|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||Top||13-3||Loss||-115||200 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* GAME OF YEAR). Admittedly, the Rams are fortunate to be here. That doesn't mean that they're not the better team though. Much has changed since Brady and Goff met two years ago, a 26-10 win for the Patriots. Both QBs have gotten older, a good thing for Goff's development but not necessarily for Brady. Goff had Gurley back then. However, he also had Jeff Fisher (tied for most reg. season losses in NFL history) coaching him and nearly everything else has changed, too. The Rams are stronger across the board then they were. The same cannot necessarily be said of the Pats. The Rams averaged 32.4 ppg this season, the Pats averaged 28.6. While not many will make mention of it, I believe that the environment (stadium) helps LA and I like that the Rams are coming off a game in New Orleans as compared to the Patriots coming off a very cold game at Arrowhead. The Aaron Donald factor on defense needs to be mentioned; he can and does change games. It also needs to be noted that the Rams were a perfect 4-0 against the AFC this season, including wins against the Chiefs and Chargers, the two teams that N.E. beat to get here. Look for the Rams to prove to be the better team Sunday.
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs -3||Top||37-31||Loss||-100||157 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). Playing at home, the Patriots managed a 43-40 win when these teams met in the shootout. On a chilly Sunday at Arrowhead, I expect the Chiefs to have their revenge. They're saying this will likely be the coldest playoff game ever played here. I expect that to benefit the hard-hitting home team. We know about Mahomes and the offense; the Chiefs 35.1 ppg was #1 in the NFL. (New England ranked 4th at 28.1 ppg.) However, I also really liked what I saw from the Chiefs' defense last week, as they absolutely dominated Luck and the Colts. The Pats were 0-3 SU/ATS on the road this season, when the O/U line was 49.5 or greater. The Chiefs, 4-2 ATS as home favorites of -3 or less, got the playoff monkey off their backs last week. Demons exorcised, expect them to ride the positive momentum right into the Super Bowl.
|01-20-19||Rams v. Saints -3||Top||26-23||Loss||-124||153 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. Obviously, these are both excellent teams. That said, playing at home, where they already defeated these same Rams by 10, I expect the Saints to have the edge. Brees may be getting older but he's only gotten better the past couple of seasons. He's been here before. He doesn't get phased. He knows another Super Bowl on his resume puts him in the discussion with the all-time best. Brees is backed by a strong 2-headed ground attack and he's throwing to the best receiver in Saints history. Brees also has an aggressive coach who knows how to win. Indeed, the Brees/Payton doesn't lose home playoff games. Period. The Saints are 6-0 here in playoff games with the combination of Payton/Brees running the show. Michael Thomas had this to say of Payton: "When Coach pushes his chips all in, we've got to push our chips all in right with him, and that’s how you win games." Saints wideout Michael Thomas said. I really like the way the Saints rallied last week and feel thats the type of win that can and will provide them with positive momentum and propel them to the Super Bowl. Saints advance, covering the small number along the way.
BONUS FIRST HALF PLAY: I'm playing NEW ORLEANS on the money-line for the first half (8*). Obviously, these are both excellent teams. That said, playing at home, where they already defeated these same Rams by 10, I expect the Saints to have the edge. Brees may be getting older but he's only gotten better the past couple of seasons. He's been here before. He doesn't get phased. He knows another Super Bowl on his resume puts him in the discussion with the all-time best. Brees is backed by a strong 2-headed ground attack and he's throwing to the best receiver in Saints history. Brees also has an aggressive coach who knows how to win. Indeed, the Brees/Payton doesn't lose home playoff games. Period. The Saints are 6-0 here in playoff games with the combination of Payton/Brees running the show. Michael Thomas had this to say of Payton: "When Coach pushes his chips all in, we've got to push our chips all in right with him, and that’s how you win games." Saints wideout Michael Thomas said. I really like the way the Saints rallied last week and feel thats the type of win that can and will provide them with positive momentum right from the opening kickoff Sunday afternoon. The Saints had their "wake-up call" against the Eagles and I expect a much quicker start here. Expect them to be leading at the break.
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||Top||13-31||Win||100||97 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC (10* GAME OF WEEK). I'm well aware that the Chiefs haven't historically fared too well in the playoffs. Some of you may remember our play in the game when the Colts shocked the Chiefs in 2014, rallying from a huge deficit to win 45-44. More of you will recall that I successfully backed the underdog Titans against KC in last year's playoffs. (Tennessee rallied in the 4th quarter for the outright win.) I believe that this year's team is different though. Better. Mahomes took the offense to an entirely different level and the team comes in extremely confident as a result. Note that the Colts, who are just 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were off two or more consecutive ATS wins, average 23.9 ppg on the road. Meanwhile, the Chiefs average 32.4 ppg at home. Some times, teams need to lose before they can learn to win. In the Chiefs' case, I believe that they've gone through that and are now ready to win. They come in on a mission and are ready to make things right. While the Colts will be playing their third road game in three weeks, the bye week figures to have served the Chiefs very well. Expect them to be exoricse some of their playoff demons, picking up the cover along the way.
|01-05-19||Seahawks v. Cowboys -1||Top||22-24||Win||100||124 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on DALLAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). I have a lot of respect for Wilson, Carroll and the Seahawks. With wins in six of their last seven, they've been hot, too. Thats been a grueling stretch though. Not only have the Hawks been back and forth from coast to coast, they've gotten quite banged-up in the process. Keep in mind that this team has been suffering key personnel losses each of the past few offseasons. While the Hawks won the earlier meeting back in September, that was at Seattle. Well known for their strong home field advantage, the Hawks were 6-2 at Seattle. However, they were just 4-4 on the road. The Cowboys, just 3-5 on the road, were a dominant 7-1 here at Dallas. While the Hawks are 6-11 ATS the past 2+ seasons off a home win, the Cowboys are 9-3 ATS off a road win. Expect homefield to prove the difference, the Cowboys improving to 3-0 ATS the last three times that they attempted to avenge a road loss.
|01-05-19||Colts v. Texans -1||Top||21-7||Loss||-120||120 h 18 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Colts came through when they needed to against the Titans, a 33-17 victory. Taking on the Texans figures to be far more difficult. This Houston team can do it all. A highly capable QB with one of the most dominant receivers in the game. A running game which ranks #8 in the NFL. An outstanding defense which tied for #4 in the league, in terms of points allowed per game, one which shuts down opposing running games and forces teams to try and beat them through the air. While the road team did manage to win both regular season meetings, home field is indeed significant to both teams. The Colts are 4-4 on the road, the Texans are 6-2 at home. The Colts are 1-3 ATS their last four, as road underdogs of three or less. During that span, they're also just 3-7 ATS after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game. Bottom line: I believe that the Texans are the more complete team and that getting them here at Houston, laying less than a field goal, is offering excellent value. Expect them to advance, covering the small number along the way.
|12-30-18||Colts v. Titans +3.5||Top||33-17||Loss||-115||12 h 19 m||Show|
I'm playing on TENNESSEE (10* GAME OF WEEK). This game got moved to the primetime slot because there's so much on the line. While Mariota is reportedly less than 100%, he's expected to warmup with the intention of playing. In the event he doesn't go, Gabbert is a highly capable backup. He beat the Texans when called upon earlier in the year. Last week, he relieved Mariota and led the Titans to a comeback win against the Redskins. Note that was a Saturday game, giving the Titans an extra day of prep time, compared to the Colts who eked out a 1-point win on Sunday. Speaking of close games, the Colts last road game resulted in a 3-point win. Even with that victory, they've won just two of their last six on the road; the only win by more than a field goal came at Oakland. While the Colts won big in the earlier meeting, that was at Indianapolis and it was before the Tennessee ground game got going. Whether its Mariota or Gabbert behind center, the Titans' QB will have the luxury of handing off to a red hot running back. Derrick Henry has been nearly unstoppable, piling up an 81/532/8 stat line over the past month. Don't be surprised when this one comes down to the wire, the Titans improving to 5-0 ATS the last five times that they attempted to avenge a loss where they'd allowed 35 or more points.
|12-23-18||Bears v. 49ers +5||Top||14-9||Push||0||10 h 37 m||Show|
I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO (10* GAME OF WEEK). I've won with the 49ers each of the past two weeks. I've really liked what I've seen from them and I'm going back to the well one more time. This is the 49ers home finale, which should provide some added motivation. They want to keep their positive momentum going and are anxious to see how they fare against one of this season's top teams. While the Bears still boast a great defense, they're going to be without safety Eddie Jackson. Thats a big boost for the 49ers as Jackson has six INTs this season and has scored three TD's. Linebacker Aaron Lynch will also miss for the Bears. Chicago, which has already clinched the NFC North, is off a win over archrival Green Bay (and the Rams before that) and has division rival Minnesota on deck. Note that the Bears are 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were listed as road favorites of seven or less. Meanwhile, the 49ers are now 3-0 ATS this season as home underdogs of seven or less. Last season's meeting, at Chicago, had a final score of 16-15. The 49ers had a 23-8 edge in first downs and dominated time of possession. While obviously much has changed, I expect another close one and I'm grabbing the points.
|12-23-18||Falcons v. Panthers -2.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-106||101 h 3 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA. As most of you are aware, I won with the Panthers when they covered against the Saints on Monday night. Though they fell short of the SU win, I liked their effort. This is a team which plays much better on its home field. Sunday afternoon represents their home finale and I believe that they're going to be highly motivated to snap their losing streak and to reward the home faithful with a final victory. The fact that they're playing with revenge against a division rival only should only add to their motivation level. True, the Falcons got a big win last week. However, that was at home against a poor Arizona team. Now, the Falcons are on the road where they're just 1-5. The Panthers are 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they were off a division loss. While they won't have Newton, I believe they're still very capable of winning. Taylor Heinicke may not have NFL experience but he is very ready and knows this system extremely well. Wide reveiver Jarius Wright noted: "I'm expecting him to go out there and play lights out. I think Taylor's a good quarterback — I just think a lot of people haven't gotten a chance to see him play. So I'm excited for him to show everybody else what he can do. Because I've seen it." Expect their best effort, as they again bounce back from a div. loss, with another win and cover.
|12-22-18||Ravens v. Chargers -4.5||Top||22-10||Loss||-106||128 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA. On this field, I believe that the Chargers are the superior team. Combine that with, what I believe is also, a significant scheduling advantage, and I expect them to pull away for a big win Saturday afternoon. The Ravens average 21.4 ppg on the road, the Chargers average 29.3 ppg at home. While the Ravens are working on a short week, the Chargers have had extra time to prepare. The Ravens will already be playing their third road game in December. Some might be surprised to learn that they're only 5-11 ATS their last 16 as underdogs, 4-10 ATS as road underdogs. In fact, the Ravens are 0-7 ATS the past seven times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 4-0 SU this season and 6-1 SU / 5-2 ATS when off a win by six or less. Homefield and schedule in their favor, expect them to improve on those stats Saturday evening.
