|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|08-17-19||Tigers v. Rays -1.5||Top||0-1||Loss||-145||9 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing TAMPA on the run-line (-1.5 runs) This one's a major mismatch. Yarbrough is 11-3 with a 3.56 ERA overall. In six starts, his ERA dips to 3.16 to go along with a sparkling 0.75 WHIP. He's averaged better than seven innings in those starts, too, striking out 32 while walking only four. Last time out, he tossed a complete game 3-hit shutout, striking out eight without walking a batter. In fact, in his last two starts, he's gone 15 innings without allowing a run. Conversely, Zimmerman is 1-8 with a 7.13 ERA on the season. He just had to receive a nerve block injection last week, as he was dealing with a cervical spasm. Needless to say, thats less than ideal. Rays roll.
|08-16-19||Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 10||Top||8-3||Loss||-100||12 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA/Atlanta UNDER the total. With a 10-2 record and a 2.32 ERA, Soroka has been outstanding all season. Last time out, he allowed just three hits through seven shutout innings. Maeda was also excellent last time out. In fact, through seven shutout innings, he too allowed just three hits. He struck out six without walking a batter. The final score was 4-0. While Soroka will start against the Dodgers for the first time, Maeda has made two starts against the Braves. Those games came in 2016 and 2017. They finished with scores of 3-2 and 4-2, Maeda allowing just one combined earned run through 13 1/3 combined innings. The Dodgers gave up 13 runs yesterday, after giving up just one in each of the previous two games. The UNDER is 11-4-2 the past 2+ seasons, when they were off a game where they allowed double-digits in runs. With both starters off a gem, I expect those stats to improve here.
|08-16-19||Cardinals v. Reds -142||Top||13-4||Loss||-142||11 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I won with the Reds yesterday and I'm coming right back with them again this evening. Castillo has been outstanding all season (11-4, 2.69 ERA) and he's got a 1.50 ERA in two starts against the Cards. He's allowed one earned run or less in four straight against the Cards since last season, two earned runs or less in five straight against them. On the season, Castillo's got a 2.45 ERA and 0.941 WHIP at home. Wainwright, on the other hand, has a 6.79 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road. While Castillo has only allowed five combined runs in his last five starts against the Cards, Wainwright allowed seven in last month's start against the Reds, a span of just 3 1/3 innings. The Reds have fared well as home favorites of this size and I look for them to get it done again here.
|08-15-19||Cardinals v. Reds -160||Top||1-2||Win||100||23 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds will have a significant advantage on the mound this evening. Gray is in dominant current form. Over his past three starts, he's 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA. The Reds won those three games by a combined score of 27-11. Over his past seven starts, Gray's ERA dips to 1.59, to go along with a 0.93 WHIP. In fact, Gray hasn't allowed a single run his past two starts, a span of 13 innings. Last time out, he held the Cubs to two hits, none through the first four innings. Gray should get plenty of run support once again as Wacha is in poor current form. Over his past three starts, Wacha has a 7.71 ERA and 1.714 WHIP. Last time out, he gave up six earned runs in four innings. Look for Gray to outpitch and outlast Wacha, en route to a victory for the home team.
|08-14-19||Cardinals v. Royals +1.5||Top||6-0||Loss||-125||12 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing KC on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Keller averages 6 2/3 innings per home start and he's got a 3.51 ERA and 1.136 WHIP here. Opposing batters hit .214 against him here. Those are pretty solid numbers. By comparison, Hudson has a 4.45 ERA and 1.632 WHIP on the road, where he averages 5 1/3 innings. Keller faced the Cards earlier this season. He was excellent in that 5/22 start, as he allowed just two hits and two runs through seven complete innings, winning 8-2. I expect AT LEAST another 'run-line cover' in this one.
|08-13-19||Rays v. Padres +1.5||Top||7-5||Loss||-145||13 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing SAN DIEGO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I like the Padres' chances of winning this one 'outright,' I'm happy to grab the extra +1.5 runs. Lauer has struggled on the road but he's got a solid 2.89 ERA here at home. The Padres have won five of his past six starts here. McKay can hit, so thats one advantage that he has. However, he also has a 5.79 ERA in four starts since the All Star Break. Opposing batters are hitting .313 against him in those games. Expect Lauer and the Padres to bounce back with AT LEAST a 'run-line cover.'
|08-12-19||Rays v. Padres -128||Top||10-4||Loss||-128||12 h 48 m||Show|
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Rays are on a roll and they've dominated the Padres when these teams have met over recent years. However, I expect that all to change tonight. Lucchesi is 6-2 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.03 WHIP here at PetCo. Opposing batters are hitting a mere .186 against him here. While Lucchesi won't be giving us a complete game, he will be sticking around a lot longer than Castillo, who will serve as an 'opener' for the Rays in this one. Austin Pruitt will likely follow and he's got a 5.16 ERA on the season. The Padres, who just took three of four from Colorado, urgently need to get hot and sweep this series. While that may prove difficult, I do expect them to take tonight's opener.
|08-12-19||Reds v. Nationals UNDER 10.5||Top||6-7||Loss||-110||22 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on Cincinnati/Washington UNDER the total. Fedde was excellent last time out. Not only did the former first round draft pick toss six shutout innings but he also didn't issue a single free pass. That was significant as walks had been an issue in his previous start. Thats exactly the type of start Fedde needed and he should carry the positive momentum to the mound with him this evening. DeSclafani, who had a 2.78 ERA in four July starts, should be thrilled to see the Nationals. In seven career appearances against the Nats, he's 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA. Four of those were starts and all four of them stayed below the total. DeSclafani allowed two or fewer earned runs in each. Expect a relatively well-pitched affair which falls beneath the generously high number.
|08-11-19||Phillies v. Giants OVER 9||Top||6-9||Win||103||13 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on Philly/SF OVER the total. This series has alternated between low-scoring and high-scoring games. A low-scoring 5-0 game was followed by a high-scoring 9-6 game before yesterday's 3-1 final. I expect the pattern to continue and for the bats to come alive on Sunday Night Baseball. Its surely got a lot to do with the bone spur issue in his elbow, but Arrieta isn't what he used to be. He hasn't gone six complete innings since back in June. He's averaged five innings in his starts since that time. He's got a 4.46 ERA on the road, opposing batters hitting .296. Meanwhile, Menez has a 5.73 ERA through two starts. Look for this one to hit "double-digits." Play the OVER.
|08-11-19||Yankees -152 v. Blue Jays||Top||1-0||Win||100||17 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Jays won yesterday but I expect the Yankees to respond this afternoon. Tanaka figures to be happy about the opponent and the starting time. Thats because he's struggled when pitching during the evening. In fact, in 12 starts under the lights, he's 1-4 with a poor 6.15 ERA. However, in 11 daytime starts, he's 6-2 with a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Tanaka should get some decent run support. Thornton got rocked last time out, giving up six runs in 3 2/3 innings. For the season, he's 1-4 with a 6.58 ERA in nine starts here at Toronto. Thornton has faced the Yankees twice and has allowed nine combined earned runs in just 8 1/3 innings. On the other hand, Tanaka has gone a minimum of six complete innings in each of his past five starts against the Jays. In the five games combined, he allowed just eight earned runs, his team winning four of those. Yanks bounce back.
|08-10-19||Indians v. Twins -143||Top||1-4||Win||100||27 h 19 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. A month ago, Odorizzi came off the disabled list and got the better of Bauer. At the time, the Twins moved 7.5 games ahead of the Indians. With things now much tighter, Odorizzi gets the call for the Indians, once again. This time, he's up against Plutko, who's in there due to the trade of Bauer. Odorizzie has allowed just one earned run in each of his past two starts. He's 12-5 on the season, 6-1 (3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) here at home. Plutko has a 4.55 ERA on the season and a 5.03 ERA for his career. On the road this season, he's got a 5.31 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP, opposing batters hitting .322. I say Odorizzi and the Twins finish on top, again.
|08-08-19||Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8.5||Top||3-9||Loss||-113||14 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on Colorado/SD UNDER the total. Lauer has been money for 'under' bettors recently. In fact, his last six starts have all fallen below the total. Last time out, he held the Dodgers to two runs, on only three hits, through six complete innings. He struck out six without walking a batter. While that was on the road, he's also got a stellar 2.66 ERA in nine home starts, a 2.60 ERA at home overall. (Conversely, he's got a 6.20 ERA on the road.) In his lone home start against the Rockies, Lauer allowed a single unearned runs through five innings of no-hit ball. The final score was 3-2. Gray also likes pitching at PetCo. Indeed, he's got a 2.44 ERA in eight starts here. In four starts here since 2017, he's allowed one run in seven innings, two runs in six innings, 0 runs through seven innings and 1 run through six innings. That adds up to just four combined runs through 26 innings. Expect another well-pitched affair.
|08-07-19||Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5||Top||1-6||Win||100||24 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Arizona UNDER the total. Yesterday's game saw plenty of offense but I expect a much different type of game this evening. Gallen will be making his debut for the Dbax. He's going to be hungry for a big effort. He's made seven starts this season and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of them. Last time out, he held the Twins to just four hits and two runs, while striking out eight, through seven complete innings. He was even better in his previous start, striking out nine through seven shutout innings, giving up a mere two hits. In fact, he's got a 1.85 ERA in four starts since the All Star Break, opposing hitters batting .157. Vargas was very solid in his Phillies debut, giving them a quality start with two earned runs allowed through six complete. He struck out five against just one walk, giving up five hits. Look for a well-pitched affair, the final combined score staying beneath the number.
|08-06-19||Braves v. Twins -141||Top||12-7||Loss||-141||22 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. After last night's walk-off home run winner, the Twins bring plenty of momentum into this evening's game. With an advantage on the mound, I expect the Twins' positive momentum to carry over. Berrios was outstanding in his last start, again. Through seven shutout innings, he allowed just two hits, both of them singles. He also recorded 11 K's without walking a batter. He's now got a 0.92 ERA his last three starts! On the season, he's got a 2.10 ERA through nine home starts, averaging a healthy 6 2/3 innings in his starts here. Foltynewicz, on the other hand, was so bad that he got demoted to the minors. This will be his first big league start since June. Prior to the demotion, he had a 7.80 ERA and 1.867 WHIP his previous three starts and a 6.55 ERA through four road starts overall. Given the matchup, the Twins could easily be favored by more.
|08-06-19||Angels v. Reds -138||Top||4-8||Win||100||21 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Reds won yesterday and they'll have the edge again today. Desclafani has a 2.81 ERA (1.187 WHIP) his past three starts and a 2.94 ERA at home for the season. Suarez has a 5.70 ERA through five road starts and a 6.24 ERA his last three starts overall. The Reds have been solid as home favorites in this range and I feel that they're offering excellent value at this price. Cincy rolls.
