|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|06-07-19||Raptors v. Warriors -4.5||Top||105-92||Loss||-107||8 h 6 m||Show|
The Warriors can win this game and be right back in the driver’s seat for the series. They have been here before and had some scares in the postseason before, but they have so much experience and they won’t be scared and will just take care of business. They get some help tonight as Klay Thompson should be back in the lineup, and they know there’s a chance that Durant could be back for Game 5. They know there’s no reason to panic. We think scoring will be a lot better for the home team from Game 3 with Klay back here, and Toronto has shown they are hot on offense as well. But we think the Warriors will play with a purpose here with their backs against the wall, and we think they take care of business tonight.
|06-05-19||Raptors v. Warriors -4.5||123-109||Loss||-100||9 h 56 m||Show|
The Warriors have gone through some big lulls this season as a team. We wondered at points in the season if this team was as good as previous seasons. But when we get down to the nitty gritty we just think they were bored at times. This team has accomplished so much and the desire didn’t seem to be there. But when they were challenged, either after a bad game or by facing some kind of adversity, this team normally responded very well. And we think with these injuries tonight the team is facing that the players on the court are going to play with a chip on their shoulder. When this team and Curry are motivated, good things normally happen for them. They have Toronto right where they want them having stolen a game in Canada. We think the Warriors will rely more on defense tonight since they are likely to be missing a lot of scoring. The numbers don’t show it because of the pace, but this is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. And we think Curry will lift his game up enough to cover this number.
|06-02-19||Warriors +2 v. Raptors||109-104||Win||102||32 h 38 m||Show|
The Warriors are much better than they played in Game 1. They had a lot of time off before this series, and sometimes it is tough for a team to get into gear after that much time away from the court. But at times recently the Warriors need a kick in the butt to get things going, and that Game 1 result probably was the thing to do the trick. This team is in pretty bad shape if they go down 2-0, and we expect them to play with some purpose tonight and get this series back on track. And remember, the Raptors have played much more basketball in this playoffs with some long series, and Golden State should have some good energy here despite some injuries.
|05-30-19||Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors||109-118||Loss||-105||9 h 48 m||Show|
When we set this total for the Game 1 matchup we came up with a number around 207. We think there is some great value in the under. The Raptors slowed the game down a lot in the Eastern Conference Finals, and we think they will employ the same strategy here. Both teams are fresh with a lot of time off, and that means they will have a lot of energy for defense. And with the extra time off, the offenses might be rusty. We expect some cold shooting, especially in the first quarter before teams get warmed up. And we just have to love the Warriors getting points here. They have all the experience. They know this might be their last chance at a championship as there are a lot of questions in the offseason with this roster. They are just flat out a much better team – throw the regular season results out as the Warriors barely cared this season during some stretches but they are in full playoff form now and playing some of their best basketball of the season despite injuries.
|05-25-19||Bucks +2 v. Raptors||94-100||Loss||-107||8 h 38 m||Show|
This is a season-defining game for both teams, and we expect both clubs to be at their top level defensively. Offense hasn’t consistently worked out for either of these teams consistently in this series, so we think they will rely on defense to get the job done. While the Bucks are on the ropes here and facing elimination, they are just a small underdog and if they win they will be a pretty big favorite for Game 7. Despite some real lackluster play in the last two games, we still think they are the better team and they will put their best foot forward here. We just can’t see them playing three straight duds. We still think they have a great chance to win this series.
|05-23-19||Raptors v. Bucks -7||Top||105-99||Loss||-109||7 h 27 m||Show|
Everyone remembers the last game in an NBA playoff series, and the Bucks were routed in Game 4 in Toronto. We will give this team a mulligan, however, as we think they just had a bad game. It happens to the best of teams. But if Game 3 had gone a little different, this could easily be an elimination game for the Bucks. We think this is a great spot for them to rebound, and we don’t at all think that the Raptors have the momentum in this series. The Bucks will play their best at home and have a chance to close it out in Game 6 in Toronto. We took the over last time out as these teams had just come off Double OT and were tired. They should be more well rested here, and we expect a lower-scoring game. We think the defenses will really step up as this is a crucial game in what is now a 3-game series. And we think there’s a decent chance this could be a blowout and that the Raptors will be held to a real low score.
|05-21-19||Bucks -3 v. Raptors||Top||102-120||Loss||-105||8 h 44 m||Show|
The advantage goes to the better team when two teams are tired, and after the long Game 3 with two overtimes we think that gives the Bucks the advantage here in Game 4. Toronto needed an almost superhuman effort to win Game 3, and we think the Bucks had an off game. But this team is focused and determined and we don’t see them losing this game. We saw what happened after the Denver/Portland four OT game when defense went out the window in the following game with tired legs. We expect to see a similar result here and we think the scoring will be way up from what we saw in regulation in Game 3. We expect more shots to drop, and we think Milwaukee will do everything they can to ensure that they have a chance to close this out in Game 5 back at home, especially now that their probable NBA Finals opponent is already waiting and resting after Golden State swept the Blazers (and they have major injuries they are hoping for extra time to heal).
|05-20-19||Warriors -3 v. Blazers||Top||119-117||Loss||-105||9 h 9 m||Show|
Golden State is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. Maybe some of these players hate Kevin Durant and want to win in spite of him, but they have rallied around each other and things have been working out great. Portland, at the end of Game 3, reminded me of the old Clippers team when they would be close in the playoffs at the end of a game. They just completely fell apart and had no control of the ball. They were just hoisting prayer shots up. They were basically panicking with their season on the line and the Warriors were cool, calm and collected. Portland needed that Game 3 to have any chance in this series. They are sunk now. And with a good chance to win heading into the fourth and with the way they played (and something isn’t right with Lillard right now), we don’t see how they can pick themselves up and be competitive here in this elimination game.
|05-19-19||Bucks +3 v. Raptors||Top||112-118||Loss||-115||22 h 23 m||Show|
The Bucks have now covered in six of the last seven meetings after covers in Games 1 and 2. We think that both conference finals series are kind of mismatches, but especially this one. The Bucks just seem like a team built for the postseason while the Raptors seem more like a regular season club. Just look at what happened with Toronto last season, getting swept by the Cavs when it looked like they had their best team ever and Cleveland struggled all through the regular season. But the Bucks haven’t really faced much adversity in these playoffs and they have made things look easy. We think there’s a good chance that this series could end in a sweep as well, and we think there is nice value here getting the plus points in a game that the Bucks could easily win outright. After their slow start in Game 1 they have looked like the clear superior team here, and we don’t think the change in venue will make a difference for Toronto.
