|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|06-13-19||Raptors v. Warriors -3.5||Top||114-110||Loss||-100||61 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I've stated several times that the Raptors rarely do anything easily. They had a chance to close out the series in Game 5 but didn't. Having missed that opportunity, I fully expect this series to go the distance. The Warriors are now 14-6 ATS their last 20 when trailing in a playoff series, 8-3 ATS when facing elimination. While the champs won't have Durant, they do have Curry and Thompson now firing on all cylinders. They didn't have Thompson for the first of the two previous home games and he was still in his first game back for the second. Cousins, too, has found his form. Kerr had this to say of his volatile center: "I thought DeMarcus was fantastic tonight. He stayed ready. He didn’t get the first call for that second-quarter run. We went to [Andrew Bogut] and then with the injury we knew we needed his scoring and he stayed ready and played a brilliant game. I'm so happy for him and he's been through an awful lot himself over the last year plus his own injuries." The Warriors are 9-2 SU/ATS their last 11 when playing a Game 6. Momentum back in their corner, expect them to improve on those stats here.
|06-07-19||Raptors v. Warriors -5.5||Top||105-92||Loss||-104||36 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. While Durant has been ruled out, the Warriors are expecting to get Thompson back. Needless to say, that'll be a big help. After the Warriors lost Game 1, I played on them in Game 2. At the time, I said that the "Raptors rarely do anything easily." Expect them to have their hands full with the desperate champs tonight. The Raptors aren't likely to get another massive performance (6-3-pointers) from Danny Green. The Warriors know that they can't afford to lose this one. They're going to be playing with extreme intensity right from the opening tipoff. Expect them to dig deep and even up the series, covering the relatively small number along the way.
|06-02-19||Warriors +2 v. Raptors||Top||109-104||Win||100||57 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs had a very long layoff before Game 1. So, its not surprising that they were a bit rusty. That won't be an issue in Game 2 though. Down a game, we're going to see the Warriors' very best. The Raptors have been impressive in these playoffs. However, they rarely do anything the 'easy' way. Off a big win in Game 1, we can expect them to have their hands full in this one. Kawhai has been outstanding throughout the playoffs but he's battling a nagging injury and was noticably hobbling at times in Game 1. Siakam was the difference in Game 1. However, with the Warriors adjusting (probably a lot more Green on him) he's highly unlikely to match that effort in Game 2. The Warriors are 32-11 SU their last 43 when off a road loss. Expect them to dig deep and even up the series.
|05-25-19||Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors||Top||94-100||Loss||-106||35 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. After dominating the Pistons and the Celtics, perhaps the Bucks weren't quite ready for the type of street-fight that the Raptors were going to give them. I still think they're the more talented team though and they've had five games to get used to the Raptors intensity. Facing elimination for the first time, I expect Antekoumpo and co. to be at their very best. The Bucks did win here back in January, so they know that they can win in this building. They held Toronto to just 92 points in that game. The Raptors got a huge game from Van Fleet on Thursday; thats unlikely to happen again. Brogdon moved back into the starting lineup in Game 5. Thats a big help for Giannis as it gives them another ball handler. Bledsoe had been playing poorly on offense but was better in Game 5, scoring 20 points. A week ago, everyone was counting out the Raptors and I said not to do so. Now, I'm saying, don't count out the Bucks. This series is going the distance.
|05-23-19||Raptors v. Bucks -7||Top||105-99||Loss||-104||36 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I successfully backed the Raptors in both their wins at Toronto. So, I'm not at all surprised that the series is tied. That said, playing at home, I expect the Bucks to take this pivotal game. The Bucks earned the right to play Game 5 (and Game 7, if necessary) here at Milwaukee by being the best team all season. Even off their Game 4 loss, they're still 22-2 SU and 19-5 ATS when off a loss. Prior to their current 2-game skid, they'd only lost twice in a row once all season. Off that previous 2-game skid, they responded with a 19-point win over Indiana, holding the Pacers to 98 points. They're 9-1 ATS (10-0 SU) after having lost two of their last three. The Raptors are an exhausted team as they fought a lot harder to get here than Milwaukee did and as they're starters are logging heavy minutes. The home crowd in Toronto helped provide energy but they won't have that going for them here. The Bucks won the first two games here by eight and 22 points. Expect more of the same Thursday.
|05-21-19||Bucks v. Raptors +2.5||Top||102-120||Win||100||26 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO. I won with the Raptors in Game 3 and I'm coming right back with them in Game 4. In Game 3, the Raptors were favored. Now, we're getting them as underdogs. While I do expect an outright win, that's definitely some added value. Yes, I'm aware that Milwaukee was great off a loss in the regular season. However, this is a whole different situation. The Bucks had their chance to knock the Raptors out. If they'd won on Sunday and went up 3-0, the series was finished. They probably would have go on to sweep and that would have likely ended the Kawai ere in Toronto. That didn't happen though and the resilient Raptors now have life and momentum. They did an amazing job on Antetokounmpo, as he was 5-16 before fouling out. Losing Lowry, who fouled out in the fourth, was a huge blow for the Raptors, particularly on a night where guys like Green and Van Fleet were really struggling with their shot. To survive that and win without Lowry is going to be really good for this team. I expect Kawai and Lowry to get more help from their secondary players in this one, leading to another Raptors win.
|05-19-19||Bucks v. Raptors -2.5||Top||112-118||Win||100||35 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO. The Raptors embarrassed themselves in Game 2. Back home, I expect an extremely determined effort on Sunday. This is a battle-tested Toronto team. It wasn't long ago that the Raptors were off their huge Game 7 win against Philly. Then, they almost stole Game 1 of this series. One bad game doesn't make them a bad team. The Raptors have still won five of six (and eight of their last 10) here at home. The Raptors are also a perfect 4-0 SU when off a road loss of 20 or more points, 1-0 SU/ATS in these playoffs. They still believe that they can win this series. While that remains to be seen, I fully expect them to take Game 3, covering the small number along the way.
|05-18-19||Warriors v. Blazers -2||Top||110-99||Loss||-113||13 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND. The Warriors have treated me well since Durant went down. I won with them in their Game 6 close-out victory at Houston. (I also won with them in Game 1 of this series. Last game, I won with the total and didn't play the side.) Tonight, however, I expect Durant's absence to finally catch up with them. The Blazers have been a very resilient team these entire playoffs and they're not going to go down without a fight. With the Game 2 cover, the Blazers are 3-0 ATS when trailing in these playoffs. They're also 33-23 ATS (45-11 SU) when they were favored. Additionally, they're 5-1 SU/ATS off two or more consecutive road lossses. While the Warriors are a very solid 31-16 on the road, the Blazers are an even better 37-10 here at home. They beat the Warriors by 22 points the last meeting here. Expect them to play with desperation and for them to finish on top once again.
|05-15-19||Raptors v. Bucks -6||Top||100-108||Win||100||28 h 19 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. As you likely saw, the Raptors are off a thrilling Game 7 win against the 76ers. That was an extremely hard-fought and emotional series and I feel that the Raptors may experience a slight letdown in Wednesday's series opener with the Bucks. Unlike Toronto, Milwaukee is very well rested. The Bucks have been winning big these entire playoffs. They're 8-1 SU/ATS overall. All eight victories came by a minimum of seven points. Seven came by double-digits. The Bucks took three of four regular season meetings, two of their three wins coming by double-digits. Catching the Raptors off perhaps their biggest win in franchise history, I like the Bucks to pull away for another double-digit win here.
|05-14-19||Blazers v. Warriors -8||Top||94-116||Win||100||36 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. As of this writing, Durant remains doubtful for this game. However, his absence didn't stop me from successfully backing the champs in their Game 6 win at Houston and it won't keep me from backing them here. That Game 6 victory was huge for the Warriors. Not only did they prove again that they could win without KD but it also gave them some extra time to rest, recover and prepare for Portland. Thats a luxury which the Blazers don't have, as they're fresh off a gritty Game 7 win at Denver on Sunday afternoon. That series was extremely hard-fought and I feel that it will take a toll on the Blazers. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by double-digits. I expect the combination of the extra rest and homecourt advantage to prove the difference, Curry and co. pulling away for another double-digit win.
|05-10-19||Warriors +7.5 v. Rockets||Top||118-113||Win||100||33 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Obviously, the loss of Durant is a huge blow. Prior to the injury, he was on track to being the playoff MVP. That said, the Warriors are still fully capable of winning without him. Thompson finally got going last game. Curry started slow but also got going when they needed him. Don't forget that Green (and perhaps others) would love to show that they don't need Durant to win. You may recall Green previously saying something along the lines of this to Durant: "You're a b***h and you know you’re a b***h ... We don't need you. We won without you. Leave." Eight straight meetings between these teams have been decided by six or less. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points.
|05-09-19||Raptors v. 76ers +2||Top||101-112||Win||100||35 h 59 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the Raptors were dominant in Game 5, I expect the 76ers to bounce back big in Game 6. The Raptors are just 12-16-1 ATS as road favorites. That includes a 4-9-1 ATS mark as road favorites of six or fewer points. Its also worth noting that Toronto is just 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times it was off a home win vs. a divisional opponent. While the Raptors have a fairly impressive 29-16 record on the road overall, the 76ers are a much better 34-12 at home. They're 30-16 ATS the past 2+ seasons as home underdogs, 19-11 ATS as home underdogs of six or less. During that span, they're also 10-3-1 ATS after scoring 90 or fewer points in their previous game. Additionally, the 76ers are 13-4 ATS their last 17, when off a road loss against a divisional opponent. That includes a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark their last six in that situation. Expect Philly to bounce back, sending the series back to Toronto for Game 7.
