three games, a number they surpassed in all five of their first games. While Oregon is struggling with a 5-3 record, the offense is still dynamic and is ranked 12th in total offense and 10th in scoring offense. Here, we play the over involving teams where the total is 70 points or higher coming off a win as an underdog from Week Ten on. The over is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last ten seasons. Additionally, Oregon is 7-0 to the over in its last seven home games following a Thursday game. 10* Over (401) California Golden Bears/(402) Oregon Ducks
|11-07-15||Arkansas v. Ole Miss OVER 54||Top||53-52||Win||100||48 h 40 m||Show|
The third over we are going with is a middle of the road number that is going against a recent team trend. After opening the season with three straight overs, Mississippi has gone under the total in its last six games. The defense has led the way but now the defense faces the best offense it has seen since facing Memphis where the Rebels allowed 37 points. Arkansas has gotten its offense in gear the last two games and now comes in ranked 33rd in the country in total offense and 50th in scoring offense. The Razorbacks defense has been gashed for 30.7 ppg over the last six games and while the Mississippi point totals have been average of late, which is a main reason for the under run, but on the season, the Rebels are averaging 519.6 ypg which is 11th highest in the nation. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as well as Mississippi was shutout in Arkansas last season 30-0 so they will have a lot to prove. The Rebels control their own destiny in the SEC West so they will be ready. Arkansas is 21-9 to the over in its last 30 road November games. 10* Over (409) Arkansas Razorbacks/(410) Mississippi Rebels
|11-07-15||Vanderbilt v. Florida OVER 36||Top||7-9||Loss||-109||44 h 11 m||Show|
This is the lowest total on the board for Saturday and we will take advantage of the number that the linesmakers were forced to post. The Commodores have failed to go above the total in any game this season and while they are coming off a game where they were shutout, that makes this a good spot for the offense to do at least a little something. This is the lowest total Florida has seen this season and it too has been on an under run, going below the total in three of its last four games. While the Gators will be facing a strong Vanderbilt defense, they are averaging 31 ppg this season and last week, the Commodores allowed a season-high 34 points against Houston. Despite the midseason quarterback change as a result of Will Grier's suspension for testing positive for a substance banned by the NCAA, the Gators quickly stabilized when Treon Harris took over. Of his 44 completions, 12 have gone for 20 or more yards (27.3 percent) and his big play ability is good for the offense. Florida has gone over the total in eight of its last 11 home games while going 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games after allowing 20 points or fewer. 10* Over (341) Vanderbilt Commodores/(342) Florida Gators
|11-06-15||Temple v. SMU OVER 54.5||Top||60-40||Win||100||57 h 41 m||Show|
Temple is coming off a very tough loss at home last Saturday night and that can lead to a letdown here. When teams fall into this situation, it tends to affect the defense more which I expect to happen here. Saturday night marked the first game Temple played in which both teams were ranked which also provides quite the letdown. The good news for the Owls is that they are facing a horrible team and the offense that has struggled the last couple games should be able to score at will. While the defense will not completely collapse, all we should need is a couple SMU scores to push this one over. The Mustangs have lost six straight games with the defense being the big culprit as they have allowed point totals of 56, 48, 49, 49, 38 and 40 points. Overall, SMU is ranked 120th in total defense and 123rd in scoring defense while Temple comes in 58th in scoring offense. Another factor that helps here is the pace of the game as the Mustangs have run 608 plays in just eight games and the 76 plays per game on offense are good for 29th most in the nation. The solidifier is the fact that each team has gone under the total in their last two games and that is providing some value. Temple is 10-1 to the over in its last 11 road games after allowing 6.75 yppl or more in their previous game while SMU is 6-0 to the over in its last six games coming off a home conference loss. 10* Over (319) Temple Owls/(320) SMU Mustangs
|11-05-15||Mississippi State v. Missouri OVER 42||Top||31-13||Win||100||36 h 8 m||Show|
Mississippi St. comes in a hefty road favorite in Missouri as it has rolled to three straight wins following a loss to Texas A&M while the tigers are riding a three games losing skid as the offense has been nowhere to be found. The Bulldogs hit the road for the first time in over a month but after scoring 45, 45 and 42 points their last three games, I expect that offense to keep chugging along despite playing a very tough defense in Missouri. The Tigers have gone under the total in all eight of their games this season thanks to a good defense and an offense that has shut down of late. They have scored just 12 points over their last three games but Missouri has faced three very strong defenses in those three games as the opposition was ranked 15th, 21st and 23rd while Mississippi St. comes in 53rd in total defense. That is a respectable ranking but the Bulldogs are far from dominant. We are getting a great number here to work with as this is about right on track with recent Missouri closing totals but this one is 10 points lower than the lowest over/under Mississippi St. has seen all season. That alone is worth the play here and the one team with the contrarian value, Missouri, is 9-1 to the over in its last 10 home games following a loss as a favorite while going 23-7 to the over in its last 30 games after two straight games of forcing one or fewer turnovers. It won't take a lot to push this one over the total. 10* Over (315) Mississippi St. Bulldogs/(316) Missouri Tigers
|11-03-15||Northern Illinois v. Toledo UNDER 61||Top||32-27||Win||100||10 h 16 m||Show|
When these two teams are brought up, the word shootout comes to mind and that has been the case recently for both. The Rockets have gone over the total in two straight games while the Huskies have gone over the total in three straight games. But when it comes to these two playing each other, it has been a lower scoring series with the under coming through in the last three meetings. Both teams do bring in highly potent offenses but they also come in with very underrated defenses and those are the units that should take greater control tonight. Toledo and Northern Illinois are ranked 51st and 52nd respectively in total defense and both the rushing and passing units are equally good. Offensively, they are not as similar but both want to be a run team and establishing the run will be the goal tonight. That is a clock eater and while both teams has been hitting with big plays, that likely will not happen tonight because of the strength of the defenses. Northern Illinois is 16-5 to the under in its last 21 games after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last three games while Toledo is 22-10 to the under against teams averaging 425 or more ypg. The situation and opponent also calls for a low scoring game as the under is 5-0 in the Huskies last five road games against teams with a winning home record and the under is 12-4 in the Rockets last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (301) Northern Illinois/(302) Toledo Rockets
|10-31-15||Vanderbilt v. Houston OVER 49||Top||0-34||Loss||-110||57 h 40 m||Show|
The Vanderbilt offense has been horrible of late but playing in the SEC can do that to teams. Now playing an out of conference game against a team with a weak defense can change that. The Commodores have scored a grand total of 53 points over their last four games and they have been terribly inefficient, ranking 115th nationally in turnovers and 126th in red-zone scoring. While not great numbers, they take on a Cougars defense that has been very inconsistent as well. They have allowed just 17 points the last two games but those came against UCF and Tulane which are a combined 2-13. The Houston offense will give Vanderbilt a challenge even though the Commodores possess a tough stop unit. Houston's offense is averaging 569 ypg over the last five games while scoring no fewer than 38 points. This is the lowest over/under the Cougars have seem all season and it is that way because of the results from Vanderbilt which has yet to go over a total this season. Houston is 16-6 to the over in its last 22 home games coming off a double-digit conference win while going 12-3 to the over in its last 15 home games after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of its previous game. While the Commodores are on an under run, they are 9-3-1 to the over in their last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (167) Vanderbilt Commodores/(168) Houston Cougars
|10-31-15||USC v. California OVER 69.5||Top||27-21||Loss||-106||53 h 41 m||Show|
This has the makings of a shootout which is the reason for the big number. The California offense is an explosive one but has been held in check the last two games against Utah and UCLA as it scored just 24 points in each game. Those were both on the road however so a return home is what the Golden Bears need to get the offense going again. Possible No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft, Jared Goff, leads the passing offense that ranks second behind only pass happy Washington State in the Pac 12 with 346 ypg. The Trojans did a phenomenal job getting pressure on Travis Wilson last week, forcing him into throwing four interceptions, but have been exposed by the likes of Kevin Hogan and DeShone Kizer. The young secondary will surely be tested here. USC quarterback Cody Kessler isn't far behind as the Trojans are averaging over 326 ypg which is 14th in the nation and he has thrown 18 touchdowns to just five interceptions. The Golden Bears have allowed 70 points the last two games while giving up 259.6 ypg and 12.4 yards per completion as the secondary is a very weak unit. California's secondary was carved up by UCLA freshman QB Josh Rosen, who completed 34-of-47 passes for 399 yards and three touchdowns. Kessler had a huge game against Cal last season, completing 31-of-42 for 371 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. 10* Over (153) USC Trojans/(154) California Golden Bears
|10-31-15||Rutgers v. Wisconsin OVER 51.5||Top||10-48||Win||100||50 h 42 m||Show|
We played against Rutgers last week as it managed just seven points against the Buckeyes and while it is facing another tough defense, there is the hope of more offense this week. The Scarlet Knights defense has been atrocious of late as they have allowed 49 and 52 points which is right around where this number sits and it happens to be the lowest over/under Rutgers since facing Penn St. back on September 19th. The under has come in four of their last five games which helps with the value and the number itself. Wisconsin is on a much longer streak as it has stayed below the total in six straight games after starting the season 2-0 to the over. Defense has been the story as the Badgers have allowed just 7.7 ppg throughout this under streak while the offense has been pretty average. Wisconsin has scored no more than 28 points but it has faced some tough defenses along the way and Rutgers is not classified in that group. The Scarlet Knights are ranked 111th in total defense so the Badgers are expected to have a big day offensively. Despite the recent run of unders, Wisconsin is 15-3 to the over in its last 18 home games coming off a double-digit conference win and 28-14 to the over in its last 42 games when playing against teams with a losing record. 10* Over (131) Rutgers Scarlet Knights/(132) Wisconsin Badgers
|10-24-15||Missouri v. Vanderbilt OVER 35||Top||3-10||Loss||-106||74 h 51 m||Show|
Based on contrarian theory, which I am a big believer in, this has a potential to be a very high scoring game. Recent results completely go against that but that is where we get the most value as these totals need to be adjusted almost to the point where a game cannot be played the other way. Missouri is coming off a defensive battle against Georgia last weekend as it lost 9-6 to the Bulldogs which was its seventh straight under to start the season. The offense has been inept the last two weeks as the Tigers have managed just nine points total but they will definitely improve upon that this week against Vanderbilt based on the bounce angle. The Commodores come in on a 5-0 under run in its lined games as they have also had trouble on the offensive side of things. They will face a defense that is ranked eighth in the nation in total defense but for both sides, this is the lowest over/under so far this year. The under run is surprising for the Commodores as they lead the SEC with an average of 39.7 pass attempts per game. Even in the Commodores two victories, they averaged 30 passing attempts. Overall, Vanderbilt is averaging 399 ypg, much better than last season's 283.3 ypg. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is 42 or less after allowing three points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 26-5 (83.9 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (333) Missouri Tigers/(334) Vanderbilt Commodores
|10-24-15||Duke v. Virginia Tech OVER 43.5||Top||45-43||Win||100||74 h 30 m||Show|
Duke ranks second nationally in passing defense with 131.2 ypg, second in scoring defense with 9.3 ppg and fourth in total defense with 252.8 ypg, a stark contrast to the offensive-minded teams that have come to define the Blue Devils' recent resurgence under coach David Cutcliffe. Of the five FBS teams the Blue Devils have played, four - Army, Northwestern, Boston College and Tulane - are ranked 109th nationally or worse in yards per game. The only Duke opponent in the top half of FBS offenses is Georgia Tech, which barely made the cut at 58th. Virginia has played much of the season with backup quarterback Brenden Motley though that will change this week with Michael Brewer back in the starting lineup. Brewer gives the team a more stable option with his experience and despite playing with a backup as well as facing three teams that currently reside in the top 20 nationally in total defense, the Hokies are averaging 5.49 yppl which is half a yard better than last season. Virginia Tech was long known for its defense but that is not the case this season as it is a pretty average unit. The Blue Devils have been average on that side of the ball as well but facing Northwestern and Boston College, ranked 18th and 1st in the country respectively, has had a lot to do with that. Duke is 7-0 to the under while Virginia Tech has gone under in three straight games and that puts this total into another great contrarian situation that we can take advantage of with a low posted total. 10* Over (361) Duke Blue Devils/(362) Virginia Tech Hokies
|10-24-15||Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 49||Top||23-20||Win||100||70 h 1 m||Show|
