|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-08-19||Calgary v. Winnipeg -7.5||Top||24-26||Loss||-109||59 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on WINNIPEG. The Stamps have continued to play well and win games, despite playing without their starting QB. Now they're up against an angry Winnipeg team which has been better on both sides of the ball than they have. Not only has Winnipeg scored (20) more points than Calgary, the Bombers have also allowed (23) less. The Bombers have lost b2b games but both those were on the road. Now, they're back home where they're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS, outscoring visiting teams by more than 18 ppg. They beat Calgary by eight here last season and they're arguably a better team now. In addition to having homefield advantage, the Bombers also have a major scheduling advantage. They last played on 8/1 at Toronto; the Stamps last played their archrival (Edmonton) on 8/3, which has them working on an extra short week. Bombers bounce back with a statement blowout win.
|07-27-19||Saskatchewan v. BC +3||Top||45-18||Loss||-107||103 h 25 m||Show|
I'm playing on BC. These teams just met at Saskatchewan last week. The Riders pulled away late for the win and cover. With this week's rematch being played at Vancouver, I expect the revenge-minded Lions to get some payback. Admittedly, BC hasn't been very good. That said, the same can pretty much be said for Saskatchewan. I don't feel that the Riders are ready to be laying points on the road. The Lions have won four of the past five against the Riders here, the lone loss came by a field goal. Going back further finds that the Lions have won 11 of their last 15 against the Riders here. The Riders were a bit fortunate last week, as they benefitted with a 100-yard kickoff return. Overall, the Lions had a 468-379 edge in total yards while also enjoying an edge of more than six minutes, in terms of time of possession. Despite coming up short, the Lions got a strong showing from QB Reilly. He finished 31 of 40 (346 yards) overall and completed 14 consecutive passes, at one point. Expect Reilly and co. to build on that effort Saturday. In a case where I expect an outright win, I'll happily grab the points.
|07-20-19||BC +6 v. Saskatchewan||Top||25-38||Loss||-105||4 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on BC. I waited patiently all week for this line to climb and my patience was finally rewarded. Sure, BC looked pretty bad last week. The Riders aren't exactly a dominant team though and the Lions will look much better. Indeed, Saskatchewan is only 1-3 (lone win came against Toronto, a team BC also beat) and is coming off a 37-10 loss to a Calgary team playing without its #1 QB. These teams will meet again at Vancouver next week. The Lions know they don't have much (any) homefield advantage though and that they better take care of business while away from home. Last season's first meeting between these teams was decided by just a field goal. Look for the Lions to give the Riders all they can handle, picking up AT LEAST the cover.
|07-19-19||Ottawa +10.5 v. Winnipeg||Top||1-31||Loss||-125||62 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on OTTAWA. While the Bombers have gotten off to a great start, I expect them to have their hands full this evening. The Redblacks won at Calgary in their lone road game. So, they're fully capable of competing at a difficult venue. Including that upset win, they're a lucrative 16-6 ATS their last 22, when getting points and 14-5 ATS their last 19 road games, overall. Off b2b losses, the first coming at the hands of these same Blue Bombers, Ottawa is going to be extremely hungry. Note that the Redblacks are 6-1 ATS (5-2 SU) their last seven, after having lost consecutive games. Grab the generous points.
|07-13-19||Calgary v. Hamilton -4||Top||23-30||Win||100||13 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on HAMILTON. Enough is enough! To say that the Stampeders have owned the Ti-Cats would be an understatement. The last time that Hamilton beat the Stamps was way back in 2011, in a game at Moncton, New Brunswick. Since that time, Calgary has won 15 straight in the series, including a win in the 2014 Grey Cup. Times have changed, however, and this is the perfect time for the Ti-Cats to finally have their revenge. The Stamps are banged-up and without their starting QB, Bo Levi Mitchell. (Mitchell was the Grey Cup MVP last year and he was also the CFL's Most Outstanding Player.) The Cats are 3-0 their last three at home. In this season's two games here, they're outscoring teams by an average score of 32 to 13.5. Time for some long-awaited PAYBACK!
