|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson OVER 59||Top||16-44||Win||100||150 h 9 m||Show|
I'm playing on Clemson/Alabama OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. In 2017, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' Last season, I switched things up, winning with both Alabama and the 'under.' (Alabama won 24-6.) This year, I'm coming right back with the OVER. Prior to last season's 30-point affair, the games the two previous years had produced 85 and 66 combined points, respectively. Yet, despite both teams coming off an 'under' last week and despite last season's 'defensive battle,' this is the highest O/U line of any of the four meetings. There's a good reason for that. While the defenses remain stout, these offenses are both extremely capable of putting up big numbers. The Tigers average 44.3 ppg. The Tide average 47.7. Speaking of the O/U line being the highest of any of the Clemson games; the Tide have seen the OVER go a perfect 7-0 this season, when playing a game where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. Expect some offensive fireworks.
|01-01-19||Texas v. Georgia UNDER 59||Top||28-21||Win||100||24 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on Texas/Georgia UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Its true that Georgia was involved in a few high-scoring games to close out the season. However, the opposite was true of Texas. The Longhorns enter this game off three consecutive games which stayed below the total. In fact, all three stayed below the number by double-digits. Even with one of those opponents being Oklahoma, those three games averaged 47 combined points. The UNDER is now 25-13 in all Texas games the past few seasons, 10-4 when the Longhorns were listed as underdogs. Obviously, the Bulldogs are an elite team with a talented offense and QB. They're still primarily a running based attack though, which leads to them running fewer plays per game than the majority of the opponents that Texas is used to facing. (Georgia ranks 101st nationally with 67.9 plays per game.) On the other side, the Longhorns know that they need to get their own ground game going to help churn up the clock and keep the Bulldogs on the sideline. Sure, Georgia will be without star defensive back Deandre Baker. However, this is still the best secondary that Texas will have gone up against. The last two Sugar Bowls produced an average of just 42 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
|12-31-18||Missouri v. Oklahoma State UNDER 75||Top||33-38||Win||100||213 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on Missouri and Oklahoma State UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). The mere mention of these teams has many immediately thinking shootout. I'm not one of them. Sure, we'll see some points but ultimately I believe that the O/U number will prove to be too high. The Missouri defense comes in full of confidence. The Tigers allowed ZERO points in their last game, a 38-0 win. They allowed 28 or fewer points in their final five games, 17 or less in four of those. Overall, they allowed an average of less than 16 ppg in those five. The Cowboys returned seven starters on the defensive side of the ball and were projected to have their best defense since 2013. Of course, when playing against the likes of Oklahoma and WVU, you're going to give up some points. The Cowboys' last game came against TCU; that one produced 'only' 55 combined points. Note that the Cowboys offense, which returned five starters from last year's team, will be without Justice Hill, a very key loss. Mike Gundy tends to get the most from his defense in the bowls. The Cowboys' last five bowl games have produced 72, 52, 68, 46 and 51 combined points. In the last two of those, the Cowboy defense allowed just eight and 21 points. With the UNDER at 7-1 the last eight times that the Cowboys were listed as neutral field underdogs, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|12-22-18||Houston v. Army OVER 59||14-70||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on Houston/Army OVER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). With Houston's starting QB out for this game, the O/U line dropped considerably. I expect both teams to score plenty of points and feel that the lower O/U line is providing excellent value. To say that these offenses are opposite of each other would be accurate. Army leads the nation in time of possession. Houston is last in the country in that category. That hasn't prevented the Cougars from averaging 46.4 ppg though, fourth best in the country. The Cougars also rank high in numerous other offensive categories. QB Clayton Tune got a game under his belt, throwing for three TDs and has had plenty of time to prepare. On the other side, Army will put up a big number against a porous Houston defense, one which will be missing All-American defensive tackle Ed Oliver, which gave up 36 or more points in five of its final six games, more than 50 in two of its last three. Expect some fireworks.
|12-20-18||Marshall v. South Florida UNDER 51.5||Top||38-20||Loss||-110||13 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on Marshall/USF UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Marshall hasn't scored more than 30 points since managing 31 back in October. The Herd can play quality defense though, as they held three of their last six opponents to fewer than 14 points. Off a blowout loss against V-Tech in a makeup game, I expect the Herd to show us that quality defense tonight. Note that the UNDER is 6-2 the last eight times that they had allowed 37 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds the UNDER at 16-7 when the Herd were off a road loss of 21 or more points. 24-11 when off a loss of 17 or more overall. In other words, off the type of effort they gave vs. V-Tech, the Herd historically bounce back with a much better defensive effort. Facing a USF team which managed only 10 points last time and which has now scored 23 or less in four straight, 17 or less in three of those, will help. The UNDER is 15-4 over the years, when the Bulls find themselves having lost five, or six, of their previous seven. With the UNDER also at 8-2 the last 10 times that the Bulls were off three or more consec. conference losses, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair.
|12-18-18||Northern Illinois v. UAB OVER 42.5||13-37||Win||100||33 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on UAB/NIU to finish OVER the total (8* BEST BET). While I respect both defenses, I believe this number will prove to be too low. As NIU fans know, this bowl has historically been high-scoring. The Huskies also represented the MAC in 2014, the inaugural game of the Boca Raton Bowl. That year, they combined with Marshall, the CUSA champ that year, for 85 points. The 2015 game appeared destined to be low-scoring, as there were only 15 points at halftime. However, things opened up in the second half and the final combined score was 49. In 2016, a whopping 82 points were scored. Last season, 53 points were scored, FAU scoring 50 of those themselves. In other words, in the history of this bowl, they've never scored fewer than 49 points. Of course, thats all 'ancient history.' However, these are also more than capable of exceeding tonight's low number. NIU's last game produced 59 points and that was on the heels of a 49-point game. UAB's last game produced 52 combined points; four of the Blazers last five games produced a minimum of 49 combined points. While UAB had trouble finishing above the higher numbers, the OVER is when the Blazers played a game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. Expect those stats to improve, tonight's final combined score proving higher than many will be expecting.
|12-08-18||Navy v. Army OVER 39.5||10-17||Loss||-110||76 h 42 m||Show|
I'm playing on Army/Navy OVER the total (8* BEST BET). These teams have had a recent history of low-scoring games, a longstanding run of 'unders.' I say that the streak comes to an end this year though. None of the recent games between these teams have had an O/U line this low. In fact, I looked all the way back to 1995 and none of them were this low. Series history notwithstanding, I feel that its too low. Navy's games have finished with 100, 43, 73, 61, 42, 41, 85, 66, 42, 59, 66 and 57 combined points. Notice that ALL TWELVE GAMES produced a minimum of 41 points. As for Army, nine of its 10 games produced at least 42 combined points. One difference between this year's game and other recent games is that Army is now the favorite, instead of Navy. The OVER is 14-6 the last 20 times that the Knights were laying points. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon
|12-01-18||Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 61.5||Top||24-45||Win||100||12 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on NW/OSU OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). With all due respect to the NW defense, this line is too low. The Buckeyes scored 62 points against a "stingy" Michigan team last time out. Their previous game, they dropped 52 on Maryland. Both games produced more than 100 combined points. Expect the OVER to improve to 8-4 the last 12 times that OSU was favored in the -10.5 to -21 range.