|05-18-19||Warriors v. Blazers -2||Top||110-99||Loss||-109||9 h 19 m||Show|
Game 3 is the most pivotal in a seven-game series. That is especially the case for the Blazers here as they are down 2-0. A loss here would be devastating to their chances in this series. We don’t think they have much of a chance to win this series, but the Warriors are without Durant and they are not as strong as they have been in past years. They have lost the competitive fire a little bit also, which is natural. Portland played well enough to win in Game 2, but the Warriors staged an epic comeback. But the home court will be kinder to the Blazers, and we expect them to win here tonight. These conference finals have been without much drama so far and we expect the refs to give the home team the close calls tonight. Sweeps in both series would be horrible for the bottom line.
|05-17-19||Raptors v. Bucks -6.5||Top||103-125||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
The Bucks were obviously rusty at the start of Game 1 and they went down big to the Raptors early before getting it all together and rallying for the cover. Toronto had come in in better playing form having finished their last series in seven games, but now the Bucks have shaken off the rust and we expect a more complete game from them. We expect the Bucks to have a lot better offensive night, and the total has been adjusted down from Game 1. We think there is value on the over, and we think there’s a great chance that the Bucks could win this one by 10+ if they play as well as they did in the second half in Game 1 all the way through here in Game 2.
|05-15-19||Raptors v. Bucks -6||Top||100-108||Win||100||9 h 36 m||Show|
We couldn’t be happier with this line. The number we had in our mind was around 9, but we knew the bookies would not open with that big of a number. We think the Raptors are getting a little extra shading with the line here because everyone and their mother saw Leonard’s amazing buzzer-beater on SportsCenter. But we think this Game 1 will be pretty one-sided. The Bucks have looked much more impressive than the Raptors in this postseason. They have been chilling for awhile while the Raps finished a grueling seven-game series on Sunday. The Bucks seem incredibly focused in this postseason so we don’t see them being rusty with the time off. But Toronto could sure use some more rest coming into this one. The Bucks won and covered in three of four meetings this season, and two of those games were blowouts. We think they have a very good chance to win this by double-digits. The Bucks were one of the best ATS teams in the NBA at home this season, and we think they are underrated once again tonight. We expect them to take a statement here tonight with a tour de force in Game 1. We also think this total is too high and we think this will be a low-scoring game like Games 1 were for these teams in the last round.
|05-12-19||Blazers +5.5 v. Nuggets||100-96||Win||100||3 h 37 m||Show|
We have always liked the Blazers to advance in this series and we think the line has value here for Game 7 in what we expect to be a close game. Despite the results of this series, the Blazers are the more experienced team, and that will count a lot in a Game 7. We had this line handicapped at 3.5 and we think the Blazers could do even better than that and win this one outright.
|05-10-19||Warriors +7.5 v. Rockets||Top||118-113||Win||100||8 h 3 m||Show|
Kevin Durant has been playing out of his mind in the postseason and the rest of the Warriors supporting cast has been a disappointment most of the time. But this is the defending NBA champ and the current NBA dynasty, and they still have Curry, Thompson and Green, and a solid team all around. They also have a great coach. We think they will do what they can to make this a competitive game. Curry isn’t going to stay cold forever, and with more responsibility tonight we think he has a great game and takes control. We expect a close game here tonight.
|05-09-19||Nuggets v. Blazers -3.5||108-119||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
A team is normally never as bad or good as their last game, and we are willing to give the Blazers a mulligan for that one as the game just got out of control and they could never recover. But otherwise this has been a competitive series and we don’t see the Blazers going away that easy. This team has a lot of determination and grit, and they have a great home crowd behind them tonight against a Denver team that is a nice squad for sure but they aren’t a championship-caliber team at this point. We think there’s a great chance for a comfortable win for the home team here.
|05-09-19||Raptors -2 v. 76ers||101-112||Loss||-107||7 h 1 m||Show|
Toronto has taken back control of this series by winning the last two games and putting the Sixers on the verge of elimination. Now they should have a sense of urgency cine the Bucks closed out the Celtics in the East. They don’t want this series to go to seven games. The Sixers lack of depth is starting to glaringly show as the starters are becoming less effective as the series wears on and Embiid has been a dud all series long. We think Toronto closes this one out tonight.
|05-08-19||Rockets +6.5 v. Warriors||99-104||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
We think there is a very good chance that Golden State loses this series and that their reign is coming to an end. They face a ton of questions in the offseason and this squad just doesn’t seem to have the same fire that they have had in past seasons. They also don’t look as confident. All the pressure seems to be on Golden State as the Rockets are expected to lose and they can play more free and just play their game. They have taken momentum in this series and we think they will compete hard here with a chance for the outright win.
|05-08-19||Celtics +9 v. Bucks||Top||91-116||Loss||-110||7 h 14 m||Show|
Boston hasn’t played well in this series and this season has been a disappointment and there will probably be a shakeup once this team gets bounced in this series. But this team does have heart, and we don’t think they will roll over like some other teams would facing insurmountable odds. We can see the Celtics leaving it all on the court tonight in this elimination game. We have to think Coach Brad Stevens will have his team compete for four quarters and we just think this is too many points as this is the biggest value for Boston during this entire series.
|05-07-19||76ers v. Raptors -6||Top||89-125||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
The Sixers have been very competitive in this series but Toronto gutted out a Game 4 win in Philly and now the series has turned into a best-of-3, with Toronto having two games at home. They were always our pick to win this series and they just have a deeper team and more experience in the postseason. The Sixers have not played well here in Toronto has they are 1-5 ATS in their last six visits, and we have a feeling the Raps will break this series open tonight with a comfortable win and put the Sixers on the brink of elimination.
|05-06-19||Bucks v. Celtics -1.5||Top||113-101||Loss||-104||6 h 4 m||Show|
This is really crunch time for the Celtics and they need a win here or there is a good chance this series will slip away. Boston is one of the better defensive teams in the league but they didn’t play well in that regard in the last two games. But they are much better than they have showed, and we expect them to batten down the hatches tonight and play a great defensive game. In Game 1 they held the Bucks to 90 points, and although they may not hold them to that low of a score we think they will make adjustments here as they have one of the best coaches in the league. We expect a very strong showing from the home team tonight.
|05-05-19||Nuggets v. Blazers -2.5||116-112||Loss||-109||29 h 47 m||Show|
Wow that was an amazing game in Game 3 even though we came up a bucket short on our pick. But after 4 overtimes and these teams giving everything they had, we think this game will be a grind, and we think the pace will be slowed down here. These players played their hearts out and played so many minutes and ran so far. There just isn’t going to be a lot left in the tank. And we think that will contribute to a low-scoring game. And we think this rare situation plays to the home team as they will be more comfortable at home and they can feed extra energy off the home fans.
|05-05-19||Raptors +2 v. 76ers||101-96||Win||100||25 h 19 m||Show|
A lot is on the line for the Raptors in this game. They bombed out of the playoffs last season in getting swept by Cleveland, and that was supposed to be their best team ever. Now this season they are supposed to have an even better team, and they need to even this series up badly and make it a three-game series. Kawhi Leonard is probably 50/50 to come back next season, but an early playoff exit here probably for sure sends him out the door. We think the Raps will give 100% after a lackluster performance in Game 3.
