|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-16-18||Patriots -2 v. Steelers||Top||10-17||Loss||-110||77 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #327 New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 16 CBS) Both teams need to turn the page quickly after bad losses last Sunday. The Patriots seldom lose two games in a row and they are playing a team in disarray at the moment. Pittsburgh has not beaten New England since 2011 and the Patriots are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss in their previous game. Over this winning streak, the Patriots average margin of victory is 11 points against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played during the month of December. New England is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played in December.
|12-09-18||Eagles +4 v. Cowboys||Top||23-29||Loss||-110||123 h 5 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #129 Philadelphia Eagles over Dallas Cowboys (1:25p.m., Sunday, December 9 FOX) Everyone has just given the Cowboys the NFC East and disregarded the defending Super Bowl Champions. We will gladly take the points in this game and look for Philadelphia to come out strong in this must win game for them. The Eagles are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road divisional games when they are an underdog. The Cowboys are 9-18 ATS in their last 27 home divisional games when they are a favorite. The road team has covered the spread in 11 of the last 14 match-ups.
|12-02-18||Vikings v. Patriots -5.5||Top||10-24||Win||100||122 h 21 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #376 New England Patriots over Minnesota Vikings (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 2 FOX) These back to back road games on the docket for Minnesota will likely doom them in. Going to New England this week and Seattle the next week is as tough to travel as there is in the league. Minnesota just does not have the same defense that they had last year. New England will be able to score in the thirties in this game and I just do not believe Minnesota will be able to keep pace. The Patriots are starting to get healthy and they are always tough to beat in December (8-1 ATS last 9 December games). Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Patriots have just been going through the motions of late, but this is a game that they will get up for and win it by double-digits.
|11-24-18||Arizona State v. Arizona +2||Top||41-40||Win||100||93 h 35 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #234 Arizona Wildcats over Arizona State Sun Devils (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 24 FS1) PAC 12 GAME OF THE YEAR The home team has won the last 5 meetings in the Territorial Cup. Arizona needs to win this game to become bowl eligible and they have played much better down the stretch winning 2 of their last 3 games (both wins have come against teams that beat ASU). Arizona State should not be favored as they are just 1-4 straight-up on the road in 2018. There will be a lot of points in this game, but I like the way QB Khalil Tate has been playing over his last three games (12 touchdown and 3 interceptions). Arizona is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. The underdog is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 Territorial Cup meetings.
|11-17-18||Michigan State v. Nebraska +2.5||Top||6-9||Win||100||94 h 28 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #416 Nebraska Cornhuskers over Michigan State Spartans (12p.m., Saturday, November 17 FOX) Nebraska is one of the most improved teams in the country and they have a good chance to win their remaining two games on the schedule. They have been playing a home heavy schedule of late and this has allowed them to get healthy. Michigan State has a terrible offense and I just do not believe they will be able to attack and score consistently on this suspect Husker defense. Nebraska has covered the spread in 5 straight games including our top play a few weeks ago when they blew out Minnesota. This is just a classic case of two teams heading in different directions. QB Arian Martinez can play and will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come in this conference. Nebraska is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Michigan State (4-1 in Lincoln).
|11-10-18||South Florida v. Cincinnati -12||Top||23-35||Push||0||99 h 49 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #156 Cincinnati Bearcats over USF Bulls (7p.m., Saturday, November 10 ESPN U) The Bulls are in freefall at the moment having lost two straight games after a 7-0 start to the season. They will not get out of that funk tonight against Cincinnati a team that is a sneaky 8-1 on the season. USF is getting no respect from the linemakers evident by being a big underdog two of the last three weeks. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. USF played cupcakes to open the season and their defense will provide little resistance against the Bearcats. USF is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 AAC games. This is going to be a double-digit blowout for the Bearcats and we will collect big with them in the process.
|11-04-18||Chargers v. Seahawks -1||Top||25-17||Loss||-115||119 h 14 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #468 Seattle Seahawks over Los Angeles Chargers (1:05p.m., Sunday, November 4 CBS) The Seahawks have been playing outstanding football of late and will enter this game having won 4 of their last 5 games. It could be 5-0 if not for a 2-point loss to the Rams. QB Wilson is getting the job done with a bunch of unheralded playmakers around him. They were dominate for three quarters last week against the Lions and look for more of the same this Sunday at home against the Chargers. LA is still banged up on both sides of the football and might be without some key playmakers for this game. LA is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye. Seattle still has a lot of home games remaining this season and I look for them to win all of them and make the playoffs as a wild card. The Chargers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Seattle has covered the spread 4 of their last 5 games.
|11-03-18||Georgia Southern -7.5 v. UL-Monroe||Top||25-44||Loss||-104||94 h 14 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #377 Georgia Southern Eagles over ULM Warhawks (3p.m., Saturday, November 3 ESPN 3) The Eagles continue to cover spread (7-1 ATS run) and the oddsmakers cannot get a handle on the talent they have. They will enter this game having won five straight games and have been controlling the time of possession in nearly every game that they play. Georgia Southern has beaten ULM all three times they have faced each other as conference opponents. This selection is simple, ULM has trouble stopping the run and Georgia Southern is an outstanding triple option team. The Warhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. The Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played in the month of November.
|10-28-18||Packers +9.5 v. Rams||Top||27-29||Win||100||123 h 16 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #271 Green Bay Packers over Los Angeles Rams (4:25p.m., Sunday, October 28 FOX) TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK. This is one of the largest spreads you will ever see against the Packers with Aaron Rodgers has quarterback. I believe it is too big considering the Packers are coming off a bye and should be able to get some key players back for this game. The Rams have been struggling to cover big numbers despite last week’s romp against an inferior opponent (San Francisco). Expect a shootout int his game that goes down to the wire. Green Bay will have a ton of fans in Los Angeles for this game and the Rams struggled to win home games last year. 56% of the early money is coming in on the Packers and that seldom happens with an underdog with this big of a number. Green Bay has covered the spread 5 straight times against the LA Rams.
|10-20-18||Minnesota v. Nebraska -3.5||Top||28-53||Win||100||97 h 40 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #380 Nebraska Cornhuskers over Minnesota Golden Gophers (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 20 BTN) TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE WEEK. It ends tonight! Nebraska will put together a 60-minute game against a similar opponent talent wise and record their first victory of the season and first with Scott Frost as head coach. Minnesota played well last week at Ohio State, but I just do not believe they can put forth that same effort in this game. They did not play as well the last two games before that getting blown out by Maryland and Iowa. This will be their third road game in their last four games and both of their road games have come by double digits. I still like freshman QB Martinez and believe he will have success against this Gopher defense. The favorite in Gopher games has covered the spread 9 of the last 10 games. Nebraska had a 231-32 edge in rushing last week. Today is the day the stats reflect the result and Nebraska will win this game by double digits. We will hit a big play in the process as well.
|10-13-18||Georgia v. LSU +7.5||Top||16-36||Win||100||98 h 10 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #198 LSU Tigers over Georgia Bulldogs (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 13 CBS) SEC GAME OF THE YEAR Georgia has yet to be tested this season but their schedule ramps up from here on out. Playing at LSU is never an easy task and except them to be in for a 60-minute game today in Baton Rouge. LSU has covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games in October. The Tigers have the speed to contain Georgia and I just do not see a blowout in this game. We will gladly grab the points and not worry about who pulls this game out by a field goal.
|10-07-18||Wyoming v. Hawaii -3||Top||13-17||Win||100||106 h 56 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #414 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors over Wyoming Cowboys (11:59p.m., Saturday, October 6) Wyoming has a major problem on offense and if Hawaii does not beat themselves with turnovers, they will win this game by double digits. Hawaii took Wyoming into overtime last year with QB Allen playing for the Pokes. He will not be on the island this year and the Cowboys are averaging just 18 points and 300 total yards. Hawaii is coming off a 5OT win on the road last Saturday and they now are on pace to make a bowl game this season. When Wyoming loses, it tends to be big as their three losses this season have come by 22, 27, & 20 points. Wyoming put a lot into their game last week against Boise State in Laramie and they performed poorly. The oddsmakers have not caught onto how bad Wyoming is this season, as they have not covered a spread in their last 4 lined games.
|09-30-18||Browns v. Raiders -1.5||Top||42-45||Win||100||118 h 17 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #270 Oakland Raiders over Cleveland Browns (4:05p.m., Sunday, September 20 CBS) The Raiders have had chances in all three of their games but sit at 0-3. This is a very important game for the Raiders and a must win if they have any chance of making the playoffs this season. QB Baker Mayfield will get the start after a nice performance at home against the Jets. Playing in the Black Hole is a much harder task. Cleveland is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between Cleveland and Oakland.