|05-08-19||Rockets v. Warriors -5.5||Top||99-104||Loss||-113||30 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. I won with the Rockets in Game 3 and Game 4. I backed them in Game 3 as I really didn't expect them to just roll over. Off the OT win in Game 3, I liked their momentum for Game 4. However, we're back at Oracle now and I expect the champs to remind everyone that they're still the best in the West. The Rockets are 23-22 away from Houston. The Warriors are 31-13 at home. The Warriors are 3-1 ATS their last four, when tied in a playoff series. They're also 5-2 ATS their last seven (6-1 SU) when playing with double-revenge - 2 straight losses against the same opponent. Expect a statement victory.
|05-04-19||Warriors v. Rockets -3.5||Top||121-126||Win||100||78 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Rockets played the Warriors tough at Oracle, losing by four and six points. Back on their home floor, desperate for a win, I expect them to break through with a win and cover. While the Warriors are an excellent 30-14 on the road, the Rockets are an even better 34-10 at home. The Warriors haven't missed Cousins yet but I expect his absence to be felt here. The Rockets beat the Jazz by 59 combined points in the three games here in the first round. While they've now lost their last three against the champs, the Rockets are 5-1 SU/ATS their last six, when facing a team which has defeated them in the previous three meetings. They're 8-1-1 ATS (9-1 SU) when playing with double-revenge, going 25-10-2 ATS (30-7 SU) in that situation the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to elevate their level of play en route to a critical win and cover.
|05-03-19||Bucks +2 v. Celtics||Top||123-116||Win||100||31 h 41 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. I won with the Bucks in Game 2 (after nailing the Under in Game 1) and I'm coming right back with them again on Friday. While the Celtics are surely happy to be home, the Bucks have no problem playing on the road. In fact, they're 29-14 (26-15-2 ATS) when playing away from Milwaukee. The Bucks have no problem playing here at Boston, either. Their last visit here resulted in a 120-107 victory. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS as road underdogs. The Celtics, who got blown out in Game 2, are just 5-15 ATS when off a road loss. That includes a 1-6 ATS mark when off a double-digit road loss. The Bucks made the necessary adjustments after the opener and Antetokounmpo returned to his usual self (29/10) in Game 2. The Celtics aren't going to have any answer for him here. I'll grab the points but expect the Bucks to win outright.
|04-30-19||Celtics v. Bucks -7||Top||102-123||Win||100||51 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. While I won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series, I'm backing the Bucks in Game 2. The Celtics did an excellent job of slowing down Antetokounmpo in the opener. Obviously, that was great for me. Don't expect the Greek Freak to stay silent though. Giannis has been a monster all year and is off a first round series which saw him average 26.3 ppg and 12 rebounds, while also adding 3.5 assists and 1.5 blocks. Those stats would have even been better if the Bucks didn't win those games by such a wide margin. The Bucks have been amazing at bouncing back from losses all season long. They're 21-1 SU and 18-4 ATS off a loss. The only time that they lost two in a row all season was when they were right at the end of a road trip. That includes a 5-0 ATS record when off a double-digit loss and a 15-3 ATS mark when off an upset loss overall. With the Celtics just 7-13 ATS after playing two or more consecutive road games, look for Giannis and the Bucks to make the necessary adjustments, leading them to a convincing win and cover for Game 2.
|04-29-19||76ers +6.5 v. Raptors||Top||94-89||Win||100||33 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I'm well aware that the Raptors have historically fared very well at home against the 76ers. However, thats not enough to prevent me from backing Philly in Game 2. The 76ers have arguably as much talent as any team in the league. After dropping Game 1, I expect their stars to rise to the occasion here. The 76ers also dropped Game 1 of their opening series. They won Game 2 by more than 20, putting up a whopping 145 points. Even with their victory on Saturday, the Raptors are still just 2-6-1 ATS (1-8 SU!) their last nine second round playoff games. While the Raptors are 4-7 ATS off a divisional win and 2-5 ATS off a home divisional win, the 76ers are 8-1 ATS their last nine off a divisional loss, a perfect 5-0 ATS off a divisonal road loss. While an outright upset won't surprise, I'm grabbing the points!
|04-24-19||Clippers v. Warriors -14||Top||129-121||Loss||-105||59 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Since the Clippers came back to shock them in Game 2, the champs have been on a mission. They won Game 3 and Game 4 by a combined 35 points. With a chance to close out the series here, I expect them to be all business right from the opening tip. Despite blowing the cover in Game 4, the Warriors remain a dominant 29-12 ATS (30-11 SU) their last 41 first round playoff games. In other words, when they win in the first round, they almost always cover. The Clippers are just 6-10 ATS off a home loss. Going back further finds them at an ugly 19-29 ATS in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. The Warriors won Game 1 here by 17. Before their meltdown in Game 2, they were on pace for another decisive win and cover. That meltdown will ensure that they'll keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. Expect them to advance to the next round in blowout fashion.
|04-22-19||Bucks v. Pistons +12||Top||127-104||Loss||-103||25 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT. Needless to say, Milwaukee has dominated this series. That said, I don't expect Detroit to just quit and feel that this line is too high. Down 3-0, we saw the Pacers battle until the end against Boston yesterday. The Celtics won by four. The Pistons will also fight hard the entire way. The Pistons are still 26-16 on this floor, not much different from Milwaukee's 28-14 road record. Griffin returned in Game 3 and played well; he just didn't get much help. Coach Casey commented: "That young man is giving us everything he has. He said he was feeling good. I was concerned about his conditioning with as much time as he's missed. You can't really simulate 5-on-5 basketball when you're rehabbing. But he came in and gave us what he could. He just has a presence that we can't replicate." While the Bucks did win the last one here by 16, the two regular season games here were decided by 10 and three points. Expect this one to be closer, the Pistons not making it easy and ultimately covering the generous number.
|04-20-19||Rockets v. Jazz -3||Top||104-101||Loss||-103||57 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on UTAH. After dropping both games at Houston, the Jazz have now lost four of their last five overall. However, a closer look reveals that all four of those losses came on the road. The lone home game resulted in a double-digit win over Denver. Indeed, this team is much better on its home floor. While the Rockets are 22-19 on the road, the Jazz are 29-12 at home. Note that they're also 5-1 SU/ATS after having lost four of their previous five. Both Utah's losses at Houston came by 20 or more points. Thats only happened twice the past 2+ seasons, situations where the Jazz were off b2b losses of 20 or more. In both cases, they won and covered their next one. Overall, they're 11-6 ATS off b2b road losses. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Saturday.
|04-19-19||Blazers v. Thunder -7||Top||108-120||Win||100||61 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on OKC. The Blazers took both games at Portland. Playing at home, desperate for a win, I expect the Thunder to respond with their best effort in Game 3. Note that they're 4-1 ATS their last five, when off b2b losses against a divisional opponent. While the Blazers are very tough to beat at home, they're mediocre on the road. They're also 1-3 ATS as road underdogs in the +6.5 +12 range. The Thunder are 27-14 at home. They won both regular season meetings here. Scores were 120-111 and 123-114. When Nurkic went down a few weeks ago, it was a big blow to the Blazers, as he'd been playing great. To their credit, the Blazers haven't missed a beat. Kanter has proven to be a key pickup. That said, I feel that the Nurkic loss will eventually catch up with them and I say that happens here. Expect Adams to get the better of Kanter, his former teammate, the rest of the Thunder digging deep and improving to 11-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games.
|04-16-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5||Top||105-114||Win||100||56 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER. The Spurs scored the upset in Game 1. Don't expect it to happen again here. The Nuggets remain a dominant 34-8 here at home. The Spurs are still 17-25 on the road. The Nuggets, 7-1 SU when playing with two day's rest in between games, are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS after failing to cover in three or more in a row. Jokic is unstoppable. Though he got a triple-double in Game 1, he was often getting double-teamed and forced to pass. It didn't help that the Nuggets as a team shot terribly from the outside, hitting 21% from beyond the arc. Thats not going to happen again though; they normally hit 35% of their 3-point shots. They normally average 113.7 ppg here. (The Spurs normally allow 113.6 ppg on the road.) If and when they double-team Jokic, he'll continue to find the open man and the Nuggets will start connecting. They beat the Spurs by a score of 113-85 here a couple of weeks ago, hitting 36.4% of their shots from outside in that one. They're 11-5 ATS as home favorites of six points or less. I'm expecting a double-digit win.
|04-15-19||Nets v. 76ers -7.5||Top||123-145||Win||100||34 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Off their Game 1 loss, expect the 76ers to be all business in Game 2. While the Nets are still 20-22 on the road, the 76ers are 31-11 at home. Even off the Game 1 loss, the 76ers are 16-3 SU and 12-7 ATS when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. They're still 4-2 ATS their last six first round playoff games. The Nets have already accomplished what they wanted, stealing a game on the road. The 76ers have bounced back and earned a double-digit win off each of their last two defeats. Expect more of the same on Monday.