We played on Syracuse and Virginia to go under the total last Saturday and it was one of the worst total beats you will see. It went over the total by 31 points which may not seem like a bad beat at all but consider the fact that after scoreless first quarter, 35 fourth quarter points were scored including two defensive touchdowns. Then the game was sent into overtime on a field goal as time expired and then 34 overtime points were scored. That made it six straight games that have gone over the total to start the season after closing last season with six straight unders. Pittsburgh meanwhile is coming off a high scoring game against Georgia Tech which is also playing into this total. The number this week is slightly higher than it was last week despite playing a Syracuse offense that is ranked 110th in the nation in total offense compared to the Yellow Jackets being ranked 61st in total offense. Georgia Tech does have a better defense but not much as it is ranked 52nd compared to 69th for Syracuse. This has been a very low scoring series of late, averaging 32.3 ppg with all three of those staying well below the total. Going back, Syracuse is 25-11 to the under in its last 36 games after allowing 37 points or more last game and 17-6 to the under in its last 23 games after three or more consecutive straight up losses. Meanwhile, the under is 5-2 in the Panthers last seven games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* Under (325) Pittsburgh Panthers/(326) Syracuse Orange
|10-17-15||Missouri v. Georgia OVER 45.5||Top||6-9||Loss||-108||76 h 41 m||Show|
Georgia last lost two straight games to fall from out of playoff consideration and this feels like the game that the offense is going to explode. The Bulldogs are averaging 37.3 ppg on the season while putting up 451.3 ypg and with the absence of running back Nick Chubb, we should see the Bulldogs air the ball out more. Georgia now is seeing its smallest total of the season and one that is close to two touchdowns lower than that of last week. Part of that is due to the opponent as Missouri has struggled on offense in half of its games but the potential is there against a defense that has been gashed the last two games. The total is low as expected because of the inconsistent offense with another reason being the Tigers going under the total in all six of their games this season. Quarterback Maty Mauk will not be in uniform against and freshman Drew Lock will be making his third start which is typically the time quarterbacks start becoming more comfortable. His first start came against South Carolina and Georgia's defense is more in line with the Gamecocks defense as opposed to Florida who he faced last week and struggled. The Gatos defense is ranked 16th in the nation in total defense. Missouri falls into a great situation for a high scoring game as we play the over involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 coming off three or more consecutive unders, and averaging between 16.5 and 21 ppg going up against teams averaging 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 32-10 (76.2 percent) to the over since 1992. 10* Over (165) Missouri Tigers/(166) Georgia Bulldogs
|10-17-15||Appalachian State v. UL-Monroe OVER 50||Top||59-14||Win||100||75 h 10 m||Show|
Appalachian St. is coming off its first conference win over Georgia St. as it hung 37 points on the Panthers as the offense remains explosive. The Mountaineers played a game against Clemson and its 13th ranked defense so take that game out and they are averaging 41.5 ppg and surpassing that number this week should be no issue. They face a ULM defense that is allowing 412.8 ypg and 34 ppg, 87th and 101st in the nation respectively so there will once again be little resistance. Surprisingly, Appalachian St. has stayed under the total in all five of its games but the matchups have had a lot to do with that and this one screams over. The Warhawks offense has been pretty solid against like opposition as take out games against Georgia and Alabama and they are averaging 34 ppg in their other three games. They will be facing a tough defense so it is not going to be easy for ULM but playing at home certainly helps and we are not asking them to even come close to that 34 ppg average as most of the points will be coming from the other side. The Warhawks have gone under the total in three of their last four which is also because of matchups. This week, the Mountaineers are seeing their lowest posted total and ULM is seeing its second lowest. The over is 28-13-1 in the Warhawks last 42 games against teams with a winning record including a 4-0 over run in their four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This one should fly over the number. 10* Over (185) Appalachian St. Mountaineers/(186) ULM Warhawks
|10-17-15||Syracuse v. Virginia UNDER 54||Top||38-44||Loss||-107||72 h 32 m||Show|
Virginia opened the season with an under against UCLA with the closing total being 53. Since then, the Cavaliers have had no games go under the total and all of those closed in the 40's. On the other side, Syracuse is a perfect 5-0 to the over on the season and like Virginia, all of those totals closed in the 40's. Because of the high scoring games (Syracuse is averaging 55.6 ppg and Virginia is averaging 58 ppg) the total this week is the highest both teams have seen. Granted the total is still below what each team is averaging in its games but because the number is way above what they are accustomed with, the value is big. The defenses of both sides are not great but the offenses do not have much going for them and will still find it tough going. Syracuse is 108th in total offense while Virginia is 99th in total offense and typically when a poor offense goes up against a poor defense, the latter succeeds more the majority of the time. Syracuse offensive coordinator Tim Lester has struggled to establish the run early in the last couple games, but don't expect him to abandon course with freshman Eric Dungey at quarterback. Running back Jordan Fredericks should test a Virginia defense that's allowed more than 4.5 ypc this season and of course, more running the better as it eats more clock. Syracuse is 31-12 to the under in its last 43 games after being outgained by 17 or more total yards in its previous game while Virginia has gone 8-1-1 to the under in its last 10 ACC games. 10* Under (137) Syracuse Orange/(138) Virginia Cavaliers
|10-10-15||Colorado v. Arizona State OVER 55.5||Top||23-48||Win||100||102 h 17 m||Show|
Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. This is a situation where both teams have seen a huge majority of their games go under the number. Colorado is coming off its third straight under and fourth in fifth games as 65 points were scored against Oregon but that was still not enough to push it over. In five games, the posted closing total wax in the 60's while the other was at 56.5 so the Buffaloes are facing their lowest total of the season. Colorado is ranked 38th in total offense so it has the ability to move the ball. Arizona St. meanwhile has seen all five of its games stay below the number which is also part of the reason of the huge overadjustment this week. Both offense and defense have been up and down and overall, the Sun Devils are ranked 44th in total offense and 60th in total defense. All five of the Sun Devils games have had closing totals in the 60's so there is huge value in their side of this total as well. While the teams are a combined 9-1 to the under, that would go to 5-5 had the total be what they are using this week. Colorado is 11-3 to the over in its last 14 games when playing against a team with a winning record and 21-5 to the over in its last 26 games after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in two straight games while Arizona St. is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after failing to cover the spread in two out of its last three games. Over (369) Colorado Buffaloes/(370) Arizona St. Sun Devils
|10-10-15||Northwestern v. Michigan OVER 35||Top||0-38||Win||100||96 h 47 m||Show|
Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. This is the biggest contrarian situation of all three and we are catching an unheard of number in the college game. Michigan and Northwestern bring in two of the best defenses in the country as the Wolverines are ranked 2nd in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense while the Wildcats are ranked 5th in total defense and 1st in scoring defense. Those are obviously some incredible rankings but we have to take a look at the opposition. Of the nine FBS teams that they have faced, the total offense rankings are 112th, 64th, 63rd, 31st, 114th, 81st, 87th, 111th and 76th. So the schedules have been very favorable. Because of the stout defenses, both teams have stayed below the number in all five of their games and because of that, we are getting great value on this adjusted total. Rarely do you see a college game with an over/under in the mid-30's but that is the case here. While the defenses could still control the game, it will not take a lot for this one to go over. Michigan has a great situation on its side to go high as we play the over involving teams that are averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against a team averaging between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc, after allowing 1.5 or less ypc last game. This situation is 36-9 (80 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Additionally, Northwestern is 17-6 to the over in its last 23 games against teams who allow 14 or fewer ppg. Over (373) Northwestern Wildcats/(374) Michigan Wolverines
|10-10-15||Kent State v. Toledo OVER 44||Top||7-38||Win||100||95 h 8 m||Show|
Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. Toledo is expected to win the MAC West behind an offense that averaged close to 500 ypg and 36.6 ppg a season ago. While only five starters are back, the quarterback, leading rusher and leading receiver are three of those. The Rockets are averaging 26.8 ppg which is a significant decline but they have scored 30 or more points two times. Because of the offense not hitting its potential and a defense that has overachieved, Toledo has gone under the total in all four games. Kent St. meanwhile is coming off a low scoring game against Miami Ohio which was its second under in four games. The total against the RedHawks closed at 43 and we are seeing a very light increase here despite playing an offense that is significantly better. As for Toledo, this is the lowest over/under it has seen this season by over 10 points so it is a massive overadjustment. It should be noted that Kent St.'s two best defensive efforts came against teams ranked 105th and 112th in total offense and 121st and 126th in scoring offense. The over is 5-1 in the Golden Flashes last six games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game while the over is 20-7 in Toledo's last 27 home games when playing against a team with a losing record and the over is 15-3 in its last 18 home games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in its previous game. Over (333) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(334) Toledo Rockets
|10-08-15||Washington v. USC OVER 56||Top||17-12||Loss||-106||53 h 20 m||Show|
Both Washington and USC are coming off an under in their last games which is providing some value heading into this one. The Huskies have gone under the total in three of four games with the lone game going over by just 2.5 points while USC is 2-2 with totals with one of those games going over by just 1.5 points. The USC defense is not as good as it may look as far as points allowed, which sits at 17.5 ppg. The Trojans are allowing 410 ypg on the season which is 90th in the country and that includes holding Idaho to 311 total yards. In the last game against Arizona St., USC allowed just 14 points but gave up 454 total yards and was the beneficiary of four Sun Devils turnovers. Washington meanwhile is allowing just 15.8 ppg and 321 ypg which is 17th and 29th in the nation but those numbers and rankings are skewed because of a game against Sacramento St. of the FCS where they pitched a shutout and gave up 212 total yards. Take that game out of the equation and the numbers are much more average. Washington allowed 481 yards to California in its last game and while that offense is great, the Trojans offense is even better. The Trojans fall into a solid situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over involving teams off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 63-28 (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Washington is 18-5 to the over in its last 23 road games teams averaging 37 or more ppg while USC is 12-2 to the over in its last 14 home games after scoring 31 points or more in four straight games. 10* Over (305) Washington Huskies/(306)USC Trojans
|10-02-15||Connecticut v. BYU OVER 45.5||Top||13-30||Loss||-106||62 h 10 m||Show|
We are basing this on contrarian theory as we have seen some low scoring games between these two teams. Connecticut has seen all four of its games go under the total as the offense has really struggled to move the ball and to score as the Huskies are ranked 120th in total offense and 125th in scoring offense. Something says they get it going this week however as BYU has allowed at least 24 points in each game. The Cougars have gone under in each of their last two games as the offense is coming off a pair of bad efforts. They will be facing another tough defense but returning home will make a big difference as they tallied 35 points in their lone home game this season against Boise St. and the Broncos have a better defense than Connecticut. BYU is ranked 107th in total offense as the running game has held it back but it is tied for first in the nation in redzone offense. These teams played last season and while that game stayed below the total, it closed over a touchdown higher than what the number is this year. The Cougars have not seen a total this low since 2012 which represents a big overreaction to what has transpired early in the season. 10* Over (109) Connecticut Huskies/(110) BYU Cougars
|10-01-15||Miami (Fla) v. Cincinnati UNDER 68.5||Top||23-34||Win||100||35 h 26 m||Show|
We played on Cincinnati last week as it lost but was able to cover in its shootout with Memphis. That was the fourth straight game to go over the total for the Bearcats and because of that, we are seeing a ridiculously high number this week. Miami meanwhile has gone over the total in two of three games including the last two with the lone game staying under being a game against FCS Bethune Cookman. This is the highest total the Hurricanes have seen this season so we are definitely getting value going the other way. Both offenses have been leading the way but the defenses should be able to have success here. Cincinnati had to tangle with one of the best offenses in the nation last week and it takes a step down here. Miami meanwhile is ranked 27th in total defense while sitting 13th in passing efficiency defense. The Bearcats will be without Gunner Kiel at quarterback after suffering a scary head injury last week and while backup Hayden Moore was sensational, there will be a lot more resistance here. Miami 6-0 to the under in its last six games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in three consecutive games over the last three seasons while Cincinnati is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. 10* Under (103) Miami Hurricanes/(104) Cincinnati Bearcats
|09-26-15||Tennessee v. Florida UNDER 48||Top||27-28||Loss||-106||73 h 24 m||Show|
Tennessee has put together two high scoring games but the last one can be discounted against Western Carolina of the FCS. The first came against Bowling Green but the Falcons have no defense to speak of and the Volunteers will be facing its toughest defensive test of the season. In their game against Oklahoma, they were shutout in the second half and 12 points in overtime skewed the final score that still remained under the total. Florida has also been involved in two high scoring games but is coming off a defensive game against Kentucky last week. The Gators will also be facing its toughest defense so far so do not expect results like the ones from their first two games. Both teams fall into great low scoring situations. For Tennessee, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 58-25 (70 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. For Florida, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 42-15 (73.7 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. 10* Under (357) Tennessee Volunteers/(358) Florida Gators
