|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-28-18||Red Sox v. Dodgers -133||Top||5-1||Loss||-133||10 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* MAIN EVENT). While Price may have "exorcised his demons," he's also pitching on 1-day's rest, having thrown in Friday's marathon 18-inning game. Kershaw, now at home, knows his legacy is on the line. Fewer and fewer people are calling him "The Goat" these days. He knows that by delivering a big game in the World Series, with his team needing it more than ever, would silence some of the critics, exorcising some of his own demons. In 15 home starts, Kershaw has a 2.28 ERA and 0.932 WHIP. This is still "his house" and I'm not counting out the Dodgers with him on the mound.
|10-26-18||Red Sox v. Dodgers -145||Top||2-3||Win||100||28 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* PLAYOFF GAME OF YEAR). I'm not counting the Dodgers out yet. In 13 home starts, Buehler had a sparkling 1.67 ERA and 0.769 WHIP, averaging better than six innings per outing. I like that he's had 15 K's vs. a single walk over his last two starts. While he's had a solid season, Porcello got taken deep twice in just four innings in his last start. While he hasn't pitched here in some time, he's got an ugly 1.968 WHIP in two starts here at LA. The last time the Dodgers lost two in a row, exactly one month ago, they responded with a 3-1 win, start of a 6-game winning streak. Backs against the wall, the Dodgers respond once again!
|10-17-18||Red Sox v. Astros -140||Top||8-6||Loss||-140||13 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Astros bats struggled yesterday, I expect them to come to life against Porcello this evening. A look at the first five batters (Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Gurriel, Gonzalez) from yesterday's Astros lineup shows that those five are hitting .417, .333, .333, .333 and .500 against Porcello. Also, Correa, who batted seventh yesterday, is hitting .375 against Porcello. Though he pitched well against the Yankees, Porcello had a 4.54 ERA after the All Star Break and is still 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA for his postseason career. At 15-3, Morton has had a terrific season. One of the losses came in a h2h matchup against Porcello back in June. Payback time when it counts this evening.
|10-15-18||Brewers v. Dodgers -165||Top||4-0||Loss||-165||34 h 23 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* GAME OF WEEK). With the Dodgers evening things up in Game 2, the series now shifts to LA. That suits Buehler and the Dodgers just fine. Buehler, who lost at Atlanta in the opening round, had a solid 3.45 ERA on the road this season. However, here at home, he was dominant, recording a 1.93 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Opposing batters hit just .174 against him here. Though he got no run support (1-0 loss) Buehler was outstanding in his lone start against the Brewers. Through seven complete innings, he allowed just one run, on only five hits, striking out seven without walking a batter. On the other hand, Chacin's last start (8/2) against the Dodgers saw him allow nine runs, eight of them earned, through just 4 1/3 innings. The Dodgers won that one by a score of 21-5.
|10-07-18||Brewers v. Rockies -143||Top||6-0||Loss||-143||30 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on COLORADO (10* NLDS GAME OF YEAR). After battling so hard to get here, the Rockies find themselves in a hole. Back home and with Marquez on the mound, I expect them to respond with their best effort. While many pitchers struggle here, recently, Marquez has cracked the code. In fact, he's got a 1.90 ERA his last seven starts here, all of them quality. Overall, he finished the regular season with 14 wins, a 3.77 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Very solid numbers for a pitcher with Coors for a home park. Marquez can dominate hitters. In September, he had 48 K's vs. just five walks. He began October by striking out nine Dodgers in 4 2/3 innings. He last faced the Brewers on Aug. 3rd. Through seven complete innings, he allowed just two runs, on only three hits. He had nine K's against two walks. Miley has been solid but isn't capable of dominating the way Marquez can. Miley's last start here was back in 2014. He allowed six runs on eight hits and four walks, losing 8-3. Expect Marquez and co. to finish on top.
|10-05-18||Indians v. Astros -137||Top||2-7||Win||100||25 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). Kluber has enjoyed another strong season and is obviously an elite pitcher. That said, his 3.80 ERA on the road was considerably higher than his 2.14 mark at home. Also, he was "nothing special" last time out, the Indians losing 9-4 at KC. Kluber didn't factor in the decision but allowed three runs, on seven hits, through five innings. While three runs in five innings may not be terrible, its 3x as many runs as Verlander has allowed in his last three starts combined. He's got a 0.47 ERA and 0.474 WHIP over those three starts, allowing a single run in 19 innings. Over his last four starts, he's allowed just three runs, a span of 26 complete innings. The Astros are a perfect 5-0 the last five times that he's taken the mound. Behind another big game from Verlander, expect the Astros to draw first blood, moving to 19-6 the past 25 times that they were off a shutout loss.
|10-02-18||Rockies v. Cubs -126||Top||2-1||Loss||-126||23 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* MLB GAME OF MONTH). The Cubs have a big scheduling advantage. They were finishing up here at Wrigley yesterday afternoon while the Rockies were still just getting started against the Dodgers, all the way out in LA. The veteran Lester, who was 18-6 on the season, will be making his 22nd postseason start and 26th playoff appearance overall. He's got a stellar 2.55 career postseason ERA and he was 4-1 with a superb 1.52 ERA this September. While I respect Freeland, I prefer Lester's postseason experience. Hey Chicago, what do you say? The Cubs are gonna win today!
|10-01-18||Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7||Top||2-5||Push||0||8 h 14 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA/Colorado UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Expect runs to be at a premium this afternoon. Marquez 2-0 with a stellar 2.57 ERA against the Dodgers this season. Both starts were here at LA, as he's been very comfortable here. Both games stayed below the total with scores of 2-1 and 3-1. The first of those came in a h2h matchup against Buehler. Speaking of Buehler, despite three of the games coming at Coors, he has a 2.61 ERA in five starts against Colorado this season, the UNDER going 3-1-1. The two games here at LA averaged five combined runs. Overall, Buehler had a 1.95 ERA in five September starts. Expect a well-pitched affair.
|09-28-18||Blue Jays v. Rays -155||Top||7-6||Loss||-155||11 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on TAMPA (10* PERS FAV). The Rays got hammered by the Yankees yesterday. Today's series opener vs. the Jays provides the perfect opportunity to bounce right back. These same starters just opposed each other at Toronto in their last start. While Pannone and the Jays finished on top, both delivered "quality" starts. Glasnow has now delivered "quality" starts four of the past five times that he took the mound, posting a stellar 2.37 ERA (0.947 WHIP) his last three. Pannone, meanwhile, still has an ugly 7.84 ERA when starting on the road. Even factoring in yesterday vs Sabathia (and last week at Toronto) the Rays are still a healthy 26-19 (+10.1) against southpaws. Now on his own mound, expect Glasnow to get the better of Pannone, the Rays (49-29 at TB) responding with Win #50 in front of the home fans.
|09-25-18||Pirates v. Cubs -137||Top||6-0||Loss||-137||11 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). While Archer was still with the Rays, these same two starters opposed each other, at Tropicana, almost exactly one year ago. Joe Maddon was making his return to Tampa. Montgomery came through for Maddon in a big way that day, allowing just one hit through six innings. After the Cubs won 2-1, Maddon said that was "the best I've seen him" of Montogmery. Today, Montgomery faces Archer, who is now in a Pirate uniform, another team which typically brings out his best. In three starts against Pittsburgh, Montgomery is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. He won those three games by a combined score of 16-2, compiling a 10:1 K/W ratio along the way. Speaking of K's, last time out, Montgomery struck out eight Arizona hitters, while walking just one. He'd allow just four overall hits and a single run, through six innings, the Cubs winning 9-1. That was on the road but Montgomery also has a 2.70 ERA in six home starts. Archer, meanwhile, is 5-8 with a 4.55 ERA overall, that mark climbing to 4.61 when he pitches on the road. Throw in the fact that Chicago has better hitting stats and better bullpen stats and this line could easily be higher. Cubs bounce back.
|09-24-18||Rangers v. Angels -160||Top||4-5||Win||100||14 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). I've had a good read on Pena and expect him to lead his team to a victory tonight. Some of you will recall that I successfully played on the Angels when Pena beat the Rangers two starts ago. Pena tossed six shutout innings and the Angels won 8-1. I came right back and (successfully) went against Pena in his last start, a 10-0 loss at Oakland. The Angels are back home now though, taking a major step down in class after having to contend with the Astros. Note that the Angels average 4.4 runs per game at home compared to the Rangers' 3.9 runs per game on the road. Sampson will be making just his fourth start and only his third since 2016. Unfortunate for him that two of those will have come against these same Angels, who beat him on 9/11, in the span of less than two weeks. The Angels remain a healthy 54-33 (+7.3) the past couple of seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. They've taken 10 of 16 against the Rangers on the season, four of six here at LA. Expect them to begin the week with a much needed victory.
|09-19-18||Angels v. A's -128||Top||0-10||Win||100||15 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). Yesterday, it was a southpaw starter for the Angels vs. a right-handed starter for the A's. The Angels finished on top. Roles are reversed here, however, as the A's send the lefty to the mound to oppose a right-hander for the Angels. That's significant given the fact that Oakland is a superb 60-36 (+28.2) vs. right-handers. That looks even better when compared to LA's 20-28 (-12.1) mark vs. southpaws. These same two starters opposed each other at LA on 8/10. Neither factored in the decision. However, Anderson was better, allowing two runs compared to Pena's three, one HR compared to Pena's two. Now, Anderson gets to pitch at home where he's been far stronger. In fact, he's got a stellar 0.932 WHIP (2.55 ERA) here through four starts. A's bounce back.