|08-05-19||White Sox v. Tigers UNDER 9||Top||7-4||Loss||-113||7 h 12 m||Show|
I'm playing on Det/Chi UNDER the total. These teams were involved in a high-scoring series at Chicago, last month. However, I expect this evening's opener at Detroit to be considerably lower-scoring. The Tigers have now scored four runs or less in 11 of their last 13 games, including each of their past three. They average a mere 3.6 runs per game, tied with the Marlins for worst in the league. The White Sox aren't much better. In fact, they're 4.1 runs per game ranks third last, ahead of only Miami and Detroit. Last time out, Giolito allowed just one run through seven complete innings. The final score was 4-2. On the season, he's got a stellar 2.75 ERA in 10 road starts. Giolito has made two career starts at Detroit. Both were quality. The last time that he pitched here, he allowed just one run, on only three hits, through seven complete innings. The final score was 6-1. Turnbull will be making his first start since coming off the injured list. So, he'll be on a pitch count. However, I expect him to pitch well while he's in there. Turnbull was dominant in his rehab start last Tuesday for AAA-Toledo; he allowed only one hit through 3 2/3 shutout innings, striking out seven. Off yesterday's big win, look for the UNDER to improve to 11-5 when the Sox were off a win by four or more runs.
|08-04-19||Mets v. Pirates UNDER 8.5||Top||13-2||Loss||-110||15 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on NY/Pittsburgh UNDER the total. While the first two games were high-scoring, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair for Sunday's series finale. Syndergaard has made four starts since the All Star Break. Over that 4-game span, averaging better than seven innings, he's got a dominant 1.91 ERA. Through the 28 1/3 innings, he's recorded 36 K's. Last time out, he allowed a single unearned run through seven complete, striking out 11 against just one walk and only five hits. He hasn't served up a home run in any of his last three starts. Musgrove also checks in off a quality start. He allowed two runs through six complete. His lone start against the Mets resulted in a 1-0 final score. Musgrove took the loss, despite allowing a single run through seven complete. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 6-1 in Musgrove's last seven August starts.
|08-03-19||Cardinals v. A's -130||Top||3-8||Win||100||12 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND. The A's are 118-63 (+32.5) as favorites of -110 or greater, the past 2+ seasons, 82-40 as home favs of -110 or greater. With an advantage on the mound, they'll improve on those stats tonight. Fiers gives a quality start nearly every time out. In fact, he's now allowed three or fewer earned runs in 17 straight starts. He's got a dominant 2.46 ERA since late April. On the season, he's got a 1.95 ERA and 0.952 WHIP at home. On the other hand, Hudson has a 6.46 ERA his last three starts. In that 15-inning span, he's served up five home runs, three of them in his last start alone. The last time that Fiers faced the Cards (2015) he pitched a gem and won 1-0. Expect him to do his thing again this evening, en route to another Oakland victory.
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE
|08-02-19||Mets v. Pirates UNDER 9||Top||4-8||Loss||-102||12 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on NY/Pittsburgh UNDER the total. I like what I'm seeing from both these starters lately. Matz, in particular, has been outstanding. Last time out, he needed only 99 pitches to deliver a complete-game shutout (first of his career) against these same Pirates. That was on the heels of a quality start (2 runs, 6 innings) against the Giants. He's got a 1.89 ERA since the break. Williams is also back on track, after a tough stretch. Two starts ago, he struck out seven St. Louis batters, allowing one run through five innings. Last time out, he went seven complete innings, allowing two runs while holding the Mets to just three hits, once again recording seven strikeouts. That was the same game in which Matz delivered his shutout; the final score was 3-0. Both bullpens got a day off yesterday and I'm expecting another relatively well-pitched affair.
|08-01-19||Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8||Top||0-8||Push||0||12 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on the Cubs/Cards OVER the total. While I won with the 'under' in yesterday's 2-0 game, I expect the bats to come alive this evening. While he was sharp last time out, Lester, who missed a start recently due to illness, has a mediocre 4.42 ERA in nine road starts. In his last two starts against the Cards, Lester has allowed 12 combined earned runs in just nine innings. His last three starts against the Cards have finished with 13, 23 and 18 combined runs. Five of his last six against St. Louis have produced a minimum of 12 combined runs. Flaherty opposed Lester in the 13-run game. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings, giving up four earned runs. His last two against Chicago have both produced double-digits. That makes it four of his last five against the Cubs which have seen more than 10 combined runs scored. The 'over' has been money when the Cubs have been underdogs. Expect that to continue to be the case here.
|08-01-19||Rays v. Red Sox -121||Top||9-4||Loss||-121||23 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on BOSTON. The Sox are a profitable 15-5 (+8.2) the past 20 times that they were off three straight losses. Most recently, they snapped a 3-game skid on 7/2 with a 10-6 win. Desperate for a win before facing the Yankees tomorrow, I expect them to improve on those stats today. Cashner checks in off a quality start, a victory over the Yankees. That was his first victory with his new team. With that monkey off his back, he'll bring some positive momentum into this game. Cashner should be happy to see the Rays, too. Since 7/27/18, Cashner has made three starts against Tampa. His teams won all three games, Cashner allowing two or fewer earned runs in each. Overall, he allowed five earned runs through 18 combined innings. McKay hasn't started in the bigs since 7/19. In that game, facing the White Sox, he gave up five runs, on nine hits, in just three innings. Boston bounces back, big.
|07-31-19||Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5||Top||2-0||Win||100||15 h 45 m||Show|
I'm playing on Chicago/St. Louis UNDER the total. The pitchers dominated yesterday's game and I expect another well-pitched affair this evening. Hendricks has been great lately but has gotten no run support. He's got a 2.88 ERA his past five starts. That combination of quality pitching and an average of just 1.6 runs of support led to all five of those games finishing below the number. In fact, the UNDER is now 8-1 in Hendricks' last nine. Run support may well be a problem for Hendricks once again as Mikolas, who has been much better at home all season, checks in with a 2.57 ERA his past three starts. The UNDER was 2-0-1. Hendricks' last four starts against St. Louis have all been excellent. In 31 innings, he allowed just five combined earned runs. Not surprisingly, three of those four fell below the total. Meanwhile, Mikolas has seen the UNDER go 5-1 in six career starts against the Cubs. The last three times that he faced them the scores were 1-3, 2-1 and 2-1. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|07-31-19||Blue Jays v. Royals -111||Top||4-1||Loss||-111||8 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC. The Royals hit the road after this and they'd badly like a victory before they leave. I expect them to get it. Yes, Junis struggled against the Indians last time out. However, in his previous three starts he had a 1.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Facing a Toronto team which he's enjoyed success against, I expect him to bounce back with a solid effort. In two career starts (both 2017) against the Jays, he's gone more than six innings in each, while allowing just two earned runs in each. He allowed just nine total hits, none of them leaving the yard, while striking out more than he walked in both. He won by a combined score of 20-9. Junis should again get plenty of run support against the Jays as Wagnuestack has a 5.63 ERA, 5.79 when pitching on the road. Opposing batters have hit .316 against him, outside of Canada. Last time out, for the second time in three games, he walked more than he struck out. I say the Royals bounce back and avoid the sweep.
|07-30-19||Giants v. Phillies -124||Top||2-4||Win||100||13 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I like what I saw out of Smyly a lot better last time out than what I saw from Beede. Making his Phillies' debut, Smyly allowed just one run through six complete innings, while recording eight K's. On the other hand, Beede allowed 10 hits last time out, three of them leaving the yard, in 5 2/3 innings. On the season, Beede has a 5.54 ERA on the road. The Giants, who took two of three at PetCo, before having yesterday off, are just 61-82 the past 2+ seasons, against southpaw starters. During that span, they're also an ugly 27-45 (-15.2) when off a 1-run win and an awful 48-100 (-47) when off of three or more consec. road games. During that same time, the Phillies are 85-50 when playing at home with a line of -110 or greater. Expect the Phillies to grab the opener.
|07-29-19||Blue Jays v. Royals -110||Top||7-3||Loss||-110||25 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC. These teams have identical 40-67 records. Both have already been playing out the string for some time. There are several reasons why I expect the Royals to have the advantage this evening though. Here are some of them. 1. The Royals are playing at home. They're still not good here but they are considerably better here than on the road. Their home record is superior to the Jays' road record. 2. The Jays could be a bit distracted as they've already been in full on sell mode longer than KC with Stroman and Sogard both dealt yesterday. Giles (their closer) and/or others could potentially be gone before this one's done. 3. Momentum: The Royals won yesterday while the Jays blew a 7-run lead and lost a deflating 10-9 game. 4. Starting pitching: Keller was excellent last time out. He hit 98 MPH on the radar gun while tossing seven shutout innings against the Braves. He only allowed four hits. In fact, he's quietly gone 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA his past three starts, averaging better than seven innings while compiling a 17/3 K/W ratio. Pannone, meanwhile, is 0-3 with a 14.47 ERA and 2.358 WHIP as a starter this season, averaging barely three innings per start. Overall, he's 2-4 with 6.49 ERA. Keller's lone home start against the Jays resulted in a 3-1 win, as he tossed seven innings and allowed one run. The Royals are 2-0 when he starts against Toronto. It all adds up to a KC win.
|07-28-19||Indians v. Royals UNDER 9||Top||6-9||Loss||-103||8 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC/Clev. UNDER the total. I lost with the 'under' yesterday as these teams combined for 10 runs. However, that won't stop me from coming right back with the 'under' in this afternoon's matchup. Both starters are off a great effort and I'm expecting them to carry the momentum into today's game. Duffy was outstanding last time out. Through six complete innings against the Braves, he recorded 11 K's while allowing just five hits, one walk and one run. His previous start was also quality; two runs through six complete. He's now got 16 K's against just one walk, his past two outings. Note that he's been considerably better in day games than night games this season, too. Bauer was arguably even more dominant than Duffy last time out; he tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings, striking out nine while allowing just three hits. He's got 30 K's over his past three starts, all of them quality. Duffy's lone 2019 start against the Indians was a 4-0 final while the UNDER is also 7-2-1 in Bauer's last 10 starts against KC. Look for a well-pitched affair.
|07-28-19||Braves v. Phillies -131||Top||4-9||Win||100||7 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the Braves have taken the first two games of this series, I fully expect the Phillies to bounce back and avoid the sweep. Nola (8-2) has a dominant 1.51 in seven starts since he last faced the Braves. Last time out, he allowed just one run, on only four hits, through seven complete innings. While he's off a strong start, Gausman is still 3-5 with a poor 5.71 ERA on the season. On the road, his ERA climbs to .635, opposing batters hitting .316 against him. He's also got a 6.55 ERA in two daytime starts. Given the starting pitching matchup, I feel that the Phillies could easily be favored by more. They're going to be desperate and I look for them to get it done.