|05-04-19||Warriors v. Rockets -3||Top||121-126||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
Both of the first two games in the Bay Area were close, but we just don’t see the Warriors cruising through this series without facing a little adversity and this is a must win for the Rockets tonight. We think that they will get the job done here. Houston has always gave the Warriors a challenge and this Warriors team just doesn’t seem to have the same fire that we have seen in past seasons.
|05-03-19||Nuggets v. Blazers -4||137-140||Loss||-108||10 h 47 m||Show|
As we have stated before, Game 3 is a crucial one in a 7-game series, and we see the Blazers as the clear favorite to win this series. They really flexed their muscle in that Game 2 win, and Denver’s postseason inexperience shined through. Both of these teams are much different at home than on the road, and the fact that Portland had such a dominating performance in Game 2 makes us think the momentum has swung their direction in a big way.
|05-03-19||Bucks v. Celtics -2||Top||123-116||Loss||-100||7 h 21 m||Show|
Game 3 is the most crucial in a seven-game series and the team that wins normally goes on to win the series. We see the home team winning tonight and we think Boston will win this series. This team didn’t play well in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal and Boston is built for the postseason. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings in Boston and 4-11 ATS in the last 15 meetings overall. We think the very deep Celtics team matches up well in this series and we expect them to lock down on defense against this inflated total.
|05-02-19||Raptors -1.5 v. 76ers||Top||95-116||Loss||-109||7 h 25 m||Show|
Road teams have done well in the postseason thus far and the bookies have also posted too high of totals in these playoffs with the under trending, and that is the direction we see for this Game 3 tonight. While we liked Philly getting a fair bit of points in their road games in Toronto, we still think this is the Raptors series to lose, and with them losing Game 2 the urgency is now raised and they need a win here tonight. We expect them to get it. This is an important game for both teams, and we see both locking down on the defensive end, but the Raptors will have a bit more success on offense.
|04-30-19||Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors||Top||109-115||Loss||-108||10 h 36 m||Show|
Houston was in a position to win Game 1. We think this series is much closer than the oddsmakers think, and Golden State seems to have lost some of their fire and they just don’t have the same swagger as we have seen the last few seasons. The refs really screwed the Rockets in Game 1, and this has been massively publicized. If we see the same thing here in Game 2, there will be major scrutiny from the officials so we think the Rockets will get a fair shake here, and maybe even get more calls than the Warriors. The Game 1 total went way under and we still think this Game 2 number is too high and we just don’t see a free flowing game and we think every possession will be challenged on each end of the court.
|04-30-19||Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks||102-123||Loss||-104||7 h 3 m||Show|
We really like the Celtics in this series and we think they have a great chance to win the east. This team underperformed in the regular season, but the playoffs are a whole different game and the Celtics are built for the postseason. We expect a very competitive game here, and the oddsmakers didn’t really make much of an adjustment from the Game 1 line despite a 22-point win for Boston. We think this game will be more competitive because the Bucks season is basically on the line here, but Boston won’t roll over and be satisfied with their Game 1 win, and both teams should lock down on defense in what we expect will be another low-scoring game.
|04-29-19||Blazers +4 v. Nuggets||Top||113-121||Loss||-102||26 h 22 m||Show|
We are pretty confident the Blazers will win this series and we obviously like them in Game 1 here getting the points. Portland made easy work of OKC in their first-round matchup and they are the more well rested team coming in to this series as the Nuggets had a grueling seven-game series where they almost blew it at the end on their home court. Many, including us, were skeptical of the Blazers in the postseason after losing Nurkic, but they have proved us wrong and this team just looks ready to head to the conference finals after a disappointing playoff exit last season. Most of these Game 1s have gone under while these teams figure each other out in the early going, and this total looks a tad high as well.
|04-29-19||76ers +6.5 v. Raptors||94-89||Win||100||24 h 50 m||Show|
Toronto got off to a strong first quarter in Game 1 and these two teams played pretty close the rest of the way and no other quarter was decided by more than two points even though the Raptors won all four quarters en route to a 13-point win. We think Philly will play a more complete game in this one. Some of the big names for the Sixers didn’t play well and we expect a better effort this time out and we think this series is closer than the Game 1 results indicate.
|04-28-19||Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors||100-104||Win||100||7 h 32 m||Show|
In the Warriors series against the Clippers, Los Angeles played pretty well. But it was also the struggles of the Warriors that allowed this series to be so competitive. And Game 6 would have been a lot closer if Lou Williams didn’t miss so many shots for LA. Now Curry and Thompson are banged up. This team just doesn’t have the fire that they had in previous years. They have a quick turnaround for this series. And they play a Rockets team that just embarrassed a pretty good Utah team. Houston could win outright.
|04-28-19||Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks||112-90||Win||100||4 h 1 m||Show|
We think this will be one of the tightest series and best ones in recent years. Despite the regular season records we think these teams match up well together. As long as they keep giving us lines like this for the Celtics we will take them. We can see each team winning on the other’s home court at some point in this series. We think this Game 1 will be a close one regardless.
|04-27-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -6||Top||86-90||Loss||-108||9 h 53 m||Show|
We like the home team to get the job done tonight. The Nuggets have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA. They have lacked playoff experience coming into the postseason, but they have it now and they have a chance to advance here at home, and we expect them to get the job done. They have blown out the Spurs a couple times in this series, and we think this one has a chance to be a 10+-point win.
|04-26-19||Warriors v. Clippers +10||Top||129-110||Loss||-110||23 h 7 m||Show|
The Warriors were the biggest NBA favorites in a series in NBA history for this series with the No. 8 Clippers. But now here we are heading to Game 6 at Staples Center after Los Angeles shocked the world with a Game 5 win in the Bay Area. This Clippers team has been underrated all season, and they have gotten even better as the season has worn on. They played an absolutely masterful game in Game 5 and they dominated in crunch time of that game. They have nothing to lose here and all the pressure is on the Warriors. This Golden State team has had issues all season. They were one of the worst betting teams all year. They had some head-scratching losses, especially at home. They don’t seem to have the same fire they have played with the last couple years, and they don’t seem to get along as well when they face adversity. They will likely win on Friday, but we think there’s a real good chance that they might miss out on a championship this year. And we might see the end of a dynasty as this team likely won’t have the same makeup. But there is no reason to think this won’t be a competitive game. This is Ralph Lawler’s, the long-time Clippers announcer, final home game. He is well loved by the team and fans and we think that’s an extra motivation for the team. You would think this Game 5 loss would be a wake up call for Golden State but they still lost another at home after Game 2, and they should have played with more determination in Game 5 after seeing Houston close out Utah in their series and knowing the team that gave them lots of trouble last year is getting extra rest. That they failed in this crucial spot says a lot about the team this season, and we think this will be an extremely competitive game on Friday.
