|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers +7||Top||12-9||Win||100||27 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* MAIN EVENT). Its not often the Panthers find themselves getting points at home, let alone this many of them. Thats the case though - a combination of New Orleans having a strong season and Carolina currently struggling. Lets not forget that the Panthers are 11-6 ATS the past few seasons, when getting points, 3-1 ATS as home underdogs. During that stretch, they're also 8-5 ATS when coming off a road loss. I expect this game to carry a lot of meaning for the Panthers. Division rival, Monday night, looking to snap their skid, looking to prove to the world that they're a much better team than their record indicates. Note that none of the Panthers' last four losses came by more than a touchdown and those four losses came by an average of only four points. Speaking of close games, three of the past five meetings between these teams have been decided by five or less. I'm grabbing the points.
|12-16-18||Seahawks v. 49ers +7||Top||23-26||Win||100||121 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF (10* GAME OF MONTH). I won with the 49ers last week and I'm coming right back with them again here. While Seattle won again last week, it now plays on a short week. Though he had some decent plays with his feet, Wilson had a poor performance and the final score wasn't necessarily all that reflective of the way the game played out. Note that Seattle is just 2-6 ATS its last eight as a road favorite. During that span, the Hawks are also just 3-6 ATS off a double-digit home win and a poor 5-11 ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points. The 49ers, 2-0 ATS as home underdogs of seven or fewer points, will be looking to prove that they're a alot better than the team which got blown out at Seattle a couple of weeks ago. Venue (and schedule) now in their favor, expect a huge effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover Sunday afternoon.
|12-15-18||Browns v. Broncos -3||Top||17-16||Loss||-103||101 h 23 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). While I successfully played against the Broncos last week, they're back home now and I feel that they're providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that this team had previous won and covered three straight. Last week was just a tough spot, as they were playing their second straight on the road. The Broncos' last few home games have come against quality teams like the Steelers, Texans and Rams. While Cleveland is better than it has been in recent years, the Browns have still dropped three of their last four on the road. The last two of those losses both came by double-digits. The Browns will be playing their third road game in the past four weeks and they've got divisional games against the Bengals and Ravens on deck. Expect the Broncos to bounce back and improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were off an upset loss as a road favorite.
|12-15-18||North Texas +9 v. Utah State||Top||13-52||Loss||-105||238 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* MAIN EVENT). The Aggies will say all the right things that they're happy to be here. They're not. They wanted a bigger bowl and this is a disappointment. That type of disappointment makes it difficult to win, let alone cover a big number. The Aggies' task is made that much tougher by the fact that the Mean Green are actually pretty good. In 2015, the Mean Green won only a single game, before hiring current head coach Seth Littrell. That hiring proved to be huge for them, as they've been competitive ever since. This marks their second straight season with nine wins and this is their best team under Littrel. While Littrel was rumord to be heading to K-State, he reportedly withdrew his name from consideration. Meanwhile, Utah State's coach (Matt Wells) has already left for Texas Tech. The Aggie offensive and defensive coordinators joined him, too. Having come up short in bowl games the past two seasons, the Mean Green have something to prove. I believe that this game means more to them and I expect that to lead to AT LEAST a cover.
|12-09-18||Broncos v. 49ers +5.5||Top||14-20||Win||100||96 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Broncos have been all over the place lately. After playing two of three on the road, they got a bye in early November. That was followed by a trip out West (LA) and then back to Denver. Last week, they played at Cincinnati. Now, here they are back on the West Coast. I expect it to catch up with them and feel that they're over-valued. The last time that Denver played the second of b2b road games, it lost by seven. While the defense improved the last couple of weeks, the Broncos are 0-4 ATS their last four, when off b2b games where they allowed 17 or fewer points. During the same span, the 49ers are 5-3 ATS, after failing to score more than 17 in b2b games. The last time that the 49ers were in that situation they won 34-3. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST another cover Sunday afternoon.
|12-09-18||Giants v. Redskins +4||Top||40-16||Loss||-110||121 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. As many of you know, I successfully played against these same Redskins on Monday night, while also cashing with the 'under' in that game. However, that was on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs, who were playing for their season. Now, the Skins are at home, facing a Giants team which is playing out the string. Thats a major difference. Yet, they're still getting a handful of points. Talk about no respect! While the Giants have actually won a few recently, including a win over the Bears last week, none of those wins came by more than four points. They're also just 1-5-1 ATS their last seven off a SU win as an underdog. While I like the Skins to rise to the occasion and win this one outright, I'm happy to grab the points.
|12-02-18||Rams v. Lions +10.5||Top||30-16||Loss||-130||75 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* BEST BET). While I obviously respect the Rams, I feel that they're laying too big a number here. Five of the Rams' last seven games have been decided by five or fewer points, six of those seven decided by 10 or less. Likewise, the Lions have seen each of their last two games decided by seven or less. Expect the Lions to rise to the occasion, giving the Rams all they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset.
|12-01-18||Georgia +13 v. Alabama||Top||28-35||Win||100||25 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on GEORGIA (10* CONF. CHAMP. GAME OF YEAR). As per usual, Alabama had a dominant season. The Tide finished at 12-0. The Bulldogs weren't far off, however, as they finished at 11-1. With this game being played at Atlanta and the Dawgs getting double-digits at the betting window, I believe that we're getting outstanding value. True, Alabama hammered LSU, the team which handed Georgia its lone loss. However, Sometimes a loss can actually help a team. Since the loss to the Tigers, Georgia has emphasized its power-running game, averaging over 300 rushing yards over its past five games. Thats the one spot (run defense) that the Tide may be a little vulnerable, too. (Over the past two weeks, Alabama has allowed more than 400 rushing yards.) Don't be surprised when the Bulldogs shock the world.
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois +3.5 v. Buffalo||Top||30-29||Win||100||77 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on NIU (10* MAIN EVENT). The Bulls have had an excellent season and are clearly an improved team. Improvement was expected, as they brought back 14 returning starters. While 10 wins may not have been expected, their schedule was considerably softer than the one that NIU played. I'm not convinced that they're the real deal. Mixed in with Buffalo's 10 wins were two blowout losses, which I believe are revealing. Army and Ohio were able to beat them by 29 and 35. We're not talking Alabama and Clemson - Army and Ohio. Army couldn't even beat teams like Lafayette and Colgate by nearly that many. Likewise, for Ohio. Favored by more than 4 TD's, the Bobcats only beat Howard by eight. Yet, those teams destroyed Buffalo. On the other side, I don't think the Huskies, who faced the likes of Utah, Iowa and Florida State, are getting enough respect. This is a team with playmakers all over the field. I'll gladly take the points but I expect the Huskies to rise to the occasion and win this one outright.
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +8||Top||10-13||Win||100||34 h 25 m||Show|
I'm playing on DALLAS (10* BEAST). The Saints are obviously playing great football. However, lately, the same can also be said of the Cowboys. They're 3-0 SU/ATS their last three, the first two of those wins coming on the road. Last week, they returned home for their annual Thanksgiving Day game, beating the Redskins. That brings them to 4-1 here on the season, 14-8 the past 2+ seasons. As good as they've been this season, the Saints are still just 11-10 on the road, during the same span. The fact that the Cowboys played on the Thursday gives them a normal week's worth of preparation time - which should serve them well with the Saints coming to town. New Orleans, on the other hand, plays on a short week. Grab the generous points but schedule and venue in their favor, don't be surprised when the Cowboys shock the world with an outright win.
|11-25-18||Packers v. Vikings -3||Top||17-24||Win||100||127 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* NFC NORTH GOY). The Packers desperately need a win to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive. That doesn't mean that they're going to get one though. While many can't imagine the playoffs without Rodgers, they better get used to the idea. The Vikings need this one (nearly) every bit as much as the Packers. While they've got a better record than the Packers, they're still traiing the Bears by two games and they know they can ill afford to lose a divisional home game. The Vikings tied the Pack at Lambeau already and they outscored them 39-10 in sweeping last season's series. Both teams have scored about the same number of points. The Packers average 24.7, the Vikes average 24.1. However, its on the other side of the ball that the Vikes will have the edge. The Packers allow 29.8 points and 375.4 yards per road game. The Vikings, on the other hand, allow 19.8 ppg and a mere 273.4 yards per game at home. They're 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. Expect their superior defense to lead to them improving on those stats Sunday night.
|11-25-18||Giants v. Eagles -5||Top||22-25||Loss||-109||28 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Eagles badly need a win and a visit from the Giants figures to be just what the doctor ordered. With a 34-13 win in October, the Eagles have now beaten Eli and co. four straight times. Though they certainly didn't look too good against the Saints, in my opinion, the Eagles still have a far superior defense to the Giants. They allow less than 20 ppg here while NY allows more than 24 ppg on the road. Embarrassed last week, expect the champs to play with a chip on their shoulder, bouncing back and improving to 6-2 ATS the past eight times that they were off two or more consecutive victories.
|11-24-18||Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -4||Top||3-24||Win||100||79 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* ANNIHILATOR). Playing at Pittsburgh, on this very day exactly one year ago, the Panthers upset the Hurricanes last season. However, when the teams last met in Miami, the Canes, who were favored by four points, hammered the Panthers by a 51-28 score. Back at Miami, I expect the Canes to have the advantage once again. While the Panthers are 2-3 away from Pittsburgh, the Canes are 4-1 at Miami. Pitt. has been outscored 25.6 to 24 on the road. Miami has outscored teams by a 39 to 14.8 margin here at home. Visiting teams are averaging just 216.8 yards per game here. The Canes destroyed V-Tech last time out and I expect them to carry the momentum into this afternoon's game.
|11-23-18||Virginia v. Virginia Tech +4||Top||31-34||Win||100||74 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on V-Tech (10* BEST BET). I won with the Hokies in last season's 10-0 win. They were favored by -6.5 or -7 for that one, despite playing on the road. Now, playing at home, we're getting points. With all due respect to Virginia, I believe thats providing us with excellent value on the Hokies. If you just looked at the schedule, you'd see that this is the final game for the 4-6 Hokies, which would mean that they'd have no shot at making a bowl. However, there was an earlier game postponed and V-Tech and Marshall have agreed to a conditional game, which will be played here at Lane Stadium, on Dec. 1st. That means that if V-Tech can win this one, it'd absolutely be looking at bowl eligility. The Hokies have long dominated their instate rival. They'll face a Cavs team which has dropped two if its last three, the lone win coming against Liberty. V-Tech senior Ricky Walker had this to say: "This game is my favorite game of the year. It's nothing like playing those guys. No matter what, they always think they're better than us, and we just keep on winning, and just dominate… at the end of the day we just want to keep that cup in Blacksburg." Everything on the line in the biggest game of the year, expect the Walker and the Hokies to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST a cover.