|11-24-18||Notre Dame v. USC OVER 54||Top||24-17||Loss||-109||106 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on ND/USC OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). As you know, this is a huge game.Notre Dame, facing its biggest rival, finishes undefeated with a victory. However, as Brian Kelley noted: "Playing there is never easy..." I feel that the O/U line is going to prove to be too low. The Trojans have scored a minimum of 27 points in five of their last six games; they're average 32.4 ppg at home. Notre Dame, meanwhile, averages a whopping 44 ppg and an impressive 513 ypg, when playing on the road. Last year's game produced 63 points. The year before, the last time that ND played here, the teams combined for 72. Expect the OVER to improve to 8-2 the last 10 times the the Irish were laying points on the road.
|11-17-18||Nevada v. San Jose State UNDER 60||Top||21-12||Win||100||78 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on Nevada/SJ State UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). The last time that Nevada played here, the O/U line was 56 but the teams combined for only 24 points, a 14-10 win for the Spartans. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. True, the Spartans got lit up for 62 points last week. However, that was at Utah State against an extremely explosive Aggie offense. Off that effort, they'll absolutely be looking to improve defensively this week. Note that the only previous time that SJSU allowed more than 50 points this season, it responded by holiding SDSU to just 16 points the next time out, a 16-13 loss in a game where the O/U line was 62. Nevada allowed just 10 points last time out and allowed only 22 its last road game, a win at Hawaii. Including that result, a game where I won with the 'under,' the Wolfpack have seen the UNDER go 11-5 their last 16 on the road. That includes a 7-3 UNDER mark in road games where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. Expect those stats to improve Saturday.
|11-10-18||San Jose State v. Utah State UNDER 63||Top||24-62||Loss||-109||80 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on Utah State / SJ State to finish UNDER the total (10* MWC TOTAL OF THE YEAR. As you likely know, the Utah State offense has been extremely potent all season long. Thats led to higher and higher O/U lines. I feel that this one will prove to be too high. Last week, the Aggies saw QB Jordan Love leave with a hit to the head. His status is currently up in the air. I'm going to assume that he'll play. However, with the Aggies favored by greater than four TD's, there's little reason to take any chances. Either way, the Aggies will score points, as per usual. Just not as many as most will be expecting. San Jose State is in the second year of a new defense and is slowly showing signs of improvement. The last two times that they were large underdogs (Wyoming and SDSU) they allowed only 24 and 16 points, despite being +17.5 and +25.5 point underdogs. In their lone game where they were underdogs of a similar size to what they are here (+30.5 underdogs against WSU) they allowed only 31 points, losing 31-0. The only time that they were bigger underdogs than that was at Oregon and that game stayed below the number by double-digits, too. The Spartans, who have scored less than 14 points in three of their last four, figure to have real trouble scoring; Utah State held Hawaii to 43 rushing yards on 20 carries. The UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in SJ State road games. I expect those stats to improve Sat. afternoon.
|11-06-18||Kent State v. Buffalo OVER 41||14-48||Win||100||26 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on Buffalo/KSU OVER the total (8* SUPER TOTAL). This is a very low number and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Kent State games are averaging 58.5 points this season. The Flashes' last two games saw 63 and 47 points scored. Buffalo games are averaging 58.3 combined ppg, the last one producing a whopping 93. The last meeting here had an O/U line of 42 and finished with 64 combined points. Look for this one to also be higher-scoring than many will be expecting.
|11-03-18||San Diego State v. New Mexico UNDER 48.5||Top||31-23||Loss||-118||61 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on SDSU / New Mexico UNDER the total. The Lobos got lit up last week. That was on the road against a very high-scoring Utah State team though. This week, determined to improve defensively, they'll face an entirely different type of team; they Aztecs have been winning with defense all season. Through eight games, San Diego State is averaging only 21.1 points. On the road, that number dips to 17.7. The Aztec defense permits only 19.6 ppg. The Aztecs should be able to limit the Lobos, who are averaging just 14.7 ppg and 295 ypg their last three games. Last season's game was 14-0 at halftime. The second half saw some more points but the final was still only 35-10. The Aztecs have been money for 'under' bettors on the road over the years (68-39 Under mark L107) and they've seen two of three road games fall below the number this season. More of the same Saturday night.
|11-02-18||Colorado v. Arizona OVER 59.5||34-42||Win||100||101 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on Colorado/Arizona to finish OVER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). While these teams have both been profitable for 'under' bettors, it hasn't been due to an ability to move the ball or to score points. The Buffaloes average 32 ppg and 439.6 ypg. The Wildcats average a nearly identical number of yards (441.7 ypg) while averaging 29.6 ppg. At home, that number climbs to 34.6 ppg. Colorado scored 34 last week, while allowing 41. That was the fourth straight game that the Buffaloes allowed more than 20 points. Arizona has scored 30 and 44 its last two games. Last season, these teams combined for 87 points. The season before that they combined for 73. Both games finished above the total by double-digits.
|10-31-18||Ball State v. Toledo UNDER 66||Top||13-45||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on Toledo/Ball State to finish UNDER the total (10* O/U VIOLATOR). Its true that I won with the 'over' a couple of Toledo games this season, including last week at WMU. However, that was against a Bronco team which could trade punches with them. Tonight, the Rockets face a Cardinal team which averages only 16 ppg pn the road. Not surprisingly, three of Ball State's four road games have fallen below the total. With their opponent unable to score many points, the Rockets won't need to score as many themselves. Their last home game (vs. Buffalo two weeks ago) stayed below the number by double-digits and so did their last game here vs. Ball State. The Rockets were laying -20 for that one, a game with an O/U line of 68. The final score was 37-19. I'm expecting a similar result here.
|10-27-18||Texas A&M v. Mississippi State OVER 43.5||Top||13-28||Loss||-109||33 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on Texas A&M / Mississippi State OVER the total (10* SEC TOTAL OF YEAR). Both teams have seen their recent games finish below the total. Those recent results have worked in our favor by providing us with an extremely low O/U line to work with, among the lowest on the Saturday board. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. While you wouldn't know it by the O/U line, the Aggies can move the ball and score points. They average 32.3 ppg and 486.7 ypg. They've faced the likes of Kentucky (12.9 ppg allowed) Clemson (13.4 ppg allowed) and Alabama (15.9 ppg allowed) yet have still scored a minimum of 20 points in every game. While the Bulldog offense has struggled of late, take a look at their last four opponents, LSU, Kentucky, Auburn and Florida. All four of those teams rank in top 15 in the country in terms of points allowed. All of them allow fewer than 17 ppg. While still respectable, the Aggie defense isn't as good as the Bulldogs' previous four opponents. In two road games, A&M is allowing an average of 34 ppg. Prior to facing those four Top 15 defenses, the Bulldogs had scored 63, 31, and 56 points. They're still averaging 37 ppg and 461 ypg through four home games. Last season's game had an O/U line of 54. The previous season, the O/U line was 60.5. Those games finished with 49 and 63 points, respectively. The Aggies have only been underdogs twice this season and both games finished above the total. More of the same Saturday.