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers +7||Top||12-9||Win||100||27 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* MAIN EVENT). Its not often the Panthers find themselves getting points at home, let alone this many of them. Thats the case though - a combination of New Orleans having a strong season and Carolina currently struggling. Lets not forget that the Panthers are 11-6 ATS the past few seasons, when getting points, 3-1 ATS as home underdogs. During that stretch, they're also 8-5 ATS when coming off a road loss. I expect this game to carry a lot of meaning for the Panthers. Division rival, Monday night, looking to snap their skid, looking to prove to the world that they're a much better team than their record indicates. Note that none of the Panthers' last four losses came by more than a touchdown and those four losses came by an average of only four points. Speaking of close games, three of the past five meetings between these teams have been decided by five or less. I'm grabbing the points.
|12-16-18||Seahawks v. 49ers +7||Top||23-26||Win||100||121 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF (10* GAME OF MONTH). I won with the 49ers last week and I'm coming right back with them again here. While Seattle won again last week, it now plays on a short week. Though he had some decent plays with his feet, Wilson had a poor performance and the final score wasn't necessarily all that reflective of the way the game played out. Note that Seattle is just 2-6 ATS its last eight as a road favorite. During that span, the Hawks are also just 3-6 ATS off a double-digit home win and a poor 5-11 ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points. The 49ers, 2-0 ATS as home underdogs of seven or fewer points, will be looking to prove that they're a alot better than the team which got blown out at Seattle a couple of weeks ago. Venue (and schedule) now in their favor, expect a huge effort to lead to AT LEAST another cover Sunday afternoon.
|12-15-18||Browns v. Broncos -3||Top||17-16||Loss||-103||101 h 23 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). While I successfully played against the Broncos last week, they're back home now and I feel that they're providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that this team had previous won and covered three straight. Last week was just a tough spot, as they were playing their second straight on the road. The Broncos' last few home games have come against quality teams like the Steelers, Texans and Rams. While Cleveland is better than it has been in recent years, the Browns have still dropped three of their last four on the road. The last two of those losses both came by double-digits. The Browns will be playing their third road game in the past four weeks and they've got divisional games against the Bengals and Ravens on deck. Expect the Broncos to bounce back and improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were off an upset loss as a road favorite.
|12-09-18||Broncos v. 49ers +5.5||Top||14-20||Win||100||96 h 40 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Broncos have been all over the place lately. After playing two of three on the road, they got a bye in early November. That was followed by a trip out West (LA) and then back to Denver. Last week, they played at Cincinnati. Now, here they are back on the West Coast. I expect it to catch up with them and feel that they're over-valued. The last time that Denver played the second of b2b road games, it lost by seven. While the defense improved the last couple of weeks, the Broncos are 0-4 ATS their last four, when off b2b games where they allowed 17 or fewer points. During the same span, the 49ers are 5-3 ATS, after failing to score more than 17 in b2b games. The last time that the 49ers were in that situation they won 34-3. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST another cover Sunday afternoon.
|12-09-18||Giants v. Redskins +4||Top||40-16||Loss||-110||121 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. As many of you know, I successfully played against these same Redskins on Monday night, while also cashing with the 'under' in that game. However, that was on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs, who were playing for their season. Now, the Skins are at home, facing a Giants team which is playing out the string. Thats a major difference. Yet, they're still getting a handful of points. Talk about no respect! While the Giants have actually won a few recently, including a win over the Bears last week, none of those wins came by more than four points. They're also just 1-5-1 ATS their last seven off a SU win as an underdog. While I like the Skins to rise to the occasion and win this one outright, I'm happy to grab the points.
|12-02-18||Rams v. Lions +10.5||Top||30-16||Loss||-130||75 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on DETROIT (10* BEST BET). While I obviously respect the Rams, I feel that they're laying too big a number here. Five of the Rams' last seven games have been decided by five or fewer points, six of those seven decided by 10 or less. Likewise, the Lions have seen each of their last two games decided by seven or less. Expect the Lions to rise to the occasion, giving the Rams all they can handle with a great shot at the outright upset.
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +8||Top||10-13||Win||100||34 h 25 m||Show|
I'm playing on DALLAS (10* BEAST). The Saints are obviously playing great football. However, lately, the same can also be said of the Cowboys. They're 3-0 SU/ATS their last three, the first two of those wins coming on the road. Last week, they returned home for their annual Thanksgiving Day game, beating the Redskins. That brings them to 4-1 here on the season, 14-8 the past 2+ seasons. As good as they've been this season, the Saints are still just 11-10 on the road, during the same span. The fact that the Cowboys played on the Thursday gives them a normal week's worth of preparation time - which should serve them well with the Saints coming to town. New Orleans, on the other hand, plays on a short week. Grab the generous points but schedule and venue in their favor, don't be surprised when the Cowboys shock the world with an outright win.
|11-25-18||Packers v. Vikings -3||Top||17-24||Win||100||127 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* NFC NORTH GOY). The Packers desperately need a win to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive. That doesn't mean that they're going to get one though. While many can't imagine the playoffs without Rodgers, they better get used to the idea. The Vikings need this one (nearly) every bit as much as the Packers. While they've got a better record than the Packers, they're still traiing the Bears by two games and they know they can ill afford to lose a divisional home game. The Vikings tied the Pack at Lambeau already and they outscored them 39-10 in sweeping last season's series. Both teams have scored about the same number of points. The Packers average 24.7, the Vikes average 24.1. However, its on the other side of the ball that the Vikes will have the edge. The Packers allow 29.8 points and 375.4 yards per road game. The Vikings, on the other hand, allow 19.8 ppg and a mere 273.4 yards per game at home. They're 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. Expect their superior defense to lead to them improving on those stats Sunday night.
|11-25-18||Giants v. Eagles -5||Top||22-25||Loss||-109||28 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Eagles badly need a win and a visit from the Giants figures to be just what the doctor ordered. With a 34-13 win in October, the Eagles have now beaten Eli and co. four straight times. Though they certainly didn't look too good against the Saints, in my opinion, the Eagles still have a far superior defense to the Giants. They allow less than 20 ppg here while NY allows more than 24 ppg on the road. Embarrassed last week, expect the champs to play with a chip on their shoulder, bouncing back and improving to 6-2 ATS the past eight times that they were off two or more consecutive victories.
|11-22-18||Falcons +13.5 v. Saints||Top||17-31||Loss||-133||80 h 12 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* MAIN EVENT). Going against the Saints may be a bit nerve-racking for some. Indeed, they've been on an impressive roll. However, even though it may seem that they're blowing everyone out of the water, lets not forget that three of their last five games have still been decided by 10 points or less. Speaking of "close games," since the Falcons hammered the Saints by a 45-32 score here at New Orleans in September of 2016, the last four meetings between these rivals have ALL been decided by 10 or fewer points. While the Falcons are surely disappointed with their record, they've still only lost one game by more than 12 points all season long. This is a huge game for them and I expect them to come "ready to play." With the Saints just 5-10 ATS the last 15 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range, I'm grabbing all those generous points.
|11-19-18||Chiefs v. Rams -3||Top||51-54||Push||0||104 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* MNF GAME OF YEAR). When this game was moved from Mexico to LA, I believe it was a bigger advantage for the Rams than is being indicated by the pointspread. Its true that the Rams have recently been winning, while not covering, with regularity. However, lets not forget that they're still 5-0 here at home and that they're still outscoring teams by an average of 34.4 to 22.4 when playing at home. In terms of total yards, they're outgaining teams by a 476 to 342 margin here. By comparison, the Chiefs are actually getting outgained by a 457.8 to 440 average margin, when playing on the road. Thats a major difference, the Rams allowing 342 yards at home while the Chiefs allowing 458 on the road. Expect the Rams to make a statement, remaining perfect at home, while covering the small number along the way.
|11-18-18||Steelers v. Jaguars +6||Top||20-16||Win||100||101 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE (10* GAME OF MONTH). Before the season began, not many would have predicted that the Steelers would be such big road favorites here. That would be particularly true if they knew that LeVeon Bell wasn't playing. Yet, that is indeed the case. The Steelers have been playing well while the Jags have underachieved. That said, I liked a number of things that I saw from the Jags in last weeks (3-point) loss vs. the Colts and I believe that the generous pointspread is providing us with excellent value. You may recall that the Jags beat the Steelers by three points in January. They also hammered them last October. Including those results, the're 5-0-1 ATS their last six against teams from the AFC North. They're going to come in confident. All four of Pittsburgh's road games have been decided by seven or fewer points. One finished in a tie, another was decided by three points. Speaking of close games, the Jags have now seen b2b games decided by six or fewer points. With another close game a real possibility and with the Steelers just 1-4 ATS their last five as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range, I'm grabbing the points.
|11-11-18||Saints v. Bengals +5||Top||51-14||Loss||-105||121 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on CINCY (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Saints have sure been on a nice roll. However, this will mark the fifth time that they played on the road, in their past seven games. Off a big win over the previously undefeated Rams, preceded by a big win over the Vikings, the team which knocked them out of the playoffs last season, I feel that the Saints are going to be ripe for a letdown here. Note that the Saints have long struggled against the AFC North, going 8-20-2 ATS their last 30. While the Saints were busy battling the Rams last week, the Bengals are coming off a bye. The Bengals have won three of four home games and I expect AT LEAST a cover Sunday afternoon.
|11-08-18||Panthers +4 v. Steelers||Top||21-52||Loss||-105||56 h 16 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* VIOLATOR). Both teams are hot. The Panthers have won three straight and five of six. The Steelers have won four straight and five of six. That said, I like the Panthers. While Pittsburgh is only 4-6 ATS its last 10 as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -7 range, Carolina is 11-5 ATS its last 16 as an underdog. The Panthers are also already 2-0 SU/ATS against AFC opponents, going 7-2-1 ATS (7-3 SU) their last 10. They hammered both Baltimore and Cincy by double-digits. While the Steelers figure to present a tougher challenge, in a game which could well come down to the wire, I'm taking the points.
|11-04-18||Bears v. Bills +10||Top||41-9||Loss||-105||75 h 17 m||Show|
I'm playing on BUFFALO (10* GAME OF WEEK). Everyone just saw the Bills lose, while failing to cover, against the Patriots on National TV. Off that loss, oddsmakers know that few bettors were going to want to back the Bills and were forced to put up a big number. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. While the Bears are clearly an improved team, they still aren't the type of team capable of winning by double-digits on the road. They're played three road games, winning only one of them. All three games were decided by three or fewer points. Despite the lopsided score last week, the Bills were in position to cover right up until the end, a late pick-6 doing them in. They're still playing hard. I expect them to give the Bears all they can handle.
|10-28-18||Saints v. Vikings +1||Top||30-20||Loss||-112||128 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* TV GAME OF YEAR). I won with the Vikings when they beat the Saints 29-24 in the playoffs last season. Admittedly, I felt pretty fortunate to win that one; the victory coming on an unlikely Keenum to Diggs TD on the final play. That "good fortune" won't stop me from backing the Vikes again though. Minnesota opened at -3.5 and closed at -5.5 for that game. So, results varied, depending on when one played. However, the pointspread is essentially a non-factor in Sunday's rematch and I feel thats providing us with excellent value with the home team. Both teams are playing well. Since beating the defending champs, the Vikes have followed it up with back-to-back double-digit victories. Meanwhile, the Saints eked out a 1-point win (at Baltimore) last week and have now won five straight. That said, this will mark the Saints' fourth road game in their past five games. Thats a tough stretch and I expect it to catch up to them at this very hostile environment. While the Saints are still 9-10 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons, the Vikes are 15-5 here at home. Its worth noting that the Vikes are also 13-7 ATS the last 20 times that they played a game with a line in the -3 to +3 range. Expect home field and their superior defense to make the difference, in a statement win.
|10-22-18||Giants v. Falcons -3.5||Top||20-23||Loss||-103||34 h 21 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Neither team is where it wants to be, obviously. However, while the Giants' season is already a write-off, the Falcons still believe in theirs. Though they have an extremely difficult road ahead of them, the Falcons kept their hopes alive by beating the Bucs last week. They've got a more balanced and far more dangerous offense than do the Giants. While NY averages 19.5 ppg, 27th best in the NFL entering Sunday, the Falcons average 27.8, 9th best. At home, that number climbs to an impressive 34.5 points per game. With last week's win, the Falcons are 14-8 here the past 2+ seasons. That includes a 5-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. During the same span, the Giants were 3-6 ATS (1-8 SU) as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range, 5-14 on the road overall. While the Falcons have the type of offense capable of coming from behind, the same cannot necessarily be said of the Giants. Playing at home and trying to climb back into playoff relevance, expect the Falcons to put up another fairly big number and for the Giants to be unable to keep up.