|04-14-19||Pistons +13 v. Bucks||Top||86-121||Loss||-105||25 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT. The Pistons closed out the reg. season by beating Memphis in their home finale and then hammering the Knicks, at MSG, in their road finale. That's noteworthy as they're 10-4 ATS off a road win and 4-1 ATS off a double-digit road win, a perfect 3-0 ATS when off a road win by 20 or more. The Bucks did indeed win all the regular season meetings. However, none of those lines were nearly as large as this one. Note that two of the games were decided by 10 or less. Note that the Pistons are also 7-3 ATS when facing a team which defeated them in three or more straight meetings. The Bucks are just 3-11-1 ATS the past 15 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. A look at Milwaukee's last seven games shows a 4-3 record with all four wins coming by 10 or less. I'm grabbing the points.
|04-13-19||Clippers v. Warriors -12.5||Top||104-121||Win||100||53 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs coasted through the regular season but I expect them to be all business now that the playoffs are here. While they rested regulars down the stretch, the Warriors are healthy. It took awhile but Cousins finally got rolling towards the end of the season. Adding him to the mix, to go along with Curry, Durant, Thompson, Green and co. give them an element - a center who can contribute offensively - that they never really had before. Looking back over the years finds that the Warriors are 27-10 ATS in the first round of the playoffs and 13-7-1 ATS in the first game of a playoff series. The Warriors beat the Clippers by 27 points less than a week ago. I'm expecting them to start the series with another convincing victory.
|04-07-19||Nuggets v. Blazers -3||Top||108-115||Win||100||13 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND. These teams just met at Denver a couple of days ago. The Nuggets won that one, which clinched the division title for them. That was a pretty huge accomplishment for them and should have them in letdown mode here. The fact that Jokic (and potentially others) are getting the night off is huge. Murray and/or Millsap may also get the night off. Note that those three players had a combined 70 points and 24 boards on Friday. Unlike the Nuggets, the Blazers still need wins, in order to help secure homecourt advantage. The revenge-minded Blazers are 4-1 ATS their last five, when off a division road loss. Expect them to get some payback tonight.
|03-27-19||Wizards v. Suns +2||Top||124-121||Loss||-110||16 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHOENIX. The Wizards won a wild 149-146 affair at Washington in late December. Schedule and venue in their favor, I expect the Suns to return the favor tonight. While the Wizards are off a loss at LA last night, the Suns had the day off. While the Suns got blown out last time out, they're still a healthy 8-4 ATS their last 12 games. The Wizards have now dropped five straight, failing to cover in four of those. With last night's loss, the Wizards are now 9-21-1 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater, 3-9-1 ATS (1-12 SU!) when playing a road game with an O/U line of 230 or more. They're also just 3-7 ATS as road favorites. Expect the Suns to bounce back, improving to 3-1 ATS when off a blowout loss of 30 or more points.
|03-26-19||Magic v. Heat -5.5||Top||104-99||Loss||-110||23 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI. The Magic won the first two meetings, the Heat taking the third. Schedule and venue in their favor, I expect the Heat to also take this one. While the Magic are off a home win vs the 76ers last night, the Heat are well-rested. The last time that the Magic played on the road, after playing the previous day, they lost by 14, at Cleveland. Note that the Heat are 7-4-1 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Heat, who knocked off Washington as a slight underdog last time out, have won four of five overall and nine of their past 12. They're also 12-4-1 ATS when off an 'upset' win. While the Magic deserve some credit for staying in the playoff race, expect the Heat to deliver a serious blow to their chances this evening, providing us the cover along the way.
|03-18-19||Pistons v. Cavs +6.5||Top||119-126||Win||100||13 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND (10* BEST BET). The Cavs are playing with "triple-revenge" in this one, having lost each of this season's three meetings. Earlier this month, the Pistons embarrassed them here. That should help provide them with some added motivation for this one. With the schedule in their favor, I expect them to get some payback here. While the Cavs had Sunday off, the Pistons are off a hard fought win vs. the Raptors. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they were destroyed by a 103-7 margin. Including that result, they're just 15-26 SU the past 2+ seasons, when playing the second of b2b games. While the Pistons have been solid at home, they're just 13-20 on the road. The Cavs are 3-2 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 4-2 ATS when attempting to avenge two or more double-digit losses. They're also 8-5-2 ATS when attempting to avenge a double-digit home loss. Grab the points.
|03-12-19||Cavs v. 76ers -14||Top||99-106||Loss||-105||10 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* VIOLATOR). The Cavs scored a major upset over the Raptors last night. On the road, playing their second game in two days, expect them to get blown out this evening. While the big points may seem tempting, consider that Cleveland is just 4-9-1 ATS (2-12 SU) as a road underdog of greater than 12 points. One of those wins came here back in November. The 76ers were laying -13 and lost outright. They've already avenged that loss by crushing the Cavs at Cleveland. However, they still haven't forgotten and they aren't about to take them lightly again. Sure, Butler is getting the night off. However, this team is stacked without him. Off b2b road losses, the 76ers bounced back with a 17-point home win over the Pacers. Note that they're 9-4 ATS after having lost two of their previous three. Schedule, talent and venue in their favor, expect nothing less than a destruction.
|03-11-19||Hornets +9 v. Rockets||Top||106-118||Loss||-113||12 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* BEST BET). The schedule favors the visitors in this one. While the Hornets had Sunday off, the Rockets were busy eking out a win, at Dallas. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they won by only three points, as a -9 point favorite. That also happened to be as situation where they were playing a home game, after playing a road game the previous day. Note that the Rockets are only 11-14-1 ATS against Eastern Conf. teams including 1-6-1 ATS against teams from the Southeast. While they know winning here won't be easy, the Hornets also know that they desperately need victories. Expect their best effort tonight, en route to AT LEAST an ATS win.
|03-10-19||Suns v. Warriors -17||Top||115-111||Loss||-109||11 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* PERS FAV). While this line may seem high to some, consider that the Warriors were laying -17 points in the last meeting and that was at Phoenix. The Suns, 13-19 ATS a road underdog, have just one win in 10 tries, when playing the second of b2b games. While they were playing Portland tough last night, the champs were resting. Note that the Suns are just 3-9 ATS when the O/U line was 230 or greater, 1-3 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 230 or more. Going back a bit further, they're just 1-7-1 ATS (1-8 SU) their past nine in that situation. They just don't have the firepower to keep up with a high-scoring team for an entire game, particularly on the road. The Warriors are 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) as home favorites of greater than a dozen points. They won by 20 in the earlier meeting here and I expect them to win by at least that many again tonight.
|03-08-19||Wizards v. Hornets -4.5||Top||111-112||Loss||-110||26 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* ANNIHILATOR). This is essentially a must win game for the Hornets. They've dropped two straight and have fallen out of the top eight. In other words, if the playoffs started today, they wouldn't be playing. Unlike the Wizards, who are two games further behind and are facing even more improbable odds, the Hornets still have a glimmer of hope of getting back in it. They absolutely need to win here though, as their next four games are on the road, one of those coming against these very same Wizards. I expect them to rise to the occasion and for them to deliver their best effort. While the Wizards are a dismal 9-25 (9-24-1 ATS!) on the road, the Hornets are a respectable 20-14 at home. The home team has already won and covered both meetings in the season series, the Hornets winning by 13 here at Charlotte. More of the same Friday.
|03-05-19||Blazers v. Grizzlies +5.5||Top||111-120||Win||100||11 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on MEMPHIS (10* BEST BET). I believe that the Grizzlies are catching the Blazers at the right time. True, Portland has been red hot. However, this will mark the final game of a 7-game road trip. With a huge divisional showdown vs. OKC, a team they are currently tied with, I believe it will be easy for the Blazers to look ahead to the return trip home. The home team has won and covered both meetings in the season series. Including their victory here at Memphis on 12/12, the Grizzlies are 9-4 ATS against Northwest division opponents. The Grizzlies have won two of their last four and the two losses came by just two and four points. Expect them to be at their best here.
|03-04-19||Clippers v. Lakers -4||Top||113-105||Loss||-109||15 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on the LA LAKERS (10* PERS FAV). Time is running out for the Lakers. They've lost four of five and desperately need a win here. I expect them to respond with their best effort. The Clippers have been excellent as favorites and covered in that role again yesterday. However, they are just 14-19 ATS as underdogs. Despite their overall problems, the Lakers remain a solid 9-3 ATS against divisional opponents. After losing to the lowly Suns last time out, note that the Lakers are 2-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a home loss against a divisional opponent, when favored by six or more. Expect them to play with desperation and improve on those stats here.
|03-03-19||Blazers v. Hornets +3||Top||118-108||Loss||-110||18 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* GAME OF WEEK). Tough spot for the West Coast based Blazers. They're off a close road loss at Toronto - they're already 0-2 SU/ATS when off a road loss by three of fewer points - and playing an early game, after having been on the road for an extended period. The Hornets are 3-1-1 ATS in five tries as a home underdog of six or fewer points. They're going to be motivated to avenge a 30+ point blowout loss at Portland. They're 10-4-1 ATS after having lost three of their previous four and I expect AT LEAST another cover on Sunday afternoon.