|07-01-19||Toronto v. Saskatchewan -10||Top||7-32||Win||100||57 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on SASKATCHEWAN. I've always been a believer in not over-reacting to one game. That said, if a team looks really really good, or really really bad, I also don't just completely discount what I've witnessed. In case you missed it, the Argos were atrocious in their opener. Hosting Hamilton, the Argos were awful in all facets of the game and lost 64-14. There were too many problems to expect them all to get resolved over the course of one week. Don't expect the Riders to feel sorry for them. Saskatchewan has been involved in two close games, losing both. Those came on the road though, a 23-17 loss at Hamilton and a 44-41 setback at Ottawa. Playing their home opener and stepping down considerably in class, they're going to be fired up. Not only will the Riders have the advantage of playing at home, in front of a raucous Canada Day crowd, they've also had a couple of extra days of preparation time. Fajardo looked sharp last week and the defense looked good against the Ti-Cats. Look for the Riders, who are 2-0 SU/ATS the last two times they hosted the Argos, to put it all together, pulling away for a double-digit win.
|06-27-19||Edmonton v. Winnipeg -3.5||Top||21-28||Win||100||78 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on WINNIPEG. While both teams are undefeated, I like the home team for a number of reasons. The Eskimos are 2-0 and are playing on a shorter than normal week. The Bombers are 1-0; they had last week off. That figures to benefit them here. Last week was an emotional victory for the Eskimos, as it came against their former QB. A letdown will not surprise. Keep in mind that the Eskimos went through numerous changes in the offseason, overhauling their team. It hasn't caught up with them yet but they also haven't played on the road yet. Now, they'll take on a talented Winnipeg team which is hungry to win its home opener. The Bombers are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games here, winning by a combined score of 91-35. Expect another win and cover on Thursday.
|06-20-19||Saskatchewan +6 v. Ottawa||Top||41-44||Win||100||76 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on SASKATCHEWAN. I successfully played against the Riders last week. However, I really like how this one sets up for them. Off their Week 1 loss, the Riders are going to be hungry to get back on track. In the Week 1 loss, the Riders lost their starting QB (Collaros) early in the game. Hamilton's Simoni Lawrence has since been handed a 2-game suspension. Whether its Fajardo or Harker behind center for this one, they'll have had a normal week's worth of preparation and will be ready to go. Thats more than can be said for Ottawa. The Redblacks are off a comeback revenge win over the defending champs, at Calgary. (You may recall that Calgary beat them in the Grey Cup.) That game at Calgary was on Saturday, making for a short week. Given that short week and what an emotional win Saturday's game was, I believe the Redblacks are ripe for a letdown. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the Riders score the outright upset.
|06-13-19||Saskatchewan v. Hamilton -2.5||Top||17-23||Win||100||70 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on HAMILTON. The Riders have had the edge in this series in recent years. Expect Hamilton to get some payback on Opening Night. While the Ti-Cats should be a team on the rise, don't be surprised if Saskatchewan takes a step back this season. The Ticats bring back QB Masoli along with his top receiving weapons. Thats a good thing. Masoli threw for more than 5200 yards, top in the East. His 28 passing TDs also led the East. The Riders lost both their coach and GM in the offseason. They tried to sign a new QB (Bo Levi Mitchell) but failed to do so. So, they're settling with who they already had, Zach Collaros. On the defensive side, losing defensive end Willie Jefferson is a blow. Ticats start the season with a victory, covering the small number along the way.
|11-25-18||Ottawa v. Calgary -4||Top||16-27||Win||100||125 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on CALGARY. After coming up short each of the past two seasons - against Ottawa (in OT) in 2016 and by three against Toronto last year, the Stamps are on a mission. They've been the class of the league for years (this is their 6th Grey Cup in last 11 years) and are absolutely determined not to come up empty again. Note that they were much bigger favorites in the Grey Cup, each of the past two seasons. I feel that they could easily be bigger favorites here, too. Jonathan Rose getting suspended by the league will make an already difficult task for Ottawa that much tougher. Rose, who had five INT's this season and who has been an all-star each of the past two seasons, was suspended by the league - though he has appealed the decision. Even if he manages to find a way to play, the distraction isn't going to help Ottawa. Either way, it won't matter. While its normally enemy territory, the fact that the game is being played in Edmonton figures to help the Stamps. Enough's enough. Stamps win big.
