|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-20-19||Patriots +3 v. Chiefs||37-31||Win||100||141 h 32 m||Show|
When we first look at these two AFC teams we see two offensively explosive clubs. You have the highest scoring team in the NFL in the Chiefs and the Bill Belichick offense of the Patriots. However, what I am looking at here today is very cold weather. Right now the weather for this game on the 20th is going to be in the low teens, around 14 degrees. The winds should be too bad though, anywhere from 4 to 7 mph. Still, cold weather makes it much more challenging to score points. We have Brady and Bellichick once again in the title game. They rolled by one of the best road teams in the playoffs last week in the Chargers. Now they face rookie and likely NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes. If there is one thing the Patriots have done and done well is win these types of games. Now, you are giving Brady points? That's too much for me to pass on. I'm taking the Patriots and these points as I fully expect them to what they have been doing for years now, win big games. Play New England.
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 56||37-31||Loss||-110||141 h 32 m||Show|
When we first look at these two AFC teams we see two offensively explosive clubs. You have the highest scoring team in the NFL in the Chiefs and the Bill Belichick offense of the Patriots. However, what I am looking at here today is very cold weather. Right now the weather for this game on the 20th is going to be in the low teens, around 14 degrees. The winds should be too bad though, anywhere from 4 to 7 mph. Still, cold weather makes it much more challenging to score points. The total in this game is 56 1/2 so I'm going UNDER with the cold weather. PLAY UNDER.
|01-13-19||Eagles v. Saints OVER 51||Top||14-20||Loss||-108||69 h 52 m||Show|
Divisional Series Game of the Year: It wasn't that long ago that these teams met and the Saints pummeled the Eagles, 48-7. So what's different this time? The Eagles are a different team this time around. The Eagles still have the third worst pass defense in the league and now have to face Drew Brees and Company. Even QB Mitchel Trubisky threw for 303 yards in the Bears loss to the Eagles last week. Last time Brees threw for 363 yards vs the Eagles and could easily eclipse that this time. But this time, the Eagles have a rejuvenated Nick Foles. Foles seems to come alive come playoff time. The Saints haven't faced Foles since 2013. Foles has won nine of 10 starts in this late season period. Plus, RB Darren Sproles is going to play this time, something the Eagles lacked last time. So for this game, I'm going to take the OVER. The total is right at 51 or 51 1/2. Last time these teams met the game went under the 56.5 total as they came up just short with 55 points. This time, I expect the Eagles to get much more points the way the team is playing with Foles. And, Brees will still put up points for the Saints with that explosive offense they have. My best play of this round is the OVER.
|01-13-19||Chargers v. Patriots -4||28-41||Win||100||71 h 46 m||Show|
This is a bad spot for the Chargers. First, another cross country trip. Last week it was to Baltimore then back home then back to New England for this week's game. That's not the only reason for the selection the weather will not be what the Chargers are used to. The high will be in the 20's and the low in the teens with a 10% chance of some snow. Meanwhile, HC Bill Belichick and team have had a week off to prepare. They have outscored opponents at home this year by 16 points a game. The reign of Bellichick and Brady will soon be coming to an end as father time creeps up on them. But in this matchup, I have to go with Belichick against head coach Anthony Lynn of the Chargers. I just think the line is too short and I might get shorter so I'm going with the New England Patriots to win this game by a touchdown or more. Take New England.
|01-12-19||Cowboys +7.5 v. Rams||22-30||Loss||-119||8 h 22 m||Show|
This game will feature the two best running backs in the league with the Cowboys Ezekiel Elliot and the Rams Todd Gurley. The Cowboys held off the Seahawks last week at home, 24-22 while the Rams had a week off to rest. Dallas QB Dak Prescot insists his health is good despite coming up limping in a TD run vs the Seahawks lasta week. Pro Bowler Jared Goff could be in the running for MVP this year with Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs. Though Goff finished the season with a three-game slump by his standards. The Rams led the NFC in points per game and total yards this season. The Rams defense has been suspect despite some huge names on the unit. I have to give a big edge to the Rams offense here, but the Cowboys defense is better and this time of year I like defenses. I'm going to take the points with the Cowboys and see if their defense can keep them close and possibly pull the upset win.
|01-12-19||Colts +6 v. Chiefs||13-31||Loss||-115||125 h 24 m||Show|
The Colts were my biggest play in the NFL Wild Card round of the playoffs and they didn't dissapoint with a dominating performance over the Texans. I believe that this Colts team right now might be the best team in the playoffs. They have a great QB in Andrew Luck, they have a excellent rushing attack with Mack and the defense is playing excellent. As for the Chiefs, yes they were arguably the best team this year in the NFL and have maybe the MVP at QB in Patrick Mahomes. But this team has a horrible defense, one that the Colts should be able to score on easily with their balanced attack. Plus, without Hunt in the backfield, this isn't the same dynamic team we saw earlier int the season. I'm sorry, but 6 points is just many points to give what I see as the best team in the playoffs right now in the Colts. Play Indianapolis in what I believe is an outright Shocker straight-up win!
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson +6||16-44||Win||100||128 h 41 m||Show|
I can make a case for either team in this Championship game. Both are great teams, both have great offenses and top defenses. Though I do give a slight edge on defense to the Clemson Tigers and an edge in QB to Alabama. Still, this should be a great contest to watch. These teams have met each of the last three seasons with Alabama taking two of the games and Clemson one game. Before that you have to go back to 2008 and before that you have to go all the way back to 1975 for the previous meeting. The Tigers have played great on neutral fields,d going 13-3 ATS their last 16 games. The Tide are 7-2 in their last nine vs the ACC, but just 1-5 ATS their last six times playing in January. I like the points here with this great Clemson defense. I look for a close, defensive game and when I can take 6 to 7 points with this kind of defense, I will. Play Clemson and enjoy the show.