|03-02-19||Pelicans v. Nuggets -13||Top||120-112||Loss||-100||12 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* PERS FAV). Without Davis in the lineup, the Pelicans are going to really struggle at this difficult venue. The Nuggets hit the road after this. Off a loss against Utah last time out, they're going to be highly motivated to pick up a big win before the trip. While the Nuggets' number may seem big, note that they're a perfect 9-0 SU, covering the spread in seven of those, the past nine times that they were favorites if -12.5 or more points. The Nuggets won by 15, 16, 32 and 16 the past four times that they were a host of the Pelicans. Expect another blowout.
|03-01-19||Blazers v. Raptors -5||Top||117-119||Loss||-105||28 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on TORONTO (10* MAIN EVENT). The Blazers have been on a nice roll but I expect it to come to an end this evening. The revenge-minded Raptors have more home wins (26) than any other team in the entire Eastern Conference. By comparison, even with their recent success away from Portland, the Blazers are still just 14-15 on the road. Here, the Blazers are nearing the end of a lengthy road trip and this will mark the ninth consecutive game in which they played at a different venue from their previous game. The Raptors were laying a similar number of points for last year's game here yet won in a blowout, 130-105. The Raptors are healthy, rested and they get tomorrow off. They're off a blowout of Boston and I expect them to continue their very strong homecourt play this evening.
|02-27-19||Pistons v. Spurs -4.5||Top||93-105||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
I’m playing on the SAN ANTONIO SPURS (10* PERS FAV). Detroit comes in having won three straight. The Pistons though have faced three Eastern conference opponents in the Pacers, Heat and Hawks. With the shift to the West Coast to face this desperate non-conference opponent, I believe the visitors have a typical “letdown” here. San Antonio comes in desperate after three straight losses to the Nets, Knicks and the Raptors to conclude an ugly annual Rodeo Road trip. San Antonio is struggling to find an identity still, but it’s now or never for the proud organization this season (note that the Spurs are 10-2 ATS this year as a home favorite of six points or less.) The situation and the trends are both working in favor of San Antonio in my opinion. Lay the points, Spurs roll.
|02-26-19||Thunder +3.5 v. Nuggets||Top||112-121||Loss||-110||27 h 54 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Oklahoma City Thunder (3* MAIN EVENT). Division battles are always the most important. The Thunder will be eager to return to form here after they were caught looking ahead to this one in their 119-116 home loss to the Kings on Saturday. The Nuggets come in off a 123-96 win over the Clippers on Sunday. Note though that the Thunder play with the added incentive of revenge today after dropping both previous meetings with the Nuggets this year. Note as well that OKC is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog this season and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 revenging a loss vs. an opponent. The Nuggets have been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this years, but note that they’re still just 3-5 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite. In a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points.
|02-25-19||Pacers v. Pistons -2.5||Top||109-113||Win||100||26 h 34 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Detroit Pistons (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). The Pacers come in off a 119-112 road win over Washington, while the Pistons posted a 119-96 road win over the Heat on Saturday. Detroit plays with revenge today though after the Pacers took the first matchup this year, 125-88 at home back on December 28th. With a chance to avenge that pathetic effort and to build off their latest victory, I’m expecting the Pistons to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Both teams have been red hot of late, but Detroit has the home floor advantage, and the revenge factor both clearly working in its favor today. I’ll also point out that the Pacers are just 7-9 ATS as a road dog this year, while the Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a blowout win by 15 points or more. Lay the points, Detroit rolls.
|02-24-19||Magic +9.5 v. Raptors||Top||113-98||Win||100||22 h 7 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Orlando Magic (10* ANNIHILATOR). Toronto’s won seven in a row. The Raptors are playing at an extremely high level, but with the Celtics coming to town on Tuesday, there’s no question that this sets up as a look ahead spot for the home side. The Magic actually destroyed the Raptors 116-87 on December 28th and they come to town looking to get back to their winning ways after their five game win streak was snapped in a tight 110-109 loss to the Bulls last time out. With a game at the Knicks up next, the visitors can also put their full attention to this much more high-profile contest this evening. Note that Orlando is 5-1 ATS already this year after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games, while Toronto is just 3-5 ATS trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points, Magic roll.
|02-23-19||Blazers v. 76ers -2||Top||130-115||Loss||-110||18 h 50 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Philadelphia 76ers (10* BREAKFAST CLUB). Portland came out of the All Star break and posted an impressive 113-99 road win over Brooklyn, but I think it’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue. The home side will be out to push the pace after a tougher than expected 106-102 home win over Miami on Thursday. The home side also plays with the added incentive of revenge this afternoon after falling 129-95 in the Pacific Northwest back on December 30th. Both teams can score and neither plays very hard on the defensive end, but I still think that the visitors are getting far too much respect in this spot. Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 following an ATS loss, while Portland is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. teams with winning home records. Lay the points, 76ers roll.
|02-22-19||Pistons v. Hawks +3.5||Top||125-122||Win||100||23 h 14 m||Show|
I’m playing on (10*) the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks lost to the Knicks in their final game before the break, while the Pistons won four of their final five. Detroit though lost its finale to the Pistons and I think it’ll come out “flat” here to open the second half as well. Both teams are hungry and for the most part both are rested. The advantage today for Atlanta comes via “the home floor,” and also the fact that Detroit is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine when playing with three or more days rest, while Atlanta is 8-2 ATS in its last ten off an upset loss by 15 points or more as the favorite. Grab the points, Hawks roll.
|02-21-19||Kings v. Warriors -11.5||Top||123-125||Loss||-109||27 h 54 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Golden State Warriors (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE). The Warriors dominated down the stretch, but they got blown out 129-107 on the road in Portland in their final game before the break, clearly getting caught looking ahead to the time off (starters were also rested.) Sacramento has been a “surprise” this year and it still has a chance at making the playoffs. The future is bright for the Kings, but the fact remains that they average 113.4 PPG, while allowing 114.6. Golden State on the other hand averages 118.8 PPG and it allows 111.7. The Kings are also only 8-13 ATS as a road underdog this season, while the Warriors are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 when playing with three or more days rest. Expect the defending champs to send a message to the rest of the league to open the second half. Lay the points, Warriors roll.
|02-14-19||Thunder v. Pelicans +3.5||Top||122-131||Win||100||28 h 56 m||Show|
I’m playing on the New Orleans Pelicans (10* GAME OF THE MONTH). OKC enters off a 120-111 home win over Portland, while New Orleans comes in off a humbling 118-88 loss at home to Orlando. This is a revenge game of sort for the Pelicans as well, as the Thunder have taken two of three in the season series, including the latest matchup 122-116 back on January 24th. The Thunder come in on top form having won four straight, but with the All Star game up next and with Paul George and Russell Westbrook both headed to the festivities, I think the visitors get caught “looking ahead” to the much needed time off. The Pelicans of course are in a period of transition with star Anthony Davis having already decided to leave the team after the season is done. Davis had just 3 points in his team’s loss last time out, but I expect the big man to bounce back and play like a professional here. The 3 points were the fewest points he’s put up in his career (when playing a minimum of 21 minutes) and I believe he’ll take that personally. I expect the visitors to “check out” of this one early and for the home side to play with some determination after getting “shellacked” so badly last time out. Grab the points, Pelicans roll.
|02-13-19||Kings v. Nuggets -7.5||Top||118-120||Loss||-110||27 h 52 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Denver Nuggets (10* PERSONAL FAVORITE) How motivated are these teams to win their final game before the All Star break? In my opinion, I think this one mean a lot “more” to the home side. The Kings have been playing great of late having won five of their last six. But would anyone fault Sacramento for finally having a letdown here before the break? The Nuggets though are in a fight still for top spot in the West and I can’t see them taking the foot off the gas quite yet after winning seven of their last ten. Sacramento is also just 2-8 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 4-10 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with winning records. I think the home side keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, Nuggets roll.
|02-11-19||Nets +10.5 v. Raptors||Top||125-127||Win||100||25 h 12 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Nets (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). Outright upset? Probably not. But I do think that the sliding Nets will be playing with extreme determination tonight. Brooklyn comes to town focused after a humbling 125-106 home loss to the Bulls on Friday, while Toronto enters off a more difficult than expected 104-99 road win over the Knicks. These teams have split two games so far this year. But after dropping five of their last six, I think that the Nets are clearly the more desperate team in this matchup, as the Raptors enter having won four straight. Additionally note that the Nets are a near-perfect 6-1 ATS this season when playing with two days rest, while the Raptors are just 13-14 ATS at home and just 2-10 ATS after covering three of its last four vs. the spread. Grab the points, Nets roll.
|02-10-19||Lakers +7 v. 76ers||Top||120-143||Loss||-100||21 h 41 m||Show|
I’m playing on the LA Lakers (10* BEST BET) Clearly the outright win isn’t out of the question here, but in what I expect to be a very competitive battle, I’m going to grab the points. The Lakers come off perhaps a season defining 129-128 road win in Boston on Thursday and I think they carry that momentum over here. The 76ers come in off a 117-110 home win over Denver. The Lakers play with revenge here though after Philadelphia won 121-105 in LA back on January 29th. The Lakers finally have LBJ back at 100% health and he posted a triple-double in the win over the C’s. While the 76ers are firmly entrenched as one of the top teams in the East, the Lakers can ill afford to take the foot off the gas right now as they’re still 1.5 games back of the Clippers for the final playoff spot. This one simply means more to James and company and I believe that fact will be the difference maker here. Additionally note LA is 9-5 ATS this season as a road dog, while the 76ers are only 19-20 ATS as the favorite this year. Grab the points, Lakers roll.