|11-03-18||Montreal +7.5 v. Hamilton||Top||30-28||Win||100||55 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on MONTREAL (10* GAME OF MONTH). I played on the Als last week and they rewarded me with a 40-10 victory. While their season is over, I expect the Als to want this one more than their hosts. This is the Als' final game of the season and they really want to build off last week's big win and carry some positive momentum - and good feelings - into the offseason. While June Jones may say otherwise, the Ti-Cats, on the other hand, could care less about this game. Already very banged-up and guaranteed of facing BC in the playoffs next week, the Ti-Cats just want to avoid further injury. I'll gladly take all the generous points but I'm expecting an outright upset.
|10-28-18||Toronto v. Montreal||Top||10-40||Win||100||141 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on MONTREAL (10* GAME OF WEEK). As you may be aware, these teams just met at Toronto last week. Playing their home finale, the Argos won that one by four points. With both teams playing out the string, motivation becomes key. The team that wants it more has an excellent chance at victory. Playing at home with revenge from last week and looking to get Manziel a win, I expect the Als to be the team which wants it more. While the "W's" haven't been there, Manziel has been making major strides. You may recall that Toronto QB Franklin got the better of Manziel in 2013 SEC showdown between Missouri and A&M. Its taken five years but Manziel finally gets some payback.
|10-20-18||Montreal v. Toronto -4||22-26||Push||0||10 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO (8* ANNIHILATOR). These teams are playing for pride and to avoid the basement. That said, I believe that the Argos bring a little more to the table and that they're going to be a little 'hungrier.' The Argos know that they're winless on the road this season - they also know that they'll face these same Alouettes, at Montreal, where they're 0-3 SU/ATS their last three visits, next week. In other words, they better take care of business here. The Argos are 6-4 ATS their last 10 off a divisional loss. Note that Toronto is also 3-0 SU/ATS (33-19, 38-6, 30-13) its last three as a host in this series. Playing their home finale, expect a motivated effort from the Argos, en route to another home win and cover over the Als.
|10-13-18||Ottawa v. Edmonton -3.5||Top||16-34||Win||100||75 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on EDMONTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Eskimos cost me last week, a game that they were covering the entire way, until the final couple of minutes. However, that won't prevent me from backing them again here. A look at eight meetings between these teams, here at Edmonton, reveals that the Eskimos were 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. They were favored by an average of eight points in those games. This week's line is a lot lower and I believe thats providing excellent value. Eskimos bounce back.
|10-08-18||Edmonton +4 v. Saskatchewan||Top||12-19||Loss||-107||170 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on EDMONTON. After getting embarrassed (30-3) in their last game, the Eskimos are going to be in an angry mood here. They've had an extra day of rest than the Riders, who squeaked past the Als, at Montreal, the next day. When these teams met in August, at Edmonton, the Eskimos were favored by seven points. (Edmonton won by 7.) While the venue has obviously changed, I don't think that's enough to warrant such a big difference in the line. The Eskimos have won three of their last five visits here outright. Both losses came by seven or less, one by just a field goal. I'm grabbing the points.
|09-28-18||Toronto v. Calgary -13||16-38||Win||100||80 h 12 m||Show|
I'm playing on CALGARY. (8* SPECIAL) The Argos have now dropped four straight, the last coming by a single point. On that type of skid and off that type of demoralizing loss, this is not the place to be coming to visit, on a short week. The Stamps are much better on both sides of the ball. They're off a bye and playing at home. The last meeting between these teams was at Toronto, in June. The Stamps won 41-7. The Stamps have also beaten the Argos four straight here at Calgary, the last two victories each coming by 16 or more. Expect another blowout.