|11-22-18||Falcons +13.5 v. Saints||Top||17-31||Loss||-133||80 h 12 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* MAIN EVENT). Going against the Saints may be a bit nerve-racking for some. Indeed, they've been on an impressive roll. However, even though it may seem that they're blowing everyone out of the water, lets not forget that three of their last five games have still been decided by 10 points or less. Speaking of "close games," since the Falcons hammered the Saints by a 45-32 score here at New Orleans in September of 2016, the last four meetings between these rivals have ALL been decided by 10 or fewer points. While the Falcons are surely disappointed with their record, they've still only lost one game by more than 12 points all season long. This is a huge game for them and I expect them to come "ready to play." With the Saints just 5-10 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range, I'm grabbing all those generous points.
|11-19-18||Chiefs v. Rams -3||Top||51-54||Push||0||104 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* MNF GAME OF YEAR). When this game was moved from Mexico to LA, I believe it was a bigger advantage for the Rams than is being indicated by the pointspread. Its true that the Rams have recently been winning, while not covering, with regularity. However, lets not forget that they're still 5-0 here at home and that they're still outscoring teams by an average of 34.4 to 22.4 when playing at home. In terms of total yards, they're outgaining teams by a 476 to 342 margin here. By comparison, the Chiefs are actually getting outgained by a 457.8 to 440 average margin, when playing on the road. Thats a major difference, the Rams allowing 342 yards at home while the Chiefs allowing 458 on the road. Expect the Rams to make a statement, remaining perfect at home, while covering the small number along the way.
|11-18-18||Steelers v. Jaguars +6||Top||20-16||Win||100||101 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE (10* GAME OF MONTH). Before the season began, not many would have predicted that the Steelers would be such big road favorites here. That would be particularly true if they knew that LeVeon Bell wasn't playing. Yet, that is indeed the case. The Steelers have been playing well while the Jags have underachieved. That said, I liked a number of things that I saw from the Jags in last weeks (3-point) loss vs. the Colts and I believe that the generous pointspread is providing us with excellent value. You may recall that the Jags beat the Steelers by three points in January. They also hammered them last October. Including those results, the're 5-0-1 ATS their last six against teams from the AFC North. They're going to come in confident. All four of Pittsburgh's road games have been decided by seven or fewer points. One finished in a tie, another was decided by three points. Speaking of close games, the Jags have now seen b2b games decided by six or fewer points. With another close game a real possibility and with the Steelers just 1-4 ATS their last five as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range, I'm grabbing the points.
|11-17-18||Tulsa v. Navy -5||Top||29-37||Win||100||78 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on NAVY (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Midshipmen have had an extremely difficult schedule. Tulsa is the weakest team that they've faced since September. Their last four games came against the likes of Cincinnati, UCF, Houston and Notre Dame. Those teams are 9-1, 9-0, 7-3 and 10-0. Now, the Midshipmen take a significant step down in class to take on a Tulsa team which is just 2-8. With a rare chance at victory, they won't waste the opportunity. Navy beat Tulsa by double-digits last season. Considering that Tulsa is winless on the road, each of the last four losses coming by double-digits, I'm expecting more of the same Saturday afternoon.
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic +3.5 v. North Texas||Top||38-41||Win||100||14 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on FAU (10* BEST BET). The Owls hammered North Texas again last season, after beating the Mean Green by 38 points (69-31) the previous season. Off b2b blowout wins and playing their best football of the season right now, I feel that they're offering us excellent value once again. Thats particularly true with this line opening below three and passing right through that important number. Having put up nearly 1200 yards of total offense their past two games alone, the Owls are oozing with confidence right now. On the other hand, North Texas lost outright, when favored by more than two touchdowns, in its last game. I'll gladly grab the points but I like FAU to win this one outright.
|11-14-18||Buffalo v. Ohio -1||Top||17-52||Win||100||55 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on OHIO (10* MAIN EVENT). Yes, I successfully played against the Bobcats, at Miami, last week. However, I've also won with them this season and I'm coming right back with them here. Even after spotting Miami a 28-7 lead, the Bobcats were never out of it. Here at home, they've been dominant, a perfect 4-0. Their last two games here saw the Bobcats win by a combined score of 101-28. Granted, Buffalo has had an excellent season. Even if the Bobcats beat the Bulls here, its going to be very difficult to catch them in the MAC East. Buffalo's final game is on the road. However, it comes against a weak Bowling Green team. So, the Bulls know that even if lose this one, they're still in pretty good shape. Division implications aside, expect the Bobcats to make a statement, showing that they may finish second in the East but that they can beat any team in the league, at least when playing on their home field.
|11-11-18||Saints v. Bengals +5||Top||51-14||Loss||-105||121 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on CINCY (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Saints have sure been on a nice roll. However, this will mark the fifth time that they played on the road, in their past seven games. Off a big win over the previously undefeated Rams, preceded by a big win over the Vikings, the team which knocked them out of the playoffs last season, I feel that the Saints are going to be ripe for a letdown here. Note that the Saints have long struggled against the AFC North, going 8-20-2 ATS their last 30. While the Saints were busy battling the Rams last week, the Bengals are coming off a bye. The Bengals have won three of four home games and I expect AT LEAST a cover Sunday afternoon.
|11-08-18||Panthers +4 v. Steelers||Top||21-52||Loss||-105||56 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* VIOLATOR). Both teams are hot. The Panthers have won three straight and five of six. The Steelers have won four straight and five of six. That said, I like the Panthers. While Pittsburgh is only 4-6 ATS its last 10 as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -7 range, Carolina is 11-5 ATS its last 16 as an underdog. The Panthers are also already 2-0 SU/ATS against AFC opponents, going 7-2-1 ATS (7-3 SU) their last 10. They hammered both Baltimore and Cincy by double-digits. While the Steelers figure to present a tougher challenge, in a game which could well come down to the wire, I'm taking the points.
|11-07-18||Ohio v. Miami-OH +4.5||Top||28-30||Win||100||12 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO (10* VIOLATOR). With the line climbing above three, in my opinion, we're getting excellent value with the home underdog. Note that Miami is 12-6 ATS its last 18, when getting points. Note that Ohio will be playing its second straight road game. This marks the third time that the Bobcats played b2b games away from home. In both previous cases, they lost. Off a neutral site game, they lost (but covered) at Cincy the next week. (I won with Ohio that week.) Off a game at Kent State, the Bobcats then lost at NIU. Note that both games were very close, each decided by four or less. Miami won its last game here by a score of 31-6 and lost its previous one by a single points. I like Miami's chances of the outright upset but in a game that may well come down to the wire, I'll happily grab the points.
|11-04-18||Bears v. Bills +10||Top||41-9||Loss||-105||75 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on BUFFALO (10* GAME OF WEEK). Everyone just saw the Bills lose, while failing to cover, against the Patriots on National TV. Off that loss, oddsmakers know that few bettors were going to want to back the Bills and were forced to put up a big number. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. While the Bears are clearly an improved team, they still aren't the type of team capable of winning by double-digits on the road. They're played three road games, winning only one of them. All three games were decided by three or fewer points. Despite the lopsided score last week, the Bills were in position to cover right up until the end, a late pick-6 doing them in. They're still playing hard. I expect them to give the Bears all they can handle.
|11-03-18||Louisiana Tech v. Mississippi State -20.5||Top||3-45||Win||100||127 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on MISS. STATE (10* NON-CONF GAME OF YEAR). The team from the SEC won last year's "Bulldog Battle" by 36 points. That was at LA Tech, too. With this year's rematch being placed at Miss. State, I'm absolutely expecting another lopsided result. The Bulldogs are 3-0 SU/ATS when facing a team from outside of SEC play, making the most of every non-conf. opportunity. LA Tech is playing the second of b2b road games. They'll face a Miss. State team which is outscoring teams by an average of 35.2 to 10.2 here at home. Their last two games here have been blowout victories over A&M and Auburn. Expect a one-sided affair.
|11-01-18||Ohio v. Western Michigan -2||Top||59-14||Loss||-105||82 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. I had the 'over' in last week's WMU game. So, I wasn't thrilled when QB Wassinick went down in the first quarter. However, Kaleb Eleby quickly put my mind at rest. Eleby completed his first eight passes and finished the game 23-for-28 for 293 yards, two touchdowns and a QB rating of 193.6. While the Broncos still lost, poor QB play wasn't the problem. This week, the Broncos will face Ohio, a team that they beat (29-23) to win the MAC title a couple of years ago. The Broncos did a fantastic job of shutting down the Ohio running game in that one, holding the Bobcats to 37 yards on 22 carries. Overall, they held a commanding edge in total yards and time of possession. The Broncos were favored by more than two TDs (opened at -18, closed at -16.5) for that one, despite the game being played at Ford Field. Of course, the faces are different now and much has changed. However, not enough has changed to warrant such a massive pointspread swing, in my opinion. While I respect the Bobcats (won with them at Cincy) they've only won one of four games away from home and that came by a single point. True, the Broncos got lit up last week. Its also true that the last time that they were off a loss, they responded with a 68-0 win, the start of a 6-game winning streak. They're 2-1 ATS the past couple of seasons off a conference loss and 4-1 ATS when playing a game where the line ranged from -3 to +3. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Thursday.
|10-28-18||Saints v. Vikings +1||Top||30-20||Loss||-112||128 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* TV GAME OF YEAR). I won with the Vikings when they beat the Saints 29-24 in the playoffs last season. Admittedly, I felt pretty fortunate to win that one; the victory coming on an unlikely Keenum to Diggs TD on the final play. That "good fortune" won't stop me from backing the Vikes again though. Minnesota opened at -3.5 and closed at -5.5 for that game. So, results varied, depending on when one played. However, the pointspread is essentially a non-factor in Sunday's rematch and I feel thats providing us with excellent value with the home team. Both teams are playing well. Since beating the defending champs, the Vikes have followed it up with back-to-back double-digit victories. Meanwhile, the Saints eked out a 1-point win (at Baltimore) last week and have now won five straight. That said, this will mark the Saints' fourth road game in their past five games. Thats a tough stretch and I expect it to catch up to them at this very hostile environment. While the Saints are still 9-10 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons, the Vikes are 15-5 here at home. Its worth noting that the Vikes are also 13-7 ATS the last 20 times that they played a game with a line in the -3 to +3 range. Expect home field and their superior defense to make the difference, in a statement win.
