|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-17-19||Tigers v. Rays -1.5||Top||0-1||Loss||-145||9 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing TAMPA on the run-line (-1.5 runs) This one's a major mismatch. Yarbrough is 11-3 with a 3.56 ERA overall. In six starts, his ERA dips to 3.16 to go along with a sparkling 0.75 WHIP. He's averaged better than seven innings in those starts, too, striking out 32 while walking only four. Last time out, he tossed a complete game 3-hit shutout, striking out eight without walking a batter. In fact, in his last two starts, he's gone 15 innings without allowing a run. Conversely, Zimmerman is 1-8 with a 7.13 ERA on the season. He just had to receive a nerve block injection last week, as he was dealing with a cervical spasm. Needless to say, thats less than ideal. Rays roll.
|08-14-19||Cardinals v. Royals +1.5||Top||6-0||Loss||-125||12 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing KC on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Keller averages 6 2/3 innings per home start and he's got a 3.51 ERA and 1.136 WHIP here. Opposing batters hit .214 against him here. Those are pretty solid numbers. By comparison, Hudson has a 4.45 ERA and 1.632 WHIP on the road, where he averages 5 1/3 innings. Keller faced the Cards earlier this season. He was excellent in that 5/22 start, as he allowed just two hits and two runs through seven complete innings, winning 8-2. I expect AT LEAST another 'run-line cover' in this one.
|08-13-19||Rays v. Padres +1.5||Top||7-5||Loss||-145||13 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I like the Padres' chances of winning this one 'outright,' I'm happy to grab the extra +1.5 runs. Lauer has struggled on the road but he's got a solid 2.89 ERA here at home. The Padres have won five of his past six starts here. McKay can hit, so thats one advantage that he has. However, he also has a 5.79 ERA in four starts since the All Star Break. Opposing batters are hitting .313 against him in those games. Expect Lauer and the Padres to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'
|08-08-19||Calgary v. Winnipeg -7.5||Top||24-26||Loss||-109||59 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on WINNIPEG. The Stamps have continued to play well and win games, despite playing without their starting QB. Now they're up against an angry Winnipeg team which has been better on both sides of the ball than they have. Not only has Winnipeg scored (20) more points than Calgary, the Bombers have also allowed (23) less. The Bombers have lost b2b games but both those were on the road. Now, they're back home where they're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS, outscoring visiting teams by more than 18 ppg. They beat Calgary by eight here last season and they're arguably a better team now. In addition to having homefield advantage, the Bombers also have a major scheduling advantage. They last played on 8/1 at Toronto; the Stamps last played their archrival (Edmonton) on 8/3, which has them working on an extra short week. Bombers bounce back with a statement blowout win.
|07-27-19||Saskatchewan v. BC +3||Top||45-18||Loss||-107||103 h 25 m||Show|
I'm playing on BC. These teams just met at Saskatchewan last week. The Riders pulled away late for the win and cover. With this week's rematch being played at Vancouver, I expect the revenge-minded Lions to get some payback. Admittedly, BC hasn't been very good. That said, the same can pretty much be said for Saskatchewan. I don't feel that the Riders are ready to be laying points on the road. The Lions have won four of the past five against the Riders here, the lone loss came by a field goal. Going back further finds that the Lions have won 11 of their last 15 against the Riders here. The Riders were a bit fortunate last week, as they benefitted with a 100-yard kickoff return. Overall, the Lions had a 468-379 edge in total yards while also enjoying an edge of more than six minutes, in terms of time of possession. Despite coming up short, the Lions got a strong showing from QB Reilly. He finished 31 of 40 (346 yards) overall and completed 14 consecutive passes, at one point. Expect Reilly and co. to build on that effort Saturday. In a case where I expect an outright win, I'll happily grab the points.
|07-20-19||BC +6 v. Saskatchewan||Top||25-38||Loss||-105||4 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on BC. I waited patiently all week for this line to climb and my patience was finally rewarded. Sure, BC looked pretty bad last week. The Riders aren't exactly a dominant team though and the Lions will look much better. Indeed, Saskatchewan is only 1-3 (lone win came against Toronto, a team BC also beat) and is coming off a 37-10 loss to a Calgary team playing without its #1 QB. These teams will meet again at Vancouver next week. The Lions know they don't have much (any) homefield advantage though and that they better take care of business while away from home. Last season's first meeting between these teams was decided by just a field goal. Look for the Lions to give the Riders all they can handle, picking up AT LEAST the cover.
|07-19-19||Ottawa +10.5 v. Winnipeg||Top||1-31||Loss||-125||62 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on OTTAWA. While the Bombers have gotten off to a great start, I expect them to have their hands full this evening. The Redblacks won at Calgary in their lone road game. So, they're fully capable of competing at a difficult venue. Including that upset win, they're a lucrative 16-6 ATS their last 22, when getting points and 14-5 ATS their last 19 road games, overall. Off b2b losses, the first coming at the hands of these same Blue Bombers, Ottawa is going to be extremely hungry. Note that the Redblacks are 6-1 ATS (5-2 SU) their last seven, after having lost consecutive games. Grab the generous points.
|07-13-19||Calgary v. Hamilton -4||Top||23-30||Win||100||13 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on HAMILTON. Enough is enough! To say that the Stampeders have owned the Ti-Cats would be an understatement. The last time that Hamilton beat the Stamps was way back in 2011, in a game at Moncton, New Brunswick. Since that time, Calgary has won 15 straight in the series, including a win in the 2014 Grey Cup. Times have changed, however, and this is the perfect time for the Ti-Cats to finally have their revenge. The Stamps are banged-up and without their starting QB, Bo Levi Mitchell. (Mitchell was the Grey Cup MVP last year and he was also the CFL's Most Outstanding Player.) The Cats are 3-0 their last three at home. In this season's two games here, they're outscoring teams by an average score of 32 to 13.5. Time for some long-awaited PAYBACK!
|07-01-19||Toronto v. Saskatchewan -10||Top||7-32||Win||100||57 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on SASKATCHEWAN. I've always been a believer in not over-reacting to one game. That said, if a team looks really really good, or really really bad, I also don't just completely discount what I've witnessed. In case you missed it, the Argos were atrocious in their opener. Hosting Hamilton, the Argos were awful in all facets of the game and lost 64-14. There were too many problems to expect them all to get resolved over the course of one week. Don't expect the Riders to feel sorry for them. Saskatchewan has been involved in two close games, losing both. Those came on the road though, a 23-17 loss at Hamilton and a 44-41 setback at Ottawa. Playing their home opener and stepping down considerably in class, they're going to be fired up. Not only will the Riders have the advantage of playing at home, in front of a raucous Canada Day crowd, they've also had a couple of extra days of preparation time. Fajardo looked sharp last week and the defense looked good against the Ti-Cats. Look for the Riders, who are 2-0 SU/ATS the last two times they hosted the Argos, to put it all together, pulling away for a double-digit win.
|06-27-19||Edmonton v. Winnipeg -3.5||Top||21-28||Win||100||78 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on WINNIPEG. While both teams are undefeated, I like the home team for a number of reasons. The Eskimos are 2-0 and are playing on a shorter than normal week. The Bombers are 1-0; they had last week off. That figures to benefit them here. Last week was an emotional victory for the Eskimos, as it came against their former QB. A letdown will not surprise. Keep in mind that the Eskimos went through numerous changes in the offseason, overhauling their team. It hasn't caught up with them yet but they also haven't played on the road yet. Now, they'll take on a talented Winnipeg team which is hungry to win its home opener. The Bombers are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games here, winning by a combined score of 91-35. Expect another win and cover on Thursday.
|06-20-19||Saskatchewan +6 v. Ottawa||Top||41-44||Win||100||76 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on SASKATCHEWAN. I successfully played against the Riders last week. However, I really like how this one sets up for them. Off their Week 1 loss, the Riders are going to be hungry to get back on track. In the Week 1 loss, the Riders lost their starting QB (Collaros) early in the game. Hamilton's Simoni Lawrence has since been handed a 2-game suspension. Whether its Fajardo or Harker behind center for this one, they'll have had a normal week's worth of preparation and will be ready to go. Thats more than can be said for Ottawa. The Redblacks are off a comeback revenge win over the defending champs, at Calgary. (You may recall that Calgary beat them in the Grey Cup.) That game at Calgary was on Saturday, making for a short week. Given that short week and what an emotional win Saturday's game was, I believe the Redblacks are ripe for a letdown. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the Riders score the outright upset.
|06-13-19||Raptors v. Warriors -3.5||Top||114-110||Loss||-100||61 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I've stated several times that the Raptors rarely do anything easily. They had a chance to close out the series in Game 5 but didn't. Having missed that opportunity, I fully expect this series to go the distance. The Warriors are now 14-6 ATS their last 20 when trailing in a playoff series, 8-3 ATS when facing elimination. While the champs won't have Durant, they do have Curry and Thompson now firing on all cylinders. They didn't have Thompson for the first of the two previous home games and he was still in his first game back for the second. Cousins, too, has found his form. Kerr had this to say of his volatile center: "I thought DeMarcus was fantastic tonight. He stayed ready. He didn’t get the first call for that second-quarter run. We went to [Andrew Bogut] and then with the injury we knew we needed his scoring and he stayed ready and played a brilliant game. I'm so happy for him and he's been through an awful lot himself over the last year plus his own injuries." The Warriors are 9-2 SU/ATS their last 11 when playing a Game 6. Momentum back in their corner, expect them to improve on those stats here.
