|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-15-18||Cincinnati +5 v. Mississippi State||59-70||Loss||-108||21 h 51 m||Show|
A pair of teams with one loss each meet here on Saturday as Cincinnati plays at Miss State. Cincinnati is 9-1 S/U and 6-4 ATS. The Bearcats only loss so far came on opening day when they lost at home to Ohio State, 56-64 as 4.5-point favorites. Since then, it's been nine straight wins including victories over UNLV, Ole Miss and last game vs Xavier, 62-47. Miss State is 8-1 S/U and 4-5 ATS. The Bulldogs have won five straight after their only loss to Arizona State, 67-72. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they have not done all that well vs the numbers, going 2-4 ATS in their last six games. My numbers have this game a toss-up, but the oddsmakers made Miss State a 5-point favorite. I'm taking the points here with Cincinnati.
|12-15-18||Middle Tennessee v. Toledo -14.5||62-84||Win||100||19 h 20 m||Show|
Middle Tennessee State having a rough go of it thus far this season at 3-7 S/U and 0-8 ATS. That's right the Blue Raiders have yet to cover a spread in eight tries this season. In addition, they are 0-6 ATS in their last six away games. They are coming off a home drubbing at the hands of Murray State, 42-64 as 4.5-point dogs. Toledo off to a very good start this year at 9-1 S/U and 5-4 ATS. The Rockets only loss coming at Wright State back in mid-November, 74-84. The oddsmakers made Toledo about a 14-point chalk here. My numbers say that is way too low. Toledo should have not trouble covering this spread on Saturday. Play Toledo.
|12-15-18||Penn State v. NC State -3.5||78-89||Win||100||14 h 21 m||Show|
Reason: Boardwalk Classic here from Atlantic City, NJ. The 8-1 North Carolina State Wolfpack takes on the 5-4 Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State has lost two of their last three games and is coming off a win over Colgate, 76-65. However, the failed to cover the 15-point spread in that game. They have lost three straight to the spread and four of their last five games. NC State has just one loss and that came at the hands of Wisconsin, 75-79. The Wolfpack did cover that game though and has covered three straight and six of eight. NC State just 3.5-point favorite here today. My numbers have this game as a 12-point NC State tilt. I have to go with my own in this spot. I'm taking NC State.
|12-15-18||Rutgers +6.5 v. Seton Hall||66-72||Win||100||14 h 20 m||Show|
Rutgers brings a 5-4 record into today's game at Seton Hall. The Scarlet Knights have lost three straight games and are 1-2 ATS their last three. The Seton Hall Pirates are also 5-4 S/U as they come into this game. Just three games left until they enter conference play. The Pirates have won two-straight games and are coming off a big home win over Kentucky, 84-83 in OT as 7-point dogs. That could be an issue here for the Pirates. Seton Hall could be in for a big letdown today. The Scarlet Knights are 14-6-1 ATS their last 21 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. My number has this game closer to a pick and with that big Kentucky win, look for a Seton Hall letdown today. Play Rutgers.
|12-12-18||San Diego +8.5 v. Oregon||55-65||Loss||-109||7 h 3 m||Show|
San Diego off to an excellent start at 8-2 S/U and 6-3 ATS. The Toreros have been a great covering road team, evidenced by their 21-9-1 ATS mark in their last 31 away games. In addition, they have done well vs winning teams too, posting a 13-6 ATS mark the last 19 times they faced an opponent with a 60% win mark or better. The Oregon Ducks are 5-3 S/U and 4-4 ATS. The Ducks are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall. They lost at home to Texas Southern 84-89 and at Houston 61-65 in two of their last three games. San Diego getting 8-points here tonight is too many for me to pass on. Take San Diego.
|12-12-18||Murray State +2 v. Southern Illinois||80-52||Win||100||5 h 4 m||Show|
Murray State comes into tonight's contes with a 5-1 S/U and 5-0 ATS mark. The Racers are a good covering team; 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 vs the Missouri Valley; 6-1 their last seven road games vs a winning tea; 5-0 ATS their last five non-conf games. Southern Illinois also off to a good start at 7-3 S/U and ATS. My numbers show me that Murray State should be the favorite in this game and the oddsmakers have made Southern Illinois the chalk. That means I'm on the dog here with Murray State.
|12-11-18||Georgia Southern v. UCF -10||88-95||Loss||-105||7 h 47 m||Show|
Georgia Southern off a win at Mercer, 89-74. That win snapped a two-game losing streak and brings their record to 6-2 S/U on the season and 5-2 ATS. The one issue for the Eagles is that they have not done well against winning teams, evidenced by their 4-9 ATS mark vs .600 teams and above. That's just what they face here today in Central Florida. The Knights are 7-2 both S/U and ATS this season. The Knights are now in the midst of a five-game home stand. Central Florida is now 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs non-conference teams and 37-16 ATS in their last 53 home games. I like the home team here today. Play Central Florida.
|12-07-18||Nevada -6 v. Arizona State||72-66||Push||0||9 h 2 m||Show|
Matchup here of ranked and unbeaten teams as No 6 Nevada (8-0 S/U) plays at No 20 Arizona State (7-0). This game being played in Los Angeles in the Hall of Fame Classic. ASU has not covered its last two games vs Nebraska Omaha and Texas Southern. The Sun Devils haven't done well against teams with a winning straight-up record, evidenced by their 4-12-2 ATS mark their last 18 tries. Nevada has been a major power this season. Not only are they 8-0 S/U, but they have covered six and lost just one vs the number. Their lone spread loss coming in a tournament game against Tulsa where they failed to cover the 14-point line. Still, Nevada has been good to bettors, going 39-16-4 ATS their last 59 games against teams with a winning straight up record. Nevada is the real deal while I'm not convinced yet with ASU. Take Nevada here and lay the points.
|12-07-18||NC-Greensboro -12 v. Elon||75-74||Loss||-115||4 h 3 m||Show|
UNC Greensboro off a loss to Kentucky, 61-78. However, UNCG still has a nice 7-2 S/U record and 4-2 ATS mark. The Spartans are now 5-0 ATS in their last five vs the Colonial Athletic Conference. They are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Elon comes into this contest at 3-6 S/U and 2-5 ATS. The Phoenix have lost two straight home games both S/U and ATS to Furman and Boston University. Elon's only wins coming against Central Penn College and Milligan, both small basketball schools. Elon has not been good at covering, evidenced by their 5-17 ATS the last 22 games, 0-6 ATS their last six home games and 2-6 ATS their last eight vs the Southern Conference. Greensboro the class of this matchup. Lay the points here with UNC Greensboro.
|12-05-18||San Francisco v. California +6.5||Top||79-60||Loss||-107||8 h 50 m||Show|
San Francisco in a bit of a tough spot here having played not long again in that Belfast Tournament. They had to make the very long trip from Ireland back to the West Coast and have to be jet lagged still. Now they have to move up in class to play a PAC-12 school in Cal. San Francisco was 7-0 before they lost to Buffalo in that tournament, 81-85 as 4.5-point dogs. Cal is just 2-5 S/U and ATS this season with their two wins coming against Hampton and Santa Clara. I don't think Cal is the better team between these two, at least this early, but with San Fran in this bad spot I look for Cal to win tonight or at least cover the 6-point dog line. Take Cal.
|12-05-18||Middle Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -14.5||51-79||Win||100||4 h 20 m||Show|
Middle Tennessee State (MTS) is 3-5 S/U and 0-6 ATS to start the season. The Blue Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last five overall road games. Vanderbilt is 5-2 S/U and 2-4 ATS this far. Vandy is off a tournament loss to NC State, 65-80. This is the kind of matchup where my numbers come into play and my numbers have Vandy a bigger favorite then the points they are laying tonight. It's a tall order, but I look for the Commodores to cover this one. Play Vandy.
|12-05-18||Ohio State -5.5 v. Illinois||77-67||Win||100||4 h 50 m||Show|
Ohio State is off to a 7-1 S/U and 5-3 ATS start. The Buckeyes only loss coming at home against Syracuse a couple of games ago, 62-72. The Buckeyes will have 10 days off after tonight's contest, so don't look for them to look past this contest. Illinois is not doing well, off to a 2-7 S/U and 3-6 ATS start. The Illini have lost two straight games including their last at Nebraska, 60-75. Today's game being played at Chicago, so it's a neutral site. Illinois is just 2-5 ATS on the last seven neutral sites. Buckeyes laying just 5.5-points here on this neutral court is too good a value for me to pass on. Play Ohio State.
|12-04-18||Wofford +16.5 v. Kansas||47-72||Loss||-107||6 h 53 m||Show|
Wofford brings its 6-2 record tonight to Kansas tonight to face the Jayhawks. Wofford has won four straight games including a 20-point win over South Carolina. They also played to just 11 points of North Carolina and 11 points to Oklahoma. In fact, they missed covering both of those games by just 2 points or one point. They are 4-2 ATS, but could easily be 6-0 ATS if not for those two close losses. Kansas is 6-0 S/U and 3-3 AST on the season. The No 2 Jayhawks laying 16.5-points here tonight. Wofford is now 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games. I think this is too many points, especially when my own power lines has it below 10. I'm taking a very good Wofford team to stay close in this one.