|07-27-19||Rangers v. A's -160||Top||4-5||Win||100||15 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND. The A's brought in Bailey to help them win some games down the stretch. The veteran gets a chance to do just that here, as Oakland badly needs a victory. I expect him to come through with flying colors. True, Bailey was shaky last time out. However, in his start before that, which was his A's debut, he was held Seattle to two runs through six complete, winning by a 10-2 score. Going back further finds that Bailey was 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA in his previous nine starts, prior to his last outing. In six of those nine starts, he allowed two or fewer earned runs. Note that in his two starts for the A's, he was great in the one here in Oakland and that in was on the road (Houston) where he struggled. While Bailey struggled last start, Sampson has struggled all season. He's got an ugly 9.82 ERA and 1.91 WHIP his last three. For the season, he's 0-6 with a terrible 10.29 ERA and 1.965 WHIP, when starting on the road. Expect Bailey and the A's to bounce back with a much-needed win.
|07-27-19||Indians v. Royals UNDER 9.5||Top||9-1||Loss||-114||25 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing Cleveland/KC UNDER the total. Clevinger has been money ever since returning from injury. Over four July starts, he's got a 1.88 ERA. The first of those four starts came against these same Royals. Clevinger tossed six complete innings in that 7/3 game. He allowed just four hits, striking out nine without walking a batter. Sparkman faced the Indians in his last start. He allowed four runs through six complete innings. Not terrible but not great either. However, that was at Cleveland. Now, he faces the Tribe in his home park, where he's been much much better. In nine road games, six starts, Sparkman has an ugly 8.73 ERA. However, in 10 home games, five starts, he's got a sparkling 1.76 ERA. In those five home starts, Sparkman's ERA dips to a dominant 1.03. Last time on this mound, he tossed nine shutout innings. He was brilliant in that one, allowing just five singles. Expect a well-pitched affair, the final combined score staying beneath the number.
|07-26-19||Giants v. Padres UNDER 8||Top||2-1||Win||104||16 h 42 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF/SD UNDER the total. Both these starters should be happy to see PetCo Park. Samardzija, who has a 2.89 ERA and 0.803 WHIP his last three overall, has a stellar 2.42 ERA here for his career. In his last three starts here, he's allowed just three combined earned runs, through 22 innings. Thats an average of more than seven innings per start, allowing an average of just one run. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last four against the Padres overall. After struggling at Wrigley last time out, Lucchesi is also going to be happy to get home. On the season, he's got a 2.83 ERA and 1.037 WHIP here. Two of Lucchesi's three 2019 starts against SF stayed below the total. The only time he faced them at PetCo this season, Lucchesi didnt allow a run and the final score was 4-1. Since a few high-scoring games to begin the month, the Padres have seen the UNDER go 13-3 their last 16. Yesterday, they failed to score a single run. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair.
|07-24-19||Marlins v. White Sox UNDER 9.5||Top||2-0||Win||100||26 h 19 m||Show|
I'm playing on Miami/Chicago UNDER the total. A look at the overall stats from either starter isn't that impressive. Gallen has a solid 3.63 ERA but an 0-2 record. Lopez, meanwhile, is 5-8 with a poor 5.76 ERA. However, I really like the direction in which each of them is trending. Gallen went h2h with Ryu last time out. He allowed two runs, only of them earned. The Marlins lost 2-1. Miami manager Don Mattingly had this to say of Gallen's effort: "I thought he attacked, got himself in good counts, stayed on the hunt. That's the kind of game that’s really good for him." Lopez, who will be happy to see the lowest scoring team in baseball, has quietly been outstanding his last two starts. Over that 13 inning span, he's allowed just two total runs, striking out 15 while walking only three. After striking out eight and winning his last start, Lopez commented: "It makes you feel excited and happy. That's something that gives you some extra energy. To see everybody pushing, seeing everybody trying to do their best, hustling, that’s something that lets you know you also need to do your job and execute and help the team in every particular aspect of the game. It's fun, and it's nice when you see that and you feed off of that energy." Expect Lopez to carry his positive second half momentum into this one, the final combined score ultimately falling below the number.
|07-24-19||Padres v. Mets -147||Top||7-2||Loss||-147||24 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK. I expect the Mets to have a major edge on the mound in this one. When he's on his game, Syndergaard is a dominant pitcher. Thats absolutely been the case of late. Syndergaard has gone seven innings in each of his last two starts, striking out a total of 17, while walking only one, during the 14 inning stretch. Over those two games, he allowed just three combined runs. The trade deadline is fast approching and reports are the Padres are among the teams which covet Syndergaard. Expect him to show San Diego just how dominant he can be. Syndergaard should get plenty of support. Lamet has a 5.14 ERA through three starts. Last time out, he lasted just four innings against the light-hitting Marlins, giving up six hits in the process. He has yet to go more than five innings. Syndergaard has faced the Padres three times at PetCo but only once at New York. In that game, he tossed eight shutout innings, allowing just three hits. He had nine K's without walking a single batter, en route to a 4-0 victory. Syndergaard, a rookie at the time, retired the first 18 batters he faced. In what has a chance of being his final start here as a Met, expect him to get the better of Lamet, en route to a victory for the home team.
|07-23-19||Cardinals v. Pirates -120||Top||4-3||Loss||-120||11 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Cards took yesterday's game but I fully expect the Pirates to bounce back this evening. Archer has quietly delivered b2b quality starts, the most recent coming against these same Cardinals. Over that 12 inning span, he's got an impressive 18 K's while walking just four. While he's had trouble on the road, Archer has been respectable at home. Hudson has also been much better at home; he's got a poor 1.58 WHIP on the road. Opposing batters hit .279 against him, away from St. Louis. In addition to giving up a fair number of hits, over his last three starts, he's walked nine batters in 16 innings. In two starts against the Cards this season, Archer has allowed only three combined runs and just seven total hits, while striking out 16, through 11 innings. Hudson only made one start against Pittsburgh and he gave up nine hits, while striking out two. Look for the Pirates to move to 90-60 (+11.8) the past 150 times that they were favored by -110 or greater.
|07-22-19||Orioles v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5||Top||3-6||Win||100||28 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on Baltimore/Arizona UNDER the total. Ray has been more than solid for the Dbax. In eight starts here, he's got a 3.45 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, striking out 64 in 44 1/3 innings. Opposing batters hit only .199 against him here. Ray has been excellent this month, too. In three July starts, he's 3-0 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, opposing hitters batting .156. While Brooks hasn't been going deep into games, he's also only allowed a single run in his last two starts combined, a 1.69 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting .133 against him this month. With Brooks not expected to go deep, note that Wojciechowski gave the Oriole bullpen a nice break yesterday, as he went 7+ innings in the 5-0 win over Boston. Look for the UNDER to improve to 11-6-3 when Arizona plays a home game with an O/U line of nine or 9.5.
|07-22-19||Marlins v. White Sox -125||Top||1-9||Win||100||29 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO. I successfully played against the White Sox when Nova was on the mound on 7/12. So, I'm aware that he's been struggling. I believe that this evening's game offers him the perfect opportunity to get back on track. Not just because the Marlins hit the fewest home runs (and score the fewest runs) in baseball either. Nova has dominate the Marlins, so he's going to come in with some extra confidence. Indeed, he's 4-0 with a superb 0.98 ERA in four career starts vs. Miami. Nova was actually very sharp in his last home start, blanking the Cubs through 5 1/3 innings. Richards is 3-11 on the season and he's not getting any batter. Indeed, he's walked eight batters in his two July starts, while allowing 14 hits, a span of just 10 innings. That translates to an ugly 2.20 WHIP. Back home and catching the Marlins traveling across the country from LA, expect Nova and the White Sox to grab the opener.
|07-21-19||A's v. Twins -140||Top||6-7||Win||100||21 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Consistency counts. One might be surprised, given his mediocre overall numbers, but Pineda (6-5, 4.38 ERA) has been remarkably consistent. In fact, over his past dozen starts, he's allowed more than three earned runs only once. After shaking off an ugly April, which saw him compile a 7.20 ERA, he's just gotten better and better. He had a 4.50 ERA (0.97 WHIP) in May, a 3.58 ERA in June and so far through two July starts, he's got a 1.50 ERA. Off another excellent outing, he's now allowed just one earned run in five of his past six. Prior to a strong start against Seattle, Mengden had arguably been going the other way, as he had a 6.48 ERA in June, after a much better May. The Twins will be seeing him for the second time in three weeks; they scored five runs, on eight hits, in just five innings against him on July 2nd. Mengden was very fortunate to still win that game (8-6) but he's highly unlikely to get that kind of run support against red hot Pineda. While the Twins just got a look at Mengden, the A's havent seen Pineda yet this season, another factor working in his favor. Pineda's last two starts against Oakland came in 2016 and 2017, when he was with NY. His team won both of them. Expect more of the same Sunday afternoon.
|07-21-19||Rockies v. Yankees UNDER 10.5||Top||8-4||Loss||-110||7 h 48 m||Show|
I'm playing on Colorado/NY UNDER the total. While I won with the Yankees/Rockies 'over' the number yesterday, I'm expecting to see far better pitching this afternoon. The big difference is that I respect Marquez a lot more than yesterday's starter, Senzatela. True, Marquez wasn't very good last time out. In fact, he was terrible. However, that can happen sometimes at Coors. He's far better on the road, where he boasts a 3.30 ERA and a stingy 0.90 WHIP. Naturally, he's going to be highly motivated to bounce back with a much better performance. Paxton has been sharp since returning to the rotation. He's got a 2.50 ERA in July, striking out 21 in 18 innings. All three of his July starts have been quality. On the season, he's got a 3.22 ERA through nine home starts. With all due respect to the offenses, this number is too high. Go with the Under.
|07-20-19||Royals v. Indians UNDER 11||Top||1-0||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC/Cleveland UNDER the total. While the Indians erupted for 10 runs yesterday, they're still one of the lower-scoring teams in the league. They average 4.6 runs per game, just 19th in baseball. They also rank 20th, in terms of average. Note that the UNDER is 28-18-2 the past 2+ seasons, after they scored double-digits in runs in their previous game. KC averages even fewer runs than Cleveland. The Royals rank just 25th in baseball in scoring, 28th in terms of home runs. Plutko held the Royals to a single run when he faced them last month. While he only went four innings in that one, he gave up just one hit and didn't walk a batter. The final score was 3-2. He's got a start under his belt, since returning to the rotation, and I expect another fairly solid effort from him here. Junis has turned the corner recently. Two starts ago, he limited Washington to two runs through seven complete innings. Last time out, he was even better. Once again, he went seven complete innings. This time, he allowed just one run, while striking out 10. I won with the 'under' in that one and I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here.
