|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-17-18||Kings v. Wolves -8||Top||105-132||Win||100||27 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams have met twice so far this season. Both meetings were at Sacramento. The Kings won both by double-digits. This evening, however, the T-Wolves have homecourt on their side. They've also got the schedule working in their favor. While Minneota had Sunday off, the Kings were busy playing at Dallas. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this will be the Kings' third game in the past four days. The last four times that the Kings played the second of b2b games? They went 0-4 SU/ATS. All four of those games resulted in double-digit losses, 107-97, 133-112, 132-112, 101-86. Expect more of the same here, a highly motivated Minnesota team pulling away for another double-digit win.
|12-14-18||Raptors v. Blazers +3.5||Top||122-128||Win||100||13 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (8* SHOCKER). Off a huge road win over the champs, I believe that the Raptors are going to be ripe for a letdown. Note that the Raptors are 5-9 ATS after scoring 110 or more in two more consecutive games. They'll be facing an angry and talented Portland team, one which hasn't lost a home game by more than four points all season. Not surprisingly, the Blazers are already 1-0 ATS as home underdogs (15-point win over the Bucks) this season; 11-7 ATS in that role the past couple of years. The Blazers haven't forgotten that the Raptors came in here and shut them down early last season, before blowing them out at Toronto. Its finally payback time!
|12-12-18||Raptors v. Warriors -6.5||Top||113-93||Loss||-108||13 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Raptors beat a short-handed (no Curry) Warriors team, at Toronto, in OT. The game had been billed as a Finals Preview and the some of the fans reacted as if they'd won a finals game. Now healthier, playing at home and with the schedule in their favor, expect the revenge-minded champions to get some payback. Leonard was the hero for the Raptors in the first game. However, he didnt play last night. If he does go tonight, he may be less than 100%. Either way, the Warriors are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) the past eight times that they attempted to avenge a loss of three or fewer points and we can expect them to improve on those stats.
|12-10-18||Kings v. Bulls +2.5||Top||108-89||Loss||-110||28 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BEST BET). The Bulls got embarrassed by Boston on Saturday and they're going to be looking to bounce back with a much better effort. I believe that they're catching the Kings at the right time. Sacramento lost by double-digits at Indiana Saturday and will now be playing its third road game in the past four days. The Bulls have been dealing with injuries all year but they're slowly getting heathier. Prior to the Boston debacle, the Bulls' previous two home games resulted in an outright win against OKC and a 1-point loss against San Antonio. Expect their best effort to lead to at least another cover here.
|12-08-18||Nuggets v. Hawks +7.5||Top||98-106||Win||100||26 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Nuggets absolutely destroyed the Hawks, at Denver, a few weeks ago, a 45-point beatdown. At the time, the Hawks were in the middle of a road trip and had just lost tight games against the Lebron Lakers and the defending champion Warriors. Off those b2b close losses and weary from being thousands of miles from home, they were vulnerable. This time, its the Hawks which are at home. This time, its the Nuggets who have been on the road for some time. The Nuggets played last night at Charlotte and are now playing their third game in four days, the final leg of a 5-game road trip. Dating back to the 11/15 game against the Hawks, the Nuggets have not played in the same arena in consecutive games. Thats a lot of travel; after this they finally get a 4-game home stretch. The Hawks haven't forgotten the 11/15 loss. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to improve to 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 20 or more points.
|12-07-18||Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4.5||Top||107-103||Loss||-110||25 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played on the Grizzlies in their last game, a double-digit win over the Clippers on Wednesday. However, that was at Memphis, where they've been playing well all year. They're now 8-3 at home. The road has been a different story, as they've been mediocre away from Memphis, most recently losing by eight. The home/road difference is even more pronounced for the Pelicans. They're only 3-10 on the road but an impressive 10-3 here at New Orleans. Last time out, they won by 26. While the Pelicans have tomorrow off, the Grizzlies will host Lebron and the Lakers tomorrow. It all adds up to another big home win for the Pelicans.
|12-05-18||Thunder v. Nets +7.5||Top||114-112||Win||100||28 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Thunder are off b2b2b blowout wins and are playing well. I expect the Nets to bring them back down to earth though. OKC's recent winning streak has created plenty of value at the betting window. Keep in mind that the Thunder are laying a bigger number here than they were at venues like Phoenix and Cleveland. Yet, the Nets have a better record than either the Suns or Cavs. Grab the generous points and expect the Nets to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover.
|12-03-18||Rockets v. Wolves +2||Top||91-103||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* BEST BET). True, the Rockets are off b2b blowout wins. However, lets not forget that they'd lost four in a row, before that. Also, its worth noting that they're only 13-21 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b double-digit victories. I expect homecourt to be the difference in this one. The T-Wolves are a profitable 14-6-1 ATS (16-5 SU) the last 21 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Look for them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats tonight.
|12-02-18||Jazz v. Heat +4||Top||100-102||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While this is only their third consecutive road game, I believe that the Jazz will be getting a little road-weary. Thats because this marks the 13th consecutive time that they'll be playing at a different venue than they played their previous game at. Ten of those 13 (10 of L12) have come on the road. (The two home games during that stretch were immediately followed by a road game.) Either way, I expect them to have their hands full. Note that Utah is 0-4 ATS after having won three of its previous four. The Heat come in confident, off their minor upset of the Pelicans. They're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were off an upset win as a home underodg. The Heat have defeated the Jazz three straight times, two of those wins coming by a single point. Expect them to take this down to the wire with a great shot at another upset.
|12-01-18||Nets v. Wizards -5||Top||88-102||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). Both teams played and lost yesterday. However, while the Wizards were getting blown out at Philly, the Nets double-OT loss was arguably far more painful and it should take a far bigger toll on them today. The Wizards are going to be in an angry mood. Not just from yesterday but also because the Nets upset them here a couple of weeks ago. Schedule in their favor, expect some serious payback today.
|11-29-18||Clippers v. Kings +3||Top||133-121||Loss||-110||25 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO (10* BEST BET). The Kings are off b2b losses, for the fourth time this season. However, they've been great in that situation (3-0 SU/ATS) and they've got both the venue and the schedule in their favor. While the Kings, 6-2-1 ATS their last nine when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, are well-rested, the Clippers are off a win over Phoenix last night. Though they did pull away for a convincing victory, the score was tied at half. So, stars Harris and Gallinari were still forced to see relatively heavy (33 + 35) minutes. The Kings began the season with b2b defeats. They responded with a double-digit win (as a double-digit dog) over the Thunder. At the beginning of this month, the Kings again lost b2b games. They answered with a double-digit win over the T-Wolves, again when listed as an underdog. In the middle of this month, they lost b2b games for a third time. Once again, they faced OKC. Once again, they responded with an outright win. Expect their best effort to lead to at least another cover tonight.
|11-26-18||Magic v. Warriors -8||Top||110-116||Loss||-110||29 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). While they're still dealing with some injuries, here's a great spot for the champs to "get healthy." While the Warriors had yesterday off, the Magic were busy playing Lebron and the Lakers, at LA. Playing their third in four days, the first of which was in the high altitude of Denver, expect fatigue to be a factor for the Magic, the Magic happy to lay down the hammer for a convincing win and cover.
|11-25-18||Clippers v. Blazers -4||Top||104-100||Loss||-110||12 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* PERS FAV). Off b2b losses, the Blazers are going to be a determined team this evening. With an 11-point win against them a few weeks ago, the Blazers have now beaten the Clippers four straight times. All four victories came by a minimum of eight points. The Blazers are 7-3 ATS on the season, when laying points. The Clippers, on the other hand, are now 3-6 ATS when getting points. They're also just 2-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Blazers roll.
|11-24-18||Pelicans v. Wizards +2||Top||114-124||Win||100||26 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). Both teams played Friday. So, each will be playing the second of b2b games. However, New Orleans also played Wednesday, while Washington did not. That means that the Pelicans are playing their third game in four days, while the same cannot be said of the Wizards. Knowing that they'll face these same Pelicans, at New Orleans, on Wednesday, expect the Wizards to "hold serve" by protecting their home court.