|01-06-19||Chargers +3 v. Ravens||23-17||Win||100||88 h 26 m||Show|
Baltimore survived a scare last week, barely getting by Cleveland and earning a spot in the playoffs this week. Cleveland was driving for what could have been a winning field goal, but they came up short on downs and the Ravens are in and the Steelers were out. The Ravens won their last three games, but covered just two of those. Statistically, the defense is the best in the league, but the Chargers aren't far behind at number 9. These teams have met only twice before this season in the last 10 years, with the Ravens winning in 2015, 29-26 and the Chargers winning ijn 2014, 34-33. The Chargers covering both those games. The meeting this season was just two weeks ago and resulted in a Ravens win and cover, 22-10. The Chargers had their best season since a 13-3 finish in 2009 despite opening the season 1-2. Lamar Jackson replaced Joe Flacco seven weeks ago and closed the season with a 6-1 record behind Jackson. With two good defenses and equal offenses, I expect this to be a close game. However, with Rivers experience in the playoffs that's a big edge over Jackson. I'll take the small points here with the Chargers.
|01-05-19||Seahawks +2 v. Cowboys||22-24||Push||0||72 h 37 m||Show|
The Seahawks enter today's contest at Dallas winners of six of their last seven games. They are also one of the better covering teams, going 5-2-1 ATS their last eight games and 8-3-1 ATS their last 12 games. The Hawks are also 4-1 ATS in their last five away games. The Cowboys won at the Giants on Sunday in a meaningless game, 36-35. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs a winning road team. Getting a few points here with the Hawks, but I look for an outright win vs the Cowboys. Play Seattle.
|01-05-19||Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 42.5||22-24||Win||100||72 h 36 m||Show|
The Seahawks enter today's contest at Dallas winners of six of their last seven games. They are also one of the better covering teams, going 5-2-1 ATS their last eight games and 8-3-1 ATS their last 12 games. The Hawks are also 4-1 ATS in their last five away games. The Cowboys won at the Giants on Sunday in a meaningless game, 36-35. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs a winning road team. This one I'm looking at the OVER. The Hawks are 7-1 O/U in their last eight games; 6-1 O/U in their last seven vs the NFC. They are also 4-1 O/U in their last five playoff road games. The Cowboys have also been a good over team, 5-2 O/U in their last seven home games. These teams have only met three times in the last 10 years and only once with Dak Prescot at QB. This isn't the same defensive team we have seen out of Seattle in recent years, but they are still good. I look for this game to produce some points with the total at 42 1/2. Both teams should be able to score here and that means an OVER.
|01-05-19||Colts +2 v. Texans||Top||21-7||Win||100||68 h 57 m||Show|
Indianapolis won their big game with the Titans on Sunday night to earn their spot into today's playoff game. The Colts are playing very well, winners of four straight and nine of their last 10 games. The Colts offense has also been very good behind QB Andrew Luck, now ranked 7th in the NFL. The Colts defense is also solid at No 11 in the NFL. As for Houston, they have the no 12 defense and the No 15 offense. Houston closed out their season with an easy win on Sunday against the punchless Jaguars, 20-3. Still, the team has lost two of their last four games including at home to these Colts, 21-24 four weeks ago. The Colts are now 5-0-1 in their last six meetings in Houston and 8-2-3 overall vs the Texans the last 13 meetings. The road team is also 7-1-2 the last 10 meetings. I like the Colts here plus the points.
|01-01-19||Texas +13.5 v. Georgia||28-21||Win||100||22 h 30 m||Show|
What we find a lot in these bowl games is motivation to play. Some teams have key players sitting out as not to jeopardize their potential pro careers. Other teams have coaches moving on and some teams just are happy to be there. I have to wonder how much Georgia has their heart in this game today after finishing fifth in the playoff picture and watching Notre Dame get demolished by Clemson. After letting Alabama slip past them in the SEC Championship, Georgia can't be too happy with this spot in the Sugar Bowl against Texas. Georgia could very likely be the No 1 seed entering next season, but for today, I have to think the points here are the way to go. Georgia is a great team and could have been a National Champion this year, but as for this game. I just don't see their heart being in it. Take the big points with Texas.
|01-01-19||Washington v. Ohio State -6.5||23-28||Loss||-105||18 h 46 m||Show|
Ohio State returns to their 15th Rose Bowl today as they take on Pac-12 Champion Washington. Ohio State hasn't been to the Rose Bowl since 2010 when they beat Oreg0on, 26-17. There will be extra incentive here today as Ohio State HC Urban Meyer will retire after this game. Have to believe the team will want him to go out a winner. Washington also makes its 15th appearance in the Rose Bowl, but the last being in 2001 when they defeated Purdue, 34-24. Both these teams boast great offenses and that should be on display here today. My difference in this game is the emotions that Ohio State will play with as Meyer's says goodbye. One last hurrah for the Buckeyes and Urban Meyer here on Tuesday. Play Ohio State.
|01-01-19||LSU v. Central Florida +7.5||Top||40-32||Loss||-110||14 h 46 m||Show|
Once again I am looking for motivation in these bowl games. We have a disinterested SEC team in LSU going against a Central Florida team looking to make it two undefeated seasons in a row. Last season the UFC Knights completed their perfect season with a win over another SEC team in the Peach Bowl, beating Auburn 34-27. Can they do it again this year? UFC will be without their star QB in McKenzie Milton. Milton got hurt in the season finale. That means Darriel Mack Jr will be starting and he has been a very good fill-in. The big question is whether or not UFC can stop LSU. LSU isn't known as an offensive powerhouse, however they do play a physical game and that could hurt UFC. They do have Greg McCrae running the ball still, ask McCrae rushed for 1101 yards and 9 TD's on the season. I don't know if UFC can win outright here today, but I do know they will have enough to stay with the Tigers and that 7 1/2 points they are getting looks like a lot to me. Play Central Florida.
