|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-20-19||Massachusetts v. George Washington +2||Top||67-79||Win||100||22 h 53 m||Show|
I’m playing on George Washington (10* BEST BET). Neither side instills much confidence. UMass is 9-16 and George Washington is 7-18. Both teams come in on horrible losing streaks. The Colonials have lost four straight, most recently to Duquesne, while the Minutemen are 2-11 in their last 13, suffering a heartbreaking OT loss to George Mason in their latest action. This has been a terrible matchup for UMass whenever its come to town though and I believe that trend carries over here. George Washington has won five straight in this series and it’s 22-9 all time at home vs. the Minutemen. UMass has lost eight straighten the road, averaging 62.8 points and conceding 70.6 in those contests. The Minutemen are also just 1-4 ATS in their last I’ve vs. teams with losing records. Add it all up, and I expect George Washington to find a way to get the job done. Play on the home side.
|02-19-19||St. Peter's +7.5 v. Siena||Top||62-72||Loss||-104||11 h 53 m||Show|
I’m playing on Saint Peters (10* BEST BET). Saint Peter’s closes out the regular season with two straight road games. Both will be tough and it’ll be the underdog in each. Including tonight vs. Siena. The Peacocks though won’t be lacking for motivation after dropping seven straight, most recently a 71-65 setback to Rider. The Peacocks have to be feeling confident here as well as they’d prevail 65-50 over the Saints at home in early January. Sienna is firmly in fifth spot (after being picked to finish 10th), but it comes in on terrible form, having dropped two straight at home. Saint Peters is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Siena is just 5-7 ATS at home and only 5-8 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, Peacocks roll.
|02-18-19||Idaho v. Eastern Washington OVER 141||Top||57-82||Loss||-110||13 h 16 m||Show|
I’m playing on the over Idaho/Eastern Washington (10* BLUE CHIP). The lowly 4-20 Idaho Vandals won’t be lacking for motivation here after dropping their tenth straight game (75-47 to Northern Colorado.) The Vandals average 65.3 PPG, which isn’t great obviously. But Idaho has been much worse on the other end of the court by allowing 78.2 PPG. The Eastern Washington Eagles haven’t been much better at 9-15 overall this season, but they did just break a two-game slide with an 88-78 OT win over Northern Colorado on Saturday. Eastern Washington averages and concedes exactly 77.00 PPG this season. Note that Idaho has seen the total go over in all four games it’s played in this year as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, while Eastern Washington has seen the total go over in six of seven as a favorite this season. This number is a little low, play the over.
|02-17-19||Arizona v. Colorado UNDER 140.5||Top||60-67||Win||100||25 h 43 m||Show|
I’m playing on the under Arizona/Colorado (10* BLUE CHIP). Two teams currently on the bubble collide in this one and I think we have a defensive battle on our hands in this one. Arizona is in a “free fall” right now, sitting in tenth place in the Pac 12. Injuries have played a big part in the Wildcats slide. The good news for Arizona though is that it still only sits 2.5 games back of third place. The Wildcats have their work cut out for them to make a seventh straight Tournament, likely needing to sweep the rest of the regular season to earn contention. When these teams played in Arizona on January 3rd, Arizona managed the 64-56 home win and I’m expecting a similar hard-fought, lower-scoring battle here as well. The Buffs have won four straight and they’re also still eyeing a Tournament berth. Most recently Colorado held on for a 77-73 home win over Arizona State. Will Colorado get caught looking ahead to its game vs. Pac 12 leader Washington on the road next Saturday? It better not! Regardless note that Arizona has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 18 following a loss, while Colorado has seen the total go under in its last seven home games where the total is between 135 and 140.5. Play the under.
|02-16-19||Washington v. Washington State +8.5||Top||72-70||Win||100||25 h 29 m||Show|
I’m playing on Washington State (10* REVENGE BEST OF BEST). UW destroyed WSU 85-67 in December, but that was then and this is now. The Cougars played without leading scorer Robert Franks in the first matchup this season, but he’s back in the line-up now (WSU lost all four games he missed in December.) Franks though comes in on top form and I think he’ll be an “X-factor” here as well in this revenge scenario. Ranks posted 34 points and 13 rebounds in a win over ASU last week, before then going off for 31 points and eight boards in a victory over Arizona. WSU lost both games to the Huskies last year as well, but Franks was a bright spot by averaging 19 points and 10.5 boards. UW on the other hand has been dealing with a flu bug, which led to mixed results last week. The Huskies have turned the ball over 52 times in their last three games, including 17 in their most recent setback to ASU. This one has “upset” written all over it, but I’m still going to grab the points. Grab the points, WSU rolls.
|02-15-19||Northern Kentucky +1 v. Wright State||Top||77-81||Loss||-115||25 h 28 m||Show|
I’m playing on Northern Kentucky (10* BEST BET). I like the 20-6 Northern Kentucky Norse to find a way to get the job done here vs. the 15-11 Wright Raiders on Friday night. UNK enters off a 79-64 home win over Oakland last time out, while Wright State also picked up a victory in its latest action, pulling away 83-60 over Detroit on Saturday. The Norse earned the tough 68-64 win in the first matchup between the schools at home back on January 11th and I expect a similar result here as well. This is an important game, as the Norse are in No. 1 in the Horizon League at 10-3, while Wright State is directly behind. But while the Raiders have been on a decent run over the last month, their numbers do match up well against the Norse. As we come down the stretch, I think UNK’s depth will prove to be the difference. Northern Kentucky averages 79.6 PPG an fit allows 67.3. Wright State averages 73.3 PPG and it allows 68.4. I like Northern Kentucky to continue its dominance in this series. Norse roll.
|02-14-19||Northern Colorado v. Idaho +11||Top||75-47||Loss||-110||30 h 46 m||Show|
I’m playing on Idaho (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). After back-to-back wins and victories in five of its last six, I think that Northern Colorado stumbles here. Well, has enough of a letdown anyways for the hungry home side to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. The Bears most recently held on for a 65-59 win over Sacramento State. On the season the Bears average 77.3 PPG. The Vandals only average 68.8, but after losing nine in a row, we definitely don’t have to question Idaho’s focus this evening. This is way too many points to be giving up, as Idaho just took Northern Colorado to OT in a loss just last month. The Vandals play with revenge and they’re desperate for a victory of any sorts. Northern Colorado runs out of gas on Thursday and the home side keeps it much closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points, Vandals roll.
|02-13-19||South Florida v. UCF -6.5||Top||65-78||Win||100||25 h 46 m||Show|
I’m playing on UCF (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE) Clearly this is a big game. UCF sits a half game ahead of USF in the AAC standings. In a contest like this, I think that the “home floor” advantage is going to be significant. USF almost got caught “looking ahead” to this one, as it needed OT to get past lowly ECU 72-68 at home last time out. The Bulls were sloppy, turning the ball over 20 times and I think they’re going to struggle in this difficult arena as well. UCF downed SMU 71-65 on the road in its latest action. The Knights have to be feeling supremely confident that they can keep the momentum rolling as well as they’ve covered four straight at home in this series. Lay the points, UCF rolls.
|02-12-19||Pittsburgh v. Boston College -2.5||Top||57-66||Win||100||25 h 51 m||Show|
I’m playing on Boston College (10* SPECIAL) BC will be desperate to avoid another loss here and drop down in the cellar of the ACC. A date vs. the hapless Panthers is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as Pittsburgh comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. The Panthers weakness this year? Clearly it’s been their play on the road, as they enter having lost five straight conference road games. Pittsburgh has injury issues to deal with as well, as starting forward Malik Ellison is expected to be out for a second straight game with an injury. After a 67-57 loss to the Orange, BC looks to bounce back at home. The Eagles have responded well in this spot as well, going 4-1 ATS in their last five after two or more consecutive road losses. The Panthers on the other hand are a miserable 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road dog of six points or less or pick. Look for home floor to play a big role in the final outcome. Lay the points, Eagles roll.
|02-11-19||Kansas +2 v. TCU||Top||82-77||Win||100||27 h 44 m||Show|
I’m playing on Kansas (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, Kansas has issues. It’s playing through injuries and it’s lost four of its last seven, but it got back on track with a win at home over OKS on Saturday and I believe the storied program can carry that momentum over here vs. a complacent TCU side which has won straight over OKS and Iowa State. Here’s Kansas coach Bill Self on tonight’s game: “We did not have any [energy] in Manhattan (against Kansas State),” Self assessed. “We have to go down there (to TCU) with a purpose and a focus. People talk about running plays and all that. It doesn’t matter what you run as long as you have energy and passion. It’s contagious. I think we have some guys out there we can feed off of.”
TCU’s been playing a lot better of late, but you’d think that the way the team reacted after its first road win vs. a ranked team in 21 years last time out that they’d actually won the National Championship. After that emotional win, I think an immediate letdown is imminent here.