|11-21-18||Pelicans v. 76ers -3.5||Top||120-121||Loss||-110||24 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PERS FAV). The home team won both meetings last season. The Pelicans won by seven at New Orleans. Howver, the 76ers hammered them by a 100-82 margin in the game here at Philadelphia. Homecourt has been huge from both these teams again so far this season. The 76ers are a poor 3-7 on the road but a perfect 9-0 here at Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are 8-1 at New Orleans but just 2-6 at home. With an O/U line in the high 230s, this is expected to be a high-scoring game. That suits the 76ers just fine. They're 29-13 ATS the past 42 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During that same span, they're also 52-27-1 ATS when facing an opponent which averages 106 or more points. Expect the tempo and venue to lead to another win and cover for the new look 76ers.
|11-19-18||Clippers v. Hawks +7||Top||127-119||Loss||-110||28 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). While they haven't been getting any "W's" to show for it, the Hawks are fighting very hard. They've covered the spread in three of their last four. The Hawks played the Clippers tough last time they met, LA winning by a single point. I expect them to again give the Clippers all they can handle. While both teams had Sunday off, the Hawks also have tomorrow (Tuesday) off. The Clippers, on the other hand, have a rematch against Washington tomorrow. The Clippers are 3-4 on the road overall and that includes a 1-4 SU/ATS mark when playing on the road when the O/U was 220 or greater. Grab the points.
|11-16-18||Jazz v. 76ers -2.5||Top||107-113||Win||100||28 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Homecourt has been huge for the 76ers. Indeed, they're an ugly 2-7 on the road but a perfect 7-0 here at Philadelphia. I fully expect them to keep that perfect record in tact for awhile yet. (After this, their next home games are against Phoenix, New Orleans, Cleveland and NY - all very winnable games.) The first game with Jimmy Butler in the lineup didn't go so well, as the 76ers blew a 16-point lead and lost at Orlando. His acquisition makes this a very dangerous team, however, with three elite players. They're going to be highly motivated to get the first win of the "new era." Sure, the Jazz are going to also be motivated to bounce back off their embarrassing 50-pt loss. However, that loss revealed some issues and I don't think the Jazz match up well against the new look 76ers. Note that Philly swept the season series last year, including a 107-86 blowout win in the game here. They were laying -6 for that one. Despite the perfect home record and arguably a superior team, we're getting them at a lower line here. I feel thats offering excellent value and am expecting another big win.
|11-14-18||Grizzlies v. Bucks -9.5||Top||116-113||Loss||-110||24 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* PERS FAV). The Grizzlies have been tough at home. However, they only score 96.3 ppg on the road and thats led to a 2-4 record. Its also going to make it extremely difficult to keep up with a Milwaukee team which averages 124.3 ppg here at home. Allowing only 105.2 ppg here, the Bucks have a perfect 6-0 home record, covering the number in five of those. In fact, even the lone non-cover here was an 11-point win when they were favored by -11.5. In other words, all six games here have been double-digit victories. Expect another one tonight.
|11-12-18||Magic v. Wizards -9||Top||109-117||Loss||-105||9 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). Off a win at Miami and now with some positive momentum, the Wizards badly need to string together victories. This figures to be the perfect opponent and situation to get one. While the Wizards had yesterday off, the Magic were busy beating up on the Knicks. Sure, that wasn't the most taxing win. However, its still worth mentioning that the Magic are an ugly 11-25-1 ATS (10-27 SU) the past couple of seasons, when off an upset win. The Magic just beat the Wizards, at Orlando, a few nights ago. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect the revenge-minded Wizards to get some payback.
|11-10-18||Nets v. Warriors -8||Top||100-116||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* PERS FAV). Many aren't going to be willing to back the champs tonight. Not without Curry. Not without Green. As a result, we're getting the champs at a far lower line than we normally would; GS was laying -15 when hosting the Nets last season. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. With the venue and schedule in their favor, Durant, Thompson and co. still have more than enough to deliver a double-digit win tonight. After getting hammered by the Bucks on Thursday, the well-coached Warriors are going to be all business tonight. While the Warriors had last night off, the Nets are off a hard-fought (112-110) win in the high altitude of Denver. They're already 0-2 SU/ATS this season, when playing the second of b2b games. They lost those games by 20 and 19 points. More of the same here.
|11-09-18||Celtics v. Jazz -3||Top||115-123||Win||100||14 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on UTAH (10* MAIN EVENT). Last night's game at Phoenix worked out about as well as I could have possibly hoped. Not only did I cover with the Suns but the Celtics were forced to fight back and win the game in overtime. The starters had to log some pretty heavy minutes, Irving going over the 43-minute mark. While the Celtics were having to give everything they had, the Jazz had last night off. The Celtics are already 0-1 ATS when playing the second of b2b games and they're now 2-5 ATS on the road. The Jazz snapped their losing streak last time out, winning by 15 points. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to carry the positive momentum from that game into tonight's contest, en route to a win and cover.
|11-08-18||Celtics v. Suns +10||Top||116-109||Win||100||14 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHOENIX (10* BEST BET). With the Celtics off b2b losses, many will be expecting them to bounce back with an easy win tonight. However, those b2b losses continue a pattern and should be of concern to anyone looking to lay the big number tonight. Through six road games, the Celtics are 3-3. A closer look shows that only one of those six games resulted in a win of greater than six points. With a "bigger game" (Utah) on deck tomorrow, I feel that the Celtics are going to have trouble covering the big number here. The Suns covered both meetings with Boston last season, losing by five and eight points. In fact, they covered both meetings the previous season, too. Including those results, Phoenix is 14-8 ATS is last 22 against teams from the Atlantic while Boston is 8-12 ATS its last 20 against Pacific teams. Unlike their guests, the Suns don't play tomorrow. Their full focus is on the task at hand. Though Booker isn't quite 100% yet, he's got a handful of games under his belt now and is still playing at a high level. Ayton, the #1 pick, is off to a strong start and gives them a new dynamic. Expect their best effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover tonight.
|11-07-18||Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4||Top||87-89||Win||100||13 h 25 m||Show|
I'm playing on MEMPHIS (10* BEST BET). The Nuggets are almost always tough at home. However, they're still just 36-50 on the road the past couple of seasons and a closer look at their schedule reveals that they've faced some relatively easy opponents through this season's first four games. Their last two on the road were at Cleveland and Chicago. (Those teams are a combined 4-17 and they're both only won one game on their own home floor.) Tonight, the Nuggets will face a Grizzly team which is a perfect 3-0 on its home floor, outscoring visiting teams by a commanding average of 118.3 to 102.7. The Grizzlies covered both home games against the Nuggets last season, most recently winning outright as a 7-point underdog. Expect them to continue their strong homecourt play this evening.
|11-04-18||Knicks v. Wizards -6.5||Top||95-108||Win||100||10 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The season may be still early but these are desperate times for the Wizards. They began the season by dropping a pair of home games, both very close losses. Next, they went 1-4 on a tough West Coast road trip. They've since returned home and got blown out by OKC. Worse, after this, they go back on the road for another three games. This team is better than its shown and the Porzingis-less Knicks are the perfect opponent to get healthy against. Wizards bounce back big.
|11-02-18||Thunder v. Wizards -2||Top||134-111||Loss||-110||13 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Wizards badly need a win. Tonight, they've got both the venue and the schedule working in their favor. While Washington had last night off, OKC is off a relatively hard-fought win at Charlotte. Though I played on the Thunder in their recent win against the Clippers, they're now playing their third game in the past four days. Washington coach Scott Brooks, former coach of the Thunder, has made sure his current team takes care of business when hosting his former team. The Wizards beat the Thunder by six here last season after blowing them out by 22 here the previous season. Howard will be on a minutes restriction in returning tonight but anything extra he can provide will be a bonus. Expect the Wizards to bounce back, moving to 8-2 the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses.