|09-18-18||Angels v. A's OVER 8||Top||9-7||Win||100||13 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA/Oakland OVER the total (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Skaggs, back from the DL, can't be too happy to see the A's. His last start (against any team) was against Oakland roughly five weeks ago. He last just 3 1/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs. The A's took him deep three times. Of course, that was actually an improvement on his previous start, his most recent on the road. In that one, pitching at Tampa, he gave up TEN earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. Thats 17 combined earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Overall, he's 2-5 with a 5.32 ERA in eight career starts vs. the A's. Hendricks is just an "opener" and won't be around long. Four of his five starts, including each of his last three, have finished above the total. Expect some offensive fireworks, the final combined score finishing above the total.
|09-17-18||Rockies v. Dodgers -150||Top||2-8||Win||100||12 h 57 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played against the Dodgers yesterday, stating that I expect Wainwright to rise to the occasion for the Cards. He did exactly that. In fact, the Cards' veteran did exactly as I had mentioned that he had also done in his previous start against LA, delivering six shutout innings. The Dodgers are back home tonight, however, and I expect them to immediately restore order. While the Rockies haven't seen Ryu this season, the Dodgers have already seen Gray twice in the past five weeks. They got a home run off him in each game, banging out 12 hits and walking six times, in just 9 2/3 combined innings. While Gray has a 4.81 ERA (12 HRs) on the road, Ryu has a superb 2.16 ERA (3 HRs) at home, striking out 47 against only six walks. I'm going with LA.
|09-16-18||Dodgers v. Cardinals +1.5||Top||0-5||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the run-line (10* MAIN EVENT, +1.5 runs) The Cards got pounded yesterday. Desperate to right the ship, I expect a much better effort Sunday night. Wainwright is back from the DL and now has a start under his belt. Though he admittedly wasn't great in his return, I liked the fact that Wainwright retired the final eight batters he faced and also that he didn't walk a batter. While we can't expect a complete game from him, lets keep in mind that this guy (147-84, 3.31 ERA) knows how to win and knows the importance of getting his team back on track. His last start against the Dodgers saw him toss six shutout innings in a 2-0 win. His previous two against LA were both decided by a single run. He's got a 2.69 ERA in 15 appearances (12 starts) for his career. While he was 8-1 with a 2.08 ERA prior to the All Star Break, Stripling is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in five appearances (4 starts) since. At this low price, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs with the desperate home team.
|09-14-18||Marlins v. Phillies -160||Top||2-14||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PERS FAV). Major scheduling advantage for the Phillies as they had yesterday off while the Marlins played a double-header at New York, losing a pair of tough ones. Admittedly, Eflin hasn't been as good in the second half. However, he's still 6-3 with a solid 3.81 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 10 starts here at home. Those numbers are pretty good, when compared to what Chen has done on the road. Indeed, its no secret that Chen has been far worse, when pitching away from home. In 11 road starts, he's 1-7 with a 9.13 ERA. Opposing batters have hit .190 against him at Miami but .333 on the road. Chen has faced the Phillies six times and he's 0-3 in the three games here at Philadelphia. In the last two of those starts here, Chen allowed 18 hits and eight runs in 10 1/3 innings. Overall, the Phillies won those three games by a combined score of 14-6, each victory coming by multiple runs. With the schedule and venue in their favor, expect more of the same Friday.
|09-12-18||Brewers v. Cubs -147||Top||5-1||Loss||-147||12 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Cubs got back on track yesterday and I absolutely expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Hendricks is in outstanding current form, as he's got a 1.00 ERA his last three starts. In his last home start, he allowed just two hits through seven shutout innings. Hendricks figures to get some support with "Long Ball" Anderson on the mound for Milwaukee. Anderson has served up 29 HR's on the season, most in the NL. Hendricks got the better of Anderson in a pitcher's duel (1-0) back in the spring. This one may see a few more runs scored but expect the end result to be the same.
|09-10-18||White Sox v. Royals -118||Top||3-4||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC (10* PERS FAV). Giolito has had success against the Royals and he got the better of Junis, back in the spring. I'm banking on Junis, who is currently in outstanding form, to return the favor this evening. Two starts ago, in his most recent start here at KC, Junis went the distance. He limited the Tigers to two runs on six hits, striking out seven without walking a batter. The Royals won 6-2. Last time out, he was even better. Pitching on the road against a dangerous Cleveland lineup, he allowed just two hits through seven shutout innings. Once again, he didn't walk a batter, this time recording six K's. The Royals won 5-1. His success in this series notwithstanding, Giolito has struggled overall. For the season, he's got a 5.85 ERA. Last time out, he lasted only 1 1/3 innings against the Tigers, giving up five runs, four of them earned. The Sox have lost his last two starts by score of 8-3 and 9-4. Overall, the Sox have now lost five straight, getting outscored by a 36-10 margin. Royals roll.
|09-09-18||Indians -165 v. Blue Jays||Top||2-6||Loss||-165||17 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* VIOLATOR). Overall, Clevinger is 11-7 with a solid 3.11 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the season. However, a closer look reveals that he's also 6-1 with a superb 2.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, when just looking at his daytime starts. He's got a 2.32 ERA in nine starts since the All Star Break. Pannone, on the other hand, will be making only his third start. Last time out, he gave up seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. Indians roll.
|09-06-18||Braves v. Diamondbacks -155||Top||7-6||Loss||-155||28 h 23 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* PERS FAV). The Braves lost a heartbreaker against Boston yesterday afternoon and now travel across the country to take on Greinke and the Diamondbacks. That spells trouble, as Greinke has a superb 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 14 starts here. In fact, he's allowed two or fewer runs in 13 of those 14 starts. He's now 19-4 here the past two seasons. Though he's admittedly been solid of late, at 96-99 with a 4.02 ERA for his career, Sanchez isn't in the same class as Greinke. The last time he pitched here at Arizona, he allowed 11 hits and five runs. I'm going with Greinke and the rested home team.
|09-04-18||Phillies -137 v. Marlins||Top||9-4||Win||100||13 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Phillies blew a chance to gain ground on Atlanta yesterday. Off three straight losses, they desperately need to get back on track. While he's had some trouble of late, I expect Arrieta to earn some of his big contract tonight. Brought in to provide veteran leadership, the former World Series Champ and former Cy Young Award winner knows how critical things are. Note that he last faced the Marlins in July, tossing seven shutout innings while allowing just three hits. He got the "W" in a 2-0 game. Including that gem, he's 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA against the Marlins, for his career. Meanwhile, Richards is 3-7 on the year and he's got a 5.87 ERA his last three. The Phillies gave Hoskins a rare night off yesterday. In hindsight, that was probably a mistake, particularly with Franco already out. They won't make the same mistake tonight, as Hoskins and his 27 HRs and 83 RBIs will surely be back in the lineup. The very inexperienced Marlins simply don't have that type of player; the Phillies have the superior talent at nearly every position. Expect them to stop the bleeding.
|09-03-18||Cardinals v. Nationals -171||Top||3-4||Win||100||4 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). After coming up short against Nola and the Phillies in back-to-back starts, expect Scherzer to be all business here. He's 8-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.877 WHIP at home. While Flaherty has admittedly been pretty stingy himself, the Cards are just 5-7 when he starts on the road. Scherzer's last start against St. Louis saw him deliver seven scoreless innings, allowing just two hits, while striking out a dozen. Expect him to be at his best once again, en route to a victory for the home team.
|09-01-18||Twins v. Rangers +1.5||Top||4-7||Win||100||12 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing TEXAS on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs) While I actually like the Rangers to win this one outright, a close one won't surprise. Therefore, I feel that getting an extra +1.5 runs, at this reasonable a price, is the way to go. Gallardo has been solid for quite some time now. He's 4-2 with a 3.89 ERA his last seven outings. Barrios hasn't been as sharp, he had a poor 4.74 ERA in August. While the Twins are 5-8 in Barrios' road starts, Gallardo, who has had some success vs. the Twins, has seen his team go 6-1 when he starts at home. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" here.
|08-31-18||Orioles v. Royals -125||Top||2-9||Win||100||13 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC (10* GAME OF MONTH). Keller has been extremely stingy of late. Over his past three starts, he's 2-0 a stellar 2.12 ERA. He's allowed only four earned runs, striking out 14 against just three walks. With a 4-12 record and a 4.79 ERA, Cashner hasn't known that level of success. He's now 46-76 for his career. This season, he's 2-6 with a 5.14 ERA on the road. While I won with the Orioles in their series finale against the Jays, expect them to return to their losing ways here.