|07-20-19||Cardinals v. Reds -130||Top||2-3||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Cards won a wild one yesterday but I expect the Reds to return the favor today. Castillo has been brilliant all season, particularly here at home. In 10 starts here, he's got a superb 1.83 ERA and 0.875 WHIP. On the other hand, Mikolas has been terrible on the road. In nine starts away from St. Louis, he's got an ugly 7.40 ERA and 1.669 WHIP. The last time that Mikolas faced Cincy, the Reds won 12-1. On the other hand, the Reds are 4-0 in Castillo's last four starts against the Cards, winning 4-1, 4-0, 2-1 and 8-2. Castillo allowed just four combined runs through those four games! The Cards, 9-18 as road underdogs, are just 4-9 their past 13, when coming off three straight divisional wins. Look for the Reds to move to 3-0 their last three, when attempting to avenge a loss where their opponent hit double-digits in runs.
|07-19-19||A's v. Twins UNDER 10.5||Top||5-3||Win||100||13 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on Oakland/Minneosta UNDER the total. Both this evening's starters were sharp last time out. Odorizzi limited the Indians to three hits and one run. The final score was 6-2. On the season, Odorizzi has a stellar 2.27 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in eight home starts. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 9-3-1 his last 13 starts here. Bassitt tossed six shutout innings in his last start, allowing just four hits. In four appearances (1 start) vs the Twins, he's got an excellent 1.54 ERA. Expect a relatively well-pitched affair, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number.
|07-18-19||Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 9.5||Top||6-7||Loss||-119||15 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA/Philadelphia UNDER the total. Nola goes for the Phillies and he's currently in outstanding form. Last time out, he struck out nine over six innings, allowing a single run. That gives him a superb 0.87 ERA his past three starts. In fact, he's got a 0.76 ERA his past five. On the season, Nola has a 2.74 ERA in 12 home starts, much better numbers than he has on the road. The UNDER is 3-0-1 his past four starts here. Stripling was also sharp last time out, delivering arguably his best start since taking Hill's spot in the rotation. He limited the Red Sox to a single run, striking out seven without walking a batter. On the season, he's got a solid 3.22 ERA through five road starts. Four of those fell below the number. Nola has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all three career starts against the Dodgers, just six runs in the three games total. Stripling has a 2.45 ERA during the afternoon this season. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|07-17-19||Giants v. Rockies -168||Top||11-8||Loss||-168||9 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on COLORADO. While I lost with the Rockies yesterday, I'm coming right back with them today. Pitching at Coors can be tough but Gray has cracked the code. In nine home appearances, eight starts, he's 4-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Over his last seven games overall, Gray is 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA. Anderson, a rookie, will be making his first career start at Coors. Again, thats not always so easy. Over his past three starts, Anderson has an ugly 6.13 ERA to go along with a 1.772 WHIP. His last road start came at PetCo and he allowed four earned runs, on eight hits, in just four innings. Gray has been excellent in both this season's starts against SF. He allowed 0 runs through six innings last time he faced them and one run through 6 2/3 innings in his previous start against them. No sweep here!
|07-16-19||Giants v. Rockies -125||Top||8-4||Loss||-125||25 h 12 m||Show|
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Rockies got absolutely embarrassed in yesterday afternoon's opener. Then, they lost again in the nightcap. Overall, they were outscored by a 21-3 combined score on the day. That's going to have them thinking payback today. I expect them to get some. Admittedly, Lambert has had some trouble at Coors Field so far this season. However, he was respectable in his last start here - after giving up a pair of early HR's, he settled down and eventually allowed just four runs overall. That was against the Astros, too, one of the better hitting teams in the league. Now, he'll face the second lowest-scoring team in the NL. Lambert figures to get plenty of support. Not only are the Rockies itching for some payback, they're also facing a struggling pitching in Pomeranz. Last time out, Pomeranz gave up four runs in four innings. On the season, he's 2-9 with an ugly 6.42 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Pomeranz has been particularly bad on the road. Indeed, he's 1-4 with an awful 9.76 ERA and 1.99 WHIP in seven starts away from SF. Opposing hitters are batting .336 against him on the road. Even factoring in last night's loss, the Rockies are still a healthy 17-8 the past 25 times that they were favored in the -125 to -175 range. Expect them to bounce back with a big win.
|07-15-19||Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 10.5||Top||8-10||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on Toronto/Boston OVER the total. Fans of good pitching may want to steer clear of this one; both these starters are in horrible form. Thornton has an ugly 9.00 ERA and an awful 2.00 WHIP his last three starts. Amazingly, Porcello has been even worse. Over his past three starts, the Boston right-hander posted a dismal 12.75 ERA and 2.33 WHIP. Over that 12-inning span, he gave up 17 earned runs! The first of those came vs. the Jays. Porcello allowed five runs on eight hits, walking twice as many (4) as he struck out. Since then, his next two games have produced 46 combined runs, a 17-13 score and a 10-6 one. Speaking of 10-6 scores, the Sox saw Thornton less than two weeks ago. In just three innings, they pounded out 11 hits (7 earned runs) against him, en route to another 10-6 final. Both his career starts vs Boston have produced a minimum of a dozen runs. Six of Porcello's last eight against the Jays have produced a minimum of 11 combined runs. Expect more of the same Monday!
|07-14-19||White Sox v. A's UNDER 10||Top||2-3||Win||100||16 h 57 m||Show|
I'm playing on Chicago/Oakland UNDER the total. While yesterday's game was high-scoring, I expect a lower-scoring contest this afternoon. Anderson has quietly been very solid for quite some time now. In fact, he's quietly allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. Not surprisingly, six of his last eight starts, including each of his past two, have stayed below the total. Lopez didn't have a good first half but the second half offers a chance for a fresh start. Pitching at Oakland figures to get him going. In his lone start here, Lopez recorded 10 K's while allowing just four hits through six complete innings. Yesterday notwithstanding, the 'under' has been profitable when Chicago plays on the road and also when Oakland plays at home. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|07-13-19||Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9||Top||1-4||Win||100||12 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on Detroit/KC UNDER the total. While yesterday's game was high-scoring, I expect pitching to take center stage on Saturday. Yesterday's game featured the Royals with a southpaw aned the Tigers with a right-hander. Today's game is the opposite (Detroit has a left-hander and KC has a right-hander) and that will favor the pitchers. Over his past two starts, Boyd has an absolutely dominant 24/1 K/W ratio. Yes, he's struck out 24 in 12 innings! (In his last two starts against the Royals, he has 16 K's vs. just three walks.) Boyd will face a KC team which is just 8-17 (.241 avg.) vs southpaw starters. Meanwhile, Keller will take on Detroit lineup which averages just .230 against right-handed starters, while going a dismal 22-47. Keep in mind that these are the two lowest-scoring teams in the entire American League. Go with the UNDER!
|07-07-19||Padres v. Dodgers -154||Top||5-3||Loss||-154||11 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* FIRST HALF GAME OF YEAR). While the Padres have scored back-to-back upsets, we can expect a much different result this afternoon. The last time that Lucchesi pitched here at LA, the Dodgers won 14-0. Lucchesi lasted just 3 2/3 innings, got taken deep three times and gave up seven earned runs. In fact, the Dodgers are a perfect 4-0 when Lucchesi has taken the mound. On the season, Lucchesi is 6-2 with a solid 2.76 ERA at home but 0-2 with an ugly 6.10 ERA on the road. Stripling gets another start in place of Hill. I like the seven K's he produced last time. Facing a team which he's had success against, I expect him to build off that effort here. Note that Stripling made four starts against the Padres in 2018 and only gave up two total earned runs. The Dodgers are a dominant 17-5 in day games, which goes hand-in-hand with their 13-1 record on Sundays. Going back further finds them at 78-37 (+18.6) in day games, the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to bounce back with a big win here.
|07-07-19||Phillies v. Mets UNDER 8.5||Top||8-3||Loss||-120||7 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing on NY/Philly UNDER the total. (10* Blue Chip) While yesterday's game was high-scoring, I expect pitching to take center stage this afternoon. Both starters are in excellent form. Nola has allowed just one earned run over his past three starts, a span of 23 innings. Over that span, he's struck out a dominant 28. That translates to a 0.39 ERA! He's got a very stingy 0.696 WHIP to go along with it. Wheeler has been nearly as good. Over his past three starts, he's allowed just four runs, good for a 1.86 ERA. These same two starters just squared off on 6.27. Both were excellent. That game was a terrible beat for those who had the UNDER as it was 0-0 into the bottom of the 6th and 1-0 going into the ninth. Then, the teams combined for 8 runs in the ninth inning. That won't happen here. Expect a well-pitched affair.
|07-06-19||Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 11||Top||8-1||Win||100||20 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on Baltimore/Toronto UNDER the total. Yesterday's game produced just five runs. With both starters in good current form, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Cashner, who could find himself on a contender before too long, had a dominant 1.44 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in four June starts. He didn't serve up a home run the entire month. When Cashner faced the Jays earlier this season, he tossed six shutout innings. The final score was 2-1. Going back further finds that his last six starts against the Jays have all finished with fewer than 10 combined runs. In fact, there were only 33 runs scored in the six games combined, just 5.5 rpg. Admittedly, Richard's overall numbers are pretty ugly, a big part of the reason for the high O/U number. However, he's turned the corner of late. I won with the Jays in Richard's last start, a home win over the Royals. That was his second straight quality outing, the first coming at Yankee Stadium. Richard faced the O's a couple of times earlier in his career. Both those starts finished with single digits in runs. The Under has been money when the Jays were home favorites of this size. Look for this one to finish below the generous number.
|07-05-19||Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9||Top||0-8||Win||100||23 h 45 m||Show|
I'm playing on Colorado/Arizona UNDER the total. With both starters in excellent current form, I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. Greinke is 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP on the season. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings. Senzatela loves pitching away from Coors lately. He's 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA his past three on the road. He also thrives against Arizona. Over his last three starts vs. the Dbax, Senzatela has allowed just four combined runs in 19 2/3 combined innings. Not surprisingly, all three of those games stayed below the total. In fact, he's seen five straight starts against Arizona finish Under the number. As for Greinke, he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts against Colorado. The Rockies, who lost 4-2 on Wednesday, have seen the UNDER go 40-22-5 the past 2+ seasons, when off a loss of two runs or less. Expect those stats to improve this evening.
