|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-07-19||Alabama -5.5 v. Clemson||16-44||Loss||-110||128 h 47 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #152 Alabama Crimson Tide over Clemson Tigers (8p.m., Monday, January 7 ESPN) For the first time in the playoff era an undefeated team will emerge victorious for this game. Both teams were impressive in their semi-final game, but I just cannot go against Alabama especially when the line is under a touchdown. Alabama has a quarterback that can move the ball at will in the passing game and I am just not sure a freshman quarterback will be able to match Tua Tagovailoa blow for blow. Alabama beat Clemson 24-6 last year and I see them winning this game by double digits as well. Just cannot go against Nick Saban in this type of a game. The Crimson Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against ACC teams. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 nonconference games.
|01-01-19||Washington v. Ohio State -6.5||23-28||Loss||-110||149 h 27 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #276 Ohio State Buckeyes over Washington Huskies (5p.m., Tuesday, January 1 ESPN Rose Bowl) Urban Meyer may not be popular with the national media but he is loved in Columbus especially by his staff and he will get the proper sendoff in this game. Ohio State has a huge edge on offense and their defense has been playing much better of late. Washington got pounded by Penn State last year in a New Year’s Six Bowl Game, as the final score was not indicative of how Penn State dominated. Beating Washington State is not that same as beating Ohio State and I just do not believe they can keep this game in single digits. Dwayne Haskins will likely be heading to the NFL after this game and he will want to put on a show in a standalone game in Pasadena. Washington is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
|01-01-19||Kentucky v. Penn State -6.5||27-24||Loss||-106||145 h 27 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #272 Penn State Nittany Lions over Kentucky Wildcats (1p.m., Tuesday, January 1 ABC Citrus Bowl) Kentucky was overanked for most of the season and they are just not a good team whatsoever. Penn State is well coached, and they will be able to score points in this game and I just do not believe Kentucky will be able to keep up. The Wildcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 nonconference games. Penn State is 6-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 nonconference games. Sometimes it is best not to overthink these things. Kentucky is a basketball school and Penn State is a football school. Expect Penn State to win this game by double-digits.
|12-31-18||Michigan State +3 v. Oregon||Top||6-7||Win||100||123 h 26 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #262 Michigan State Spartans over Oregon Ducks (3p.m., Monday, December 31 FOX Redbox Bowl) COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR. Never been a fan of Mario Cristobal as a head coach. He was a very uninspired hire and his recruiting greatness never seems to match his coaching ability. The same cannot be said about Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio, as he gets the most out of his talent and this year is no exception. Oregon may have the edge on offense, but Michigan State has the best defense they have seen all season long and Sparty also had a huge edge in special teams. QB Herbert will play in this game but I believe he is already thinking about the NFL draft and is not that concerned about winning this game. Oregon has been the favorite in their last 3 bowl games and they have lost all of them straight-up (2 of them by double-digits). Michigan State dominated Washington State in their bowl game last year and expect a similar performance this year in a California bowl game. Oregon is 5-15 ATS ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games following a victory in their previous game. Michigan State is 7-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 neutral site games.
|12-29-18||Notre Dame +14 v. Clemson||3-30||Loss||-126||76 h 25 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #255 Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Clemson Tigers (4p.m., Saturday, December 29 ESPN Cotton Bowl) Clemson is getting Alabama like respect with this spread and they just do not warrant it. They have played a very easy schedule this season and outside of their defensive line I believe the Irish match-up well with them. Notre Dame has been playing in big games all season long and they will not be intimidated by this match-up. Brian Kelly is a great offensive mind and they will be able to move the football and score points on Clemson. This is the type of team Clemson just does not see often in the ACC. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games. Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
|12-28-18||Iowa State +3 v. Washington State||26-28||Win||100||57 h 24 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #247 Iowa State Cyclones over Washington State Cougars (9p.m., Friday, December 28 ESPN Alamo Bowl) The line has come down since it was posted in early December and I expect Iowa State to win this game straight-up. Mike Leach has not done well in bowl games since being the coach in Pullman winning just 1 of his 3 games (1-3 ATS). Iowa State is very familiar with this type of offense in the pass happy Big 12 and they have a defense that can slow down Washington State. The Cougars are -5 ATS in their last 5 Big 12 games. The Cyclones is 15-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 22 games against teams with a winning record.
|12-27-18||Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +4||Top||3-35||Win||100||220 h 43 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #238 Wisconsin Badgers over Miami Hurricanes (5:15p.m., Thursday, December 27 ESPN Pinstripe Bowl) Just do not see why Miami is favored in this no buzz rematch from a bowl game last year. Wisconsin picked apart Miami last year and their quarterback had a career game against them. I just get the feeling that they will rekindle some of that magic in this game against a warm weather team playing a late December game in New York City. Wisconsin has won 4 straight bowl games. Miami has lost three straight games and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 bowl games. Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Big 10 teams. Grab the points and expect Wisconsin to win this game straight-up.
|12-15-18||Arizona State v. Fresno State -4||20-31||Win||100||98 h 8 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #206 Fresno State Bulldogs over Arizona State Sun Devils (3:30p.m., Saturday, December 15 ABC Las Vegas Bowl) We have had good success using the MWC team in this game over the years. This is the only bowl game that the MWC gets to play against a Power 5 conference and unlike previous years the MWC team is the favorite in this game. Arizona State got a gift last time out against Arizona who self-destructed and costs them a chance to become bowl eligible. Fresno State is better on both sides of the football and should be able to control this game for 60 minutes. Over the last 2 years under Coach Tedford, the Bulldogs are 18-6 ATS (2 pushes). Arizona State will not have N’Keal Harry for this game and that is a big loss that will be tough to overcome. Arizona State is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against MWC teams.
|12-15-18||North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State||13-52||Loss||-105||50 h 14 m||Show|
2 Unit Play. Take #201 North Texas Mean Green over Utah State Aggies (2p.m., Saturday, December 15 ESPN New Mexico Bowl) We will grab the points in this game since both teams have stud quarterbacks and this should be a high scoring game. Utah State lost their coach and I just do not see them blowing out the Mean Green since their new coach is not on the current staff.
|12-01-18||Fresno State v. Boise State -2.5||19-16||Loss||-110||103 h 59 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #318 Boise State Broncos over Fresno State Bulldogs (7:45p.m., Saturday, December 1 ESPN) The Broncos are the best team in the MWC and playing the championship on the blue turf is a big advantage that the Bulldogs will not be able to overcome. Boise State has won 7 straight games and they have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games against Fresno State. This will not be a blowout, but Boise State just has a knack for pulling out close games especially at home. Usually the Broncos are double digits favorites at home, but we have used them the last two times the spread was low. QB Rypien will go out a winner and we will collect in the process as well.
|12-01-18||Memphis +3.5 v. Central Florida||41-56||Loss||-113||98 h 44 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #309 Memphis Tigers over UCF Golden Knights (3:30p.m., Saturday, December 1 ABC) It ends tonight! The winning streak for the Golden Knights will come to an end on Saturday against a team that nearly beat them in the regular season. It will be imperative for the Tigers to stop the Golden Knights rushing attack and make Darriel Mack beat them through the air. Memphis is 15-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 AAC games. UCF just does not have a path to the College Football Playoff and that will show up in this game, as Memphis wins it straight-up.
|12-01-18||Stanford -2.5 v. California||23-13||Win||100||97 h 58 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #333 Stanford Cardinal over California Golden Bears (3p.m., Saturday, December 1 PAC-12 Network) Stanford has won 8 straight in this series by an average of 20 points per game (6-2 ATS). Stanford has had a brutal schedule this year, but they have regrouped of late having won their last two games. This game comes down to Stanford being efficient on offense and if they can score in the twenties, they will likely win this game. Stanford plays better on the road going 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 road games. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 7 Big Games!