|09-21-18||Montreal v. Winnipeg -10||Top||14-31||Win||100||100 h 41 m||Show|
I'm playing on WINNIPEG (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Als had a little spark but the Lions snuffed that out last week. Now, they turn to Manziel. However, he's in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Bombers are going to be in a foul mood and the Als are the perfect opponent to take it out on. Manziel may come with a big name but he's just 27 of 46 with FOUR interceptions in two CFL starts so far. Expect things to get worse for the former college star, before they get better. Bombers roll.
|09-02-18||Winnipeg +3.5 v. Saskatchewan||Top||23-31||Loss||-110||94 h 12 m||Show|
I'm playing on WINNIPEG (10* GAME OF YEAR). While the Riders have certainly improved over the past several weeks, I still believe that the Bombers are the stronger of these two teams. They've won five of the last six meetings and hammered the Riders by a 48-28 score in the last meeting here. Yes, I did successfully go against Winnipeg last week. However, that was at Calgary, against the best team in the league. The final score was a little misleading too, as Winnipeg led much of the way, giving the Stamps all they can handle. I was impressed with the Bombers' play and felt somewhat fortunate to come away with the win. Off back-to-back losses, they're going to be extremely hungry here. In a game where I expect the underdog to win outright, I'll happily grab the points.
|08-25-18||Winnipeg v. Calgary -9||Top||26-39||Win||100||75 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on CALGARY (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). Both these teams were upset in their last game. I expect the Stamps to be the team which bounces back with a big win. The Stamps, who remain the class of the league, have dominanted the Bombers over the years. Indeed, even with a loss here last November, they've won 17 of the last 19 meetings. Three of Calgary's last four victories against Winnipeg have come by double-digits. Overall, the Stamps have won five straight at home. The last four of those victories came by a minimum of nine points and by an average of 12.5. Expect another double-digit win on Saturday afternoon.
|08-02-18||Saskatchewan v. Edmonton -7||Top||19-26||Push||0||15 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on EDMONTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Eskimos have a lot going for them. In addition to being the superior team and playing at home, they come in with positive momentum and confidence. Their last game was a blowout win over Montreal. Saskatchewan, meanwhile, was humbled by Calgary. Making matters worse for the Riders, they'll be playing on a short week, the Eskimos playing with two more day's worth of rest than them. Expect a blowout.
|07-28-18||Ottawa v. Hamilton -6||Top||21-15||Loss||-108||6 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on HAMILTON (10* ANNIHILATOR). After getting upset by the Riders here last week, the Ti-Cats are going to be in an angry mood. They've had an extra day to get ready for this one, compared to Ottawa, while also allowing their anger to build. Ottawa beat the 'Cats by one here (30-29) two meetings ago and then hammered them (37-18) here last August. (They proceeded to split a pair of games at Ottawa.) Enough's enough. Its payback time. Hamilton rolls.
|07-19-18||Saskatchewan v. Hamilton -10.5||Top||31-20||Loss||-109||76 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing on HAMILTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). While I won with the Riders in the meeting two weeks ago, this is still a team with plenty of problems. Having been upset in that one and having also been swept by the Riders last season, the revenge-minded Ti-Cats are coming in with a score to settle. Playing on their homefield, where they've won their last two games by a combined score of 64-17, they're more than capable of blowing out a Rider team which lost its lone road game by a score of 40-17. Expect a double-digit victory for the home team.
|07-07-18||BC +6 v. Winnipeg||Top||19-41||Loss||-101||12 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on BC (10* GAME OF WEEK). Nine straight meetings between these teams have been decided by 10 or fewer points. The average margin of victory in those games was just 4.67 points. A closer look reveals that only one of those nine games resulted in a Winnipeg victory of greater than six points and that came way back in 2015. While the Bombers have historically struggled when laying points, the Lions have long thrived as road underdogs of this size. In fact, they're a profitable 38-20 ATS the past 58 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range.