|10-27-18||Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 50.5||17-31||Win||100||114 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on Wisconsin/NW to finish UNDER the total (8* BREAKFAST CLUB TOTAL). The Badgers' last visit here resulted in a 21-7 victory, a game which fell below the total by double-digits. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. The Wildcats were 20 point favorites last week yet managed a mere 18 points. It was the third time in their last six games that they'd scored 18 or less. The Cats rank 12th in the Big Ten in scoring, last in yards per carry and 11th in passing efficiency. Its no secret that the Badgers are going to run the ball. While stopping them won't be easy, the Cats have had success in slowing down their running attack in recent seasons. Including the game here in 2016, the UNDER is 13-4 in NW home games the past 2+ seasons. The UNDER is also 5-1 the last six times that the Badgers were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon.
|10-25-18||Toledo v. Western Michigan OVER 65||Top||51-24||Win||100||73 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing Toledo/Western Michigan OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Some of you may recall that I won with the 'over' when the Rockets faced Fresno a few weeks ago. At the time, among other things, I mentioned that Toledo was the first team in NCAA history to bring back three receivers which had caught at least 10 TD passes, in a season, at some point in their career. That game ended up flying over the number, producing 76 combined points. The Rockets' next game (Bowling Green) did too, finishing with 78. Since then, however, they've seen two straight games fall below the number. Those results, combined with the fact that the Broncos are off an 'under' of their own, have kept this number lower than it easily could have been. Realistically, the number could have easily opened in the 70s, in my opinion. The Rockets defense is poor and when matched up against a capable opponent, they get lit up. They've been underdogs twice this season. Both times they gave up 49 points, while also scoring 24 or more. Both finished above the total by double-digits. In three home games, the Broncos are averaging 45.7 ppg and 511 ypg. They'll be licking their chops at the prospects of facing this defense. Averaging more than 39 ppg themselves, however, the Rockets have the ability to trade punches. Toledo's last visit here had an O/U line of 72 and finished with 90 points, a 55-35 final. Expect another shootout.
|10-21-18||Nevada v. Hawaii UNDER 69||Top||40-22||Win||100||87 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing Nevada/Hawaii UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). We're working with a very high O/U number here and I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Nevada's last three games produced 58, 24 and 53 combined points. Allowing 31 last week wasn't as bad as it sounds, considering the opponent was Boise State and the Broncos were averaging more than 37 ppg coming in. Hawaii's last home game produced just 30 points. The Warriors' previous home game finished with 63. The last five meetings between these teams have ALL finished below the total, none of those games having a number nearly as high as this one. Those games finished with 56, 55, 50, 44 and 40 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|10-19-18||Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 62||28-56||Loss||-110||77 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on Colorado State / Boise State to finish UNDER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). Last season's game between these teams was extremely high-scoring. That was at Colorado State, however, where the Rams were able to score. That figures to be far more difficult on the road, this season. Colorado State has been held to 20 or fewer points in four of seven games. Boise State has allowed 20 or less in four of six. The UNDER is 4-0 when the Rams were underdogs. The 2016 meeting here at Boise stayed below the total with 51 points, only 10 by halfitme. Including that result, the UNDER is 8-2 in Boise's October games, the past 2+ seasons. Look for more of the same Friday.
|10-13-18||Wisconsin v. Michigan UNDER 48||Top||13-38||Loss||-109||106 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on Wisconsin/Michigan UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). Both teams have seen three of their past four finish above the total. Those results have helped in providing us with a relatively generous O/U line, one which I feel will prove to be too high. A look at last season's meeting, at Wisconsin, reveals that the O/U line was just 41. The most recent meeting here at Michigan was the previous season, a game which had an O/U line of 44. You may recall that each of the games finished well below the number, the home team dominating defensively in both. Last season's game was tied 7-7 at halftime and finished with a final score of 24-10. The 2016 game here at Michigan had a score of 7-0 at the break and finished at 14-7. The Badgers managed a mere eight first downs in that game, on only 159 total yards of total offense. Wisconsin did a great job of keeping Michigan to 14 too, considering that the Wolverines entered that game averaging 52 ppg. (The Wolverines would score 78 the next game, too.) While all that may be ancient history, this season's Michigan defense is every bit as talented as the 2016 one, arguably more so. Consider that the 2016 Michigan D returned six starters while this season's defense returned nine and 14 of its top 16 tacklers. A big nationally televised game gives this Michigan defense a chance to show the nation how good it really is. The Badgers have played a few pretty soft defenses and still haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard. They've seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they were listed as underdogs and I expect points to be at a premium, once again.
|10-13-18||Nebraska v. Northwestern OVER 58.5||31-34||Win||100||91 h 41 m||Show|
I'm playing on Nebraska/Northwestern OVER the total (8* BC TOTAL). The Huskers are banged up on defense, one of the reasons they're allowing a whopping 39.2 ppg and 447 ypg. In two road games, the Huskers are allowing 48.5 ppg and 512 ypg. Not surprisingly, both games finished above the number. They've now allowed 56, 41 and 42 the past three games. The Nebraska offense has been better than the defense; last time out, the Huskers had more than 500 total yards at Wisconsin, though managing just 24 points. The previous game they scored 28 against Purdue. They've been underdogs for each of their last three games, all of which finished above the total. In fact, the OVER is 13-2 the past 15 times that Nebraska was an underdog. With the OVER also 8-2 the last 10 times that the Huskers were off a conference loss, expect some fireworks on Saturday afternoon.
|10-12-18||Arizona v. Utah OVER 51||10-42||Win||100||13 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing on Arizona/Utah to finish OVER the total (8* SUPER TOTAL). The Wildcats have been kind to 'under' bettors thus far and those early results have helped to provide us with a particularly low O/U number, the lowest Arizona has seen yet. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Wildcats are averaging a whopping 562.5 yards of offense on the road, thus far. So, its not like they haven't been moving the ball. The Utes scored 40, at Stanford, last time out. At home, they're averaging 434.5 yards of offense. The Utah defense has allowed 21 or more points in three straight. Last season's meeting produced 54 points and the previous season's produced 59. Expect this one to finish above the low number.
|10-11-18||Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 62||17-14||Win||100||28 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on Texas Tech / TCU to finish UNDER the total (8* BEST BET). The Red Raiders have long been an offensive juggernaut while the Horned Frogs are typically known more for their defense. Playing at home, I expect the Frogs to more effectively dictate the tempo. As per usual, TCU is very stingy. The Frogs held Iowa to 14 points last time out, marking the third time through their first five games that they've allowed 14 or less. Indeed, the Raiders have been involved in some shootouts already. So, it may sound funny to suggest that they have an improved defense this season. That said, I believe that to, in fact, be the case. The Raiders' high-scoring games have come against the likes of WVU, OSU, Houston and Ole Miss. All four of those teams are in the top 22 in the country in scoring, ranking 3, 13, 16 and 22nd. Each scores considerably more than TCU. While they all score more, none of those teams are nearly as good defensively as TCU. In other words, the Raiders' early high-scoring results can partly be taken with a grain of salt. Keep in mind that this Tech team returned 10 defensive starters and were expected to have their best defensive unit in years. Last season's meeting stayed WELL below the total, as did the 2016 meeting; each game stayed below the number by 3+ TDs. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 11-1 the last 12 times that TCU was off a conference win.