|11-24-18||Notre Dame -10.5 v. USC||24-17||Loss||-107||97 h 7 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #225 Notre Dame Fighting Irish over USC Trojans (8p.m., Saturday, November 24 ABC) USC has a lame duck coach and Notre Dame continues to cover spread and show they are one of the top 4 teams in the country. A win by the Irish will allow them to reach the College Football Playoff. USC has lost 4 of their last 5 games. The Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played at the Coliseum. The talent would indicate a single digit spread but USC has quit and this will be the last game they play in the 2018 season. The favorite has covered the spread in the last 6 meetings. Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 road games. USC is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 nonconference games.
|11-24-18||LSU v. Texas A&M -2||72-74||Push||0||97 h 37 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #210 Texas A&M Aggies over LSU Tigers (7:30p.m., Saturday, November 24 SECN) LSU still gets a lot publicity for beating Georgia but they still have the same issues that have plagued this team for years. Their offense is vanilla and Texas A&M has the much better offensive mind in Jimbo Fisher. If the Aggies defense can stop the running attack of the Tigers they will win this game by double-digits. The favorite is 7-0 ATS (1 push) in the last 8 meetings. The previous regime struggled in November and Coach Fisher knows the importance of finishing strong and getting the 8th victory of the season. Texas A&M is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
|11-24-18||Arizona State v. Arizona +2||Top||41-40||Win||100||93 h 35 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #234 Arizona Wildcats over Arizona State Sun Devils (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 24 FS1) PAC 12 GAME OF THE YEAR The home team has won the last 5 meetings in the Territorial Cup. Arizona needs to win this game to become bowl eligible and they have played much better down the stretch winning 2 of their last 3 games (both wins have come against teams that beat ASU). Arizona State should not be favored as they are just 1-4 straight-up on the road in 2018. There will be a lot of points in this game, but I like the way QB Khalil Tate has been playing over his last three games (12 touchdown and 3 interceptions). Arizona is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. The underdog is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 Territorial Cup meetings.
|11-24-18||Michigan v. Ohio State +4.5||39-62||Win||100||89 h 8 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #162 Ohio State Buckeyes over Michigan Wolverines (12p.m., Saturday, November 24 FOX) Just have a feeling Ohio State is due for a complete 60-minute game. If they cannot get up for this game, then this team is just not very good. Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000 and Ohio State has won 13 of the last 14 meetings. Michigan still has a monkey on their back and Harbaugh has yet to win the Big 10 or beat his hated rival. This will be the best offense Michigan has seen this year and likely even better than Notre Dame. Michigan is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Coach Meyer has never been a home underdog at Ohio State and I feel they will not only cover the spread, but win this game straight-up.
|11-23-18||Washington +3 v. Washington State||28-15||Win||100||74 h 39 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #143 Washington Huskies over Washington State Cougars (8:30p.m., Friday, November 23 FOX) The Apple Cup takes place in Pullman, WA on Friday night. The Huskies have owned this series winning 8 of the last 9 meetings by an average of 22 points per game. Washington State still has an outside chance to reach the College Football Playoff, but I just feel Washington is the better all-around team. Washington is 8-3 yet nobody is talking about them. A win by Washington will put them in the PAC 12 Championship Game with he potential to reach the Rose Bowl. Washington is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games played in Pullman.
|11-23-18||Nebraska +10 v. Iowa||28-31||Win||100||65 h 11 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #123 Nebraska Cornhuskers over Iowa Hawkeyes (12p.m., Friday, November 23 FOX) Just like the way Nebraska has been playing over the last month. We have hit two top plays with them and feel they can keep this game closer than the posted number. This will be the final game for Nebraska and you can bet Coach Frost wants to set the tone for 2019 in this game. Nebraska got embarrassed by Iowa last and pride will be on the line in this game. The future looks much brighter for Nebraska and Iowa appears destined to be an 8-4, 7-5 type of team. The road team has covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
|11-17-18||Cincinnati +7.5 v. Central Florida||13-38||Loss||-114||103 h 34 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #353 Cincinnati Bearcats over UCF Golden Knights (8p.m., Saturday, November 17 ABC) Both teams have explosive offenses, but they difference in this game will be the play of the Bearcat defense. If they can get a lead in this game and make UCF play from behind, they will win it straight-up. Cincinnati has the fifth ranked defense in FBS and UCF will finally have some resistance on offense. UCF is 2-8 ATS in their last 8 games played during the month of November. UCF will have their moments in this game and there will be some points scored but getting around a touchdown is just too good to pass up with Cincinnati.
|11-17-18||Pittsburgh -5.5 v. Wake Forest||34-13||Win||100||95 h 32 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #321 Pittsburgh Panthers over Wake Forest Demon Deacons (12p.m., Saturday, November 17 ACCN) The Panthers are for real having won three straight games against better competition from what they will see today in Winston – Salem. They just need to win one of their two remaining games to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Wake Forest is coming off a major upset against NC State last Thursday and because of that this line is three points shorter from what it should be. Wake Forest is 0-3 ATS this year as a home underdog. The Demon Deacons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 5 straight games.
|11-17-18||Ohio State v. Maryland +15||52-51||Win||100||95 h 30 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #350 Maryland Terrapins over Ohio State Buckeyes (12p.m., Saturday, November 17 ABC) Ohio State has not looked good in recent weeks and this is a classic look ahead situation with a winner take all game on deck against Michigan. Ohio State won last week against Michigan State, 26-6 but that score is very misleading as Michigan State self-destructed in the second half. Maryland needs win victory in their last two games to become bowl eligible. They will not accomplish that but would be able to keep this game around a 10-point deficit. Ohio State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.
|11-17-18||Michigan State v. Nebraska +2.5||Top||6-9||Win||100||94 h 28 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #416 Nebraska Cornhuskers over Michigan State Spartans (12p.m., Saturday, November 17 FOX) Nebraska is one of the most improved teams in the country and they have a good chance to win their remaining two games on the schedule. They have been playing a home heavy schedule of late and this has allowed them to get healthy. Michigan State has a terrible offense and I just do not believe they will be able to attack and score consistently on this suspect Husker defense. Nebraska has covered the spread in 5 straight games including our top play a few weeks ago when they blew out Minnesota. This is just a classic case of two teams heading in different directions. QB Arian Martinez can play and will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come in this conference. Nebraska is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Michigan State (4-1 in Lincoln).
|11-10-18||LSU v. Arkansas +14||24-17||Win||100||99 h 19 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #200 Arkansas Razorbacks over LSU Tigers (7:30p.m., Saturday, November 10 SECN) Take a flier with Arkansas in this game as we expect lingering effects from LSU’s loss to Alabama last week to show up in this game. Arkansas is terrible, but LSU is not explosive at all on offense and thus I wonder if they can cover this big spread on the road. Look for Arkansas to take care of the football and keep this deficit under double-digits for 60 minutes. The Razorbacks have had good success against the Tigers covering the spread in 8 of the last 11 games.
|11-10-18||Temple v. Houston -4.5||59-49||Loss||-108||99 h 53 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #116 Houston Cougars over Temple Owls (7p.m., Saturday, November 10 CBSSN) Houston has dominated this series as AAC opponents going 3-0 ATS. This is the second straight road game for Temple and they are facing another explosive offense in Houston. The Cougars are coming off a head scratching loss to SMU last week but expect them to rebound in a big way against Temple at home. Houston is just too explosive on offense for Temple to keep pace. Houston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Playing back-to-back road games against two explosive offenses will doom in Temple during the second half of this game.
|11-10-18||Miami-FL +3.5 v. Georgia Tech||21-27||Loss||-110||99 h 51 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #139 Miami Hurricanes over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7p.m., Saturday, November 10 ESPN) Mark Richt may not be a great coach but he sure has had success against Georgia Tech and their option attack. He has beaten Georgia Tech 15 of 17 games and getting points with Miami is too good to pass up on Saturday night. Miami is in desperate need of a victory today in order to salvage their season, as they enter this game having lost 3 straight games. If they can stop the option and force Georgia Tech to pass, they will win this game straight-up. Miami has covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
|11-10-18||South Florida v. Cincinnati -12||Top||23-35||Push||0||99 h 49 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #156 Cincinnati Bearcats over USF Bulls (7p.m., Saturday, November 10 ESPN U) The Bulls are in freefall at the moment having lost two straight games after a 7-0 start to the season. They will not get out of that funk tonight against Cincinnati a team that is a sneaky 8-1 on the season. USF is getting no respect from the linemakers evident by being a big underdog two of the last three weeks. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. USF played cupcakes to open the season and their defense will provide little resistance against the Bearcats. USF is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 AAC games. This is going to be a double-digit blowout for the Bearcats and we will collect big with them in the process.