|10-27-18||Washington State v. Stanford -3||Top||41-38||Loss||-102||124 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on STANFORD (10* PAC 12 GOM). The Cougars have been rolling but I expect the Cardinal to finally slow them down on Saturday. I won with the Cardinal in their last game, a road win at ASU. I really like the fact that game was on a Thursday, giving Stanford some extra time for this big showdown. This is a game that Stanford has had circled as the Cougars beat them each of the last two seasons, blowing them out here in 2016. The Cardinal haven't forgotten. While the Cougars are allowing 31.7 ppg on the road this season, the Cardinal are allowing 15.7 pgg at home. Playing at home, where they're 17-8 ATS the last 25 times that the O/U line ranged from 52.5 to 56, expect them to finish on top, covering the small number along the way.
|10-26-18||Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic -2.5||Top||21-13||Loss||-109||104 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on FAU (10* VIOLATOR). Its been a tough start to the season for the Owls. However, the reality is that they've had an extremely difficult schedule. They've only played three home games and they won all three of them. The four road games came at places like Oklahoma and UCF. A home game against LA Tech, a team the Owls hammered 48-23 last November, figures to be just what the doctor ordered. While the Bulldogs are off a win, note that they're already 0-2 ATS when off a conference victory. Both teams obviously need the win but the Owls arguably need it more. This is an FAU team which absolutely still expects to get to a bowl but one which knows it needs to take care of business in this game to make that goal realistic. Expect a win and cover.
|10-22-18||Giants v. Falcons -3.5||Top||20-23||Loss||-103||34 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Neither team is where it wants to be, obviously. However, while the Giants' season is already a write-off, the Falcons still believe in theirs. Though they have an extremely difficult road ahead of them, the Falcons kept their hopes alive by beating the Bucs last week. They've got a more balanced and far more dangerous offense than do the Giants. While NY averages 19.5 ppg, 27th best in the NFL entering Sunday, the Falcons average 27.8, 9th best. At home, that number climbs to an impressive 34.5 points per game. With last week's win, the Falcons are 14-8 here the past 2+ seasons. That includes a 5-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. During the same span, the Giants were 3-6 ATS (1-8 SU) as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range, 5-14 on the road overall. While the Falcons have the type of offense capable of coming from behind, the same cannot necessarily be said of the Giants. Playing at home and trying to climb back into playoff relevance, expect the Falcons to put up another fairly big number and for the Giants to be unable to keep up.
|10-21-18||Browns v. Bucs -3||Top||23-26||Push||0||148 h 48 m||Show|
I'm playing on TB (10* NON-CONF GAME OF YEAR). While I successfully played against thm at Atlanta, the Bucs still played well in that game. Playing on the road against a desperate team, they refused to go away and took the game down to the wire. Now, they step down in class and return home. Cleveland has already shown its improved but last week's blowout loss to the Chargers revealed that there are still plenty of issuses. Still winless on the road, all the OT games have caught up. Note that Cleveland is 2-32 SU and 10-24 ATS its last 34 as an underdog. In fairness to the Bucs, they've played an awfully tough schedule. Three of their first five games were on the road (New Orleans, Chicago and Atlanta) and their two home games were against the defending Super Bowl champs, who they beat, and the Steelers, who they nearly beat. A home game against the Browns may not be as "easy" as it once was but its still far more appealing than hosting the likes of the Steelers or Eagles. Expect the Bucs, who know they have two road games on deck, to take advantage of the winnable home game, covering the small number along the way.
|10-20-18||Memphis v. Missouri -9.5||Top||33-65||Win||100||94 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on MISSOURI (10* GAME OF MONTH). This game was already going to be very tough for the Tigers to win. However, last week's result will make it even more so. Memphis is off a heart-breaking loss against UCF. The Tigers were up big at halftime, squandered the lead, had a chance to win, only to lose 31-30. As quarterback Brady White said: "This one hurts, for sure. We should've won that game." That very likely killed Memphis' hopes of competing for a division title. Those type of losses often take a toll and I expect that to be the case here. Missouri is off games against Georgia, South Carolina and Alabama, the last two of which came on the road. A break from SEC play will provide a welcome relief. Missouri is already 2-0 SU/ATS as a home favorite this season, winning by 37 and 27. Expect another double-digit win on Saturday afternoon.
|10-18-18||Stanford -2.5 v. Arizona State||Top||20-13||Win||100||75 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on STANFORD (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Cardinal had to fight hard to come back to beat Oregon. That victory seemed to take a toll, as they were hammered at Notre Dame the next week. Their undefeated record snapped, they followed it up with another loss, vs Utah, after that. Having had some time off, since those back-to-back losses, I expect the Cardinal to respond with their best effort on Thursday night. Stanford is 7-1 SU (5-2-1 ATS) its last eight as a road favorite. That includes a 3-0-1 ATS mark as a road favorite of three or fewer points. The Cardinal have suffered b2b SU losses (in the same season) twice over the past couple of seasons. Each time, they responded by winning and covering their next game, a 17-10 win at Notre Dame and a 58-34 win against UCLA. Expect them to bounce back with another win and cover Thursday.
|10-15-18||49ers +10 v. Packers||Top||30-33||Win||100||35 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF (10* MAIN EVENT). While they may only have one win, the 49ers have been competitive in every game. They're worst loss came by 11 and that was at KC. (They're outgaining opponents by a 378-348 average on the season.) Meanwhile, the Packers actually only have one victory by more than a point - and that was against Buffalo. Expect the 49ers to come to play, giving their hosts all they can handle and improving to 32-10 ATS their last 42 under the Monday night lights.
|10-14-18||Bucs v. Falcons -3||Top||29-34||Win||100||117 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* GAME OF MONTH). Needless to say, with a 1-4 record and with Carolina and New Orleans sitting at 3-1 and 4-1, this is a must-win game for the Falcons. The Bucs came back down to earth in a big way last time out (48-10 loss) and now Winston will be making his first start of the season. While they don't count close losses in the standings, it should be noted that Atlanta could easily have a better record and is still a talented team. The Falcons are still 13-8 here the past 2+ seasons, the Bucs are still 7-11 on the road, during the same period. The Falcons won both meetings against the Bucs last season, including a 34-20 victory in the game here at Atlanta. Note that the Falcons were laying -10 for that one. While salvaging the season isn't going to be at all easy, I don't believe that Falcons are ready to pack it in quite yet. Expect their best effort to lead to a win and cover.
|10-13-18||Colorado v. USC -7||Top||20-31||Win||100||58 h 14 m||Show|
I'm playing on USC (10* GAME OF WEEK). Colorado comes in with the higher ranking but the Trojans are favored for good reason. While all they can do is beat who the teams that they face, a closer look at the Buffaloes' schedule shows that its been very soft. The only true road game was at Nebraska and the Huskers have been a mess. The other games came against Colorado State, UCLA, New Hampshire and Arizona State - none of which have the type of talent that USC does. The Trojans are still undefeated at home and they're off back-to-back victories of their own. Those two wins (vs. Washington State and at Arizona) are both arguably more impressive than anything Colorado has accomplished. The Trojans won at 14 at Colorado this season. Look for the Buffaloes, just 4-9 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range, to come back down to earth.
|10-12-18||Air Force v. San Diego State -10||Top||17-21||Loss||-125||59 h 45 m||Show|
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* PERS FAV). Since losing its opening game to Stanford, San Diego State has been rolling. The Aztecs have now won four straight, most recently beating Boise, on the blue turf, last Saturday. That was a huge win for them and opened the door for a run at a New Year's Day Bowl. They're not going to let a weaker team like Air Force slow their momentum. Indeed, the Aztecs are 9-1 ATS (10-0 SU) their last 10 against sub-500 teams. While the Falcons are off a win over Navy, they'd lost their previous three. Though they, of course, do it differently, the Falcons are a team which runs the ball. Thats noteworthy as the Aztec defense was absolutely dominant against the Boise ground game. The Broncos managed just 51 rushing yards on 36 attempts. The Aztecs also successfully slowed the Falcons ground game (220 yards) in winning last season's game. Including that result, the Falcons are just 4-14 ATS their last 18 in conference play. Expect the short turn-around to work in the Aztecs' favor, as they ultimately pull away for a double-digit win.
|10-08-18||Redskins +6 v. Saints||Top||19-43||Loss||-108||28 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). Brees should get his record but the Skins will be the team which comes away with the cover. Last season's meeting here was decided by three points (in OT) and the Skins are arguably a stronger team now. Note that Washington led by double-digits, entering the fourth quarter. The Saints have only one victory by more than six points through this season's first four games. They're just 1-1 here at home and that win came by three points, against Cleveland. The Skins, 2-0 SU off their bye week the past two seasons, have had extra time to prepare. They won their only road game this season and check in off a victory against Green Bay. Like last season, this one may well come down to the wire. I'm grabbing the points.
|10-07-18||Raiders v. Chargers -4.5||Top||10-26||Win||100||54 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). As you're surely aware, the Raiders finaly got a win last week. However, that was at home, against Cleveland. Now, they're on the road against an arguably much tougher opponent. The Raiders' last visit here resulted in a 30-10 win for the Chagers. While the Chargers are only 2-2 and 1-3 ATS, their two losses came against the Rams and Chiefs, a pair of high level teams. When facing weaker opposition, they've taken care of business. While the Raiders have averaged 19.5 pgg in their two road games, the Chargers average 28.5 ppg and 454.5 ypg here at home. Factoring in that that the Raiders also allow more than 30 ppg and more than 400 ypg, when playing on the road, we can expect the Chargers to put up another fairly big number. Like last year, the Raiders will be unable to keep up.