|09-29-18||Boise State -17 v. Wyoming||Top||34-14||Win||100||97 h 15 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #203 Boise State Broncos over Wyoming Cowboys (7p.m., Saturday, September 30 CBSSN) The Cowboys and their fans will be up for this game but the fact remains they just do not have the offensive firepower to keep pace in this game. Wyoming is 2-2 this season but their wins have come against a terrible New Mexico State team and an FCS team in Wofford by just three points. If Boise State does not turn over the football they will win this game by 21+ points. Wyoming is 117th in the country in points per game and they have gotten pounded by Washington State and Missouri. I believe Boise State is better than both of those teams. Boise State has won 11 of the last 12 meetings. The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
|09-22-18||Stanford v. Oregon +3||Top||38-31||Loss||-115||101 h 37 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #356 Oregon Ducks over Stanford Cardinal (8p.m., Saturday, September 22 ABC) This is a game that can put Oregon on the national radar once again. A win will likely prevent Stanford for reaching the PAC-12 Championship Game and set up a battle between Washington and Oregon on October 13. The Ducks result last week was misleading as they were clearly looking ahead to this game and have revenge on their minds after getting pounded last year in Palo Alto. Getting rid of Willie Taggert can only be beneficial evident by this lack of success at Florida State. Stanford is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played in September. Oregon has the weapons to attack this Stanford defense and expect them to win straight-up. The Line has swing too much and the value now clearly lies with Oregon.
|09-16-18||Giants +3 v. Cowboys||Top||13-20||Loss||-108||122 h 53 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #287 New York Giants over Dallas Cowboys (8:20p.m., Sunday, September 16 NBC) Both teams are coming off losses in Week 1 but I just see more hope with the Giants compared to the Cowboys. Dallas used to have a strong offensive line but that is not the case anymore. They still have RB Elliott but defenses can stack the line against them since they do not have much deep threat wide receivers. Dallas is just 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games against a divisional team. New York will win this game straight-up because they have many more weapons on offense compared to Dallas. New York has covered the spread in 5 of the last 7 meetings with Dallas.
|09-15-18||Tulane -3.5 v. UAB||Top||24-31||Loss||-110||49 h 2 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #163 Tulane Green Wave over UAB Blazers (1p.m., Saturday, September 15 Facebook) NONCONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR UAB decided to bring back football for some reason after a two-year absence, but I just do not believe they can compete with teams from the American Athletic Conference. UAB is -77.5 ATS in their last 4 lined games and have lost 4 straight games against Tulane. The Green Wave are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 nonconference games. Tulane is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against UAB. Tulane just missed out on being bowl eligible last year and with Ohio State on deck this is a must win game for them in their hopes of reaching 6 wins. Tulane returns a ton of experience on offense led by QB Bank and WR Encalade. They should be able to pick apart the Blazers on defense and I just do not believe UAB will be able to keep pace. Tulane pulls away in the second half to win this game by double digits.
|09-09-18||Jaguars v. Giants +3||Top||20-15||Loss||-100||95 h 53 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #462 New York Giants over Jacksonville Jaguars (1p.m., Sunday September 9 FOX) Jacksonville is going to start the year in an unfamiliar role, as a road favorite. I see them taking a step back this season and things have to be better for the Giants in 2018. Jacksonville is just 2-6 ATS in road openers in recent years. QB Manning has numerous weapons this season, something he sorely lacked as the 2017 season progressed. Jacksonville’s defense feasted on bad quarterback play in their own division and I expect them to give up points and yards against effective quarterbacks. Jacksonville is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games played during the month of December.
|09-08-18||Wyoming v. Missouri -18||Top||13-40||Win||100||77 h 51 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #368 Missouri Tigers over Wyoming Cowboys (7p.m., Saturday September 8 ESPN U) The Tigers should have saw the blueprint of how to beat Wyoming if they scouted the game last week. Do not turn the ball over and make the Cowboys drive the 75 yards plus to score. Wyoming only had success last week against Washington State when the Cougars gave them short fields. The Cowboys were terrible on offense and will not be able to keep up in scoring in this game. Missouri has a tempo offense that usually scores points often and quickly especially against inferior competition. Wyoming is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games played in September. Missouri is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
|09-01-18||Washington State v. Wyoming +1.5||Top||41-19||Loss||-106||97 h 60 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #206 Wyoming Cowboys over Washington State Cougars (3:30p.m., Saturday September 1 CBSSN) TOP PLAY OF THE WEEKEND. Wyoming lost QB Josh Allen to the Buffalo Bills but they return a ton of starters all around that position. Washington State does not start off well under Coach Mike Leach, losing 5 of their 6 openers including two against FCS teams. Wyoming has a strong defense and playing in Laramie is always a tough challenge. Wyoming is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Washington State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Getting points makes this our strongest play, as we fully expect the Cowboys to win this game straight-up.
|02-04-18||Eagles v. Patriots -4||Top||41-33||Loss||-107||126 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #102 New England Patriots over Philadelphia Eagles (6:30p.m., Sunday February 4 NBC) I feel this is a pretty solid line, but I just cannot see New England losing this game straight-up. All of the Tom Brady Super Bowl games have been close and New England is just due for a convincing win to cap off a great career of Brady and Belichick. Nick Foles still cannot be trusted and I do not expect him to be able to put up big numbers on a neutral field against this New England defense. Philadelphia is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. New England is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record.
|01-14-18||Saints v. Vikings -4||Top||24-29||Win||100||121 h 28 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #308 Minnesota Vikings over New Orleans (4:40p.m., Sunday January 14 FOX) The Vikings will complete the season sweep of the Saints on Sunday. The Vikings have won 10 of their last 11 games and already beat the Saints by double digits. Despite the Saints being much improved on defense they are still at a major disadvantage in this game with an advantage of all three components of the defense (line, linebackers, and secondary). QB Brees will have to play outstanding for New Orleans to be competitive in this game and I do not see that happening. His receivers made remarkable catches last week against Carolina and I just do not believe that they can do that for a second consecutive week. New Orleans has not been playing that well of late going 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Minnesota is 34-16 ATS (1 push) in their last 41 home games.
Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports
|01-13-18||Falcons v. Eagles +3||Top||10-15||Win||100||97 h 15 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. Take #302 Philadelphia Eagles over Atlanta Falcons (4:35p.m., Saturday January 13 NBC) Everyone is on the Atlanta Falcons bandwagon and off the Philadelphia Eagles. A No. 1 seed has never been an underdog in the divisional round but that is the case on Saturday. The Eagles still have a ton of talent around the quarterback position and they will be able to play the no respect card in a big way on Saturday. Atlanta had the benefit of playing in a warm weather city last week but that will not be the case in Philadelphia this Saturday. QB Ryan has not played up to his MVP standards of a year ago and I still have no confidence in their offensive coordinator. The Eagles have a top ranked defense against the run and that should make Atlanta one-dimensional. The Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
|12-30-17||Washington v. Penn State -1.5||Top||28-35||Win||100||98 h 14 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #262 Take Penn State Nittany Lions over Washington Huskies (Fiesta Bowl, Saturday, 12/30 4 pm ESPN) COLLEGE BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR, MAGNIFICENT 7 GAME I felt all season long that Penn State was the best team in the Big 10. They blew the game against Ohio State and they got tripped up the following week at Michigan State in a game delayed by weather. Despite Washington returning a ton of players from last year’s team that made the playoff, they did not look very impressive this season. They lost two games in which there were favored and played a very weak nonconference schedule. Penn State played a much more difficult schedule and they have a major edge on offense especially in the trenches. Penn State won their last three games to close out the regular season by an average of 35 points per game and I believe they will win this game by double digits as well. Penn State is 9-2 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games.
|12-02-17||Ohio State v. Wisconsin +7||Top||27-21||Win||100||101 h 1 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #328 Take Wisconsin Badgers over Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday 8 pm FOX) People keep doubting the Badgers but all the do is win games and I just do not see this Ohio State team being able to run up and down the field on them. This is the best defense Wisconsin has ever had and QB J.T. Barrett is not the type of quarterback that can beat teams throwing the ball consistently down the field. Wisconsin looked much more impressive in games against Iowa and Michigan than did Ohio State (common opponents). This just has a different feeling that other Wisconsin appearances in the Big 10 Title Game. This Badger team is extremely confident on both sides of the football and this not as strong of Buckeye team as we have seen in the past. Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 4 straight games. Expect a game that is very competitive that goes down to the wire, but Wisconsin pulls it out by a field goal to advance to the CFP.
|11-23-17||Chargers v. Cowboys +1||Top||28-6||Loss||-110||49 h 59 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #110 Take Dallas Cowboys over Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday 4:30 pm CBS) The Cowboys face a must win situation when they host their annual Thanksgiving Day game. The Chargers are coming off their best performance of the season but most of that success had to be with Buffalo QB Nathan Peterman throwing five interceptions. The Chargers are playing on Thanksgiving for the first time since the merger and playing Thursday games on the road is always a tough task. Dallas is getting a step down in class compared to their last two games (Philadelphia & Atlanta) and should be getting back some of their players for this game. The Chargers never seem to handle prosperity well evident by their loss at Jacksonville two weeks ago and you just cannot count on them to win games consistently. Los Angeles is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a victory in their previous game. Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record.
|11-19-17||Lions v. Bears +3||Top||27-24||Push||0||119 h 13 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #452 Take Chicago Bears over Detroit Lions (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Bears are coming off a terrible performance against Green Bay last Sunday. They played terrible and coached terrible at different times in that game and still have a decent chance to win it. Now they take on the Lions, a team that has won two straight games, but they did not look impressive last week against Cleveland. The Bears beat the Lions last year in Chicago and Detroit is just 2-6 ATS (1 push) as a road favorite in a divisional game. Chicago is 8-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 home games when they are an underdog. Chicago has already beaten Pittsburgh and Carolina at home this season and Detroit never seems to handle prosperity very well.