|11-10-18||Ole Miss v. Texas A&M -11||24-38||Win||100||92 h 53 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #124 Texas A&M Aggies over Ole Miss Rebels (12p.m., Saturday, November 10 CBS) Both teams are coming off loses but expect the Aggies to rebound at home against Ole Miss. Texas A&M has a defense and that is something lacking on the Ole Miss sideline. This is an important game for Jimbo Fisher to keep the emotions high and not let the season get away from them. The Rebels have had trouble scoring points against the top defenses in the SEC. The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in College Station. Ole Miss is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
|11-10-18||Kansas +12 v. Kansas State||17-21||Win||100||92 h 51 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #142 Kansas State Wildcats over Kansas Jayhawks (12p.m., Saturday, November 10 FSN) Both teams are struggling, and Kansas has a lame duck coach that has been told he will not return in 2019. The Wildcats have won 9 straight games against the Jayhawks (7-2 ATS) and Bill Snyder needs a victory in the worst way on Saturday. K-State has had a brutal schedule, but it lightens up to close out the season and they must win all three of their remaining game to become bowl eligible. The favorite in this game is 18-5 ATS in the last 23 meetings. Kansas State has been beating Kansas by 29 points per game in the last nine meetings and expect them to win this game by 14-17 points.
|11-09-18||Fresno State v. Boise State +3||17-24||Win||100||78 h 19 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #114 Boise State Broncos over Fresno State Bulldogs (10:15p.m., Friday, November 9 ESPN2) Cannot remember the last time Boise State was an underdog at home in MWC play (18 years!). That being said it is not warranted, as Boise State is far and away the best offense Fresno State will see this year. Fresno State has an outstanding defense, but you just do not go into Boise in a night game and expect to come out on top. If the Broncos can take care of the football, they will have a great chance to win this game straight-up. Fresno State has been on an outstanding ATS run in a variety of categories but that will all come to an end Friday night. Boise has not played many complete games this season but they will be up for this game.
|11-03-18||Oklahoma -12 v. Texas Tech||51-46||Loss||-121||99 h 25 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #349 Oklahoma Sooners over Texas Tech Red Raiders (8p.m., Saturday, November 3 ABC) The Sooners are starting to turn it on and put up 702 total yards against Kansas State last Saturday. They will not be able to fully shutdown the Red Raiders in this game, but I truly believe they will outscore them and win this game by double digits. Oklahoma has played two great games after losing to Texas and they have scored 53.5 points per game over their last 4. The Sooners have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games played in November.
|11-03-18||Alabama v. LSU +14.5||29-0||Loss||-105||99 h 12 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #420 LSU Tigers over Alabama Crimson Tide (8p.m., Saturday, November 3 CBS) Just too many points for Alabama to be giving on the road against a team full of athletes on defense. It will be important that LSU not beat themselves in this game with turnovers and special teams. Coach Orgeron is 15-4 in SEC games and this is likely the only chance Alabama has to lose a game during the regular season. There is just something special about night games in Baton Rouge and the fans into the game from the start. Alabama is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played during the month of November. LSU is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games.
|11-03-18||UCLA v. Oregon -7.5||21-42||Win||100||99 h 43 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #382 Oregon Ducks over UCLA Bruins (7:30p.m., Saturday, November 3 FOX) The Chip Kelly game takes place Saturday afternoon in Eugene, OR. The Ducks laid an egg last week in Tucson and need to bounce back in a big way against an inferior opponent. UCLA is in full rebuild mode and they will enter this game having lost 10 of their last 11 conference road games by an average of 16 points per game. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between UCLA and Oregon. Many fans are still skeptical about Mario Cristobal and this can be his chance for a statement win against a former coach that has great success with Oregon.
|11-03-18||Missouri v. Florida -6||38-17||Loss||-109||95 h 16 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #338 Florida Gators over Missouri Tigers (4p.m., Saturday, November 3 SECN) Expect Florida to bounce back in a big way after losing to Georgia last Saturday in Jacksonville. The Tigers have trouble when playing conference opponents (0-4) and have trouble moving the football against teams with speed on defense. The Gators have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 SEC games. Florida jumps on them early and wins this game by double digits.
|11-03-18||Georgia Southern -7.5 v. UL-Monroe||Top||25-44||Loss||-104||94 h 14 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #377 Georgia Southern Eagles over ULM Warhawks (3p.m., Saturday, November 3 ESPN 3) The Eagles continue to cover spread (7-1 ATS run) and the oddsmakers cannot get a handle on the talent they have. They will enter this game having won five straight games and have been controlling the time of possession in nearly every game that they play. Georgia Southern has beaten ULM all three times they have faced each other as conference opponents. This selection is simple, ULM has trouble stopping the run and Georgia Southern is an outstanding triple option team. The Warhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. The Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played in the month of November.
|11-03-18||Michigan State -1 v. Maryland||24-3||Win||100||91 h 16 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #347 Michigan State Spartans over Maryland Terrapins (12p.m., Saturday, November 3 ESPN 2) The Spartans have the defense that can contain the Terrapins and become bowl eligible after a victory on Saturday. Maryland is 3-19 ATS in their last 22 games following a victory in their previous game. QB Rocky Lombardi appeared to give the Spartans life on offense last week and look for that to continue this Saturday. This game comes down to the fact that Michigan State is great at stopping the run and if that holds true again they will win this game going away. Maryland is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record.
|10-27-18||Washington State v. Stanford -3||41-38||Loss||-103||102 h 56 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #162 Stanford Cardinal over Washington State Cougars (7p.m., Saturday, October 27 PAC-12N) Washington State is just not the same team on the road as they are when they play in Pullman. This will not be a blowout, but Stanford should be able to control the game if they can get a lead in the first half. Stanford is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 game against teams with a winning record. Washington State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on grass.
|10-27-18||South Florida v. Houston -7.5||36-57||Win||100||98 h 17 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #184 Houston Cougars over USF Bulls (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 27 ABC) Houston has beaten USF three straight times and No. 4 will come by double digits on Saturday. The Bulls are undefeated and ranked yet enter as a sizable underdog in this game. That is a great indicator that we are on the right side with the Cougars. USF has played a very weak schedule thus far and they will struggle to run the football against Houston in this game. USF is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 AAC games. Houston is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 AAC games.
|10-27-18||Wisconsin -6.5 v. Northwestern||17-31||Loss||-109||95 h 46 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #139 Wisconsin Badgers over Northwestern Wildcats (12p.m., Saturday, October 27 FOX) The Badgers are going to win the Big 10 Western Division and the only game I see them losing in the regular season is at Penn State. Northwestern does not have the weapons on either side of the football to threaten Wisconsin’s quarterback or their secondary. All of Wisconsin’s 5 victories have come over today’s posted number. Wisconsin is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. Northwestern is 1-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 home games.
|10-26-18||Wyoming v. Colorado State -2.5||34-21||Loss||-102||81 h 44 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #122 Colorado State Rams over Wyoming Cowboys (10p.m., Friday, October 26 CBSSN) We have gone against Wyoming most of the season and will continue to fade them again on Friday. They have lost 4 straight games and they same thing happens keeps happing. Their offense is terrible and if Colorado State does not beat themselves with turnovers they will win this game by double digits. The Rams have had an up and down season, but they close out the season with 4 winnable games and have an outside chance to reach a bowl game. Wyoming is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. The offense of the Rams will allow them to win this border battle.