|10-06-18||Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 60.5||Top||21-3||Win||100||97 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on Fresno State / Nevada UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Its true that I won with the 'over' in last week's Fresno/Toledo game. However, Nevada is a different style of opponent and that high-scoring result has helped in providing us with a generously high O/U line. The Bulldogs, who have held all four opponents to 27 or fewer points are allowing an average of only 17.5 ppg and 288.5 ppg through their first two road games. Those were opponents from the Pac 12 and Big 10, too. Note that Fresno State has seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 the past six times that it was off back-to-back SU victories. Nevada is off its best defensive performance of the season, holding Air Force to just 250 total yards. Nevada QB Ganji is banged-up (leg) and questionable. Assuming he goes, note that he was intercepted three times by Fresno last season. The Bulldogs' last visit here was in Oct. of 2016. The O/U line was 54 and the teams combined for 49. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|09-29-18||Toledo v. Fresno State OVER 59.5||Top||27-49||Win||100||98 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on Toledo/Fresno State OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). These teams combined for 69 points the last time that they met and I won't be surprised if they exceed that on Saturday night. These teams are both likely to put up a big number. Toledo was the first team in NCAA history to bring back three receivers which had caught at least 10 TD passes, in a season, at some point in their career. The Rockets scored 66 in their opener and 63 last week against Nevada. Only Miami kept them below 60 (49-24) and that game still produced 73 combined points. Overall, Toledo games are averaging 83 points. Fresno, meanwhile, also has an excellent group of wide receivers, arguably the best in the Mountain West. The Bulldogs scored 79 points in their lone home game. In games which had an O/U number, the Bulldogs have seen the OVER go 40-20 in September over the years. Expect those stats to improve here.
|09-27-18||North Carolina v. Miami-FL UNDER 55.5||10-47||Loss||-105||32 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on Miami/UNC to finish UNDER the total (8* O/U MAIN EVENT). Recent games between these two teams have been low-scoring in nature. I expect that to be the case again Thursday. Last season's game produced 43 points, a 24-19 road victory for Miami. The previous season, the teams combined for only 33 points, a 20-13 road upset by the Tar Heels. This season, the Tar Heels brought back eight defensive starters, compared to just five on the offensive side. They managed only 17 and 19 points in their previous two road games and they'll be facing an even better defense here. The "under" has been money for both teams over the years when playing Thursday night games. The UNDER is also 11-3 the last 14 times that the Canes played a home game with an O/U line in the 52.5 to 56 range. Expect UNC to have trouble moving the ball and finding the end zone, the final combined score again finishing below the number.
|09-22-18||Stanford v. Oregon OVER 55.5||Top||38-31||Win||100||32 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing Stanford/Oregon OVER the total. The Ducks had trouble scoring at Stanford in last season's meeting. That game had 35 points at halftime but finished with only 56. However, in the most recent meeting here at Oregon, both teams were able to put up points. In fact, that game had an O/U line in the high 50s but finished with 79 combined points. I expect both teams to put up a fairly big number again Saturday evening. The Ducks have scored 58, 62 and 35 points, an average of 51.7 ppg (503 ypg). The Cardinal, meanwhile, have scored 30 or more in two of their three games. Including the 79-point affair here in 2016, the OVER is 11-5 the Ducks' last 16 home games. Expect those stats to improve Saturday night.
|09-13-18||Boston College v. Wake Forest UNDER 51||41-34||Loss||-107||56 h 23 m||Show|
I'm playing on BC/WF UNDER the total (8* BEST BET). The Eagles are off back-to-back high-scoring games to start the season. Wake Forest is the best defense that they will have seen though and I expect a much lower-scoring contest. Last year's game produced 44 combined points. The previous season, in the most recent meeting here at Wake Forest, the teams combined for only 31 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 6-1 the last seven times that the Deacons were a host in the series. Also, including the 17-14 result the last meeting here, the Eagles have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 65-37 their last 100+ on the road. The UNDER is also 4-0 the last couple of seasons, when the Eagles were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. Expect more of the same Thursday.
|09-08-18||Air Force v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 69||Top||27-33||Win||100||72 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on Air Force / FAU UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). I feel that this O/U number, which has risen from its opener, will prove to be too higher. While the opponent was obviously pretty weak, the Falcons are off a shutout win in their opener. They held Stony Brook to a mere 30 yards rushing and only 45 yards passing. The Seawolves would finish with just four first downs. Needless to say, it was among the best defensive performances ever by the Falcons and should give them plenty of confidence entering Saturday's game. FAU didn't fare so well defensively, getting lit up by Oklahoma. However, that effort notwithstanding, this IS a very experienced defense and we can expect a MUCH better performance this week. The UNDER is 8-6 in FAU home games the past couple of seasons. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon.
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55.5||Top||24-3||Win||100||81 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing on V-Tech/FSU UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Its true that both these teams are hoping and expecting to have improved offenses this season. However, that improvement isn't likely to be immediate and there's always plenty of athleticism and talent on the defensive side from both these teams. The Noles allowed just 15 ppg (280 ypg) their final three last season and 20.3 ppg at home on the season. The Hokies, meanwhile, allowed a mere 14.8 ppg on the season, 14.7 their final three. The UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons, when the Hokies were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, six of their 10 road games finishing below the total. As for the Noles, the UNDER is 10-5-1 their last 16 conference games. Overall, VT games averaged 43 points last season while FSU games averaged 49. All things considered, this number, which has climbed from its opener, is generously high.
|09-01-18||Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 46.5||Top||17-24||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on Michigan/ND UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). While this should be an entertaining game, I don't expect there to be a whole lot of scoring. The Wolverines are loaded on defense and should be among the best in the nation on that side of the ball. They allowed 18.8 ppg and 281 ypg last year and this year's unit is far more experienced, bringing back 14 of their top 16 tacklers. Likewise, this should be the best Notre Dame defense that we've seen in several years, the Irish bringing back nine defensive starters. The Irish have seen the UNDER go 4-2 the past couple of seasons when the line ranged from -3 to +3. Look for points to be at a premium.
|08-31-18||Utah State v. Michigan State OVER 50.5||Top||31-38||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on Utah State / Michigan State OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). I believe this number will prove to be too low. This is the best offense that Matt Wells has had in his six years here at Utah State, as they are loaded with experience on that side of the ball. Keep in mind that the Aggies averaged better than 30 ppg (30.3) on the road last season. The problem was that they allowed even more than that. Not surprisingly, eight of their past 12 road games have finished above the number. While the Spartans offense wasn't exactly intimidating last season, this is a great opportunity for them to start the season by padding their offensive stats. Expect the final combined score to finish above the low number.
|08-30-18||New Mexico State v. Minnesota OVER 46.5||Top||10-48||Win||100||11 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on New Mexico State / Minnesota to finish OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Admittedly, the Aggies offense didn't look too impressive against Wyoming. However, having a game under their belts will help and I expect them to move the ball more effectively. Stopping the Gophers, who are favored by more than 3 TDs for good reason, is an entirely different matter. The Aggies have seen the OVER go 10-4 on the road the past couple of seasons, as they rarely stop anyone, when playing away from home. Indeed, they allowed an average of 478.2 ypg on the road last season, well over six yards per play. Expect Minnesota to put up a big number and for New Mexico State to supply the rest, as this one finishes above the low number!
|01-08-18||Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 46||Top||26-23||Loss||-105||156 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on Alabama/Georgia to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). You probably watched Georgia trade punches with Oklahoma on New Year's Day. The teams combined for a whopping 102 points. I don't expect to see even half that many on Monday. The Tide were absolutely dominant defensively against Clemson. In the two previous meetings, the Tigers had moved the ball with ease. Not against this year's team. In addition to having a dominant defense which is peaking at the right time, the Tide are a little more conservative on offense than they've been in the past. Georgia's defense, which ultimated stopped the Sooners when it needed to, held its previous three opponents to just 7, 7 and 13 points. In fact, the Bulldogs allowed 14 or fewer points 10 times this season. Look for points to at a premium.
|01-01-18||Alabama v. Clemson UNDER 47||Top||24-6||Win||100||341 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on Alabama and Clemson to finish UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. Last season, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' For Round 3, I'm switching things up and going with the 'under.'
