|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-17-18||Kings v. Wolves -8||Top||105-132||Win||100||27 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams have met twice so far this season. Both meetings were at Sacramento. The Kings won both by double-digits. This evening, however, the T-Wolves have homecourt on their side. They've also got the schedule working in their favor. While Minneota had Sunday off, the Kings were busy playing at Dallas. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this will be the Kings' third game in the past four days. The last four times that the Kings played the second of b2b games? They went 0-4 SU/ATS. All four of those games resulted in double-digit losses, 107-97, 133-112, 132-112, 101-86. Expect more of the same here, a highly motivated Minnesota team pulling away for another double-digit win.
|12-14-18||Raptors v. Blazers +3.5||Top||122-128||Win||100||13 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (8* SHOCKER). Off a huge road win over the champs, I believe that the Raptors are going to be ripe for a letdown. Note that the Raptors are 5-9 ATS after scoring 110 or more in two more consecutive games. They'll be facing an angry and talented Portland team, one which hasn't lost a home game by more than four points all season. Not surprisingly, the Blazers are already 1-0 ATS as home underdogs (15-point win over the Bucks) this season; 11-7 ATS in that role the past couple of years. The Blazers haven't forgotten that the Raptors came in here and shut them down early last season, before blowing them out at Toronto. Its finally payback time!
|12-13-18||Eastern Washington v. San Francisco -18||Top||63-85||Win||100||16 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF. The Dons are rolling. Off their big win against Cal, expect them to carry the momentum into this evening's game against an outclassed Eagles team.
|12-12-18||Raptors v. Warriors -6.5||Top||113-93||Loss||-108||13 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Raptors beat a short-handed (no Curry) Warriors team, at Toronto, in OT. The game had been billed as a Finals Preview and the some of the fans reacted as if they'd won a finals game. Now healthier, playing at home and with the schedule in their favor, expect the revenge-minded champions to get some payback. Leonard was the hero for the Raptors in the first game. However, he didnt play last night. If he does go tonight, he may be less than 100%. Either way, the Warriors are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) the past eight times that they attempted to avenge a loss of three or fewer points and we can expect them to improve on those stats.
|12-12-18||Murray State v. Southern Illinois -3||Top||80-52||Loss||-109||13 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on SIU (10* GAME OF MONTH). This is a regional rivalry and its an important game for both teams. While the Racers are playing well, I expect homecourt and a stingy Southern Illinois defense to ultimately prove the difference. Murray State won by eight, as a 5-point favorite, at home, last season. However, SIU won by four, as a -2.5 point favorite, in the last meeting here. While the Racers may be 5-0 ATS through six games, they're just 1-1 SU in true road games and they're also only 2-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, after covering the spread in four or five of their previous six games. The Salukis have thrived as small home favorites in recent seasons and come in confident; they're off five straight wins, the last three of which they were favored for. They're 4-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, after having been favored in three straight. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|12-10-18||CS-Fullerton +12.5 v. St. Mary's||Top||66-81||Loss||-110||28 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAL STATE FULLERTON (10* MASTERPIECE). In my opinion, the gap between these teams isn't nearly as big as the pointspread suggests. The Titans brought back most of their depth and four starters from a team which made the NCAA Tournament last season. While the Titans' admittedly record isn't very good, they've had a number of close losses, a couple coming in OT. Only one of their losses by more than 10 points. While the Gaels have won a few in a row, they'd previously lost four straight. Grab the points.
|12-10-18||Kings v. Bulls +2.5||Top||108-89||Loss||-110||28 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BEST BET). The Bulls got embarrassed by Boston on Saturday and they're going to be looking to bounce back with a much better effort. I believe that they're catching the Kings at the right time. Sacramento lost by double-digits at Indiana Saturday and will now be playing its third road game in the past four days. The Bulls have been dealing with injuries all year but they're slowly getting heathier. Prior to the Boston debacle, the Bulls' previous two home games resulted in an outright win against OKC and a 1-point loss against San Antonio. Expect their best effort to lead to at least another cover here.
|12-08-18||Nuggets v. Hawks +7.5||Top||98-106||Win||100||26 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Nuggets absolutely destroyed the Hawks, at Denver, a few weeks ago, a 45-point beatdown. At the time, the Hawks were in the middle of a road trip and had just lost tight games against the Lebron Lakers and the defending champion Warriors. Off those b2b close losses and weary from being thousands of miles from home, they were vulnerable. This time, its the Hawks which are at home. This time, its the Nuggets who have been on the road for some time. The Nuggets played last night at Charlotte and are now playing their third game in four days, the final leg of a 5-game road trip. Dating back to the 11/15 game against the Hawks, the Nuggets have not played in the same arena in consecutive games. Thats a lot of travel; after this they finally get a 4-game home stretch. The Hawks haven't forgotten the 11/15 loss. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to improve to 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 20 or more points.
|12-07-18||Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4.5||Top||107-103||Loss||-110||25 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played on the Grizzlies in their last game, a double-digit win over the Clippers on Wednesday. However, that was at Memphis, where they've been playing well all year. They're now 8-3 at home. The road has been a different story, as they've been mediocre away from Memphis, most recently losing by eight. The home/road difference is even more pronounced for the Pelicans. They're only 3-10 on the road but an impressive 10-3 here at New Orleans. Last time out, they won by 26. While the Pelicans have tomorrow off, the Grizzlies will host Lebron and the Lakers tomorrow. It all adds up to another big home win for the Pelicans.
|12-07-18||NC-Greensboro v. Elon +12.5||Top||75-74||Win||100||13 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on ELON (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, the Spartans are a solid team. Last time out, they even gave Kentucky all it could handle. For awhile, at least. Midway through the second half, the Spartans even led the Wildcats. Kentucky closed things out on a big run though; the 78-61 final snapping UNC Greensboro's 6-game winning streak. While they've had a few days off, I expect that loss to take a toll. While the Phoenix have not gotten off to a good start, I believe that they're a little better than they've shown and that the early results have helped in providing us with an extra generous number. The Phoenix love to hit from downtown and they're pretty good at doing so. They're 14-6 ATS over the years, after allowing 90 or more points in their previous game, and I look for them to give their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting.
|12-05-18||Utah State v. BYU||Top||80-95||Win||100||26 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on BYU (10* GAME OF WEEK). While the Aggies have admittedly been playing well, the Cougars have dominated them in recent seasons. Just in the 'Nick' of time, the Cougars get Emery back from a 9-game suspension. He'll provide a much-needed spark to the offense. Keep in mind that the junior has made 172 three-pointers, on 38% shooting, over the course of his career. Its not too late for the Cougars, who had high hopes coming in, to salvage their season. Expect them to rise to the occasion with a much-needed victory.
|12-05-18||Thunder v. Nets +7.5||Top||114-112||Win||100||28 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Thunder are off b2b2b blowout wins and are playing well. I expect the Nets to bring them back down to earth though. OKC's recent winning streak has created plenty of value at the betting window. Keep in mind that the Thunder are laying a bigger number here than they were at venues like Phoenix and Cleveland. Yet, the Nets have a better record than either the Suns or Cavs. Grab the generous points and expect the Nets to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover.
|12-03-18||Rockets v. Wolves +2||Top||91-103||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* BEST BET). True, the Rockets are off b2b blowout wins. However, lets not forget that they'd lost four in a row, before that. Also, its worth noting that they're only 13-21 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b double-digit victories. I expect homecourt to be the difference in this one. The T-Wolves are a profitable 14-6-1 ATS (16-5 SU) the last 21 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Look for them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats tonight.
|12-02-18||Jazz v. Heat +4||Top||100-102||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While this is only their third consecutive road game, I believe that the Jazz will be getting a little road-weary. Thats because this marks the 13th consecutive time that they'll be playing at a different venue than they played their previous game at. Ten of those 13 (10 of L12) have come on the road. (The two home games during that stretch were immediately followed by a road game.) Either way, I expect them to have their hands full. Note that Utah is 0-4 ATS after having won three of its previous four. The Heat come in confident, off their minor upset of the Pelicans. They're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were off an upset win as a home underodg. The Heat have defeated the Jazz three straight times, two of those wins coming by a single point. Expect them to take this down to the wire with a great shot at another upset.