|07-04-19||Angels v. Rangers -129||Top||3-9||Win||100||24 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS. I like the home team on July 4th at Arlington. Lynn is in excellent current form and he's had recent success against the Angels. He's 10-3 with a 3.68 ERA his last 15 starts, 4-0 with a 2.90 ERA (0.92 WHIP) his last six. Last time out, he struck out 10 Tampa hitters, allowing just three hits and one walk, through eight dominant shutout innings. Over his last three starts against the Angels, a span of 18 2/3 innings, he's allowed just five combined earned runs, two runs or less in all three games. After a strong May, Canning was 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in five June starts. Note that the Angels are just 34-51 (-9.1) the past 2+ seasons as road underdogs of +150 or less. Look for the Rangers to improve to 35-15 (+13.1) the past 50 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range.
|07-03-19||Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8||Top||4-5||Loss||-100||28 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on Arizona/LA UNDER the total. Buehler struggled last time out. However, that was at Coors Field and he still finished June with a superb 2.45 ERA. Here at home, he's 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA and a dominant 0.77 WHIP. Opposing batters have hit only .185 against him here. When Buehler faced Arizona earlier, he allowed just one run and two hits through eight complete innings. In that start, Buehler had 11 K's without walking a single batter. Including that 3-1 final score, three of Buehler's four career starts vs. Arizona have fallen below the total. Kelly, who will have the advantage of starting against LA for the first time, had a stingy 2.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in six June starts. Expect a well-pitched affair.
|07-02-19||Red Sox -162 v. Blue Jays||Top||10-6||Win||100||28 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on BOSTON. While I backed the Jays yesterday, I'm going against them here. Price gets the call and thats never a welcome sight for Jays' fans. Over his career, Price is an absolutely dominant 22-3 with a 2.37 ERA. Last time out, Price limited Chicago to two runs through six complete innings. He had an impressive nine K's without issuing a single walk. In his previous start, Price held the Twins to a single run. On the other hand, Thornton allowed five runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his last start alone. On the season, through seven home starts, he's 0-3 with a terrible 6.39 ERA. Expect Price to get the better of Thornton, the Sox drawing first blood in the series.
|07-01-19||Royals v. Blue Jays -119||Top||4-11||Win||100||21 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO. Richard has faced some tough opponents of late; his last three starts came at Houston, vs. LA and at NY. He's gotten progressively stronger in each. Last time out, he limited the Yankees to three runs through six complete innings. Not bad, for Yankee Stadium. Now, facing a far less intimidating lineup, I expect him to bring some positive momentum to the mound. Richard last faced the Royals way back in 2011. He won 4-2 that day, while pitching for the Padres. Richard should get plenty of run support. Not only are the Jays swinging the bats well these days but Sparkman has a terrible 7.85 ERA on the road, opposing hitters batting .299. Playing in front of the Canada Day crowd, expect the Jays to close out the series with a win.
|06-29-19||Royals v. Blue Jays UNDER 9||Top||5-7||Loss||-101||23 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing KC/Toronto UNDER the total. Both starters are in excellent form and I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. Last time out, perhaps auditioning himself, Stroman tossed six shutout innings at Boston. He has a 2.76 ERA in seven road starts. Thats three straight quality starts; he's allowed just four combined runs in 19 innings. Bailey has quietly been even better. Over his last three starts, also a span of 19 innings, he's allowed just one run. Overall, in five June starts, Bailey has a 2.51 ERA. Stroman, who has a superb 1.83 ERA in six daytime starts this season, has made three starts against the Royals since 2016. All three of those finished below the total. More of the same Saturday afternoon.
|06-28-19||Braves v. Mets -118||Top||6-2||Loss||-118||28 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK. After getting swept 4-0, the Mets are going to be very happy to get home and away from Philadelphia. While I successfully played against them in three of the four games at Philadelphia, this is a great spot for the Mets to get back on track. Jacob de Grom has been in top form for quite some time now. Over his last seven starts, de Grom has a stellar 2.40 ERA. Over that 45 inning span, he's got an impressive 54/6 K/W ratio. In fact, over his last three starts, all of them quality, de Grom has 27 K's with 0 walks. While Soroka got off to an excellent start, he's started to cool off. Last time out, he got hit in the arm and lasted only two innings. Prior to that, however, he'd allowed 16 hits and eight earned runs in two starts, a span of just 11 innings. The last time that de Grom faced the Braves, the Mets won 14-2. The last time that he faced them at NY, the Mets won 3-0. In that one, de Grom allowed just two singles through eight shutout innings, striking out 10. Look for de Grom to get the better of the rookie in this one, en route to an important win for the Mets.
|06-27-19||Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 7.5||Top||8-5||Loss||-110||27 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing Washington/Miami UNDER the total. Last night's game was a tough loss for 'under' bettors. The score was 1-0 going into the 6th and 4-1 going into the 9th, yet the game still found its way over the number. Don't expect it to happen again as both today's starters are in excellent current form. The Marlins still score the fewest runs in baseball and now they're up against a red hot pitcher in Strasburg. Over his last 11 starts, Strasburg is 9-0 (Nats are 11-0) with a dominant 1.67 ERA. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 6-3-1 his last 10. Alcantara, meanwhile, has an outstanding 1.71 ERA his last five starts. Last time out, he held the Phillies to one run through 7 2/3 innings. Each of Strasburg's last five starts at Miami has produced seven or fewer combined runs. Those games had scores of 5-0, 4-2, 5-2, 2-1 and 7-0. Strasburg allowed a mere two runs in the five games combined, a span of 33 innings. In fact, in four of the games, he allowed 0 runs. Absolutely dominant. Expect a well-pitched affair.
|06-26-19||Mets v. Phillies -130||Top||4-5||Win||100||23 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I've successfully backed the Phillies each of the past two days and I'm coming right back with them today. When Pivetta faced the Mets earlier this season, the Phillies won 14-3. While his overall numbers still aren't great, Pivetta is 2-1 with a respectable 3.94 ERA since rejoining the team, after getting sent down to Triple-A. Vargas, who has a 4.65 ERA and 1.516 WHIP on the road, hasn't even lasted five innings in either of his last two starts. When he faced the Phillies earlier, the Mets lost 6-0. With yesterday's win, the Phillies are 80-49 the past 2+ seasons, as favorites of -110 or greater. After their 7-game slide, they've now got momentum back in their corner. I say they keep on rolling for another day.
|06-25-19||Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 9.5||Top||5-3||Win||100||21 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on Texas/Det UNDER the total. In all of baseball, these teams are tied for last in terms of the number of times (9.8) that they strike out. The Tigers are also tied with the Marlins for last place, in terms or runs scored. They manage just 3.5 per game. Both bullpens are fresh, as both teams had yesterday off. The Rangers closed out their series with Chicago by winning back-to-back games. Thats noteworthy as the UNDER is 17-5 when they were off two or more consecutive victories. The Tigers, who have only scored three combined runs in their past two games, have seen the UNDER go 13-7-3 when off a loss by four or more runs. Chavez's last two starts against Detroit had scores of 5-3 and 1-0. Zimmerman's two career starts vs. Texas had scores of 3-1 and 5-1. In his last start against the Rangers, Zimmerman allowed just one run through eight complete innings. He gave up only four hits and 0 walks, while striking out 11. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
|06-24-19||Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 10.5||Top||8-10||Win||100||21 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on New York/Toronto OVER the total. Sabathia's last start against the Jays resulted in a 8-7 slugfest. Despite Sabathia lasting only 2 1/3 innings, he managed to serve up three home runs. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair. The Jays are swinging the bats well right now. They've scored six or more runs in five straight and seven of their last eight. Ditto for the Yankees, who have now have hit home runs in 26 games, a franchise record. They'll face struggling Aaron Sanchez who is 0-3 with a terrible 13.50 ERA and 2.368 WHIP his last three starts. Over that 12 2/3 inning span, Sanchez has served up five home runs and 20 runs (19 earned) overall. On the season, he's 3-6 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in nine road starts. Not surprisingly, six of those finished above the number. His last two starts finished with scores of 11-6 and 15-2. Each of Sabathia's last two starts have also produced 12 or more combined runs. Look for the OVER to improve to 6-1-1 when the Jays were listed as underdogs of +200 or greater.
|06-24-19||Mets v. Phillies -122||Top||7-13||Win||100||10 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Mets are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting swept by the Marlins and the Nationals before that, the Phillies desperately need a win. With Eflin, they've got the right guy on the mound to get one. Eflin has a stellar 2.13 ERA and 0.992 WHIP through six home starts. Last time here, Eflin allowed two runs on just five hits, through eight complete innings. He recorded nine K's against only one walk. Yet, the Phillies provided him with no run support in a 2-0 loss. That shouldn't be an issue as Matz has an ugly 6.21 ERA through eight road starts. Last time out, he gave up five runs in five innings. He got taken deep twice in that short span, while walking more (4) than he struck out (2). Speaking of bad outings, the last time that Matz pitched here at Philly, he didn't record a single out, yet managed to allow eight runs, six of them earned. Including that result, the Phillies are 3-0 the last three times that they faced Matz here, winning by a combined score of 28-11. Expect another big win.
|06-23-19||Angels v. Cardinals -130||Top||6-4||Loss||-130||21 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Cards have taken the first two games of this series and I like their chances of completing the sweep this evening. Mikolas has a stellar 2.88 ERA and 0.887 WHIP through eight home starts. Last time out, he tossed six shutout innings. Skaggs also pitched well last time out. However, he's still got a poor 5.27 ERA on the road. While Mikolas averages 6.6 innings per home start, Skaggs averages 5.3 innings per road start. LA relievers have a 4.67 combined ERA on the road while St. Louis relievers have a 3.83 mark at home. With Trout in the lineup, the Angels may often look tempting when listed as underdogs. They haven't fared well in that role though. They're 48-75 as road underdogs the past few seasons, 32-51 (-11.5) as road underdogs in the +100 to +150 range. During the same span, the Cards were 59-42 as home favorites of -150 or less. That includes a 13-3 mark in that role this season. In what may be Pujols' final game ever here, break out those brooms, Cards' fans.