|12-04-18||Indiana v. Penn State -2.5||64-62||Loss||-115||5 h 53 m||Show|
Indiana (6-2 S/U, 2-5 ATS) visits Penn State in a Big 10 clash today. While Indiana has a good record at 6-2, they have lost five straight to the spread. That includes a 21-point loss to Duke as 15-point dogs. In fact, the Hoosiers are now 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. Penn State is coming off a loss at Maryland, 59-66 as 6.5-point dogs, just missing the cover. They are now 3-3 ATS vs the number. Still, the Nittany Lions have done well in the Big 10, going 10-4 ATS their last 14 vs the conference. In addition, they are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 overall. Indiana also may be without one of their best today in Forward Juwan Morgan (knee) who is averaging 16.3 pts per game. With or without Morgan, I like the Nittany Lions here tonight.
|11-30-18||Wagner v. American -8||Top||64-58||Loss||-105||5 h 7 m||Show|
American brings a 4-1 record into tonight's contest. American is also 4-0 ATS. Their only loss came in game two at Northweastern, 51-63. Wagner looks to snap a two game losing streak tonight. Wagner lost at home to New Jersey Tech, 60-71 and then at home to Rider, 65-89. In fact, they are just 1-2 at home this season and 1-2 on the road. What I like about an Extra game like this is that the oddsmaker can't make a solid number on every game and this is an example. American just 8-point chalk here tonight and my own numbers have them closer to 20. That's a big edge for me and ulitmately you. Play American.
|11-28-18||Purdue +4 v. Florida State||72-73||Win||100||8 h 55 m||Show|
Both of these clubs enter tonight's contest at 5-1 S/U. Purdue is also 4-2 ATS. The Boilermakers have been favored in every game so far this season. This looks to be their first big test of the season. Florida State lost its first game last time out in a tourney game against Villanova, 60-66 as 2.5-point favorites. The Seminoles had to go to OT to beat LSU the game before that, 79-76. The Seminoles are just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. My numbers show me this line just too high for FSU to be laying. I'll take the dog here, play Purdue.
|11-28-18||Northern Iowa v. Utah State -11||Top||52-71||Win||100||8 h 40 m||Show|
Northern Iowa struggling a bit to a 3-3 S/U record to start their season. The Panthers are now 5-16 ATS their last 21 non-conference games. The are also 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 road games and 2-5 ATS vs the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Utah State comes into tonight's game at 5-1 S/U and 4-1 ATS. The Aggies only loss so far coming last time out vs Arizona State, 82-87. The Aggies are now 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games and 8-2 ATS vs the Missouri Valley conference. My line is pretty much double what the oddsmakers have put here tonight. My top play of the day is on Utah State
|11-28-18||Bradley v. IUPU-Indianapolis +3.5||73-85||Win||100||6 h 39 m||Show|
Bradley Braves off to a 6-1 S/U start and 3-3 ATS mark. The Braves haven't really played anyone other than Penn State, whom they beat 59-56 as 6-point dogs. Indiana Purdue is 4-2 S/U and 6-0 ATS. The Jaguars are now 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games and 4-0-2 ATS vs non-conference opponents. Bradley is just 3-11 ATS in its last 11 road games. Bradley installed as the favorite here, but numbers show that IU Purdue should be the chalk. I'm taking the home team here. Play Indiana-Purdue.
|11-27-18||East Tennessee State +4 v. Georgia Southern||69-64||Win||100||17 h 28 m||Show|
East Tennessee State brings a four game win streak into this game. The Buccaneers are now 12-3-2 ATS their last 17 road games and 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games. Georgia Southern brings a 5-0 S/U and 4-0 ATS record into tonight's game. The Eagles haven't played in nine days, which could find them rusty here tonight after such a long layoff. This one promises to be a good matchup between two evenly matched teams. I like the points though with the Bucs as they have been one of the road covering teams. Play East Tennessee State.
|11-26-18||Santa Clara v. California -7.5||66-78||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
Two teams in desperate need of a win meet today as 1-4 Santa Clara takes on their neighbor 1-3 California. Santa Clara won its first game of the year last time out over San Jose, 71-63. That snapped a four game losing streak which included a 17-point loss at home to Prairie View A&M. Cal has lost two straight, to St Johns and Temple. The Bears are 2-2 ATS on the season. Santa Clara is now just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs non-conference opponents. Santa Clara moves up in class here today as they play a PAC 12 team and that will be tough considering Santa Clara couldn't even beat Prairie View. I'll lay the points here with Cal.
|11-26-18||Nebraska +3.5 v. Clemson||68-66||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
A pair of 5-1 teams clash here today as Nebraska takes on Clemson. Nebraska has a 3-1-1 ATS mark and is coming off a 73-49 win over Western Illinois though they pushed the 24-point line. The team's one loss was a recent tourney game vs Texas Tech, 52-70. Clemson maybe 5-1 S/U, but hey are just 1-4 ATS on the season. The Tigers lost last time out vs Creighton, 82-87. The Huskers are now 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs non-conference teams and 8-2 ATS their last 10 on the road. Nebraska also has a 6-1 ATS mark vs the ACC and is 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 overall games. Meanwhile, Clemson is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs the Big 10 and 1-5 ATS their last 6 at home. Nebraska has been a great spread team and that's something I'm not going against here tonight. Play Nebraska.
|11-25-18||Miami-FL -5.5 v. Seton Hall||81-83||Loss||-105||12 h 38 m||Show|
The Wooden Legacy Final Round here from Fullerton, CA has Miami Florida facing off against Seton Hall. Miami is 5-0 S/U and 2-2 ATS so far on the season. The Canes have beat Lasalle and Fresno State in this tournament, failing to cover their last game vs Fresno as a 8.5-point favorite. Seton Hall is 3-2 S/U and has won both games of the tourney both S/U and ATS. Seton Hall has covered both games in the tourney after failing to cover any of their first three games. Miami is a 5.5-point favorite here today. My own numbers have the Canes at least a 9-point favorite. I'm taking the undefeated Canes on Sunday. Play Miami Florida.
|11-25-18||Villanova v. Florida State -2||66-60||Loss||-105||2 h 7 m||Show|
Advocare Invitational final round action here from Orlando Florida as Florida State takes on Villanova. Villanova comes into this contest 4-2 S/U and 3-2 ATS. The Wildcats have won two straight in the tournament, beating Canisius and then Oklahoma State, getting the cover against both. Florida State is a perfect 5-0 S/U and 3-2 ATS on the season. The Seminoles are 2-0 in this tourney, beating UAB in the opener and then going into OT to beat LSU in the last game, 79-76. They failed to cover the 4-point spread vs LSU. The Seminoles are now 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 non conference games. FSU just a 2-point favorite here today while my own numbers make them a 9-point chalk here today. Take Florida State.
|11-24-18||Colorado -4.5 v. Air Force||93-56||Win||100||7 h 41 m||Show|
Colorado looks to improve to 3-1 today with a win over their neighbors from the South, Air Force. The Buffaloes started with a pair of wins and then lost last time out at San Diego, 64-70 as 4-point dogs. Meanwhile, Air Force has just two wins and three losses to start the season. The Falcons are off a loss to High Point, 62-69 as a 1-point favorite. Their only two wins coming against J&W Denver and South Dakota. Colorado a 5-point favorite here today and once again I rely heavily on my own power lines which have the Buffaloes as 9-point chalks. I'll lay the price here with Colorado.
|11-24-18||St. Joe's -4 v. William & Mary||85-87||Loss||-108||5 h 41 m||Show|
St Joe's looks to snap a two-game losing streak today after starting the season 3-0. The Hawks are 3-2 ATS this season and 8-2 ATS dating back to last season. William & Mary opened the season with a win over High Point, 79-69. However, it's been low points since, going 0-4 S/U and 1-3 ATS. The Tribe's only cover coming at Notre Dame in a 64-73 loss as 11.5-point dogs. St Joe's just a 4-point road chalk here today and my numbers more than double that number. I'm laying the points with St Josephs.
|11-24-18||Valparaiso +15.5 v. West Virginia||76-88||Win||100||3 h 40 m||Show|
Valparaiso brings a 3-2 record into today's contest at 2-2 West Virginia. Valp hasn't played all easy games, with a loss against Wake Forest, 63-69 and a loss to Western Kentucky 71-83. They are coming off an overtime win over Southern Illinois, 75-70. West Virginia has losses to Buffalo, 94-99 in OT and Western Kentucky 57-63. They are now 0-4 ATS on the season. West Virginia has yet to cover a spread, so the oddsmakers install them as 16.5-point favorites in today's contest. I think that's a bit much so I'll take the points with Valpo.
|11-21-18||Harvard v. San Francisco -7||57-61||Loss||-110||7 h 30 m||Show|
Harvard makes the long West Coast trip here tonight to play San Francisco. Harvard is 2-2 S/U and 2-1 ATS on the short season. Harvard is coming off a road loss at Rhode Island, 74-76, but covered the 4-point dog line. Meanwhile, San Francisco has rolled through its first four games to a 4-0 S/U and 3-0 ATS record. The Dons haven't really played any competition, but they have covered all the oddsmakers lines with ease thus far. San Fran is a 7.5 point favorite here tonight, but my numbers have them double that. I'm going to lay the points here with the home team as they play a tired Harvard squad. Play San Francisco.
