|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams UNDER 57||Top||13-3||Win||100||200 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA/NE UNDER the total. The two games in championship rd averaged 63.5 points. That makes it seem as if both games were very high-scoring. That wasn't the case though; those games were far more defensive in nature than that average indicates. The Saints game produced 49 points, 46 in regulation. Though relatively high-scoring to a "regular" NFL game, that was still enough to stay well below the total. Meanwhile, the Pats combined with the Chiefs for a whopping 68 points. That was a very misleading final though as the score was 14-0 into the second half and 17-7 into the fourth quarter. In other words, both defenses were arguably better than they're being given credit for. The UNDER is 1-0 when the Rams were underdogs and 11-6 when the Pats were favored. With the UNDER also at 4-1 when the Pats were off a game in which they allowed 30 or more points, look for the final combined score to stay beneath the generously high number.
W/ BONUS FIRST HALF PLAY: I’m playing on LA for the first half. While I successfully played against them in the first half of the Saints game, I like the Rams to get off to a quick start in this one. Admittedly, they're a bit fortunate to be here. That doesn't mean that they're not the better team though. Much has changed since Brady and Goff met two years ago, a 26-10 win for the Patriots. Both QBs have gotten older, a good thing for Goff's development but not necessarily for Brady. Goff had Gurley back then. However, he also had Jeff Fisher (tied for most reg. season losses in NFL history) coaching him and nearly everything else has changed, too. The Rams are stronger across the board then they were. The same cannot necessarily be said of the Pats. The Rams averaged 32.4 ppg this season, the Pats averaged 28.6. While not many will make mention of it, I believe that the environment (stadium) helps LA and I like that the Rams are coming off a game in New Orleans as compared to the Patriots coming off a very cold game at Arrowhead. The Aaron Donald factor on defense needs to be mentioned; he can and does change games. It also needs to be noted that the Rams were a perfect 4-0 against the AFC this season, including wins against the Chiefs and Chargers, the two teams that N.E. beat to get here. Look for the Rams to jump off to a quick start Sunday.
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 55.5||Top||37-31||Loss||-109||130 h 57 m||Show|
I'm playing on New England/KC UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). When you think of a Brady/Mahomes matchup, most will immediately think of an offensive shootout. Not so fast. The Chiefs are off an absolutely dominant defensive effort. The Colts could do nothing against them until late. While the Pats game against SD was high-scoring, they'd previously allowed 3, 12 and 17 points in their previous three games, all of which finished below the total. The UNDER is 17-7 the Pats' last 24 road games and that includes a 7-2 UNDER mark in road games when the O/U line was 49.5 or higher. Expect frigid temperatures to help in keeping this one lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|01-13-19||Eagles v. Saints OVER 50.5||Top||14-20||Loss||-100||131 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on Philly/NO OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). While I won with the Eagles 'under' last round, that was at Chicago, against a defensive-minded Bears team. A showdown with Sean Payton's Saints, at New Orleans, is an entirely different matter; I'm expect a considerably higher-scoring affair. When these teams met in the regular season, they combined for 55 points, a 48-7 destruction in favor of the Saints. Even with the 55 points scored, the final score stayed below the total, as the O/U line for that game was a high 56.5. Needless to say, we're working with a much lower number here. I feel thats providing outstanding value.
Even factoring in last week's result, the OVER remains a healthy 8-3 the last 11 times that the Eagles were listed as road underdogs, 15-7 their last 22 on the road overall. The Eagles know that they're going to need to score a lot more points to keep up with the Saints, who average more then 34 ppg here, than they needed to beat Chicago. It hasn't happened often through the years but is worth mentioning the OVER is 2-0 the past two times that the Eagles attempted to avenge a road loss of 28 or more points. The OVER is also 6-2 the past eight times that the Eagles were off a SU win as an underdog.
Even with the earlier 55-point game staying below the total, the Saints have seen the OVER go 16-9 their last 25 here. The Saints have also seen the OVER go 15-8 their past 23 in the month of January, a 3-0 OVER mark in January the past couple of years. The Saints will put up a fairly big number, as per usual. This time, however, expect the Eagles to also be far more effective on offense than they were here earlier meeting, leading to the combined final scoring finishing above the number.
|01-12-19||Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 49.5||Top||22-30||Loss||-109||54 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on Dallas/LA UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Given how well both defenses are playing right now, I believe that this total is generously high. The Cowboys rank in the top 10 of nearly all the main defensive categories. Meanwhile, the Rams held three of their final five opponents to less than 17 points. On offense, its no secret that both teams are going to lean heavily on their ground game. These are to of the best backs in the business and both teams rank in the top 10 in the league, in terms of total rush attempts per game. As you know, frequent running plays help to keep the clock moving. The Cowboys have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 17-7 on the road the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the UNDER is also 12-5 when Dallas was coming off a home win. The UNDER is also 13-6 over that time, when the Cowboys were off two or more consecutive wins. That includes a 2-0 UNDER mark when Dallas was off two or more consecutive wins of six or fewer points. Look for those stats to improve, the final combined score again proving lower than most will be expecting.
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson OVER 59||Top||16-44||Win||100||150 h 9 m||Show|
I'm playing on Clemson/Alabama OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). I won with Clemson (plus the points) AND the 'over' when these teams met on 1/11/16. In 2017, I stayed away from the 'side' but again won with the 'over.' Last season, I switched things up, winning with both Alabama and the 'under.' (Alabama won 24-6.) This year, I'm coming right back with the OVER. Prior to last season's 30-point affair, the games the two previous years had produced 85 and 66 combined points, respectively. Yet, despite both teams coming off an 'under' last week and despite last season's 'defensive battle,' this is the highest O/U line of any of the four meetings. There's a good reason for that. While the defenses remain stout, these offenses are both extremely capable of putting up big numbers. The Tigers average 44.3 ppg. The Tide average 47.7. Speaking of the O/U line being the highest of any of the Clemson games; the Tide have seen the OVER go a perfect 7-0 this season, when playing a game where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. Expect some offensive fireworks.
|01-06-19||Eagles v. Bears UNDER 41||Top||16-15||Win||100||144 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on Philly/Chicago UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Strong all season, the Bears' defense is peaking at the right time. The last four games Chicago allowed 10, 9, 17 and 6 points. Opponents included the Vikings, Packers and Rams; teams normally capable of scoring. The Bears' 17.7 ppg allowed ranked #1 in the NFL. The Eagles held the Bears to three points last season and they're also counting on their defense to lead them to an upset. Last time out, they didn't allow a single point, a 24-0 win over Washington. While both teams are going to want to run, both these teams are very capable at stropping the run. Only seven teams allow less than 100 rushing yards per game and these are two of them. The Bears rank #1 at 79.9 ypg, the Eagles rank #7 at 96.9 rushing yards allowed per game. The UNDER was 2-0 this season when the Bears played a home game with an O/U line ranging from 38.5 to 42. Expect those stats to improve Sunday evening.