Clearly the outright isn’t out of the question, but in a game which I foresee coming down to whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.
|02-10-19||East Carolina +14 v. South Florida||Top||68-72||Win||100||22 h 29 m||Show|
I’m playing on East Carolina (10* BEST BET) Would anyone fault the Bulls for looking past their lowly opponent today? While I’m stopping short in calling for the outright, I do think that the Bulls, who enter having won four straight, will come into this one a bit complacent. The Pirates won’t be lacking for motivation today that’s for sure as they’ve lost two in a row and 13 of their first 22. Not surprisingly the Pirates play with revenge here after falling 77-57 at home earlier in the year. But with a game at UCF up next for USF, the team sitting just one spot ahead of it in the standings, I think the home side not only comes out complacent, but it also gets caught looking ahead. It’s a perfect storm of situational factors working in favor of the visitors today. Grab the points, ECU rolls.
|02-09-19||Minnesota v. Michigan State -13||Top||55-79||Win||100||19 h 0 m||Show|
I’m playing on Michigan State (10* MAIN EVENT). Enough is enough! After three straight losses, I’m expecting the home side to lay the hammer down from start to finish here. After starting the Big 10 season at 9-0, the Spartans are now 9-3 after a shocking setback to Illinois earlier in the week. Despite the losing streak though, MSU remains one of the top teams in the nation on paper and I simply have a hard time seeing the Golden Gophers keeping pace. The Spartans average 119.6 points per 100 possessions and they allow only 98.6 points per 100 possessions. The Gophers come in having dropped two straight themselves. Minnesota averages 110.2 points per 100 possessions and it allows 97.5. MSU has done well in this spot for bettors as well, going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 (the Gophers on the other hand are still only 5-12 ATS in their last 17 on the road!) Lay the the points, Spartans roll.
|02-08-19||St. Louis v. St. Joe's +3||Top||61-91||Win||100||24 h 30 m||Show|
I’m playing on St. Joseph’s (10* BEST BET) This is a revenge game for the Hawks after they feel 68-57 on the road in the first matchup this season. St. Louis enters off a satisfying 73-60 home win over Dayton, while St. Joe’s comes in hungry after its 89-63 loss to La Salle on the road. The Hawks are 0-5 on the road in league play, but there was a silver lining behind their latest loss as they’d go on to hit a season-high 14 threes. The Hawks are out for revenge and they’re desperate for a victory. Note as well that Saint Louis is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year and only 5-11 ATS when playing the role of favorite, while St. Joe’s is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog of six points or less or pick. I think a little “home cooking” is just what St. Joe’s needs here in this situation. Grab the points.
|02-07-19||Arkansas-Little Rock v. Troy State -5.5||Top||84-70||Loss||-110||26 h 36 m||Show|
I’m playing on Troy (10* PERS FAV) Arkansas Little Rock is in last place in the Sun Belt Conference. Arkansas Little Rock did beat Troy and Alabama earlier in the season, but it comes in having lost five straight. The Trojans come in having lost three straight (all on the road), but they’ll be eager for revenge and to bounce back in familiar surroundings. The Trojans struggled defensively in their latest setback to South Alabama, but they were very efficient offensively, shooting 56.6 percent from the floor and 52.6 percent from range. Facing putrid Arkansas Little Rock, I like the Trojans to carry that offensive momentum over here as well (Little Rock averages 74.8 PPG and Troy averages 77.0). I think Arkansas Little Rock’s road issues continue. Lay the points, Troy rolls.
|02-06-19||Baylor +3 v. Texas||Top||72-84||Loss||-115||27 h 15 m||Show|
I’m playing on Baylor (10* MAIN EVENT) I like the 15-6 Baylor Bears to score the slight upset on the road (that said, I’m still grabbing the points!) Baylor is 6-2 in the Big 12 and it comes in on top form. The Bears have won six straight overall and six straight in this series. The Longhorns on the other hand have lost three of four, including most recently at Iowa State 65-60 on Saturday. Baylor’s rolling, but it’s still not ranked. The Bears smashed TCU 90-65 at home most recently and I look for them to carry that momentum over here. The Longhorns are only 4-5 in league play and they’re only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 at home. Baylor on the other hand is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. the conference and 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road. Grab the points, Baylor rolls.
|02-05-19||Bowling Green v. Western Michigan +4.5||Top||85-72||Loss||-105||26 h 28 m||Show|
I’m playing on Western Michigan (10* VIOLATOR) I think the “hungrier” home side keeps this one close late. WMU is 6-15 overall and it’s going to be eager to snap an eight-game slide. Would anyone fault the 15-6 Bowling Green Falcons for coming in a tiny bit complacent here? They’re 11-1 in their last 12 and they enter off their biggest win of the campaign at home over Buffalo last Friday. It is considered by most as being the programs biggest victory in over a decade. This is a revenge game as well for the Broncos after they were whipped 79-48 at the Stroh Center on January 19th. WMU is desperate for a league victory and I think the conditions are finally right for that scenario to happen. That said, in a game which I envision coming down to the final moments, let’s grab the points.
|02-04-19||Fairfield v. Siena -5||Top||50-61||Win||100||28 h 32 m||Show|
10* play on Siena (10* PERS FAV) I think Fairfield stumbles on the road here. The Stags have been alternating wins/losses over their last four games, including holding on for a 57-52 victory over Marist in their most recent. Fairfield averages 69.4 PPG, while Siena averages 63.2. The Saints though make it up on the other end of the court and they enter on top form having won five of their last seven. The Saints have had the Stags “number” in this matchup of late, going 4-1 ATS the last five in the series. The Stags are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five on the road. I think home floor is big for Siena as I look for the Saints to continue their dominance in this match-up. Lay the points, Siena rolls.
|02-03-19||East Carolina v. Connecticut -13||Top||52-76||Win||100||21 h 31 m||Show|
10* PERS FAV on Connecticut. I’m expecting a decisive victory today for the 12-9 UConn Huskies over the 9-12 ECU Pirates. The Pirates have yet to win on the road in conference action and I think they’ll have a difficult time again here. Since joining the ACC, East Carolina hasn’t won more than six league games and it’s 7-33 on the road in conference play overall. And after holding on for 66-65 win over Tulane on Thursday, an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent in my opinion (note the Pirates are 0-7 on the road this year, shooting a putrid 18.9 percent from range and 37.3 percent overall, while also getting outscored by 18.5 points in the process!) UConn is 6-1 in this matchup. The Huskies are 11-2 at home, averaging 82.2 PPG and outscoring their opposition by 16.0 PPG in those contests. This one screams blowout. Lay the point, because UConn rolls.
|02-02-19||North Texas -7 v. Charlotte||Top||73-66||Push||0||23 h 2 m||Show|
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on North Texas. I think this spread could/should be a lot larger. UNT is 18-4, but it won’t be taking anything for granted here as it looks to move back on top of the conference. The Mean Green most recently fell 72-61 to ODU this past Thursday to drop to second in the standings. A game vs. lowly Charlotte is just what the doctor ordered to snap the slide. The 49ers are terrible, 5-16 overall and just 2-8 in Conference play, including a 65-61 loss to Rice last time out. UNT though has been money in the bank for bettors in this spot, going 7-1 ATS in its last eight after scoring 62 points or less in a conference loss in its previous outing. I’m laying the points and expect the Mean Green to roll!
|02-01-19||Davidson -2 v. St Bonaventure||Top||75-66||Win||100||26 h 25 m||Show|
I’m playing on DAVIDSON (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE) After three straight wins, I look fro Davidson to continue that progression and to find a way to get the job done vs. the Bonnies, who have two in a row. Davidson is 15-5 overall and 6-1 in A-10 action, most recently holding on for a 54-53 win at Saint Louis. Last season Davidson outlasted St. Bonaventure in a thrilling triple OT contest, but I’m expecting a much more decisive victory tonight. The Bonnies feature plenty of talent, but they still feature three freshman in the starting lineup, making it the only team in the conference to have that many. St. Bonaventure is also just 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning records. Look for Davidson’s depth and experience to prove to be too much for the Bonnies once again.
|01-29-19||Ohio State +9 v. Michigan||Top||49-65||Loss||-109||11 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on OHIO STATE (10* BEST BET). Off an upset win at Nebraska, losing streak now in the rear view mirror, I expect the Buckeyes to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Note that they're a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS) the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit upset (SU win as an underdog) win. During the same span, they're 4-0 ATS, after having dropped five of their previous six games. The Wolverines are tough but not unbeatable. They were laying -12.5 points for their last home game and won by only two. Expect them to have their hands full, once again. Grab the points.
|01-28-19||Duke v. Notre Dame +14||Top||83-61||Loss||-105||25 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on NOTRE DAME (10* MAIN EVENT). Needless to say, Duke has some impressive players. That said, I feel that the Blue Devils are laying too many points here. Duke's last five games have been decided by an average of seven points, none of those by more than 15. The Irish, 14-7-1 ATS the last 22 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 150s, got blown out by Virginia last time out. That was their first loss by more than 15 all season though and they're going to be highly motivated to avoid a repeat performance. It hasn't happened often over the years but, if we go back we find that the Irish are 2-0 ATS when off a home loss of 20 or more. Expect them to improve on those stats with their best effort this evening.
|01-27-19||Florida State v. Miami-FL +4||Top||78-66||Loss||-110||8 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). The Seminoles have shown no reason to believe that they can cover as road favorites. In fact, they're 0-10-1 ATS the last 11 times that they were road favorites, or pick'em. Thats ugly. That includes an 0-6-1 ATS mark as road favorites of six or less, five of those resulting in outright losses. The Hurricanes hung tough at Tallahassee a couple of weeks ago, losing by six as 10-point underdogs. They're 10-3 ATS (12-1 SU!) the last 13 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. They're also 6-2 SU/ATS the last eight times that they were off b2b conference losses, 2-0 ATS this season. Expect them to bounce back with a big effort en route to AT LEAST the cover.
|01-26-19||Auburn v. Mississippi State||Top||84-92||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The SEC is deep and full of talented teams. These two are among them. Auburn has beaten the Bulldogs each of the past two seasons. While this season's Tigers are another solid team, I expect an experienced MSU team, playing on its home floor, to rise to the occasion and get some payback. Auburn is mediocre on the road. The Bulldogs are 10-1 on this floor, 29-5 the past few seasons. They brought more back from last year than did Auburn and I expect that to be evident here. Homecourt proves the difference.