|08-29-18||Rays v. Braves -140||Top||8-5||Loss||-140||13 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERS FAV). I won with the Braves yesterday and I'm coming right back with them again today. Newcomb shook off a couple of shaky starts to deliver six shutout innings in his last start. In fact, he allowed just two hits while striking out eight. For the season, he's 11-6 with a solid 3.57 ERA through 25 starts. He also averages a healthy six innings per home stat. On the other hand, Castillo has made two starts and gone a combined 3 1/3 innings. After seeing their winning streak snapped yesterday, look for the Rays to lose again.
|08-28-18||Rays v. Braves -121||Top||5-9||Win||100||26 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Teheran has been dominant of late. Last time out, he allowed just one run, on only two hits, through seven very strong innings. Over his past three starts, he now has an awesome 1.80 ERA to go along with an extremely stringy 0.60 WHIP. Importantly, he's averaged 6 2/3 innings per start, too. Stanek, admittedly, does some impressive stuff. That said, even when he starts, he's never around very long. Also, in eight road starts, he's got a 5.69 ERA. While the Rays average 4.0 runs per game on the road, the Braves average 4.8 rpg at home. All things considered, this line could easily be much higher. Expect Teheran and the Braves to get the better of a Tampa team which is just 6-12 (-8.1) in Interleague play.
|08-27-18||Diamondbacks -168 v. Giants||Top||0-2||Loss||-168||12 h 16 m||Show|
I’m playing on ARIZONA (10* PERS FAV). The Dbax got back on track yesterday and I expect them to follow it up with another victory this evening. Corbin has been excellent (10-4, 3.17 ERA) all season and he's currently in outstanding current form. In fact, he's now gone 11 consecutive games without surrendering a long ball. (That ties a franchise record.) Over his past six starts, Corbin is a perfect 4-0 with 49 K's against just four walks. Dominant. For the season, Corbin is 4-1 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 12 road starts. By comparison, Statton has an ugly 5.65 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in nine home starts. While Stratton has averaged less than five innings per home start, Corbin averages more than six innings per road start. While I've already mentioned Corbin's outstanding current form, Stratton is 0-2 (team is 0-3) in his last three starts, posting an awful 9.60 ERA and 2.133 WHIP. The Giants lost those three starts by a combined score of 20-7. One of those was a 8/3 game against Arizona where Stratton and Corbin went head-to-head. Corbin was much better than Stratton that day and I expect him to get the better of him again tonight.
|08-25-18||Rangers v. Giants -145||Top||3-5||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF (10* ANNIHILATOR). Not only do the Giants have better success against southpaws but they've also got the better one going. Suarez is has a solid 3.79 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in 10 home starts. Perez, on the other hand, has a horrible 6.82 ERA and 1.912 WHIP on the road. Suarez struggled last time out but in his previous start he held the Dodgers to only two hits through six shutout innings. Perez, meanwhile, has been rocked in b2b starts. Last time out, he gave up six runs on nine hits. In his previous start, he allowed seven runs on 11 hits. Giants roll.
|08-22-18||Cardinals v. Dodgers -153||Top||3-1||Loss||-153||16 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on the LA DODGERS (10* GAME OF WEEK). After dropping the first two games of the series, the Dodgers badly need a victory this evening. With Buehler on the mound, I expect them to get it. While both starters have indeed been excellent of late, Buehler has a 1.89 ERA (0.797 WHIP!) at home compared to Flaherty's 2.85 (1.05 WHIP) mark on the road. While the Dodgers have won five of Buehler's eight home starts, the Cards are just 4-7 when Flaherty starts on the road. With Flaherty averaging just 5 1/2 innings per road starts (compared to Buehler's six innings per home start) note that the Dodgers still have the superior bullpen starts. They also hit better against right-handers, both in terms of average and in terms of runs scored. After beating the Mariners by an 11-1 score (before that he tossed 7 shutout innings at Coors) in his last start, Buehler received the following praise from Robinson Cano: "They've got a good, young arm over there. He throws hard. You face some guys that throw 98, but you see it really good. But his fastball gets to you and everything is hard, the breaking ball, the slider or cutter. He's got a bright future ahead." Put away your brooms, Cards' fans. No sweep here!
|08-21-18||Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays||Top||2-8||Loss||-155||12 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing BALTIMORE on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs.) Bundy has made three career starts at Toronto. The O's won one of them by an 11-4 margin. The other two both resulted in a 1-run wins for the Jays. In other words, if getting an extra +1.5 runs as he is here, he's 3-0 here in Canada. For this career overall, Bundy has a stellar 2.61 ERA and 0.903 WHIP in five starts vs. the Jays. Gaviglio has only made one start vs. Baltimore and that saw him serve up a pair of HRs and four runs overall. That was one of them games that Bundy started. Neither starter factored in the decision; the Jays winning by a single run. While they did manage to win by two runs yesterday, the Jays' previous 10 games had seen them go 3-7 with ALL three of the wins coming by a single run. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from the visitors in this one.
|08-19-18||Mets v. Phillies -187||Top||8-2||Loss||-187||12 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* MAIN EVENT). I don't often release a "top rated play" on a favorite this size. However, this is an absolute mismatch and the price could easily be higher. Pivetta is in dominant current form, posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP his last three starts. Over that 18 inning span, he's allowed just three runs, while compiling a 19/2 K/W ratio. Vargas, on the other hand, is 0-2 with an ugly 7.15 ERA his last three starts. However, he's been so bad all year that those recent numbers have actually improved his season stats. Indeed, he's 2-8 with an 8.10 ERA overall including a 1-4 mark with an awful 8.91 ERA (1.830 WHIP) in eight road starts. Not surprisingly, the Mets are 2-11 when he takes the mound, 1-7 on the road. While he was better last time out, he still walked 3x more batters than he struck out. Pivetta's last start against the Mets resulted in an 11-0 victory. Expect another blowout.
|08-18-18||Rockies v. Braves -151||Top||5-3||Loss||-151||11 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERS FAV). After dropping the first two games of the series, expect the Braves to bounce back in a big way here. Foltynewic is off a gem last time out. Through eight complete innings, he allowed just one earned run on five hits. He's now 3-0 with a superb 1.86 ERA his past three. Through 23 starts on the season, he's got a stellar 2.86 ERA. Senzatela, who recently came off the DL, hasn't started since Aug 2nd. Through nine road outings, three starts, he's got an ugly 5.81 ERA. While he hasn't had much success against the Rockies historically, expect Foltynewic to get the better of Senzatela, the Braves bouncing back with an important win.
|08-17-18||Royals v. White Sox UNDER 9||Top||3-9||Loss||-115||12 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC/Chicago to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Over his past two starts, Junis has allowed only two combined runs, on eight hits, while striking out 16 batters. For the season, six of his nine road starts have fallen below the total. While he took an "L" for his efforts, Shields was sharp again last time out, holding the Indians to two earned runs through seven complete innings. The veteran has gone a minimum of six innings in 18 of his last 21 starts. For the season, the UNDER is 11-4 when he starts here at home. That includes a 4-2 loss the last time he faced the Royals. Expect another relatively well-pitched affair here, the final combined score staying beneath the number.
|08-15-18||Angels v. Padres -121||Top||3-2||Loss||-121||13 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on SD (10* PERS FAV). While the Angels took yesterday's game, they're not nearly the same team without Trout in the lineup. Even at the best of times, they're also not very good against southpaws. Factoring in a victory in the series opener, they're still a poor 14-21 (-11.3) against left-handers on the season. Note that Pena is 0-2 with a 9.53 ERA his last three starts. Erlin goes for the home team. While he's obviously not going to win any Cy Young awards, I like the fact that he's got 9 K's against only two walks his last three starts (Pena has a 6/5 K/W ratio his last three.) and that he's kept the ball in the park each of his last two starts. (Pena has served up 3 long balls his last two starts.) He's also allowed just three combined runs his last two starts. the Padres won those games by scores of 8-4 and 6-1, beating the Brewers and Cubs. Expect the Padres to bounce back and avoid the sweep.
|08-14-18||White Sox v. Tigers -130||Top||6-3||Loss||-130||23 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* MAIN EVENT). Hardy is 2-0 with a superb 1.46 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in two starts vs. Chicago this season. Through 12 1/3 innings, he allowed just two combined runs, striking out nine against only one walk. On the other hand, Giolito has allowed 10 earned runs in 11 innings in two starts against Detroit this season. Not surprisingly, his team lost both. Overall, Hardy has a respectable 3.96 ERA this season compared to an ugly 6.23 ERA for Giolito. Over their past three starts, Giolito has a 7.16 ERA compared to a 3.18 mark for Hardy. Note that Hardy is also backed by the superior bullpen. Throw in the fact that the Sox are a dismal 8-20 (-9.7) vs. southpaws, averaging just 3.5 runs per game and it adds up to a victory for the Tigers.
|08-13-18||Mariners v. A's -134||Top||6-7||Win||100||30 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). Both starters struggled last time out. However, Manaea was off a solid effort two starts ago. On the other hand, Gonzales has now been roughed up in back-to-back outings. He now has a poor 5.55 ERA since the All-Star Break. On the season, Gonzales has a 4.42 ERA through a dozen road starts, opposing batters hitting .278. Meanwhile, Manaea has a 3.50 ERA (0.92 WHIP) through a dozen home starts, opposing hitters batting a mere .200. Throw in the fact that the A's have fared better against southpaws and I expect them to finish on top.