|10-07-18||Titans v. Bills +3.5||Top||12-13||Win||100||144 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on BUFFALO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Bills are going to be a desperate team here. At 1-3 and with a pair or road games up next, they know that they need to take care of business here. The Titans may be ripe for a letdown as they are off an emotional OT win over the defending champs. Note that ALL three of their victories have come by fewer than four points. In other words, they have yet to win a game by more than field goal this season. True, the Bills have gotten off to a tough start. However, the blowout victory at Minnesota shows that they're capable and I feel that this is a team they'll match up well against. With the Titans just 2-7-1 ATS (4-6 SU) the last 10 times that they were off two or more consecutive victories, I'm grabbing the points.
|10-06-18||Northwestern v. Michigan State -10||Top||29-19||Loss||-110||65 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). I believe that this is going to prove a tough spot for Northwestern. The Wildcats very nearly upset Michigan last week. However, after leaving it all on the field, they ended up coming up a little short, Michigan winning 20-17. After coming so close to scoring the monumental upset, only to come up short, I expect them to have trouble focusing on the task at hand here. The Spartans are coming in with payback on their minds, after losing last season's meeting in triple-OT and after the Wildcats upset them here the previous season. The Spartans are highly experienced on both sides of the ball and they haven't forgotten those games. Expect a double-digit win.
|10-05-18||Georgia Tech v. Louisville +4.5||Top||66-31||Loss||-110||73 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on LOUISVILLE (10* BEST BET). The Cardinals' tough (2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS) start has helped in providing us with excellent value. However, lets not forget that the Cards were underdogs for all three of the games that they dropped, so the losses weren't entirely unexpected. The Jackets are also 2-3 and they have yet to win on the road. In fact, including their losses at USF and Pittsburgh, the Jackets are 0-4 SU/ATS the past four times that they were laying points on the road. The Cards are 25-14 ATS the last 39 times that they were off b2b consecutive SU losses.
|10-04-18||Colts v. Patriots -10||Top||24-38||Win||100||84 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Pats got going in a big way last week and I expect them to carry the momentum into Thursday's game. Playing at home, in b2b weeks, when playing on a short week is an advantage. The Colts, meanwhile, will be playing their third road game in the past four weeks and they're coming off a hard-fought OT loss against Houston. That defeat was both emotionally and physically draining and its going to be tough to bounce back quickly against a suddenly surging New England team which is going to be looking to make a statement on National TV. Expect a blowout.
|10-01-18||Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5||Top||27-23||Win||100||180 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Chiefs have obviously looked pretty good, I feel that the value lies with the home team. While both games were close, lets not forget that the Broncos are 2-0 on this field. Speaking of close games, note that both of the games here the last two seasons were decided by three points. The Chiefs are already playing their third road game in the first four weeks. Expect it to catch up to them, the home underdog Broncos taking the game down to the wire and earning AT LEAST the cover.
|09-30-18||Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5||Top||7-38||Win||100||116 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. (10* AFC GOM) While they may have lost two in a row, bettors know better than to count out the Patriots. Thats why they're stil healthy favorites here, despite Miami boasting the superior record. The Pats are favored for good reason, however, and I expect them to do more than enough to bring home the cash. At 3-0, the Dolphins have over-achieved. Note that they're actually getting outgained by an average of 377 to 324, while also getting beaten in terms of time of possession and first downs. A closer look shows that the schedule-maker has also arguably helped the Dolphins quite a bit, too. Their three games came against the Titans, Jets and Raiders, two of the three coming at home. Those three teams are a combined 3-6, entering Week 4. They were a combined 20-27 last season. The Pats, on the other hand, have played two of three on the road and their games came against the Jags, Lions and Texans. Most would agree that the Pats have faced the tough opponents. New England did take care of business in its lone home game, a 7-point with over the Texans. With that victory, the Pats are 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. They beat the Dolphins by 18 here last season, after beating them by seven here the previous season. Expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon.
|09-29-18||Oregon v. California +3.5||Top||42-24||Loss||-115||133 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAL (10* GAME OF YEAR). The Ducks hammered the Bears last season. However, everything sets up for the Bears to get some payback. While the Ducks have indeed won eight of the past nine meetings, the Bears did take the most recent here in Berkeley. You may recall that one, as it was a double-OT (52-49) thriller.
Speaking of "OT games," I won with the Ducks "over" the total in last Saturday's game against Stanford. (Top rated CFB Totals now 5-0 YTD.) Not only did the game finish comfortably above the total, it served another purpose. It helped knock the wind out of the Ducks. If you only watched the first portion of that game, you would have seen an Oregon team which was dominating. Announcers were proclaiming that "this was a new breed of Duck," one that was now pushing around Stanford, instead of being pushed. In the end, however, the Cardinal still finished on top, a 38-31 comeback OT win. (In case, you missed it, the Ducks were up 24-7. Stanford recovered a fumble with 52 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter to allow for the tying FG to force OT.)
Thats the type of result that can and will take a toll on a team. The Ducks had indeed been playing great and they left it all on the field. Stanford was a team which had crushed them twice in a row and they were so close to settling the score. To get that close, only to come up short, is tough to recover from. Thats particularly true given that the Ducks were thinking "undefeated season" if they could beat Stanford too. Broken dreams are most difficult to overcome when so close to actually happening.
Cal, meanwhile, checks in off a bye week. While the Ducks were involved in a tough physical OT loss, the Bears were resting, watching and game-planning. Not only are they fresh, but they're going to come in confident. The Bears began the season by beating UNC by seven. Next, they went on the road and won at BYU. Thats no small feat when considering that BYU is now 3-1, including road wins at Arizona and Wisconsin.
This is an experienced Cal team, too; the Bears brought back 18 starters from last season. They've been tough at home in recent seasons and they fully understand the magnitude of this game and the opportunity which is in front of them. The Ducks have struggled on the road in recent seasons and are just 1-4 ATS their last five as a road favorite. I feel the devastating Stanford loss is going to have a big effect and I'm grabbing the points.
|09-27-18||Vikings +7 v. Rams||Top||31-38||Push||0||35 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* BEST BET). Off their (29-29) showdown with the Packers and perhaps looking ahead to this game, the Vikings didn't show up last week against Buffalo. Favored by more than two touchdowns, against a team which had been outscored by a 78-23 margin through its first two games, the Vikings got destroyed. Now, they take on a red hot Rams team. While I respect the Rams, I believe that the Vikes will bounce back with their best effort. The Vikings dominated the Rams last season, outgaining them by a 171-45 margin on the ground, while also beating them through the air. They had a huge advantage in time of possession and had nearly twice as many first downs. While the Rams are arguably stronger than last season, the Vikes also arguably have a better lineup than last season. Expect the Rams to bring out their best, as they put it all together en route to AT LEAST a cover.
|09-23-18||Bears v. Cardinals +6||Top||16-14||Win||100||76 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* DOG OF WEEK). The Cards (0-2) need this one more and I expect that to show on the field. The Bears have been involved in a pair of emotional games to start the season and are playing on a short week. Even with the cover (still lost by one) at Lambeau, the Bears are The Cards are a perfect 4-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off two or more consecutive losses. Expect them to improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover on Sunday afternoon.
|09-23-18||Bengals v. Panthers -2.5||Top||21-31||Win||100||144 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* GAME OF YEAR). I won with the Panthers in their opener and then successfully played against them in their second game, at Atlanta. Really, they played well in both games. The same can be said for the Bengals, who check in off a big divisional win over the Ravens and with a 2-0 record overall. Expect them to come back to earth here though. The fact that the win over the Ravens was on National TV has everybody jumping on board the Bengal band wagon. This is still a very tough place to play though and, Week 1 at Indy notwithstanding, the Bengals have been terrible on the road for as long as anyone can remember. Including the Week 1 victory, a game in which they dominated the Cowboys defensively, the Panthers are 11-6 at home the past two seasons. During the same span, the Bengals are only 6-11 on the road. While the Panthers have a balanced run/pass attack, Newton threw for 335 yards (32-of-45) and three TD's (105.3 passer rating) last week and he's going to be licking his chops for this week's matchup. Hidden behind their 2-0 record, the Bengals have allowed 332 passing yards per game. Yes, part of that comes from the fact that they've been playing ahead and opposing teams have been forced to throw. However, at more than 400 yards allowed per game, I feel it'll catch up to them here. Carolina wins, covering the small number along the way.
|09-20-18||Tulsa v. Temple -6.5||Top||17-31||Win||100||97 h 45 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEMPLE (10* MAIN EVENT). After a horrible start, the Owls got back on track in a big way last time out, going on the road and blowing out Maryland. That'll give them confidence here. Tulsa, on the other hand, has gone the opposite direction, losing its last two. Keep in mind that the Golden Hurricane were only 2-10 last season. While I do believe that they're improved, they haven't improved enough. Temple pulls away for a double-digit win.
|09-17-18||Seahawks +3.5 v. Bears||Top||17-24||Loss||-115||58 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on SEATTLE (10* GAME OF WEEK). While I played against the Hawks, I'm coming right back with them this week. The Bears came out and showed everyone that they aren't going to be a pushover last week, jumping all over the Packers out of the gate. In the end, however, Green Bay still managed to come away with the SU victory. That type of heart-breaking loss figures to be difficult for the Bears to immediately bounce back from. Now the favorite, the Bears find themselves in pretty unfamiliar territory here. Note that they're just 1-5 ATS (and SU!) the last six times that they were laying points. Both teams saw their Week 1 games decided by three or fewer points. I could also see this one easily coming down to the wire and am grabbing the points.
|09-16-18||Panthers v. Falcons -6||Top||24-31||Win||100||27 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played on CAROLINA last week while also successfully played against Atlanta. As you know, the Falcons were at Philadelphia while the Panthers were hosting the Cowboys. The shoe is on the other foot this week, however, as Atlanta is now at home while Carolina is on the road. Thats pretty signficant for both teams. While Carolina is tough to beat a home, the Panthers aren't the same team on the road. They're just 7-9 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons, just 1-4 SU when listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. Not surprisingly, the Panthers eked out a victory when they hosted the Falcons last season but lost 22-10 here at Atlanta. Including those results, they're only 4-9 SU/ATS their last 13 divisional games. The Falcons, meanwhile, have won nine of their last 12 within the division. Expect them to improve on those stats Sunday afternoon, picking up the cover along the way.