|04-25-19||Nuggets v. Spurs -3||Top||103-120||Win||100||8 h 37 m||Show|
This looks like a seven-game series all the way, and Denver has always seemed to be one of the more vulnerable teams in the Western Conference playoffs. They have no postseason experience, and no matter what they did in the regular season, the postseason is a whole different animal, and the Spurs have all the stripes in this situation. They also have one of the best coaches in the game, and we think he will find a way to extend this series. We think the Spurs will get the job done on the defensive end, and this one will be a lot different than Game 4, the only time in the last few years that the Nuggets have had any success playing in San Antonio. Also with the lack of drama in the postseason this year in regards to long series, we think the refs will really be on the side of the Spurs as the NBA would love a Game 7 in the first round. And although there is no fix in, the home team normally gets the calls in these situations.
|04-24-19||Jazz +8.5 v. Rockets||Top||93-100||Win||100||7 h 1 m||Show|
Utah didn’t show a lot of life in this series until Game 4 and they played a really amazing game. We think there’s a good chance that momentum carries over here tonight. Some of the teams that faced elimination last night didn’t even put up a fight, but the Jazz are a very good team and one that has a lot of pride. They know they are right back in this series with an upset tonight and then a home game for Game 6. We think they will leave it all on the court tonight.
|04-23-19||Nets +8.5 v. 76ers||Top||100-122||Loss||-100||7 h 19 m||Show|
It has been a great season for the Nets but their season might end tonight. But the way this team has played all season, we think they put up a good fight tonight. The Sixers have covered three straight in this playoff series but we have an inflated number here in Game 5 and we think that Brooklyn will do all they can to keep this competitive. The Nets will just come to work and they don’t have any big pressure tonight and we think the shots will fall and that this will be a close game.
|04-22-19||Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz||91-107||Loss||-110||10 h 18 m||Show|
We thought that this series would be more competitive but the Jazz have played awful here and they just aren’t matching up well. They are toast and once you go down 3-0 there is no saving you. We think Game 3 sapped the rest of the Jazz’s competitive spirit and we think they will go out without a whimper tonight.
|04-21-19||Warriors -8.5 v. Clippers||Top||113-105||Loss||-105||24 h 17 m||Show|
The big comeback win in Game 2 was a wakeup call for the Warriors. And it’s not like they played bad all game in Game 2 as they were up by 31 points in the second half. They just took their foot off the gas and couldn’t get it started again. But now this team is motivated and they should win here by double digits. We do think this Warriors team will see some adversity in later rounds but this series is a mismatch. The future looks bright for the Clippers, but this year their surprising playoff appearance will be a brief one.
|04-20-19||Rockets v. Jazz -3||104-101||Loss||-103||52 h 15 m||Show|
If the Rockets win this game they will probably sweep the series, and we don’t see that happening. The Jazz are a very strong team and they will be back home to make their stand, and we see it working out well for them. Utah will lock down on defense and their home crowd will fuel them to the win. Just because two games were so lopsided doesn’t mean this series is over, and Utah will find a way to get it done.
|04-20-19||Bucks -8.5 v. Pistons||Top||119-103||Win||100||50 h 54 m||Show|
This series hasn’t been even remotely competitive so far. We don’t think the change in venue will make much of a difference here. The teams have had two nights off and that favors the Bucks here as we think they will be rested and ready to put the Pistons one way from elimination. Detroit is the worst team in the postseason, and we don’t see them putting up much of a fight at home as the Pistons are living up to their reputation as the worst team in the playoffs this year.
|04-19-19||Blazers +8 v. Thunder||108-120||Loss||-107||27 h 20 m||Show|
While we think the Thunder have a good chance to win this game, and we admit we were wrong about them the two games in Portland, the Blazers have looked like the far superior team thus far in this series. And we think they are getting too many points in this one as we had this game handicapped at 4.5. The Blazers remember getting swept out of the postseason last year and they will want to get this series over with quickly in order to forget that debacle. This series looks like a possible sweep if the Blazers can win tonight, and the way these two teams have played, that doesn’t seem to far fetched.
|04-19-19||Celtics +3 v. Pacers||Top||104-96||Win||100||26 h 16 m||Show|
Neither of the first two games has come anywhere near 200, yet the oddsmakers are hesitant to put a total under 200 here. Indiana has been the best defensive team in the NBA all year. But Boston has stepped their defense up big time and they have held the Pacers to an average of 82 ppg in the two contests thus far. The Pacers have also struggled with their shooting. We don’t see either team breaking out on the offensive end, but Boston will do enough to get the job done and we expect them to win this game tonight.
|04-18-19||Warriors -8.5 v. Clippers||Top||132-105||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
The Clippers are getting a lot of love for their historic Game 2 comeback in the Bay Area. While the Clippers certainly earned that win, a lot had to do with poor coaching decisions from Golden State and an apathetic attitude from the team when they were up big. This Golden State team hasn’t had the fire that they have had in recent years. This team seems to need motivation to come from outside. But they should have that motivation tonight, and we see this one as being a blowout as the Warriors give a superhuman defensive effort in LA.
|04-17-19||Jazz +7 v. Rockets||Top||98-118||Loss||-107||9 h 39 m||Show|
The Jazz normally bounce back well after a bad loss, like the one they had in Game 1, and they are 4-0 ATS the last four games when getting beat by 10 or more in the previous game. We really like this Jazz team and we think they will make adjustments to keep this close in Game 2. We don’t think this Houston team is as good as last year’s club, and they are vulnerable in this game. The Jazz have been very good as big dogs this season, and we think they will come through on Wednesday night.
|04-17-19||Pistons +15 v. Bucks||99-120||Loss||-106||7 h 9 m||Show|
This is just a couple too many points. No NBA player likes to be embarrassed like the Pistons were in Game 1, and we think they give a much better effort here in this Game 2 matchup. The Bucks will sweep this series. But after Game 1 the bookies inflated this number when conventional wisdom says the Pistons will probably give a better effort here. It’s hard to blow any NBA team out in consecutive games. Detroit will keep this one within double digits.
|04-17-19||Pacers v. Celtics -7||91-99||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
Boston really locked down on the defensive end in Game 1, holding the Pacers to only 74 points. Their offense wasn’t good, either, but they did enough to cover comfortably. We expect them to play with the same defensive tenacity in Game 2, and we think their offense will be better here tonight. We think the Celtics are a real threat in these playoffs despite their subpar regular season, and we think they want to end this first-round series in four or five games.
