|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-16-19||Tennessee v. Kentucky -3||Top||69-86||Win||100||27 h 9 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #732 Kentucky over Tennessee (8p.m., Saturday, February 16 ESPN) This will be the toughest environment Tennessee plays in all year long and I just feel Kentucky needs this game more. The Wildcats are coming off a controversial loss last time out against LSU and they will be hungry to win this game. The Volunteers are going to win the SEC but I am not sold that they are the best team in the country. Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. They have more talent than does Tennessee and I do not believe the visitor can make enough shots from the arc to win this road game. Kentucky pulls away late to win by 6-8 points.
|02-12-19||Celtics +7 v. 76ers||Top||112-109||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
The Celtics have received a lot of bad press lately because they have struggled on the court and the Sixers did well at the Trade Deadline so they have gotten some good press. That has skewed the line in this game. We think this number should be around 4, and the Celtics should be very motivated here in this matchup. Boston has won and covered in six of the last seven meetings in this series, and they come in with two days rest after that very embarrassing loss to the Clippers where they blew a big lead. We think that they put their best foot forward here tonight.
|02-12-19||Michigan State -1 v. Wisconsin||Top||67-59||Win||100||8 h 20 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #621 Michigan State over Wisconsin (7p.m., Tuesday, February 12 ESPN 2) Michigan State has the bodies to offset Ethan Happ in the post and I am just not sure if Wisconsin can make enough perimeter shots to win this game. Wisconsin has already lost two home games this season during conference play and they have all but lost their chance to win the conference after losing over the weekend at Michigan. The line on this game is very telling, as Wisconsin opened has a 2.5 favorite only to have the Spartans favored at release time. The Spartans bounced back in a big way against Minnesota over the weekend. Michigan State is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 conference games. Wisconsin is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on Tuesday.
|02-10-19||Suns v. Kings -9||Top||104-117||Win||100||7 h 44 m||Show|
The Suns put together a competitive game every few games or so, and last time out they played well in a cover vs. the Warriors. Now they are in a letdown spot against a Kings team that won’t get the Suns too excited like the defending champs did. Despite some very generous lines from the oddsmakers, this team has covered only three of their last nine games. And despite generous numbers from the bookies all season, this team is in the Bottom 5 ATS teams this season. The Kings are playing well and have won four of five. They are proving they belong in the playoff picture when former Kings teams would have started folding by now. They have played exceptionally well at home, where they have won and covered in seven of their last eight overall, and that slate included some very solid teams. Sacramento is the third-best ATS team this season. And they are a very impressive 7-1 at home against sub-.500 clubs. They are 14-4 ATS overall against bad teams, and they normally take care of business against bad clubs, especially at home, where they have covered nine of 10 overall.
|02-09-19||Nebraska v. Purdue -10||Top||62-81||Win||100||26 h 28 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #750 Purdue over Nebraska (8:30p.m., Saturday, February 9 BTN) We have gone against Nebraska the last two games and see no reason for change course on Saturday night in West Lafayette. This Cornhusker team is shot and will enter this game have lost 6 straight games by over 9 points per game. This team cannot score points and the odds makers still have not caught on to how bad they are playing. Isaac Copeland was a lost they cannot overcome, and they have a lame duck coach with a veteran team that is just playing out the string. Nebraska is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss in their previous game. Purdue has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Until proven otherwise we are going to keep fading Nebraska.
|02-09-19||Hornets -2.5 v. Hawks||Top||129-120||Win||100||7 h 1 m||Show|
We think that this line is a couple points too short tonight. Atlanta has played much better than expected this season but the Hornets are a much better ballclub, and they should be able to win this one comfortably. The Hornets come in off two straight losses, to much better teams, so they won’t take this game for granted tonight. They have covered in five of the last seven matchups in this series, so they match up well here. Atlanta is 2-8 ATS at home against teams that have a sub-.500 record, so they normally underwhelm in situations like this. The Hornets are just a game up in the Eastern Conference playoff picture and they need to win games like this to keep their playoff standing. This is the easiest game of their current four-game road trip. This team isn’t very good on the road. But they know they need to beat bad opponents like this on the road, and we think they will put their best foot forward tonight.
|02-08-19||Bucks -7.5 v. Mavs||Top||122-107||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
The Mavs have traded a bunch of starters over the trade deadline. This team will be fine in the short term and probably really good by next year. But in the very short term this team is in for some rough patches. They have to fit these new players in the lineup and tinker around with rotations. The Bucks are a bad team to try these experiments out on. The Bucks have won 11 of their last 12 games and they are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. And this team is not only winning but also covering lines. They are 8-3-1 ATS during this current surge. They put up 148 points last time out against the Wizards, and an offense can’t be running much better than this one is right now. Dallas has been one of the best betting teams this season and they have been covering a lot of lines lately also. But the trade deadline changed the makeup of this team and it might take a few games to figure things out. And Doncic is questionable tonight for Dallas. If he is not at 100% that hurts this team a lot. We think there’s a great chance for a double-digit win here for the road team.
|02-07-19||Clippers v. Pacers -6||Top||92-116||Win||100||7 h 55 m||Show|
The Clippers are a team we have used plenty this season and they have been one of the better ATS teams in the league. But with the trade deadline moves this team made it’s clear they are tanking on this season now. They sent Harris, their best player, and a couple glue guys, to the Sixers for mostly draft picks. Management sent a clear message to the players that this is a lost season, and what was one of the deepest benches in the NBA has been gutted a bit. The Clips are in the midst of a long road trip and we just don’t see the players rising up to play hard in this one. They needed big comebacks to beat Detroit and Charlotte recently and they should have never been in that big of a hole to begin with. They played a real lackluster game on Sunday in Toronto. Indiana seems to be adapting well to life after Oladipo and they have won three straight entering this game. They played one of their best games of the season last time out vs. the Lakers, and we think they come into this game very confident and we see this as a potential double-digit win for the home team.
|02-06-19||Hornets v. Mavs -5.5||Top||93-99||Win||100||8 h 11 m||Show|
The Mavs are by far the best betting team this season at 32-19-1, and they don’t really move the needle with the general betting public due to the lack of big names on the roster. But this team has been easy to trust this season, and we will back them again here Wednesday. These teams played last month in Charlotte and the Mavs recorded one of the biggest blowouts on the NBA season, and we know they match up well in this contest. Dallas comes into this one with three nights rest and the Hornets played last night so they enter on a back-to-back. They looked awful in the second half in giving back a big lead to the Clippers, and we think they will have a hangover effect here. Dallas is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven and the oddsmakers just keep posting value lines with this team. We will take advantage again tonight.
|02-03-19||Clippers +10.5 v. Raptors||Top||103-121||Loss||-105||5 h 33 m||Show|
The Clippers are being punished too much for the back-to-back here. We think that they can handle it. This team is 5-4 ATS on the second end of a back-to-back, so they are better than average in this situation. This squad is all about team basketball and they normally put in a full team effort. They sure did on Saturday as they mounted a huge comeback at Detroit. That just shows that this team never gives up. They don’t have any household names on the roster, but there is a lot of talent here. These players play unselfishly and they seem to like playing together and are well coached. We think they will keep this one close on Sunday. The Raptors have been awful when laying big points. They are 7-12 ATS this season when laying nine or more points. They have been overrated by the oddsmakers all season and are one of the worst betting teams in the NBA after their hot start. This team came back down to earth a bit but the oddsmakers never adjusted. The Clippers haven’t been big dogs like this often, but they are 2-0 ATS this season when getting 8 or more points. Toronto has failed to cover in three straight games and in six of their last nine. Besides that head-scratcher vs. Atlanta the Clippers have been playing very well. And in the tough Western Conference they need every game badly. Not sure they can win this outright, but we expect a close game here and this is too many points!
|02-02-19||Lakers v. Warriors -11||Top||101-115||Win||100||8 h 57 m||Show|
These teams met in LA about two weeks ago and the Warriors delivered a beatdown by almost 20 points. LeBron was out, of course, in that one, but the Lakers shot 50% from the floor and could not even come close to Golden State, who is in top form right now. LeBron is back, but he is still integrating himself into the lineup and he is not 100% healthy by his own admission. The Warriors have been playing flawless basketball lately, but they hit a speedbump last time in a home loss to Philly. We will give them a mulligan on that one and we expect to come out fired up in that one. Judging by the last time these teams met, the Lakers bring out the best in the Warriors kind of like the Clippers used to when Paul and Griffin were on the team. And even if they are up big they will still play hard and keep trying to run up the score. All signs point to a blowout in this one.