|07-05-18||Hamilton v. Saskatchewan +7.5||Top||13-18||Win||100||34 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on SASKATCHEWAN (8* MAIN EVENT). Last week, I stated that the Riders shouldnt be laying double-digits. They lost outright. This week, however, they're getting more than a touchdown at the betting window. Thats a huge swing and I believe that the value has now shifted their way. The Riders are 3-0 the last three meetings with Hamilton and they were home underdogs for two of those. With the Ticats just 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range and just 0-2 ATS the past two seasons, when off two or more consec. victories, I'm grabbing the generous points.
|06-30-18||Montreal +10.5 v. Saskatchewan||Top||23-17||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
I'm taking the points with MONTREAL (10* GAME OF MONTH). I'm well aware that the Als were horrible last year and that they've struggled out of the gate again this year. However, Saskatchewan is a team which they can compete against; they've beaten the Riders three of the last four meetings. This time, they catch a Rider team which will be without its starting QB, as Zach Collaros is down with injury. Brandon Bridge did perform decently in his lone start last season. However, arguably a bigger concern is the Rider offensive line protecting him. We have to go back a number of years but the Riders are just 1-5 ATS their last six as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. Given the QB situation, I don't feel they should be laying double-digits. Expect the Als to give them all they can handle.
|06-16-18||Hamilton v. Calgary -7.5||Top||14-28||Win||100||34 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on CALGARY (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Ti-Cats are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After last year's loss in the Grey Cup, the Stamps are going to be in an angry mood. They've still got loads of talent, more than enough to take out their frustrations on the visiting Cats. With an O/U line in the mid 50s, note that Calgary is a perfect 14-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 52 or greater. The Stamps went a lucrative 11-3 ATS in those games. That includes an 11-2 ATS mark when the line fell in the 52 to 56.5 range. That includes a 60-1 destruction of Hamilton the last time the teams met here. This one isn't likely to get that ugly again but the Stamps will eventually pull away for another double-digit win.
|06-14-18||Edmonton v. Winnipeg +7.5||Top||33-30||Win||100||58 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on WINNIPEG. Its been quite some time since a rookie QB started Week 1 of the CFL season, after coming straight from college. In fact, it hasn't happened since Anthony Calvillo's rookie season, some 24 years ago. (Calvillo would go on to break basically every major CFL passing record: most TD's, most passing yards, most completions etc.) With the Bombers set to start a rookie, the line has climbed from its opener and not many are giving them much of a chance. That doesn't mean that Chris Steveler can't be successful on Thursday night though. Steveler, a finalist for the Walter Payton award, threw for over 6000 yards in college. The 23-year old has excellent speed and he was 10 of 10 in his preseason debut. While the Eskimos are obviously going to present a tough test, Steveler is surrounded with plenty of weapons and is backed by a Winnipeg team which was strong last season. The Bombers beat the Eskimos in both regular season meetings last year before falling by seven points in the playoffs. With revenge on their minds, expect them to give their guests all they can handle again on opening night.
|10-21-17||Edmonton v. BC -1.5||Top||35-29||Loss||-110||14 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on BC (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Lions have been elminated from postseason contention. That doesn't mean that they're going to pack it in though. In fact, playing with "double-revenge" against the hated Eskimos, the pressure now officially off, I expect their very best effort.
BC's Jeremiah Johnson noted: "New team, new week. We have to pull our pants up, tighten up our ties a little more and let it loose. I know we have more than enough guys on this team to finish this thing off 3-0. We're professionals. Any competitor doesn't want to go out with a bad taste in their mouth, whether it's for a playoff spot or different."