|10-21-18||Browns v. Bucs -3||Top||23-26||Push||0||148 h 48 m||Show|
I'm playing on TB (10* NON-CONF GAME OF YEAR). While I successfully played against thm at Atlanta, the Bucs still played well in that game. Playing on the road against a desperate team, they refused to go away and took the game down to the wire. Now, they step down in class and return home. Cleveland has already shown its improved but last week's blowout loss to the Chargers revealed that there are still plenty of issuses. Still winless on the road, all the OT games have caught up. Note that Cleveland is 2-32 SU and 10-24 ATS its last 34 as an underdog. In fairness to the Bucs, they've played an awfully tough schedule. Three of their first five games were on the road (New Orleans, Chicago and Atlanta) and their two home games were against the defending Super Bowl champs, who they beat, and the Steelers, who they nearly beat. A home game against the Browns may not be as "easy" as it once was but its still far more appealing than hosting the likes of the Steelers or Eagles. Expect the Bucs, who know they have two road games on deck, to take advantage of the winnable home game, covering the small number along the way.
|10-15-18||49ers +10 v. Packers||Top||30-33||Win||100||35 h 31 m||Show|
I'm playing on SF (10* MAIN EVENT). While they may only have one win, the 49ers have been competitive in every game. They're worst loss came by 11 and that was at KC. (They're outgaining opponents by a 378-348 average on the season.) Meanwhile, the Packers actually only have one victory by more than a point - and that was against Buffalo. Expect the 49ers to come to play, giving their hosts all they can handle and improving to 32-10 ATS their last 42 under the Monday night lights.
|10-14-18||Bucs v. Falcons -3||Top||29-34||Win||100||117 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* GAME OF MONTH). Needless to say, with a 1-4 record and with Carolina and New Orleans sitting at 3-1 and 4-1, this is a must-win game for the Falcons. The Bucs came back down to earth in a big way last time out (48-10 loss) and now Winston will be making his first start of the season. While they don't count close losses in the standings, it should be noted that Atlanta could easily have a better record and is still a talented team. The Falcons are still 13-8 here the past 2+ seasons, the Bucs are still 7-11 on the road, during the same period. The Falcons won both meetings against the Bucs last season, including a 34-20 victory in the game here at Atlanta. Note that the Falcons were laying -10 for that one. While salvaging the season isn't going to be at all easy, I don't believe that Falcons are ready to pack it in quite yet. Expect their best effort to lead to a win and cover.
|10-08-18||Redskins +6 v. Saints||Top||19-43||Loss||-108||28 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* BEST BET). Brees should get his record but the Skins will be the team which comes away with the cover. Last season's meeting here was decided by three points (in OT) and the Skins are arguably a stronger team now. Note that Washington led by double-digits, entering the fourth quarter. The Saints have only one victory by more than six points through this season's first four games. They're just 1-1 here at home and that win came by three points, against Cleveland. The Skins, 2-0 SU off their bye week the past two seasons, have had extra time to prepare. They won their only road game this season and check in off a victory against Green Bay. Like last season, this one may well come down to the wire. I'm grabbing the points.
|10-07-18||Raiders v. Chargers -4.5||Top||10-26||Win||100||54 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). As you're surely aware, the Raiders finaly got a win last week. However, that was at home, against Cleveland. Now, they're on the road against an arguably much tougher opponent. The Raiders' last visit here resulted in a 30-10 win for the Chagers. While the Chargers are only 2-2 and 1-3 ATS, their two losses came against the Rams and Chiefs, a pair of high level teams. When facing weaker opposition, they've taken care of business. While the Raiders have averaged 19.5 pgg in their two road games, the Chargers average 28.5 ppg and 454.5 ypg here at home. Factoring in that that the Raiders also allow more than 30 ppg and more than 400 ypg, when playing on the road, we can expect the Chargers to put up another fairly big number. Like last year, the Raiders will be unable to keep up.
|10-07-18||Titans v. Bills +3.5||Top||12-13||Win||100||144 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on BUFFALO (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Bills are going to be a desperate team here. At 1-3 and with a pair or road games up next, they know that they need to take care of business here. The Titans may be ripe for a letdown as they are off an emotional OT win over the defending champs. Note that ALL three of their victories have come by fewer than four points. In other words, they have yet to win a game by more than field goal this season. True, the Bills have gotten off to a tough start. However, the blowout victory at Minnesota shows that they're capable and I feel that this is a team they'll match up well against. With the Titans just 2-7-1 ATS (4-6 SU) the last 10 times that they were off two or more consecutive victories, I'm grabbing the points.
|10-04-18||Colts v. Patriots -10||Top||24-38||Win||100||84 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND (10* ANNIHILATOR). The Pats got going in a big way last week and I expect them to carry the momentum into Thursday's game. Playing at home, in b2b weeks, when playing on a short week is an advantage. The Colts, meanwhile, will be playing their third road game in the past four weeks and they're coming off a hard-fought OT loss against Houston. That defeat was both emotionally and physically draining and its going to be tough to bounce back quickly against a suddenly surging New England team which is going to be looking to make a statement on National TV. Expect a blowout.
|10-01-18||Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5||Top||27-23||Win||100||180 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). While the Chiefs have obviously looked pretty good, I feel that the value lies with the home team. While both games were close, lets not forget that the Broncos are 2-0 on this field. Speaking of close games, note that both of the games here the last two seasons were decided by three points. The Chiefs are already playing their third road game in the first four weeks. Expect it to catch up to them, the home underdog Broncos taking the game down to the wire and earning AT LEAST the cover.
|09-30-18||Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5||Top||7-38||Win||100||116 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. (10* AFC GOM) While they may have lost two in a row, bettors know better than to count out the Patriots. Thats why they're stil healthy favorites here, despite Miami boasting the superior record. The Pats are favored for good reason, however, and I expect them to do more than enough to bring home the cash. At 3-0, the Dolphins have over-achieved. Note that they're actually getting outgained by an average of 377 to 324, while also getting beaten in terms of time of possession and first downs. A closer look shows that the schedule-maker has also arguably helped the Dolphins quite a bit, too. Their three games came against the Titans, Jets and Raiders, two of the three coming at home. Those three teams are a combined 3-6, entering Week 4. They were a combined 20-27 last season. The Pats, on the other hand, have played two of three on the road and their games came against the Jags, Lions and Texans. Most would agree that the Pats have faced the tough opponents. New England did take care of business in its lone home game, a 7-point with over the Texans. With that victory, the Pats are 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. They beat the Dolphins by 18 here last season, after beating them by seven here the previous season. Expect more of the same on Sunday afternoon.
|09-27-18||Vikings +7 v. Rams||Top||31-38||Push||0||35 h 60 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* BEST BET). Off their (29-29) showdown with the Packers and perhaps looking ahead to this game, the Vikings didn't show up last week against Buffalo. Favored by more than two touchdowns, against a team which had been outscored by a 78-23 margin through its first two games, the Vikings got destroyed. Now, they take on a red hot Rams team. While I respect the Rams, I believe that the Vikes will bounce back with their best effort. The Vikings dominated the Rams last season, outgaining them by a 171-45 margin on the ground, while also beating them through the air. They had a huge advantage in time of possession and had nearly twice as many first downs. While the Rams are arguably stronger than last season, the Vikes also arguably have a better lineup than last season. Expect the Rams to bring out their best, as they put it all together en route to AT LEAST a cover.
|09-23-18||Bears v. Cardinals +6||Top||16-14||Win||100||76 h 29 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* DOG OF WEEK). The Cards (0-2) need this one more and I expect that to show on the field. The Bears have been involved in a pair of emotional games to start the season and are playing on a short week. Even with the cover (still lost by one) at Lambeau, the Bears are The Cards are a perfect 4-0 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off two or more consecutive losses. Expect them to improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover on Sunday afternoon.
|09-23-18||Bengals v. Panthers -2.5||Top||21-31||Win||100||144 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* GAME OF YEAR). I won with the Panthers in their opener and then successfully played against them in their second game, at Atlanta. Really, they played well in both games. The same can be said for the Bengals, who check in off a big divisional win over the Ravens and with a 2-0 record overall. Expect them to come back to earth here though. The fact that the win over the Ravens was on National TV has everybody jumping on board the Bengal band wagon. This is still a very tough place to play though and, Week 1 at Indy notwithstanding, the Bengals have been terrible on the road for as long as anyone can remember. Including the Week 1 victory, a game in which they dominated the Cowboys defensively, the Panthers are 11-6 at home the past two seasons. During the same span, the Bengals are only 6-11 on the road. While the Panthers have a balanced run/pass attack, Newton threw for 335 yards (32-of-45) and three TD's (105.3 passer rating) last week and he's going to be licking his chops for this week's matchup. Hidden behind their 2-0 record, the Bengals have allowed 332 passing yards per game. Yes, part of that comes from the fact that they've been playing ahead and opposing teams have been forced to throw. However, at more than 400 yards allowed per game, I feel it'll catch up to them here. Carolina wins, covering the small number along the way.
|09-17-18||Seahawks +3.5 v. Bears||Top||17-24||Loss||-115||58 h 36 m||Show|
I'm playing on SEATTLE (10* GAME OF WEEK). While I played against the Hawks, I'm coming right back with them this week. The Bears came out and showed everyone that they aren't going to be a pushover last week, jumping all over the Packers out of the gate. In the end, however, Green Bay still managed to come away with the SU victory. That type of heart-breaking loss figures to be difficult for the Bears to immediately bounce back from. Now the favorite, the Bears find themselves in pretty unfamiliar territory here. Note that they're just 1-5 ATS (and SU!) the last six times that they were laying points. Both teams saw their Week 1 games decided by three or fewer points. I could also see this one easily coming down to the wire and am grabbing the points.
|09-16-18||Panthers v. Falcons -6||Top||24-31||Win||100||27 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA (10* PERS FAV). I successfully played on CAROLINA last week while also successfully played against Atlanta. As you know, the Falcons were at Philadelphia while the Panthers were hosting the Cowboys. The shoe is on the other foot this week, however, as Atlanta is now at home while Carolina is on the road. Thats pretty signficant for both teams. While Carolina is tough to beat a home, the Panthers aren't the same team on the road. They're just 7-9 SU on the road the past 2+ seasons, just 1-4 SU when listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. Not surprisingly, the Panthers eked out a victory when they hosted the Falcons last season but lost 22-10 here at Atlanta. Including those results, they're only 4-9 SU/ATS their last 13 divisional games. The Falcons, meanwhile, have won nine of their last 12 within the division. Expect them to improve on those stats Sunday afternoon, picking up the cover along the way.
|09-10-18||Rams v. Raiders +4.5||Top||33-13||Loss||-110||77 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND (10* GAME OF WEEK). While I respect the Rams, I don't think the Raiders are being given enough credit by the betting public here. Sure, it would be nice to have Mack back on defense. However, is departure doesn't immediately make them terrible, the way so many seem to be claiming and expecting. While the Raiders defense being without Mack will dominate the headlines, few will mention that the Rams offense will be without starting right guard Brown, as he's out due to suspension. Nor will they consider that the offense may well be rusty, due to the starters sitting during the preseason. Gruden is going to have his team fired up, as will the crowd. McVay got much of his coaching philosophy from Gruden and considers him a mentor. Expect the "mentor" to earn AT LEAST a cover against the "student" on Monday night.