|02-09-19||Hornets v. Hawks +2.5||Top||129-120||Loss||-100||25 h 37 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Hawks (10* BEST BET) Clearly the outright win isn’t out of the question here, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points. The Hornets come in off a 99-93 road loss in Dallas, while Atlanta fell 119-101 to Toronto in its most recent action. This is a revenge game for the Hawks, as Charlotte has taken two of three in the season series this year, including a 108-94 win at home in the most recent on November 28th. Both teams comes in hungry, but I think that the home floor will be the difference for this improving Hawks team. And note as well that Charlotte is only 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while ATL is 6-1 ATS in its last seven off a home loss of ten points or more. Grab the points, Hawks roll.
|02-08-19||Bulls +8.5 v. Nets||Top||125-106||Win||100||24 h 6 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls (10* VIOLATOR) The Bulls came up short in their 125-120 home loss to New Orleans last time out, but I think they can come in under the radar here and keep this one competitive vs. the complacent Nets, who pulled away for a satisfying 135-130 home victory over the Nuggets. Chicago plays with revenge as well. In fact the Bulls have lost six straight in this series, including a 122-117 road loss on January 29th. Note that Chicago did make a good pick up at the trade deadline, moving Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker to Washington for Otto Porter Jr. The Nets are comfortably in eighth spot in the East, but note that they’re just 2-5 ATS in their last seven after allowing 130 points or more. Chicago on the other hand has responded well in this spot, going 9-4 ATS in its last 13 after a loss by six points or less. I think the hungrier team keeps this one competitive late. Grab the points, Bulls roll.
|02-07-19||Grizzlies v. Thunder -14||Top||95-117||Win||100||12 h 41 m||Show|
I’m playing on the OKC Thunder (10* PERS FAV). I’m expecting a massive blowout here. The Grizz come to town off a highly satisfying 108-106 home win over the Wolves, while OKC pulled away for a 132-122 home win over Orlando on Tuesday. These teams haven’t played yet this year, but OKC has won seven straight in the series. The Grizz may have beaten bottom feeders New York and Memphis, but their achilles heels has been their play on the road where they’re just 11-16-1 ATS. The Grizz average only 100.4 PPG, while allowing 103.4. OKC is 14-11 ATS at home and it averages 115.2 PPG, while allowing 110. Memphis is still working on trying to trade Mike Conley and Marc Gasol and I believe it’s in well over its head here facing Russell Westbrook on his home floor, as he enters having posted seven straight triple-doubles. This line could/should be higher. Lay the points, Thunder roll.
|02-06-19||Pelicans v. Bulls||Top||125-120||Loss||-115||27 h 21 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Chicago Bulls (10* VIOLATOR) I think the Bulls get the job done on their home floor. The Pelicans played bravely without Anthony Davis in the line-up on Monday vs. the Pacers, but they came up short in the 109-107 setback. The Bulls enter off a 125-118 road loss in Charlotte, but they play with “triple revenge” here after losing three straight in the series, including the first one this season 107-98 on the road on November 7th. The Pelicans have now lost three straight and six of their last seven. New Orleans is just 13-15-1 ATS on the road. Chicago is only 10-15 ATS at home this year, but they’re a red hot 11-4 ATS in their last 15 when playing with three or more days rest. The Pelicans in contrast are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest. The stage is set for a home side blowout. Bulls roll.
|02-05-19||Celtics -12 v. Cavs||Top||103-96||Loss||-105||27 h 34 m||Show|
I’m playing on the Boston CELTICS (10* GAME OF WEEK) Kyrie Irving won’t be in the line-up when Boston Celtics travel to Cleveland to take on the rebuilding Cavaliers on Tuesday, but I don’t think it’ll hardly matter. Cleveland of course is still playing without Kevin Love, it also recently traded Rodney Hood to Portland for future draft picks. Cleveland has two nights off before a game in the Nation’s capital on Friday night, so a possible “look ahead” isn’t out of the question for the home side either. Boston has won four straight, but I don’t think it’ll be taking anything for granted here with much more difficult upcoming games vs. the Lakers, Clippers and 76ers. Additionally note that Boston is 12-5 ATS already this year after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games, while the Cavs are only 9-13 ATS as a home underdog this season. Lay the points, Celtics roll.
|02-04-19||Hawks v. Wizards -6||Top||137-129||Loss||-105||28 h 37 m||Show|
10* play on the Washington Wizards. I think the Hawks will stumble in the Nation’s capital tonight. The Hawks come in off a highly satisfying 118-112 win over Phoenix on Saturday, while the Wizards enter off a humbling 131-115 loss at home to Milwaukee. If recent history is anything to go by though, then the Wizards have to be loving their chances for a bounce back performance tonight as they’ve already taken two of three in this season series, including a convincing 114-98 home win in the most recent matchup at the beginning of the year. Atlanta is already 3-3 on this seven game road trip, a record which it couldn’t have dreamed of obtaining before the trek started. I think the visitors come in very complacent here as they look ahead to time off and a long home stretch. The Wizards are still only 2.5 games back of Miami for a playoff spot and after getting trounced by the Bucks last time out, I believe they come in focused and take advantage of this spot. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a double-digit loss at home, while the Hawks 0-5 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Lay the points, Washington rolls.
|02-02-19||Hawks v. Suns -2||Top||118-112||Loss||-115||29 h 44 m||Show|
10* PERSONAL FAVORITE Phoenix Suns. It’s been a miserable season for Phoenix, it comes in at 11-42 overall and on a nine games overall losing streak. No excuses for the Suns here though as they’ll look to take advantage of the 16-34 Hawks. ATL is just 8-21 on the road and it’s in action on Friday night in Utah as well. And with one night off before a divisional contest in the nation’s capital on Monday, it also sets up as a trap/look-ahead for the visitors. Phoenix is all about earning that No. 1 pick in the lottery next year, but it’s going to win a few more games this season. And this is one of them. Lay the points, Suns finally roll to a convincing victory in front of the home town crowd.
|02-01-19||Hawks v. Jazz -11.5||Top||112-128||Win||100||29 h 32 m||Show|
I’m playing on the JAZZ (10* PERS FAV) The Hawks have for the most part struggled this year, especially on the road. Most recently they got smoked 135-113 in Sacramento on Wednesday. Utah enters off a poor effort as well, falling 132-105 on the road in Portland on Wednesday, but I think the Jazz can bounce back in big fashion in friendly confines. These teams played twice last year and the Hawks somehow inexplicably took both. Atlanta averages 110.2 points and it allows 117.9. The Jazz on the other hand average 108.6 PPG and they allow 105.7. Utah is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 following a SU loss as well. Lay the points, Jazz roll.
|01-31-19||Mavs v. Pistons -2.5||Top||89-93||Win||100||24 h 9 m||Show|
Dallas has admittedly looked a lot better this year than last (10* END OF MONTH BLOWOUT). It’s been competitive thanks in large part to the play of dynamic rookie Luca Doncic. The Mavs though had the foot on the gas from the opening tip until the final horn in their 114-90 win over the Knicks in New York just last night and I think they’ll be tired coming to the Motor City. Detroit’s hungry to avoid a three-game slide. It’s also out to avenge a loss to Dallas just last week. Previous to their win over the Knicks that Mavs had lost four of six and overall the road hasn’t been kind to Dallas. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS the last five in this series and that strong trend carries over. Lay the points, Pistons roll.
|01-29-19||Bucks v. Pistons +6.5||Top||115-105||Loss||-100||12 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pistons are going to be motivated to avoid the season sweep. I believe that they're catching the Bucks at the right time. Milwaukee had been hot but got cooled off its last game. Though the Bucks have been tough off a road loss, they've got a revenge game against Toronto on deck and I feel it may be easy to look past Detroit. That's going to prove costly though as the Pistons have Drummond back now and he's got a game under his belt. That makes them a far stronger team, as the combination of Griffin and Drummond is formidable. The Pistons are back home, after three straight on the road. While they're 4-4 SU their last eight overall, three of the four losses came by six or less. They're 16-7-1 ATS their last 24, off three straight on the road and 3-0 ATS their last three when listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range. Expect a big effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover this evening.
|01-28-19||Warriors v. Pacers +8.5||Top||132-100||Loss||-110||25 h 1 m||Show|
I'm playing on INDIANA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Warriors have been on an impressive run. They're at the end of a 5-game road trip here though; off their big win at Boston and with big home games against the likes of Philadelphia, LA and San Antonio on deck, it should be easy to suffer a slight letdown against an Indiana team missing Oladipo. That'll prove costly though as the Pacers are still capable and still playing hard. They're especially tough to beat here at Indiana. Indeed, they're 12-2 here since the start of December, 3-0 their last three. Their 18-6 home record is actually better than the Warriors' 17-8 road mark. With the Pacers, who beat the Warriors both meetings last season, at 17-5 ATS the last 22 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 6.5 to 12 range, I'm grabbing the points.