|12-31-18||NC State +7.5 v. Texas A&M||13-52||Loss||-129||26 h 9 m||Show|
Gator Bowl action in the late game today has 9-3 NC State playing against 19th ranked Texas A&M. NC State getting a TD here in this spot. The Wolfpack have been a very good bowl team, going 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 bowl visits. Texas A&M has an explosive offense, as we saw in their last game against LSU where they won 74-72. In fact, the Aggies have at least 38 points in each of their last three games. NC State can also put up the points, scoring 52, 34 and 58 in their last three games. The Wolfpack has the 28th ranked offense while A&M is ranked 20th. With both teams able to score in bunches here, I like taking the touchdown with the points. Take NC State.
|12-31-18||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Cincinnati||31-35||Win||100||19 h 39 m||Show|
Cincinnati has not been a good bowl team in recent seasons, evidenced by their 2-7 ATS mark in their last nine bowls. That includes an 0-4-1 ATS mark their last five December games. Can't say that about the Virginia Tech Hokies, who are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 December games. Cincinnati does have the 24th ranked offense while Va Tech is ranked 49th. Cincinnati also has the 10th ranked defense with the Hokies coming in at 95th. Tech did ramp up the scoring their last two games of the season with 34 points against Virginia and 41 against Marshall. I expect an offensive oriented contest here today. Still, can't disregard how bad Cincy is in bowl games. I'm going to take the points with Virginia Tech.
|12-30-18||Bears v. Vikings -6||24-10||Loss||-101||7 h 33 m||Show|
This game comes down to one fact, if the vikings win they are in the playoffs. If they lose, they likely won't make the playoffs unless they get some help from the Redskins. The 11-4 Bears are in the playoffs and will host a game. They can get the second seed in the NFC if they beat the Vikings and the Rams lose to the 49ers. That scenario really isn't all that likely since I don't expect the Rams to lose to San Francisco. That could mean depending on the Rams score that the second half of this game is really going to see 2nd and 3rd stringers for the Bears. I'm taking the Vikings here as I fully expect to see the Bears resting players come the 2nd half. Play Minnesota.
|12-30-18||Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 42||23-9||Win||100||49 h 28 m||Show|
The Broncos look to close out a tough season here today. Their offense hasn't been much again this season, despite adding a new QB in Case Keenum. This Broncos team hasn't scored above 24 points in any of their last eight games. The 11-4 Chargers sit second in the AFC East despite having tied for the overall best record in the East. A win here today and there are still possibilities depending upon the Chiefs and Raiders outcome. A loss and they will be the 5th seed with likely the 2nd best record. It's highly unlikely that the Raiders can pull the upset, so realistically the Bolts have to figure on that top Wild Card spot and a road game in week one of the playoffs. Don't expect a lot of output here today from either team. LA has to figure they are a Wild Card team and the Broncos, well they are making tee times. Play the UNDER
|12-30-18||Lions v. Packers -7.5||Top||31-0||Loss||-108||46 h 4 m||Show|
This last week of the NFL regular season you have to look past numbers and figures and look for what motivates a team in this week. Some teams have the playoffs to look forward, while others (like these two) teams are just playing out the season. So why do I like my side so much here today? Simple. Aaron Rodgers has had a tough season. He's been injured, he's been hit hard all year and he's been without at times any decent receivers. This definitely not the type of season that Rodgers is used to having. I believe that he will want to finish this season strong and put his detractors doubts to rest. The Lions have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, they haven't been covering at all and Mathew Stafford has rumors surrounding him that he will be traded. Everything points to a Packers complete blowout here today. One of my favorite games of the season right here today is on the Packers.
|12-30-18||Dolphins v. Bills -5||17-42||Win||100||3 h 7 m||Show|
Anytime the warm weather Dolphins have to go to Upstate New York in late December to play - look at the weather. The Dolphins are notorious for not playing well in bad or cold weather. So what are we looking at here on Sunday in Buffalo? It's going to be in the mid to low 30's with a slight wind. No precipitation is expected, but it will be on the cool side. Josh Allen has looked very good for the Bills this season, especially running the ball. The Bills have one of the best defenses in the league to go with their young QB. The Dolphins have lost two straight and it's another year without making the playoffs for Miami. Bills looking for some playback here today as I expect them to beat the Dolphins.
|12-29-18||Oklahoma v. Alabama -13.5||Top||34-45||Loss||-110||115 h 17 m||Show|
The Orange Bowl will have No 1 Alabama vs No 4 Oklahoma for a spot in the finals of the Bowl Championship. The Crimson Tide is 10-4 S/U and 8-5-1 ATS in Bowls under Nick Saban. The Tide have been installed as a 14-point favorite here. Alabama had little trouble this season, beating eight teams that made it to the bowls postseason. The Tide were chalks of 21-points or more 11 times this season and still were 8-5 ATS. These are the two best offenses in the country, however, the big difference is on defense where Alabama is ranked 6th in the country and Oklahoma is ranked 109th. This is going to be the difference here today. The Tide will roll with the points and while Oklahoma is one of the best offensively, I don't see them staying with the Tide. The Sooners are just 3-9 ATS their last 12 neutral site games. I expect the Tide to roll into the Championship game here today. Play Alabama.
|12-29-18||Notre Dame v. Clemson -12||3-30||Win||100||52 h 28 m||Show|
The winner of this Cotton Bowl matchup between No2 Clemson and No 3 Notre Dame heads to the NCAA football championship game. This game comes down to the Irish offensive line against the great Clemson defensive line. Who controls this game will be key to a win here today. Clemson is only one of two teams who have a top five scoring offense and a top five scoring defense. While this is the fourth consecutive trip to the final four for Clemson, this will be the first for the Irish. Clemson has this stingy defense led by their line that allowed a nation's best 2.4 rushing yards per game. Clemson is led by RB Travis Etinne, who rushed for 1,464 yards this season and 21 TD's. I will be backing Clemson here today. I love their defense, have done so since day one of the season. I don't think the Irish will be able to establish the run and that means a Clemson win. Take Clemson.