|06-13-19||Saskatchewan v. Hamilton -2.5||Top||17-23||Win||100||70 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on HAMILTON. The Riders have had the edge in this series in recent years. Expect Hamilton to get some payback on Opening Night. While the Ti-Cats should be a team on the rise, don't be surprised if Saskatchewan takes a step back this season. The Ticats bring back QB Masoli along with his top receiving weapons. Thats a good thing. Masoli threw for more than 5200 yards, top in the East. His 28 passing TDs also led the East. The Riders lost both their coach and GM in the offseason. They tried to sign a new QB (Bo Levi Mitchell) but failed to do so. So, they're settling with who they already had, Zach Collaros. On the defensive side, losing defensive end Willie Jefferson is a blow. Ticats start the season with a victory, covering the small number along the way.
|06-07-19||Raptors v. Warriors -5.5||Top||105-92||Loss||-104||36 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. While Durant has been ruled out, the Warriors are expecting to get Thompson back. Needless to say, that'll be a big help. After the Warriors lost Game 1, I played on them in Game 2. At the time, I said that the "Raptors rarely do anything easily." Expect them to have their hands full with the desperate champs tonight. The Raptors aren't likely to get another massive performance (6-3-pointers) from Danny Green. The Warriors know that they can't afford to lose this one. They're going to be playing with extreme intensity right from the opening tipoff. Expect them to dig deep and even up the series, covering the relatively small number along the way.
|06-02-19||Warriors +2 v. Raptors||Top||109-104||Win||100||57 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs had a very long layoff before Game 1. So, its not surprising that they were a bit rusty. That won't be an issue in Game 2 though. Down a game, we're going to see the Warriors' very best. The Raptors have been impressive in these playoffs. However, they rarely do anything the 'easy' way. Off a big win in Game 1, we can expect them to have their hands full in this one. Kawhai has been outstanding throughout the playoffs but he's battling a nagging injury and was noticably hobbling at times in Game 1. Siakam was the difference in Game 1. However, with the Warriors adjusting (probably a lot more Green on him) he's highly unlikely to match that effort in Game 2. The Warriors are 32-11 SU their last 43 when off a road loss. Expect them to dig deep and even up the series.
|05-25-19||Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors||Top||94-100||Loss||-106||35 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After dominating the Pistons and the Celtics, perhaps the Bucks weren't quite ready for the type of street-fight that the Raptors were going to give them. I still think they're the more talented team though and they've had five games to get used to the Raptors intensity. Facing elimination for the first time, I expect Antekoumpo and co. to be at their very best. The Bucks did win here back in January, so they know that they can win in this building. They held Toronto to just 92 points in that game. The Raptors got a huge game from Van Fleet on Thursday; thats unlikely to happen again. Brogdon moved back into the starting lineup in Game 5. Thats a big help for Giannis as it gives them another ball handler. Bledsoe had been playing poorly on offense but was better in Game 5, scoring 20 points. A week ago, everyone was counting out the Raptors and I said not to do so. Now, I'm saying, don't count out the Bucks. This series is going the distance.
|05-23-19||Raptors v. Bucks -7||Top||105-99||Loss||-104||36 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I successfully backed the Raptors in both their wins at Toronto. So, I'm not at all surprised that the series is tied. That said, playing at home, I expect the Bucks to take this pivotal game. The Bucks earned the right to play Game 5 (and Game 7, if necessary) here at Milwaukee by being the best team all season. Even off their Game 4 loss, they're still 22-2 SU and 19-5 ATS when off a loss. Prior to their current 2-game skid, they'd only lost twice in a row once all season. Off that previous 2-game skid, they responded with a 19-point win over Indiana, holding the Pacers to 98 points. They're 9-1 ATS (10-0 SU) after having lost two of their last three. The Raptors are an exhausted team as they fought a lot harder to get here than Milwaukee did and as they're starters are logging heavy minutes. The home crowd in Toronto helped provide energy but they won't have that going for them here. The Bucks won the first two games here by eight and 22 points. Expect more of the same Thursday.
|05-21-19||Bucks v. Raptors +2.5||Top||102-120||Win||100||26 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO. I won with the Raptors in Game 3 and I'm coming right back with them in Game 4. In Game 3, the Raptors were favored. Now, we're getting them as underdogs. While I do expect an outright win, that's definitely some added value. Yes, I'm aware that Milwaukee was great off a loss in the regular season. However, this is a whole different situation. The Bucks had their chance to knock the Raptors out. If they'd won on Sunday and went up 3-0, the series was finished. They probably would have go on to sweep and that would have likely ended the Kawai ere in Toronto. That didn't happen though and the resilient Raptors now have life and momentum. They did an amazing job on Antetokounmpo, as he was 5-16 before fouling out. Losing Lowry, who fouled out in the fourth, was a huge blow for the Raptors, particularly on a night where guys like Green and Van Fleet were really struggling with their shot. To survive that and win without Lowry is going to be really good for this team. I expect Kawai and Lowry to get more help from their secondary players in this one, leading to another Raptors win.
|05-19-19||Bucks v. Raptors -2.5||Top||112-118||Win||100||35 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors embarrassed themselves in Game 2. Back home, I expect an extremely determined effort on Sunday. This is a battle-tested Toronto team. It wasn't long ago that the Raptors were off their huge Game 7 win against Philly. Then, they almost stole Game 1 of this series. One bad game doesn't make them a bad team. The Raptors have still won five of six (and eight of their last 10) here at home. The Raptors are also a perfect 4-0 SU when off a road loss of 20 or more points, 1-0 SU/ATS in these playoffs. They still believe that they can win this series. While that remains to be seen, I fully expect them to take Game 3, covering the small number along the way.
|05-18-19||Warriors v. Blazers -2||Top||110-99||Loss||-113||13 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Warriors have treated me well since Durant went down. I won with them in their Game 6 close-out victory at Houston. (I also won with them in Game 1 of this series. Last game, I won with the total and didn't play the side.) Tonight, however, I expect Durant's absence to finally catch up with them. The Blazers have been a very resilient team these entire playoffs and they're not going to go down without a fight. With the Game 2 cover, the Blazers are 3-0 ATS when trailing in these playoffs. They're also 33-23 ATS (45-11 SU) when they were favored. Additionally, they're 5-1 SU/ATS off two or more consecutive road lossses. While the Warriors are a very solid 31-16 on the road, the Blazers are an even better 37-10 here at home. They beat the Warriors by 22 points the last meeting here. Expect them to play with desperation and for them to finish on top once again.
|05-17-19||Twins v. Mariners +1.5||Top||7-1||Loss||-150||16 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing SEATTLE on the run-line (+1.5 runs) The Twins won big last night but I'm anticipating a much closer game this evening, the Mariners bouncing back with a big effort. Gonzales' last two starts came at Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium. While he pitched very well in New York, he stumbled at Boston. Those are some tough venues though. Here at Safeco, he's 3-2 with a very solid 2.93 ERA. One of those losses was a 3-2 defeat against Cole and the Astros. In other words, one would be 4-1 in Gonzales' five home starts, if they'd been getting an extra +1.5 runs. While the Twins haven't seen Gonzales, the M's are plenty familiar with Perez. The last time that Perez started against them, he lasted just 1 2/3 innings, giving up five runs (2 earned) while walking five batters. Seattle won 12-6. Prior to yesterday, the Twins were off three straight 1-run games and b2b 1-run wins. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover' for the home team in this one.
|05-15-19||Raptors v. Bucks -6||Top||100-108||Win||100||28 h 19 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. As you likely saw, the Raptors are off a thrilling Game 7 win against the 76ers. That was an extremely hard-fought and emotional series and I feel that the Raptors may experience a slight letdown in Wednesday's series opener with the Bucks. Unlike Toronto, Milwaukee is very well rested. The Bucks have been winning big these entire playoffs. They're 8-1 SU/ATS overall. All eight victories came by a minimum of seven points. Seven came by double-digits. The Bucks took three of four regular season meetings, two of their three wins coming by double-digits. Catching the Raptors off perhaps their biggest win in franchise history, I like the Bucks to pull away for another double-digit win here.
|05-14-19||Blazers v. Warriors -8||Top||94-116||Win||100||36 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. As of this writing, Durant remains doubtful for this game. However, his absence didn't stop me from successfully backing the champs in their Game 6 win at Houston and it won't keep me from backing them here. That Game 6 victory was huge for the Warriors. Not only did they prove again that they could win without KD but it also gave them some extra time to rest, recover and prepare for Portland. Thats a luxury which the Blazers don't have, as they're fresh off a gritty Game 7 win at Denver on Sunday afternoon. That series was extremely hard-fought and I feel that it will take a toll on the Blazers. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by double-digits. I expect the combination of the extra rest and homecourt advantage to prove the difference, Curry and co. pulling away for another double-digit win.
|05-10-19||Warriors +7.5 v. Rockets||Top||118-113||Win||100||33 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Obviously, the loss of Durant is a huge blow. Prior to the injury, he was on track to being the playoff MVP. That said, the Warriors are still fully capable of winning without him. Thompson finally got going last game. Curry started slow but also got going when they needed him. Don't forget that Green (and perhaps others) would love to show that they don't need Durant to win. You may recall Green previously saying something along the lines of this to Durant: "You're a b***h and you know you’re a b***h ... We don't need you. We won without you. Leave." Eight straight meetings between these teams have been decided by six or less. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points.