|08-12-18||Brewers v. Braves -113||Top||7-8||Win||100||4 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). The Braves opened as larger favorites than they are currently. However, the price has come down and I believe thats providing us with excellent value. Newcomb has been solid all season and he's in outstandng current form. In fact, he's 2-0 (Braves are 3-0) in his last three starts, allowing only three combined runs in 20 2/3 innings. That translates to a 1.31 ERA and he's got a 0.822 WHIP to go along with that. On the other hand, Anderson has served up four HR's in his last two starts alone. In fact, he's allowed more HR's (23) than any other pitcher in the NL. Throw in the fact that the Braves have thrived in day games while the Brewers have struggled and this line could easily be higher. Braves bounce back and close series with a "W."
|08-09-18||Braves v. Nationals -123||Top||3-6||Win||100||5 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). Though he's had some trouble of late, Gonzalez still has a respectable 3.75 ERA through 10 home starts. He's also been considerably better when pitching during the day than he is at night. In 13 evening starts, he's 3-6 with a poor 4.43 ERA. However, in daytime starts, he's 3-2 with a solid 3.53 ERA. While the Braves haven't seen Gonzalez since June, the Nats had a more recent look at Sanchez, having just seen him on 7/20. While he got the better of the Nats that day, look for them to return the favor Thursday afternoon.
|08-08-18||Pirates v. Rockies -125||Top||4-3||Loss||-125||7 h 42 m||Show|
I'm playing on COLORADO (10* PERS FAV). The Rockies got embarrassed yesterday. Expect them to bounce back this afternoon. Marquez is off b2b gems. He's gone seven or more innings in each of his last two starts, allowing just two runs in each. He only allowed eight combined hits in the two games while striking out 17 against just three walks. Archer, on the other hand, has allowed nine runs (7 earned) over just 10 1/3 innings, his last two starts. Over that span, he allowed 20 baserunners, 14 hits and six walks. Marquez is 3-0 with a dominant 2.50 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in three starts vs. the Pirates. Expect him to improve on those stats here.
|08-06-18||Reds v. Mets -164||Top||4-6||Win||100||24 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on NY (10* GAME OF WEEK). This is a very favorable pitching matchup for the Mets. Syndergaard went seven innings in his return, while delivering a quality start. He's 3-0 (team is 4-0) with a superb 1.98 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in four career starts vs. the Reds. On the other hand, Bailey is 1-5 with an ugly 7.21 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in seven starts vs. the Mets. On the current season, Syndergaard is 6-2 with a 2.98 ERA while Bailey is 1-8 with a 5.87 ERA. The Reds are 1-13 (-11.4) when he takes the mound! To be fair, he's deserved a better fate last time out. That said, the matchup still clearly favors the home team. The Mets are 11-5 against the Reds the past few seasons, 6-1 here at NY. Expect them to continue that series dominance for at least another day.
|08-05-18||Blue Jays v. Mariners -147||Top||3-6||Win||100||6 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on SEATTLE (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Mariners badly need a victory here and I expect them to get one. Leake has a very solid 2.95 ERA and 1.091 WHIP his last three starts. On the other hand, Gaviglio has a terrible 7.04 ERA and 1.86 WHIP his last three. For the season, he's 1-4 with an ugly 8.78 ERA in seven road starts. Leake beat the Jays back in May and was great in the process. In fact, he's got a 2.45 ERA in three career starts against them. M's bounce back big.
|08-04-18||Astros v. Dodgers -116||Top||14-0||Loss||-116||12 h 41 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* MAIN EVENT). After dropping yesterday's opener, expect the Dodgers to bounce back and level the series this evening. Maeda has a respectable 3.22 ERA in 10 home starts. On the other hand, McCullers has a 4.67 ERA on the road. McCullers is also 0-3 with a terrible 9.22 ERA his past three starts. Look for Maeda to get the better of McCullers, en route to a Dodger win.
|08-03-18||Braves v. Mets -135||Top||2-1||Loss||-135||11 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* PERS FAV). The Mets continue to get superb pitching nearly every time that deGrom is on the mound. True, he doesn't often see too much run support. However, that can't take away from the spectacular campaign that he's turning in. Through 21 starts, he's got a 1.82 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Through four July starts, he's got a 1.74 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. For the season, through 11 starts, his ERA dips to 1.66. While deGrom has allowed just six earned runs in four July starts (31 innings) Sanchez allowed five runs (4 earned) in his last start alone. Sanchez got bailed out by the offense the last time he faced the Mets; he allowed four runs in four innings, while serving up a pair of HR's. But avoided the "L" when the Marlins scored seven runs. Don't expect him to be so fortunate this time.
|08-01-18||Brewers v. Dodgers -149||Top||4-6||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). The Dodgers lost again yesterday and badly need to get back on track. With Hill in excellent current form, I expect them to do just that. Two starts ago, Hill allowed just one run through six complete innings. Last time out, he was even better; he tossed seven shutout innings. In those two games, he recorded 17 K's through 13 combined innings, permitting only eight hits. Note that Hill's teams are 6-1 for his career, when facing the Brewers. Admittedly, Anderson has also pitched well of late. However, he's only 1-4 (teams are 3-7) in 10 starts vs. LA, posting a poor 5.36 ERA. Dodgers bounce back.
|07-30-18||Marlins v. Braves -155||Top||3-5||Win||100||28 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* GAME OF THE MONTH). Chen just got the better of Teheran, at Miami, on July 24. The Marlins won 9-3. However, as Chen isn't nearly as good on the road, I expect Teheran and co. to get some payback on Monday. In eight home starts, Chen has a stellar 2.18. However, in eight road starts, he's got a terrible 10.47 ERA. He's got a 1.10 WHIP at home but a 2.02 WHIP on the road. Opposing hitters bat .209 against him at home but .359 against him on the road. You get the idea. The NL East is still up for grabs and this is a series where the Braves can really help themselves. Expect them to start things off with a victory.
|07-29-18||Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5||Top||5-2||Loss||-110||10 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on Chicago/St. Louis to finish OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). Expect the bats to come to life in primetime. Gant always seems to issue a few walks and his last start (an Over) came against these same Cubs. His 4.50 ERA in four home starts is certainly nothing special. Hendricks, meanwhile, has a poor 4.70 ERA in 10 road starts, most recently a 17-run (11-6) affair at "pitcher-friendly" PetCo. He hasn't made it past five innings in any of his past three starts. One of those came against these same Cards and he gave up nine hits in 4 2/3 innings. Needless to say, that game finished above the total, as did this season's earlier start against the Cards. More of the same on Sunday night, the OVER moving to 16-8 in Cards' games for the month.
|07-28-18||Phillies -124 v. Reds||Top||2-6||Loss||-124||9 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PES FAV). The Reds took yesterday's opener but the Phillies should bounce right back this evening. Velasquez is in dominant form as he hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts (13 innings) combined. In eight road starts, he's got a stellar 2.32 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, striking out 45 in 44 2/3 innings. While Velasquez, who allowed only four hits combined his last two games, has yet to serve up a long ball this entire month, Harvey allowed FOUR HR's (8 earned runs) in his last start alone, a span of just 3 2/3 innings. The Reds lost 9-2. The Phillies have been money, when coming off a loss. For the season, they're 29-15 (+16.5) in that situation. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|07-27-18||Brewers v. Giants -140||Top||3-1||Loss||-140||28 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on S.F (10* GAME OF WEEK). In addition to being much better in their home park, the Giants have been solid against right-handers. Though Anderson, a fly-ball pitcher, typically prefers to pitch on the road, he got pounded (4 earned runs, 5 innings) in his last visit (2016) to SF. The Giants won that one by a score of 11-5. Meanwhile, the Giants are 4-0 in Bumgarner's last four starts vs. the Brewers. They won those four games by a combined score of 36-13. The Giants have also won Bumgarner's last four home starts overall, winning by a combined score of 24-9. In three of those four games, the opposing team scored one run or less. All things considered, this line could easily be higher.
|07-26-18||Diamondbacks v. Cubs OVER 9||Top||6-7||Win||100||3 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on Chicago/Arizona OVER the total (10* BEST BET). The first three games of this series have all finished below the total. Expect things to change for this afternoon's finale. Eight of Chatwood's 11 home starts have finished above the total. He's got an ugly 5.64 ERA and 1.898 WHIP in those games. Last time out, he walked six batters, striking out just two. Meanwhile, Godley walked four of his own last time out. He's got a poor 5.37 ERA and 1.684 WHIP in 11 road starts, the OVER going 6-4-1. Look for those control issues leading to the bats coming to life, these teams combining for double-digits in runs.
|07-25-18||Diamondbacks v. Cubs -107||Top||1-2||Win||100||5 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* ANNIHILATOR). While they were beaten by a tough southpaw (Corbin) in the series opener, the Cubs are still a lucrative 17-7 against left-handed starters. With Lester on the mound, I expect them to have the edge in Wednesday's series finale. While he struggled last time out, Lester is still 12-3 (7-1 in daytime starts) with a solid 3.14 ERA. Ray, on the other hand, has a 5.37 ERA on the season. He's not getting any better either, as he's 0-2 with an ugly 7.65 ERA in four July starts. All things considered, this price is a bargain. Cubs bounce back.