|11-20-18||Colorado v. San Diego -4||64-70||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
Colorado comes into tonight's contest with a 2-0 record after beating Drake in their opener and then Nebraska-Omaha last time out, 79-75. They failed to cover their last game as a 17-point favorite. San Diego is 3-1 S/U and 3-0 ATS. Their lone loss coming at Washington, 63-66 as a 9.5-point dog. Their last game was a win over San Diego CC 95-47 with no line. Colorado is 18-40-1 ATS in its last 59 games. Meanwhile, San Diego is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 non-conference games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall. My numbers have San Diego a much stronger favorite then the oddsmakers have installed them as. I'm taking San Diego here today.
|11-20-18||Wright State +6 v. Penn State||59-77||Loss||-102||8 h 49 m||Show|
Cancun Challenge action here today has Wright State taking on Penn State. The Raiders of Wright State are 3-1 both S/U and ATS to start the season. Their lone loss coming at Murray State, 54-73 as 2.5-points road dogs. Penn State is 2-1 S/U and 1-1 ATS to start the season. The Nittany Lions are coming off a road loss to Depaul, 70-72 as 1.5-point favorites. Wright State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games and 6-1 ATS their last seven vs a team with a winning record. Oddsmakers have Penn State at 7.5 point favorites, but my own power lines have this game close to a four. I'm taking Wright State tonight.
|11-20-18||Bradley +3 v. SMU||75-62||Win||100||5 h 19 m||Show|
Bradley opened up the season with three straight wins before losing last time out at Illinois Chicago, 70-71 as a 1-point favorite. Bradley plays in today's Cancun Challenge against SMU. SMU is only 2-2 S/U and 1-3 ATS on the young season. The Mustangs lost at home to Lipscomb last time out, 73-79 as 10-point favorites. In fact, SMU has lost three of its four games on its own home court. SMU is also 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs a team with a winning record. I'm taking Bradley here today.
|11-19-18||Oregon State v. Pennsylvania +4.5||74-58||Loss||-105||6 h 43 m||Show|
Paradise Jam final round from St Thomas Virgin Islands today has Oregon State and Penn facing off. Oregon State had won their first three games of the season before losing yesterday in the tourney to Missouri, 63-69. The Beavers are 2-2 ATS though they failed to cover as a 3-point favorite vs Missouri. Penn also started out without a loss, winning four straight out of the gate before dropping yesterday's game to Kansas State, 48-64. It was also their first loss vs the number as they sit at 4-1 ATS. Oregon State is the 3.5-point favorite here and that goes against my own number which has Penn as a slight favorite. The Beavers are just 8-20 ATS their last 28 vs non-conference opponents and 3-8 ATS vs teams with a winning straight up record. I think this game should be closer to a pick and i'll take the points with Penn.
|11-19-18||Auburn -9 v. Xavier||88-79||Push||0||3 h 44 m||Show|
Auburn brings is 3-0 record into today's first round of the Maui Invitational. They will take on the 2-1 Xavier Muskateers. Auburn has had three easy wins against South Alabama, Washington and then Mississippi College. The Tigers have covered both of their spread games easily. Xavier opened with a pair of wins over Indiana Purdue and then Evansville. They lost last time out at home t Wisconsin, 68-77 as a 1-point favorite. The Muskateers are now 0-3 vs the spread. Auburn has shown little trouble in it's three games and my number favors the Tigers today. I'll go with my own power lines here and take Auburn in this opening round of the Maui Invitational.
|11-18-18||Pennsylvania +10.5 v. Kansas State||48-64||Loss||-102||10 h 3 m||Show|
Second Round of the Paradise Jam from the Virgin Islands has Penn playing Kansas State. Both these teams are undefeated, with Penn at 4-0 both S/U and ATS and Kansas State at 3-0 S/U and 1-1 ATS. Penn has beaten George Mason, Rice, Lafayette and Northern Iowa, scoring at least 72 points in each game. Kansas State scored just 56 vs Kennesaw State and 64 vs Denver. They did erupt for 95 vs Eastern Kentucky. I don't see that here today as Penn can put up the points and 10.5 is a lot to cover for K State. My personal power lines has this game close to a pick'em, yet the oddsmakers installed K State as a 10.5-point favorite. That's way off my numbers as I see Penn giving K State all it can handle here today. Play Penn.
|11-18-18||St. Joe's +7.5 v. West Virginia||90-97||Win||100||7 h 32 m||Show|
St Joe's brings a 3-1 S/U and 2-2 ATS record into today's finals of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. St Joe's won its first three games before losing las time out against Central Florida, 57-77. West Virginia is 1-2 S/U and 0-3 ATS to start the season. The bad news for the Mountaineers is that they lost to Buffalo in OT and Western Kentucky. Their lone win coming against Monmouth. Yet, West Virginia is a 8-point favorite here today. My personal power lines have the Mountaineers closer to 4-points. That makes this a play for me on St Joes.
|11-16-18||Ole Miss v. Butler -8.5||76-83||Loss||-105||6 h 39 m||Show|
Ole Miss plays its second game of the season after an opening home win over Western Michigan, 90-64. The Rebels also covered the 14 point line. Butler opened the season with a win over Miami-Ohio, 90-68 as 15.5-point favorites and then followed that with a 84-63 win over Detroit as 26-point favorites. That makes the Bulldogs 1-1 ATS on the season. The Rebels are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. Butler is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 home games and 41-20-1 ATS in the last 62 non-conference games. Butler is scoring in bunches and should have little trouble covering the 9.5-point line today. Plays Butler.
|11-14-18||Jacksonville State v. Bradley -5.5||65-74||Win||100||5 h 26 m||Show|
Jacksonville State is not a good team. They have played two away games and are 0-2 both S/U and ATS. They opened with a blowout loss at Samford, a team with a seven point lower power rating then themselves. Then their second game was a loss at Penn State, 61-76. Meanwhile, Bradley opened with a win over Wisconsin Parkside, 74-58 and then a home win over SE Missouri State, 68-57. They are 0-1 ATS. The Samford Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS their last seven games while Bradley is 20-5-1 ATS their last 26 at home vs a team with a losing road record. They are also 20-5-2 ATS their last 27 at home. I rely heavily on my own numbers this early in the season and I have Bradley well into the double-digit favorite. Yet, the oddsmakers and bettors have driven this number to just six. That's a bargain for me, I'm taking Bradley.
|11-13-18||Rhode Island +2 v. College of Charleston||55-66||Loss||-107||6 h 15 m||Show|
Rhode Island playing its second game of the season tonight. They opened with an easy win over Bryant, 97-63. The Rams shot 48.6% from the field and 48.1% from three-point land. The Rams are one of the best Atlantic 10 teams. College of Charleston playing its third game. They opened with a win over Presbyterian College, 85-73. Then they beat Western Carolina on the road, 77-74, but failed to cover the 11.5 point line. They struggled defensively as they trailed by nine-points mid way through the second half. I was alarmed at how Charleston played defensively against a much inferior opponent. The Rams might not be as good this year, but I like them plus the small line tonight. Play Rhode Island.
|11-13-18||Wisconsin v. Xavier +1||77-68||Loss||-113||6 h 46 m||Show|
Wisconsin opened its season with an easy home win over Coppin State, 85-63. Xavier were heavy favorites in both of their opening games, a wins over Indiana Purdue, 82-69 and Evansville, 91-85. They failed to cover both games however. Wisconsin had a down year last season, going just 15-18 and 7-11 in Big 10 play. The poor season broke a 19-7 year run of NCAA appearances. Xavier has done well vs the Big 10, going 14-2 ATS their last 16. Will Wisconsin improve this year? I think they will, but not tonight. They play a very good Muskateers team that should win at home over Wisconsin. Play Xavier.
|11-12-18||San Diego +8.5 v. Washington||63-66||Win||100||21 h 35 m||Show|
San Diego out to a 2-0 S/U and ATS start to its season. SDG opened with a nice home win over Weber State, 83-66 and the followed that up with a blowout win over UC Davis, 76-57. Now they travel to Washington to face the Huskies. Washington won its opener at home over Western Kentucky, 73-55 and then lost at Auburn 66-88 a few nights ago. It's early in the season, but my own power rating numbers show that San Diego shouldn't be more than a 4-point dog. They come as an 8-point dog and that gives me a nice dog play. Play San Diego U.
|11-12-18||UC-Davis v. Arkansas -15||Top||58-81||Win||100||18 h 34 m||Show|
UC Davis already showing it's one of the worst teams in college basketball. Davis got shredded in its opening game by San Francisco, 42-76 and then again by San Diego U in its second game, 57-76, failing to cover the spread in both games. Arkansas didn't open with some pushover team. No, they played at Texas and gave the Longhorns all they could handle. The Hogs took Texas to overtime before losing 71-73 but covering the 6.5-point dog line. Now the Hogs return home to face a very bad Davis squad. With five days off before their next game, I look for the Razorbacks to go all out for their first home win. Lay the points in a blowout win. Take Arkansas.