While the Lions remain a profitable 7-3 ATS off two or more consecutive losses, the Eskimos are just 9-15 ATS off two or more consecutive wins. Going back further finds them at a money-burning 38-63 ATS in that situation, over the years. Look for the Lions to show some pride and for them to bounce back with a big effort.
|10-13-17||Calgary v. Hamilton +10||Top||28-25||Win||100||26 h 12 m||Show|
I'm playing on HAMILTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Ti-Cats have had this game circled, ever since Calgary beat them by an embarrassing 60-1 margin earlier in the season. That was rock-bottom for Hamilton, the loss dropped them to 0-5. It was the first time the Ti-Cats had started 0-5 since 2007 (when they finished 3-15) and it marked the biggest margin of victory in Calgary's franchise history. The 'Cats are playing much better these days though. They're off a dominating 30-12 victory at Winnipeg, winning as a double-digit underdog. They've now won four of their last six games - note that both the losses came by single-digits. Admittedly, the Stamps are still a very strong team, one which comes in on a roll. That said, they're 0-3 ATS the last three times that they were listed as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range and I expect them to find a very determined Hamilton team waiting for them. Expect AT LEAST a cover from the revenge-minded home underdog.
|10-09-17||Edmonton -7.5 v. Montreal||Top||42-24||Win||100||52 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on EDMONTON (10* GOM). The Eskimos badly need a win and the Als are the perfect opponent for them to get one against. Not only is Montreal really struggling right now, to put it lightly, but the Eskimos have dominated this rivalry for years. True, the Als did play the Eskimos close earlier, Edmonton winning by only four. However, that was before the Als completely fell apart. Two weeks after the 4-point loss at Edmonton, the Als actually won at Calgary. However, they're no longer the same team. Last week, the Stamps came here to Montreal and beat the Als by a score of 59-11. That dropped Montreal to 0-7 SU/ATS its last seven games. Six of those seven losses came by 14 or more points. Facing a much better Montreal team, the Eskimos won by 20 (40-20) the last time they played here. Prior to the earlier non-cover at Edmonton, the Eskimos had been 6-0 SU/ATS their preivous six in the series. Expect them to continue that dominance, another double-digit victory for the visitors.
|08-24-17||Winnipeg v. Montreal +1||Top||34-31||Loss||-110||12 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on MONTREAL (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams met on a Thursday one month ago, at Winnipeg. You may recall that one, as it was one of the wildest games of the season. Even if you don't remember it, the Als certainly haven't forgotten. Thats because Winnipeg stunned them on the final play to win 41-40. Playing at home, the Als should get some payback this evening. Montreal is 3-1 here, limiting visiting teams to a mere 17.7 ppg. While the Bombers have had success on the road, they do allow 31.7 ppg away from Winnipeg. It should also be noted that they're an ugly 2-10 SU/ATS the last 12 times that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points. While the Bombers come in as the hotter team, look for home field and "revenge" to ultimately prove the difference. *GOW
|08-03-17||Calgary v. Toronto +5||41-24||Loss||-110||59 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO 8* MAIN EVENT. I successfully played against the Argos last week. However, I believe they're offering excellent value here. Calgary is obviously a strong team. The Stamps could easily be a little complacent here though, after last weekend's 60-1 destruction of Hamilton. Meanwhile, after dropping their game at Saskatchewan, the Argos should be hungry. Certainly, last week's result have helped to provide some added line value with the home underdog. Though the Stamps have had an extra day, both teams are on a short week. I expect that to favor the home team. While an upset won't surprise, I'm grabbing the generous points.
|07-29-17||Toronto v. Saskatchewan -2.5||Top||27-38||Win||100||92 h 25 m||Show|
10* GAME OF WEEK Saskatchewan Roughriders. Toronto is 3-2, having traded wins and losses so far to open the 2017 campaign, most recently beating Ottawa 27-24. Argos’ veteran QB Ricky Ray has nearly 1,900 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s so far this year. WR SJ Green is another standout with 31 receptions for 518 yards and a TD, but the ground game has so far been a weak point on the offensive side. At 1-3, the Roughriders will clearly be looking for a better performance at home after falling 27-10 to Calgary last time out. Saskatchewan QB Kevin Glenn has been solid this year as well, so far with seven TD’s and four INT’s. WR Naaman Roosevelt has 29 catches for 342 yards and a TD on the year. This has been a spot in which Toronto has struggled in significantly for bettors though, already 0-2 ATS this season off a win against a division rival, it’s also just 1-7 ATS in its last eight in the same position. Conversely, Saskatchewan has already done well in this spot by going 2-0 ATS this year in non-conference games. I like the “hungrier” home side to pull away down the stretch. Play on the Roughriders.