|01-26-19||Marquette v. Xavier OVER 144||Top||87-82||Win||100||6 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on Marquette/Xavier OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). The Musketeers has real trouble scoring when these teams met at Marquette. Playing on their home floor, they're going to have considerably more offensive success. Stopping Marquette is an entirely different matter. The Golden Eagles can and do score anywhere. The OVER is 17-7 their last 24 on the road, 3-1 this season. This season's road games have averaged 164.5 combined points, each producing a minimum of 145. Last season's game produced 159 points. However, it had an O/U line of 164.5. We're working with a much lower number here and I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair.
|01-24-19||Green Bay v. Northern Kentucky -9||Top||65-87||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on NORTHERN KENTUCKY (10* VIOLATOR). The Norse won both meetings last year. For the game here, they were laying -16.5 points. This season, with the line having come from its opener adding to the value, we're getting them at a considerably lower number. The Norse are undefeated at home this season and they're coming in hot. This season's 11-0 record brings them to 35-4 on this floor the past 2+ years. The Norse are going to be put up a big number tonight. They've scored 73 or more in six or their last seven, 91 and 82 their last two games. Note that they're 9-3-1 ATS (10-3 SU) the past 13 times that they were off b2b games where they scored 80 or more. The Phoenix have allowed 76 or more points in 10 straight games, 80 or more in all but one of those. For the season, they allow an obscene 87.6 ppg on the road. The defensively-challenged Phoenix have played two road games in 2019. Both resulted in double-digit losses. Expect more of the same here.
|01-23-19||Purdue v. Ohio State +1.5||Top||79-67||Loss||-105||10 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. Winless in 2019, the Buckeyes badly need this one. I expect them to rise to the occasion and get it. Note that the Buckeyes are 3-1 ATS the past four times that they were listed as home underdogs, or pick'em. Lets not forget that they're 37-11 on this floor the past 2+ seasons. As of this writing, most books have the O/U line at 140.5. I mention that as Purdue is just 6-16 ATS (5-17 SU!) the past 22 times it played a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range, 1-4 ATS their last five in that situation. Last season's games were both decided by a single point, each time winning once. Over recent years, the Buckeyes have dominated the Boilermakers though, particularly here in Columbus. This one may well come down to the wire, too. In the end, look for the Buckeyes to be the team which emerges victorious.
|01-22-19||Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan -2||Top||80-67||Loss||-106||10 h 51 m||Show|
'm playing on EASTERN MICHIGAN (10* VIOLATOR). Bowling Green comes in on an impressive winning streak. However, I believe that Eastern Michigan opened as the favorite for good reason and I expect the Falcons' run to come to an end here. After losing a pair of OT games against the Falcons last season, the Eagles have had this one circled. This is an experienced team which brought back most of last year's players; they haven't forgotten. Keep in mind that many picked the Eagles to finish near the top of the MAC West and the Falcons to finish in, or near, the basement of the East. The Eagles won their last game on this floor by a score of 95-61. Expect another win and cover tonight.
|01-21-19||Virginia Tech +4 v. North Carolina||Top||82-103||Loss||-105||10 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on VT (10* BEST BET). While the Hokies came up short against Virginia, tonight represents another opportunity for a marquee ACC victory. I expect them to make the most of it. Coach Buzz William had this to say: "In a demented way, when you get your brain beat in, it kind of re-centers you or calibrates you. And then to have a chance to go right back and do it again ... " The Heels are going to want to play at a face pace and thats going to open up plenty of looks for Tech's dangerous outside shooters. The Hokies already bounced back from the Virginia loss by beating up on Wake Forest Saturday. They've been money (10-1 ATS the L11!) when playing with one or less day's rest and I expect a highly motivated effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover this evening.
|01-19-19||Oklahoma v. Texas -3.5||Top||72-75||Loss||-110||14 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Sooners may currently have the higher national ranking but I believe that the Longhorns are favored for good reason. The Sooners, who lost by seven at Texas Tech last time on the road, are 0-2 ATS the last two times that they were road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. Going back further finds them at 15-23-1 ATS their last 39 in that role. Last time out, the Sooners were upset by K-State. They're 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were off an upset loss in Big 12 play, 0-3 ATS their last three when off a double-digit loss as a favorite. Off three straight close losses, look for Longhorns to finally break through for a victory, covering the small number along the way.
|01-17-19||Oregon State v. Arizona State -4||Top||67-70||Loss||-115||16 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on ASU (10* GAME OF THE YEAR). The favorite is 6-2 ATS the last eight times that these teams have faced each other and I expect those stats to improve here. Indeed, this is a case of the Beavers being in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Sun Devils just got upset by the Cardinal, at Stanford, in their last game. Prior to that, they'd won b2b games by double-digits. The last time that they were off a loss, the Sun Devils responded with a 22-point win over Colorado. Including that result, ASU is 7-2 ATS the past nine times it was off a double-digit Pac-12 loss. Over the years, the Beavers are just 12-20 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. They're also 3-7 ATS (2-8 SU) the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive victories. Lay the points and expect a relatively decisive win for the home team.
|01-16-19||George Washington v. La Salle -6||Top||59-56||Loss||-105||14 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA SALLE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The home team has won and covered seven straight when these teams have faced each other. In six of those seven cases, including each of the past five, the home team has won by double-digits. Going back further finds the favorite at 20-6 ATS the past 26 times that these teams have gotten together. I expect homecourt to again prove the different. The Colonials are off b2b losses, most recently losing by 20 against Richmond. The Explorers are stepping down in class here, after three straight against more difficult opponents, games where they were underdogs. They played well in those games. Now, they're back in the role of favorites, a role which has seen them go 2-1 ATS. While they've covered a few this season, the Colonials are still just 9-19 ATS on the road the past 2+ seasons. The ugly home loss against Richmond exposed some issues. It was already going to be a long year, the loss of Arnoldo Toro in December figures to make it a lot worse. Expect another double-digit win for the home team.
|01-15-19||Florida v. Mississippi State -3||Top||68-71||Push||0||13 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Gators got outscored by a 34-12 margin in terms of "points-in-the-paint," in Saturday's double-digit loss against Tennessee. The Gators' lack of dominant post players is going to hurt them again tonight, as they figure to have to have no answer for 6-11 Holman. The Gators always seem like an attractive underdog, given their program's history. However, they're just 3-11 ATS when getting points the past 2+ seasons. The Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS the past 12 times that they were off b2b SEC losses. Taking advantage of their superior inside game, expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats this evening.
|01-14-19||Florida State v. Pittsburgh +5||Top||62-75||Win||100||13 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* BEST BET). The Panthers have been far better at the betting window this season than the Seminoles. Pittsburgh checks in with an 11-4 ATS record. FSU is just 6-10 ATS. I like how this one sets up for the Panthers. The Noles are off a great game against Duke and deserve a ton of credit for their effort. Unfortunately, despite leaving it all on the floor and having a chance to win, they ultimately came up a bucket short. That's going to take a toll on them here. Note that FSU is just 7-14 ATS its last 21 on the road and that includes an 0-8 ATS record as road favorites, or when in a pick'em spot. The Noles were favored by -6.5 or -7 points the last time that they visited here, coming here with a top-20 ranking. Yet, the Panthers won by double-digits. Catching their guests off the heartbreaker vs. Duke, don't be surprised when the Panthers deliver another upset tonight.
|01-11-19||Purdue v. Wisconsin OVER 137||Top||84-80||Win||100||14 h 9 m||Show|
I'm playing on Purdue/Wisconsin OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). While these teams have historically played some low-scoring games against each other, I believe that this line will prove to be too low. This is a game where I expect both teams to keep scoring the entire way. Both really want this one and neither is going to go away. The Boilermakers aren't playing much defense of late. They allowed 77 last game and 70 before that. They've allowed 60 or more in nine straight games, 67 or more in seven of those. They allow an average of 75.4 ppg on the road. The Boilermakers can still score though, averaging a fairly healthy 77.6 ppg on the season. Thats more than the 74.5 ppg which the Badgers average. However, it should be noted that Wisconsin averages a much higher 80.9 ppg at home. With the Boilermakers at just 2-6 ATS their past eight, note that the OVER is 7-2 the past few seasons, when Purdue had failled to cover in six, or seven, of its previous eight games. With the OVER also at 7-2 the last nine times that the Badgers were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range, look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting.
|01-10-19||Hofstra v. William & Mary +4.5||Top||93-90||Win||100||22 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on WILLIAM & MARY (10* BEST BET). The home team won both meetings last season; the home team is now 11-5 ATS the last 16 in the series. I expect homecourt to again prove the difference. While Hofstra checks in on an extended winning streak and with the much better record overall, thats partly due to William & Mary having played a more difficult schedule. Since hitting conference play, the Tribe have picked up their game. The Tribe's Justin Pierce missed last game and is currently questionable, as of this writing. He's an important player and William & Mary is hopeful to have him available. Even without him, Nathan Knight gives them an average of 24 points and 12 boards per game, while adding an average of five assists and a couple of steals. Matt Milon adds 19 points and seven boards per game while Chase Audige chips in another 13/5. In other words, this team still has plenty of weapons. William & Mary is 4-1 ATS its past five as a home underdog or pick'em. This is a huge game for them and I expect AT LEAST another cover.
|01-09-19||CS-Northridge v. UC Riverside +1||Top||84-83||Push||0||17 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on UC RIVERSIDE (10* BEST BET). The road team had success in this series last season but I expect homecourt to prove significant tonight. Riverside opened as -2 point favorite but by morning the line had come down a bit, providing us with some additional value on the Highlanders. I believe that they're catching the Matadors, who are off b2b hard fought and demoralizing losses, at the right time. Two games ago, the (+14.5) Matadors had a 19-point lead, at San Diego State, with 15 minutes to play. Yet, they allowed the Aztecs to come back and beat them. Next game, the (+7.5 or +8) Matadors lost in OT, against Yale. That's two games in a row, where they had a real chance to score an upset, only to come up short. Those type of losses take a toll and I expect them to catch up with the Matadors tonight. Note that the Matadors are now 0-15 SU (5-10 ATS) the last 15 times that they were off a SU loss where they covered. The Highlanders, on the other hand, come in full of confidence, as they're off a 112-47 "feel-good" blowout win to start the year. Expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game, en route to the win and cover.