|11-01-18||Clippers v. 76ers -4.5||Top||113-122||Win||100||23 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The 76'ers have gotten off to a poor start at the betting window. Those sup-par ATS results are working in our favor tonight, keeping the line lower than it easily could have been. The 76'ers have faced nothing but Eastern Conf. opposition so far. Tonight, they'll get to add to a 39-21 ATS mark the past two seasons, against teams from the West. The 76ers got blown out at Toronto last time out. They're a perfect 4-0 SU on this floor though and they're also 27-16-1 ATS the last 44 times that they were off a double-digit loss. More? With an O/U line in the high 220s, note that the 76'ers are a lucrative 25-11 ATS the past 36 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|10-30-18||Clippers v. Thunder -2.5||Top||110-128||Win||100||14 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on OKC (10* PERS FAV). I won with the Clippers when these teams faced each other, at LA, on 10/19. Not only were the Thunder playing on the road, they were without Westbrook. The Thunder are back home now though and Westbrook now has a few games under his belt. I expect their best effort tonight and feel that the line is very reasonable. The Thunder have dominated the Clippers here in recent seasons, including 8-point and 9-point wins last season. Playing with 'recent revenge,' expect more of the same tonight.
|10-29-18||Lakers v. Wolves||Top||120-124||Win||100||13 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* MAIN EVENT). Neither team has gotten off to the start it was hoping for. Both will be hungry for a win tonight. Knowing that they'll face Utah next, followed by a difficult 5-game road trip, which begins at Golden State and Portland and which includes these same Lakers, I expect the T-Wolves sense or urgency to be a little greater. Playing on their home floor, the Wolves got blown out last time. However, they're still 2-1 here, now 53-34 the past 2+ seasons. The Lakers, on the other hand, have 1-2 on the road, the lone win coming at Phoenix. The Wolves had plenty of success against the Lakers prior to Lebron's arrival. Expect them to continue that success for at least one more night.
|10-28-18||Wizards +3.5 v. Clippers||Top||104-136||Loss||-105||15 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). The Wizards started out the trip with a win at Portland, proving that they're capable of winning at a more difficult venue than this one. They got blown out at Golden State, which wasn't a surprise. Perhaps still feeling the effects of that loss, they also lost at Sacramento. Now, off b2b losses and just 1-4 to start the season, they're going to be extremely hungry tonight. The Wizards played the Clippers tough last season; they won by nine at Washington and lost by just one here at LA. With an O/U line currently at 228 or 229, the pace figures to favor the Wizards. The Clippers are 9-14 ATS (11-12 SU) the last 23 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During the same stretch, the Wizards were 12-7 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. I'll grab the points but am expecting an upset.
|10-26-18||Bulls v. Hornets -9.5||Top||106-135||Win||100||27 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* GAME OF MONTH). These teams just faced each other, at Chicago, on Wednesday. Playing on their home floor, the Bulls were able to eke out a 2-point win. All is not currently well in Chicago, however, as the team is dealing with some key injuries. Markkenen, Dunn and Valentine are all very important for this team and all remain out. The Bulls were able to overcome those injuries at home. On the road, against a determined revenge-minded opponent, is going to prove a different story.Now, Portis is also out. That leaves them extremely thin in the frontcourt. Parker will be expected to do a lot but he's not 100% healthy himeself and is hardly up to the task. Hutchinson not likely to cut it either. At 2-3, Charlotte coach James Borrego knows his team can ill afford another loss here. Off Wednesday's loss, Borrego commented: "My tendency right now is to go make changes all over the place. But we've got to stay disciplined, we've got to stay poised." The Hornets have had real trouble at Chicago. They beat the Bulls by 15 the last meeting here though. Expect Borrego's team to "stay poised" en route to another double-digit blowout win.
|10-24-18||Mavs v. Hawks +2||Top||104-111||Win||100||27 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Hawks opened the season with three straight road games. They lost the first two, badly. However, they closed the trip with a blowout win at Cleveland, which gives them some positive momentum coming into their home opener. The Hawks have had the past two days off and they also get the next two days off. The Mavs lost their lone road game, at Phoenix, by 21 points. They're without Nowitzki and they'll also be without Harrison Barnes, a significant blow. Additionally, Devin Harris is expected to remain out. Meanwhile, the Hawks are expecting to have Dedmon in the lineup for the first time this season. Even if his minutes are limited, as they'll likely be, he adds depth in the paint to complent Len. The Hawks have owned the Mavs over the past five years including another sweep last season. More of the same Wednesday.
|10-22-18||Suns v. Warriors -12.5||Top||103-123||Win||100||13 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on GS (10* VIOLATOR). Off last night's loss, the champs are going to be in an angry mood tonight. The young Suns are the perfect opponent to take their anger out on. The Warriors have won all eight meetings against the Suns the past couple of seasons. A look at last season's four games, all played in 2018, shows that all four resulted in double-digit victories. The Warriors won the two games at Oakland by an average of 28 points. (Including those victories, the Warriors are 47-3 SU the last 50 times that they were home favorites of -12.5 or more.) Note that they were laying -15 and -16 for those games and that we're getting a better line to work with, due to the b2b spot. With the champs looking to flex their muscles with a statement bounceback win, I'm expecting this one to be one-sided the entire way.
|10-20-18||Raptors v. Wizards +1||Top||117-113||Loss||-103||13 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). Off a 1-point loss in their opener, knowing that they embark on a tough 5-game road trip out West immediately following this game and facing the team which eliminated them from last season's playoffs, the Wizards are going to be extremely motivated to win this one. In addition to having the venue in their favor, they've got the schedule working for them. While the Wizards had yesterday off, the Raptors are off a hard-fought win over the Celtics last night and are now playing their third game in four days. Even with the loss in the opener, the Wizards are 61-31 on this floor the past couple of seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening.
|10-17-18||Grizzlies v. Pacers -6.5||Top||83-111||Win||100||32 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on INDIANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pacers were a combined 58-29 here the past two seasons, 29-15 last year. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, were a combined 25-60 on the road, a dismal 6-35 last year. Given that the Pacers are projected to win about 47.5 games this season, compared to 34.5 for Memphis, this line could easily be higher. While both games were close, the Pacers swept the Grizzlies last season. Expect them to finish on top once again, covering the relatively small number along the way.
|06-03-18||Cavs v. Warriors -11.5||Top||103-122||Win||100||49 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF MONTH). Many will look at how close the Cavs came in Game 1 and be quick to grab the points. However, I'm not one of them. Instead, I expect the Warriors to deliver a blowout. The Cavs had their chance in Game 1. Fair or not, the over-turned offensive foul call was a killer. Likewise, JR Smith running the ball out, killed their chances of a game winning shot. To come so close to scoring a huge upset, only to lose in that fashion, is going to be very hard to bounce back from. While I did win with them in Game 7 at Boston, note that the Cavs have now won just one of their past five road games. Meanwhile, the Warriors have had their wake-up call. When firing on all cylinders and playing on this floor, they're nearly unstoppable. Expect a decisive victory. *June GOM
|05-27-18||Cavs +3 v. Celtics||Top||87-79||Win||100||11 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* MAIN EVENT). Obviously, homecourt has been extremely significant in this series. That said, with everything on the line, I'm going with the game's best player. We're even getting a few points to boot. Note that the Cavs are 15-10-1 ATS in the underdog role. Expect Lebron to do his thing, getting enough help from the supporting cast to punch his ticket to another finals.
|05-25-18||Celtics v. Cavs -6.5||Top||99-109||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* MAIN EVENT). I'm not writing Lebron and co. off yet. Homecourt has been huge in this series and the Cavs have now won their last three games here by 74 combined points. The Cavs are 3-2 ATS (4-1 SU) when trailing in a series. Going back further finds them at 23-15 AT their last 38 in that situation. Expect this series to go the distance, the Cavs covering on their home floor, once again.
|05-23-18||Cavs +1.5 v. Celtics||Top||83-96||Loss||-115||13 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BEST BET). Homecourt has obviously been very significant in this series, thus far. However, I believe that changes tonight. The Cavs have major momentum and confidence on their side and I don't see them losing another game in this series. With Lebron doing his thing, look for Cleveland, 15-9-1 ATS its last 25 as an underdog, to grab control of the series.