|09-15-18||Arizona State v. San Diego State +6||Top||21-28||Win||100||36 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (10* BEST BET). We're getting excellent value with the Aztecs for a number of reasons. A few of those reasons include: 1. The Sun Devils are 2-0 and off an upset of Michigan State causing bettors to jump on the bandwagon. 2. The Sun Devils are playing with 'revenge' from last year, an angle the betting public typically favors. 3. The Aztecs are without their starting QB. None of those reasons are enough to cause me to believe Arizona State can even win this game, let alone cover a pointspread which has continued to get bigger since its opener. The revenge angle can sometimes be a motivating factor but its not going to come into play for a team celebrating last week's upset and looking ahead to conference play, which I feel makes them ripe for an upset. The Aztecs dominated last year's game on the ground, so the loss of Chapman isn't a huge concern. In fact, they weren't really playing that well with Chapman in the game last week and only pulled away after he went down. Agnew got some much needed game-experience, going 11-for-17. While the Aztecs have won 11 of 14 here, ASU, which was 3-8 on the road the past two seasons, is just 1-4 ATS the past five times it was off two or more consecutive victories. I'm grabbing the points.
|09-15-18||Florida State -3 v. Syracuse||Top||7-30||Loss||-130||118 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on FSU (10* ACC GAME OF YEAR). Off their opening loss against V-Tech, the Noles came out flat against an inferior opponent last week, winning but not covering. They'll be fully "recovered" now though and I expect them to take out their frustrations on the Orange. The Noles have long thrived as small road favorites and they've dominated Syracuse for years. They won 45-14 last time here, while laying -23 points. The Orange have indeed improved, but not by enough. Expect another win and cover for the determined visitors.
|09-10-18||Rams v. Raiders +4.5||Top||33-13||Loss||-110||77 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). While I respect the Rams, I don't think the Raiders are being given enough credit by the betting public here. Sure, it would be nice to have Mack back on defense. However, is departure doesn't immediately make them terrible, the way so many seem to be claiming and expecting. While the Raiders defense being without Mack will dominate the headlines, few will mention that the Rams offense will be without starting right guard Brown, as he's out due to suspension. Nor will they consider that the offense may well be rusty, due to the starters sitting during the preseason. Gruden is going to have his team fired up, as will the crowd. McVay got much of his coaching philosophy from Gruden and considers him a mentor. Expect the "mentor" to earn AT LEAST a cover against the "student" on Monday night.
|09-09-18||Bears v. Packers -7||Top||23-24||Loss||-109||50 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on GREEN BAY (10* MAIN EVENT). The Packers have been beating up on the Bears for a long time now, particularly here at Lambeau. Last season's game here saw GB win by a score of 35-14. The previous season, they won 26-10 here. While some of the other faces have come and gone, so long as McCarthy and Rodgers are running the show, we should be able to expect another big win on Sunday night. The Bears managed only 14.5 points per road game last season. They're 4-8 ATS (2-10 SU) the past dozen times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. The Packers, meanwhile, are 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) the past nine times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Expect Rodgers and co. to improve on those stats Sunday night.
|09-08-18||Rice +17.5 v. Hawaii||Top||29-43||Win||100||76 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on RICE (10* BEST BET). This line is far too big, in my opinion. Its an over-reaction to last week's results. Hawaii won big while Rice was blown out. However, a closer look reveals that the Owls won their first game and though they lost big, they still covered. Hawaii does deserve some credit for its 2-0 start. However, now the inexperienced Warriors go from being the big underdog to being the big favorite, a role they're unfamiliar with. Expect the Owls to give them all they can handle.
|09-02-18||Miami-FL -3 v. LSU||Top||17-33||Loss||-109||26 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). The "neutral site" venue is AT&T Stadium which gives the Tigers a slight home field edge, due to crowd support. However, it won't be enough to overcome the advantages which the Hurricanes have working in their favor. The Canes are experienced on both sides of the ball and represent Richt's best team since coming here. The Tigers suffered pretty heavy losses on both sides of the ball. They're learning a new offense after losing last season's QB, top two RB's and top two WR's. Expect more experienced Miami to pull away for a win and cover.
|09-01-18||BYU +11 v. Arizona||Top||28-23||Win||100||15 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on BYU (10* BEST BET). We're getting plenty of points with what I feel is an under-valued and extremely motivated Cougar team. BYU brings back plenty of starters on both sides of the ball and is determined to get rid of the bad taste from last year. While beating Arizona isn't going to be easy, the Wildcats do have a new coach. Sumlin brings an impressive record with him and he's admittedly got plenty work with. success isn't always immediate and I have expect him to have his hands full here. I especially like the matchup of the experience BYU defensive line vs. the inexperienced Arizona offensive line. The Cougars have long had success in season openers and I expect them to give their hosts all they can handle.
|08-31-18||Western Kentucky v. Wisconsin -34||Top||3-34||Loss||-110||1091 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing on WISCONSIN (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Badgers have won their last 22 opening season Camp Randall games. Those victories have come by an average of 26 points. This season's opener figures to be even more lopsided. At first glance, this might seem like a big number to be laying against a WKU team which was a combined 23-5 in 2015/16. However, the Hilltoppers took a step back last year and this season is likely going to be even tougher. Certainly, it won't start as well. (Last season, the Hilltoppers were -36 point favorites in their opener against Eastern Kentucky. They won by 14.) The Badgers are off a dominant season and return nine starters on offense. They're not going to be stopped, nor will they let up. The Hilltoppers, who return only three starters on offense, aren't equipped to trade punches, or to try and catch up. The Badgers are thinking National Title this season. Expect them to make a statement, kicking things off by destroying their inferior opponent.
|01-14-18||Saints v. Vikings -3.5||Top||24-29||Win||100||151 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Saints are tough to beat at home. However, the were only 3-4 SU/ATS in 'true' road games. That includes a double-digit loss here at Minnesota. Including that 29-19 result on 9/11, the Vikings are an impressive 7-1 (6-1-1 ATS) at home. The Vikings have thrived in the favorite role in recent seasons. Including an 8-3-1 ATS mark this year, they're 21-9-1 ATS, the past 2+ seasons, when laying points. While Brees had a big game againt Carolina, the Saints were unable to run the ball effectively. That was against a Panther defense which came in allowing more than 20 ppg and which they'd already scored 30+ against twice in the regular season. Now, they'll face a Vikings defense which allows a mere 12.5 ppg and 248.5 ypg here at home. Expect homefield advantage combined with the extra week of preparation time and the superior defense to all prove the difference, the Vikings advancing to the next round, while picking up the cover along the way.
|01-07-18||Panthers +6.5 v. Saints||Top||26-31||Win||100||149 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Behind an improved defense and an improved ground game, the Saints got the better of the Panthers in both regular season meetings. However, the Panthers started playing their best football, arguably, after the 12/3 loss at New Orleans. I expect them to give the Saints a much tougher test in Round 3. Note that before this season, the previous four meetings between these teams were all decided by five or fewer points. The Panthers, who have more recent playoff experience than the Saints, are 10-4 ATS as underdogs the past 2+ seasons, 5-2 ATS their past seven. Expect them to improve on those results on Sunday afternoon.
|01-01-18||Alabama v. Clemson||Top||24-6||Win||100||680 h 13 m||Show|
10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR I'm playing on Alabama. I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. Last season, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' For Round 3, I'm backing the Crimson Tide.
Needless to say, both teams had great seasons. Each had only one loss. For Clemson, that setback came back in mid-October, a shocking upset loss against Syracuse. (The Orange were the worst team in the ACC's Coastal Division this season.) Sure, Clemson lost its QB to injury in that game. However, does anyone really think Alabama would have ever lost to Cuse, regardless of who was behind center?
As you're probably aware, Alabama's loss came much later in the season, as the Tide were defeated by Auburn in their last game. While they may be fortunate to be here at all, based on that loss, I fully expect the Tide to respond with their very best effort.
Both teams have outstanding defenses. However, I believe that the Tide are better on that side of the ball. They allowed an average of only 11.5 points on the season, a paltry 257.8 yards. Clemson's numbers were close but a little higher. The Tigers allowed 12.8 ppg and 277.9 ypg. On the road, the Tigers allowed 354.5 ypg. Meanwhile, the Tide allowed just 274.8 ypg on the road. The Tide also have an advantage on yards allowed per play.
While the perception may be that Clemson is superior on offense, the numbers don't back that up. The Tigers averaged a healthy 35.4 ppg and 448.4 ypg. However, the Tide beat them in both areas. Alabama averaged 39.1 and 465.4.
One of the reasons Alabama lost the game in the Iron Bowl was because of poor health. However, the extended break has given the Tide a chance to recover and they'll be much healthier than they were for Auburn.
The Tigers are admittedly tough to run against. However, they haven't faced a ground game like this one. I expect the Tide - and their 3-headed rushing attack - to have success on the ground.
After last year's loss and after failing to cover in both games against Clemson, Nick Saban, who took some heat for not speaking out on Roy Moore, has lost a little of his 'unbeatable' image. Don't buy into that. He's still an amazing coach and he'll have his team ready to go. Expect him to have the last laugh, the Tide taking the 'tiebreaker.'
|12-31-17||Redskins v. Giants +3.5||Top||10-18||Win||100||118 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* GAME OF WEEK). Many are going to expect the Giants to pack it in. I'm not among them. While I successfully played against the Giants last week, this one figures to have considerably more meaning to them. Home finale. Divisional opponent. Revenge game. Possibly Eli's last start here. (Even if he doesn't play the whole game, he's going to start. And the latest word was: "we want Eli to take every snap.") The Skins played well in their home finale last week. However, like the Giants, they've got issues on both sides of the ball. Look for NY to want this one a little more and that to lead to AT LEAST a cover.
|12-30-17||Washington v. Penn State -2.5||Top||28-35||Win||100||627 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on Penn State. The Nittany Lions come in on a roll and full of confidence. They won each of their final three games by double-digits, including a 66-3 dismantling of Maryland in their most recent game. Including that laugher, the Lions are now a lucrative 16-4 SU/ATS when off two or more consecutive SU victories. During the same span, the Huskies, who closed the season with b2b wins, are just 8-10 ATS two or more consecutive SU victories. With Penn State listed as a small favorite, its worth noting that Washington is 0-4 SU/ATS the last four times that it played a game where the line ranged from -3 to +3. The Huskies have indeed been excellent against the run. However, they haven't seen a back like Saquon Barkley, who averaged 179.5 all purpose yards per game. Look for the Lions to find a way to get Barkley the ball in space, ultimately pulling away for the win and cover.