|11-09-18||Wichita State v. Providence -4.5||83-80||Loss||-110||16 h 22 m||Show|
Veteran's Classic action here from Annapolis, MD. Wichita State opened with a home loss to Louisiana Tech, 58-71. The loss was shocking for the Shockers since they were 9-point chalks and got beat by 12. They will take on a Providence team tonight that also failed to cover first time out to Siena. The Friars won at home over the Saints, 77-67, but failed to cover the 19.5 point line. Wichita State is now 7-21-1 ATS in its last 29 games on a neutral site. They have also failed to cover the spread in their last eight games dating back to last season. The Friars are 19-9 AST in their last 28 on a neutral site. Providence looks to be the better of these two early in the season. I'll lay the small price here with the Friars. Take Providence.
|11-08-18||Siena +7 v. George Washington||69-61||Win||100||5 h 18 m||Show|
Siena Saints opened its season with a loss at Providence, 67-77, but covered the 19.5-point line. George Washington had a disappointing start to the season, losing at home to Stony Brook, 74-77. Siena lost four of its top 5 scorers from last season. They also have a new head coach in Jamion Christian. Christian will bring a new system with him to Siena that he will start building around Khalil Richard and Evan Fisher who return. Poor GW, they started their game with Stony Brook leading 22-0 to start the game. What looked like a runaway victory turned into defeat as Stony Brook came back to win, despite shooting just 38.6% from the field. GW will have to do much better then that if they hope to improve on last year's 15-18 record. The Saints have been good out of conference, evidenced by their 7-3 ATS mark. Two teams that both looks to have down seasons, but I'll take the points in this one with the visitor. Take Siena.
|11-06-18||Duke v. Kentucky -1||Top||118-84||Loss||-105||11 h 19 m||Show|
Opening night of the college basketball season and we are already treated to a marquee matchup here tonight between Duke and Kentucky. This is part of the Champion's Classic from Indianapolis that also features Michigan State and Kansas. Duke had a great recruiting class, landing three top prospects in RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish and Zion Williamson. Kentucky also has some great incoming freshmen including Immanuel Quickley. The difference in this one, the experience of Kentucky. Might take a few games for all this new talent to jell in Duke, but Kentucky returns more experienced players. Sit back, enjoy a great matchup here and take Kentucky.
|11-06-18||Louisiana Tech +10 v. Wichita State||71-58||Win||100||19 h 57 m||Show|
Opening night in college hoops means a lot of sports going on these days. Today, I am looking at La Tech for one main reason. The Bulldogs had some extra practice time in some Costa Rica exhibition games. Any extra practice these teams can get in before the start of the season is big. Plus, Wichita State is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games and 0-7 ATS in the last seven overall. Can't go crazy in these early games, but there's value in Louisiana Tech tonight.
|03-31-18||Loyola-Chicago +5.5 v. Michigan||57-69||Loss||-105||89 h 60 m||Show|
Number 11 Loyola Chicago has done the improbable, advancing to the final four to take on Michigan. Loyola is definitely the Cinderella team in this field of four tournament veterans. Loyola last won a national championship in 1963. The Ramblers also have a 14-game win streak, longest among the four remaining teams. Both these teams will be very similar. They both boast very good defenses and efficient offenses. Both of these teams will be more than happy to play a half court, deliberate game and not turn this into a track meet. Loyola ranks fifth in effective field goal percentage while Michigan ranks 47th. Loyola is also 11th in the country in three-point percentage and ninth in overall field goal percentage. This will not be a high scoring game with both these defenses on the floor. I think the 5 or 5 1/2 we can get with Loyola is just too much to pass on here. This is a very good Loyola team that deserves to be here by virtue of their play and the points just look good to me. Play Loyola Chicago.
|03-28-18||San Francisco v. North Texas -3||Top||55-69||Win||100||19 h 25 m||Show|
Game 2 of the Best of 3 CBI Championship moves to North Texas. San Franciso took game one of this series on their home court, 72-62. The Dons pretty much had the game in control the entire way. North Texas saw it's offense get cut down after scoring over 90 points in their previous three games. The Green Machine scored just 62 points at San Francisco. The Dons his 12 of 18 from the three point line in Monday's game. This was not the norm for the Dons this year, as they were ranked 109th in three-pointers on the season. Despite their loss, the Mean Green get games two and a possible game three on their own home court. North Texas is 12-6 S/U at home compared to just 6-11 on the road. San Francisco is just 4-7 away from home. And, North Texas can take the momentum they had in the second half of game one and build on that, where they won 32-26. I like North Texas to rebound here at home. They can score in bunches and the Dons are just not that good a road team. Play North Texas.
|03-27-18||Mississippi State +2.5 v. Penn State||60-75||Loss||-106||99 h 15 m||Show|
NIT semifinal action from Madison Square garden has Mississippi State taking on Penn State for the right to play in the Championship game. Mississippi State got her with road wins at Baylor, 78-77 and at Louisville, 79-56. The Bulldogs have covered five straight games and 13 of their last 16. Penn State got here with road wins at Notre Dame, 73-63 and at Marquette, 85-80. The Nittany Lions have covered two of three and five of eight. The rest will be good for this defensive Mississippi State team that has been on the road for a while. Their stingy defense held Louisville to just 35% from the field and 29.2% of three-point shots. I like defensive teams at this stage and that edge goes to the Bulldogs. I'm taking Mississippi State here on Tuesday.
|03-27-18||Western Kentucky -1 v. Utah||Top||64-69||Loss||-105||97 h 48 m||Show|
The NIT Semifinals move from the team's home court to Madison Square Garden in New York. This will help level the playing field and take away that home court value some teams enjoyed. Western Kentucky played their last two NIT games on the road, winning at USC, 79-75 and then at Oklahoma State, 92-84. The Hilltoppers had little problems scoring points, in fact they have scored at least 79 points in each of their three NIT contest. They are also covering well, evidenced by their 5-1 ATS the last six games and 9-3 ATS mark their last 12. Utah had to go to OT to beat St Mary's their last game, winning 67-58 in the extra period. The Utes had an early exit in the PAC-12 tourney, losing their first game to Oregon, 66-68. They played their first two NIT games at home before traveling to St Marys for their last game. Both these teams are playing very well. Western is very efficient, as they have the 8th best field goal percent in the nation (49.7%) to go with their 35.3% from the three-point stripe and 71.6% from the free throw line. I'm taking Western Kentucky here today because they have shown they can win on the road in the NIT. They also have this excellent offense. Take Western Kentucky
|03-26-18||North Texas +3.5 v. San Francisco||62-72||Loss||-104||22 h 54 m||Show|
The CBI Tourney Championship best of three starts tonight with San Francisco hosting North Texas. North Texas is an unlikely team to make is this far, they don't even have a .500 record on the season despite winning two straight in this tourney. They have been scoring big points though with 90 at South Dakota, 96 at home over Mercer and then 90 at home over Jacksoville State. All three games were blowout wins for North Texas. Now they play at a San Francisco. The Dons have also won three straight in the CBI, all at home. They beat Colgate, 72-68, then Utah Valley, 78-73, and Campbell, 65-62. All three games were close, unlike North Texas three. Still, the Dons are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games. In my opinion, North Texas has been the best team in this tournament. I can easily see North Texas winning this one outright. I'll take the points though with the Mean Green. Play North Texas.
|03-25-18||Duke -3 v. Kansas||81-85||Loss||-103||15 h 37 m||Show|
Unlike yesterday's 11 vs 9 matchup between Loyola and Kansas State, today's matchup is s storied one between two schools that have been here many times. No 2 Duke takes on No 1 Kansas here in the Elite 8. Duke has used a very stingy defense in the tournament, holding their opponents to just 64.6 ppg and 53.6% shooting. Duke will also have the advantage on the boards. Kansas holds a slight shooting edge, but I see Duke staying with them in that category. Duke has done well in neutral site games, going 9-3 ATS their last 11 tries. They have also done well against the Big 12, going 8-3 ATS their last 11. I have never been a fan of Kansas HC Bill Self. He has had great success with this team, but I also believe he is their biggest liability at this point. I like defensive teams at this juncture and that's Duke. Play Duke on Sunday.
|03-24-18||Florida State v. Michigan -4.5||54-58||Loss||-107||19 h 22 m||Show|
Elite 8 action here on Saturday has Florida State playing Michigan. Florida State pulled two straight upset wins, first over Xavier, 75-70 as a 5.5-point dog and then over Gonzaga, 75-60 as a 6-point dog. After an early exit from the ACC tournament, Florida State has moved into the final 8 of the NCAA tourney. They will likely face their toughest opponent today in a red-hot Michigan team. Michigan won their Big-10 Tournament with a convincing win over Purdue, 75-66. Now the Wolverines go for their fourth straight win in the NCAA tournament. The Wolverines have now won 12 straight games and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. Michigan destroyed Texas A&M in the Sweet 16, raining down 3-point shots on the Aggies all day for the 99-72 win. Even with their 99 points, it's their defense that Michigan is known for. And if they score anywhere like they did against A&M, then this team will win it all. Michigan has lots of fresh legs for this game and right now will be considered an upset if they aren't playing for the National Championship come April 2nd. With Michigan being fresh here tonight, their defense will shut down Florida State and their offense will get it done. Play Michigan.