|04-16-19||Thunder +1.5 v. Blazers||Top||94-114||Loss||-105||10 h 38 m||Show|
Really like the Thunder to win this one. We think they outplayed the Blazers in Game 1, but the poor shooting from Paul George doomed this team in the second half. They were still within the cover at the end of the game, and we expect a much better effort from them tonight. They owned the Blazers during the regular season, and they have a big advantage on the inside with Nurkic injured. It’s interesting to see where the bookies make their adjustments from Game 1 to Game 2, and in this series it looks like they expect the Thunder to be much more competitive. And that is what we think as well.
|04-15-19||Clippers v. Warriors -13||Top||135-131||Loss||-105||10 h 46 m||Show|
We cashed a big play in Game 1 with Golden State and we expect much of the same result here in Game 2. The Clippers were just happy to make the playoffs. They would never admit it publicly, but they don’t expect to do much in the postseason without any star players. You could tell once the postseason was locked up that this team kind of went in the toilet. They actually played a pretty good game in Game 1 yet still didn’t cover. And we are getting a similar line here for Game 2. There was a lot of chippy play in Game 1 and that will help motivate the Warriors in Game 2, and this is a series they can easily sweep and have some rest before the second round. We think they will do everything in their power to make that happen. We expect a big point total from the home team tonight.
|04-15-19||Nets v. 76ers -7.5||123-145||Win||100||7 h 6 m||Show|
The Sixers looked bamboozled in the first game and they just weren’t ready to compete. But tonight is now a must win for the team and this team just has to get it done tonight. If they don’t, this whole process that the team has been going through for years will be a big disappointment. We think they will come out and play their game tonight, and we expect a strong effort from the home team. Brooklyn caught lightning in a bottle in Game 1 and everything went right for them. We don’t see a repeat here in Game 2.
|04-14-19||Thunder +3.5 v. Blazers||Top||99-104||Loss||-105||4 h 36 m||Show|
Even though the Thunder won almost 50 games in the regular season, it was somewhat of a disappointing year with more downswings than the fans would have liked. But you can throw the regular season out the window now. This is a whole new season, and the playoffs are a whole new beast when it comes to team performance. And with two stars on the team, the Thunder have a very good chance to win this series. We think they have a great chance to steal Game 1. The Blazers got swept last season by the Pelicans in the playoffs. We think that is very telling that this is a regular-season team. Nurkic was injured for Portland and is out for the playoffs, and the Thunder have a big advantage down low. The Thunder won and covered all four games these teams played this season, and we think they match up very well here.
|04-13-19||Clippers v. Warriors -12.5||Top||104-121||Win||100||8 h 5 m||Show|
This Clippers team snuck up on the Warriors in the first meeting of the season, winning straight up. They played them close in the second game as well. But Golden State figured out they just couldn’t take the night off against this team and they blew out LA in the next two meetings. This Clippers team was great for us all season long. But you get the feeling this squad just wanted to make the playoffs. Since they locked up a spot they have been playing pretty lousy. They lost three of their last four, and the only win was against a Utah team that rested their starters , and the game went to OT. We think this series will be a quick one, and the Warriors will show no mercy on LA. These teams just played, and it wasn’t even a game. Golden State played most the fourth quarter with scrubs in there. They won by almost 30. Not sure why this game would be any different.
|04-13-19||Nets +5.5 v. 76ers||111-102||Win||100||2 h 16 m||Show|
The Nets come into this game with momentum as they have won three straight to close out the regular season. Embiid is listed as doubtful for Philly as we compose this writeup, and that helps the Nets immensely. The Sixers have one of the best starting 5s in the NBA, but this team just doesn’t have a lot of depth, and this to us seems like a team that might flame out quickly in the postseason, especially if Embiid doesn’t get healthy quickly. We see this as a very competitive, decently low-scoring matchup.
|04-10-19||Thunder -4.5 v. Bucks||Top||127-116||Win||100||7 h 20 m||Show|
The Spurs, Thunder and Clippers are all in play for the No. 8 seed tonight and the dubious task of taking on Golden State in the first round. These teams want to avoid that. A win here and the Thunder avoid that fate. We think this is a glorified playoff game for them in that respect, and we think they give their all here since the postseason doesn’t start until the weekend. No reason to hold anything back against a Bucks team that will have their minds on the postseason.
|04-10-19||Pacers +2 v. Hawks||135-134||Win||100||7 h 20 m||Show|
The Pacers are locked into their seeding in the playoffs and will travel to Boston for Game 1 over the weekend. But they have been slumping towards the end of the season, and they will want some positive momentum heading into the playoffs. Atlanta has been a nice surprise and they have a bright future. But we don’t think they match up with a motivated Indiana team tonight.
|04-09-19||Raptors v. Wolves +7||120-100||Loss||-101||7 h 54 m||Show|
The Wolves are out of the playoffs. But this team has been playing well down the stretch and it’s clear they aren’t content to tank for Lottery positioning. They have covered three straight heading into this game, and this is their last home game as they finish the season in Denver tomorrow. The Raptors are stable in their playoff positioning so they don’t really have any reason to worry about this game, and we think this line is inflated tonight as we expect a close, hard-fought game.
|04-09-19||Warriors v. Pelicans +9||112-103||Push||0||7 h 54 m||Show|
We have been going against the Warriors a lot all season. It worked out great for a long time as they have been one of the worst ATS teams this season. They have been on a surge lately, however. But they now have the No. 1 seed on lockdown and this team will not care about this game at all. The starters will have very limited minutes here. This is the season finale for the Pelicans, so there is no reason for them to not go all out tonight. A win here would be sweet in what was a very disappointing season overall. We expect a close game here.
|04-09-19||76ers v. Heat -5||Top||99-122||Win||100||6 h 28 m||Show|
This is a must-win game for the Heat. They need to win out and get help for the postseason. This is also possibly Wade’s last home game as he heads into retirement. The Heat have been floundering lately, but because of these factors and the fact that the Sixers don’t have a lot of motivation here, we think the Heat will play their best game in some time tonight. It probably won’t be enough because they need help, but we think they will want to send Wade out a winner in his last home game and we expect the team to rally around him tonight.
|04-09-19||Celtics v. Wizards -4.5||116-110||Loss||-109||6 h 55 m||Show|
Boston is locked into its playoff position and they could care less about this game. The starters will see limited minutes if they even play, and the team that Washington fields on the court tonight will be the more talented one. They will want to end the season on a positive note, just like Boston, but this is their last game and at home, and we think they want to go out on a winning note in what was otherwise a forgettable season.
|04-07-19||Clippers +11.5 v. Warriors||Top||104-131||Loss||-109||7 h 26 m||Show|
The Clippers have played pretty lousy the last couple games, but there will be some good motivation for this team in this game. Mainly that they want to do everything possible to avoid the Warriors in the first round. The Clippers have covered in four of the last five meetings. The Warriors have essentially locked in the No. 1 seed and they don’t have a whole lot to play for. They can win this game without giving 100% effort, and they might not even want the Clips to drop to the No. 8 seed as they might want to see a different opponent.