|05-09-19||Raptors v. 76ers +2||Top||101-112||Win||100||35 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the Raptors were dominant in Game 5, I expect the 76ers to bounce back big in Game 6. The Raptors are just 12-16-1 ATS as road favorites. That includes a 4-9-1 ATS mark as road favorites of six or fewer points. Its also worth noting that Toronto is just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times it was off a home win vs. a divisional opponent. While the Raptors have a fairly impressive 29-16 record on the road overall, the 76ers are a much better 34-12 at home. They're 30-16 ATS the past 2+ seasons as home underdogs, 19-11 ATS as home underdogs of six or less. During that span, they're also 10-3-1 ATS after scoring 90 or fewer points in their previous game. Additionally, the 76ers are 13-4 ATS their last 17, when off a road loss against a divisional opponent. That includes a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark their last six in that situation. Expect Philly to bounce back, sending the series back to Toronto for Game 7.
|05-08-19||Rockets v. Warriors -5.5||Top||99-104||Loss||-113||30 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I won with the Rockets in Game 3 and Game 4. I backed them in Game 3 as I really didn't expect them to just roll over. Off the OT win in Game 3, I liked their momentum for Game 4. However, we're back at Oracle now and I expect the champs to remind everyone that they're still the best in the West. The Rockets are 23-22 away from Houston. The Warriors are 31-13 at home. The Warriors are 3-1 ATS their last four, when tied in a playoff series. They're also 5-2 ATS their last seven (6-1 SU) when playing with double-revenge - 2 straight losses against the same opponent. Expect a statement victory.
|05-08-19||Twins v. Blue Jays +1.5||Top||9-1||Loss||-148||21 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing TORONTO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I expect the Jays to win this one outright, I also feel that the extra +1.5 runs could well come in handy. The Jays, who have yet to score a run in the series, have not given Thornton much run support and a 1-run game wouldn't surprise. (Each of Thornton's last three starts - and five of seven overall - have been decided by a single run.) For his part, however, Thornton is coming off an absolute gem. In fact, he only allowed one hit through seven shutout innings. Gibson went just five innings in taking a loss last time out. In three career starts at Toronto, he's got an ugly 7.56 ERA. He was taken deep at least once in all three of those. The Jays are 18-11 (+7.3) vs the money-line, the past 2+ seasons, after scoring two runs or less in b2b games. That includes an 8-2 mark after scoring one or less in b2b games. Expect AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'
|05-04-19||Warriors v. Rockets -3.5||Top||121-126||Win||100||78 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Rockets played the Warriors tough at Oracle, losing by four and six points. Back on their home floor, desperate for a win, I expect them to break through with a win and cover. While the Warriors are an excellent 30-14 on the road, the Rockets are an even better 34-10 at home. The Warriors haven't missed Cousins yet but I expect his absence to be felt here. The Rockets beat the Jazz by 59 combined points in the three games here in the first round. While they've now lost their last three against the champs, the Rockets are 5-1 SU/ATS their last six, when facing a team which has defeated them in the previous three meetings. They're 8-1-1 ATS (9-1 SU) when playing with double-revenge, going 25-10-2 ATS (30-7 SU) in that situation the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to elevate their level of play en route to a critical win and cover.
|05-03-19||Bucks +2 v. Celtics||Top||123-116||Win||100||31 h 41 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I won with the Bucks in Game 2 (after nailing the Under in Game 1) and I'm coming right back with them again on Friday. While the Celtics are surely happy to be home, the Bucks have no problem playing on the road. In fact, they're 29-14 (26-15-2 ATS) when playing away from Milwaukee. The Bucks have no problem playing here at Boston, either. Their last visit here resulted in a 120-107 victory. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS as road underdogs. The Celtics, who got blown out in Game 2, are just 5-15 ATS when off a road loss. That includes a 1-6 ATS mark when off a double-digit road loss. The Bucks made the necessary adjustments after the opener and Antetokounmpo returned to his usual self (29/10) in Game 2. The Celtics aren't going to have any answer for him here. I'll grab the points but expect the Bucks to win outright.
|04-30-19||Celtics v. Bucks -7||Top||102-123||Win||100||51 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. While I won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series, I'm backing the Bucks in Game 2. The Celtics did an excellent job of slowing down Antetokounmpo in the opener. Obviously, that was great for me. Don't expect the Greek Freak to stay silent though. Giannis has been a monster all year and is off a first round series which saw him average 26.3 ppg and 12 rebounds, while also adding 3.5 assists and 1.5 blocks. Those stats would have even been better if the Bucks didn't win those games by such a wide margin. The Bucks have been amazing at bouncing back from losses all season long. They're 21-1 SU and 18-4 ATS off a loss. The only time that they lost two in a row all season was when they were right at the end of a road trip. That includes a 5-0 ATS record when off a double-digit loss and a 15-3 ATS mark when off an upset loss overall. With the Celtics just 7-13 ATS after playing two or more consecutive road games, look for Giannis and the Bucks to make the necessary adjustments, leading them to a convincing win and cover for Game 2.
|04-29-19||76ers +6.5 v. Raptors||Top||94-89||Win||100||33 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I'm well aware that the Raptors have historically fared very well at home against the 76ers. However, thats not enough to prevent me from backing Philly in Game 2. The 76ers have arguably as much talent as any team in the league. After dropping Game 1, I expect their stars to rise to the occasion here. The 76ers also dropped Game 1 of their opening series. They won Game 2 by more than 20, putting up a whopping 145 points. Even with their victory on Saturday, the Raptors are still just 2-6-1 ATS (1-8 SU!) their last nine second round playoff games. While the Raptors are 4-7 ATS off a divisional win and 2-5 ATS off a home divisional win, the 76ers are 8-1 ATS their last nine off a divisional loss, a perfect 5-0 ATS off a divisonal road loss. While an outright upset won't surprise, I'm grabbing the points!
|04-24-19||Clippers v. Warriors -14||Top||129-121||Loss||-105||59 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Since the Clippers came back to shock them in Game 2, the champs have been on a mission. They won Game 3 and Game 4 by a combined 35 points. With a chance to close out the series here, I expect them to be all business right from the opening tip. Despite blowing the cover in Game 4, the Warriors remain a dominant 29-12 ATS (30-11 SU) their last 41 first round playoff games. In other words, when they win in the first round, they almost always cover. The Clippers are just 6-10 ATS off a home loss. Going back further finds them at an ugly 19-29 ATS in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. The Warriors won Game 1 here by 17. Before their meltdown in Game 2, they were on pace for another decisive win and cover. That meltdown will ensure that they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. Expect them to advance to the next round in blowout fashion.
|04-22-19||Bucks v. Pistons +12||Top||127-104||Loss||-103||25 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT. Needless to say, Milwaukee has dominated this series. That said, I don't expect Detroit to just quit and feel that this line is too high. Down 3-0, we saw the Pacers battle until the end against Boston yesterday. The Celtics won by four. The Pistons will also fight hard the entire way. The Pistons are still 26-16 on this floor, not much different from Milwaukee's 28-14 road record. Griffin returned in Game 3 and played well; he just didn't get much help. Coach Casey commented: "That young man is giving us everything he has. He said he was feeling good. I was concerned about his conditioning with as much time as he's missed. You can't really simulate 5-on-5 basketball when you're rehabbing. But he came in and gave us what he could. He just has a presence that we can't replicate." While the Bucks did win the last one here by 16, the two regular season games here were decided by 10 and three points. Expect this one to be closer, the Pistons not making it easy and ultimately covering the generous number.
|04-20-19||Rockets v. Jazz -3||Top||104-101||Loss||-103||57 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on UTAH. After dropping both games at Houston, the Jazz have now lost four of their last five overall. However, a closer look reveals that all four of those losses came on the road. The lone home game resulted in a double-digit win over Denver. Indeed, this team is much better on its home floor. While the Rockets are 22-19 on the road, the Jazz are 29-12 at home. Note that they're also 5-1 SU/ATS after having lost four of their previous five. Both Utah's losses at Houston came by 20 or more points. Thats only happened twice the past 2+ seasons, situations where the Jazz were off b2b losses of 20 or more. In both cases, they won and covered their next one. Overall, they're 11-6 ATS off b2b road losses. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Saturday.
|04-19-19||Blazers v. Thunder -7||Top||108-120||Win||100||61 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on OKC. The Blazers took both games at Portland. Playing at home, desperate for a win, I expect the Thunder to respond with their best effort in Game 3. Note that they're 4-1 ATS their last five, when off b2b losses against a divisional opponent. While the Blazers are very tough to beat at home, they're mediocre on the road. They're also 1-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +6.5 +12 range. The Thunder are 27-14 at home. They won both regular season meetings here. Scores were 120-111 and 123-114. When Nurkic went down a few weeks ago, it was a big blow to the Blazers, as he'd been playing great. To their credit, the Blazers haven't missed a beat. Kanter has proven to be a key pickup. That said, I feel that the Nurkic loss will eventually catch up with them and I say that happens here. Expect Adams to get the better of Kanter, his former teammate, the rest of the Thunder digging deep and improving to 11-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games.
|04-16-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5||Top||105-114||Win||100||56 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER. The Spurs scored the upset in Game 1. Don't expect it to happen again here. The Nuggets remain a dominant 34-8 here at home. The Spurs are still 17-25 on the road. The Nuggets, 7-1 SU when playing with two day's rest in between games, are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS after failing to cover in three or more in a row. Jokic is unstoppable. Though he got a triple-double in Game 1, he was often getting double-teamed and forced to pass. It didn't help that the Nuggets as a team shot terribly from the outside, hitting 21% from beyond the arc. Thats not going to happen again though; they normally hit 35% of their 3-point shots. They normally average 113.7 ppg here. (The Spurs normally allow 113.6 ppg on the road.) If and when they double-team Jokic, he'll continue to find the open man and the Nuggets will start connecting. They beat the Spurs by a score of 113-85 here a couple of weeks ago, hitting 36.4% of their shots from outside in that one. They're 11-5 ATS as home favorites of six points or less. I'm expecting a double-digit win.