|02-02-19||Nebraska v. Illinois +3.5||Top||64-71||Win||100||20 h 58 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #650 Illinois over Nebraska (2:15p.m., Saturday, February 3 BTN) Nebraska is shot and injuries and this 4-game losing streak have all but ended their chances for an NCAA Tournament bid. They have lost 4 straight games and have not been very competitive in their last two games against Ohio State and Wisconsin. Both were home losses in which they were favored like they are in this game. The Illini are still in rebuilding mode under Brad Underwood but they have shown some flashes of late beating Maryland last week and pounding Minnesota at home on January 16. But this play is more about going against Nebraska, as they have a coach on the hot seat and are becoming one of the most disappointing teams in the country that had expectations this season. Nebraska has failed to cover the spread in 4 straight Big 10 games. Illinois gets out to a good start and takes this game down to the wire earning a two-point victory despite being an underdog.
|02-01-19||Grizzlies v. Hornets -6||Top||92-100||Win||100||7 h 47 m||Show|
Charlotte, like many teams in the NBA, is much better at home than on the road. They have played a road-heavy schedule lately, and the results have been predictable, so bettor confidence is down with this team. But they are home tonight where they are 17-8 and have a winning ATS record as well (Memphis is 8-18 SU and 10-16 ATS on the road). This team won in Memphis about a week ago by 11, and we think there is a great chance this one is a double-digit win again tonight. We always say revenge is an overrated factor in NBA handicapping. Memphis has a ton of issues now and their best two players, and anyone on the roster really, could be on the way out of town any day now. They aren’t foaming at the mouth for revenge against the Hornets, and that is just one of many losses for this team recently. We think the Hornets will be extra motivated after getting beat down in Boston last time out.
|01-30-19||Nuggets -7.5 v. Pelicans||Top||105-99||Loss||-110||7 h 1 m||Show|
The Pelicans gave everything they had last night in a win at Houston, and we think they left it all on the court last night. We think their tank will be empty tonight and expect the Nuggets to roll to a double-digit win. This team circled the wagons last night with a depleted roster and the Anthony Davis trade rumors. We don’t see any way they can replicate that effort here tonight. New Orleans is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in the second half of a back-to-back, and we think that trend continues tonight as the fresh Nuggets roll.
|01-29-19||Thunder v. Magic +5.5||Top||126-117||Loss||-110||6 h 16 m||Show|
The Magic are a more competitive team than most people think. They are facing a very public line tonight. The Magic have actually covered in six of the last four matchups between these teams. They won three of the last four outright, and the one loss was in OT. Orlando has covered three of their last four overall so they are playing above oddsmakers current expectations. We think they come to play tonight with a chance to win this one outright.
|01-28-19||Hawks v. Clippers -6||Top||123-118||Loss||-104||10 h 23 m||Show|
We are surprised by this line as we expected a number in the 8-9 range. Nice value here as well. The Clippers are being punished too much for this back-to-back and they are 5-3 ATS in the second of a back-to-back this season. They will be fine with no rest. This is a very well-rounded team and they play great team basketball, so if one player is having a down night there will likely be someone else to step up. The Clips are trending upwards as they have won and covered three straight and four of five. The Hawks haven’t bee covering many games despite very generous numbers from the bookies. The Clips can’t afford to overlook a game like this so we think they put their best foot forward and take care of business tonight.
|01-27-19||Bucks v. Thunder +1||Top||112-118||Win||100||6 h 6 m||Show|
The Thunder are playing very well right now and are on a four-game winning streak entering this game. We expect them to extend that tonight, and we had the Thunder as a slight favorite in this game. We think the wrong team is favored here. OKC has had two nights off heading into this one, and that extra day of rest is crucial here at this juncture of the season. The Bucks enter on a winning streak of their own, but they have had a very easy schedule lately. This is by far the toughest game during this current streak. OKC is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and we just think this line is a very public line since the Bucks are oddsmaker darlings this season. We think OKC has a good chance to win this one comfortably.
|01-27-19||Iowa +1.5 v. Minnesota||Top||87-92||Loss||-109||5 h 59 m||Show|
3 Unit Play. Take #835 Iowa over Minnesota (5p.m., Sunday, January 27 FS1) Look for Iowa to bounce back against Minnesota after losing to Michigan State last time out. Iowa is still in good shape to make the NCAA Tournament and they are a much better shooting team than is Minnesota. The Gophers lost on a last second shot to Michigan last time out and expect a carryover effect in this game.
|01-26-19||Pacers -5 v. Grizzlies||Top||103-106||Loss||-105||8 h 5 m||Show|
Oladipo suffered a bad injury lately and is out for the season. We expect his team to step up in his absence. This has been a strong team environment all season. The loss of their best player hurts for sure, but this team is still strong, and we should get some value lines with them in the near future. Memphis has all sorts of problems right now, mainly as two of their three best players could be on their way out of town. Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and we expect them to hold Memphis to a real low score tonight.
|01-25-19||Clippers -5 v. Bulls||Top||106-101||Push||0||8 h 44 m||Show|
The Clippers have struggled lately against a tough schedule and this team is now on the verge of being out of the playoff picture. But this team is trending back upwards and they have been one of the better bets in the NBA most of the season. They have won and covered two of three, and they can’t afford to overlook this Bulls team tonight. Past versions of the Clippers might do just that, but this team seems better suited to win these types of games despite lacking the overall talent of the Clippers with the Big 3 on the roster.
|01-24-19||Warriors v. Wizards +10.5||Top||126-118||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
It is becoming evident that the Wizards are a better team without John Wall. The last couple years when he has been out for extended periods they played better basketball, and that has been the case again this year. They have played really well on this homestand, winning four of five, with the only loss coming to Toronto in overtime. They were blow out early in the season on the road against the Warriors, and every team wants to play well against the defending champs at least once, so we think they give a much better effort here. The Warriors have really been rolling lately, and they have been covering some spreads, which is something they have struggled to do the last couple seasons with inflated spreads. This has been one of the worst betting teams in the NBA the last couple seasons. And the lines are quick to get big again, which is the case tonight, since public bettors will take the Warriors no matter the number. This team has won eight straight entering this game. But they don’t care about streaks whatsoever. They are just treating this as another game. They are probably due for a letdown game, and with the Celtics coming up next in the marquee game on Saturday, this team could be caught looking ahead to the next game.
|01-23-19||Hornets -1 v. Grizzlies||Top||118-107||Win||104||6 h 14 m||Show|
The Hornets don’t win much on the road, but they have a great chance to win this one tonight. Gasol and Conley, the Grizzlies best two players, are on the trade market. This team is heading into a massive rebuild and the team just doesn’t have a lot of motivation to play well. They have lost six straight heading into this game, and they covered only one of those games despite some very generous lines. The Hornets come into this one having won three of their last four games, and they have won and covered in all of the last three meetings.
|01-22-19||Blazers +6 v. Thunder||Top||114-123||Loss||-115||9 h 37 m||Show|
Portland has a strong history in this series, they are in fine form right now, and they are one of the better betting teams in the NBA this season. This seems like too many points in a game where the Blazers can threaten for the straight up win. Portland has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams. The one where they didn’t was earlier this month in a two-point loss at home. Portland enters on a three-game winning streak and they have covered six of their last seven overall. They are playing very confident basketball right now and unless they just have an off night we just don’t see any way this won’t be a close game. These teams match up well. Both teams are coming in on a back-to-back but the Thunder had to travel from NY compared to Utah for Portland and that is a much easier travel schedule. We think there are a lot of factors that point to the road team tonight, and this also seems like an inflated spread.
|01-21-19||Mavs +11.5 v. Bucks||Top||106-116||Win||100||2 h 31 m||Show|
We just think that this is too many points for the Mavs to be getting here on the holiday. Both teams are amongst the top betting teams ATS this season, but this line is just too large. This is one of the biggest numbers the Mavs have faced this season, and they are a perfect 2-0 ATS when getting double digit points. You have to go all the way back to 2014 as to when the Bucks covered a game in this series, and Dallas is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
|01-19-19||Penn State v. Minnesota -4.5||Top||64-65||Loss||-115||28 h 36 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take Minnesota over Penn State (8:30p.m., Saturday, January 19 BTN) We will lay the small change tonight with Minnesota looking to move to 4-3 in Big 10 play. Penn State has yet to win a game this season in conference play and that will continue tonight at the Barn. Most of Minnesota’s conference games tend to be blowouts one way or the other and thus since we think they will win, they will also be able to cover this spread. The Gophers are coming off an embarrassing performance last time out against Illinois, but Penn State will not be able to pressure them like Illinois did. Penn State is coming off two straight home losses and their coach is likely to be replaced come March. Penn State is not only losing games they have not been covering the spread as well going 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games. The Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at the Barn. The favorite has covered the spread in 8 of their last 11 meetings.