|11-05-17||Rams v. Giants +3.5||Top||51-17||Loss||-105||120 h 8 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #454 Take New York Giants over Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Both teams are coming off a bye week and I just do not see the Giants getting blown out in this game. New York has owned this match-up beating Los Angeles 7 straight times (7-0 ATS) with a 13-point average margin of victory. The Rams are a nondivisional road favorite for just the third time in 10 years. I believe the Rams are playing a little over their heads now and this will be their second cross country flight in three weeks (London Game two weeks ago). The Rams are 2-10 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games against NFC teams. The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning road record.
|10-29-17||Bears v. Saints -9||Top||12-20||Loss||-105||118 h 23 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #254 Take New Orleans Saints over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Bears victory last week was fool’s gold and they are not a good team. Furthermore, their offense is terrible, and they will not be able to keep pace this week against New Orleans. The Saints did not even play well last week on the road and still won by 9 points against a team that already pounded the Bears. New Orleans defense is for real and when you pair that with QB Brees this is a team that can make some noise in the playoffs. The Saints have won four straight games via blowout and should have no problem winning this game against a rookie quarterback by double digits. QB Mitchell Trubisky has not done anything to make we believe he can win games on his own, as he is just completing 50% of his passes. If the Saints do not beat themselves, they will win this game going away.
|10-28-17||Penn State v. Ohio State -6||Top||38-39||Loss||-120||5 h 53 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #206 Take Ohio State Buckeyes over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR. This is just a brutal scheduling situation for Penn State. They are coming off an emotional high by beating Michigan last week. This is a game their assistant coaches said they wanted to win big in the worst way. Now they must go on the road into a hostile environment against a team that must win out in order to make the College Football Playoff. Despite losing last year to Penn State, Ohio State has won 4 of the last 5 match-ups and Coach Urban Meyer is 24-10 ATS (1 push) with revenge for losing to a team in the last meeting. Since their loss to Oklahoma, Ohio State has won five straight games with their closest margin of victory 31 points. Some like to point out that all these opponents Ohio State has played have been terrible but who exactly has Penn State played this year? Michigan is way down and Penn State could have very easily lost at Iowa on September 23rd. The posted line tells me a great deal about this game, as it opened at 7 after Penn State looked dominating last Saturday. It seems to me that odds makers were begging people to put money on Penn State. We will not fall for that trap and take the better team playing at home. The Buckeyes have covered the spread in their last 4 games.
|10-22-17||Saints v. Packers +6||Top||26-17||Loss||-115||118 h 6 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #466 Take Green Bay Packers over New Orleans Saints (Sunday 1 pm FOX) QB Rodgers will not be playing in this game but I feel that the spread has been over adjusted. Green Bay would have been around this much of a favorite if they had their No. 1 quarterback. Having a week to prepare Brett Hundley and playing at home will benefit this team and I see this as a field goal game. I believe New Orleans is playing a bit over their heads especially on defense and I expect them to revert back to the norm in this game. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
|10-15-17||Bucs v. Cardinals +2.5||Top||33-38||Win||100||121 h 13 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #268 Take Arizona Cardinals over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) We have been very successful all season long picking teams that looked bad the previous week and we will again use that format. Arizona did not come to play last week at Philadelphia but they still have some talent on both sides of the football. Arizona blasted Tampa Bay last season by a score of 40-7 and this is a game they need in the worst way to keep their slim chances of a playoff spot alive. Arizona has yet to cover a spread this season but I feel the odds makers have over adjusted the spread in this game. Arizona should be favored since and homefield will give them a big edge in this game.
|10-08-17||Ravens +2.5 v. Raiders||Top||30-17||Win||100||121 h 17 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #469 Take Baltimore Ravens over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) The Raiders have never been a team that seems to handle prosperity well and become a consistent playoff team. They have looked terrible on offense the last two weeks and now must play a game without their QB Derek Carr. Baltimore looked terrible last week as well against Pittsburgh but should be able to move the football better against this Oakland defense. The Raiders are never a good play as a home favorite going 11-25 in their last 36 occurrences. This was a one-point game last year with Oakland winning and I just cannot see Oakland blowing them out with E.J. Manuel behind center. Baltimore cannot play as bad on offense as they did last week, can they?
|10-07-17||Missouri v. Kentucky -10||Top||34-40||Loss||-110||101 h 49 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #402 Take Kentucky Wildcats over Missouri Tigers (Saturday 7:30 pm SEC Network) Missouri is a terrible team and we will go against them for a second straight week (Won big with Auburn in their last game). The Tigers have been blown out three straight games and only Auburn is a ranked team that they faced. Getting blown out by Purdue and South Carolina is a head scratching moment for a coach that is in over his head. This will be Missouri’s first road game and they are TERRIBLE on both sides of the football. They have nothing to hang their head on as their offense has not been able to move the football after their first game against an FCS team. Kentucky did not look that impressive against Eastern Michigan but they did hold the Eagles to just 20 yards rushing. Kentucky has a very solid rush defense and if they can make the Tigers one dimensional that should be enough to win this game big. We said two weeks ago that playing Missouri is a get-well game for the Auburn offense and the same thing will be true on Saturday for Kentucky. Missouri is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Kentucky has covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 SEC games.
|10-01-17||Raiders v. Broncos -2.5||Top||10-16||Win||100||123 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #276 Take Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) Oakland was exposed last week and I do not believe they will challenge to be the top team in the AFC. Now they are playing on the road for a second straight week against a divisional rival. Denver has won 8 of the last 10 games against Oakland. Denver has a bye on deck and the favorite has covered 8 of the last 9 games. Denver has a much better defense than does Oakland and playing in the Mile-High air should give QB Siemian some confidence. Denver is always a tough team to beat early in the season, especially at home and they get the job done against on Sunday afternoon.
|09-30-17||Georgia v. Tennessee +8||Top||41-0||Loss||-115||98 h 56 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #180 Take Tennessee Volunteers over Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) The SEC is a one team league and we have seen the other members go up and down and not be able to handle prosperity. Georgia is coming off a big win against Mississippi State and now must go on the road into hostile territory. The Volunteers have won two straight games against the Bulldogs despite trailing big in both of those games. Butch Jones is not a great coach but he has a habit of keeping the game close and he will accomplish this yet again on Saturday. The point spread has been over adjusted off Georgia’s game last week and we will take advantage of a favorable line. Georgia is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory in their previous game. Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.
|09-24-17||Dolphins v. Jets +6||Top||6-20||Win||100||96 h 30 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #468 Take New York Jets over Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1 pm CBS) Jay Cutler is not David Carr and I just do not believe he will be able to pick apart the Jets like the Raiders did last week. Miami was lucky to get a win last week in San Diego needing a missed field goal as time was expiring. I usually believe that teams bounce back after getting embarrassed the week before in the NFL and expect that to be the case here. This is a tough travel situation for Miami, coming back from San Diego and they have to go to London next week. Miami is 1-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games played during Week 3.
|09-23-17||Auburn -19 v. Missouri||Top||51-14||Win||100||101 h 22 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #373 Auburn Tigers over Missouri Tigers (Saturday 7:30 pm ESPN U) SEC GAME OF THE YEAR. Missou opens the 2017 season with 4 straight home games and after Saturday they will have recorded just 1 victory. Missouri has a terrible defense and this is clearly a get-well game for Auburn. Missouri has given up 66 points the last two weeks against two bad offensive teams in Purdue and South Carolina. They fired their defensive coordinator last week and still looked terrible. Auburn looked better than their total score indicated last week moving the ball up and down the field but were down in by 5 turnovers. If they protect the ball this week they will win big. Missouri is 3-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games played in September.
|09-17-17||Cowboys v. Broncos +2||Top||17-42||Win||100||122 h 30 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #284 Take Denver Broncos over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 4:24 pm FOX) Both teams are coming off home wins but we will ride the Broncos again to a hot start this year like what they did last year. New York looked lost without OBJ last week and Dallas will have a much tougher time containing the Broncos this week. Denver is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Denver is 7-0 in their past 7 home games during the first two weeks of the season. Denver has the better defense and we saw last week home far ahead the defenses are compared to the offenses in most cases. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.
Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports
|09-16-17||Wisconsin -13.5 v. BYU||Top||40-6||Win||100||99 h 43 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #153 Take Wisconsin Badgers over BYU Cougars (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) BYU has one of the worst offenses in the entire country. If Ty Detmer (offensive coordinator) were not a living legend at BYU he would have been replaced after the LSU game. I still believe there is a chance that may happen after this game. BYU has just produced two touchdowns the last two weeks and they came in garbage time against Utah last Saturday night. Wisconsin is coming off a lackluster performance in which they dominated the yardage (564-248) and time of possession but were did not cover the spread because of two turnovers. They will need to clean that up in this game. BYU will hold their own on defense but they will eventually wear down because of their lack of offensive efficiency. There seems to be a rift between the offense and the defense (including coaches) and this will be the best defense BYU has faced this season (Wisconsin beat LSU last year). Wisconsin has covered the spread in six straight road games. BYU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Badgers win this game by twenty points and we collect in the process as well.
|09-10-17||Seahawks v. Packers -3||Top||9-17||Win||100||93 h 1 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #474 Take Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) These teams seem to meet every year with the home team dominating this series (5-0 ATS last five games). The Hawks lost in Green Bay by 28 points last season and by 10 points in 2015. Green Bay is 8-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 home openers. The Packers have the better offense and QB Rodgers has enough weapons to attack this strong Hawks defense in a variety of ways. Seattle is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of September.
|09-09-17||TCU -3 v. Arkansas||Top||28-7||Win||100||99 h 33 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #364 Take TCU Horned Frogs over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) It is not often a road team is favored in a true SEC home game but it is well warranted in this situation. TCU returns a ton of experience from last year and they also have revenge on their minds after blowing a late lead to Arkansas last year in Fort Worth. TCU is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road openers winning those 9 games by an average of 18 points per game. Coach Gary Patterson is too good of a coach to be down for long and I expect TCU to come close to recording 10+ wins this season. Arkansas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. 61% of the early money is coming in on Arkansas yet the line keeps going up. That tells me the smart money is backing the road team.
|09-02-17||California v. North Carolina -11||Top||35-30||Loss||-110||92 h 34 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #178 Take North Carolina Tar Heels over Cal Golden Bears (Saturday 12:20 pm ACCN) Always like going against west coast teams playing a 12 pm eastern time start on the east coast. Cal has a new coach and I expect them to struggle on both sides of the football against North Carolina. The Tar Heels are 9-1 in their home openers over the last 10 years winning by an average margin of 35 points per game. The Bears got blown out in the last four losses in 2016 and they must replace all their skill position players from 2016. The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games when they are an underdog. UNC has covered the spread in 4 straight nonconference games.
|02-05-17||Patriots -3 v. Falcons||Top||34-28||Win||100||124 h 20 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #101 Take New England Patriots over Atlanta Falcons (Super Bowl 51, Sunday, 6:30 pm FOX) Just cannot bet my hard-earned money against Brady and Belichick. The Patriots are the more complete team on both sides of the football and will have two weeks before kickoff to devise a plan to slow down this high-powered Atlanta offense. If New England can jump on to a lead early I see them winning this game by double digits as Atlanta has not faced that much over the last couple of months. The Falcons still have a very shaky defense and if New England is balanced that will not allow their front four to just tee off on the quarterback. The current Patriots have won four of their six Super Bowls and Belichick and Brady have won 24 playoff games together. The Patriots have the No. 1 ranked defense and the defense has the advantage when playing the No. 1 offense in the Super Bowl winning five of the last six meetings. Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 playoff games (0-6 ATS prior to this year). New England has covered the spread in five straight games against teams with a winning record.
|01-14-17||Texans +16 v. Patriots||Top||16-34||Loss||-100||98 h 33 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #303 Take Houston Texans over New England Patriots (Saturday 8:15 pm CBS) NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR. The Texans are a huge underdog in this game despite having one of the best defenses in the league. New England is solid to good on both sides of the football but I just feel Houston is due to put forth a good performance against New England. The Texans have a lot of coaches with New England ties and they were gutless in the meeting against the Patriots this year. Only twice in their last thirteen postseason games have the Patriots won a game by more than 13 points. Houston has enough talent to hang around and I just do not see a 20+ point victory in this game. New England is 11-1 ATS since the return of Tom Brady and sooner or later the law of averages will have to even out. The same thing happened with Temple covering 12 straight games before losing outright to Wake Forest in the Military Bowl. I am not predicting a straight-up win for the Texans but I feel they can keep this game closer than the posted number.
|01-09-17||Clemson +7 v. Alabama||Top||35-31||Win||100||151 h 55 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #151 Take Clemson Tigers over Alabama Crimson Tide (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) This is just too many points considering Clemson has the much better offense and a couple of playmakers on defense. The spread is solely based on Nick Saban and the respect everyone has for him. He is great but as we saw last week with Urban Meyer, the head coach alone cannot will his team to a victory. Alabama has yet to see an explosive offense like Clemson that can beat you on the ground or through the air. The SEC was way down this year in terms of talent on offense and Deshaun Watson will pick them apart like he did last year. He has not played very many clean games in 2016 but I believe this will be a breakout performance that will propel him up the draft board. Throw in the fact that Clemson has revenge and I really believe Clemson wins this game straight-up. Clemson has covered the spread in six straight bowl games. Clemson is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.
|01-01-17||Packers -3.5 v. Lions||Top||31-24||Win||105||127 h 31 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #309 Take Green Bay Packers over Detroit Lions (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) Nobody will be giving the Lions a chance to win this game and we will be in that boat as well. Detroit has not performed well in two consecutive games and now likely face a winner take all on Sunday Night Football. The Lions have not win a division title since 1993 and they have never made it to the Super Bowl in their franchises existence. Green Bay has beaten Detroit 20 of the last 25 meetings and they are just functioning much better now. Detroit got picked apart by the Dallas passing attack on Monday night and I just do not expect their corners to be able to slow down the Packer wide receivers. Aaron Rodgers is now able to use his feet and that makes him the best dual threat quarterback in the league. Green Bay has won five straight games and Clay Matthews is playing at a high level making this one of the better defensive teams in the league. Detroit is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 divisional games. Green Bay is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 divisional games.
|12-28-16||Kansas State v. Texas A&M -2||Top||33-28||Loss||-110||195 h 21 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #250 Take Texas A&M Aggies over Kansas State Wildcats (Texas Bowl, Wednesday, 12/28 9 pm ESPN) BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR. The Aggies are starting to get healthy with Myles Garrett and Trevor Knight expected to suit up for this game. They just have too many weapons on offense for Kansas State to keep pace with. Everybody loves Bill Snyder but the game has passed him by as the Wildcats still feature a run heavy offense that can be contained by a disciplined defense. Kansas State has not been very competitive in their last two bowl games (both losses) and they will complete the trifecta this Wednesday. We went against them two years ago with our Bowl Game of the Year and UCLA dominated that game even though the final score did not indicate that (UCLA won and covered the spread). Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. A&M once again did not finish out the season well but the time off has done them good and they should be ready to finish out the season on a high note. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. A&M is 4-1 in their last 5 neutral site games. Both trends hold true on Wednesday and we lay the small change with the more athletic team.
|12-25-16||Broncos +3.5 v. Chiefs||Top||10-33||Loss||-112||121 h 42 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #129 Take Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) These two teams fought to the death in their first match-up of the season in a game that nearly ended in a tie. Denver has been left for dead on the year but they still have a chance to get to 10 wins on the season and have a chance for a wild card. Kansas City has lost two of their last three home games and were held scoreless in the second half in the other game barely holding off Oakland. Denver blew an 8-point lead with under 20 seconds to play in the first meeting and their defense is still Super Bowl caliber. Denver is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss in their previous game. Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. The hook may come into play as this will be another hard fought AFC West game.
|12-24-16||Vikings v. Packers -6.5||Top||25-38||Win||100||89 h 10 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #112 Take Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings (Saturday 1 pm FOX) The Packers got back doored last week against Chicago blowing a 17-point lead and costing us our top play winning streak. But we will use them again on Saturday against a worse offensive team that Chicago. Green Bay needs to win out to have a chance to reach the playoffs and they have revenge on their minds in this game as well. Minnesota opened their new stadium with a victory over Green Bay earlier this year but that was a completely different Viking team than what we will see today. Green Bay has covered the spread in 22 of their last 33 divisional games. Minnesota has lost 7 of their last 9 games.
|12-11-16||Seahawks v. Packers +3||Top||10-38||Win||100||122 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #128 Take Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) When two good teams met late in the season I generally side with the team that needs it more. At 6-6 the Packers definitely need this game more and they have beaten Seattle six straight times in Green Bay (average margin of victory 16 points per game). I truly believe the wrong team is favored considering Seattle laid an egg in their last road game at Tampa Bay. Seattle pounded Carolina last week but lost Earl Thomas in the process and that will come back to bite them in this game. Green Bay beat Seattle by double digits last season and their defense is finally starting to show signs of life. Seattle still has a terrible offensive line and Green Bay will get to QB Russell Wilson a few times in this game. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of December.
|12-04-16||Texans v. Packers -6.5||Top||13-21||Win||100||116 h 22 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #356 Take Green Bay Packers over Houston Texans (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Packer defense showed some signs off life last week against Philadelphia and now they face a much easier challenge this week against Houston. The Texans have struggled on the road being outscored by an average of 14 points per game (27-13). Green Bay still has a path to the playoffs by winning the division and for them to accomplish that this is a must win game. QB Rodgers picked apart the strong Philadelphia defense last Monday and Houston has been playing without JJ Watt for the entire season leaving a major void in the front seven. This is the first home game for Green Bay since November 6th and it now appears that this season is not lost for them. The Packers just have a major edge at the quarterback position with Rodgers compared to Brock Osweiler, who has struggled mightily this season. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in December. Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
|11-27-16||Titans -5 v. Bears||Top||27-21||Win||100||116 h 18 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #254 Take Tennessee Titans over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Bears have been decimated by injuries this season and this is likely the last month and a half for QB Jay Cutler and HC John Fox. Tennessee did not play well last week in Indianapolis (place they never win) but should find it much easier to put points on the board in Chicago on Sunday. Chicago is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games and they are just playing out the string hoping against hope they can keep their remaining players healthy. Tennessee is scoring over 31 points per game in their last seven games and Chicago will have trouble keeping up with them. Chicago is 3-11 ATS when playing a home game following a loss in their previous game. The Bears did not score a point in the last 30 minutes at MetLife Stadium and I do not see things getting any better today. The crowd will not be engaged early and I just do not see the Bears giving them a reason to cheer.
