|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-15-18||North Texas +9 v. Utah State||Top||13-52||Loss||-105||238 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* MAIN EVENT). The Aggies will say all the right things that they're happy to be here. They're not. They wanted a bigger bowl and this is a disappointment. That type of disappointment makes it difficult to win, let alone cover a big number. The Aggies' task is made that much tougher by the fact that the Mean Green are actually pretty good. In 2015, the Mean Green won only a single game, before hiring current head coach Seth Littrell. That hiring proved to be huge for them, as they've been competitive ever since. This marks their second straight season with nine wins and this is their best team under Littrel. While Littrel was rumord to be heading to K-State, he reportedly withdrew his name from consideration. Meanwhile, Utah State's coach (Matt Wells) has already left for Texas Tech. The Aggie offensive and defensive coordinators joined him, too. Having come up short in bowl games the past two seasons, the Mean Green have something to prove. I believe that this game means more to them and I expect that to lead to AT LEAST a cover.
|12-01-18||Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 61.5||Top||24-45||Win||100||12 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on NW/OSU OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). With all due respect to the NW defense, this line is too low. The Buckeyes scored 62 points against a "stingy" Michigan team last time out. Their previous game, they dropped 52 on Maryland. Both games produced more than 100 combined points. Expect the OVER to improve to 8-4 the last 12 times that OSU was favored in the -10.5 to -21 range.
|12-01-18||Georgia +13 v. Alabama||Top||28-35||Win||100||25 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on GEORGIA (10* CONF. CHAMP. GAME OF YEAR). As per usual, Alabama had a dominant season. The Tide finished at 12-0. The Bulldogs weren't far off, however, as they finished at 11-1. With this game being played at Atlanta and the Dawgs getting double-digits at the betting window, I believe that we're getting outstanding value. True, Alabama hammered LSU, the team which handed Georgia its lone loss. However, Sometimes a loss can actually help a team. Since the loss to the Tigers, Georgia has emphasized its power-running game, averaging over 300 rushing yards over its past five games. Thats the one spot (run defense) that the Tide may be a little vulnerable, too. (Over the past two weeks, Alabama has allowed more than 400 rushing yards.) Don't be surprised when the Bulldogs shock the world.
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois +3.5 v. Buffalo||Top||30-29||Win||100||77 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on NIU (10* MAIN EVENT). The Bulls have had an excellent season and are clearly an improved team. Improvement was expected, as they brought back 14 returning starters. While 10 wins may not have been expected, their schedule was considerably softer than the one that NIU played. I'm not convinced that they're the real deal. Mixed in with Buffalo's 10 wins were two blowout losses, which I believe are revealing. Army and Ohio were able to beat them by 29 and 35. We're not talking Alabama and Clemson - Army and Ohio. Army couldn't even beat teams like Lafayette and Colgate by nearly that many. Likewise, for Ohio. Favored by more than 4 TD's, the Bobcats only beat Howard by eight. Yet, those teams destroyed Buffalo. On the other side, I don't think the Huskies, who faced the likes of Utah, Iowa and Florida State, are getting enough respect. This is a team with playmakers all over the field. I'll gladly take the points but I expect the Huskies to rise to the occasion and win this one outright.
|11-24-18||Notre Dame v. USC OVER 54||Top||24-17||Loss||-109||106 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on ND/USC OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). As you know, this is a huge game.Notre Dame, facing its biggest rival, finishes undefeated with a victory. However, as Brian Kelley noted: "Playing there is never easy..." I feel that the O/U line is going to prove to be too low. The Trojans have scored a minimum of 27 points in five of their last six games; they're average 32.4 ppg at home. Notre Dame, meanwhile, averages a whopping 44 ppg and an impressive 513 ypg, when playing on the road. Last year's game produced 63 points. The year before, the last time that ND played here, the teams combined for 72. Expect the OVER to improve to 8-2 the last 10 times the the Irish were laying points on the road.
|11-24-18||Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -4||Top||3-24||Win||100||79 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* ANNIHILATOR). Playing at Pittsburgh, on this very day exactly one year ago, the Panthers upset the Hurricanes last season. However, when the teams last met in Miami, the Canes, who were favored by four points, hammered the Panthers by a 51-28 score. Back at Miami, I expect the Canes to have the advantage once again. While the Panthers are 2-3 away from Pittsburgh, the Canes are 4-1 at Miami. Pitt. has been outscored 25.6 to 24 on the road. Miami has outscored teams by a 39 to 14.8 margin here at home. Visiting teams are averaging just 216.8 yards per game here. The Canes destroyed V-Tech last time out and I expect them to carry the momentum into this afternoon's game.
|11-23-18||Virginia v. Virginia Tech +4||Top||31-34||Win||100||74 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on V-Tech (10* BEST BET). I won with the Hokies in last season's 10-0 win. They were favored by -6.5 or -7 for that one, despite playing on the road. Now, playing at home, we're getting points. With all due respect to Virginia, I believe thats providing us with excellent value on the Hokies. If you just looked at the schedule, you'd see that this is the final game for the 4-6 Hokies, which would mean that they'd have no shot at making a bowl. However, there was an earlier game postponed and V-Tech and Marshall have agreed to a conditional game, which will be played here at Lane Stadium, on Dec. 1st. That means that if V-Tech can win this one, it'd absolutely be looking at bowl eligility. The Hokies have long dominated their instate rival. They'll face a Cavs team which has dropped two if its last three, the lone win coming against Liberty. V-Tech senior Ricky Walker had this to say: "This game is my favorite game of the year. It's nothing like playing those guys. No matter what, they always think they're better than us, and we just keep on winning, and just dominate… at the end of the day we just want to keep that cup in Blacksburg." Everything on the line in the biggest game of the year, expect the Walker and the Hokies to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST a cover.
|11-17-18||Tulsa v. Navy -5||Top||29-37||Win||100||78 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on NAVY (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Midshipmen have had an extremely difficult schedule. Tulsa is the weakest team that they've faced since September. Their last four games came against the likes of Cincinnati, UCF, Houston and Notre Dame. Those teams are 9-1, 9-0, 7-3 and 10-0. Now, the Midshipmen take a significant step down in class to take on a Tulsa team which is just 2-8. With a rare chance at victory, they won't waste the opportunity. Navy beat Tulsa by double-digits last season. Considering that Tulsa is winless on the road, each of the last four losses coming by double-digits, I'm expecting more of the same Saturday afternoon.
|11-17-18||Nevada v. San Jose State UNDER 60||Top||21-12||Win||100||78 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on Nevada/SJ State UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). The last time that Nevada played here, the O/U line was 56 but the teams combined for only 24 points, a 14-10 win for the Spartans. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. True, the Spartans got lit up for 62 points last week. However, that was at Utah State against an extremely explosive Aggie offense. Off that effort, they'll absolutely be looking to improve defensively this week. Note that the only previous time that SJSU allowed more than 50 points this season, it responded by holiding SDSU to just 16 points the next time out, a 16-13 loss in a game where the O/U line was 62. Nevada allowed just 10 points last time out and allowed only 22 its last road game, a win at Hawaii. Including that result, a game where I won with the 'under,' the Wolfpack have seen the UNDER go 11-5 their last 16 on the road. That includes a 7-3 UNDER mark in road games where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. Expect those stats to improve Saturday.