|07-20-17||Edmonton v. Hamilton +3.5||Top||31-28||Win||100||75 h 32 m||Show|
10* GAME OF WEEK Hamilton. I had a big play on Hamilton last week and it jumped out to a decent start, but then fell apart to BC’s high-octane offense down the stretch. It’s essentially “do-or-die” for the Ti-Cats this week though, as despite a long 18-game season, an 0-4 hole out of the gate would likely be just too much for the team to climb out of. Hamilton is desperate at 0-3, while Edmonton comes to town contented at 3-0. Eskimos QB Mike Reilly has posted four TD’s in his last three games. The ground game for the visitors averages just 99.3 YPG though. The Eskimos get the job done on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 22.3 PPG thus far. That means that the pressure is on Ti-Cats QB Zach Collaros to step up with his best performance of the 2017 campaign (so far he has 792 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s.) Hamilton has struggled defensively, but note that the Ti-Cats have excelled in this spot for bettors over the years by going 6-3 ATS in their last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and 5-3 ATS in their last eight as an underdog of three to nine points (conversely, the Eskimos are just 9-11 ATS in their last 20 as a favorite of three to nine points.) All signs point to a letdown for Edmonton. Grab the points.
|07-08-17||Hamilton v. Saskatchewan -1||Top||20-37||Win||100||125 h 19 m||Show|
10* GAME OF WEEK on Saskatchewan Roughriders. Both teams are winless and each will be as equally as hungry for a victory today. However, I think the 0-2 Roughriders will finally find a way to punch one into the win column after back-to-back heart-breaking losses to open the season. QB Kevin Glenn has completed 72 percent of his passes over the first two games for 675 yards, five TD’s and three INT’s. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on the WR combo of Caleb Holley and Nic Demski, who have caught 398 receiving yards and two TD’s. The Roughriders’ have been putting points on the board, but it’s been on the defensive side where the team has lacked, allowing 30 PPG (Sam Williams leads Saskatchewan with 12 tackles so far.) The Ti-Cats had a bye after falling to the Argos in Toronto in Week 1. Unfortunately, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered for Hamilton to get back on track as it’s lost six of its last seven away from friendly confines. QB Zach Collaros had 242 yards, zero TD’s and an INT in the loss to Toronto. Defensively the Ti-Cats allowed 32 points and 545 yards, which doesn’t bode well in facing Glenn and his dynamic receiving unit. Hamilton plays its next two games at home, so the possibility of it getting caught looking ahead becomes a factor here. But more than anything, I think the Roughriders leave everything they have on the field to earn their first victory of the year. Play on Saskatchewan.
|06-29-17||Ottawa v. Calgary -7||Top||39-43||Loss||-110||76 h 49 m||Show|
10* GAME OF MONTH Calgary Stampeders. Calgary finished 15-2-1 last year and lost to Ottawa in the Grey Cup. These teams played to a 31-31 tie in Week 1, but I think the scales will now finally tip in favor of the high-powered Stampeders, who I expect to dominate from start to finish in front of the home town crowd. Ottawa QB Trevor Harris had 300 yards, three TD’s and an INT last week. The Redblacks finished with 116 yards on the ground last week as well. But as mentioned off the top, the Stamps have to be feeling pretty good in this spot as they haven’t lost a home game since October of 2015. QB Bo Levi Mitchell was the “cream of the crop” last year and he finished with 376 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s last week. Marquay McDaniel and DaVaris Daniels combined for 204 receiving yards. Ottawa has struggled in this spot for bettors, just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Calgary is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home fav in the 7.5 to ten points range. Home field advantage can’t be overlooked this week. Neither can the “revenge” angle. All signs point to Calgary finally getting some revenge from last year’s Grey Cup debacle. Lay the points.