|11-20-16||Eagles +6.5 v. Seahawks||Top||15-26||Loss||-105||123 h 4 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #471 Take Philadelphia Eagles over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) Seattle looked impressive last week against New England but that cross-country flight home from a Sunday night game will take its toll on them for this game. Their offensive line is still weak and they will face a much better defense today than they saw from the Patriots last week. Look for the defenses of both teams to dominate this game and that puts us in a good shape as we are getting close to a touchdown. The Seahawks have not been the same dominating team at home this year, as they have had close games against Atlanta, Buffalo, and Miami. Philadelphia is better than two of those teams and they have a quarterback that should be getting better with more experience. Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against NFC teams.
|11-19-16||Washington State v. Colorado -4.5||Top||24-38||Win||100||98 h 7 m||Show|
4 Unit Play. #374 Take Colorado Buffaloes over Washington State Cougars (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) These are two of the surprise teams in the country and very similar styles on offense. They both like to score points as quickly as possible. Both teams control their own destiny to make the conference championship game but I have not been impressed with the Cougars road play of late. They struggled to beat Oregon State and Arizona State and will face a much better team today in Boulder. Colorado is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Colorado is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
|11-13-16||49ers v. Cardinals -13||Top||20-23||Loss||-115||122 h 7 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #270 Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) We have gone against the 49ers in their last two games and look to complete the trifecta on Sunday. San Francisco is getting destroyed by teams in the second half and their lack of talent and time of possession is catching up with them. San Francisco cannot stop the run and they are allowing 37.1 points per game over their last seven games. Arizona already won at San Francisco this year by double digits with a backup quarterback. Things should go even smoother today for what is a must win game for Arizona if they have visions of making the playoffs. Arizona has won three straight games in this series by an average of 19 points per game. San Francisco is 3-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games against NFC West teams. Arizona is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a losing record.
|11-06-16||Broncos +1 v. Raiders||Top||20-30||Loss||-110||128 h 14 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #471 Take Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) It has been a while since the Raiders have gotten on NBC and I fully expect them to fall flat on their face in this game. Oakland has already lost two road games this season and they have yet to cover the spread in any home game this season. They have the better quarterback in this game but penalties are always a major concern with this team. I still believe the league and the officials are out to get this team because of Al Davis and they look to throw flags against them on every play. Tampa Bay had every opportunity to win last week against Oakland yet could not take advantage of the situation. That will not happen with Denver one of the better coached teams in the league. Oakland ranks at the bottom of the league in both pass & run defense. The Raiders have played a very easily schedule thus far as the AFC South and NFC South are not all that good. Oakland is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 divisional games. Denver is 8-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games overall.
|11-05-16||Iowa +7 v. Penn State||Top||14-41||Loss||-120||24 h 52 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #405 Take Iowa Hawkeyes over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 7:30 pm BTN) BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR. Penn State is getting a lot of publicity for beating Ohio State but they are overvalued now. These are two similar teams and should be around a field goal spread and thus we will gladly grab this many points with a team that plays well on the road. Iowa has won nine straight road games including three conference games this season. This is not expected to be a whiteout for the home team and I just do not believe Penn State is good enough to be laying this many points against top teams in the league. Penn State was an underdog to Maryland and Pittsburgh this season and now they are a touchdown favorite against a better team than those two. Iowa is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games. If they can stabilize this game early, it should go down to the wire. Penn State is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Iowa is a better team as an underdog and their senior quarterback will make enough plays to keep this game close and pull out the straight-up victory.
|11-05-16||Vanderbilt v. Auburn -25.5||Top||16-23||Loss||-106||95 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #366 Take Auburn Tigers over Vanderbilt Commodores (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) We will continue to ride Auburn as they are playing like one of the best teams in the country at the moment. The Tigers have won five straight games and only one game was below double digits. Auburn has an outstanding rushing attack with a three-headed monster. Vanderbilt has played a very weak SEC schedule thus far and it does not get much tougher either as this is their toughest game on the schedule. They need to win two of their last four games to go bowling and I do not see that happening. Vanderbilt has a good defense but they have yet to play an explosive offense like Auburn. The Tigers have covered the spread in five straight games. The Commodores are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win in their previous game.
|10-30-16||Patriots -6.5 v. Bills||Top||41-25||Win||100||120 h 52 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #259 Take New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 pm CBS) This is a revenge game for the Patriots as they lost to Buffalo earlier this season without QB Tom Brady. New England is 3-0 since the return of Tom Brady and they have won all three games by double digits. Now Buffalo is banged up with RB LeSean McCoy have been injured in the last two games. With Robert Woods also banged up (did not play last week) I just do not believe Tyrod Taylor can win this game on his own without any weapons. New England has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games.
|10-23-16||Vikings -2.5 v. Eagles||Top||10-21||Loss||-109||120 h 44 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #453 Take Minnesota Vikings over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Eagles are in freefall at the moment having lost two straight games to mediocre teams (Detroit & Washington) and now must face the best defense in the league. QB Carson Wentz is starting to get found out and one must remember that he is still a rookie and set the bar so high during the first three weeks of the season. Philadelphia did not score an offensive touchdown last week and their vaunted defense is starting to show some cracks giving up 231 rushing yards last week at Washington. The Eagles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
|10-22-16||Arkansas v. Auburn -9.5||Top||3-56||Win||100||101 h 43 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #401 Take Auburn Tigers over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 6 pm ESPN) The line on this game is very telling! Both teams have two losses and Arkansas is ranked higher than Auburn the polls yet the Tigers come in as close to a double-digit favorite. Arkansas had to run the gauntlet the first three weeks of conference play with games against Texas A & M, Alabama, and Ole Miss. It is hard to believe that they will have much left in the tank for this game especially since they have yet to have a bye this year (this is their 8th game in 8 weeks). Auburn is coming off a bye and they enter this game on a three game winning streak. Auburn lost a 4OT game to Arkansas last year but Auburn is trending way up in 2016. The Tigers are 12th in the country in rushing and the Razorbacks are 80th in the country in rushing defense.
|10-09-16||Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders||Top||31-34||Win||100||71 h 50 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #469 Take San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) NFL GAME OF THE MONTH.The Chargers get up for this game and have covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings (won both meetings last year). The Chargers are playing good football; they are just blowing leads in the fourth quarter. Oakland has never handled being the favorite well, going 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when they are favored at the Coliseum. Taking these stats even further, the underdog in this series has covered the spread in 13 of the last 14 games. The Chargers could easily be 4-0 on the season, and I see this game going down to the wire as well. San Diego is scoring over 30 points per game, and Oakland is in the bottom three in yards allowed (rushing and passing). The stats all favor the Chargers, and expect them to protect the football and win this game straight-up.
|10-01-16||Utah State v. Boise State -19.5||Top||10-21||Loss||-105||106 h 48 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #214 Take Boise State Broncos over Utah State Aggies (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN 2) The Mountain West is a battle between two teams for the top spot and Utah Stat is not one of those teams. Boise State has traditionally dominated this league and this match-up going 12-1 against Utah State. That being said the Broncos were embarrassed last year in Logan losing 52-26 despite being a 9-point favorite. That loss was solely on the play of the Broncos giving away the game with 8 turnovers. Utah State has been on a downward trend after reaching the pinnacle in 2012 going 11-2. They lost to Akron last year in a bowl game (The Zips first ever bowl win) and they are just 2-2 this season. Coach Matt Wells has messed up the offense with a rotation of numerous quarterbacks over the last couple of years and now falls to Kent Myers, a former wide receiver. He showed some promise earlier in his career but like most of their quarterbacks has gotten worse the more he plays and gets coached. The Broncos are back to normal and they are on a mission to run the table and still have an outside shot at a spot in the college football playoff if San Diego State continues to win games as well. Their game last week against Oregon State was not as close as the final score would indicate and you can be sure they will not take this game lightly whatsoever. Utah State is 2-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games. The last time these two teams met in Boise is was a 50-19 victory for the Broncos and that was against a more talented Aggies team that what they will see on Saturday.
|09-25-16||Ravens v. Jaguars +1||Top||19-17||Loss||-102||90 h 58 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #468 Take Jacksonville Jaguars over Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 1 pm CBS) AFC GAME OF THE YEAR. The line on this game tells me a great deal. The Jaguars have been a doormat for most of their existence and are 0-2 facing a 2-0 team. Yet this is a pick’em game and all of the public will be lining up to put down their money on Baltimore. That being said Baltimore was outplayed by Cleveland last week and going on the road for a second consecutive week will be too much for them to overcome. If Baltimore holds as a favorite once must consider the stat of 2-10 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 14 games as a favorite. Jacksonville is desperate for a win here as many experts believe that this is a talented enough roster to challenge for a playoff spot in the AFC this season. Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games following a game in which they scored less than 15 points. This is not a sexy pick but like Los Angeles last week it is one that should grab the money.