|07-24-18||Diamondbacks v. Cubs -165||Top||5-1||Loss||-165||11 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* MAIN EVENT). After getting thumped in yesterday's opener, expect the Cubs to return the favor this evening. Hendricks could easily have a much better record, as he's been solid all season. In 10 home starts, he's got a 3.37 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Note that Hendricks has a 2.31 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in two career starts vs. Arizona, his team winning both. Buchholz has only made one start since going on the DL in June and that start was at Double-A. Even after yesterday, the Dbax are still only hitting .224 on the road compared to Chicago's .275 mark here at Wrigley. The Cubs are 15-7 (+4.3) as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. They've also been money, when off a loss. Expect them to bounce back.
|07-23-18||Padres v. Mets -175||Top||3-2||Loss||-175||4 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK. Don't be fooled by de Grom's modest 5-4 record. He's been simply outstanding. Through 19 starts, he's got a 1.68 ERA. At home, that number dips to 1.59. He's showing no signs of slowing down either. In fact, in two July starts so far, he's got a 0.56 ERA. Luchessi gets the call instead of Lauer. (THIS IS STILL A PLAY.) Either way, no match for de Grom, who has a 1.53 ERA and 0.849 WHIP in five starts (4 Met wins) against SD. While the Mets game was rained out yesterday, the Padres had to play two games. Expect it to catch up to them here.
|07-21-18||Rockies v. Diamondbacks -122||Top||6-5||Loss||-122||12 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* PERS FAV). The Rockies took yesterday's opener by an 11-10 score. Expect the Dbax to return the favor this evening. Godley is in outstanding current form. He's 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA over his last three starts. While Godley is 5-2 at home, Freeland is 3-4 on the road. Godley already got the better of Freeland back in early June and he's 4-0 with a dominant 2.02 ERA (0.975 WHIP) in four career starts against the Rockies. His last home start against them resulted in a 7-0 victory. Arizona bounces back.
|07-20-18||Padres v. Phillies -160||Top||5-11||Win||100||28 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Phillies were on the road for a couple of weeks before the All Star Break. Now, they return home where they're an impressive 31-20 on the season and where they've beaten the Padres 11 of the past 15 meetings. With the pitching matchup significantly in their favor, expect them to improve on those stats and start the second half with a victory. Richard leads the Padres in innings pitched. However, he's got an ERA above five, when pitching away from PetCo. He's also 0-1 with a 5.29 ERA in three July starts. On the other hand, Arrieta is 2-0 with a dominant 1.89 ERA in his three July starts. For the season, he's got a stellar 2.59 ERA here at home. Phillies roll.
|07-15-18||Royals v. White Sox -121||Top||1-10||Win||100||6 h 41 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). While they may have blanked the Sox on Saturday, all is not well for the Royals. At 27-67, they're only slightly ahead of the Orioles, the team with the worst record in baseball. Giolito held the Astros (at Houston) to only three hits through 7 1/3 innings in his last start. Giolito was also sharp in his last home start, allowing only one run through 6 1/3 innings. Both of those strong efforts resulted in 2-1 Chicago losses. However, Giolito figures to get considerably more support here. Working on three day's rest, Burch Smith is slated to go for KC Sunday. However, its more of a designated "bullpen day," as Smith won't be around long. Sox bounce back.
|07-14-18||Phillies -159 v. Marlins||Top||0-2||Loss||-159||10 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* VIOLATOR). With Nola on the mound, this line could easily be much higher. The Phillies' ace is off yet another dominant performance. All he did was strike out 10 through seven shutout innings, allowing just a single hit, while doing so on the road. That gives him an awesome 0.83 ERA (0.831 WHIP) his last three starts. For the season, he's 12-2 with a superb 2.27 ERA and 0.984 WHIP. On the other hand, Richards walked seven batters in 3 2/3 innings last time out. Yikes! He's got a 6.39 ERA and 2.21 WHIP his last three. For the season, he's 2-5 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.606 WHIP. Expect Nola, who has won 6-0 and 8-1 his last two starts against Miami, to outpitch and outlast Richards, en route to another victory for the visitors.
|07-13-18||A's v. Giants -150||Top||1-7||Win||100||14 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF (10* PERS FAV). Off a win over the Cards, Bumgarner already has a stingy 2.05 ERA and 0.987 WHIP in four home starts. During that span, he's got 25 K's against just six walks. I mention the walks as they can be an issue for Jackson. He allowed four free passes in 5 2/3 innings last time out, striking out just three. In his last three starts vs. the Giants, he's walked 12 batters in 18 1/3 innings. While the Giants had yesterday off, they A's had to fly out of Houston, after upsetting the Astros during the afternoon. With the A's at 49-68 (-15.3) vs. southpaws the past 2+ seasons, expect the Giants to improve to 31-17 (+12.2) here at home.
|07-12-18||Yankees v. Indians +1.5||Top||7-4||Loss||-154||10 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing CLEVELAND on the run-line (10* VIOLATOR, +1.5 runs) In a game where runs may well be at a premium, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 with Kluber and co. For the season, Kluber is 7-1 with a 1.43 ERA and 0.797 WHIP in 10 home starts. (Severino is 6-2 with a 2.65 ERA in nine road starts.) Severino served up two home runs in five innings at Toronto in his last start. Kluber, on the other hand, tossed seven shutout innings. The Indians got back on track in a big way (19-4 win) yesterday. Expect them to ride the momentum into this evening's opener against the Yankees, en route to AT LEAST a "run-line cover."
|07-11-18||Phillies v. Mets -154||Top||0-3||Win||100||23 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Mets got another dominant performance from de Grom last time out. All their ace did was toss eight complete innings, allowing just four hits and a single run. While he didn't get the win, the Mets did finish on top. That makes it 15 straight starts that de Grom has allowed three or fewer earned runs. His 1.79 ERA is the best in baseball. His 142 K's ranks 2nd in the NL and he's 6-1 (team is 10-2) in a dozen starts vs. the Phillies. Velasquez is making his first start after a short stint on the DL. He's got a 4.79 ERA while going 5-8 this season. The Phils are 0-3 his last three starts against the Mets. All things considered, this line could easily be higher.
|07-10-18||Mariners v. Angels -145||Top||3-9||Win||100||28 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* VIOLATOR). The Angels are a long way back of the Mariners and Astros in the West. While catching them is obviously extremely unlikely, Angel fans haven't entirely given up hope quite yet. In order to keep their flickering hopes alive, they know this is a series that the need to have. I expect them to start it off with a victory. Richards has a stringy 2.59 ERA in 11 night starts, opposing hitters batting only .194. Leake, on the other hand, has an ERA above four during the evening, opposing batters hitting .278. Richards got the better of Leake on July 4th at Seattle, his first start off the DL. Now with a start under his belt and pitching at home, I expect him to do so again.
|07-09-18||Brewers -132 v. Marlins||Top||3-4||Loss||-132||10 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* PERS FAV). As of this writing, this line has come down a bit from its opener. Given the matchup, I feel we're getting excellent value with the visitors. Anderson is in outstanding current form for the Brewers. In fact, over his last three starts, he's got a dominant 1.56 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Through seven road starts, he's a got a stellar 2.88 ERA and 0.984 WHIP. As a fly-ball pitcher, this is a good venue for him. Urena, who was recently on the DL, is 2-9 with an ERA above four. His lone home start vs. the Brewers came last season and resulted in a 10-2 loss. The Miami bullpen has a combined ERA of 5.09 while Milwaukee relievers have a combined ERA of 3.11. Throw in the fact that the Brewers also hit better and you'll see why I feel this line could easily be higher. The Brewers have beaten up on sub-500 teams and they've been money when playing under the lights. Expect them to start the series/week with another victory.
|07-08-18||Rockies v. Mariners -136||Top||4-6||Win||100||8 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on SEATTLE (10* PERS FAV). The Rockies have won the first two games of the series and are red hot right now. I expect them M's to cool them down this afternoon though. Leblanc is a perfect 4-0 with a dominant 1.80 ERA in seven home starts. The M's won all seven of those games. On the other hand, Senzatela will be making his first road start of the season. While they lost yesterday's all southpaw affair, the M's are a commanding 40-21 (+20.6) against right-handed starters. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here.
|07-06-18||Rays v. Mets -161||Top||1-5||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on NY (10* PERS FAV). This is a mismatch and the line could easily be higher. Stanek has solid numbers out of the bullpen but likely won't be around long. That means we'll see more of a TB bullpen which has a combined 4.29 ERA on the road. Thats not terrible. However, its not good enough when deGrom's on the mound for the other team. On the season, deGrom has a dominant 1.84 ERA. Remarkably, he's only 5-4. Expect him to finally get some support here, the Rays dropping to 1-8 the last nine times that they played a road game with an O/U line of seven or less.