|01-01-19||Texas v. Georgia UNDER 59||Top||28-21||Win||100||24 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on Texas/Georgia UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Its true that Georgia was involved in a few high-scoring games to close out the season. However, the opposite was true of Texas. The Longhorns enter this game off three consecutive games which stayed below the total. In fact, all three stayed below the number by double-digits. Even with one of those opponents being Oklahoma, those three games averaged 47 combined points. The UNDER is now 25-13 in all Texas games the past few seasons, 10-4 when the Longhorns were listed as underdogs. Obviously, the Bulldogs are an elite team with a talented offense and QB. They're still primarily a running based attack though, which leads to them running fewer plays per game than the majority of the opponents that Texas is used to facing. (Georgia ranks 101st nationally with 67.9 plays per game.) On the other side, the Longhorns know that they need to get their own ground game going to help churn up the clock and keep the Bulldogs on the sideline. Sure, Georgia will be without star defensive back Deandre Baker. However, this is still the best secondary that Texas will have gone up against. The last two Sugar Bowls produced an average of just 42 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
|12-31-18||Missouri v. Oklahoma State UNDER 75||Top||33-38||Win||100||213 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on Missouri and Oklahoma State UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). The mere mention of these teams has many immediately thinking shootout. I'm not one of them. Sure, we'll see some points but ultimately I believe that the O/U number will prove to be too high. The Missouri defense comes in full of confidence. The Tigers allowed ZERO points in their last game, a 38-0 win. They allowed 28 or fewer points in their final five games, 17 or less in four of those. Overall, they allowed an average of less than 16 ppg in those five. The Cowboys returned seven starters on the defensive side of the ball and were projected to have their best defense since 2013. Of course, when playing against the likes of Oklahoma and WVU, you're going to give up some points. The Cowboys' last game came against TCU; that one produced 'only' 55 combined points. Note that the Cowboys offense, which returned five starters from last year's team, will be without Justice Hill, a very key loss. Mike Gundy tends to get the most from his defense in the bowls. The Cowboys' last five bowl games have produced 72, 52, 68, 46 and 51 combined points. In the last two of those, the Cowboy defense allowed just eight and 21 points. With the UNDER at 7-1 the last eight times that the Cowboys were listed as neutral field underdogs, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|12-24-18||Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 45||Top||14-27||Win||100||176 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on Denver/Oakland UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). While the Raiders have seen four of their past five games finish above the total, the Broncos have been going the other way. In fact, they've now seen their last seven games stay below the number. They snuck below a high number against the Chiefs back in late October. Since then, all six of their games have finished with 45 or fewer points. The last three of those all produced 34 or less. That said, I believe this number is generously high. The Broncos are going to want to get their ground game going, which will help to chew up the clock. However, the Raiders shut down the Steeler ground game, holding Pitt. to 40 rushing yards and 21 points overall, their last game here. Including the Steeler game, the Raiders have seen the UNDER go 6-3 their last nine as home underdogs. During the same span, the Broncos have seen the UNDER go 7-3 as road favorites. The last four meetings have all produced less than 40 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
|12-22-18||Houston v. Army OVER 59||14-70||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on Houston/Army OVER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). With Houston's starting QB out for this game, the O/U line dropped considerably. I expect both teams to score plenty of points and feel that the lower O/U line is providing excellent value. To say that these offenses are opposite of each other would be accurate. Army leads the nation in time of possession. Houston is last in the country in that category. That hasn't prevented the Cougars from averaging 46.4 ppg though, fourth best in the country. The Cougars also rank high in numerous other offensive categories. QB Clayton Tune got a game under his belt, throwing for three TDs and has had plenty of time to prepare. On the other side, Army will put up a big number against a porous Houston defense, one which will be missing All-American defensive tackle Ed Oliver, which gave up 36 or more points in five of its final six games, more than 50 in two of its last three. Expect some fireworks.
|12-20-18||Marshall v. South Florida UNDER 51.5||Top||38-20||Loss||-110||13 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on Marshall/USF UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Marshall hasn't scored more than 30 points since managing 31 back in October. The Herd can play quality defense though, as they held three of their last six opponents to fewer than 14 points. Off a blowout loss against V-Tech in a makeup game, I expect the Herd to show us that quality defense tonight. Note that the UNDER is 6-2 the last eight times that they had allowed 37 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds the UNDER at 16-7 when the Herd were off a road loss of 21 or more points. 24-11 when off a loss of 17 or more overall. In other words, off the type of effort they gave vs. V-Tech, the Herd historically bounce back with a much better defensive effort. Facing a USF team which managed only 10 points last time and which has now scored 23 or less in four straight, 17 or less in three of those, will help. The UNDER is 15-4 over the years, when the Bulls find themselves having lost five, or six, of their previous seven. With the UNDER also at 8-2 the last 10 times that the Bulls were off three or more consec. conference losses, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair.
|12-18-18||Northern Illinois v. UAB OVER 42.5||13-37||Win||100||33 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on UAB/NIU to finish OVER the total (8* BEST BET). While I respect both defenses, I believe this number will prove to be too low. As NIU fans know, this bowl has historically been high-scoring. The Huskies also represented the MAC in 2014, the inaugural game of the Boca Raton Bowl. That year, they combined with Marshall, the CUSA champ that year, for 85 points. The 2015 game appeared destined to be low-scoring, as there were only 15 points at halftime. However, things opened up in the second half and the final combined score was 49. In 2016, a whopping 82 points were scored. Last season, 53 points were scored, FAU scoring 50 of those themselves. In other words, in the history of this bowl, they've never scored fewer than 49 points. Of course, thats all 'ancient history.' However, these are also more than capable of exceeding tonight's low number. NIU's last game produced 59 points and that was on the heels of a 49-point game. UAB's last game produced 52 combined points; four of the Blazers last five games produced a minimum of 49 combined points. While UAB had trouble finishing above the higher numbers, the OVER is when the Blazers played a game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. Expect those stats to improve, tonight's final combined score proving higher than many will be expecting.
|12-15-18||Texans v. Jets UNDER 41.5||29-22||Loss||-110||97 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on Houston/NY UNDER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). Off last week's loss to the Colts, expect the Texans to get back to their "defensive roots" this week. Coach O'Brien said: "It's probably not going to be great weather. But our guys are going to be ready to go." His top defenders are all on board and I expect them to be at their best. J.J. Watt had this to say: "Now we have to get back to work." Cornerback Jonathan Joseph commented: "But I'm definitely sure the type of team we are. We responded from 0 and 3, so we're definitely going to respond after this loss here with bigger things at stake going forward." Meanwhile safety Tyrann Mathieu added: "We just gotta do a great job of showing up..." Note that the UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons, when the Texans were off a divisional home loss. During the same span the UNDE Ris 3-0 after the Texans shad covered in five or six of their last seven. (They're now 5-2 ATS their L7.) Add to that combined perfect 5-0 mark a 9-2 UNDER mark for the Texans in December and you've got a combined 14-2 UNDER angle. On the other side, the UNDER is 5-2 during the same period, when the Jets were off an upset win as an underdog. Expect a low-scoring affair.
