|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-20-19||Massachusetts v. George Washington +2||Top||67-79||Win||100||22 h 53 m||Show|
I’m playing on George Washington (10* BEST BET). Neither side instills much confidence. UMass is 9-16 and George Washington is 7-18. Both teams come in on horrible losing streaks. The Colonials have lost four straight, most recently to Duquesne, while the Minutemen are 2-11 in their last 13, suffering a heartbreaking OT loss to George Mason in their latest action. This has been a terrible matchup for UMass whenever its come to town though and I believe that trend carries over here. George Washington has won five straight in this series and it’s 22-9 all time at home vs. the Minutemen. UMass has lost eight straighten the road, averaging 62.8 points and conceding 70.6 in those contests. The Minutemen are also just 1-4 ATS in their last I’ve vs. teams with losing records. Add it all up, and I expect George Washington to find a way to get the job done. Play on the home side.
|02-19-19||St. Peter's +7.5 v. Siena||Top||62-72||Loss||-104||11 h 53 m||Show|
I’m playing on Saint Peters (10* BEST BET). Saint Peter’s closes out the regular season with two straight road games. Both will be tough and it’ll be the underdog in each. Including tonight vs. Siena. The Peacocks though won’t be lacking for motivation after dropping seven straight, most recently a 71-65 setback to Rider. The Peacocks have to be feeling confident here as well as they’d prevail 65-50 over the Saints at home in early January. Sienna is firmly in fifth spot (after being picked to finish 10th), but it comes in on terrible form, having dropped two straight at home. Saint Peters is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Siena is just 5-7 ATS at home and only 5-8 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, Peacocks roll.
|02-16-19||Washington v. Washington State +8.5||Top||72-70||Win||100||25 h 29 m||Show|
I’m playing on Washington State (10* REVENGE BEST OF BEST). UW destroyed WSU 85-67 in December, but that was then and this is now. The Cougars played without leading scorer Robert Franks in the first matchup this season, but he’s back in the line-up now (WSU lost all four games he missed in December.) Franks though comes in on top form and I think he’ll be an “X-factor” here as well in this revenge scenario. Ranks posted 34 points and 13 rebounds in a win over ASU last week, before then going off for 31 points and eight boards in a victory over Arizona. WSU lost both games to the Huskies last year as well, but Franks was a bright spot by averaging 19 points and 10.5 boards. UW on the other hand has been dealing with a flu bug, which led to mixed results last week. The Huskies have turned the ball over 52 times in their last three games, including 17 in their most recent setback to ASU. This one has “upset” written all over it, but I’m still going to grab the points. Grab the points, WSU rolls.
|02-16-19||Oilers +1.5 v. Islanders||Top||2-5||Loss||-160||26 h 36 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Edmonton Oilers PUCK LINE (10* PL GAME OF WEEK). I came up short with my play on the Oilers on the puck line last night, but Edmonton comes to Long Island as a desperate team and I believe it’ll keep this one close until the final moments. The Oilers are beyond hungry for a victory here after losing ten of their last 11. The Isles on the other hand get caught looking past their opponent after winning five of their last seven. New York also gets caught looking ahead to three whole nights off before going on a big West Coast Canadian road swing. I expect Edmonton to lay everything on the line here and to come away with a comfortable “cover” at the very least. Play on the Oilers puck line.
|02-15-19||Northern Kentucky +1 v. Wright State||Top||77-81||Loss||-115||25 h 28 m||Show|
I’m playing on Northern Kentucky (10* BEST BET). I like the 20-6 Northern Kentucky Norse to find a way to get the job done here vs. the 15-11 Wright Raiders on Friday night. UNK enters off a 79-64 home win over Oakland last time out, while Wright State also picked up a victory in its latest action, pulling away 83-60 over Detroit on Saturday. The Norse earned the tough 68-64 win in the first matchup between the schools at home back on January 11th and I expect a similar result here as well. This is an important game, as the Norse are in No. 1 in the Horizon League at 10-3, while Wright State is directly behind. But while the Raiders have been on a decent run over the last month, their numbers do match up well against the Norse. As we come down the stretch, I think UNK’s depth will prove to be the difference. Northern Kentucky averages 79.6 PPG an fit allows 67.3. Wright State averages 73.3 PPG and it allows 68.4. I like Northern Kentucky to continue its dominance in this series. Norse roll.
|02-14-19||Northern Colorado v. Idaho +11||Top||75-47||Loss||-110||30 h 46 m||Show|
I’m playing on Idaho (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). After back-to-back wins and victories in five of its last six, I think that Northern Colorado stumbles here. Well, has enough of a letdown anyways for the hungry home side to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. The Bears most recently held on for a 65-59 win over Sacramento State. On the season the Bears average 77.3 PPG. The Vandals only average 68.8, but after losing nine in a row, we definitely don’t have to question Idaho’s focus this evening. This is way too many points to be giving up, as Idaho just took Northern Colorado to OT in a loss just last month. The Vandals play with revenge and they’re desperate for a victory of any sorts. Northern Colorado runs out of gas on Thursday and the home side keeps it much closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points, Vandals roll.
|02-14-19||Thunder v. Pelicans +3.5||Top||122-131||Win||100||28 h 56 m||Show|
I’m playing on the New Orleans Pelicans (10* GAME OF THE MONTH). OKC enters off a 120-111 home win over Portland, while New Orleans comes in off a humbling 118-88 loss at home to Orlando. This is a revenge game of sort for the Pelicans as well, as the Thunder have taken two of three in the season series, including the latest matchup 122-116 back on January 24th. The Thunder come in on top form having won four straight, but with the All Star game up next and with Paul George and Russell Westbrook both headed to the festivities, I think the visitors get caught “looking ahead” to the much needed time off. The Pelicans of course are in a period of transition with star Anthony Davis having already decided to leave the team after the season is done. Davis had just 3 points in his team’s loss last time out, but I expect the big man to bounce back and play like a professional here. The 3 points were the fewest points he’s put up in his career (when playing a minimum of 21 minutes) and I believe he’ll take that personally. I expect the visitors to “check out” of this one early and for the home side to play with some determination after getting “shellacked” so badly last time out. Grab the points, Pelicans roll.
|02-13-19||Kings v. Nuggets -7.5||Top||118-120||Loss||-110||27 h 52 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Denver Nuggets (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE) How motivated are these teams to win their final game before the All Star break? In my opinion, I think this one mean a lot “more” to the home side. The Kings have been playing great of late having won five of their last six. But would anyone fault Sacramento for finally having a letdown here before the break? The Nuggets though are in a fight still for top spot in the West and I can’t see them taking the foot off the gas quite yet after winning seven of their last ten. Sacramento is also just 2-8 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 4-10 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with winning records. I think the home side keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, Nuggets roll.
|02-13-19||South Florida v. UCF -6.5||Top||65-78||Win||100||25 h 46 m||Show|
I’m playing on UCF (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE) Clearly this is a big game. UCF sits a half game ahead of USF in the AAC standings. In a contest like this, I think that the “home floor” advantage is going to be significant. USF almost got caught “looking ahead” to this one, as it needed OT to get past lowly ECU 72-68 at home last time out. The Bulls were sloppy, turning the ball over 20 times and I think they’re going to struggle in this difficult arena as well. UCF downed SMU 71-65 on the road in its latest action. The Knights have to be feeling supremely confident that they can keep the momentum rolling as well as they’ve covered four straight at home in this series. Lay the points, UCF rolls.
|02-12-19||Pittsburgh v. Boston College -2.5||Top||57-66||Win||100||25 h 51 m||Show|
I’m playing on Boston College (10* SPECIAL) BC will be desperate to avoid another loss here and drop down in the cellar of the ACC. A date vs. the hapless Panthers is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as Pittsburgh comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. The Panthers weakness this year? Clearly it’s been their play on the road, as they enter having lost five straight conference road games. Pittsburgh has injury issues to deal with as well, as starting forward Malik Ellison is expected to be out for a second straight game with an injury. After a 67-57 loss to the Orange, BC looks to bounce back at home. The Eagles have responded well in this spot as well, going 4-1 ATS in their last five after two or more consecutive road losses. The Panthers on the other hand are a miserable 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road dog of six points or less or pick. Look for home floor to play a big role in the final outcome. Lay the points, Eagles roll.
|02-11-19||Kansas +2 v. TCU||Top||82-77||Win||100||27 h 44 m||Show|
I’m playing on Kansas (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, Kansas has issues. It’s playing through injuries and it’s lost four of its last seven, but it got back on track with a win at home over OKS on Saturday and I believe the storied program can carry that momentum over here vs. a complacent TCU side which has won straight over OKS and Iowa State. Here’s Kansas coach Bill Self on tonight’s game: “We did not have any [energy] in Manhattan (against Kansas State),” Self assessed. “We have to go down there (to TCU) with a purpose and a focus. People talk about running plays and all that. It doesn’t matter what you run as long as you have energy and passion. It’s contagious. I think we have some guys out there we can feed off of.”
TCU’s been playing a lot better of late, but you’d think that the way the team reacted after its first road win vs. a ranked team in 21 years last time out that they’d actually won the National Championship. After that emotional win, I think an immediate letdown is imminent here.