|01-26-19||76ers v. Nuggets -8.5||Top||110-126||Win||100||13 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* GAME OF MONTH). I successfully played against the Nuggets recently. However, that was at Utah. Now, they're playing at home, where they've been nearly unbeatable. They already bounced back from the Utah loss by returning home and crusing the Suns by 37 points last night. Note that the Nuggets are 6-1 SU, when playing the second of b2b game and that last night's game was not exactly taxing. The Nuggets are now 21-4 here, 17-8 against the number. Thats the best home record in the West. The 76'ers, meanwhile, are 11-12 on the road. They've had Embid for most of those games, too. He's out tonight though. Needless to say, thats a big loss. Making matters worse, Butler saw a specialist for his wrist in LA yesterday and is considered doubtful, as I write this. The 76ers swept the Nuggets last season. Catching them short-handed, expect the Nuggets to get some payback with a double-digit win tonight.
|01-25-19||Wizards v. Magic -4||Top||95-91||Loss||-105||11 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on ORLANDO (3* VIOLATOR). The Wizards eked out a cover against the Warriors last night, losing by eight as a 9-point dog. After hosting the champs, don't be surprised when they experience a letdown, for a road game against the Magic the next night. While the Wizards were fighting hard, the Magic had yesterday off. The home team has already taken both meetings, the Magic winning by nine here at Orlando. (The Magic also won the previous game here, last spring, by nine.) While the Magic are 3-4 their last seven, they've been competitive in all four of the losses and they scored a minimum of 105 points in all seven of those games. Schedule in their favor, expect them to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off five or more consecutive games where they scored 105 or more points.
|01-23-19||Nuggets v. Jazz -3||Top||108-114||Win||100||30 h 19 m||Show|
I'm playing on UTAH (10* MAIN EVENT). Homecourt always means a lot to both of these teams and it always means a lot when they face each other. Including a 103-88 win on Nov. 3rd, the Nuggets are a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they hosted the Jazz. Conversely, with a 106-77 destruction a few weeks later, on 11/28, the Jazz are a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that the hosted the Nuggets. All seven wins came by a minimum of four points. This season, the Nuggets are a dominating 20-4 at home but a modest 11-10 on the road. The Jazz are 13-13 on the road but 13-9 at home. Utah arguably needs this game more. Expect a huge effort from the Jazz and homecourt again ultimately proving the difference.
|01-22-19||Wolves -5 v. Suns||Top||118-91||Win||100||11 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Suns gave the T-Wolves all they could handle a couple of days ago, at Minnesota. The Wolves still won though and now we're getting them at a far lower line, due to the venue. However, with a 7-17 record here, homecourt doesn't mean much to the Suns though. The Wolves are still fighting for a playoff spot while the Suns are destined for the lottery. They're expected to be without Ayton (currently doubtful) here, made worse by the possible (likely?) absence of Richaun Homels, which is going to mean Towns is destined for a field day. Expect an inspired effort from the Wolves, as they improve to 7-1 ATS, after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their previous six games.
|01-21-19||Warriors -11 v. Lakers||Top||130-111||Win||100||15 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The champs have a score to settle. You may recall that the Lakers embarrassed them on National TV on Christmas Day, at Oracle. Payback is indeed in order. While the Warriors, who now have Cousins in the lineup, are healthy, the Lakers are still without Lebron. The Lakers may still be feeling the effects off a tough 4-point OT loss at Houston, on Saturday. Meanwhile, off seven straight wins, the Warriors come in with plenty of momentum. Expect them to be all business here, avenging the earlier loss in blowout fashion.
|01-20-19||Suns v. Wolves -10||Top||114-116||Loss||-113||25 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played against the Suns yesterday and this is an excellent spot to go against them once again. While the Suns were busy getting blown out at Charlotte, the Wolves had yesterday off. They're going to be in an angry mood, too. Not only did they lose by eight at Phoenix last month but they're off b2b losses, a blowout loss followed by a close one. The Wolves are 2-0 SU/ATS when off a home loss off three or less, 7-4 ATS their last 11 in that situation. They're also 6-2 ATS after failing to cover in two or more consecutive games. These same two teams will face each other, at Phoenix, in two days. Knowing this to be the case, expect the rested, revenge-minded T-Wolves to take care of business in decisive fashion.
|01-19-19||Suns v. Hornets -6.5||Top||115-135||Win||100||23 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* VIOLATOR). After losing three straight, the Hornets have rebounded with b2b blowout wins. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into today's game. Note that the Hornets are 4-2 ATS as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range and also 4-2 ATS when off a win of 15 or more points. The Suns are 0-2 to start their road trip and they've got the front end of a home-and-home with Minnesota on deck tomorrow. After getting blown out, they lost by just three last time out. The close losses can often be even tougher to bounce back from; the Suns are just 2-5 ATS off a loss by six or less, 14-23 ATS in that situation the past 2+ seasons. Expect a blowout.
|01-18-19||Nets v. Magic +1||Top||117-115||Loss||-110||22 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* BEST BET). The Magic are playing well right now. Sure, they lost last time out. However, that was on the road and they took the Pistons to OT. Their last two home games, the Magic actually beaten the Rockets and Celtics. Going back further finds them at 4-0 SU/ATS their last four games here. Granted, the Nets are also playing well. In fact, they too, just defeated the Celtics and Rockets. Though they had yesterday off, that Houston win on Thursday may have taken an extra toll, a 145-142 OT thriller. An emotional and/or physical letdown could well be in order. Note that the Nets are only 2-5 SU/ATS off a win by three or less. They're also 2-7 ATS after having covered three of their previous four games. I think its important to note that these teams will meet in Brooklyn in less than a week. The Magic know this and know that they need to take care of business on their home floor. They've had excellent success against the Atlantic Division and it continues tonight.
|01-17-19||Kings v. Hornets -3||Top||95-114||Win||100||23 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* PERS FAV). These teams just faced each other, at Sacramento, on Saturday. The Kings won by seven. Not surprising, given that Charlotte is just 6-15 on the road. Playing on their home floor, where they're a far better 14-8, I expect the revenge-minded Hornets to get some payback on Thursday. Note that the Hornets are 6-2 ATS their past eight when attempting to avenge a 'same season' loss. Charlotte was laying -10.5 for last season's meeting here. Things have changed but not that much. Payback time!
|01-15-19||Thunder v. Hawks +9||Top||126-142||Win||100||13 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). While the Thunder have had a couple of days off, I feel that its going to be easy for them to look past the Hawks tonight. Note that OKC is just 4-6 ATS its last 10 as a road favorite in the -6.5 to -12 range. The Thunder are off a home-and-home split with the Spurs and they've got the Lakers on deck Thursday, a game which could mark Lebron's return. Looking past the Hawks will prove costly though, as Atlanta continues to play hard. The Hawks have quietly won four of their past six home games and only one of those two losses came by more than eight points. In fact, they even recently won a road game at Philadelphia. The Hawks had yesterday off and they don't play for a few days after this. Their full focus will be on the Thunder. The Hawks have scored 100 or more in six straight and 114 or more in each of their last two. They're 18-8 ATS the last 26 times that they'd scored 110 or more in b2b games and I expect AT LEAST another cover this evening.
|01-14-19||Hornets +8.5 v. Spurs||Top||108-93||Win||100||15 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Hornets are playing the final games of a road trip. Its been an unsuccessful trip and they're determined to close it with a victory. While that may or may not happen, I do expect their very best effort to lead to AT LEAST a cover. The Hornets have some extra motivation in that Tony Parker is returning "home." Additionally and perhaps more importantly, this is also Coach Borrego's first game against his former mentor, Popovich. While they had yesterday off, the Spurs may still be feeling the effects of Saturday's showdown at OKC. Note that the Spurs are just 1-3 ATS this season, as home favorites in the -6.5 to -12 range. Meanwhile, the Hornets are 6-2 ATS when having lost three of their previous four. In a game which figures to have some extra emotion, expect the Hornets to improve on those stats this evening.
|01-13-19||Blazers +4.5 v. Nuggets||Top||113-116||Win||100||25 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* BEST BET). The Nuggets won by a point when these teams met in late November, at Portland. At the time, the Nuggets were red hot, in the midst of a 7-game winning streak, while while Blazers were in the middle of a 1-6 skid. Things set up much differently this time. While the Nuggets have still been playing well, they're now in a tough scheduling spot, which was not the case for the earlier meeting. Denver played last night at Phoenix and will now be playing its third game in the past four days, their fifth game in the past seven. Meanwhile, the rested Blazers are now 6-1 their last seven, instead of 1-6, as was the case earlier. The Blazers are 12-6 ATS their last 18 in the revenge role and that includes a 2-0 ATS mark when attempting to avenge a loss of three or fewer points. Schedule in their favor, expect the Blazers to improve on those stats Sunday evening.
|01-10-19||Celtics v. Heat +1||Top||99-115||Win||100||27 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). Wednesday's game against the Pacers was a big one for the Celtics. Not only are the Pacers ahead of the Celtics in the overall Eastern Conference standings but the Pacers had also beaten the Celtics three straight times, most recently a 1-point game back in early November. While the Celtics were busy playing that 'big game,' the Heat had Wednesday off. The last time that the Celtics played the second of b2b games, they lost by nine, at Detroit. The Heat know that four of their next five come on the road, one of those road games coming at Boston. In other words, they better take care of business here. They've beaten the Celtics twice in a row. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to do so again Thursday.