|09-09-18||Bears v. Packers -7||Top||23-24||Loss||-109||50 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on GREEN BAY (10* MAIN EVENT). The Packers have been beating up on the Bears for a long time now, particularly here at Lambeau. Last season's game here saw GB win by a score of 35-14. The previous season, they won 26-10 here. While some of the other faces have come and gone, so long as McCarthy and Rodgers are running the show, we should be able to expect another big win on Sunday night. The Bears managed only 14.5 points per road game last season. They're 4-8 ATS (2-10 SU) the past dozen times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. The Packers, meanwhile, are 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) the past nine times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Expect Rodgers and co. to improve on those stats Sunday night.
|01-14-18||Saints v. Vikings -3.5||Top||24-29||Win||100||151 h 35 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Saints are tough to beat at home. However, the were only 3-4 SU/ATS in 'true' road games. That includes a double-digit loss here at Minnesota. Including that 29-19 result on 9/11, the Vikings are an impressive 7-1 (6-1-1 ATS) at home. The Vikings have thrived in the favorite role in recent seasons. Including an 8-3-1 ATS mark this year, they're 21-9-1 ATS, the past 2+ seasons, when laying points. While Brees had a big game againt Carolina, the Saints were unable to run the ball effectively. That was against a Panther defense which came in allowing more than 20 ppg and which they'd already scored 30+ against twice in the regular season. Now, they'll face a Vikings defense which allows a mere 12.5 ppg and 248.5 ypg here at home. Expect homefield advantage combined with the extra week of preparation time and the superior defense to all prove the difference, the Vikings advancing to the next round, while picking up the cover along the way.
|01-07-18||Panthers +6.5 v. Saints||Top||26-31||Win||100||149 h 34 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Behind an improved defense and an improved ground game, the Saints got the better of the Panthers in both regular season meetings. However, the Panthers started playing their best football, arguably, after the 12/3 loss at New Orleans. I expect them to give the Saints a much tougher test in Round 3. Note that before this season, the previous four meetings between these teams were all decided by five or fewer points. The Panthers, who have more recent playoff experience than the Saints, are 10-4 ATS as underdogs the past 2+ seasons, 5-2 ATS their past seven. Expect them to improve on those results on Sunday afternoon.
|12-31-17||Redskins v. Giants +3.5||Top||10-18||Win||100||118 h 8 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK (10* GAME OF WEEK). Many are going to expect the Giants to pack it in. I'm not among them. While I successfully played against the Giants last week, this one figures to have considerably more meaning to them. Home finale. Divisional opponent. Revenge game. Possibly Eli's last start here. (Even if he doesn't play the whole game, he's going to start. And the latest word was: "we want Eli to take every snap.") The Skins played well in their home finale last week. However, like the Giants, they've got issues on both sides of the ball. Look for NY to want this one a little more and that to lead to AT LEAST a cover.
|12-25-17||Steelers v. Texans +9||Top||34-6||Loss||-105||31 h 27 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON (10* BEST BET). Both teams lost last week. The Texans got destroyed at Jacksonville. The Steelers lost a heartbreaker against the Pats. While Pittsburgh was obviously much better in its loss, I believe that it will be easier for the Texans to 'bounce back' from theirs. For Houston, this game is as big as its going to get. Home finale. National TV. A chance to show the world that its a better team than the record indicates. The Steelers, on the other hand, have bigger games ahead. Last week's 'thriller' marked their fourth consecutive game which was decided by three or fewer points. Losing in that fashion can take a toll. Not having Antonio Brown doesn't help, either. Six of the Steelers' last seven have been decided by a less than a touchdown. I'm taking the points.
|12-24-17||Giants v. Cardinals -4||Top||0-23||Win||100||128 h 41 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF WEEK). Its obviously been a disappointing season for both teams. While neither will be going to the playoffs, I expect the Cards to be the more motivated team on Sunday afternoon. After all, this is their home finale. They're still 4-3 here on the season and a victory gives them a winning record here. On the other hand, the Giants are just 1-6 on the road. Last game here, the Cards beat the Titans by five. A month ago, they beat the Jags here. While the Cards are off b2b "non-divisional" games, the Giants are off b2b divisional contests, the type that can take a toll on a team. They fought hard vs. the Eagles last week but it wasn't enough. Off that tough loss and with another divisional game, their home finale, on deck, its going to be hard for them to "get up" for this one. While the Giants allow 396.8 ypg on the road, the Cards allow just 286.4 ypg at home. Expect the home fans to go home happy.
|12-18-17||Falcons v. Bucs +6.5||Top||24-21||Win||100||24 h 11 m||Show|
I'm playing on TB (10* MAIN EVENT). While its been a disappointing season for the Bucs, they're still fighting hard. Only one of their past five games has resulted in a loss of greater than six points. That one loss came at Atlanta, vs. these same Falcons, a 34-20 setback a few weeks ago. Since then, like the Bucs, the Falcons have been involved in some close games - a 5-point loss and a 3-point win. Playing with revenge against a divisional rival and getting to do so on Monday Night, I expect the Bucs to treat this game like their Super Bowl. Look for them to give the Falcons, who have been outscored by a 22.8 to 22.7 margin on the road this season, all they can handle, with an excellent shot at the outright upset.
|12-11-17||Patriots v. Dolphins +11.5||Top||20-27||Win||100||31 h 43 m||Show|
I'm playing on MIAMI (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Pats, who play at Pittsburgh next week, are playing their fourth road game in the past five weeks. This will mark their third straight divisional game. The lone home game they've played recently was against these same Dolphins. New England won and covered. The Dolphins have since snapped their skid, however, destroying Denver by a 35-9 margin here next week. The Dolphins are much better here. They've got a winning record here at home and they've outgained teams by an average margin of 349 to 286. I'm grabbing all those generous points.
|12-10-17||Eagles v. Rams -1||Top||43-35||Loss||-120||121 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA (10* GAME OF MONTH). Playing at one of the toughest environments in the league, the Eagles saw their run finally come to an end last week. Off that 24-10 setback, now playing on the west coast for the second straight week, I expect them to taste defeat again on Sunday. The Rams have been every bit as hot as the Eagles and check in off back-to-back impressive victories. While both teams have averaged an identical 30.1 ppg overall, the Eagles' average score dips to 25.2 when playing away from Philly. While the Eagles allow 20.7 ppg on the road, the Rams are allowing a mere 15.8 ppg at home. Expect homefield to prove significant, the Rams improving to 10-3.
|12-03-17||Eagles v. Seahawks +5.5||Top||10-24||Win||100||149 h 60 m||Show|
10* BEST BET on the Seattle Seahawks (8:30 EST). Seattle’s a game behind the Rams in the NFC West. Philadelphia has been amazing to this point, but this is a tough matchup. Nine wins in a row. Surely the Eagles have to be feeling pretty good about themselves at this point. Both teams come in off wins, with the Eagles handling the Bears 31-3 and Seattle surviving a potentially dangerous trap with a 24-13 road win in San Francisco. So far Carson Wentz and Philadelphia average 31.9 PPG and allow 17.4. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks average 24.2 PPG and allow 19.3. Wentz has looked unshakable to this point, but this is the opener of a tough three-game swing for the Eagles, with tough upcoming contests in LA and then in New York and suffice it to say, I’m finally expecting a letdown here. At 7-4 the Seahawks margin for error is extremely slim, especially considering how well the Rams are playing in their division. With a tough game in Jacksonville up next, I look for Seattle to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the closing moments. Grab the points.
|11-20-17||Falcons v. Seahawks -3||Top||34-31||Loss||-105||178 h 58 m||Show|
10* MAIN EVENT on the Seattle Seahawks. The Hawks come in off a hard-fought 22-16 win at division rival Arizona last week and are now 6-3 on the year. Both teams have looked horrible at times this season and really good in others. The Falcons looked great last weekend, handling a struggling Dallas team 27-7, but I think it’s primed for a letdown here in this tough atmosphere. The Falcons are a “dome” team and playing in the Pacific Northwest at this time of year is never an easy thing, even on the best of nights. Despite having some injuries to its defense (Richard Sherman), Seattle still holds a major advantage at home. With a three-game home stand starting next week and with division foe Tampa Bay up first, it’s also not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead. This spread could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Seahawks roll.
|11-19-17||Eagles v. Cowboys +3||Top||37-9||Loss||-100||154 h 5 m||Show|
10* MAIN EVENT on the Dallas Cowboys. It’s “do-or-die” for the Cowboys this weekend, who will almost assuredly be out of the running with a loss to division leader Philadelphia tonight. The Eagles are 8-1 and look primed for a playoff push, but I think the team has a letdown here. Chemistry is difficult to build and often a “bye” week can actually be detrimental to a team which had been firing on cylinders for weeks heading into its break. Dallas is banged up without many key pieces on both sides of the ball missing, but it still has a Top 10 QB in Dak Prescott and an elite offensive line. The run game has taken a hit with Ezekiel Elliot’s suspension, but the defense also remains a strength of the team. On paper, clearly Carson Wentz and company are the better team right now. But I’m not throwing in the towel yet on Prescott. With their season in the balance, I like the Cowboys to at the very least, keep this one competitive unitl the final moments. Grab the points.
|11-13-17||Dolphins +10 v. Panthers||Top||21-45||Loss||-135||35 h 23 m||Show|
10* ANNIHILATOR on Miami Dolphins. Carolina and Cam Newton in particular are both known for having “letdowns.” Other than two years ago when the Panthers made it to the Super Bowl, Netwon’s career in the NFL has showcased a ton of talent, but the lack of motivation to get over the hump at times. With their bye-week on deck, followed by two tough road games at the Jets and New Orleans, followed by home games against Minnesota, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and finishing off at Atlanta, there’s no question that this sets up as a letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. Miami QB Jay Cutler returned in last week’s loss to Oakland and looked brilliant, going 32 of 42 for 311 yards, three TD’s and no picks. The Fish only rank 31st in the league in total yards per game with 270.2, but the defense has been a strength, allowing only 315.4. The Panthers ranks 21st in total yards with 313.1 YPG, while ranked first in total yards allowed with 274.1. Carolina gets caught flat-footed and Cutler keeps his team competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.
|11-09-17||Seahawks -5.5 v. Cardinals||Top||22-16||Win||100||59 h 36 m||Show|
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are coming off a humbling 17-14 loss at home against the Redskins and will be eager to get back into the winners column after giving up the go-ahead TD with under a minute left to go in that one. The Cards mustered enough to beat the hapless 49ers 20-10 on the road last week with Drew Stanton under center, but clearly he’s going to have his hands full with Seattle’s top notched defensive unit. Seahawks’ kicker Blair Walsh uncharacteristically missed three FG’s in the first half from inside the 50 last week. The Hawks also uncharacteristically commited 16 penalties for 138 yards. QB Russell Wilson finished 24 of 45 for 297 yards, two TD’s and two picks. Overall Seattle ranks fourth in total offense with 378.6 YPG, while ranked 13th on the defensive side in allowing 322.5. Arizona averages 337.5 YPG and allows 349.8. Last week Arizona RB Adrian Peterson rushed 37 times for 159 yards. The defense was decent, but it did allow CJ Beathard to throw for 294 yards, while Stanton finished with 201 yards, two TD’s and a pick. The Seahawks have issues, there’s no question about it. On their offensive line, at RB and now with Earl Thomas gone from the secondary. But Seattle does have a Top 10 QB in Wilson. Stanton looked decent last Sunday, but I believe he takes a step back on the short week. Seahawks roll.