Clearly the outright isn’t out of the question, but in a game which I foresee coming down to whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
|02-11-19||Nets +10.5 v. Raptors||Top||125-127||Win||100||25 h 12 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Nets (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). Outright upset? Probably not. But I do think that the sliding Nets will be playing with extreme determination tonight. Brooklyn comes to town focused after a humbling 125-106 home loss to the Bulls on Friday, while Toronto enters off a more difficult than expected 104-99 road win over the Knicks. These teams have split two games so far this year. But after dropping five of their last six, I think that the Nets are clearly the more desperate team in this matchup, as the Raptors enter having won four straight. Additionally note that the Nets are a near-perfect 6-1 ATS this season when playing with two days rest, while the Raptors are just 13-14 ATS at home and just 2-10 ATS after covering three of its last four vs. the spread. Grab the points, Nets roll.
|02-10-19||East Carolina +14 v. South Florida||Top||68-72||Win||100||22 h 29 m||Show|
I’m playing on East Carolina (10* BEST BET) Would anyone fault the Bulls for looking past their lowly opponent today? While I’m stopping short in calling for the outright, I do think that the Bulls, who enter having won four straight, will come into this one a bit complacent. The Pirates won’t be lacking for motivation today that’s for sure as they’ve lost two in a row and 13 of their first 22. Not surprisingly the Pirates play with revenge here after falling 77-57 at home earlier in the year. But with a game at UCF up next for USF, the team sitting just one spot ahead of it in the standings, I think the home side not only comes out complacent, but it also gets caught looking ahead. It’s a perfect storm of situational factors working in favor of the visitors today. Grab the points, ECU rolls.
|02-10-19||Lakers +7 v. 76ers||Top||120-143||Loss||-100||21 h 41 m||Show|
I’m playing on the LA Lakers (10* BEST BET) Clearly the outright win isn’t out of the question here, but in what I expect to be a very competitive battle, I’m going to grab the points. The Lakers come off perhaps a season defining 129-128 road win in Boston on Thursday and I think they carry that momentum over here. The 76ers come in off a 117-110 home win over Denver. The Lakers play with revenge here though after Philadelphia won 121-105 in LA back on January 29th. The Lakers finally have LBJ back at 100% health and he posted a triple-double in the win over the C’s. While the 76ers are firmly entrenched as one of the top teams in the East, the Lakers can ill afford to take the foot off the gas right now as they’re still 1.5 games back of the Clippers for the final playoff spot. This one simply means more to James and company and I believe that fact will be the difference maker here. Additionally note LA is 9-5 ATS this season as a road dog, while the 76ers are only 19-20 ATS as the favorite this year. Grab the points, Lakers roll.
|02-09-19||Hornets v. Hawks +2.5||Top||129-120||Loss||-100||25 h 37 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Hawks (10* BEST BET) Clearly the outright win isn’t out of the question here, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points. The Hornets come in off a 99-93 road loss in Dallas, while Atlanta fell 119-101 to Toronto in its most recent action. This is a revenge game for the Hawks, as Charlotte has taken two of three in the season series this year, including a 108-94 win at home in the most recent on November 28th. Both teams comes in hungry, but I think that the home floor will be the difference for this improving Hawks team. And note as well that Charlotte is only 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while ATL is 6-1 ATS in its last seven off a home loss of ten points or more. Grab the points, Hawks roll.
|02-09-19||Minnesota v. Michigan State -13||Top||55-79||Win||100||19 h 0 m||Show|
I’m playing on Michigan State (10* MAIN EVENT). Enough is enough! After three straight losses, I’m expecting the home side to lay the hammer down from start to finish here. After starting the Big 10 season at 9-0, the Spartans are now 9-3 after a shocking setback to Illinois earlier in the week. Despite the losing streak though, MSU remains one of the top teams in the nation on paper and I simply have a hard time seeing the Golden Gophers keeping pace. The Spartans average 119.6 points per 100 possessions and they allow only 98.6 points per 100 possessions. The Gophers come in having dropped two straight themselves. Minnesota averages 110.2 points per 100 possessions and it allows 97.5. MSU has done well in this spot for bettors as well, going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 (the Gophers on the other hand are still only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 on the road!) Lay the the points, Spartans roll.
|02-08-19||Bulls +8.5 v. Nets||Top||125-106||Win||100||24 h 6 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls (10* VIOLATOR) The Bulls came up short in their 125-120 home loss to New Orleans last time out, but I think they can come in under the radar here and keep this one competitive vs. the complacent Nets, who pulled away for a satisfying 135-130 home victory over the Nuggets. Chicago plays with revenge as well. In fact the Bulls have lost six straight in this series, including a 122-117 road loss on January 29th. Note that Chicago did make a good pick up at the trade deadline, moving Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker to Washington for Otto Porter Jr. The Nets are comfortably in eighth spot in the East, but note that they’re just 2-5 ATS in their last seven after allowing 130 points or more. Chicago on the other hand has responded well in this spot, going 9-4 ATS in its last 13 after a loss by six points or less. I think the hungrier team keeps this one competitive late. Grab the points, Bulls roll.
|02-08-19||St. Louis v. St. Joe's +3||Top||61-91||Win||100||24 h 30 m||Show|
I’m playing on St. Joseph’s (10* BEST BET) This is a revenge game for the Hawks after they feel 68-57 on the road in the first matchup this season. St. Louis enters off a satisfying 73-60 home win over Dayton, while St. Joe’s comes in hungry after its 89-63 loss to La Salle on the road. The Hawks are 0-5 on the road in league play, but there was a silver lining behind their latest loss as they’d go on to hit a season-high 14 threes. The Hawks are out for revenge and they’re desperate for a victory. Note as well that Saint Louis is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year and only 5-11 ATS when playing the role of favorite, while St. Joe’s is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog of six points or less or pick. I think a little “home cooking” is just what St. Joe’s needs here in this situation. Grab the points.
|02-07-19||Grizzlies v. Thunder -14||Top||95-117||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
I’m playing on the OKC Thunder (10* PERS FAV). I’m expecting a massive blowout here. The Grizz come to town off a highly satisfying 108-106 home win over the Wolves, while OKC pulled away for a 132-122 home win over Orlando on Tuesday. These teams haven’t played yet this year, but OKC has won seven straight in the series. The Grizz may have beaten bottom feeders New York and Memphis, but their achilles heels has been their play on the road where they’re just 11-16-1 ATS. The Grizz average only 100.4 PPG, while allowing 103.4. OKC is 14-11 ATS at home and it averages 115.2 PPG, while allowing 110. Memphis is still working on trying to trade Mike Conley and Marc Gasol and I believe it’s in well over its head here facing Russell Westbrook on his home floor, as he enters having posted seven straight triple-doubles. This line could/should be higher. Lay the points, Thunder roll.
|02-07-19||Arkansas-Little Rock v. Troy State -5.5||Top||84-70||Loss||-110||26 h 36 m||Show|
I’m playing on Troy (10* PERS FAV) Arkansas Little Rock is in last place in the Sun Belt Conference. Arkansas Little Rock did beat Troy and Alabama earlier in the season, but it comes in having lost five straight. The Trojans come in having lost three straight (all on the road), but they’ll be eager for revenge and to bounce back in familiar surroundings. The Trojans struggled defensively in their latest setback to South Alabama, but they were very efficient offensively, shooting 56.6 percent from the floor and 52.6 percent from range. Facing putrid Arkansas Little Rock, I like the Trojans to carry that offensive momentum over here as well (Little Rock averages 74.8 PPG and Troy averages 77.0). I think Arkansas Little Rock’s road issues continue. Lay the points, Troy rolls.
|02-06-19||Pelicans v. Bulls||Top||125-120||Loss||-115||27 h 21 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls (10* VIOLATOR) I think the Bulls get the job done on their home floor. The Pelicans played bravely without Anthony Davis in the line-up on Monday vs. the Pacers, but they came up short in the 109-107 setback. The Bulls enter off a 125-118 road loss in Charlotte, but they play with “triple revenge” here after losing three straight in the series, including the first one this season 107-98 on the road on November 7th. The Pelicans have now lost three straight and six of their last seven. New Orleans is just 13-15-1 ATS on the road. Chicago is only 10-15 ATS at home this year, but they’re a red hot 11-4 ATS in their last 15 when playing with three or more days rest. The Pelicans in contrast are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest. The stage is set for a home side blowout. Bulls roll.
|02-06-19||Baylor +3 v. Texas||Top||72-84||Loss||-115||27 h 15 m||Show|
I’m playing on Baylor (10* MAIN EVENT) I like the 15-6 Baylor Bears to score the slight upset on the road (that said, I’m still grabbing the points!) Baylor is 6-2 in the Big 12 and it comes in on top form. The Bears have won six straight overall and six straight in this series. The Longhorns on the other hand have lost three of four, including most recently at Iowa State 65-60 on Saturday. Baylor’s rolling, but it’s still not ranked. The Bears smashed TCU 90-65 at home most recently and I look for them to carry that momentum over here. The Longhorns are only 4-5 in league play and they’re only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 at home. Baylor on the other hand is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. the conference and 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road. Grab the points, Baylor rolls.
|02-05-19||Celtics -12 v. Cavs||Top||103-96||Loss||-105||27 h 34 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Boston CELTICS (10* GAME OF WEEK) Kyrie Irving won’t be in the line-up when Boston Celtics travel to Cleveland to take on the rebuilding Cavaliers on Tuesday, but I don’t think it’ll hardly matter. Cleveland of course is still playing without Kevin Love, it also recently traded Rodney Hood to Portland for future draft picks. Cleveland has two nights off before a game in the Nation’s capital on Friday night, so a possible “look ahead” isn’t out of the question for the home side either. Boston has won four straight, but I don’t think it’ll be taking anything for granted here with much more difficult upcoming games vs. the Lakers, Clippers and 76ers. Additionally note that Boston is 12-5 ATS already this year after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games, while the Cavs are only 9-13 ATS as a home underdog this season. Lay the points, Celtics roll.
|02-05-19||Bowling Green v. Western Michigan +4.5||Top||85-72||Loss||-105||26 h 28 m||Show|
I’m playing on Western Michigan (10* VIOLATOR) I think the “hungrier” home side keeps this one close late. WMU is 6-15 overall and it’s going to be eager to snap an eight-game slide. Would anyone fault the 15-6 Bowling Green Falcons for coming in a tiny bit complacent here? They’re 11-1 in their last 12 and they enter off their biggest win of the campaign at home over Buffalo last Friday. It is considered by most as being the programs biggest victory in over a decade. This is a revenge game as well for the Broncos after they were whipped 79-48 at the Stroh Center on January 19th. WMU is desperate for a league victory and I think the conditions are finally right for that scenario to happen. That said, in a game which I envision coming down to the final moments, let’s grab the points.
|02-04-19||Hawks v. Wizards -6||Top||137-129||Loss||-105||28 h 37 m||Show|
10* play on the Washington Wizards. I think the Hawks will stumble in the Nation’s capital tonight. The Hawks come in off a highly satisfying 118-112 win over Phoenix on Saturday, while the Wizards enter off a humbling 131-115 loss at home to Milwaukee. If recent history is anything to go by though, then the Wizards have to be loving their chances for a bounce back performance tonight as they’ve already taken two of three in this season series, including a convincing 114-98 home win in the most recent matchup at the beginning of the year. Atlanta is already 3-3 on this seven game road trip, a record which it couldn’t have dreamed of obtaining before the trek started. I think the visitors come in very complacent here as they look ahead to time off and a long home stretch. The Wizards are still only 2.5 games back of Miami for a playoff spot and after getting trounced by the Bucks last time out, I believe they come in focused and take advantage of this spot. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a double-digit loss at home, while the Hawks 0-5 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Lay the points, Washington rolls.
|02-04-19||Fairfield v. Siena -5||Top||50-61||Win||100||28 h 32 m||Show|
10* play on Siena (10* PERS FAV) I think Fairfield stumbles on the road here. The Stags have been alternating wins/losses over their last four games, including holding on for a 57-52 victory over Marist in their most recent. Fairfield averages 69.4 PPG, while Siena averages 63.2. The Saints though make it up on the other end of the court and they enter on top form having won five of their last seven. The Saints have had the Stags “number” in this matchup of late, going 4-1 ATS the last five in the series. The Stags are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five on the road. I think home floor is big for Siena as I look for the Saints to continue their dominance in this match-up. Lay the points, Siena rolls.