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic +3.5 v. North Texas||Top||38-41||Win||100||14 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on FAU (10* BEST BET). The Owls hammered North Texas again last season, after beating the Mean Green by 38 points (69-31) the previous season. Off b2b blowout wins and playing their best football of the season right now, I feel that they're offering us excellent value once again. Thats particularly true with this line opening below three and passing right through that important number. Having put up nearly 1200 yards of total offense their past two games alone, the Owls are oozing with confidence right now. On the other hand, North Texas lost outright, when favored by more than two touchdowns, in its last game. I'll gladly grab the points but I like FAU to win this one outright.
|11-14-18||Buffalo v. Ohio -1||Top||17-52||Win||100||55 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on OHIO (10* MAIN EVENT). Yes, I successfully played against the Bobcats, at Miami, last week. However, I've also won with them this season and I'm coming right back with them here. Even after spotting Miami a 28-7 lead, the Bobcats were never out of it. Here at home, they've been dominant, a perfect 4-0. Their last two games here saw the Bobcats win by a combined score of 101-28. Granted, Buffalo has had an excellent season. Even if the Bobcats beat the Bulls here, its going to be very difficult to catch them in the MAC East. Buffalo's final game is on the road. However, it comes against a weak Bowling Green team. So, the Bulls know that even if lose this one, they're still in pretty good shape. Division implications aside, expect the Bobcats to make a statement, showing that they may finish second in the East but that they can beat any team in the league, at least when playing on their home field.
|11-10-18||San Jose State v. Utah State UNDER 63||Top||24-62||Loss||-109||80 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on Utah State / SJ State to finish UNDER the total (10* MWC TOTAL OF THE YEAR. As you likely know, the Utah State offense has been extremely potent all season long. Thats led to higher and higher O/U lines. I feel that this one will prove to be too high. Last week, the Aggies saw QB Jordan Love leave with a hit to the head. His status is currently up in the air. I'm going to assume that he'll play. However, with the Aggies favored by greater than four TD's, there's little reason to take any chances. Either way, the Aggies will score points, as per usual. Just not as many as most will be expecting. San Jose State is in the second year of a new defense and is slowly showing signs of improvement. The last two times that they were large underdogs (Wyoming and SDSU) they allowed only 24 and 16 points, despite being +17.5 and +25.5 point underdogs. In their lone game where they were underdogs of a similar size to what they are here (+30.5 underdogs against WSU) they allowed only 31 points, losing 31-0. The only time that they were bigger underdogs than that was at Oregon and that game stayed below the number by double-digits, too. The Spartans, who have scored less than 14 points in three of their last four, figure to have real trouble scoring; Utah State held Hawaii to 43 rushing yards on 20 carries. The UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in SJ State road games. I expect those stats to improve Sat. afternoon.
|11-07-18||Ohio v. Miami-OH +4.5||Top||28-30||Win||100||12 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO (10* VIOLATOR). With the line climbing above three, in my opinion, we're getting excellent value with the home underdog. Note that Miami is 12-6 ATS its last 18, when getting points. Note that Ohio will be playing its second straight road game. This marks the third time that the Bobcats played b2b games away from home. In both previous cases, they lost. Off a neutral site game, they lost (but covered) at Cincy the next week. (I won with Ohio that week.) Off a game at Kent State, the Bobcats then lost at NIU. Note that both games were very close, each decided by four or less. Miami won its last game here by a score of 31-6 and lost its previous one by a single points. I like Miami's chances of the outright upset but in a game that may well come down to the wire, I'll happily grab the points.
|11-03-18||San Diego State v. New Mexico UNDER 48.5||Top||31-23||Loss||-118||61 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on SDSU / New Mexico UNDER the total. The Lobos got lit up last week. That was on the road against a very high-scoring Utah State team though. This week, determined to improve defensively, they'll face an entirely different type of team; they Aztecs have been winning with defense all season. Through eight games, San Diego State is averaging only 21.1 points. On the road, that number dips to 17.7. The Aztec defense permits only 19.6 ppg. The Aztecs should be able to limit the Lobos, who are averaging just 14.7 ppg and 295 ypg their last three games. Last season's game was 14-0 at halftime. The second half saw some more points but the final was still only 35-10. The Aztecs have been money for 'under' bettors on the road over the years (68-39 Under mark L107) and they've seen two of three road games fall below the number this season. More of the same Saturday night.
|11-03-18||Louisiana Tech v. Mississippi State -20.5||Top||3-45||Win||100||127 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* NON-CONF GAME OF YEAR). The team from the SEC won last year's "Bulldog Battle" by 36 points. That was at LA Tech, too. With this year's rematch being placed at Miss. State, I'm absolutely expecting another lopsided result. The Bulldogs are 3-0 SU/ATS when facing a team from outside of SEC play, making the most of every non-conf. opportunity. LA Tech is playing the second of b2b road games. They'll face a Miss. State team which is outscoring teams by an average of 35.2 to 10.2 here at home. Their last two games here have been blowout victories over A&M and Auburn. Expect a one-sided affair.
|11-01-18||Ohio v. Western Michigan -2||Top||59-14||Loss||-105||82 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. I had the 'over' in last week's WMU game. So, I wasn't thrilled when QB Wassinick went down in the first quarter. However, Kaleb Eleby quickly put my mind at rest. Eleby completed his first eight passes and finished the game 23-for-28 for 293 yards, two touchdowns and a QB rating of 193.6. While the Broncos still lost, poor QB play wasn't the problem. This week, the Broncos will face Ohio, a team that they beat (29-23) to win the MAC title a couple of years ago. The Broncos did a fantastic job of shutting down the Ohio running game in that one, holding the Bobcats to 37 yards on 22 carries. Overall, they held a commanding edge in total yards and time of possession. The Broncos were favored by more than two TDs (opened at -18, closed at -16.5) for that one, despite the game being played at Ford Field. Of course, the faces are different now and much has changed. However, not enough has changed to warrant such a massive pointspread swing, in my opinion. While I respect the Bobcats (won with them at Cincy) they've only won one of four games away from home and that came by a single point. True, the Broncos got lit up last week. Its also true that the last time that they were off a loss, they responded with a 68-0 win, the start of a 6-game winning streak. They're 2-1 ATS the past couple of seasons off a conference loss and 4-1 ATS when playing a game where the line ranged from -3 to +3. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Thursday.
|10-31-18||Ball State v. Toledo UNDER 66||Top||13-45||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on Toledo/Ball State to finish UNDER the total (10* O/U VIOLATOR). Its true that I won with the 'over' a couple of Toledo games this season, including last week at WMU. However, that was against a Bronco team which could trade punches with them. Tonight, the Rockets face a Cardinal team which averages only 16 ppg pn the road. Not surprisingly, three of Ball State's four road games have fallen below the total. With their opponent unable to score many points, the Rockets won't need to score as many themselves. Their last home game (vs. Buffalo two weeks ago) stayed below the number by double-digits and so did their last game here vs. Ball State. The Rockets were laying -20 for that one, a game with an O/U line of 68. The final score was 37-19. I'm expecting a similar result here.
|10-27-18||Washington State v. Stanford -3||Top||41-38||Loss||-102||124 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on STANFORD (10* PAC 12 GOM). The Cougars have been rolling but I expect the Cardinal to finally slow them down on Saturday. I won with the Cardinal in their last game, a road win at ASU. I really like the fact that game was on a Thursday, giving Stanford some extra time for this big showdown. This is a game that Stanford has had circled as the Cougars beat them each of the last two seasons, blowing them out here in 2016. The Cardinal haven't forgotten. While the Cougars are allowing 31.7 ppg on the road this season, the Cardinal are allowing 15.7 pgg at home. Playing at home, where they're 17-8 ATS the last 25 times that the O/U line ranged from 52.5 to 56, expect them to finish on top, covering the small number along the way.
|10-27-18||Texas A&M v. Mississippi State OVER 43.5||Top||13-28||Loss||-109||33 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on Texas A&M / Mississippi State OVER the total (10* SEC TOTAL OF YEAR). Both teams have seen their recent games finish below the total. Those recent results have worked in our favor by providing us with an extremely low O/U line to work with, among the lowest on the Saturday board. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. While you wouldn't know it by the O/U line, the Aggies can move the ball and score points. They average 32.3 ppg and 486.7 ypg. They've faced the likes of Kentucky (12.9 ppg allowed) Clemson (13.4 ppg allowed) and Alabama (15.9 ppg allowed) yet have still scored a minimum of 20 points in every game. While the Bulldog offense has struggled of late, take a look at their last four opponents, LSU, Kentucky, Auburn and Florida. All four of those teams rank in top 15 in the country in terms of points allowed. All of them allow fewer than 17 ppg. While still respectable, the Aggie defense isn't as good as the Bulldogs' previous four opponents. In two road games, A&M is allowing an average of 34 ppg. Prior to facing those four Top 15 defenses, the Bulldogs had scored 63, 31, and 56 points. They're still averaging 37 ppg and 461 ypg through four home games. Last season's game had an O/U line of 54. The previous season, the O/U line was 60.5. Those games finished with 49 and 63 points, respectively. The Aggies have only been underdogs twice this season and both games finished above the total. More of the same Saturday.
|10-26-18||Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic -2.5||Top||21-13||Loss||-109||104 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on FAU (10* VIOLATOR). Its been a tough start to the season for the Owls. However, the reality is that they've had an extremely difficult schedule. They've only played three home games and they won all three of them. The four road games came at places like Oklahoma and UCF. A home game against LA Tech, a team the Owls hammered 48-23 last November, figures to be just what the doctor ordered. While the Bulldogs are off a win, note that they're already 0-2 ATS when off a conference victory. Both teams obviously need the win but the Owls arguably need it more. This is an FAU team which absolutely still expects to get to a bowl but one which knows it needs to take care of business in this game to make that goal realistic. Expect a win and cover.