|12-01-18||Nets v. Wizards -5||Top||88-102||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). Both teams played and lost yesterday. However, while the Wizards were getting blown out at Philly, the Nets double-OT loss was arguably far more painful and it should take a far bigger toll on them today. The Wizards are going to be in an angry mood. Not just from yesterday but also because the Nets upset them here a couple of weeks ago. Schedule in their favor, expect some serious payback today.
|11-29-18||Clippers v. Kings +3||Top||133-121||Loss||-110||25 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO (10* BEST BET). The Kings are off b2b losses, for the fourth time this season. However, they've been great in that situation (3-0 SU/ATS) and they've got both the venue and the schedule in their favor. While the Kings, 6-2-1 ATS their last nine when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, are well-rested, the Clippers are off a win over Phoenix last night. Though they did pull away for a convincing victory, the score was tied at half. So, stars Harris and Gallinari were still forced to see relatively heavy (33 + 35) minutes. The Kings began the season with b2b defeats. They responded with a double-digit win (as a double-digit dog) over the Thunder. At the beginning of this month, the Kings again lost b2b games. They answered with a double-digit win over the T-Wolves, again when listed as an underdog. In the middle of this month, they lost b2b games for a third time. Once again, they faced OKC. Once again, they responded with an outright win. Expect their best effort to lead to at least another cover tonight.
|11-29-18||Alabama +7 v. UCF||Top||64-70||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on ALABAMA (10* BEST BET). The Knights upset the Tide last season, winning by three points (65-62) at Alabama. The Tide, who were favored by -9.5 points for that game, haven't forgotten and are coming in ready to play. Though they haven't been covering, this is a confident team which has won three straight and five of six. Like last year's game, expect this one to come right down to the wire, the visiting underdog again coming away with AT LEAST another cover.
|11-28-18||Monmouth v. Kentucky -24||Top||44-90||Win||100||26 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* GAME OF MONTH). I've only played on the Wildcats once this season. They came through for me in that 11/14 game, the only game that they've covered this season, easily disposing of North Dakota by a 38-point margin. They're laying a similar number here as they were for that one and I'm again expecting another lopsided win and cover. Monmouth is an ugly 0-7 on the season. Even teams like CS-Fullerton and Lehigh were able to beat them by 24. Monmouth wasn't on the road for either of those either. Needless to say, Kentucky is a far stronger opponent. While the ATS wins haven't been there, the Cats have now won five straight by double-digits. Expect them to pull away and win this one by more than 30.
|11-27-18||East Tennessee State v. Georgia Southern -4||Top||69-64||Loss||-105||10 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN (10* FULLCOURT PRESS). Both these teams have played well thus far, both have been money at the betting window. That said, playing at home, I expect the Eagles to have the advantage. The Buccaneers are perfect at home but only 1-2 on the road. The Eagles just beat a trio of respectable tams (FAU, Pepperdine and Montana) on a neutral court and they won their two home games by an average score of 118.5 to 70. While they did start out with a 'cupcake,' the last four wins have been legit. Last season, playing at home, the Bucs hammered the Eagles. Senior guard Tookie Brown and co. haven't forgotten. Tonight, they get some payback.
|11-26-18||Magic v. Warriors -8||Top||110-116||Loss||-110||29 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). While they're still dealing with some injuries, here's a great spot for the champs to "get healthy." While the Warriors had yesterday off, the Magic were busy playing Lebron and the Lakers, at LA. Playing their third in four days, the first of which was in the high altitude of Denver, expect fatigue to be a factor for the Magic, the Magic happy to lay down the hammer for a convincing win and cover.
|11-25-18||Clippers v. Blazers -4||Top||104-100||Loss||-110||12 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* PERS FAV). Off b2b losses, the Blazers are going to be a determined team this evening. With an 11-point win against them a few weeks ago, the Blazers have now beaten the Clippers four straight times. All four victories came by a minimum of eight points. The Blazers are 7-3 ATS on the season, when laying points. The Clippers, on the other hand, are now 3-6 ATS when getting points. They're also just 2-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Blazers roll.
|11-25-18||IUPU Ft Wayne v. Cleveland State +4.5||Top||82-79||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND STATE (10*). While neither of these are "big name" teams, I believe that the Vikings are offering us excellent value as underdogs. The Mastadons are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road, allowing an average of 98 points. They're now 8-23 ATS their last 31 road lined games. Though wins have been hard to come by, I like the direction Dennis Felton has the Vikings going. Though I like their chances of an outright upset, I'm happy to grab the points.
|11-24-18||Pelicans v. Wizards +2||Top||114-124||Win||100||26 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). Both teams played Friday. So, each will be playing the second of b2b games. However, New Orleans also played Wednesday, while Washington did not. That means that the Pelicans are playing their third game in four days, while the same cannot be said of the Wizards. Knowing that they'll face these same Pelicans, at New Orleans, on Wednesday, expect the Wizards to "hold serve" by protecting their home court.
|11-21-18||Harvard v. San Francisco -6||Top||57-61||Loss||-103||16 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF (10* PERS FAV). The Dons are playing with a ton of confidence. Sure, the competition has been weak. However, this team can improve to 5-0 under Kyle Smith for the first time. They've won all their games by a minimum of 32 points and their +35.8 point average margin of victory ranks fourth in the country. A +21.3 edge in rebounds ranks second in the country. While its true that Harvard has been strong at the betting window in recent seasons and also true that the team brought back nearly all its pieces from last season, the Crimson will be playing their third straight on the road. A 2-point loss at Rhode Island last time out figures to take a toll. So does the absence of Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns. Those are two huge losses for this team. Expect the Dons to keep on rolling for another day.
|11-21-18||Pelicans v. 76ers -3.5||Top||120-121||Loss||-110||24 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PERS FAV). The home team won both meetings last season. The Pelicans won by seven at New Orleans. Howver, the 76ers hammered them by a 100-82 margin in the game here at Philadelphia. Homecourt has been huge from both these teams again so far this season. The 76ers are a poor 3-7 on the road but a perfect 9-0 here at Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are 8-1 at New Orleans but just 2-6 at home. With an O/U line in the high 230s, this is expected to be a high-scoring game. That suits the 76ers just fine. They're 29-13 ATS the past 42 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During that same span, they're also 52-27-1 ATS when facing an opponent which averages 106 or more points. Expect the tempo and venue to lead to another win and cover for the new look 76ers.
|11-19-18||VCU v. Temple -2.5||Top||57-51||Loss||-108||15 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* PERS FAV). The Owls and Rams will be facing each other at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. I expect the Owls to have the advantage. Over the years, we've gotten used to the Rams consistently being a very strong squad. Indeed, prior to last season, the Rams had won a minimum of 24 games in 11 consecutive seasons. Last season, they got a new coach and fell to just 17-14. Top players Tillman and Williams prevented them from stumbling even further. However, they too have now moved on. That means that the Rams are going to have trouble with teams like Temple. Unlike the Rams, the Owls brought back most of their pieces from last season's team. Expect their experience and depth to prove the difference Monday night.
|11-19-18||Clippers v. Hawks +7||Top||127-119||Loss||-110||28 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). While they haven't been getting any "W's" to show for it, the Hawks are fighting very hard. They've covered the spread in three of their last four. The Hawks played the Clippers tough last time they met, LA winning by a single point. I expect them to again give the Clippers all they can handle. While both teams had Sunday off, the Hawks also have tomorrow (Tuesday) off. The Clippers, on the other hand, have a rematch against Washington tomorrow. The Clippers are 3-4 on the road overall and that includes a 1-4 SU/ATS mark when playing on the road when the O/U was 220 or greater. Grab the points.
|11-17-18||St. Louis +7.5 v. Seton Hall||Top||66-64||Win||100||27 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on ST LOUIS. The Billikens have won all three of their games and come in confident. On the other hand, the Pirates may have lost a little of their swagger; they were hammered by 23 points, at Nebraska, last time out. The Pirates have lost a lot: Desi Rodriguez (17.8 ppg), Khadeen Carrington (15.6 ppg and 4.4 apg), and all-time rebounding leader Angel Delgado (13.6 ppg and 11.8 rpg). Expect them to have their hands full.