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||Top||13-3||Loss||-115||200 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* GAME OF YEAR). Admittedly, the Rams are fortunate to be here. That doesn't mean that they're not the better team though. Much has changed since Brady and Goff met two years ago, a 26-10 win for the Patriots. Both QBs have gotten older, a good thing for Goff's development but not necessarily for Brady. Goff had Gurley back then. However, he also had Jeff Fisher (tied for most reg. season losses in NFL history) coaching him and nearly everything else has changed, too. The Rams are stronger across the board then they were. The same cannot necessarily be said of the Pats. The Rams averaged 32.4 ppg this season, the Pats averaged 28.6. While not many will make mention of it, I believe that the environment (stadium) helps LA and I like that the Rams are coming off a game in New Orleans as compared to the Patriots coming off a very cold game at Arrowhead. The Aaron Donald factor on defense needs to be mentioned; he can and does change games. It also needs to be noted that the Rams were a perfect 4-0 against the AFC this season, including wins against the Chiefs and Chargers, the two teams that N.E. beat to get here. Look for the Rams to prove to be the better team Sunday.
|02-03-19||East Carolina v. Connecticut -13||Top||52-76||Win||100||21 h 31 m||Show|
10* PERS FAV on Connecticut. I’m expecting a decisive victory today for the 12-9 UConn Huskies over the 9-12 ECU Pirates. The Pirates have yet to win on the road in conference action and I think they’ll have a difficult time again here. Since joining the ACC, East Carolina hasn’t won more than six league games and it’s 7-33 on the road in conference play overall. And after holding on for 66-65 win over Tulane on Thursday, an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent in my opinion (note the Pirates are 0-7 on the road this year, shooting a putrid 18.9 percent from range and 37.3 percent overall, while also getting outscored by 18.5 points in the process!) UConn is 6-1 in this matchup. The Huskies are 11-2 at home, averaging 82.2 PPG and outscoring their opposition by 16.0 PPG in those contests. This one screams blowout. Lay the point, because UConn rolls.
|02-02-19||Hawks v. Suns -2||Top||118-112||Loss||-115||29 h 44 m||Show|
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Phoenix Suns. It’s been a miserable season for Phoenix, it comes in at 11-42 overall and on a nine games overall losing streak. No excuses for the Suns here though as they’ll look to take advantage of the 16-34 Hawks. ATL is just 8-21 on the road and it’s in action on Friday night in Utah as well. And with one night off before a divisional contest in the nation’s capital on Monday, it also sets up as a trap/look-ahead for the visitors. Phoenix is all about earning that No. 1 pick in the lottery next year, but it’s going to win a few more games this season. And this is one of them. Lay the points, Suns finally roll to a convincing victory in front of the home town crowd.
|02-02-19||North Texas -7 v. Charlotte||Top||73-66||Push||0||23 h 2 m||Show|
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on North Texas. I think this spread could/should be a lot larger. UNT is 18-4, but it won’t be taking anything for granted here as it looks to move back on top of the conference. The Mean Green most recently fell 72-61 to ODU this past Thursday to drop to second in the standings. A game vs. lowly Charlotte is just what the doctor ordered to snap the slide. The 49ers are terrible, 5-16 overall and just 2-8 in Conference play, including a 65-61 loss to Rice last time out. UNT though has been money in the bank for bettors in this spot, going 7-1 ATS in its last eight after scoring 62 points or less in a conference loss in its previous outing. I’m laying the points and expect the Mean Green to roll!
|02-01-19||Hawks v. Jazz -11.5||Top||112-128||Win||100||29 h 32 m||Show|
I’m playing on the JAZZ (10* PERS FAV) The Hawks have for the most part struggled this year, especially on the road. Most recently they got smoked 135-113 in Sacramento on Wednesday. Utah enters off a poor effort as well, falling 132-105 on the road in Portland on Wednesday, but I think the Jazz can bounce back in big fashion in friendly confines. These teams played twice last year and the Hawks somehow inexplicably took both. Atlanta averages 110.2 points and it allows 117.9. The Jazz on the other hand average 108.6 PPG and they allow 105.7. Utah is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 following a SU loss as well. Lay the points, Jazz roll.
|02-01-19||Davidson -2 v. St Bonaventure||Top||75-66||Win||100||26 h 25 m||Show|
I’m playing on DAVIDSON (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE) After three straight wins, I look fro Davidson to continue that progression and to find a way to get the job done vs. the Bonnies, who have two in a row. Davidson is 15-5 overall and 6-1 in A-10 action, most recently holding on for a 54-53 win at Saint Louis. Last season Davidson outlasted St. Bonaventure in a thrilling triple OT contest, but I’m expecting a much more decisive victory tonight. The Bonnies feature plenty of talent, but they still feature three freshman in the starting lineup, making it the only team in the conference to have that many. St. Bonaventure is also just 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning records. Look for Davidson’s depth and experience to prove to be too much for the Bonnies once again.
|01-31-19||Mavs v. Pistons -2.5||Top||89-93||Win||100||24 h 9 m||Show|
Dallas has admittedly looked a lot better this year than last (10* END OF MONTH BLOWOUT). It’s been competitive thanks in large part to the play of dynamic rookie Luca Doncic. The Mavs though had the foot on the gas from the opening tip until the final horn in their 114-90 win over the Knicks in New York just last night and I think they’ll be tired coming to the Motor City. Detroit’s hungry to avoid a three-game slide. It’s also out to avenge a loss to Dallas just last week. Previous to their win over the Knicks that Mavs had lost four of six and overall the road hasn’t been kind to Dallas. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS the last five in this series and that strong trend carries over. Lay the points, Pistons roll.
|01-29-19||Ohio State +9 v. Michigan||Top||49-65||Loss||-109||11 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on OHIO STATE (10* BEST BET). Off an upset win at Nebraska, losing streak now in the rear view mirror, I expect the Buckeyes to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Note that they're a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS) the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit upset (SU win as an underdog) win. During the same span, they're 4-0 ATS, after having dropped five of their previous six games. The Wolverines are tough but not unbeatable. They were laying -12.5 points for their last home game and won by only two. Expect them to have their hands full, once again. Grab the points.
|01-29-19||Bucks v. Pistons +6.5||Top||115-105||Loss||-100||12 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pistons are going to be motivated to avoid the season sweep. I believe that they're catching the Bucks at the right time. Milwaukee had been hot but got cooled off its last game. Though the Bucks have been tough off a road loss, they've got a revenge game against Toronto on deck and I feel it may be easy to look past Detroit. That's going to prove costly though as the Pistons have Drummond back now and he's got a game under his belt. That makes them a far stronger team, as the combination of Griffin and Drummond is formidable. The Pistons are back home, after three straight on the road. While they're 4-4 SU their last eight overall, three of the four losses came by six or less. They're 16-7-1 ATS their last 24, off three straight on the road and 3-0 ATS their last three when listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range. Expect a big effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover this evening.
|01-28-19||Warriors v. Pacers +8.5||Top||132-100||Loss||-110||25 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on INDIANA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Warriors have been on an impressive run. They're at the end of a 5-game road trip here though; off their big win at Boston and with big home games against the likes of Philadelphia, LA and San Antonio on deck, it should be easy to suffer a slight letdown against an Indiana team missing Oladipo. That'll prove costly though as the Pacers are still capable and still playing hard. They're especially tough to beat here at Indiana. Indeed, they're 12-2 here since the start of December, 3-0 their last three. Their 18-6 home record is actually better than the Warriors' 17-8 road mark. With the Pacers, who beat the Warriors both meetings last season, at 17-5 ATS the last 22 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range, I'm grabbing the points.
|01-28-19||Duke v. Notre Dame +14||Top||83-61||Loss||-105||25 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME (10* MAIN EVENT). Needless to say, Duke has some impressive players. That said, I feel that the Blue Devils are laying too many points here. Duke's last five games have been decided by an average of seven points, none of those by more than 15. The Irish, 14-7-1 ATS the last 22 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 150s, got blown out by Virginia last time out. That was their first loss by more than 15 all season though and they're going to be highly motivated to avoid a repeat performance. It hasn't happened often over the years but, if we go back we find that the Irish are 2-0 ATS when off a home loss of 20 or more. Expect them to improve on those stats with their best effort this evening.
|01-27-19||Florida State v. Miami-FL +4||Top||78-66||Loss||-110||8 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). The Seminoles have shown no reason to believe that they can cover as road favorites. In fact, they're 0-10-1 ATS the last 11 times that they were road favorites, or pick'em. Thats ugly. That includes an 0-6-1 ATS mark as road favorites of six or less, five of those resulting in outright losses. The Hurricanes hung tough at Tallahassee a couple of weeks ago, losing by six as 10-point underdogs. They're 10-3 ATS (12-1 SU!) the last 13 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. They're also 6-2 SU/ATS the last eight times that they were off b2b conference losses, 2-0 ATS this season. Expect them to bounce back with a big effort en route to AT LEAST the cover.