|10-20-18||Memphis v. Missouri -9.5||33-65||Win||100||97 h 8 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #398 Missouri Tigers over Memphis Tigers (4p.m., Saturday, October 20 SECN) We will side with the power 5 conference in this battle of Tigers. Memphis put a lot of effort into their game last week against UCF trying to knock them off for the first time since 2016. They feel shot in that game and I do not believe they will be able to get back up for this game in Columbia. QB Lock has picked apart non-power 5 teams and expect that to continue on Saturday. Memphis is 4-3 but they have not beaten anybody this season (UCONN, Mercer, Georgia State, & South Alabama). Missouri is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Memphis is 1-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games against SEC teams.
|10-20-18||Minnesota v. Nebraska -3.5||Top||28-53||Win||100||97 h 40 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #380 Nebraska Cornhuskers over Minnesota Golden Gophers (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 20 BTN) TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE WEEK. It ends tonight! Nebraska will put together a 60-minute game against a similar opponent talent wise and record their first victory of the season and first with Scott Frost as head coach. Minnesota played well last week at Ohio State, but I just do not believe they can put forth that same effort in this game. They did not play as well the last two games before that getting blown out by Maryland and Iowa. This will be their third road game in their last four games and both of their road games have come by double digits. I still like freshman QB Martinez and believe he will have success against this Gopher defense. The favorite in Gopher games has covered the spread 9 of the last 10 games. Nebraska had a 231-32 edge in rushing last week. Today is the day the stats reflect the result and Nebraska will win this game by double digits. We will hit a big play in the process as well.
|10-20-18||Miami-OH v. Army -7.5||30-31||Loss||-110||93 h 8 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #330 Army Black Knights over Miami Redhawks (12p.m., Saturday, October 20 CBSSN) Army has beaten the teams that they are supposed to beat this season and expect that trend to continue Saturday afternoon in West Point, NY. The Black Knights have won 5 straight home games. Miami is 0-3 ATS in their nonconference games this season. The Redhawks have played every week of the season and it is hard to prepare for the triple option on short notice. Army is 4-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 games.
|10-20-18||Auburn -4 v. Ole Miss||31-16||Win||100||93 h 6 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #399 Auburn Tigers over Ole Miss Rebels (12p.m., Saturday, October 20 ESPN) Auburn is been a great disappointment of late but playing Ole Miss is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track. The Tigers dominated this game last year winning 44-23 (led 35-3 at half) and this will be another double-digit victory for a team and coach desperate to get back on track. The Rebels have been giving up 263 yards per game rushing in conference play. Auburn has the better defense in this game and Ole Miss will struggle to move the football and keep up in scoring. Auburn is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in Oxford.
|10-13-18||Wisconsin +9.5 v. Michigan||13-38||Loss||-106||57 h 40 m||Show|
7 Unit Play. #169 Take Wisconsin Badgers over Michigan Wolverines (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 13 ABC) TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE WEEK. Wisconsin just does not get blown out much in there games. Getting this many points against a team still searching for a marquee win is too good to pass up. Michigan has a brutal schedule remaining with games against Michigan State, Penn State, and Ohio State still on deck. Playing the west division allows Wisconsin to avoid upsets when there are not at their best. Wisconsin has yet to play a complete game this season, but I expect them to put forth a big effort Saturday night. The number keeps rising since their secondary is banged up, but I do not believe Michigan will be able to take advantage of this. Wisconsin is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. Michigan is 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Wisconsin is 9-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against Michigan.
|10-13-18||New Mexico v. Colorado State +1||18-20||Win||100||99 h 37 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #150 Colorado State Rams over New Mexico Lobos (4p.m., Saturday, October 13 ATTSN) The Rams have been one of the most disappointing teams in the conference this season but they have played a difficult schedule and should be able to get back on track in MWC play. They have talent and have owned this series winning 8 in a row against the Lobos. New Mexico dominated UNLV last week but the Rebels were without their starting quarterback. New Mexico is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The home team is 7-2 ATS (1 push) in the last 10 matchups between New Mexico and Colorado State.
|10-13-18||Georgia v. LSU +7.5||Top||16-36||Win||100||98 h 10 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #198 LSU Tigers over Georgia Bulldogs (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 13 CBS) SEC GAME OF THE YEAR Georgia has yet to be tested this season but their schedule ramps up from here on out. Playing at LSU is never an easy task and except them to be in for a 60-minute game today in Baton Rouge. LSU has covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games in October. The Tigers have the speed to contain Georgia and I just do not see a blowout in this game. We will gladly grab the points and not worry about who pulls this game out by a field goal.
|10-13-18||Washington v. Oregon +3.5||27-30||Win||100||98 h 9 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #160 Oregon Ducks over Washington Huskies (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 13 ABC) Oregon is legit and has a quarterback that can attack this Washington defense. The Ducks should be undefeated except for a collapse against Stanford in their last home game. Now they are coming off a bye whereas Washington did not look impressive at all against a terrible UCLA team. Oregon has been pounded in the last two meetings, but they are still 12-2 straight-up and against the spread in the last 14 meetings. Washington has been on the road a lot this year and that will catch up to them in this game. Washington is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Oregon is 6-1 ATS (1 push) against Washington in the last 8 meetings in Eugene.
|10-13-18||Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame -20.5||14-19||Loss||-110||97 h 17 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #154 Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Pittsburgh Panthers (2:30p.m., Saturday, October 13 NBC) I have said the last two weeks that you must continue to ride Notre Dame until they fail to cover a spread. We have used them the last two weeks and won easily and expect more of the same on Saturday against an inferior team. Pittsburgh is coming off an overtime win against Syracuse but the talent level they face is much stronger in this game. Since QB Brook has been named the starting quarterback the Irish appear to be unstoppable (3-0 ATS). Pittsburgh is 6-19 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 nonconference games. Notre Dame is 40-18 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 60 games played during October.
|10-13-18||Florida -7 v. Vanderbilt||37-27||Win||100||95 h 39 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #191 Florida Gators over Vanderbilt Commodores (12p.m., Saturday, October 13 ESPN) The Gators have been on a roll since losing to Kentucky winning 4 straight games including beating LSU and Mississippi State in the process. Vanderbilt has been pounded in their last 2 SEC games and this will be a double digit loss as well. Florida has not lost at Vanderbilt since 1988 (13 straight wins) and have covered the spread in 70% of their last 10 games in Nashville. The Commodores have trouble defending the pass and expect Coach Mullen to pick them apart. Vanderbilt is 1-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 SEC games.
|10-07-18||Wyoming v. Hawaii -3||Top||13-17||Win||100||106 h 56 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #414 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors over Wyoming Cowboys (11:59p.m., Saturday, October 6) Wyoming has a major problem on offense and if Hawaii does not beat themselves with turnovers, they will win this game by double digits. Hawaii took Wyoming into overtime last year with QB Allen playing for the Pokes. He will not be on the island this year and the Cowboys are averaging just 18 points and 300 total yards. Hawaii is coming off a 5OT win on the road last Saturday and they now are on pace to make a bowl game this season. When Wyoming loses, it tends to be big as their three losses this season have come by 22, 27, & 20 points. Wyoming put a lot into their game last week against Boise State in Laramie and they performed poorly. The oddsmakers have not caught onto how bad Wyoming is this season, as they have not covered a spread in their last 4 lined games.
|10-06-18||Notre Dame -5 v. Virginia Tech||45-23||Win||100||102 h 18 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #349 Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Virginia Tech Hokies (8p.m., Saturday, October 6 ABC) Until Notre Dame loses a game we will continue to ride them on these short numbers. Virginia Tech is without their starting quarterback and already lost to Old Dominion this season. They played better last week against Duke but the Blue Devils are not a powerhouse whatsoever. Virginia Tech has a weak defense this year and Notre Dame will get their offense rolling at some point in this game and I just do not believe the Hokies will be able to keep pace. Notre Dame is 39-18 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 59 games played in October.