|10-25-18||Toledo v. Western Michigan OVER 65||Top||51-24||Win||100||73 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing Toledo/Western Michigan OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Some of you may recall that I won with the 'over' when the Rockets faced Fresno a few weeks ago. At the time, among other things, I mentioned that Toledo was the first team in NCAA history to bring back three receivers which had caught at least 10 TD passes, in a season, at some point in their career. That game ended up flying over the number, producing 76 combined points. The Rockets' next game (Bowling Green) did too, finishing with 78. Since then, however, they've seen two straight games fall below the number. Those results, combined with the fact that the Broncos are off an 'under' of their own, have kept this number lower than it easily could have been. Realistically, the number could have easily opened in the 70s, in my opinion. The Rockets defense is poor and when matched up against a capable opponent, they get lit up. They've been underdogs twice this season. Both times they gave up 49 points, while also scoring 24 or more. Both finished above the total by double-digits. In three home games, the Broncos are averaging 45.7 ppg and 511 ypg. They'll be licking their chops at the prospects of facing this defense. Averaging more than 39 ppg themselves, however, the Rockets have the ability to trade punches. Toledo's last visit here had an O/U line of 72 and finished with 90 points, a 55-35 final. Expect another shootout.
|10-21-18||Nevada v. Hawaii UNDER 69||Top||40-22||Win||100||87 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing Nevada/Hawaii UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). We're working with a very high O/U number here and I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Nevada's last three games produced 58, 24 and 53 combined points. Allowing 31 last week wasn't as bad as it sounds, considering the opponent was Boise State and the Broncos were averaging more than 37 ppg coming in. Hawaii's last home game produced just 30 points. The Warriors' previous home game finished with 63. The last five meetings between these teams have ALL finished below the total, none of those games having a number nearly as high as this one. Those games finished with 56, 55, 50, 44 and 40 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|10-20-18||Memphis v. Missouri -9.5||Top||33-65||Win||100||94 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on MISSOURI (10* GAME OF MONTH). This game was already going to be very tough for the Tigers to win. However, last week's result will make it even more so. Memphis is off a heart-breaking loss against UCF. The Tigers were up big at halftime, squandered the lead, had a chance to win, only to lose 31-30. As quarterback Brady White said: "This one hurts, for sure. We should've won that game." That very likely killed Memphis' hopes of competing for a division title. Those type of losses often take a toll and I expect that to be the case here. Missouri is off games against Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama, the last two of which came on the road. A break from SEC play will provide a welcome relief. Missouri is already 2-0 SU/ATS as a home favorite this season, winning by 37 and 27. Expect another double-digit win on Saturday afternoon.
|10-18-18||Stanford -2.5 v. Arizona State||Top||20-13||Win||100||75 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on STANFORD (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Cardinal had to fight hard to come back to beat Oregon. That victory seemed to take a toll, as they were hammered at Notre Dame the next week. Their undefeated record snapped, they followed it up with another loss, vs Utah, after that. Having had some time off, since those back-to-back losses, I expect the Cardinal to respond with their best effort on Thursday night. Stanford is 7-1 SU (5-2-1 ATS) its last eight as a road favorite. That includes a 3-0-1 ATS mark as a road favorite of three or fewer points. The Cardinal have suffered b2b SU losses (in the same season) twice over the past couple of seasons. Each time, they responded by winning and covering their next game, a 17-10 win at Notre Dame and a 58-34 win against UCLA. Expect them to bounce back with another win and cover Thursday.
|10-13-18||Colorado v. USC -7||Top||20-31||Win||100||58 h 14 m||Show|
I'm playing on USC (10* GAME OF WEEK). Colorado comes in with the higher ranking but the Trojans are favored for good reason. While all they can do is beat who the teams that they face, a closer look at the Buffaloes' schedule shows that its been very soft. The only true road game was at Nebraska and the Huskers have been a mess. The other games came against Colorado State, UCLA, New Hampshire and Arizona State - none of which have the type of talent that USC does. The Trojans are still undefeated at home and they're off back-to-back victories of their own. Those two wins (vs. Washington State and at Arizona) are both arguably more impressive than anything Colorado has accomplished. The Trojans won at 14 at Colorado this season. Look for the Buffaloes, just 4-9 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range, to come back down to earth.
|10-13-18||Wisconsin v. Michigan UNDER 48||Top||13-38||Loss||-109||106 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on Wisconsin/Michigan UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). Both teams have seen three of their past four finish above the total. Those results have helped in providing us with a relatively generous O/U line, one which I feel will prove to be too high. A look at last season's meeting, at Wisconsin, reveals that the O/U line was just 41. The most recent meeting here at Michigan was the previous season, a game which had an O/U line of 44. You may recall that each of the games finished well below the number, the home team dominating defensively in both. Last season's game was tied 7-7 at halftime and finished with a final score of 24-10. The 2016 game here at Michigan had a score of 7-0 at the break and finished at 14-7. The Badgers managed a mere eight first downs in that game, on only 159 total yards of total offense. Wisconsin did a great job of keeping Michigan to 14 too, considering that the Wolverines entered that game averaging 52 ppg. (The Wolverines would score 78 the next game, too.) While all that may be ancient history, this season's Michigan defense is every bit as talented as the 2016 one, arguably more so. Consider that the 2016 Michigan D returned six starters while this season's defense returned nine and 14 of its top 16 tacklers. A big nationally televised game gives this Michigan defense a chance to show the nation how good it really is. The Badgers have played a few pretty soft defenses and still haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard. They've seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they were listed as underdogs and I expect points to be at a premium, once again.
|10-12-18||Air Force v. San Diego State -10||Top||17-21||Loss||-125||59 h 45 m||Show|
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* PERS FAV). Since losing its opening game to Stanford, San Diego State has been rolling. The Aztecs have now won four straight, most recently beating Boise, on the blue turf, last Saturday. That was a huge win for them and opened the door for a run at a New Year's Day Bowl. They're not going to let a weaker team like Air Force slow their momentum. Indeed, the Aztecs are 9-1 ATS (10-0 SU) their last 10 against sub-500 teams. While the Falcons are off a win over Navy, they'd lost their previous three. Though they, of course, do it differently, the Falcons are a team which runs the ball. Thats noteworthy as the Aztec defense was absolutely dominant against the Boise ground game. The Broncos managed just 51 rushing yards on 36 attempts. The Aztecs also successfully slowed the Falcons ground game (220 yards) in winning last season's game. Including that result, the Falcons are just 4-14 ATS their last 18 in conference play. Expect the short turn-around to work in the Aztecs' favor, as they ultimately pull away for a double-digit win.
|10-06-18||Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 60.5||Top||21-3||Win||100||97 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on Fresno State / Nevada UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Its true that I won with the 'over' in last week's Fresno/Toledo game. However, Nevada is a different style of opponent and that high-scoring result has helped in providing us with a generously high O/U line. The Bulldogs, who have held all four opponents to 27 or fewer points are allowing an average of only 17.5 ppg and 288.5 ppg through their first two road games. Those were opponents from the Pac 12 and Big 10, too. Note that Fresno State has seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 the past six times that it was off back-to-back SU victories. Nevada is off its best defensive performance of the season, holding Air Force to just 250 total yards. Nevada QB Ganji is banged-up (leg) and questionable. Assuming he goes, note that he was intercepted three times by Fresno last season. The Bulldogs' last visit here was in Oct. of 2016. The O/U line was 54 and the teams combined for 49. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|10-06-18||Northwestern v. Michigan State -10||Top||29-19||Loss||-110||65 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). I believe that this is going to prove a tough spot for Northwestern. The Wildcats very nearly upset Michigan last week. However, after leaving it all on the field, they ended up coming up a little short, Michigan winning 20-17. After coming so close to scoring the monumental upset, only to come up short, I expect them to have trouble focusing on the task at hand here. The Spartans are coming in with payback on their minds, after losing last season's meeting in triple-OT and after the Wildcats upset them here the previous season. The Spartans are highly experienced on both sides of the ball and they haven't forgotten those games. Expect a double-digit win.
|10-05-18||Georgia Tech v. Louisville +4.5||Top||66-31||Loss||-110||73 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE (10* BEST BET). The Cardinals' tough (2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS) start has helped in providing us with excellent value. However, lets not forget that the Cards were underdogs for all three of the games that they dropped, so the losses weren't entirely unexpected. The Jackets are also 2-3 and they have yet to win on the road. In fact, including their losses at USF and Pittsburgh, the Jackets are 0-4 SU/ATS the past four times that they were laying points on the road. The Cards are 25-14 ATS the last 39 times that they were off b2b consecutive SU losses.
|09-29-18||Oregon v. California +3.5||Top||42-24||Loss||-115||133 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAL (10* GAME OF YEAR). The Ducks hammered the Bears last season. However, everything sets up for the Bears to get some payback. While the Ducks have indeed won eight of the past nine meetings, the Bears did take the most recent here in Berkeley. You may recall that one, as it was a double-OT (52-49) thriller.