|09-24-16||Florida v. Tennessee -6.5||Top||28-38||Win||100||97 h 16 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #384 Take Tennessee Volunteers over Florida Gators (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) I just cannot get out of my head how well Tennessee played to close out the 2015 season. Sooner or later they will get back to that level since they return most of their 2015 talent. It has not really happened this season but this is the game they will breakout and performance at a high level. They have no excuses not to be up for this game since Florida has beaten them 11 straight years. But the Gators will be without their starting quarterback and that does not bode well playing in a hostile environment. All three of Tennessee’s victories this season have come over the posted number for today’s game. Tennessee is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Florida is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
|09-17-16||Oregon +3 v. Nebraska||Top||32-35||Push||0||68 h 3 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #167 Take Oregon Ducks over Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday 12:30 pm ABC) Nonconference Game of the Year. Do not be misled by the final score of the Wyoming – Nebraska game last week. It was 24-17 before Wyoming had four consecutive turnovers giving Nebraska 28 fourth quarter points and the cover. Oregon will not be as giving and will make Nebraska go the length of the field in order to score points. That is something QB Tommy Armstrong struggles to do, as he did not look that impressive last week and has trouble hitting is receivers in stride. Throw in the fact that Mike Riley is just 4-10 against Oregon and we will gladly take the points with the better and more talented team. The Ducks will never reach the heights they did under Marcus Mariota but they still have an explosive system that can put on points in the blink of the eye. Despite being a decent Michigan State team last year with the help of a controversial call, Nebraska has underperformed in big games through most of the last decade and whenever fans start to believe in this team they just lay an egg. Oregon is 22-5 ATS in their last 27 road games. The points are just icing on the cake as Oregon will win this game straight-up.
|09-11-16||Raiders v. Saints -1||Top||35-34||Loss||-113||94 h 22 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #462 Take New Orleans Saints over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against the Raiders are our top selection in the preseason and will do so yet again in Week 1 of the Regular Season. Just feel this team is vastly overrated and people are forgetting how poorly they closed out the 2015 Regular Season. Although the Saints have not been as dominating in New Orleans the last couple of years compared to 2011-2013, it is still an extremely difficult place to play and something the Raiders have not done so in 8 years. It is always tough for a west coast team to play an early Sunday game and Oakland is just 1-18 straight-up when the game starts at 1 pm eastern time. Oakland is equally as bad on the road in general winning just 6 of their last 32 road games. Drew Brees is still the best player on the field and he has covered the spread against Oakland seven straight games. New Orleans covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games in 2016.
|09-10-16||South Carolina v. Mississippi State -6.5||Top||14-27||Win||100||71 h 17 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #364 Take Mississippi State Bulldogs over South Carolina Gamecocks (Saturday 7 pm ESPN 2) SEC Game of the Year. We went against the Bulldogs last week and won outright despite getting 28.5 points! Now the odds makers feel that the public will overreact to that game and put a pile of money on South Carolina since they won on the road last week in Nashville. That just sets up great for us and we will gladly lay less than a touchdown with a much better team that is used to the Dan Mullen system. Mississippi State should have knocked out South Alabama last week as they jumped out to a 17-0 lead before falling apart in the second half. South Carolina does not have a high powered offense and Will Muschamp was fired at Florida for his lack of innovation. South Carolina will not be able to cover this spread unless the score in the twenties and I expect them to struggle doing that. Both teams play multiple quarterbacks but Dan Mullen is the better offense coach and thus the Bulldogs will bounce back in a big way on Saturday. South Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Mississippi State is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 SEC games. Beating Vanderbilt is one thing, but Mississippi State is clearly a step-up from that bottom feeder program and will be USC by double digits allowing us to collect big in the process.
|09-03-16||Hawaii v. Michigan -40||Top||3-63||Win||100||112 h 1 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #156 Take Michigan Wolverines over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) This is a ton of points to be laying but I just do not see anyway Hawaii keeps it close. Hawaii is faced with a brutal travel situation having played in Australia last Friday late night and now must come to Michigan this week. Hawaii faced two Big 10 teams last year in Wisconsin and Iowa and they failed to score a single point in either of those two games. I do not believe this Hawaii team is better than the 2015 version despite an upgrade in coaching. This is a complete rebuild for new coach and I believe they will lose this game by 50 points. Michigan is expecting big things this year and they could not ask for an easier start to the season with six of their first seven games at home. Michigan is 23-3 in home openers and if a bad Hawaii team can get pounded by Cal last week (backdoor covered that game) I just do not see that happening today. Jim Harbaugh is not the type of coach to take the foot of the peddle and allow Hawaii to backdoor cover this game. Michigan gets close to 60 points and wins this game and covers the spread.
|01-24-16||Patriots -3 v. Broncos||Top||18-20||Loss||-104||98 h 37 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #311 Take New England Patriots over Denver Broncos (Sunday 3 pm CBS) The Patriots are favored on the road for a reason and we fully expect them to take care of business in Denver on Sunday. Denver came back to beat New England in the regular season but most felt that the Patriots got a bad whistle in that game. Denver has a good defense but I am just not sure their offense can make enough plays to win especially in the passing game. People are giving QB Peyton Manning to much credit for winning these last two games against depleted teams. Pittsburgh had a terrible secondary and Denver still did not do much in the passing game. The Patriots laid down during the last few games of the regular season in order to get healthy and we saw the fruits of that decision last week against Kansas City. I believe the Chiefs are a better team at the moment than the Broncos (won in Denver this year) and New England handled them with relative ease. Denver has scored just 1 touchdown in their last 27 drives during the playoffs. Denver is 1-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 playoff games.
|01-17-16||Seahawks v. Panthers -2.5||Top||24-31||Win||100||96 h 34 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #306 Take Carolina Panthers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 1:05 pm FOX) NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR. I am just not putting all of Seattle’s offensive struggles on the cold weather last week. They played outstanding against Arizona in Week 17 but the two games in the last three weeks they played terrible. Carolina was a perfect 8-0 at home this season (6-2 ATS) and they have the better offensive team on the field. The Panthers were 4-0 against teams with a winning record (4-0 ATS) and Seattle was just 3-4 ATS (1 push) against teams with a winning record. This is a game Carolina and especially their coach and quarterback need to justify their place as one of the top teams in the league. They get it by 7-10 points and we collect big in the process as well.
|01-10-16||Packers v. Redskins +1||Top||35-18||Loss||-104||97 h 51 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #108 Take Washington Redskins over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 4:40 pm FOX) The Packers have been in a downward spiral for the last part of this season and I just do not believe that they can put it together on Sunday. By now we all know the problems that this team faces and Washington is at home and riding high after finishing strong to close out the regular season and win the NFC East. The gameplan to beat the Packers has been simple, keep your men close to the line of scrimmage as the Packers are struggling to go over the top. Washington moves onto the second round and we collect in the process as well. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Washington is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
|01-09-16||Steelers -2.5 v. Bengals||Top||18-16||Loss||-105||77 h 38 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #105 Take Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals (Saturday 8:15 pm CBS) Both teams have key players on offense that are questionable but regardless I see the Steelers rolling in this game. Pittsburgh has won 13 of their last 15 games in Cincinnati and expect that to hold true again on Saturday. Cincinnati has had no playoff success under Marvin Lewis and if things to do go their way early expect the sideline to become tight and panic will set it. Big Ben put up monster numbers this season passing the football and Pittsburgh just beat Cincinnati a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.
|01-03-16||Raiders +7.5 v. Chiefs||Top||17-23||Win||100||124 h 52 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #315 Take Oakland Raiders over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) I believe a little wind was taken out the Chiefs sails when Cincinnati blew a big lead against Denver on Monday Night Football. Now they face a divisional team with some injuries on defense playing a team with extra rest (Oakland played on Thursday last week). The Raiders have a chance to finish the season 8-8 and they have a winning record on the road. In the first game, Oakland was in control before turnovers proved costly in the fourth quarter. This is the final game of Charles Woodson’s career and I believe Oakland takes this game down to the wire. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
|12-26-15||Indiana -2 v. Duke||Top||41-44||Loss||-110||122 h 55 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #231 Take Indiana Hoosiers over Duke Blue Devils (Pinstripe Bowl, Saturday, 12/26 3:30 pm ABC) Nothing better than watching a football game in a baseball stadium but that will be the case today when the Hoosiers invade the Big Apple. Indiana has a very shaky defense but a good offense that can put up points. But this play is more about going against Duke, as they have yet to recover from their loss to Miami that featured some bad calls by the officials. The Blue Devils would go on to lose their next three games and only beat Wake Forest by six points in their season finale. Duke gave up over 350 yards per game passing in their last four games and expect the Hoosiers to move up and down the football field. Duke has lost three straight bowl games and actually has not won a bowl game since 1961. Indiana finished the season strong with two blowout wins and was very competitive with Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan. Indiana played a very difficult schedule and thus their 6-6 record does not look that bad. Duke is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 nonconference games.