|11-16-18||Jazz v. 76ers -2.5||Top||107-113||Win||100||28 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Homecourt has been huge for the 76ers. Indeed, they're an ugly 2-7 on the road but a perfect 7-0 here at Philadelphia. I fully expect them to keep that perfect record in tact for awhile yet. (After this, their next home games are against Phoenix, New Orleans, Cleveland and NY - all very winnable games.) The first game with Jimmy Butler in the lineup didn't go so well, as the 76ers blew a 16-point lead and lost at Orlando. His acquisition makes this a very dangerous team, however, with three elite players. They're going to be highly motivated to get the first win of the "new era." Sure, the Jazz are going to also be motivated to bounce back off their embarrassing 50-pt loss. However, that loss revealed some issues and I don't think the Jazz match up well against the new look 76ers. Note that Philly swept the season series last year, including a 107-86 blowout win in the game here. They were laying -6 for that one. Despite the perfect home record and arguably a superior team, we're getting them at a lower line here. I feel thats offering excellent value and am expecting another big win.
|11-15-18||Oregon v. Iowa +4||Top||69-77||Win||100||14 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on IOWA (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams will be playing at MSG. While thats technically a neutral court, I expect it to favor the Hawkeyes. Iowa has played here before, as the Big Ten Tourney was played here last season. (The Hawkeyes beat Illinois and lost to Michigan, the eventual champ, in OT.) Oregon, on the other hand, hasn't played here in more than a decade. While the Ducks are indeed very talented, they're also relatively young. This game is going to be a big deal to them and I expect there to be some nervousness. With an O/U line in the low 150s, as this play is posted, note that the Ducks are just 3-10 ATS the past 13 times that they played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. Don't expect them to improve on those stats tonight.
|11-14-18||North Dakota v. Kentucky -26||Top||58-96||Win||100||27 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* VIOLATOR). The Wildcats opened as the biggest favorite on the Wednesday board. However, I think that line could have easily been even higher, as I'm expecting an absolute destruction. As you probably saw or heard, the Cats got embarrassed by Duke on opening night. Off that 118-84 blowout loss, the worst since before Calipari came here, they came out a little flat out of the gate for their next game and found themselves trailing 44-37 against Southern Illinois. Kentucky woke up though and won 71-59. That wasn't quite enough for the cover but it absolutely provides them with positive momentum. Calipari had this to say: "I just said, be happy we won and figure it out. I've got a pretty good idea of how I'm going to do this now, and I'm just glad that we really got smashed, so there's no question. If you demand a lot, you get a lot. If you accept mediocrity, you're going to get it every time. ... I was very aggressive today." Stepping down in class, expect Calipari to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way Wednesday, en route to a 30+ point blowout win.
|11-14-18||Grizzlies v. Bucks -9.5||Top||116-113||Loss||-110||24 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* PERS FAV). The Grizzlies have been tough at home. However, they only score 96.3 ppg on the road and thats led to a 2-4 record. Its also going to make it extremely difficult to keep up with a Milwaukee team which averages 124.3 ppg here at home. Allowing only 105.2 ppg here, the Bucks have a perfect 6-0 home record, covering the number in five of those. In fact, even the lone non-cover here was an 11-point win when they were favored by -11.5. In other words, all six games here have been double-digit victories. Expect another one tonight.
|11-12-18||Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas -20||Top||55-65||Loss||-105||10 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Longhorns are 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS thus far. Off a hard fought win over Arkansas, tonight's opponent provides the perfect opportunity for a "feel good" blowout win. Texas won 80-59 when these teams last met and the gap figures to be even larger this time. LA Monroe's games against Jackson State and Millsaps College won't have prepared them for the type of athleticism and intensity that they're going to see tonight. This one gets ugly.
|11-12-18||Magic v. Wizards -9||Top||109-117||Loss||-105||9 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). Off a win at Miami and now with some positive momentum, the Wizards badly need to string together victories. This figures to be the perfect opponent and situation to get one. While the Wizards had yesterday off, the Magic were busy beating up on the Knicks. Sure, that wasn't the most taxing win. However, its still worth mentioning that the Magic are an ugly 11-25-1 ATS (10-27 SU) the past couple of seasons, when off an upset win. The Magic just beat the Wizards, at Orlando, a few nights ago. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect the revenge-minded Wizards to get some payback.
|11-10-18||Nets v. Warriors -8||Top||100-116||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* PERS FAV). Many aren't going to be willing to back the champs tonight. Not without Curry. Not without Green. As a result, we're getting the champs at a far lower line than we normally would; GS was laying -15 when hosting the Nets last season. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. With the venue and schedule in their favor, Durant, Thompson and co. still have more than enough to deliver a double-digit win tonight. After getting hammered by the Bucks on Thursday, the well-coached Warriors are going to be all business tonight. While the Warriors had last night off, the Nets are off a hard-fought (112-110) win in the high altitude of Denver. They're already 0-2 SU/ATS this season, when playing the second of b2b games. They lost those games by 20 and 19 points. More of the same here.
|11-09-18||Celtics v. Jazz -3||Top||115-123||Win||100||14 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on UTAH (10* MAIN EVENT). Last night's game at Phoenix worked out about as well as I could have possibly hoped. Not only did I cover with the Suns but the Celtics were forced to fight back and win the game in overtime. The starters had to log some pretty heavy minutes, Irving going over the 43-minute mark. While the Celtics were having to give everything they had, the Jazz had last night off. The Celtics are already 0-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games and they're now 2-5 ATS on the road. The Jazz snapped their losing streak last time out, winning by 15 points. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to carry the positive momentum from that game into tonight's contest, en route to a win and cover.
|11-09-18||Toledo v. Oakland +6||Top||87-86||Win||100||11 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* BEST BET). When these teams met at Toledo last season, the line was basically a pick'em. (Toledo closed as a 1-point favorite and won 87-74.) Oakland played that game without one of its top players, Jaylen Hayes, who was out with suspension. Hayes has moved on, as have Nunn and Walker. All three averaged 17 or more points last season. So, those are indeed some big shoes to fill. That said, this is a well-coached team and the cupboard isn't nearly as bare as many seem to feel. The Golden Griffins come in with some confidence, winning their first game by a 99-44 margin. Sure, the opponent (Kalamazoo) was a joke but the fact that they've got that big win under their belt will benefit them. While the Rockets should have another good season and do return a number of key players, the loss of Fletcher (18.1 ppg, 8 rbg) is significant. (He had 20/8 in last year's game.) Last year's game was closer than the final score indicated, the Grizzlies trimming the gap twice in the second half. While I respect the Rockets, I expect the Grizzlies to give them all they can handle here.
|11-08-18||Celtics v. Suns +10||Top||116-109||Win||100||14 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHOENIX (10* BEST BET). With the Celtics off b2b losses, many will be expecting them to bounce back with an easy win tonight. However, those b2b losses continue a pattern and should be of concern to anyone looking to lay the big number tonight. Through six road games, the Celtics are 3-3. A closer look shows that only one of those six games resulted in a win of greater than six points. With a "bigger game" (Utah) on deck tomorrow, I feel that the Celtics are going to have trouble covering the big number here. The Suns covered both meetings with Boston last season, losing by five and eight points. In fact, they covered both meetings the previous season, too. Including those results, Phoenix is 14-8 ATS is last 22 against teams from the Atlantic while Boston is 8-12 ATS its last 20 against Pacific teams. Unlike their guests, the Suns don't play tomorrow. Their full focus is on the task at hand. Though Booker isn't quite 100% yet, he's got a handful of games under his belt now and is still playing at a high level. Ayton, the #1 pick, is off to a strong start and gives them a new dynamic. Expect their best effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover tonight.