|10-06-18||San Diego State v. Boise State -14.5||19-13||Loss||-106||97 h 28 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #354 Boise State Broncos over San Diego State Aztecs (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 6 ESPN U) Boise State is far and away the best team in the MWC and we will continue to ride them. We hit out top play with them last week against Wyoming and now they play a very similar team in San Diego State. The Aztecs need to keep this game low scoring and that will be impossible to do facing QB Rypien. Boise State had a 506-214 yardage advantage last week against Wyoming and they should have won by more than 20 points. San Diego State was favored last year against Boise State and lost 31-14. The same holds true as last week, if Boise State does not beat themselves they will win this game by 20 points. San Diego State is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Boise State has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games.
|10-06-18||Maryland v. Michigan -17.5||21-42||Win||100||95 h 10 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #338 Michigan Wolverines over Maryland Terrapins (12p.m., Saturday, October 6 ABC) Maryland is improved but Michigan owes this series of late under Coach Harbaugh. Michigan is 3-0 ATS in their last three games against Maryland with a combined score of those games being 122-13. Michigan now has balance on offense with a quarterback that can move the football through the air. Maryland will not be able to run the football for 315 yards like they did against Minnesota. Michigan came out flat against Northwestern last week but turned it on in the second half and expect them to carry that into this early start on Saturday. Maryland is 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a victory in their previous game. Michigan is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played at Michigan Stadium.
|10-05-18||Utah State v. BYU -2.5||45-20||Loss||-107||79 h 60 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #312 BYU Cougars over Utah State Aggies (9p.m., Friday, October 5 ESPN 2) BYU has a much better team this year than last year and should be able to beat Utah State at home on Friday night. BYU turned over the football 7 times in that game last year and still only lost by 16 points (led by 14 points in the second quarter). BYU has played a brutal schedule thus far and they always have a home field advantage in Provo. This is a game BYU needs in order to save their season and expect them to get it. Utah State is 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. BYU has covered the spread 4 straight games against MWC teams. 71% of the early money is coming in on BYU and we expect them to bounce back as well.
|09-29-18||Boise State -17 v. Wyoming||Top||34-14||Win||100||97 h 15 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #203 Boise State Broncos over Wyoming Cowboys (7p.m., Saturday, September 30 CBSSN) The Cowboys and their fans will be up for this game but the fact remains they just do not have the offensive firepower to keep pace in this game. Wyoming is 2-2 this season but their wins have come against a terrible New Mexico State team and an FCS team in Wofford by just three points. If Boise State does not turn over the football they will win this game by 21+ points. Wyoming is 117th in the country in points per game and they have gotten pounded by Washington State and Missouri. I believe Boise State is better than both of those teams. Boise State has won 11 of the last 12 meetings. The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
|09-29-18||Florida v. Mississippi State -7.5||13-6||Loss||-105||96 h 15 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #194 Mississippi State Bulldogs over Florida Gators (6p.m., Saturday, September 29 ESPN) One of the more surprising results last week was Mississippi State getting destroyed by Kentucky. Florida one by default last week against Tennessee who turned the football over six times. The only had 186 yards passing in that game and just 14 first downs. But this is a game the Bulldogs want in the worst way to show Coach Mullen made the wrong decision leaving Starkville for Gainesville. Mississippi State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Florida is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Florida has not covered the spread against Mississippi State in the last 4 match-ups.
|09-29-18||Pittsburgh v. Central Florida -13.5||14-45||Win||100||94 h 47 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #140 UCF Golden Knights over Pittsburgh Panthers (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 29 ESPN U) UCF just wins and expect them to win this game at home by double digits. The Panthers have been terrible in the second halves this year and expect that to continue in this game. The Golden Knights can still score points and the Panthers will not be able to keep pace in this game. UCF is fifth in total offense at over 587 yards per game. Pittsburgh is 7-19 ATS in their last 27 nonconference games. UCF is 8-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 games following an ATS win in their previous game.
|09-29-18||Bowling Green v. Georgia Tech -28.5||17-63||Win||100||90 h 17 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #124 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets over Bowling Green Falcons (12p.m., Saturday, September 29 ACCN) The Falcons really struggle to stop the run and that is pretty much all Georgia Tech does. Bowling Green is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and sooner or later Georgia Tech will cover a spread in 2018. Bowling Green is allowing 334 yards per game rushing and 6.44 yards per rushing attempt. The Falcons are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games. The line has already moved 4+ points towards the Yellow Jackets and it is still not enough. It will be a 30-point home victory in Atlanta, GA.
|09-28-18||Memphis v. Tulane +14||24-40||Win||100||74 h 19 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #106 Tulane Green Wave over Memphis Tigers (8p.m., Friday, September 28 ESPN 2) The Green Wave is better than what their record is, and I just do not see a blowout in this game. Memphis has allowed points and they like to win games by outscoring their opponent and that becomes a tougher task once conference play opens up. Tulane runs the spread option and a running team has already beaten Memphis this season (Navy). Tulane is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Memphis is 2-10 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
|09-22-18||Stanford v. Oregon +3||Top||38-31||Loss||-115||101 h 37 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #356 Oregon Ducks over Stanford Cardinal (8p.m., Saturday, September 22 ABC) This is a game that can put Oregon on the national radar once again. A win will likely prevent Stanford for reaching the PAC-12 Championship Game and set up a battle between Washington and Oregon on October 13. The Ducks result last week was misleading as they were clearly looking ahead to this game and have revenge on their minds after getting pounded last year in Palo Alto. Getting rid of Willie Taggert can only be beneficial evident by this lack of success at Florida State. Stanford is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played in September. Oregon has the weapons to attack this Stanford defense and expect them to win straight-up. The Line has swing too much and the value now clearly lies with Oregon.
|09-22-18||Mississippi State -9.5 v. Kentucky||7-28||Loss||-115||100 h 42 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #359 Mississippi State Bulldogs over Kentucky Wildcats (7p.m., Saturday, September 22 ESPN2) The Bulldogs are for real in 2018 and they may be the second-best team in the SEC West. The SEC East appears to be Georgia and a bunch of pretenders and thus we will gladly lay the points on the road with the better overall team. QB Fitzgerald had 6 touchdowns last week and he has lighten up the scoreboard since coming off an opening game suspension. The Bulldogs are 8-1 straight-up (6-2 ATS) in their last 9 meetings with the Wildcats. Kentucky has not done well in Lexington going 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games at Commonwealth Stadium. Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.
|09-22-18||TCU v. Texas +3.5||16-31||Win||100||97 h 5 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #380 Texas Longhorns over TCU Horned Frogs (4:30p.m., Saturday, September 22 FOX) TCU got shell shocked in the third quarter last week in a defacto home game against Ohio State. Texas is coming off an impressive win against USC and it is imperative that they follow that up with a victory this week to keep the momentum going. TCU has not played in Fort Worth since September 1st and that will catch up with them in this game. Texas has played a home heavy schedule as this is their fourth game of the season and their third game Texas Memorial Stadium. Coach Herman cannot afford to look past any opponent as he did not have a good season last year and already has a lost to Maryland this season. TCU is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win in their previous game.
|09-22-18||Clemson -16.5 v. Georgia Tech||49-21||Win||100||96 h 10 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #337 Clemson Tigers over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 22 ABC) The Tigers have the defensive line that will be able to stop the rushing attack of the Yellow Jackets. Clemson has won 5 of the last 6 meetings (4-2 ATS) by an average margin of victory of 18 points per game. Clemson is allowing just 89 yards rushing each game (about 2.1 yards per carry). Georgia Tech has scored just 17 combined points in their last 2 games against Clemson. Georgia Tech is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Yellow Jackets are in a serious downturn and this may be the year they make a coaching change, as Paul Johnson does not inspire an exciting brand of football.
|09-22-18||Texas A&M v. Alabama -26.5||23-45||Loss||-110||96 h 3 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #406 Alabama Crimson Tide over Texas A & M Aggies (3:30 p.m., Saturday, September 22 CBS) I guess you have to keep riding Alabama until they do not cover a spread. The Tide has looked dominating on all levels of play and we will lay the wood in this game against a rebuilding Texas A&M squad. The Aggies had their Super Bowl two weeks ago against Clemson, but that game was a home and I just do not believe they can put forth that big of an effort on the road. Alabama has won 20 straight home games by an average of 32 points per game. A&M is 4-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 14 SEC games. Alabama has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 home games.