|06-23-19||Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5||Top||2-3||Win||100||23 h 19 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF/Arizona UNDER the total. The UNDER is a healthy 71-52-3 in Arizona day games the past few seasons. I expect those stats to improve Sunday. Admittedly, Kelly wasn't great last time out. However, given that he was 3-0 with a dominant 0.81 ERA in his previous three starts, I'm willing to cut him a little slack. On the season, through seven home starts, he's got a solid 3.05 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He's averaged better than six innings per start here and he's got 40 K's vs. only four walks. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was a healthy 5-1-1 in those games. Anderson has a respectable 3.86 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through three road starts, averaging slightly over six innings per. His last three starts have all been quality. Anderson's lone starts against Arizona finished with eight combined runs. Kelly's lone start against SF finished with seven runs, Kelly allowing none of them. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
|06-22-19||Braves v. Nationals -125||Top||13-9||Loss||-125||23 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Nationals spotted the Braves a 3-0 lead yesterday but still rallied for a 4-3 win. I expect them to have the advantage right out of the gate in this one. Since returning from injury, four starts ago, Sanchez has a dominant 1.54 ERA. Over that 4-game stretch, opposing hitters are batting a mere .183 against Sanchez. The first of those four starts came against these same Braves. Sanchez allowed a single hit through six shutout innings. The Nats won that one by a score of 14-4. That was the first time that Sanchez had started against the Braves in several years; his previous start against them saw him win 10-0, striking out 17. Sanchez figures to get decent support once again; Foltynewic is 3-7 with a 5.53 ERA on the season. Despite averaging 5 1/2 innings, he allows an average of 1.5 HR's per start. The Nats have been playing very well of late and have gotten themselves back into contention. Off five straight wins, they can climb to .500 with a win here. Expect them to keep rolling for another day.
|06-21-19||Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5||Top||2-4||Win||100||29 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on Colorado/LA UNDER the total. Buehler is in awesome current form. Over his past three starts, he's got a 0.41 ERA and 0.45 WHIP. Over that 22 inning stretch, he's recorded 26 K's while issuing only one walk. These starters have a history against each other. Marquez has made three starts at LA since 2018, two of them came against Buehler. Those games had scores of 2-1, 3-1 and 5-2, all staying below the total. The 5-2 game came in the playoffs, one of the head-to-head showdowns with Buehler. In the two reg. season games here, Marquez allowed one run in eight innings, one run in seven innings. Over that 15-inning span, he allowed just four combined hits, striking out 14 while walking two. In that playoff game, you may recall that Buehler took a 1-hitter into the 7th inning. He's seen the UNDER go 2-0-1 in three career starts against the Rockies here, all three games producing seven or fewer runs. Expect another well-pitched affair.
|06-20-19||Reds v. Brewers -141||Top||7-1||Loss||-141||22 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Reds managed an unlikely sweep of the Astros. However, the Brewers should bring them back down to reality this evening. With a matchup of Roark/Nelson, we're able to get the Crew at a far more reasonable price than we normally would. While its obviously very important, there's a lot more to winning than just starting pitching though. The Brewers are 22-13 at home, 121-82 (+25) here the past 2+ seasons. On the other hand, the Reds are 15-21 on the road and are now 74-123 away from Cincy the past 2+ seasons. The Reds hit .222 on the road, the Brewers hit .265 at home. Admittedly, Nelson's numbers aren't too good. He now has a couple of games under his belt though and a Reds lineup which hits poorly on the road figures to be just what the doctor ordered. While the Reds haven't seen Nelson since 2017, when he tossed a pair of gems (and one dud) against them, the Brewers have already had a look at Roark this season. Roark, who was 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in June and who threw a season-high number of pitches last time out, didn't fare well (3 runs, 4 1/3 innings) when he faced the Brewers earlier this season. His team is 0-2 his last two against the Brewers, Roark allowing three home runs through 10 1/3 innings. After getting swept at San Diego, the Brewers are coming in angry. They're 4-1 the past five times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. They're also a dominant 47-27 (+24) the past 2+ seasons, after having dropped three of their previous four. Back at home, Milwaukee rights the ship.
|06-20-19||Indians v. Rangers UNDER 9.5||Top||2-4||Win||100||23 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on Cleveland/Texas UNDER the total. Minor (6-4, 2.63 ERA) is having an excellent season. He's got a 2.32 ERA his past 10 starts. At home, this season, he's got a 2.18 ERA. Bieber was sharp last time out, striking out 12 through 7 2/3 innings. He allowed two runs on just four hits. He's been strong during the day, posting a 3.16 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in five daytime appearnces, four starts. Opposing batters hit only .191 in those games. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has been profitable for both starters. Minor has seen the UNDER go 11-4 overall, 5-2 at home. Bieber has seen the UNDER go 10-3-1 overall and 5-1 on the road. Expect a well-pitched affair.
|06-19-19||Rockies v. Diamondbacks -140||Top||6-4||Loss||-140||15 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Rockies won big yesterday but the Diamondbacks will bounce back this evening. Greinke was absolutely dominant last time out. He only allowed two hits through 7+ shutout innings. In fact, he had a no-hitter into the 6th. He only stopped pitching due to a long rain delay. On the season, he's 8-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. At home, his ERA dips to 2.48. Keep in mind that he had a 2.55 ERA in 17 starts here last season too. The year before, he was 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA here. In other words, he likes his home cooking. Despite having to pitch at Coors, Gray also tends to fare better in his home park. On the road, he's got a 5.06 ERA this season. Last year, he had a 5.34 ERA on the road. These starters opposed each other, at Colorado, last month. While Greinke was actually better than Gray, the Rockies ended up winning 4-3. However, Gray's last two starts at Arizona have been terrible - the Dbax won 8-2 and 11-8 - Gray allowing 13 hits and seven earned runs in just 5 1/3 combined innings. Dbax roll.
|06-18-19||Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 10.5||Top||8-1||Win||100||13 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on Colorado/Arizona UNDER the total. This O/U number climbed overnight providing us with some additional value. I feel that the line will prove to be too high. Kelly is in outstanding current form. He's 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 0.627 WHIP his last three starts. Last time out, he limited the Phillies to three hits through 7 2/3 shutout innings. Overall, Kelly has a 2.35 ERA is six home starts, the UNDER going 4-1-1. Not surprisingly, Senzatela has been better on the road than he has at home. In his last road start, he allowed just one earned run, on only four hits, through six complete innings. Including that results, his last three starts have all fallen below the total. Senzatela has also seen the UNDER go 4-0 his last four against Arizona, allowing four or fewer earned runs in each of those starts, including just 1 and 2 (through 6 and 7 innings) his most recent two starts against. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
|06-17-19||Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5||Top||3-2||Win||100||28 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF/LA UNDER the total. Maeda's last three starts against SF have all stayed below the total. Those games had final scores of 3-2, 4-2 and 5-0, Maeda allowing 0 earned runs in two of them. I'm expecting another low-scoring affair here. Maeda is 2-3 with a poor 5.67 ERA on the road. However, here at home, he's 5-0 with a dominant 1.69 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting just .145 against him here. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 3-0-1 his last four starts here. Going back further finds the UNDER at 13-3-2 his last 18 starts here. Beede, a former first round pick, had a career high seven K's last time out. He'll have the advantage of facing the LA hitters for the first time. His last two road starts have both fallen below the number. Look for the UNDER to improve to 8-2 when the Dodgers were listed as home favorites of -200 or greater.
|06-17-19||Red Sox v. Twins -136||Top||2-0||Loss||-136||10 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I won with the Red Sox in Porcello's last start. Porcello came through for me in that one. However, that was a home game against Texas. Now, he'll take on a Twins team which leads the leauge in home runs and which is a dominant 47-23 on the season, 23-12 here at home. On the season, Porcello is 0-3 with an ugly 6.37 ERA in six road starts. Opposing hitters are batting .315 against him, away from Fenway. On the other hand, Berrios is 5-1 with a stellar 2.53 ERA here at Minnesota. Off yesterday's loss, Sano had this to say of the his Minnesota team: ""We can lose one game if we're going to win five, seven games. This is the best team I've seen in my life, and we don't have any pressure about anything. We're really good." Expect the Twins to bounce back.
|06-16-19||Cubs v. Dodgers -163||Top||2-3||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA. The price on the Dodgers came down overnight. Given the venue and pitching matchup, I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Off a tough loss last night, LA is going to be in angry mood. Ryu has been amazing all season. He's got a 1.36 ERA and 0.802 WHIP through 13 starts overall. At home, he's practically unhittable and he's been unbeatable. Through six home starts, he's 6-0 with a remarkable 1.01 ERA and 0.649 WHIP. He's struck out 45 here while walking a mere two. He averages 7.4 innings per start here, too. On the other hand, Quintana is 2-4 with a 5.83 ERA on the road. While Ryu hasn't walked a batter in either of his last two starts, Quintana walked four (while striking out only three) in his last start alone, a span of just five innings. Even after yesterday's loss, the Dodgers are still a dominant 19-5 when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -200 range. Payback time tonight.
|06-16-19||Padres v. Rockies -147||Top||14-13||Loss||-147||22 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Rockies have been outstanding as home favorites and they're going to be licking their chops at the opportunity to face Margevicius again. They've seen him twice this season, once in April and once in May. Colorado won both games comfortably, winning by a combined score of 18-9. Margevicius gave up 10 earned runs in nine innings. He allowed 15 hits, three of them leaving the yard. On the season Margevicius has an ERA above five. That includes an ugly 8.43 ERA (1.781 WHIP) his last three starts. As Margevicius averages less than five innings per start, note that San Diego relievers have really struggled on the road all season. Lambert, who hails from Southern Cal (San Dimas) will be fired up to face the Padres. Making pitching in the bigs look easy, Lambert comes in full of confidence. The former 2nd round pick has made two starts, both against the Cubs, and he's 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. In 12 innings, he's recorded 12 K's. Opposing batters are hitting .167 against him. Rockies roll.
|06-16-19||Rangers v. Reds OVER 9||Top||3-11||Win||100||22 h 41 m||Show|
I'm playing on Texas/Cincinnati OVER the total. While the Reds have been involved in a lot of 'unders' this month, I expect the bats to come alive Sunday afternoon. Jurado has seen both his road starts finish above the total. He's allowed at least a home run in each of his past three games, posting a mediocre 4.00 ERA and 1.389 WHIP in those games. He's backed by a Texas bullpen which entered the weekend with a 5.09 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road. Gray, 0-4 in this season's daytime starts, has faced the Rangers plenty of times from his days in the AL. Each of his last four starts against them produced a minimum of nine runs. The most recent (2017) had a score of 6-5. Last season, Gray pitched an inning of relief against the Rangers. That didn't go well, as he gave up five hits and two runs. The 'over' has been money in Ranger day games this season. Look for this one to hit double-digits.
|06-15-19||Pirates v. Marlins -131||Top||3-4||Win||100||19 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI. After getting embarrassed 11-0 yesterday, the Marlins are going to be in an angry mood today. With an expected advantage on the mound, I expect them to get some payback. Lopez is in outstanding current form. In his last three starts, Lopez has recorded 19 K's in 18 innings, while allowing just two earned runs. That's a 1.00 ERA. He's got a 0.778 WHIP to go along with that. In six home starts this season. Lopez has a dominant 1.78 ERA and 0.973 WHIP. Agrazal will be making his major league debut. Look for Lopez to outpitch and outlast the rookie, the Marlins moving to 29-19 their last 48 as home favorites of -150 or less.