|11-07-18||Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4||Top||87-89||Win||100||13 h 25 m||Show|
I'm playing on MEMPHIS (10* BEST BET). The Nuggets are almost always tough at home. However, they're still just 36-50 on the road the past couple of seasons and a closer look at their schedule reveals that they've faced some relatively easy opponents through this season's first four games. Their last two on the road were at Cleveland and Chicago. (Those teams are a combined 4-17 and they're both only won one game on their own home floor.) Tonight, the Nuggets will face a Grizzly team which is a perfect 3-0 on its home floor, outscoring visiting teams by a commanding average of 118.3 to 102.7. The Grizzlies covered both home games against the Nuggets last season, most recently winning outright as a 7-point underdog. Expect them to continue their strong homecourt play this evening.
|11-06-18||La Salle v. Temple -9||Top||67-75||Loss||-112||26 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* BEST BET). Fran Dunphy succeeded John Chaney as Temple head coach in 2006. In 12 seasons with the Owls, he's got a 247-152 record. Today's game figures to have extra special meaning to Dunphy, for a few reasons. Its his final year as head coach, he'll step aside after this game. So, this will be the last time that he plays a season opener. Additionally, its the last time that he'll face La Salle, unless the teams end up meeting in tournament play. Thats noteworthy as Dunphy graduated from La Salle. Over the years, he's gone 28-8 against his alma mater, 15-4 as a coach of the Owls. Expect him to have his team ready, the players recognizing the significance of the game to their coach and pulling away for a double-digit win.
|11-04-18||Knicks v. Wizards -6.5||Top||95-108||Win||100||10 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The season may be still early but these are desperate times for the Wizards. They began the season by dropping a pair of home games, both very close losses. Next, they went 1-4 on a tough West Coast road trip. They've since returned home and got blown out by OKC. Worse, after this, they go back on the road for another three games. This team is better than its shown and the Porzingis-less Knicks are the perfect opponent to get healthy against. Wizards bounce back big.
|11-02-18||Thunder v. Wizards -2||Top||134-111||Loss||-110||13 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Wizards badly need a win. Tonight, they've got both the venue and the schedule working in their favor. While Washington had last night off, OKC is off a relatively hard-fought win at Charlotte. Though I played on the Thunder in their recent win against the Clippers, they're now playing their third game in the past four days. Washington coach Scott Brooks, former coach of the Thunder, has made sure his current team takes care of business when hosting his former team. The Wizards beat the Thunder by six here last season after blowing them out by 22 here the previous season. Howard will be on a minutes restriction in returning tonight but anything extra he can provide will be a bonus. Expect the Wizards to bounce back, moving to 8-2 the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses.
|11-01-18||Clippers v. 76ers -4.5||Top||113-122||Win||100||23 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The 76'ers have gotten off to a poor start at the betting window. Those sup-par ATS results are working in our favor tonight, keeping the line lower than it easily could have been. The 76'ers have faced nothing but Eastern Conf. opposition so far. Tonight, they'll get to add to a 39-21 ATS mark the past two seasons, against teams from the West. The 76ers got blown out at Toronto last time out. They're a perfect 4-0 SU on this floor though and they're also 27-16-1 ATS the last 44 times that they were off a double-digit loss. More? With an O/U line in the high 220s, note that the 76'ers are a lucrative 25-11 ATS the past 36 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|10-30-18||Clippers v. Thunder -2.5||Top||110-128||Win||100||14 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on OKC (10* PERS FAV). I won with the Clippers when these teams faced each other, at LA, on 10/19. Not only were the Thunder playing on the road, they were without Westbrook. The Thunder are back home now though and Westbrook now has a few games under his belt. I expect their best effort tonight and feel that the line is very reasonable. The Thunder have dominated the Clippers here in recent seasons, including 8-point and 9-point wins last season. Playing with 'recent revenge,' expect more of the same tonight.
|10-29-18||Lakers v. Wolves||Top||120-124||Win||100||13 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* MAIN EVENT). Neither team has gotten off to the start it was hoping for. Both will be hungry for a win tonight. Knowing that they'll face Utah next, followed by a difficult 5-game road trip, which begins at Golden State and Portland and which includes these same Lakers, I expect the T-Wolves sense or urgency to be a little greater. Playing on their home floor, the Wolves got blown out last time. However, they're still 2-1 here, now 53-34 the past 2+ seasons. The Lakers, on the other hand, have 1-2 on the road, the lone win coming at Phoenix. The Wolves had plenty of success against the Lakers prior to Lebron's arrival. Expect them to continue that success for at least one more night.
|10-28-18||Wizards +3.5 v. Clippers||Top||104-136||Loss||-105||15 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). The Wizards started out the trip with a win at Portland, proving that they're capable of winning at a more difficult venue than this one. They got blown out at Golden State, which wasn't a surprise. Perhaps still feeling the effects of that loss, they also lost at Sacramento. Now, off b2b losses and just 1-4 to start the season, they're going to be extremely hungry tonight. The Wizards played the Clippers tough last season; they won by nine at Washington and lost by just one here at LA. With an O/U line currently at 228 or 229, the pace figures to favor the Wizards. The Clippers are 9-14 ATS (11-12 SU) the last 23 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During the same stretch, the Wizards were 12-7 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. I'll grab the points but am expecting an upset.
|10-26-18||Bulls v. Hornets -9.5||Top||106-135||Win||100||27 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* GAME OF MONTH). These teams just faced each other, at Chicago, on Wednesday. Playing on their home floor, the Bulls were able to eke out a 2-point win. All is not currently well in Chicago, however, as the team is dealing with some key injuries. Markkenen, Dunn and Valentine are all very important for this team and all remain out. The Bulls were able to overcome those injuries at home. On the road, against a determined revenge-minded opponent, is going to prove a different story.Now, Portis is also out. That leaves them extremely thin in the frontcourt. Parker will be expected to do a lot but he's not 100% healthy himeself and is hardly up to the task. Hutchinson not likely to cut it either. At 2-3, Charlotte coach James Borrego knows his team can ill afford another loss here. Off Wednesday's loss, Borrego commented: "My tendency right now is to go make changes all over the place. But we've got to stay disciplined, we've got to stay poised." The Hornets have had real trouble at Chicago. They beat the Bulls by 15 the last meeting here though. Expect Borrego's team to "stay poised" en route to another double-digit blowout win.
|10-24-18||Mavs v. Hawks +2||Top||104-111||Win||100||27 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Hawks opened the season with three straight road games. They lost the first two, badly. However, they closed the trip with a blowout win at Cleveland, which gives them some positive momentum coming into their home opener. The Hawks have had the past two days off and they also get the next two days off. The Mavs lost their lone road game, at Phoenix, by 21 points. They're without Nowitzki and they'll also be without Harrison Barnes, a significant blow. Additionally, Devin Harris is expected to remain out. Meanwhile, the Hawks are expecting to have Dedmon in the lineup for the first time this season. Even if his minutes are limited, as they'll likely be, he adds depth in the paint to complent Len. The Hawks have owned the Mavs over the past five years including another sweep last season. More of the same Wednesday.
|10-22-18||Suns v. Warriors -12.5||Top||103-123||Win||100||13 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on GS (10* VIOLATOR). Off last night's loss, the champs are going to be in an angry mood tonight. The young Suns are the perfect opponent to take their anger out on. The Warriors have won all eight meetings against the Suns the past couple of seasons. A look at last season's four games, all played in 2018, shows that all four resulted in double-digit victories. The Warriors won the two games at Oakland by an average of 28 points. (Including those victories, the Warriors are 47-3 SU the last 50 times that they were home favorites of -12.5 or more.) Note that they were laying -15 and -16 for those games and that we're getting a better line to work with, due to the b2b spot. With the champs looking to flex their muscles with a statement bounceback win, I'm expecting this one to be one-sided the entire way.
|10-20-18||Raptors v. Wizards +1||Top||117-113||Loss||-103||13 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). Off a 1-point loss in their opener, knowing that they embark on a tough 5-game road trip out West immediately following this game and facing the team which eliminated them from last season's playoffs, the Wizards are going to be extremely motivated to win this one. In addition to having the venue in their favor, they've got the schedule working for them. While the Wizards had yesterday off, the Raptors are off a hard-fought win over the Celtics last night and are now playing their third game in four days. Even with the loss in the opener, the Wizards are 61-31 on this floor the past couple of seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening.