|12-13-18||Chargers v. Chiefs OVER 53||Top||29-28||Win||100||61 h 42 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA/KC OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Needless to say, both these teams can score plenty of points. They combined for 66 in this season's earlier meeting, a 38-28 KC victory, back in early September. Including that result, the Chargers are averaging 28.2 ppg on the season. Over their past three games, that number climbs to 34.7 ppg. As impressive as those numbers are, they still pale in comparison to the Chiefs. KC is averaging 36.2 ppg on the season and 39.3 ppg over its past three. The Chargers have already seen the OVER go 3-0 as road underdogs of seven or less. Expect those stats to improve Thursday.
|12-10-18||Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 46.5||Top||7-21||Win||100||28 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on Minnesota/Seattle to finish UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). With all due respect to the offenses, this O/U line is generously high. While its true that Seattle has been involved in some high-scoring games of late, the opposite is true of Minnesota. The Vikings have seen back-to-back games (and four of their last five) fall below the total. Those games were against the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, yet both finished with 41 or fewer combined points. The Vikes have seen seven of their past 10 December games stay below the total. The've also seen the UNDER go 10-5 the last 15 times that they were listed as underdogs. As for the recent high-scoring Seattle games, the Hawks haven't faced a defense as good as this one for awhile. Minnesota has allowed only six runs of 15 or more yards in 2018. That was tied for the fewest in the NFL, enetering this week's play. The Viking defense has also held opponents to a third-down conversion rate of 29.9%, the best mark in the NFL entering the weekend. These teams last met in 2016. The score was 3-0 at halftime and finished with a final of 10-9. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
|12-08-18||Navy v. Army OVER 39.5||10-17||Loss||-110||76 h 42 m||Show|
I'm playing on Army/Navy OVER the total (8* BEST BET). These teams have had a recent history of low-scoring games, a longstanding run of 'unders.' I say that the streak comes to an end this year though. None of the recent games between these teams have had an O/U line this low. In fact, I looked all the way back to 1995 and none of them were this low. Series history notwithstanding, I feel that its too low. Navy's games have finished with 100, 43, 73, 61, 42, 41, 85, 66, 42, 59, 66 and 57 combined points. Notice that ALL TWELVE GAMES produced a minimum of 41 points. As for Army, nine of its 10 games produced at least 42 combined points. One difference between this year's game and other recent games is that Army is now the favorite, instead of Navy. The OVER is 14-6 the last 20 times that the Knights were laying points. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon
|12-06-18||Jaguars v. Titans OVER 37||9-30||Win||100||57 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on Jacksonville/Tennessee OVER the total (8* MAIN EVENT). Everyone saw the Jags defense "pitch a shutout" against the Colts last week. That 3-0 final has helped lead to a very low O/U line for Thursday night's game. (Recent meetings between these teams have had O/U lines of 39.5, 40.5, 41, 44.5 and 43.5.) With all due respect to the defenses, I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Titans have seen six straight games produce a minimum of 39 combined points. The last five of those have all finished with 42 or more, the last three all with 48 or more. While the Jags' defensive performance was certainly impressive, note that the OVER is 32-15 over the years when the Jags had held their previous opponent to single-digits, 7-2 the last nine. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting.
|12-03-18||Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5||Top||13-28||Win||100||37 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on Washington/Philly UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). This O/U number has risen from its opener and I feel its offering excellent value. The Eagles have seen the UNDER go 9-4 the past 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites of seven or fewer points. That includes a perfect 4-0 UNDER mark in that role this season. Five of their six home games have fallen below the number. Expect a relatively heavy dose of the run from both teams, helping to chew up the clock and keep the final combined score below the generous number once again.
|12-01-18||Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 61.5||Top||24-45||Win||100||12 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on NW/OSU OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). With all due respect to the NW defense, this line is too low. The Buckeyes scored 62 points against a "stingy" Michigan team last time out. Their previous game, they dropped 52 on Maryland. Both games produced more than 100 combined points. Expect the OVER to improve to 8-4 the last 12 times that OSU was favored in the -10.5 to -21 range.
|11-26-18||Titans v. Texans UNDER 43||Top||17-34||Loss||-110||4 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on Tennesee/Houston UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Sometimes, you need to be a little patient. I knew that I liked the 'under' in this game, at a number of 41 or greater. However, I was pretty certain that if I waited, the number had a good chance of climbing all the way to 43. As of this writing, thats the case at several books. As I'm expecting a low-scoring affair, I feel that number is generously high. Three of the last four have finished at 41 or less and each of the last two meetings produced exactly 37 points. Tennessee road games averaging 36 ppg on the season and the UNDER is 7-1 in eight games against AFC opposition. More of the same here.
|11-25-18||Giants v. Eagles UNDER 48.5||Top||22-25||Win||100||4 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on Philly/NY UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 46 and they combined for 47. While I'm expecting a lower combined final score this afternoon, we're working with a slightly higher O/U number. In my opinion, with games here averaging just 39 points on the season, thats offering us excellent value. The UNDER is 7-3 the past 10 times that the Eagles were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range, a perfect 3-0 this season. More of the same here.
|11-24-18||Notre Dame v. USC OVER 54||Top||24-17||Loss||-109||106 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on ND/USC OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). As you know, this is a huge game.Notre Dame, facing its biggest rival, finishes undefeated with a victory. However, as Brian Kelley noted: "Playing there is never easy..." I feel that the O/U line is going to prove to be too low. The Trojans have scored a minimum of 27 points in five of their last six games; they're average 32.4 ppg at home. Notre Dame, meanwhile, averages a whopping 44 ppg and an impressive 513 ypg, when playing on the road. Last year's game produced 63 points. The year before, the last time that ND played here, the teams combined for 72. Expect the OVER to improve to 8-2 the last 10 times the the Irish were laying points on the road.
|11-22-18||Redskins v. Cowboys UNDER 41||Top||23-31||Loss||-110||76 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on Dallas/Washington UNDER the total. I like how both these defenses are currently playing. Off a 22-19 win at Atlanta, the Cowboys have now allowed 20 points or less in five of their last six games. Note that the UNDER is 11-3-1 the last 15 times that Dallas was off b2b SU wins. Also, the UNDER is 9-3 the last dozen times that the Cowboys were playing with "revenge." While the Skins allowed Houston to score 23 against them last week, they'd previously allowed 17 or fewer points in four of their last five. The Skins were already running a fairly conservative offense and that figures to be even more the case with Alex Smith going down to injury. Three of their four road games have fallen below the total. This season's earlier meeting was tied 7-7 at halftime and finished with a final score of 20-17. Expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams to keep the clock moving and to lead to another low-scoring affair.