|09-05-15||Stanford v. Northwestern UNDER 46.5||Top||6-16||Win||100||91 h 14 m||Show|
Quarterback is a huge area of concern for Northwestern as senior Zack Oliver, sophomore Matt Alviti and redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson competed closely throughout the spring but no one broke away. Thorson has been named the starter so we cannot expect to see a lot of explosiveness from the Wildcats. There are a ton of unknowns around him as well as the running backs and wide receivers lack experience. Stanford lost a lot on defense as well so that unit will be rather green but there is a lot of potential and when comparing the Northwestern offense and the Stanford defense, the latter has the biggest upside. Stanford ranked 3rd nationally last year in defensive rushing S&P+, and 4th in passing S&P+, while Northwestern ranked 111th out of 129 teams in offensive S&P+. The Wildcats defense was not very good last season as they were riddled with injuries but the players that were forced into action gained valuable experience. They are not going to be an elite unit but they will be good enough to keep Stanford from going off. The Cardinal offense brings back four of five starters from the offensive line and the running game will be at the forefront after last season, they failed to produce a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time since 2007. Under head coach David Shaw, Stanford is 18-4 to the under in its 22 road games while under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern is 13-4 to the under in its 17 non-conference home games. 10* Under (171) Stanford Cardinal/(172) Northwestern Wildcats
|01-04-15||Toledo v. Arkansas State UNDER 69.5||Top||63-44||Loss||-113||15 h 35 m||Show|
This total continues to climb which is what we were hoping for and expected and it could reach 70 by gametime which would be the highest total either team has seen all season long. We saw a low scoring game yesterday in Birmingham, or lower than we have seen of late, and while that total went down from opening, a lot of that was weather related. Prior to yesterday, the over was 11-3-1 over the last 15 bowl games so it is to a point where the linesmakers have to overadjust these numbers based on heavy public action. This is another example of that as we have two potent offenses taking the field in Mobile. The big factor here is preparation time which I feel is a big edge for the defenses as well as the makeup of both offenses. While they both like to run a faced paced attack, both rely heavily on the run as Arkansas St. averages 12.7 more runs than passes while Toledo averages 10.5 more runs than passes. Those are significant differentials and we all know how much rushing can effect a total with the clock running as much as it should be. The defenses are nothing special but both have been decent against the run which could help limit the number of really big plays. Toledo is 9-0 to the under in its last nine games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while Arkansas St. is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. 10* Under (275) Toledo Rockets/(276) Arkansas St. Red Wolves
|01-01-15||Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 58.5||Top||42-35||Loss||-105||32 h 19 m||Show|
The first year of the College Football Playoffs definitely came with some controversy but in the end, we have four very capable teams of taking home the National Championship. The second matchup is the Sugar Bowl between Ohio St. and Alabama. The Buckeyes snuck into the final four thanks to a 59-0 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship as they leapfrogged TCU and now face another stiff test. Alabama had no issues with Missouri in the SEC Championship and it is a big favorite to make it to the championship game on January 12th. We will be looking at the total here however as I feel it is too big of a number with two outstanding defenses. Sure, both offenses can score a bunch and we have seen that of late with Ohio St. going over the total in three straight games and Alabama going over the total in its last two games. Those five games were basically surpassed by the offense that rolled to at least 42 points in each game. But taking a look at the defenses faced tells the story with the exception of Wisconsin which decided no to show up. Now the offenses will be facing the 10th ranked Crimson Tide defense and the 15th ranked Buckeyes defense. And I think these defenses can dictate the game and we are getting a very favorable number to work with. Both teams fall into a similar situation where we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 8.3 or more ypa, in non-conference games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (263) Ohio St. Buckeyes/(264) Alabama Crimson Tide
|12-31-14||Boise State v. Arizona UNDER 68||Top||38-30||Push||0||25 h 49 m||Show|
This is the highest total of the three New Year's Eve games and we will take advantage of that by playing the under. While this game features two offenses that can move the ball and score a ton of points, it also features two underrated defenses. While Boise St. and Arizona are ranked 39th and 103rd respectively in total defense, it seems like the Broncos have the far better defense when looking at yppl, Boise St. remains around the same ranking while the Wildcats jump up to 68th which is a better indication of where they stand. As far as the matchup, Boise St. is expected to run the ball a lot behind Jay Ajayi and for Arizona, with quarterback Anu Solomon struggling against Oregon and eventually getting benched, it is unlikely the Wildcats are going to set him free. The Broncos had a stretch of seven straight unders prior to their MWC Championship and one look at the opposition will tell you why. Both teams fall into a phenomenal late season bowl game situation that favors a low scoring game as we play the under in the second half of the season on a neutral field where the total is between 63.5 and 70 in a game involving two teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, in non-conference games. This situation is 24-4 (85.7 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons with the average score being just 51.3 ppg. The under is 7-2-1 in the Broncos last 10 games in December while the under is 6-1 in the Wildcats last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (251) Boise St. Broncos/(252) Arizona Wildcats
|12-22-14||BYU v. Memphis UNDER 56.5||Top||48-55||Loss||-105||4 h 17 m||Show|
BYU and Memphis come into this game riding significant winning streaks and both offenses put up some big numbers over the last three games played for each. That being said, the time off is a big advantage for the defenses and the Memphis defense has been playing at a high level all season long. Coming in to this game the Tigers have the fifth ranked defense in points allowed and BYU had a tough time when it did face a strong stop unit. The Cougars defense has not been as consistent but they have been strong in such situations as head coach Rocco Mendenhall is 12-4 to the under against teams that are outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg. Additionally, both teams fall into similar situations as we play the under in the second half of the season where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 50-100 ypg. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) to the under over the last five seasons. Memphis has gone under the total in its last six games against teams with a winning record and is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Meanwhile, the under is 20-8 in the Cougars last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (211) BYU Cougars/(212) Memphis Tigers
|12-20-14||South Alabama v. Bowling Green OVER 53||Top||28-33||Win||100||80 h 33 m||Show|
Bowling Green and South Alabama enter the Camellia Bowl in not great form as the Falcons lost their last three games and the Jaguars went down in four of their last five games. There should be plenty of motivation on both sides to try and win considering Bowling Green has not won a bowl game since 2004 and South Alabama is making its first ever appearance in a bowl game. In this case, the matchup is a good one for a lot of points to be scored. Keeping opponents off the scoreboard has been a problem for Bowling Green, which surrendered over 40 points six times and is ranked 101st in the country in scoring defense, allowing 33.9 ppg. The rushing defense is especially bad and the Jaguars can take advantage as they have five players which ran the ball at least 65 times so they can bring it from a lot areas. Even though running keeps the clock moving, the can move it in big chunks and that of course will set up the passing game. On the other side, South Alabama was solid on defense up until its final two games of the season and it could be in for a long night here. Bowling Green features one of the nation's quickest offenses, averaging 29.8 ppg and 427.8 ypg and of its 43 touchdown drives, 27 took less than 120 seconds. We should see plenty of big plays and as long as we can avoid turnovers in deep enemy territory, this one should fly over the number. 10* Over (209) South Alabama Jaguars/(210) Bowling Green Falcons
|12-06-14||Wisconsin v. Ohio State UNDER 52.5||Top||0-59||Loss||-110||77 h 10 m||Show|
It was a very unfortunate break for Ohio St. when quarterback J.T. Barrett was lost for the season last week against Michigan. Now down to their third quarterback, the Buckeyes will not be able to win in a shootout and they will have to try and dictate the pace of this game for them to have their best shot at winning. We are still seeing a rather high total though and part of that is due to the recent history as Wisconsin has gone over in two of its last three games with a push and Ohio St. has gone over 10 of its last 11 games. So not only is there value in the number based on the contrarian angles but also the way we should see the game play out. The Badgers will try to grind out a win here by pounding the ball with running back Melvin Gordon, who rushed for 151 yards and one touchdown in last week's 34-24 win over the Golden Gophers. Ohio St. knows it has to stop the run which it has done a good job of this season. On the other side, the Wisconsin defense is ranked No. 2 in the nation because of an aggressive 3-4 scheme. The Badgers allow just 260.3 ypg and 16.8 ppg and while Cardale Jones is a capable backup quarterback, he will not be able to take control of the game against this defense. With a lot of running from both sides, the clock runs and this one stays under the total. 10* Under (127) Wisconsin Badgers/(128) Ohio St. Buckeyes
|11-14-14||Tulsa v. Central Florida UNDER 55||Top||7-31||Win||100||56 h 45 m||Show|
Tulsa snapped its seven-game losing streak with a win last week against SMU which really isn't saying much. It has been a struggle for a second consecutive season for the Golden Hurricane as they will miss out on a bowl game again after a string of three straight bowl games. The defense has been the issue which is evidenced by their 8-1 over mark on the season but they have faced some tough offenses along the way. That cannot be said on Friday however as UCF is averaging just over 330 ypg which is 112th in the country. The Knights are coming off a loss against Connecticut in their last game as their own defense, which is the strength of the team, let them down by allowing 37 points. They came into that game allowing an average of just 14 ppg over their previous five games so that unit is going to come into this one ready to made amends. They have gone over the total in two straight games but now they are seeing their biggest total of the season which present some great value going the other way. This is an interesting dynamic whereas Tulsa has produced an average of 922 yards in its games which is 15th most in the country but UCF has produced an average of just 638.4 yards in its games which is the fourth fewest in the country. The Knights are the better team by far which means the game will be controlled by their game thus resulting in a low scoring game. 10* Under (317) Tulsa Golden Hurricane/(318) Central Florida Knights
|11-12-14||Kent State v. Bowling Green OVER 52.5||Top||20-30||Loss||-106||29 h 28 m||Show|
Bowling Green because bowl eligible last Tuesday with a win over Akron and it now has a 1.5 game lead over Ohio in the MAC East with three games remaining. After scoring 31 or more points in six of their first seven games, the Falcons have totaled just 41 points in their last two games and going back, they have gone under in their last four games. That presents us with a great opportunity to cash the over on Wednesday as Bowling Green is working with its lowest total of the season and its first one in the 50's all year. Falcons games have produced an average of 974.3 ypg this season which is the sixth highest yardage output in the country. Kent St. fell to 1-8 with a loss against Toledo last Tuesday in a game that also stayed below the total, the second straight under for the Golden Flashes. The offense has been hit or miss this season and has been the latter the majority of the time but even Kent St. should have success moving the ball against Bowling Green's 123rd ranked defense. On the other side, the defense has shown signs of good play but those times have been rare and the Golden Flashes are just 88th in total defense. They have faced four teams ranked in the top 50 in offense and have allowed an average of 38.3 ppg while allowing just 23.6 ppg in the other five games against teams ranked outside the top 50. Bowling Green falls into the former so we should see plenty of points. 10* Over (307) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(308) Bowling Green Falcons
|11-07-14||Utah State v. Wyoming UNDER 46||Top||20-3||Win||100||76 h 52 m||Show|
We are going the opposite way with our total on Friday as we are catching another matchup with a skewed over/under based on recent results. Utah St. travels to Wyoming for a rare nationally televised game in Laramie. The Aggies became bowl eligible last Saturday with a win at Hawaii, its second straight win over a bottom feeder from the MWC. Both of those games went over the total as well as last week they were able to surpass the 41.5 number with ease. Now Utah St. is seeing a higher number this week with a lot that based on the other side. Wyoming snapped a four-game losing streak with a victory last week at Fresno St. as it scored a season high 45 points. The Cowboys offense has picked things up lately, scoring 28 or more points in three of its last four games after scoring 20 points or less in its first five games. This has a lot to do with the defenses faced however and this week they will take on an Aggies stop unit that has allowed 20 points or less in five straight games and one that is ranked 39th in total defense. Wyoming has gone over the total in five straight games and that is helping with the number this week. Four of those games were on the road and the other game at home took overtime to surpass. The under is 10-3 in the Aggies last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game while the under is 12-3 in the Cowboys last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Under (115) Utah St. Aggies/(116) Wyoming Cowboys
|11-06-14||Clemson v. Wake Forest OVER 42||Top||34-20||Win||100||51 h 22 m||Show|