|09-22-18||Louisville v. Virginia -4.5||3-27||Win||100||93 h 9 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #348 Virginia Cavaliers over Louisville Cardinals (12:30p.m., Saturday, September 22 ACCN) The Cardinals appear to be in a downward trend and this year they have no Lamar Jackson to bail them out. They were outgained last week against Western Kentucky and now face a better defense in Virginia this Saturday. Louisville is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games. Virginia has a chance to make a bowl game this year but must win this game in order to accomplish that. Virginia is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Louisville is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games played during September.
|09-21-18||Washington State v. USC -3.5||36-39||Loss||-105||79 h 16 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #310 USC Trojans over Washington State Cougars (10:30p.m., Friday, September 21 ESPN) USC appears to be in freefall at the moment but playing at home against Washington State should get them back on track. The Cougars beat the Trojans last year for the first time since 2002 and I do not see them winning two straight against a much more talented team. USC has won 12 straight conference games at the Coliseum. Washington State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. USC is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss in their previous game.
|09-15-18||Arizona State v. San Diego State +5||21-28||Win||100||100 h 57 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #210 San Diego State Aztecs over Arizona State Sun Devils (10:30p.m., Saturday, September 15 CBSSN) Everyone is drinking the Herm Edwards Kool-Aid after beating Michigan State last week and I feel this number is inflated. SDSU won in Tempe last year by double digits and I feel they have a good chance to win this game straight-up. Arizona State has Washington on deck and playing at his half empty stadium is always a touch task to get the adrenalin flowing. SDSU is not as strong as they have been in the past couple of years but they still play sound football and like to control the game with a strong running attack and solid defense and that should be able to chip away at the clock and keep them in this game for 60 minutes. ASU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against MWC teams. SDSU is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.
|09-15-18||Washington v. Utah +7||21-7||Loss||-115||100 h 36 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #206 Utah Utes over Washington Huskies (10p.m., Saturday, September 15 ESPN) I believe Utah is the team to beat in the PAC-12 South and getting points with them at home is a prime opportunity for a big play. Washington will be traveling for the second time in three weeks to open the season and this will be another hostile environment. Utah is 6-3 ATS as a home underdog and had Washington beat last year in Seattle before a late rally by the Huskies allowed them to emerge victorious. Washington is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Utah is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing during the month of September.
|09-15-18||Ohio State v. TCU +13.5||40-28||Win||100||98 h 39 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #204 TCU Horned Frogs over Ohio State Buckeyes (8p.m., Saturday, September 15 ABC) This is the game that Ohio State will miss having Urban Meyer on the sidelines. This is a defacto home game for TCU since this game is be playing in Arlington and TCU is located in Fort Worth. TCU got off to a slow start against SMU last week but turned it on in the second half and they clearly had an eye on this game. The Frogs will have a coaching advantage in this game and I just do not see them losing by double digits. Ohio State has yet to be tested and I feel this game will go down to the wire. We will grab the points in this contest.
|09-15-18||North Texas v. Arkansas -7||44-17||Loss||-106||93 h 23 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #174 Arkansas Razorbacks over North Texas Mean Green (4p.m., Saturday, September 15 SECN) The Razorbacks should be able to get back on track at home against North Texas on Saturday. This will be the first true road game for the Mean Green and they are just 8-16 ATS in their last 24 games as a road underdog. Arkansas had a big lead last week before Colorado State rallied to finally one a game this season. This will be a setup for North Texas and they are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Arkansas losing last week makes them a play this week, as Coach Chad Morris will have his team’s attention all week and will play a full 4 quarters on Saturday.
|09-15-18||LSU +9.5 v. Auburn||22-21||Win||100||93 h 57 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #153 LSU Tigers over Auburn Tigers (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 15 CBS) Not too many teams put more talent on the field than does LSU and Auburn is not one of those teams. LSU won last year and I see them game going down to the wire yet again. LSU has the defense to contain the Auburn offense and if LSU can protect the football they should be in position to win this game in the fourth quarter. LSU is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. These have been low scoring games in the last 4 meetings in Auburn and getting close to double digits is too good to pass up.
|09-15-18||Tulane -3.5 v. UAB||Top||24-31||Loss||-110||49 h 2 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #163 Tulane Green Wave over UAB Blazers (1p.m., Saturday, September 15 Facebook) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR UAB decided to bring back football for some reason after a two-year absence, but I just do not believe they can compete with teams from the American Athletic Conference. UAB is -77.5 ATS in their last 4 lined games and have lost 4 straight games against Tulane. The Green Wave are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 nonconference games. Tulane is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against UAB. Tulane just missed out on being bowl eligible last year and with Ohio State on deck this is a must win game for them in their hopes of reaching 6 wins. Tulane returns a ton of experience on offense led by QB Bank and WR Encalade. They should be able to pick apart the Blazers on defense and I just do not believe UAB will be able to keep pace. Tulane pulls away in the second half to win this game by double digits.
|09-08-18||Wyoming v. Missouri -18||Top||13-40||Win||100||77 h 51 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #368 Missouri Tigers over Wyoming Cowboys (7p.m., Saturday September 8 ESPN U) The Tigers should have saw the blueprint of how to beat Wyoming if they scouted the game last week. Do not turn the ball over and make the Cowboys drive the 75 yards plus to score. Wyoming only had success last week against Washington State when the Cougars gave them short fields. The Cowboys were terrible on offense and will not be able to keep up in scoring in this game. Missouri has a tempo offense that usually scores points often and quickly especially against inferior competition. Wyoming is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games played in September. Missouri is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
|09-08-18||UMass v. Georgia Southern -2.5||13-34||Win||100||76 h 50 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #364 Georgia Southern Eagles over Massachusetts Minuteman (6p.m., Saturday September 8 ESPN+) The Minuteman got pounded last week against their in-state rivals and I do not see things getting any better on Saturday. The Eagles are a run heavy team and are a tough team to prep for with only a week’s time. UMASS pounded Georgia Southern last year and you can bet the Eagles have remembered that embarrassing performance. Throw in the fact this is the second straight road game for the Minutemen and I see the Eagles pulling away late. Georgia Southern is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
|09-08-18||Colorado +4.5 v. Nebraska||33-28||Win||100||73 h 23 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #353 Colorado Buffaloes over Nebraska Cornhuskers (3:30p.m., Saturday September 8 ABC) There is great excitement for the Scott Frost era in Lincoln, but like Chip Kelly found out last week success does not happen overnight. Colorado put forth a dominating performance last week against Colorado State and Nebraska has yet to play a game this season. Fan enthusiasm can only take Nebraska so far this season and I truly believe that the wrong team is favored in this game. Nebraska is 1-9 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 12 home games. Colorado is 11-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Nebraska.
|09-08-18||New Mexico v. Wisconsin -34.5||14-45||Loss||-106||70 h 47 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #316 Wisconsin Badgers over New Mexico Lobos (12p.m., Saturday September 8 BTN) New Mexico is a poor man’s version of Wisconsin with a run heavy offense without a strong passing game. Wisconsin should be able to overpower New Mexico on both sides of the football. The Lobos dominated last week against a team nobody has heard of in Incarnate Word. Coach Chryst always seems to be aware of the point spread evident by the fact he had his quarterback throw deep late in the fourth quarter last Friday. New Mexico is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 nonconference games. Wisconsin is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after an ATS loss in their previous game. With New Mexico State on deck, the Lobos just want to get their payout from this game, stay healthy, and score a few points. They will lose by 40 points.