|10-17-18||Grizzlies v. Pacers -6.5||Top||83-111||Win||100||32 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on INDIANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pacers were a combined 58-29 here the past two seasons, 29-15 last year. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, were a combined 25-60 on the road, a dismal 6-35 last year. Given that the Pacers are projected to win about 47.5 games this season, compared to 34.5 for Memphis, this line could easily be higher. While both games were close, the Pacers swept the Grizzlies last season. Expect them to finish on top once again, covering the relatively small number along the way.
|06-03-18||Cavs v. Warriors -11.5||Top||103-122||Win||100||49 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF MONTH). Many will look at how close the Cavs came in Game 1 and be quick to grab the points. However, I'm not one of them. Instead, I expect the Warriors to deliver a blowout. The Cavs had their chance in Game 1. Fair or not, the over-turned offensive foul call was a killer. Likewise, JR Smith running the ball out, killed their chances of a game winning shot. To come so close to scoring a huge upset, only to lose in that fashion, is going to be very hard to bounce back from. While I did win with them in Game 7 at Boston, note that the Cavs have now won just one of their past five road games. Meanwhile, the Warriors have had their wake-up call. When firing on all cylinders and playing on this floor, they're nearly unstoppable. Expect a decisive victory. *June GOM
|05-27-18||Cavs +3 v. Celtics||Top||87-79||Win||100||11 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* MAIN EVENT). Obviously, homecourt has been extremely significant in this series. That said, with everything on the line, I'm going with the game's best player. We're even getting a few points to boot. Note that the Cavs are 15-10-1 ATS in the underdog role. Expect Lebron to do his thing, getting enough help from the supporting cast to punch his ticket to another finals.
|05-25-18||Celtics v. Cavs -6.5||Top||99-109||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* MAIN EVENT). I'm not writing Lebron and co. off yet. Homecourt has been huge in this series and the Cavs have now won their last three games here by 74 combined points. The Cavs are 3-2 ATS (4-1 SU) when trailing in a series. Going back further finds them at 23-15 AT their last 38 in that situation. Expect this series to go the distance, the Cavs covering on their home floor, once again.
|05-23-18||Cavs +1.5 v. Celtics||Top||83-96||Loss||-115||13 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BEST BET). Homecourt has obviously been very significant in this series, thus far. However, I believe that changes tonight. The Cavs have major momentum and confidence on their side and I don't see them losing another game in this series. With Lebron doing his thing, look for Cleveland, 15-9-1 ATS its last 25 as an underdog, to grab control of the series.
|05-20-18||Rockets +8 v. Warriors||Top||85-126||Loss||-105||11 h 48 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). I attended the season opener between these two teams, here at Oracle. You may recall that game, the crowd thought that the Warriors hit the game-winner at the buzzer but it was waved off, upon further review. Like that first game of the season, I also see tonight's pivotal game "coming down to the wire." Expect the Rockets to give the champs all they can handle, taking the game down to the wire and improving to 12-6 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater.
|05-19-18||Celtics v. Cavs -6||Top||86-116||Win||100||49 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Celtics certainly looked like the better team through the first two games. However, I'm not counting out the Cavs just yet. Not by a long-shot. The Cavs are still 34-13 at home. They've beaten the Celtics five of the last six meetings on this floor and they won their last game here (against Toronto) by 35 points. Energized by the home crowd, Lebron and co. bounce back, picking up the cover along the way.
|05-16-18||Warriors v. Rockets -1||Top||105-127||Win||100||36 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON. A loss in Game 1 means that the Rockets have squandered the home-court advantage that they worked so hard for. All is not necessarily lost though, provided they bounce back with their best effort on Wednesday. Backs to the wall, I expect them to do exactly that. Even with the Game 1 loss, the Rockets are 44-10 the last 54 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. They're also 19-6 (SU) the past 25 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss, 11-3 their last 14 when off an 'upset' loss. While the champs have now won three straight, they're just 8-20-2 ATS the past 30 times that they were off three or more consecutive victories. Expect the Rockets to dig deep and to even up the series.
|05-08-18||Pelicans v. Warriors -11.5||Top||104-113||Loss||-103||16 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Yesterday, I suggested that the Cavs "smelled the blood in the water." I feel the same way here. Up 3-1 and off a blowout win at New Orleans, the champs have found their groove. They're now 20-13 ATS (25-8 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when leading in a playoff series. The Warriors know the importance of closing out the series and not giving the pesky Pelicans any sort of life. Expect them to pull away for a convincing victory.
|05-07-18||Raptors v. Cavs -5.5||Top||93-128||Win||100||36 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* VIOLATOR). Already down 0-2 in the series and down by double-digits in Game 3, it would have been easy for the Raptors to quit. They didn't do that. Rather, they showed their resilience and battled all the way back. Unfortunately, for Raptor fans, it still wasn't enough. Lebron hit another game-winner at the buzzer. The Raptors gave it everything they had in that Game 3 comeback. To have done so, only to have their hearts-broken in that manner, is going to be extremely tough to bounce back from. When they find themselves down double-digits in this one, which I expect to happen, fighting back is going to prove far more difficult. The Cavs smell the blood in the water and know they don't want to give the Raptors any life. Look for them to close things out, covering the small number along the way.
|04-29-18||Pacers v. Cavs -5||Top||101-105||Loss||-110||5 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). While they've cost me a couple of times, I still believe that the Cavs are the superior team in this matchup. With everything on the line, Lebron comes through. This time, covering the spread along the way.
|04-28-18||Pelicans v. Warriors -7.5||Top||101-123||Win||100||54 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Pelicans were certainly impressive in sweeping Portland. However, facing the defending champs on the road is a whole different matter. As of this writing, Curry remains doubtful for this game. While its possible that Curry could return, the Warriors current trio of Durant, Green and Thompson, along with their supporting cast, is more than enough to take care of business at Oracle. Note that the Warriors are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the past six times that they were a host in this series. While the Pelicans are 6-6 SU (4-8 ATS) their last 12 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, the Warriors are a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they played with three or more day's rest. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way.
|04-27-18||Cavs +1.5 v. Pacers||Top||87-121||Loss||-110||30 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BEST BET). While I lost with the Cavs on Wednesday, I'm coming right back with them again here. Lebron's 3-pointer just before the buzzer was an absolute killer for the Pacers. They'd fought so hard, had rallied from a deficit, had shut the Cavs down only to get beaten in that manner. I expect it have a negative carry-over effect on the Pacers. The Cavs are 17-3 SU the last 20 times that they were leading in a playoff series. Now that they're leading for the first time in this series, I expect them to finish things off.
|04-26-18||Celtics v. Bucks -4||Top||86-97||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* MAIN EVENT). Homecourt has certainly proven significant in this series. I expect that to be the case again this evening. While they failed to cover the last game here, the Bucks have won both games on this floor. They won those two games by an average of 13 points. Note that, as of this writing, this line is a little lower than the other lines were for the Bucks here. I feel thats providing us with plenty of value. Expect the Bucks to extend the series, covering the relatively small number along the way.
|04-25-18||Pacers v. Cavs -6.5||Top||95-98||Loss||-105||56 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). Up 2-1 in the series, the Pacers had a real chance to also take Game 4. It didn't happen. Instead, Lebron, Korver and co. prevailed. Thats going to leave the Pacers thinking about "what might have been" while also serving as a "wake-up call" for the Cavs. Having fought so hard to regain homecourt advantage, dont expect the Cavs to just squander it. Rather, expect them to deliver their most lopsided victory of the playoffs, to date.
|04-23-18||Rockets v. Wolves +6||Top||119-100||Loss||-110||31 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I've won with both the 'under' (Game 1) and the 'over' (Game3) in this series. In Game 2, I backed the Rockets. For Game 4, however, I feel that the value lies with the T-Wolves. Minnesota nearly scored an upset in Game 1, showing it could compete with the top seed. Off that tough Game 1 loss, I wasn't surprised to see the T-Wolves struggle in Game 2. However, they responded with a great effort in Game 3. Now, they really have a series. Butler is a bit banged-up but he's as tough as they come. He still managed 28 points to go along with seven boards, five assists and a steal. Needless to say, he makes this team a lot better. Certainly better than your typical #8 seed. Off their Game 3 win, the Wolves now really believe that they can win. They're 31-11 at home, identical to the Rockets 31-11 record on the road. With the Rockets just 2-8 ATS their last 10, I'm grabbing all those generous points.