Speaking of "OT games," I won with the Ducks "over" the total in last Saturday's game against Stanford. (Top rated CFB Totals now 5-0 YTD.) Not only did the game finish comfortably above the total, it served another purpose. It helped knock the wind out of the Ducks. If you only watched the first portion of that game, you would have seen an Oregon team which was dominating. Announcers were proclaiming that "this was a new breed of Duck," one that was now pushing around Stanford, instead of being pushed. In the end, however, the Cardinal still finished on top, a 38-31 comeback OT win. (In case, you missed it, the Ducks were up 24-7. Stanford recovered a fumble with 52 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter to allow for the tying FG to force OT.)
Thats the type of result that can and will take a toll on a team. The Ducks had indeed been playing great and they left it all on the field. Stanford was a team which had crushed them twice in a row and they were so close to settling the score. To get that close, only to come up short, is tough to recover from. Thats particularly true given that the Ducks were thinking "undefeated season" if they could beat Stanford too. Broken dreams are most difficult to overcome when so close to actually happening.
Cal, meanwhile, checks in off a bye week. While the Ducks were involved in a tough physical OT loss, the Bears were resting, watching and game-planning. Not only are they fresh, but they're going to come in confident. The Bears began the season by beating UNC by seven. Next, they went on the road and won at BYU. Thats no small feat when considering that BYU is now 3-1, including road wins at Arizona and Wisconsin.
This is an experienced Cal team, too; the Bears brought back 18 starters from last season. They've been tough at home in recent seasons and they fully understand the magnitude of this game and the opportunity which is in front of them. The Ducks have struggled on the road in recent seasons and are just 1-4 ATS their last five as a road favorite. I feel the devastating Stanford loss is going to have a big effect and I'm grabbing the points.
|09-29-18||Toledo v. Fresno State OVER 59.5||Top||27-49||Win||100||98 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on Toledo/Fresno State OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). These teams combined for 69 points the last time that they met and I won't be surprised if they exceed that on Saturday night. These teams are both likely to put up a big number. Toledo was the first team in NCAA history to bring back three receivers which had caught at least 10 TD passes, in a season, at some point in their career. The Rockets scored 66 in their opener and 63 last week against Nevada. Only Miami kept them below 60 (49-24) and that game still produced 73 combined points. Overall, Toledo games are averaging 83 points. Fresno, meanwhile, also has an excellent group of wide receivers, arguably the best in the Mountain West. The Bulldogs scored 79 points in their lone home game. In games which had an O/U number, the Bulldogs have seen the OVER go 40-20 in September over the years. Expect those stats to improve here.
|09-22-18||Stanford v. Oregon OVER 55.5||Top||38-31||Win||100||32 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing Stanford/Oregon OVER the total. The Ducks had trouble scoring at Stanford in last season's meeting. That game had 35 points at halftime but finished with only 56. However, in the most recent meeting here at Oregon, both teams were able to put up points. In fact, that game had an O/U line in the high 50s but finished with 79 combined points. I expect both teams to put up a fairly big number again Saturday evening. The Ducks have scored 58, 62 and 35 points, an average of 51.7 ppg (503 ypg). The Cardinal, meanwhile, have scored 30 or more in two of their three games. Including the 79-point affair here in 2016, the OVER is 11-5 the Ducks' last 16 home games. Expect those stats to improve Saturday night.
|09-20-18||Tulsa v. Temple -6.5||Top||17-31||Win||100||97 h 45 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* MAIN EVENT). After a horrible start, the Owls got back on track in a big way last time out, going on the road and blowing out Maryland. That'll give them confidence here. Tulsa, on the other hand, has gone the opposite direction, losing its last two. Keep in mind that the Golden Hurricane were only 2-10 last season. While I do believe that they're improved, they haven't improved enough. Temple pulls away for a double-digit win.
|09-15-18||Arizona State v. San Diego State +6||Top||21-28||Win||100||36 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* BEST BET). We're getting excellent value with the Aztecs for a number of reasons. A few of those reasons include: 1. The Sun Devils are 2-0 and off an upset of Michigan State causing bettors to jump on the bandwagon. 2. The Sun Devils are playing with 'revenge' from last year, an angle the betting public typically favors. 3. The Aztecs are without their starting QB. None of those reasons are enough to cause me to believe Arizona State can even win this game, let alone cover a pointspread which has continued to get bigger since its opener. The revenge angle can sometimes be a motivating factor but its not going to come into play for a team celebrating last week's upset and looking ahead to conference play, which I feel makes them ripe for an upset. The Aztecs dominated last year's game on the ground, so the loss of Chapman isn't a huge concern. In fact, they weren't really playing that well with Chapman in the game last week and only pulled away after he went down. Agnew got some much needed game-experience, going 11-for-17. While the Aztecs have won 11 of 14 here, ASU, which was 3-8 on the road the past two seasons, is just 1-4 ATS the past five times it was off two or more consecutive victories. I'm grabbing the points.
|09-15-18||Florida State -3 v. Syracuse||Top||7-30||Loss||-130||118 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on FSU (10* ACC GAME OF YEAR). Off their opening loss against V-Tech, the Noles came out flat against an inferior opponent last week, winning but not covering. They'll be fully "recovered" now though and I expect them to take out their frustrations on the Orange. The Noles have long thrived as small road favorites and they've dominated Syracuse for years. They won 45-14 last time here, while laying -23 points. The Orange have indeed improved, but not by enough. Expect another win and cover for the determined visitors.
|09-08-18||Rice +17.5 v. Hawaii||Top||29-43||Win||100||76 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on RICE (10* BEST BET). This line is far too big, in my opinion. Its an over-reaction to last week's results. Hawaii won big while Rice was blown out. However, a closer look reveals that the Owls won their first game and though they lost big, they still covered. Hawaii does deserve some credit for its 2-0 start. However, now the inexperienced Warriors go from being the big underdog to being the big favorite, a role they're unfamiliar with. Expect the Owls to give them all they can handle.
|09-08-18||Air Force v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 69||Top||27-33||Win||100||72 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on Air Force / FAU UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). I feel that this O/U number, which has risen from its opener, will prove to be too higher. While the opponent was obviously pretty weak, the Falcons are off a shutout win in their opener. They held Stony Brook to a mere 30 yards rushing and only 45 yards passing. The Seawolves would finish with just four first downs. Needless to say, it was among the best defensive performances ever by the Falcons and should give them plenty of confidence entering Saturday's game. FAU didn't fare so well defensively, getting lit up by Oklahoma. However, that effort notwithstanding, this IS a very experienced defense and we can expect a MUCH better performance this week. The UNDER is 8-6 in FAU home games the past couple of seasons. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon.