|11-18-18||Vikings v. Bears UNDER 45.5||Top||20-25||Win||100||108 h 57 m||Show|
I'm playing on Minnesota/Chicago UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Last season's meetings had O/U lines of 41 and 38 and produced 37 and 33 combined points. Minnesota's trip here in 2016 also stayed below the total, finishing with just 30 combined points. While many of the faces are now different, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. Over their past three games, the Bears are allowing a mere 13.7 ppg on just 258.7 yards per game. In terms of yards allowed, the Vikes have been even stingier. They're allowing an average of only 247.3 ypg their past three games, opposing teams averaging 18.7 ppg. Including last season's games vs. the Bears, the Vikes have seen the UNDER go 10-4 their last 14 divisional games. During that span, they've also seen the UNDER go 9-4 when they were liste as underdogs. Expect those stats to improve Sunday night.
|11-17-18||Nevada v. San Jose State UNDER 60||Top||21-12||Win||100||78 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on Nevada/SJ State UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). The last time that Nevada played here, the O/U line was 56 but the teams combined for only 24 points, a 14-10 win for the Spartans. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. True, the Spartans got lit up for 62 points last week. However, that was at Utah State against an extremely explosive Aggie offense. Off that effort, they'll absolutely be looking to improve defensively this week. Note that the only previous time that SJSU allowed more than 50 points this season, it responded by holiding SDSU to just 16 points the next time out, a 16-13 loss in a game where the O/U line was 62. Nevada allowed just 10 points last time out and allowed only 22 its last road game, a win at Hawaii. Including that result, a game where I won with the 'under,' the Wolfpack have seen the UNDER go 11-5 their last 16 on the road. That includes a 7-3 UNDER mark in road games where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63. Expect those stats to improve Saturday.
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks UNDER 49.5||Top||24-27||Loss||-110||36 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on GB/Seattle UNDER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). A matchup of Rodgers vs. Wilson will have many expecting a shootout. Many of those probably thought the same thing when these teams met last season. The O/U line was 50 but the final combined score was only 26. This season, the Packers check in off three consecutive games which finished below the total. Last week, they won by running the ball and playing great defense. Thats largely been the formula for Seattle, too. The Hawks have run the ball a minimum of 32 times in seven straight games. As you know, a heavy dose of the run tends to keep the clock moving which in turn will often lead to lower-scoring games. While last week's game vs. the high-scoring Rams finished above the total, the UNDER is still a healthy 6-2 the Hawks' last eight games. The Hawks have only been favored three times this season. All three games stayed well below the total, producing 37, 37 and 30 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected.
|11-12-18||Giants v. 49ers OVER 44||Top||27-23||Win||100||34 h 9 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF/NYG OVER the total (10* MAIN EVENT). Its true that I won with the 'under' in the 49ers last game, a 34-3 victory over the Raiders. However, we're working with a lower number here and I expect the Giants to score considerably more than the Raiders did. As bad as things have seemingly been, the Giants are averaging a respectable 22.7 ppg on 374.7 ypg, when playing on the road. Their games on grass are averaging 56.5 ppg, both finishing above the total. Overall, their road games are averaging 47.2 ppg. Neither team is making the playoffs, so there's little reason to be conservative. The 49ers have been listed as home favorites twice this season. Both those games finished above the number, producing 46 and 57 points. Expect more of the same on Monday night.
|11-11-18||Lions v. Bears UNDER 45||Top||22-34||Loss||-110||121 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on Chicago/Detroit UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). Three of the last four meetings between these rivals have stayed below the total. All three of those 'unders' finished with 37 or fewer combined points. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. The Bears have held each of their last two opponents to 10 points or less. Though they scored 41 points, much of that was directly or indirectly from the defense. The Chicago offense managed only 190 yards and 11 first downs, in fact. As for the Lions, they managed a mere nine points themselves, last week. The previous week, they scored just 14. The Bears have seen the UNDER go 12-7-1 their last 20 home games. That includes a 3-0-1 UNDER mark in games here when the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 45. Expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon.
|11-10-18||San Jose State v. Utah State UNDER 63||Top||24-62||Loss||-109||80 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on Utah State / SJ State to finish UNDER the total (10* MWC TOTAL OF THE YEAR. As you likely know, the Utah State offense has been extremely potent all season long. Thats led to higher and higher O/U lines. I feel that this one will prove to be too high. Last week, the Aggies saw QB Jordan Love leave with a hit to the head. His status is currently up in the air. I'm going to assume that he'll play. However, with the Aggies favored by greater than four TD's, there's little reason to take any chances. Either way, the Aggies will score points, as per usual. Just not as many as most will be expecting. San Jose State is in the second year of a new defense and is slowly showing signs of improvement. The last two times that they were large underdogs (Wyoming and SDSU) they allowed only 24 and 16 points, despite being +17.5 and +25.5 point underdogs. In their lone game where they were underdogs of a similar size to what they are here (+30.5 underdogs against WSU) they allowed only 31 points, losing 31-0. The only time that they were bigger underdogs than that was at Oregon and that game stayed below the number by double-digits, too. The Spartans, who have scored less than 14 points in three of their last four, figure to have real trouble scoring; Utah State held Hawaii to 43 rushing yards on 20 carries. The UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in SJ State road games. I expect those stats to improve Sat. afternoon.
|11-06-18||Kent State v. Buffalo OVER 41||14-48||Win||100||26 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on Buffalo/KSU OVER the total (8* SUPER TOTAL). This is a very low number and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Kent State games are averaging 58.5 points this season. The Flashes' last two games saw 63 and 47 points scored. Buffalo games are averaging 58.3 combined ppg, the last one producing a whopping 93. The last meeting here had an O/U line of 42 and finished with 64 combined points. Look for this one to also be higher-scoring than many will be expecting.
|11-05-18||Titans v. Cowboys OVER 40||Top||28-14||Win||100||35 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on Tennessee/Dallas OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). This is the second lowest O/U number of Week 9; only Buffalo/Chicago was lower. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Titans, who have seen the OVER go 6-2 the past couple of Novembers, will be facing an NFC East opponent for the second time this season. Their previous game against an NFC foe (Eagles on 9/30) proved to be their highest-scoring game of the season. The Cowboys, who have seen the OVER go 6-3-1 the past 10 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range, are averaging a healthy 28.7 ppg here at home this season. Expect the OVER to improve to 4-0 the past four times that the Cowboys were coming off a bye.
|11-03-18||San Diego State v. New Mexico UNDER 48.5||Top||31-23||Loss||-118||61 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on SDSU / New Mexico UNDER the total. The Lobos got lit up last week. That was on the road against a very high-scoring Utah State team though. This week, determined to improve defensively, they'll face an entirely different type of team; they Aztecs have been winning with defense all season. Through eight games, San Diego State is averaging only 21.1 points. On the road, that number dips to 17.7. The Aztec defense permits only 19.6 ppg. The Aztecs should be able to limit the Lobos, who are averaging just 14.7 ppg and 295 ypg their last three games. Last season's game was 14-0 at halftime. The second half saw some more points but the final was still only 35-10. The Aztecs have been money for 'under' bettors on the road over the years (68-39 Under mark L107) and they've seen two of three road games fall below the number this season. More of the same Saturday night.