|01-03-19||NC State v. Miami-FL +3.5||Top||87-82||Loss||-109||10 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While I like the Hurricanes' chances of winning this one outright, in what could be a close one, I'm happy to grab the points. After going through a tough stretch, the Canes are playing better. Though they haven't been covering, they enter this game off of three straight confidence-building victories. The Wolfpack are just 19-31 ATS the past 50 times that they were listed as road favorites or pick'em, 0-3 ATS their last three in that role. They've only played one true road game this season and that resulted in a loss. They're just 6-14 SU their last 20 on the road. Both last season's meetings were close, Miami winning each by five points. Factoring in those results, the underdog is 10-3-2 ATS the past 15 meetings in this series. Expect at least another cover for the underdog this evening.
|01-01-19||CS-Fullerton v. Washington OVER 136||Top||76-84||Win||100||25 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on Cal State Fullteron / Washington OVER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). The Huskies have been involved in some low-scoring games of late. Those results have helped in providing us with a low number for tonight's game. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. When these teams met last, the O/U number was a much higher 164. Even that wasn't nearly high enough, as Washington won by a 104-88 score. The Titans put up 79 points last time out. In their last road game, they allowed 86. On the season, five of their six road games have finished above the number. Overall, the OVER is 5-2-2 the Titans' last nine games. Seven of those nine produced a minimum of 143 combined points. Expect this one to finish with at least that many, once again.
|12-31-18||Idaho State v. Eastern Washington -140||Top||55-65||Win||100||7 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on EASTERN WASHINGTON (10* MONEY LINE VIOLATOR). Its been a tough start for the Eagles but they're favored here for good reason. The Bengals will be playing their fifth straight away from home and it figures to catch up with them here. The Eagles have played a brutal schedule, one which included the likes of Syracuse, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, San Francisco and South Dakota State. They also faced those teams without Mason Peatling, their top inside threat, while dealing with several other injuries. Peatling and co. are back now though and the tough non-conf. slate will serve them well here. The Eagles were favored by 13 when they hosted the Bengals last season, winning by 11. Expect them to finish on top once again.
|12-28-18||UC-Davis +10 v. Loyola Marymount||Top||59-77||Loss||-105||33 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on UC DAVIS (10* GAME OF WEEK). If you just looked at the records, you'd think that the Aggies (3-8 and 0-5 on the road) would have no chance. However, a closer look shows that Cal Davis has played road games at venues like Arizona, Northern Illinois, Indiana and Arkansas while hosting the likes of San Francisco. In other words, its been a challenging schedule and the sub-500 record isn't surprising. Those tough road games will work in their favor though; they very nearly won at Arizona (2-point loss) last time out and won't be intimidated here. While the Lions are a solid team, they did lose by seven at UC Riverside last time out. Only one of their last five games has resulted in a win of greater than 10 points; prior to the loss last time out, they'd won their previous game by a single point. While the Lions are 2-6 ATS their last eight as home favorites in the 6.5 to 12 range, the Aggies are 6-3 ATS as road underdogs, in the same range, during the same span. Grab the points and don't be surprised if the Aggies take this down to the wire and score the upset.
|12-22-18||Ohio State v. UCLA +5.5||Top||80-66||Loss||-109||8 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). Calls for Steve Alford's firing are growing louder. A blowout loss this afternoon may seal his fate. Though its still December, a loss here is going to really hurt the Bruins' chances of making the NCAA Tournament - as they're unlikely going to be able to pick up enough quality wins after this one. This is still a very talented team though, one absolutely capable of competing with the Buckeyes and beating them. Aware of the situation, I expect them to rise to the occasion and to bring their best game. While I respect the Buckeyes, lets also not forget that they're just 3-7 ATS their last 10 on a neutral court, 11-21 ATS in non-conference play, during that same span. The previous time that the Bruins were off b2b losses, they responded with a 19-point win. Including that result, they're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they'd lost two of their previous three. Look for them to improve on those stats here.
|12-20-18||Northern Illinois v. Northern Kentucky -5.5||Top||62-65||Loss||-109||12 h 9 m||Show|
I'm playing on NORTHERN KENTUCKY (10* PERS FAV). The Norse already beat NIU (in OT) on the road. While the Huskies would love to avenge that loss, its not happening. Not here. The Huskies are 7-24 SU in road lined games the past few seasons while the Norse are 25-3 SU in home lined games. The Huskies won big against lowly Western Illinois last time out. However, that was at home. Their last road game resulted in a 27-point road loss. Also, they're just 5-10 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a double-digit win. After having dropped b2b road games, Northern Kentucky got back on track last time, winning by six against Miami Ohio, another MAC opponent. Note that the Norse are 8-1 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after having dropped two of their previous three games. Expect the Norse to continue their strong play at home, covering the reasonably small number along the way.
|12-19-18||Montana +9 v. Arizona||Top||42-61||Loss||-108||26 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on MONTANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Admitedly, the Grizzlies have had their struggles on the road. However, I feel that they're providing us with excellent value here. The Wildcats are off b2b SU losses and are 0-2-1 ATS their last three. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies returned four starters - and six of their seven top scorers - from last year's NCAA Tournament team. While that team would eventually lose to Michigan, they hung with the Wolverines for the first half. An experienced team with senior leadership, they're not going to be intimidated here. Indeed, I believe this team is better than its shown. While Montana returned the majority of its starting roster, Arizona lost all five of last season's starters. Expect those personnel losses to continue to haunt the Wildcats here, the Grizzlies rising to the occasion, their best effort leading to at least the cover.
|12-14-18||Florida Atlantic v. Arkansas State -123||Top||71-75||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE (10* BEAST). Expect homecourt to be the difference in this one. Playing at Minnesota, the Red Wolves dug themselves a big hole (21-2) out of the gate last time out. They didn't quit though and even rallied for the cover, losing 72-56 as a 20.5 point underdog. They won their last game here by double-digits, a pick'em game vs. Evansville. In fact, they've only played two games here and are 2-0. While the 56 points was a season low, its worth noting that the Wolves are a perfect 7-0 ATS the past couple of years, after scoring 60 or less in their previous game. The Owls lone road game this month resulted in a loss at Bethune-Cookman. Arkansas State won a close one at FAU last season, as 6.5 point underdog. Playing at home, expect the Wolves to finish on top once again.
|12-13-18||Eastern Washington v. San Francisco -18||Top||63-85||Win||100||16 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF. The Dons are rolling. Off their big win against Cal, expect them to carry the momentum into this evening's game against an outclassed Eagles team.
|12-12-18||Murray State v. Southern Illinois -3||Top||80-52||Loss||-109||13 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on SIU (10* GAME OF MONTH). This is a regional rivalry and its an important game for both teams. While the Racers are playing well, I expect homecourt and a stingy Southern Illinois defense to ultimately prove the difference. Murray State won by eight, as a 5-point favorite, at home, last season. However, SIU won by four, as a -2.5 point favorite, in the last meeting here. While the Racers may be 5-0 ATS through six games, they're just 1-1 SU in true road games and they're also only 2-7 ATS the past couple of seasons, after covering the spread in four or five of their previous six games. The Salukis have thrived as small home favorites in recent seasons and come in confident; they're off five straight wins, the last three of which they were favored for. They're 4-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, after having been favored in three straight. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|12-10-18||CS-Fullerton +12.5 v. St. Mary's||Top||66-81||Loss||-110||28 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAL STATE FULLERTON (10* MASTERPIECE). In my opinion, the gap between these teams isn't nearly as big as the pointspread suggests. The Titans brought back most of their depth and four starters from a team which made the NCAA Tournament last season. While the Titans' admittedly record isn't very good, they've had a number of close losses, a couple coming in OT. Only one of their losses by more than 10 points. While the Gaels have won a few in a row, they'd previously lost four straight. Grab the points.
|12-07-18||NC-Greensboro v. Elon +12.5||Top||75-74||Win||100||13 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on ELON (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, the Spartans are a solid team. Last time out, they even gave Kentucky all it could handle. For awhile, at least. Midway through the second half, the Spartans even led the Wildcats. Kentucky closed things out on a big run though; the 78-61 final snapping UNC Greensboro's 6-game winning streak. While they've had a few days off, I expect that loss to take a toll. While the Phoenix have not gotten off to a good start, I believe that they're a little better than they've shown and that the early results have helped in providing us with an extra generous number. The Phoenix love to hit from downtown and they're pretty good at doing so. They're 14-6 ATS over the years, after allowing 90 or more points in their previous game, and I look for them to give their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting.
|12-05-18||Utah State v. BYU||Top||80-95||Win||100||26 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on BYU (10* GAME OF WEEK). While the Aggies have admittedly been playing well, the Cougars have dominated them in recent seasons. Just in the 'Nick' of time, the Cougars get Emery back from a 9-game suspension. He'll provide a much-needed spark to the offense. Keep in mind that the junior has made 172 three-pointers, on 38% shooting, over the course of his career. Its not too late for the Cougars, who had high hopes coming in, to salvage their season. Expect them to rise to the occasion with a much-needed victory.
|11-29-18||Alabama +7 v. UCF||Top||64-70||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on ALABAMA (10* BEST BET). The Knights upset the Tide last season, winning by three points (65-62) at Alabama. The Tide, who were favored by -9.5 points for that game, haven't forgotten and are coming in ready to play. Though they haven't been covering, this is a confident team which has won three straight and five of six. Like last year's game, expect this one to come right down to the wire, the visiting underdog again coming away with AT LEAST another cover.