|06-15-19||Diamondbacks v. Nationals UNDER 9.5||Top||10-3||Loss||-114||17 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on Arizona/Washington UNDER the total. We're working with a much higher O/U line than one would have been for yesterday's Dbax/Nats game. I feel that the big number is generously high and providing us with plenty of value. Strasburg was giving up a few too many home runs early in the season but has only given up two his last eight starts. Last time out, he allowed just one run through seven complete innings. He didnt walk a batter and once again, no home runs allowed. The last time that he faced Arizona, Strasburgh allowed one run through 6 2/3 innings, recording nine K's against just five hits and one walk. The final score was 2-1. Clarke has faced some tough opponents lately as the Dodgers, Rockies and Phillies all average more runs than do the Nationals. His last start was in the rain but he was respectable (2 earned runs in 5 innings) in his start, prior to that. Over the past 2+ seasons, excluding pushes, the UNDER is 71-49 in Arizona day games and 84-57 in Washington day games. More of the same here.
|06-14-19||Brewers v. Giants UNDER 8.5||Top||3-5||Win||100||30 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF/Milwaukee UNDER the total. The Brewers have seen the UNDER go 20-13 on the road this season. I expect those stats to improve this evening. Davies has seen the UNDER go a lucrative 11-2 on the season including a 6-1 UNDER mark on the road. He's got a stellar 2.41 ERA overall and that dips down to 1.88 when he's away from Milwaukee. In seven road games, a span of 43 innings, Davies has only permitted two home runs. While Pomeranz's stats aren't nearly as good, he's coming off a great game. He held the Dodgers to three hits and 0 runs, striking out seven. The final score was 2-1. Pomeranz is backed by a Giant bullpen which has a respectable 3.57 ERA and 1.154 WHIP (81.7% save percentage) here at home. Davies has made one start at SF. That 2017 contest finished with a final score of 2-0. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 14-5 when the Brewers faced a southpaw starter.
|06-13-19||Cardinals v. Mets -140||Top||5-4||Loss||-140||28 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Mets had Wednesday off. The Cards played a Wednesday evening game, at Miami. Jacob de Grom comes off a gem. He had 10 K's, against just one walk, while allowing two runs through six complete innings. He's got a 2.72 ERA his last eight starts. Flaherty got roughed up last time out. In six road starts, he's got an ugly 6.67 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. While opposing batters are hitting only .188 against him at St. Louis, they hit .291 against him on the road. Last time out, Flaherty allowed four earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. He walked three batters and didn't record a single strikeout. The Mets are 3-0 with de Grom on the mound against the Cards the past 2+ seasons. He's made three career home starts against St. Louis. The Mets were a perfect 3-0 winning by scores of 6-2, 7-3 and 5-0, a combined 18-5. More of the same Thursday.
|06-12-19||Rangers v. Red Sox -146||Top||3-4||Win||100||9 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on BOSTON. After dropping the first two games of this series, the Sox are going to be in an angry mood this afternoon. Now 115-60 their last 175 as home favorites of -110 or greater, I expect them to bounce back with an important victory. Porcello wasn't great last time out but he wasn't terrible either. He allowed four runs through six complete innings. He's got a respectable 3.86 ERA and 1.283 WHIP at home and he's going to be happy to see Texas. Porcello allowed just one run, on only three hit, last time he was the Rangers. He had eight K's against one walk in that game, Boston winning 5-1. Over his last five starts against Texas, he's allowed just 11 combined earned runs in 34 combined innings. He went at least six complete innnings in all five starts. A closer look reveals that Porcello's teams won all five of those games. Each win came by multiple runs, a total score of 41-17. While Lynn has pitched decently against Boston, his teams have lost three of his last four against the Sox. Boston bounces back big.
|06-11-19||Reds v. Indians OVER 8||Top||1-2||Loss||-104||11 h 45 m||Show|
I'm playing on Cincinnati/Cleveland OVER the total. The Reds have been on an 'under' streak. In fact, all seven of their June games have fallen below the total. While that streak has helped to contribute to a nice low O/U number, we can expect it to come to an end today. Over his last three starts, Castillo has walked 11 batters in 14 innings. All those free passes will catch up with him; he's got an ugly 1.714 WHIP in those games. Speaking of 'ugly,' Bauer is 2-5 with a 5.82 ERA in seven home starts. Not surprisingly, five of those finished above the number. He served up three home runs, while also issuing three walks, last time out. After a slow start at the plate, the Indians are starting to hit better, they've scored 37 runs their last six games, 14 over their last two. On what should be a beautiful evening at Progressive Field, expect both teams to have success at the plate in this one, leading to the final combined score finishing above the low number.
|06-10-19||Cubs v. Rockies -135||Top||5-6||Win||100||27 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on COLORADO. These same two starters recently opposed each other at Wrigley. Marquez had a rough outing. Darvish was better but not great either. The Cubs won 9-8. With today's rematch being played at Colorado, I expect Marquez and co. to get some payback. Prior to last week, Darvish's teams were 0-3 in his three previous starts vs. Colorado. In four career starts vs. the Rockies, he allowed a combined 19 runs (17 earned) in 18 2/3 innings. His lone start at Coors saw him allow five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. While the Cubs are 13-16 on the road, the Rockies are 18-12 at home. That includes a 10-2 record as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Catching the Cubs off last night's ESPN game, look for Marquez and the Rockies to improve on those stats here.
|06-10-19||Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8.5||Top||4-1||Win||100||25 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on Miami/St. Louis UNDER the total. Back in the starting rotation, Wacha is going to be highly motivated to stay there. He had an uptick in velocity - and a better changeup - last time out, shutting out the Reds for 2+ innings in relief. Wacha, who has a respectable 3.67 ERA on the road, should be happy to face the Marlins. Not only is Miami the worst offense in the league, but Wacha has never allowed more than three earned runs in any start vs. the Marlins. Alcantara faces the Cards for the first time. That should have some extra meaning to him, as he came up through the Cardinal system. You may recall that he came over to Miami in the Ozuna deal. Alcantara, who has a 2.50 ERA his last three starts, has seen the UNDER go 8-4 on the season. In fact, over his last two starts, a span of 13 innings, he's only allowed one earned run. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair.
|06-09-19||White Sox v. Royals -120||Top||5-2||Loss||-120||20 h 57 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC. These teams have splite the first two games of the series. The Royals won 6-4 on Friday. The Sox took yesterday's game by a 2-0 score. I really like the Royals to grab Sunday's rubber game. Sparkman has a stellar 2.31 ERA (1.11 WHIP) in seven home appearances, two starts. Last time out, he left the game with a 2-0 lead over the Red Sox. The bullpen coughed up the lead though. Still, Sparkman held Boston to just three hits through 5 1/3 innings. Lopez has an ugly 6.62 ERA to go along with a 1.67 WHIP. On the road, he's 0-4 with an even worse 8.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Oppsosing hitters are batting .340 against him in his five road starts. The Royals will be seeing him for the second time in a little over a week, too. They pounded out 12 hits against him, scoring five runs, at Chicago, on May 29. The Royals also roughed up Lopez here at KC, back in late March. Expect them to give Sparkman plenty of support, closing out the series with a big win for the home fans.
|06-08-19||Nationals v. Padres UNDER 7.5||Top||4-1||Win||100||30 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on Washington/SD UNDER the total. Though it ended at 5-4, last night's game was low-scoring much of the way. (The score was 1-0 going into the bottom of the 6th.) I expect another well-pitched affair this evening. Scherzer is in outstanding current form. Last time out, he allowed just three hits while recording 15 K's. Though he threw a lot of pitches in that game, he's working on an extra day's rest. He's got a 0.90 ERA his last three starts. Over his past five starts against the Padres, averaging better than seven innings per start, Scherzer has allowed a mere six earned runs, Through that dominant 35 2/3 innings, he had 54 K's, hitting double-digits in all five games. Lauer has been sharp here at PetCo all season. He's got a 2.54 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in seven starts here, the UNDER going 5-2. Like Scherzer, he's in excellent form. Over his last three starts, he's got a 1.47 ERA and 0.709 WHIP. While the Padres have been more competitive this season, they still rank #26 in the league in terms of runs scored. They dont hit for a high average and they strike out a lot. In other words, Scherzer's in for another big night. Expect Lauer to go toe-to-toe with him, the final combined score staying beneath the number.
|06-08-19||Reds v. Phillies -138||Top||1-4||Win||100||24 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I won with the Phillies yesterday and I'm coming back with them this afternoon. While the Phillies are a solid 14-7 (+6.5) in day games, the Reds are a terrible 7-20 (-14). I was extremely impressed with Pivetta in his last start. He held the Dodgers to three hits through six shutout innings, striking out nine without walking a single batter. Roark, on the other hand, allowed two home runs in his last start. The Phillies are very familiar with Roark. The last time that they faced him they banged out 10 hits, while scoring five runs, in 4 2/3 innings. He's 0-4 his last six starts vs. the Phillies. In those six starts, he allowed 21 earned runs in 29 innings. Phillies roll.
|06-06-19||A's v. Angels UNDER 9.5||Top||7-4||Loss||-115||29 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on Oakland/LA UNDER the total. Fiers has been clicking for some time now. He's got a stellar 2.82 ERA his last seven starts. Last time out, he held the Astros to only two runs, on just four hits, through 6 2/3 innings. Any problems that he's had have come during the day. When pitching under the lights, he's got a solid 0.94 WHIP, opposing hitters batting a mere .187. Skaggs has an excellent 2.28 ERA in four home starts. He hasn't allowed a home run here all season. When Fiers saw the Angels earlier this season, he limited them to one hit through six shutout innings. The A's won 4-0. Five of his last six starts vs. the Angels have produced eight or fewer combined runs. Skaggs' lone 2019 start against Oakland had a final score of 2-1. Three of his last four (and 7 of his L9) against the A's have produced seven or fewer combined runs. Expect a well-pitched affair, the final combined score staying beneath the generous number.
|06-05-19||White Sox v. Nationals UNDER 10.5||Top||4-6||Win||100||20 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on Chicago/Washington UNDER the total. Both starters have pretty poor numbers for the season. Thats led to a generously high O/U number. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. A closer look reveals that both starters were actually very sharp last time out. Each will come in confident. Sanchez, who once tossed a no-hitter, allowed just one hit through six dominant shutout innings, at Atlanta, last time out. He recorded seven K's and walked just one batter. Covey must feel like a big weight has been lifted off his shoulders. He'd been on an 0-10 streak before beating the Indians last time out. He held Cleveland to one run through six complete innings. Sanchez's last start vs. the White Sox (2017) had an O/U line of 10.5 but the final score was just 3-2. Both starters off a strong outing, look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.