|04-15-19||Nets v. 76ers -7.5||Top||123-145||Win||100||34 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Off their Game 1 loss, expect the 76ers to be all business in Game 2. While the Nets are still 20-22 on the road, the 76ers are 31-11 at home. Even off the Game 1 loss, the 76ers are 16-3 SU and 12-7 ATS when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. They're still 4-2 ATS their last six first round playoff games. The Nets have already accomplished what they wanted, stealing a game on the road. The 76ers have bounced back and earned a double-digit win off each of their last two defeats. Expect more of the same on Monday.
|04-14-19||Pistons +13 v. Bucks||Top||86-121||Loss||-105||25 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT. The Pistons closed out the reg. season by beating Memphis in their home finale and then hammering the Knicks, at MSG, in their road finale. That's noteworthy as they're 10-4 ATS off a road win and 4-1 ATS off a double-digit road win, a perfect 3-0 ATS when off a road win by 20 or more. The Bucks did indeed win all the regular season meetings. However, none of those lines were nearly as large as this one. Note that two of the games were decided by 10 or less. Note that the Pistons are also 7-3 ATS when facing a team which defeated them in three or more straight meetings. The Bucks are just 3-11-1 ATS the past 15 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. A look at Milwaukee's last seven games shows a 4-3 record with all four wins coming by 10 or less. I'm grabbing the points.
|04-13-19||Clippers v. Warriors -12.5||Top||104-121||Win||100||53 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs coasted through the regular season but I expect them to be all business now that the playoffs are here. While they rested regulars down the stretch, the Warriors are healthy. It took awhile but Cousins finally got rolling towards the end of the season. Adding him to the mix, to go along with Curry, Durant, Thompson, Green and co. give them an element - a center who can contribute offensively - that they never really had before. Looking back over the years finds that the Warriors are 27-10 ATS in the first round of the playoffs and 13-7-1 ATS in the first game of a playoff series. The Warriors beat the Clippers by 27 points less than a week ago. I'm expecting them to start the series with another convincing victory.
|04-08-19||Texas Tech v. Virginia -1||Top||77-85||Win||100||33 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Cavs have been winning but not covering. Thats got the line down a lot from what it would have been, to the point where a win will now very likely also result in a cover. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Note that the Cavs are 78-12 SU their last 90 as favorites while the Red Raiders are 10-17 SU their last 27 as underdogs. Many will only remember that the Cavs needed to hit three free throws in the final second to advance. They'll forget that they played a great game until the final five minutes though. I believe the close wins are going to serve them well here. While the Red Raiders are on a great run, they haven't faced a defense like the one they'll face here. After last year's first round debacle, the Cavs come all the way back and win the title.
|04-07-19||Nuggets v. Blazers -3||Top||108-115||Win||100||13 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND. These teams just met at Denver a couple of days ago. The Nuggets won that one, which clinched the division title for them. That was a pretty huge accomplishment for them and should have them in letdown mode here. The fact that Jokic (and potentially others) are getting the night off is huge. Murray and/or Millsap may also get the night off. Note that those three players had a combined 70 points and 24 boards on Friday. Unlike the Nuggets, the Blazers still need wins, in order to help secure homecourt advantage. The revenge-minded Blazers are 4-1 ATS their last five, when off a division road loss. Expect them to get some payback tonight.
|04-07-19||Blue Jays +1.5 v. Indians||Top||1-3||Loss||-145||16 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing TORONTO on the run-line (+1.5 runs.) With the Indians favored by quite a bit on the money-line, we're able to get an extra +1.5 runs with the Jays for a relatively reasonable price. Thats where I feel the value lies in this one. Stroman may be 0-2 but he's pitched very well. Through two starts, he's got a 1.42 ERA. (The Jays lost 2-0 and 2-1.) Stroman has made three starts vs. Cleveland since 2017. The Jays won two of them and the other was a 1-run loss. In fact, only one of his six starts vs. the Indians has resulted in a loss by greater than a run, a 4-2 game in 2016. On the other hand, the Clevinger's teams are 0-2 against Toronto, including an 8-4 loss against Stroman. In a game where runs figure to be at a premium and with the Jays hungry to avoid getting swept, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs.
|04-06-19||Dodgers v. Rockies +1.5||Top||7-2||Loss||-123||25 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing COLORADO on the run-line (+1.5 runs). Given the current form of the starters, getting an extra +1.5 runs with the Rockies at this price, is a steal. While he got stuck with a loss for his efforts, Gray did some impressive things in his opening start. He mixed in all of his pitches and recorded 10 K's through 6 2/3 innings. That's more than can be said for Buehler. He ended up allowing five earned runs through just three complete innings, failing to strike out a single batter. That translates to a 15.00 ERA and 2.50 WHIP. Not entirely his fault, perhaps, as he worked very limited innings (2.2) in the spring. Either way, he didn't nearly as good as Gray. While I expect the Rockies to win outright, I'll happily grab the extra +1.5 insurance runs.
|04-06-19||Auburn v. Virginia -5.5||Top||62-63||Loss||-110||144 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. With wins over Kansas, UNC and Kentucky, Auburn has certainly taken down some giants, winning a lot of fans in the process. The Tigers haven't faced a team like this one though and I absolutely expect their magical run to come to an end. Auburn, of course, wants to keep going. However, the Tigers have already achieved more than they could have dreamed. The tournament is a success for them, no matter what happens here. Virginia, on the other hand, will not be at all satisfied if it doesnt win this game. While one could argue that puts more pressure on the Cavs, in my opinion, its going to make them that much more focused. There's no letdown for them. This is a team on a mission, out to completely wipe last year's first round debacle from the record books. The Cavs allow just 55 ppg. Before going to OT vs. Purdue, they'd held all three tournament opponents to 56 or fewer points. Expect their dominant defense to be the difference, the Cavs punching their ticket to the Finals while providing us the cover along the way.
|03-31-19||Blue Jackets v. Sabres +1.5||Top||4-0||Loss||-150||8 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing BUFFALO on the puck-line (+1.5 goals) Both teams played yesterday. I expect that to favor the home team in this one. Note that the Sabres beat the Blues, the last time that they played a home game, after playing the previous day. Six of their last 13, when playing the second of b2b games, have been decided by a single goal. Also, note that Columbus is just 5-9 when playing the second of b2b games. That includes a 2-4 mark their last six in that situation, three of those decided by a single goal. Speaking of 1-goal games, both of this season's meetings have been decided by a single goal. Expect AT LEAST another "puck-line cover" for the home team in this one.
|03-31-19||Michigan State v. Duke -2||Top||68-67||Loss||-107||11 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on DUKE. The Blue Devils may be a little fortunate to be here but that doesn't mean that they're not a dominant team. Duke beat MSU by seven in 2017 and by nine in 2016. You might be surprised to learn that the Spartans are just 11-23 ATS their last 34 as underdogs of three points or less, when playing away from home. Duke is a perfect 10-0 SU (7-3 ATS) this season, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 150s. The Blue Devils are also 30-4 SU when favored this season. Expect the combination of Williamson and Barrett to prove to be too much for the Spartans, the Blue Devils improving on those stats while covering the small number along the way.
|03-29-19||Virginia Tech v. Duke -7.5||Top||73-75||Loss||-103||109 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on DUKE. If you watched Duke's last game, or at least caught the highlights of the final few seconds, you'll know that the Blue Devils could easily have been knocked out. They were indeed fortunate to survive. However, they did survive - and that near-tournament-death experience will serve them well here. Duke teams are always talented. This one is ultra-talented. The Hokies got a fortunate draw as they faced Liberty last round. Even that wasn't easy, as they trailed at halftime. Its true that the Hokies upset the Blue Devils less than a month ago. However, that was at Blacksburg and the Blue Devils were without Zion Williamson. The Hokies and their fans think they can beat Duke again. I think they're wrong. Having survived the UCF game and given new life, look for the Blue Devils to avenge last month's loss, providing us the the cover along the way.
|03-27-19||Wizards v. Suns +2||Top||124-121||Loss||-110||16 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Wizards won a wild 149-146 affair at Washington in late December. Schedule and venue in their favor, I expect the Suns to return the favor tonight. While the Wizards are off a loss at LA last night, the Suns had the day off. While the Suns got blown out last time out, they're still a healthy 8-4 ATS their last 12 games. The Wizards have now dropped five straight, failing to cover in four of those. With last night's loss, the Wizards are now 9-21-1 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater, 3-9-1 ATS (1-12 SU!) when playing a road game with an O/U line of 230 or more. They're also just 3-7 ATS as road favorites. Expect the Suns to bounce back, improving to 3-1 ATS when off a blowout loss of 30 or more points.