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55.5||Top||24-3||Win||100||81 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing on V-Tech/FSU UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Its true that both these teams are hoping and expecting to have improved offenses this season. However, that improvement isn't likely to be immediate and there's always plenty of athleticism and talent on the defensive side from both these teams. The Noles allowed just 15 ppg (280 ypg) their final three last season and 20.3 ppg at home on the season. The Hokies, meanwhile, allowed a mere 14.8 ppg on the season, 14.7 their final three. The UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons, when the Hokies were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, six of their 10 road games finishing below the total. As for the Noles, the UNDER is 10-5-1 their last 16 conference games. Overall, VT games averaged 43 points last season while FSU games averaged 49. All things considered, this number, which has climbed from its opener, is generously high.
|09-02-18||Miami-FL -3 v. LSU||Top||17-33||Loss||-109||26 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). The "neutral site" venue is AT&T Stadium which gives the Tigers a slight home field edge, due to crowd support. However, it won't be enough to overcome the advantages which the Hurricanes have working in their favor. The Canes are experienced on both sides of the ball and represent Richt's best team since coming here. The Tigers suffered pretty heavy losses on both sides of the ball. They're learning a new offense after losing last season's QB, top two RB's and top two WR's. Expect more experienced Miami to pull away for a win and cover.
|09-01-18||BYU +11 v. Arizona||Top||28-23||Win||100||15 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on BYU (10* BEST BET). We're getting plenty of points with what I feel is an under-valued and extremely motivated Cougar team. BYU brings back plenty of starters on both sides of the ball and is determined to get rid of the bad taste from last year. While beating Arizona isn't going to be easy, the Wildcats do have a new coach. Sumlin brings an impressive record with him and he's admittedly got plenty work with. success isn't always immediate and I have expect him to have his hands full here. I especially like the matchup of the experience BYU defensive line vs. the inexperienced Arizona offensive line. The Cougars have long had success in season openers and I expect them to give their hosts all they can handle.
|09-01-18||Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 46.5||Top||17-24||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on Michigan/ND UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). While this should be an entertaining game, I don't expect there to be a whole lot of scoring. The Wolverines are loaded on defense and should be among the best in the nation on that side of the ball. They allowed 18.8 ppg and 281 ypg last year and this year's unit is far more experienced, bringing back 14 of their top 16 tacklers. Likewise, this should be the best Notre Dame defense that we've seen in several years, the Irish bringing back nine defensive starters. The Irish have seen the UNDER go 4-2 the past couple of seasons when the line ranged from -3 to +3. Look for points to be at a premium.
|08-31-18||Western Kentucky v. Wisconsin -34||Top||3-34||Loss||-110||1091 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing on WISCONSIN (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Badgers have won their last 22 opening season Camp Randall games. Those victories have come by an average of 26 points. This season's opener figures to be even more lopsided. At first glance, this might seem like a big number to be laying against a WKU team which was a combined 23-5 in 2015/16. However, the Hilltoppers took a step back last year and this season is likely going to be even tougher. Certainly, it won't start as well. (Last season, the Hilltoppers were -36 point favorites in their opener against Eastern Kentucky. They won by 14.) The Badgers are off a dominant season and return nine starters on offense. They're not going to be stopped, nor will they let up. The Hilltoppers, who return only three starters on offense, aren't equipped to trade punches, or to try and catch up. The Badgers are thinking National Title this season. Expect them to make a statement, kicking things off by destroying their inferior opponent.
|08-31-18||Utah State v. Michigan State OVER 50.5||Top||31-38||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on Utah State / Michigan State OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). I believe this number will prove to be too low. This is the best offense that Matt Wells has had in his six years here at Utah State, as they are loaded with experience on that side of the ball. Keep in mind that the Aggies averaged better than 30 ppg (30.3) on the road last season. The problem was that they allowed even more than that. Not surprisingly, eight of their past 12 road games have finished above the number. While the Spartans offense wasn't exactly intimidating last season, this is a great opportunity for them to start the season by padding their offensive stats. Expect the final combined score to finish above the low number.
|08-30-18||New Mexico State v. Minnesota OVER 46.5||Top||10-48||Win||100||11 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on New Mexico State / Minnesota to finish OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Admittedly, the Aggies offense didn't look too impressive against Wyoming. However, having a game under their belts will help and I expect them to move the ball more effectively. Stopping the Gophers, who are favored by more than 3 TDs for good reason, is an entirely different matter. The Aggies have seen the OVER go 10-4 on the road the past couple of seasons, as they rarely stop anyone, when playing away from home. Indeed, they allowed an average of 478.2 ypg on the road last season, well over six yards per play. Expect Minnesota to put up a big number and for New Mexico State to supply the rest, as this one finishes above the low number!
|01-08-18||Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 46||Top||26-23||Loss||-105||156 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on Alabama/Georgia to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). You probably watched Georgia trade punches with Oklahoma on New Year's Day. The teams combined for a whopping 102 points. I don't expect to see even half that many on Monday. The Tide were absolutely dominant defensively against Clemson. In the two previous meetings, the Tigers had moved the ball with ease. Not against this year's team. In addition to having a dominant defense which is peaking at the right time, the Tide are a little more conservative on offense than they've been in the past. Georgia's defense, which ultimated stopped the Sooners when it needed to, held its previous three opponents to just 7, 7 and 13 points. In fact, the Bulldogs allowed 14 or fewer points 10 times this season. Look for points to at a premium.
|01-01-18||Alabama v. Clemson||Top||24-6||Win||100||680 h 13 m||Show|
10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR I'm playing on Alabama. I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. Last season, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' For Round 3, I'm backing the Crimson Tide.
Needless to say, both teams had great seasons. Each had only one loss. For Clemson, that setback came back in mid-October, a shocking upset loss against Syracuse. (The Orange were the worst team in the ACC's Coastal Division this season.) Sure, Clemson lost its QB to injury in that game. However, does anyone really think Alabama would have ever lost to Cuse, regardless of who was behind center?
As you're probably aware, Alabama's loss came much later in the season, as the Tide were defeated by Auburn in their last game. While they may be fortunate to be here at all, based on that loss, I fully expect the Tide to respond with their very best effort.
Both teams have outstanding defenses. However, I believe that the Tide are better on that side of the ball. They allowed an average of only 11.5 points on the season, a paltry 257.8 yards. Clemson's numbers were close but a little higher. The Tigers allowed 12.8 ppg and 277.9 ypg. On the road, the Tigers allowed 354.5 ypg. Meanwhile, the Tide allowed just 274.8 ypg on the road. The Tide also have an advantage on yards allowed per play.
While the perception may be that Clemson is superior on offense, the numbers don't back that up. The Tigers averaged a healthy 35.4 ppg and 448.4 ypg. However, the Tide beat them in both areas. Alabama averaged 39.1 and 465.4.
One of the reasons Alabama lost the game in the Iron Bowl was because of poor health. However, the extended break has given the Tide a chance to recover and they'll be much healthier than they were for Auburn.
The Tigers are admittedly tough to run against. However, they haven't faced a ground game like this one. I expect the Tide - and their 3-headed rushing attack - to have success on the ground.
After last year's loss and after failing to cover in both games against Clemson, Nick Saban, who took some heat for not speaking out on Roy Moore, has lost a little of his 'unbeatable' image. Don't buy into that. He's still an amazing coach and he'll have his team ready to go. Expect him to have the last laugh, the Tide taking the 'tiebreaker.'
|01-01-18||Alabama v. Clemson UNDER 47||Top||24-6||Win||100||341 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on Alabama and Clemson to finish UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. Last season, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' For Round 3, I'm switching things up and going with the 'under.'
One of the biggest differences from last season is that Alabama now employs a more conservative offense.
Both teams have outstanding defenses. The Tide allowed an average of only 11.5 points on the season, a paltry 257.8 yards. Clemson's numbers were very nearly as good. The Tigers allowed just 12.8 ppg and 277.9 ypg.
Given those impressive defensive stats, its not surprising that both teams have seen the majority of their games fall below the number. The Tide have seen the UNDER go 7-5 on the season, 3-1 against non-conf. opponents. The UNDER was even more profitable for the Tigers. Nine of Clemson's 13 games stayed beneath the total. That includes a 5-1 UNDER record when they were matched up against a team with a winning record.
While we have to go back a number of years, Clemson has seen the UNDER go a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that it played a neutral site game where the O/U line ranged from 45.5 to 49. That includes their last game, where the Tigers' defense dominated Miami and allowed just three points. Expect those stats to improve on New Year's Day.
|12-30-17||Washington v. Penn State -2.5||Top||28-35||Win||100||627 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on Penn State. The Nittany Lions come in on a roll and full of confidence. They won each of their final three games by double-digits, including a 66-3 dismantling of Maryland in their most recent game. Including that laugher, the Lions are now a lucrative 16-4 SU/ATS when off two or more consecutive SU victories. During the same span, the Huskies, who closed the season with b2b wins, are just 8-10 ATS two or more consecutive SU victories. With Penn State listed as a small favorite, its worth noting that Washington is 0-4 SU/ATS the last four times that it played a game where the line ranged from -3 to +3. The Huskies have indeed been excellent against the run. However, they haven't seen a back like Saquon Barkley, who averaged 179.5 all purpose yards per game. Look for the Lions to find a way to get Barkley the ball in space, ultimately pulling away for the win and cover.