|01-26-19||76ers v. Nuggets -8.5||Top||110-126||Win||100||13 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* GAME OF MONTH). I successfully played against the Nuggets recently. However, that was at Utah. Now, they're playing at home, where they've been nearly unbeatable. They already bounced back from the Utah loss by returning home and crusing the Suns by 37 points last night. Note that the Nuggets are 6-1 SU, when playing the second of b2b game and that last night's game was not exactly taxing. The Nuggets are now 21-4 here, 17-8 against the number. Thats the best home record in the West. The 76'ers, meanwhile, are 11-12 on the road. They've had Embid for most of those games, too. He's out tonight though. Needless to say, thats a big loss. Making matters worse, Butler saw a specialist for his wrist in LA yesterday and is considered doubtful, as I write this. The 76ers swept the Nuggets last season. Catching them short-handed, expect the Nuggets to get some payback with a double-digit win tonight.
|01-26-19||Auburn v. Mississippi State||Top||84-92||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The SEC is deep and full of talented teams. These two are among them. Auburn has beaten the Bulldogs each of the past two seasons. While this season's Tigers are another solid team, I expect an experienced MSU team, playing on its home floor, to rise to the occasion and get some payback. Auburn is mediocre on the road. The Bulldogs are 10-1 on this floor, 29-5 the past few seasons. They brought more back from last year than did Auburn and I expect that to be evident here. Homecourt proves the difference.
|01-25-19||Wizards v. Magic -4||Top||95-91||Loss||-105||11 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on ORLANDO (3* VIOLATOR). The Wizards eked out a cover against the Warriors last night, losing by eight as a 9-point dog. After hosting the champs, don't be surprised when they experience a letdown, for a road game against the Magic the next night. While the Wizards were fighting hard, the Magic had yesterday off. The home team has already taken both meetings, the Magic winning by nine here at Orlando. (The Magic also won the previous game here, last spring, by nine.) While the Magic are 3-4 their last seven, they've been competitive in all four of the losses and they scored a minimum of 105 points in all seven of those games. Schedule in their favor, expect them to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off five or more consecutive games where they scored 105 or more points.
|01-24-19||Green Bay v. Northern Kentucky -9||Top||65-87||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on NORTHERN KENTUCKY (10* VIOLATOR). The Norse won both meetings last year. For the game here, they were laying -16.5 points. This season, with the line having come from its opener adding to the value, we're getting them at a considerably lower number. The Norse are undefeated at home this season and they're coming in hot. This season's 11-0 record brings them to 35-4 on this floor the past 2+ years. The Norse are going to be put up a big number tonight. They've scored 73 or more in six or their last seven, 91 and 82 their last two games. Note that they're 9-3-1 ATS (10-3 SU) the past 13 times that they were off b2b games where they scored 80 or more. The Phoenix have allowed 76 or more points in 10 straight games, 80 or more in all but one of those. For the season, they allow an obscene 87.6 ppg on the road. The defensively-challenged Phoenix have played two road games in 2019. Both resulted in double-digit losses. Expect more of the same here.
|01-23-19||Nuggets v. Jazz -3||Top||108-114||Win||100||30 h 19 m||Show|
I'm playing on UTAH (10* MAIN EVENT). Homecourt always means a lot to both of these teams and it always means a lot when they face each other. Including a 103-88 win on Nov. 3rd, the Nuggets are a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they hosted the Jazz. Conversely, with a 106-77 destruction a few weeks later, on 11/28, the Jazz are a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that the hosted the Nuggets. All seven wins came by a minimum of four points. This season, the Nuggets are a dominating 20-4 at home but a modest 11-10 on the road. The Jazz are 13-13 on the road but 13-9 at home. Utah arguably needs this game more. Expect a huge effort from the Jazz and homecourt again ultimately proving the difference.
|01-23-19||Purdue v. Ohio State +1.5||Top||79-67||Loss||-105||10 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. Winless in 2019, the Buckeyes badly need this one. I expect them to rise to the occasion and get it. Note that the Buckeyes are 3-1 ATS the past four times that they were listed as home underdogs, or pick'em. Lets not forget that they're 37-11 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. As of this writing, most books have the O/U line at 140.5. I mention that as Purdue is just 6-16 ATS (5-17 SU!) the past 22 times it played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range, 1-4 ATS their last five in that situation. Last season's games were both decided by a single point, each time winning once. Over recent years, the Buckeyes have dominated the Boilermakers though, particularly here in Columbus. This one may well come down to the wire, too. In the end, look for the Buckeyes to be the team which emerges victorious.
|01-22-19||Wolves -5 v. Suns||Top||118-91||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Suns gave the T-Wolves all they could handle a couple of days ago, at Minnesota. The Wolves still won though and now we're getting them at a far lower line, due to the venue. However, with a 7-17 record here, homecourt doesn't mean much to the Suns though. The Wolves are still fighting for a playoff spot while the Suns are destined for the lottery. They're expected to be without Ayton (currently doubtful) here, made worse by the possible (likely?) absence of Richaun Homels, which is going to mean Towns is destined for a field day. Expect an inspired effort from the Wolves, as they improve to 7-1 ATS, after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their previous six games.
|01-22-19||Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan -2||Top||80-67||Loss||-106||10 h 51 m||Show|
'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN (10* VIOLATOR). Bowling Green comes in on an impressive winning streak. However, I believe that Eastern Michigan opened as the favorite for good reason and I expect the Falcons' run to come to an end here. After losing a pair of OT games against the Falcons last season, the Eagles have had this one circled. This is an experienced team which brought back most of last year's players; they haven't forgotten. Keep in mind that many picked the Eagles to finish near the top of the MAC West and the Falcons to finish in, or near, the basement of the East. The Eagles won their last game on this floor by a score of 95-61. Expect another win and cover tonight.
|01-21-19||Warriors -11 v. Lakers||Top||130-111||Win||100||15 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs have a score to settle. You may recall that the Lakers embarrassed them on National TV on Christmas Day, at Oracle. Payback is indeed in order. While the Warriors, who now have Cousins in the lineup, are healthy, the Lakers are still without Lebron. The Lakers may still be feeling the effects off a tough 4-point OT loss at Houston, on Saturday. Meanwhile, off seven straight wins, the Warriors come in with plenty of momentum. Expect them to be all business here, avenging the earlier loss in blowout fashion.
|01-21-19||Virginia Tech +4 v. North Carolina||Top||82-103||Loss||-105||10 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on VT (10* BEST BET). While the Hokies came up short against Virginia, tonight represents another opportunity for a marquee ACC victory. I expect them to make the most of it. Coach Buzz William had this to say: "In a demented way, when you get your brain beat in, it kind of re-centers you or calibrates you. And then to have a chance to go right back and do it again ... " The Heels are going to want to play at a face pace and thats going to open up plenty of looks for Tech's dangerous outside shooters. The Hokies already bounced back from the Virginia loss by beating up on Wake Forest Saturday. They've been money (10-1 ATS the L11!) when playing with one or less day's rest and I expect a highly motivated effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover this evening.
|01-20-19||Suns v. Wolves -10||Top||114-116||Loss||-113||25 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played against the Suns yesterday and this is an excellent spot to go against them once again. While the Suns were busy getting blown out at Charlotte, the Wolves had yesterday off. They're going to be in an angry mood, too. Not only did they lose by eight at Phoenix last month but they're off b2b losses, a blowout loss followed by a close one. The Wolves are 2-0 SU/ATS when off a home loss off three or less, 7-4 ATS their last 11 in that situation. They're also 6-2 ATS after failing to cover in two or more consecutive games. These same two teams will face each other, at Phoenix, in two days. Knowing this to be the case, expect the rested, revenge-minded T-Wolves to take care of business in decisive fashion.
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs -3||Top||37-31||Loss||-100||157 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). Playing at home, the Patriots managed a 43-40 win when these teams met in the shootout. On a chilly Sunday at Arrowhead, I expect the Chiefs to have their revenge. They're saying this will likely be the coldest playoff game ever played here. I expect that to benefit the hard-hitting home team. We know about Mahomes and the offense; the Chiefs 35.1 ppg was #1 in the NFL. (New England ranked 4th at 28.1 ppg.) However, I also really liked what I saw from the Chiefs' defense last week, as they absolutely dominated Luck and the Colts. The Pats were 0-3 SU/ATS on the road this season, when the O/U line was 49.5 or greater. The Chiefs, 4-2 ATS as home favorites of -3 or less, got the playoff monkey off their backs last week. Demons exorcised, expect them to ride the positive momentum right into the Super Bowl.
|01-20-19||Rams v. Saints -3||Top||26-23||Loss||-124||153 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. Obviously, these are both excellent teams. That said, playing at home, where they already defeated these same Rams by 10, I expect the Saints to have the edge. Brees may be getting older but he's only gotten better the past couple of seasons. He's been here before. He doesn't get phased. He knows another Super Bowl on his resume puts him in the discussion with the all-time best. Brees is backed by a strong 2-headed ground attack and he's throwing to the best receiver in Saints history. Brees also has an aggressive coach who knows how to win. Indeed, the Brees/Payton doesn't lose home playoff games. Period. The Saints are 6-0 here in playoff games with the combination of Payton/Brees running the show. Michael Thomas had this to say of Payton: "When Coach pushes his chips all in, we've got to push our chips all in right with him, and that’s how you win games." Saints wideout Michael Thomas said. I really like the way the Saints rallied last week and feel thats the type of win that can and will provide them with positive momentum and propel them to the Super Bowl. Saints advance, covering the small number along the way.