|01-19-19||Suns +7 v. Hornets||Top||115-135||Loss||-103||9 h 35 m||Show|
We think the Hornets are way overrated coming into this game. This team has low morale after a bad road trip. The Suns played very well last time out and gave Toronto all they could handle. Phoenix did very well ATS a few weeks ago as they had a nice streak and with Booker back they could have value against the betting line. This looks like too many points tonight.
|01-18-19||Grizzlies v. Celtics -10.5||Top||116-122||Loss||-110||6 h 18 m||Show|
One of the safest bets in the NBA lately has been to bet against the Memphis Grizzlies. They have covered only once in the last 11 games. And things will probably get worse before they get better. The trade deadline is coming up, and Gasol and even Conley might be on their way out of town. It’s time for this team to do the total rebuild that they have been putting off for years and everyone knows it. And this team is just not playing with any fire lately. They have lost two straight by double digits, and we see that as the likely result again tonight. Boston hasn’t been as stable as we like this season but they are streaky and this might be the start of another hot streak coming off the big win vs. Toronto last time out. Boston has covered seven straight at home, and when this team wins it normally covers, so we think this is a very solid bet tonight.
|01-17-19||Oregon v. Arizona -4.5||Top||59-54||Loss||-108||22 h 48 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #644 Arizona Wildcats over Oregon Ducks (9p.m., Thursday, January 17 ESPN) Arizona is going to win the PAC-12 this year! Despite a poor showing in the nonconference portion of the season they are putting things together and will enter this game with a perfect 4-0 record in conference play. Oregon is not the same team without Bol Bol and they will struggle to a .500 team in conference play. Arizona has won 6 straight games and are righting the ship. Oregon is 1-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 road games. Arizona is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 PAC-12 games.
|01-17-19||Kings v. Hornets -2||Top||95-114||Win||100||7 h 59 m||Show|
The Hornets are coming off a long road trip where things didn’t go that well, as expected as this team is just not good away from home. But this squad has been pretty good at home and they are 14-8 here this season. We think revenge is a way overrated NBA handicapping angle, but we do think that it comes into play when teams have recently met, and the Kings won in Sacramento when these teams played just five days ago. It was a pretty close game despite the Hornets shooting poorly in the second half. We expect a much better effort here at home. Like the Hornets are undervalued due to a recent poor road trip, the Kings are overvalued here since they have had some success at home lately. But we think this line is too short tonight.
|01-16-19||Magic +4 v. Pistons||Top||115-120||Loss||-108||7 h 1 m||Show|
Orlando actually has one more win than Detroit on the season, and we think this is a very public line. This is the first game back home after a long West Coast road trip for Detroit, and the first game back home can often be tricky since the players’ minds may be focused more on personal matters. Orlando is confident here, coming off home wins against Houston and Boston. They have also covered in seven of the last eight matchups in this series!
|01-15-19||Warriors v. Nuggets +1||Top||142-111||Loss||-105||27 h 57 m||Show|
We think that the wrong team is absolutely favored here. Denver has a very good team this season and they are a real threat for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. This is an up-and-coming team and they actually care about the regular season, while the Warriors just want to be healthy and in a good state of mind once April rolls around. This game is important for a potential tiebreaker down the line and we think the Nuggets are much more serious about this matchup than is Golden State. Denver has a strong recent history in this series as they have won the last two meetings straight up. The Warriors haven’t covered in four straight meetings (one push) and they are 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. We like Denver for a big time win here.
|01-13-19||Warriors v. Mavs +6.5||Top||119-114||Win||100||6 h 29 m||Show|
Dallas is one of the best home teams in the league at 16-4 on the season, and the Warriors have been just a little better than mediocre on the road at 11-8. We had Golden State listed as a slight favorite here but we think this line is inflated. Dallas is 6-2 ATS at home this season against above-.500 clubs, and they should give their best effort tonight against the defending champs. Dallas is one of the best ATS teams in the league this season, and we trust them again tonight.
|01-13-19||Chargers v. Patriots -3.5||Top||28-41||Win||100||121 h 31 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #306 New England Patriots over Los Angeles Chargers (1:05p.m., Sunday, January 13 CBS) The Chargers have been on a roll but playing their third straight road games against a rested team will doom them in. The Patriots are a much better team at home and they are the only team that did not lose a home game this season. Los Angeles still seems to be banged up at the skill positions and I am not sure that their wide receivers can stretch the field against New England. QB Rivers is 1-5 in his career against New England and is 0-2 in the playoffs. New England is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against New England. Everyone is doubting the Patriots at this moment, but they still are the Patriots with the best coach/quarterback combo of all time. New England dominates for 60 minutes and wins this game by double digits.
|01-12-19||Kansas -3.5 v. Baylor||Top||73-68||Win||100||22 h 39 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #689 Kansas over Baylor (4p.m., Saturday, January 12 ESPN) Kansas lost their last road game but losing is something they just do not do that often in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks lost Udoka Azubuike and thus I believe the odds makers have over adjusted the spread in both of there games this week. They controlled the game with TCU from the start and I expect them to be ahead most of this game as well. Kansas is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Baylor. The road team is 20-7 ATS (1 push) in the last 28 meetings. Baylor already lost to SFA at home this year and they are not as strong as they have been in year’s past. Kansas gets back on track today in Waco.
|01-11-19||Nets +9.5 v. Raptors||Top||105-122||Loss||-100||7 h 55 m||Show|
Not a lot of people realize it, but if the season ended right now the Nets would be in the postseason. That’s not a major accomplishment in the East and they are just 21-22, but the perception of the public is that this is a lottery team, but the truth is that they are playing some decent basketball. This team has covered in four of their last five games, and they have won straight up in all those covers. The Raptors have won three straight, but this team is not in the same fine form they were when they set the NBA ablaze early in the season. They have covered just 3 of their last 13 games overall, a clear sign that their play on the court is not matching the oddsmaker expectations. This team has had lots of trouble covering big lines this season as they are 4-11 ATS when laying nine or more points this season. They are 4-7 ATS at home against Sub-.500 clubs. Brooklyn has also covered in three of the last four meetings, two of which went to overtime (the Nets won the last meetings between these clubs, in December).
|01-10-19||Clippers v. Nuggets -5.5||Top||100-121||Win||100||8 h 18 m||Show|
We have been making a lot of money with the Clippers lately, but we think it’s time to go the other way tonight. Denver is one of the best home teams in the NBA at 16-3 while the Clippers are mediocre on the road at 10-10. LA has won three straight, but those all came against flawed opponents. They take a hefty step up in competition tonight. Denver has won six of their last seven, and they are in fine form right now. This team is 13-6 ATS at home this season, so when they win they normally cover the line as well. They are also 8-2 ATS at home against teams above .500, so they get up when the best of the best competition comes to Denver. The Nuggets have covered in seven of the last 10 meetings in this series, and they have revenge for a beatdown in LA last month that was a bad spot for them. They should get their revenge tonight in what we see as a comfortable 7+-point win.
|01-09-19||Pacers v. Celtics -6.5||Top||108-135||Win||100||6 h 20 m||Show|
Despite the records, the Pacers are on the second tier of Eastern Conference contenders while the Celtics are the top tier. Boston just got off to a slow start this season while the Pacers have overachieved. But Boston is rounding into playoff form right now, and they are clearly the stronger team in this matchup. They have won and covered in three straight games. Once this team gets rolling they can cover a lot as they have been one of the best betting teams the last couple years. This team has now covered in 17 straight games where they have won, so when they win the spread normally doesn’t even come into play. The Pacers have actually won the last three meetings in this series, so we think the Celtics will give max effort here at home. This is the first meeting in Boston this season.