One of the biggest differences from last season is that Alabama now employs a more conservative offense.
Both teams have outstanding defenses. The Tide allowed an average of only 11.5 points on the season, a paltry 257.8 yards. Clemson's numbers were very nearly as good. The Tigers allowed just 12.8 ppg and 277.9 ypg.
Given those impressive defensive stats, its not surprising that both teams have seen the majority of their games fall below the number. The Tide have seen the UNDER go 7-5 on the season, 3-1 against non-conf. opponents. The UNDER was even more profitable for the Tigers. Nine of Clemson's 13 games stayed beneath the total. That includes a 5-1 UNDER record when they were matched up against a team with a winning record.
While we have to go back a number of years, Clemson has seen the UNDER go a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that it played a neutral site game where the O/U line ranged from 45.5 to 49. That includes their last game, where the Tigers' defense dominated Miami and allowed just three points. Expect those stats to improve on New Year's Day.
|12-29-17||NC State v. Arizona State UNDER 59.5||52-31||Loss||-102||9 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on NC State and Arizona State to finish UNDER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). Both these teams were profitable for 'under' bettors this season, particularly NC State. The Wolfpack saw their final three games (and seven of their last eight) dip below the total. Both teams are going to run the ball with regularity, helping to keep the clock moving. Both teams saw this season's lone game, when playing with extra time to prepare, fall below the total. In Arizona State's case that was a 13-7 win over Washington, its best defensive effort of the season. Not bad considering that the Huskies scored 30 or more in 10 of their other 11 games, more than 20 in all of them. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
|12-21-17||Temple v. Florida International OVER 57||28-3||Loss||-105||12 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on Temple/FIU to finish OVER the total (8* BEST BET). This week's first bowl games have both had very high O/U numbers and both games have stayed below the total. This evening, we get a considerably lower O/U number to work. However, this may well prove to be the highest scoring of the bunch. The Owls played some lower-scoring games at the beginning of the season. However, they closed things out by seeing their final five games all finish above the number. All five produced a minimum of 59 combined points. Not to be outdone, the Panthers closed out their season by combining with UMass for 108 points. That marked their fourth straight game which finished above the total, all producing a minimum of 58 points. All things considered, this number could easily be higher. Expect offensive fireworks.
|12-19-17||Akron v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 64.5||3-50||Win||100||34 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on FAU/Akron to finish UNDER the total (8*). Admittedly, the Owls have a pretty potent offense. That said, I still feel that this O/U number, which has risen from its opener, will prove to be too high. The Zips play a "bend but not break" style of defense. They'll be doing all they can to help to slow down the up-tempo Owls. On offense, Akron struggles to score points. They averaged just 18.3 ppg on the road, managing a mere 300.6 ypg of offense. Overall, while FAU home games did average 64.7 ppg, Akron road games averaged only 50.7 points. The Owls defense got stingier down the stretch. Their last two games both stayed below the total, as they limited Charlotte to 12 points and UNT to 17. Akron has seen the UNDER go 17-7 its last 24 in the underdog role and 7-2 the last nine times it was off a conference loss. I expect those stats to improve Tuesday, the final combined score proving lower than many will be expecting.
|12-09-17||Army v. Navy OVER 47.5||Top||14-13||Loss||-100||126 h 36 m||Show|
10* TOTAL MAIN EVENT over Army/Navy. Army comes in off a 52-49 loss to North Texas, while Navy fell 24-14 to Houston in its latest action. These are two teams looking to get back into the winners circle this weekend. Army broke a 14-game losing streak in the series with a 21-17 victory last year and it’ll be looking to add another win onto its already impressive 8-3 record this season. The Midshipmen will be bowling at 6-5, but they clearly can’t be happy with their record overall. The Black Knights are a good defensive team, but last week the unit gave up season high’s in points (52) and total yards (489.) QB Ahmad Bradshaw had 244 rushing yards and two TD’s in the loss. Navy though has in fact lost two straight. In the loss to Houston, QB Zach Abey was just 2 of 4 for 45 yards. Like Bradshaw though, Abey runs the ball, posting 1,322 rushing yards and 14 rushing TD’s this season. Navy’s weak point this year has been its defense, especially against the run. Which clearly doesn’t bode well facing Bradshaw and Army’s run heavy offense. These teams have something to prove and I expect that to result in a higher-scoring affair once it’s all said and done. Play the over.
|11-25-17||Ohio State v. Michigan UNDER 52.5||31-20||Win||100||116 h 59 m||Show|
8* BREAKFAST CLUB TOTAL on the under Ohio State/Michigan. These teams played in a classic last year, with Ohio State coming out on top 30-27 in OT. The 9-2 Buckeyes come to town off a 52-14 thrashing of Illinois at home. Since losing to Iowa on the road 55-24, the Buckeyes have outscored their last two opponents by a combined 100-17. Ohio State is still in the playoff picture. The 8-3 Michigan Wolverines are not. The Wolverines are just 5-3 in the Big Ten West. Michigan is going to be in tough today agasint an Ohio State team with the playoff berth on its mind and a defensive unit which just held the Illini to 105 yards of offense. That doesn’t bode well for Wolverines’ QB Brandon Peters, who was just 9 of 18 for 157 yards last week. A bright spot in last week’s game against the Badgers was Michigan’s defense, which held Wisconsin to just 182 yards on 40 carries and 143 passing yards. I think the conditions are definitely right for a defensive affair. Play the under.
|11-24-17||Baylor v. TCU OVER 50.5||22-45||Win||100||92 h 6 m||Show|
8* BREAKFAST CLUB TOTAL on the over Baylor/TCU. Baylor’s 1-10. The Bears beat Kansas for their only victory of the year and have since dropped back-to-back games to Texas Tech and Iowa State. TCU continues to push right to the final whistle at 9-2, most recently smashing Texas Tech 27-3. Baylor comes in off the 23-13 loss to Iowa State this past weekend, but it’s seen the total go over the number in four of its last six affter scoring 14 points or less in its previous contest. For TCU, this is a big game. If the Horned Frogs win tonight, they’ll snag the No. 2 seed and then play against Oklahoma in the Big 12 conference championship game. TCU started a freshman at QB this past weekend in Shawn Robinson, who replaced Kenny Hill, but he’d manage the game well, tossing one TD, no picks, while also rushing for a team-high 84 yards. I’m expecting TCU to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Play the over.
|11-21-17||Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 60||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||27 h 14 m||Show|
10* TOP MAC TOTAL on the under Bowling Green/Eastern Michigan. Neither team will be playing in a bowl this year. Bowling Green is 2-9 and EMU is 4-7. The Falcons most recently were smashed 66-37 by Toledo last week, while the Eagles managed a 27-24 road victory over Miami Ohio. Bowling Green is averaging just 24.8 PPG this year. The Falcons looked horrible defensively against Toledo, giving up a season high 637 total yards. But with that disaster behind it, I think Bowling Green will look a lot better in the finale against this somewhat disinterested Eastern Michigan side. The EMU defense played well in last week’s win, holding the Redhawks to 392 total yards, including 141 rushing. The one bright spot for the Eagles this year has been their defensive play. I definitely think the conditions are right for a lower-scoring under as these two teams end their campaigns with a whimper.