|07-05-18||Marlins v. Nationals -181||Top||12-14||Win||100||24 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* PERS FAV). Yesterday and recent results notwithstanding, these teams are at the opposite end of the food chain. The Nats have arguably under-achieved on the season while the Marlins have arguably over-achieved. Still, even after their recent skid, the Nats are comfortably ahead of the Marlins in the NL East and only the Nats are truly chasing the Braves and Phillies; the Marlins know they're already playing out the string. The Nats know that they need to make up some ground and a series vs. the Marlins is a great place to start. Lopez, a native of Venezuela, has only made one major league start. That was a home game against the Mets on "Venezuelan Heritage Day." His parents and other family members were in attendance. To his credit, the rookie rose the occasion and pitched well. However, now he's on the road against an angry Washington team. Big difference. Note that the Marlin bullpen has a terrible 5.72 ERA on the road, too. Hellickson has an outstanding 2.63 ERA over 10 starts (1.65 at home!) and he's got one under his belt, since coming off the DL. He's also pitched very well (2.88 ERA) vs. the Marlins over his career. Nats stop the bleeding.
|07-04-18||Padres v. A's -150||Top||2-4||Win||100||5 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). With yesterday's victory, the A's are now a dominating 27-11 against sub-500 teams. This afternoon provides another excellent chance to beat up on one of MLB's perennial weaklings. Manaea is 3-0 with an outstanding 2.84 ERA and 0.842 WHIP his last three starts. Now, he'll face a SD team which is just 9-17 vs. southpaw starters; the Padres hit a mere .217 and average only 3.4 runs vs. left-handers. Perdomo is 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA and 2.50 WHIP through four starts. All things considered, this line could easily be much higher.
|07-03-18||Padres v. A's -131||Top||2-6||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). The A's tend to take care of business against poor teams like the Padres. They're an impressive 26-11 (+12.7) when facing sub-500 teams. This figures to be an excellent spot to build on those stats. Bassitt comes off a gem in his last start, allowing just two hits through six shutout innings. That resulted in his first victory of the season and provides him with plenty of positive momentum. He's got a very solid 2.84 ERA through four starts. That includes a 2.45 ERA in two home starts and a superb 1.80 ERA in two starts at night. On the other hand, Richard goes for the Padres and he's got a poor 4.73 ERA on the road to go along with a 4.56 ERA under the lights. Lastly, note that the Padres are an ugly 31-63 (-17.8) the past couple of seasons, when listed as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range. A's roll.
|07-02-18||Red Sox v. Nationals -165||Top||4-3||Loss||-165||9 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* PERS FAV). The Sox got hammered by the Yankees last night and things don't get any easier here. Scherzer may not have been picking up "W's" lately but he's still been pitching great. For the season, he's got an awesome 2.04 ERA and 0.855 WHIP. At home, the WHIP drops to an insane 0.728. He's got 88 K's agains just 12 walks here. While Scherzer allowed one run on four hits (no HRs) through seven innings last time out, Porcello served up two long balls (4 runs overall) in just 5 2/3 innings.
|07-01-18||Red Sox v. Yankees -177||Top||1-11||Win||100||13 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* MAIN EVENT). After the Yankees won big in Friday's opener, the Red Sox won even bigger (11-0) yesterday. While this evening's game figures to be closer, the Yankees will have the advantage. Severino has been simply outstanding 12-2 (2.10 ERA) all season long and he's showing no signs of slowing down. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings, recording nine K's without walking a batter. That brings him to 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA his last three. While that was on the road, he's also 7-0 (Yanks are 9-0!) through nine home starts, posting a 1.83 ERA and 0.898 WHIP. It just doesn't get much better than that. While Price has pitched well of late, he was rocked his last start here at NY, giving up six runs through five innings of a 9-1 Yankee win. Even with yesterday's loss against Sale, the Yanks remain an awesome 19-6 against southpaws. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|06-30-18||Rockies v. Dodgers -167||Top||3-1||Loss||-167||9 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Dodgers stumbled yesterday. However, they've been great (17-7) in June overall and I expect them to close the month with a victory. Maeda really turned a corner last time out. Through seven complete shutout innings, he allowed a mere three hits, while striking out nine. He's got a 2.87 ERA in June overall and a 2.79 here at home. His lone start vs. Colorado this season resulted in a 3-0 victory, Maeda recording a dozen K's, while allowing just two hits through 6 2/3 innings. Marquez, on the other hand, has an ugly 8.81 ERA his past three starts overall. Dodgers bounce back big.
|06-28-18||Twins -129 v. White Sox||Top||2-1||Win||100||5 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* ANNIHILATOR). Admittedly, Odorizzi was bad last time out. However, he's at least capable of pitching well. Through six "day games" he's got a respectable 3.99 ERA. Giolito, on the other hand, is 2-4 with a terrible 9.91 ERA and 1.872 WHIP in eight home starts. Thats not a misprint. He actually allows more runs than innings pitched here. The first two games of this series notwithstanding, the Twins are the better hitting team. With the Sox at a dismal 9-30 (-19) in day games, expect the Twins to bounce back.
|06-26-18||Reds v. Braves -141||Top||5-3||Loss||-141||12 h 48 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERS FAV). While I successfully played against the Braves the last time Sanchez started, this is a far better spot. Last night's extra-inning victory provides the Braves with positive momentum. The Reds, who were on the other side, figure to be deflated. Sanchez tossed seven shutout innings in his last home start and he's got a 1.71 ERA and 0.86 WHIP here on the season. Opposing hitters are batting a mere .164 against him here. Harvey, on the other hand, is 0-4 with an ugly 6.29 ERA through seven road starts. One of those losses came here at Atlanta, as Harvey was rocked for six earned runs in taking a 12-4 loss. In fact, Harvey's teams are just 3-9 in his 12 starts vs. the Braves, Harvey personally going 3-7 while posting a poor 4.78 ERA. Braves roll.
|06-25-18||Reds v. Braves -145||Top||4-5||Win||100||23 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERS FAV). The Braves got back on track in a big way yesterday and I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's opener vs. the Reds. Mahle has been solid of late but Foltynewic has been outstanding. Mahle allowed two home runs last time out, Foltynewic allowed just two total hits. Over his last three starts, he's allowed 0 home runs, has a 25/4 K/W ration and has allowed just two runs combined. That translates to a superb 0.95 ERA and 0.684 WHIP. Throw in the fact that the Braves are also the better hitting team and this line could easiy be higher.
|06-24-18||Rangers v. Twins -180||Top||0-2||Win||100||6 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* PERS FAV). After dropping the first two games, I fully expect the Twins to bounce back with a big win on Sunday afternoon. Berrios has been solid all season and the Twins are 6-2 when he starts at home. He's got a stellar 0.877 WHIP in those games. With an outstanding 1.69 ERA his last three starts, Berrios is also currently in excellent form. Thats a lot more than can be said for Colon, who has an ugly 8.16 ERA and 1.954 WHIP his last three. No sweep here.
|06-23-18||Padres v. Giants -158||Top||3-5||Win||100||6 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF. (10* PERS FAV, Listed Pitchers) The Padres took last night's game but I fully expect the Giants to bounce back this afternoon. Suarez could easily be better than 1-2 through five home starts, as he's got a superb 0.853 WHIP (3.41 ERA) here. A closer look reveals a 29/3 K/W ratio. Lyles may be off a decent start (still lost) but lets not forget that he's got an ugly 6.75 ERA through three June starts overall OR that he's 30-52 for his career. Additionally, he's 1-3 (team 2-5) with a terrible 7.53 ERA vs. the Giants, over his career. Suarez, meanwhile, pitched very well (4 hits, 2 runs, 7 innings) in his lone start vs. SD. The Padres continue to struggle vs southpaws and they've been terrible in the role of small/med. sized underdogs for as long as anyone can recall. Giants roll.
|06-22-18||Rangers v. Twins -125||Top||8-1||Loss||-125||25 h 48 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Rangers enter this series on nice roll. However, I expect the Twins to cool them off in Friday evening's opener. Romero has made four home starts. He's 2-0 with a stellar 2.91 ERA in those games. On the other hand, Minor has a terrible 8.14 ERA through five road starts. With the Rangers averaging just 3.9 runs (and hitting only .228) per game, when playing away from Texas, expect the Twins to improve to 10-5 their last 15 in the series.
|06-20-18||Marlins v. Giants -127||Top||5-6||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF. The Giants got back on track yesterday and I expect them to follow it up with another victory this afternoon. Urena, admittedly, has pitched somewhat better than his 2-8 record indicates. However, thats what can happen when you're supported by a porous bullpen and backed by a weak-hitting lineup. Holland, who has a stellar 2.57 ERA his last three, has the edge in both those areas. It should be noted that Urena threw a career high number of pitches last time out. A closer look at his stats shows that Urena has been respectable in the evening but has been terrible when pitching during the afternoon. In fact, in four daytime starts, he's 0-4 with a 6.43 ERA. The opposite has been true of Holland, as he has pitched much better during the daytime. In four daytime starts, Holland has a stellar 2.01 ERA. Giants roll.
|06-19-18||Tigers v. Reds -125||Top||5-9||Win||100||23 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on CINCINNATI (10* PERS FAV). The Tigers enter the series on a rare 5-game winning streak. However, I expect the Reds to cool them off here. Romano was outstanding last time out, allowing just a single run, on just four hits, through eight complete innings. I like that he's walked only two batters over his last three starts. Boyd, by comparison, has walked six batters in his last two starts alone, a span of just 11 1/3 innings. While the Tigers average 3.8 runs per game vs. right-handers, the Reds average 4.3 runs per game vs. southpaws. Cincinnati draws first blood.