|01-08-19||Hornets v. Clippers -6.5||Top||109-128||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
Charlotte is a really bad road team at 5-12 this season. They face a Clippers team tonight that has been playing well and will continue to provide betting value all season long because of the lack of big names on the roster. Preseason perception of this team was that this squad was a lottery team, and many think they will still fall short of the postseason, but we think, barring major injuries, that this will be a solid playoff team. They play unselfish basketball and the depth is great. They are the No. 3 earner in the NBA for betting, and we like this number again tonight on the south side of the NBA key betting number of 7. Both teams were off yesterday but the Hornets played the second of a back-to-back on Sunday, so this will be their third game in four nights, and this team is in the midst of a long road trip that can possibly sink their season unless they start to play better on the road. The Clippers have covered in seven of their last nine overall, and we think they are undervalued again here on Tuesday.
|01-07-19||Nets v. Celtics -9.5||Top||95-116||Win||100||7 h 4 m||Show|
Boston has scored double-digit wins in their last two games, and we think they make it three straight tonight. Brooklyn has won three straight, but one of those wins was against the Bulls, and that was yesterday, which means they are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights tonight. This team hasn’t been good with no rest at 2-7 ATS. Boston has had two nights off heading into this game, and rest is becoming very crucial at this point of the season. The Celts should have Irving and Morris back tonight. We expect a strong performance.
|01-06-19||Hornets v. Suns +2||Top||119-113||Loss||-111||8 h 32 m||Show|
Love the Suns in this spot. Phoenix has one more win at home than the Hornets do on the road! We think the wrong team is favored here. Charlotte is terrible on the road. They are coming in on a back-to-back after playing in the high altitude of Denver last night, and that is always tough as it takes a toll on the bodies of these players. The Suns have lost five straight, but they have played five strong playoff teams, and they have had one of the toughest schedules in the NBA lately. This is their most winnable game recently, and we think they put their best foot forward. This team is actually 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games and this young team is quietly playing a lot better and has a bright future ahead if these players continue to develop.
|01-05-19||St. John's -1.5 v. Georgetown||Top||97-94||Win||100||18 h 32 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #617 St Johns over Georgetown (1p.m., Saturday, January 5 CBS) The Red Storm are for real and they continue to be undervalued by the odds makers. Both teams have played an easy schedule thus far in nonconference play. I just feel St Johns is farther along in year 4 of Chris Mullen compared to year 2 of Patrick Ewing. St Johns is still made from the officiating they received in New Jersey last Saturday and expect a similar performance to what we saw from them against Marquette during the week. St. Johns is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Big East games. Georgetown is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Big East games. The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
|01-04-19||Wizards v. Heat -7.5||Top||109-115||Loss||-100||7 h 15 m||Show|
Miami has been a covering machine lately as they are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games. We think they are undervalued here again tonight. Miami is the kind of team that can hold betting value all year long because of their lack of star power, and we think there’s a good chance for a double-digit win tonight. Washington has covered only one of five meetings in this series. Of course, they are without John Wall, their best player, who has been lost for the season. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS as a dog of 6 or more points this season, meaning they have failed every chance in a situation like they are in tonight. They are only 4-16 on the road this season, and that was with Wall leading the way most of the season. This team just doesn’t have any identity this season, and we don’t expect them to show up in this one tonight.
|01-03-19||Rockets +8.5 v. Warriors||Top||135-134||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
We just think that this is too many points. The Warriors are playing well, but when that happens the numbers get too high and this team has been one of the worst bets in the NBA the last couple seasons because of that fact. They are 16-22 ATS on the season, and they have covered only two of their last seven. Houston is the hotter team right now. They have won 10 of 11 and are playing well without Chris Paul. We expect them to put their best foot forward tonight in what should be a very competitive game.
|01-02-19||76ers v. Suns +5||Top||132-127||Push||0||8 h 8 m||Show|
The Suns got smoked last time out against the Warriors, but this team has been playing hard lately and their young nucleus is starting to come together. They have covered in eight of their last 10 games, so they are playing above oddsmakers expectations. Philly comes in on a back-to-back and this is their third game in four nights, and they go home after this game, so this may be a letdown spot for them. This team has not been very good on the road this season, where they are 7-12 ATS on the season.
|01-01-19||Marquette v. St. John's +1||Top||69-89||Win||100||21 h 22 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #606 St Johns over Marquette (7p.m., Tuesday, January 1 FS1) This game can go 1 of 2 ways for the Red Storm. They entered last Saturday undefeated and dominated for most of the game against Seton Hall. Missed some free throws and got hosed by the refs and they ended up losing at the buzzer but still covered the spread. Now this must regroup and make sure the conference season does not go down the drain. I think they will since they have the best player and Marquette has done most of their damage at home. The Golden Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. St. Johns is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with Marquette. This is a game the Red Storm need to save their season and they get it by 6-8 points.
|12-31-18||Michigan State +3 v. Oregon||Top||6-7||Win||100||123 h 26 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #262 Michigan State Spartans over Oregon Ducks (3p.m., Monday, December 31 FOX Redbox Bowl) COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR. Never been a fan of Mario Cristobal as a head coach. He was a very uninspired hire and his recruiting greatness never seems to match his coaching ability. The same cannot be said about Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio, as he gets the most out of his talent and this year is no exception. Oregon may have the edge on offense, but Michigan State has the best defense they have seen all season long and Sparty also had a huge edge in special teams. QB Herbert will play in this game but I believe he is already thinking about the NFL draft and is not that concerned about winning this game. Oregon has been the favorite in their last 3 bowl games and they have lost all of them straight-up (2 of them by double-digits). Michigan State dominated Washington State in their bowl game last year and expect a similar performance this year in a California bowl game. Oregon is 5-15 ATS ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games following a victory in their previous game. Michigan State is 7-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 neutral site games.
|12-30-18||76ers +1 v. Blazers||Top||95-129||Loss||-110||8 h 28 m||Show|
The Sixers have been bad on the road this season, but they are getting better as they played well in their last two road games in Utah and Boston, winning against the Jazz and falling to the Celtics in OT. The main reason we like this play is because the Sixers are well rested. They have had two days off coming into this one. The Blazers are on a back-to-back, and they will be playing their third game in four nights, with both of the previous games coming against the Warriors. Those were very important games for the Blazers, and now they face a rested out-of-conference foe. We just don’t see them giving that maximum effort that would be required in a game like this. Philly has covered in five of the last six meetings.
|12-29-18||Spurs v. Clippers -3.5||Top||122-111||Loss||-106||10 h 39 m||Show|
The Clippers are definitely out of their slump, and they have won four of five and covered in five straight. Both teams are playing in a back-to-back here and both are on their third game in four nights. But the Clippers have been home the whole time (last night they were the “road” team against the Lakers but in their own arena). The Spurs had to play in the high altitude in Denver, and that can really wear a team down. We think revenge is an overrated handicapping angle, but we do think the Clippers remember their absolute beatdown at the hands of the Spurs in San Antonio a couple weeks ago. We think this will be a perfect spot to get some payback tonight.
|12-29-18||St. John's +3.5 v. Seton Hall||Top||74-76||Win||100||27 h 13 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #649 St Johns over Seton Hall (8:30p.m., Saturday, December 29 FSN) Top College Basketball Play of the Day We are not going into this game blindly. St Johns is undefeated, but they are not ranked and have not played a very good nonconference schedule. That being said they are much more talented than the Pirates who lost 4 straights off of last year’s team that reached the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. The Red Storm have the best player on the floor and I expect them to win this game straight-up in a game that goes down to the wire. The Pirates claim to fame is beating Kentucky, but the Wildcats have had an up and down season thus far. The Underdog has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings. St Johns is an NCAA Tournament team and they will start off Big East play with a road win to keep their undefeated streak in-tact.
|12-29-18||Nets v. Bucks -9.5||Top||115-129||Win||100||4 h 10 m||Show|
We expect a big game from the Bucks, who were off on Friday, while the Nets played the second game of a grueling home-and-home with Charlotte, the first of which went to OT. So they are on a back-to-back here and playing their third game in four nights. We don’t see things going well for them. The Bucks are 23-8-1 ATS in this series, so they always seem to get up for this matchup. The early start time goes against the Nets here as well as the back-to-back. This looks like it could be a massive blowout as the Nets should be running on fumes here.
|12-28-18||Nets v. Hornets -4.5||Top||87-100||Win||100||6 h 7 m||Show|
Brooklyn has the better record but we think the Hornets are the better team. Like many lousy teams, the Hornets are much better at home (12-7) than they are on the road (4-10). These teams played last time out in Brooklyn and the Hornets played well enough to win in a OT loss. We think revenge is way overrated in the NBA as a handicapping angle but it does come into play when the teams met recently, and that is certainly the case here. We think the Hornets will get a comfortable win here at home.