|03-26-19||Florida International +4 v. Green Bay||Top||68-98||Loss||-110||11 h 23 m||Show|
I'm playing on FIU. The Phoenix may have homecourt advantage but the Panthers have other advantages that more than make up for it. FIU scores more points and allows less. The Panthers also force a lot of turnovers. In fact, they led all of Division 1 with 10.6 steals per game. The Panthers, who have won six of eight overall, were 11-6 ATS as underdogs this season. Going back further finds them at 21-11 ATS the past few seasons, when getting points on the road. This is going to be a very high-scoring game, as both teams score a lot and both allow a lot. In fact, the O/U line is curently 176.5 or 177, as I write this. Thats noteworthy as the Phoenix are 0-5 ATS the past few seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line of 170 or higher. I'm grabbing the points.
|03-26-19||Magic v. Heat -5.5||Top||104-99||Loss||-110||23 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI. The Magic won the first two meetings, the Heat taking the third. Schedule and venue in their favor, I expect the Heat to also take this one. While the Magic are off a home win vs the 76ers last night, the Heat are well-rested. The last time that the Magic played on the road, after playing the previous day, they lost by 14, at Cleveland. Note that the Heat are 7-4-1 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Heat, who knocked off Washington as a slight underdog last time out, have won four of five overall and nine of their past 12. They're also 12-4-1 ATS when off an 'upset' win. While the Magic deserve some credit for staying in the playoff race, expect the Heat to deliver a serious blow to their chances this evening, providing us the cover along the way.
|03-24-19||Iowa v. Tennessee -8||Top||77-83||Loss||-105||26 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Vols got tested for awhile in their opener. However, they pulled away when it mattered. Having had their "wake-up call," I expect Schofield and co. to flex their muscles and to deliver a double-digit win vs. an over-matched Iowa team. The Hawkeyes managed an upset of Cincinnati in the opener. However, Tennessee is in an entirely different class. Even with the win over the Bearcats, Iowa is still just 19-27-3 ATS as an underdog, the past 2+ seasons. During the same span, the Vols are 2-0 as neutral court favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Having failed to cover in either of their last two games, note that the Vols are a lucrative 12-7 ATS the past 19 times that they were off b2b games, where they'd failed to cover the spread. The Vols are better on both sides of the ball; they score more and allow less. Expect a double-digit win.
|03-23-19||Florida v. Michigan -7||Top||49-64||Win||100||30 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on Michigan. The Big 10 has looked pretty strong thus far and the Wolverines have looked as good as any from that conference. They cruised to a 74-55 victory over Montana on Thursday. I expect another convincing win on Saturday. The Gators may have scored a minor upset against Nevada. However, they've still lost four of seven overall and they're still just 9-15-1 ATS their past 25, against when listed as underdogs. They won't be used to the type of defense; the Wolverines allow 54.5 ppg against non-conf. opponents.The Wolverines are a dominant 20-7-1 ATS their last 28 on a neutral court. They're also 14-7 ATS their last 20 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 120s. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win.
|03-22-19||Washington +3 v. Utah State||Top||78-61||Win||100||51 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Perhaps its due to the blowout loss to Oregon, but the Huskies sure aren't getting much respect here. This is a team which won the Pac-12 regular season. The Huskies are also a team which hasn't lost two in a row this entire season, a perfect 7-0 when coming off a loss. While the Aggies are indeed on a roll and off b2b ATS wins, they're just 8-13 ATS the past 21 times that they'd covered the spread in two or more consecutive games. Utah State over-achieved this season. Though the Aggies do a lot of good things, they struggle at defending the perimeter and they also aren't very good at forcing turnovers. Those weaknesses haven't hurt them against weaker competition but I expect them to make the difference here. Expect the Huskies to score the upset in this one.
|03-21-19||Abilene Christian v. Kentucky -21||Top||44-79||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* PERS FAV). If you're looking for an upset, look elsewhere. This one's going to be a destruction. Off its loss to Tennessee, Kentucky is going to be all business here. The Cats are 2-1 ATS (3-0 SU) off a conference loss by six or fewer points. With an O/U line in the low 130s, note that Kentucky is also 9-5 ATS its last 14, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. As for Abilene Christian, they're 3-8 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Stats aside, the (Kentucky) Wildcats are bigger, stronger, faster and just plain better. Abilene coach Joe Golding had this to say: "We could play Kentucky, I don't know, man, 10,000 times, we might win once ... " Not tonight. Expect Kentucky to pull away for a decisive win.
|03-20-19||Arizona State v. St. John's +1.5||Top||74-65||Loss||-115||59 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing on ST. JOHN'S (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Sun Devils won when these teams met at the Staples Center last season, during the Basketball Hall Of Fame Classic. However, that was a season when the Sun Devils got off to a 12-0 start. I really like the Red Storm in Wednesday's rematch. With five players averaging in double-figures in scoring, the Red Storm are built for tournament play. These teams had a pair of common opponents, Cal and Princeton. Both of them beat Cal. However, while the Red Storm easily handled Princeton, the Tigers came into Tempe and defeated the Sun Devils. St. John's Shamorie Ponds scored 19 in last season's game and he's even better now. Even with last season's result, the Sun Devils are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 against teams from the Big East. Expect the Red Storm to take this one.
|03-18-19||Pistons v. Cavs +6.5||Top||119-126||Win||100||13 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BEST BET). The Cavs are playing with "triple-revenge" in this one, having lost each of this season's three meetings. Earlier this month, the Pistons embarrassed them here. That should help provide them with some added motivation for this one. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to get some payback here. While the Cavs had Sunday off, the Pistons are off a hard fought win vs. the Raptors. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they were destroyed by a 103-7 margin. Including that result, they're just 15-26 SU the past 2+ seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. While the Pistons have been solid at home, they're just 13-20 on the road. The Cavs are 3-2 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 4-2 ATS when attempting to avenge two or more double-digit losses. They're also 8-5-2 ATS when attempting to avenge a double-digit home loss. Grab the points.
|03-16-19||Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion -1||Top||56-62||Win||100||25 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on OLD DOMINION (10* GAME OF WEEK). One could make a case that the Hilltoppers have looked better in the tournament, thus far. They won both their games by double-digits. Meanwhile, the Monarchs won their two games by just three combined points. However, being involved in close games - and winning them - often serves teams well. I expect that to be the case here. ODU already won both regular season meetings, another pair of close victories. This is an ODU team which keeps grinding and finds a way to win. CUSA Player Of The Year BJ Stith had this to say: “We never give up. If there's time on the clock, we're still fighting." The Monarchs allow the fewest points in the conference. Expect their superior defense, "never say die" mentality and ability to win the close ones to prove the difference, as they punch their ticket to the Big Dance for the first time since 2011.
|03-15-19||Colorado v. Washington -1.5||Top||61-66||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* PERS FAV). The Huskies won both regular season meetings and I expect them to complete the sweep this evening. While they may have only won by three against USC yesterday, the Huskies did a lot of impressive things, including registering a season-high in both assists and 3-pointers. The close victory will serve them well here. While the shooters are getting hot at the right time, its the Washington defense which carried them to the Pac-12 reg. season title. Their 64 ppg allowed on defense ranks 26th in the nation. While both teams played yesterday, the Buffaloes also played the previous day. Though they won big last night, playing three games in three days will catch up with tonight. The Huskies have failed to cover five straight for the first time this season. They're 2-0 ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons and 7-3 ATS the past 10 times that they were in that situation. Expect them to advance, covering the small number along the way.
|03-14-19||North Texas +2.5 v. Western Kentucky||Top||51-67||Loss||-110||11 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* BEST BET). I won with UNT yesterday and am coming right back with them. Here's an excerpt from yesterday's writeup, which I've included as it applies here: "...The Panthers took both regular season meetings and check in as the higher seed. Expect the Mean Green to win when it counts most. North Texas has a lineup of seniors who aren't yet ready to see their collegiate careers come to an end. Gibson, Miller, Simmons and Duffy, all seniors, score nearly 60% of UNT's points. However, its on the defensive side of the ball where the Mean Green really have an edge. North Texas allows 63 ppg while the Panthers allow 80 ppg. Needless to say, thats a huge difference. While the Panthers may be considered the home team, this game is being played in Frisco Texas, providing a significant edge to North Texas .The Mean Green are 5-2 ATS their last seven tournament games. Expect them to come through with a big win and to improve on those stats this evening." I like the fact that North Texas played yesterday while Western Kentucky hasn't played in a week. The last two meetings were close - WKU won by three this season and in OT last season. Once again, expect the Mean Green seniors to come through when it counts.
|03-13-19||North Texas -1 v. Florida International||Top||71-57||Win||100||12 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* VIOLATOR). The Panthers took both regular season meetings and check in as the higher seed. Expect the Mean Green to win when it counts most. North Texas has a lineup of seniors who aren't yet ready to see their collegiate careers come to an end. Gibson, Miller, Simmons and Duffy, all seniors, score nearly 60% of UNT's points. However, its on the defensive side of the ball where the Mean Green really have an edge. North Texas allows 63 ppg while the Panthers allow 80 ppg. Needless to say, thats a huge difference. While the Panthers may be considered the home team, this game is being played in Frisco Texas, providing a significant edge to North Texas .The Mean Green are 5-2 ATS their last seven tournament games. Expect them to come through with a big win and to improve on those stats this evening.
|03-12-19||Cavs v. 76ers -14||Top||99-106||Loss||-105||10 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* VIOLATOR). The Cavs scored a major upset over the Raptors last night. On the road, playing their second game in two days, expect them to get blown out this evening. While the big points may seem tempting, consider that Cleveland is just 4-9-1 ATS (2-12 SU) as a road underdog of greater than 12 points. One of those wins came here back in November. The 76ers were laying -13 and lost outright. They've already avenged that loss by crushing the Cavs at Cleveland. However, they still haven't forgotten and they aren't about to take them lightly again. Sure, Butler is getting the night off. However, this team is stacked without him. Off b2b road losses, the 76ers bounced back with a 17-point home win over the Pacers. Note that they're 9-4 ATS after having lost two of their previous three. Schedule, talent and venue in their favor, expect nothing less than a destruction.