|11-28-18||Monmouth v. Kentucky -24||Top||44-90||Win||100||26 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* GAME OF MONTH). I've only played on the Wildcats once this season. They came through for me in that 11/14 game, the only game that they've covered this season, easily disposing of North Dakota by a 38-point margin. They're laying a similar number here as they were for that one and I'm again expecting another lopsided win and cover. Monmouth is an ugly 0-7 on the season. Even teams like CS-Fullerton and Lehigh were able to beat them by 24. Monmouth wasn't on the road for either of those either. Needless to say, Kentucky is a far stronger opponent. While the ATS wins haven't been there, the Cats have now won five straight by double-digits. Expect them to pull away and win this one by more than 30.
|11-27-18||East Tennessee State v. Georgia Southern -4||Top||69-64||Loss||-105||10 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN (10* FULLCOURT PRESS). Both these teams have played well thus far, both have been money at the betting window. That said, playing at home, I expect the Eagles to have the advantage. The Buccaneers are perfect at home but only 1-2 on the road. The Eagles just beat a trio of respectable tams (FAU, Pepperdine and Montana) on a neutral court and they won their two home games by an average score of 118.5 to 70. While they did start out with a 'cupcake,' the last four wins have been legit. Last season, playing at home, the Bucs hammered the Eagles. Senior guard Tookie Brown and co. haven't forgotten. Tonight, they get some payback.
|11-25-18||IUPU Ft Wayne v. Cleveland State +4.5||Top||82-79||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND STATE (10*). While neither of these are "big name" teams, I believe that the Vikings are offering us excellent value as underdogs. The Mastadons are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road, allowing an average of 98 points. They're now 8-23 ATS their last 31 road lined games. Though wins have been hard to come by, I like the direction Dennis Felton has the Vikings going. Though I like their chances of an outright upset, I'm happy to grab the points.
|11-21-18||Harvard v. San Francisco -6||Top||57-61||Loss||-103||16 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF (10* PERS FAV). The Dons are playing with a ton of confidence. Sure, the competition has been weak. However, this team can improve to 5-0 under Kyle Smith for the first time. They've won all their games by a minimum of 32 points and their +35.8 point average margin of victory ranks fourth in the country. A +21.3 edge in rebounds ranks second in the country. While its true that Harvard has been strong at the betting window in recent seasons and also true that the team brought back nearly all its pieces from last season, the Crimson will be playing their third straight on the road. A 2-point loss at Rhode Island last time out figures to take a toll. So does the absence of Bryce Aiken and Seth Towns. Those are two huge losses for this team. Expect the Dons to keep on rolling for another day.
|11-19-18||VCU v. Temple -2.5||Top||57-51||Loss||-108||15 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* PERS FAV). The Owls and Rams will be facing each other at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. I expect the Owls to have the advantage. Over the years, we've gotten used to the Rams consistently being a very strong squad. Indeed, prior to last season, the Rams had won a minimum of 24 games in 11 consecutive seasons. Last season, they got a new coach and fell to just 17-14. Top players Tillman and Williams prevented them from stumbling even further. However, they too have now moved on. That means that the Rams are going to have trouble with teams like Temple. Unlike the Rams, the Owls brought back most of their pieces from last season's team. Expect their experience and depth to prove the difference Monday night.
|11-17-18||St. Louis +7.5 v. Seton Hall||Top||66-64||Win||100||27 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on ST LOUIS. The Billikens have won all three of their games and come in confident. On the other hand, the Pirates may have lost a little of their swagger; they were hammered by 23 points, at Nebraska, last time out. The Pirates have lost a lot: Desi Rodriguez (17.8 ppg), Khadeen Carrington (15.6 ppg and 4.4 apg), and all-time rebounding leader Angel Delgado (13.6 ppg and 11.8 rpg). Expect them to have their hands full.
|11-15-18||Oregon v. Iowa +4||Top||69-77||Win||100||14 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on IOWA (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams will be playing at MSG. While thats technically a neutral court, I expect it to favor the Hawkeyes. Iowa has played here before, as the Big Ten Tourney was played here last season. (The Hawkeyes beat Illinois and lost to Michigan, the eventual champ, in OT.) Oregon, on the other hand, hasn't played here in more than a decade. While the Ducks are indeed very talented, they're also relatively young. This game is going to be a big deal to them and I expect there to be some nervousness. With an O/U line in the low 150s, as this play is posted, note that the Ducks are just 3-10 ATS the past 13 times that they played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. Don't expect them to improve on those stats tonight.
|11-14-18||North Dakota v. Kentucky -26||Top||58-96||Win||100||27 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on KENTUCKY (10* VIOLATOR). The Wildcats opened as the biggest favorite on the Wednesday board. However, I think that line could have easily been even higher, as I'm expecting an absolute destruction. As you probably saw or heard, the Cats got embarrassed by Duke on opening night. Off that 118-84 blowout loss, the worst since before Calipari came here, they came out a little flat out of the gate for their next game and found themselves trailing 44-37 against Southern Illinois. Kentucky woke up though and won 71-59. That wasn't quite enough for the cover but it absolutely provides them with positive momentum. Calipari had this to say: "I just said, be happy we won and figure it out. I've got a pretty good idea of how I'm going to do this now, and I'm just glad that we really got smashed, so there's no question. If you demand a lot, you get a lot. If you accept mediocrity, you're going to get it every time. ... I was very aggressive today." Stepping down in class, expect Calipari to keep the pedal to the metal the whole way Wednesday, en route to a 30+ point blowout win.
|11-12-18||Louisiana-Monroe v. Texas -20||Top||55-65||Loss||-105||10 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Longhorns are 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS thus far. Off a hard fought win over Arkansas, tonight's opponent provides the perfect opportunity for a "feel good" blowout win. Texas won 80-59 when these teams last met and the gap figures to be even larger this time. LA Monroe's games against Jackson State and Millsaps College won't have prepared them for the type of athleticism and intensity that they're going to see tonight. This one gets ugly.
|11-09-18||Toledo v. Oakland +6||Top||87-86||Win||100||11 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* BEST BET). When these teams met at Toledo last season, the line was basically a pick'em. (Toledo closed as a 1-point favorite and won 87-74.) Oakland played that game without one of its top players, Jaylen Hayes, who was out with suspension. Hayes has moved on, as have Nunn and Walker. All three averaged 17 or more points last season. So, those are indeed some big shoes to fill. That said, this is a well-coached team and the cupboard isn't nearly as bare as many seem to feel. The Golden Griffins come in with some confidence, winning their first game by a 99-44 margin. Sure, the opponent (Kalamazoo) was a joke but the fact that they've got that big win under their belt will benefit them. While the Rockets should have another good season and do return a number of key players, the loss of Fletcher (18.1 ppg, 8 rbg) is significant. (He had 20/8 in last year's game.) Last year's game was closer than the final score indicated, the Grizzlies trimming the gap twice in the second half. While I respect the Rockets, I expect the Grizzlies to give them all they can handle here.
|11-06-18||La Salle v. Temple -9||Top||67-75||Loss||-112||26 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* BEST BET). Fran Dunphy succeeded John Chaney as Temple head coach in 2006. In 12 seasons with the Owls, he's got a 247-152 record. Today's game figures to have extra special meaning to Dunphy, for a few reasons. Its his final year as head coach, he'll step aside after this game. So, this will be the last time that he plays a season opener. Additionally, its the last time that he'll face La Salle, unless the teams end up meeting in tournament play. Thats noteworthy as Dunphy graduated from La Salle. Over the years, he's gone 28-8 against his alma mater, 15-4 as a coach of the Owls. Expect him to have his team ready, the players recognizing the significance of the game to their coach and pulling away for a double-digit win.
|04-02-18||Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145.5||Top||62-79||Win||100||23 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on Villanova/Michigan to finish UNDER the total. While the Wildcats have an excellent offense, they're also more than capable defensively. Here, they'll face an extremely stingy Michigan team which has now seen the UNDER go 8-2 its last 10 in this tournament. Villanova has seen four its last five tournament championship games fall below the total. The Wildcats have also seen the UNDER go 14-7 the past 21 times that they played with one or less day's rest in between games. Look for those stats to improve here, the final combined score again proving lower than many will be expecting.
|03-31-18||Kansas v. Villanova UNDER 155||Top||79-95||Loss||-110||13 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on Villanova/Kansas UNDER the total (10* TOTAL MAIN EVENT). While I respect both offenses, I believe that this line will prove to be too high. Due to their skill on offense, people often forget that Villanova also allowed fewer points per game than any other team in the Big East. The Wildcats have held two of their last three opponents to fewer than 60 points. Going back a little further reveals that they've held six of their last seven opponents to 70 or less. Kansas was an underdog in its game against Duke but managed to score the upset. While Duke did score 81 points, nine of those came in OT. If that game didn't go to OT, the final combined score would have fallen well short of the total. Even with that game finishing above the number, the UNDER is still a healthy 8-3 the last 11 times that the Jayhawks were listed as underdogs. Going back further finds the UNDER at a lucrative 46-20, excluding pushes, the last 66 times that Kansas was listed as an underdog. When these teams met in March a couple of years ago, the O/U line was in the mid 140s. Yet, the teams combined for just 123 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected.
|03-27-18||Western Kentucky v. Utah +1||Top||64-69||Win||100||102 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on UTAH (10* BEST BET). After failing to qualify for the 'Big Dance,' t would have been easy for either of these teams to pack it in. Neither have done so. Each has put together an impressive run to get here. I believe that that the Utes bring a little more to the table though. Off a victory over St. Mary's last game, note that Utah was only the second team (Gonzaga also did so) to defeat the Gaels on their home floor this season. The Hilltoppers have been all over the place this season. Costa Rica, Bahamas and last week in LA, prior to their visit to Stillwater. While they've had plenty of time off, I believe that all the travel will finally take a toll. Expect the Utes, last team left standing from the Pac-12, to finish on top.