|04-07-19||Nets +3.5 v. Pacers||108-96||Win||100||4 h 57 m||Show|
The Eastern Conference playoff race is tightly-contested at the bottom, and Nos. 6-8 could all miss the playoffs if they don’t win down the stretch. Brooklyn is certainly in that situation. The Pacers loss to the Celtics pretty much cemented their first-round meeting, with Boston holding home court, but the Nets need this game badly as they are in the No. 6 slot. They are only 1.5 games ahead of the Heat, in the No. 9 spot, however. They come in on a back-to-back, but we think they will give it their all after beating Milwaukee on Saturday. Also think this total is a couple points too high.
|04-06-19||Texas Tech v. Michigan State -2.5||Top||61-51||Loss||-105||31 h 16 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #802 Michigan State over Texas Tech (8:49p.m., Saturday, April 6 CBS) Michigan State has an advantage over the other 3 teams in Minneapolis in that they have been here many times before. Texas Tech, Virginia, and Auburn are just happy to be here where Coach Izzo has stated be might need a second championship to validate his coaching career. Michigan State knocked out the projected best team in the NCAA Tournament last Sunday and should be able to move onto the final game on Monday. When Michigan State losses in the final four it is generally because they do not have the best team and overachieved to get here. That will not the be the case on Saturday, as Michigan State is the much better offensive team in this match-up and will pull away late to win this game by 5-7 points. The Spartans are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games.
|04-06-19||Auburn +6 v. Virginia||62-63||Win||100||29 h 32 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #803 Auburn over Virginia (6:09p.m., Saturday, April 6 CBS) Just believe Auburn will get hot at some point in this game from the 3-point line and take this game down to the wire. Auburn is the team with a cloud hanging over their shoulder with Bruce Pearl and I believe that has motivated them through this entire country. Virginia has been playing with the most pressure of any team in this tournament and tonight will be no different. They should have lost to Purdue on Saturday and will not be as fortunate as they were in that game. Virginia is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games. Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
|04-06-19||Nets +6 v. Bucks||133-128||Win||100||4 h 6 m||Show|
The Nets have been sliding lately and this team needs a win bad to make the postseason. These teams could meet in the first round of the playoffs. We don’t think this game means much to the Bucks, and they probably won’t want to show a lot here in case these two teams meet next week. But Brooklyn should be highly-motivated here, and we expect them to do everything they can to get the win. This game should be close.
|04-05-19||Lakers v. Clippers -11||122-117||Loss||-109||9 h 16 m||Show|
The Clippers have been pretty much the best team since the all-star break. But they had a big hiccup last time out in a blowout loss to the Rockets. This was a rare game where they just didn’t show up to play. That went very much against the profile of how this team has played all season, and we expect a major bounce back tonight. The Lakers come in on a back-to-back after playing the Warriors last night. They got down big and expended a lot of energy in the comeback, and this looks like a very flat spot for them. We expect the Clippers to win this one by 15+
|04-05-19||Heat -3 v. Wolves||109-111||Loss||-110||7 h 46 m||Show|
This game means nothing for Minnesota, playing an out-of-conference team when their playoff hopes are gone in the dust. But Miami is desperate here as they try to regain the No. 8 seed in the playoffs. They should give everything they have here as they are off tomorrow and then have to play Toronto on the road. That is a less-winnable game, so they have to take care of business here, and that makes this pretty much a must-win game.
|04-04-19||Warriors v. Lakers +13.5||Top||108-90||Loss||-110||10 h 42 m||Show|
The Lakers have covered in five of the last seven meetings. We like the way Los Angeles has been playing and had them against OKC the other night and they had the cover in hand until just missing at the end with some very poor play the last couple minutes of the game. But that broke a streak of five straight covers, and this team is playing hard down the stretch, probably for their coach. Golden State is pretty much assured the No. 1 seed, and we don’t see them giving top effort down the stretch as they rest towards the playoffs.
|04-03-19||Rockets v. Clippers +2||135-103||Loss||-110||9 h 13 m||Show|
The Clippers have covered six of the last seven in this series. They match up well with Houston, and this could be a winnable playoff series for them if they do meet up in the postseason. The Clippers have the best record in the NBA since the all-star break. They have great team chemistry and solid coaching. They are underestimated by the oddsmakers on a nightly basis, and that is the case again tonight. They won both meetings this season already, and we think it’s a point of pride to get the season sweep tonight against Chris Paul, so gave up on the squad.
|04-03-19||Spurs +5 v. Nuggets||85-113||Loss||-105||8 h 44 m||Show|
A team visiting Denver on a back-to-back is another situation where we would probably stay away from said team. But Denver is in a bad spot here too, and they played and failed in Golden State last night in a game that was much bigger than this one. So we think they have just as tough of a back-to-back here tonight. The Spurs have been playing some of their best basketball of the season overall in the last month, and we had this line handicapped at 3 so we see some value here.
|04-03-19||South Florida +6 v. DePaul||96-100||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #717 South Florida over DePaul (8p.m., Wednesday, April 3 ESPNU) Game 2 of this best of three series takes place tonight just outside of Chicago. USF needs to win 1 of the final 2 games to claim the CBI Championship. 64% of the money is coming in on the visitor and DePaul has never been a team good enough to lay this many points with. USF is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games. DePaul is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports
|04-03-19||Celtics +1 v. Heat||112-102||Win||100||6 h 14 m||Show|
Even with their struggles the Celtics are a much stronger team than the Heat. They need to keep winning to start the playoffs at home, and that is a major goal right now. The Heat are trying to hold the No. 8 seed in the EC, and there is a reason they are that low in a down year at the bottom of the EC. These teams played Monday and the Celtics won by 5 at home. Normally in these quick turnaround games we would take the team that lost, but this is crunch time and we think the cream will rise to the top tonight.
|04-02-19||Nuggets v. Warriors -8||102-116||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
The Warriors seem to be rounding into playoff form. This is probably the most important game for them left in the regular season, and we have no doubt that if they really flex their muscle that the Nuggets can’t really compete with them in the Bay Area. Golden State has covered in the last two meetings, and both were blowouts. Golden State has been one of the worst betting teams all season long, but they have been covering more lines lately and have had more dominating performances, and they should be motivated tonight.
|04-02-19||Texas v. TCU -1||Top||58-44||Loss||-115||33 h 31 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #712 TCU over Texas (9:30p.m., Tuesday, April 2 ESPN) I am a big believer in riding teams that have had success in previous NIT Tournament. TCU won this two years ago and has been playing dominating basketball over this tournament winning all three of their games by at least 13 points. The Horned Frogs have beaten Texas twice already this season and the Longhorns still have injuries and I just do not believe they are all that excited to be in this game. This spread is 3 points short and I fully expect TCU to win this game by double digits. TCU has covered the spread against Texas in 5 of their last 6 meetings. TCU is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 neutral site games. Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Shaka Smart has been a disappointing hire thus far and I do not see things changing in this game.