It is rare to see a total this low in college football but with recent offensive struggles by both teams, it isn't all that surprising. What is surprising though is the struggles on offense on the Clemson side as it has been unable to do nothing on that side of the ball the last three games. The Tigers have scored 23, 17 and 16 points over their last three games but they have played some solid defenses in those games that are ranked 6th, 11th and 38th. Wake Forest will be the worst defense it has faced over this stretch and I expect this offense to come back around behind quarterback Cole Stoudt who has actually been very solid in his three games since replacing Deshaun Watson. The Demon Deacons have allowed an average of 32 ppg over their last three games and two of those came against Boston College and Syracuse, ranked 65th and 93rd respectively in total offense. Wake Forest has had problems on offense all season long as it has not surpassed 24 points in any game. It has gotten even worse of late but we are banking on some success Thursday night despite playing a very tough Tigers defense. This number is low enough to where we do not need Wake Forest to go off as a limited amount of points will help as the Clemson offense takes care of most of this total. Wake Forest has gone under in five straight and Clemson has gone under in four straight so that makes this a huge contrarian value play. 10* Over (111) Clemson Tigers/(112) Wake Forest Demon Deacons
|10-21-14||Arkansas State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 54||Top||40-55||Win||100||13 h 13 m||Show|
Two of the three remaining undefeated teams in Sun Belt Conference action take the field tonight with the winner still in the mix for the conference championship and the loser likely out. The reason for that is that neither team plays first place Georgia Southern this season so the winner is likely going to have to win out because of the Panthers remaining schedule. Louisiana won for us last week as the offense got going and I expect that to continue. Louisiana came into the season as the preseason favorite to win the conference and after a rough stretch, it is finally hitting its stride and is still the team to beat with the dynamic Terrance Broadway at quarterback. The Cajuns have put up 34 points in each of the last two games so they are playing at their highest level of the season. Arkansas St. meanwhile has also been hitting its stride on offense, scoring 28 and 52 points in its two conference games as quarterback Fredi Knighten has been outstanding in his own right. Both of these defenses have been playing at a high level but a lot of that has to do with the opposition and both will be taking a big step up in class here. And it is those defenses that is keeping this total low as both has numbers in the 60's in their last game and now they are catching it in the low 50's. Last year saw an O/U of 69 so we are seeing a two-touchdown adjustment for a Louisiana team that has not changed and an Arkansas St. team that does have new personnel but has a new head coach that has an offense mind. Weather will not be an issue. 10* Over (101) Arkansas St. Red Wolves/(102) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
|10-10-14||San Diego State v. New Mexico OVER 46||Top||24-14||Loss||-114||60 h 25 m||Show|
The quarterback situation for both San Diego St. and New Mexico is not good as both starters are likely out for this one but that actually helps us with this total. Aztecs quarterback Quinn Kaehler missed the last game against Fresno St. and the offense suffered as they put up just 270 total yards as backup Nick Bawden had a horrific game. The extra prep time going into this one can only help and the opponent is a benefit as well. The fact that New Mexico allowed just nine points last week against UTSA can be considered an anomaly as prior to that, the Lobos had allowed at least 31 points in each of their first four games. The defense is still a very porous unit overall as they are ranked 116th in total defense, allowing a whopping 504.2 ypg while giving up 33.6 ppg. On the other side, Lobos quarterback Cole Gautsche came back after missing significant time only to leave once again. Backup Lamar Jordan was efficient once again but he will not be asked to win as the triple-option pistol ground attack is ranked fourth nationally with an average of 322.4 ypg on the ground. San Diego St. has been decent on defense but it is skewed by its first game against Northern Arizona of the FCS when it allowed just 312 yards and seven points. This is by far the lowest total each team has seen this season and while the quarterback situation is aiding that, the Aztecs have gone under is every game while New Mexico has gone under in two straight so we are getting value based on that as well. 10* Over (107) San Diego St. Aztecs/(108) New Mexico Lobos
|09-19-14||Connecticut v. South Florida UNDER 47.5||Top||14-17||Win||100||60 h 57 m||Show|
The Friday night football schedule has been pretty lame as far as entertainment goes and this Friday should be no exception with two of the worst teams from the AAC squaring off. Both Connecticut and South Florida are 1-2 heading into their conference openers with both of those victories coming against FCS teams and by very narrow margins to say the least. This game looks like a tossup as far as the winner but we can expect another boring contest as far as schemes go and this total is still too high for this matchup. The offenses for both dies have been horrible as the Huskies come in ranked 115th in the nation, averaging 289.3 ypg while the Bulls are not much better at 113th, averaging 300.3 ypg. While it can be said the opposing defenses have something to do with it, it comes down to the inexperience of the quarterbacks and very poor offensive line play. Both sides are willing to grind it out and not take chances that can hurt the offense. The last four meetings in this series have stayed well under the total with the highest scoring game reaching just 35 points. South Florida is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after going over the total last game while going 7-0 to the under in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile Connecticut is 4-0 to the under in its last four games following a double-digit home loss while going 15-5 to the under in its last 20 games as a road underdog of seven points or less. Despite what we have seen this year, this is the highest posted total over the last five meetings. 10* Under (305) Connecticut Huskies/(306) South Florida Bulls
|01-05-14||Arkansas State v. Ball State UNDER 64||Top||23-20||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
Bettors have been killing it with the overs the last few bowl games as they are on an 8-1 run after the early games on New Years and 12-4 over since New Years Eve. While those games do not dictate this outcome, the adjustments of the total does and we are getting value because of it. Adjustments have been made throughout the last couple weeks but it is no secret that the over will get a majority of the action again tonight and a lot of that is also history based. Arkansas St. has gone over the total in each of its last four games while Ball St. has also gone over the total in each of its last four games. Regulars know that is a trend I love going against, especially when both teams are involved in extensive ones. There is no doubt these offenses are explosive but the defenses have held their own for the most part. It is interesting to note these teams are a combined 0-5 against teams that also made it to a bowl game and those were some of the worst offensive performances of their season as the average score on offense in those five games was just 17.8 ppg. Both of these teams have had successful over runs this season but a lot of that has had to do with where the total stood. When the total was less than 62, Arkansas St. was 6-2 to the over but when it was 62 or higher, it was 3-1 to the under. For Ball St., it was also 6-2 to the over when the total was less than 62 but was 2-2 when it was higher than 62. Arkansas St. is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better while going 8-1 to the under in its last nine games when playing a nonconference game away from home. On the other side, the under is 6-2-1 in the Cardinals last nine games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* Under (267) Arkansas St. Red Wolves/(268) Ball St. Cardinals
|01-03-14||Clemson v. Ohio State UNDER 71.5||Top||40-35||Loss||-110||12 h 11 m||Show|
When these teams come to mind, most think of two very potent offenses and that is certainly true but the defenses do not get enough credit on either side. Clemson is ranked 22nd in total defense, allowing 350.8 ypg while Ohio St. is ranked 30th in total defense, allowing 362.2 ypg. The scoring defenses are also right up there as both teams allow just a tad over 21 ppg which is good for the top 20 for both teams. Despite this, we are seeing one of the biggest totals in the entire bowl schedule as the number has risen about four points in most places since opening around 67. The Clemson defense should be especially pumped up for this game as it does not want a repeat of a couple years ago as it will be trying to make amends for its embarrassing 70-33 loss to West Virginia in the 2012 Orange Bowl. Comparing the two units, Clemson is 55 spots higher than the 2011 season in total defense, 64 spots higher in scoring defense than 2011 and 65 spots higher in third-down conversion defense than 2011. In addition, Clemson ranks second in the nation in three-and-outs and leads the nation with 112 tackles for loss. Clemson needs eight more to set the new single-season school record. The Tigers have had trouble stopping the run, allowing an average of 169.5 rushing ypg in their last four games, but have been solid against the pass, yielding an average of 132.3 ypg and two total passing touchdowns over that same span and that means we should see a heavy dose of running which keeps the clock going as well. We has a fantastic situation on our side as we play the under in the second half of the season where the total is greater than or equal to 63 in a game involving two teams allowing between 330 and 390 ypg, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-6 (83.3 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (263) Clemson Tigers/(264) Ohio St. Buckeyes
|01-01-14||Wisconsin v. South Carolina UNDER 51||Top||24-34||Loss||-106||24 h 45 m||Show|
This is a pretty evenly matched game which could go either way and I feel we are getting some great value on the total. January bowl games in this totals range are 74-32 (70 percent) to the under when teams from BCS conference square off and while we cannot blindly bet that trend, it makes sense. Teams with this much time off tend to lose some continuity on offense while the defenses do not fall off as much. Additionally, we are dealing with two excellent defenses here. Wisconsin is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense while South Carolina comes in ranked 18th in the country in total defense and the scoring defenses are even better, with Wisconsin and South Carolina coming in fifth and 13th respectively. These are definitely two potent offenses but they should be slowed down enough by the opposing stop units to keep this game a low scoring one. We have two excellent situations here as well as we play the under in nonconference games on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 involving a team, in this case Wisconsin, after having won three out of their last four games, with both teams coming from BCS conferences. This situation is 24-3 (88.9 percent) to the under over the last 10 seasons. Also, we play the under in nonconference games on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, with both teams coming from BCS conferences. This situation is 62-20 (75.6 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (251) Wisconsin Badgers/(252) South Carolina Gamecocks
|12-27-13||Marshall v. Maryland UNDER 62.5||Top||31-20||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
The further along we get into bowl season, the closer we take a look at unders so the simple reason that offenses are not as sharp as the rest period becomes longer and I think that will be the case here. Marshall boasts one of the best offenses, led by one of the best quarterbacks in Rakeem Cato, in the country but could have some trouble against the Terrapins which hail from the stronger conference and are virtually playing a home game. Maryland prefers to run the ball with quarterback C.J. Brown which can potentially keep the clock running. This is the highest total that the Terrapins have seen in any game this season against an FBS opponent so there is plenty of value there. They have gone over in three straight games while Marshall has gone over the total in seven straight games, again giving us value because of the inflated number. Maryland is 21-9 to the under in its last 30 games after scoring 37 or more points last time out while Marshall is 7-3 to the under in its last 10 nonconference games. Going back to the point about offenses coming in rusty the longer time off they had has proven to be profitable as in the In post-Christmas, pre-New Year's bowl games the past three years, the under is 34-26 which isn't overwhelming but the higher the total, the better the chances. Look for a lower than expected scoring game on Friday afternoon. 10* Under (217) Marshall Thundering Herd/(218) Maryland Terrapins
|12-21-13||Colorado State v. Washington State OVER 65.5||Top||48-45||Win||100||49 h 44 m||Show|
Bowl season kicks off Saturday with a game that could be one of the highest scoring games in the entire bowl season should things go along as expected. Both teams come in with potent offenses and horrible defenses and it will be the individual unit matchups that will show the biggest disparities. Washington St. is ranked fourth in the nation in passing offense, averaging 364.5 ypg while the Rams passing defense is ranked 109th in the country, allowing 265.4 ypg through the air. On the other side, Colorado St. is ranked 31st in rushing offense and stopping the run was a Cougars downfall as they are 84th in rushing defense, allowing 184 ypg on 4.4 ypc. The Rams possess one of the best running backs in the nation in Kapri Bibbs as he leads the nation with 28 touchdowns and he is sixth with 1,572 rushing yards. He is very capable of putting up big games as proven by his 312 yards rushing against Nevada and 291 yards against New Mexico. The Cougars are even worse in passing defense so if they try and crown the box to stop Bibbs, quarterback Garrett Grayson can tear them apart as he has thrown for over 300 yards in five of his last nine games. 10* Over (201) Colorado St. Rams/(202) Washington St. Cougars
|11-13-13||Ball State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 73||Top||27-48||Loss||-110||29 h 1 m||Show|
We are coming across an exceptionally high total here which is what we expected before it came out as most will be looking for a shootout come Wednesday night. This is the highest over/under both teams have seen this season in their games against FBS opposition and this one will prove to be too high. Both teams bring in very potent offenses as Ball St. is ranked 14th in the nation in scoring offense while Northern Illinois is ranked seventh. Scary rankings to say the least. However, one look at the defenses they have faced will paint a different picture. In Ball St.'s six conference games, it has gone against teams ranked 102, 84, 106, 86, 64 and 120 in scoring defense. In Northern Illinois' five conference games, it has gone against teams ranked 94, 120, 102, 84 and 86 in scoring defense. While the Cardinals and Huskies bring in total defenses ranked 84 and 83 respectively, they are ranked 48 and 53 in scoring defense and the logic is simple. They give up a lot of yards because they have big leads and a prevent defense will typically cause total yardage number to be inflated. Both defenses are better than that and that is reflected in the scoring defense rankings. Both teams have gone over the total in their last two games and that is playing a part here as well as public wagering will be riding those over streaks and the number had to be adjusted to make up for that. Expect a lower scoring game than expected. 10* Under (305) Ball St. Cardinals/(306) Northern Illinois Huskies