|06-18-18||Marlins v. Giants -145||Top||5-4||Loss||-145||14 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF (10* PERS FAV). The Marlins came back down to Earth in yesterday's finale at Baltimore. Having to travel out to the West Coast, off yesterday's loss, I expect them to stumble once again. These same starters just opposed each other on 6/13, at Miami. Playing at home, the Marlins finished on top by a score of 5-4. Not all that surprising, given the home/road stats of the pitchers. Smith has been stingy at home, where he's got a 3.13 ERA. However, he's got a 4.41 ERA on the road. The home/road difference is even more apparent with Suarez. He's got a 6.18 ERA on the road, opposing hitters batting .330. However, at home, he's got a solid 3.18 ERA and an outstanding 0.83 WHIP, opposing hitters batting just .209. While the Giant bullpen has been fairly stingy (2.75 ERA) at home, the Marlin bullpen has been terrible on the road. Suarez and co. get their revenge.
|06-17-18||Marlins v. Orioles -168||Top||4-10||Win||100||4 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). While the O's have cost me in this series, I fully expect them to bounce back this afternoon. As I've noted previously, when he's on his game, Bundy is nasty. He hasn't allowed a run in either of his last two starts, a span of 15 innings. While he got no run support last time, he should get some here. Richards has a 5.71 ERA on the road to go along with a 1.788 WHIP. No sweep here.
|06-16-18||Marlins v. Orioles -143||Top||5-4||Loss||-143||7 h 57 m||Show|
I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* PERS FAV). The O's were on the wrong side of a pitcher's duel in the opener. However, I expect them to bounce back this afternoon. Even with yesterday's loss, they're still a healthy 44-24 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range, the past 2+ seasons. Its a role that they dont find themselves in as often as they'd like, playing in the AL East. When they get there, they tend to take advantage. Cobb got roughed up at Toronto last time out. He'd been off b2b quality starts before that though and was solid in his last start here at Baltimore. Chen, on the other hand, is 0-3 with a dismal 10.31 ERA and 2.073 WHIP in five road starts. Despite averaging less than four innings per road start, he's still serving up more than a home run per road outing. O's take advantage.
|06-15-18||Marlins v. Orioles -143||Top||2-0||Loss||-143||23 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on BALTIMORE (10* PERS FAV). The Orioles have both the venue and scheudule working in their favor here. While the O's had yesterday off, the Marlins are off a extra inning (SF won in 16) game vs. the Giants. Losing figures to make that marathon take an even bigger toll. Its true that Gausman hasn't won in some time. However, each of his last three starts (and five of his last six) has come against a team from the AL East. Facing one of the weakest teams from the NL figures to help. A look at Gausman's stats show that he's had some troubles when pitching during the day but that he's quietly got a 2.91 ERA under the lights. Urena, on the other hand, has a 5.27 ERA in five road starts. Baltimore takes advantage.
|06-12-18||Nationals v. Yankees -153||Top||0-3||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on NY (10* PERS FAV). Sabathia checks in off a great start, limiting the Jays to just three hits through seven innings. He's now 3-1 with a solid 3.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 11 starts. Its been nearly a decade since he started against the Nats, so nobody is going to be too famiilar with him. (He had a 2.25 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in three starts against them.) At home, Sabathia is undefeated (Yankees are 4-2 in his six starts here) and his ERA dips down to 3.07. Of course, it helps when your team averages 5.8 runs per game at home, as the Yankees do. Roark, admittedly, could easily be better than 3-6. However, its probably bad news for him that he couldnt even get victories when he was pitching well, because lately he's starting to look more and more like the pitcher who had a 4.67 ERA last season. Over his last three appearnaces, Roark has allowed eight earned runs in 13 combined innings. Thats not entirely his fault, as the Nats didn't do him any favors by having him pitch in relief (was a disaster) in the 6/3 Braves game, after he's already thrown nearly 100 pitches in the opener of the same series. To his credit, he followed that with a quality start against Tampa. However, he'll face a far more dangerous lineup here and his rhythm may still be a little off. The Yankees, who lost Sunday night, are 98-72 (+17.2) off a loss, the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|06-10-18||Royals v. A's -170||Top||2-3||Win||100||20 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). The Royals finally snapped their losing streak yesterday. However, all is still far from being well. The Royals entered the weekend averaging only 3.9 runs per game. Meanwhile, their bullpen had a combined 5.48 ERA, converting 60% of its save chances. By comparison, the A's bullpen converts on better than 76% of its save chances, 80% at home. Entering the weekend, Oakland relievers had a combined 3.55 ERA and that number dips to 2.69 here at Oakland. The A's have the advantage at the plate too, as they were averaging 4.5 runs per game, entering the weekend, 4.7 vs. right-handers. Manaea has pitched better (0.846 WHIP in 39 home innings) than his record indicates and a date with the Royals, who he beat 8-0 in his lone start (2016) against, figures to be just what the doctor ordered. Keller has still only made two starts and thats only a total of 7 1/3 combined innings. All things considered, the line could easily be higher. Expect the A's to bounce back and close the series with a victory.
|06-09-18||Mariners v. Rays -130||Top||3-7||Win||100||20 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on TAMPA (10* PERS FAV). While its certainly been a disappointing season for the Rays overall, Snell has not been a part of that. Through 13 starts, he's 7-3 with a stellar 2.36 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Snell has done his very best work here at home, too. In five starts at Tropicana, he's 3-1 with dominant 0.86 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting just .185 against him here. These same starting pitchers just opposed each other at Seattle on 6/3. The M's won 2-1. That sure wasn't Snell's fault though, as he allowed just two hits through six shutout innings, striking out 12 along the way. Hernandez also pitched well in that 6/3 game. However, lets keep in mind that he's got a terrible 7.03 ERA through six road starts. Expect home-cooking to again put Snell over the top.
I'm playing on MIKE JACKSON. Both these fighters essentially need a win here to keep their UFC careers alive. CM Punk obviously brings the much bigger name to the table. However, Jackson is favored by this much for good reason. In fact, Punk's "big name" is actually keeping this line lower than it easily could (and otherwise) would have been. With a Muay Thai and boxing background, Jackson is a more than capable striker. I expect him to finish this one by KO.
|06-08-18||Yankees v. Mets +1.5||Top||4-1||Loss||-160||10 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing the METS on the RUN-LINE (10* ANNIHILATOR, +1.5 runs) In a game where runs could well be a premium, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 runs with DeGrom and the Mets. While Tanaka has been winning, he's still got a 4.79 ERA on the season and a 4.96 ERA his past three starts. On the road, his ERA climbs to 5.17. On the other hand, DeGrom has been in dominant form all season. Through 12 starts, he's got a superb 1.49 ERA. Over his past eight starts? He's got a 0.47 ERA with 68 K's in 47 1/3 innings. While I like the Mets to win this one outright, with three of those eight games resulting in a 1-run losses, I'll happily lay the price for the extra +1.5 runs.
|06-07-18||Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-104||10 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on Toronto/Baltimore to finish OVER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). These teams were both involved in low-scoring games yesterday. However, I expect the bats to come to life this evening. Garcia made one start against the O's in his career. That game produced 15 runs, Garcia personally allowing 10 hits (2 HRs) in 5 1/3 innings. That was way back in 2011, however, so isn't exactly relevant. What is relevant is an awful 8.02 ERA (1.702 WHIP) in his last three starts. Laat time out, he lasted just 1 2/3 innings, allowing seven hits and four runs. While Hess has been solid in a small sample size overall, he's still only made two road starts - and he's got a 1.499 WHIP in those games, allowing three home runs, in 11 1/3 innings. Note that the Jays have bounced back with much better offensive efforts, after being shutout previously this season. Expect this one to hit double-digits.
|06-06-18||Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5||Top||3-0||Loss||-100||2 h 45 m||Show|
I'm playing on NY/Toronto to finish OVER the total. Yesterday's series opener was scoreless into the 6th inning yet the teams still finished with nine runs. I expect the hot hitting from the late innings to carry over into this evening's finale. The OVER is 7-3-1 in Gray's 11 starts and he has a 5.50 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in those games. He's made two starts against Toronto this season and those games finished with 11 and 13 combined runs. Gray last justed 7 1/3 combined innings in those two starts, while giving up 12 hits and walking seven batters. Gaviglio has served up four home runs in his past two starts alone, each of those games producing double-digits in runs. Expect more of the same here. *I waited patiently to release this play, in the hope that the line might come down to 9. That hasn't (yet?) happened, so I'm going ahead and firing at the +$ price at 9.5.