|12-29-17||USC +7 v. Ohio State||Top||7-24||Loss||-120||609 h 39 m||Show|
10* COTTON BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH. I’m playing on USC. Its true that I won with Ohio State in its last game, 27-21 win over Wisconsin, a game they won by six points. However, I feel that the Buckeyes are over-rated for this one and I expect USC to come in as the 'hungrier' and more focused team. While this is still a "big" bowl game, its definitely not what the Buckeyes were hoping for. With only one loss on their resume, the Buckeyes felt that they should have earned one of four spots in the College Football Playoff. As you know, that didnt happen. As much as they'd like to show everyone that they deserved to be there, I believe the sting of not being chosen is going to take a lot of them. USC, on the other hand, should be happier to be here. While the Buckeyes are admittedly tough on both sides of the ball, I expect the Trojans front seven to cause all sorts of problems. Off five straight wins, the Trojans come in full of confidence. While OSU saw only one game decided by less than six points this season, the Trojans saw five games decided by five or fewer points this season, winning four of those. I expect that "close game" experience to serve them well, as they take this game down to the wire with a great shot at the upset.
|12-28-17||Stanford v. TCU -3||Top||37-39||Loss||-109||24 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on TCU (10* MAIN EVENT). While I respect both coaches and both programs, I like the fact that TCU is playing in its home state. I also believe that the Frogs match up well against the Cardinal. While Stanford has an outstanding running game, one of the Frogs' biggest strengths is their ability to defend the run. Indeed, they ranked #4 in the entire country, in terms of rushing defense. The Frogs are 9-2 SU their last 11 non-conf. games and 7-2 SU their last nine, when off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way.
|12-27-17||Boston College v. Iowa -2.5||Top||20-27||Win||100||10 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on IOWA (10* ANNIHILATOR). While the Eagles were a profitable team this season, they're not getting many points here and I feel that they'll ultimately be over-matched. BC averaged 26.2 points on offense, Iowa averaged 28.3. While BC allowed 22.5 ppg, Iowa allowed 19.5. The Eagles are just 2-3-2 ATS (2-5 SU) their past seven, when the line ranged from +3 to -3. During the same span, the Hawkeyes were 4-2-1 ATS, in the same situation. A 56-14 win at Lincoln, on the Huskers' Senior Day, to close out the season showed how explosive that the Hawkeyes can be and has them full of confidence. I expect them to cover this small number.
|12-26-17||Kansas State v. UCLA +7||Top||35-17||Loss||-130||13 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). Having won four of five, the Wildcats come in with a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, Bruins' QB Rosen is currently listed as doubtful while the coaching staff is in transition. That has many expecting a big win for the Wildcats. That sentiment, in turn, has created a generously big pointspread. I'm not expecting the Bruins to just roll over and I feel that they're offering excellent value. K-State's last three games were all decided by five or fewer points. Its last four were decided by seven or less. UCLA's last three games were decided by seven or fewer points and its last two were decided by five or less. The Cats were just 2-4 ATS when favored and they're only 5-11-1 ATS in that role the past few seasons. I'm grabbing the points.
|12-23-17||Appalachian State v. Toledo -6||Top||34-0||Loss||-110||8 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on TOLEDO (10* MAIN EVENT). The line came down a little from its opener providing us with value on the favorite. The Mountaineers put up a big number in their last game but I expect them to have trouble keeping up this evening. Toledo scored better than 39 ppg on the road this season. Appalachian State, meanwhile, managed just 26 ppg on the road. Rockets, who have scored nearly 150 combined points their past three, pull away for the double-digit win.
|12-22-17||Central Michigan v. Wyoming -3||Top||14-37||Win||100||46 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on WYOMING (10* GAME OF WEEK). On Wednesday, Wyoming coach Craig Bohl confirmed that his star QB, Josh Allen would start the Potato Bowl: "Josh and I had a long talk, and Josh is ready to play and start in this football game. He's had several great practices, and so he's in position to be 100 percent." Thats the good news that I'd been waiting for. Allen's a big time talent and he makes the Cowboys a far better team. On defense, led by Andrew Wingard the Cowboys are outstanding. They allowed just 17.8 ppg. While CMU finished the season on an impressive run, I look for the time off to favor what I feel is an under-rated Wyoming team. The fact that Wyoming played here on the Blue Turf (lost but covered) two months ago, should also work in its favor. Cowboys roll.
|12-16-17||Oregon v. Boise State +7.5||Top||28-38||Win||100||26 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on BOISE (10* MAIN EVENT). I won with the Ducks in their last game, a 69-10 thrashing of Oregon State in the "Civil War." So, I'm well aware that the Ducks enter the Bowls on a roll. Its important not to over-react from that blowout. First, Oregon State was terrible this season. Second, that was only game. Even factoring in the result, the Ducks have still lost four of their last seven. The Broncos eked out a win in their last game and have now won eight of their past nine. Boise did lose by three points at Washington State earlier in the season. However, that same Washington State team hammered the Ducks by a score of 33-10. Plus, the Broncos had to face the Cougars on the road while the Ducks got to host them. With the Broncos a profitable 26-14-1 ATS their last 41 as underdogs, I'm grabbing the points.
|12-09-17||Army v. Navy OVER 47.5||Top||14-13||Loss||-100||126 h 36 m||Show|
10* TOTAL MAIN EVENT over Army/Navy. Army comes in off a 52-49 loss to North Texas, while Navy fell 24-14 to Houston in its latest action. These are two teams looking to get back into the winners circle this weekend. Army broke a 14-game losing streak in the series with a 21-17 victory last year and it’ll be looking to add another win onto its already impressive 8-3 record this season. The Midshipmen will be bowling at 6-5, but they clearly can’t be happy with their record overall. The Black Knights are a good defensive team, but last week the unit gave up season high’s in points (52) and total yards (489.) QB Ahmad Bradshaw had 244 rushing yards and two TD’s in the loss. Navy though has in fact lost two straight. In the loss to Houston, QB Zach Abey was just 2 of 4 for 45 yards. Like Bradshaw though, Abey runs the ball, posting 1,322 rushing yards and 14 rushing TD’s this season. Navy’s weak point this year has been its defense, especially against the run. Which clearly doesn’t bode well facing Bradshaw and Army’s run heavy offense. These teams have something to prove and I expect that to result in a higher-scoring affair once it’s all said and done. Play the over.
|12-02-17||Memphis v. Central Florida -7||Top||55-62||Push||0||118 h 14 m||Show|
10* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Central Florida. Memphis went 7-1 in AAC play, while UCF comes in at 12-0 overall, including 8-0 in league play. When these teams met in late September, it was UCF that flattened Memphis 40-13. The Tigers rebounded to win seven straight behind QB Riley Ferguson, who threw for 3,500 yards and had a 32:8 TD:INT this season. The Tigers roll into town averaging 47 PPG, but allowing an average of 453 YPG, which ranks the team 112th in the nation. UCF averages 48.3 PPG, but allows just 399 YPG (including just 72 rushing yards per contest.) Keep your eyes on UCF QB McKenzie Milton, who finished with 3,301 passing yards and a 30:6 TD:INT. The Memphis offense was awesome this season, but the defense leaves something to be desired. UCF destroyed Memphis earlier in the year and I think all signs point to a similar destruction this afternoon. Lay the points, UCF rolls.
|12-01-17||Stanford v. USC -3||Top||28-31||Push||0||103 h 13 m||Show|
10* MAIN EVENT on USC. Stanford was 7-2 in league play and posted a 38-20 win over Notre Dame last Saturday. USC was 8-1 in conference action and most recently held on for a 28-23 victory over UCLA last weekend. When these teams played in early September, it was the Trojans which smashed the Cardinal 42-24. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Stanford has been strong defensively this year overall, allowing just 20 PPG. However, when these teams met in September, USC piled up 623 yards of offense. The Trojans allow just 26 PPG, while posting 489 per contest of their own. USC QB Sam Darnold threw for four TD’s in the victory over the Cardinal in the first matchup this season and I have a hard time seeing Stanford fairing much better this time around either. Lay the points, Trojans roll.
|11-25-17||BYU -2.5 v. Hawaii||Top||30-20||Win||100||147 h 12 m||Show|
10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on BYU. Both teams have just three wins to their names. BYU comes in off a 16-10 loss to UMass, amassing just 299 total yards. Cougars’ QB Joe Critchlow was 21 of 45 for 257 yards, one TD and four picks. The Warriors can empahtize, as they come into the final game of the year on a four game slide, most recently falling 38-0 at Utah as a ten point dog. In that game Hawaii was outgained 475 to 318. Both teams have more questions than answers as we close the 2017/18 campaign, but note that BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road fav of three points or less, while Hawaii is a miserable 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home dog of three points or less. Hawaii’s pass defense has been atrocious and I like Critchlow to take advantage. Lay the points, BYU rolls.