|12-27-18||Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +4||Top||3-35||Win||100||220 h 43 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #238 Wisconsin Badgers over Miami Hurricanes (5:15p.m., Thursday, December 27 ESPN Pinstripe Bowl) Just do not see why Miami is favored in this no buzz rematch from a bowl game last year. Wisconsin picked apart Miami last year and their quarterback had a career game against them. I just get the feeling that they will rekindle some of that magic in this game against a warm weather team playing a late December game in New York City. Wisconsin has won 4 straight bowl games. Miami has lost three straight games and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 bowl games. Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Big 10 teams. Grab the points and expect Wisconsin to win this game straight-up.
|12-26-18||Suns +5 v. Magic||Top||122-120||Win||101||6 h 26 m||Show|
The Suns have now covered six straight games and this team is playing their best basketball of the season. They have won four out of their last six games, and they could have won another but fell at Washington in OT. On a back-to-back the next night they played their only lousy game recently, but that was to be expected after that barnburner of a game that was multiple overtimes in the nation’s capital. This team is completely healthy right now and they are really coming together as a team. Rookie Ayton is starting to show why he was the No. 1 pick in the draft, and Booker is a star. Orlando is 3-5 ATS this season as a favorite and this is tied with the biggest number they have laid all season. Just don’t think this team is good enough to be giving up a number like this, especially against a surging team like the Suns. Phoenix has covered in all of the last five meetings in Orlando.
|12-25-18||76ers v. Celtics -4.5||Top||114-121||Win||100||8 h 43 m||Show|
Boston has a strong history in this series and they are the better ballclub. And the number is right here for a big win on Christmas. The Sixers haven’t covered a line in their last four trips to Boston and they are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings. Philly is great at home but they have struggled on the road, and they have very few quality wins away from home. They lost to Boston on the road in the season opener by almost 20 points. They were blown out in Milwaukee. Toronto (twice). San Antonio. Those were their toughest road games, and they lost by double digits in each. We think they have a very good chance to lose here by double digits. Boston has been a bit streaky and they followed up a long winning streak by losing three straight. But they got back on track last time out in a 16-point home win vs. Charlotte and they led that game by as many as 33 before taking their foot off the gas. They shot 50 percent from the field, and we think that hot shooting will carry over here. Philly has won two straight, but they were both at home. They are just 6-9 on the road, however, and they have covered just 5 of 15 away from home this season. Boston has been one of the best and most stable betting teams the last couple years, and we think they have a great chance to win this one by 10+ on Tuesday.
|12-23-18||Clippers +10.5 v. Warriors||Top||127-129||Win||100||8 h 18 m||Show|
When the Clippers had Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, the Warriors seemed to take pleasure in running up the score on the Clippers. They liked to get into these guys heads, and it always worked. But this is a different Clippers team and they are mentally tougher than previous editions. They also play better team basketball, and the team has great depth. The Clips already won the first meeting between these teams, at home in overtime. LA is coming off one of their best games of the season yesterday in their win over Denver. That was an early game so eliminated some of the brunt of the back-to-back here. We see this being a competitive game.
|12-20-18||Mavs v. Clippers -3||Top||121-125||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
Neither of these teams is in top form right now after both started off the season defying expectations to become two of the best ATS teams in the NBA. But this looks like a great spot for the Clippers to get back on the winning track. They played well enough to win in their last two matchups vs. Portland and at OKC, but the opponent played a bit better. They have had two days off to focus here. The Mavs have been horrible on the road at 2-10 on the season, and they are in the midst of one of the toughest road trips any NBA team will see this season. They had been one of the best bets in the NBA but have lost their last three ATS as of this writing. The Clippers have had more time to regroup, and they have been able to do it at home, while the Nuggets have only one day off and should be road weary. We expect the number to be right here and we think this is a great spot for the home team to get a comfortable win.
|12-18-18||Wizards -4.5 v. Hawks||Top||110-118||Loss||-100||25 h 7 m||Show|
The Wizards haven’t been very good on the road, where they have won only four games all season. But the Hawks have been just as bad at home, where they have won only four. One of those road wins was less than two weeks ago in Atlanta against these same Hawks. That was a 14-point win but only because the Wizards took their foot off the gas when up by as much as 25 at one point. The Wizards went on to lose four straight after that, but this team looks like it might be on the way back up after one of the best wins of the season last time out in an 18-point home win over the Lakers. This Wizards team has not had enough success this season to overlook a team like the Hawks, and the talent discrepancy between these two clubs is large. We see the Wizards getting another comfortable win here in a game that sure looks like a mismatch.
|12-17-18||Blazers v. Clippers -2||Top||131-127||Loss||-101||10 h 1 m||Show|
The Clippers haven’t been playing well, having dropped five of their last six, and this team has lost the confidence of bettors. But we think this is a great spot for them to get back on track tonight. This team has played seven of the last nine on the road, and overall their strength of schedule has been very tough. But this team is still 9-3 SU at home and 8-4 ATS. We have bet against the Clippers in their last two games, and they failed to cover both. But they barely missed the cover last time out at OKC, and we liked what we saw from them down the stretch in that tough matchup. But we think they can continue that momentum here at home against a Portland team that is lousy on the road. They are 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS on the season in road contests. Damian Lillard also missed practice yesterday and is attending to a personal matter to which we are not sure of the nature, but he might not have his head in the game 100%, and we think the Clippers will be very focused to get a win here and put an end to their current losing streak.
|12-16-18||Kings v. Mavs -5.5||Top||120-113||Loss||-105||6 h 16 m||Show|
These are two of the best ATS teams in the league facing off in Dallas tonight, but we think the Mavs are the better ballclub and we like them laying fewer than seven here on Sunday Night. The Mavs are coming off a somewhat embarrassing loss to the Suns, and they should bounce back well here. We think they will put their best foot forward here after playing lousy last time out. This is also their last home game before they go on a four-game road trip against WC playoff contenders, and that makes a win here imperative. They should be heavy dogs in all those road games. The Kings are coming off a home loss to Golden State where they played well and covered. This is probably a letdown spot after that strong effort.
|12-16-18||Patriots -2 v. Steelers||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||77 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #327 New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 16 CBS) Both teams need to turn the page quickly after bad losses last Sunday. The Patriots seldom lose two games in a row and they are playing a team in disarray at the moment. Pittsburgh has not beaten New England since 2011 and the Patriots are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss in their previous game. Over this winning streak, the Patriots average margin of victory is 11 points against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played during the month of December. New England is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in December.
|12-15-18||Rockets -2 v. Grizzlies||Top||105-97||Win||100||28 h 34 m||Show|
If the Rockets were a stock, we would be buying right now. We knew this team would start to turn it on, and now it seems like that is taking place after wins and covers in their last two games, against the Blazers and Lakers. The Grizzlies had a very strong start to the season, but they are trailing off now. Their offense has failed to reach the century mark in five of their last six games. The Houston offense has really got in rhythm and we don’t think the Grizzlies will be able to slow them down. Houston has won and covered the last two meetings by double digits, and they have covered in four of the last six meetings. Those trends hold firm tonight.
|12-15-18||Indiana -1.5 v. Butler||Top||71-68||Win||100||20 h 6 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #667 Indiana over Butler (3:45p.m., Saturday, December 15 CBS) This 4 team tournament always seems to feature competitive games and upsets but I just do not believe Butler has the same magic under this coaching staff. The Bulldogs are 7-2 on the season but both of their losses have come against teams that will likely not make the NCAA Tournament come March. Indiana is 8-2 and both of their losses are against quality teams with one of them (Duke) possessing the most talent in the country. Indiana can score points and they are shooting over 51% on the season. Butler will have to be on fire from long range to make a game of this and I do not expect that to happen. The Hoosiers are in year two under Archie Miller and they have already shown flashes of brilliance this year and I expect them to make the NCAA Tournament come March. They pick up another quality win today at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
|12-14-18||Pacers +4.5 v. 76ers||Top||113-101||Win||100||7 h 43 m||Show|
We will go with the hot team here as the Pacers come in riding a five-game winning streak. This team is healthy now, while the Sixers have some injury issues, and Butler is questionable here for this one tonight. The Pacers always get up to play the Sixers, and they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games in Philly and 9-4 ATS overall in the last 13 meetings. We see this as a very competitive team and the Pacers have been a much better betting team than has the Sixers thus far this season. An outright win is not out of the question here.