|11-02-18||Colorado v. Arizona OVER 59.5||34-42||Win||100||101 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on Colorado/Arizona to finish OVER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). While these teams have both been profitable for 'under' bettors, it hasn't been due to an ability to move the ball or to score points. The Buffaloes average 32 ppg and 439.6 ypg. The Wildcats average a nearly identical number of yards (441.7 ypg) while averaging 29.6 ppg. At home, that number climbs to 34.6 ppg. Colorado scored 34 last week, while allowing 41. That was the fourth straight game that the Buffaloes allowed more than 20 points. Arizona has scored 30 and 44 its last two games. Last season, these teams combined for 87 points. The season before that they combined for 73. Both games finished above the total by double-digits.
|11-01-18||Raiders v. 49ers UNDER 46.5||Top||3-34||Win||100||51 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on Oakland/SF UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Oakland is off a very high-scoring game, one of the factors helping to provide us with a generously high O/U line. A closer look shows that the Raiders were up against the Colts last week, a team which has been involved in a number of high-scoring games. That led to a high-scoring (28-42) game. However, in their two games before that, the Raiders managed only 13 combined points, losing 27-3 and 26-10. This week, they'll face a 49'er team which is banged-up at QB and which has scored just 15 and 10 points, its last two games. On the season, the Raiders are averaging just 13 ppg on the road while SF is averaging 19.3 ppg at home. Look for the final combined score to prove lower than many will be expecting.
|10-31-18||Ball State v. Toledo UNDER 66||Top||13-45||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on Toledo/Ball State to finish UNDER the total (10* O/U VIOLATOR). Its true that I won with the 'over' a couple of Toledo games this season, including last week at WMU. However, that was against a Bronco team which could trade punches with them. Tonight, the Rockets face a Cardinal team which averages only 16 ppg pn the road. Not surprisingly, three of Ball State's four road games have fallen below the total. With their opponent unable to score many points, the Rockets won't need to score as many themselves. Their last home game (vs. Buffalo two weeks ago) stayed below the number by double-digits and so did their last game here vs. Ball State. The Rockets were laying -20 for that one, a game with an O/U line of 68. The final score was 37-19. I'm expecting a similar result here.
|10-29-18||Patriots v. Bills UNDER 44.5||Top||25-6||Win||100||35 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on New England/Buffalo UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). The Pats have won a few shootouts lately and obviously have a very capable offense. They can beat you with their defense too though and this will be an ideal spot for them to remind the national audience of that fact. The Bills' offense is terrible. They average 11.6 ppg, worst in the NFL. They're second worst in total yards per game, worst in yards per play. Last time out, they made the Colts defense look dominant. Not an easy thing to do. The Bills managed a mere five points, the fourth consecutive game that they've failed to reach the 14-point mark. (A look at the Colts last five games shows that other than Buffalo, their other four opponents scored 37, 38, 42 and 28 points.) Recent high-scoring results notwithstanding, the Pats have still seen the UNDER go 10-4 their last 14 against sub-500 teams and 13-6 their last 19 on the road. Their offense is actually only averaging 22.7 ppg and 297.3 ypg on the road this season. Last season's visit here resulted in a 23-3 final. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
|10-27-18||Texas A&M v. Mississippi State OVER 43.5||Top||13-28||Loss||-109||33 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on Texas A&M / Mississippi State OVER the total (10* SEC TOTAL OF YEAR). Both teams have seen their recent games finish below the total. Those recent results have worked in our favor by providing us with an extremely low O/U line to work with, among the lowest on the Saturday board. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. While you wouldn't know it by the O/U line, the Aggies can move the ball and score points. They average 32.3 ppg and 486.7 ypg. They've faced the likes of Kentucky (12.9 ppg allowed) Clemson (13.4 ppg allowed) and Alabama (15.9 ppg allowed) yet have still scored a minimum of 20 points in every game. While the Bulldog offense has struggled of late, take a look at their last four opponents, LSU, Kentucky, Auburn and Florida. All four of those teams rank in top 15 in the country in terms of points allowed. All of them allow fewer than 17 ppg. While still respectable, the Aggie defense isn't as good as the Bulldogs' previous four opponents. In two road games, A&M is allowing an average of 34 ppg. Prior to facing those four Top 15 defenses, the Bulldogs had scored 63, 31, and 56 points. They're still averaging 37 ppg and 461 ypg through four home games. Last season's game had an O/U line of 54. The previous season, the O/U line was 60.5. Those games finished with 49 and 63 points, respectively. The Aggies have only been underdogs twice this season and both games finished above the total. More of the same Saturday.
|10-27-18||Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 50.5||17-31||Win||100||114 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on Wisconsin/NW to finish UNDER the total (8* BREAKFAST CLUB TOTAL). The Badgers' last visit here resulted in a 21-7 victory, a game which fell below the total by double-digits. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. The Wildcats were 20 point favorites last week yet managed a mere 18 points. It was the third time in their last six games that they'd scored 18 or less. The Cats rank 12th in the Big Ten in scoring, last in yards per carry and 11th in passing efficiency. Its no secret that the Badgers are going to run the ball. While stopping them won't be easy, the Cats have had success in slowing down their running attack in recent seasons. Including the game here in 2016, the UNDER is 13-4 in NW home games the past 2+ seasons. The UNDER is also 5-1 the last six times that the Badgers were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon.
|10-25-18||Dolphins v. Texans UNDER 44.5||Top||23-42||Loss||-107||60 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on Houston/Miami UNDER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). While they've had some more success at home, the Dolphins have had real difficulty moving the ball on the road. In three away games, they're averaging a mere 14.7 ppg and a paltry 242 ypg. Expect the Dolphin offense to struggle once again, as Houston is allowing an average of only 12 points and 260 yards its past three games. The Texans failed to score more than 20 in any of those games themselves. Not surprisingly, all three stayed comfortably below the number. The Texans ran the ball 37 times last game, which helped to chew up the clock. Expect another heavy dose of the run and another relatively low-scoring affair.
|10-25-18||Toledo v. Western Michigan OVER 65||Top||51-24||Win||100||73 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing Toledo/Western Michigan OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Some of you may recall that I won with the 'over' when the Rockets faced Fresno a few weeks ago. At the time, among other things, I mentioned that Toledo was the first team in NCAA history to bring back three receivers which had caught at least 10 TD passes, in a season, at some point in their career. That game ended up flying over the number, producing 76 combined points. The Rockets' next game (Bowling Green) did too, finishing with 78. Since then, however, they've seen two straight games fall below the number. Those results, combined with the fact that the Broncos are off an 'under' of their own, have kept this number lower than it easily could have been. Realistically, the number could have easily opened in the 70s, in my opinion. The Rockets defense is poor and when matched up against a capable opponent, they get lit up. They've been underdogs twice this season. Both times they gave up 49 points, while also scoring 24 or more. Both finished above the total by double-digits. In three home games, the Broncos are averaging 45.7 ppg and 511 ypg. They'll be licking their chops at the prospects of facing this defense. Averaging more than 39 ppg themselves, however, the Rockets have the ability to trade punches. Toledo's last visit here had an O/U line of 72 and finished with 90 points, a 55-35 final. Expect another shootout.