|11-05-17||Bucs +7 v. Saints||Top||10-30||Loss||-110||125 h 12 m||Show|
10* GAME OF YEAR on Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you’ve followed me for any length of time then you know that I consider myself one of the best in locating teams which are more “motivated” than their opponents. Divisional contests are always emotional and mean a lot to both sides for obvious reasons, but in this case I simply feel that the Saints are going to be caught complacent here after five straight victories. This is essentially a “do-or-die” for the 2-5 Bucs as well, who would then officially be looking ahead to next season with a loss today. Tampa isn’t going to roll over. Besides, New Orleans’ last two victories have been less than impressive, winning in Green Bay against Brent Hundley, before then having to hold on for a 20-12 win over Mitch Trubisky and the Bears last weekend. Tampa simply couldn’t get anything going against the Panthers in last Sunday’s 17-3 home loss. QB Jameis Winston had an uncharacterstically difficult time, finishing 21 of 38 for 210 yards, zero TD’s and two INT’s. WR Mike Evans though was decent with 60 yards on five catches and he should be able to have a much more productive day against the Saints’ secondary. Clearly it won’t be easy in facing Drew Brees. Note though that the veteran has been showing some signs of slowing down already as he was just 23 of 28 for 299 yards and no TD’s last week. Note the Brees struggled in two games against Tampa as well last year, posting a 1:3 TD:INT. As I mentioned off the top, I believe that Tampa is the much more motivated side and I expect it to play like it this afternoon. Winston hasn’t forgotten how to play football and he still has plenty of weapons to utilize. The Saints are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, but if looked at a little closer, it appears as if New Orleans is getting the job done with smoke and mirrors. Should be a nail-biter, I’m grabbing the points.
|11-02-17||Bills -3 v. Jets||Top||21-34||Loss||-105||34 h 34 m||Show|
10* ROAST on Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is on a mission at 5-2, sitting just a 1/2 game back of first place in the tough AFC East. The Bills just smoked Oakland 34-14 at home last Sunday and I think the team is once again being underestimated in this matchup. Admittedly, the Jets have surprised me this year with their competitiveness, but the team has now dropped three straight and it has to be completely devastated after stumbling 25-20 at home to the Falcons last weekend (after having a late lead.) In the first matchup of the year between the teams, Buffalo pretty much controlled all three phases and came away with the convincing 21-12 victory at home back on September 10th. LeSean McCoy, Tyrod Taylor and the rest of the Bills’ offense have only gotten better since then. McCoy was dominant in last week’s win, posting 151 yards on 27 carries with a score. Josh McCown has been a revalation for the Jets this year, as he has 1,840 passing yards, 12 TD’s (but also seven picks.) Somehow though he’s kept his team competitive despite the Jets owning the 26th ranked defense (361.4 YPG given up) and the 23rd-ranked offense (307.9 YPG.) This is an important divisional matchup, but Buffalo is the correct call here. The Bills are playing with a “chip on their shoulders” right now and it definitely appears as if New York has run out of gas at this point. Buffalo rolls.
|10-23-17||Redskins +4.5 v. Eagles||Top||24-34||Loss||-110||146 h 10 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Eagles won when these teams played at Washington earlier. I expect a much better effort from the revenge-minded Redskins in Monday's rematch. The Skins are 2-0 SU/ATS here the past couple of seasons, 14-9-2 ATS their last 25 here. While they did fail to cover at KC a couple of weeks ago, the Skins are still a healthy 5-2 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. In fact, they've thrived in that role for years, going 43-25 ATS their last 68. The Skins are also 5-2 ATS their past seven, when playing on the road with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. Meanwhile, during the same span, the Eagles are just 3-5 ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the same range. Since losing outright at KC, the Eagles have seen three of their last four decided by five or less, two of those decided by a field goal or less. In what could well be another close one, I'm grabbing all the points I can get.
|10-15-17||49ers v. Redskins -9.5||Top||24-26||Loss||-105||146 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). This is an extremely tough spot for the 49ers. Not very talented to begin with, the 49ers are off to an 0-5 start. To their credit, they've remained competitive; each of their last four losses have come by three or fewer points. Those type of losses catch up to a team though. Now, off an OT loss vs. the lowly Colts, they're stepping up in class and playing another early game, their third straight on the road. Note that SF is just 1-3 ATS (0-4 SU) its last four as a road underdog in the 7.5 to 10 range. Going back further finds the 49ers at 9-16 ATS (4-21 SU) their last 25 in that role. Meanwhile, the Skins come in refreshed, as they're off a bye. In their last game here, the Skins hammered Oakland by a 27-10 margin. With the schedule in their favor, I'm expecting another double-digit win here.
|10-12-17||Eagles v. Panthers -3||Top||28-23||Loss||-110||82 h 49 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* MAIN EVENT). Both teams are rolling. The Panthers are off back-to-back highly impressive road wins; the Eagles have won three straight, most recently a blowout of Arizona. I believe that the short week and home field advantage are going to work in the Panthers' favor here though. The Eagles, who have a divsional (Monday Night) showdown vs Washington on deck, are 3-4 ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, the past couple of seasons. During that span, they're also 3-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. The Panthers have no reason to "look ahead," as they've got the Bears on deck. The Panthers have been a "streaky" team in recent seasons. They're 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points; I look for them to improve on those stats Thursday night.
|10-09-17||Vikings -2.5 v. Bears||Top||20-17||Win||100||38 h 23 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). At 1-3 for a third consecutive season, it makes sense that the Bears are turning to Mitchell Trubisky. The decision to start the second overall pick certainly makes the game more interesting. That doesn't mean its going to help the Bears win the game though. Trubisky faces a tough task. Playing his first game, in front of the Monday night spotlight, while facing a dangerous division rival. (Even in a loss last week, the Vikings D allowed just 251 total yards.)
Unlike the Bears, who already have to realize the playoffs are an extreme longshot, the Vikes still have hope for their season. That said, already 0-1 within the division and facing GB next week, Minnesota knows it cant afford to slip up here.
While they lost vs. Detroit last week, the Vikes are 9-2 ATS their last 11, when off a division game. While the loss of Cook stings a little, as he was poised for a big season, I believe the Vikes are the more complete team right now. I'm laying the small number and expecting a win and cover.
|10-01-17||49ers v. Cardinals -6.5||Top||15-18||Loss||-107||54 h 5 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The 49ers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The fact that the Cards are off a nationally televised loss and playing on a short week, has kept this line lower than it easily could have been. The Cards are going to be in an angry mood and the winless 49ers should be the perfect opponent to take it out on. The Cards are 4-0 against the 49ers the past two seasons. They won the two games here by a combined score of 70-27. I believe the class difference is going to be evident and I'm expecting a blowout.
|09-28-17||Bears v. Packers -7||Top||14-35||Win||100||94 h 28 m||Show|
I'm playing on GB (10* NFC NORTH GAME OF MONTH). While they ulimately prevailed, the Packers had some trouble with a determined Bengals team on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Bears played with desperation and upset Pittsburgh. Those results didn't surprise me, as I won with both the Bengals and the Bears. This time, however, the Bears are on the road. The short week favors the Packers, who played here Sunday and don't have to go anywhere. The Bears were destroyed (29-7) in their lone road game. The Pack have long dominated this series and they beat the Bears by a score of 26-10 in last season's game here. I'm expecting another double-digit win on Thursday.
|09-25-17||Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5||Top||28-17||Loss||-115||176 h 58 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF MONTH). While I won with the Cowboys in their Week 1 win over the Giants, I was far more impressed with the Cardinals, than I was with Dallas, in Week 2. In case, you didn't see it, the Cowboys were crushed 42-17 at Denver.
To some, it may initialy sound funny to say I was "impressed" with the Cards. After all, they barely beat (16-13 in OT) the Colts, a team which was destroyed by the Rams in Week 1. Sometimes, having to rally from a defiicit, to pull out a close win, can be just what the doctor ordered. I believe that'll prove to be the case for Arizona. This is a talented Cardinal team, one which under-achieved last season. Off a Week 1 loss - and in danger of falling to the lowly Colts - this season already looked in jeopardy. However, the fact that they pulled off the comeback bodes well for them here.
The Cards have thrived as small home underdogs over the years. This is their home opener and I expect them to be at their best. I'll gladly take the points but am expecting an outright win.
|09-18-17||Lions v. Giants -3||Top||24-10||Loss||-110||49 h 38 m||Show|
I'm playing on NYG (10* MAIN EVENT). I successfully played against the Giants last week. However, that was a road game vs. the Cowboys. With all due respect to Stafford and co, a home game vs. the Lions isn't nearly as daunting a task. The Giants, who beat the Lions 17-6 here last December, are well aware of how competitive a league this is. With back-to-back road games on deck, they know they can ill afford to lose this one. Beckham is considered a game-time decision but the assumption is that he'll be ready to go. Even if less than 100%, he'll be a big help. Brandon Marshall did very little in Week 1 and figures to benefit from Beckam's return. Either way, I expect the ground game to also play an important role. In last year's win, the Giants outgained the Lions by a 114-56 margin on the ground. The Giants also entered that game having just played the Cowboys while the Lions were also off a victory. Including that result, the Lions are 6-10 on the road the past two seasons while the Giants are 10-6. That includes a 3-1 SU/ATS mark as home favorites of three or fewer points. Expect homefield to ultimately make the difference, another win and cover for the Giants.
|09-17-17||49ers v. Seahawks -12.5||Top||9-12||Loss||-110||144 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on SEATTLE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The 49ers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Hawks are much stronger on both sides of the ball, more experienced and (arguably) better coached. This is their home opener, their stadium arguably representing the most "hostile environment" (for visiting teams) in the league. The 49ers were outclassed 23-3 in their opener and that was at home. While the 49ers are 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range, the Hawks are 11-7 ATS (17-1 SU) the last 18 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. Hawks won 37-18 here last season and 29-13 the previous year. This one could easily be an even bigger rout.
|09-14-17||Texans v. Bengals -3||Top||13-9||Loss||-120||84 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on CINCINNATI (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams have faced each other each of the past two seasons. In each case, the Texans won a close one. I like the Bengals chances of avenging those losses on Thursday. Both teams struggled mightily in their opener. The Bengals lost 20-0 against Baltimore. Houston was beaten 29-7 by Jacksonville. I won't try and say one was better than the other. However, I do like the fact that the Bengals, 3-1 ATS their last four off a division loss, will be at home for the second straight week. Playing on a short week is rarely easy and that can particularly be the case early on the season. Travel can make it even more difficult. You may recall the Texans playing a Thursday night road game last September; they lost 27-0. They're 0-2 SU/ATS on Thursdays the past couple of seasons. The Bengals also played a Thursday game last September. Like they are here, they were at home for that one. They won 22-7. As of this writing, it still remains to be seen whether the Texans will start Savage or Watson. They might not have a choice, however, as Watson was seen limping after the loss to the Jags. (He did have a limited practice Monday.) Regardless of who is behind center for Houston, I like Dalton's chances of responding with a bounce-back effort better than either of the Houston pivots. Bengals get some payback.
|09-11-17||Saints v. Vikings -3||Top||19-29||Win||100||156 h 20 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* MAIN EVENT). With Adrian Peterson now wearing a Saints' uniform, the visitors are likely to be a popular pick. The general feeling is that the Saints' offense was already very good once again last season and that the addition of AP can only make them better. Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, its not the Saints' offense which is usually the problem. Their issues have long come on the other side of the ball. Last season's Sainst allowed an average of 28.3 ppg. That number climbed to 34.3 ppg their final three games of the season. The Vikings, on the other hand, allowed 19.2 ppg on the season, just 18 here at home. (The previous season, the Vikes allowed just 18.4 ppg while the Saints allowed 29.7.) The Saints have struggled in recent Septembers while the Vikes have thrived. The Vikes are 13-4 ATS their last 17 here. Expect superior defense and homefield advantage to ultimately make the difference.
|09-10-17||Giants v. Cowboys -3||Top||3-19||Win||100||134 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on DALLAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). These NFC rivals often seem to play on primetime. The fact that the Giants have had the edge in the series recently - and that many watched and remembered those games - has helped in bringing the line lower than it easily could have been.