|05-20-18||Rockets +8 v. Warriors||Top||85-126||Loss||-105||11 h 48 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). I attended the season opener between these two teams, here at Oracle. You may recall that game, the crowd thought that the Warriors hit the game-winner at the buzzer but it was waved off, upon further review. Like that first game of the season, I also see tonight's pivotal game "coming down to the wire." Expect the Rockets to give the champs all they can handle, taking the game down to the wire and improving to 12-6 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater.
|05-19-18||Celtics v. Cavs -6||Top||86-116||Win||100||49 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Celtics certainly looked like the better team through the first two games. However, I'm not counting out the Cavs just yet. Not by a long-shot. The Cavs are still 34-13 at home. They've beaten the Celtics five of the last six meetings on this floor and they won their last game here (against Toronto) by 35 points. Energized by the home crowd, Lebron and co. bounce back, picking up the cover along the way.
|05-16-18||Warriors v. Rockets -1||Top||105-127||Win||100||36 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON. A loss in Game 1 means that the Rockets have squandered the home-court advantage that they worked so hard for. All is not necessarily lost though, provided they bounce back with their best effort on Wednesday. Backs to the wall, I expect them to do exactly that. Even with the Game 1 loss, the Rockets are 44-10 the last 54 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. They're also 19-6 (SU) the past 25 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss, 11-3 their last 14 when off an 'upset' loss. While the champs have now won three straight, they're just 8-20-2 ATS the past 30 times that they were off three or more consecutive victories. Expect the Rockets to dig deep and to even up the series.
|05-08-18||Pelicans v. Warriors -11.5||Top||104-113||Loss||-103||16 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Yesterday, I suggested that the Cavs "smelled the blood in the water." I feel the same way here. Up 3-1 and off a blowout win at New Orleans, the champs have found their groove. They're now 20-13 ATS (25-8 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when leading in a playoff series. The Warriors know the importance of closing out the series and not giving the pesky Pelicans any sort of life. Expect them to pull away for a convincing victory.
|05-07-18||Raptors v. Cavs -5.5||Top||93-128||Win||100||36 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* VIOLATOR). Already down 0-2 in the series and down by double-digits in Game 3, it would have been easy for the Raptors to quit. They didn't do that. Rather, they showed their resilience and battled all the way back. Unfortunately, for Raptor fans, it still wasn't enough. Lebron hit another game-winner at the buzzer. The Raptors gave it everything they had in that Game 3 comeback. To have done so, only to have their hearts-broken in that manner, is going to be extremely tough to bounce back from. When they find themselves down double-digits in this one, which I expect to happen, fighting back is going to prove far more difficult. The Cavs smell the blood in the water and know they don't want to give the Raptors any life. Look for them to close things out, covering the small number along the way.
|04-29-18||Pacers v. Cavs -5||Top||101-105||Loss||-110||5 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). While they've cost me a couple of times, I still believe that the Cavs are the superior team in this matchup. With everything on the line, Lebron comes through. This time, covering the spread along the way.
|04-28-18||Pelicans v. Warriors -7.5||Top||101-123||Win||100||54 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Pelicans were certainly impressive in sweeping Portland. However, facing the defending champs on the road is a whole different matter. As of this writing, Curry remains doubtful for this game. While its possible that Curry could return, the Warriors current trio of Durant, Green and Thompson, along with their supporting cast, is more than enough to take care of business at Oracle. Note that the Warriors are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the past six times that they were a host in this series. While the Pelicans are 6-6 SU (4-8 ATS) their last 12 when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, the Warriors are a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they played with three or more day's rest. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way.
|04-27-18||Cavs +1.5 v. Pacers||Top||87-121||Loss||-110||30 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BEST BET). While I lost with the Cavs on Wednesday, I'm coming right back with them again here. Lebron's 3-pointer just before the buzzer was an absolute killer for the Pacers. They'd fought so hard, had rallied from a deficit, had shut the Cavs down only to get beaten in that manner. I expect it have a negative carry-over effect on the Pacers. The Cavs are 17-3 SU the last 20 times that they were leading in a playoff series. Now that they're leading for the first time in this series, I expect them to finish things off.
|04-26-18||Celtics v. Bucks -4||Top||86-97||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE (10* MAIN EVENT). Homecourt has certainly proven significant in this series. I expect that to be the case again this evening. While they failed to cover the last game here, the Bucks have won both games on this floor. They won those two games by an average of 13 points. Note that, as of this writing, this line is a little lower than the other lines were for the Bucks here. I feel thats providing us with plenty of value. Expect the Bucks to extend the series, covering the relatively small number along the way.
|04-25-18||Pacers v. Cavs -6.5||Top||95-98||Loss||-105||56 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). Up 2-1 in the series, the Pacers had a real chance to also take Game 4. It didn't happen. Instead, Lebron, Korver and co. prevailed. Thats going to leave the Pacers thinking about "what might have been" while also serving as a "wake-up call" for the Cavs. Having fought so hard to regain homecourt advantage, dont expect the Cavs to just squander it. Rather, expect them to deliver their most lopsided victory of the playoffs, to date.
|04-23-18||Rockets v. Wolves +6||Top||119-100||Loss||-110||31 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I've won with both the 'under' (Game 1) and the 'over' (Game3) in this series. In Game 2, I backed the Rockets. For Game 4, however, I feel that the value lies with the T-Wolves. Minnesota nearly scored an upset in Game 1, showing it could compete with the top seed. Off that tough Game 1 loss, I wasn't surprised to see the T-Wolves struggle in Game 2. However, they responded with a great effort in Game 3. Now, they really have a series. Butler is a bit banged-up but he's as tough as they come. He still managed 28 points to go along with seven boards, five assists and a steal. Needless to say, he makes this team a lot better. Certainly better than your typical #8 seed. Off their Game 3 win, the Wolves now really believe that they can win. They're 31-11 at home, identical to the Rockets 31-11 record on the road. With the Rockets just 2-8 ATS their last 10, I'm grabbing all those generous points.
|04-21-18||76ers v. Heat +3.5||Top||106-102||Loss||-105||7 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). After losing Game 1, the Heat responded with a big win in Game 2. After dropping Game 3, I expect them to again bounce back in Game 4. Including that Game 2 victory, note that the Heat are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times that they found themselves trailing in a playoff series. Needless to say, the 76'ers have come along way. They've had a great season and are playing well. That said, as I noted when backing Miami in Game 2, this is 'new territory' for the 76'ers. They're not used to being in the playoffs and they're not used to leading in a playoff series. Look for a highly determined effort by the Heat, as they make the necessary adjustments, bouncing back and improving to 10-5 ATS their last 15 off a double-digit loss.
|04-19-18||Warriors v. Spurs +4||Top||110-97||Loss||-115||13 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO (10* MAIN EVENT). First off, condolences to the entire Popovich family on yesterday's passing of Erin Popovich. I won with the Warriors in Game 1. I'm not surprised that they're up 2-0. With or without their coach on the sidelines, I expect the Spurs to respond tonight. Eventually, the absence of Curry figures to catch up with the champs, if only for the game. I expect tonight to be that night. The Spurs have won 11 in a row here; their 33-8 home record ranked behind only Houston and Toronto. They're 4-1 ATS their last five, when off three or more consec. losses. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here.
|04-19-18||Blazers +4 v. Pelicans||Top||102-119||Loss||-115||5 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND. As you know, the Pelicans won both games at Portland. That makes this a must win game for the Blazers. I expect them to respond with their best effort. The Pelicans were no better at home than they were on the road this season and they allow more points here (111.9 ppg) than they do on the road. Even after dropping the first two games, the Blazers remain a healthy 54-30-1 ATS against teams which allow 106 or more ppg. Both regular season meetings here were close, each decided by six or fewer points. The Blazers won outright their last visit here. Expect them to take this one down to the wire with an excellent shot at an upset.