|10-21-18||Patriots v. Bears UNDER 48.5||Top||38-31||Loss||-105||16 h 42 m||Show|
I'm playing on New England/Chicago UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). With both teams off b2b 'overs,' we're getting a generously high O/U number to work with. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. The Bears defense is allowing just 13.5 ppg at home. The Pats are allowing an average of 24.7. However, that number was far lower before last week's 43-40 classic vs. KC. Note that the Pats have seen the UNDER go 13-5 on the road the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the UNDER is 11-6-1 when the Bears played at home. Expect the UNDER to improve to 35-15 the past 50 times that the Bears were home underdogs of three or fewer points.
|10-21-18||Nevada v. Hawaii UNDER 69||Top||40-22||Win||100||87 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing Nevada/Hawaii UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). We're working with a very high O/U number here and I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Nevada's last three games produced 58, 24 and 53 combined points. Allowing 31 last week wasn't as bad as it sounds, considering the opponent was Boise State and the Broncos were averaging more than 37 ppg coming in. Hawaii's last home game produced just 30 points. The Warriors' previous home game finished with 63. The last five meetings between these teams have ALL finished below the total, none of those games having a number nearly as high as this one. Those games finished with 56, 55, 50, 44 and 40 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|10-19-18||Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 62||28-56||Loss||-110||77 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on Colorado State / Boise State to finish UNDER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). Last season's game between these teams was extremely high-scoring. That was at Colorado State, however, where the Rams were able to score. That figures to be far more difficult on the road, this season. Colorado State has been held to 20 or fewer points in four of seven games. Boise State has allowed 20 or less in four of six. The UNDER is 4-0 when the Rams were underdogs. The 2016 meeting here at Boise stayed below the total with 51 points, only 10 by halfitme. Including that result, the UNDER is 8-2 in Boise's October games, the past 2+ seasons. Look for more of the same Friday.
|10-18-18||Broncos v. Cardinals UNDER 41||45-10||Loss||-103||58 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on Denver/Arizona UNDER the total (8* BEST BET). We've seen a few high-scoring "primetime" games of late. However, I expect a much different style of game on Thursday. Both these teams have seen four of their first six games finish below the number. While the Broncos D isnt as dominant as in recent years, they should have better success against a Cardinal team averaging the fewest yards of offense in the entire league. Arizona has scored 17 or fewer points in five of its six games, including each of their first three here at home. In fact, the Cards are averaging a mere 12.3 points and 232.3 yards in their three home games. Not surprisingly, all three stayed below the number. Going back further finds the UNDER at 14-5 the last 19 here. Expect those stats to improve with another low-scoring affair Thursday.
|10-14-18||Colts v. Jets UNDER 45.5||Top||34-42||Loss||-112||118 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on Indianapolis/NY to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL). This is the highest O/U line that the Jets have seen yet this season and I feel that it'll prove to be too high. While the Jets have been limited to 17 or fewer points in three of their five games, the Colts have been held to 24 or fewer points in four of their five games. Indy road games are averaging 42.6 points. New York home games are averaging 41. While the Jets have seen the UNDER go 7-3 their last 10 against sub-500 teams, the Colts have seen the UNDER go 7-3 the last 10 times that they were off two or more consecutive losses. With both teams chewing up the clock with a fairly heavy dose of the run, expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon.
|10-13-18||Wisconsin v. Michigan UNDER 48||Top||13-38||Loss||-109||106 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on Wisconsin/Michigan UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). Both teams have seen three of their past four finish above the total. Those results have helped in providing us with a relatively generous O/U line, one which I feel will prove to be too high. A look at last season's meeting, at Wisconsin, reveals that the O/U line was just 41. The most recent meeting here at Michigan was the previous season, a game which had an O/U line of 44. You may recall that each of the games finished well below the number, the home team dominating defensively in both. Last season's game was tied 7-7 at halftime and finished with a final score of 24-10. The 2016 game here at Michigan had a score of 7-0 at the break and finished at 14-7. The Badgers managed a mere eight first downs in that game, on only 159 total yards of total offense. Wisconsin did a great job of keeping Michigan to 14 too, considering that the Wolverines entered that game averaging 52 ppg. (The Wolverines would score 78 the next game, too.) While all that may be ancient history, this season's Michigan defense is every bit as talented as the 2016 one, arguably more so. Consider that the 2016 Michigan D returned six starters while this season's defense returned nine and 14 of its top 16 tacklers. A big nationally televised game gives this Michigan defense a chance to show the nation how good it really is. The Badgers have played a few pretty soft defenses and still haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard. They've seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they were listed as underdogs and I expect points to be at a premium, once again.
|10-13-18||Nebraska v. Northwestern OVER 58.5||31-34||Win||100||91 h 41 m||Show|
I'm playing on Nebraska/Northwestern OVER the total (8* BC TOTAL). The Huskers are banged up on defense, one of the reasons they're allowing a whopping 39.2 ppg and 447 ypg. In two road games, the Huskers are allowing 48.5 ppg and 512 ypg. Not surprisingly, both games finished above the number. They've now allowed 56, 41 and 42 the past three games. The Nebraska offense has been better than the defense; last time out, the Huskers had more than 500 total yards at Wisconsin, though managing just 24 points. The previous game they scored 28 against Purdue. They've been underdogs for each of their last three games, all of which finished above the total. In fact, the OVER is 13-2 the past 15 times that Nebraska was an underdog. With the OVER also 8-2 the last 10 times that the Huskers were off a conference loss, expect some fireworks on Saturday afternoon.
|10-12-18||Arizona v. Utah OVER 51||10-42||Win||100||13 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing on Arizona/Utah to finish OVER the total (8* SUPER TOTAL). The Wildcats have been kind to 'under' bettors thus far and those early results have helped to provide us with a particularly low O/U number, the lowest Arizona has seen yet. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Wildcats are averaging a whopping 562.5 yards of offense on the road, thus far. So, its not like they haven't been moving the ball. The Utes scored 40, at Stanford, last time out. At home, they're averaging 434.5 yards of offense. The Utah defense has allowed 21 or more points in three straight. Last season's meeting produced 54 points and the previous season's produced 59. Expect this one to finish above the low number.
|10-11-18||Eagles v. Giants UNDER 44||Top||34-13||Loss||-110||47 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on Philadelphia/NY to finish UNDER the total (10* BEST BET). Overall, these teams are ranking 23rd and 25th, in terms of points scored per game and 20th and 25th, in terms of yards per game. Defensively, they've both been far more respectable. The Giants are averaging only 16.5 points in their two home games. Meanwhile, the champs have yet to score more than 23 points in any of their five games and are averaging only 20.6. Both teams have been struggling and both are going to be looking to get their ground game going. Expect that to help keep the clock going and the final combined score beneath the generously high number.