|12-13-18||Clippers v. Spurs -2.5||Top||87-125||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
The Clippers are trending down right now with four straight ATS losses and five of their last six. They won only one of those ATS loss games, at Phoenix, and the feeble Suns took them to overtime where LA squeaked out the win. Every NBA team goes through these downturns, and you can’t fault the Clips after the way they started the season. But San Antonio is trending up, and they have won and covered three straight, all at home. We thought that this line should be about 4.5 and we would lean Spurs at that number but this small number offers up a lot of value tonight.
|12-10-18||Pelicans v. Celtics -7.5||Top||100-113||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
After a slow start to the season, the Celtics have come on strong lately and this team has now won and covered in five straight. Most of those games were blowouts, including a matchup at New Orleans to start the streak, a 124-107 Celtics win. We think revenge is an overrated NBA handicapping angle, and the Pelicans have been inconsistent lately and they are just trying to get on the same page as a team. If they are hunting for revenge then they will have a lot of teams in their target as they have been racking up too many losses lately. We have to go with the hot hand here as the Celtics are now playing to their potential, and that potential has them as a Top 2 team in the Eastern Conference.
|12-09-18||Bucks v. Raptors -5||Top||104-99||Loss||-107||6 h 49 m||Show|
The Bucks have been just average on the road this season at 4-5 on the year. We thought that this line should be above 7, so we think there is some great value with what looks like the best team in the NBA during the first part of the season. The Bucks won the last matchup very early in the season, but they are not in the best form right now as they have covered in only one of their last seven games. This one looks like a real mismatch and we expect the home team to win comfortably.
|12-09-18||Eagles +4 v. Cowboys||Top||23-29||Loss||-110||123 h 5 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #129 Philadelphia Eagles over Dallas Cowboys (1:25p.m., Sunday, December 9 FOX) Everyone has just given the Cowboys the NFC East and disregarded the defending Super Bowl Champions. We will gladly take the points in this game and look for Philadelphia to come out strong in this must win game for them. The Eagles are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road divisional games when they are an underdog. The Cowboys are 9-18 ATS in their last 27 home divisional games when they are a favorite. The road team has covered the spread in 11 of the last 14 match-ups.
|12-08-18||Wisconsin v. Marquette||Top||69-74||Loss||-110||23 h 34 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #777 Wisconsin over Marquette (5p.m., Saturday, December 7 FOX) This battle of Wisconsin takes place at the new Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI. We used Marquette last week as our big play and won easily but I do not expect the kind of officiating in this game that we saw in that game. The road team has dominated this series having covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings. Wisconsin is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games. Marquette is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Big 10 teams. Wisconsin is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. The Badgers have the best player in the floor in Ethan Happ and they will not let Markus Howard go off like he did last Saturday.
|12-05-18||Clippers v. Grizzlies -2||Top||86-96||Win||100||7 h 11 m||Show|
The Grizzlies have lost four of five but they faced a real tough slate during that stretch that saw them lose to Toronto, at Philly, and at these same Clippers. The Grizzlies had that game in hand until some late Clipper heroics and then they lost in overtime and missed the cover by ½ point. They will put their best foot forward tonight against a traditional rival and with the venue now at home. Memphis has had two nights off and they are 6-0 ATS with this much rest. We think they will be very focused to get back on track in this one. The Clippers are one of the biggest surprises in the league this year and they are a very good team. But they are starting to be overvalued by the oddsmakers, and we think that is the case here tonight. We think this will be a high-scoring game and that the posted total is about four points too low.
|12-04-18||Bulls +9.5 v. Pacers||Top||90-96||Win||100||28 h 29 m||Show|
The Bulls are a terrible team, but they have covered just as many games this season as the Pacers have. We simply think that this line is too large on Tuesday. The Bulls fired Fred Hoiberg on Monday, and sometimes this gives the team some extra motivation as sometimes the coach’s message has stopped getting through to the players. We think they will play hard here. The Pacers are the much better team, but they are missing their superstar and best player in Oladipo and this squad has lost four out of its last six. They are also on the dreaded first game back home after a long road trip, not to mention they play on the road for one game after this home contest, and sometimes players don’t give full effort in these spots since they have off-the-court life dealings to consider. This is too many points on Tuesday.
|12-03-18||Thunder v. Pistons +2||Top||110-83||Loss||-103||7 h 54 m||Show|
Two teams that are playing very well, but the Pistons have won five straight and seven of their last eight. They are in amazing form right now and clicking on all facets of the game when this team has underwhelmed so many times over the years. They are 9-3 at home this season while the Thunder are just average on the road at 5-4. Both teams have been winning against an easy schedule lately, but we have just been more impressed by what the Pistons have done, and they are the team catching points at home. Very live home dog here on Monday that should be able to get the outright win.
|12-02-18||Clippers v. Mavs +2.5||Top||110-114||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
The wrong team is favored here. The Clippers have been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this season and they sit No. 1 in the Western Conference. They have had a decently easy schedule lately and this team is just average on the road where they sit at 6-5 on the season (The Mavs are 8-2 at home). Dallas has won seven of their last nine so they are in fine form as well. DeAndre Jordan will be hyped to play against his old team, and the rest of his teammates will rally around him against what is becoming a bit of an overrated Clippers team.
|12-02-18||Vikings v. Patriots -5.5||Top||10-24||Win||100||122 h 21 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #376 New England Patriots over Minnesota Vikings (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 2 FOX) These back to back road games on the docket for Minnesota will likely doom them in. Going to New England this week and Seattle the next week is as tough to travel as there is in the league. Minnesota just does not have the same defense that they had last year. New England will be able to score in the thirties in this game and I just do not believe Minnesota will be able to keep pace. The Patriots are starting to get healthy and they are always tough to beat in December (8-1 ATS last 9 December games). Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Patriots have just been going through the motions of late, but this is a game that they will get up for and win it by double-digits.
|12-01-18||Kansas State v. Marquette -2||Top||71-83||Win||100||4 h 39 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #534 Marquette over Kansas State (2p.m., Saturday, December 1 FS1) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR Both teams return a ton of experience, but Marquette needs this game more to bolster their hopes of an NCAA Tournament bid. Always like a game that features an unranked team that is favored against a ranked team. The Golden Eagles are a much better team at home and this will be the first two road game for Kansas State and their Milwaukee native coach. Marquette has two losses on the season, but they have played a much more difficult schedule, but they have yet to record a quality win. This will be the day that it happens. Generally, to win on the road against good teams you must shoot the ball well from long range and that is just not something this Wildcat team does well. This will be a contrast in styles with Marquette having the edge on the perimeter compared to K-State having the edge in the pant. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Big East teams. Marquette has yet to hit their stride and play a complete 40 minute game but I expect that to happen on Saturday.
|11-30-18||Jazz v. Hornets -2||Top||119-111||Loss||-104||7 h 34 m||Show|
We had this game handicapped at Charlotte -6, so very nice value here in this line. This number seems very public and not a real representation of how these teams have played on the court thus far. Kemba Walker for the Hornets is putting in an MVP-like season so far, and he has the Hornets at 14-7 ATS and 8-3 at home this season. This team will be undervalued no matter how they play since they are so under the radar on a national level. Utah is the “name” team in this matchup, but they haven’t lived up to the massive preseason hype. They are under .500 on the season and they are not playing the stellar defense that we are used to seeing from this team. There isn’t the same teamwork we saw last season. Their star players have underperformed. This team will probably turn it around at some point, but right now they are overvalued by the oddsmakers, and we will take advantage of this bad line tonight with a big play for the Hornets.
|11-27-18||Raptors v. Grizzlies +5||Top||122-114||Loss||-100||7 h 12 m||Show|
The Grizzlies are 12-7 ATS and they keep getting disrespected by the oddsmakers. That is the case here tonight as we had them +1 in this matchup and give them a good chance to win outright. They lost a tough one on Friday in OT at the Clippers then had a letdown in their last game against the Knicks, so they will be anxious to get back on track here against one of the top teams in the east. Toronto plays Golden State next, so they will probably be more concerned about that matchup, and the Grizzlies head on the road after this game so they know they need a win here. Memphis is 6-3 ATS against above-.500 teams this season, and they are undervalued once again by the bookies tonight.