|04-18-18||Wolves v. Rockets -10||Top||82-102||Win||100||12 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* MAIN EVENT). Some will look at Game 1 and see how close the T-Wolves came to scoring an upset. They'll use that as reason to back them in Game 2. However, its been my experience that big road underdogs which let an opportunity slip away in Game 1, typically don't fare too well in Game 2. Rather, the home favorite has received its 'wake-up call' and brings a better effort in the second game. Thats what I expect to happen on Wednesday. The T-Wolves get outscored on the road where they are now just 17-25 on the season. The Rockets, on the other hand, are 35-7 here at Houston, outscoring teams by an average score of 114.1 to 104.9. Fully 'woken up,' expect an even larger margin of victory here.
|04-16-18||Heat +7.5 v. 76ers||Top||113-103||Win||100||35 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Heat were leading at halftime of Game 1 but wilted in the second half. Down a game, I fully expect them to battle for the entire four quarters on Monday. Keep in mind that this is new territory for the 76ers. As well as they've been playing, leading in a playoff series is a new experience for them. Also, note that Miami is a perfect 3-0 ATS its last three, when trailing in a playoff series. The Heat are also 29-17 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a double-digit loss. Throw in a 4-0-1 ATS record the past five times that they allowed 130 or more points and I expect them to bounce back a huge effort, en route to AT LEAST a cover in Game 2.
|04-14-18||Pelicans v. Blazers -4.5||Top||97-95||Loss||-108||5 h 26 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* MAIN EVENT). The Blazers got back on track just when it mattered, earning a key win over the Jazz in the final game of the regular season. That got them this home game vs. the Pelicans and I expect them to make the most of it. Much stronger at home, the Blazers are also 10-4 SU/ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. Expect the combination of homecourt and an advantage in the backcourt to lead to those numbers improving Saturday night.
|04-11-18||Jazz v. Blazers -3||Top||93-102||Win||100||14 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Jazz enter as the hotter team, I expect homecourt to ultimately make the difference tonight. While the Jazz are 20-20 on the road, the Blazers are 27-13 at home. Sure, the Blazers have lost four in a row. All those came on the road though. Back home, where they've gone 4-1 SU/ATS their last five against the Jazz, expect them to bounce back with their best effort.
|04-10-18||76ers v. Hawks +10||Top||121-113||Win||100||12 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). The Hawks are still playing hard. They beat Washington and Boston in their last two games. In addition to this being their home finale, its their final game of the year overall. They'll be anxious to give the fans a good effort. The 76ers, on the other hand, have a home game against Milwaukee on deck tomorrow, followed by the playoffs. They've come back to earth a little of late, as they've failed to cover in each of their last two games. Expect the Hawks to be the hungrier team and for that to lead to AT LEAST another ATS victory.
|04-09-18||Pelicans v. Clippers +7.5||Top||113-100||Loss||-113||16 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* MAIN EVENT). As you're likely aware, the Pelicans need this game for playoff positioning while the Clippers have been eliminated from postseason contention. Obviously, thats why the Pelicans are favored by so many points, despite playing in the road. Many are going to be willing to lay the big number, too. They'll think that the Clippers are going to roll over. However, I don't expect that to be the case. Doc Rivers isn't that kind of coach. He knows that this game has playoff implications and he isn't going to allow his players to go through the motions. Rivers had this to say: "I think I have to play the guys against New Orleans, honestly. I think we really have to go after that game. I just believe in protecting the league. That's what we should do, and I hope we do that." Expect the Clippers to "come to play," bouncing back with their best effort and improving to 6-2 ATS the past eight times that they allowed 130 or more points in their previous game.
|04-08-18||Pistons v. Grizzlies +5.5||Top||117-130||Win||100||22 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on MEMPHIS (10* MOTIVATIONAL MISMATCH). Playing their final home game of the season, I expect this game to mean more to the Grizzlies than it does to the Pistons. Detroit has actually played well recently. However, its a case of too little, too late. With their home finale on deck tomorrow, it's going to be hard for them to get up for a meaningless game against Memphis. The Grizzlies already played the Pistons tough at Detroit, losing by just two. Expect them to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST a cover while providing the home fans with a small measure of hope for next season.
|04-07-18||Pelicans v. Warriors -6||Top||126-120||Loss||-125||15 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pelicans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a 20-point loss, at Indiana, on Thursday, the champs are going to be in an angry mood. This is their regular season home finale, so they'll have some added motivation to close things out with a big win. While the Warriors had yesterday off, the Pelicans are off a game at Phoenix and playing their third game in the past four days. The Warriors have absolutely dominated New Orleans over the past five years. Expect that to continue here.
|04-06-18||Pacers v. Raptors -7.5||Top||73-92||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO (10* PERS FAV). The Raptors got back on track with a big win against Boston on Wednesday. That victory snapped an extended ATS skid and I expect them to build off it here. While the Raptors had last night off, the Pacers are off a victory over the defending champs. That game had been preceded by a 4-game trip out West for the Pacers, three games in California and the final game in the high altitude of Denver. This will mark the Pacers' seventh straight game in a different arena than the one in which they played their previous game. Playing their third in four nights, against a Raptor team which is a dominant 32-7 here at Toronto, expect it to catch up to them. Raptors roll.
|04-04-18||Celtics v. Raptors -7.5||Top||78-96||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
I’m playing on TORONTO (10* MAIN EVENT). Both teams played and lost yesterday. Today, I expect the Raptors to be the team which bounces back with a big win and cover. The home team has won all three meetings in the season series. The Raptors took the game here at Toronto by a dominating 111-91 score. In fact, they're a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they hosted the Celtics. Expect them to continue that dominance, improving to 33-15 ATS their last 48 divisional games along the way.
|03-31-18||Warriors -8.5 v. Kings||Top||112-96||Win||100||17 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). Its true that the champs have struggled of late. Its true that Curry remains out. Iguodala, too. Don't expect that to slow them down Saturday night though. Off three straight losses and having dropped two of this season's three meetings against Sacramento, Durant and co. are going to be all business here. The Warriors have won 15 of their last 16, when off an 'upset' loss. They're also 29-20-1 ATS (39-11 SU) the past 50 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. Dating back to 3/8 win over the Spurs, the Warriors have only won three games. All three of those victories came by double-digits. Expect another big win here.
|03-30-18||Wolves v. Mavs +5.5||Top||93-92||Win||100||25 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on DALLAS (10* BEST BET). Off Wednesday's 10-point loss to the Lakers, I expect the Mavs to bounce back with their best effort on Friday. The Mavs are 12-4 ATS their last 16, off a double-digit loss. Going back further finds them at a lucrative 41-20-2 ATS their last 63 in that situaion. Having lost all three of this season's meetings with Minnesota, the Mavs are going to be hungry. A look at the Twolves last six road games reveals that NONE of them resulted in a victory of more than five points. In fact, they were just 2-4 SU in those six road games. With the T-Wolves just 6-14 ATS their last 20 overall and potentially looking ahead to their next game (Utah) I'm grabbing the points with the revenge-minded home team.
|03-28-18||Nets v. Magic +2||Top||111-104||Loss||-115||13 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). These teams have been involved in three close games this season. All three were decided by five points or less. In each case, the home team finished on top. Playing at home, where they've dominated the Nets in recent seasons, I expect the Magic to have the advantage this evening. While Orlando's 15-21 home record is certainly nothing to get excited about, its considerably better than the Nets 10-27 mark on the road. Expect the well-rested Magic to improve to 10-4 ATS their last 14, when facing a team which allows 106 or more points per game.
|03-27-18||Cavs v. Heat +3||Top||79-98||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While the Cavs have won their past four, they've been terrible (15-40-1 ATS!) as favorites this season. The Heat, on the other hand, are a solid 22-15 ATS when listed in the underdog role. The Heat are also 41-22 ATS the past few seasons, when facing a team with a winning record, during the second half of the season. During that same stretch, Miami is also a healthy 70-48-2 ATS when playing in the revenge role. The Heat lost by two the last time these teams met. Expect them to give the Cavs all they can handle once again, with a great shot at the outright upset.