|10-25-13||Boise State v. BYU UNDER 61||Top||20-37||Win||100||10 h 9 m||Show|
This is a late breaking play on the under between Boise St. and BYU. Early in the week, the weather situation was still questionable and the total came down quite a bit from its opening number. Had the weather gotten worse, this total would have dropped even more but now that it looks to be a great weather night, we are seeing this number stabilize. Two potent offenses take the field tonight which is why we are dealing with a high total as Boise St. comes in ranked 18th in total offense while BYU comes in ranked 14th in total offense. Taking nothing away from those offenses, but the defenses they have faced has a lot to do with the offensive output on both sides. Taking away the game against Tennessee-Martin of the FCS, the Broncos have faced defenses ranked an average of 80th in the country. On the other side, the Cougars have faced defenses ranked an average of 64th but that is skewed somewhat. They faced Virginia and Georgia Tech, ranked 48th and 13th respectively in total defense and BYU put up its two lowest offensive yardage games on the season in those two contests. Take those rankings out of the equation and the Cougars have faced defenses ranked an average of 77th. Boise St. is ranked 60th in total defense which is very uncharacteristic for a Broncos defense however that ranking is low due to a horrible opening game against Washington where they allowed 592 total yards. On the other side, BYU is ranked 37th in total defense and while it allowed 46 points last week against Houston, two of the first three touchdowns were on a kickoff return and an interception return. Prior to that, BYU had not allowed more than 21 points in any of its games. Another factor to take into consideration is the offenses and they plan on doing. BYU has the 14th ranked rushing offense in the country so we will see a lot of that which keeps the clock running and quickens the game. As for Boise St., starting quarterback Joe Southwick went down with a broken ankle last week and Grant Hedrick is now behind center. While he did go 18-21 last week against Nevada after coming in, he is not going to be relied on his passing here. This is his first game on the road and the Broncos will play it as safe as they can. BYU is 16-5 to the under in its last 21 games after allowing 42 points or more last game while going 16-4 to the under in its last 20 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg on the season. Also, both teams fall into a great situation as we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams that are outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yppl or more, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-11 (76.6 percent) to the under over the last 10 seasons. 10* Under (109) Boise St. Broncos/(110) BYU Cougars
|09-21-13||Louisiana Tech v. Kansas OVER 50||Top||10-13||Loss||-110||77 h 14 m||Show|
Last season, Louisiana Tech had one of the most prolific offenses in the nation even though it slightly fell off near the end of the season. The Bulldogs were ranked first in the country in both total offense and scoring offense and while they were not expected to be close to that this year, the fall has been huge through the first three games of the season. Louisiana Tech is currently ranked 94th in total offense with 349.7 ypg and 103rd in scoring offense with just 18.7 ppg. The Bulldogs returned only three starters from last year's offense plus got a new head coach in Skip Holtz so it was going to take time for the offense to come together. Now in the fourth game of the season, I see that happening. We are also going in at the right time. Louisiana Tech has gone under the total in each of those first three games and those closing totals were 62, 62.5 and 59. Now we are getting a number that is as low as 50 in some spots so you can see the extreme adjustment that the linesmakers had to make here. Now is the time to go the other way. Kansas is in a very similar situation even though its offense stunk it up last year, finishing 93rd overall and 15th in scoring. Unlike the Bulldogs, the Jayhawks were expected to improve on the offensive side of the ball but we have yet to see much happen. Kansas is ranked 106th in total offense and 91st in scoring offense through it first two games. It's first game of the season against South Dakota did go over the total but it was a total that closed at 44.5 and it went over by just a single point. The Jayhawks game last week at Rice was under all the way as only 37 total points were scored which easily stayed below the closing number of 60. As it the case with Louisiana Tech, the total has come down drastically from the last game as we are seeing a 10-point difference which is huge. This is another case where we are able to buy a great number following the first overadjustment. The Louisiana Tech offense took the biggest hit in the offseason with eight starters lost, but the defense wasn't far behind with seven starters lost. The Bulldogs are ranked 87th in total defense and 71st in scoring defense and while these numbers are better than last season rankings of 120th and 116th respectively, this is still a struggling unit. On the other side, even though Kansas slowed down a strong Rice offense last week, I'm not sold it has turned it around in just one year after finishing 113th in total defense and 109th in scoring defense a season ago. I believe we are catching a great opportunity here with a solid number that is flying under the radar. 10* Over (361) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs/(362) Kansas Jayhawks
|09-12-13||TCU v. Texas Tech UNDER 62.5||Top||10-20||Win||100||47 h 54 m||Show|
TCU and Texas Tech have started the season by each going 2-0 to the over so that alone is going to plant the public behind the over again this week. Because of that, this total will likely continue to climb through gametime so when taking the under in these nationally televised weeknight games, it is best to hold off as late as you can because this number will not be coming down. The Horned Frogs and Red Raiders were involved in high scoring games this past weekend but it is very important to note that both went over the total in their games by just a half-point which is another reason for additional value. These teams met last year for the first time since 2006 and it was a very entertaining game that saw 109 points scored but 37 of those were scored in overtime so the final was a bit misleading. The total closed at 57 in last year's game so you can see how the number this year has been affected by that meeting as well as the recent results from this season. Texas Tech is ranked eighth in the nation in total offense and 10th in scoring offense, averaging 596 ypg and 51 ppg respectively, but the Red Raiders haven't exactly been challenged yet. They put up 731 total yards against Stephen F. Austin in their 61-13 win this past Saturday but comes a true test. They did pass that test last season against the Horned Frogs by scoring 56 points but they were held to 389 total yards as they were able to take advantage of three TCU turnovers. On the other side, the Horned Frogs are ranked 99th in total offense and things could get worse before they get better. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs, the win over Southeastern Louisiana came with a price. Quarterback Casey Pachall will miss the next eight weeks after breaking his left arm. Trevone Boykin is no slouch as he was the starting quarterback last season after Pachall left the team but he is more of a mobile threat than a pure passer so more running on the offense could speed up the game and keep the clock moving. TCU did not have a great game defensively in its opener against LSU but this is a unit that brought back nine starters from last year's 16th ranked total defense. While Texas Tech is not known for defense, it finished 38th in total defense last year and also brought back nine starters. Through two games this year, the Red Raiders are just 82nd in total defense but 40th in scoring defense as the 'bend don't break' style has paid off. I see a lower than expected scoring game on Thursday and we will take advantage of the generous number that we have been offered. 10* Under (103) TCU Horned Frogs/(204) Texas Tech Red Raiders
|08-31-13||Northwestern v. California OVER 57||Top||44-30||Win||100||79 h 15 m||Show|
We have not seen a ton of movement in this total since it opened but that should change by gametime so it may be best to jump on this one early as I expect it to go no where but up. Northwestern comes in with one of its best teams on paper in a long time and most of that comes from the offense as the Wildcats have eight starters back from last years 10-3 team. They averaged 31.7 ppg and they should get going right away against a Golden Bears defense that was ravaged at the end of the season last year, allowing 59 and 62 points in their final two games. Changes had to be made and they were. Along with head coach Jeff Tedford being shown the door, both coordinators are new. New defensive coordinator Andy Buh, who was most recently the linebackers coach at Wisconsin, will be installing a 4-3 formation to replace the 3-4 of years past. That will take time to develop and the Wildcats, led by the quarterback duo of Kain Colter and Trevor Siemian along with numerous playmakers including the top three returning rushers and six of the top seven returning receivers, will exploit it. Sonny Dykes takes over a California offense that averaged just 23.0 ppg and his system should provide a boost to the unit right away. In his third and final season with Louisiana Tech, Dykes oversaw the top ranked offense in the country as the Bulldogs racked up 577.9 ypg. It will not be that potent right away but the Golden Bears players are buying into it which makes a world of difference. Additionally, this is a very athletic team on offense and that is something that Northwestern tends to struggle against on that side of the ball. California is starting a true freshman at quarterback in Jared Goff, which is always a concern, but we are not asking for an astronomical amount of points here although going into the 30's would not be a surprise at all. Look for this one to fly over the total with ease. 10* Over (213) Northwestern Wildcats/(214) California Golden Bears
|01-02-13||Louisville v. Florida UNDER 47||Top||33-23||Loss||-115||10 h 50 m||Show|
Florida is obviously the better team in this matchup and that should lead the Gators to dictating the tempo and the way the game is played. They have one of the best defenses in the country as they are ranked fifth overall and third in scoring and they have allowed more than 20 points only once which came in their last game against Florida St. That game flew over the total which happened to be only the fourth game in 11 lined games that Florida surpassed the total. While the defense is one of the best, the offense has struggled all season as the Gators are ranked 101st in total offense and 74th in scoring offense. That scoring average is that high only because of a very positive turnover margin and Louisville is a team that does not turn the ball over much so Florida should not be given opportunities to take advantage. The Cardinals bring in a potent offense but the schedule had a lot to do with that as this is the first team from the top 50 that the Cardinals have had to face and the last time they saw a defense this good happened to come in their last game against Rutgers where they managed only 20 points. The passing offense is the strength but Louisville knows it has to run the ball to be successful as balance will be the key. Even when Louisville does try and pass, it is not going to be east. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater had an outstanding season, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards with 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while completing 69 percent of his passes. The Gators only allow approximately 186.4 ypg passing while also picking off the eighth-most passes with 19. The Gators defense kept Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel and Georgia's Aaron Murray in check and should do the same to Bridgewater. Both teams fall into a great total situation as we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yppl, in a non-conference game between two teams from major conferences. This situation is 72-26 (73.5 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (259) Louisville Cardinals/(260) Florida Gators
|12-01-12||Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 49.5||32-28||Loss||-110||97 h 5 m||Show|
After allowing a season high 29 points to Texas A&M, the Alabama defense clamped down and pitched two shutouts the last two weeks. Sure it came against Western Carolina and Auburn but it doesn't matter as this has been the top ranked defense all season and rightfully so. The Crimson Tide are allowing only 233.7 ypg and 9.3 ppg overall and they have help opponents to fewer than 200 yards an incredible five times. The Bulldogs offense is good but not great and will have trouble here.
Georgia faced a tough defense against South Carolina and then faced another two games later against Florida and it managed a total of 24 points in those contests. Other than that, the Bulldogs have racked up a ton of yards and a ton of points but that is skewed based on who they went up against. The other defenses they faced are currently ranked 84th, 66th, 69th, 86th, 105th, 18th, 81st, 68th and 69th in scoring defense. The only real surprise was against 18th Vanderbilt but it has played much better since then.
Georgia catches a lot of heat because of its defense, or at least it used to. The Bulldogs are 22nd in the country in total defense and 16th in scoring defense and they have gotten better as the season has progressed. After allowing 24.1 ppg through its first seven games, Georgia has allowed just 8.6 ppg over its last five games and is obviously peaking at the right time. The Bulldogs did allow Georgia Tech to gain 426 yards last week but they will not be facing a triple option again and they still limited the scoring.
Alabama is nothing special on offense as it is ranked 43rd overall including 77th in passing offense. The Crimson Tide took another hit with receiver Kenny Bell who was hurt last game and is out for the season. The receiving corps has been decimated with injuries this year and depth is thin so expect Alabama to go to its bread and butter which is the running game. It is 22nd in the nation in rushing offense while Georgia is just 67th in rushing defense. This will also keep the clock moving.
Alabama is part of an incredible totals situation where we play the under involving teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 that are outrushing their opponents by 100 or more ypg on the season. This situation is 28-3 to the under (90.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, Alabama is 17-5 to the under after scoring 42 or more points while Georgia is 21-8 to the under off a home win by 28 or more points. This is a massive game for both sides and these types of settings tend to lead to defensive dominated games and there is no reason to think differently here. 9* Under (333) Alabama Crimson Tide/(334) Georgia Bulldogs
|11-01-12||Eastern Michigan v. Ohio OVER 56.5||Top||14-45||Win||100||50 h 43 m||Show|
Ohio is coming off its first loss of the season and while we played against the Bobcats in that game, we will not backing them in what is considered a rebound spot as the line is hefty and they have not been able to blow teams away of late. Instead, we will be looking for a high-scoring game as Ohio heads home where all three games against FBS teams has sailed over the number that is posted for this game. The Bobcats and their opponents have averaged 68.7 ppg in those three games.