|12-29-17||USC +7 v. Ohio State||Top||7-24||Loss||-120||609 h 39 m||Show|
10* COTTON BOWL GAME OF THE MONTH. I’m playing on USC. Its true that I won with Ohio State in its last game, 27-21 win over Wisconsin, a game they won by six points. However, I feel that the Buckeyes are over-rated for this one and I expect USC to come in as the 'hungrier' and more focused team. While this is still a "big" bowl game, its definitely not what the Buckeyes were hoping for. With only one loss on their resume, the Buckeyes felt that they should have earned one of four spots in the College Football Playoff. As you know, that didnt happen. As much as they'd like to show everyone that they deserved to be there, I believe the sting of not being chosen is going to take a lot of them. USC, on the other hand, should be happier to be here. While the Buckeyes are admittedly tough on both sides of the ball, I expect the Trojans front seven to cause all sorts of problems. Off five straight wins, the Trojans come in full of confidence. While OSU saw only one game decided by less than six points this season, the Trojans saw five games decided by five or fewer points this season, winning four of those. I expect that "close game" experience to serve them well, as they take this game down to the wire with a great shot at the upset.
|12-28-17||Stanford v. TCU -3||Top||37-39||Loss||-109||24 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on TCU (10* MAIN EVENT). While I respect both coaches and both programs, I like the fact that TCU is playing in its home state. I also believe that the Frogs match up well against the Cardinal. While Stanford has an outstanding running game, one of the Frogs' biggest strengths is their ability to defend the run. Indeed, they ranked #4 in the entire country, in terms of rushing defense. The Frogs are 9-2 SU their last 11 non-conf. games and 7-2 SU their last nine, when off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way.
|12-27-17||Boston College v. Iowa -2.5||Top||20-27||Win||100||10 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on IOWA (10* ANNIHILATOR). While the Eagles were a profitable team this season, they're not getting many points here and I feel that they'll ultimately be over-matched. BC averaged 26.2 points on offense, Iowa averaged 28.3. While BC allowed 22.5 ppg, Iowa allowed 19.5. The Eagles are just 2-3-2 ATS (2-5 SU) their past seven, when the line ranged from +3 to -3. During the same span, the Hawkeyes were 4-2-1 ATS, in the same situation. A 56-14 win at Lincoln, on the Huskers' Senior Day, to close out the season showed how explosive that the Hawkeyes can be and has them full of confidence. I expect them to cover this small number.
|12-26-17||Kansas State v. UCLA +7||Top||35-17||Loss||-130||13 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). Having won four of five, the Wildcats come in with a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, Bruins' QB Rosen is currently listed as doubtful while the coaching staff is in transition. That has many expecting a big win for the Wildcats. That sentiment, in turn, has created a generously big pointspread. I'm not expecting the Bruins to just roll over and I feel that they're offering excellent value. K-State's last three games were all decided by five or fewer points. Its last four were decided by seven or less. UCLA's last three games were decided by seven or fewer points and its last two were decided by five or less. The Cats were just 2-4 ATS when favored and they're only 5-11-1 ATS in that role the past few seasons. I'm grabbing the points.
|12-25-17||Steelers v. Texans +9||Top||34-6||Loss||-105||31 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* BEST BET). Both teams lost last week. The Texans got destroyed at Jacksonville. The Steelers lost a heartbreaker against the Pats. While Pittsburgh was obviously much better in its loss, I believe that it will be easier for the Texans to 'bounce back' from theirs. For Houston, this game is as big as its going to get. Home finale. National TV. A chance to show the world that its a better team than the record indicates. The Steelers, on the other hand, have bigger games ahead. Last week's 'thriller' marked their fourth consecutive game which was decided by three or fewer points. Losing in that fashion can take a toll. Not having Antonio Brown doesn't help, either. Six of the Steelers' last seven have been decided by a less than a touchdown. I'm taking the points.
|12-24-17||Giants v. Cardinals -4||Top||0-23||Win||100||128 h 41 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Its obviously been a disappointing season for both teams. While neither will be going to the playoffs, I expect the Cards to be the more motivated team on Sunday afternoon. After all, this is their home finale. They're still 4-3 here on the season and a victory gives them a winning record here. On the other hand, the Giants are just 1-6 on the road. Last game here, the Cards beat the Titans by five. A month ago, they beat the Jags here. While the Cards are off b2b "non-divisional" games, the Giants are off b2b divisional contests, the type that can take a toll on a team. They fought hard vs. the Eagles last week but it wasn't enough. Off that tough loss and with another divisional game, their home finale, on deck, its going to be hard for them to "get up" for this one. While the Giants allow 396.8 ypg on the road, the Cards allow just 286.4 ypg at home. Expect the home fans to go home happy.
|12-23-17||Appalachian State v. Toledo -6||Top||34-0||Loss||-110||8 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on TOLEDO (10* MAIN EVENT). The line came down a little from its opener providing us with value on the favorite. The Mountaineers put up a big number in their last game but I expect them to have trouble keeping up this evening. Toledo scored better than 39 ppg on the road this season. Appalachian State, meanwhile, managed just 26 ppg on the road. Rockets, who have scored nearly 150 combined points their past three, pull away for the double-digit win.
|12-22-17||Central Michigan v. Wyoming -3||Top||14-37||Win||100||46 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on WYOMING (10* GAME OF WEEK). On Wednesday, Wyoming coach Craig Bohl confirmed that his star QB, Josh Allen would start the Potato Bowl: "Josh and I had a long talk, and Josh is ready to play and start in this football game. He's had several great practices, and so he's in position to be 100 percent." Thats the good news that I'd been waiting for. Allen's a big time talent and he makes the Cowboys a far better team. On defense, led by Andrew Wingard the Cowboys are outstanding. They allowed just 17.8 ppg. While CMU finished the season on an impressive run, I look for the time off to favor what I feel is an under-rated Wyoming team. The fact that Wyoming played here on the Blue Turf (lost but covered) two months ago, should also work in its favor. Cowboys roll.
|12-18-17||Falcons v. Bucs +6.5||Top||24-21||Win||100||24 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing on TB (10* MAIN EVENT). While its been a disappointing season for the Bucs, they're still fighting hard. Only one of their past five games has resulted in a loss of greater than six points. That one loss came at Atlanta, vs. these same Falcons, a 34-20 setback a few weeks ago. Since then, like the Bucs, the Falcons have been involved in some close games - a 5-point loss and a 3-point win. Playing with revenge against a divisional rival and getting to do so on Monday Night, I expect the Bucs to treat this game like their Super Bowl. Look for them to give the Falcons, who have been outscored by a 22.8 to 22.7 margin on the road this season, all they can handle, with an excellent shot at the outright upset.
|12-16-17||Oregon v. Boise State +7.5||Top||28-38||Win||100||26 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on BOISE (10* MAIN EVENT). I won with the Ducks in their last game, a 69-10 thrashing of Oregon State in the "Civil War." So, I'm well aware that the Ducks enter the Bowls on a roll. Its important not to over-react from that blowout. First, Oregon State was terrible this season. Second, that was only game. Even factoring in the result, the Ducks have still lost four of their last seven. The Broncos eked out a win in their last game and have now won eight of their past nine. Boise did lose by three points at Washington State earlier in the season. However, that same Washington State team hammered the Ducks by a score of 33-10. Plus, the Broncos had to face the Cougars on the road while the Ducks got to host them. With the Broncos a profitable 26-14-1 ATS their last 41 as underdogs, I'm grabbing the points.
|12-11-17||Patriots v. Dolphins +11.5||Top||20-27||Win||100||31 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pats, who play at Pittsburgh next week, are playing their fourth road game in the past five weeks. This will mark their third straight divisional game. The lone home game they've played recently was against these same Dolphins. New England won and covered. The Dolphins have since snapped their skid, however, destroying Denver by a 35-9 margin here next week. The Dolphins are much better here. They've got a winning record here at home and they've outgained teams by an average margin of 349 to 286. I'm grabbing all those generous points.
|12-10-17||Eagles v. Rams -1||Top||43-35||Loss||-120||121 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* GAME OF MONTH). Playing at one of the toughest environments in the league, the Eagles saw their run finally come to an end last week. Off that 24-10 setback, now playing on the west coast for the second straight week, I expect them to taste defeat again on Sunday. The Rams have been every bit as hot as the Eagles and check in off back-to-back impressive victories. While both teams have averaged an identical 30.1 ppg overall, the Eagles' average score dips to 25.2 when playing away from Philly. While the Eagles allow 20.7 ppg on the road, the Rams are allowing a mere 15.8 ppg at home. Expect homefield to prove significant, the Rams improving to 10-3.
|12-03-17||Eagles v. Seahawks +5.5||Top||10-24||Win||100||149 h 60 m||Show|
10* BEST BET on the Seattle Seahawks (8:30 EST). Seattle’s a game behind the Rams in the NFC West. Philadelphia has been amazing to this point, but this is a tough matchup. Nine wins in a row. Surely the Eagles have to be feeling pretty good about themselves at this point. Both teams come in off wins, with the Eagles handling the Bears 31-3 and Seattle surviving a potentially dangerous trap with a 24-13 road win in San Francisco. So far Carson Wentz and Philadelphia average 31.9 PPG and allow 17.4. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks average 24.2 PPG and allow 19.3. Wentz has looked unshakable to this point, but this is the opener of a tough three-game swing for the Eagles, with tough upcoming contests in LA and then in New York and suffice it to say, I’m finally expecting a letdown here. At 7-4 the Seahawks margin for error is extremely slim, especially considering how well the Rams are playing in their division. With a tough game in Jacksonville up next, I look for Seattle to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the closing moments. Grab the points.
|12-02-17||Memphis v. Central Florida -7||Top||55-62||Push||0||118 h 14 m||Show|
10* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Central Florida. Memphis went 7-1 in AAC play, while UCF comes in at 12-0 overall, including 8-0 in league play. When these teams met in late September, it was UCF that flattened Memphis 40-13. The Tigers rebounded to win seven straight behind QB Riley Ferguson, who threw for 3,500 yards and had a 32:8 TD:INT this season. The Tigers roll into town averaging 47 PPG, but allowing an average of 453 YPG, which ranks the team 112th in the nation. UCF averages 48.3 PPG, but allows just 399 YPG (including just 72 rushing yards per contest.) Keep your eyes on UCF QB McKenzie Milton, who finished with 3,301 passing yards and a 30:6 TD:INT. The Memphis offense was awesome this season, but the defense leaves something to be desired. UCF destroyed Memphis earlier in the year and I think all signs point to a similar destruction this afternoon. Lay the points, UCF rolls.