|03-11-19||Hornets +9 v. Rockets||Top||106-118||Loss||-113||12 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* BEST BET). The schedule favors the visitors in this one. While the Hornets had Sunday off, the Rockets were busy eking out a win, at Dallas. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they won by only three points, as a -9 point favorite. That also happened to be as situation where they were playing a home game, after playing a road game the previous day. Note that the Rockets are only 11-14-1 ATS against Eastern Conf. teams including 1-6-1 ATS against teams from the Southeast. While they know winning here won't be easy, the Hornets also know that they desperately need victories. Expect their best effort tonight, en route to AT LEAST an ATS win.
|03-11-19||Ball State v. Eastern Michigan -3||Top||61-43||Loss||-108||10 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN (10* PERS FAV). Expected to be one of the better teams in the MAC, Ball State really underperformed this season. While the tournament offers a fresh start, its not always easy to just suddenly turn things around. Indeed, the Cardinals have dropped five of their last six overall and are a dismal 0-7 ATS their last seven. Coach James Whitford had this to say: "We've gone on a rally in a bad way. We can't seem to turn it around." The Eagles are 3-0 ATS their last three and they swept the season series. James Thompson IV was unstoppable in the wins over Ball State. This is an EMU team which brought back most of its top players from last year and which is coming in with confidence. They say its difficult to beat a team three times. Expect it to happen here.
|03-10-19||Suns v. Warriors -17||Top||115-111||Loss||-109||11 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* PERS FAV). While this line may seem high to some, consider that the Warriors were laying -17 points in the last meeting and that was at Phoenix. The Suns, 13-19 ATS a road underdog, have just one win in 10 tries, when playing the second of b2b games. While they were playing Portland tough last night, the champs were resting. Note that the Suns are just 3-9 ATS when the O/U line was 230 or greater, 1-3 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 230 or more. Going back a bit further, they're just 1-7-1 ATS (1-8 SU) their past nine in that situation. They just don't have the firepower to keep up with a high-scoring team for an entire game, particularly on the road. The Warriors are 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) as home favorites of greater than a dozen points. They won by 20 in the earlier meeting here and I expect them to win by at least that many again tonight.
|03-10-19||Wisconsin v. Ohio State +4||Top||73-67||Loss||-110||6 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on OHIO STATE (10* BEST BET). Off b2b road losses, I expect the Buckeys to bounce back with a big performance here. They're 2-0 SU/ATS off a game where they scored 50 or less. Going back further finds them at 14-8 ATS in that situation. While the Badgers are indeed a strong defensive team, note that the Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS their last 13 against teams which allow 64 or fewer points per game. With an O/U line in the low-mid 120's, its also worth mentioning that Wisconsin is just 3-7 ATS (4-6 SU) the past 10 times that it played a road game with an O/U line in the 120s. Expect AT LEAST a 'cover' for the highly motivated home side with a great shot at the outright win.
|03-09-19||Hawaii v. CS-Fullerton -3||Top||71-59||Loss||-115||26 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAL STATE FULLERTON (10* CBB GOY). The Warriors won 79-68 when these teams met at Hawaii earlier this season. Playing at home, expect the Titans to exact some revenge Saturday evening. In the earlier meeting, Hawaii connected on 11 3-point shots while CS Fullerton made just four. That disparity isn't likely to happen again. The Warriors are playing their second straight on the road. Since the earlier meeting between these teams, this will mark the fourth time that Hawaii has played two consecutive road games. In all three previous cases, they lost (both SU and ATS) when playing their second straight on the road. Note that the Warriors are also 0-2 SU/ATS when off a conference road win. The Titans are playing much better than they were when these teams met earlier. They've won 10 of their last 13 and five of their last seven. They're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. It all adds up to "Payback Time" on Saturday night. Lay the small number.
|03-08-19||Wizards v. Hornets -4.5||Top||111-112||Loss||-110||26 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* ANNIHILATOR). This is essentially a must win game for the Hornets. They've dropped two straight and have fallen out of the top eight. In other words, if the playoffs started today, they wouldn't be playing. Unlike the Wizards, who are two games further behind and are facing even more improbable odds, the Hornets still have a glimmer of hope of getting back in it. They absolutely need to win here though, as their next four games are on the road, one of those coming against these very same Wizards. I expect them to rise to the occasion and for them to deliver their best effort. While the Wizards are a dismal 9-25 (9-24-1 ATS!) on the road, the Hornets are a respectable 20-14 at home. The home team has already won and covered both meetings in the season series, the Hornets winning by 13 here at Charlotte. More of the same Friday.
|03-07-19||South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina -6||Top||70-92||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on COASTAL CAROLINA (10* PERS FAV). The Jaguars won when these teams met at South Alabama back in January. Playing at home, I expect the Chanticleers to exact some revenge. Note that the Chanticleers are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. As of this writing, the O/U line sits at 147, at most shops. Thats noteworthy as the Chanticleers are a profitable 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range, 2-0 SU/ATS this season. After having dropped five of their previous six, both SU and ATS, the Chanticleers got back on track last time out, winning outright at LA Monroe. They're 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 off a SU victory. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evennig's game, picking up the cover along the way.
|03-06-19||LSU v. Florida +1||Top||79-78||Push||0||11 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on FLORIDA (10* BEST BET). The Gators won (in OT) at LSU in this season's earlier meeting. Playing their regular season home finale, I expect the Gators to complete the regular season sweep. While the Gators were upset last time out, they'd previously won five straight. While many will assume the Tigers are going to be the hungrier team, due to the fact that they're in a battle for first and playing with revenge, the Gators are also going to be extremely motivated. They absolutely want to close out the season strong and know they can potentially still improve by a few spots. Note that LSU is 0-6 SU/ATS the past six times that it attempted to avenge a loss in which is was favored. While the Gators have had trouble covering big numbers here, we don't have to worry about that here. They're 31-11 on this floor the past few seasons and I expect them to improve on those stats this evening.
|03-05-19||Blazers v. Grizzlies +5.5||Top||111-120||Win||100||11 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on MEMPHIS (10* BEST BET). I believe that the Grizzlies are catching the Blazers at the right time. True, Portland has been red hot. However, this will mark the final game of a 7-game road trip. With a huge divisional showdown vs. OKC, a team they are currently tied with, I believe it will be easy for the Blazers to look ahead to the return trip home. The home team has won and covered both meetings in the season series. Including their victory here at Memphis on 12/12, the Grizzlies are 9-4 ATS against Northwest division opponents. The Grizzlies have won two of their last four and the two losses came by just two and four points. Expect them to be at their best here.
|03-05-19||Xavier v. Butler -3.5||Top||66-71||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on BUTLER (10* VIOLATOR). The Musketeers won by a single point when these teams met at Xavier. Playing their regular season home finale and desperate to snap a 3-game slide, I expect the Bulldogs to rise to the occasion and exact some revenge. Even off a road win at St. Johns, who the Musketeers will also face next, Xavier is a mediocre 17-16 SU on the road the past couple of seasons. During the same span, Butler is 38-10 at home. During that span, Butler has only dropped three straight conference games three times. In all three cases, the Bulldogs won their next game, going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Expect them to once again stop the skid at three, covering the small number along the way.
|03-04-19||Clippers v. Lakers -4||Top||113-105||Loss||-109||15 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS (10* PERS FAV). Time is running out for the Lakers. They've lost four of five and desperately need a win here. I expect them to respond with their best effort. The Clippers have been excellent as favorites and covered in that role again yesterday. However, they are just 14-19 ATS as underdogs. Despite their overall problems, the Lakers remain a solid 9-3 ATS against divisional opponents. After losing to the lowly Suns last time out, note that the Lakers are 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a home loss against a divisional opponent, when favored by six or more. Expect them to play with desperation and improve on those stats here.
|03-04-19||Northern Arizona v. Montana -15||Top||64-66||Loss||-106||13 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on MONTANA (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Lumberjacks are off b2b losses and have now dropped six of their last eight. Things don't get easier here. The Grizzlies won by 16 last time out. They're playing their regular season home finale this evening and are going to be motivated to deliver another blowout. The Grizzlies already won by 13 at Northern Arizona this season and they won by 18 here in last season's meeting. In fact, the won both of last season's meetings by 18. Note that the Lumberjacks are 0-3-1 ATS (0-4 SU) the past four times that they tried to avenge a home loss, where the opposing team scored 85 or more, 1-7-1 ATS (1-8 SU) when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss overall. Expect this one to be one-sided, the Grizzlies winning by 18+ once again.
|03-03-19||Blazers v. Hornets +3||Top||118-108||Loss||-110||18 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* GAME OF WEEK). Tough spot for the West Coast based Blazers. They're off a close road loss at Toronto - they're already 0-2 SU/ATS when off a road loss by three of fewer points - and playing an early game, after having been on the road for an extended period. The Hornets are 3-1-1 ATS in five tries as a home underdog of six or fewer points. They're going to be motivated to avenge a 30+ point blowout loss at Portland. They're 10-4-1 ATS after having lost three of their previous four and I expect AT LEAST another cover on Sunday afternoon.