|10-11-18||Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 62||17-14||Win||100||28 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on Texas Tech / TCU to finish UNDER the total (8* BEST BET). The Red Raiders have long been an offensive juggernaut while the Horned Frogs are typically known more for their defense. Playing at home, I expect the Frogs to more effectively dictate the tempo. As per usual, TCU is very stingy. The Frogs held Iowa to 14 points last time out, marking the third time through their first five games that they've allowed 14 or less. Indeed, the Raiders have been involved in some shootouts already. So, it may sound funny to suggest that they have an improved defense this season. That said, I believe that to, in fact, be the case. The Raiders' high-scoring games have come against the likes of WVU, OSU, Houston and Ole Miss. All four of those teams are in the top 22 in the country in scoring, ranking 3, 13, 16 and 22nd. Each scores considerably more than TCU. While they all score more, none of those teams are nearly as good defensively as TCU. In other words, the Raiders' early high-scoring results can partly be taken with a grain of salt. Keep in mind that this Tech team returned 10 defensive starters and were expected to have their best defensive unit in years. Last season's meeting stayed WELL below the total, as did the 2016 meeting; each game stayed below the number by 3+ TDs. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 11-1 the last 12 times that TCU was off a conference win.
|10-06-18||Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 60.5||Top||21-3||Win||100||97 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on Fresno State / Nevada UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Its true that I won with the 'over' in last week's Fresno/Toledo game. However, Nevada is a different style of opponent and that high-scoring result has helped in providing us with a generously high O/U line. The Bulldogs, who have held all four opponents to 27 or fewer points are allowing an average of only 17.5 ppg and 288.5 ppg through their first two road games. Those were opponents from the Pac 12 and Big 10, too. Note that Fresno State has seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 the past six times that it was off back-to-back SU victories. Nevada is off its best defensive performance of the season, holding Air Force to just 250 total yards. Nevada QB Ganji is banged-up (leg) and questionable. Assuming he goes, note that he was intercepted three times by Fresno last season. The Bulldogs' last visit here was in Oct. of 2016. The O/U line was 54 and the teams combined for 49. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|09-30-18||Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 51||Top||26-14||Win||100||14 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on Balt/Pitt UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Results from the first few games have helped to provide us with a generously high O/U line. A look at recent meetings between these division rivals reveals that all the O/U lines were in the 40s. Last season's two games had O/U lines of 42 and 43. The previous season, both games had O/U lines of 46.5. Likewise for Baltimore's games this season. The Ravens' first three games had O/U lines ranging from 38.5 to 46.5. Once again, we're working with a much higher number here. While the Ravens practically never see lines this high, over the years, note that the Steelers have seen the UNDER go 12-6 the last 18 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. Going back to the recent meetings, note that the first meeting of the season, each of the past two years, has been low-scoring. (In each case, the rematch was higher-scoring.) Last season's first game between these teams, almost exactly one year ago to the day, produced 35 points. The first meeting the previous season produced just 35 points, too. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|09-29-18||Toledo v. Fresno State OVER 59.5||Top||27-49||Win||100||98 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on Toledo/Fresno State OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). These teams combined for 69 points the last time that they met and I won't be surprised if they exceed that on Saturday night. These teams are both likely to put up a big number. Toledo was the first team in NCAA history to bring back three receivers which had caught at least 10 TD passes, in a season, at some point in their career. The Rockets scored 66 in their opener and 63 last week against Nevada. Only Miami kept them below 60 (49-24) and that game still produced 73 combined points. Overall, Toledo games are averaging 83 points. Fresno, meanwhile, also has an excellent group of wide receivers, arguably the best in the Mountain West. The Bulldogs scored 79 points in their lone home game. In games which had an O/U number, the Bulldogs have seen the OVER go 40-20 in September over the years. Expect those stats to improve here.
|09-27-18||North Carolina v. Miami-FL UNDER 55.5||10-47||Loss||-105||32 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on Miami/UNC to finish UNDER the total (8* O/U MAIN EVENT). Recent games between these two teams have been low-scoring in nature. I expect that to be the case again Thursday. Last season's game produced 43 points, a 24-19 road victory for Miami. The previous season, the teams combined for only 33 points, a 20-13 road upset by the Tar Heels. This season, the Tar Heels brought back eight defensive starters, compared to just five on the offensive side. They managed only 17 and 19 points in their previous two road games and they'll be facing an even better defense here. The "under" has been money for both teams over the years when playing Thursday night games. The UNDER is also 11-3 the last 14 times that the Canes played a home game with an O/U line in the 52.5 to 56 range. Expect UNC to have trouble moving the ball and finding the end zone, the final combined score again finishing below the number.
|09-24-18||Steelers v. Bucs UNDER 54.5||Top||30-27||Loss||-115||171 h 19 m||Show|
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/TB to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). With both teams off consecutive "overs" to start the season, we're working with a very high O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Yes, their game at Cleveland finished above the total. However, that game still produced only 42 points (even after OT) and even with that result, the Steelers have still seen the UNDER go 14-4 their last 18 on the road. During the same stretch, the Bucs have seen the UNDER go 10-7 at home, including a 3-1 UNDER mark in home games when the O/U line was at 49.5 or greater. Going back further finds the UNDER at 7-1 the last eight times that the Bucs played a home game with an O/U line at 49.5 or more. With the likes of Bell and Winston still out, expect those stats to improve Monday night.
|09-22-18||Stanford v. Oregon OVER 55.5||Top||38-31||Win||100||32 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing Stanford/Oregon OVER the total. The Ducks had trouble scoring at Stanford in last season's meeting. That game had 35 points at halftime but finished with only 56. However, in the most recent meeting here at Oregon, both teams were able to put up points. In fact, that game had an O/U line in the high 50s but finished with 79 combined points. I expect both teams to put up a fairly big number again Saturday evening. The Ducks have scored 58, 62 and 35 points, an average of 51.7 ppg (503 ypg). The Cardinal, meanwhile, have scored 30 or more in two of their three games. Including the 79-point affair here in 2016, the OVER is 11-5 the Ducks' last 16 home games. Expect those stats to improve Saturday night.
|09-16-18||Giants v. Cowboys OVER 42||Top||13-20||Loss||-110||12 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on Dallas/NY to finish OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). This O/U number could easily be at 44 or higher. However, because of both teams finishing below the total last week, we're working below that important key O/U number. Keep in mind that the O/U line was 46 when these teams played here last September and it was 48 when they played here two Septembers ago. With regards to last week, both teams were up against stingy defenses. The Cowboys were on the road, at Carolina, where the Panthers have shown an ability to shut teams down. The Giants, meanwhile, were up against a very tough Jacksonville defense, arguably among the most talented in the league. Both offenses are going to be hungry and both will find things easier this evening. Expect the final combined score to finish above the generously low number.
|09-16-18||Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 43.5||20-12||Win||100||27 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on NYJ/Miami UNDER the total (8*). These teams were both involved in "overs" in their opening game. Those results have worked in our favor by helping to provide us with a generously high O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Note that the Dolphins' last visit here produced just 26 combined points. Including that result, the UNDER is 3-1 the past four times that the Dolphins played a road game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 range. During the same span, the Jets have seen the UNDER go 2-0, when off a Monday night game. Expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon, the final combined score finishing below the generously high O/U number.