BONUS FIRST HALF PLAY: I'm playing NEW ORLEANS on the money-line for the first half (8*). Obviously, these are both excellent teams. That said, playing at home, where they already defeated these same Rams by 10, I expect the Saints to have the edge. Brees may be getting older but he's only gotten better the past couple of seasons. He's been here before. He doesn't get phased. He knows another Super Bowl on his resume puts him in the discussion with the all-time best. Brees is backed by a strong 2-headed ground attack and he's throwing to the best receiver in Saints history. Brees also has an aggressive coach who knows how to win. Indeed, the Brees/Payton doesn't lose home playoff games. Period. The Saints are 6-0 here in playoff games with the combination of Payton/Brees running the show. Michael Thomas had this to say of Payton: "When Coach pushes his chips all in, we've got to push our chips all in right with him, and that’s how you win games." Saints wideout Michael Thomas said. I really like the way the Saints rallied last week and feel thats the type of win that can and will provide them with positive momentum right from the opening kickoff Sunday afternoon. The Saints had their "wake-up call" against the Eagles and I expect a much quicker start here. Expect them to be leading at the break.
|01-19-19||Oklahoma v. Texas -3.5||Top||72-75||Loss||-110||14 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Sooners may currently have the higher national ranking but I believe that the Longhorns are favored for good reason. The Sooners, who lost by seven at Texas Tech last time on the road, are 0-2 ATS the last two times that they were road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. Going back further finds them at 15-23-1 ATS their last 39 in that role. Last time out, the Sooners were upset by K-State. They're 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were off an upset loss in Big 12 play, 0-3 ATS their last three when off a double-digit loss as a favorite. Off three straight close losses, look for Longhorns to finally break through for a victory, covering the small number along the way.
|01-19-19||Suns v. Hornets -6.5||Top||115-135||Win||100||23 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* VIOLATOR). After losing three straight, the Hornets have rebounded with b2b blowout wins. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into today's game. Note that the Hornets are 4-2 ATS as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range and also 4-2 ATS when off a win of 15 or more points. The Suns are 0-2 to start their road trip and they've got the front end of a home-and-home with Minnesota on deck tomorrow. After getting blown out, they lost by just three last time out. The close losses can often be even tougher to bounce back from; the Suns are just 2-5 ATS off a loss by six or less, 14-23 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons. Expect a blowout.
|01-18-19||Nets v. Magic +1||Top||117-115||Loss||-110||22 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). The Magic are playing well right now. Sure, they lost last time out. However, that was on the road and they took the Pistons to OT. Their last two home games, the Magic actually beaten the Rockets and Celtics. Going back further finds them at 4-0 SU/ATS their last four games here. Granted, the Nets are also playing well. In fact, they too, just defeated the Celtics and Rockets. Though they had yesterday off, that Houston win on Thursday may have taken an extra toll, a 145-142 OT thriller. An emotional and/or physical letdown could well be in order. Note that the Nets are only 2-5 SU/ATS off a win by three or less. They're also 2-7 ATS after having covered three of their previous four games. I think its important to note that these teams will meet in Brooklyn in less than a week. The Magic know this and know that they need to take care of business on their home floor. They've had excellent success against the Atlantic Division and it continues tonight.
|01-18-19||Maple Leafs v. Panthers +1.5||Top||1-3||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing FLORIDA on the puck-line. (10* PERS FAV, +1.5 goals.) The Leafs are off a big win at Tampa less than 24 hours ago. Off that victory, I expect them to have their hands full against a determined Panther team tonight. These teams have already met twice this season. The home team won both meetings, the game here finishing with a 4-3 final score. Speaking of close games, six of the past seven meetings between these teams, including each of the past three here at Florida, have been decided by a single goal. The Panthers are 4-0 the last four times that they hosted the Leafs. Since the start of 2014, they'd be 10-1 in 11 meetings here against the Leafs, if getting an extra +1.5 goals in each. Schedule in their favor, expect AT LEAST a puck-line cover.
|01-17-19||Oregon State v. Arizona State -4||Top||67-70||Loss||-115||16 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on ASU (10* GAME OF THE YEAR). The favorite is 6-2 ATS the last eight times that these teams have faced each other and I expect those stats to improve here. Indeed, this is a case of the Beavers being in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Sun Devils just got upset by the Cardinal, at Stanford, in their last game. Prior to that, they'd won b2b games by double-digits. The last time that they were off a loss, the Sun Devils responded with a 22-point win over Colorado. Including that result, ASU is 7-2 ATS the past nine times it was off a double-digit Pac-12 loss. Over the years, the Beavers are just 12-20 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're also 3-7 ATS (2-8 SU) the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive victories. Lay the points and expect a relatively decisive win for the home team.
|01-17-19||Kings v. Hornets -3||Top||95-114||Win||100||23 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* PERS FAV). These teams just faced each other, at Sacramento, on Saturday. The Kings won by seven. Not surprising, given that Charlotte is just 6-15 on the road. Playing on their home floor, where they're a far better 14-8, I expect the revenge-minded Hornets to get some payback on Thursday. Note that the Hornets are 6-2 ATS their past eight when attempting to avenge a 'same season' loss. Charlotte was laying -10.5 for last season's meeting here. Things have changed but not that much. Payback time!
|01-16-19||Sabres +1.5 v. Flames||Top||4-3||Win||100||28 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing BUFFALO on the puck-line. (10* PERS FAV, +1.5 goals) With the Flames listed as heavy money-line favorites, we're able to get an extra +1.5 goals with the visitors for a relatively reasonable price. While I like Buffalo's chances of an outright win, the value of that extra +1.5 goals is huge. I successfully played against the Sabres last time out. They were blown out 7-2, at Edmonton. Off that loss, their third third straight, I expect the Sabres to respond with a much better effort on Wednesday. Buffalo's Evan Rodrigues had this to say of the loss at Edmonton: "... this is one of those games that gives you a little bit of an eyeopener." Its true that the Sabres are just 3-8 their last 11. However, four of those eight losses came by a single goal. In other words, they'd be 7-4 if getting an extra +1.5 goals in each of those. As for the Flames, they won in a blowout last time out. However, each of their previous three wins had all come by a single goal. Speaking of 1-goal games, this season's earlier meeting, at Buffalo, resulted in a 2-1 final. Additionally, the Sabres' most recent visit here at Calgary, which came last January, also finished with a 2-1 final. Expect another close one, the Sabres earning AT LEAST the "puck-line cover."
|01-16-19||George Washington v. La Salle -6||Top||59-56||Loss||-105||14 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA SALLE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The home team has won and covered seven straight when these teams have faced each other. In six of those seven cases, including each of the past five, the home team has won by double-digits. Going back further finds the favorite at 20-6 ATS the past 26 times that these teams have gotten together. I expect homecourt to again prove the different. The Colonials are off b2b losses, most recently losing by 20 against Richmond. The Explorers are stepping down in class here, after three straight against more difficult opponents, games where they were underdogs. They played well in those games. Now, they're back in the role of favorites, a role which has seen them go 2-1 ATS. While they've covered a few this season, the Colonials are still just 9-19 ATS on the road the past 2+ seasons. The ugly home loss against Richmond exposed some issues. It was already going to be a long year, the loss of Arnoldo Toro in December figures to make it a lot worse. Expect another double-digit win for the home team.
|01-15-19||Thunder v. Hawks +9||Top||126-142||Win||100||13 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). While the Thunder have had a couple of days off, I feel that its going to be easy for them to look past the Hawks tonight. Note that OKC is just 4-6 ATS its last 10 as a road favorite in the -6.5 to -12 range. The Thunder are off a home-and-home split with the Spurs and they've got the Lakers on deck Thursday, a game which could mark Lebron's return. Looking past the Hawks will prove costly though, as Atlanta continues to play hard. The Hawks have quietly won four of their past six home games and only one of those two losses came by more than eight points. In fact, they even recently won a road game at Philadelphia. The Hawks had yesterday off and they don't play for a few days after this. Their full focus will be on the Thunder. The Hawks have scored 100 or more in six straight and 114 or more in each of their last two. They're 18-8 ATS the last 26 times that they'd scored 110 or more in b2b games and I expect AT LEAST another cover this evening.
|01-15-19||Florida v. Mississippi State -3||Top||68-71||Push||0||13 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Gators got outscored by a 34-12 margin in terms of "points-in-the-paint," in Saturday's double-digit loss against Tennessee. The Gators' lack of dominant post players is going to hurt them again tonight, as they figure to have to have no answer for 6-11 Holman. The Gators always seem like an attractive underdog, given their program's history. However, they're just 3-11 ATS when getting points the past 2+ seasons. The Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS the past 12 times that they were off b2b SEC losses. Taking advantage of their superior inside game, expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats this evening.
|01-14-19||Hornets +8.5 v. Spurs||Top||108-93||Win||100||15 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Hornets are playing the final games of a road trip. Its been an unsuccessful trip and they're determined to close it with a victory. While that may or may not happen, I do expect their very best effort to lead to AT LEAST a cover. The Hornets have some extra motivation in that Tony Parker is returning "home." Additionally and perhaps more importantly, this is also Coach Borrego's first game against his former mentor, Popovich. While they had yesterday off, the Spurs may still be feeling the effects of Saturday's showdown at OKC. Note that the Spurs are just 1-3 ATS this season, as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Meanwhile, the Hornets are 6-2 ATS when having lost three of their previous four. In a game which figures to have some extra emotion, expect the Hornets to improve on those stats this evening.
|01-14-19||Florida State v. Pittsburgh +5||Top||62-75||Win||100||13 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* BEST BET). The Panthers have been far better at the betting window this season than the Seminoles. Pittsburgh checks in with an 11-4 ATS record. FSU is just 6-10 ATS. I like how this one sets up for the Panthers. The Noles are off a great game against Duke and deserve a ton of credit for their effort. Unfortunately, despite leaving it all on the floor and having a chance to win, they ultimately came up a bucket short. That's going to take a toll on them here. Note that FSU is just 7-14 ATS its last 21 on the road and that includes an 0-8 ATS record as road favorites, or when in a pick'em spot. The Noles were favored by -6.5 or -7 points the last time that they visited here, coming here with a top-20 ranking. Yet, the Panthers won by double-digits. Catching their guests off the heartbreaker vs. Duke, don't be surprised when the Panthers deliver another upset tonight.
|01-13-19||Blazers +4.5 v. Nuggets||Top||113-116||Win||100||25 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* BEST BET). The Nuggets won by a point when these teams met in late November, at Portland. At the time, the Nuggets were red hot, in the midst of a 7-game winning streak, while while Blazers were in the middle of a 1-6 skid. Things set up much differently this time. While the Nuggets have still been playing well, they're now in a tough scheduling spot, which was not the case for the earlier meeting. Denver played last night at Phoenix and will now be playing its third game in the past four days, their fifth game in the past seven. Meanwhile, the rested Blazers are now 6-1 their last seven, instead of 1-6, as was the case earlier. The Blazers are 12-6 ATS their last 18 in the revenge role and that includes a 2-0 ATS mark when attempting to avenge a loss of three or fewer points. Schedule in their favor, expect the Blazers to improve on those stats Sunday evening.