Eastern Michigan meanwhile is coming off yet another loss at Bowling Green to fall to 1-7 on the season and things are not going to get any easier here. The Eagles managed only three points against the Falcons and while the concern here could be the offense once again, it likely will not take a ton of points to send this one over the number. That is because the defense is even worse as Eastern Michigan is 112th in the country overall and 11th in points allowed, giving up 37.5 ppg.
Ohio had its worst game offensively on the season as it managed only 20 points but it did put up 464 yards of offense which was its fourth highest amount of the season. The problem was the Bobcats had to settle for field goals and also got stopped deep in Miami territory to end the game. The Bobcats are 33rd in total offense and 32nd in scoring offense, the latter being second in the MAC so moving the ball and scoring again will not be an issue. They are pretty average defensively, coming in 61st overall.
We are getting some excellent value in this total in my opinion and a lot of that is due to the results from last week. Eastern Michigan had only 27 total points in its last game after going over the total in three straight games prior to that. Meanwhile, Ohio and Miami put up 43 points in their game and that one stayed well below the number. The Bobcats have stayed under in two straight games although the prior game against Akron finished with 62 points but an extremely high total kept it under.
Eastern Michigan is 12-3 to the over in its last 15 games after coming off a game that stayed under the total and it is 5-0 to the over in its last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. This includes a perfect 3-0 to the over in that situation this season. The Bobcats meanwhile are 4-1 to the over in their last five games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. We are getting excellent value here and this one should have no issues going over. 10* Over (303) Eastern Michigan Eagles/(304) Ohio Bobcats
|10-26-12||Cincinnati v. Louisville OVER 52||Top||31-34||Win||100||34 h 6 m||Show|
Both Louisville and Cincinnati are two of the three remaining undefeated teams in the Big East Conference so this is a big game for both sides. The Cardinals are undefeated overall at 7-0 following a close win over South Florida last week. The offense continues to pile on the points as Louisville is averaging 32.4 ppg. On the other side, Cincinnati was undefeated until it lost at Toledo last week to fall to 5-1. That was the Bearcats first road game of the season.
Both games last week involving these two teams stayed under the total and we are seeing a big adjustment in the over/under this week and it adds value going the other way. It is even more prevalent when looking at the explosiveness of these offenses as Cincinnati is averaging 6.8 yppl while Louisville is averaging 6.1 yppl and to put those in perspective, one of the best offenses is the country, Oregon, is averaging 6.4 yppl. We should see some big plays on both sides here.
The defenses on both sides are pretty average even though the rankings are somewhat high. Louisville is ranked 31st in total defense which doesn't look very bad at all. However the Cardinals have played teams ranked 113th, 20th, 70th, 110th, 49th and 65th in total offense so the majority has been bad. The two best offenses they have faced are North Carolina (20th) and Pittsburgh (49th) and those two teams put up 34 and 35 points respectively against them. Cincinnati comes in 24th in total offense.
On the other side, the Bearcats defense is a respectable 37th in the country but they also have not played many offenses that can light it up. They only allowed 10 points against Pittsburgh but that was their first game of the season and Pittsburgh's second game and the Panthers have been much better since then. The best offense Cincinnati has faced was last week against Toledo and the Rockets put up 29 points which is the most it has allowed all season. Louisville has been average but does score a lot of points.
I do not think the defenses on either side has what it takes to completely shut down its opponent. Both teams possess mobile quarterbacks that can win with the arm or legs so they will be difficult to contain. Both teams fall into a simple yet solid situation as we play the over in conference games involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better. This situation is 168-98 (63.2 percent) to the over the last five seasons. We should see a very entertaining game Friday with plenty of points. 10* Over (107) Cincinnati Bearcats/(108) Louisville Cardinals
|08-30-12||Eastern Michigan v. Ball State OVER 56.5||Top||26-37||Win||100||83 h 38 m||Show|
MAC play starts early for Eastern Michigan and Ball St. and we should be in store for an entertaining game if you like scoring. Early in the college football season, units that are trying to replenish players take time to come together and we will be seeing that on both defensive sides here. Usually defenses are ahead of the offenses to start the season but that isn't the case for the Eagles and Cardinals as both offenses return a substantial portion of their starters from a season ago.
Ball State's offense that averaged 379.4 ypg a season ago virtually stays the same. The Cardinals bring back quarterback Keith Wenning following an outstanding sophomore season where he passed for 2,786 yards with 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while completing 64 percent of his passes. He loses his top two receivers but depth is plentiful. The top four running backs return as do four starters on the offensive line which is the most experienced unit in the country.
The Eagles ranked fourth in total defense in MAC action last year, allowing 355.1 ypg but they will be hard pressed to repeat that ranking this season as they return only five starters on the defense. The defensive line and secondary are both areas of concern. Defensive end Andy Malumba is the only returning player from the front four while cornerbacks Marline Pollard and Marcell Rose return to a secondary that could be tested at the safety spots.
Eastern Michigan will make up for the defensive shortcomings with a potent offense. The Eagles will be led with a strong rushing attack as they were ranked third among MAC teams rushing the football (218.3 ypg) and was 14th nationally last season. Six of the top seven running backs return but the big asset is that all five offensive linemen return. Quarterback Alex Gillett returns and he is coming off a very solid season and he should only be better as he did a lot of offseason work to improve.
Like the Eagles, Ball St. has a lot of shortcoming on defense. The Cardinals return only five starters and this is an even worse situation since they were at or near the bottom in most significant defensive categories last season. They return just one player on the defensive line so they will get pushed around by the Eagles all night. The biggest void however for Ball State's defense are at the two safety positions where underclassmen will be forced to jump in. All of this should lead to a ton of points Thursday night. 10* Over (137) Eastern Michigan Eagles/(138) Ball St. Cardinals
|01-07-12||SMU v. Pittsburgh UNDER 47.5||Top||28-6||Win||100||26 h 54 m||Show|
Pittsburgh is playing in the Compass Bowl for a second straight season. The Panthers defeated Kentucky in a low scoring game and I see another similar result to that. This is a pretty average offense coming in as Pittsburgh is 83rd in total offense and 69th in scoring offense and word is that the coaches plan on slowing things down even more and there will be more on that later. The Panthers total defense is ranked 40th overall and they have the personnel to slow down SMU.
The Mustangs incorporate a run and shoot offense under head coach June Jones but it is a wounded unit. Quarterback J.J. McDermott was decent as he is ranked 33rd in total offense but just 72nd in passing efficiency. He has two great receivers at his disposal but SMU lost running back Zach Line 10 games into the season after he put up 1,256 rushing yards and that is a big loss. The Mustangs defense finished 37th overall so this is a solid unit that held some tough C-USA offenses in check.
Pittsburgh lost head coach Todd Graham as he took the head coaching job at Arizona St. Defensive coordinator Keith Patterson takes over the head coaching duties for this game while quarterbacks coach Todd Dodge takes over as the interim offensive coordinator. They are both on the same page as they have come out with what their game plan is going to be and it favors a low scoring game. "We'll be a little more ball control, I think you will see that on Saturday. We will be a little bit different in our approach," Patterson said.
"We're going to try and take time off the clock and not necessarily be methodical in the way we do things, but ball control is going to be a little bit more of who we are," he said. "Our philosophy will be, 'Hey, let's play great defense and punting the football sometimes is not a bad play.' That is kind of the plan we will try to employ this Saturday." Dodge believes that its best chance to win is to possess the ball and keep the Mustangs offense off the field. He said he plans on using the short passing game.
Dodge said he has trimmed the play sheet to emphasize what quarterback Tino Sunseri does best. "I am a believer in 'less is more,' " he said. Pittsburgh is 14-4 to the under in its last 18 games away from home against teams averaging 250 or more passing ypg while going 11-2 to the under in its last 13 games coming off one or more straight overs. The Mustangs meanwhile are 17-6 to the under in their last 23 games away from home against teams completing 58 percent or more of their passes. 10* Under (265) SMU Mustangs/(266) Pittsburgh Panthers
|01-04-12||West Virginia v. Clemson OVER 62.5||Top||70-33||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
We have a rather big number here but we have a lot of solid contrarian angles to work with. It has been rare for both teams to see a number this high as West Virginia has had a total of 62 or higher only once while Clemson has had a total of 62 or higher only twice. Combined they went 0-3 to the under and only one of those games, Clemson and Wake Forest, was even close to cashing the over. This brings in our first contrarian angle as those three unders are actually keeping this number lower than it should be.
Recent results are also playing into this total. Clemson has gone under in its last five games and that brings up a situational angle as explained later. The thing about it is, the last four games in that run stayed under by 3.5 points, 4 points, 3.5 points and 5.5 points so they were very close to going over. West Virginia meanwhile has stayed under in each of its last three games and while they were a little off, the last game stayed under by just a point in the contest with South Florida.
Both of these offenses have potential to put up big numbers and put up big points. Combined, the Mountaineers and Tigers average over 68 ppg while putting up a total of 901.1 ypg which proves big numbers are more than capable. West Virginia put up 30 or more points in eight of 12 games while Clemson did so in nine of 13 games. Obviously getting those together will likely cash a ticket so it will likely come down to the defenses and how resistant they will be.
Together, West Virginia and Clemson are allowing 52.4 ppg but that average is skewed. The Tigers have allowed 30 or more points in six of 13 games including five of their last seven games while the Mountaineers have allowed 30 or more points five times. Those are fewer than we would like but overall, Clemson is 62nd in scoring defense while West Virginia is 63rd in scoring defense. The offenses faced has played a big part in this as both teams have gone against offenses much worse than what they will face Wednesday.
Clemson's under run puts it into a solid situation as we play the over in the second half of the season with teams that are coming off four or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams that are allowing between 21 and 28. This situation is 34-7 (82.9 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. West Virginia meanwhile is 21-9 to the over in its last 30 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest so both sides have solid angles on their side for this contrarian total play. 10* Over (261) West Virginia Mountaineers/(262) Clemson Tigers
|12-24-11||Nevada v. Southern Mississippi OVER 61.5||Top||17-24||Loss||-110||80 h 33 m||Show|
Nevada brings in a pretty solid defense this season as it is ranked 52nd overall and 58th in scoring but those averages are definitely skewed. The Wolf Pack allowed 14 points or fewer four times and seven points or fewer three times but those games came against offenses ranked 81st, 113th, 130th and 107th in scoring offense, with those latter three being the three games of allowing seven points or less. Southern Mississippi brings in the 14th ranked scoring offense so this will be a test.
Southern Mississippi brings a defense that is even better as it is ranked 31st overall and 29th in scoring but even its numbers are skewed based on the competition. A game against Southeastern Louisiana helped as the Golden Eagles allowed just 285 yards and six points while the other big difference was a game with Memphis where they allowed only 181 total yards and seven points. Memphis finished 116th in total offense and 115th in scoring offense. Nevada is fifth and 31st in total and scoring offense respectively.
Both defenses also played more solid at home than on the road as combined, they gave up a total of 833 ypg and 60.7 ppg. Those points are right around where this total sits but again, some of those games on each side came against some very average offensive teams. The offensive numbers on both sides also decrease away from home but they are still potent as the average yardage is over 900 ypg and over 63 ppg. Many even more important is that there is balance on both sides between the run and pass.
There is something about this bowl game that produces a ton of points and a lot of that can be based on the distractions that surround the game. Only once in nine years has the game finished with fewer points than what this year's total is and while the history may seem meaningless, the conference affiliations have a lot to do with it as well. The average total points scored in this game is just shy of 81 and while the over will be a very popular public play, it is the way to go once again with this matchup.
Both teams fall into a solid situation based on results of the offenses. We play the over where the total is between 56.5 and 63 with two teams that are averaging 440 or more ypg on the season after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 37-10 (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Southern Mississippi is 15-5 to the over its last 20 games against teams averaging 21 or more ppg while Nevada is 11-5 to the over in its last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in its last game. 10* Over (213) Nevada Wolf Pack/(214) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
|12-02-11||UCLA v. Oregon OVER 65.5||31-49||Win||100||48 h 4 m||Show|
The inaugural Pac 12 Championship doesn't look to be overly competitive with the Ducks favored by 32 points but that does not mean it won't be exciting. If you like points that is. I think we are getting a ton of value in this over. Half of Oregon's games this season have seen a higher posted total including four of those that have taken place in Eugene. This is the highest total UCLA has seen but that is not a bad thing. The Bruins have gone under in three straight games including getting shutout last week and that helps with the value.