|12-28-18||Syracuse -1 v. West Virginia||34-18||Win||100||30 h 44 m||Show|
Syracuse ended their regular season with a win at Boston College, 42-21 as 7-point dogs. The Orange got shutdown by Notre Dame the week prior, but other than that game, Syraucse has scored at least 37 points in six of the last seven games. This will not be the same West Virginia squad that finished the regular season. QB Will Grier and OT Yodny Cajuste both opted to not play in this game and keep from possible injury as they both look forward to the NFL draft. That means QB Jack Allison will take over the starting duties. A far cry from one of the best QB's in the country that Grier had become. Considering that Syracuse is scoring a lot of points, I'm not sure West Virginia will be able to keep up against one of the best passing offenses in Syracuse. I'm taking Syracuse here as I don't even expect the rest of the West Virginia team to show up. Take Syracuse.
|12-27-18||Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +2.5||3-35||Win||100||6 h 45 m||Show|
Miami closed out their season with a pair of wins over Virginia Tech and Pitt. However, prior to those two wins, the Hurricanes had lost four straight both S/U and ATS. Wisconsin ended the season with a loss at home to Minnesota, 15-37. The Badgers were also a bit shaky the second half of the season losing three of their last five games. The Canes have not been a very good bowl play in recent years, evidenced by their 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven bowls. In addition, they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine neutral site games and 1-5 ATS in their last six vs the Big 10. Miami doesn't have a very good offense, ranked just 93rd in the country, while Wisconsin ranks 43rd. Miami does have a very good defense, ranked 2nd in total yards with Wisconsin coming in at 40th. It's often difficult to determine which team is motivated in these meaningless bowl games. However, with the Cans having such a dismal bowl spread record, it appears they are not usually motivated. I'm taking Wisconsin here today.
|12-26-18||TCU v. California -1||10-7||Loss||-105||53 h 26 m||Show|
TCU has normally been known for their stellar defenses. While this year's edition might not be as good defensively, the offense has not been all that good - ranked just 94th in the country. The defense was a respectable 28th while Cal actually came in better at 16th. Though the Cal offense wasn't quite as good at 113th. The Cal defense held each of their last six opponents to 23 or less points. In fact, four of those were under 20. The offense is where they struggled, scoring more than 15 points just one time in their last five games. TCU also has some offensive problems, scoring 16 or less in three of their last four games and 17 or less in six of their last nine games. This game likely to be a low scoring affair and I'll take the better defensive team in this one. That's Cal.
|12-26-18||Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5||Top||34-10||Loss||-101||50 h 41 m||Show|
Minnesota has not been good to bettors as they did not cover two games in a row since week 3 of the season. In fact, they were just 3-4 S/U the last seven weeks of the season. The offense ranked just 86th in the country has to go against a Georgia Tech offense that is 53rd. The Gophers were 64th defensively while Georgia Tech was 46th. Tech was 5-1 ATS in their last six December games and 4-0-1 ATS their last five neutral site games. Tech holds all the edges in this matchup and I look for a mismatch here as the Gophers just don't have enough to stay with a very good Yellow Jackets team. Play Georgia Tech.
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5||31-38||Win||100||25 h 16 m||Show|
The Seahawks continue their playoff push today at home against the Chiefs. Seattle is 8-6 and right now has the top NFC Wild card spot. That means their playoff chances are in their hands. And really, they should make it with the Chiefs here at home today and the Cardinals visiting next week. Still, they would love to beat the Chiefs today. Every since Kansas City lost RB Hunt to his off-field issues, they have not looked like the team we saw earlier in the season. The Chiefs scored 27 in a win two weeks ago at home vs the Ravens and 28 in their loss last week at home to the Chargers. A far cry from the 40's and 50's we have become accustomed to seeing them score. The Chiefs have the second worst defense in the league and now face the fourth highest rated QB in Russel Wilson. The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in their last five games. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS their last six overall. The Hawks are also 23-10-1 ATS their last 34 games in December. I see these teams heading in opposite directions right now. I'm taking the Seahawks here today.
|12-23-18||Steelers v. Saints UNDER 53||28-31||Loss||-110||21 h 19 m||Show|
The Steelers looking to keep their playoff hopes alive this week. They had that big home win last week against the Patriots 17-10, doing so without starting RB James Conner. This coming after that road loss the prior week against Oakland, 21-24. With just two games left this one is important if they hope to stay ahead of the Ravens. The defense stepped it up last week, holding Tom Brady and the Pats to just 10 points. The Saints had to hold on last week to beat the Panthers, 12-9. The Saints offense continued to struggle as Drew Brees has thrown only two TD's and three INT's combined in his last three games. The Steelers are now 15-36 O/U in their last 51 road games and 1-4 O/U their last five overall. The Steelers defense has looked much better while the Saints offense seems to have lost that swagger. I'm taking the UNDER here today as the Saints will have to struggle on offense again. Take the UNDER.
|12-23-18||Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 44||31-9||Win||100||21 h 60 m||Show|
What in the world has gone wrong with the LA Rams? The Rams where cruising through the NFL for the most part until they ran into the Bears defense two weeks ago and looked all out of sync. The Rams scored a season-low six points in their loss at Chicago. Then last week at home they once again looked out of sync, losing to the Eagles 23-30. At one point they trailed 13-30 in the game. QB Jaret Goff does not look like the sharp QB we saw for most of the season. The Rams still have the second ranked offense in the league. They will face the worst offense in the league today in Arizona. The Cardinals have not scored more than 21 points in any of their last nine games and only one time this entire season have they score more than that. Their highest score of the year, a 28-18 win in week five against San Francisco. It's not hard to figure that the Cardinals have been a UNDER team. They are 7-20 O/U their last 27 at home and 6-15 O/U their last 21 vs the NFC. With the Rams offense looking out of sorts and the worst offense here in Arizona, I'm playing UNDER today.