|09-13-18||Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 44||Top||23-34||Loss||-110||81 h 14 m||Show|
I'm playing Baltimore/Cincinnati UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). As of this writing, the Ravens are very slight favorites. Therefore, its worth mentioning that the Bengals have seen the UNDER go 12-4 the past couple of seasons, when playing a line in the -3 to +3 range. That includes a 3-0 UNDER mark when they were listed as home underdogs of three or fewer points. Meanwhile, during the same span, the Ravens have seen the UNDER go 3-0 when listed as road favorites of three or fewer points. The last two meetings here at Cincinnati both had lower O/U lines than this one; they finished with 20 and 37 combined points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
|09-13-18||Boston College v. Wake Forest UNDER 51||41-34||Loss||-107||56 h 23 m||Show|
I'm playing on BC/WF UNDER the total (8* BEST BET). The Eagles are off back-to-back high-scoring games to start the season. Wake Forest is the best defense that they will have seen though and I expect a much lower-scoring contest. Last year's game produced 44 combined points. The previous season, in the most recent meeting here at Wake Forest, the teams combined for only 31 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 6-1 the last seven times that the Deacons were a host in the series. Also, including the 17-14 result the last meeting here, the Eagles have seen the UNDER go a lucrative 65-37 their last 100+ on the road. The UNDER is also 4-0 the last couple of seasons, when the Eagles were favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. Expect more of the same Thursday.
|09-09-18||Bengals v. Colts UNDER 47||34-23||Loss||-121||1288 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on Cincinnati/Indianapolis UNDER the total (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). With Luck back behind center, the Colts have big hopes for this season. He should definitely help make them better. That said, the improvement may not be immediate. And they've got a long way to go. This is a team which averaged just 16.4 ppg last year, managing a mere 284 ypg. Their home stats were only marginally better. Likewise, the Bengals also really struggled on offense last year. In fact, they averaged just 18.1 ppg and 280.5 ypg. On the road, they managed a mere 249.5 ypg. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 10-6 in Bengal road games the past couple of seasons. During that span, the UNDER is also 12-3 when the Bengals played a game where the O/U line ranged from -3 to +3, a PERFECT 4-0 when the Bengals were road underdogs of three or fewer points. With the UNDER also at 12-4 the last 16 Colt home games, expect this generously high O/U number to prove to be too high.
|09-09-18||49ers v. Vikings UNDER 46||Top||16-24||Win||100||43 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF/Minnesota to finish UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). The Vikings allowed just 13.8 points per game here last season, limiting visiting teams to only 261 yards. Expect them to use the same formula against a SF squad which managed less than 20 points (19.5) per road game last season. Overall Viking home games averaged 39 combined points. The 49ers were respectable on defense on the road themselves, allowing 19.7 ppg and 319 ypg. Overall, five of their road games fell below the total, those eight games averaging 39.2 combined points. The Vikes have seen the UNDER go 12-6 the past couple of seasons, when playing a game where the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 49. Expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon.
|09-08-18||Air Force v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 69||Top||27-33||Win||100||72 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on Air Force / FAU UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). I feel that this O/U number, which has risen from its opener, will prove to be too higher. While the opponent was obviously pretty weak, the Falcons are off a shutout win in their opener. They held Stony Brook to a mere 30 yards rushing and only 45 yards passing. The Seawolves would finish with just four first downs. Needless to say, it was among the best defensive performances ever by the Falcons and should give them plenty of confidence entering Saturday's game. FAU didn't fare so well defensively, getting lit up by Oklahoma. However, that effort notwithstanding, this IS a very experienced defense and we can expect a MUCH better performance this week. The UNDER is 8-6 in FAU home games the past couple of seasons. Expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon.
|09-06-18||Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 46.5||Top||12-18||Win||100||419 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on Atlana/Philadelphia to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). I believe this number will prove to be too high. When these teams met last January, the O/U line was only 40.5. Even that proved much too high, as the game produced a mere 25 points. While the Eagles of course don't have any record yet, its still worth mentioning that last year's playoff result brought the UNDER go 10-1 their last 11 against teams with a winning record. In other words, when matched up against a good team, last year's Falcons had a strong tendency to play low-scoring games. Overall, the UNDER was 12-5 when the Falcons took the field. They've also now seen the UNDER go 6-1 their last seven against NFC East opponents. Both teams allowed just 17 points in their opener last season. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55.5||Top||24-3||Win||100||81 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing on V-Tech/FSU UNDER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Its true that both these teams are hoping and expecting to have improved offenses this season. However, that improvement isn't likely to be immediate and there's always plenty of athleticism and talent on the defensive side from both these teams. The Noles allowed just 15 ppg (280 ypg) their final three last season and 20.3 ppg at home on the season. The Hokies, meanwhile, allowed a mere 14.8 ppg on the season, 14.7 their final three. The UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons, when the Hokies were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, six of their 10 road games finishing below the total. As for the Noles, the UNDER is 10-5-1 their last 16 conference games. Overall, VT games averaged 43 points last season while FSU games averaged 49. All things considered, this number, which has climbed from its opener, is generously high.
|09-01-18||Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 46.5||Top||17-24||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on Michigan/ND UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). While this should be an entertaining game, I don't expect there to be a whole lot of scoring. The Wolverines are loaded on defense and should be among the best in the nation on that side of the ball. They allowed 18.8 ppg and 281 ypg last year and this year's unit is far more experienced, bringing back 14 of their top 16 tacklers. Likewise, this should be the best Notre Dame defense that we've seen in several years, the Irish bringing back nine defensive starters. The Irish have seen the UNDER go 4-2 the past couple of seasons when the line ranged from -3 to +3. Look for points to be at a premium.
|08-31-18||Utah State v. Michigan State OVER 50.5||Top||31-38||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on Utah State / Michigan State OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). I believe this number will prove to be too low. This is the best offense that Matt Wells has had in his six years here at Utah State, as they are loaded with experience on that side of the ball. Keep in mind that the Aggies averaged better than 30 ppg (30.3) on the road last season. The problem was that they allowed even more than that. Not surprisingly, eight of their past 12 road games have finished above the number. While the Spartans offense wasn't exactly intimidating last season, this is a great opportunity for them to start the season by padding their offensive stats. Expect the final combined score to finish above the low number.
|08-30-18||New Mexico State v. Minnesota OVER 46.5||Top||10-48||Win||100||11 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on New Mexico State / Minnesota to finish OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Admittedly, the Aggies offense didn't look too impressive against Wyoming. However, having a game under their belts will help and I expect them to move the ball more effectively. Stopping the Gophers, who are favored by more than 3 TDs for good reason, is an entirely different matter. The Aggies have seen the OVER go 10-4 on the road the past couple of seasons, as they rarely stop anyone, when playing away from home. Indeed, they allowed an average of 478.2 ypg on the road last season, well over six yards per play. Expect Minnesota to put up a big number and for New Mexico State to supply the rest, as this one finishes above the low number!