|01-07-19||Spurs v. Pistons +3.5||Top||119-107||Loss||-109||21 h 14 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* BEST BET). The Pistons fought hard last game and were within a point in the closing seconds. Ultimately, they lost by five vs. the Jazz, failing to cover by a bucket. Even with that result, however, they're a healthy 6-3 ATS against Western Conference opponents. I expect them to improve on those stats here. True, the Spurs are off four straight wins, the last three of those coming at home. They've won just three of their past nine road games though and one of those victories came by a single point, at Chicago. Its also worth noting that the Spurs are just 4-8 ATS the past 12 times that they were coming off three or more consecutive home wins and just 9-20 ATS, during the same span, when off four consecutive victories overall. Overall, San Antonio is 17-5 at home but 6-12 on the road. With a 10-11 home record, the Pistons can get back to .500 here with a win. They were five point underdogs against the Spurs here last season yet won by 14 points. Don't be surprised by another upset tonight.
|01-06-19||Nets v. Bulls +2.5||Top||117-100||Loss||-110||9 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Nets won a close one here a few weeks ago, eking out a 3-point win. The Bulls are healthier now than they've been all season and thats translated to a 5-2 ATS mark their last seven. This afternoon's game provides a great opportunity to break through with an outright win. The Nets are banged-up themselves, missing the likes of LeVert, Crabbe and Hollis-Jefferson. After this game, the Bulls get a couple of days off before heading out on a West Coast road trip. They very nearly beat Indiana last time out and badly want a victory before hitting the road. Unlike the Bulls, the Nets have a big game tomorrow - the first of two, in a one week span, against the Celtics. That may make it easy to look past the Bulls. That'll prove costly though; the Bulls are 9-4 ATS off a home loss and 3-0 ATS off two or more consecutive home losses. Expect them to improve on those stats here.
|01-05-19||Jazz v. Pistons +2.5||Top||110-105||Loss||-105||8 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* BEST BET). Given the venue and schedule, I believe we're getting excellent value with the Pistons. While Detroit had the past couple of days off, the Jazz were busy beating Cleveland yesterday. Though that may not have been the most taxing game, the Jazz are still just 2-4 SU/ATS when playing the second of b2b games. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 6-2 ATS when playing with two day's rest, 18-11 ATS the past 2+ seasons. Even with last night's win, they're still only 11-12 on the road; the Pistons are 11-8 at home. The Pistons are 6-2 ATS against Western Conference teams, 40-26 ATS the past couple of seasons. Expect at least another cover.
|01-03-19||Rockets v. Warriors -8||Top||135-134||Loss||-106||14 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Even some diehard Warrior fans might be skeptical of laying this many points against Harden and the Rockets. Off b2b double-digit wins, I believe that the champs are finally back in the groove though. The calendar having flipped to 2019, they're going to use tonight's game to demonstrate that. The Rockets continue to be without Paul. Eric Gordon, who had contributed double-digits in scoring in his last seven straight games, 17 or more in his last five, normally logs heavy minutes in Paul's absence. However, he's out, too. Auston Rivers and James Ennis aren't likely to provide Harden with enough secondary scoring to keep up with Curry, Durant, Thompson and co. The Rockets won big when these teams met at Houston earlier. Expect the Warriors, who closed out the year by scoring 132 at Phoenix, to get some payback, improving to 5-0 ATS after scoring 130 or more in their previous game.
|12-31-18||Magic v. Hornets -7||Top||100-125||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHARLOTTE (10* PERS FAV). While the Hornets had yesterday off, the Magic are off a close, hard-fought win against Detroit. They're now playing their third game in four days. They've dropped all three road games, when having played the previous day. The Hornets, who hammered Orlando by 32 earlier in the season, lost a close one at Washington on Saturday, their third loss (SU and ATS) in the last four games. They're 8-2 ATS off a loss by six points or less, 4-0 ATS after having dropped three of their last four. Note that the Hornets' recent losses have come on the road. They've won their last three at home by double-digits. Schedule in their favor, expect another one-sided win tonight.
|12-26-18||Suns v. Magic -4||Top||122-120||Loss||-110||27 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on ORLANDO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Suns have been on a nice ATS winning streak. However, I fully expect it to come to an end here. The Suns will be playing fifth straight on the road, their final road game of 2018 and final road game for quite some time. I feel that they could easily be thinking ahead to the return trip home. While they did have a couple of days off over Christmas, the triple-OT and b2b games on 12/22 and 12/23 may still catch up with the Suns here. Note that they're 12-20 ATS the past 32 times that they played with two day's rest in between games, 2-4 ATS in that situation this season. Off three straight lopsided losses, the Magic are going to be extremely hungry. The Magic already hammered the Suns at Phoenix and are 4-0 SU the last four in the series, all four wins coming by a minimum of six points. Expect them to bounce back with their best effort, improving to 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were off three consecutive double-digit losses.
|12-25-18||Lakers v. Warriors -8.5||Top||127-101||Loss||-115||24 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). The Warriors have been winning some close games of late, while failing to cover. That caused this line to come out in the single-digits. Make no mistake, the champs are still capable of laying down the hammer and winning games by double-digits. A Christmas Day visit from Lebron and the Lakers is the perfect opportunity to remind everyone of that fact. While Lebron is obviously still on top of his game, the Lakers, 8-14-1 ATS the past 23 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 230 or greater, don't have enough weapons to keep up. Not against the well-oiled machine which is the Warriors, finally back to health. While Durant did tweak an ankle last game, as of this writing, he's expected to be fine. (He typically dominates on Christmas, averaging 31.1 ppg.) Expect a "statement" win for the champs.
|12-23-18||Mavs v. Blazers -7||Top||118-121||Loss||-110||26 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* PERS FAV). These teams met at Dallas a few weeks ago. At the time, the Blazers were really struggling. The Mavs won 111-102. At the time, that result dropped the Blazers to 1-10 ATS (3-8 SU) over an 11-game stretch. However, they've since turned things around. Since the Dallas game, even counting a blowout loss vs. Utah last time out, they've gone 5-3 SU/ATS. Here, they catch the Mavs off a game vs. the defending champs and playing their second game in two days. The Mavs are 1-3 ATS when playing the second of b2b games, most recently losing by double-digits at Phoenix. The Blazers, meanwhile, are 10-4 ATS their last 14 in the revenge role, 6-2 ATS when avenging a road loss. The Blazers, who beat Dallas by nine the last meeting here, are also 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were off a double-digit divisional loss. Schedule in their favor, expect them to improve on those stats Sunday.
|12-22-18||Raptors v. 76ers -4.5||Top||101-126||Win||100||13 h 9 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* VIOLATOR). The Raptors have taken both this season's meetings. However, both of those were at Toronto. This evening, in addition to having the venue in their favor, the revenge-minded 76ers have the schedule working for them. The Raptors are off a win against Cleveland last night and are now playing their third game in the past four days. Making matters worse, Philly native Kyle Lowry is expected to be out again for the Raptors while start Kawaii Leonard is expected to rest. The 76'ers, meanwhile, have had the past two days off. They're 24-12 ATS in that situation, the past 2+ seasons. During that stretch, they're 37-24 ATS as home favorites, 18-12 ATS as home favorites of six or less. It all adds up to one thing. Payback time.
|12-20-18||Rockets v. Heat +3.5||Top||99-101||Win||100||13 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Rockets have admittedly been playing better of late, this is a tough spot for them. While the Heat are very well-rested, the Rockets are off a game last night vs. Washington and are now playing their third game in the past four days. They're 2-3 ATS in b2b situations this season and just 2-7 ATS when off a game vs. an Eastern Conf. team. With the exception of a win at Memphis, the Rockets' current winning streak has come at home. They're still 6-10 ATS on the road. The Heat have quietly been playing well themselves. They're 2-0 SU/ATS their last two and 9-3 ATS (7-5 SU) their last 12. Venue and schedule in their favor, expect them to improve to 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games.
|12-17-18||Kings v. Wolves -8||Top||105-132||Win||100||27 h 53 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). These teams have met twice so far this season. Both meetings were at Sacramento. The Kings won both by double-digits. This evening, however, the T-Wolves have homecourt on their side. They've also got the schedule working in their favor. While Minneota had Sunday off, the Kings were busy playing at Dallas. In addition to playing the second of b2b games, this will be the Kings' third game in the past four days. The last four times that the Kings played the second of b2b games? They went 0-4 SU/ATS. All four of those games resulted in double-digit losses, 107-97, 133-112, 132-112, 101-86. Expect more of the same here, a highly motivated Minnesota team pulling away for another double-digit win.
|12-14-18||Raptors v. Blazers +3.5||Top||122-128||Win||100||13 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (8* SHOCKER). Off a huge road win over the champs, I believe that the Raptors are going to be ripe for a letdown. Note that the Raptors are 5-9 ATS after scoring 110 or more in two more consecutive games. They'll be facing an angry and talented Portland team, one which hasn't lost a home game by more than four points all season. Not surprisingly, the Blazers are already 1-0 ATS as home underdogs (15-point win over the Bucks) this season; 11-7 ATS in that role the past couple of years. The Blazers haven't forgotten that the Raptors came in here and shut them down early last season, before blowing them out at Toronto. Its finally payback time!