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||Top||13-31||Win||100||97 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC (10* GAME OF WEEK). I'm well aware that the Chiefs haven't historically fared too well in the playoffs. Some of you may remember our play in the game when the Colts shocked the Chiefs in 2014, rallying from a huge deficit to win 45-44. More of you will recall that I successfully backed the underdog Titans against KC in last year's playoffs. (Tennessee rallied in the 4th quarter for the outright win.) I believe that this year's team is different though. Better. Mahomes took the offense to an entirely different level and the team comes in extremely confident as a result. Note that the Colts, who are just 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were off two or more consecutive ATS wins, average 23.9 ppg on the road. Meanwhile, the Chiefs average 32.4 ppg at home. Some times, teams need to lose before they can learn to win. In the Chiefs' case, I believe that they've gone through that and are now ready to win. They come in on a mission and are ready to make things right. While the Colts will be playing their third road game in three weeks, the bye week figures to have served the Chiefs very well. Expect them to be exoricse some of their playoff demons, picking up the cover along the way.
|01-10-19||Celtics v. Heat +1||Top||99-115||Win||100||27 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). Wednesday's game against the Pacers was a big one for the Celtics. Not only are the Pacers ahead of the Celtics in the overall Eastern Conference standings but the Pacers had also beaten the Celtics three straight times, most recently a 1-point game back in early November. While the Celtics were busy playing that 'big game,' the Heat had Wednesday off. The last time that the Celtics played the second of b2b games, they lost by nine, at Detroit. The Heat know that four of their next five come on the road, one of those road games coming at Boston. In other words, they better take care of business here. They've beaten the Celtics twice in a row. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to do so again Thursday.
|01-10-19||Hofstra v. William & Mary +4.5||Top||93-90||Win||100||22 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on WILLIAM & MARY (10* BEST BET). The home team won both meetings last season; the home team is now 11-5 ATS the last 16 in the series. I expect homecourt to again prove the difference. While Hofstra checks in on an extended winning streak and with the much better record overall, thats partly due to William & Mary having played a more difficult schedule. Since hitting conference play, the Tribe have picked up their game. The Tribe's Justin Pierce missed last game and is currently questionable, as of this writing. He's an important player and William & Mary is hopeful to have him available. Even without him, Nathan Knight gives them an average of 24 points and 12 boards per game, while adding an average of five assists and a couple of steals. Matt Milon adds 19 points and seven boards per game while Chase Audige chips in another 13/5. In other words, this team still has plenty of weapons. William & Mary is 4-1 ATS its past five as a home underdog or pick'em. This is a huge game for them and I expect AT LEAST another cover.
|01-09-19||CS-Northridge v. UC Riverside +1||Top||84-83||Push||0||17 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on UC RIVERSIDE (10* BEST BET). The road team had success in this series last season but I expect homecourt to prove significant tonight. Riverside opened as -2 point favorite but by morning the line had come down a bit, providing us with some additional value on the Highlanders. I believe that they're catching the Matadors, who are off b2b hard fought and demoralizing losses, at the right time. Two games ago, the (+14.5) Matadors had a 19-point lead, at San Diego State, with 15 minutes to play. Yet, they allowed the Aztecs to come back and beat them. Next game, the (+7.5 or +8) Matadors lost in OT, against Yale. That's two games in a row, where they had a real chance to score an upset, only to come up short. Those type of losses take a toll and I expect them to catch up with the Matadors tonight. Note that the Matadors are now 0-15 SU (5-10 ATS) the last 15 times that they were off a SU loss where they covered. The Highlanders, on the other hand, come in full of confidence, as they're off a 112-47 "feel-good" blowout win to start the year. Expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game, en route to the win and cover.
|01-07-19||Alabama -6 v. Clemson||Top||16-44||Loss||-110||152 h 25 m||Show|
I'm playing on ALABAMA (10* GAME OF MONTH). I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. In 2017, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' Last season, I switched things up, winning with both Alabama and the 'under.' (Alabama won 24-6.) This year, I'm coming right back with the Tide. Obviously, these are both excellent teams, extremely well-coached, strong on both sides of the ball. I think Alabama is just a bit stronger though. The Tide got their wake-up call vs. the Sooners and thats going to serve them well here. They know they need to be better and they will be. The Tide are 3-0 ATS the past three times that they both scored and allowed 30 or more points in their previous game. During that span, they're also 5-1 ATS when off of two or more consecutive ATS losses. Like last year, expect them to pull away for another win and cover.
|01-07-19||Spurs v. Pistons +3.5||Top||119-107||Loss||-109||21 h 14 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* BEST BET). The Pistons fought hard last game and were within a point in the closing seconds. Ultimately, they lost by five vs. the Jazz, failing to cover by a bucket. Even with that result, however, they're a healthy 6-3 ATS against Western Conference opponents. I expect them to improve on those stats here. True, the Spurs are off four straight wins, the last three of those coming at home. They've won just three of their past nine road games though and one of those victories came by a single point, at Chicago. Its also worth noting that the Spurs are just 4-8 ATS the past 12 times that they were coming off three or more consecutive home wins and just 9-20 ATS, during the same span, when off four consecutive victories overall. Overall, San Antonio is 17-5 at home but 6-12 on the road. With a 10-11 home record, the Pistons can get back to .500 here with a win. They were five point underdogs against the Spurs here last season yet won by 14 points. Don't be surprised by another upset tonight.
|01-06-19||Nets v. Bulls +2.5||Top||117-100||Loss||-110||9 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Nets won a close one here a few weeks ago, eking out a 3-point win. The Bulls are healthier now than they've been all season and thats translated to a 5-2 ATS mark their last seven. This afternoon's game provides a great opportunity to break through with an outright win. The Nets are banged-up themselves, missing the likes of LeVert, Crabbe and Hollis-Jefferson. After this game, the Bulls get a couple of days off before heading out on a West Coast road trip. They very nearly beat Indiana last time out and badly want a victory before hitting the road. Unlike the Bulls, the Nets have a big game tomorrow - the first of two, in a one week span, against the Celtics. That may make it easy to look past the Bulls. That'll prove costly though; the Bulls are 9-4 ATS off a home loss and 3-0 ATS off two or more consecutive home losses. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|01-05-19||Seahawks v. Cowboys -1||Top||22-24||Win||100||124 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on DALLAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). I have a lot of respect for Wilson, Carroll and the Seahawks. With wins in six of their last seven, they've been hot, too. Thats been a grueling stretch though. Not only have the Hawks been back and forth from coast to coast, they've gotten quite banged-up in the process. Keep in mind that this team has been suffering key personnel losses each of the past few offseasons. While the Hawks won the earlier meeting back in September, that was at Seattle. Well known for their strong home field advantage, the Hawks were 6-2 at Seattle. However, they were just 4-4 on the road. The Cowboys, just 3-5 on the road, were a dominant 7-1 here at Dallas. While the Hawks are 6-11 ATS the past 2+ seasons off a home win, the Cowboys are 9-3 ATS off a road win. Expect homefield to prove the difference, the Cowboys improving to 3-0 ATS the last three times that they attempted to avenge a road loss.
|01-05-19||Jazz v. Pistons +2.5||Top||110-105||Loss||-105||8 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* BEST BET). Given the venue and schedule, I believe we're getting excellent value with the Pistons. While Detroit had the past couple of days off, the Jazz were busy beating Cleveland yesterday. Though that may not have been the most taxing game, the Jazz are still just 2-4 SU/ATS when playing the second of b2b games. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 6-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest, 18-11 ATS the past 2+ seasons. Even with last night's win, they're still only 11-12 on the road; the Pistons are 11-8 at home. The Pistons are 6-2 ATS against Western Conference teams, 40-26 ATS the past couple of seasons. Expect at least another cover.
|01-05-19||Colts v. Texans -1||Top||21-7||Loss||-120||120 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Colts came through when they needed to against the Titans, a 33-17 victory. Taking on the Texans figures to be far more difficult. This Houston team can do it all. A highly capable QB with one of the most dominant receivers in the game. A running game which ranks #8 in the NFL. An outstanding defense which tied for #4 in the league, in terms of points allowed per game, one which shuts down opposing running games and forces teams to try and beat them through the air. While the road team did manage to win both regular season meetings, home field is indeed significant to both teams. The Colts are 4-4 on the road, the Texans are 6-2 at home. The Colts are 1-3 ATS their last four, as road underdogs of three or less. During that span, they're also just 3-7 ATS after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game. Bottom line: I believe that the Texans are the more complete team and that getting them here at Houston, laying less than a field goal, is offering excellent value. Expect them to advance, covering the small number along the way.
|01-03-19||Rockets v. Warriors -8||Top||135-134||Loss||-106||14 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Even some diehard Warrior fans might be skeptical of laying this many points against Harden and the Rockets. Off b2b double-digit wins, I believe that the champs are finally back in the groove though. The calendar having flipped to 2019, they're going to use tonight's game to demonstrate that. The Rockets continue to be without Paul. Eric Gordon, who had contributed double-digits in scoring in his last seven straight games, 17 or more in his last five, normally logs heavy minutes in Paul's absence. However, he's out, too. Auston Rivers and James Ennis aren't likely to provide Harden with enough secondary scoring to keep up with Curry, Durant, Thompson and co. The Rockets won big when these teams met at Houston earlier. Expect the Warriors, who closed out the year by scoring 132 at Phoenix, to get some payback, improving to 5-0 ATS after scoring 130 or more in their previous game.
|01-03-19||NC State v. Miami-FL +3.5||Top||87-82||Loss||-109||10 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While I like the Hurricanes' chances of winning this one outright, in what could be a close one, I'm happy to grab the points. After going through a tough stretch, the Canes are playing better. Though they haven't been covering, they enter this game off of three straight confidence-building victories. The Wolfpack are just 19-31 ATS the past 50 times that they were listed as road favorites or pick'em, 0-3 ATS their last three in that role. They've only played one true road game this season and that resulted in a loss. They're just 6-14 SU their last 20 on the road. Both last season's meetings were close, Miami winning each by five points. Factoring in those results, the underdog is 10-3-2 ATS the past 15 meetings in this series. Expect at least another cover for the underdog this evening.