|09-02-18||Miami-FL -3 v. LSU||17-33||Loss||-109||18 h 19 m||Show|
5-Unit Play. Take #217 Miami FL -3 over LSU (Sunday, September 2nd at 7:30 PM ET)
Take Miami FL ATS as my 7-Unit CFB Smash for Sunday night. This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and I have the Hurricanes winning this game by 10+ points Sunday night. The Hurricanes return 14 starts 7 on offense and 7 on defense including their quarterback while LSU returns just 10 starts with 5 on each side of the ball and not their starting quarterback from last season. This Canes team has never looked better and I expect them to get off to a quick start on both sides of the ball that will silence the crowd in Dallas. The Hurricanes were one of only 22 teams in all of college football to allow less than 20 ppg last year during the regular season and you can expect this defense to be hungry for the turnover chain again this season. The Canes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played during the month of September and the Tigers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against an ACC opponent. Play Miami FL ATS.
|09-01-18||Marshall -1 v. Miami-OH||35-28||Win||100||99 h 2 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #179 Marshall Thundering Herd over Miami (OH) Redhawks (3:30p.m., Saturday September 1 ESPN+) This was a very competitive game in 2017 with Marshall pulling out a 31-26 victory. That is about how I see this game going as well, with the traditional of success Marshall has being the difference. The Herd has dominated this series winning 9 of the 10 meetings (7-3 ATS). Both teams return a ton of experience but Marshall was 4-0 ATS in 2017 in their last 4 road games and Miami is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games.
|09-01-18||Washington State v. Wyoming +1.5||Top||41-19||Loss||-106||97 h 60 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #206 Wyoming Cowboys over Washington State Cougars (3:30p.m., Saturday September 1 CBSSN) TOP PLAY OF THE WEEKEND. Wyoming lost QB Josh Allen to the Buffalo Bills but they return a ton of starters all around that position. Washington State does not start off well under Coach Mike Leach, losing 5 of their 6 openers including two against FCS teams. Wyoming has a strong defense and playing in Laramie is always a tough challenge. Wyoming is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Washington State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Getting points makes this our strongest play, as we fully expect the Cowboys to win this game straight-up.
|09-01-18||Houston -25 v. Rice||45-27||Loss||-108||94 h 43 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #153 Houston Cougars over Rice Owls (12p.m., Saturday September 1 CBSSN) The Owls are in a complete rebuild with a new coach after going 1-11 last season. They won last week against Prairie View A&M and that may be their only win they get this season. Houston has won the last 4 meetings with Rice by an average of 25 points per game. Rice was 0-4 ATS in nonconference games in 2017 and they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when they are a double-digit underdog. Houston is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games played in September. Rice is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
|08-31-18||Colorado State v. Colorado -7.5||13-45||Win||100||79 h 11 m||Show|
3 Unit Play. Take #148 Colorado Buffaloes over Colorado State Rams (9:30p.m., Friday August 31 CBSSN) Colorado State got embarrassed last week against Hawaii. Their offense put up a ton of yards but most of it came in garbage time as they were down big in the second half and had to throw the football on every down. Colorado has owned this series of late going 8-2 and winning by an average of 16 points per game. The Buffaloes have tape on the Rams and that should benefit them a great deal in this game. Expect them to jump on the Rams early and cruise to a double-digit victory.
|08-31-18||San Diego State v. Stanford -14||10-31||Win||100||79 h 39 m||Show|
3 Unit Play. Take #150 Stanford Cardinal over San Diego State Aztecs (9p.m., Friday August 31 FS1) The Aztecs were not the same team as the 2017 season progressed. They started 6-0 but then got blown out in back to back home games and also suffered an embarrassing bowl loss to Army. Stanford has revenge in their corner after losing at San Diego in 2017 to this Aztec team. It will be hard for the Aztecs to overpower the Cardinal and I just do not believe SDSU can make enough plays in the passing game to have this be a competitive game. Stanford has won 10 straight home openers by an average of 25 points per game. SDSU is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games against PAC-12 teams. Stanford is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games played on Friday.
|08-30-18||Northwestern +103 v. Purdue||31-27||Win||103||7 h 14 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. Take #135 Northwestern Wildcats over Purdue Boilermakers (8p.m., Thursday August 30 ESPN) The line is moving toward Northwestern and who are we to argue with that. Purdue must replace a ton of players on defense and I believe they will take a step back this year. Northwestern is used to playing close game and they will find a way to pull this out. Northwestern is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. 61% of the money is coming in on the underdog and they will win this game straight-up.
|08-30-18||Central Florida v. Connecticut +23.5||56-17||Loss||-110||53 h 37 m||Show|
3 Unit Play. Take #134 Connecticut Huskies over UCF Golden Knights (7p.m., Thursday August 30 ESPN U) We saw last week with Hawaii and Colorado State and feel the same theme holds true again. This is just too many points to be giving in an opening game, especially an opening conference game. UCF is still loaded but I do not believe Josh Heupel is on par as a coach with Scott Frost. UCONN is 12-3 straight-up in home openers. The Golden Knights will pull away late and win this game by double digits, but it will fall short of this huge number.
|08-25-18||Hawaii +14.5 v. Colorado State||43-34||Win||100||101 h 52 m||Show|
2 Unit Play. Take #293 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors over Colorado State Rams (7:30p.m., Saturday August 25 CBSSN) The Rams lost a ton of talent from last year and have been without their head coach Mike Bobo. He is dealing with an illness and I just do not see a blowout against a conference opponent. Hawaii took a step back last year under Nick Rolovich but they will be competitive in this game losing to the Rams by just single digits. Colorado State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Hawaii is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played during August.
|01-08-18||Alabama -4.5 v. Georgia||26-23||Loss||-102||151 h 54 m||Show|
3 Unit Play. Take #151 Take Alabama Crimson Tide over Georgia Bulldogs (8:45p.m., Monday January 8 ESPN) Just cannot put my hard-earned money going against Nick Saban and Alabama. We rode them against Clemson and that game was never really in doubt. Alabama is the gold standard in college football and to beat them you need a quarterback that can stretch the field vertically. Georgia does not have that, and I believe they are just a poor man’s version of what Alabama is. Nick Saban does not lose games against former assistants and I just do not believe Georgia will be able to run the football between the tackles. Alabama is not strong on offense either, but they play a style that does not put much pressure on QB Hurst and as along as they take care of the football they will win this game by double-digits. Alabama is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
|01-01-18||Alabama -2.5 v. Clemson||24-6||Win||100||151 h 21 m||Show|
5 Unit Play. #273 Take Alabama Crimson Tide over Clemson Tigers (Sugar Bowl, Monday, 1/1 8:45 pm ESPN) MAGNIFICENT 7 GAME Despite being the No. 1 overall seed, the Tigers got a bad draw having to face Alabama in New Orleans. Alabama has the most talent of any roster in college football and this long layoff will allow them to get healthy especially on the defensive side of the football. Clemson will have trouble running the football against Alabama, as they allow under 100 yards per game rushing. Throw in the fact that Alabama has revenge on their minds from Clemson defeating them last year and I just do not believe Kelly Bryant can move the football like Deshaun Watson did against Alabama. The Crimson Tide is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
|01-01-18||Central Florida +10 v. Auburn||34-27||Win||100||143 h 2 m||Show|
3 Unit Play. #267 Take UCF Golden Knights over Auburn Tigers (Peach Bowl, Monday, 1/1 12:30 pm ESPN) UCF has a remarkable season and I believe they will be able to score points to keep this game somewhat competitive. One must question the Tigers motivation for this game after not making the playoff by suffering their third loss of the season in the SEC Championship Game. UCF will need to sell out to stop the run against Auburn and make the Tigers beat them through the air. Auburn is 0-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 nonconference games.
|12-30-17||Washington v. Penn State -1.5||Top||28-35||Win||100||98 h 14 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #262 Take Penn State Nittany Lions over Washington Huskies (Fiesta Bowl, Saturday, 12/30 4 pm ESPN) COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR, MAGNIFICENT 7 GAME I felt all season long that Penn State was the best team in the Big 10. They blew the game against Ohio State and they got tripped up the following week at Michigan State in a game delayed by weather. Despite Washington returning a ton of players from last year’s team that made the playoff, they did not look very impressive this season. They lost two games in which there were favored and played a very weak nonconference schedule. Penn State played a much more difficult schedule and they have a major edge on offense especially in the trenches. Penn State won their last three games to close out the regular season by an average of 35 points per game and I believe they will win this game by double digits as well. Penn State is 9-2 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games.