|12-23-18||Texans v. Eagles -1.5||30-32||Win||100||18 h 56 m||Show|
The Philadelphia Eagles kept their playoff hopes alive with a huge win last week at the LA Rams, 30-23. QB Nick Foles started in place of injured Carson Wentz and just like he did last year at LA, pulled out the win. Can he do what he did last year and lead this team back into the playoffs? The Eagles have won three of their last four games and could easily be 4-0 if not for that OT loss at Dallas a few weeks ago. They play at home against Houston today and close out at Washington. Both games very winable. Baring a total collapse, the Texans should win the AFC South as they lead the Colts and Titans by two games with two to play. Houston plays at Philly today and then closes at home against Jacksonville next week. The Texans have not done very well on real grass, going 2-8 ATS their last 10. In addition, they are just 1-8-1 ATS their last 10 games in December. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS their last nine at home vs a winning road team. This game has much more meaning for the Eagles and with Foles looking much more confident behind center, I'm taking the home club here today. Play Philadelphia.
|12-23-18||Vikings -6 v. Lions||27-9||Win||100||18 h 55 m||Show|
The Vikings are still in the hunt for a NFC Wild Card spot. The Bears will take the division, but at 7-6-1 the Vikings right now hold the second Wild Card by virtue of that tie with Green Bay earlier this season. The Vikings snapped their two-game losing streak with a blowout win at home last week against the Dolphins, 41-17. The Vikings are 13-5-1 ATS their last 19 games against teams with a losing record. They are also 20-9 ATS their last 29 games in December. The Lions are in last place in the NFC North at 5-9-1. The Detroit offense has been horrible, despite one of the better QB's in Mathew Stafford. The Lions have scored 17 points or less in each of the last four weeks. In addition, they have not scored more than 22 points in any of their last eight weeks. It won't get any easier today against the fourth ranked defense in the league in Minnesota. The Lions have the 24th ranked offense. The Lions just can't seem to find the right combinations on offense and today the Vikings will keep them down as they look to put a hold on that Wild Card spot. Take Minnesota.
|12-22-18||Louisiana Tech +1 v. Hawaii||31-14||Win||100||21 h 58 m||Show|
Hawaii bowl here this evening has Louisiana Tech vs Hawaii. Tech comes in on a two-game losing streak. They lost to Southern Miss on Nov 17th and then in their last game at home to Western Kentucky, 15-30. La Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six bowl games and 15-2 ATS their last 17 games coming off a double-digit home loss. Hawaii has not been good to bettors, posing a 15-34-2 ATS mark their last 51 games overall. In addition, they are just 9-23 ATS their last 32 against a team with a winning record. This will be the Tech defense against the Hawaii offense. Tech will get plenty of points and if they can keep Hawaii from scoring in bunches, then they get the cover. Take Louisiana Tech.
|12-22-18||Ravens v. Chargers UNDER 42||22-10||Win||100||30 h 25 m||Show|
Late Saturday game here on Saturday as the Baltimore Ravens make the long trip West to take on the LA Chargers. The Ravens in a fight for the AFC North with Pittsburgh. The Steelers lead the division by just a half game over the Ravens. Steelers have to play at New Orleans so there's a real chance the Ravens take over first place with a win here today. The Ravens have the top ranked NFL defense with just 290 yards allowed per game. The Chargers are known for their offense, but also have a good defense, ranked 8th allowing 329 yards per game. Baltimore held a very good Tampa Bay offense to just 12 points last week in their 20-12 win. The only team the last four weeks to score more than 17 points vs the Ravens was the Chiefs. The Chargers had that dramatic win at Kansas City last week. LA scored a last second touchdown and opted for a two-point try to win outright. They connected and stole a win at Kansas City, 29-28. Despite being tied for the best record in the AFC at 11-3, the Chargers are in 2nd place in the AFC West behind the Chiefs. That means right now they hold the top Wild Card spot. I'll be looking at the UNDER in this game. The Chargers have been a good under team. They are 1-5 O/U their last six at home; 6-15 O/U the last 21 vs the AFC; 6-19-1 O/U their last 26 in December and 3-11-1 O/U their last 15 at home vs a team with a winning record. The Ravens defense should keep them close here today. Play the UNDER.
|12-22-18||Ravens +4.5 v. Chargers||22-10||Win||100||9 h 28 m||Show|
Late Saturday game here on Saturday as the Baltimore Ravens make the long trip West to take on the LA Chargers. The Ravens in a fight for the AFC North with Pittsburgh. The Steelers lead the division by just a half game over the Ravens. Steelers have to play at New Orleans so there's a real chance the Ravens take over first place with a win here today. The Ravens have the top ranked NFL defense with just 290 yards allowed per game. The Chargers are known for their offense, but also have a good defense, ranked 8th allowing 329 yards per game. Baltimore held a very good Tampa Bay offense to just 12 points last week in their 20-12 win. The only team the last four weeks to score more than 17 points vs the Ravens was the Chiefs. The Ravens are 18-7-4 ATS in their last 29 road games when facing a home team with a winning record. They are also 7-3-1 ATS overall their last 11 road games. The Chargers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and 2-8 ATS their last 10 games played on Saturday. The road team has covered four of the last five in this series and the dog is also 4-1 the last five. I'm taking the road dog here today. Play Baltimore.
|12-22-18||Buffalo v. Troy +1.5||32-42||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
Buffalo had an outstanding season in the MAC, though they did struggle toward the end. The Bulls lost two of their last three games including the MAC Championship to Northern Illinois, 29-30 as 3.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, Troy used a very good defense to get into today's bowl game. Troy is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games and 42-20-2 ATS vs a winning team. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five neutral site games. This game being played in Troy's backyard gives them a built-in home field advantage today. Though this game has gone to almost pick, I like Troy to take today's game.