|12-31-18||Magic v. Hornets -7||Top||100-125||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* PERS FAV). While the Hornets had yesterday off, the Magic are off a close, hard-fought win against Detroit. They're now playing their third game in four days. They've dropped all three road games, when having played the previous day. The Hornets, who hammered Orlando by 32 earlier in the season, lost a close one at Washington on Saturday, their third loss (SU and ATS) in the last four games. They're 8-2 ATS off a loss by six points or less, 4-0 ATS after having dropped three of their last four. Note that the Hornets' recent losses have come on the road. They've won their last three at home by double-digits. Schedule in their favor, expect another one-sided win tonight.
|12-30-18||Colts v. Titans +3.5||Top||33-17||Loss||-115||12 h 19 m||Show|
I'm playing on TENNESSEE (10* GAME OF WEEK). This game got moved to the primetime slot because there's so much on the line. While Mariota is reportedly less than 100%, he's expected to warmup with the intention of playing. In the event he doesn't go, Gabbert is a highly capable backup. He beat the Texans when called upon earlier in the year. Last week, he relieved Mariota and led the Titans to a comeback win against the Redskins. Note that was a Saturday game, giving the Titans an extra day of prep time, compared to the Colts who eked out a 1-point win on Sunday. Speaking of close games, the Colts last road game resulted in a 3-point win. Even with that victory, they've won just two of their last six on the road; the only win by more than a field goal came at Oakland. While the Colts won big in the earlier meeting, that was at Indianapolis and it was before the Tennessee ground game got going. Whether its Mariota or Gabbert behind center, the Titans' QB will have the luxury of handing off to a red hot running back. Derrick Henry has been nearly unstoppable, piling up an 81/532/8 stat line over the past month. Don't be surprised when this one comes down to the wire, the Titans improving to 5-0 ATS the last five times that they attempted to avenge a loss where they'd allowed 35 or more points.
|12-29-18||Notre Dame +14 v. Clemson||Top||3-30||Loss||-124||173 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME (10* GAME OF YEAR). Having successfully played against the Irish in the past, I'm well aware that they haven't always come through when forced to step up and take on elite teams in bowl games. That said, I believe that this year's team is different. While I absolutely respect the Tigers, also a great team, I believe that the Irish can (and will) absolutely compete the entire way. This is a team without a weakness. They brought back a ton of experience from the team which rallied to beat LSU on New Year's Day last year. That was the first New Year's Day win for the Irish since 1994. Having achieved that goal, this team is hungry for more. They've won with defense. They've won with offense. They've won in blowouts and they've shown an ability to win close games. Speaking of close games, you may recall these teams playing a few years ago, at Death Valley. The Tigers had to hang on to win by only two points. While Clemson was already really good, this year's Notre Dame is arguably better than that one. The Tigers have been able to dominate on the ground against weak rush defenses. However, thre teams ranked in the top 30 against the run were able to slow down Clemson. I expect the Irish, who have the best defense that the Tigers will have seen, to have success against the Tiger run game, forcing them to the air. Don't be surprised when this one isn't decided until the final play, the "luck of the Irish," shining on Notre Dame.
|12-28-18||UC-Davis +10 v. Loyola Marymount||Top||59-77||Loss||-105||33 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on UC DAVIS (10* GAME OF WEEK). If you just looked at the records, you'd think that the Aggies (3-8 and 0-5 on the road) would have no chance. However, a closer look shows that Cal Davis has played road games at venues like Arizona, Northern Illinois, Indiana and Arkansas while hosting the likes of San Francisco. In other words, its been a challenging schedule and the sub-500 record isn't surprising. Those tough road games will work in their favor though; they very nearly won at Arizona (2-point loss) last time out and won't be intimidated here. While the Lions are a solid team, they did lose by seven at UC Riverside last time out. Only one of their last five games has resulted in a win of greater than 10 points; prior to the loss last time out, they'd won their previous game by a single point. While the Lions are 2-6 ATS their last eight as home favorites in the 6.5 to 12 range, the Aggies are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs, in the same range, during the same span. Grab the points and don't be surprised if the Aggies take this down to the wire and score the upset.
|12-27-18||Duke v. Temple -3||Top||56-27||Loss||-110||27 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Owls come in confident. They won six of their final seven, including a double-digit win at Houston, the lone loss came against UCF. They won their last two games by a combined score of 84-24. Sure, they're going through a coaching change but unlike the last time when it happened a couple of years ago, they're much better prepared - all the assistants stayed on this time. After coming up short in (interim coach) Ed Foley's first chance at a bowl, two years ago, they're going to be hungry to get this one. Duke, meanwhile, lost its last two games by a combined score of 94-13. The Owls have plenty of stats working in their favor, as they've been money at the betting window in recent seasons. One that stands out is their perfect 7-0 ATS record, when coming off an ATS win as a double-digit favorite. Expect the Owls to improve on those stats Thurs. afternoon.
|12-26-18||Suns v. Magic -4||Top||122-120||Loss||-110||27 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Suns have been on a nice ATS winning streak. However, I fully expect it to come to an end here. The Suns will be playing fifth straight on the road, their final road game of 2018 and final road game for quite some time. I feel that they could easily be thinking ahead to the return trip home. While they did have a couple of days off over Christmas, the triple-OT and b2b games on 12/22 and 12/23 may still catch up with the Suns here. Note that they're 12-20 ATS the past 32 times that they played with two day's rest in between games, 2-4 ATS in that situation this season. Off three straight lopsided losses, the Magic are going to be extremely hungry. The Magic already hammered the Suns at Phoenix and are 4-0 SU the last four in the series, all four wins coming by a minimum of six points. Expect them to bounce back with their best effort, improving to 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were off three consecutive double-digit losses.
|12-25-18||Lakers v. Warriors -8.5||Top||127-101||Loss||-115||24 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Warriors have been winning some close games of late, while failing to cover. That caused this line to come out in the single-digits. Make no mistake, the champs are still capable of laying down the hammer and winning games by double-digits. A Christmas Day visit from Lebron and the Lakers is the perfect opportunity to remind everyone of that fact. While Lebron is obviously still on top of his game, the Lakers, 8-14-1 ATS the past 23 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 230 or greater, don't have enough weapons to keep up. Not against the well-oiled machine which is the Warriors, finally back to health. While Durant did tweak an ankle last game, as of this writing, he's expected to be fine. (He typically dominates on Christmas, averaging 31.1 ppg.) Expect a "statement" win for the champs.
|12-23-18||Mavs v. Blazers -7||Top||118-121||Loss||-110||26 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* PERS FAV). These teams met at Dallas a few weeks ago. At the time, the Blazers were really struggling. The Mavs won 111-102. At the time, that result dropped the Blazers to 1-10 ATS (3-8 SU) over an 11-game stretch. However, they've since turned things around. Since the Dallas game, even counting a blowout loss vs. Utah last time out, they've gone 5-3 SU/ATS. Here, they catch the Mavs off a game vs. the defending champs and playing their second game in two days. The Mavs are 1-3 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, most recently losing by double-digits at Phoenix. The Blazers, meanwhile, are 10-4 ATS their last 14 in the revenge role, 6-2 ATS when avenging a road loss. The Blazers, who beat Dallas by nine the last meeting here, are also 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were off a double-digit divisional loss. Schedule in their favor, expect them to improve on those stats Sunday.
|12-23-18||Bears v. 49ers +5||Top||14-9||Push||0||10 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO (10* GAME OF WEEK). I've won with the 49ers each of the past two weeks. I've really liked what I've seen from them and I'm going back to the well one more time. This is the 49ers home finale, which should provide some added motivation. They want to keep their positive momentum going and are anxious to see how they fare against one of this season's top teams. While the Bears still boast a great defense, they're going to be without safety Eddie Jackson. Thats a big boost for the 49ers as Jackson has six INTs this season and has scored three TD's. Linebacker Aaron Lynch will also miss for the Bears. Chicago, which has already clinched the NFC North, is off a win over archrival Green Bay (and the Rams before that) and has division rival Minnesota on deck. Note that the Bears are 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were listed as road favorites of seven or less. Meanwhile, the 49ers are now 3-0 ATS this season as home underdogs of seven or less. Last season's meeting, at Chicago, had a final score of 16-15. The 49ers had a 23-8 edge in first downs and dominated time of possession. While obviously much has changed, I expect another close one and I'm grabbing the points.
|12-23-18||Falcons v. Panthers -2.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-106||101 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA. As most of you are aware, I won with the Panthers when they covered against the Saints on Monday night. Though they fell short of the SU win, I liked their effort. This is a team which plays much better on its home field. Sunday afternoon represents their home finale and I believe that they're going to be highly motivated to snap their losing streak and to reward the home faithful with a final victory. The fact that they're playing with revenge against a division rival only should only add to their motivation level. True, the Falcons got a big win last week. However, that was at home against a poor Arizona team. Now, the Falcons are on the road where they're just 1-5. The Panthers are 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they were off a division loss. While they won't have Newton, I believe they're still very capable of winning. Taylor Heinicke may not have NFL experience but he is very ready and knows this system extremely well. Wide reveiver Jarius Wright noted: "I'm expecting him to go out there and play lights out. I think Taylor's a good quarterback — I just think a lot of people haven't gotten a chance to see him play. So I'm excited for him to show everybody else what he can do. Because I've seen it." Expect their best effort, as they again bounce back from a div. loss, with another win and cover.
|12-22-18||Ravens v. Chargers -4.5||Top||22-10||Loss||-106||128 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA. On this field, I believe that the Chargers are the superior team. Combine that with, what I believe is also, a significant scheduling advantage, and I expect them to pull away for a big win Saturday afternoon. The Ravens average 21.4 ppg on the road, the Chargers average 29.3 ppg at home. While the Ravens are working on a short week, the Chargers have had extra time to prepare. The Ravens will already be playing their third road game in December. Some might be surprised to learn that they're only 5-11 ATS their last 16 as underdogs, 4-10 ATS as road underdogs. In fact, the Ravens are 0-7 ATS the past seven times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 4-0 SU this season and 6-1 SU / 5-2 ATS when off a win by six or less. Homefield and schedule in their favor, expect them to improve on those stats Saturday evening.