|12-05-15||Air Force v. San Diego State -6.5||Top||24-27||Loss||-115||102 h 13 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #328 Take San Diego State Aztecs over Air Force Falcons (MWC Championship Game, Saturday, 7:30 pm ESPN 2) Nobody expected the Aztecs to run the table in the MWC going a perfect 8-0 and they have yet to have a competitive game. Air Force still is a triple option and I expect the Aztec defense to be ready for it, as they have the best defense in the conference. The host team has won both MWC Championship games and tonight should be no different. SDSU has the best player in the league in Donnel Pumphrey and Air Force will have no answer for him, as the Falcons gave up 377 rushing yards last week against New Mexico. San Diego State is 4-1 against Air Force and a perfect 5-0 ATS. SDSU is 6-2 in their last 8 home games against Mountain West teams. Air Force is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road Mountain West games. San Diego State has won 8 straight games by double digits and 10 straight home games against MWC teams (25 point margin of victory). This is a high powered train and we will ride them to another victory.
|11-29-15||Giants -2.5 v. Redskins||Top||14-20||Loss||-115||96 h 59 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #259 Take New York Giants over Washington Redskins (Sunday 1 pm FOX) I feel the Giants are the best team in the NFC East and expect a big effort from them coming off of their bye week. Washington looked terrible last week against Carolina with just 10 first downs and 185 yards of offense. The Redskins defense is coming apart, giving up a ton of points of late. New York has beaten Washington five straight times (5-0 ATS), including a double-digit victory in Week 3 this season. I just trust Eli Manning more than I do Kirk Cousins and expect a big performance from the Giants in this contest. New York is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 road games.
|11-28-15||Northwestern -3.5 v. Illinois||Top||24-14||Win||100||75 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #195 Take Northwestern Wildcats over Illinois Fighting Illini (3:30 pm ESPN U) The Wildcats have rebounded nicely after a two-game losing streak to win their last four games. They are coming off a nice victory at Wisconsin and have a big advantage since this neutral game in being played in Chicago. The Illini need this game to become bowl eligible, but they will not get it since Northwestern is the better-rounded team. Illinois has lost five of their last six games, with their only win during this time coming against hapless Purdue. Northwestern is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following an ATS victory in their previous game.
|11-22-15||Chiefs -2.5 v. Chargers||Top||33-3||Win||100||122 h 39 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #473 Take Kansas City Chiefs over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 1:05 pm CBS) Thankfully this game got flexed out of Sunday Night Football, as the Chargers are certainly a team nobody wants to watch. Kansas City still has talent and they are starting to put it together having won three straight games including a dominating victory at Denver last week. The Chargers have just beaten Detroit and Cleveland this year and their home field advantage is nonexistent with the rumors that they are moving to Los Angeles next year. Kansas City beat San Diego both times in 2014 and the Chargers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 years coming off a bye. San Diego has an uninspiring coach who will likely be replaced next year and they are just playing out the string.
|11-21-15||Notre Dame -17 v. Boston College||Top||19-16||Loss||-106||123 h 19 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #407 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Boston College Eagles (Saturday 7:30 pm NBC) The Eagles have a solid defense and a terrible offense. This team has trouble moving the football at all through the ground or the air and they are one of the worst offenses in the entire country. They have major quarterback issues and this is causing their defense to wear down as the season goes on. We went against Boston College in their last two home games as top plays and easily collected on both of them despite so-so teams in Virginia Tech and NC State. Notre Dame has a clear path into the playoffs if they just win out, but expect them to go for some style points in this night game on national TV. Both teams will be pumped about playing at Fenway Park, but I just do not see Boston College being able to score enough points to stay within this posted number. Boston College is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. Notre Dame gradually increases their lead to wins this by close to 28 points.
|11-15-15||Cowboys v. Bucs -1||Top||6-10||Win||100||120 h 32 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #253 Take Dallas Cowboys over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against Tampa Bay numerous times this season including last week against another NFC East foe. Dallas is not going to make the playoffs this season but they have shown some improvement under Matt Cassel and are getting healthy at other spots besides quarterback. The Cowboys have covered 8 of their last 11 road games. QB Jameis Winston is just not ready to win consistently in the league and Tampa Bay is just 1-3 at Raymond James Stadium this season. This will not be a pretty game to watch but getting points with the better team is too good to pass up.
|11-08-15||Giants -2.5 v. Bucs||Top||32-18||Win||100||97 h 29 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #467 Take New York Giants over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) The Giants have been an up and down team this year but we expect them to bounce back in a big way on Sunday. New York scored 49 points last week in New Orleans yet lost the game but I just do not believe the Buccaneers have the same offensive firepower that New Orleans does. With the Patriots on deck this is a game that the Giants need to get to keep their hopes of winning the NFC East alive. Tampa Bay has lost 11 of their last 12 home games and covered the spread in just three of those games. New York is 4-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 road games. Tampa Bay is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS victory in their previous game.
|11-07-15||Michigan State -4.5 v. Nebraska||Top||38-39||Loss||-110||120 h 32 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #421 Take Michigan State Spartans over Nebraska Cornhuskers (Saturday 7 pm ESPN) If it has not become clear by now that the Mike Riley hire is a failure and the AD who made that hire is in serious trouble. Nebraska is 3-6 on the season and they have lost four of their last five games. This team has lost in a variety of ways but how you can give up 55 points to Purdue and lose by double digits is beyond me. Now they face the toughest team on their schedule and we will gladly lay this number with a team is starting to hit their stride. The Spartans are coming off of a bye and they have won two straight games against Nebraska. Last year’s final was 27-22 but it was not as close as it would seem with Nebraska trailing 27-3 in that game. The Spartans have not been as dominating as they were last year but they are still undefeated and played their best game of the season last time out putting up 52 points against Indiana. Michigan State still has a great quarterback in Connor Cook and he has 17 touchdowns on the season and just two interceptions. Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong will likely return but much of his production has come in the second half or against bad teams. Michigan State is 18-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 road games. Nebraska is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning road record. These two teams are heading in opposite directions and Nebraska cannot get out of its own way.
|11-07-15||NC State -3.5 v. Boston College||Top||24-8||Win||100||113 h 0 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #357 Take NC State Wolfpack over Boston College Eagles (Saturday, November 7th, 2015, 12:30 pm ESPN 3) We went against Boston College for our 6-unit selection last week against Virginia Tech and will come right back fading them this week. Boston College has a good defense but they have one of the worst offenses in the entire country. They have major quarterback issues and they have lost five straight games including just 300 yards of total offense combined in their last two games. NC State took a body blow from the best team in the ACC last week. They hung with Clemson for a little bit but just could not get off the field enough to win the game. They should have a much easier time stopping Boston College on Saturday, an Eagles team that cannot get out of their own way. North Carolina State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Lay the points with the better team.
|11-01-15||Jets -1.5 v. Raiders||Top||20-34||Loss||-110||122 h 35 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #269 Take New York Jets over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) Everything in the world went right for three quarters last week for the Oakland Raiders in San Diego. But I always believe that there is not any carryover in the NFL from week to week and expect a much different outcome in this game. Unlike the Chargers, the Jets have a defense and a strong running attack. New York gave the Patriots all that they could handle for 60 minutes and feel just short when they could not get off the field on a couple of key third downs. This line opened as a pick but now the early money is coming on the Jets for good reason. Oakland has already lost two home games this season and this will be the best defense that they have faced all season. The Jets have covered 7 of their last 9 games (1 push). New York has beaten Oakland each of the last two years by an average margin of victory of 7.5. New York is 4-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 road games. Oakland has never handled prosperity well going 3-12 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games following a victory in their previous game.
|11-01-15||Cardinals -4.5 v. Browns||Top||34-20||Win||100||119 h 31 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #256 Take Arizona Cardinals over Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Red Birds got backdoored on Monday Night Football last week settling for field goals and missing an extra point in the second half. That was a brutal beat for us but in a way it sets up this play. Arizona is loaded with talent on both sides of the football and they play an aggressive style of defense that will give the Browns fits for sixty minutes. The Browns will play better than they did against St. Louis but they have quarterback issues with Josh McCown questionable for this game and Johnny Manziel having some off the field issues. Cleveland is just 2-5 on the season and they have not played that great of a schedule as they have yet to play the Bengals or Steelers this season (two games left with each). Arizona is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a pointspread loss in their previous game. Arizona is also 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing home record. Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November.
|10-31-15||Virginia Tech -2 v. Boston College||Top||26-10||Win||100||94 h 3 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #193 Take Virginia Tech Hokies over Boston College Eagles (Saturday 12:30 pm ESPN 3) Both teams are coming off heartbreaking losses last week but Virginia Tech has a much better offense than does Boston College. QB Michael Brewer is back from injury and this will be his second start since returning and he should be even better in this game. Boston College has a strong defense but a terrible offense evident by the fact they had only 79 total yards last week and 4 first downs against Louisville. Their 14 points were the result of two short fields with a blocked punt and a fumble return. Boston College has major quarterback issues and they are completing just 43% of their passes and that includes games against Maine and Howard. Boston College is 1-3 ATS (1 push) in their 5 home games. If Virginia Tech can ovoid turnovers they should roll to a victory.
|10-25-15||Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Tennessee Titans||Top||10-7||Loss||-110||94 h 36 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #463 Take Atlanta Falcons over Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1 pm FOX) We went against the Titans last week and won easily with Miami and expect a similar results with a better Atlanta Falcons team. Tennessee has lost four straight games since opening the season with a victory against Tampa Bay. Of those four losses (Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami, & Indianapolis) they have suffered none of those teams have an explosive offense like Atlanta does. The Falcons were their own worst enemy last Thursday against New Orleans and I fully expect them to clean that up in this game. The Titans also have quarterback issues with Marcus Mariota questionable for this game. Not a huge drop-off to their back-up but it is a drop-off nonetheless. Atlanta has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games. Tennessee is 7-20 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 29 home games.