|03-24-18||Loyola-Chicago +1 v. Kansas State||78-62||Win||100||7 h 40 m||Show|
I'm sure there weren't many people with this matchup in their Elite 8 bracket. Loyola Chicago has used defense and timely scoring to advance to this point. Their three wins have been by a combined four points and maybe some divine intervention by Sister Jean. Loyola continues to find ways to win. The Ramblers have now won 13 games in a row and covered five straight and 10 of their last 13. Kansas State had some rough patches in the Big 12, losing to Kansas in their tournament, 67-83 and going 3-2 ATS in the tournaments. The Ramblers have been very good against good teams, going 20-7-1 ATS their last 28 gams vs a team with a win percentage above 60%. Kansas State has not done so well vs non-conference teams, going just 3-9 ATS their last 12. This game should be close as most of Loyola's games have been lately. But I will stick with the Ramblers here. Play Loyola Chicago.
|03-24-18||Central Michigan +3.5 v. Liberty||71-84||Loss||-105||2 h 43 m||Show|
CBI Quarterfinals has Central Michigan facing Liberty. Central Michigan has been scoring like crazy in the CBI, beating IUPU Fort Wayne 94-89 and then Wofford, 98-94. They have covered four of their last six games. Liberty has had just one game in the CBI and that was a home winner over North Carolina A&T, 65-52. Big difference between the MAC and Big South conferences. Liberty steps up in talent today and runs into a scoring machine in Central Michigan. I like a team that can score big and is getting points. That's just what we have here today. Play Central Michigan.
|03-23-18||Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue||78-65||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
NCAA Semis from Boston, MA has Texas Tech playing Purdue. Texas Tech lost to West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament, 63-66. The Red Raiders then opened NCAA tournament play with a win over Stephen Austin, 70-60 and then beat Florida, 69-66. Purdue lost to Michigan in the Big 10 tournament but beat Cal Fullerton and Butler in the NCAA tourney. Tech is one of the best teams in the nation in turnovers, averaging 15 per game. Their key to victory tonight is to limit Purdue's chances and add to theirs through turnovers. Texas Tech will have to take over here defensively and keep Purdue from running away with this game. The Raiders allowed the fewest points in the Big 12 and was 15th best in the country. I like Tech tonight to play solid defense and take Purdue out of their game. I'm taking Texas Tech.
|03-23-18||Syracuse +11.5 v. Duke||65-69||Win||100||76 h 59 m||Show|
NCAA Midwest Regional from Omaha, NE pits ACC foes Syracuse and Duke against each other. These teams know each other well though they didn't meet in the ACC tournament. Their one meeting this year, in Duke, resulted in a Blue Devil's win, 44-60. They totaled just 104 points in that game. Syracuse is 3-0 in the NCAA tournament, playing a solid zone defense that has help opponents to 53, 52 and 56 points respectively. The Orangemen have covered three straight and five of the last six. The Orange have also done well in NCAA tournaments, covering seven of their last eight NCAA games. Duke also plays a zone defense and while they haven't been as stingy as the Orange, they are still solid. The issue I have in this game is the line. Duke is laying 11 1/2 points to a good defensive team that keeps scores low. That being said, I don't think Duke can score enough points to cover this double digit line. The Blue Devils will have to work for their scoring opportunities against this Syracuse zone. Take the points with Syracuse here on Friday.
|03-23-18||West Virginia v. Villanova -5||78-90||Win||100||32 h 51 m||Show|
The loss of so many top seeds has really opened up the field for just about any team to win this year's NCAA Championship. However, the favorite now has to be Villanova. Villanova has 32 wins and won the Big East Tourmament. They opened NCAA with wins over Radford by 26 points and Alabama by 23 points. They have covered four of their five games in the tournaments, despite being double digit favorites in four of the five. West Virginia lost to Kansas in the Big 12 Tourney, 70-81. The Mountaineers then beat Murray State and Marshall in the NCAA tourney. Now they face arguably the best team left of the 16 in the tournament. Villanova has a very balanced scoring team, with six players averaging in double figures. It just follows that the Wildcats are the nation's top scoring team with such talent on their club. West Virginia has to hope their defense can contain the nation's top offense, because they can't get into a scoring match with Villanova. Personally, I don't see West Virginia containing this club and with Villanova laying just five points, that to me is a bargain. I'm playing Villanova.
|03-23-18||Clemson v. Kansas -5||76-80||Loss||-105||22 h 29 m||Show|
Clemson was ousted by then No 1 Virginia in the ACC tournament, 58-64. Since then, Clemson has beaten New Mexico State and then buried Auburn, 84-53, in their two NCAA tourney games. Today will be the Tigers toughest matchup against a 29-win Kansas team. Kansas won their Big 12 conference tourney and then beat Penn and Seton Hall in their two NCAA tourney games. The Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their five tourney games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. Clemson makes the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1997 and they did it without No 2 scorer Donte Grantham who they lost in January to a ACL tear. Kansas is used to this spot, this is the seventh time in 10 years the Jayhawks have been to the Sweet 16. Kansas has won five straight games and 10 of the last 11. Kansas relies on their 3-point shots, though they were last in the Big 12 in free throw attempts. I like Kansas here today as they have all the experience behind coach Bill Self at this stage of the tournament. Take Kansas.
|03-22-18||Kansas State v. Kentucky -5.5||Top||61-58||Loss||-102||53 h 10 m||Show|
NCAA semifinal action from Atlanta, GA here on Thursday has Kansas State playing Kentucky. Kansas State has won two straight in the NCAA with a win over Creighton and then over Maryland Baltimore County, 50-43. UMBC had that historical win over No 1 seed Virginia and that likely made their entire season. Kansas State really runs into its first rocky spot here on Thursday against a very hot Kentucky club. Kentucky won the SEC Tournament and then in the NCAA's beat Davidson 78-73 and followed that up with a win over a very good Buffalo team, 95-75. The Wildcats of Kentucky have covered five straight games and nine of their last 10 games. Kentucky has historically been a very good tourney team, evidenced by their 31-15-5 ATS record on neutral courts. The Wildcats of Kansas State have not done well against good teams, covering just three of their last 10 when playing a team with a win percentage above 60%. They are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games and 2-5 ATS their last seven NCAA tourney games. Kentucky playing well too good right now in a wide open field and has to be one of the teams to beat in this tournament. Lay the 5 1/2 points in what I look for another Kentucky blowout.
|03-22-18||Loyola-Chicago +2 v. Nevada||69-68||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
Loyola Chicago was the Missouri Valley champion and the Tournament champion. They will face Nevada here today in the Sweet 16. Nevada was the regular season winner of the Mountain West but lost to San Diego State in the tournament. They beat Texas in OT for their first win and then came from way back to beat Cincinnati in the quarterfinals, 75-73. Nevada has only been mediocre vs the number, going 2-2-2 ATS in their last six games and 3-4-2 ATS in their last nine. Meanwhile, Loyola has covered four straight and nine of their last 12. Loyola's defense has been solid, holing seven consecutive opponents to 62 or fewer points. They also rank first in scoring defense among the remaining 16 teams. Nevada likes to play a faster paced, transition game, which will be tough today against the Ramblers. This should be close today with Loyola taking it with their defense. Play Loyola Chicago.
|03-21-18||Utah +7 v. St. Mary's||67-58||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
NIT Quarterfinals on Wednesday has Utah playing at St Marys. Utah was a quick exit in the PAC-12 tournament, losing to Oregon, 66-68. They are 2-0 in the NIT, beating UC-Davis and then LSU, 95-71. The Utes have covered three of their last four games and seven of their last 10. St Marys has 30 wins, ended their tournament with 28 wins and still got passed over for the NCAA tourney. Mainly that was because of their poor performance in the WCC tournament where they beat Pepperdine by just three as a 15 1/2 point favorite and then lost to BYU as a 5.5 point favorite. In the NIT, St Mary's opened with a win over SE Louisiana 89-45 and then a close win over Washington, 85-81 as an 11-point favorite. The Gaels are 1-2 vs the PAC-12 this year both S/U and ATS. In addition, St Marys hasn't been good to bettors, going just 2-7 ATS their last nine games. I like the road team here tonight plus the points. Take UTAH.
|03-19-18||Western Kentucky +5 v. USC||Top||79-75||Win||100||12 h 20 m||Show|
NIT 2nd round action here tonight has Western Kentucky playing at USC. Unlike the NCAA's, these teams still playing at home until they move to Madison Sq Garden. Western Kentucky won its first two games in the Conference USA tournament before losing to eventual title winner Marshal. The Hilltoppers won their opener in the NIT over Boston College, 79-62 as a small favorite. Western Kentucky has now covered seven of the last 10 games. USC won two games in the PAC-12 tourney before bowing out at the hands of Arizona, 61-75. The Trojans won their NIT opener with a Double OT victory over UNC Ashevill, 103-98. The Trojans struggled against Charlotte, despite being a 14.5 point home favorite. USC might not be too happy being passed over for the NCAA despite winning 23 games and finishing second in the PAC-12 with an RPI of 34. Western Kentucky had a few good days of rest between their NIT win and tonight. Both these teams could have easily made the NCAA tournament, but I have to think USC is the more disappointed, especially after it took two OT's to dispatch UNC Asheville. I'm taking the points here tonight with Western Kentucky.