|12-22-18||Houston v. Army -6.5||14-70||Win||100||5 h 37 m||Show|
Army having one of its best seasons in years.The Black Knights coming off that big win over their service rivals Navy have won eight straight games. While the Black Knights are ranked only 82nd in total yards, that's because this is a running team. They average 384 yards per game on the ground and will keep the ball out of the Houston hands today with their ground and pound game. Houston has the 7th ranked offense and they are balanced with 228 yards on the ground and 301 yards through the air. However, their defense is ranked 124th and that is going to be the problem here today. They allow 198 yards on the ground and that will not bode well against one of the best rushing attacks in the nation. This is not a good matchup for Houston today. They won't be able to stop Army and keep them from controlling the clock. I'm taking Army today.
|12-21-18||BYU v. Western Michigan OVER 51.5||49-18||Win||100||2 h 6 m||Show|
Both of these teams have very good offenses. BYU has scored 27, 45 and 35 points in each of their last three games. Western Michigan has scored 40 or more points in five games this season. Their defense isn't all that good either, allowing 35 or more in seven games this season. Western Michigan Broncos are 4-0 O/U their last four games and 4-0 O/U their last four on fieldturf. It will be cold tonight in Boise, ID with the temps in the 20's but with a light wind and no precipitation the conditions should be good for both offenses. I like the OVER here tonight.
|12-19-18||Ohio v. San Diego State +3||Top||27-0||Loss||-115||19 h 25 m||Show|
Ohio makes the long trip West to play in the Frisco Bowl here tonight while San Diego State makes the short trek North. This will be the first meeting ever between these two football teams. This game pits the strong Ohio U running game against the stingy San Diego State running defense. Ohio U ranks 16th nationally in offense and averages 262 yards per game on the ground. San Diego State ranks 21st defensively and allows just 95 yards per game on the ground. When it comes to these Bowl games, I tend to stick with the better defensive teams. That's just what I'm doing here today. I'm taking San Diego State.
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers +7||Top||12-9||Win||100||20 h 7 m||Show|
The Saints path through the playoffs got a bit easier with the Rams losing on Sunday night. The Saints are now 11-2 while the Rams are 11-3. Plus, the Saints have already beaten the Rams. The Panthers are not out of a Wild Card yet, but can't afford a loss tonight. The Panthers are 6-7 and you have three other teams at 7-7 for that final Wild Card spot. The Saints rebounded from their loss at Dallas two weeks ago with a win last week at Tampa Bay, 28-14. New Orleans plays its third straight road game here tonight. Carolina has lost five straight games, with four of those losses on the road. They return home here tonight where they are 5-1 S/U this season. The Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. The dog has done well in this series, covering seven of the last eight between these teams. Panthers are tough at home and they will fight for that final playoff spot. I like the points here on their home field. Take Carolina.
|12-16-18||Eagles +14 v. Rams||30-23||Win||100||21 h 51 m||Show|
Big Sunday night game here today as the reeling Rams take on the Eagles. The Rams are 11-2 and still fighting with the Saints (11-2) for that all important home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With their loss to the Saints, the Rams will need some help from someone. The Rams struggled last week against that mighty Bears defense, held to a season-low six-points. In fact, that was the first time all season the Rams have scored less than 23 points. The Rams have also covered just one of their last six games and are 2-6-1 ATS their last nine. For the Eagles, it looks like QB Carson Wentz is done for the season with a back injury. That means in comes Super Bowl hero Nick Foles who led the Eagles down the stretch last year. The Rams are now 2-8-1 ATS their last 11 home games vs a losing team. The Eagles have done very well vs the Rams, going 10-1 ATS the last 11 meetings. Too many points here for a Rams team that needs to show me they are caving in late in the season. I'm taking Foles and the Eagles here tonight.
|12-16-18||Cowboys v. Colts -3||Top||0-23||Win||100||14 h 32 m||Show|
The Dallas Cowboys hold a two-game lead in the NFC East with three games to play. The Cowboys had to go to OT last week to dispatch Philadelphia, 29-23. Now they have the Colts, Bucs and close out at the Giants. They could easily lose two of these games if not careful. The Colts bounced back from their 0-6 loss at Jacksonville two weeks ago with a big win at Houston last week, 24-21. The Colts can't catch Houston for the AFC South lead, but they are in the running for the last AFC Wildcard. Right now the Chargers have the first wildcard and four teams are tied with a 7-6 record. The Colts have been good at home against winning teams, evidenced by their 16-5-1 ATS mark their last 22 games. The favorite and the home team have each covered four of the last five in this series. I like the Colts and Andrew Luck here in today's game. Play Indianapolis.
|12-16-18||Lions v. Bills -2.5||13-14||Loss||-105||14 h 32 m||Show|
The Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills won't be going to the postseason this year. That doesn't mean they won't be playing this game tough. The Lions are 5-8 and in last place in the NFC North. The Lions snapped a two-game losing streak with a win at Arizona last week, 17-3. Detroit is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. The Buffalo Bills are playing tough after a rough start to the season. The Bills lost at home last week to the Jets, 23-27, but have won two of their last four. QB Josh Allen has this team competing well for head coach Sean McDermott. Since his return from injury, Allen has rushed 31 times for 335 yards, something that gives opposing teams fits. The Bills defense has also been amazing, as they lead the league now in total yards. They also have the best yardage differential in the NFL the last five games. The Lions are banged up these days with Stafford having back injuries and problems at running back. You have to go back eight weeks to find the last time the Lions scored more than 22 points and that was October 21st. I really like this situation for the Bills. Their defense is playing great and they face a hurt Lions team that isn't scoring anyways. Perfect spot for a big win today. Take Buffalo.
|12-16-18||Packers +5.5 v. Bears||17-24||Loss||-115||14 h 32 m||Show|
The Packers have to wonder how they will score after watching the high-octane Rams get just six points at Chicago last week. Green Bay has an outside shot at a Wildcard, but too many things have to happen for that to become reality. The Bears clinch the NFC North with a win today or a Vikings loss. But for all intents and purposes, the Bears are the division champions. Have to wonder if it's time for them to start giving some rest to starters with the postseason not far off. The Packers have historically done very well vs the Bears. Just think back to the opening week when they came from way back with an injured Aaron Rodgers to win. The Packers are now 16-5 ATS in their last 21 trips to Chicago. The Packers are also 12-4 ATS in the last 16 overall meetings. I'm going to take the points in today's game with the Packers and see if they can continue to snakebite the Bears. Play Green Bay.