|04-21-18||76ers v. Heat +3.5||Top||106-102||Loss||-105||7 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). After losing Game 1, the Heat responded with a big win in Game 2. After dropping Game 3, I expect them to again bounce back in Game 4. Including that Game 2 victory, note that the Heat are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times that they found themselves trailing in a playoff series. Needless to say, the 76'ers have come along way. They've had a great season and are playing well. That said, as I noted when backing Miami in Game 2, this is 'new territory' for the 76'ers. They're not used to being in the playoffs and they're not used to leading in a playoff series. Look for a highly determined effort by the Heat, as they make the necessary adjustments, bouncing back and improving to 10-5 ATS their last 15 off a double-digit loss.
|04-19-18||Warriors v. Spurs +4||Top||110-97||Loss||-115||13 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO (10* MAIN EVENT). First off, condolences to the entire Popovich family on yesterday's passing of Erin Popovich. I won with the Warriors in Game 1. I'm not surprised that they're up 2-0. With or without their coach on the sidelines, I expect the Spurs to respond tonight. Eventually, the absence of Curry figures to catch up with the champs, if only for the game. I expect tonight to be that night. The Spurs have won 11 in a row here; their 33-8 home record ranked behind only Houston and Toronto. They're 4-1 ATS their last five, when off three or more consec. losses. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here.
|04-19-18||Blazers +4 v. Pelicans||Top||102-119||Loss||-115||5 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND. As you know, the Pelicans won both games at Portland. That makes this a must win game for the Blazers. I expect them to respond with their best effort. The Pelicans were no better at home than they were on the road this season and they allow more points here (111.9 ppg) than they do on the road. Even after dropping the first two games, the Blazers remain a healthy 54-30-1 ATS against teams which allow 106 or more ppg. Both regular season meetings here were close, each decided by six or fewer points. The Blazers won outright their last visit here. Expect them to take this one down to the wire with an excellent shot at an upset.
|04-18-18||Wolves v. Rockets -10||Top||82-102||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). Some will look at Game 1 and see how close the T-Wolves came to scoring an upset. They'll use that as reason to back them in Game 2. However, its been my experience that big road underdogs which let an opportunity slip away in Game 1, typically don't fare too well in Game 2. Rather, the home favorite has received its 'wake-up call' and brings a better effort in the second game. Thats what I expect to happen on Wednesday. The T-Wolves get outscored on the road where they are now just 17-25 on the season. The Rockets, on the other hand, are 35-7 here at Houston, outscoring teams by an average score of 114.1 to 104.9. Fully 'woken up,' expect an even larger margin of victory here.
|04-16-18||Heat +7.5 v. 76ers||Top||113-103||Win||100||35 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Heat were leading at halftime of Game 1 but wilted in the second half. Down a game, I fully expect them to battle for the entire four quarters on Monday. Keep in mind that this is new territory for the 76ers. As well as they've been playing, leading in a playoff series is a new experience for them. Also, note that Miami is a perfect 3-0 ATS its last three, when trailing in a playoff series. The Heat are also 29-17 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a double-digit loss. Throw in a 4-0-1 ATS record the past five times that they allowed 130 or more points and I expect them to bounce back a huge effort, en route to AT LEAST a cover in Game 2.
|04-14-18||Pelicans v. Blazers -4.5||Top||97-95||Loss||-108||5 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* MAIN EVENT). The Blazers got back on track just when it mattered, earning a key win over the Jazz in the final game of the regular season. That got them this home game vs. the Pelicans and I expect them to make the most of it. Much stronger at home, the Blazers are also 10-4 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. Expect the combination of homecourt and an advantage in the backcourt to lead to those numbers improving Saturday night.
|04-11-18||Jazz v. Blazers -3||Top||93-102||Win||100||14 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Jazz enter as the hotter team, I expect homecourt to ultimately make the difference tonight. While the Jazz are 20-20 on the road, the Blazers are 27-13 at home. Sure, the Blazers have lost four in a row. All those came on the road though. Back home, where they've gone 4-1 SU/ATS their last five against the Jazz, expect them to bounce back with their best effort.
|04-10-18||76ers v. Hawks +10||Top||121-113||Win||100||12 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). The Hawks are still playing hard. They beat Washington and Boston in their last two games. In addition to this being their home finale, its their final game of the year overall. They'll be anxious to give the fans a good effort. The 76ers, on the other hand, have a home game against Milwaukee on deck tomorrow, followed by the playoffs. They've come back to earth a little of late, as they've failed to cover in each of their last two games. Expect the Hawks to be the hungrier team and for that to lead to AT LEAST another ATS victory.
|04-09-18||Pelicans v. Clippers +7.5||Top||113-100||Loss||-113||16 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* MAIN EVENT). As you're likely aware, the Pelicans need this game for playoff positioning while the Clippers have been eliminated from postseason contention. Obviously, thats why the Pelicans are favored by so many points, despite playing in the road. Many are going to be willing to lay the big number, too. They'll think that the Clippers are going to roll over. However, I don't expect that to be the case. Doc Rivers isn't that kind of coach. He knows that this game has playoff implications and he isn't going to allow his players to go through the motions. Rivers had this to say: "I think I have to play the guys against New Orleans, honestly. I think we really have to go after that game. I just believe in protecting the league. That's what we should do, and I hope we do that." Expect the Clippers to "come to play," bouncing back with their best effort and improving to 6-2 ATS the past eight times that they allowed 130 or more points in their previous game.
|04-08-18||Pistons v. Grizzlies +5.5||Top||117-130||Win||100||22 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on MEMPHIS (10* MOTIVATIONAL MISMATCH). Playing their final home game of the season, I expect this game to mean more to the Grizzlies than it does to the Pistons. Detroit has actually played well recently. However, its a case of too little, too late. With their home finale on deck tomorrow, it's going to be hard for them to get up for a meaningless game against Memphis. The Grizzlies already played the Pistons tough at Detroit, losing by just two. Expect them to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST a cover while providing the home fans with a small measure of hope for next season.
|04-07-18||Pelicans v. Warriors -6||Top||126-120||Loss||-125||15 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pelicans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a 20-point loss, at Indiana, on Thursday, the champs are going to be in an angry mood. This is their regular season home finale, so they'll have some added motivation to close things out with a big win. While the Warriors had yesterday off, the Pelicans are off a game at Phoenix and playing their third game in the past four days. The Warriors have absolutely dominated New Orleans over the past five years. Expect that to continue here.
|04-06-18||Pacers v. Raptors -7.5||Top||73-92||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO (10* PERS FAV). The Raptors got back on track with a big win against Boston on Wednesday. That victory snapped an extended ATS skid and I expect them to build off it here. While the Raptors had last night off, the Pacers are off a victory over the defending champs. That game had been preceded by a 4-game trip out West for the Pacers, three games in California and the final game in the high altitude of Denver. This will mark the Pacers' seventh straight game in a different arena than the one in which they played their previous game. Playing their third in four nights, against a Raptor team which is a dominant 32-7 here at Toronto, expect it to catch up to them. Raptors roll.
|04-04-18||Celtics v. Raptors -7.5||Top||78-96||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
I’m playing on TORONTO (10* MAIN EVENT). Both teams played and lost yesterday. Today, I expect the Raptors to be the team which bounces back with a big win and cover. The home team has won all three meetings in the season series. The Raptors took the game here at Toronto by a dominating 111-91 score. In fact, they're a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they hosted the Celtics. Expect them to continue that dominance, improving to 33-15 ATS their last 48 divisional games along the way.