|03-02-19||Pelicans v. Nuggets -13||Top||120-112||Loss||-100||12 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* PERS FAV). Without Davis in the lineup, the Pelicans are going to really struggle at this difficult venue. The Nuggets hit the road after this. Off a loss against Utah last time out, they're going to be highly motivated to pick up a big win before the trip. While the Nuggets' number may seem big, note that they're a perfect 9-0 SU, covering the spread in seven of those, the past nine times that they were favorites if -12.5 or more points. The Nuggets won by 15, 16, 32 and 16 the past four times that they were a host of the Pelicans. Expect another blowout.
|03-02-19||Austin Peay v. Murray State -8.5||Top||83-94||Win||100||15 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on MURRAY STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). I really like how this one sets up for the Racers. Going for their ninth straight conf. victory, the Racers have a ton of positive momentum. On the other hand, Austin Peay is off a deflating 2-point loss against Eastern Kentucky, they type of defeat that can take the wind out of a team's sails. Six of the Racers' last seven wins, including four straight, have been by double-digits. The Racers already won a close one at Austin Peay on Valentine's Day. The last meeting here saw them win by 21, an 84-63 rout. The previous season's game here was a 102-58 destruction. Expect another double-digit win.
|03-02-19||LSU v. Alabama +1.5||Top||74-69||Loss||-108||16 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on ALABAMA (10* MAIN EVENT). LSU came through for me in last week's win against Tennessee. They'd follow it up by beating A&M by 11 points. However, now that they're on the road, I expect the Tigers to stumble. The Tide got back on track last weekend, snapping a 3-game skid with a win over Vanderbilt. They followed it up with a win and cover at South Carolina. Momentum back on their side, they understand what a huge and critical opportunity this is. A bubble team, a signature win in this game would do wonders for their tournament resume. LSU is an ugly 1-9-1 ATS its last 11, when off a double-digit conference win.
|03-01-19||Blazers v. Raptors -5||Top||117-119||Loss||-105||28 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO (10* MAIN EVENT). The Blazers have been on a nice roll but I expect it to come to an end this evening. The revenge-minded Raptors have more home wins (26) than any other team in the entire Eastern Conference. By comparison, even with their recent success away from Portland, the Blazers are still just 14-15 on the road. Here, the Blazers are nearing the end of a lengthy road trip and this will mark the ninth consecutive game in which they played at a different venue from their previous game. The Raptors were laying a similar number of points for last year's game here yet won in a blowout, 130-105. The Raptors are healthy, rested and they get tomorrow off. They're off a blowout of Boston and I expect them to continue their very strong homecourt play this evening.
|03-01-19||Columbia v. Brown -7||Top||80-77||Loss||-107||21 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on BROWN (10* IVY LEAGUE GAME OF YEAR). I won with Columbia last Friday; the Lions won outright as big underdogs at Penn. They were forced to go to OT in that game though and they followed it up by getting blown out at Princeton the following day. Now 7-17, they're playing their third straight on the road and at a venue where they tend to struggle. Indeed, the Lions are just 1-7 ATS their last eight visits here. The Bears, 2nd highest scoring team in the Ivy League, are having a strong year and they're currently on a roll. Expect them to complete the season sweep this afternoon, picking up the cover along the way.
|02-28-19||Arizona State v. Oregon -1.5||Top||51-79||Win||100||26 h 52 m||Show|
I’m playing on Oregon (10* GAME OF MONTH). It’s “revenge” time for the Ducks. Arizona State posted the 78-64 home win over Oregon in the first meeting this year. Arizona State earned a 69-59 home win over a poor Cal team last time out, while the Ducks come in off a 90-83 road loss to UCLA. Not only do the Ducks play with revenge, but I think they come in as unquestionably the “hungrier” team in this one after three straight losses, while ASU is complacent after three straight victories. The revenge angle works in this one. Lay the points, Ducks roll.
|02-27-19||Marquette v. Villanova -4.5||Top||61-67||Win||100||13 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing on VILLANOVA (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). This is a big game. The Golden Eagles currently have a 1.5 games lead over the Wildcats for the conference lead. Marquette has won four in a row and 12 of its last 13, but with a chance to close the gap, I think the hungry home side delivers the goods tonight. I think Villanova comes in razor focused here after a disastrous road trip which saw it lose all three games. But a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered as the Wildcats have won 13 straight there. It’s a perfect storm of situational factors working in favor of Villanova (additionally note that the Wildcats are 7-3 ATS this season after failing to cover in their previous outing). This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points, Villanova rolls.
|02-27-19||Pistons v. Spurs -4.5||Top||93-105||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
I’m playing on the SAN ANTONIO SPURS (10* PERS FAV). Detroit comes in having won three straight. The Pistons though have faced three Eastern conference opponents in the Pacers, Heat and Hawks. With the shift to the West Coast to face this desperate non-conference opponent, I believe the visitors have a typical “letdown” here. San Antonio comes in desperate after three straight losses to the Nets, Knicks and the Raptors to conclude an ugly annual Rodeo Road trip. San Antonio is struggling to find an identity still, but it’s now or never for the proud organization this season (note that the Spurs are 10-2 ATS this year as a home favorite of six points or less.) The situation and the trends are both working in favor of San Antonio in my opinion. Lay the points, Spurs roll.
|02-26-19||Thunder +3.5 v. Nuggets||Top||112-121||Loss||-110||27 h 54 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Oklahoma City Thunder (3* MAIN EVENT). Division battles are always the most important. The Thunder will be eager to return to form here after they were caught looking ahead to this one in their 119-116 home loss to the Kings on Saturday. The Nuggets come in off a 123-96 win over the Clippers on Sunday. Note though that the Thunder play with the added incentive of revenge today after dropping both previous meetings with the Nuggets this year. Note as well that OKC is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog this season and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 revenging a loss vs. an opponent. The Nuggets have been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this years, but note that they’re still just 3-5 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite. In a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points.
|02-26-19||Providence v. Butler -6||Top||73-67||Loss||-105||11 h 56 m||Show|
I’m playing on Butler (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). This is a big game. Both teams need a win here to keep their NCAA Tournament bids alive. I think that the home floor advantage can’t be understated as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. The Friars have now fallen into last place in the ten-team East after a 76-58 home loss to Marquette on Saturday. Providence has now lost six of its last eight games, managing to post 70 points just once in that span. Butler is coming off a 76-69 loss to Marquette last Wednesday. But as mentioned above, a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for the Bulldogs to get back on track as they’ve won their last two home games and they’re 4-3 at home in conference action. Finally note that the home team is 6-0 ATS the last six in this series. Lay the points, Butler rolls.
|02-25-19||Pacers v. Pistons -2.5||Top||109-113||Win||100||26 h 34 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Detroit Pistons (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). The Pacers come in off a 119-112 road win over Washington, while the Pistons posted a 119-96 road win over the Heat on Saturday. Detroit plays with revenge today though after the Pacers took the first matchup this year, 125-88 at home back on December 28th. With a chance to avenge that pathetic effort and to build off their latest victory, I’m expecting the Pistons to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Both teams have been red hot of late, but Detroit has the home floor advantage, and the revenge factor both clearly working in its favor today. I’ll also point out that the Pacers are just 7-9 ATS as a road dog this year, while the Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a blowout win by 15 points or more. Lay the points, Detroit rolls.
|02-25-19||Notre Dame +12.5 v. Florida State||Top||61-68||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME (10* MAIN EVENT). Outright win? Probably not. But Florida State comes in still “hung up” on its 77-59 loss to UNC last time out, a setback which snapped an eight-game win streak. The Irish come in as the much more focused team here as they’ll look to try and score the upset and off three straight losses to Virginia, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. I’m not going to try and tell you that FSU is an over-rated team, or that Notre Dame is better than what its record is currently. Because that’s not the case. I just think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the Irish. Notre Dame comes in under the radar here and the Seminoles also get caught looking ahead to NC State coming to town next. No outright victory, but I’m expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points, Irish roll.
|02-24-19||Magic +9.5 v. Raptors||Top||113-98||Win||100||22 h 7 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Orlando Magic (10* ANNIHILATOR). Toronto’s won seven in a row. The Raptors are playing at an extremely high level, but with the Celtics coming to town on Tuesday, there’s no question that this sets up as a look ahead spot for the home side. The Magic actually destroyed the Raptors 116-87 on December 28th and they come to town looking to get back to their winning ways after their five game win streak was snapped in a tight 110-109 loss to the Bulls last time out. With a game at the Knicks up next, the visitors can also put their full attention to this much more high-profile contest this evening. Note that Orlando is 5-1 ATS already this year after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games, while Toronto is just 3-5 ATS trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, Magic roll.
|02-24-19||Niagara v. St. Peter's -1.5||Top||60-78||Win||100||16 h 28 m||Show|
I’m playing on Saint Peters (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). Niagara comes in off a 97-81 loss to Rider and after dropping five of its last six, I think the Purple Eagles will have a difficult time here as well mustering much of an offensive attack. Saint Peters is moving in the opposite direction now, ending its losing streak with a 65-59 win over Marist as a 5.5 points underdog last time out. Niagara has been terrible in this spot as well, going 0-7 ATS in its last seven as a road dog of three points or less or pick. Saint Peters on the other hand has been fantastic in this spot, going 9-2 ATS in its last 11 off an upset win as an underdog. I’m expecting home floor to be a difference/advantage as well. Lay the points, Peacocks roll.