|11-23-17||Ole Miss +14 v. Mississippi State||Top||31-28||Win||100||98 h 27 m||Show|
10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Mississippi. Ole Miss needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Or, that in fact would be the case if it had not put a self-imposed bowl ban on itself before the season started. Despite that fact though, I look for Ole Miss to push for that sixth victory today. The Runnin Rebels failed to accomplish that in last week’s 31-24 setback to Texas A&M. I’m not calling for the outright upset here, but clearly Mississippi won’t be lacking for motivation today. The Rebels also play with revenge after Mississippi State crushed them 55-20 last season. The Ole Miss defense looked decent last week, giving up just 396 total yards. Its passing offense, led by Jordan Ta-amu, is ranked seventh in the nation. The Bulldogs needed to score 14 unanswered points in the final four minutes to beat Arkansas 28-21 last week. Mississippi State’s defense remains a strength and is a big reason why the team will be playing in a bowl in December. But as mentioned above though, the Rebels won’t be going down without a fight today in their final game of the year. Ole Miss enters averaging 335 passing YPG and I think Ta’amu will keep his team in this one late. Grab the points.
|11-21-17||Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 60||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||27 h 14 m||Show|
10* TOP MAC TOTAL on the under Bowling Green/Eastern Michigan. Neither team will be playing in a bowl this year. Bowling Green is 2-9 and EMU is 4-7. The Falcons most recently were smashed 66-37 by Toledo last week, while the Eagles managed a 27-24 road victory over Miami Ohio. Bowling Green is averaging just 24.8 PPG this year. The Falcons looked horrible defensively against Toledo, giving up a season high 637 total yards. But with that disaster behind it, I think Bowling Green will look a lot better in the finale against this somewhat disinterested Eastern Michigan side. The EMU defense played well in last week’s win, holding the Redhawks to 392 total yards, including 141 rushing. The one bright spot for the Eagles this year has been their defensive play. I definitely think the conditions are right for a lower-scoring under as these two teams end their campaigns with a whimper.
|11-18-17||Texas A&M v. Ole Miss UNDER 69.5||Top||31-24||Win||100||123 h 47 m||Show|
10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the under Texas A&M/Mississippi. The Aggies finally posted their sixth win of the year in last week’s 55-14 destruction of New Mexico. Now Texas A&M can afford to take the foot off the gas, with two tough road games to end the campaign, in Mississippi this weekend and then finishing up the season at LSU. And for Ole Miss, it still needs one more win to become bowl eligible, as it’s won back-to-back games to keep its hopes alive. The Runnin’ Rebels beat Kansas 37-34, before then hammering Louisiana Lafayette 50-22. Ole Miss won’t be able to turn this one into a “track meet” with A&M though and expect to come out on the winning side. Ultimately I believe that A&M comes in flat-footed after becoming bowl eligible, while I believe that Mississippi’s game-plan will be to try and wear down the Aggies and take control from the get-go. It’s a perfect set of situational factors which all point to the under as the correct call.
|11-17-17||Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky +3.5||Top||38-41||Win||100||120 h 16 m||Show|
10* CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers need one more win to become bowl eligible and they’ll be risking life and limb today as they try to achieve that, while also snapping an untimely three-game slide. MTSU also needs one more win to become eligible, but it comes in on the other end of the mental spectrum, having won two straight, most recently 35-21 victory at Charlotte. With a much more “winnable” game at home against ODU to finish the campaign, the Blue Raiders could be caught looking ahead and have a letdown here. Last week WKU QB White looked sharp, finishing 28 of 41 for 334 yards, three TD’s and a pick. I look for White to build off that performance and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points as I look for the desperate home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.
|11-16-17||Buffalo v. Ball State +17.5||Top||40-24||Win||100||95 h 28 m||Show|
10* THURSDAY ROAST on Ball State. Buffalo will need to win two straight to become bowl eligible. A game at lowly Ball State is just what the doctor ordered in Game 1. However, with a road game at league-leading Ohio next weekend, I think the Bulls are going to stumble here as they caught looking ahead. I’m not calling for the outright upset or anything, but 2-8 Ball State will look to play spoiler and notch another victory in front of the home town crowd. On paper, clearly the Bulls are the better team. However, there’s no question that the overall situation favors the underdog here (the Bulls are 1-2 ATS in their last three as a road fav.) Grab as many points as you can and expect a competitive affair. Play on Ball State.
|11-15-17||Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -3||Top||27-24||Loss||-115||72 h 58 m||Show|
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Miami Ohio. Miami Ohio needs to win its final two games of the year to become bowl eligible. With this game against 3-7 Eastern Michigan and 2-8 Ball State to close the campaign, the odds are actually in the Redhawks favor. But one thing at a time, up first are the Eagles. EMU has nothing to play for other than spoiler, as it lost for the seventh time in eight games in a 42-30 setback at CMU last Wednesday. The Redhawks come in on the other end of the spectrum, surging towards the finish line after winning for the second time in the last three games in a 24-14 home victory over Akron last Tuesday. Miami Ohio has domianted this series as well, winning nine straight, including a 28-15 road victory last October 29th. The Redhawks are the better team and they’re firing on all cylinders. They also won’t be lacking in motivation. Playing spoiler can only motivate a team so much and I simply don’t see that being enough for the Eagles in the end. Lay the points, Redhawks roll.
|11-14-17||Central Michigan v. Kent State +17.5||Top||42-23||Loss||-110||48 h 8 m||Show|
10* ANNIHILATOR on Kent State. Kent State is horrible. It’s 2-8 (lost 48-20 to WMU in its latest action.) The only thing that the Golden Flashes have to play for today is pride. Central Michigan is decent, it’s 6-5. The Chips became bowl eligible in last week’s 42-30 win at EMU last week and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Kent State was blown out by WMU last weekend, but it will look to take advantage of a content Chips’ team and try to score the upset in its final home game of the year (at Akron next week.) I’ll point out, that while the Golden Flashes once again struggled offensively last week, the defense was in fact pretty decent, allowing 389 yards and limiting the Broncos to 3 of 15 on third downs (note that four of WMU’s TD’s were defensive.) Grab as many points as you can as Kent State delivers the solid cover with this ample spread.
|11-11-17||Michigan State v. Ohio State UNDER 54.5||Top||3-48||Win||100||117 h 14 m||Show|
10* FOX-TV SUPER TOTAL on under Michigan State/Ohio State. Two 7-2 Big Ten teams collide on Saturday afternoon and I think that everything points to a classic lower-scoring defensive battle. Michigan State enters off a 27-24 win at home over Penn State, while Ohio State was humbled in a 55-24 setback to Iowa State in its latest action. Note that when these teams played last year, it was Ohio State that held on for the 17-16 victory. Last week MSU’s defense came to play, allowing only ten points over the final three quarters (466 yards total.) The Spartans also made three INT’s. QB Brian Lewerke was 33 of 56 for 400 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Clearly the Buckeyes will be out to atone after giving up 55 points last weekend. Ohio State QB JT Barrett was just 18 of 34 for 208 yards, three TD’s and four INT’s. If Michigan State is going to pull off another upset this weekend, then it’s going to have to bring its “A” game on the defensive side of the ball again. And as noted above, Ohio State will be on a mission today as well defensively. This number is a little high, play the under.
|11-10-17||Washington v. Stanford OVER 49.5||Top||22-30||Win||100||104 h 12 m||Show|
10* TOTAL FIST FIGHT over Washington/Stanford. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs this year. Washington has seen the Over/Under go 3-6 so far, while Stanford has seen it go 3-6 as well. The Cardinal’s five game win streak was snapped to Washington State last weekend, while the Huskies are now 8-1 after back-to-back wins over UCLA and Oregon. The Huskies smashed Oregon 38-3 last weekend, behind great overall play from all three phases, including a punt-return TD from Dante Pettis. The Cardinal only gained 198 total yards of offense in their 24-21 loss at Washington State. QB KJ Costello was just nine of 20 for 105 yards, no TD’s and one INT. I think Costello settles down after getting thrust into the starters role and he’ll be leaning heavily on RB Bryce Love, who will also be looking to bounce back after posting just 69 yards on 16 carries last weekend, in his first game back from injury. I don’t think Stanford can sit back and hope that its defense can pull this one out for it. So with the home side pushing the pace, I expect this one to soar over sooner, rather than later.