Yes, the Giants did win (20-19) here last September, opening day. That was before the Cowboys really got rolling though. In fact, it was the first game for both Prescott and Elliott. Despite that inexperience, the Cowboys were in a position to win, at the end of the game.
Obviously, Prescott has learned a lot since then. His confidence has grown immensely and he's earned the trust of his team. Note that Prescott was extremely efficient in the preseason. He completed 18-of-22 passes, good for 219 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers.
Even factoring in that opening day result, the Cowboys were still much better at home than the Giants were on the road. Dallas finished 7-2 here, outscoring teams by an average score of 29.3 to 21.3. On the other hand, the Giants were 4-5 on the road, getting outscored by a 20.6 to 17.2 average score. Look for Prescott and co. to get some payback from last year, covering the small number along the way.
|02-05-17||Patriots v. Falcons +3||Top||34-28||Loss||-106||324 h 46 m||Show|
I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* MAIN EVENT. Some might be surprised to find me on the Falcons, after I successfully backed the Patriots in their victory over the Steelers. However, I believe this Atlanta team is the real deal and that its peaking at the right time.
While everyone knows about Brady and co, many haven't had much of a chance to get to know the Falcons. This is not the same Atlanta team from recent seasons. Its not even the same Atlanta team from earlier this season. This team is absolutely firing on all cylinders right now.
In case you didn't see the game, the Falcons didn't just beat Green Bay. They destroyed the Packers. Ryan, the likely league MVP, is playing as well as he ever has. Jones is an absolute beast and the running game is clicking. Meanwhile, the defense is currently far better than advertised.
Yes, the receivers dropped a few. However, the Falcon defense made Rodgers and the Packer offense look decidedly ordinary. Keep in mind that Green Bay had been virtually unstoppable for weeks.
Its true that Brady is one of the greatest of all time. Obviously, he's going to really want this one. This is a chance to further cement his legacy. I don't think he wants it any more than Ryan or the Falcons though. Ryan has tolled his career for this opportunity. The Atlanta fans are desperate for a championship and this is a team which desperately wants to give them one.
I'm well aware that Atlanta sports teams have struggled in championship games over the years. None of those teams were this year's Falcons though. So, its hardly fair to paint them with the same brush. After all, the Cubs didn't let all their negative history prevent them from winning the World Series. When its all said and done, I expect Ryan, Jones and co. to finish on top.
|01-22-17||Steelers v. Patriots -5.5||Top||17-36||Win||100||129 h 41 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND 10* PLAYOFF SIDE OF YEAR. This line could easily be higher. The Patriots were laying a touchdown when they visited Pittsburgh, in October. New England won by 11. True, Big Ben was out for that one. However, the Pats were also laying -7 when they hosted the Steelers last season. New England won by seven.
The Pats are on a mission right now. They've won each of their last four games by double-digits. Each of their last six victories has come by a minimum of seven points. With the exception of a 2--point win at Arizona, in Week 1 when Brady was out, every New England win has come by a minimum of five points. Thirteen of their last 14 wins have come by at least seven points.
While the Steelers are certainly deserving of respect, New England has the edge on both sides of the ball. The Pats average 27.9 ppg. The Steelers average 24.8 overall but just 21.2 ppg on the road. The Pats allow 15.6 ppg. The Steelers allow 19.7.
I like the fact that the Pats had a week off two weeks ago and that they played at home last week. The Steelers, on the other hand, will be playing their second road game in the past two weeks, their fourth game already in 2017.
The Pats are now 24-4 SU and 18-7-3 ATS their last 28 home games. That includes a 7-3-3 ATS (11-2 SU) record as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Ultimately, I expect homefield advantage and the superior defense to be the difference, the Pats pulling away for the win and cover.
|01-15-17||Steelers v. Chiefs -1||Top||18-16||Loss||-115||36 h 24 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC 10* GAME OF WEEK. With the pointspread essentially a non-factor, I'm backing the rested home team. While the Steelers are red hot, the same is true of the Chiefs. The Steelers won big when these teams met earlier. That was at Pittsburgh though. The Chiefs, 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they played with 'revenge,' earned the right to host Sunday's rematch. They won 23-13 when these teams played here last season.
Reid has been money over the years, when given extra time to prepare. The Chiefs are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three, with two or more week's worth of rest. Off this season's bye, the Chiefs went into Oakland and pounded the Raiders by a 26-10 score. He'll have the Chiefs better prepared to deal with Bell than they were for the first game. Having linebacker Justin Houston back - he wasn't around for the first meeting - will help.
The Steelers were solid on the road, going 5-3. They outscored teams by a modest 21.6 to 19.6 margin in those games. The Chiefs were better (6-2) at home though. In those games, they outscored teams by a much greater 23.9 to 15.7 average margin. As you can see with less than 16 ppg allowed, the KC defense has been tough to score against here. I expect that to again be the case.
To be sure, Bell and Brown give Rothlisberger a pair of deadly weapons to work with. Big Ben is a bit banged-up here though and the Chiefs' trio of Ware, Hill and Kelce figure to be every bit as dangerous. In the end, I expect homefield advantage combined with that extra week of rest to make the difference.
|01-14-17||Seahawks +4 v. Falcons||Top||20-36||Loss||-110||152 h 33 m||Show|
I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* MAIN EVENT. While they do have to travel across the country, the Seahawks are a battle-tested playoff machine which is peaking at the right time. They've been in this situation before and they'll be ready. Wilson does it all. He's calm and cool under pressure and he makes plays with both his arm and his feet. The running game got really going last week and the defense ranks among the best in the league.
While the Hawks thrived as underdogs this season, the Falcons were just 3-5 ATS at home. Both teams benefitted from the fact that they were in divisions where the other teams had down years. While the Hawks had an impressive win at New England, Atlanta didn't exactly dominate the other playoff teams it faced. They did beat the Raiders by seven early in the season, before Oakland really got rolling. However, they lost against the Chiefs and only beat the Packers by a point. They were fortunate to play all three of those games here.
You may recall that these teams also played a very close one against each other (at Seattle) earlier in the season. The Seahawks won that 10/16 game by a 26-24 margin. Speaking of close games, three of the Hawks' five losses were by six or fewer points. This one could also easily come down to the wire. In my opinion, getting more than a field goal with this Seahawk team is offering us excellent value.
|01-07-17||Lions v. Seahawks -7.5||Top||6-26||Win||100||132 h 56 m||Show|
I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Sunday night loss against the Packers was a real killer for the Lions. They gave it a good effort and left it all out on the field, but it wasn't enough. As a result, instead of staying right where they were and hosting the Giants, they now have to travel across the entire country, playing on a short week, and facing a talented playoff-tested team, at arguably the toughest venue in the league. Note that this will be the Lions' third road game in their past four games. The Hawks, on the other hand, haven't left the Pacific time zone for nearly a month.
While the Lions are below .500 on the road, the Hawks were 7-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average 28.4 to 17 margin in games here.
I believe that Seattle is better on both sides of the ball. The Seattle defense, in particular, has been much better than the Detroit defense recently. While the Hawks are allowing an average of 268.7 yards their past three games, the Lions are allowing an average of 374.3 their last three. Hawks roll.
|01-07-17||Raiders v. Texans -2.5||Top||14-27||Win||100||128 h 7 m||Show|
I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* ANNIHILATOR. I admit that I felt a little fortunate to win with the Raiders when they beat the Texans on MNF, earlier in the season. You may recall that one. Derek Carr led the Raiders, who were laying -6.5, to a fourth quarter comeback and they won by seven. While the line would have been adjusted, its still likely that I wouldn't have backed the Raiders if they didn't have Carr in that game. Its also likely that they wouldn't have won. As you likely know, the Raiders won't have Carr for this one. While the Texans have QB issues of their own, they've gotten used to winning "in spite of" their QB while the Raiders are accustomed to winning "because of" theirs. I believe that Carr's loss is going to be too much to overcome.
The earlier meeting was played in adverse conditions, in front of a hostile and pro-Raider crowd, at Mexico City. Including that loss, the Texans were just 2-6 away from home. However, they were a dominant 7-1 here at Houston, the best home record in the entire AFC. They got embarrassed (30-0!) in the Wildcard round here last season and I believe that they're going to be on a mission to erase the bad taste left in their mouths from that game. While the Texans were underdogs for the Mexico City game, they were favored by a field goal against the Raiders in the previous meeting, a 30-14 Texans' victory. I expect the Texans, who are a profitable 14-5-1 ATS (18-2 SU!) the last 20 times that they were laying points, to pull away for another win and cover here.
|01-01-17||Chiefs v. Chargers +4.5||Top||37-27||Loss||-110||28 h 57 m||Show|
I'm playing on SD 10* BB. I successfully played against the Chargers in last week's loss at Cleveland. At the time, I noted the following: "...While next week's divisional home game vs. KC, likely their last in SD, figures to be far more meaningful to the Chargers, this game should mean everything to the Browns..." "Next week's divisional home game vs. KC" is now upon us and I do indeed expect this game to be meaningful for the Chargers. Rivers isn't a quitter and this team has fought hard all season. They know they can hurt the Chiefs by beating them and I expect a highly motivated effort. True, Gordon is out. I'm not too worried about that though; Hillman is adequate. Admittedly, injuries on the offensive line are of more concern. The Chargers have been battling injuries all season long though and that hasn't prevented them from outscoring teams by a 28.1 to 25 margin here.
In their final home game last season, in what they thought might be their last game ever at SD, the Chargers routed the Dolphins by a 30-14 score. Afterwards coach McCoy had this to say: "What a day. There’s nothing like winning in front of your home fans. It was a great atmosphere out there today and a great team win…. The leadership on this football team, give them a lot of credit. It's been a tough year .. but, our leaders on our football team, they kept on grinding with everybody else."
I expect McCoy to again have his team ready to play. With the Chargers at 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range and also 3-1 ATS their last four in the 'revenge role,' I'm grabbing the points.
|01-01-17||Bears v. Vikings -6||Top||10-38||Win||100||25 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GOY. In Week 17 games such at this one, where both teams have been eliminated from postseason contention, I've found that the "more motivated" team covers the spread more often than not. In this case, I expect that to be the Vikings.
The Vikings got off to a promising start this season, but fell apart in the second half. Unlike the Bears, who are "evaluating young talent," they still believe that they've got a strong team. A win here won't fix things, but it will at least achieve a .500 record overall and a winning record at home. I believe that does mean something to the players.
The Vikings also figure to have a score to settle, as the Bears beat them 20-10, back on Halloween night. (Some of you may recall me winning a big play on the Bears in that one.) The Vikings were still 5-1 before that loss and know that if they'd won that game, they'd likely be in an entirely different position right now. Note that they're 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss.
On the other hand, the Bears have been playing out the string for some time now. They're bad on both sides of the ball and Barkley is coming off another terrible game at QB. In fact, he's now thrown eight INT's the past two games alone. While a road win would be nice, it would still do little to salvage a dismal season.