|12-15-18||Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State||13-45||Loss||-110||19 h 25 m||Show|
The 8-5 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders take on the 10-2 Appalachian Sate Mountaineers here today in the New Orleans Bowl. I'm taking Middle Tennessee State here for two simple reasons. You can make a case statistically for either team. However, MTSU is getting a touchdown and I just think that's too much to give their senior QB Brent Stockstill. Stockstill has over 12,000 yards in his college career and plays for his dad, who you know he wants to get this last ever win together for him. Stockstill should be a high draft pick in the NFL this coming year. App State will also be without their head coach Scott Satterfield, who has moved on to the head coaching job at Louisville. Just too many intangibles for Middle Tenn State here today. I'm taking the dog in this one.
|12-15-18||Browns +3 v. Broncos||17-16||Win||100||32 h 50 m||Show|
Denver looked like a team poised at a chance to run the table for the rest of the season. Then they hit the 49ers last week and lost 14-20. Now they have the Browns today and then finish up at Oakland and at home vs the Chargers. The loss last week snapped a three-game spread win streak for Denver. The Broncos have not been good at home cover spreads of late, evidenced by their 3-7-1 ATS mark in their last 11 at Mile High. They are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 December games. The Browns pulled out another win last week, with a home victory over the Panthers, 26-20. That makes three wins in the club's last four games. Both teams ranked right about the same on offense with Denver 15th and Cleveland 16th. Neither team's defense all that good this year, Denver ranked 24th and Cleveland at 31st. I have to think Denver is deflated after losing a game they should have won last week. Cleveland just seems to be happy winning these days. I'm taking the points here today with the Browns.
|12-15-18||Arizona State v. Fresno State -4||20-31||Win||100||14 h 55 m||Show|
Fresno State ended their season with a big win over Boise State, 19-16 as 2.5-point dogs. The Bulldogs won their last three games after a previous loss to Boise State back in November. Fresno has the 44th ranked offense in the country with a nice 80.5% redzone efficiency. They have been in the redzone 52 times this season with 38 TD's and nine FG's. Fresno has one of the best defenses in the country, ranked 17th. The defense has only allowed nine TD's in the redzone this season. Only Mississippi State has allowed less. Arizona State has the 48th ranked offense in the country with a 70.8% redzone efficiency. They have only been in the redzone 46 times with 27 TD's and 13 FG's. Big difference in these teams is on defense where the Sun Devils are ranked 70th and have allowed 24 TD's in 43 trips. Compare that to just the nine TD's Fresno has allowed. Arizona State has not been a good bowl covering team, evidenced by their 2-7 ATS their last nine bowl games. Fresno State is 26-7-1 ATS their last 34 overall games and 16-5 ATS their last 21 vs a winning team. I'm taking the better defensive team here today and that's Fresno State.
|12-15-18||North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State||13-52||Loss||-105||12 h 25 m||Show|
Expect an offensive shootout in this game today as two top offenses collide. Utah State is ranked 11th in offense and has a redzone efficiency rating of 76%. They have been in the redzone 56 times this season and scored 37 TD's. North Texas is ranked 15th and has a 73% redzone efficiency with 59 redzone trips and 37 TD's. These teams are very evenly matched when it comes to offense. One issue here is that the Utah State Aggies haven't done well against winning teams, evidenced by their 4-15 ATS the last 19 times. They are also slowed a bit on the grass, as they have covered just three of the last 10 on the real stuff. Meanwhile, North Texas Mean Green is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. These teams have a bit of history and the dog has covered five of the last seven meetings. Utah State laying 7.5-points is way too much. These teams are evenly matched and I'm taking the points here today. Play North Texas.
|12-13-18||Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs||Top||29-28||Win||100||8 h 26 m||Show|
For me, this game comes down to a few things. First, both teams have running back issues. The Chargers likely without Gordon and Eckler while the Chiefs have no Hunt and Ware is hurt. The Chargers get a big revenge game for that loss earlier this season and that really does make more difference in division games. The Chargers have the much better defense and pass rush. Plus, the Chiefs are coming off a very physical OT game last week vs the Ravens. The Chargers coasted last week vs the Bengals. For me, all the positives line up on the Chargers tonight. Take LA Chargers.
|12-10-18||Vikings v. Seahawks -3||Top||7-21||Win||100||140 h 55 m||Show|
Monday Night Game of the Year: The Vikings are coming off a loss at New England last week, 10-24. The Vikings are 2-2 in their last four games. The Vikings are in 2nd in the NFC North 1.5 games back of the Bears. The Vikings are still in the hunt for a WildCard spot though as they battle a host of other teams. Seattle has the unfortunate luck of being in the NFC West with the Rams.. However, right now they are 7-5 and holding onto one of the Wild Card spots. The Seahawks have won three straight after last week's win over the 49ers, 43-16. The have average over 30 points a game in their last four outings. The Vikings are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record and 2-9 ATS here on Monday nights. The Hawks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six vs the NFC and 22-9-1 ATS in their last32 games in December. Seattle laying 3 or 3.5-points here on Monday night. I love the way the Seahawks are playing and the Vikings on the road again here this week. Bad spot for Minnesota. Take the Seahawks.
|12-09-18||Broncos v. 49ers +4||14-20||Win||100||39 h 47 m||Show|
The Denver Broncos are still in the hunt for a Wildcard spot at 6-6 this season and one of the easiest scheduled left in the NFL. The bad news is that Emmanuel Sanders, their star WR, was hurt in practice and is out with a leg injury. The Broncos are ranked 15th in offense and 25th on defense. In fact, the 49ers rank much better on defense, 11th, then Denver. San Francisco isn't far behind in offense either, ranked 17th. Denver hasn't been the favorite all that often, in fact, just three times in the last 10 weeks. With San Francisco, Cleveland, Oakland and the Chargers left on their schedule, a 9-7 or 10-6 season is definitely in the cards. The 49ers return home today after two tough road games where they were outscored 25-70. I really like the 49ers coach and he knows how to get the most out of his teams. I'm taking the points here at home with San Francisco.