|11-18-17||Texas A&M v. Ole Miss UNDER 69.5||Top||31-24||Win||100||123 h 47 m||Show|
10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the under Texas A&M/Mississippi. The Aggies finally posted their sixth win of the year in last week’s 55-14 destruction of New Mexico. Now Texas A&M can afford to take the foot off the gas, with two tough road games to end the campaign, in Mississippi this weekend and then finishing up the season at LSU. And for Ole Miss, it still needs one more win to become bowl eligible, as it’s won back-to-back games to keep its hopes alive. The Runnin’ Rebels beat Kansas 37-34, before then hammering Louisiana Lafayette 50-22. Ole Miss won’t be able to turn this one into a “track meet” with A&M though and expect to come out on the winning side. Ultimately I believe that A&M comes in flat-footed after becoming bowl eligible, while I believe that Mississippi’s game-plan will be to try and wear down the Aggies and take control from the get-go. It’s a perfect set of situational factors which all point to the under as the correct call.
|11-11-17||Oregon State v. Arizona UNDER 72||28-49||Loss||-110||127 h 15 m||Show|
8* FAN APPRECIATION SUPER TOTAL on under Oregon State/Arizona. Oregon State is 1-8, while Arizona is bowl eligible at 6-3. With not much on the line for either side this week, I’m expecting this one to sneak below this sky-high number. The Beavers enter on a seven game slide, while the Wildcats had won four in a row (to become bowl eligible), before then suffering a predictable letdown against USC last week. The Beavers couldn’t keep pace in their 37-23 loss at California last Saturday, after falling 15-14 to Stanford the weekend before. Arizona is going to have no mercy today against the Pac 12’s worst offense and second to last defensive unit. The Wildcats season took a turn for the better when Khalil Tate was inserted as the starting QB. In five games he’s rushed for at least 137 yards each time. Last week Tate had 146 yards passing and two TD’s, along with 161 rushing yards and another major score on the ground. The Beavers are terrible on both sides of the ball, but there’s no reason for Arizona to kill itself today and run up this score. This number is just a little high, play the under.
|11-11-17||Michigan State v. Ohio State UNDER 54.5||Top||3-48||Win||100||117 h 14 m||Show|
10* FOX-TV SUPER TOTAL on under Michigan State/Ohio State. Two 7-2 Big Ten teams collide on Saturday afternoon and I think that everything points to a classic lower-scoring defensive battle. Michigan State enters off a 27-24 win at home over Penn State, while Ohio State was humbled in a 55-24 setback to Iowa State in its latest action. Note that when these teams played last year, it was Ohio State that held on for the 17-16 victory. Last week MSU’s defense came to play, allowing only ten points over the final three quarters (466 yards total.) The Spartans also made three INT’s. QB Brian Lewerke was 33 of 56 for 400 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Clearly the Buckeyes will be out to atone after giving up 55 points last weekend. Ohio State QB JT Barrett was just 18 of 34 for 208 yards, three TD’s and four INT’s. If Michigan State is going to pull off another upset this weekend, then it’s going to have to bring its “A” game on the defensive side of the ball again. And as noted above, Ohio State will be on a mission today as well defensively. This number is a little high, play the under.
|11-11-17||Rutgers v. Penn State UNDER 53.5||6-35||Win||100||117 h 20 m||Show|
8* BREAKFAST CLUB TOTAL on under Rutgers/Penn State. Rutgers enters needing two more wins to become bowl eligible (4-5, 3-3 Big Ten East) and it kept its hopes alive in last week’s 31-24 win over Maryland. Scarlet Knights’ QB Giovanni Rescigno had just 107 passsing yards though, as the spotlight fell onto RB Gus Edwards, who finished with a season high 109 rushing yards. A date against Penn State is a tall order, as Rutgers has lost 18 straight to ranked opponents since 2009 (note that Rutgers has been shutout in its last four Big Ten games against ranked foes, getting outscored by a combined 231-0. That includes a 39-0 loss to Penn State last season.) 7-2 Penn State can ill afford to look past its lowly opponent today as it looks to stay within striking distance of the division title. The Nittany Lions come in off a 27-24 loss at Michigan State last weekend on a FG as time expired, so there’s no question that the home side will be looking to atone for that lackustre effort. Penn State must win its final three Big Ten games and get some additional outside help for a shot at the crown. In 2015 the Nittany Lions won this matchup 28-3. Should be another beatdown, but the overall situation definitely points to the under as the correct move in this one.
|11-10-17||Washington v. Stanford OVER 49.5||Top||22-30||Win||100||104 h 12 m||Show|
10* TOTAL FIST FIGHT over Washington/Stanford. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs this year. Washington has seen the Over/Under go 3-6 so far, while Stanford has seen it go 3-6 as well. The Cardinal’s five game win streak was snapped to Washington State last weekend, while the Huskies are now 8-1 after back-to-back wins over UCLA and Oregon. The Huskies smashed Oregon 38-3 last weekend, behind great overall play from all three phases, including a punt-return TD from Dante Pettis. The Cardinal only gained 198 total yards of offense in their 24-21 loss at Washington State. QB KJ Costello was just nine of 20 for 105 yards, no TD’s and one INT. I think Costello settles down after getting thrust into the starters role and he’ll be leaning heavily on RB Bryce Love, who will also be looking to bounce back after posting just 69 yards on 16 carries last weekend, in his first game back from injury. I don’t think Stanford can sit back and hope that its defense can pull this one out for it. So with the home side pushing the pace, I expect this one to soar over sooner, rather than later.
|11-08-17||Eastern Michigan v. Central Michigan UNDER 49||Top||30-42||Loss||-115||35 h 33 m||Show|
10* TOTAL ROAST is the under EMU/CMU. Eastern Michigan would have to run the table at a shot at a bowl, while the Chips need just one more victory to become eligible. Eastern Michigan has a tough task ahead of it and it looks set up for a letdown here after its 56-14 win over Ball State last weekend to move it to 1-4 in the MAC. The Chips though are surging towards the finish line, as they’ve won three of their last four, including a come from behind victory over Western Michigan last week. It’s been a tough year for the Eagles, who have lost their last four conference games by a grand total of 12 points. Last week QB Brogan Roback had a big game with 263 yards, three TD’s and no picks, but he’s been inconsistent all year. Just like his team. The Chips outscored the Broncos 21-0 in the fourth quarter last week and I think that defensive momentum gets carried over here. This one has the feeling of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” This number is just a little high, play the under.