|03-18-18||Clemson +1.5 v. Auburn||Top||84-53||Win||100||8 h 58 m||Show|
The ACC meets the SEC here in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament. Back before conference play, Clemson beat both SEC opponents, winning over Florida 71-69 and South Carolina, 64-48. Clemson opened NCAA play with a win over New Mexico State, 79-68 and have now covered three straight games. Auburn lost in their SEC tourney opener to Alabama, 63-81. Auburn did open NCAA play with a win over College of Charleston, 62-58, but did not cover the 9.5 point line. In fact, the Tigers have lost five straight to the number and six of the last seven. My numbers clearly show Clemson should be the favorite here, both in recent form and overall. On paper, these teams evenly matched, but I like Clemson to come out on top. Play Clemson.
|03-18-18||Syracuse +9.5 v. Michigan State||55-53||Win||100||4 h 43 m||Show|
NCAA 2nd round action has Syracuse taking on Michigan State. Syracuse lost in the 2nd round of the ACC tournament to North Carolina, 59-78. The Orangemen by virtue of their 22 wins in a tough conference go the NCAA invite and have won two straight. They opened with a win over Arizona State, 60-56 and then beat TCU, 57-52. Now they face 30 win Michigan State. Michigan State lost in their Big 10 tournament to Michigan, 64-75. The Spartans opened NCAA tourney play with a win over Bucknell, 82-78. The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games and 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 games. Spartans not a big scoring team, though they did put up 82 vs Bucknell. They only scored 64, 63 and 68 in their three previous games. That's not a good sign for a team laying 9.5 points here today. That lack of scoring is a big reason the Spartans have only two covers in their last 13 games. My recent form number has this game even with my highest number on Michigan State around seven. I think this line is too high for a Spartans team that has issues scoring big numbers to cover big spreads. Take Syracuse.
|03-17-18||Ohio State v. Gonzaga -3.5||84-90||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
Not that I put a lot of weight on these teams first matchup back in November in one of the preseason tourneys, but Gonzaga trounced Ohio State in that matchup, 86-59. Too long ago to rely on that result though. Gonzaga cruised through their conference tourney, easily beating BYU for the crown, 74-54. The Zags then opened NCAA play with a lackluster win over UNC Greensboro, 68-64. Gonzaga has now won 16 straight games. Ohio State was an early out in the Big 10 tourney, losing to Penn State, 68-69. It was the team's third loss in five games before beating South Dakota State in round one of the NCAA, 81-73. Still, Ohio State is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games. Gonzaga laying 3.5-points here today and while I'll discount that blowout in their first meeting, I still like this team to advance on and cover today's game. Play Gonzaga.
|03-17-18||Seton Hall +5 v. Kansas||79-83||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
Seton Hall may have bowed out early in their own tournament, but they survived round one of the NCAA tourney with a win over NC State, 94-83. The Pirates have covered five games in a row. Kansas won the Big 12 tourney with a big win over West Virginia, 81-70. They won their opener over Penn, 76-60 and have now covered four in a row. This one for me comes down to coaching. I do not like or trust Bill Self of Kansas. Especially in big games like this. Never have, never will. Plus Kansas is now up to a 5 or 5.5 point favorite and my own numbers show this game as closer to two points in recent form. I'm taking the points here and counting on Self to do what he does best, screw things up. Take Seton Hall.
|03-17-18||Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5||Top||75-95||Win||100||21 h 18 m||Show|
What a season this Buffalo team has had. They won 27 games and the MAC Championship over Toledo, 76-66. They opened the first round of the NCAA with a big upset win over Arizona, 89-68. However, here is my problem with both these things. First, Buffalo is a very good team, for a MAC team. If we look back to their pre-MAC schedule, we see they lost to Cincinnati by 10, South Dakota by 14, Syracuse by 7 and Texas A&M by 16. My point being, there is a big difference in the athlete that goes to Buffalo to play basketball vs someone who goes to a Basketball powerhouse like Kentucky. In addition, you have to take that Arizona win with a grain of salt. Sure, they beat the Wildcats easily. However, the Wildcats gave up. Arizona was riddled with off court allegations of game fixing and their coach came under scrutiny for other issues. And right after the game was over, the Wildcats two best players announced their availability for the NBA draft. This was a Arizona team that just had no heart left to play. Meanwhile, Kentucky is peaking. They have won four straight and nine of their last 10 games. they have also covered nine of their last 10. In their opening win over Davidson, they had the game by double digits in the last minute, but some three's by Davidson made the score closer then it really was. I really like this Kentucky team here today. Lay the short price today with Kentucky.
|03-16-18||College of Charleston +9.5 v. Auburn||Top||58-62||Win||100||18 h 2 m||Show|
A pair of 25-win teams meet up in San Diego tonight for the NCAA 1st round. College of Charleston won their conference tournament by beating Northeastern, 83-76. The Charleston Cougars won 13 of their 14 games. They also covered five of their last seven games. Auburn lost three of their last four games in including their first SEC tournament game to Alabama, 63-81. The Tigers also failed to cover any of their last four games. Auburn lost a key player, F Anfernee McLemore back in February and since then they have lost four of their six games. Auburn is a 9-point favorite here, but I look for Charleston to give them all they can handle. Play College of Charleston.
|03-16-18||Kansas State +1 v. Creighton||69-59||Win||100||17 h 23 m||Show|
NCAA first round action from Charlotte, NC today finds Kansas State taking on Creighton. Kansas State lost in the Big 12 conference tournament to Kansas, 67-83. The Wildcats were 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss. The Creighton Blue Jays were an early exit in the Big East tournament losing to Providence, 68-72. The Jayhawks lost four of their last six games and were a terrible 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. In addition, Creighton was 8-20 ATS their last 28 games vs a team with a win percentage above 60%. Also, the Blue Jays have not done well in the NCAA tournament, going 1-9-1 ATS their last 10 attempts. Creighton a 1-point favorite here, but I look for Kansas State to take this one and advance to the next round. Play Kansas State.
|03-16-18||Marshall +12 v. Wichita State||81-75||Win||100||12 h 2 m||Show|
NCAA first round action continues here on Friday with Marshall taking on Wichita State. Marshall won the Conference USA tournament by beating Western Kentucky, 67-66. The Herd won and covered all three of their tournament games. The are now 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. Wichita State lost in the American Athletic semifinals to Houston, 74-77. The Shockers finished poorly from a bettor's perspective. They were 0-6 ATS down the stretch. Today the Shockers are laying 12 points to Marshall. My recent play numbers have this game closer to a two-point line and as high as six on Wichita. With Marshall covering spread and Wichita not, I'm taking the points here on Friday. Play Marshall.
|03-15-18||San Diego State +4 v. Houston||65-67||Win||100||7 h 22 m||Show|
NCAA first round action has San Diego State taking on Houston. San Diego State won the Mountain West tournament with a victory over New Mexico, 82-75 in the championship game. The Aztecs covered their last five games and eight of the last nine. Houston put up a good fight in the American Athletic tournament, but lost to Cincinnati, 55-56. The Cougars finished the season winning five of the last six games. Houston is laying four points. My numbers show them closer to two points overall and in recent form I have San Diego State the favorite. This is a great matchup, one of the best in the first round, but I like the points here with San Diego State.
|03-15-18||Stephen F Austin +11.5 v. Texas Tech||60-70||Win||100||54 h 2 m||Show|
NCAA tourney action here on Thursday has Stephen Austin taking on Texas Tech. SFA had an excellent Southland Conference run, beating Central Arkansas, Nicholls State and then SE Louisiana for the title. Their defense has been solid, holding six of their last seven opponents to 66 or less points. Texas Tech opened Big 12 tourney action with a win over Texas, then lost to West Virginia, 63-66. Tech has not been good to bettors, going 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games. Stephen Austin played good teams early in the season, losing by one to Missouri as a 14-point dog and beating LSU as a 8.5 point dog. Too many points here with Tech laying 11.5 on a neutral court. I'm taking SF Austin plus the points.
|03-15-18||Davidson v. Kentucky -4.5||73-78||Win||100||7 h 32 m||Show|
Kentucky has been a very good over bet this year. The Wildcats were 8-0 O/U in their last eight non-conference games and 7-1 O/U in their last eight overall. On a neutral site, the Wildcats were 4-1 O/U their last five games. Davidson went over in two of their three conference tournament games. I look for this game to go over today.
|03-15-18||Loyola-Chicago +1.5 v. Miami-FL||64-62||Win||100||68 h 3 m||Show|
NCAA first round action from Dallas has Loyola Chicago taking on Miami Florida. The Ramblers of Loyola had an excellent season, winning 28 games and their own tournament title. They cruised through the Missouri Valley tourney, finishing with a nice 65-49 win over Illinois State. Miami finished with 22 wins and lost to North Carolina in their ACC opener, 65-82. The Hurricanes were just 3-10 ATS their last 13 games. Meanwhile, Loyola was much kinder to bettors, going 7-3 ATS their last 10 down the stretch. Miami installed as the small favorite here, though I think Loyola wins this game. I'm taking the dog here in Loyola Chicago.