|12-22-18||Raptors v. 76ers -4.5||Top||101-126||Win||100||13 h 9 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* VIOLATOR). The Raptors have taken both this season's meetings. However, both of those were at Toronto. This evening, in addition to having the venue in their favor, the revenge-minded 76ers have the schedule working for them. The Raptors are off a win against Cleveland last night and are now playing their third game in the past four days. Making matters worse, Philly native Kyle Lowry is expected to be out again for the Raptors while start Kawaii Leonard is expected to rest. The 76'ers, meanwhile, have had the past two days off. They're 24-12 ATS in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they're 37-24 ATS as home favorites, 18-12 ATS as home favorites of six or less. It all adds up to one thing. Payback time.
|12-22-18||Buffalo -1 v. Troy||Top||32-42||Loss||-105||12 h 23 m||Show|
I'm playing on BUFFALO (10* ANNIHILATOR). I successfully played against the Bulls in their last regular season game. That 1-point loss has caused everyone to jump off the bandwagon. The Bulls opened as a 3-point favorite but that quickly came down. I feel thats providing us with plenty of value. The Bulls have still had an excellent season and they're going to come in hungry; they're 10-5 ATS their last 15 off a game where they didn't cover. To me, Troy's double-digit loss to Appalachian State in its last game is more concerning than Buffalo's loss against NIU. The Bulls can put up plenty of points and are never out of a game. As Troy's coach Neal Brown noted: "They’re as good an offense as we’ve faced all year. It starts with the quarterback." (Jackson had 27 TD passed vs. just 11 Ints, throwing for nearly 3000 yards.) With 10 wins, these Bulls have already made history. They're not done yet - expect them to bring home the first bowl win in school history.
|12-22-18||Ohio State v. UCLA +5.5||Top||80-66||Loss||-109||8 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). Calls for Steve Alford's firing are growing louder. A blowout loss this afternoon may seal his fate. Though its still December, a loss here is going to really hurt the Bruins' chances of making the NCAA Tournament - as they're unlikely going to be able to pick up enough quality wins after this one. This is still a very talented team though, one absolutely capable of competing with the Buckeyes and beating them. Aware of the situation, I expect them to rise to the occasion and to bring their best game. While I respect the Buckeyes, lets also not forget that they're just 3-7 ATS their last 10 on a neutral court, 11-21 ATS in non-conference play, during that same span. The previous time that the Bruins were off b2b losses, they responded with a 19-point win. Including that result, they're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they'd lost two of their previous three. Look for them to improve on those stats here.
|12-20-18||Rockets v. Heat +3.5||Top||99-101||Win||100||13 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Rockets have admittedly been playing better of late, this is a tough spot for them. While the Heat are very well-rested, the Rockets are off a game last night vs. Washington and are now playing their third game in the past four days. They're 2-3 ATS in b2b situations this season and just 2-7 ATS when off a game vs. an Eastern Conf. team. With the exception of a win at Memphis, the Rockets' current winning streak has come at home. They're still 6-10 ATS on the road. The Heat have quietly been playing well themselves. They're 2-0 SU/ATS their last two and 9-3 ATS (7-5 SU) their last 12. Venue and schedule in their favor, expect them to improve to 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games.
|12-20-18||Northern Illinois v. Northern Kentucky -5.5||Top||62-65||Loss||-109||12 h 9 m||Show|
I'm playing on NORTHERN KENTUCKY (10* PERS FAV). The Norse already beat NIU (in OT) on the road. While the Huskies would love to avenge that loss, its not happening. Not here. The Huskies are 7-24 SU in road lined games the past few seasons while the Norse are 25-3 SU in home lined games. The Huskies won big against lowly Western Illinois last time out. However, that was at home. Their last road game resulted in a 27-point road loss. Also, they're just 5-10 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit win. After having dropped b2b road games, Northern Kentucky got back on track last time, winning by six against Miami Ohio, another MAC opponent. Note that the Norse are 8-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after having dropped two of their previous three games. Expect the Norse to continue their strong play at home, covering the reasonably small number along the way.
|12-19-18||Montana +9 v. Arizona||Top||42-61||Loss||-108||26 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on MONTANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Admitedly, the Grizzlies have had their struggles on the road. However, I feel that they're providing us with excellent value here. The Wildcats are off b2b SU losses and are 0-2-1 ATS their last three. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies returned four starters - and six of their seven top scorers - from last year's NCAA Tournament team. While that team would eventually lose to Michigan, they hung with the Wolverines for the first half. An experienced team with senior leadership, they're not going to be intimidated here. Indeed, I believe this team is better than its shown. While Montana returned the majority of its starting roster, Arizona lost all five of last season's starters. Expect those personnel losses to continue to haunt the Wildcats here, the Grizzlies rising to the occasion, their best effort leading to at least the cover.
|12-19-18||Ohio v. San Diego State +3||Top||27-0||Loss||-119||58 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* VIOLATOR). After stumbling down the stretch, I believe we're going to see an extremely motivated Aztec team on Wednesday, one which tends to thrive in the underdog role. Note that the Aztecs are 7-1 ATS the last eight times that they were getting points. I believe that the Aztec defense is better than it showed down the stretch. They're strong against the run, which will serve them well against the Ohio ground attack. Note that they're 26-14 ATS over the years, after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of the previous game. While I respect the Bobcats, I feel that their schedule was pretty soft. Note that they're just 3-8 ATS over the year, after b2b victories of 21 or more points. I expect Rocky Long to do a great job of ensureing that losing down the stretch makes for an extremely motivated SDSU team, one that comes away with AT LEAST the Frisco Bowl cover.
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers +7||Top||12-9||Win||100||27 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* MAIN EVENT). Its not often the Panthers find themselves getting points at home, let alone this many of them. Thats the case though - a combination of New Orleans having a strong season and Carolina currently struggling. Lets not forget that the Panthers are 11-6 ATS the past few seasons, when getting points, 3-1 ATS as home underdogs. During that stretch, they're also 8-5 ATS when coming off a road loss. I expect this game to carry a lot of meaning for the Panthers. Division rival, Monday night, looking to snap their skid, looking to prove to the world that they're a much better team than their record indicates. Note that none of the Panthers' last four losses came by more than a touchdown and those four losses came by an average of only four points. Speaking of close games, three of the past five meetings between these teams have been decided by five or less. I'm grabbing the points.
|12-17-18||Kings v. Wolves -8||Top||105-132||Win||100||27 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams have met twice so far this season. Both meetings were at Sacramento. The Kings won both by double-digits. This evening, however, the T-Wolves have homecourt on their side. They've also got the schedule working in their favor. While Minneota had Sunday off, the Kings were busy playing at Dallas. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this will be the Kings' third game in the past four days. The last four times that the Kings played the second of b2b games? They went 0-4 SU/ATS. All four of those games resulted in double-digit losses, 107-97, 133-112, 132-112, 101-86. Expect more of the same here, a highly motivated Minnesota team pulling away for another double-digit win.
|12-16-18||Seahawks v. 49ers +7||Top||23-26||Win||100||121 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF (10* GAME OF MONTH). I won with the 49ers last week and I'm coming right back with them again here. While Seattle won again last week, it now plays on a short week. Though he had some decent plays with his feet, Wilson had a poor performance and the final score wasn't necessarily all that reflective of the way the game played out. Note that Seattle is just 2-6 ATS its last eight as a road favorite. During that span, the Hawks are also just 3-6 ATS off a double-digit home win and a poor 5-11 ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points. The 49ers, 2-0 ATS as home underdogs of seven or fewer points, will be looking to prove that they're a alot better than the team which got blown out at Seattle a couple of weeks ago. Venue (and schedule) now in their favor, expect a huge effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover Sunday afternoon.
|12-15-18||Browns v. Broncos -3||Top||17-16||Loss||-103||101 h 23 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). While I successfully played against the Broncos last week, they're back home now and I feel that they're providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that this team had previous won and covered three straight. Last week was just a tough spot, as they were playing their second straight on the road. The Broncos' last few home games have come against quality teams like the Steelers, Texans and Rams. While Cleveland is better than it has been in recent years, the Browns have still dropped three of their last four on the road. The last two of those losses both came by double-digits. The Browns will be playing their third road game in the past four weeks and they've got divisional games against the Bengals and Ravens on deck. Expect the Broncos to bounce back and improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were off an upset loss as a road favorite.
|12-15-18||North Texas +9 v. Utah State||Top||13-52||Loss||-105||238 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* MAIN EVENT). The Aggies will say all the right things that they're happy to be here. They're not. They wanted a bigger bowl and this is a disappointment. That type of disappointment makes it difficult to win, let alone cover a big number. The Aggies' task is made that much tougher by the fact that the Mean Green are actually pretty good. In 2015, the Mean Green won only a single game, before hiring current head coach Seth Littrell. That hiring proved to be huge for them, as they've been competitive ever since. This marks their second straight season with nine wins and this is their best team under Littrel. While Littrel was rumord to be heading to K-State, he reportedly withdrew his name from consideration. Meanwhile, Utah State's coach (Matt Wells) has already left for Texas Tech. The Aggie offensive and defensive coordinators joined him, too. Having come up short in bowl games the past two seasons, the Mean Green have something to prove. I believe that this game means more to them and I expect that to lead to AT LEAST a cover.
|12-14-18||Raptors v. Blazers +3.5||Top||122-128||Win||100||13 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (8* SHOCKER). Off a huge road win over the champs, I believe that the Raptors are going to be ripe for a letdown. Note that the Raptors are 5-9 ATS after scoring 110 or more in two more consecutive games. They'll be facing an angry and talented Portland team, one which hasn't lost a home game by more than four points all season. Not surprisingly, the Blazers are already 1-0 ATS as home underdogs (15-point win over the Bucks) this season; 11-7 ATS in that role the past couple of years. The Blazers haven't forgotten that the Raptors came in here and shut them down early last season, before blowing them out at Toronto. Its finally payback time!