|03-25-18||Texas Tech +6.5 v. Villanova||Top||59-71||Loss||-105||5 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* MAIN EVENT). Admittedly, the Wildcats are a very strong team. However, I believe the same can be said of the Red Raiders. Nova did pull away late for a double-digit win against WVU. However, the Mountaineers gave them all they could handle almost the entire way. Keep in mind that this may be the Raiders' best team. They've beaten Kansas this season and they're going to come in confident that they can win this game. Expect the Raiders to improve to 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they played with one day's rest, or less, in between games.
|03-24-18||Florida State v. Michigan OVER 143||Top||54-58||Loss||-115||32 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on Florida State/Michigan to finish OVER the total (10* TOURNEY TOTAL OF YEAR). While the Wolverines may not reach 99 again, as they did against Texas A&M, they should still have plenty of offensive success. Prior to their dominating defense effort against Gonzaga, the Noles had allowed 70 or more points in eight of their previous nine. Note that FSU has seen the OVER go 10-3 the past 2+ seasons, after allowing 60 or fewer points in its previous game. Meanwhile, Michigan has now scored more than 70 in 10 of its last 12. The Noles should also have plenty of offensive success. They''ve scored 74 or more in seven of their last nine, topping the 80 mark in three of those. With an O/U line in the 140s, note that the OVER is 6-3 when Michigan played a game with an O/U line in the 140s and that FSU has seen the OVER go 9-4 when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s. With both teams topping the 70 mark, expect that combined 15-7 'over' mark to improve Saturday night.
|03-23-18||Syracuse v. Duke -11.5||Top||65-69||Loss||-103||13 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on DUKE (10* SWEET 16 GOY) The Orange deserve a lot of credit for beating a good Michigan State team. Upsetting TCU was also impressive. In both cases, they were able to slow down the tempo and play excellent defense against an opponent which was unfamiliar with their style. This time, however, they face a team which knows how to beat them. The Blue Devils already hammered the Orange by 16 points a month ago. Including that loss, each of Syracuse's last three losses all came by 'double-digits,' each by a minimum of 15. While the Orange are obviously an extremely stingy team, the Blue Devils' advantage on the offensive side of the ball is much bigger. The Blue Devils are playing at a very high level right now; their last six victories have all been by double-digits. They've come by an average of 19.5 points
|03-22-18||Kansas State +6 v. Kentucky||Top||61-58||Win||100||84 h 14 m||Show|
I'm playing on K-STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Kentucky comes in on a roll. Always well coached and with always loaded with excellent athletes, Kentucky has to feel fortunate with the way things are working out. I fully expect them to receive a very tough test here though. Note that prior to blowing out Buffalo, which had been "trash-talking," Kentucky's previous three victories had all come by five or fewer points. I've stated several times that I felt the Big 12 was the strongest conference, "from top to bottom," this season. While they may have gotten a fortunate matchup with UMBC, with four teams from the Big 12 in the Sweet 16, its clear that the (K-State) Wildcats are "battle-tested" from conference play. KSU has been playing without its top player, Dean Wade. However, as of Monday morning, Wade stated the following: "I am like 98 percent sure I will play. I don't know if they can keep me out of this one. This is big time. I'm excited. It gives me another couple of days to heal. I am starting to feel a lot better. My day-by-day gets a lot better. This gives me a few more days to heal and recover." Its true that Kentucky has historically dominated K-State. However, Weber has been here before. His team has a score to settle and he's looking to prove his critics wrong. I expect Weber to have his team ready and I expect them to take this game down to the wire with a great shot at the outright upset.
|03-18-18||Marshall v. West Virginia -11.5||Top||71-94||Win||100||36 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on WVU (10* 2ND RND GAME OF YEAR). The Mountaineers get a very favorable matchup here. I expect this well-coached team to take full advantage. The Herd come in hot and they're victory over Wichita State shows that they're worthy of respect. Still, the battle-tested Mountaineers, now 21-8-1 ATS their last 30 NCAA tournament games, 9-3 ATS when favored in the -9.5 to -12 range, are going to simply be too much for them. The Herd allowed an average of 79 ppg. Playing against much tougher opposition, the Mountaineers allowed 69 ppg.
You may recall that these two schools, which are less than 200 miles apart, used to play each other twice annually. The series stopped a few years back (2014) and there was some bad blood in the process. After the Marshall coach said "we're back" and called him "afraid," WVU coach Huggins responded with: "He can say I'm afraid all he wants. I've probably coached 1,116 more games than he has. It's ridiculous to say something like that. We're afraid. Yeah, we're really afraid. It's crazy, you know? We’ve beaten Duke. Mike is a pretty good coach. Was I afraid? I wasn't afraid playing Duke. Played Boeheim. We used to play him every year. Great coach. I wasn't afraid. Why would I be afraid? The thing that’s most laughable, and I'll get in trouble for saying it I know, but I'm to the point in my life where I really don't care. How about this? ‘We're back.’ That was their sixth loss in a row. ‘We’re back.’ ‘We're back’ all right. Honestly it's laughable ..... "
Huggins and the Mountaineers did get to face Marshall in 2015, after that exchange. WVU won by 18. Expect the Mountaineers, 14-7 ATS their last 21 (excluding pushes) lined games against teams which allow 77 or more points per game, to keep the pedal to the medal the entire way, en route to another convincing victory.
|03-17-18||Florida v. Texas Tech -1.5||Top||66-69||Win||100||13 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* PERS FAV). The Red Raiders received a tougher test in the first round than the Gators. Those results have helped in keeping this line very low. I feel that low number is providing us with excellent value with a very strong Texas Tech team. Sure, the Raiders were tested. That can be a good thing. They responded to that test by pulling away for a 10-point win, narrowly missing the cover. Note that they're 11-2 the past 13 times that they were off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewer points, 21-4 their past 25 in that situation. The Big 12 was tough this season. Yet, the Raiders thrived. They hit 46.4% of their field goals on offense. Florida, by comparison, hits 43.4%. On the other side, the Gators allow opposing teams to hit 42.7% of their field goals, while allowing 69.2 ppg. Texas Tech, on the other hand, allows 64.6 ppg, opposing teams hitting a mere 40.6% of their field goals. Arguably stronger on both sides of the ball, expect the Red Raiders to punch their ticket for the next round, covering the small number along the way.
|03-15-18||Stephen F Austin v. Texas Tech -11||Top||60-70||Loss||-110||72 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS TECH (10* GAME OF YEAR). From top-to-bottom, the Big 12 was arguably the best conference in the country this year. Despite playing in that highly competitive conference, Texas Tech still managed to earn 24 victories. Having been here four of the past five years and with Texas Tech slumping down the stretch, the Lumberjacks will be a popular upset pick. Don't buy into that. Expect the Red Raiders' much tougher schedule to pay dividends on Thursday evening, along with the fact that the game is being played in Dallas, the superior team pulling away for a convincing victory.
|03-14-18||Harvard +12 v. Marquette||Top||60-67||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on HARVARD (10* BEST BET). Both teams are disappointed to be here. However, while Harvard has itself - and perhaps fate (Seth Jones injury) the Golden Eagles are feeling 'snubbed.' As of this writing, the status of Harvard's Seth Jones remains up in the air. He's a great player and the Crimson could certainly use him tonight. While he was in pain when he left the game against Penn, the knee injury didn't appear that bad - he was also seen shooting on the sidelines of yesterday's practice. So, its definiitely possible that he goes. Either way, the Crimson are an extrenely stingy team. They allow 66.5 ppg. By comparison, Marquette allows 78.5 ppg. Harvard limits opposing teams to a 42.2% fg shooting percentage. Marquette, on the other hand, allows teams to connect on 47.6% of their field goals. With Harvard its last 7-2-1 ATS as an underdog and Marquette feeling disappointed/snubbed at not making the NCAA Tournament, I'm grabbing all those generous points with the superior defensive team.
|03-13-18||Florida Gulf Coast +10.5 v. Oklahoma State||Top||68-80||Loss||-108||11 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on FLORIDA GULF COAST (10* MISMATCH). Do the Cowboys deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament? Probably, in my opinion. Regardless of what side of that debate you might be on, they absolutely feel snubbed. Of course, they'll say all the right things about still wanting to come and show everybody how good they are tonight. They surely want to do exactly that. After suffering that type of disappointment and dealing with all the emotion, thats a lot easier said than done though. Regardless of what they say, its likely going to be hard for them to get up for this game. The Eagles have absolutely thrived (20-5 ATS L25!) as underdogs over the years and they've also had plenty of succes in March. Having score more than 90 points nine different times this season, this is a team which can score points with the best of them. While they'd also like to be in the NCAA Tournament, at least they know its their fault they're not there. I expect them to be the hungrier team tonight and am grabbing all the points I can get.
|03-11-18||Davidson v. Rhode Island -2||Top||58-57||Loss||-115||4 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on RHODE ISLAND (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams split a pair of regular season meetings, each winning on its home floor. I expect the Rams to have the advantage in this afternoon's rubber game. While Davidson is playing well, I don't think the Rams are getting enough respect. Not only are they the #1 seed but they're also the defending champs. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are in their first finals since coming over to the A-10. Look for the Rams' big game experience and championship pedigree to show through, as they become the first repeat A-10 champs since Temple did so from 2008-2010, covering the small number along the way.