|12-01-17||Stanford v. USC -3||Top||28-31||Push||0||103 h 13 m||Show|
10* MAIN EVENT on USC. Stanford was 7-2 in league play and posted a 38-20 win over Notre Dame last Saturday. USC was 8-1 in conference action and most recently held on for a 28-23 victory over UCLA last weekend. When these teams played in early September, it was the Trojans which smashed the Cardinal 42-24. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Stanford has been strong defensively this year overall, allowing just 20 PPG. However, when these teams met in September, USC piled up 623 yards of offense. The Trojans allow just 26 PPG, while posting 489 per contest of their own. USC QB Sam Darnold threw for four TD’s in the victory over the Cardinal in the first matchup this season and I have a hard time seeing Stanford fairing much better this time around either. Lay the points, Trojans roll.
|11-25-17||BYU -2.5 v. Hawaii||Top||30-20||Win||100||147 h 12 m||Show|
10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on BYU. Both teams have just three wins to their names. BYU comes in off a 16-10 loss to UMass, amassing just 299 total yards. Cougars’ QB Joe Critchlow was 21 of 45 for 257 yards, one TD and four picks. The Warriors can empahtize, as they come into the final game of the year on a four game slide, most recently falling 38-0 at Utah as a ten point dog. In that game Hawaii was outgained 475 to 318. Both teams have more questions than answers as we close the 2017/18 campaign, but note that BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road fav of three points or less, while Hawaii is a miserable 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home dog of three points or less. Hawaii’s pass defense has been atrocious and I like Critchlow to take advantage. Lay the points, BYU rolls.
|11-23-17||Ole Miss +14 v. Mississippi State||Top||31-28||Win||100||98 h 27 m||Show|
10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Mississippi. Ole Miss needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Or, that in fact would be the case if it had not put a self-imposed bowl ban on itself before the season started. Despite that fact though, I look for Ole Miss to push for that sixth victory today. The Runnin Rebels failed to accomplish that in last week’s 31-24 setback to Texas A&M. I’m not calling for the outright upset here, but clearly Mississippi won’t be lacking for motivation today. The Rebels also play with revenge after Mississippi State crushed them 55-20 last season. The Ole Miss defense looked decent last week, giving up just 396 total yards. Its passing offense, led by Jordan Ta-amu, is ranked seventh in the nation. The Bulldogs needed to score 14 unanswered points in the final four minutes to beat Arkansas 28-21 last week. Mississippi State’s defense remains a strength and is a big reason why the team will be playing in a bowl in December. But as mentioned above though, the Rebels won’t be going down without a fight today in their final game of the year. Ole Miss enters averaging 335 passing YPG and I think Ta’amu will keep his team in this one late. Grab the points.
|11-20-17||Falcons v. Seahawks -3||Top||34-31||Loss||-105||178 h 58 m||Show|
10* MAIN EVENT on the Seattle Seahawks. The Hawks come in off a hard-fought 22-16 win at division rival Arizona last week and are now 6-3 on the year. Both teams have looked horrible at times this season and really good in others. The Falcons looked great last weekend, handling a struggling Dallas team 27-7, but I think it’s primed for a letdown here in this tough atmosphere. The Falcons are a “dome” team and playing in the Pacific Northwest at this time of year is never an easy thing, even on the best of nights. Despite having some injuries to its defense (Richard Sherman), Seattle still holds a major advantage at home. With a three-game home stand starting next week and with division foe Tampa Bay up first, it’s also not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead. This spread could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Seahawks roll.
|11-19-17||Eagles v. Cowboys +3||Top||37-9||Loss||-100||154 h 5 m||Show|
10* MAIN EVENT on the Dallas Cowboys. It’s “do-or-die” for the Cowboys this weekend, who will almost assuredly be out of the running with a loss to division leader Philadelphia tonight. The Eagles are 8-1 and look primed for a playoff push, but I think the team has a letdown here. Chemistry is difficult to build and often a “bye” week can actually be detrimental to a team which had been firing on cylinders for weeks heading into its break. Dallas is banged up without many key pieces on both sides of the ball missing, but it still has a Top 10 QB in Dak Prescott and an elite offensive line. The run game has taken a hit with Ezekiel Elliot’s suspension, but the defense also remains a strength of the team. On paper, clearly Carson Wentz and company are the better team right now. But I’m not throwing in the towel yet on Prescott. With their season in the balance, I like the Cowboys to at the very least, keep this one competitive unitl the final moments. Grab the points.
|11-17-17||Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky +3.5||Top||38-41||Win||100||120 h 16 m||Show|
10* CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE YEAR on Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers need one more win to become bowl eligible and they’ll be risking life and limb today as they try to achieve that, while also snapping an untimely three-game slide. MTSU also needs one more win to become eligible, but it comes in on the other end of the mental spectrum, having won two straight, most recently 35-21 victory at Charlotte. With a much more “winnable” game at home against ODU to finish the campaign, the Blue Raiders could be caught looking ahead and have a letdown here. Last week WKU QB White looked sharp, finishing 28 of 41 for 334 yards, three TD’s and a pick. I look for White to build off that performance and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points as I look for the desperate home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.
|11-16-17||Buffalo v. Ball State +17.5||Top||40-24||Win||100||95 h 28 m||Show|
10* THURSDAY ROAST on Ball State. Buffalo will need to win two straight to become bowl eligible. A game at lowly Ball State is just what the doctor ordered in Game 1. However, with a road game at league-leading Ohio next weekend, I think the Bulls are going to stumble here as they caught looking ahead. I’m not calling for the outright upset or anything, but 2-8 Ball State will look to play spoiler and notch another victory in front of the home town crowd. On paper, clearly the Bulls are the better team. However, there’s no question that the overall situation favors the underdog here (the Bulls are 1-2 ATS in their last three as a road fav.) Grab as many points as you can and expect a competitive affair. Play on Ball State.
|11-15-17||Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -3||Top||27-24||Loss||-115||72 h 58 m||Show|
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE on Miami Ohio. Miami Ohio needs to win its final two games of the year to become bowl eligible. With this game against 3-7 Eastern Michigan and 2-8 Ball State to close the campaign, the odds are actually in the Redhawks favor. But one thing at a time, up first are the Eagles. EMU has nothing to play for other than spoiler, as it lost for the seventh time in eight games in a 42-30 setback at CMU last Wednesday. The Redhawks come in on the other end of the spectrum, surging towards the finish line after winning for the second time in the last three games in a 24-14 home victory over Akron last Tuesday. Miami Ohio has domianted this series as well, winning nine straight, including a 28-15 road victory last October 29th. The Redhawks are the better team and they’re firing on all cylinders. They also won’t be lacking in motivation. Playing spoiler can only motivate a team so much and I simply don’t see that being enough for the Eagles in the end. Lay the points, Redhawks roll.
|11-14-17||Central Michigan v. Kent State +17.5||Top||42-23||Loss||-110||48 h 8 m||Show|
10* ANNIHILATOR on Kent State. Kent State is horrible. It’s 2-8 (lost 48-20 to WMU in its latest action.) The only thing that the Golden Flashes have to play for today is pride. Central Michigan is decent, it’s 6-5. The Chips became bowl eligible in last week’s 42-30 win at EMU last week and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Kent State was blown out by WMU last weekend, but it will look to take advantage of a content Chips’ team and try to score the upset in its final home game of the year (at Akron next week.) I’ll point out, that while the Golden Flashes once again struggled offensively last week, the defense was in fact pretty decent, allowing 389 yards and limiting the Broncos to 3 of 15 on third downs (note that four of WMU’s TD’s were defensive.) Grab as many points as you can as Kent State delivers the solid cover with this ample spread.
|11-13-17||Dolphins +10 v. Panthers||Top||21-45||Loss||-135||35 h 23 m||Show|
10* ANNIHILATOR on Miami Dolphins. Carolina and Cam Newton in particular are both known for having “letdowns.” Other than two years ago when the Panthers made it to the Super Bowl, Netwon’s career in the NFL has showcased a ton of talent, but the lack of motivation to get over the hump at times. With their bye-week on deck, followed by two tough road games at the Jets and New Orleans, followed by home games against Minnesota, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and finishing off at Atlanta, there’s no question that this sets up as a letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. Miami QB Jay Cutler returned in last week’s loss to Oakland and looked brilliant, going 32 of 42 for 311 yards, three TD’s and no picks. The Fish only rank 31st in the league in total yards per game with 270.2, but the defense has been a strength, allowing only 315.4. The Panthers ranks 21st in total yards with 313.1 YPG, while ranked first in total yards allowed with 274.1. Carolina gets caught flat-footed and Cutler keeps his team competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.
|11-09-17||Seahawks -5.5 v. Cardinals||Top||22-16||Win||100||59 h 36 m||Show|
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are coming off a humbling 17-14 loss at home against the Redskins and will be eager to get back into the winners column after giving up the go-ahead TD with under a minute left to go in that one. The Cards mustered enough to beat the hapless 49ers 20-10 on the road last week with Drew Stanton under center, but clearly he’s going to have his hands full with Seattle’s top notched defensive unit. Seahawks’ kicker Blair Walsh uncharacteristically missed three FG’s in the first half from inside the 50 last week. The Hawks also uncharacteristically commited 16 penalties for 138 yards. QB Russell Wilson finished 24 of 45 for 297 yards, two TD’s and two picks. Overall Seattle ranks fourth in total offense with 378.6 YPG, while ranked 13th on the defensive side in allowing 322.5. Arizona averages 337.5 YPG and allows 349.8. Last week Arizona RB Adrian Peterson rushed 37 times for 159 yards. The defense was decent, but it did allow CJ Beathard to throw for 294 yards, while Stanton finished with 201 yards, two TD’s and a pick. The Seahawks have issues, there’s no question about it. On their offensive line, at RB and now with Earl Thomas gone from the secondary. But Seattle does have a Top 10 QB in Wilson. Stanton looked decent last Sunday, but I believe he takes a step back on the short week. Seahawks roll.