|03-15-18||Oklahoma v. Rhode Island -2||78-83||Win||100||65 h 8 m||Show|
NCAA first round action has Oklahoma taking on Rhode Island. Big surprise that Oklahoma made the big dance with just 18 wins. Even Louisville had more wins and didn't make the NCAA. Have to wonder what the selection committee is thinking here. Oklahoma didn't finish the season well, losing eight of their last 10 games both S/U and ATS. Rhode Island might have lost in their tournament to Davidson, but that doesn't take away from a nice 25 win season for the Rams. Rhode Island is the team that should be here and not Oklahoma. I look for the Sooners to bow out today. Play Rhode Island.
|03-14-18||Arizona State v. Syracuse +1.5||56-60||Win||100||20 h 42 m||Show|
NCAA first round action has Arizona State playing Syracuse. ASU was a quick exist in the PAC-12 tournament, losing to Colorado, 85-97. The Sun Devils lost five of their last six games and still made the NCAA's. They were equally bad vs the number, going 1-5 ATS their last six games. Syracuse won their ACC opener over Wake Forest and then lost to North Carolina, 59-78. This game is basically a pick'em. All of my numbers have Syracuse a favorite, from three to four points. I like the Orange here tonight. Play Syracuse.
|03-14-18||Nebraska +4 v. Mississippi State||59-66||Loss||-105||20 h 32 m||Show|
Both of these 22 win teams can't be happy being passed over for the NCAA tourney when teams like Arizona State and Syracuse both got in with 20 wins. Still, who will be the more motivated team tonight? Nebraska had an excellent run at the end f the season, going 8-2 down the stretch. They also covered 14 of their last 17 games. Mississippi State lost to Tennessee in the SEC tournament, 59-62. It was their third loss in four games. Miss State is a four point favorite here tonight. My numbers have them closer to two points and in recent form I have Nebraska the favorite. I have done well with the Huskers, especially late in the season. I'm taking Nebraska here tonight.
|03-14-18||North Carolina Central v. Texas Southern -5.5||46-64||Win||100||6 h 10 m||Show|
NCAA First Four play-in game has NC Central taking on Texas Southern. NC Central had to win four games to win their Mid-Eastern Conference tournament. They beat Hampton in the champ game, 71-63. They also covered all four games. Texas Southern got here with just 15 wins by winning the Southwestern Athletic Conference title over Arkansas Pine Bluff, 84-67. Tex Southern has had seven games with lines this year and they have covered six. This team hasn't been afraid of competition, playing their first 13 games of the season on the road. They played Gonzaga, Washington State, Ohio State, Syracuse, Kansas, Clemson, Oregon, Baylor, Wyoming, TCU and BYU during that stretch. Those games gave them valuable experience against top notch opponents on the road. Tex Southern also won its last seven games of the season. Whoever wins will be fodder for a No 1 seed, but I like Texas Southern because they have proven they can play with anyone in the country. Take Texas Southern.
|03-13-18||Rider v. Oregon -11.5||Top||86-99||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
Rider having to make the long trip from New Jersey to the Northwest to play Oregon. From all accounts it was a rough trip too, considering the weather in the East coast. That will make this game even tougher for Rider, a Metro Atlantic team stepping way up in class to play a PAC-12 squad today. Rider lost its opener in the Metro Atlantic tournament to St Peters, 55-66. Won't get any easier tonight against this Oregon squad. The Ducks won their first two games of the PAC-12 tourney before losing to USC, 54-74. I like Oregon a lot here, mainly because this Rider team has to be exhausted after their plane ride and the fact that is in all likelihood a one-and-done tournament for them. Play Oregon.
|03-13-18||Northern Kentucky +9 v. Louisville||58-66||Win||100||25 h 55 m||Show|
NIT action here on Tuesday has Northern Kentucky playing at Louisville. Northern Ky had a nice run at the end of the season, winning three of their last four games and eight of their last 10. Louisville was a victim of No 1 Virginia in the ACC tournament, losing 58-75. The Cardinals didn't play all that great at the end of the regular season, going 4-8 in their last 12 games. In addition, bettors lost money on them as they went just 5-6 their last 11 vs the number. No.KY won more games than Louisville did this year. Have to wonder why Louisville is even here. They got passed up for the NCAA by a team like Oklahoma that had fewer wins and then the players voted not to go to the NIT, but they are going anyways. I don't see Louisville's heart in this one. I like Northern Kentucky in what I see as a possible upset win here on Tuesday. Play Northern Kentucky.
|03-13-18||Wagner v. Baylor -13||59-80||Win||100||2 h 27 m||Show|
Wagner charted as one of the smallest teams in the nation this year, 351 in effective height. Meanwhile, Baylor comes in at a bruising #13, and it isn't just that the Bears are tall, they are also athletic. Wagner struggled to score near the basket against weak competition (#270 in 2-point%), and now will find nothing easy near the rim, while also having to hit 3-point shots from further out. Note that there was one other Wagner game against a KenPom Top 200, a short trip to play Seton Hall, where they fell down big early and lost by 21. This will be a mismatch today in the NIT. Take Baylor.
|03-11-18||Houston +4.5 v. Cincinnati||55-56||Win||100||4 h 4 m||Show|
American Athletic Conference Championship today with Houston taking on Cincinnati. Both these teams will make the NCAA tournament, despite what happens here on Sunday. Houston has been one of my favorite teams and they pulled the minor upset on Saturday with the win over Wichita State, 77-74 as a small dog. The Cougars have now won five straight games and 10 of their last 11. They are also 8-2-1 ATS their last 11. Cincinnati can hit the 30 win mark with a win today. The Bearcats beat SMU in their opener. It wasn't so easy for the Bearcats yesterday, as they trailed Memphis by 13 points at the half. However, a big defensive stand in the second half couple with some scoring pulled out the 70-60 win. Still, the
|03-11-18||Davidson +2 v. Rhode Island||58-57||Win||100||2 h 34 m||Show|
Atlantic 10 championship has Davidson taking on Rhode Island for the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. Rhode Island has 25 wins and win or lose today, they should get in the NCAA tourney. Davidson is another matter, with 20 wins they likely will be bypassed for the NCAA unless they win today. That gives Davidson extra incentive after winning their first two games of the tourney. Davidson opened with a win over St Louis then beat St Bonny's yesterday, 82-70. Rhode Island struggled in their win on Saturday over St Joe's, trailing at the half before rallying late for the narrow win, 90-87. The Rams failed to cover and are now 2-5 ATS in their last seven attempts. My numbers favor Davidson here on Sunday, plus they need to win to get in. Take Davidson.
|03-10-18||North Carolina v. Virginia -4.5||63-71||Win||100||10 h 17 m||Show|
Win or lose today, top ranked Virginia will get a one seed in the NCAA tournament. Still the Cavaliers would like to put the finishing touches on a great season. Virginia hit the 30 win mark yesterday with their win over Clemson, 64-58. The defense was once again stellar, holding an opponent to under 60 points - the ninth time in the last 10 games they have done so. North Carolina will play its fourth game in four days today after beating Duke on Friday, 74-69. The Tar Heels lost at Virginia in their one meeting this year, 69-61. North Carolina has been playing well in this tournament, but I look for them to run out of gas today against this top defensive unit of Virginia. I'm laying the points with Virginia today.
|03-10-18||San Diego State -4 v. New Mexico||82-75||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
San Diego State jumped out to a huge first half lead over Nevada on Friday and never looked back. The Aztecs return to the Mountain West Championship game today to face New Mexico. The Aztecs are on a eight game win streak and have covered seven of the last eight games. New Mexico struggled early on Friday against Utah State, but used a huge 23-2 rally in the late first half to open things up and cruised to a 83-68 win. The Lobos have been scoring points, putting at least 83 on the board in each of their last six games and topping 100 in two of the last six. This looks to be a great game between two hot teams. I'm taking the Aztecs though who have been much more impressive so far in the tournament. Take San Diego State.
|03-10-18||Houston +3.5 v. Wichita State||77-74||Win||100||5 h 8 m||Show|
American Athletic Semifinal action today has Houston taking on Wichita State. Houston has been one of those "Under the Radar" teams this year, quietly winning 25 games. The Cougars have won four straight and nine of the last 10. They have also covered seven of the last 10 with one push. They opened tourney play yesterday with an easy win over Central Florida, 84-56. Wichita State opened tourney play with a win over Temple, 89-81. The Shockers have not covered a game in their last five tries. The teams have split their two meetings this year with each winning on their own home court. Wichita State is a three point favorite here today. My numbers actually favor Houston in recent play and in road value. I'm taking Houston today!
|03-10-18||Alabama v. Kentucky -4||Top||63-86||Win||100||3 h 24 m||Show|
SEC Tourney Game of the Year: Alabama opened tourney play with a narrow win over Texas A&M, 71-70. Then followed that win with another on Friday over Auburn, 81-63. The two wins snapped a five game losing streak by the Crimson Tide. The Tide now play a Kentucky team they lost to back in February, 71-81. Kentucky had just one game in tourney action so far, a easy win over Georgia on Friday, 62-49. The Cats had little trouble with Georgia, which should be good for them going into today's contest. The win was the fifth in their last six games both S/U and ATS. Definitely a fresher Kentucky team here today as Alabama has had two games and Kentucky just the one. Good spot here for the Cats, take Kentucky.