|03-10-18||North Carolina v. Virginia -4||Top||63-71||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Cavs already dominated the Tar Heels in the regular season meeting. I expect them to finish on top once again this evening. UNC is just 5-9-1 ATS its last 15 tournament championship games. The Tar Heels are also just 4-6-2 ATS the last dozen times that they faced a team which allows 64 or fewer points per game. Of course, at just 53.1 ppg allowed, Virginia falls into that category. Defense wins champiionships. At least, today in the ACC. Expect the #1 seed to make a statement.
|03-09-18||Eastern Michigan v. Toledo -1.5||Top||63-64||Loss||-110||11 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on TOLEDO (10* PERS FAV). The Eagles may have had the edge in the regular season. However, I expect the Rockets to emerge victorious, when it really matters. Both teams won yesterday. Eastern Michigan beat Akron by nine points. Toledo won by only two, against Miami Ohio. While the Eagles' win was arguably more impressive, I expect Toledo's very close margin of victory to work in its favor here. Its also worth pointing out that the Rockets are an outstanding 46-24 ATS their last 70 lined games, when playing with one day or less of rest in between games. (During the same stretch, Eastern Michigan is just 31-44 ATS when doing so.) Thats ancient history though. Right now, this year's Toledo team scores 80.1 ppg on the road while Eastern Michigan score just 68.7 ppg on the road. Expect the Rockets to dictate tempo and for them to finish on top.
|03-08-18||UAB v. Western Kentucky -3.5||Top||70-98||Win||100||11 h 23 m||Show|
I'm playing on WKU (10* VIOLATOR). The Blazers managed to eke out a cover yesterday. However, they're stepping up significantly in class here and I expect them to stumble. WKU is 3-0 ATS its last three on a neutral court and 5-1-1 ATS its last seven, after allowing 80 or more points in its previous game. Even with yesterday's victory, the Blazers are just 2-10 ATS their last 12 neutral site games. I'm laying the small number with what I consider to be the superior team.
|03-07-18||Oklahoma -1 v. Oklahoma State||Top||60-71||Loss||-110||9 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA (10* PERS FAV). Its true that the Sooners had some trouble at the betting window, during the regular season. However, I believe that they'll prove to be a superior team than their instate rivals this evening. The Cowboys closed out the season off b2b wins. However, they haven't won three straight Big 12 games all season. While the Cowboys are 1-5 SU their past six March games, the Sooners are 9-2 SU their last 11 in March. They've got the much stronger offense (86 ppg vs. 76.9 ppg) and I expect that to ultimately prove the difference here.
|03-06-18||CS Sacramento v. Portland State -7||Top||67-71||Loss||-110||31 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND STATE (10* BIG SKY CONF TOURNEY GAME OF YEAR). The Hornets somehow managed to win both regular season meetings. However, when it really counts, I expect the Vikings to win big. Portland State had a good season, finishing with 19 wins. With four wins in their final five games, the Vikings come in with some positive momentum. With this game being played at Reno, a neutral site, its worth noting that this is a team which is comfortable playing away from home. In fact, they had a better record on the road than at home this season, the only team in the Big Sky which can make that claim. At the PK80 Invitational, a neutral site, the Vikings went toe-to-toe with the likes of Duke, Butler and Stanford. They were 3-0 ATS in those games, covering vs. Duke, very nearly upsetting Butler and beating Stanford outright. The Hornets, on the other hand, were a dismal 1-17 away from home, that lone win coming at Portland State. An experienced team, hungry to take the next step, expect the Vikings to avenge those regular season losses in convincing fashion.
|03-05-18||Ohio v. Miami-OH -3||Top||55-68||Win||100||21 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams just faced each other here on Friday. Down at halftime, the Bobcats rallied for a 75-66 victory. They also won (92-87) when they hosted the RedHawks a few weeks ago. However, I expect the RedHawks to have the advantage this evening and feel that they're favored for good reason. Even factoring in Friday's result, the Bobcats are still just 3-11 on the road. They get outscored by an average of 79.5 to 71.1 on the road. On the other hand, the RedHawks are still 8-5 here at home, outscoring teams by average of more than 10 points (77.9 to 67) per game. The RedHawks are 11-7 ATS the past 18 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. Expect them to punch their ticket for the next round, at Cleveland, improving on those 'revenge' stats along the way.
|03-04-18||NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra UNDER 163||Top||93-88||Loss||-110||14 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on Hofstra and UNC Wilmington to finish UNDER the total (10* BEST BET). These teams met twice in February. The first game, on 2/1, had an O/U line of 158 and produced 172 points, a 96-76 blowout for Hofstra. UNC Wilmington returned the favor on 2/10, delivering a 20-point blowout win of their own. That one had an O/U line of 160.5 and produced 160 points. In today's rematch, we're getting an even higher O/U line to work with. I believe it'll prove to be too high. With eight days off in between games, UNCW coach C.B. McGrath has been focusing on improving his team's defense. McGrath noted: "The defensive stuff that we did helps against every team, not just Hofstra. It's just simple concepts that we need to keep drilling." Including the 2/10 result, which snuck below the number by half a point, Hofstra has seen the UNDER go 10-5 the last 15 times that it played a game with an O/U line in the 160s. Expect those stats to improve here, the final combined score finishing lower than many will be expecting.
|03-03-18||Boston College v. Florida State -7.5||Top||76-85||Win||100||17 h 12 m||Show|
I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE (10* GAME OF YEAR). This is a huge game for the Seminoles and I expect them to respond with their very best effort. Senior guard Braian Angola had this to say: "It's one of the most important games of the season. We definitely need to win." Not only will the Noles be honoring their seniors but they'll also be looking to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume. They could certainly use the extra win here. Also, any chance of avoiding playing in the opening round of the ACC Tournament relies on a victory here. Senior Phil Cofer noted: "I think myself and everyone else is definitely locked in. They know that we need this win to move on to the next thing." Look for the Noles, who were upset at BC in January, to send out their seniors in style, improving to 5-1-1 ATS (6-1 SU) the past seven times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss.
|03-02-18||Iowa State v. Oklahoma -10||Top||60-81||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Cyclones upset the Sooners when these teams met at Iowa State. With this evening's rematch being played at Oklahoma, I expect the revenge-minded Sooners to return the favor. Throw in the fact that the Sooners are playing their final regular season home game AND that the Cyclones swept them last season and we should have an extremely motivated OU team. Note that the Sooners are 14-9 ATS (17-6 SU) the past 23 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. The Cyclones average 73 ppg on the road, while allowing more than 80. Expect them to be unable to keep up with a motivated Sooner team which averages 92.7 ppg here at home. Revenge-minded Sooners pull away for a double-digit win.
|03-01-18||Valparaiso v. Missouri State -1||Top||79-83||Win||100||29 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on MISSOURI STATE (10* MVC GAME OF YEAR). Teams from this "play in game" typically don't advance too far. However, the Bears aren't the typical "play in" team. Led by Alize Johnson (#1 in rebounding in the MVC, #5 in scoring) this team was, in fact, the preseason favorite in this conference. This is a team which defeated (25-5) Loyola, which ran away with the conference regular season title. The Bears beat the Crusaders by seven points, as an 8-point favorite, when the teams met in the regular season. While I still feel that they're the superior team, due to their poor finish, we're getting much better line value this time. With a chance at a "fresh start," expect the cream to rise to the top, Johnson and co. elevating their game and advancing to the next round.
|02-28-18||Fordham v. George Washington -9||Top||56-72||Win||100||8 h 25 m||Show|
I'm playing on GEORGE WASHINGTON (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). The Colonials lost their last road game, a 62-53 setback at St. Louis. However, since an ugly loss to Davidson to begin the month, they've turned the corner here at home. Last game here, they beat Richmond by 26 points. Their previous game here saw them beat VCU by 24. Before that? An 11-point win over La Salle. Stepping down in class to face a Fordham team which has struggled all season, the Colonials have an opportunity to post another big win in their regular season home finale. I expect them to make the most of that opportunity. While the Rams may go all out to try and win Saturday's home finale, its been tough sledding on the road. Fordham averages less than 60 points per game away from home and its last four road losses have all come by double-digits. More of the same here.
|02-27-18||Miami-OH v. Kent State -2||Top||83-90||Win||100||24 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on KENT STATE (10* MISMATCH). I believe that the Golden Flashes, who have dominated the RedHawks here over recent years, are going to want this one a little more than their guests. While Kent State will be playing its regular season home finale, Miami Ohio plays its home finale in its next game. The RedHawks' home finale will come against instate rival Ohio, which recently upset Miami Ohio. Speaking of "revenge games," the Golden Flashes will be looking to avenge an earlier loss at Miami. The RedHawks are 1-3 SU/ATS the past four times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. The Golden Flashes are 2-0-1 ATS (3-0 SU) the past three times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|02-26-18||Texas Tech v. West Virginia -5.5||Top||74-84||Win||100||26 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on WEST VIRGINIA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Red Raiders have the higher ranking but I believe that the Mountaineers are favored for good reason. You may recall that WVU was ranked as high as #2 in the country this season. The Mountaineers achieved that ranking by winning 15 straight. The team that beat them? These same Red Raiders. Needless to say, WVU hasn't forgotten that 1-point loss. That led to a stretch where they lost five of six. The team is playing better now though, having won two in a row and five or seven. In addition to wanting to avenge the earlier loss and continue their current winning streak, the Mountaineers are playing their final home game of the regular season. The Mountaineers are going to want to close out their home season in style. Catching the Raiders off three straight losses, I expect them to do exactly that.