|06-04-19||Marlins v. Brewers -165||Top||16-0||Loss||-165||24 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Brewers are a commanding 82-40 (+26) the past 2+ seasons, when listed as home favorites of -110 or greater. I expect them to improve on those stats Tuesday. Anderson is 2-0 and has a solid 2.78 ERA in five starts since moving into the rotation. In five home appearances, two starts, he's got a 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. On the other hand, Lopez has a terrible 8.26 ERA (1.62 WHIP) on the road. Opposing batters are hitting .303 against him away from Miami. Anderson has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of seven career starts vs. Miami. Conversely, Lopez got rocked (5 earned runs) in his lone start vs. Milwaukee. When also factoring in that the Brewers have a better bullpen and much better hitting and this line could easily be higher. Brewers roll.
|06-03-19||Phillies v. Padres UNDER 7.5||Top||2-8||Loss||-109||31 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on Philadelphia/SD UNDER the total. Both these starters are in excellent current form and I'm expecting a well-pitched affair. Nola allowed one run through seven complete innings last time out. That gives him a 2.50 ERA his last seven starts. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in all seven of those starts. Note that Nola's last three starts against SD all fell below the total. They had scores of 5-1, 2-1 and 4-3. Last time he faced the Padres, Nola tossed six shutout innings, giving up just four hits. Lauer has also been pitching very well of late. He's got a 1.50 ERA his last three starts. He allowed just one earned runs in each of those three games, while not issuing a walk in any of them. Not surprisingly, all three of those games also stayed below the total. Look for this one to do the same.
|06-03-19||Angels v. Cubs -160||Top||1-8||Win||100||7 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Cubs and Angels play a makeup game from 4/14 on Monday afternoon and the matchup clearly favors Chicago. While the Cubs played an early game at St. Louis yesterday, the Angels started two hours later, way out on the West Coast, at Seattle. Bedrosian will serve as the opener for the Angels but Cahill will be the primary pitcher. Cahill has been terrible of late. Last time out, he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings. That wrapped up a dismal May which saw him post an ugly 8.22 ERA. For the season, he's 2-5 with a 6.92 ERA overall. That includes an 0-3 mark with a brutal 9.82 ERA in three daytime starts. Lester, on the other hand, has a stellar 2.63 ERA (1.00 WHIP) in five daytime starts. Lester's teams are 7-4 his last 11 starts against the Angels, most recently a 6-1 win in 2016. Expect the Cubs to finish on top once again.
|06-02-19||Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 9.5||Top||1-2||Win||100||21 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on Chicago/St. Louis to go UNDER the total. Wainwright recorded 10 K's (0 walks) in his last start, the first time that he's done so in more than five years. He'll be happy that this is an early start. He's got a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the day compared to a 5.53 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at night. Wainwright should also be pleased to be pitching at home. He's got a 6.61 ERA in six road starts but a 3.00 ERA in five home starts. Like Wainwright, Hamels will be happy to be pitching at St. Louis. Over his career at Busch Stadium, Hamels has a stellar 2.20 ERA. His last five starts here have all fallen below the total. Those games had scores of 1-0, 4-1, 4-1, 3-2 and 2-0. In fact, none of Hamels' last 11 starts against St. Louis have produced more than nine combined runs. This one won't either.
|06-02-19||Tigers v. Braves -160||Top||4-7||Win||100||20 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA. This is the final game of a disappointing homestand for the Braves. After this, they get Monday off before playing at Pittsburgh Tuesday. That said, they're going to be highly motivated to win this one. With Teheran on the mound, their chances of doing so are excellent. Teheran made five starts in May. Through 27 2/3 innings, he posted a dominant 0.98 ERA, giving up just 12 hits and three earned runs. Opposing batters hit just .128 against him. Its also worth noting that Teheran has a 2.45 ERA (0.91 WHIP) in his day starts this season. While Boyd has pitched well, he doesn't get much support from his team. The Tigers score the fewest runs in the American League, second fewest in all of baseball. They also hit less HR's than any team except for Miami. Entering the weekend, the Detroit bullpen had a combined ERA of 5.17, a WHIP of 1.449. The combination of a bad offense and a bad bullpen isn't a good one. Braves roll.
|06-01-19||Nationals v. Reds UNDER 10||Top||5-2||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on Washington/Cincinnati UNDER the total. Its true that this is a hitter's park. However, that gets factored into the line. Even with yesterday's game finishing above the total, there have still been more unders than overs here this season. I expect the total to prove too high again on Saturday afternoon. Roark is going to be fired up for this one, as its his first start against his former team. He's been pitching well, too. Last time out, Roark struck out nine Cubs through five shutout innings. Its also worth noting that Roark has been at his best when pitching during the day. In four daytime starts, he's got a 2.14 ERA. On the other side, in seven appearances, Fedde has a 2.18 ERA. In two starts, he's got an outstanding 0.90 ERA. Both starters in fine form, look for the final combined score to stay beneath the generously high number.
|06-01-19||Royals v. Rangers -156||Top||2-6||Win||100||23 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on TEXAS. These same two starters opposed each other a couple of weeks ago, at KC. The Rangers won that one in blowout fashion, a 16-1 thrashing. Playing at home, I expect the same matchup to lead to another victory. Lynn altered his pitch selection in late April and has been solid ever since. He's got a 3.38 ERA his last six starts and a 2.70 ERA his last three starts. He didn't give up a home run in any of those three starts, the first of which was the 16-1 win. During that span of 20 innings, he had an impressive 26 K's against just five walks. Bailey's got a horrible 9.58 ERA and 2.13 WHIP his last three starts. On the season, he's got a 6.16 ERA on the road. The Royals have been terrible on the road while the Rangers have been great at home. Texas rolls.
|05-31-19||Astros v. A's UNDER 8||Top||3-2||Win||100||24 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on Houston/Oakland UNDER the total. Both these starters are in outstanding form. Peacock recently switched to a full-windup. Since doing so, he's got an incredible 0.39 ERA in four games, striking out more than 12 per nine innings. For the season, Peacock has a 1.38 ERA when pitching underneath the lights. Fiers, meanwhile, has a 2.84 ERA over his last six starts and a 1.80 ERA (0.60 WHIP!) his last three. On the season, he's 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in five home starts. The Oakland bullpen has been stingy at home while Houston relievers have been dominant on the road. The Astros have seen the UNDER go 16-9 in 25 road games. That includes a 5-1 UNDER mark when on the road and the line ranged from -125 to +1.25. The UNDER is also 14-6 when the A's played a home game with an O/U line of either 8 or 8.5. Expect a well-pitched affair.
|05-30-19||Brewers v. Pirates OVER 8.5||Top||11-5||Win||100||25 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing on Milwaukee/Pittsburgh OVER the total. I didn't like what I saw from either of these starters last time out. Musgrove gave up 10 hits and six earned runs in just five innings. He's 1-3 with an ugly 6.10 ERA in four home starts. Not surprisingly, three of those scores finished above the total. Musgrove at least figures to get some run support as the Pirates are swinging the bats well. After scoring seven yesterday, they've now scored six or more runs in four of their past five games. Anderson has lasted just four innings in each of his past two starts and has gone five or less innings in three straight. Note that Anderson has also gone 5 1/3 or fewer innings each of his past three starts against Pittsburgh. Despite those short outings, he's given up six home runs over those three games, two in each. With Anderson unlikely to go the distance, it means we should see a fair amount of a Milwaukee bullpen which has a combined 4.91 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the road. The Pirate bullpen has been even worse. Pittsburgh relievers have a combined 5.49 ERA and 1.63 WHIP here at home. Musgrove has made two starts against Milwaukee. Each produced 13 combined runs. The OVER is 15-8-1 here on the season, 7-2-1 when the O/U line was 8 or 8.5. Expect another high-scoring affair.
|05-29-19||Tigers v. Orioles -128||Top||4-2||Loss||-128||23 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on BALTIMORE. These teams have split the first two games of the series. The O's should have a significant edge for this evening's all-southpaw finale. Carpenter, who will be pitching on short rest, is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.643 WHIP through three starts. Means, on the other hand, has a 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. When starting at home, he's 3-1 with a dominant 1.71 ERA and a 0.952 WHIP. While they stumbled in a pick'em role yesterday, the O's have actually been pretty good as home favorites. With an edge on the mound, expect them to finish on top.
|05-28-19||Royals v. White Sox -151||Top||3-4||Win||100||28 h 57 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Gioloti takes the mound for the home team and that should make Chicago fans happy. Why wouldn't it? The Sox are 8-1 when he's got the ball. Over his last six starts, Gioloti has a superb 1.25 ERA. Over that span, he's struck out 41 in 36 innings and opposing hitters are batting only .169 against him. Over his last three starts, Gioloti's ERA dips to 0.86. The road hasn't been particularly kind for Keller. He's 1-3 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.56 WHIP away from KC. Even worse, he's 1-4 with an ugly 5.97 ERA (1.64 WHIP) when pitching underneath the lights. Chicago has the edge in the bullpen department too, particularly when it comes to converting saves. The Sox are 5-1 as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|05-26-19||Braves v. Cardinals -142||Top||4-3||Loss||-142||21 h 14 m||Show|
I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Cardinals rallied to take yesterday's game. They scored four runs in the bottom of the eighth to win 6-3. Gyorko who hit a pinch-hit 3-run HR had this to say: "That's a big win for us. We've been struggling, this has been a tough month. Hopefully, we can look later this month and going into next month and this is a win that got us going." At the least, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. Flaherty is off b2b quality starts, both of them coming on the road, one against these same Braves. Now, he returns home where he's got a stellar 2.48 ERA and 0.931 WHIP through five starts. Teheran has pitched well recently. However, he hasn't fared too well on the road. In seven road starts, he's got a 4.46 ERA. The St. Louis bullpen has been better than the Atlanta bullpen this season and that was the case yesterday. The Cards head for Philadelphia after this. Momentum in their corner, expect them to close out the homestand with an important victory.
|05-25-19||Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 8||Top||0-5||Win||102||20 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on Miami/Washington UNDER the total. Hitters had their way in yesterday's game. This afternoon, I expect the pitching to grab center stage. Alcantara tossed a complete-game 2-hit shutout last time out. He needed only 89 pitches to do it, too. In three daytime starts, he's 2-0 with a dominant 0.41 ERA and 0.68 WHIP. While opposing hitters are batting .323 against him at night, they're hitting only .141 against him during the day. Corbin has also thrived when pitching during the daytime. He's got a 2.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in three daytime starts. Overall, in five home starts, he's got a 2.94 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, opposing batters hitting .192 against him here. Yesterday's game notwithstanding, these teams are not scoring a lot of runs. Washington entered yesterday ranked 20th in terms of runs scored per game. Miami was dead last. The UNDER is 12-1 in Miami's day games on the season. Expect those stats to improve here.