|11-04-17||South Carolina v. Georgia UNDER 46||10-24||Win||100||71 h 55 m||Show|
9* TV TOTAL on under South Carolina/Georgia. South Carolina has won three straight, most recently getting the better of Vanderbilt 34-27 at home last weekend. Georgia remains unbeaten, most recently crushing Florida 42-7 in Jacksonville last Saturday. Whenever these teams gets together it’s a battle, but it’s one which Georgia has for the most part dominated, owning a lifetime 45-17-2 edge. That includes a 28-14 win on the road last October. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. South Carolina averages just 26.3 PPG (81st), while ranked 30th overall on the defensive side by allowing only 20.3. QB Jake Bentley has been serviceable with a 9:4 TD:INT. Bentley and the rest of the Gamecocks now go up against the third ranked defense in the nation which has allowed only 11.9 PPG. The Bulldogs are just as good on the other side of the ball, averaging 38.1 PPG, which is ranked 20th overall. Georgia QB Jake Fromm has a 13:4 TD:INT, while RB Nick Chubb had 765 yards and nine TD’s. The Gamecocks are the only team left that can threaten the Bulldogs in the SEC East and clearly they aren’t going to roll over here. This is going to be a game that’s won in the trenches and one which I believe will fall under the number once it’s all said and done.
|11-02-17||Navy v. Temple OVER 54||Top||26-34||Win||100||33 h 8 m||Show|
10* BLUE CHIP on the over Navy/Temple. Perhaps surprisingly, these two teams have struggled to put points on the board at times this year. Navy has seen the O/U go 2-5, while Temple has seen it go 2-6. The Owls though come in off a hard-fought 31-28 OT loss at Army two weeks ago and suffice it to say, I think the team carries that momentum over here as it seeks its sixth win of the season. The Midshipmen also come in off a hard-fought setback, falling 31-21 to UCF on October 21st. Navy ranks as the No. 1 rushing offense in the nation, averaging a whopping 376.1 YPG, while owning the 24th ranked total offense with 470.7 YPG. Defensively though the Mids are a bit of a mess, allowing 410.3 YPG (ranked 84th). QB Zach Abey has 1,142 rushing yards, 606 passing and 13 major scores overall this season. The Owls ranks 93rd in the nation in total yards per game (372.6), while ranked 73rd defensively in conceding 398.2. Temple QB Frank Nutile replaced an injured Logan Marchi in the Army loss and looked superb, going 20 of 29 for 290 yards, one TD and no picks. RB Ryquell Amstead had 151 rushing yards and two TD’s in that one. This one has the feeling of a wide open “shootout” to me and I expect this total to eclipse the number sooner rather than later. Play the over.
|11-01-17||Central Michigan v. Western Michigan OVER 48||Top||35-28||Win||100||26 h 52 m||Show|
10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the “over” CMU/WMU. This is a big game for both teams. CMU is 2-2 in the MAC and 4-4 overall, while WMU is 3-1 in the MAC and 5-3 overall. Both teams are desperate for victories here as we come to the end of the season, of course needing to reach at least a sixth victory to become bowl “eligible.” Both teams also come in rested, as each last played on October 21st. Western Michigan won 20-17 over EMU in OT, while Central Michigan crushed Ball State 56-9. The Chips looked sharp defensively last time out, but that was against the lowly Cardinals. Clearly the unit faces a much stiffer test this week. The Broncos lost starting QB John Wassink in the win over Eastern Michigan early in the game, but freshman Reece Goddard was seviceable in reflief. In the end the Broncos rolled up 422 yards of offense once it was all said and done anyways (it must be noted though that they looked shaky defensively, allowing 459 total yards.) The Broncos scored the 49-10 win on the road at Central Michigan last year and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Play the over.
|10-14-17||Eastern Michigan v. Army OVER 45||27-28||Win||100||89 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on Army/Eastern Michigan OVER the total (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). Eastern Michigan has seen all of its game fall below the number thus far. Those results have worked in our favor, as we're now getting an O/U line in the mid 40s to work with. I believe that'll prove to be too low. When these teams last met, the O/U line was in the mid-50s and they combined for 94 points. Army ran for 556 yards. Eastern Michigan had almost 500 total yards, too. Army's last two games have produced 56 and 61 points. Three games here are averaging 54.7. The Eagles have seen the OVER go 7-3 the last 10 times that they were off two or more consecutive losses. Meanwhile, the Knights have seen the OVER go 10-4 in the favorite role the past 2+ seasons. All things considered, this number is too low.
|10-11-17||South Alabama v. Troy OVER 48||Top||19-8||Loss||-110||52 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on South Alabama/Troy OVER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). As both these teams enter on "under" streaks, we're being given a very low O/U line to work with. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Even though the Jaguars have been seeing their games finish below the total, they haven't seen any O/U lines this low. Four of their five games have produced a minimum of 50 combined points, the other resulting in a 45-0 win over a 1-AA team. That opponent (Alabama A&M) was the only one which didn't throw for big yards against the Jaguars. Other opposing QB's have torched them for 429, 342, 273, and 317 yards through the air. While they feature a balanced attack, the Trojans should be able to exploit that secondary; they've thrown for more than 300 yards in each of their two home games. Last year's game finished with 49 points, a 28-21 victory for Troy. The Trojans easily could have had more than 28 though, as they accumulated 585 yards of offense. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score finishing above the low number.
|10-07-17||California v. Washington OVER 56.5||7-38||Loss||-110||109 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on Cal/Washington to finish OVER the total (8* SHOOTOUT). These teams combined for 93 points in last year's game. By halftime, they already had 55. The Huskies would finish the game with more than 700 yards of total offense. Washington figures to put up another big number on Saturday night.
The Huskies have scored 30 or more points in all five games, thus far. They're averaging 55.5 ppg in two games here. Not surprisingly, both finished above the total.
The Bears' defense can be susceptible; Cal gave up 45 last game. In their previous road game, the Bears allowed 30 points. They're allowing an average of 448.4 ypg.
To their credit, the Bears can score some points themselves. They've scored at least 20 in all five games. They're averaging 27.8 ppg and 29.5 ppg on the road. Both their road games have finished above the number, each producing a minimum of 65 combined points. All things considered, this O/U line could easily be higher.
|10-04-17||Arkansas State v. Georgia Southern OVER 54.5||43-25||Win||100||52 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on Arkansas State / Georgia Southern to finish OVER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). Last year's game stayed below the total. Barely. The O/U line was 53.5 and the teams combined for 53 points. Each team moved the ball, each team scored more than 25 points. With more than 500 yards of offense, Arkansas State, in particularly, easily could have scored more.
Both defenses have already proven vulnerable this season. Arkansas State has allowed 43 and 44 points, respectively, in its two road games. Georgia Southern allowed 52 last time out, after permitting 41 in its opening game.
While the Eagles remain winless, the Red Wolves have seen the OVER go 8-3 the last 11 times they faced a sub-500 opponent. Expect some fireworks.
|09-30-17||Texas State v. Wyoming OVER 45.5||10-45||Win||100||31 h 42 m||Show|
I'm playing on Wyoming/Texas State to finish OVER the total (8* SUPER TOTAL). The Cowboys have seen all four of their games finish below the total. NONE of those games came against sub-500 teams though. Now, they'll take on a Texas State team which is 1-3, its lone win coming against Houston Baptist. Texas State just gave up 44 points to UTSA last week and gave up 37 in its lone road game. The Cowboys saw the OVER go 5-1 when facing sub-500 teams the past two seasons and also 5-2 when coming off a conference win. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score finishing above the low number.