|02-25-18||The Citadel v. Western Carolina -3.5||Top||75-92||Win||100||7 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on WESTERN CAROLINA (10* PERS FAV). The Catamounts overcame a 16-point deficit to win 81-79 at Charleston back on 12/30. That result will likely have some backing the revenge-minded Bulldogs. However, the Bulldogs are only 7-17 SU the past 24 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss and I believe this game will have significantly more meaning to the Catamounts. For starters, its their regular season home finale and the Catamounts will be honoring their six senior players. They'd like to send them out on a high note. Also, WCU badly wants to snap its losing streak, before entering the (conference) tournament. Perhaps most importantly, while the Bulldogs are already locked into a first round matchup, the Catamounts are trying to secure a top-6 seed. That's important as it would allow the Catamounts to avoid a first round game in the tournament. Note that WCU has won 12 of the last 14 meetings including four of the last five in Cullowhee. Also note that the Catamounts have thrived in the favorite role, going 13-4 ATS (15-2 SU) the past 17 times that they were laying points. Expect a highly motivated effort, as they improve on those stats this afternoon.
|02-24-18||Auburn v. Florida -2||Top||66-72||Win||100||12 h 12 m||Show|
I'm playing on FLORIDA (10* GAME OF WEEK). If Ole Miss beats Tennessee this afternoon (Vols are -4) then Auburn will already have clinched at least a share of the SEC regular season title. Regardless of what happens in that earlier matchup, I expect the Gators to be the team which comes ready to play. The Gators have dropped three in a row, for just the second time this season. With a road game on deck, they know they have to "stop the bleeding" here. Note that the Gators beat a strong Cincy team, the only previous time that they'd lost three in a row this season. Including that 66-60 victory, they're an impressive and profitable 34-14 ATS over the years, after failing to cover the spread in their previous three games. That includes a 5-2 SU/ATS mark in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. While Auburn can score with the best of them, the Gators have arguably the superior defense. Expect them to rise to the occasion and come away with an important victory.
|02-21-18||Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh +9||Top||63-57||Win||100||26 h 57 m||Show|
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH (10* BEST BET). If the Panthers want a chance of snapping their skid and earning a conference victory, this is their chance to get it. After tonight, their final two games come against Virginia and at Notre Dame. Needless to say, this represents a far more winnable game. I expect a highly motivated effort from the Panthers as they go all out to get the win. The Demon Deacons are 10-17, 3-9 away from home. The Deacons haven't won a road game in 2018. Their last road win came way back in mid-December and that was by only four points, at Coastal Carolina. With an O/U line in the mid 140s, note that Wake Forest is 2-5 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 140s while Pittsburgh is 6-4 ATS when doing so. Last February's game (at WF) was decided by only four points. The previous February's game here at Pitt. was decided by only five. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing all the points I can get.
|02-20-18||Mississippi State v. Texas A&M -6.5||Top||93-81||Loss||-106||23 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M (10* GAME OF THE YEAR). The Bulldogs come in on an impressive roll at the betting window. Last time out, they knocked off instate rival Ole Miss by 17 points. That marked their seventh straight ATS victory. I expect that streak to get snapped on Tuesday. Note that this is the second time this season that the Bulldogs were coming off a game against Ole Miss. After their first game against the Rebels, the Bulldogs followed it up with a 17-point loss in their next game. That was their most lopsided defeat of the season. Recent ATS streak notwithstanding, the Bulldogs are still just 1-6 SU on the road, in 2018. They've also struggled the past 2+ seasons, as road favorites in this range. The Aggies are off back-to-back losses. However, both of those came on the road. In their most recent home game, they beat Kentucky by double-digits. Their previous home game, before that, was a 23-point win over South Carolina. In fact, they've won five straight at home and the last four of those victories all came by double-digits. The Aggies have thrived as home favorites in this range. While they lost at Miss. State last season, the Aggies had beaten the Bulldogs four straight times before that, including all three here at home. Expect homecourt to be the difference once again.
|02-19-18||Cleveland State v. Wright State -13.5||Top||63-72||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on WRIGHT STATE (3* VIOLATOR). These teams are at opposite ends of the Horizon Conference. The Raiders have enjoyed an excellent season and sit on top of the standings. They're 20-8 overall, 13-2 when listed as the home team. The Vikings, on the other hand, check in with a 8-21 record, a dismal 1-14 mark when listed as the road team. They figure to have trouble scoring this evening. While the Raiders allow a mere 59 points per game at home, the Vikings score just 63 ppg on the road. Normally, for a mismatch like this, the Vikings might hope the home team would overlook them. However, thats not happening here. Not only is this the Raiders' final home game of the reg. season, but they also lost at Cleveland State earlier this month, when listed as 9-point favorites. Arguably the low point of their season, the Raiders haven't forgotten. They're 10-6 ATS (11-5 SU) the past 16 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss and I expect them to improve on those stats in "blowout fashion" here.
|02-18-18||Stanford v. California +6||Top||77-73||Win||100||11 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAL (10* SHOCKER). While the Bears have admittedly had a tough season, I don't believe that Stanford deserves to be laying this many points on the road. The Bears beat Oregon State in their last game here. Nobody has beaten them by more than single-digits here since Arizona did so a month ago. The Cardinal are playing their third straight road game. They lost each of the first two, failing to cover in either. They're 0-4 on the road over the past month. With an O/U line in the low 140s, note that Stanford is 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS its last eight, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 140 to 144.5 range. The Bears, who already won by three at Stanford, have beaten the Cardinal by double-digits each of the past two meetings here at Cal. Expect them to give their guests all they can handle once again.
|02-17-18||Montana v. Idaho +1||Top||77-79||Win||102||15 h 25 m||Show|
I'm playing on IDAHO (10* FALSE FAVORITE OF THE MONTH). This is a big game in the Big Sky Conference. I like the Vandals, who rallied for a 10-point win last time and who have now won five straight, to come out on top. There was no clear cut favorite in the Big Sky entering this season. Both these teams knew they'd be in the mix. Sure enough, they're #1 and #2. While Montana is already 20-6, note that ALL six of those losses came away from home. Last time out, the Grizzlies lost at Eastern Washington. That defeat snapped a 13-game winning streak and an undefeated record in conference play. While many will expect the Grizzlies to immediately bounce back, thats often easier said than done. Note that the Grizzlies were only 4-7 ATS off a conference loss, the past couple of seasons. Montana averages 73 ppg on the road while allowing 69.6. Idaho, on the other hand, averages 78.2 ppg at home, while allowing 66.8. Expect homecourt to ultimately prove the difference, the surging Vandals making it six straight.
|02-16-18||Rhode Island v. St Bonaventure +1||Top||74-77||Win||100||24 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Rams won big when these teams met at Rhode Island. Not surprising, as they've been perfect on their home floor this season. They've been tough to beat away from home, too. But not unbeatable. In addition to losing a neutral site game at Virginia, the Rams have lost at Nevada and Alabama. The Bonnies, who have won seven straight overall, have also been very tough to beat on their home floor. Their only loss here came in the first game of the season, way back in early November. Since then, they've been perfect here. Expect them to get some payback this evening.
|02-15-18||Tulsa v. Connecticut -3.5||Top||73-71||Loss||-105||9 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on UCONN (10* VIOLATOR). Both teams are much stronger at home. While Tulsa held serve on its home floor, a narrow 90-88 (2 OT) victory, I expect the revenge-minded Huskies to get some payback this evening. The Huskies are a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they were listed as favorites. Tonight's line is low enough that a SU victory should also result in an ATS win. Tulsa has trouble scoring on the road and the Huskies are stingy (65.7 ppg, 39.5% fg) here at home. UCONN bounces back.
|02-14-18||Wyoming v. San Diego State -7.5||Top||77-87||Win||100||13 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on SDSU (10* PERS FAV). These teams are both much better on their home floor. The Cowboys won and covered at Wyoming in late December. Playing on their home floor, I expect the Aztecs to return the favor. I won with the Aztecs in their last home game, a 31-point destruction of Air Force. The Aztecs had entered that game off a blowout loss. They've since lost back-to-back road games, most recently getting blown out at Nevada. Once again, I expect homecourt and the home fans to provide the boost they need to bounce back. The Aztecs are 7-2 SU/ATS in home lined games. They outscore teams by an 81.1 to 60.5 margin here at home. On the other hand, Wyoming gets outscored by a 78.2 to 75.2 margin on the road. The Aztecs are 4-1 SU (3-1 ATS in lined games) after allowing 80 or more points. They beat the Cowboys by nine the last meeting here and I expect an even bigger margin here.
|02-13-18||Virginia v. Miami-FL +6||Top||59-50||Loss||-105||11 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). The Cavs are obviously having an excellent season. However, I believe that the Canes are catching them at the right time. After losing against V-Tech last time out, many will be banking on Virginia to bounce right back. Thats going to be easier said than done though, as this has become a very difficult venue to play at. The Canes have lost only one game here all season. That was against Duke, more than a month ago. Since then, they've beaten every team that has visited here. The Canes are off a loss at Boston College, a defeat which damaged their tournament resume. A win here and that loss will be forgiven/forgotten. Expect them to bounce back with their best effort.
|02-12-18||East Tennessee State v. NC-Greensboro -1.5||Top||56-74||Win||100||13 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on UNC-GREENSBORO (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Southern Conference is strong this season and these two teams are leading the way. Each has been excellent at the betting window. The Buccaneers are on top and won when the teams met at ETSU. However, lets not forget that this Buccaneers team lost a lot from last season. The Spartans came up just short against ETSU in last season's conference tourney and they haven't forgotten. They're 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in home lined games this season. After allowing a mere 48 points last time out, note that the Spartans are also 8-1 SU (6-1 ATS) the past nine times that they'd allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game. Off three straight double-digit wins, their confidence is at an all-time high. With an O/U line in the low-mid 130s, as of this writing, note that the Spartans are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they played a home game with an O/U line ranging from 130 to 134.5. Can you say: "Payback time?"