|10-24-15||Utah +3.5 v. USC||Top||24-42||Loss||-106||120 h 24 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #345 Take Utah Utes over USC Trojans (Saturday 7:30 pm FOX) Utah will put their undefeated record on the line tonight in Los Angeles taking on USC. The Trojans have an interim coach and they have already lost two games at the Coliseum this season. USC had some moments last week against Notre Dame but still suffered a double digit loss and I do not see them being able to turn things around tonight. USC has lost three of their last four games I believe Utah is a better team that Washington and Notre Dame. Utah has a very aggressive style of defense that will pose problems for Cody Kessler. Utah is very balanced on offense and getting points with the better team is just icing on the cake. Utah is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. USC is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record.
|10-18-15||Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Buffalo Bills||Top||34-21||Win||100||118 h 27 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #253 Take Cincinnati Bengals over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 pm CBS) This line has swung three points since it opened as a pick’em and it is apparent that the Bills are overvalued this season despite their talkative head coach. The Bills have already lost two home games this season and they are not ready to be among the elite of the AFC with Tyrod Taylor as quarterback. The Bengals are still a great team in the regular season and Andy Dalton is having a breakout season. He has numerous weapons to work with and should give the Bills defense all that they can handle. Cincinnati has covered 4 straight games against AFC teams. Buffalo is 7-20 ATS (1 push) in their last 28 games following a win in their previous game.
|10-11-15||Chicago Bears v. Kansas City Chiefs -9||Top||18-17||Loss||-110||118 h 39 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #460 Take Kansas City Chiefs over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm FOX) TOP NFL GAME OF THE WEEK. The Chiefs need a win in the worst way and we fully expect them to take out their frustration on Chicago this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. The Chiefs went 6-2 at home last season and outscored their opponents by 17 points per game during those six victories. The difference in this game will come down to the Chiefs defense, as they are still a dominating unit (despite the ranking) and should have no problem hitting the quarterback early and often. The Bears are not on the same level as Green Bay and Cincinnati and thus has double digit home victory written all over it. Chicago knows this is a rebuilding year and I just do not see them being able to win two games in a row. Chicago’s three losses have come by an average of 19.6 points and that will easily get us a cover with the favorite in this game. Chicago is 13-27 ATS (1 push) in their last 41 games. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record.
|10-10-15||San Jose State -2.5 v. UNLV||Top||33-27||Win||100||73 h 13 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #407 Take San Jose State Spartans over UNLV Rebels (Saturday 9 pm the MWC) The Rebels were lucky to escape last week against Nevada as they did nothing in the second half but got a key pick-six to hang on for the victory. I do not see them being as fortunate in this game against San Jose State. I am a real big fan of Spartan QB Joy Gray and he has held his own against some stiff competition including Auburn last week. San Jose State actually outgained Auburn last week and should be the same this week since Rebel starting quarterback Blake Decker is out again this time with a shoulder injury. It is important for San Jose State to stop the running game of UNLV and if they do that they should be victorious. The Spartans have a pair of big name coordinators in Greg Robinson and Al Borges and expect them to come up with a solid gameplan to defeat a coach that was at a high school one year ago. SJSU is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. UNLV has covered just 1 of their last 4 home games.
|10-04-15||Green Bay Packers v. San Francisco 49ers +9.5||Top||17-3||Loss||-120||123 h 46 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #270 Take San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) I always like to play home underdogs of seven or more points and I fully expect a much better effort by the 49ers today in Santa Clara. San Francisco has looked terrible in back to back road games but I am a big believer in that there is not much carryover from week to week in the NFL and every week is completely different. Green Bay is not the same team on the road as they are when playing at Lambeau Field and sooner or later their injuries will catch up with them. Green Bay will head west on a short week and this is a team they have not had any success against in the last 5 years. San Francisco is 3-0 ATS in the last six years when they have been a home underdog. QB Colin Kaepernick has been awful of late but Green Bay is a team he has had great success against and I expect him to be able to move the football with his arm or his legs. Green Bay still does not have a good defense and if the 49ers can hang onto the football I see this game going down to the wire. Green Bay has not won in San Francisco (Santa Clara) since 2006 and while that streak may end on Sunday, it will only come by a couple of points.
|10-03-15||Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -8||Top||34-36||Loss||-106||123 h 58 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #148 Take Oklahoma State Cowboys over Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday 4 pm FS1) We will come right back with the Cowboys in this game and feel they will be more relaxed than they were last week playing in Austin. We pushed with the Pokes in a game we should have won as the Longhorns offense was completely shut down in the second half. But key turnovers kept Texas in that game and we had to settle for a push. After a bad beat (push) I always like to use the same team against in the following week as things have a way of evening themselves out. The Wildcats have reverted back to Bill Snyder form in scheduling cupcakes during the nonconference portion of the season and they have not really looked that impressive in those games. They are coming off a bye but I do not believe they are ready for Big 12 play. They already share a common opponent in UTSA with the Pokes beating them by 55 points compared to a 27 point victory by the Wildcats. Oklahoma State also has revenge on their minds losing by 34 points last year in Manhattan but the home team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings. I am a big fan of DC Glenn Spencer and feel he will come up with a solid gameplan to stifle this questionable Wildcats offense. Oklahoma State takes better care of the football on Saturday and wins this game by double digits.
|09-27-15||Atlanta Falcons v. Dallas Cowboys +2||Top||39-28||Loss||-105||89 h 23 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #480 Take Dallas Cowboys over Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1 pm FOX) This is a surprise match-up of 2-0 teams with nobody expecting the Falcons to be any good this season. The Falcons will be playing their second straight road games and that generally catches up with teams in the NFL. Expect Dallas to rise to the occasion with all of their injuries in the short term and I just do not believe the Falcons are ready to become an elite team in the NFL again. Dallas still has a dominating offense line and that will be the difference in this contest.
|09-26-15||Colorado State v. Texas-San Antonio +9||Top||33-31||Win||100||71 h 22 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #384 Take UTSA Roadrunners over Colorado State Rams (Saturday 7 pm CBSSN) The MWC has been one of the most disappointing conferences this season and the Rams must travel on the road for the first time this season. Colorado State should not be laying this many points to anybody on the road. CSU is coming off an overtime loss to Colorado and I expect them to come into this game a little flat. The Roadrunners have played a brutal schedule to open the season and they sit at 0-3 but those losses came against Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Arizona. This is a fade play against the MWC.
|09-20-15||Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers -3||Top||17-27||Win||100||147 h 49 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #288 Take Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) We went against Seattle last week with St. Louis and will do the same this Sunday against the Packers. Seattle has a brutal schedule to open up the season with a pair of road games against teams that are motivated to beat them. Green Bay has waited a couple of years to host Seattle and you can expect revenge to be best served on the field. Green Bay dominated Seattle last year in the NFC Championship only to fall apart in the fourth quarter and be sent home a week before the big game. Seattle allowed Nick Foles to move the football on their defense and we only in that game because the Rams turned over the football. I just do not see Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers making that many mistakes. This is a game the fans of the Packers want in the worst way and they will pull away in the second half to win this game by double digits.
|09-13-15||Tennessee Titans +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Top||42-14||Win||100||99 h 26 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #481 Take Tennessee Titans over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) This is one of the marquee match-up of Week 1 despite two terrible teams doing battle. At this point of the season I trust Marcus Mariota more than I do Jameis Winston. The Titans have won their last two road openers the last two years beating Pittsburgh and Kansas City, two better teams than they will see today against Tampa Bay. Expect Dick LeBeau to improve the Titans defense just enough to frustrate the new quarterback and allow Tennessee to win this game straight-up.
|09-12-15||Arizona v. Nevada +11.5||Top||44-20||Loss||-110||140 h 22 m||Show|
10 Unit Play. #372 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over Arizona Wildcats (Saturday 7 pm CBSSN) Nonconference Game of the Year! We saw last week that many power five teams struggled to put away and cover the spread against mid-majors in true road games. Tonight we have a line that is way off the mark, as Arizona is not the team they were last year. These two teams have met twice in the last three years and both times Arizona was a big favorite but Nevada covered the game with relative ease. That included losing by just seven points last year in Tucson despite being a 19 point underdog. Arizona looked awful against UTSA last week and this is a Road Runner team that returned just 6 of 22 starters from a 4 win team last year. Arizona got two defensive touchdowns but gave up 29 first downs and 525 total yards to UTSA. Nevada always prides themselves on holding onto the football and winning the turnover battle and if they accomplish this they will take this game right down to the wire. Nevada’s game against UC-Davis was a little misleading, as they gave up two late meaningless scores to make the game closer than what it actually way. Nevada has a solid defense and despite breaking in a new quarterback should be able to move the football on this suspect Wildcat defense. Throw in the fact that Arizona will be without PAC-12 Defensive Player of the Year in Scooby Wright and that just means this line is way off the mark. Take the points and I truly believe Nevada has a great chance to win this game straight-up.