|11-09-17||North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -9||Top||34-31||Loss||-115||98 h 45 m||Show|
10* ROAST on Pittsburgh. UNC is 1-8 and has nothing to play for. Playing “spoiler” can only motivate a team so far and I don’t think the Tar Heels are going to muster enough of it to compete with the Panthers, who still seek one last win to become bowl eligible. UNC most recently fell 24-19 to No. 8 Miami last week. Tar Heels’ No. 1 QE Chazz Suratt was injured early and backup Nathan Elliot threw one TD and three picks in his place. The Panthers enter on the other end of the spectrum as they are off a 31-14 victory over Virginia. QB Ben DiNucci had an unspectacular 134 yards, but Pittsburgh looked great defensively and on special teams, as Quadree Anderson returned a 75-yard punt for a TD. The best thing you can say about Tar Heel football this year is that basketball season is just around the corner. I expect UNC to throw in the white towel early in this one. Panthers roll.
|11-07-17||Akron v. Miami-OH -4.5||Top||14-24||Win||100||48 h 17 m||Show|
10* BLOWOUT on Miami Ohio. Akron needs just one more win to become bowl eligible (5-4), but Miami will need to run the table if it has any shot at a bowl berth. The Zips enter off a 21-20 win over Buffalo, while the Redhawks fell to Ohio 45-28 on Halloween. Note that this is a revenge game for Miami Ohio after it lost 35-13 at Akron last year. Akron is averaging just 331.1 YPG and allowing 444.2. The Zips lost one of their leading playmakers in Warren Ball early in October, but have still managed to find ways to win lately. But I think that changes this weekend. The Redhawks average 392.8 YPG and allows 365.9. QB Billy Bhal was 28 of 51 for 350 yards, three TD’s and two picks last week and I think he’ll have his chances today against this suspect Akron secondary. Both teams need a win, however I think the pressure is on Akron here as it gets caught looking ahead to its game against conference leading Ohio at home next week. Lay the points.
|11-05-17||Bucs +7 v. Saints||Top||10-30||Loss||-110||125 h 12 m||Show|
10* GAME OF YEAR on Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you’ve followed me for any length of time then you know that I consider myself one of the best in locating teams which are more “motivated” than their opponents. Divisional contests are always emotional and mean a lot to both sides for obvious reasons, but in this case I simply feel that the Saints are going to be caught complacent here after five straight victories. This is essentially a “do-or-die” for the 2-5 Bucs as well, who would then officially be looking ahead to next season with a loss today. Tampa isn’t going to roll over. Besides, New Orleans’ last two victories have been less than impressive, winning in Green Bay against Brent Hundley, before then having to hold on for a 20-12 win over Mitch Trubisky and the Bears last weekend. Tampa simply couldn’t get anything going against the Panthers in last Sunday’s 17-3 home loss. QB Jameis Winston had an uncharacterstically difficult time, finishing 21 of 38 for 210 yards, zero TD’s and two INT’s. WR Mike Evans though was decent with 60 yards on five catches and he should be able to have a much more productive day against the Saints’ secondary. Clearly it won’t be easy in facing Drew Brees. Note though that the veteran has been showing some signs of slowing down already as he was just 23 of 28 for 299 yards and no TD’s last week. Note the Brees struggled in two games against Tampa as well last year, posting a 1:3 TD:INT. As I mentioned off the top, I believe that Tampa is the much more motivated side and I expect it to play like it this afternoon. Winston hasn’t forgotten how to play football and he still has plenty of weapons to utilize. The Saints are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, but if looked at a little closer, it appears as if New Orleans is getting the job done with smoke and mirrors. Should be a nail-biter, I’m grabbing the points.
|11-04-17||Hawaii +7.5 v. UNLV||Top||23-31||Loss||-115||74 h 22 m||Show|
10* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii. A couple of desperate 3-5 teams from the Mountain West collide on Saturday night. Hawaii has lost five of its last six, most recently falling 28-7 at home to SDSU last Saturday. UNLV looks set for a letdown here though after its 26-16 upset win over Fresno State on the road last Saturday. Hawaii holds the all time series lead 12-10, but UNLV has taken two straight, including a nail-biting 41-38 road win last October. Hawaii was unable to contain SDSU’s Rashaad Penny, who had a huge game last weekend. Overall Hawaii ranks 89th in scoring with 25.1 PPG, while ranked 107th in scoring defense in allowing 34.6. Warriors’ QB Dru Brown has 1,976 passing yards and a 13:7 TD:INT. UNLV averages 30 PPG and allows 33.6. Rebels’ QB Armani Rodgers is a poor 1,063 yards with a 5:4 TD:INT (does have 535 rushing yards and six scores on the ground.) But after last weekend’s big win over the Bulldogs, a victory which snapped Fresno State’s perfect conference mark, I believe UNLV has a predictable letdown here. I also believe that Brown can match pace with Rodgers down the stretch. Grab the points.
|11-03-17||UCLA v. Utah -6.5||Top||17-48||Win||100||55 h 45 m||Show|
10* FIST-FIGHT on Utah. Both teams are struggling and each is desperate to reach the six-win mark, as both sit with a record of 4-4 currently. The Utes opened the season with four straight victories, but they’ve now dropped four in a row, most recently a 41-20 setback to Oregon. UCLA is just 2-4 in its last six, most recently succumbing 44-23 to Washington. In that game, QB Drew Rosen left in the third frame with an injury and he’s doubtful for this one (if he does manage to suit up, clearly he’s not going to be at 100%.) UCLA owns the worst run defense in the league, giving up an enormous 307.1 YPG this year. Last week the Huskies posted 333. UCLA backup QB Devon Modster was serviceable in Rosen’s replacement, but clearly he’s going to have his hands full today if he’s forced into the start. Utah can empahthize. Last week the Utes gave up 347 yards to the Ducks on the ground. Utah QB Tyler Huntley was 25 of 43 for 293 yards, two TD’s, but was sacked four times. Utah has problems in all three phases, but UCLA is in serious trouble now with the injury to Rosen. I think this is the perfect opponent for Huntley and the Utes to get untracked against. Utah rolls.
|11-02-17||Bills -3 v. Jets||Top||21-34||Loss||-105||34 h 34 m||Show|
10* ROAST on Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is on a mission at 5-2, sitting just a 1/2 game back of first place in the tough AFC East. The Bills just smoked Oakland 34-14 at home last Sunday and I think the team is once again being underestimated in this matchup. Admittedly, the Jets have surprised me this year with their competitiveness, but the team has now dropped three straight and it has to be completely devastated after stumbling 25-20 at home to the Falcons last weekend (after having a late lead.) In the first matchup of the year between the teams, Buffalo pretty much controlled all three phases and came away with the convincing 21-12 victory at home back on September 10th. LeSean McCoy, Tyrod Taylor and the rest of the Bills’ offense have only gotten better since then. McCoy was dominant in last week’s win, posting 151 yards on 27 carries with a score. Josh McCown has been a revalation for the Jets this year, as he has 1,840 passing yards, 12 TD’s (but also seven picks.) Somehow though he’s kept his team competitive despite the Jets owning the 26th ranked defense (361.4 YPG given up) and the 23rd-ranked offense (307.9 YPG.) This is an important divisional matchup, but Buffalo is the correct call here. The Bills are playing with a “chip on their shoulders” right now and it definitely appears as if New York has run out of gas at this point. Buffalo rolls.
|10-28-17||San Jose State v. BYU -13||Top||20-41||Win||100||103 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on BYU (10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK). Enough is enough. The Cougars badly need a victory and the Spartans should provide them the perfect opportunity to get one. Since playing a 'neutral' site game (not really!) at the Superdome against LSU, the Cougars' home games have come against Utah, Wisconsin and Boise State. Needless to say, all three of those teams are far stronger than SJ State. The Spartans have lost their four road games by an average score of 47 to 13.7 and they've been outgained in those games by an average of 530.7 yards to 350 yards. The Spartans are just 5-11 ATS (1-15 SU) the past 16 times that they were road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Expect the Cougars to take out their frustrations on Saturday afternoon, bouncing back with a convincing blowout win.
|10-27-17||Florida State -3 v. Boston College||Top||3-35||Loss||-105||120 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Obviously, the Seminoles are not having the type of season that they were hoping for. Prior to the season beginning, few would have expected them to have half as many victories as Boston College, at this stage of the season. This should be an excellent spot for the Noles to get back on track though, while showing the ESPN audience that they're not as bad as their record indicates. Note that FSU is 2-0 SU/ATS against the Eagles the past two seasons, winning by a combined score of 59-7.
While the Noles have thrived as small road favorites over the years, the Eagles have struggled as small home underdogs. Overall, the Eagles are just 5-12 ATS their last 17 home games. Off their loss vs. Louisville, note the Noles are a perfect 7-0 SU the last seven times that they were off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way.
|10-26-17||Toledo v. Ball State +26.5||Top||58-17||Loss||-110||74 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on BALL STATE (10* BEST BET). With all due respect to Toledo, which has admittedly been playing pretty well, I feel that this pointspread is too high. The Rockets, who could easily get caught looking past the Cardinals ahead to Northern Illinois, have yet to win a road game by more than 20 points. Speaking of not winning by more than 20, note that the Rockets were laying -20 (at Toledo) for last year's game but won by 19. The previous season, when the teams played here, the game was decided by 14 points. While Ball State has struggled of late, it has still won two of its three home games. Last week's home loss came on the heels of a bye and after they'd just played three straight on the road. With no travel in between games, for the first time since a 28-13 victory on 9/13, expect the Cards to show some pride, giving their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting.
|10-23-17||Redskins +4.5 v. Eagles||Top||24-34||Loss||-110||146 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Eagles won when these teams played at Washington earlier. I expect a much better effort from the revenge-minded Redskins in Monday's rematch. The Skins are 2-0 SU/ATS here the past couple of seasons, 14-9-2 ATS their last 25 here. While they did fail to cover at KC a couple of weeks ago, the Skins are still a healthy 5-2 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. In fact, they've thrived in that role for years, going 43-25 ATS their last 68. The Skins are also 5-2 ATS their past seven, when playing on the road with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. Meanwhile, during the same span, the Eagles are just 3-5 ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the same range. Since losing outright at KC, the Eagles have seen three of their last four decided by five or less, two of those decided by a field goal or less. In what could well be another close one, I'm grabbing all the points I can get.