|04-02-19||Lakers +13 v. Thunder||Top||103-119||Loss||-109||7 h 11 m||Show|
This is just too many points for the Thunder to be laying tonight. No team is limping towards the postseason more than OKC. They have lost seven of their last nine overall (against a home-heavy schedule, no less). Their ATS record is the same during that stretch. Yet they are being lined like they are playing well. The Lakers have won four of five and covered in all those games. These young players are playing hard for contracts and pride. We think there is a great chance they can keep this one within double digits, and possibly even win if OKC implodes again. OKC is 0-7 ATS in their last seven against sub-.500 teams!
|04-01-19||Hornets v. Jazz -11.5||102-111||Loss||-100||8 h 8 m||Show|
In a must-win situation last night in the Bay Area, the Hornets fell flat on their faces. They lost by almost 50 points. Teams normally put their best foot forward against the Warriors. The Jazz don’t create the same excitement. The Hornets are now on a back-to-back against another very good team, and we just don’t see how they will be competitive tonight. This just doesn’t seem like a team where pride will kick in but instead will feel sorry for themselves as they are No. 10 in the east with not much hope of rising up unless they won last night and tonight.
|04-01-19||Bucks v. Nets +2||131-121||Loss||-109||7 h 38 m||Show|
Not only are the Bucks coming in on a back-to-back, but they played OT vs. Atlanta on Sunday and now this team has to go on the road to face an underrated Nets club. The Greek Freak and Middleton are both questionable tonight for Milwaukee, and we are pretty confident that the Bucks will err on the side of caution with their two best players with the postseason coming soon. Even if they play, the Nets will play well at home vs. a team that shouldn’t have a lot left in the tank.
|04-01-19||Pistons v. Pacers -5||Top||102-111||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
With Blake Griffin most likely out for the Pistons tonight, we like the Pacers to take care of business here at home tonight. The Pistons never seen to play well here as they are 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings. Indiana has been struggling lately, but they have had a very tough schedule that has been road-heavy. This team plays much better at home, and we expect them to up the defense tonight as they not only need to get back on the winning track but they are trying to get a home playoff series as well.
|04-01-19||DePaul v. South Florida -1.5||61-63||Win||100||8 h 6 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #702 South Florida over DePaul (7p.m., Monday, April 1 ESPN U) This is a best of 3 games series, and it is imperative that USF wins this game with the next two games being played in Chicago. The Bulls are 17-5 at home this season and we will pound them with this short number. DePaul is 3-14 ATS (1 push) in their last 18 games played on Monday. USF is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 nonconference games.
|03-31-19||Hornets +12 v. Warriors||Top||90-137||Loss||-105||24 h 9 m||Show|
Most Golden State lines seem inflated anyways, and this one looks that way as well. That, and the fact they normally get the best effort from their opponents, has factored into them being one of the worst betting teams in the league this season and the worst by far the last couple seasons. And this team could care less about the regular season. They will play to their top level in the playoffs. And they probably have lost a bit of fire after all the championships. But Charlotte needs this game badly as their playoff hopes are on life support. We should see a solid effort from them tonight.
|03-31-19||Michigan State v. Duke -2||68-67||Loss||-109||6 h 40 m||Show|
8 Unit Play. Take #692 Duke over Michigan State (5:05p.m., Sunday, March 31 CBS) Coach K is 11-1 straight-up against Coach Izzo. ENOUGH SAID!
Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports
|03-30-19||Purdue +4.5 v. Virginia||75-80||Loss||-109||9 h 23 m||Show|
2 Unit Play. Take #861 Purdue over Virginia (8:49p.m., Saturday March 30 TBS) Purdue has been hot and if they can stabilize this game early, Virginia will start to feel the pressure of making it to the Final Four. Virginia is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games. Purdue is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games.
|03-30-19||Texas Tech v. Gonzaga -4||75-69||Loss||-112||7 h 44 m||Show|
1 Unit Play. Take 684 Gonzaga over Texas Tech (6:09p.m., Saturday March 30 TBS) Texas Tech would have been down big on Thursday if they were playing Gonzaga instead of Michigan. The Wolverines could not throw the ball into the ocean on Thursday and had trouble scoring points for most of the season. Gonzaga played a tough Florida State team and never really were threatened in that game. Expect them to pull away late and win this game by 7-9 points. Gonzaga is 9-4 ATS in their last 14 games against Big 12 teams.
|03-29-19||Houston v. Kentucky -2.5||58-62||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
3 Unit Play. Take #672 Kentucky over Houston (9:57p.m., Friday, March 29 TBS) Houston has not faced many teams this talented in quite some time and I expect Kentucky to pull away late in the second half and march onto the Elite 8. Houston is legit but I see a Kentucky – North Carolina Elite 8 game that everyone wants. Houston is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against SEC teams. Kentucky is 5-1 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games.
|03-29-19||Wizards v. Jazz -12.5||Top||124-128||Loss||-113||9 h 7 m||Show|
Utah has been a solid ATS betting team this season. But they have been especially good as big favorites as they are 7-2 ATS as a favorite of 11 or more points. These big spreads are normally designed to lure in the public sucker bettors, so when a team like Utah is good at covering these big lines it makes you take notice. The Wizards have lost five of six and this team is just waiting for the pain to end and for the season to finish. They got a win last time out against hapless Phoenix, so they probably has them content. We don’t see them putting up much of a fight here. They have one of the worst defenses in the NBA so we don’t see Utah having many issues putting up enough points to cover this big number. And Utah can play solid D, so they will hold the Wizards score down. Utah has won and covered in six straight meetings in this rare series, and we think they will win this one going away without breaking much of a sweat.
|03-29-19||Auburn v. North Carolina -5.5||97-80||Loss||-109||8 h 14 m||Show|
3 Unit Play. Take #674 North Carolina over Auburn (7:29p.m., Friday, March 29 CBS) Auburn likes to play fast but that should not be any issue for North Carolina. Auburn shot lights out earlier against Kansas and knocked them out in the first 5 minutes of that game. I just do not believe that they can do that again in this game. North Carolina is healthy and I believe they are destined to reach the Elite 8 for a rematch against Kentucky. Auburn is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against ACC teams. North Carolina is 20-8 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 30 games against SEC teams.
|03-28-19||Cavs v. Spurs -12||110-116||Loss||-101||8 h 41 m||Show|
Even though the Spurs have lost thee of four, they had nothing to be embarrassed about in those tough games and overall this team has been playing its best basketball of the season this month. This team is starting to look like a factor in the Western Conference Playoffs and they are probably a team no higher seed wants to face. The Spurs have covered four straight in this series and they will want to get back on the winning track tonight. This is the perfect team to do it against, and we think it will be in blowout fashion.