|03-09-18||Oregon v. USC -2||Top||54-74||Win||100||11 h 12 m||Show|
Semifinals Bailout Game of the Month : Late PAC-12 action tonight has Oregon playing USC from Las Vegas. Oregon trailed by nine points to Utah last night with under 10 minutes in the game, but rallied late to take a two point win, 68-66. The Ducks failed to cover the 2.5 point line, making them 1-3 ATS their last four. The night before, Oregon had to go to OT to beat Washington State, 64-62 as a 12-point chalk. USC had a much easier time last night against Oregon State, winning 61-48. The Trojans have now covered four of their last five games. USC is also the much fresher team at this point with just one game played in five days. Meanwhile Oregon has had two straight rough games including an OT. I'm taking USC here on Friday.
|03-09-18||Mississippi State v. Tennessee -6||59-62||Loss||-110||7 h 31 m||Show|
latinum Play : SEC quarterfinal action has Mississippi State taking on Tennessee. Miss State won their opener last night, defeating LSU 80-77 as a 2.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs now play a Tennessee team that they lost at home to on Feb 27th, 57-76. Tennessee plays their opener tonight after five days off. The Vols have a four-game winning streak heading into tonight's contest. Tennessee is a 7-point favorite here tonight. My numbers have the Vols as high as 20 points in recent form. Lay the points with a well rested Tennessee team.
|03-09-18||Clemson v. Virginia -7.5||58-64||Loss||-115||7 h 31 m||Show|
Executive : ACC Semifinal action today has top ranked Virginia taking on Clemson. Clemson won its first game on Thursday against Boston College, 90-82. The Tigers have had fairly good play, going 3-1 in their last four games. They will have some issues tonight scoring against this tough Virginia defense. The Cavs easily defeated Louisville on Thursday, 75-58. The Cavs had an offensive breakout, hitting past 70 points for the first time in nine games. The Cavs have let just opponent score more than 59 against them in their last six games and no one has scored more than 64 points in conference play. This Virginia team looks like the team to beat right now in the NCAA's. I'll lay the price with there here tonight. Take Virginia
|03-09-18||Western Kentucky +1 v. Old Dominion||57-49||Win||100||4 h 32 m||Show|
Conference USA semifinals tonight have Western Kentucky playing Old Dominion. WKY opened play with a win last night over UAB, 98-70. The team bounced back after losing bad at UAB a few nights earlier, 73-101. WKY now is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Old Dominion also opened with a win last night over La Tech, 62-58. It was the team's ninth win in their last 10 games. Their one loss, to Western Ky on Feb 24th, 66-88. While this game is basically a pick'em, my numbers all have Western Kentucky as a favorite, from 2 to eight points. Take Western Kentucky.
|03-09-18||Texas State v. UL-Lafayette -12||54-80||Win||100||3 h 46 m||Show|
Early Friday Sun Belt action has Texas State taking on UL Lafayette. Texas State opened with a win on Thursday over Coastal Carolina, 73-66. The win actually snapped a nine game losing streak for the team. They have covered two straight after losing three in a row vs the number. They will take on a much better team today in UL Lafayette. ULL has won six of its last seven games and in conference was 16-2. Lafayette laying 12 today and they are well worth it and more. I have them at least 14 points in all my key numbers here today. I expect an early blowout win for Friday. Take UL Lafayette.
|03-08-18||North Carolina -5.5 v. Miami-FL||Top||82-65||Win||100||10 h 58 m||Show|
Late action this evening in the ACC as North Carolina takes on Miami Florida. North Carolina opened tourney action yesterday with a nice win over Syracuse, 78-59. The Tar Heels need that win after finishing the regular season with two straight losses. Miami plays their first game of the tourney after finishing regular play with a four game win streak. Both teams will likely make the NCAA tournament, but a higher seed may be at stake here today. I'm laying the points with the Tar Heels who looked good yesterday and have some momentum after playing on this floor one game. Take North Carolina.
|03-08-18||Texas v. Texas Tech -6.5||69-73||Loss||-105||8 h 34 m||Show|
Big 12 tourney action has Texas and Texas Tech facing off today. Texas opened tourney play with a win over Iowa State yesterday, 68-64. The Longhorns failed to cover the 5.5 point line though. Texas Tech got a bye the first night and plays its first game tonight. The Red Raiders finished the regular season with a win over TCU, 79-75. Texas Tech likely will earn a NCAA spot with their 23 wins. However, Texas will not with just 19 wins and 13 losses. The Longhorns can't win this tournament so in reality they are waiting for the NIT tournament. Tech is the better team and my number show me that they should be a bigger favorite here this evening. Lay the points with Tech here today.
|03-08-18||Boston College +5.5 v. Clemson||82-90||Loss||-102||3 h 57 m||Show|
Boston College blew a huge lead on Wednesday vs NC State, but held on for the win and cover, 91-87. The Eagles were up by 14 points mid way through the second half before they were tied up around the five minute mark. A late surge got the win and now the team plays Clemson today in the quarterfinals. The Eagles have now gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games and 6-1-1 in their last eight. Clemson plays its first game of the conference tournament. The Tigers finished the regular season with a loss to Syracuse, 52-55. In addition they were just 1-3 ATS down the stretch. Clemson has not been good at covering away from home, going jut 2-7 ATS in their last nine attempts. I feel this is just too many points today to lay to a confident Boston College club. I'm taking the dog here in Boston College.
|03-08-18||Louisville +6.5 v. Virginia||58-75||Loss||-109||2 h 35 m||Show|
Early action today in the ACC between Louisville and top ranked Virginia. Louisville won their opener yesterday over Florida State, 82-74. Now they face a Virginia team they played one week ago. In that contest, Louisville came up one point short in a 66-67 loss to the Cavaliers. Virginia plays its opener in conference tourney action today. The Cavs have that great defense and they need it because they just don't score a lot on the offensive side of the ball. That being said, they have trouble covering the bigger lines, evidenced by their 1-3 ATS mark their last four games and 2-4 mark the last six. Today, Virginia has to lay 6.5 to a very good offensive Louisville team. My recent form numbers have this game under four points. I like Louisville here this morning as they get 6.5 points in what should be another close game.
|03-07-18||Ole Miss v. South Carolina -2.5||84-85||Loss||-110||8 h 16 m||Show|
Ole Miss likely looking forward to a merciful end to their season here today. The Rebels unlikely to even make the NIT with their 12-19 record. Ole Miss has lost three straight games and 10 of their last 11 games. The Rebels haven't fared any better vs the number, where they are 1-10 ATS their last 11 games. South Carolina is 3-2 in their last five games. But more important is that the Gamecocks have covered six straight games. South Carolina a small favorite here tonight at just three points. Not sure how Ole Miss can cover this one at such a short number. Play South Carolina.
|03-07-18||Fordham v. George Washington -6||72-78||Push||0||8 h 40 m||Show|
Atlantic 10 opening round action has Fordham playing against George Washington. Fordham brings a six game losing streak into today's contest. In addition, the Rams are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games. They played GW just a few days ago and were blown out at George Washington, 56-72. George Washington lost last time out at Dayton, 78-88. It was only the team's second loss in the last six games. GW is also 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. The line has George Washington 6.5 tonight. My recent numbers have GW as anywhere from eight to 20 points depending on the situation. Fordham just not playing well enough to back here tonight. I'm taking George Washington to move on to the next round.
|03-06-18||Southern Utah v. Idaho State -2||76-68||Loss||-102||7 h 36 m||Show|
Big Sky First round action today has Idaho State and Southern Utah meeting. Southern Utah has won just once in their last six games. In addition, they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Idaho State has been much kinder to bettors, going 3-1 ATS their last four and 6-2 ATS their last eight games. Idaho State just two point favorites tonight, while my numbers bring them in at 10 points in recent play. Idaho State has been the much more consistent team covering this year. Play Idaho State.
|03-06-18||Wake Forest v. Syracuse -4.5||Top||64-73||Win||100||5 h 7 m||Show|
ACC first round action tonight has Wake Forest playing Syracuse. Syracuse gets to play much closer to home with this tournament being played in Brooklyn, NY. Wake Forest has struggled, losing two straight and six of their last eight. In addition, the Demon Deacons have covered just one time in their last six tries. Syracuse is coming off a home win vs Clemson, 55-52. The Orangemen are 3-2 ATS in their last five games and 5-3 ATS in their last eight. Should be a close game, but Syracuse get the play tonight by virtue of this being in their backyard. Play Syracuse.
|03-06-18||Stony Brook +13.5 v. Vermont||51-70||Loss||-105||5 h 6 m||Show|
American East action has two teams that don't get board betting time much during the season. Stony Brook had covered this year vs Michigan State and then covered in last game vs Albany, winning 69-60 as a 9.5-point dog. Vermont had more chances vs the number this year and ended up at 3-3 ATS. They are coming off a win vs Maine, but failed to cover the 20.5-point line. Stony Brook and Vermont have already met twice this year with Stony Brook coming in under today's 13 point line. Don't expect a full out tonight from Vermont who will want to conserve energy for tomorrow's Championship game. Take Stony Brook.