|12-12-18||Raptors v. Warriors -6.5||Top||113-93||Loss||-108||13 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Raptors beat a short-handed (no Curry) Warriors team, at Toronto, in OT. The game had been billed as a Finals Preview and the some of the fans reacted as if they'd won a finals game. Now healthier, playing at home and with the schedule in their favor, expect the revenge-minded champions to get some payback. Leonard was the hero for the Raptors in the first game. However, he didnt play last night. If he does go tonight, he may be less than 100%. Either way, the Warriors are 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) the past eight times that they attempted to avenge a loss of three or fewer points and we can expect them to improve on those stats.
|12-10-18||Kings v. Bulls +2.5||Top||108-89||Loss||-110||28 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on CHICAGO (10* BEST BET). The Bulls got embarrassed by Boston on Saturday and they're going to be looking to bounce back with a much better effort. I believe that they're catching the Kings at the right time. Sacramento lost by double-digits at Indiana Saturday and will now be playing its third road game in the past four days. The Bulls have been dealing with injuries all year but they're slowly getting heathier. Prior to the Boston debacle, the Bulls' previous two home games resulted in an outright win against OKC and a 1-point loss against San Antonio. Expect their best effort to lead to at least another cover here.
|12-08-18||Nuggets v. Hawks +7.5||Top||98-106||Win||100||26 h 6 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Nuggets absolutely destroyed the Hawks, at Denver, a few weeks ago, a 45-point beatdown. At the time, the Hawks were in the middle of a road trip and had just lost tight games against the Lebron Lakers and the defending champion Warriors. Off those b2b close losses and weary from being thousands of miles from home, they were vulnerable. This time, its the Hawks which are at home. This time, its the Nuggets who have been on the road for some time. The Nuggets played last night at Charlotte and are now playing their third game in four days, the final leg of a 5-game road trip. Dating back to the 11/15 game against the Hawks, the Nuggets have not played in the same arena in consecutive games. Thats a lot of travel; after this they finally get a 4-game home stretch. The Hawks haven't forgotten the 11/15 loss. Schedule and venue in their favor, expect them to improve to 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 20 or more points.
|12-07-18||Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4.5||Top||107-103||Loss||-110||25 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played on the Grizzlies in their last game, a double-digit win over the Clippers on Wednesday. However, that was at Memphis, where they've been playing well all year. They're now 8-3 at home. The road has been a different story, as they've been mediocre away from Memphis, most recently losing by eight. The home/road difference is even more pronounced for the Pelicans. They're only 3-10 on the road but an impressive 10-3 here at New Orleans. Last time out, they won by 26. While the Pelicans have tomorrow off, the Grizzlies will host Lebron and the Lakers tomorrow. It all adds up to another big home win for the Pelicans.
|12-05-18||Thunder v. Nets +7.5||Top||114-112||Win||100||28 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on BROOKLYN (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Thunder are off b2b2b blowout wins and are playing well. I expect the Nets to bring them back down to earth though. OKC's recent winning streak has created plenty of value at the betting window. Keep in mind that the Thunder are laying a bigger number here than they were at venues like Phoenix and Cleveland. Yet, the Nets have a better record than either the Suns or Cavs. Grab the generous points and expect the Nets to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover.
|12-03-18||Rockets v. Wolves +2||Top||91-103||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* BEST BET). True, the Rockets are off b2b blowout wins. However, lets not forget that they'd lost four in a row, before that. Also, its worth noting that they're only 13-21 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b double-digit victories. I expect homecourt to be the difference in this one. The T-Wolves are a profitable 14-6-1 ATS (16-5 SU) the last 21 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Look for them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats tonight.
|12-02-18||Jazz v. Heat +4||Top||100-102||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* BEST BET). While this is only their third consecutive road game, I believe that the Jazz will be getting a little road-weary. Thats because this marks the 13th consecutive time that they'll be playing at a different venue than they played their previous game at. Ten of those 13 (10 of L12) have come on the road. (The two home games during that stretch were immediately followed by a road game.) Either way, I expect them to have their hands full. Note that Utah is 0-4 ATS after having won three of its previous four. The Heat come in confident, off their minor upset of the Pelicans. They're 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were off an upset win as a home underodg. The Heat have defeated the Jazz three straight times, two of those wins coming by a single point. Expect them to take this down to the wire with a great shot at another upset.
|12-01-18||Nets v. Wizards -5||Top||88-102||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). Both teams played and lost yesterday. However, while the Wizards were getting blown out at Philly, the Nets double-OT loss was arguably far more painful and it should take a far bigger toll on them today. The Wizards are going to be in an angry mood. Not just from yesterday but also because the Nets upset them here a couple of weeks ago. Schedule in their favor, expect some serious payback today.
|11-29-18||Clippers v. Kings +3||Top||133-121||Loss||-110||25 h 30 m||Show|
I'm playing on SACRAMENTO (10* BEST BET). The Kings are off b2b losses, for the fourth time this season. However, they've been great in that situation (3-0 SU/ATS) and they've got both the venue and the schedule in their favor. While the Kings, 6-2-1 ATS their last nine when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, are well-rested, the Clippers are off a win over Phoenix last night. Though they did pull away for a convincing victory, the score was tied at half. So, stars Harris and Gallinari were still forced to see relatively heavy (33 + 35) minutes. The Kings began the season with b2b defeats. They responded with a double-digit win (as a double-digit dog) over the Thunder. At the beginning of this month, the Kings again lost b2b games. They answered with a double-digit win over the T-Wolves, again when listed as an underdog. In the middle of this month, they lost b2b games for a third time. Once again, they faced OKC. Once again, they responded with an outright win. Expect their best effort to lead to at least another cover tonight.
|11-26-18||Magic v. Warriors -8||Top||110-116||Loss||-110||29 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). While they're still dealing with some injuries, here's a great spot for the champs to "get healthy." While the Warriors had yesterday off, the Magic were busy playing Lebron and the Lakers, at LA. Playing their third in four days, the first of which was in the high altitude of Denver, expect fatigue to be a factor for the Magic, the Magic happy to lay down the hammer for a convincing win and cover.
|11-25-18||Clippers v. Blazers -4||Top||104-100||Loss||-110||12 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on PORTLAND (10* PERS FAV). Off b2b losses, the Blazers are going to be a determined team this evening. With an 11-point win against them a few weeks ago, the Blazers have now beaten the Clippers four straight times. All four victories came by a minimum of eight points. The Blazers are 7-3 ATS on the season, when laying points. The Clippers, on the other hand, are now 3-6 ATS when getting points. They're also just 2-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. Blazers roll.
|11-24-18||Pelicans v. Wizards +2||Top||114-124||Win||100||26 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). Both teams played Friday. So, each will be playing the second of b2b games. However, New Orleans also played Wednesday, while Washington did not. That means that the Pelicans are playing their third game in four days, while the same cannot be said of the Wizards. Knowing that they'll face these same Pelicans, at New Orleans, on Wednesday, expect the Wizards to "hold serve" by protecting their home court.
|11-21-18||Pelicans v. 76ers -3.5||Top||120-121||Loss||-110||24 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* PERS FAV). The home team won both meetings last season. The Pelicans won by seven at New Orleans. Howver, the 76ers hammered them by a 100-82 margin in the game here at Philadelphia. Homecourt has been huge from both these teams again so far this season. The 76ers are a poor 3-7 on the road but a perfect 9-0 here at Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are 8-1 at New Orleans but just 2-6 at home. With an O/U line in the high 230s, this is expected to be a high-scoring game. That suits the 76ers just fine. They're 29-13 ATS the past 42 times that they played a game with an O/U line of 220 or greater. During that same span, they're also 52-27-1 ATS when facing an opponent which averages 106 or more points. Expect the tempo and venue to lead to another win and cover for the new look 76ers.
|11-19-18||Clippers v. Hawks +7||Top||127-119||Loss||-110||28 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* BEST BET). While they haven't been getting any "W's" to show for it, the Hawks are fighting very hard. They've covered the spread in three of their last four. The Hawks played the Clippers tough last time they met, LA winning by a single point. I expect them to again give the Clippers all they can handle. While both teams had Sunday off, the Hawks also have tomorrow (Tuesday) off. The Clippers, on the other hand, have a rematch against Washington tomorrow. The Clippers are 3-4 on the road overall and that includes a 1-4 SU/ATS mark when playing on the road when the O/U was 220 or greater. Grab the points.
|11-16-18||Jazz v. 76ers -2.5||Top||107-113||Win||100||28 h 52 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Homecourt has been huge for the 76ers. Indeed, they're an ugly 2-7 on the road but a perfect 7-0 here at Philadelphia. I fully expect them to keep that perfect record in tact for awhile yet. (After this, their next home games are against Phoenix, New Orleans, Cleveland and NY - all very winnable games.) The first game with Jimmy Butler in the lineup didn't go so well, as the 76ers blew a 16-point lead and lost at Orlando. His acquisition makes this a very dangerous team, however, with three elite players. They're going to be highly motivated to get the first win of the "new era." Sure, the Jazz are going to also be motivated to bounce back off their embarrassing 50-pt loss. However, that loss revealed some issues and I don't think the Jazz match up well against the new look 76ers. Note that Philly swept the season series last year, including a 107-86 blowout win in the game here. They were laying -6 for that one. Despite the perfect home record and arguably a superior team, we're getting them at a lower line here. I feel thats offering excellent value and am expecting another big win.