|03-31-18||Warriors -8.5 v. Kings||Top||112-96||Win||100||17 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). Its true that the champs have struggled of late. Its true that Curry remains out. Iguodala, too. Don't expect that to slow them down Saturday night though. Off three straight losses and having dropped two of this season's three meetings against Sacramento, Durant and co. are going to be all business here. The Warriors have won 15 of their last 16, when off an 'upset' loss. They're also 29-20-1 ATS (39-11 SU) the past 50 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. Dating back to 3/8 win over the Spurs, the Warriors have only won three games. All three of those victories came by double-digits. Expect another big win here.
|03-30-18||Wolves v. Mavs +5.5||Top||93-92||Win||100||25 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on DALLAS (10* BEST BET). Off Wednesday's 10-point loss to the Lakers, I expect the Mavs to bounce back with their best effort on Friday. The Mavs are 12-4 ATS their last 16, off a double-digit loss. Going back further finds them at a lucrative 41-20-2 ATS their last 63 in that situaion. Having lost all three of this season's meetings with Minnesota, the Mavs are going to be hungry. A look at the Twolves last six road games reveals that NONE of them resulted in a victory of more than five points. In fact, they were just 2-4 SU in those six road games. With the T-Wolves just 6-14 ATS their last 20 overall and potentially looking ahead to their next game (Utah) I'm grabbing the points with the revenge-minded home team.
|03-28-18||Nets v. Magic +2||Top||111-104||Loss||-115||13 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). These teams have been involved in three close games this season. All three were decided by five points or less. In each case, the home team finished on top. Playing at home, where they've dominated the Nets in recent seasons, I expect the Magic to have the advantage this evening. While Orlando's 15-21 home record is certainly nothing to get excited about, its considerably better than the Nets 10-27 mark on the road. Expect the well-rested Magic to improve to 10-4 ATS their last 14, when facing a team which allows 106 or more points per game.
|03-27-18||Cavs v. Heat +3||Top||79-98||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While the Cavs have won their past four, they've been terrible (15-40-1 ATS!) as favorites this season. The Heat, on the other hand, are a solid 22-15 ATS when listed in the underdog role. The Heat are also 41-22 ATS the past few seasons, when facing a team with a winning record, during the second half of the season. During that same stretch, Miami is also a healthy 70-48-2 ATS when playing in the revenge role. The Heat lost by two the last time these teams met. Expect them to give the Cavs all they can handle once again, with a great shot at the outright upset.
|03-27-18||Western Kentucky v. Utah +1||Top||64-69||Win||100||102 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on UTAH (10* BEST BET). After failing to qualify for the 'Big Dance,' t would have been easy for either of these teams to pack it in. Neither have done so. Each has put together an impressive run to get here. I believe that that the Utes bring a little more to the table though. Off a victory over St. Mary's last game, note that Utah was only the second team (Gonzaga also did so) to defeat the Gaels on their home floor this season. The Hilltoppers have been all over the place this season. Costa Rica, Bahamas and last week in LA, prior to their visit to Stillwater. While they've had plenty of time off, I believe that all the travel will finally take a toll. Expect the Utes, last team left standing from the Pac-12, to finish on top.
|03-26-18||Nuggets +6 v. 76ers||Top||104-123||Loss||-113||25 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). Back in late December, the 76ers upset the Nuggets, at Denver. I expect the revenge-minded Nuggets to bring their 'A game' for Monday's rematch. Note that Denver is an outstanding 7-3 ATS the past 10 times that it attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. Its true that the Nuggets are playing Game 5 of a 7-game road trip. However, they've had the past two days off, after winning at both Chicago and Washington. Note that the Nuggets are 8-3 SU the last 11 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Knowing the final two games of the trip (at Toronto and at OKC) are going to be difficult, I expect the Nuggets to go all out here. Expect AT LEAST a cover, the Nuggets improving to 6-3-1 ATS the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive road games.
|03-25-18||Blazers v. Thunder -2||Top||108-105||Loss||-115||27 h 9 m||Show|
I'm playing on OKC (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). Needless to say, this is a huge game in the Northwest Division. After a lengthy winning streak, the Blazers have dropped their last two. Facing a revenge-minded OKC team which is quietly playing some of its best basketball, I expect Portland's losing streak to reach three games. Off a win over Miami last time out, the Thunder have quietly won seven of their past eight. They were 5-2-1 ATS in those games. Having dropped all three games in the season series and sitting one game behind the Blazers in the standings, the Thunder are going to be extremely hungry. Their 26-11 home record is considerably better than Portland's 19-15 mark on the road. OKC finishes on top.
|03-25-18||Texas Tech +6.5 v. Villanova||Top||59-71||Loss||-105||5 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* MAIN EVENT). Admittedly, the Wildcats are a very strong team. However, I believe the same can be said of the Red Raiders. Nova did pull away late for a double-digit win against WVU. However, the Mountaineers gave them all they could handle almost the entire way. Keep in mind that this may be the Raiders' best team. They've beaten Kansas this season and they're going to come in confident that they can win this game. Expect the Raiders to improve to 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they played with one day's rest, or less, in between games.
|03-23-18||Syracuse v. Duke -11.5||Top||65-69||Loss||-103||13 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on DUKE (10* SWEET 16 GOY) The Orange deserve a lot of credit for beating a good Michigan State team. Upsetting TCU was also impressive. In both cases, they were able to slow down the tempo and play excellent defense against an opponent which was unfamiliar with their style. This time, however, they face a team which knows how to beat them. The Blue Devils already hammered the Orange by 16 points a month ago. Including that loss, each of Syracuse's last three losses all came by 'double-digits,' each by a minimum of 15. While the Orange are obviously an extremely stingy team, the Blue Devils' advantage on the offensive side of the ball is much bigger. The Blue Devils are playing at a very high level right now; their last six victories have all been by double-digits. They've come by an average of 19.5 points
|03-23-18||Clippers v. Pacers -2.5||Top||104-109||Win||100||24 h 48 m||Show|
I'm playing on INDIANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pacers were 2-0 against the Clippers last season, winning by an average of 15 points per game. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect them to finish on top again this evening. The Pacers had yesterday off. They also have tomorrow off. Additionally, they haven't played back-to-back games (two games in two days) for more than two weeks. Off a loss last time out and knowing they'll face these same Clippers in less than a week, at LA, I expect a highly motivated effort from the Pacers. The Clippers also had yesterday off. However, unlike their hosts, they've had to play b2b games a couple of times recently. That means that this will mark their sixth game in the past nine days. The Pacers are 21-11 ATS (25-7 SU) when listed as favorites. Expect a win and cover for the home team.
|03-22-18||Kansas State +6 v. Kentucky||Top||61-58||Win||100||84 h 14 m||Show|
I'm playing on K-STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Kentucky comes in on a roll. Always well coached and with always loaded with excellent athletes, Kentucky has to feel fortunate with the way things are working out. I fully expect them to receive a very tough test here though. Note that prior to blowing out Buffalo, which had been "trash-talking," Kentucky's previous three victories had all come by five or fewer points. I've stated several times that I felt the Big 12 was the strongest conference, "from top to bottom," this season. While they may have gotten a fortunate matchup with UMBC, with four teams from the Big 12 in the Sweet 16, its clear that the (K-State) Wildcats are "battle-tested" from conference play. KSU has been playing without its top player, Dean Wade. However, as of Monday morning, Wade stated the following: "I am like 98 percent sure I will play. I don't know if they can keep me out of this one. This is big time. I'm excited. It gives me another couple of days to heal. I am starting to feel a lot better. My day-by-day gets a lot better. This gives me a few more days to heal and recover." Its true that Kentucky has historically dominated K-State. However, Weber has been here before. His team has a score to settle and he's looking to prove his critics wrong. I expect Weber to have his team ready and I expect them to take this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright upset.
|03-22-18||76ers v. Magic +7||Top||118-98||Loss||-126||27 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on ORLANDO. I won with the Magic when they hosted the Raptors on Tuesday. At the time, I mentioned that they'd been quietlly competitive here at Orlando. Once again, they've got a favorable schedule. While they had yesterday off, the 76ers are off a Wednesday game vs. Memphis. Playing their third game in the past four days, it should be easy for the 76ers to take their hosts lightly. The Magic are going to be hungry though; the 76ers beat them by double-digits in each of this season's meetings and the Magic are going to be looking to show they can play with them. I'm grabbing the points.