|03-26-18||Nuggets +6 v. 76ers||Top||104-123||Loss||-113||25 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). Back in late December, the 76ers upset the Nuggets, at Denver. I expect the revenge-minded Nuggets to bring their 'A game' for Monday's rematch. Note that Denver is an outstanding 7-3 ATS the past 10 times that it attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. Its true that the Nuggets are playing Game 5 of a 7-game road trip. However, they've had the past two days off, after winning at both Chicago and Washington. Note that the Nuggets are 8-3 SU the last 11 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Knowing the final two games of the trip (at Toronto and at OKC) are going to be difficult, I expect the Nuggets to go all out here. Expect AT LEAST a cover, the Nuggets improving to 6-3-1 ATS the past 10 times that they were off three or more consecutive road games.
|03-25-18||Blazers v. Thunder -2||Top||108-105||Loss||-115||27 h 9 m||Show|
I'm playing on OKC (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). Needless to say, this is a huge game in the Northwest Division. After a lengthy winning streak, the Blazers have dropped their last two. Facing a revenge-minded OKC team which is quietly playing some of its best basketball, I expect Portland's losing streak to reach three games. Off a win over Miami last time out, the Thunder have quietly won seven of their past eight. They were 5-2-1 ATS in those games. Having dropped all three games in the season series and sitting one game behind the Blazers in the standings, the Thunder are going to be extremely hungry. Their 26-11 home record is considerably better than Portland's 19-15 mark on the road. OKC finishes on top.
|03-23-18||Clippers v. Pacers -2.5||Top||104-109||Win||100||24 h 48 m||Show|
I'm playing on INDIANA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pacers were 2-0 against the Clippers last season, winning by an average of 15 points per game. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect them to finish on top again this evening. The Pacers had yesterday off. They also have tomorrow off. Additionally, they haven't played back-to-back games (two games in two days) for more than two weeks. Off a loss last time out and knowing they'll face these same Clippers in less than a week, at LA, I expect a highly motivated effort from the Pacers. The Clippers also had yesterday off. However, unlike their hosts, they've had to play b2b games a couple of times recently. That means that this will mark their sixth game in the past nine days. The Pacers are 21-11 ATS (25-7 SU) when listed as favorites. Expect a win and cover for the home team.
|03-22-18||76ers v. Magic +7||Top||118-98||Loss||-126||27 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on ORLANDO. I won with the Magic when they hosted the Raptors on Tuesday. At the time, I mentioned that they'd been quietlly competitive here at Orlando. Once again, they've got a favorable schedule. While they had yesterday off, the 76ers are off a Wednesday game vs. Memphis. Playing their third game in the past four days, it should be easy for the 76ers to take their hosts lightly. The Magic are going to be hungry though; the 76ers beat them by double-digits in each of this season's meetings and the Magic are going to be looking to show they can play with them. I'm grabbing the points.
|03-21-18||Clippers v. Bucks -4.5||Top||127-120||Loss||-110||27 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bucks are considerably better at home than they are on the road. Monday's loss at Cleveland, which will have them in an 'angry' mood, dropped the Bucks to 15-19 on the road. However, they've won back-to-back games here at home, where they're a healthy 22-14. While the Bucks had yesterday off, the Clippers are off a big 'TV' game at Minnesota. This will be their sixth straight road game. They'll be playing their third game in four days and their fifth game in the past seven. With the schedule in their favor, expect the Bucks, who know they'll face these same Clippers at LA in less than a week, to bounce back with a big win and cover.
|03-20-18||Raptors v. Magic +10||Top||93-86||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). With a game against the Cavs on deck tomorrow, it should be easy for the Raptors to look past the lowly Magic tonight. The Magic come in well-rested. Unlike their guests, they don't have to play tomorrow. Yes, the Raptors did beat them by 13 here a couple of weeks ago. However, that was the ONLY one of the the Magic's last 10 games, here at Orlando, which resulted in a double-digit loss. (Orlando was 5-5 in those games, the other four losses all came by nine or less.) Even with that result, the Magid are still a healthy 10-3 ATS their last 13 against teams which score 106 or more ppg. I expect them to improve on those stats this evening.
|03-17-18||Hornets v. Knicks +7||Top||101-124||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* BEST BET). As bad as the Knicks have been, I believe that they're providing us with plenty of value today. Even with a win last time out, the Hornets are still only 11-22 on the road. I don't believe that they should currently be "laying a touchdown" away from home, regardless of the venue. Note that the Knicks' 16-17 home record is considerably better than Charlotte's road record. Not surprisingly, the home team is already 2-0 in the season series. The Knicks won by five, as 2-point underdogs, in the earlier game here. They're 4-1 SU/ATS their last five as a host in the series. With the Knicks at 3-1 ATS in home games when the O/U line was set at 220 or higher, I'm grabbing all those generous points.
|03-15-18||Hornets v. Hawks +5||Top||129-117||Loss||-105||10 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). I won with the Hornets in their last game. However, tonight they're laying points, not getting them. That said, I now feel that the value has shifted to their opponent. While neither team will be going to the playoffs, the Hawks come in playing with 'triple revenge,' having lost all three of this season's earlier meetings. The Hornets have won just one of their past seven games and that lone SU victory was a non-cover at Phoenix. Off four straight losses and with their next six games on the road, the Hawks know that they need to take advantage of a struggling guest, now playing out the string. If not, it could be a long time before they win again. Expect the Hawks the hungrier team, as they earn AT LEAST a cover and improve to 12-6 ATS the past 18 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses.
|03-14-18||Lakers v. Warriors -7||Top||106-117||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF MONTH). Sure, the Lakers are playing well of late. However, getting the champs at this low a line, with the schedule in their favor, is a steal. Of course, the low line is a result of the injuries to Curry and Green. Obviously, those are two significant losses. However, Durant is still going to be the best player on the floor and he's still got enough of a supporting cast to take care of business here. Note that Kuzma hurt his ankle for LA in the third quarter of last night's game. He did return to play in the fourth but it was "clearly bothering him." (according to Lakers reporter Mike Trudel) Even if he goes, its going to be tough to be 100% effective, when playing the second game of a b2b situation, on an ankle thats anything less than 100%. Render him less effective than normal and the Lakers are in trouble; with Ingram out, Kuzma has been doing a lot for them. Either way, note that the Lakers are just 4-6 ATS (3-7 SU) when playing the second of b2b games. Off b2b losses, the champs are going to be in an angry mood. They've only lost two in a row one other time this season and they responded with an 18-point win. The Warriors, whp are well-rested here, are 13-1 SU their last 14, off a loss when favored. Expect them to improve on those stats tonight, covering the small number along the way.
|03-09-18||Lakers v. Nuggets -6.5||Top||116-125||Win||100||27 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* GAME OF WEEK). The home team has easily won both meetings so far this season. The Lakers won by 18, at LA. The Nuggets won by 15, here at Denver. Not surprising, given that the Nuggets have a 24-10 record here, as compared to an 11-20 mark on the road.The teams will face each other again, at LA, on Tuesday. Knowing that to be the case, I expect the Nuggets to go all out to again "hold serve" at home. Not only do the Nuggets score more than 111 ppg here, they also allow just 105.6 ppg. By comparison, the Lakers allow a whopping 113.4 ppg on the road. Off b2b losses and with four losses in their past six games, the Nuggets are going to be hungry. Expect them to bounce back, improving to 9-4 the last 13 times that they were off an "upset" loss, while covering the reasonable number along the way.
|03-08-18||Nets v. Hornets -7||Top||125-111||Loss||-103||13 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* VIOLATOR). The Nets are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. At the end of a road trip, the Nets figure to be already looking forward to getting home. Off four straight losses, the Hornets can't afford to look ahead to anything. They know that they absolutely need to take care of business here. The Hornets hosted the Nets a couple of weeks ago. Laying -8.5, they won by 15. Expect another double-digit victory here.