|11-24-18||Spurs v. Bucks -9.5||Top||129-135||Loss||-110||31 h 57 m||Show|
This is a real tough spot for the Spurs, who are on a back-to-back on the road and playing their third game in four nights despite all NBA teams getting the night off for Thanksgiving. The Bucks have similar rest, but they had a much easier game on Friday against the Suns and they get to stay home for this back-to-back, which is a big advantage. San Antonio is down this season from what we are used to, and this team isn’t very good on the road. The Bucks are nearly unbeatable on their home court and they are one of the best ATS teams in the league this season, which means you can trust them laying a big number like this.
|11-24-18||Arizona State v. Arizona +2||Top||41-40||Win||100||93 h 35 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #234 Arizona Wildcats over Arizona State Sun Devils (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 24 FS1) PAC 12 GAME OF THE YEAR The home team has won the last 5 meetings in the Territorial Cup. Arizona needs to win this game to become bowl eligible and they have played much better down the stretch winning 2 of their last 3 games (both wins have come against teams that beat ASU). Arizona State should not be favored as they are just 1-4 straight-up on the road in 2018. There will be a lot of points in this game, but I like the way QB Khalil Tate has been playing over his last three games (12 touchdown and 3 interceptions). Arizona is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. The underdog is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 Territorial Cup meetings.
|11-23-18||Jazz +2.5 v. Lakers||Top||83-90||Loss||-102||11 h 48 m||Show|
Overjoyed to get Utah as an underdog here as they are the superior team and should get the straight up road win tonight at Staples Center. Don’t be fooled by the records for these teams; the Jazz have gotten off to a slow start against a tougher schedule. And even at 10-7 straight up, the Lakers have been overvalued by the oddsmakers, as all LeBron James teams tend to be, as they are just 6-11 ATS on the season. Utah has won seven straight in this series. Yes, the Lakers are stronger with LeBron now, but you can’t ignore that long stretch of dominance. The Jazz are pretty fresh off a long road trip where they went 2-3 and then they dropped the normally-tough first game back home after a long trip to the Kings. We think they really need this game to get back on track and we think they give max effort here in a very winnable game. For whatever reason the Jazz have played better on the road than at home this season, and they have also covered five of the last seven meetings between these two teams in LA.
|11-21-18||Blazers v. Bucks -7||Top||100-143||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
After a hot start the Bucks had some struggles as they went through a tough stretch (3-4 SU and ATS). But they have won and covered two straight and this team is trending up again. This is a more complete and better team than the Blazers, and we expect a comfortable win from the home team tonight. These teams have almost identical records and yet the Bucks are laying a decent-sized number here. We think it’s not big enough, however. Also, the Bucks have owned this series as they are 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Blazers are coming in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights while the Bucks were off Tuesday and they have had a mellow schedule recently. They are primed for a big game tonight.
|11-21-18||Minnesota +1 v. Washington||Top||68-66||Win||100||7 h 16 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #533 Minnesota over Washington (6:30p.m., Wednesday, November 21 BTN) Washington just has not been playing well early in the season. They needed to rally to beat a so-so Texas A&M team last night and I do not believe they will have much left in the tank for this game. Minnesota had an easier game last night against Santa Clara and they should be better rested for this game tonight in Vancouver. Washington got blown out Auburn and they have struggled to cover the spread during much of the early season. Washington is 1-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 games against Big 10 teams. Minnesota is 7-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against PAC-12 teams.
|11-19-18||Clippers -8 v. Hawks||Top||127-119||Push||0||8 h 14 m||Show|
The Clippers are a Top 4 team in the west in the standings right now, and not many expected this. But if they stay healthy all season, this is going to be a playoff team and one that the top teams in the west will not want to play in the postseason. They are 9-6 against the spread this year so far, so they are defying oddsmakers expectations. This team plays great team basketball and they are unselfish. They have guys that can score and they play decent defense. They started their road trip last time out against Brooklyn in what could have been a letdown spot after home wins against the Spurs and Warriors, but they won and covered in that contest. Now they face a much weaker team in Atlanta tonight. This is arguably the worst team in the NBA. They have lost seven straight and covered in only three of those games, despite some generous lines from the oddsmakers. This Clippers team seems like one that will not lower itself to the level of competition like past Clippers squads, and we think they take advantage of this situation for an easy road win tonight.
|11-18-18||Warriors v. Spurs -3||Top||92-104||Win||100||7 h 11 m||Show|
We have faded the Golden State Warriors the last two games, and it has worked out pretty well, so we will go for three in a row here. We have the feeling the Warriors may enter their toughest stretch of this current regime. They have off-court drama going on, impending free agency and injuries. They also don’t have the fire they have had in previous seasons. And we don’t think they give a crap. As long as they are healthy and synched heading into the playoffs, we don’t think this team cares about playoff positioning as long as they are a Top 4 seed. The Spurs are in a more desperate situation tonight as they have lost five of six. But they have played a road-heavy schedule. They are still dominant at home at 5-2, and they will put their best foot forward tonight. They aren’t going to give the Warriors any breaks because of their current problems, and we think they win this one by a comfortable margin tonight.
|11-17-18||Michigan State v. Nebraska +2.5||Top||6-9||Win||100||94 h 28 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #416 Nebraska Cornhuskers over Michigan State Spartans (12p.m., Saturday, November 17 FOX) Nebraska is one of the most improved teams in the country and they have a good chance to win their remaining two games on the schedule. They have been playing a home heavy schedule of late and this has allowed them to get healthy. Michigan State has a terrible offense and I just do not believe they will be able to attack and score consistently on this suspect Husker defense. Nebraska has covered the spread in 5 straight games including our top play a few weeks ago when they blew out Minnesota. This is just a classic case of two teams heading in different directions. QB Arian Martinez can play and will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come in this conference. Nebraska is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Michigan State (4-1 in Lincoln).
|11-16-18||Jazz +3 v. 76ers||Top||107-113||Loss||-102||7 h 40 m||Show|
We love to back a good team after a bad loss, and that handicapping angle doesn’t get any better than this matchup tonight. The Jazz suffered what will go down as one of the worst (and most head-scratching) losses of the season last time out when they lost by 50 points in Dallas. That is just a super embarrassing result and this team will come out and give max effort tonight, we have no doubt about that. This is one of the best teams in the NBA. Teams just have off nights like this where nothing goes right, and there was a real lack of effort there after things got out of hand. But starters played limited minutes and they will have extra energy to get things back on track here tonight. The Jazz had won and covered three straight before that loss, so overall we will give them a mulligan for that game and assume they will return to current form here. And they are 5-3 on the road this season. Philly is undefeated at home, but this team hasn’t had a very tough home slate. This is their toughest home game of the season by far. And we think overall the Jazz are a much better team. Philly is just 6-10 ATS this season, so it’s obvious they are overvalued by the oddsmakers. We think Utah has a great chance for the outright win here.
|11-15-18||Warriors v. Rockets -3||Top||86-107||Win||100||8 h 3 m||Show|
Love the Rockets in this spot. They started the season real slow, but now they have won five of seven and they enter this one on a two-game winning streak. It seems like parting from Carmelo Anthony did this team a world of good, and they seem to have their confidence back. On the other side of the court is the Warriors. And you have to wonder if the cracks they have shown lately are the start of the end for this dynasty. Draymond Green is starting lots of drama with this team, and one of the best things about this squad in recent years was their ability to mesh on and off the court. This team has now covered only one of their last four, and the Hawks have them all they could handle last time out (we cashed on Atlanta as a big underdog). You get the feeling that the Warriors are not invested in this game as much as the Rockets. Houston is a team that wants to do a lot of damage in the regular season, while the Warriors just want to make sure everything is good before the postseason, and that is their biggest concern. And Curry is the stabilizing force with this Warriors team, and with the current drama surrounding this club, his presence on the court will be sorely missed tonight.
|11-15-18||Ohio State v. Creighton +2||Top||69-60||Loss||-106||7 h 20 m||Show|
6 Unit Play. Take #508 Creighton +2 over Ohio State (7p.m., Thursday, November 15 FS1) Playing in Omaha is always a tough challenge and with the talent Ohio State lost from last year I do not expect them to win this true road game. Creighton lost a bunch of talent as well but they do have the advantage of playing this at the CenturyLink Center. Most of the money is coming in on Ohio State yet the line is going the other direction. Creighton is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Big 10 teams.