Oregon possesses one of the top offenses in the country and it should have no problem naming its score here. The Ducks have scored 45 or more points six times this season and some of those were against some fairly solid defenses. UCLA is not one of those. Oregon has faced seven defenses ranked 61st or worst in the country and it has averaged 48.1 ppg in those contests. The Bruins defense comes in ranked 84th overall and 87th in scoring defense so it should not show much resistance here.
On the other side, the Ducks defense is not that strong. Oregon is ranked 64th in total defense, yielding 384.7 ypg on the season and that is very average for a teams that was once in the hunt for the National Championship. The Ducks have done a better job of limiting points but they have allowed 27 or more points in half of their games and if UCLA can come close to sniffing that number, this game should fly over the total. The Bruins offense has a very good shot at that.
Overall, the Bruins are ranked 56th in total offense and while inconsistent, they have been able to move the ball. They have gained more than 350 yards in eight games this season, averaging 27.6 ppg. And that average is skewed. Last week against USC, UCLA put up 385 total yards but were shutout and that was an aberration because it had numerous opportunities in the redzone but the Trojans are a much better defense than Oregon. Take that shutout out and the average of the other seven games is 31.6 ppg.
The weather can play havoc this time of year and that is why we come out later with some of these games but the forecast for Friday night is looking very good so weather will not be an issue. The Ducks have seen the over go 10-2 in their last 12 home games, averaging close to 72 points in the process while the over is 23-10 in their last games as a favorite. The Bruins have not seen as many high-scoring games however when playing top teams, they have gone over four of five times when underdogs of 10.5 points or more. 10* Over (307) UCLA Bruins/(308) Oregon Ducks
|10-25-11||Troy v. Florida International OVER 55.5||20-23||Loss||-110||11 h 17 m||Show|
The Troy offense has taken a big step backwards the last couple weeks but I expect it to bounce back here as it is much better that what has been on display. The Trojans put up 27 total points against UL-Lafayette and UL-Monroe which is a complete aberration. They were ranked 18th in the country in total offense heading into those games and are now ranked 54th in that category. Look for this offense to get untracked against FIU that has allowed 31 or more points in three of its last four games.
The Golden Panthers passing defense has been shredded this season, giving up 231.3 ypg which is 71st in the nation. This is the best passing offense it has seen with Duke coming in a close second and the Blue Devils poured 335 passing yards on them three games back. Troy is 16th in the country in passing offense and quarterback Corey Robinson lit them up for 299 yards passing a year ago but he was hurt by two interceptions. Coming off a horrendous game last week, expect another strong effort against the Trojans.
On the other side, the Golden Panthers are 67th in total offense and 49th in passing offense and they possess one of the games most exciting wide receivers in T.Y. Hilton who is averaging 105.4 ypg, good for 14th best in the nation. He is now back to full health and has had three straight very productive games. Florida International had put up at least 27 points in each of its last three games prior to last week as the offense sputtered and had to settle for three field goals.
Troy's passing defense is not good. The Trojans are 113th in passing defense this season and it goes up against quarterback Wesley Carroll who is second the Sun Belt Conference in passing efficiency. Last season, he threw for 220 yards on only eight completions and Hilton went wild for 233 total yards. I expect Troy to be better this time around based on many factors coming in but the Golden Panthers will still have enough on offense to put in their share of points for the over.
Both teams have gone under the total in each of their last two games which sets up good value for the over for tonight. Troy is 20-8 to the over in its last 28 games as an underdog and when playing on the road it is 15-6 to the over in its last 21 games. The Trojans are 6-2-1 to the over after scoring 20 points or less in its last game while Florida International is 10-3 to the over in its last 13 games against teams penalized for 60 or more ypg. Expect to see some fireworks tonight. 8* Over (101) Troy Trojans/(102) Florida International Golden Panthers
|10-18-11||Florida International v. Arkansas State OVER 54||Top||16-34||Loss||-110||10 h 44 m||Show|
Tonight's game has the makings of a shootout. Both Florida International and Arkansas St. have explosive offensive units that have big play capabilities that will be facing defenses that have little resistance to stop them. Both teams are coming off unders in their most recent games nine days ago and that helps us out with the value as does the season long results. Arkansas St. is 5-1 to the under on the year while the Golden Panthers have hit the over only once in their last five games.
The Red Wolves are 29th in the country in total offense, averaging 441.2 ypg and the majority of that success comes in the passing game where they are averaging 303.5 ypg, good for 15th in the country. Quarterback Ryan Aplin, who has thrown for 1,646 yards this season, is also 15th in the country in total offense and he is completing 66 percent of his passes. His main target is wide receiver Dwayne Frampton, who also averages 7.8 catches per game while averaging 101 ypg, 24th in the nation.
The Golden Panthers defense has been shredded this season, giving up 245.3 ypg which is 87th in the nation. This is the best passing offense is has seen with Duke coming in a close second and the Blue Devils poured 335 passing yards on them two games back. Florida International shut down Aplin last season but this is a much better unit this time around that is a year more experienced. "No one's really slowed them down, let alone stopped them," FIU head coach Mario Cristobal said of Arkansas St.'s passing game.
On the other side, the Golden Panthers are 53rd in total offense and 43rd in passing offense and they possess one of the games most exciting wide receivers in T.Y. Hilton who is averaging 106.8 ypg, good for 12th best in the nation. He is coming off one of his most productive games of the season against Duke and that was with a gimpy hamstring but he is now back to full health. Florida International has put up at least 27 points in each of its last three games.
Arkansas St. possesses a better defense than the Golden Panthers but the liability is with the passing defense and it goes up against quarterback Wesley Carroll which leads the Sun Belt Conference in passing efficiency. The Over is 13-3 in the Golden Panthers last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record and the over is 6-0 in their last six road games against teams averaging 425 pr more ypg. The Over is 5-1 in the Red Wolves last six games as a home favorite. 10* Over (301) Florida International Golden Panthers/(302) Arkansas St. Red Wolves
|09-23-11||Central Florida v. BYU OVER 43||17-24||Loss||-110||59 h 51 m||Show|
BYU's offense has been abysmal to start the season which is a surprise after the finish it had last season and returning nine starters from the unit heading into this year. The Cougars averaged 42.4 ppg over their last five games after scoring no more than 25 points through their first eight games. That was a direct correlation to quarterback Jake Heaps who started to get comfortable at the position as a true freshman. BYU is ranked 104th in total offense after three games while scoring no more than 16 points in a game.
That being said, facing off against the second ranked defense in the nation might not seem like the optimal time to bust out but the contrarian angle is giving us the situation. The Knights have allowed only 20 total points on the season and are allowing just 166 ypg through three games. They have had the luxury of facing FCS Charleston Southern as well as FIU and BC, ranked 101st and 102nd respectively in total offense. Even though the Cougars are currently ranked lower, that is where the value comes into play.
Each of the posted totals in the games for BYU has come down each time, going from 54 to 49 to 46 to 43. This is the lowest posted total for a BYU game since they had an over/under of 43 against New Mexico back in November of 2004. Granted, times and schemes change but this is excellent value. Meanwhile Central Florida had an over/under of 51 last week against FIU so a drop of eight points from one game to the next is a huge adjustment and will prove to be too much of an adjustment.
Heaps and offensive coordinator Brandon Doman had a conversation about the current state of the Cougars' offense. Both are bewildered by the anemic results to this point, but both are determined to get things fixed. "I think it's going to grow us closer," Heaps said of that conversation. "It's not just us, it's our whole offense and we have to figure it out and put it all together. I have great confidence we will." First off they need to run the ball better which will open up the passing game, currently 43rd in passing offense.
Seniors J.J. Di Luigi and Bryan Kariya and sophomore Joshua Quezada have struggled to get a running game going but it should come around as all were here last year and the three averaged 152 rushing ypg last season. On the other side, Central Florida has regressed on offense but BYU has regressed on defense over each teams last three games. All of this being said, the numbers point to a low scoring game but this is where the bounce angle comes into play and we see a much higher scoring game than expected. 9* Over (303) Central Florida Knights/(304) BYU Cougars
|09-15-11||LSU v. Mississippi State UNDER 48.5||Top||19-6||Win||100||52 h 45 m||Show|
Mississippi St. has gone over the total in each of its first two games and neither were even close as the Bulldogs went over by 22.5 points against Memphis and over by 18 points against Auburn. The total this week is the lowest yet but it is still overinflated in my opinion based on the recent results. Going back to last season, Mississippi St. has scored 31 or more points in five straight games but those all came against teams that were horrible on defense and that changes on Thursday.
LSU went over its only lone lined game against Oregon as it surpassed the total by nearly two touchdowns. The Tigers managed 40 points in that game but a lot of the scoring came by way of Oregon turnovers and the offense managed only 273 total yards of offense against the Ducks. The Tigers did come back last week by putting up 400 yards of offense but that was against FCS team Northwestern St. the offense is still missing some key components and is far from a potent unit.
The Mississippi St. offensive line is one of the most experienced units on the team, but that group is banged up. Senior center Quentin Saulsberry left Saturday's game with a knee sprain, and senior left tackle James Carmon was carted off the field after a leg injury. Mississippi St. head coach Dan Mullen said neither would need surgery, and that Saulsberry could be ready to play against LSU. Still, both being hobbled is a big blow for the Bulldogs offense that needs to be at full strength to slow down the LSU defense.
This game should be dictated by both defenses. The Bulldogs finished 21st in scoring defense last season and have seven starters back . According to Football Outsiders, against Oregon, LSU had eight drives start in its own territory, and only one of those drives crossed midfield. The Tigers scored 27 points on drives that started in the opponent's territory in the game. Mississippi St.'s defense has faced 26 possessions that started on the opponent's side of the field and only five of those drives crossed midfield.