|06-25-17||Hamilton v. Toronto +3.5||Top||15-32||Win||100||56 h 3 m||Show|
10* GAME OF WEEK Toronto Argonauts. Hamiton’s hopes once again ride on the arm of QB Zach Collaros who was good (2,900 yards, 18 TD’s) last year, but note great (the TiCats finishd 7-11). Collaros’s favorite target was Luke Tasker, who caught 76 passes for 852 yards. RB CJ Gable rounds out a decent offense. There’s really only one way the Toronto Argonauts can go this year and that’s up. The Argos gave up a league high 568 points last season, prompting the team to focus heavily on revamping its secondary and defensive line. QB Ricky Ray is back under center and he’ll clearly be looking to improve upon his 2,400 yards that he posted in 2016. Ray though has both the track record and pedigree to return to form (he started 2016 injured and was never really able to get a handle on the season after that). Ray will be leaning heavily on talented back Brandon Whitaker, who also dealt with injury issues in 2016. Ray has plenty of raw talent at receiver as well with ex-NFL veterans DeVier Pose and Armanti Edwards. Toronto finally moves into its new home (BMO Field) and I think it’ll be able to ride the wave of emotion to a victory today (or at the very least, a comfortable cover). In a contest which I foresee being decided in the final moments, I’m grabbing the points.
|06-22-17||Saskatchewan +7 v. Montreal||Top||16-17||Win||100||27 h 57 m||Show|
10* MAIN EVENT on Saskatchewan Roughriders. There’s not much to do in Saskatchewan, Canada. The Roughriders are one of the main draws in the City and after going just 5-13 last year, the team will be looking to start things off on the “right foot” in 2017. Sask. has three capbable QB’s which will be competing for the starting job to open the season in Kevin Glenn, Brandon Bridge and Marquise Williams. Whoever wins the job, they’re surrounded by dangerous offensive weapons, including 1,000-yard receiver Naaman Roosevelt and dynamic RB Greg Morris. Montreal fans can empathize with the Roughriders, as their once league-leading team has fallen on hard times of late, finishing just 7-11 last season. Montreal has Darian Durant at QB, last year he threw for more than 3,800 yards for Saskatchewan. The Als also have plenty of offensive weapons, including Nik Lewis, Brandon Rutley and Sam Giguere. Both teams went through some changes on the defensive end, so I’m calling this area a “wash.” I think these offenses are even as well, as each side will have to go through some growing pains to open the campaign. Note though that the Roughriders are 10-7 ATS their last 17 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Montreal is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a fav of 3.5 to 9.5 points. I think this one is going to be decided in the final moments. Grab the points.
|09-24-16||Hamilton v. Saskatchewan +5||Top||18-20||Win||100||12 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on SASKATCHEWAN. This will be the final year that games are played at Mosaic Stadium at Taylor Field, as it will be replaced by a new Mosaic Stadium next year. With the Ti-Cats coming to town, fans will recall the most-important home-field victory in Saskatchewan history, when the Riders hammered Hamilton here to win the Grey Cup, a few years ago. While those fond memories remain strong in Regina, recent memories haven't been nearly as sweet. This year's team has struggled, particularly on the road, where the Riders are 0-6. The worst of those losses came back in August, at Hamilton. In that 8/20 game, the Ti-Cats destroyed the Riders by a 53-7 margin. I don't believe that result sat too well with the Riders' players and coaches. Despite their commanding lead, the Ti-Cats were throwing the ball right up until the end, throwing for the final TD with just over a minute to go. The Riders haven't forgotten and they've been waiting to get some payback here at home, where they play much better. Note that they're 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS their last 21 home meetings with the Ti-Cats. Hamilton isn't as good on the road, going 3-4 SU/ATS and outscoring teams by a 29.1 to 29 margin. The Riders are 3-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I look for them to improve on those stats tonight with an excellent shot at the outright upset.