|11-09-17||North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -9||Top||34-31||Loss||-115||98 h 45 m||Show|
10* ROAST on Pittsburgh. UNC is 1-8 and has nothing to play for. Playing “spoiler” can only motivate a team so far and I don’t think the Tar Heels are going to muster enough of it to compete with the Panthers, who still seek one last win to become bowl eligible. UNC most recently fell 24-19 to No. 8 Miami last week. Tar Heels’ No. 1 QE Chazz Suratt was injured early and backup Nathan Elliot threw one TD and three picks in his place. The Panthers enter on the other end of the spectrum as they are off a 31-14 victory over Virginia. QB Ben DiNucci had an unspectacular 134 yards, but Pittsburgh looked great defensively and on special teams, as Quadree Anderson returned a 75-yard punt for a TD. The best thing you can say about Tar Heel football this year is that basketball season is just around the corner. I expect UNC to throw in the white towel early in this one. Panthers roll.
|11-08-17||Eastern Michigan v. Central Michigan UNDER 49||Top||30-42||Loss||-115||35 h 33 m||Show|
10* TOTAL ROAST is the under EMU/CMU. Eastern Michigan would have to run the table at a shot at a bowl, while the Chips need just one more victory to become eligible. Eastern Michigan has a tough task ahead of it and it looks set up for a letdown here after its 56-14 win over Ball State last weekend to move it to 1-4 in the MAC. The Chips though are surging towards the finish line, as they’ve won three of their last four, including a come from behind victory over Western Michigan last week. It’s been a tough year for the Eagles, who have lost their last four conference games by a grand total of 12 points. Last week QB Brogan Roback had a big game with 263 yards, three TD’s and no picks, but he’s been inconsistent all year. Just like his team. The Chips outscored the Broncos 21-0 in the fourth quarter last week and I think that defensive momentum gets carried over here. This one has the feeling of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” This number is just a little high, play the under.
|11-07-17||Akron v. Miami-OH -4.5||Top||14-24||Win||100||48 h 17 m||Show|
10* BLOWOUT on Miami Ohio. Akron needs just one more win to become bowl eligible (5-4), but Miami will need to run the table if it has any shot at a bowl berth. The Zips enter off a 21-20 win over Buffalo, while the Redhawks fell to Ohio 45-28 on Halloween. Note that this is a revenge game for Miami Ohio after it lost 35-13 at Akron last year. Akron is averaging just 331.1 YPG and allowing 444.2. The Zips lost one of their leading playmakers in Warren Ball early in October, but have still managed to find ways to win lately. But I think that changes this weekend. The Redhawks average 392.8 YPG and allows 365.9. QB Billy Bhal was 28 of 51 for 350 yards, three TD’s and two picks last week and I think he’ll have his chances today against this suspect Akron secondary. Both teams need a win, however I think the pressure is on Akron here as it gets caught looking ahead to its game against conference leading Ohio at home next week. Lay the points.
|11-04-17||Hawaii +7.5 v. UNLV||Top||23-31||Loss||-115||74 h 22 m||Show|
10* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii. A couple of desperate 3-5 teams from the Mountain West collide on Saturday night. Hawaii has lost five of its last six, most recently falling 28-7 at home to SDSU last Saturday. UNLV looks set for a letdown here though after its 26-16 upset win over Fresno State on the road last Saturday. Hawaii holds the all time series lead 12-10, but UNLV has taken two straight, including a nail-biting 41-38 road win last October. Hawaii was unable to contain SDSU’s Rashaad Penny, who had a huge game last weekend. Overall Hawaii ranks 89th in scoring with 25.1 PPG, while ranked 107th in scoring defense in allowing 34.6. Warriors’ QB Dru Brown has 1,976 passing yards and a 13:7 TD:INT. UNLV averages 30 PPG and allows 33.6. Rebels’ QB Armani Rodgers is a poor 1,063 yards with a 5:4 TD:INT (does have 535 rushing yards and six scores on the ground.) But after last weekend’s big win over the Bulldogs, a victory which snapped Fresno State’s perfect conference mark, I believe UNLV has a predictable letdown here. I also believe that Brown can match pace with Rodgers down the stretch. Grab the points.
|11-03-17||UCLA v. Utah -6.5||Top||17-48||Win||100||55 h 45 m||Show|
10* FIST-FIGHT on Utah. Both teams are struggling and each is desperate to reach the six-win mark, as both sit with a record of 4-4 currently. The Utes opened the season with four straight victories, but they’ve now dropped four in a row, most recently a 41-20 setback to Oregon. UCLA is just 2-4 in its last six, most recently succumbing 44-23 to Washington. In that game, QB Drew Rosen left in the third frame with an injury and he’s doubtful for this one (if he does manage to suit up, clearly he’s not going to be at 100%.) UCLA owns the worst run defense in the league, giving up an enormous 307.1 YPG this year. Last week the Huskies posted 333. UCLA backup QB Devon Modster was serviceable in Rosen’s replacement, but clearly he’s going to have his hands full today if he’s forced into the start. Utah can empahthize. Last week the Utes gave up 347 yards to the Ducks on the ground. Utah QB Tyler Huntley was 25 of 43 for 293 yards, two TD’s, but was sacked four times. Utah has problems in all three phases, but UCLA is in serious trouble now with the injury to Rosen. I think this is the perfect opponent for Huntley and the Utes to get untracked against. Utah rolls.
|11-02-17||Navy v. Temple OVER 54||Top||26-34||Win||100||33 h 8 m||Show|
10* BLUE CHIP on the over Navy/Temple. Perhaps surprisingly, these two teams have struggled to put points on the board at times this year. Navy has seen the O/U go 2-5, while Temple has seen it go 2-6. The Owls though come in off a hard-fought 31-28 OT loss at Army two weeks ago and suffice it to say, I think the team carries that momentum over here as it seeks its sixth win of the season. The Midshipmen also come in off a hard-fought setback, falling 31-21 to UCF on October 21st. Navy ranks as the No. 1 rushing offense in the nation, averaging a whopping 376.1 YPG, while owning the 24th ranked total offense with 470.7 YPG. Defensively though the Mids are a bit of a mess, allowing 410.3 YPG (ranked 84th). QB Zach Abey has 1,142 rushing yards, 606 passing and 13 major scores overall this season. The Owls ranks 93rd in the nation in total yards per game (372.6), while ranked 73rd defensively in conceding 398.2. Temple QB Frank Nutile replaced an injured Logan Marchi in the Army loss and looked superb, going 20 of 29 for 290 yards, one TD and no picks. RB Ryquell Amstead had 151 rushing yards and two TD’s in that one. This one has the feeling of a wide open “shootout” to me and I expect this total to eclipse the number sooner rather than later. Play the over.
|11-01-17||Central Michigan v. Western Michigan OVER 48||Top||35-28||Win||100||26 h 52 m||Show|
10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the “over” CMU/WMU. This is a big game for both teams. CMU is 2-2 in the MAC and 4-4 overall, while WMU is 3-1 in the MAC and 5-3 overall. Both teams are desperate for victories here as we come to the end of the season, of course needing to reach at least a sixth victory to become bowl “eligible.” Both teams also come in rested, as each last played on October 21st. Western Michigan won 20-17 over EMU in OT, while Central Michigan crushed Ball State 56-9. The Chips looked sharp defensively last time out, but that was against the lowly Cardinals. Clearly the unit faces a much stiffer test this week. The Broncos lost starting QB John Wassink in the win over Eastern Michigan early in the game, but freshman Reece Goddard was seviceable in reflief. In the end the Broncos rolled up 422 yards of offense once it was all said and done anyways (it must be noted though that they looked shaky defensively, allowing 459 total yards.) The Broncos scored the 49-10 win on the road at Central Michigan last year and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Play the over.
|10-28-17||San Jose State v. BYU -13||Top||20-41||Win||100||103 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on BYU (10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK). Enough is enough. The Cougars badly need a victory and the Spartans should provide them the perfect opportunity to get one. Since playing a 'neutral' site game (not really!) at the Superdome against LSU, the Cougars' home games have come against Utah, Wisconsin and Boise State. Needless to say, all three of those teams are far stronger than SJ State. The Spartans have lost their four road games by an average score of 47 to 13.7 and they've been outgained in those games by an average of 530.7 yards to 350 yards. The Spartans are just 5-11 ATS (1-15 SU) the past 16 times that they were road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Expect the Cougars to take out their frustrations on Saturday afternoon, bouncing back with a convincing blowout win.