|03-05-18||Celtics v. Bulls +9||Top||105-89||Loss||-106||21 h 23 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* VIOLATOR). I liked what I saw from the Bulls in their last game, a 108-100 win over Dallas. While Boston obviously represents a step up in class from the Mavs, I stil expect the Bulls to carry their positive momentum into this evening's game. Off a loss last time out, the Celtics are just 5-5 their past 10 games. The Bulls, who have had a couple days off since the Dallas win, are 7-4 ATS when playing with exactly two day's rest in between games. Going back further finds them at 22-14 ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons. While they lost at Boston, the Bulls already beat the Celtics here. They were listed as 5.5 point underdogs yet won outright by 23. We're getting considerably more points to work with here and I expect AT LEAST another cover.
|03-02-18||Mavs v. Bulls +1.5||Top||100-108||Win||100||13 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BEST BET). Talk about insulting. The Mavs are 7-20 on the road. Yet, they're favored (slightly) at Chicago. I expect the Bulls, 13-17 at home, to take that slight personally. With a 3-0 ATS mark their past three games, admittedly, the Mavs have played fairly well recently. However, playing hard against OKC, only to come up a point short in a 111-110 loss on Wednesday, figures to take a toll on them here. Plus, when you're playing out the string, its easier to get up for a home game against a conference opponent which is going to the playoffs, then for a road game against a non-conf, non-playoff opponent. The Bulls are 6-4 ATS when playing with two day's rest. Going back further finds them at 22-16 ATS, when off three or more consecutive losses. Expect them to take advantage of this favorable matchup.
|02-28-18||Pelicans v. Spurs -4.5||Top||121-116||Loss||-102||28 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on SAN ANTONIO (10* GAME OF MONTH). I really like how this one sets up for the home team. One of the potential problems with betting on the Spurs, when they are playing either the front-end or the back-end, of a back-to-back situation, is that healthy starters often get rested. However, with this being an "isolated" game, thats unlikely to be the case here. Not only did the Spurs have the past couple of days off but they also get the next couple of nights off. In other words, while Leonard remains out indefinitely and Gasol may miss with injury, all "healthy" players should be good to go. With a 22-6 home record, they're still playing excellent basketball here. To their credit, the Pelicans have continued to play very well since Cousins went down. I expect a number of recent hard-fought OT games to catch up with them here though. After playing an OT game against Miami on the 23rd, the Pelicans played another OT game at Milwaukee two days later. Even with a day off Tuesday, this will still be their fourth game in the past six days. The Pelicans have actually beaten the Spurs in two of the past three meetings. However, all three of those games were at New Orleans. The Spurs have beaten the Pelicans each of the past five meetings here at San Antonio, taking each of last season's games here by double-digits. The Spurs have been "laying double-digits" in all four of the last four meetings here. We're getting a much lower line to work with here and I feel thats providing us with excellent value.
|02-27-18||Clippers v. Nuggets -3.5||Top||122-120||Loss||-110||28 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). Given their outstanding home record, the Nuggets aren't getting much respect here. Even with a close loss 119-114 against Houston last time out, the Nuggets are still 24-8 here. Speaking of Houston. While the Nuggets have tomorrow off, the Clippers have a big showdown vs. the Rockets on deck tomorrow. The Nuggets, who beat the Clippers by double-digits each of the last two meetings (40 combined points) here, are 11-4 SU the past 15 times that they allowed 115 or more points in their previous game. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way.
|02-26-18||Bulls v. Nets -2.5||Top||87-104||Win||100||26 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* PERS FAV). The home team won and covered both meetings in this series last season. In a battle of struggling teams, I expect homecourt to again prove significant. While the Nets "only" get outscored by 3.2 ppg at home, the Bulls get outscored by 8.9 ppg when playing on the road. The Nets come in well-rested. They're 4-2 SU/ATS the past six times that they played with three or more day's worth of rest in between games. Going back further finds them at 14-9 ATS their past 23 in that situation. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|02-25-18||76ers v. Wizards -1.5||Top||94-109||Win||100||14 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* MAIN EVENT). While they came up short vs. Charlotte on Friday, the Wizards have been decent without Wall. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I feel that they're offering excellent value on Sunday evening. While Washington had yesterday off, the 76ers are off a win against Orlando. They'll be playing their third game in four days here. The Wizards, who lost 122-105 on Friday, are 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven times that they were off a double-digit loss. They're also 8-5 ATS (10-3 SU) after allowing 115 or more points in their previous game. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|02-22-18||76ers v. Bulls +6.5||Top||116-115||Win||100||12 h 15 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* ANNIHILATOR). The home team has won both meetings. I expect homecourt to again prove significant. With their 117-115 win here earlier, the Bulls are 4-1 SU/ATS their last five as a host, 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) their last 10 in the series overall. While the 76ers, who had been hot, may have preferred to just keep playing, the break figures to have come at the right time for the Bulls. They're 8-2-1 ATS their last 11, when playing with three or more day's rest, 2-0-1 ATS their last three. Lets not forget that the Bulls still have more wins at home than the 76ers do on the road. All things considered, this number is generously high. I'm taking the points.
|02-15-18||Lakers v. Wolves -10||Top||111-119||Loss||-108||11 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). While the Lakers spent yesterday getting destroyed by Anthony Davis and the Pelicans, the T-Wolves had the day off. The Lakers have now allowed 130 and 139 points in their last two games. Note that they're now 0-4 SU/ATS their last four, after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game. Going back further finds them at an ugly 2-10 ATS (1-11 SU) their last 12 in that situation. The T-Wolves, 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 home games when the O/U line was set at 220 or more, have already hammered the Lakers twice this season. Expect another double-digit win tonight.
|02-13-18||Rockets v. Wolves +3||Top||126-108||Loss||-105||10 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* ANNIHILATOR). These teams will meet again at Houston, after the All Star Break. The Wolves know that winning that 2/23 game will be difficult. They also haven't forgotten that the Rockets hammered them there a few weeks ago. That makes "holding serve" important here, if they'd like to prove that they can hang with one of the top teams in the league. Of course, they're also fighting to hang on to top spot in their division. While the Rockets are an impressive 20-7 on the road, the Wolves are an even better 23-6 at home. With an O/U line of 222, note that the Wolves are an impressive 7-1-1 ATS their last nine, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|02-11-18||Raptors v. Hornets +3||Top||123-103||Loss||-110||19 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). While the Raptors are on a nice roll, I expect them to have their hands full on Sunday afternoon. Off back-to-back divisional wins and having won four straight overall, the Raptors could be starting to get a little complacent. On other hand, the Hornets are going to be in an angry mood. Not only have the Raptors beaten them in both this season's meetings but the Hornets have also lost their last three games in a row. This is just the Hornets' third 3-game skid since early December. They answered the previous 3-game losing streaks by beating the Thunder by 13 and the Knicks by 18.
|02-10-18||Lakers v. Mavs +1||Top||123-130||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on DALLAS (10* VIOLATOR). These teams will meet at LA in less than two weeks. Playing at home, where they hammered the Lakers in both meetings last season, I expect the Mavs to "hold serve" this evening. Yes, I successfully went against the Mavs last time out. However, that was on the road against the defending champs, who were coming in angry off b2b losses. Now, the Mavs are at home and facing a Laker team which just shook up its lineup. While it remains to be seen how Thomas will work out, he hasn't been playing well offensively this season and his defense has been a liability. Meanwhile, Clarkson and Nance were both providing solid minutes. While Ball remains out for LA, the Mavs are expected to have Barnes back in the starting lineup. While the Lakers get outscored by an average score of 112.2 to 106.5 on the road, the Mavs outscore teams by a 102.2 to 101.6 margin here at Dallas. The Mavs are 36-20-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, off a double-digit loss, 7-4 ATS their last 11 in that situation. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here.
|02-09-18||Clippers v. Pistons -2.5||Top||108-95||Loss||-110||27 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT. While they haven't covered the spread in all those games, the Pistons have quietly won five in a row. Needless to say, the move to pick up Blake Griffin is currently looking pretty good. Facing Griffin's former team should provide plenty of incentive to make it six straight. With the recent win streak, the Pistons are a solid 18-10 at home on the season. On the other hand, the Clippers are below .500 (11-13) when playing on the road. While both teams had yesterday off, the Pistons also have tomorow off while LA will play at Philadelphia. Expect homecourt to make the difference, the Pistons continuing to roll while covering the small number along the way.