On the other side, the Tigers also have seven starters back on defense which finished 11th in scoring a season ago. This defense is fast and athletic and will be able to again control the tempo of the game. Both teams fall into a great totals situation. Play on the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 after outgaining an opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game, game between two teams with eight or more offensive starters returning. This situation is 59-24 (71.1%) to the under the last 10 seasons. 10* Under (101) LSU Tigers/(102) Mississippi St. Bulldogs
|01-06-11||Middle Tenn State v. Miami OVER 48.5||Top||21-35||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
This will be going against what has taken place most of this season for both teams but that is where the value comes into play. This is a rather low number for a bowl game and even lower with two teams whose defenses are not all that impressive. It can be argued that the offenses are not very good either but they have improved more recently and more on that later. This is just the eighth total all of bowl season that has been under 50 and the previous seven have been 6-1 to the over, averaging 54.4 ppg. Middle Tennessee has a defense ranked 70th overall and 67th in scoring. It has had its share of decent games, allowing 14 points or fewer three times but it also allowed 23 or more points in those other nine games and a lot of these games came against some very average offenses. Overall the defense allowed 27.5 ppg and that came against offenses averaging only 23.4 ppg and the Blue Raiders allowed over 30 more ypg than what the offenses averaged throughout the season. The Miami defense performed better this season as it finished 28th in total defense but 47th in scoring defense, allowing an average of 23.4 ppg. This came against offenses averaging 23.7 ppg so it was right about spot on. The RedHawks allowed 14 points or fewer four times but allowed 21 points or more eight times. Nine of their 13 games came against teams ranked 81st or worse and Miami allowed 18.6 ppg while allowing 34.2 ppg in the other games against better offenses. Middle Tennessee fits into the latter group. The offenses average a combined 47.4 ppg which is obviously a little below what this total is but both teams did perform better down the stretch. It took Middle Tennessee a while to get going on offense following quarterback Dwight Dasher
|01-03-11||Virginia Tech v. Stanford UNDER 59||Top||12-40||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
Stanford and Virginia Tech have both put together great seasons. Virginia Tech has won 11 consecutive games after opening the season with losses to Boise State and James Madison. Stanford meanwhile lost only once all season and that came against Oregon which is playing for the BCS Championship. The offenses are getting the pub for this game but this one will be decided by the defenses and those units are pretty underrated and that is giving us some value in this total. Looking at the Hokies defense and you see a unit that is arguably down from previous editions as it is ranked 37th in total defense compared to 12th last season and seventh in 2008. A decline was expected with it being a very young defense but it has improved as the season has progressed. The Hokies were 55th in total defense after five weeks as well as 54th in scoring defense, which is our main concern here. They are currently 15th in scoring defense after allowing more than 21 points only once in their last eight games. Playing in the Pac Ten is usually not a good thing for defenses but Stanford did not seem to be bothered this season. After finishing 90th in the nation in total defense and 69th in scoring defense, the Cardinal improved to 22nd and 11th respectively this season which is a huge turnaround. They allowed 52 points in that Oregon game and other than that, they gave up more than 24 points only two other times while allowing 17 points or fewer on eight different occasions. The Hokies were second in the country in interceptions with 22 and had an opponents
|12-30-10||Washington v. Nebraska OVER 52.5||Top||19-7||Loss||-110||14 h 10 m||Show|
Nebraska might have a tough time getting up for this game as the Huskers were so close to a BCS Bowl game but now are in the Holiday Bowl for a second straight season. With motivation in question, it is hard to back the Huskers and that usually flows down to the defense which means Washington could have success with Jake Locker and company on offense that will be out to reverse the horrible effort put forth in the first meeting this season. I can definitely see the Huskies the more motivated unit. On the other side, even if Nebraska is not highly motivated, it should be able to trample the Washington defense just like the first meeting. On the Huskers offensive line, all five players started all 13 games this season with four of those weighing more than 305 pounds. On the other side, the Washington defensive line is severely undersized. Injuries will force coaches to use their seventh different stating combination this season while three players weigh 253 pounds or less. The value is on a high scoring game based on the matchup but also based on the first meeting. The total back in September was 51 and the game finished with 77 total points scored and now we are seeing an increase of only two points as of Wednesday afternoon. That could go up higher but it won
|12-29-10||Illinois v. Baylor OVER 62.5||Top||38-14||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
Surprisingly this is the smallest total of the day and I think it very well should be the highest scoring game of the day. Both Baylor and Illinois bring potent offenses to the table while the defenses are anything but strong. The Illinois offense is unbalanced as it has a very strong rushing game and a weak passing game but the Bears are going to have trouble defending. The Baylor defense had a worse season and it was really bad toward the end when it allowed an average of 50 ppg and 538.7 ypg over its last three games. Michigan
|12-27-10||Georgia Tech v. Air Force UNDER 56.5||7-14||Win||100||5 h 46 m||Show|
Neither of these defenses are spectacular but each does have an edge against today
|12-24-10||Tulsa v. Hawaii OVER 73||62-35||Win||100||9 h 14 m||Show|
The Over/Under records of these teams do not show any edges either way but that is due to matchups that each team was put with. This matchup however shows a clear edge one way and even though the total is adjusted because of it, it still is not going to matter. Both Tulsa and Hawaii have had one total this season in the 70
|12-18-10||Ohio v. Troy State OVER 57||21-48||Win||100||76 h 26 m||Show|
This is probably the least attractive primetime game of the bowl season as it resembles one of those Tuesday night games that were featured on ESPN toward the end of the regular season. However bad the matchup is, it could turn into a very entertaining game as the offenses will have big advantages against the opposing defenses. This is the highest total that has been put into place in an Ohio game this season but that means little as the matchups are going to dictate the points put up. The Trojans defense has been a liability all season and there is no reason to think it will shut down the Bobcats. The defense has had problems stopping the run and will have its hands full trying to slow a diverse and talented Ohio ground game. Troy allowed 419.2 ypg on the season including 171.7 ypg rushing and those are 93rd and 80th respectively in the country as well as sixth and fourth in the Sun Belt Conference. The MAC is not much better, if at all, than the SBC but the Trojans showed they have trouble stopping most teams. Bobcats
|12-03-10||Illinois v. Fresno State OVER 58||Top||23-25||Loss||-110||32 h 14 m||Show|
There is not a whole lot to play for on either side as both teams are already bowl eligible with positioning the only thing remaining. That means a lot more chances taken from each side which leads to more big plays and more points. Illinois has gone over the total in five straight games and that usually leads to value with the under nut the value on the over has not subsided in my opinion based on the Illini going out of conference in a regular season finale. Fresno St. had won three straight games before falling to Nevada and Boise St. in back-to-back contests but it was able to rebound, barely, last week at home against Idaho in a 23-20 victory. Similar to Illinois, the Bulldogs do not have anything on the line here so I can see them taking some chances before heading into the postseason. Despite playing one of the hottest offenses around this week, this total is the lowest Fresno St. has seen in its last four games which I feel adds tremendous value to the over. After scoring six points in a 26-6 loss at Michigan St., the Illini were ranked 84th in total offense and 92nd in scoring offense. Since then, Illinois has averaged 442 total yards and 46.8 ppg in its five games and have moved to 57th in total offense and 29th in scoring offense. Those games did in fact come against the lower-tiered teams in the Big Ten but Fresno St. is certainly no powerhouse on defense and the Bulldogs would be grouped with those same teams meaning the Illini can keep that offense rolling. As far as the Bulldogs offense, not a lot has gone right as they have managed only 23 points in their last two games. They were shutout against Boise St., the fourth best defense in the country, so that was no surprise but scoring 23 points against Idaho was a surprise as the Vandals have the 92nd ranked defense in the country. Illinois started strong on defense, allowing only 16.75 ppg through Week Nine but over the last three games, it has allowed 44 ppg and who can forget that Michigan game. Good defenses don
|09-05-10||Tulsa v. East Carolina OVER 59||Top||49-51||Win||100||79 h 15 m||Show|
We always take a look at the home underdog first, especially in conference games and even more so in openers that are within the conference. That being, the home underdog has questions coming into the season and while some may have been answered during fall practices, they are not the right ones to be looking at a play on the Pirates right now. The defense brought back only two starters from last season and things are not getting better heading into the regular season. The defense lost the entire front seven to graduation and while there is experience coming in, there is not a lot of experience. The defensive line has already been hit with injuries and players are being shuffled including 215 pound linebacker Marke Powell being moved to defensive end. Senior Wes Pittman, a former walk-on wide receiver, is now going to start at linebacker. Basically, it is a mess right now and the unit that stopped the potent Tulsa offense will have trouble doing so now. The Golden Hurricane bring back nine starters to an offense that finished 35th in the nation in total offense and 44th in scoring offense. Those rankings are not bad but considering Tulsa led the country in total offense in 2007 and 2008, last season was a major disappointment. The good news is that most everyone is back including quarterback G.J. Kinne as well as six of the top seven receivers. The offensive line gave up 43 sacked, second most in the nation, but the experience will pay dividends in 2010. On the other side, the Tulsa defense has no where to go but up. The Golden Hurricane finished 85th overall and 74th in scoring and there is not a whole lot of reasoning to believe there will be a ton of improvement. They do bring back three of the top four tacklers and cornerback Charles Davis returns to the lineup after missing last year with a torn ACL. Even with this, I don
|09-04-10||Miami Ohio v. Florida OVER 52.5||Top||12-34||Loss||-110||92 h 35 m||Show|
The days when Miami Ohio used to rule the MAC are long gone as the RedHawks have gone 2-10 or worse in three of their last four years. They should be a much better team this season with 19 starters returning but playing a team from the SEC is a different challenge. Actually they played Kentucky last season and that resulted in a 42-0 loss but this is obviously a bigger step up in competition. In order to play the total, we have to figure out what will be the matchup edges on both sides. As for the RedHawks, I expect this offense to be much better while the weakness of the Gators is their defense. Last season they were forced to start a freshman at quarterback and while Zac Dysert threw more interceptions than touchdowns, he did throw for more that 2,600 yards while completing 61.6 percent of his passes. His upside is huge and he has his entire offensive line back as well as the running backs. Florida is going to tough to penetrate but with only five starters back, it enables some early opportunities. As for the Florida offense, it is not going to miss a beat with the loss of Tim Tebow at quarterback. John Brantley has never made a start he is a player and he is going to flourish in this offense. As a backup last season, he completed 75 percent of his passes for 410 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He gets to play behind three returning starters on a massive offensive line as well as having playmakers at running back and wide receiver to take off some of the pressure. Even though there are only six starters back on offense, the RedHawks will have no answers for the Florida speed on offense. Miami has nine players back on a defense but this was a defense that finished 107th in the nation in scoring defense and that came against a cupcake schedule for the most part. While the offense was unable to run the football, the defense for Miami had trouble stopping it, as opponents gashed the RedHawks for 186.9 ypg. That is going to set up the pass in a big way. Since Urban Meyer took over as head coach, the Gators has piled up the points in the first two weeks of the season prior to their game with Tennessee. In the first five years under Meyer, Florida has averaged 45.7 ppg over those 10 games. This is actually somewhat skewed as the competition has been weak with the exception of one game against Miami-Florida where it scored 26 points. Take that out and the average goes to 47.9 ppg in the other nine games and Saturday
|01-02-10||Michigan State v. Texas Tech OVER 59.5||Top||31-41||Win||100||29 h 17 m||Show|
This still has the potential to be one of the most entertaining games of the bowl season despite all of the off-field issues that have taken precedence on both sides. Michigan St. was clobbered in its season finale against Penn St. and a huge altercation between students has led to numerous suspensions for this game although the majority of those are with players who had not contributed a whole lot. On the other side, the Mike Leach fiasco has brought Texas Tech into the national spotlight and for all of the wrong reasons. His firing will not have a big impact on this game as his suspension came far enough back that preparations were already in place. Defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill will lead the Red Raiders bit don
|01-01-10||Ohio State v. Oregon UNDER 50.5||Top||26-17||Win||100||26 h 44 m||Show|
The way for Ohio St. to win this game is to avoid a shootout while the Ducks want to get the Buckeyes into an up and down the field type of game. Which ever team wins that battle will likely win the game but more importantly here, it will provide the totals victory. The defense is likely to dictate this outcome. Ohio St. has a lot of team speed on defense and that can cause a lot of problems for Oregon. Namely, because any little glitches that take place will completely take Oregon out sync and that is how this offense thrives. Granted, the Buckeyes have not seen an offense like this on the season as the Big Ten just doesn
|01-01-10||Northwestern v. Auburn OVER 55||Top||35-38||Win||100||20 h 38 m||Show|
This number seems very low to me. We have two strong offenses going up against two defenses that struggle against what the opposition brings. Northwester did not play hardly any teams with an offense as balanced as the Tigers are. They faced Wisconsin, which is probably the closest comparison and allowed 31 points. Playing in the Big Ten, the Wildcats did not come across totals this high very often. As a matter of fact, only three times was there a total of 50 or more and Northwestern went 2-1 to the
|12-31-09||Tennessee v. Virginia Tech UNDER 50||Top||14-37||Loss||-115||21 h 37 m||Show|
This is definitely the marquee matchup of New Year
|12-30-09||Nebraska Cornhuskers v. Arizona Wildcats OVER 40.5||Top||33-0||Loss||-110||27 h 42 m||Show|
**9** CFB HOLIDAY BOWL TOTALS *DOMINATOR* There is a lot of credit being given to these defenses and I
|12-28-09||Texas A&M v. Georgia OVER 66||Top||20-44||Loss||-110||30 h 43 m||Show|
**10** CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH **MONDAY** This has the makings of an up and down the field track meet and I really do not see either defense stopping the opposing offenses. The last time we saw Texas A&M, the Aggies hung 39 points on Texas which was 15 more points than the second largest point total that the Longhorns allowed and more points than Texas had allowed in its previous three games combined. The point is, if the Aggies, who have scored 31 or more points in nine of their 12 games, can score at will against the eighth ranked scoring defense in the nation, what can they do against the 70th ranked scoring defense? Georgia is having a horrible season on that side of the ball and take away a shutout against FCS Tennessee tech and 10 points allowed against Vanderbilt, 113th in the nation in scoring offense, and the year was even worse. On the other side, the Bulldogs offense was inconsistent to start the season but finished strong with at least 30 points scored in three of the final four games. Overall the offense finished just 73rd overall and 59th in scoring but the running game caught fire over the last third of the season and it will have no problem running through the Aggies, similar to Texas scorching them for 293 yards on 39 carries (7.5 ypc). Hat sets up passing game for the Bulldogs and that can flourish even more against the inept Texas A&M passing defense. The Aggies finished last in the Big XII in both scoring defense and total defense and those ranking were 104th and 107th in the nation respectively. Texas A&M was either really good or really bad and the latter outshines the former. It allowed 19 points or fewer four times but the other eight games saw at least 30 points scored in each with and average of 44.3 ppg given up in those contests. Big numbers on both sides have put this number pretty high but the way these teams match up against one another shows this number is not close to big enough. They also fall into a spectacular situation. Play the