|12-30-17||Iowa State v. Memphis -3.5||21-20||Loss||-110||95 h 54 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. #260 Take Memphis Tigers over Iowa State Cyclones (Liberty Bowl, Saturday, 12/30 12:30 pm ABC) MAGNIFICENT 7 GAME Memphis has the advantage of playing this game in this home stadium and they should be able to take care of business against Iowa State. The Cyclones got a lot of praise midway through the season, but they finished just 7-5 losing three of their final four games. Memphis has a major edge on offense and they scored 15 touchdowns on plays for 40 or more yards. The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss in their previous game. Memphis has a very experienced team that they want to make a statement against a team from the Power 5.
|12-29-17||USC +8.5 v. Ohio State||7-24||Loss||-115||79 h 6 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. #255 Take Southern Cal Trojans over Ohio State Buckeyes (Cotton Bowl, Friday, 12/29 8:30 pm ESPN) MAGNIFICENT 7 GAME What a match-up the Cotton Bowl got this year as the traditional Rose Bowl match-up moves west. Just do not know how motivated Ohio State will be for this game since they were not selected for the four-team playoff. USC has beaten Ohio State 7 straight times and Ohio State just is not an offensive machine like they have been in previous years under Urban Meyer. QB Sam Donald is 20-2 as a starting quarterback and USC has the edge at the quarterback position with a future NFL player behind center for them. Ohio State has ample opportunities to blow out Wisconsin yet could not do that. Ohio State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
|12-29-17||Kentucky +8 v. Northwestern||23-24||Win||100||75 h 7 m||Show|
5 Unit Play. #251 Take Kentucky Wildcats over Northwestern Wildcats (Music City Bowl, Friday, 12/29 4:30 pm ESPN) MAGNIFICENT 7 GAME Just do not see a blowout in this battle of Wildcats. Northwestern is 9-3 but they benefitted from play in the Big 10 West and won three overtime games in a row. Kentucky has a strong defense and Northwestern does not have an explosive offense. I believe the long layoff will help Kentucky get back on track and may hurt the momentum Northwestern had to finish out the season. If Kentucky can stabilize this game early expect it to go down to the wire and thus we will collect with the underdog regardless who comes out on top.
|12-28-17||Michigan State +1 v. Washington State||42-17||Win||100||56 h 33 m||Show|
5 Unit Play. #277 Take Michigan State Spartans over Washington State Cougars (Holiday Bowl, Thursday, 12/28 9 pm FS1) MAGNIFICENT 7 GAME The Spartans had a great bounce back season this year going 9-3 and 7-2 in Big 10 play. Michigan State has a strong defense to match-up well with Washington State’s passing attack as they are 14th in passing efficiency. Washington State put a lot into the Apple Cup and they got killed in that game to close out the regular season, 41-14. Washington State has not performed well in their last three bowl games, losing two of them and scoring just 32 combine points in their last two years. Michigan State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. Washington State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against teams from the Big 10.
|12-27-17||Purdue v. Arizona -3||38-35||Loss||-120||198 h 34 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. #276 Take Arizona Wildcats over Purdue Boilermakers (Foster Farms Bowl, Wednesday, 12/27 8:30 pm FOX) Both teams are happy to be bowling are Arizona had a remarkable turnaround very few people saw coming. Arizona has a dynamic offense behind Khalil Tate, who can beat you will his arm and his legs. Purdue does not have many offenses like Arizona has in the Big 10 West and generally better offenses are the way to go in bowl games since there is a long layoff. Purdue is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
|12-27-17||Southern Miss +16.5 v. Florida State||13-42||Loss||-110||191 h 36 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. #235 Take Southern Miss Golden Eagles over Florida State Seminoles (Independence Bowl, Wednesday, 12/27 1:30 pm ESPN) Magnificent 7 Game. Florida State has not been able to reach the playoffs the last couple of years, but they last two years they still won games at a high rate. 2017 was a much different story, as they fell of a cliff and had to win their last game just to become bowl eligible. Just do not believe that they will be up for this game and they are playing a team that wants to win the Independence Bowl. Southern Miss won 8 games this season and they are solid on both sides of the football. FSU is going through a coaching change and their offense was terrible most of the season. Hard to believe FSU fans are excited about this game and Golden Eagle fans can drive to this game. Florida State is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. Southern Miss is 4-1 in their last 5 nonconference games.
|12-26-17||Kansas State v. UCLA +2.5||35-17||Loss||-105||174 h 7 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. #234 Take UCLA Bruins over Kansas State Wildcats (Cactus Bowl, Tuesday, 12/26 9 pm ESPN) You can pretty much pencil in Kansas State for seven wins every year that Bill Snyder coaches this team. They have not done well in the past few bowl games going 2-5 straight-up (2-5 ATS). I believe UCLA got a boast by hiring Chip Kelly as their new head coach. They also have Josh Rosen and the Wildcats had trouble slowing down many quarterbacks in the Big 12. Kansas State will play smart and not beat themselves I just do not believe they are explosive on either side of the football. If UCLA does not turnover the football they will win this game straight-up. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against PAC 12 teams.
|12-23-17||Texas Tech v. South Florida -2.5||34-38||Win||100||93 h 8 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. #222 Take USF Bulls over Texas Tech Red Raiders (Birmingham Bowl, Saturday, 12/23 12 pm ESPN) Been a fan of this USF team all season long and they had an impressive 9-2 record in the very offensive heavy American Athletic Conference. The Bulls should have little trouble moving the football up and down the field against Texas Tech, one of the worst defenses in the country. Texas Tech is very inexperienced, and they were fortunate to win six games to become bowl eligible. The last time Texas Tech made a bowl game they got pounded and expect a similar result today against a Group of 5 team ready to pound a team from a major conference.
|12-16-17||Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State -3.5||35-30||Loss||-105||55 h 5 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. #210 Take Arkansas State Red Wolves over Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (Camellia Bowl, Saturday, 12/16 8 pm ESPN) These teams are very familiar with one another and Arkansas State has won the last three meetings, all of them by blowouts (51-24, 45-19, 45-0). QB Justice Hanson put up monster numbers this season throwing for over 3,600 yards and 8.4 yards per attempt. There will be a lot of points in this game, but I just believe the Red Wolves will pull away late and win this game by double digits. MTSU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. Arkansas State is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
|12-16-17||Oregon v. Boise State +8.5||28-38||Win||100||98 h 42 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. #206 Take Boise State Broncos over Oregon Ducks (Las Vegas Bowl, Saturday, 12/16 3:30 pm ABC) This is just too many points to be giving against Boise State. The Broncos thrive as an underdog and have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 bowl games against Power 5 teams. Boise State is also 2-0 ATS this season as an underdog. Oregon has their quarterback back but lost their head coach who now is in charge at Florida State. Oregon just does not appear to be getting back to national dominance any time soon. Oregon is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Boise State is 4-1 ATS following a victory in their previous game.
|12-02-17||Ohio State v. Wisconsin +7||Top||27-21||Win||100||101 h 1 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #328 Take Wisconsin Badgers over Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday 8 pm FOX) People keep doubting the Badgers but all the do is win games and I just do not see this Ohio State team being able to run up and down the field on them. This is the best defense Wisconsin has ever had and QB J.T. Barrett is not the type of quarterback that can beat teams throwing the ball consistently down the field. Wisconsin looked much more impressive in games against Iowa and Michigan than did Ohio State (common opponents). This just has a different feeling that other Wisconsin appearances in the Big 10 Title Game. This Badger team is extremely confident on both sides of the football and this not as strong of Buckeye team as we have seen in the past. Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 4 straight games. Expect a game that is very competitive that goes down to the wire, but Wisconsin pulls it out by a field goal to advance to the CFP.