|12-09-18||Colts +4.5 v. Texans||24-21||Win||100||36 h 43 m||Show|
An AFC South matchup here between the division leading Houston Texans and the third place Colts. The Colts are still in the AFC Wildcard hunt at 6-6, but every game is important. After today's game, the Colts play at home against Dallas and the Giants and then finish at Tennessee. None of those will be easy wins. The Texans have the Jets, Eagles and Jaguars left - all very winable games. The Colts season is on the line here and after they were shutout last week, 0-6 at Jacksonville, I expect a much better effort today. Take the Colts.
|12-09-18||Panthers v. Browns +1.5||Top||20-26||Win||100||36 h 43 m||Show|
It's been a roller coaster season for the Browns, firing Hue Jackson earlier in the season and having to endure all those OT games. They have won two of their last three games with wins over the Falcons and Bengals. They did lose last week at Houston, 13-29. Now they return home for two of their last four games. They get the reeling Panthers here today. Remember back to week six when the Panthers trailed the Eagles 0-17 in the fourth quarter? Then they rallied to win that game 21-17. It looked like that could be the turnaround of their season. However, since that win, they are 2-4 both S/U and ATS and on a four-game losing streak. The Panthers lost last week to the Buccaneers, 17-24 as 3-point chalks. Now it looks like Carolina is out in the playoff picture with New Orleans twice on the schedule and Atlanta left. Browns have been tough at home and I'm taking them here today against this Panther team that is chasing its own tail at this point. Play Cleveland.
|12-09-18||Saints v. Bucs +10.5||28-14||Loss||-130||36 h 42 m||Show|
A rematch of week one where these two teams put on a offensive explosion won by the Bucs. Now the Saints travel to Tampa and look for redemption after their worst game of the season last week. Tampa has the top ranked offense in the league with New Orleans not far behind at No 5. Problem is with defense, as the Bucs are 27th and the Saints 15th. The Saints lost last week at Dallas, 10-13, only the third time this year that the Saints have scored less than 30 points. Tampa Bay has gone back to Jameis Winston at QB. It's paid off too, with two straight wins over San Francisco and Carolina. In fact, the defense, which was once the worst in the league, has allowed just 27 points the last two weeks. I look for another high scoring game here this week, but I'm taking the home team. Play Tampa Bay.
|12-09-18||Patriots v. Dolphins +9||33-34||Win||100||36 h 42 m||Show|
It didn't seem that long ago when the Dolphins were 3-0 and went cruising into New England where they took a good old fashioned whipping, 7-38. Since that loss, it's been tough on the Dolphins, with QB Ryan Tannehill hurt and the team going 3-6. They did win last game out at home over Buffalo, 21-17. It was their second cover in a row after a 2-5 ATS string. The Patriots are cruising to another AFC East division title at 9-3. They lead the Dolphins by three games with four to play. The Pats have won two straight games after that loss at Tennessee, 10-34. They beat the Jets and then last week the Vikings, outscoring both teams 51-23. The Pats really have a easy schedule left with Miami, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and the Jets. Their only test will be that game at Pittsburgh which is next week. We might even see a bit of a look ahead spot here today with the Patriots. The home team has really been the play in this series, covering 13 of the last 16 meetings. In addition, New England is 1-5 ATS in their last five trips to Miami. I'm taking the home team here. Play Miami.
|12-08-18||Navy v. Army UNDER 40||10-17||Win||100||87 h 31 m||Show|
Army having a very good year with eight wins. THey also were the only team to hold Oklahoma under 30 points this year. The Cadets have won seven in a row since that seven-point loss at Oklahoma. Navy is off a loss at Tulane, 28-29, covering the 7-point line. The Middies have lost eight of their last nine games with their only win coming two weeks ago at home vs Tulsa. Navy has been a good under team in December, going 4-14 O/U. The Midshipmen are also 6-13 O/U in their last 19 games on grass. Army has also been good under team in December with a 3-13 O/U mark. Army also was off last week and when they have had the week off they are 5-21 O/U their last 26. These teams have gone under in 16 of the last 21 meetings and that's what I look for here today. Play the UNDER.
|12-06-18||Jaguars v. Titans -4||9-30||Win||100||44 h 57 m||Show|
Disappointing season for Jacksonville as they sit at 4-8 and last in the AFC South. This despite their win last week over the Colts, 6-0. The win snapped a seven game losing streak for the Jags. Jacksonville still has the 5th ranked defense, it's the offense that has been poor at 22nd. Tennessee was in the AFC South race until the last few weeks. The Titans are now 6-6 and tied for second, 3-games back of the Texans. The Titans did come back last week and beat the Jets, 26-22. That snapped a two game losing streak for Tennessee. Tennessee is now 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games and 6-2 ATS the last eight vs the AFC South. The Titans are 4-1-1 ATS the last six vs Jacksonville. In addition, the home team is 5-2-1 ATS the last eight in this series. Take Tennessee here on Thursday.
|12-03-18||Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45||13-28||Win||100||8 h 32 m||Show|
The Redskins look to get back on the winning track after back-to-back losses to Houston and then last week at Dallas, 23-31. The Skins have been a good under team this year, evidenced by their 5-6 O/U mark. Washington is 1-6 O/U in their last seven against a team with a losing record and 3-9 O/U their last 12 on grass. In addition, the Resksins are 2-5 their last seven road games. Philly has gone under in its last two games, a 7-48 loss at New Orleans and then last week in a 25-22 win at home against the Giants. The Eagles are now 1-5 O/U in their last six home games. With Alex Smith gone at QB for the Redskins, I look for a more conservative approach from Washington tonight. I'm going with the UNDER here.