|11-14-18||Heat -1.5 v. Nets||Top||120-107||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
We think Miami will be extra motivated here tonight after dropping three straight games at home, but those were all against playoff-quality teams. They will be desperate for a win tonight, and now they face a lottery team in the Brooklyn Nets. Brooklyn lost one of their best players when Caris LeVert went down with a really bad foot injury last time out against Minnesota. It looks like he won’t be lost for the season, but he was really the engine for this team and see some regression from this team for maybe a few games until they can get back in the groove. The Heat have a very strong history here in Brooklyn as they are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. This team hasn’t always played well this season and they have been somewhat of a disappointment thus far, but this is a playoff-quality club and we think this is a great spot for them to get back on track against a line that looks quite a bit short in our eyes.
|11-13-18||Wisconsin -1 v. Xavier||Top||77-68||Win||100||24 h 54 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #507 Wisconsin over Xavier (6:30p.m., Tuesday, November 13 FS1) Xavier is in a complete rebuilding mode this year and will have a new coach on the end line as well with Chris Mack bolting to Louisville. Wisconsin had a terrible season last year but had a couple of key injuries and everyone is back and they should be able to return to the NCAA Tournament. They have the best player on the floor in Ethan Happ and look for them to return the favor of winning this game on the road (Xavier won in Madison last year). This is an important game for Wisconsin to keep their confidence high and for their unproven coach. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 6 straight road games. Xavier is 0-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 home games. Wisconsin opened as a favorite for this game and that lets me believe they are the right side for this play.
|11-12-18||Spurs v. Kings +3||Top||99-104||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
Sacramento is underrated and we think this is a very public line on Monday night. The Kings have one of the better offenses in the NBA right now and they can light up the scoreboard on any given night. The Kings have had some tough games lately, but this seems like a good spot for a bounce back. The Spurs are a bit down this year and they come off a big win over Houston but we don’t see this team putting together two strong games. We had this game handicapped at PK so we think there is nice value on the home dog tonight.
|11-10-18||South Florida v. Cincinnati -12||Top||23-35||Push||0||99 h 49 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #156 Cincinnati Bearcats over USF Bulls (7p.m., Saturday, November 10 ESPN U) The Bulls are in freefall at the moment having lost two straight games after a 7-0 start to the season. They will not get out of that funk tonight against Cincinnati a team that is a sneaky 8-1 on the season. USF is getting no respect from the linemakers evident by being a big underdog two of the last three weeks. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. USF played cupcakes to open the season and their defense will provide little resistance against the Bearcats. USF is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 AAC games. This is going to be a double-digit blowout for the Bearcats and we will collect big with them in the process.
|11-09-18||Hornets v. 76ers -5.5||Top||132-133||Loss||-115||6 h 28 m||Show|
The Hornets have been good at covering the spread this season, but we think the price is right for the home team in this situation. The Sixers have covered in six of the last seven meetings between these clubs, and the non-cover, this season, was still a Philly win. The Sixers are playing with confidence right now and got their first road win of the season last time out in Indiana, which is a really tough place to play. We think that positive momentum will carry over here on Friday night.
|11-08-18||Rockets -4 v. Thunder||Top||80-98||Loss||-104||8 h 19 m||Show|
After a slow start the Rockets are really coming on now with three straight wins to start this road trip. The Thunder have won six straight as well, and there were a couple quality wins in there for sure, but for the most part they have beaten up on some dregs. And they are in a tough spot here on a back-to-back and with Westbrook questionable for tonight. This line will change once Westbrook’s status is determined as he nurses an injured ankle. We like the Rockets whether he plays or not, and he probably won’t be near 100% if he does. Not only are they on a back-to-back but they are playing their third game in four nights while the Rockets were off the last two nights. After their slow start, the Rockets can’t afford to take a night off. They need to have a real successful road trip then their slow start will be forgotten. Houston normally plays well here and is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these clubs.
|11-07-18||76ers +3 v. Pacers||Top||100-94||Win||100||8 h 50 m||Show|
The Sixers have yet to win or cover on the road this season, but they have had some inflated expectations to start the season. But we think those oddsmakers expectations have gone down and we love them getting points tonight in a game they will fight hard to win. They have had a really tough road schedule to start off with. In their last game, also a road game, they were blown out by the likely-lottery team Brooklyn. That has to be embarrassing for this team that has such lofty expectations. So does the 0-5 road start. Not sure that they will get it tonight, but we think they will have extra motivation to play their best, and at their best this is a better team than the Pacers. Indiana has lost two of their last three here at home, and we think there’s a good chance that they drop this one as well.
|11-06-18||BYU +14 v. Nevada||Top||70-86||Loss||-110||29 h 37 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #749 BYU over Nevada (11p.m., Tuesday, November 6 CBSSN) Nevada is ranked in the top 10 and that is deservedly so. But they have not looked sharp in the exhibition season getting blown out by Washington at home and struggling for 33 minutes against San Francisco State. They have not been shooting the ball well and struggling on defense. BYU can match their experience and this team is always pesky and used to playing in tough road environments. The Cougars are predicted to finish ahead of Saint Mary’s in the WCC Standing (2nd overall) just behind mid-major power Gonzaga. BYU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against MWC foes. Look for a Wolf Pack victory by 7-10 points giving us the cover with the underdog.
|11-06-18||Nets v. Suns +1.5||Top||104-82||Loss||-100||9 h 38 m||Show|
The Suns stopped a seven-game losing streak last time out as they hosted Memphis, and we think this team is a tad underrated right now. They are not a good team, don’t get us wrong. But Devin Booker is back in the mix for the Suns, and he is a star in this league and gives his team a chance to win every night. He will help their scoring against this small total (for this season in the NBA, at least). And he gives the Suns a great chance to win here at home tonight. Phoenix has played just a brutal schedule, and they have been considerable underdogs in many games this season. But they have covered three of their last four, and we think they will get the win tonight against another probable lottery team from the east.
|11-05-18||Cavs +5 v. Magic||Top||100-102||Win||100||7 h 45 m||Show|
Neither of these teams is any good, and this is anybody’s game, in our opinion, and we have to grab the points in this matchup. Orlando is 1-4 ATS this season at home and they failed to cover in their one game as a listed favorite, while the Cavs are 3-1 ATS on the road, so they have done their best work in this situation they are in tonight. The Cavs have also covered 8 of the last 11 games here in Orlando, and we think they have a good chance to win this one outright. Orlando is a team we like to back when they are getting major points as they normally excel as a double-digit dog. But we have to fade them here in the favorites role in what we expect to be a close game.
|11-04-18||Grizzlies v. Suns +4||Top||100-102||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
This is a major trap game for the Grizzlies, who we don’t think are as good as their 5-2 record would indicate. They are coming off a huge win at Utah last time out, and they play at Golden State next, so we think they are due for a letdown in this matchup. And we don’t think the Grizzlies should be this big of a road favorite over anyone. And this is a major revenge spot for the Suns, who got thumped a little over a week ago in Memphis. We expect them to play much better here against a familiar opponent, and with the venue now more favorable. We think they have a great chance for the straight up win in this matchup, and we think there is value in this line.
|11-04-18||Chargers v. Seahawks -1||Top||25-17||Loss||-115||119 h 14 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #468 Seattle Seahawks over Los Angeles Chargers (1:05p.m., Sunday, November 4 CBS) The Seahawks have been playing outstanding football of late and will enter this game having won 4 of their last 5 games. It could be 5-0 if not for a 2-point loss to the Rams. QB Wilson is getting the job done with a bunch of unheralded playmakers around him. They were dominate for three quarters last week against the Lions and look for more of the same this Sunday at home against the Chargers. LA is still banged up on both sides of the football and might be without some key playmakers for this game. LA is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye. Seattle still has a lot of home games remaining this season and I look for them to win all of them and make the playoffs as a wild card. The Chargers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Seattle has covered the spread 4 of their last 5 games.
|11-03-18||Celtics -1.5 v. Pacers||Top||101-102||Loss||-110||26 h 22 m||Show|
Both teams have been very good lately, but with the Celtics big win over Milwaukee on Thursday this team is trending up big time. Boston has been one of the most consistent teams to wager on the last couple seasons, and we really like them with this short line on Saturday. Indiana has won four of six but they have had some dregs on their schedule lately, while Boston is on a four-game winning streak against very solid competition, and their confidence is sky high after knocking the Bucks from the ranks of the unbeaten on Thursday. Boston is playing some of the best defense in the NBA right now, and that will be the difference here on Saturday.