|03-28-19||Clippers v. Bucks -9||Top||118-128||Win||100||7 h 12 m||Show|
The Clippers are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. We have backed them on many occasions. However, we think tonight is a time to go the other way. They are getting a lot of buzz right now for their recent play. But we think their current record is a bit deceiving as they have played some lousy teams. They have also caught the better teams on their schedule at a bad time (on a back-to-back or after or before playing a big game). This is the last game of a four-game road trip. They have gone 3-0 so far (but against Cleveland, New York, and Minnesota). Even if they get blown out here, they can head home with their heads held high. And that is what we think will happen. The Bucks are the No. 1 ATS team in the NBA this season. We think the Clippers are getting too much credit here and we had this game handicapped above double-digits and we think this one has blowout written all over it.
|03-28-19||Purdue v. Tennessee||Top||99-94||Loss||-110||79 h 17 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #652 Tennessee over Purdue (7:29p.m., Thursday, March 28 TBS) Purdue looked much better than Tennessee in the first two rounds but this is the game that has tripped them up in recent years and 2019 should be no different. Tennessee has experience and did not have to replace 4 of their 5 starters from last season. Purdue shot lights out against Villanova and I just do not believe that they can do that for a second straight game. The Boilermakers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory of more than 20 points in their previous game. Purdue has been blown out in the Sweet 16 the last two years and I see them losing this game by 7-9 points against a hungry Tennessee team.
|03-27-19||Pacers v. Thunder -6||99-107||Win||100||7 h 16 m||Show|
is right for the Thunder tonight, and we expect them to win this one comfortably. They have covered in three of the last four meetings between these teams. The Pacers have covered in only one of the last eight on the road. The Thunder are in the No. 7 spot for the WC playoffs and they will want to avoid the Warriors so they need to move up. Indiana is more secure in their seeding. We think both teams will play strong defense, but we expect the Thunder to come out on top, and there’s a good chance this one is a double-digit win.
|03-27-19||Warriors -10.5 v. Grizzlies||Top||118-103||Win||100||7 h 5 m||Show|
The Warriors are battling with the Nuggets and a couple other teams for the top spot in the west. They have kind of sleepwalked through the regular season, and they have not been a good betting team. But we have seen some indications lately that they are putting forth a better effort, the home loss to Dallas notwithstanding. Three of the last four meetings with Memphis have been Golden State blowouts, and this is a rival and the Warriors always want to play their best against this opponent. We think that they will put their best foot forward tonight.
|03-26-19||Creighton v. TCU -3.5||58-71||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #620 TCU over Creighton (9p.m., March 26 ESPN) TCU won this tournament two years ago and should be able to get back to New York with a victory tonight in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. This will be the Bluejays first road game in the NIT and will lose it by 7-9 points.
|03-26-19||Rockets +4 v. Bucks||Top||94-108||Loss||-115||7 h 12 m||Show|
Never thought it would happen but the Bucks are becoming kind of a public team. This line sure seems inflated to us as we had the Bucks at -1. Houston has been playing well lately. They have been a bit up and down all season, but they seem to be making a strong push as we had towards the playoffs. This is the marquee game of the day and we don’t see this as a letdown spot. We think if both teams are playing their best that this is a pretty even matchup, so getting the points is the way to go here.
|03-26-19||Clippers v. Wolves +2.5||122-111||Loss||-100||7 h 6 m||Show|
Minnesota matches up well with the Clippers and they always seem to play them well. They are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. They have won seven of the last eight meetings straight up. The Clippers have been very hot lately but we think this line is inflated and we had this one handicapped at PK so we think there is nice value here. The Wolves are normally very solid at home and we think they play hard tonight. This game is a coin flip, so getting the points is the only way to go.
|03-26-19||Hawks +1 v. Pelicans||130-120||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
This game has some reverse line movement so that is always a good sign when you are on the team not getting the majority of action. Atlanta has covered four straight in this series, and they have won three of those games. We think that the Hawks are playing hard down the stretch and they seem to want to end the season on a positive note while the future in New Orleans remains unclear and this team is kind of spinning its wheels right now. We like the underdog here to win straight up.
|03-26-19||Celtics -5.5 v. Cavs||116-106||Win||102||6 h 3 m||Show|
Boston has lost four straight and they haven’t been covering a lot of lines. They have had a very tough schedule lately, however, and the oddsmakers seem to have made a big adjustment here so we think this is a very winnable game and coverable line. Not only are the Celtics desperate for a win, but they have won three straight in this series, and they would have covered this line each time. And even without Irving they have the talent to win this one going away as long as they play a solid game.
|03-26-19||Charleston Southern v. Hampton -1.5||67-73||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #632 Hampton over Charleston Southern (7pm., March 26) The home/away records of these two teams are glaring. The Pirates are 11-3 at home and the Buccaneers are 4-10 in road games. Hampton is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
|03-26-19||Presbyterian v. Marshall -5.5||66-83||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #630 Marshall over Presbyterian (7p.m., March 26) Marshall is a tough out at home and sooner or later they will get the 3-ball going and pull away to win this game by double digits. The Herd are 13-3 at home this season and this will be the Blue Hose second straight road game in the CIT. Marshall is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
|03-25-19||Suns +15 v. Jazz||Top||92-125||Loss||-105||10 h 45 m||Show|
We just think that this is too many points. The Suns have been playing some of their best basketball of the season this month, and they have covered more numbers than not in March. Utah is back home after a four-game road set, and these first games back can be tricky, especially against a lousy team like the Suns, as the home team players may be distracted by personal, off-court business. These teams played recently in what turned out to be a blowout Utah win, but the Suns hung in these most of the game until the fourth quarter. We think there’s a good chance to see a more complete game from them tonight since the teams have played recently.
|03-24-19||Nebraska v. TCU -4||72-88||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #900 TCU over Nebraska (9:30p.m., Sunday, March 24 ESPNU) Just do not believe Nebraska can win this game on the road with a depleted roster. If they lose Tim Miles will likely be fired and that should occur against the No. 1 seed. The Frogs won the first game by double digits in the NIT and I see this one as a double-digit victory as well. TCU is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 nonconference games. Nebraska is 2-8 ATS following an ATS loss in their previous game.
|03-24-19||Ohio State v. Houston -5.5||Top||59-74||Win||100||25 h 9 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #872 Houston over Ohio State (8:40p.m., Sunday, March 24 TNT) Ohio State went out in the Round of 32 last season against a mid-major and I see the same thing happening again on Sunday. Houston is legit and dominated for most of the season in the AAC. Unlike Iowa State, the Cougars can rebound, and I do not believe the Buckeyes will be able to dominate on the board in this game. When Ohio State losses games it tends to come big and thus if Houston wins this game, they should easily cover the spread as well. Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games. Houston is 8-3 ATS in their last neutral site games.