|09-23-17||UCLA v. Stanford UNDER 58||34-58||Loss||-110||30 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on Stanford/UCLA to finish UNDER the total (8* BEST BET). Both these teams lost last week. Stanford fell 20-17 at San Diego State while UCLA lost 48-45 at Memphis. As some of you know, we successfully played against the Cardinal in that loss at SDSU. They'd been off a big loss at USC and I felt they could easily get caught looking ahead to this one. That makes it b2b losses for Stanford, something which hasn't happened a lot in recent seasons. The only time the Cardinal suffered b2b losses the last two seasons was fairly early/mid last season, when they were coming off b2b setbacks against Washington and Washington State. Off those b2b losses, the Cardinal faced Notre Dame next, a game with an O/U line in the 50s. The Irish had scored 28 or more in five of their six games, 35 or more in four of six. What happened? The Cardinal clamped down defensively and won 17-10. Including that result, the UNDER is a lucrative 29-11 the last 40 games (which had a total) the Cardinal played, when off b2b losses. Last season's game against UCLA had an O/U line in the 40s and finished with a final score of 22-13. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected.
|09-16-17||Wisconsin v. BYU OVER 41||40-6||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on BYU/Wisconsin to finish OVER the total (8* BEST BET). With all due respect to the defenses, I believe that this number is too low. Wisconsin has scored 90 points through two games, averaging more than 500 yards of offense per game. The Cougars check in off back-to-back low-scoring losses against Utah and LSU, the primary reason for such a low O/U number. Note that they've seen the OVER go 2-1 the past couple of seasons, when off back-to-back SU losses. While we have to go back aways, its also interesting to note that the OVER is 2-0 when the Cougars played a home game with the O/U line set at 42 or less. With the "over" at 28-18 the last 46 games (with a total) when the Badgers were favored in the -10.5 to -21 range, look for this one to also prove higher scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score finishing above the low number.
|09-14-17||New Mexico v. Boise State OVER 58.5||14-28||Loss||-110||13 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on Boise/New Mexico to finish OVER the total (8* BEST BET). This number could easily be higher. Last year's game had an O/U line of 62 and finished with 70 points. This year, the Lobos returned seven starters on offense but only three on defense. In fact, the New Mexico defense lost eight of its top nine tacklers. Boise State scored 49 points against the Lobos last season and figures to have no problem exploiting a suspect secondary. Last week, rival New Mexico State threw for more than 400 yards against the Lobos. Abilene Christian threw for 274 yards against them. The Lobos can score too though, as they're averaging 33 points and 455 yards. Don't be surprised when this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting.
|09-09-17||Utah v. BYU OVER 45||19-13||Loss||-110||61 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on Utah/BYU to finish OVER the total (8* BEST BET). These teams played a low-scoring game (20-19) against each other last year. That has added to the perception that we should expect another defensive affair this season. That in turn, has led to a very low O/U line, one which has come down from its opener. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Utes have a new offense which features a heavier dose of the pass. QB Huntley was sharp in the opener, completing 23 of 32 passes. As for the Cougars, they've averaged more than 28 ppg in six straight seasons. They scored 14 or more in every game last season and have topped the 50 mark in four of their past 16 games. Expect both teams to have success moving the ball, the final combined score proving considerably higher than last year.
|09-04-17||Tennessee v. Georgia Tech OVER 55||Top||42-41||Win||100||25 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on Tennessee/G-Tech OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). This O/U line looks to be a little on the low side. Tennessee games averaged 65.2 points. When the Vols played away from home, that number climbed all the way to 67.2. In their final three games, the Vols' saw their games produce an average of 80.3 points. Those games produced an average of nearly 1100 total yards, too. True, the Vols no longer have QB Dobbs. However, their offense does return seven starters and should still be solid. As for the Yellow Jackets, they return eight starters on offense. They should be able to move the ball against a Vols' defense which allowed an average of 449 ypg last season. With this game being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (new home of the Falcons) note that the Vols have seen the OVER go a perfect 4-0 their last four "neutral" field games. Expect those stats to improve Monday night.
|09-02-17||Vanderbilt v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 59||28-6||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
I'm playing on Vanderbilt/MTSU UNDER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). Last year's game, at Vanderbilt, was high-scoring. However, the previous season, when the teams last met here, the game was very defensive in nature. The final score of that one was only 17-13 and the score was actually only 13-3 with less than seven minutes remaining. This evening, we're getting a considerably higher O/U line to work with than we were for either of those games. I feel that it'll prove to be generously high. Last year, Vanderbilt averaged a mere 16.9 ppg on the road, averaging just 311.9 ypg. Including their visit here in 2015, the Commodores have seen the UNDER go 9-2 on the road, the past couple of seasons. Expect those stats to improve here.
|09-01-17||Boston College v. Northern Illinois UNDER 51||Top||23-20||Win||100||85 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing on BC/NIU to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). This number is generously high. The last meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 44.5 and produced just 31 points. The Eagles would end up beating the Huskies by a 17-14 score. While that was two seasons ago and at Boston College, this one could well have a similar score. Boston College road games averaged only 42.4 combined points last season, the UNDER going 6-3. In fact, the UNDER has been money for years (62-35 L97!) when the Eagles take to the road. During that span and including the 2015 meeting, the Huskies have seen the UNDER go 37-20 when listed as underdogs, 6-4 the past couple of seasons. More of the same Friday.
|01-09-17||Clemson v. Alabama OVER 51||Top||35-31||Win||100||178 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on Clemson and Alabama to finish OVER the total 10* TOTAL OF MONTH. With both teams coming off dominant defensive efforts and the Tide having just gotten rid of offensive coordinator Kiffin, many are going to be expecting a low-scoring game. Many thought the same thing last year, when both these same teams also entered the final off low-scoring defensive games. In fact, besides the Kiffin situation, (more on that later) the setup is quite similar to last year.
Last year, Alabama was off a dominant defensive performance against Michigan State. The Spartans, who came in averaging more than 32 ppg, didn't score a single point. Meanwhile, Clemson was off a game in which it held normally high-scoring OU to only 17 points. Oklahoma entered that game averaging 45.7 ppg and 542.9 ypg. With Alabama and Clemson having just kept teams to 28+ and 32+ points below their average, many were expecting a defensive final.
As you likely recall, thats not what happened. I played on the 'over' and the teams combined for a whopping 85 points. The Tide put up 45 of those points while Clemson's Deshaun Watson carved up a #3 ranked Alabama defense, setting the record for the most total yards (478!) in national championship game history. Off last year's game, both offenses are going to come in confident that they're going to score.
Some may be down on the Bama offense after last week's admittedly less than impressive performance against Washington. Lets not forget that the Tide are still averaging 39.4 ppg (460.9 ypg) on the season including 40.9 ppg on the road. The firing of Kiffin, who was already on his way out, shows the type of urgency that Saban has. While the timing of that move may have been a bit out of the ordinary, Saban believes its the best move for the offense and I'm going to trust his judgement. While the Tigers were indeed impressive against Ohio State, don't forget that four teams scored 34 or more points against them this season. I'm confident that the Tide are also going to be able to move the ball and put it in the end zone with relative regularity.
The Tigers were a profitable 'under' team against sub-500 teams. However, the OVER was 6-3 when they faced teams with a winning record. They check in averaging 39.5 ppg to go along with an impressive 502.1 yards per game. Off last year's performance, also against a very strong Alabama defense, they believe they can do it again.
Including last year's game, Alabama has seen the OVER go 8-2 its last 10 neutral site games and 5-1 the last six times it was a neutral field favorite in the -3.5 to -7 range. While I'm not expecting as many points as last year, I AM expecting the final score to again finish above the low number.