|02-08-18||Mavs v. Warriors -12.5||Top||103-121||Win||100||12 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* TNT MAIN EVENT). The Mavs are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. While the Mavs kept things close, at Dallas, the last time that these teams met, the Warriors won the first two meetings by 30 and 15 points. I'm expecting another lopsided affair here. The Warriors weren't crisp last time out and got a wake-up call with a blowout loss against the Thunder. That marked their second straight defeat, the first time thats happened this season, and should ensure that they're "all business" here. While Durant remains a game-time decision, Curry, Green, Thompson (who will be celebrating his bday) and co. bring more than enough to the table, even if KD sits. Expect the Warriors to bounce back, improving to 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU) the past seven times that they were off a double-digit win.
|02-07-18||Nets v. Pistons -9||Top||106-115||Push||0||21 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* VIOLATOR). This is a tough spot for the Nets. Already banged-up, they lost Chris Lavert to injury in a hard-fought loss against Houston on Tuesday. Now, in addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, they'll also be playing their third game in the past four days. Going back a little further shows that this will mark the Nets' sixth game in the past nine days. Thats one extra game than the Pistons, who had yesterday off, have had to squeeze into the same stretch. The Pistons' lineup is now considerably stronger with the addition of Griffin. Last time out, they hammered Portland by 20. The fact that the Nets upset them here a few weeks ago should ensure that the Pistons are fully focused. Expect them to avenge that loss in blowout fashion, improving to 6-3-1 ATS the past 10 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss.
|02-05-18||Blazers v. Pistons -2||Top||91-111||Win||100||11 h 42 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* PERS FAV). The schedule-maker is again helping the Pistons. While Portland is off a hard-fought Sunday afternoon loss at the buzzer, at Boston, the Pistons had Sunday off. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, the Blazers will be playing their third game in four days. It will also mark their fifth game in seven days. Factor in that the first of those was in LA, in the Western Time Zone, and that's a pretty difficult week. The Pistons swept the Blazers last season and they've thrived against teams from the West this season. They're 11-6-1 ATS in non-conference action. Expect them to imrprove on those stats here.
|02-04-18||Hornets v. Suns +6||Top||115-110||Win||100||19 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHOENIX (10* BEST BET). After winning big against Dallas two games ago, the Suns stumbled last time out. I expect them to bounce back with a much better effort on Sunday afternoon. Both teams had yesterday off. However, while the Suns also have tomorrow off, the Hornets have a game at Denver. While they're tough to beat at Charlotte, the Hornets are just 7-15 on the road. Expect the Suns to give them all they can handle with an excellent shot at the outright upset.
|02-03-18||Heat v. Pistons -3.5||Top||107-111||Win||100||10 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* PERS FAV). The home team has won and covered both meetings this season. We should see more of the same here. While the Heat are off a hard-fought loss at Philly yesterday, the Pistons had yesterday off. They didn't cover last time out but did win, Griffin fitting in nicely. All the Pistons' new star did was deliever 24 points and 10 rebounds, without committing a turnover. Now, they've had a chance to work together a little more, he should have another big game. The Pistons are 14-9-2 ATS the past 25 times that they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. Catching the Heat playing their their road game in the past four days, expect them to improve on those stats here.
|02-02-18||Lakers v. Nets -1.5||Top||102-99||Loss||-115||26 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Lakers won when these teams met at LA earlier. Playing at home, I expect the Nets to avenge that loss this evening. While the Lakers have seven wins on the road, the Nets have nine at home. One of those came last time out, a fairly impressive 116-108 win over the 76ers. On the other hand, still playing without Lonzo Ball, the Lakers have been blown out in back-to-back games. With Brook Lopez returning to Brooklyn, one might think this game could have some extra meaning for LA. Lopez, though still starting, is frustrated with inconsistent playing time down the stretch though. He saw just nine mins. in the 22-point loss at Orlando. I prefer the way things are looking in Brooklyn. Revenge-minded Nets make it two in a row.
|02-01-18||Raptors -3 v. Wizards||Top||119-122||Loss||-109||12 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO (10* VIOLATOR). Playing their first game without Wall, the Wizards upset the Thunder last time out. Don't expect a repeat performance against this disciplined Raptor team. The Raptors have been on the verge of "taking the next step" for a few years. With the Cavs perhaps a little weaker, they see this year as their chance. At 34-15, they've been playing well nearly every time out, regardless of venue. They outscore teams by a 111.1 to 103.8 average margin overall and that includes a 109.8 to 105.6 mark on the road. Note that the Raptors are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS their last four visits here, too. They were underdogs for both games here last season, yet won 114-106 and 113-103. With the Wizards just 2-8 SU/ATS their last 10, when off an upset victory, I expect the Raptors to continue their recent success here, covering the small number along the way.
|01-31-18||Hornets v. Hawks +2.5||Top||123-110||Loss||-110||25 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* REVENGE GAME OF MONTH). These teams have met twice so far this season. With both games played at Charlotte, its not surprising that the Hornets won each of them. This evening's game is being played at Atlanta though and I like the revenge-minded Hawks to come away with the cash. While the Hornets are a somewhat respectable 14-14 at home, they're an ugly 6-15 on the road. Note that Charlotte lost Marvin Williams to injury last time out. Williams isn't a star but he is a solid starter who does a lot for them and who is likely to be missed here. The Hawks scored an upset of Minnesota last time out. Not bad considering that the T-Wolves entered that game in first place in the northwest division. Expect them to be at their best once again.
|01-30-18||Wolves v. Raptors -6||Top||104-109||Loss||-115||26 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO (10* ANNIHILATOR). These teams met a couple of weeks ago, at Minnesota. Some of you will likely recall that game, as we won with Minnesota. Here's an excerpt from the analysis of that game:
"... I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Raptors are off a hard-fought, physical affair against the Spurs last night. They're now playing their third game in the past four days. The T-Wolves, on the other hand, had yesterday off. Off b2b losses, they're going to be in an angry mood. They'll also be happy to return home, where they're a healthy 18-6 on the season. The Wolves have beaten the Raptors here each of the past two seasons and they're arguably a stronger team now than they were for either of those games .... With the schedule in they're favor, expect another win and cover for the Wolves this evening."
Tonight, however, the shoe is on the other foot. Tonight, the Raptors are the team which is playing at home. Tonight, its the Raptors who come in rested. Tonight, its the Wolves who played last night and who are playing their third game in four days. In fact, the Wolves, who are excellent at home but below .500 on the road, will be playing their fifth game in the past seven days. Look for the rested, revenge-minded Raptors to improve to 19-4 at home, picking up the cover along the way.
|01-29-18||Celtics v. Nuggets -1.5||Top||111-110||Loss||-115||27 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). While I respect the Celtics, I like how this one sets up for the Nuggets. Boston checks in off a hard-fought loss at Golden State, taking the defending champs down to the wire. Up next, the Celtics have a "divisional revenge game" against the Knicks. That could easily have them less than 100% focused on tonight's game at Denver. That'll prove costly though as the Nuggets are an excellent 19-6 at home. The Nuggets played the Celtics tough at Boston earlier, losing by six. The Nuggets also won by 20, as 2.5 point underdogs, when they hosted the Celtics last season. Playing with revenge from the mid-December loss and catching the Celtics at the "right time," expect another win and cover for the Nuggets on Monday.
|01-27-18||Mavs v. Nuggets -7||Top||89-91||Loss||-115||28 h 48 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* PERS FAV). With a series of more difficult games on deck - next four games come against BOS, OKC, SA and GWS - the Nuggets know that they absolutely need to take care of business here. The Nuggets, who are 18-6 at home, had Friday night off. They also have Sunday off. There's no reason not to be fully focused. On the other hand, the Mavs, 6-16 on the road, are off a late Friday night game vs. Portland. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, they'll be playing their third game in the past four days. With the venue and schedule in their favor, expect the Nuggets to come away with the win and cover.