|02-23-19||Oregon v. UCLA -1.5||Top||83-90||Win||100||27 h 44 m||Show|
I’m playing on UCLA (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). Oregon was dumped 66-49 at USC last Thursday and I think the Ducks will struggle in this difficult road venue as well. UCLA rallied for a 68-67 home win over Oregon State last time out and I think it’ll build off that victory. This has been a difficult matchup for Oregon for a while and I believe that trend continues here (UCLA won the first meeting between the schools 87-84 in OT back on January 10th.) The Ducks have been great overall defensively this year (allowing 64.6 PPG), but their achilles heel has been their offense (only 69.5 PPG average. The Bruins are averaging 77.7 PPG and allowing 76.1.) I think Oregon struggles again to keep pace offensively this evening. Additionally note that the Bruins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while the Ducks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lay the points, UCLA rolls.
|02-23-19||Blazers v. 76ers -2||Top||130-115||Loss||-110||18 h 50 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Philadelphia 76ers (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). Portland came out of the All Star break and posted an impressive 113-99 road win over Brooklyn, but I think it’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue. The home side will be out to push the pace after a tougher than expected 106-102 home win over Miami on Thursday. The home side also plays with the added incentive of revenge this afternoon after falling 129-95 in the Pacific Northwest back on December 30th. Both teams can score and neither plays very hard on the defensive end, but I still think that the visitors are getting far too much respect in this spot. Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 following an ATS loss, while Portland is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. teams with winning home records. Lay the points, 76ers roll.
|02-22-19||Pistons v. Hawks +3.5||Top||125-122||Win||100||23 h 14 m||Show|
I’m playing on (10*) the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks lost to the Knicks in their final game before the break, while the Pistons won four of their final five. Detroit though lost its finale to the Pistons and I think it’ll come out “flat” here to open the second half as well. Both teams are hungry and for the most part both are rested. The advantage today for Atlanta comes via “the home floor,” and also the fact that Detroit is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine when playing with three or more days rest, while Atlanta is 8-2 ATS in its last ten off an upset loss by 15 points or more as the favorite. Grab the points, Hawks roll.
|02-22-19||Canisius v. Monmouth -3||Top||60-59||Loss||-108||12 h 53 m||Show|
I’m playing on Monmouth (10* VIOLATOR). Canisius enters off a 70-65 loss at home to Manhattan as a six points favorite most recently. The Golden Griffins three-game win streak was snapped in that one and I think the team is poised for another letdown here as well. Canisius has a target on its back tonight as it still holds the No. 1 sot in the conference. But Monmouth enters as the “hungrier” team here. After winning five straight, Monmouth comes in desperate to break a two-game slide, most recently a 75-67 loss to Marist as a 3.5 points home favorite. The Golden Griffins have struggled in this spot for bettors by going 5-9 ATS in their last 14 after a loss by six points or less. Monmouth on the other hand is already 3-1 ATS this year after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games. I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is what’s in store. Lay the points, Monmouth rolls.
|02-21-19||Oregon State v. UCLA -2||Top||67-68||Loss||-105||27 h 16 m||Show|
I’m playing on UCLA (10* VIOLATOR). Oregon State enters off a highly satisfying 72-57 home win over rival Oregon on Saturday, while UCLA comes in off a humbling 104-80 setback to Stanford in its most recent action. The Bruins play with the added incentive of “revenge” here after falling 79-66 at Oregon State last month. UCLA is the “hungrier” team here. Note that the Bruins have been much better at home as well, as they’ve averaged 85 points on their own floor over the last three games. The Bruins also enjoy a significant rebounding edge as well, averaging 41.5 boards per game compared to only 36.2 for the Beavers (despite losing the first game, UCLA did win the rebounding battle in that one.) UCLA is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 following a loss of 20 points or more, while Oregon State is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games following three or more consecutive home games. I look for the “hungrier” team to get the job done. Lay the points, Bruins roll.
|02-21-19||Kings v. Warriors -11.5||Top||123-125||Loss||-109||27 h 54 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Golden State Warriors (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). The Warriors dominated down the stretch, but they got blown out 129-107 on the road in Portland in their final game before the break, clearly getting caught looking ahead to the time off (starters were also rested.) Sacramento has been a “surprise” this year and it still has a chance at making the playoffs. The future is bright for the Kings, but the fact remains that they average 113.4 PPG, while allowing 114.6. Golden State on the other hand averages 118.8 PPG and it allows 111.7. The Kings are also only 8-13 ATS as a road underdog this season, while the Warriors are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 when playing with three or more days rest. Expect the defending champs to send a message to the rest of the league to open the second half. Lay the points, Warriors roll.
|02-20-19||Massachusetts v. George Washington +2||Top||67-79||Win||100||22 h 53 m||Show|
I’m playing on George Washington (10* BEST BET). Neither side instills much confidence. UMass is 9-16 and George Washington is 7-18. Both teams come in on horrible losing streaks. The Colonials have lost four straight, most recently to Duquesne, while the Minutemen are 2-11 in their last 13, suffering a heartbreaking OT loss to George Mason in their latest action. This has been a terrible matchup for UMass whenever its come to town though and I believe that trend carries over here. George Washington has won five straight in this series and it’s 22-9 all time at home vs. the Minutemen. UMass has lost eight straighten the road, averaging 62.8 points and conceding 70.6 in those contests. The Minutemen are also just 1-4 ATS in their last I’ve vs. teams with losing records. Add it all up, and I expect George Washington to find a way to get the job done. Play on the home side.
|02-19-19||St. Peter's +7.5 v. Siena||Top||62-72||Loss||-104||11 h 53 m||Show|
I’m playing on Saint Peters (10* BEST BET). Saint Peter’s closes out the regular season with two straight road games. Both will be tough and it’ll be the underdog in each. Including tonight vs. Siena. The Peacocks though won’t be lacking for motivation after dropping seven straight, most recently a 71-65 setback to Rider. The Peacocks have to be feeling confident here as well as they’d prevail 65-50 over the Saints at home in early January. Sienna is firmly in fifth spot (after being picked to finish 10th), but it comes in on terrible form, having dropped two straight at home. Saint Peters is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Siena is just 5-7 ATS at home and only 5-8 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, Peacocks roll.
|02-16-19||Washington v. Washington State +8.5||Top||72-70||Win||100||25 h 29 m||Show|
I’m playing on Washington State (10* REVENGE BEST OF BEST). UW destroyed WSU 85-67 in December, but that was then and this is now. The Cougars played without leading scorer Robert Franks in the first matchup this season, but he’s back in the line-up now (WSU lost all four games he missed in December.) Franks though comes in on top form and I think he’ll be an “X-factor” here as well in this revenge scenario. Ranks posted 34 points and 13 rebounds in a win over ASU last week, before then going off for 31 points and eight boards in a victory over Arizona. WSU lost both games to the Huskies last year as well, but Franks was a bright spot by averaging 19 points and 10.5 boards. UW on the other hand has been dealing with a flu bug, which led to mixed results last week. The Huskies have turned the ball over 52 times in their last three games, including 17 in their most recent setback to ASU. This one has “upset” written all over it, but I’m still going to grab the points. Grab the points, WSU rolls.
|02-16-19||Oilers +1.5 v. Islanders||Top||2-5||Loss||-160||26 h 36 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Edmonton Oilers PUCK LINE (10* PL GAME OF WEEK). I came up short with my play on the Oilers on the puck line last night, but Edmonton comes to Long Island as a desperate team and I believe it’ll keep this one close until the final moments. The Oilers are beyond hungry for a victory here after losing ten of their last 11. The Isles on the other hand get caught looking past their opponent after winning five of their last seven. New York also gets caught looking ahead to three whole nights off before going on a big West Coast Canadian road swing. I expect Edmonton to lay everything on the line here and to come away with a comfortable “cover” at the very least. Play on the Oilers puck line.
|02-15-19||Northern Kentucky +1 v. Wright State||Top||77-81||Loss||-115||25 h 28 m||Show|
I’m playing on Northern Kentucky (10* BEST BET). I like the 20-6 Northern Kentucky Norse to find a way to get the job done here vs. the 15-11 Wright Raiders on Friday night. UNK enters off a 79-64 home win over Oakland last time out, while Wright State also picked up a victory in its latest action, pulling away 83-60 over Detroit on Saturday. The Norse earned the tough 68-64 win in the first matchup between the schools at home back on January 11th and I expect a similar result here as well. This is an important game, as the Norse are in No. 1 in the Horizon League at 10-3, while Wright State is directly behind. But while the Raiders have been on a decent run over the last month, their numbers do match up well against the Norse. As we come down the stretch, I think UNK’s depth will prove to be the difference. Northern Kentucky averages 79.6 PPG an fit allows 67.3. Wright State averages 73.3 PPG and it allows 68.4. I like Northern Kentucky to continue its dominance in this series. Norse roll.
|02-14-19||Northern Colorado v. Idaho +11||Top||75-47||Loss||-110||30 h 46 m||Show|
I’m playing on Idaho (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). After back-to-back wins and victories in five of its last six, I think that Northern Colorado stumbles here. Well, has enough of a letdown anyways for the hungry home side to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. The Bears most recently held on for a 65-59 win over Sacramento State. On the season the Bears average 77.3 PPG. The Vandals only average 68.8, but after losing nine in a row, we definitely don’t have to question Idaho’s focus this evening. This is way too many points to be giving up, as Idaho just took Northern Colorado to OT in a loss just last month. The Vandals play with revenge and they’re desperate for a victory of any sorts. Northern Colorado runs out of gas on Thursday and the home side keeps it much closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points, Vandals roll.