Playing at home should also provide the Vikes with some added motivation, as they'd like to reward the faithful with a victory. Motivation aside, the Vikes are just a much better team here than Chicago has been on the road. The Vikes are 5-2 ATS in games here, the Bears are 2-5 ATS away from Chicago. Minnesota has outscored teams here (slightly) while allowing less than 300 yards per game here. The Bears get outscored by an average of 11.4 points on the road (26.7 to 15.3) and allow nearly 400 yards per road game.
The Vikes, who hammered the Bears by a 38-17 margin here late last season, are 6-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons when off a division loss and 7-3 ATS off b2b losses overall. The Halloween game notwithstanding, the Vikes typically take care of business against weaker teams. They're 10-4 ATS (11-3 SU) their last 14 against sub-500 teams. Look for them to bounce back and avenge the earlier loss in a big way, improving to a lucrative 18-7 ATS their last 25 here at home.
|12-26-16||Lions v. Cowboys -6.5||Top||21-42||Win||100||38 h 9 m||Show|
I’m playing on DALLAS 10* MEGA PLAY. With the Cowboys already having clinched homefield advantage and the top spot, many are probably going to expect them to take their foot off the gas. Not me. Not this week. Not on a Monday Night home game, the day after Christmas. Rather, this is a chance for them to show the world just how good they are.
Jerry Jones had this to say on the subject of "taking it easy": "I know that in our 2007 season here with Wade Phillips, we had a great season and then we turned around and got into the playoffs and rested pretty good the last ballgame. And we ended up losing the first playoff game that we had with home-field bye all the way through."
While the Cowboys have been winning, they've arguably lacked a big late-season "statement win," the type that can really propel a team into the playoffs. I believe that they're catching the Lions, who I also played against last week, at the right time. The Lions know that they could really use a win tonight. However, they also know that they've got a huge showdown with the red hot Packers next week. Regardless of what the Lions do tonight, that game will be the one which decides who wins the NFC North.
The Lions, who are playing their second straight on the road, are 3-4 (2-5 ATS) away from Detroit. The Cowboys are 6-1 at home. They've outscored teams by more than a TD per game here this season (27.3 to 19.6) and I'm expecting them to provide us with a double-digit "statement" win on primetime.
|12-24-16||Bengals v. Texans -1||Top||10-12||Win||100||12 h 4 m||Show|
I'm playing on Houston 10* ME. Can the Texans win with Savage behind center? I believe they can. Keep in mind that the Texans beat the Bengals, at Cincy, last season when the Bengals were red hot. They did so with backup TJ Yates coming in to play QB and he hadn't thrown a pass for weeks. Dalton, who had been hot at the time, threw for only 187 yards and was sacked three times. He was intercepted once and didn't throw a TD. Unlike Yates in last season's game, Savage has the benefit of knowing that he's going to start and some preparation time.
The Texans have been winning with defense at home all season. They allow just 17.6 ppg here, to go along with a mere 286 yard per game. Not surprisingly, they've only been beaten once here. Off last week's tough loss against hated Pittsburgh and with their home finale against division rival Baltimore on deck, I feel the Bengals, who are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS on the road, are going to have a tough time here. I won with the Texans in last season's game and I'm backing them again tonight.
|12-24-16||Chargers v. Browns +4||Top||17-20||Win||100||22 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* GOM. Its true that the Chargers have been better than the Browns this season. Every team has. Being "better than the Browns" hasn't helped the Chargers much though. They still aren't going to the playoffs. And, they still aren't going to be returning to San Diego next season. That said, they can't be too thrilled about leaving So-Cal for a meaningless game at chilly Cleveland. The Chargers are banged-up at running back and receiver, as Gordon, Woodhead and Allen are all out. They represent just a small portion of the Chargers' current "bumps and bruises," as the complete injury list is lengthy, to say the least.
The Chargers, a west coast team playing an early game, have only two wins in seven road tries. Going back further finds them with just seven wins in 23 road games, the past few seasons. That includes a 0-1 ATS mark as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range.
While next week's divisional home game vs. KC, likely their last in SD, figures to be far more meaningful to the Chargers, this game should mean everything to the Browns. They don't want to finish the season without a win and they know that taking next week's game at Pittsburgh is likely going to be far more difficult than winning this one. Plus, they'd desperately love to "play Santa" for the home faithful. I'm grabbing the points.
|12-18-16||Bucs v. Cowboys -7||Top||20-26||Loss||-105||34 h 0 m||Show|
I'm playing on DALLAS 10 ME. I've successfully played against the Cowboys each of their last two games. So, some might be surprised to see me backing them here. Those were both difficult road games though. Back home, and off a rare loss, I expect them to bounce back in a big way. Note that while the Cowboys are 3-2 ATS their past five off a division loss, including a win/cover at Washington in Week 2, the Bucs are just 1-4 ATS their past five off a division win.
While the Bucs have admittedly been playing pretty well, the Cowboys still haven't lost to any team besides the Giants all season. In fact, no "non-divisional" team has visited here and been able to stay within single digits. The Cowboys beat the Ravens by 10, the Bears by 14 and the Bengals by 14. Back on National TV, I expect them to "make a statement" with another double-digit win.
|12-18-16||Lions v. Giants -3.5||Top||6-17||Win||100||26 h 14 m||Show|
I'm playing on NEW YORK 10* GOW. Both these teams have been playing well for quite a few weeks now. I won with the Giants last week and feel that they're offering excellent value again here. The weather is expected to be cold, windy and very possibly wet. Those type of conditions generally don't favor a "dome team" like the Lions at the best of times. However, its worse in this case, as Stafford has an injured middle finger on his throwing hand. That might not be as big an issue if the Lions had a reliable running game. However, they're also banged up at the running back position and last week, when they hit 114, was the first time in months (since Week 2) that the Lions gained more than 100 yards on the ground. By comparison, while the Giants managed only 93 yards on the ground against Dallas, they'd topped the 100 mark in three of their previous four games. So, while the running game has also been an issue for NY, the Giants have arguably been better in that department, in recent weeks than Detroit. Of course, having a healthy QB also helps. While the Lions are 3-3 on the road, the Giants are 6-1 at home. The Lions are 4-6 ATS their last 10 December games while the Giants are now 6-3-1 ATS their last 10. I'm laying the small number.
|12-11-16||Cowboys v. Giants +3||Top||7-10||Win||105||98 h 51 m||Show|
I'm playing on NYG 10* ME. I successfully played against the Cowboys at Minnesota last Thursday and I believe that this will prove to be another good spot to do so. Note that the Cowboys, who will be playing their second consecutive road game, are still just 7-10 ATS against teams with a winning record. After they lost against Pittsburgh last week, many people seem pretty down on the Giants. However, I'm not ready to write them off yet. Keep in mind that they'd won six straight before the loss at Pittsburgh. Thats a difficult venue and the Giants were playing the second of b2b on the road. They're still 5-1 here at home, the lone loss coming by two points.
As Eli Manning noted: "Hey, we're the only team to beat Dallas and we're going against 'em at home now, and we've been playing great at home. So this is a chance to prove that we are a good team and we are a playoff team."
The Giants were only getting a single point when they played at Dallas earlier. Now, despite playing at home and having an excellent record here, they're getting more points to work with. Thats noteworthy given that three of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by three points or less, two of those by a single point. In what easily could be another close one, I look for NY to improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times it played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range.
|12-11-16||Bengals v. Browns +5.5||Top||23-10||Loss||-110||71 h 2 m||Show|
I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* DIV GOY. Obviously, with a winless record in mid-December, the Browns have had an extremely disappointing season. The Bengals season has been arguably every bit as disappointing though. Unlike the Browns, who weren't expected to compete for the playoffs, the Bengals had high hopes this season. Instead, they find themselves all but mathematically playing out the string. The players know that even if they won every game the rest of the way, their chances are very slim. (As I undetrstand it, they'd need both the Ravens and Steelers to go 1-3, which is pretty difficult to imagine given that one of those teams will get a win when they face each other.) I don't think the Cincy players believe.
In these "meaningless" games, its been my experience that the "more motivated" team covers more often than not. In this case, I expect that to be Cleveland. The Browns desperately want a win and getting against an instate "rival," one which already beat them this season and which has embarrassed them here each of the past two seasons, would suit them just fine.
The Bengals, who will again be without AJ Green, have lost five straight on the road. Their lone road win came in Week 1 and that was by a single point. They're 0-6 ATS away from Cincinnati. A "revenge" home game vs. the Steelers next week offers far more reason for the Bengals to "get excited."
The Browns, who had last week off to recover and prepare for this game, were 5-3 ATS in the final four weeks of the regular season the past two years. Grab all the points you can get, but don't be surprised when they finally break through with their first win.
|12-11-16||Vikings v. Jaguars +3||Top||25-16||Loss||-100||71 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE 10*. I successfully backed the Vikings against Dallas. However, they were at home and "getting points" in that game. Now, they're on the road and laying points, a situation/role I feel that they'll struggle with. Keep in mind that the Vikes still lost (by two) against Dallas. They've now dropped six of their last seven, going 0-4 on the road, during that skid. The Jags have remained competitive with five straight losses coming by 10 points or less. With the Vikings averaging just 16.7 ppg and 281.5 ypg on the road, I look for the Jags, motivated to give the home fans a win, to earn AT LEAST the cover.
|12-04-16||Panthers v. Seahawks -6.5||Top||7-40||Win||100||151 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* GOW. I respect the Panthers and I won with them last week. That was a much different setup though, as they were still mathematically alive for the playoffs and as they were catching the Raiders on a short week and off a game in Mexico City. This time, however, they'll face an angry Seattle team which is playing on a 'normal' week and coming off an upset loss. Perhaps even more important, the Panther players no longer believe that the playoffs are possible. It was still an extreme longshot, even if they won last week. However, there was still no hope. Now, that hope is essentially gone. Even winning out would require a major collapse from every one. That knowledge, that the season is over and has been a major disappointment, is going to make putting in the necessary work difficult. While the Panthers are 3-5 ATS their last eight December games, the Hawks are 7-1 ATS their last eight, when playing in December. While they knocked the Panthers out of the playoffs two seasons ago, a 31-17 win here at Seattle, the Hawks haven't forgotten last year's playoff loss at Carolina. They'll be all too happy to kick the Panthers while they're down, covering the spread along the way.
|12-04-16||Redskins v. Cardinals -2.5||Top||23-31||Win||100||147 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on ARIZONA 10*. Sandwiched in between a tough Thanksgiving Day loss at Dallas and another divisional game (Phialdephia) up next, I believe this will prove to be a difficult spot for the Redskins. The Cardinals have underachieved all season but this is still a very dangerous team. As disappointing as a season as its been, the Cards are still outscoring teams by a 21.8 to 12.7 margin here at home. They're outgaining teams by a commaning 410.3 to 287.5 margin, in terms of total yards, in games played here. The Cards are still mathematically alive for the playoffs and believe that if they "win out" that nine wins will get them to playoffs. Arians isn't thinking that far ahead but I do expect him to have his team fully ready to go to win this one. The Cards coach had this to say: "You just take them one at a time. I think once we win one, we’ll be fine. I think we'll add them up at nine and I think you have a great shot still because we’re going to be playing some of those teams that are going to be in the same spot we're in. We just have to win one." Look for the Cards, 5-0 SU/ATS their last five against teams from the NFC East, to do just that, covering the small number along the way.