|06-05-18||Mariners v. Astros -121||Top||7-1||Loss||-121||11 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* PERS FAV). The M's come in as the hotter team. However, I expect the Astros to cool them off this evening. Note that Seattle is just 28-28 the past 2+ seasons, after three or more consecutive victories. During the same stretch, Houston is a healthy 98-69, when coming off a loss. With a 3.65 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, Keuchel could easily have a much better record. Paxton has been great. However, four walks, against five K's, in five innings of his last start, shows that he may be coming back to earth. He avoided the loss in that one but the M's lost 7-6. Paxton was on the mound for only 1 1/3 innings, the last time he pitched here at Houston. He gave up four hits, two walks and three runs in that short span. Paxton got the better of Keuchel (both pitched great) in a 2-1 game at Seattle. Now pitching in his home park, expect Keuchel to get some payback tonight.
|06-04-18||Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5||Top||3-10||Win||100||12 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on Arizona/SF to finish OVER the total (10* O/U BEST BET). The Giants saw all three games against the Phillies fall below the total. However, I expect the bats to come to life this evening. Godlley has seen four of his six road starts finish above the total. No surprise given the fact that he's got an ugly 5.81 ERA and 1.903 WHIP in those games. Holland's got a 4.94 ERA on the season and a 5.75 ERA in four home starts. Games here are averaging 9.4 runs on the season and early weather reports show a healthy wind blowing out. All things considered, this line is too low.
|06-02-18||Marlins v. Diamondbacks -145||Top||2-6||Win||100||27 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Greinke loves his home cooking. He's 1-4 with an ugly 6.14 ERA, opposing batters hitting .293. However, in six home starts, he's 2-0 with a superb 1.69 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .184 against him here. Lets not forget that he was also 13-1 (2.87 ERA) here last season, while again posting a losing record (4-6) on the road. It should also be noted that he's been much better at night, than during the day, in each of those seasons. Hungry to get back in the win column, Greinke should be happy to see the Marlins as his teams are a perfect 9-0 in his nine career starts against them. Expect him to continue that dominance on Saturday evening.
|06-01-18||Rangers v. Angels -110||Top||0-6||Win||100||13 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played against the Rangers last night and I'm going against them once again tonight. Here's a matchup of a 45-year old taking on a 21-year old. With all due respect to Colon, who continues to surprise, I'm going with the youngster. Through six starts Barria is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. In four May starts, he was 3-0, his ERA dipping to 2.70, the WHIP falling to 0.99. The Angels have dominated divisional opponents. Expect them to improve to 43-27 their last 70, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range.
|05-31-18||Rangers v. Mariners -144||Top||1-6||Win||100||14 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on SEATTLE (10* VIOLATOR). The M's lost their second straight yesterday. That result notwithstanding, they've done an excellent job at bouncing back from losses this season and they should have a solid advantage here. LeBlanc hasn't earned a victory as a starter yet this season. However, that hasn't been his fault. Since moving into Seattle's starting rotation, he's made five starts. The Mariners are 4-1 in those games, LeBlanc recording a dominant 1.71 ERA. Overall, in seven evening appearances (4 starts) note that LeBlanc has a 1.52 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Minor, on the other hand, has a 5.63 ERA on the season. In four road starts, he's got an awful 8.38 ERA. Expect LeBlanc to get the better or Minor, the M's again bouncing back with an important victory.
|05-29-18||Marlins v. Padres -146||Top||5-9||Win||100||14 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO (10* PERS FAV). Some might be surprised to learn that the Padres are 16-5 the past 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. While the Marlins took yesterday's opener, San Diego should bounce back and improve on those stats this evening. Ross gets the call for the Padres and he's currently in excellent form. Last time out, he limited the Nationals to just one run, on only five hits, through 6 2/3 innings. Along the way, he recorded an impressive 9 K's, while walking just one. That marked the ninth time in his 10 starts, that Ross has gone at least six complete innings. He's got a 1.97 ERA his last three starts. In his last home start, Ross allowed just three hits and one run, through six complete innings. Admittedly, Straily has also been pitching well. However, he's still averaging less than six innings per start and a 19/17 K/W ratio reveals that he's likely ready to come back to earth. He's backed by a Miami bullpen which has been terrible on the road. Expect the Padres to continue their success as mid-sized home favorites.
|05-28-18||Reds v. Diamondbacks -153||Top||5-12||Win||100||19 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* VIOLATOR). While he still did get stuck with a loss, Koch bounced back with a much better effort last time out. Through 5 1/3 innings, he allowed a single earned run, on just three hits. For the season, though eight appearances (7 starts) he's got a solid 3.77 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. You've got to give Bailey credit for one thing. He's consistent. Consistently bad, that is. He's allowed exactly 10 hits in each of his last three starts, going 5, 4 2/3 and 5 innings. Over that 3-game stretch, in addition to giving up 30 hits, he also allowed 10 walks. That translates to a brutal 2.727 WHIP. On the season, Bailey is 1-6 through 11 starts, the team going 1-10. All things considered, the line could easily be higher.
|05-27-18||Reds v. Rockies -145||Top||2-8||Win||100||5 h 14 m||Show|
I'm playing on COLORADO (10* VIOLATOR). These team have split a pair of 1-run games so far. The Rockies won Friday's opener and the Reds took yesterday's game. For this afternoon's finale, I expect the Rockies to enjoy a significant edge. Marquez checks in off a gem. Through seven complete innings, he held the Dodgers to a mere two hits. While Harvey was also strong last time out, he's got a 6.16 ERA in four road starts. Also, his last start here at Coors (2016) resulted in Harvey giving up 11 hits (5 runs) over 5 2/3 innings. While the Reds are 59-75 in day games the past 2+ seasons, the Rockies are 70-60 (+12.1). Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|05-25-18||Royals v. Rangers -140||Top||4-8||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS (10* PERS FAV). The Royals won big yesterday but I expect the Rangers to return the favor this evening. Minor has struggled on the road. However, he's quietely been very solid at home. In five home starts, he's got a 3.72 ERA and 1.138 WHIP, striking out 26 against eight walks. Skoglund, on the other hand, has a 6.61 ERA on the road. While the Royals average 4.3 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, the Rangers average 4.6. Expect the Rangers to bounce back, improving to 35-21 their last 56, when listed as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.
|05-24-18||Red Sox v. Rays +1.5||Top||3-6||Win||100||9 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing TB on the run-line (10* PERS FAV, +1.5 runs) While he's hasn't been quite as dominant on the road, Snell has been outstanding at home. In fact, in four home starts, he's got an outstanding 1.07 ERA and 0.829 WHIP. Why take the extra +1.5 runs? In his last start here, Snell was a hard-luck loser in a 1-0 final. Though he didn't factor in the decision, Snell was also on the wrong end of a 1-0 game here against these same Red Sox, back at the end of March. In other words, if getting an extra +1.5 runs in each of Snell's four home starts, one would be a perfect 4-0. Porcello bounced back with a quality start last time out. However, he's still got an ugly 6.75 ERA (1.673 WHIP) his past three. Already this season, he's been on the mound when Boston has beaten the Rays by a single run on two separate occasions. In what could well be another close one, where runs are at a premium, I'm taking the extra +1.5 runs.
|05-23-18||Mariners v. A's -115||Top||1-0||Loss||-115||12 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* PERS FAV). Admittedly, Gossett's big league numbers weren't too good. However, he's just returned from Triple-A and his confidence should be high. Thats because he had a 1.63 ERA in seven games (5 starts) there, striking out 42 in less than 39 innings. The A's already hit Gonzales hard last month, scoring four runs against him in 3 1/3 innings. Expect the A's to bounce back, improving to 13-10 (+6.4) when coming off a loss.
|05-22-18||Braves v. Phillies -120||Top||3-1||Loss||-120||24 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF YEAR), listing Velasquez and McCarthy. These same two starters have already opposed each other three times this season. In all three cases, McCarthy's Braves came out on top. Don't expect it to happen a fourth time! For Round #4, its Velasquez who's in with much better form. Over his past three starts, Velasquez is 3-0 with a stellar 2.08 ERA, striking out 21. On the other hand, McCarthy is 0-2 with an ugly 9.42 ERA his last three starts. Overall, on the season, McCarthy has a poor 5.05 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He's been particularly bad underneath the lights, as his ERA climbs to 6.30 (1.87 WHIP) when pitching at night. Velasquez, meanwhile, has a solid 3.64 ERA when pitching during the evening. Entering the series, the Philadelphia bullpen had a 2.61 ERA (1.161 WHIP) at home, while the Braves' relievers had a combined 3.84 ERA (1.327 WHIP) on the road. Given the form of the current starters, I feel this line could easily be higher. PAYBACK TIME for Velasquez!
|05-21-18||Braves v. Phillies -124||Top||0-3||Win||100||22 h 42 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PERS FAV). These starters have already opposed each other three times this season. While Foltynewicz and the Braves did win the most recent of those meetings, the Phillies had taken the previous two. In fact, Pivetta's teams are 5-1 in his six starts against the Braves, while Foltynewicz’s teams are just 4-5 against the Phillies. Admittedly, Foltynewicz has been pretty strong on the road overall. However, the same can be said for Pivetta, here at home. In his five home starts, he's 2-1 (team is 4-1) with a 2.48 ERA and 1.000 WHIP. In 23 innings here, he's recorded an impressive 36 K's while walking just five. Foltynewicz, by comparison, has 20 K's vs. 10 walks in his road starts. Atlanta took two of three here a few weeks ago, including a 10-1 win in that series finale. Payback time on Monday.