|03-21-18||Clippers v. Bucks -4.5||Top||127-120||Loss||-110||27 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks are considerably better at home than they are on the road. Monday's loss at Cleveland, which will have them in an 'angry' mood, dropped the Bucks to 15-19 on the road. However, they've won back-to-back games here at home, where they're a healthy 22-14. While the Bucks had yesterday off, the Clippers are off a big 'TV' game at Minnesota. This will be their sixth straight road game. They'll be playing their third game in four days and their fifth game in the past seven. With the schedule in their favor, expect the Bucks, who know they'll face these same Clippers at LA in less than a week, to bounce back with a big win and cover.
|03-20-18||Raptors v. Magic +10||Top||93-86||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). With a game against the Cavs on deck tomorrow, it should be easy for the Raptors to look past the lowly Magic tonight. The Magic come in well-rested. Unlike their guests, they don't have to play tomorrow. Yes, the Raptors did beat them by 13 here a couple of weeks ago. However, that was the ONLY one of the the Magic's last 10 games, here at Orlando, which resulted in a double-digit loss. (Orlando was 5-5 in those games, the other four losses all came by nine or less.) Even with that result, the Magid are still a healthy 10-3 ATS their last 13 against teams which score 106 or more ppg. I expect them to improve on those stats this evening.
|03-18-18||Marshall v. West Virginia -11.5||Top||71-94||Win||100||36 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on WVU (10* 2ND RND GAME OF YEAR). The Mountaineers get a very favorable matchup here. I expect this well-coached team to take full advantage. The Herd come in hot and they're victory over Wichita State shows that they're worthy of respect. Still, the battle-tested Mountaineers, now 21-8-1 ATS their last 30 NCAA tournament games, 9-3 ATS when favored in the -9.5 to -12 range, are going to simply be too much for them. The Herd allowed an average of 79 ppg. Playing against much tougher opposition, the Mountaineers allowed 69 ppg.
You may recall that these two schools, which are less than 200 miles apart, used to play each other twice annually. The series stopped a few years back (2014) and there was some bad blood in the process. After the Marshall coach said "we're back" and called him "afraid," WVU coach Huggins responded with: "He can say I'm afraid all he wants. I've probably coached 1,116 more games than he has. It's ridiculous to say something like that. We're afraid. Yeah, we're really afraid. It's crazy, you know? We’ve beaten Duke. Mike is a pretty good coach. Was I afraid? I wasn't afraid playing Duke. Played Boeheim. We used to play him every year. Great coach. I wasn't afraid. Why would I be afraid? The thing that’s most laughable, and I'll get in trouble for saying it I know, but I'm to the point in my life where I really don't care. How about this? ‘We're back.’ That was their sixth loss in a row. ‘We’re back.’ ‘We're back’ all right. Honestly it's laughable ..... "
Huggins and the Mountaineers did get to face Marshall in 2015, after that exchange. WVU won by 18. Expect the Mountaineers, 14-7 ATS their last 21 (excluding pushes) lined games against teams which allow 77 or more points per game, to keep the pedal to the medal the entire way, en route to another convincing victory.
|03-17-18||Florida v. Texas Tech -1.5||Top||66-69||Win||100||13 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* PERS FAV). The Red Raiders received a tougher test in the first round than the Gators. Those results have helped in keeping this line very low. I feel that low number is providing us with excellent value with a very strong Texas Tech team. Sure, the Raiders were tested. That can be a good thing. They responded to that test by pulling away for a 10-point win, narrowly missing the cover. Note that they're 11-2 the past 13 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewer points, 21-4 their past 25 in that situation. The Big 12 was tough this season. Yet, the Raiders thrived. They hit 46.4% of their field goals on offense. Florida, by comparison, hits 43.4%. On the other side, the Gators allow opposing teams to hit 42.7% of their field goals, while allowing 69.2 ppg. Texas Tech, on the other hand, allows 64.6 ppg, opposing teams hitting a mere 40.6% of their field goals. Arguably stronger on both sides of the ball, expect the Red Raiders to punch their ticket for the next round, covering the small number along the way.
|03-17-18||Hornets v. Knicks +7||Top||101-124||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* BEST BET). As bad as the Knicks have been, I believe that they're providing us with plenty of value today. Even with a win last time out, the Hornets are still only 11-22 on the road. I don't believe that they should currently be "laying a touchdown" away from home, regardless of the venue. Note that the Knicks' 16-17 home record is considerably better than Charlotte's road record. Not surprisingly, the home team is already 2-0 in the season series. The Knicks won by five, as 2-point underdogs, in the earlier game here. They're 4-1 SU/ATS their last five as a host in the series. With the Knicks at 3-1 ATS in home games when the O/U line was set at 220 or higher, I'm grabbing all those generous points.
|03-15-18||Hornets v. Hawks +5||Top||129-117||Loss||-105||10 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). I won with the Hornets in their last game. However, tonight they're laying points, not getting them. That said, I now feel that the value has shifted to their opponent. While neither team will be going to the playoffs, the Hawks come in playing with 'triple revenge,' having lost all three of this season's earlier meetings. The Hornets have won just one of their past seven games and that lone SU victory was a non-cover at Phoenix. Off four straight losses and with their next six games on the road, the Hawks know that they need to take advantage of a struggling guest, now playing out the string. If not, it could be a long time before they win again. Expect the Hawks the hungrier team, as they earn AT LEAST a cover and improve to 12-6 ATS the past 18 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses.
|03-15-18||Stephen F Austin v. Texas Tech -11||Top||60-70||Loss||-110||72 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* GAME OF YEAR). From top-to-bottom, the Big 12 was arguably the best conference in the country this year. Despite playing in that highly competitive conference, Texas Tech still managed to earn 24 victories. Having been here four of the past five years and with Texas Tech slumping down the stretch, the Lumberjacks will be a popular upset pick. Don't buy into that. Expect the Red Raiders' much tougher schedule to pay dividends on Thursday evening, along with the fact that the game is being played in Dallas, the superior team pulling away for a convincing victory.
|03-14-18||Lakers v. Warriors -7||Top||106-117||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF MONTH). Sure, the Lakers are playing well of late. However, getting the champs at this low a line, with the schedule in their favor, is a steal. Of course, the low line is a result of the injuries to Curry and Green. Obviously, those are two significant losses. However, Durant is still going to be the best player on the floor and he's still got enough of a supporting cast to take care of business here. Note that Kuzma hurt his ankle for LA in the third quarter of last night's game. He did return to play in the fourth but it was "clearly bothering him." (according to Lakers reporter Mike Trudel) Even if he goes, its going to be tough to be 100% effective, when playing the second game of a b2b situation, on an ankle thats anything less than 100%. Render him less effective than normal and the Lakers are in trouble; with Ingram out, Kuzma has been doing a lot for them. Either way, note that the Lakers are just 4-6 ATS (3-7 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. Off b2b losses, the champs are going to be in an angry mood. They've only lost two in a row one other time this season and they responded with an 18-point win. The Warriors, whp are well-rested here, are 13-1 SU their last 14, off a loss when favored. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight, covering the small number along the way.
|03-14-18||Harvard +12 v. Marquette||Top||60-67||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on HARVARD (10* BEST BET). Both teams are disappointed to be here. However, while Harvard has itself - and perhaps fate (Seth Jones injury) the Golden Eagles are feeling 'snubbed.' As of this writing, the status of Harvard's Seth Jones remains up in the air. He's a great player and the Crimson could certainly use him tonight. While he was in pain when he left the game against Penn, the knee injury didn't appear that bad - he was also seen shooting on the sidelines of yesterday's practice. So, its definiitely possible that he goes. Either way, the Crimson are an extrenely stingy team. They allow 66.5 ppg. By comparison, Marquette allows 78.5 ppg. Harvard limits opposing teams to a 42.2% fg shooting percentage. Marquette, on the other hand, allows teams to connect on 47.6% of their field goals. With Harvard its last 7-2-1 ATS as an underdog and Marquette feeling disappointed/snubbed at not making the NCAA Tournament, I'm grabbing all those generous points with the superior defensive team.