|12-04-16||Broncos v. Jaguars +4.5||Top||20-10||Loss||-108||143 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE 10* BEST BET. The Broncos are off a 30-27 Sunday night loss against division rival KC, the defense getting shredded in the process. Some Denver bettors might feel that was a "bad beat," as the Broncos were winning and KC rallied to win in OT. Either way, it was a tough loss, the type that can be difficult to immediately bounce back from. Note that the Broncos have now given up 30 points in two of their past three games, an average of 27.7 ppg in those three overall. Also, note that they're just 3-9-3 ATS their last 15 off a division game. The Jags continue to be competitive every week. Even if/when they do get down, they don't quit fighting. They covered at Buffalo last week and that marked their fourth straight game which was decided by seven or fewer points. Since their impressive 4-0 SU/ATS start, the Broncos have been very ordinary, going 3-4 SU/ATS, including 1-2 SU/ATS on the road. That lone road victory came by two points. Look for them to have their hands full, the Jags giving them all they can handle the entire way, once again.
|12-01-16||Cowboys v. Vikings +3.5||Top||17-15||Win||100||83 h 32 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* MAIN EVENT. It goes without saying that the Cowboys are having an outstanding season. I believe this will prove to be a week that they stumble though. The Vikings are one of the top defenses in the league and they've been particularly stingy here at home. In five games here, they're 4-1 outscoring teams by a 23.6 to 16.6 margin. Their lone loss here came in OT and they've held visiting teams to a mere 283.4 yards per game here. Note that they're 9-2 ATS the last 11 times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range and that includes a 3-0 ATS mark as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. While Sam Bradford isn't going to be mistaken for Tom Brady anytime soon, I expect him to do whats necessary to give the Vikes a chance to win. He's hopeful to get his favorite target (Diggs) back, as Diggs (questionable) returned to practice on Monday. Note that in his last game against the Cowboys, while playing with the Eagles, Bradford was 25-of-36 (69.4%) while throwing for 295 yards. He had a TD without throwing an interception, giving him a passer rating of 103.4. Bradford started off slowly but led the Eagle offense to four scores in five full possessions in the second half and overtime. Bradford would eventually win the game by connecting with Matthews in OT. That was at Dallas, too. While another outright win won't surprise, I'm expecting AT LEAST a cover.
|11-27-16||Chiefs +3.5 v. Broncos||Top||30-27||Win||100||153 h 54 m||Show|
I'm playing on KC 10* GOW. The road team won both meetings in this series last season. The Broncos won 31-24 at KC in September. Then, playing at Denver, the Chiefs returned the favor. Listed as +3.5 point underdogs, the Chiefs won by a score of 29-13. It was never close, as KC led 19-0 at halftime. While it was more the defense that won it, that was still a big win for Alex Smith as he'd previously had trouble beating Manning. Now 2-0 ATS their last two visits here. Smith and the Chiefs should feel right at home. The stats from both teams are very similar. The Broncos average 23.9 ppg, while KC averages 22.2. Both teams allow just under 19 ppg. KC allows 18.7, Denver allows 18.9. Even with a loss last week, the Chiefs are still 5-1 their last six games. That lone loss came by two points. While the Chiefs have allowed 19 or fewer points in four straight games the Broncos have allowed 19 or more in three straight, including 30 and 23 their last two. I'm taking the points.
|11-27-16||Panthers +3.5 v. Raiders||Top||32-35||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA 10* BEST BET. While I won with the Raiders last week, this is a tough spot for them. First of all, even though I had them, I don't mind saying that the were Raiders were a little fortunate to leave Mexico with a win and cover, as they didn't play particularly well for most of the game. Regardless, they're now playing on a short week after just having played outside the country, in a very difficult/challenging environment. They'll be facing a Carolina team which is desperate, talented and playing with extra rest, having played last Thursday. As of this writing, most shops have an O/U line of 49.5. With the Raiders just 1-10 ATS the last 11 times they played a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or higher, I'm taking the points with Carolina.
|11-27-16||Rams +7.5 v. Saints||Top||21-49||Loss||-113||117 h 13 m||Show|
I'm playing on LA 8*. While they still came up short, I like the way that the Rams played with Goff under center. While the offense admittedly still struggled, I liked what I saw from Goff. He wasn't asked to do too much - but he executed and did what was asked of him. Goff was playing with a wet ball but didn't turn the ball over, never lost his composure, and gave the Rams a chance to win. Fisher said afterwards: "I'm really proud of him." As for Goff, I agree when he said: "Game experience is priceless." While its only one game, I expect Goff to have benefitted from the experience of being involved in a close game. Weather won't be a factor this time and he'll be playing at a venue where visiting teams have averaged 32.6 points and 406 yards per game. The Rams, who have seen five straight games decided by seven or fewer points, are 2-0-2 ATS against other teams with a losing record, going 8-3-3 ATS their last 14. With the Saints, who have seen six of seven decided by six or less, just 7-17-1 ATS the last 25 times that they were favored, I'm grabbing the points.
|11-24-16||Steelers v. Colts +9||Top||28-7||Loss||-115||38 h 22 m||Show|
I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS 10* BEST BET. Obviously, the Colts would prefer to have Luck under center. However, I believe that they're also capable of winning with Tolzien. Chuck Pagano had this to say of Tolzien: "Scott’s got a ton of ability. I have all the confidence in the world in this guy. This organization does." Dwayne Allen added: "There's a reason why he's our backup. The coaching staff, the GM and everyone in this locker room believes he has what it takes if the starter isn’t available to go out there and help us win games." Remember, the Colts let go a capable backup in Matt Hasselbeck, who had posted a 5-3 record as a starter last year, signing Tolzien instead. We've seen plenty of teams win without their star QB's - the Pats without Brady, the Steelers have been doing it off and on for years when Big Ben goes down - and we saw the Cots win without Luck last year. It can be done. Tolzien's got a veteran back at his disposal along with capable options at receiver and tight-end. He'll face a Steeler defense which has proven vulnerable at times and a Steeler team which is just 2-3 on the road overall. Both teams are off a divsion win. That should favor the Colts, as should the short week. The Steelers 1-5-3 their last nine off a division win. Meanwhile, the Colts are 7-3 ATS their last 10 off a divsion win along with 9-1 their last 10 in November. Take the points but don't be surprised when Tolzien and the Colts step up and score the outright win.
|11-24-16||Vikings +3 v. Lions||Top||13-16||Push||0||73 h 47 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Lions upset the Vikings at Minnesota a few weeks ago. I expect the Vikes to return the favor Thursday afternoon. The Vikes got back on track last time out, beating a talented Arizona team. While that was at home, its worth noting that the Vikes are a profitable 14-7 ATS their last 21 road games, including 12-1 ATS their last 13 road games when the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 45. Including the win at Minnesota, the Lions have won b2b games. They're only 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were off consecutive victories though. While the Lions may possess a slight edge on the offensive side of the ball, the Vikes should have a solid edge on the defensive side of the ball. They allow 17.6 ppg and 306.9 ypg. The Lions allow 358.6 ypg and 22.5 ppg. With the Vikes at 7-2 ATS the last nines that they attemped to avenge an earlier loss, I'm grabbing the points.
|11-21-16||Texans v. Raiders -5||Top||20-27||Win||100||178 h 39 m||Show|
I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* MNF MAIN EVENT. The Raiders are for real. This is their chance to prove that to the world (and a pro-Raider Mexico city crowd) and I expect them to do exactly that. The Raider offense is proving multi-dimensional and that it can beat teams in a variety of ways. Two weeks ago, they dominated the Broncos on the ground. The previous week, Carr threw for more than 500 yards. While the Raiders average 28.6 ppg and 417 ypg on the road, Houston averages just 11.5 ppg and 260.5 ypg on the road. I don't believe that the Texans, who are also soft (ranked #26) against the run, will be able to keep up. With this game being played on foreign soil, I like the fact that the Raiders have had an extra week to prepare. Note that they're 2-0 ATS their last two off a bye. The Texans, who threw for only 92 yards in last week's win at Jacksonville, are 0-2 SU/ATS off a division win this season, losing 31-13 and 27-9. More of the same Monday night.
|11-20-16||Cardinals v. Vikings -2.5||Top||24-30||Win||100||48 h 55 m||Show|
I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF WEEK. These teams faced each other on a Thursday night, at Arizona, a little less than a year ago. The Cardinals were favored by 10 points. However, the Vikings gave them all they could handle, losing by only three. That was an Arizona team which had been dominating opponents; the Cards came in at 10-2 and off a 27-3 victory the previous week. The Vikings, on the other hand, were off a 38-7 loss, their second loss of 17 or more points, in their previous three games and missing four defensive starters. This year's game sets up much differently. Perhaps most importantly, the game is at Minnesota. The Vikings are 3-1 here, outscoring teams by a 22 to 14.7 margin. Meanwhile, the Cards are 1-2 on the road, getting outscored by a 28 to 23.7 margin. The Cards aren't coming in on a high like last year either. They barely survived against SF last week and their previous two games resulted in a 10-point loss and a 6-6 tie. While the Vikings are again struggling overall, I already mentioned that they're still tough to beat here at home. They're also in the middle of a battle for the division title, as the NFC North remains up for grabs. Last year's game came down to the final play. The Cards went up by a field goal with less than two mins left. With only five seconds left, well within FG range, the Cards forced a fumble to seal the win. As they did last season, look for the Vikings to rise to the occasion. Look for them to finish on top this time, improving to 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points.
|11-17-16||Saints v. Panthers -3||Top||20-23||Push||0||58 h 19 m||Show|
I'm playing on CAROLINA 10* GOM. Both teams are off very tough losses last week. One could argue that the Panthers' loss was more "devasating" due to the fact that they're so far behind in the division standings. The Saints' loss was arguably "tougher to take" though. With both teams off those type of losses and both playing on a short week, I believe that playing at home will prove to be a signifcant advantage. All that aside, this is absolutely a "must win" game for the Panthers. Lets not forget that this is the same team that dominated all season last year. They're still very capable. Carolina is still outgaining teams by a commanding 387.8 to 284.8 margin on this field. I expect Newton and co. to have a big day against a Saints defense which is allowing (slightly) more than 400 yards per game. Excluding a few pushes, the Panthers are a profitable 61-39 ATS the last 100 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss, 7-3 ATS their last 10 in that situation. Don't count them out quite yet.
|11-13-16||Seahawks +7.5 v. Patriots||Top||31-24||Win||100||34 h 42 m||Show|
I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* MAIN EVENT. These teams played an extremely close game against each other in the Super Bowl. I won't be surprised if this one also "comes down to the wire." That makes getting this large number of points very enticing. Wilson is getting healthier and its showing. He (and Graham) had his best game of the season last time out. While they've lost a couple of games, the Hawks have yet to lose one by more than six points. Of course, it helps matters when your defense allows just 14.3 ppg on the road. Look for them to give the Pats all they can handle here, earning AT LEAST the cover.
|11-13-16||Cowboys v. Steelers -2.5||Top||35-30||Loss||-109||30 h 50 m||Show|
I'm playing on PITTSBURGH 10* NON-CONF GOM. Admittedly, the Cowboys are having a great season. Since a narrow 1-point loss in their opener, all they've done is reel off seven straight wins, covering the number in all seven of those. This is the first time, however, that they'll be playing the second of b2b road games. They'll be taking on a dangerous Pittsburgh team with a coach and QB who know how to win, a team with an elite back and wide receiver. As the games get bigger, this Pittsburgh team tends to step up its leve of play, particularly against other quality opponents. In fact, over the past two seasons, the Steelers were 6-1-3 ATS (8-2 SU)in 10 games against winning teams, in the "second half" of the season. Keep in mind that the Steelers are still 3-1 SU/ATS at home, going 12-7-2 ATS (15-6 SU) here the past 2+ seasons. That includes a 6-1 SU/ATS mark as home favorites of three or fewer points. I expect them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats Sunday afternoon.